The Downballot

The Downballot

The Downballot podcast is dedicated to the thousands of elections below the presidency, from Senate to city council. With more than 20 years of experience analyzing U.S. elections, we provide unparalleled insight into congressional, state, and local races nationwide. Tune in every Thursday morning for one-of-a-kind coverage of these key contests. www.the-downballot.com

Episodes

August 9, 2025 39 mins

On the latest episode of Nir & Rupar, our live weekly video show, David Nir of The Downballot and Aaron Rupar of Public Notice dive into Donald Trump’s multi-front efforts to rig the 2026 midterms—and the many obstacles he faces.

If you haven’t yet subscribed to Public Notice, which offers insightful and independent commentary on U.S. politics and media, just click the button below:

David and Aaron discuss:

* Why Republicans face few ...

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What's it like to have to indefinitely uproot your life in the face of thuggish legal threats so that you can help save democracy as we know it? Texas state Rep. Mihaela Plesa returns to The Downballot podcast to give us a rare inside look at the remarkable decision by Democrats to flee the state in an effort to block Republicans from passing an egregious new gerrymander.

Plesa hammers the GOP for prioritizing partisan gain over cri...

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July 31, 2025 50 mins

On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, Ally Mutnick, a senior congressional reporter for Punchbowl, joins us to run down the ins and outs of mid-decade redistricting. We go through the Texas GOP's newly proposed map district by district to see how Republicans are targeting five Democratic seats—and discuss how Democrats might try to block the plan by breaking quorum in the state legislature.

Then we look at the many other...

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The big boss is (almost) here: Former Gov. Roy Cooper is reportedly set to run for North Carolina's open Senate seat, and we're talking all about it on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain why Cooper is the Democrats' No. 1 recruit of the 2026 midterms.

We also talk with Brian Lemek, the executive director of Defend the Vote, about how his organization helps elect candidates eager...

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Texas Republicans already gerrymandered their maps half to death, but Donald Trump is pushing them to go even further. California Gov. Gavin Newsom, however, has proposed a tit-for-tat plan that would make the GOP pay a price, and we're exploring its potential on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Are Newsom's ideas legally feasible—and can he sell them to voters? A swing of as many as five House seats could depend on i...

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Zohran Mamdani's stunning upset in last month's primary is still reverberating, which is why we were eager to talk with his pollster, Jane Rayburn of Workbench Strategy, on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast to understand just how he pulled it off. Rayburn pulls back the curtain to explain how her firm captured the sentiments of a radically reshaped electorate, why Mamdani wanted a two-person race, and when she knew he c...

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June 26, 2025 40 mins

Zohran Mamdani pulled off one of the most astonishing upsets of all time on Tuesday, so we've devoted this week's entire episode of The Downballot podcast to understanding how it happened and what it all means.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard discuss how Mamdani drew out new voters and forged an unlikely multi-ethnic coalition through his singular emphasis on affordability—a stark contrast to Andrew Cuomo's old-school campaign (o...

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We're diving deep into New York City's many-layered Democratic primary for mayor on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Polls keep showing Andrew Cuomo in the lead, but is it big enough to stop a late surge by Zohran Mamdani? Will Brad Lander's arrest by federal agents give him a last-minute jolt? And will we see any more alliances like the recent Mamdani-Lander cross-endorsement? We explore all these questions and many ...

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June 12, 2025 40 mins

The 2025 primaries are underway! On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, we're recapping all the action from Tuesday's elections in New Jersey and previewing next week's contests in Virginia. As per usual, there are also special elections to discuss, including a monster Democratic overperformance in Oklahoma.

We've also got the bizarre case of Republican Rep. Mark Green, who just announced his resignation … while reportedl...

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June 5, 2025 61 mins

We've been subject to endless hot takes about last year's elections, but Catalist has much more compelling answers. CEO Michael Frias joins us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast to explore his firm's detailed new report, What Happened in 2024, that uses carefully assembled voter data to understand how things really went down.

Frias explains why greater turnout might not have benefited Democrats and doesn't flinch from ...

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May 29, 2025 55 mins

Republicans have been trying to make it harder for ordinary citizens to effect change at the ballot box for many years, and their latest effort has now washed ashore in the Sunshine State. This week on The Downballot podcast, Amy Keith, the executive director of Common Cause Florida, joins us to explain how a new GOP bill would impose wild new restrictions on the ballot initiative process, including making it a felony if grandma co...

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Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Campbell has an extraordinary story to tell, and she's sharing it with us on this week's edition of The Downballot podcast. Despite an early life dominated by tragedy, including the death of her twin brother while incarcerated, Campbell rose to become the state's top law enforcement official. She explains how she's used her office both to fight for her constituents—on matters from housing affor...

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May 15, 2025 49 mins

After bursting onto the scene as the newest swing state just a few years ago, Georgia will be a top battleground in next year's midterms up and down the ballot. Joining us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast is Charlie Bailey, the new chair of the Georgia Democratic Party, to share his insights on 2026. Bailey tells us about the most critical tasks he faces in building up the party and shines a spotlight on key races—i...

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At long, long, long last, Republicans have abandoned their effort to overturn the election for North Carolina's Supreme Court—which took place all the way back in November. We've closely followed every twist and turn, so naturally we're exploring what it all means, both for Democrats and democracy, on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast.

And joining us as our guest is Matt Hildreth, executive director of Rural Organizing, ...

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May 1, 2025 53 mins

The Virginia GOP is in the midst of a meltdown after the state's governor demanded a fellow Republican running for lieutenant governor quit the race—even though he's the only candidate running. We're examining the mess on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, as well as another big story out of the Old Dominion: longtime Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly's retirement and what it means for his perch atop the House Oversight Co...

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April 24, 2025 42 mins

The Downballot is thrilled to announce the publication of the newest edition of our most widely used—and beloved—set of data: our calculations of the 2024 presidential election results for all 435 congressional districts. Naturally, we're talking all about it on this week's edition of our podcast, including why it's such a herculean undertaking and what the numbers tell us. Most important of all, the data points the way to the race...

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April 17, 2025 47 mins

Philip Bump, for many years an important voice at the Washington Post, joins us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast to share our mutual love of nerding out on numbers. Philip explains how he translates abstract data for a broad audience, going into detail on some surprising findings regarding turnout and special elections. He also explores how the second Trump administration differs from the first and concludes that pu...

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April 10, 2025 57 mins

Liberals won a massive victory in last week's pivotal battle for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, but the public saw precious little polling data that projected a blowout. Joining us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast is pollster Margie Omero of GBAO, whose internal polling nailed Judge Susan Crawford's 10-point margin. Democrats hedged their bets, though, by modeling two different electorates—one redder and one bluer. Om...

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April 3, 2025 40 mins

Tuesday night was a massive triumph for the forces of democracy, from coast to coast and up and down the ballot. We're recapping all of the action in this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, starting with Wisconsin's marquee race for the state Supreme Court and the very real possibility that Elon Musk's aggressive intrusion into the contest wound up helping Susan Crawford preserve liberals' narrow majority.

Co-hosts David Nir ...

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The crazy flips just keep on coming! On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard drill down into James Malone's astonishing victory in Tuesday's special election in Pennsylvania—one that saw him capture a seat Democrats had never held. They also preview next week's races in Florida, where Republicans are suddenly sweating another special election, and, of course, Wisconsin, which will hold a...

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