January 8, 2025 • 41 mins
In Episode 70 of the Fuel Pulse Show, Erik Bjornstad provides a comprehensive analysis of the upcoming winter weather forecast across different U.S. regions. Following last year's unusually warm winter, meteorologists predict varying conditions: the South and Lower Midwest expect above-average temperatures until February, the Northeast and Upper Midwest anticipate alternating cold and mild periods, while the West faces early snow followed by rain.
The forecast is influenced by three major factors: La Niña conditions, Polar Vortex patterns, and warmer-than-usual Gulf and Pacific water temperatures. The episode concludes with practical advice for managing diesel fuel in cold weather conditions.
What You'll Learn:
- Detailed regional weather predictions for different parts of the United States
- How La Niña differs from El Niño and affects winter weather patterns
- The role of the Polar Vortex in determining winter temperatures
- Impact of ocean water temperatures on continental weather systems
- Practical tips for managing diesel fuel in cold weather conditions
- Understanding cloud point temperature and its importance
- How to prepare for and prevent fuel gelling problems
Ideas Worth Sharing:
Here are three notable quotes from the podcast episode:
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"The winter of 2023 to 2024 ended up being notably warm and mild across much of the United States. In fact, several warmth records were set and you had below-normal snowfall in many regions of the country."
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"When you have a strong La Niña, that gives you more extreme weather patterns... the U.S. might experience colder and stormier conditions than usual."
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"It really just illustrates how interconnected our planet's climate system is where anomalies that happen in one part of the ocean... can lead to significant weather changes that affect an entire continent."
Resources Mentioned:
- Winter weather data
- La Nina weather pattern
- Polar vortex meteorological data
- Cloud point temperature guidelines for diesel fuel
- Erik Bjornstad: LinkedIn
Show Notes:
[00:00:00] - Show introduction and podcast overview
[00:01:00] - Introduction to winter weather forecast topic
[00:02:00] - Review of Winter 2023-2024 conditions
[00:04:00] - Explanation of El Niño and its effects
[00:08:00] - Regional forecast overview
[00:09:00] - Northeast and Upper Midwest predictions
[00:14:00] - Southern and Central Plains forecast
[00:18:00] - Mountain West and West Coast outlook
[00:21:00] - Three major influencing factors
[00:22:00] - La Niña system explanation
[00:27:00] - Polar Vortex discussion
[00:29:00] - Gulf and Pacific water temperatures
[00:33:00] - Regional summary of predictions
[00:35:00] - Diesel fuel management tips for winter
[00:39:00] - Episode wrap-up and closing
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Welcome to the Fuel Pulse Showpodcast, where we talk about all
(00:03):
things fuel for all kinds of people.
I'm your host, Eric Bjornstad,and I'll be your guide through
this ever changing world of fuel.
Here at the podcast, we liketo talk about all things fuel.
all the things related to all thedifferent kinds of fuel that we
rely on, both at work and at home.
Plus, we talk about everything relatedto all of the things that use that
(00:26):
fuel, both at work and at home.
That means the Fuel Pulse Showpodcast is really for everyone.
And so, what are we going totalk about on today's episode?
Well, winter just recently began,And we usually like to have something
out before the start of winter aboutwhat they're expecting to see as far
(00:49):
as winter weather goes across allthe different parts of the country.
Just like we typically do somethingaround April or May, talking about
what the upcoming winter hurricaneseason is going to be like and why
they think it's going to be like that.
Now, I'm not exactly sure when this isgoing to end up being published, but
if you see this after December and youhear references to dates from earlier in
(01:14):
the calendar, you'll know why that is.
So, today we're going to talk aboutwhat the National Weather Service
and other organizations think isgoing to happen across the country as
far as winter weather is concerned.
What's going to happen in New England,the Deep South, the Midwest, the Mountain
West, and over on the West Coast.
(01:34):
So, we'll talk a little bit aboutwhat they think the winter weather's
going to look like in Decemberversus January and February.
And as we are want to do, we'll tryto explain the major factors that they
say are playing into why they think thewinter weather is going to be like that.
(01:55):
So let's get started.
Now before we talk about what theythink is going to happen this year,
let's set the stage by rememberingwhat winter was like last year.
The winter of 2023 to 2024
ended up being notably warm and mildacross much of the United States.
(02:16):
In fact, several warmth records wereset and you had below normal snowfall
in many regions of the country.
Especially for areas in the upper Midwest,like up around Chicago, Illinois, that
area, there was They saw their warmestwinter on record, or for Chicago, it
was one of their top five warmest.
(02:37):
And much of the country saw a lotless snow than they usually do.
Now, meteorologists think thatthis was due to the strong,
what they call the El Nino.
conditions, strong El Nino conditionsthat influenced weather patterns
across the country, really.
For example over in Syracuse,New York, which by late February,
(02:58):
they're usually approaching 90inches of snowfall for the winter.
Last year, or rather February of2024, they were only at 40 inches.
Now, the biggest reason for thiswas, again, the presence of that
strong El Nino system, which led towarmer air masses dominating much
(03:19):
of the continental United States.
And so much of the country saw significantstretches of the season where they were
experiencing conditions more akin to fallor spring than normal winter weather.
And that reality, that's basicallywhat they predicted at the start.
They knew that there was going to bethe presence of this strong El Nino
(03:40):
system, so they reasoned that itspresence was going to warm things
up, and that is what happened.
Now, why does it matter?
Why does El Nino matter?
Well, El Nino is a climate patternthat's characterized by the warming of
sea surface temperatures in the centraland the eastern tropical pacific.
(04:03):
And this water warming, it affectsthe atmosphere and affects global
weather patterns around the world.
And it often leads to noticeable shiftsin winter weather for the United States.
Now, how does this happen?
How does El Nino typically leadto warmer winter temperatures?
Well, first of all, it affects Whenthe Pacific waters are warming,
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as they do during El Nino, thatinfluences both the position and
the strength of that jet stream.
Jet stream, in case you didn'tpay attention in high school, the
jet stream is a high altitude aircurrent that flows from west to east.
to east, and this current will carryweather systems along with it, meaning
(04:51):
that if the jet stream's behaviorchanges that is going to strongly
influence the behavior of those weatherpatterns, not just in the United
States, but really around the world.
So when you have an El Nino event, likethey did during 2023 2024, the Pacific
jet stream often will actually move.
(05:12):
It will shift further south, andthen when it reaches the United
States, it's going to extend furthereastward toward the United States.
And this altered path, what happens is isit allows for the presence of more mild
and moist air from the Pacific to flowover parts of North America, particularly
(05:33):
the Southern and Western United States.
And what that ends up doing ismaking the winter temperatures
warmer and milder in those areas.
So that's number one.
The second effect that the El Nino hasis it reduces Arctic air incursions.
So, the jet stream is shiftingmore southerly, right?
(05:56):
And because it does that, that actuallywill block or reduce the southward flow of
the really, really cold, frigid Arctic airthat normally comes down from the Arctic
into the United States during the winter.
And that means that during an El Ninoevent, like we had this past winter,
areas that might normally experiencecold, Arctic conditions, they end up
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seeing milder winter temperatures.
Remember, many times we get cold weatherbecause that really cold air from the
Arctic comes down further south overthe United States, but El Nino ends up
shifting the jet stream and that movementof the jet stream acts as almost like a
block to the movement of this frigid airso that it doesn't end up getting , as
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cold as it normally does in the winter.
Transcribed And then numberthree, presence of an El Nino
system increases your cloud coverand increases precipitation.
So El Nino can lead toincreased cloud cover and more
precipitation in certain regions.
And , what effect that ends up having isit ends, that actually ends up moderating
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the temperature so it doesn't get as cold.
See, clouds, when you have a lot ofclouds in the atmosphere, that actually
acts as an insulating layer and ittraps heat, especially at night.
And because it traps heat, thatkeeps the temperatures from
dropping too low, keeps them warmer.
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So, that was last year, that was lastwinter, which was an unusually warm
winter for much of the United States.
And that was because of thepresence of that strong El Nino
system that had those effects onthe weather in the United States.
Now, let's see what they'resaying for this year.
They're saying it might look a littlebit like last year's, unusually warm
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in many parts of the country, but theystill think there's going to be pockets
of really cold weather in certain areas.
So that's the general summary.
But, we know that the winterweather is going to be different
in different areas of the country.
It's not all going to be thesame across the entire country.
So, what we want to do is, we're goingto start in one area of the country.
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We're going to talk about whatthey're likely to expect this winter.
And maybe just a little bitabout why they're expecting that.
And so what we're going to do is we'regoing to start with the northeast and
the upper Midwest Great Lakes regions.
Illinois, Indiana, Ohio.
What's this coming winter likelyto hold in store for them?
Well, meteorologists think it's verylikely that this coming winter is going
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to alternate between, on the one hand,having some really cold spells, and then
alternate to unseasonably warm, And that'sgoing to happen, they think, in areas of
the country that are used to having snow.
Specifically, theNortheast and the Midwest.
See, most areas in the Northeast,they're going to end up receiving,
(08:59):
actually receiving more snow thisseason Which isn't hard to do if you
remember the places like Upstate NewYork and you know, remember Syracuse.
Those places had unusually lowlevels of snowfall last year.
Well, they think that's notgoing to be the same this year.
They think they're going to getamounts of snowfall that they're
more used to having, let's say.
(09:20):
And then the same thing they thinkis gonna be true for the Midwest.
They're gonna have more snowin areas of the Midwest like
Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
However, that doesn't mean they'resaying it's just gonna snow all winter
long and, you know, bury people.
No.
What they're saying is that These periodsof snow are going to be broken up by
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pauses in the cold, wintry weather,especially in the middle part of the
winter, as remember, that milder air fromthe Pacific is going to be flowing in
across the country, warming things up.
And it's really hard to have a frigidcold snap with milder air, right?
So, what is this forecast going tolook like in the areas of New England?
(10:03):
Northeast, upper Midwest, as we movethrough the calendar months of winter.
This is what we're going to dofor each area of the country.
We're going to summarize what theythink is most likely to happen, which
we've already talked a little bit about.
And then we're going to try and painta picture of what the weather is
likely to look like in that regionas we move month by month through
(10:24):
to the end of winter towards fall.
So, start with December, firstmonth of meteorological winter.
They're predicting for thenortheast and the midwest.
They're predicting briefblasts of cold air that trigger
that famous lake effect snow.
Again, this is the opposite of whatthey saw last December, when they
really didn't have much lake effectweather going on, in places like Buffalo
(10:49):
Upstate New York, Michigan Lake area.
I mean, I know it's ironic if you've beenpaying attention to if you're a football
fan, you know that Just recently before wefilmed this last Sunday buffalo got buried
under snow And they had to hire people tocome dig it out Well, I think that kind
of fits into what they're predicting briefblasts of cold air brief blasts of lots
(11:12):
of snow but Then it's going to alternateand they're going to get warmer weather.
That's going to really warm things upSo, moving into January of next year
some big changes are going to unfoldduring the opening weeks of 2025
because meteorologists are predictingthat there's going to be a new weather
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pattern in the northeast and themidwest that's going to promote milder
air and less snow across the wholeeastern half of the United States.
So, we've gone from frigidair and snow in December.
to now warmer winter weather that's goingto melt that snow in many of those places.
And that's going to have aninteresting effect on areas of the
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east where they do a lot of skiing.
Some people, when you talk tometeorologists they say, , the
heart of the ski season might bea little bit rough in the east.
You know, even in ski resortswhere they're used to having
a healthy base of snow.
They will have gotten snow up tothis point, but then suddenly it's
(12:16):
all going to start warming up.
And a lot of those snowy slopesare going to turn icy because the
snow is going to melt during thedaytime and then freeze overnight.
So that's what they think for January,February, they're going to see a backend
surge back to winter temperatures.
And they're thinking that there'sgoing to be potential for multiple
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snow storms everywhere from the greatlakes, Ohio Valley, and then all of.
through the Northeast.
And this is where, when you talk aboutThe risk of snow, you have snow, and then
you have another thing coming alongsideit, what they call the polar vortex.
Now we're going to talk more about thata little bit later, but what that's going
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to do is you're going to get back tohaving good ski season in the Northeast
and Atlantic for the rest of the winter.
In fact, when it's all said and done,they think that major places like New
York City, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh,they're actually going to end up having
more snow this year than last year, inpart due to what they think is going
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to be a particularly snowy Februaryfor those areas, places like Chicago,
Buffalo, they may not only have moresnow than last winter, but they also have
a chance for snowfalls for the season.
Ending up being greater than thehistorical average for those areas.
So, that is the Northeast and theMidwest, or the Upper Midwest.
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What about the South?
and the Central Plains, the SouthernGulf Coast states in the Central Plains.
Well, for these areas, while theNortheast and the skiing areas are
getting blasted by that frigid air,winter is going to get off to a warmer
start for a lot of people who live alongthose Gulf Coast states and into the
(14:07):
plains, , Texas and Oklahoma, those areas.
And meteorologists predict that thatparticular phenomenon is probably going
to last through December, January, intoFebruary, which, you know, ends up being
much of the upcoming winter season.
Unseasonably warm winter weather forthe South and the Central Plains.
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So, from December through February, in theSouth, The Central Southern Plains and the
Mississippi Valley and then all the way upthrough the Ohio and the Tennessee Valley.
All of those areas will be thewarmest areas of the country compared
to the typical winter temperaturesthat those areas usually get.
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Meteorologists think thewinter temperatures for these
areas will be the warmest.
may end up running three to fourdegrees above their historical averages.
And, that's going to help familieswith like, heating bills, right?
Because they're not going to haveto pay as much to heat their homes
during this winter for the familiesand the businesses in those areas.
So, That's good news for them.
(15:12):
But that's not to say that those areasaren't ever going to get cold this winter.
Because what they're also predicting isthat what could happen in February is
there could be a surge of cold air thatdelivers sub freezing temperatures to
the Gulf Coast and even parts of Florida.
They say that if this happensit's most likely to happen in
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February, although we don't know.
They're even saying it's onlygoing to be part of February.
They think the month as a whole is stillprojected to be milder than normal.
So it appears that for these parts ofthe country, the Gulf coast and the
plains up through the Mississippi andTennessee valleys, for them, winter
is going to be warmer than usual,
so you say when, youknow, warmer this winter.
(15:57):
Great.
That's good news.
Well, it might not be all good newsfor these areas because You have
widespread warm weather in those areas.
And what that's going to end updoing though, is it's going to end up
bringing along with it drier conditions.
along the Gulf Coast states.
And what that's going to cause, theythink, is they actually think that this
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winter is going to see some droughtconditions in the Gulf Coast and in
the majority of the Great Plains, eveninto portions of the Rocky Mountains.
But when they do break that drought,When they do get rain or storms,
whatever rain or storms they do happento get, they're probably going to be
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more severe and more powerful thanusual because of that milder weather.
But also, very importantly, becausethey're going to be seeing warm, humid
air coming up from the Gulf of Mexico.
All that's gonna kind of mix together.
And so, in the Gulf Coast states andin the the plain states, central
plain states, warmer weather thanusual this winter, less snow.
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and more powerful storms which maybe few and far between, but you'll
know them when they hit, so to speak.
Okay, what about the MountainWest and the West Coast?
So in the western and mountainwest parts of the country,
fall has been unusually warm.
In fact, summer leading intofall has been really hot.
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I mean, you look at Phoenix, Arizona.
All summer long, Phoenix, Arizona,and that area of the country has been
roasting under these really hot, extendedtemperatures for the entire summer.
, Las Vegas, Nevada, one day thispast summer, 120 degrees Fahrenheit.
And Las Vegas also had five consecutivedays where they reached 115 degrees.
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115 degrees, that'snever, happened before.
Well, this fall, Mountain Westplaces like Denver, they're seeing
temperatures, or they have seentemperatures that are consistently
at least 10 degrees hotter than theirnormal highs for a typical year.
The state of Wyoming, as a whole, averagedmore than five degrees warmer for its
(18:15):
high in September than a typical year.
Arizona, seven degrees warmer than normal.
But, For the winter, meteorologistsare saying that warm trend
is not likely to continue.
They think that December, they'regoing to get more rain, it's going
to cool things down, and that's evenbefore winter really gets ramped up.
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It's going to rain more thanusual in December in the
West and the mountain West.
And what that's going to mean is lotsof snow in the mountains for skiing.
In the Mountain West, not necessarilyin ski areas of California, though.
California's time for snowis going to be coming just a
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little bit later in the season.
More like January and February.
Of course, Southern Californiais not going to get snow.
You know, LA and San Diego,they're not going to get snow.
They're just going to begetting rained on a lot.
But the Northwest?
And Northern California areas aredefinitely going to see substantial
snowfalls just later in the winter season.
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So, for the Mountain West and theWest, we have snow in December
for certain areas, lots of rain inDecember and January for other areas.
In February, They're saying there'slikely going to be, the weather pattern
is likely going to shift and it's goingto make those northern areas colder.
The Pacific Northwest and theRockies, they're going to see plenty
(19:41):
of storms in February, but they'reno longer going to be snowstorms.
They're just going to be rainstorms.
And so what that means for thoseski areas, remember out in the
Northeast, they're getting plentyof snow for skiing out there.
But the opposite is going to be truefor the Midwest and, excuse me, for the
Mountain West in Northern California.
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They're not going to getsnow later in the season.
They're going to get more rain.
That means normal ski areas that arepopular in like, the mountains of
California, Arizona, Northern NewMexico, ski season is probably for
those areas going to be ending a littlebit earlier this year than normal.
(20:23):
So, now that we know what they thinkis going to happen, now we get to
ask the question why they thinkit's most likely to be that way.
And we keep saying, most likely, possibly,because all these things that we're
talking about, they're all possible.
predictions.
They could end up being wrong about this.
They're, they're, they are their bestprediction based on what they think
(20:44):
they know about what they're seeing.
Just like for this pastpresidential election, right?
You have a polling website like 538.
com.
538 has its election predictor.
And they said, you know, accordingto the polls, Donald Trump wins 530
out of a thousand general electionsimulations or in another simulation,
Kamala Harris wins 502 versus.
(21:07):
497 for Trump.
They're all just predictionsbased on the best interpretation
of the information available.
And so, meteorologists are sayingthat there are three big factors
that are the biggest things theythink are influencing the climate.
What's likely to happen and thesethree things are number one presence
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of a La Nina, not El Nino, but LaNina weather system, presence of a
polar vortex, and then number three,the water temperatures in the Gulf
of Mexico being warmer than normal.
So let's talk about each of these.
First one we have to talk about is onethat you might have heard of, La Nina,
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which is the little sister of the morefamous El Nino that we already mentioned.
Now, meteorologists always look atpotential development of an El Nino
weather pattern earlier in the year,
usually in spring and summer, asthat's the thing that typically
affects hurricane season.
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And then later in the year, iswhen they look to see if a La
Nina system is going to develop.
And that is, if it does, that's goingto affect winter weather conditions.
So, we start by saying forecastersfrom the National Oceanic Atmospheric
Association, or NOAA, They're expectinga La Nina climate pattern to form in the
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Pacific in the coming months of winter.
La Nina is where the water temperaturesnear the equator in the eastern part
of the Pacific Ocean, they're notwarmer than normal, they're actually
colder, cooler, below the historicalaverage for an extended period of time.
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And when that happens, that influencesthe weather patterns across all of
North America, including influencingthe trajectory of snowstorms.
Now, these two brother sistersystems, La Nina El Niño.
They kind of work in oppositeways from each other.
El Niño relies on warmer than averagewater temperatures, which ends up leading
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to more storms forming in the Pacific.
But also, El Niño contributes tomore wind shear in the, way over in
the Atlantic region, which actuallycuts down on storms forming there.
Systems develop in one part of the world.
This is an example of how systemsdeveloping in one part of the world
affect what happens with the weatherin another part of the world.
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So, El Niño does that.
La Niña, on the other hand, formsnot when the water temperature is
warmer, but when the water is colder.
And so, when meteorologists detectthat the waters are at least 0.
9 degrees Fahrenheit below the historicalaverage, they declare that, oh, we have
a, an, la, a, excuse me, we have a LaNina weather system in effect, but you
(24:05):
can have a weak one or a strong one.
And La Niña affects weather differentlydepending on whether it is weak or strong.
When you have a strong La Niña, thatgives you more extreme weather patterns.
For example, when you have astrong La Niña system, the U.
S.
might experience colder and stormierconditions than usual in La Niña.
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The Northwest, , the area close to thePacific, Washington, Oregon, Northern
California, while at the same time,seeing drier and warmer conditions in
the Southwest, Arizona, New Mexico,and the Southern United States, the
Gulf Coast, sees less precipitation,less Which increases their risk of
drought, and we see end up seeing allthis because when you have a strong La
(24:53):
Nina system, that leads to stronger andmore persistent shifts in that Pacific
jet stream that we talked about, andthat affects global weather systems.
When you have a strong La Nina system,these shifts in the jet stream lead
to greater deviations from averageweather patterns, which results in
more pronounced areas of dryness.
(25:16):
Wetness, heat, or cold indifferent regions of the country.
So, different regions of thecountry may see weather that
they're used to in terms of, if it'susually cold, well, oh, it's cold.
But, it's going to be really cold.
Areas that tend to be wet, oh look,it's raining or it's snowing again.
But, they're getting a lot more of it.
(25:38):
So again, more extreme weatherconditions in those areas.
If you will, you could say amplifiedseasonal weather extremes in all
these different areas of the country.
And in fact, if you have a good enoughmemory, you go back to 2010 and 2011.
There was a strong El Nino, that'sexactly what happened in the country.
(25:58):
Now, if you have a week, El Niño system.
Again, as you would expect, a weak elLa Niña system, excuse me, gives less
pronounced effects, but generally thesame kind of pattern as a strong La
Niña, although because it's weaker, theimpacts on temperature and precipitation
are milder and less consistent.
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So, what is all of thisgoing to look like for us?
Well, for the upcoming winter, itlooks, they are predicting a La
Nina system is going to be there.
And so it's going to affecttemperatures in the south.
It's going to be the thing that'sgoing to be keeping the southern
United States warmer than usual.
How?
How is that going to happen?
(26:40):
They expect that the combination of aLa Nina system directing storm tracks
across the Northern United States.
So it's going to be doing that.
Number one, number two, you're going tohave these above average Gulf of Mexico
water temperatures, and you're goingto get periodic influxes of warm, mild
Pacific air into the Plains and the East.
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And the combination of all thosethings together is going to restrict
the persistence of cold air in theSouthern United States, basically
making it warmer than usual.
Okay.
So.
Thing number one that they thinkwe're going to see is La Nina.
Thing number two is Polar Vortex.
(27:22):
Okay, so this Polar Vortex thing,Typically, in any given year, it
affects winter weather by sendingwaves of cold air, or extremely
cold air, down from the Arctic,down into the mid latitude regions.
And when you say mid latituderegions, that means the United States.
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And so what matters when they talkabout whether, how it's going to
affect the weather in the UnitedStates, what matters is whether this
polar vortex is strong and stable.
or weak and unstable.
So when you have a strong, stablepolar vortex, what happens is,
colder arctic air actually stayscontained closer to the poles.
(28:08):
And so, what that ends up doing is thatleads to milder winter conditions in mid
latitude areas like the United States.
But, if the polar vortex weakens orbecomes distorted, that allows that
frigid arctic air to spill southward.
And so you get Cold, severe coldsnaps along with it, and heavy
(28:31):
snowfalls in mid latitude areas.
So, strong polar vortexmeans milder winter.
Weak polar vortex means colder winter.
And based on data from previous wintersthat had a similar setup as we're seeing
right now, they think that February,the month of February, is the most
(28:54):
probable time frame for the polar vortexto kind of weaken a little bit and
allow some of that bitterly cold airto come down into the United States.
Okay, third influencing factor, warmwater in the Gulf and the Pacific.
Now, I know that we said something earlierabout a La Nina system forming because
(29:18):
Pacific waters were colder, not warmer.
So stay with me here and I'llexplain this, because it sounds
like we're contradicting each other.
let's explain.
Okay, the temperature of the waterin the Gulf of Mexico and the
northern and northeastern Pacific.
Those are all factors that are goingto affect our weather this winter.
(29:38):
They're expecting the watertemperatures in the Gulf of Mexico to
be higher than historical averages.
I know, shocking, right?
When you have warmer water in the Gulf,That translates to mild air being present
for the eastern and central United States.
Meanwhile, at the same time asthat, over in the Pacific, they're
(30:01):
expecting warmer than average watertemperatures in the northern Pacific.
Now remember, we said La Nina isgoing to form because of cooler water
than normal in the central Pacific.
Well, different part of the Pacific Ocean.
The northern Pacific, the water isgoing to be warmer, and that's going to
alter the storm tracks that are goingto form, especially ones that affect
(30:25):
the west coast of the United States.
Now, let's explain that a littlemore because it still sounds
a little bit confusing, okay?
So, When the northern Pacific Ocean watersare warmer than average, like they're
expecting them to be, and at the sametime you have cooler water in the central
Pacific water, so remember warm water,cool water, that, the combination of those
(30:50):
two things can significantly influenceatmospheric conditions and change the
paths that storms take during the winter.
The warm water, cold watersetup that we have, that ends up
changing that jet stream, remember,the high altitude air current.
So the warmer waters in the northernPacific cause the jet stream to start
(31:14):
to buckle a little bit, if you will,and shift, move up further north.
And when that jet stream movesfurther north that's going to direct
more storms towards the west coast.
Potentially giving them morerainfall and more storm activity.
And then as that jet stream shiftsnorth because of that warm northern
(31:37):
Pacific water it's going to affectweather patterns across the rest
of the United States as well.
For example, when you have a morenortherly storm track on the west
coast, that's going to lead to drierconditions in the southern part
of the United States and wetterconditions in the northern part.
So essentially, you have this interplaybetween Ocean water temperatures
(32:00):
and atmospheric conditions.
You have this kind ofcomplicated interplay.
I mean, I've been talking about, it'sgoing to be warm here, cold here,
dry here, this is happening here,it's pushing this here,, if you're
not a professional meteorologist,that all sounds really complicated.
And it really just illustrates howinterconnected our planet's climate
(32:22):
system is where anomalies that happenin one part of the ocean, in one ocean
over here, can lead to significantweather changes that affect an entire
continent all the way over here on anentirely different part of the world.
Alright, so, let's summarize whatthey think is going to happen.
(32:43):
They're saying the winter outlookis going to be different for
different areas of the country.
In fact, maybe markedly differentstories for these different areas.
Okay, so, to review.
The South and the Lower Midwest Plains.
So, South.
Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Louisiana,and then Texas and Oklahoma.
(33:04):
Those areas, they think, are going to bewarmer than usual at least into February.
Then, in that last part of winter,they might get some snowstorms.
And, if they do, those snowstormsare likely to be pretty severe.
Okay, so that's the South.
The Northeast and the Upper Midwest, sowe'll talk about New England, Upstate New
(33:26):
York, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana.
Winter's gonna start cold, frigid, snowy,cold for the first part of the winter.
Then things are gonna thaw out with warmerthan usual temperatures in January until
they freeze up again after February.
Now The west and the mountain westparts of the country, lots of storms in
(33:50):
December, plenty of snow in the mountains,rain in other parts of that area.
By February, the weather pattern isgoing to shift, so that areas that are
used to getting snow, like NorthernCalifornia and Colorado, are going
to be getting rained on instead.
So, all in all, this forecastseems to be a little bit different
(34:13):
from the past couple years becausethey're not projecting months on
end of frigid cold temperatures.
Now, granted, they didn't last year.
We're really talking about the yearbefore that and the year before that.
This forecast seems to bea little bit different.
Now, sure, there are going to beplenty of areas of the country
that will get plenty cold.
So, if you happen to manage or bein charge of stored diesel fuel,
(34:38):
you're going to want to continuedoing your due diligence just like
you should be doing every year.
You're monitoring thosewinter temperatures.
And if you live in an area,say, in the upper Midwest, okay,
you probably already know this.
And the reason that you're going towant to keep an eye on these things is
because you're trying to prevent gellingproblems in your stored diesel fuel.
(34:59):
Now, we've talked about this phenomenonon a number of different past episodes,
so we're not going to go into massiveamounts of detail here, but in case
you missed it up to this point, thisis the down and dirty summary of
what you'll want to monitor, okay?
Number one, start by knowing yourdiesel fuel's cloud of Remember,
(35:21):
cloud point is the temperaturewhere enough of the paraffin wax
content of the fuel has becomeinsoluble because the weather's cold.
And it's coming out as crystals sothat you can see a little bit of cloud,
a little bit of haze in the fuel.
Now, your fuel supplier may beable to tell you the specific cloud
point temperature for your fuel.
(35:43):
But if they don't happen to know it, youYou can probably assume that it's going to
be somewhere around 18 degrees Fahrenheit.
Okay.
So number one, start with knowingyour fuel's cloud point temperature.
Number two, monitor the temperatureforecast for let's say the coming
month and look at what the lowtemperature forecasts are going to
(36:04):
be for the upcoming month or so.
And you're looking for times wherethe temperature is forecast to drop to
within 10 degrees above that cloud point.
So if your cloud point is 18 degrees,you're looking for when the temperatures
are forecast, the low temperaturesare forecast to drop below 28 degrees.
(36:25):
And when you see them,Projected to hit that mark.
That's when you want to put antigel treatment into your fuel.
You want to do that while the temperaturesare still above that fuels cloud point
so that you can be sure that the antigel is already there in the fuel.
to prevent the wax crystalsthat are coming out from causing
(36:49):
gelling problems for your fuel.
Then the last thing you want to payattention to is whether they're thinking
that there's going to be periods oftime in the coming months where you have
multiple consecutive days of temperaturescold enough to cloud or gel the fuel.
And you're also looking for Periods oftime where they project the temperature
(37:12):
to suddenly drop steeply versus gradually.
Now, the reason why that matters, ineither of those cases, you're more
likely to have gelling problems occur.
Because, number one, when you have asteep temperature drop, the wax comes
out of the fuel, Differently, it comesout, let's say, all at once, if you
(37:36):
will, and it behaves differently.
Then if you have a gradual temperaturedecrease, which then brings a
gradual drop out of the fuel.
It looks different, it behavesdifferently from a gelling standpoint.
Then, if the weather stays cold for two,three, four days in a row the longer that
it stays cold The less chance that thewax that comes out of the fuel, it doesn't
(38:02):
have a chance to re dissolve back up intothe fuel because the weather hasn't warmed
back up enough for it to re dissolve.
And so, the wax that came out atthe beginning is staying there.
Then more wax is coming out to join it.
More wax is coming out tojoin it, as it stays cold.
And that's when you start gettingthis phenomenon where these crystals
(38:24):
start, bumping into each other, growinglarger, and the fuel starts gelling.
So, multiple consecutive daysof cold temperatures and times
when you get a cold snap and thattemperature just drops suddenly.
In both of those cases, youwant to make sure that your
antigel is already in the fuel.
But the other thing you want to keepin mind is that if you start seeing
(38:47):
those Later in the winter season, maybeyou treated for antigel at the start.
You know, maybe you were proactive, yougot it in there in November or December,
depending on where in the country you are.
But then, in late February, you get thisa second period of really cold weather.
If that happens, you may want toconsider treating your fuel again.
(39:09):
Because your anti gel will havealready been working at the
beginning to protect your fuel.
But when you have this additionalcold snap that may start to stress
the protection level of your anti gel.
And, just to be safe, You may wantto treat your fuel again so that
you can have maximum confidencein your anti gel protection.
(39:32):
So, that is what they're thinkingthis winter is going to look like.
Hopefully it's going to be good for you.
And hopefully you can, you will havebeen able to take away something
from this that you can use.
For the upcoming winter monthsand weeks, and so that is going
to do it for this episode of theFuel Pulse Show podcast again.
(39:53):
As always, we're going to havelinks to some of the things we
talked about in the show notes.
If you haven't already, feel free tosubscribe to this podcast at your.
preferred podcast platform ofchoice, whether that's Apple iTunes,
Stitcher, Amazon Podcasts, whereveryou happen to like to listen to.
Of course, tell your friends.
(40:14):
It would be really helpful ifyou would leave a good review,
provided you like what you heard.
And so that is going to do it for thisepisode of the Fuel Pulse Show podcast.
I am your host, Eric Bjornstad, andwe will see you next time for the next
episode of the Fuel Pulse Show podcast.
Welcome to the Fuel Pulse Showpodcast, where we talk about all
(00:03):
things fuel for all kinds of people.
I'm your host, Eric Bjornstad,and I'll be your guide through
this ever changing world of fuel.
Here at the podcast, we liketo talk about all things fuel.
all the things related to all thedifferent kinds of fuel that we
rely on, both at work and at home.
Plus, we talk about everything relatedto all of the things that use that
(00:26):
fuel, both at work and at home.
That means the Fuel Pulse Showpodcast is really for everyone.
And so, what are we going totalk about on today's episode?
Well, winter just recently began,And we usually like to have something
out before the start of winter aboutwhat they're expecting to see as far
(00:49):
as winter weather goes across allthe different parts of the country.
Just like we typically do somethingaround April or May, talking about
what the upcoming winter hurricaneseason is going to be like and why
they think it's going to be like that.
Now, I'm not exactly sure when this isgoing to end up being published, but
if you see this after December and youhear references to dates from earlier in
(01:14):
the calendar, you'll know why that is.
So, today we're going to talk aboutwhat the National Weather Service
and other organizations think isgoing to happen across the country as
far as winter weather is concerned.
What's going to happen in New England,the Deep South, the Midwest, the Mountain
West, and over on the West Coast.
(01:34):
So, we'll talk a little bit aboutwhat they think the winter weather's
going to look like in Decemberversus January and February.
And as we are want to do, we'll tryto explain the major factors that they
say are playing into why they think thewinter weather is going to be like that.
(01:55):
So let's get started.
Now before we talk about what theythink is going to happen this year,
let's set the stage by rememberingwhat winter was like last year.
The winter of 2023 to 2024
ended up being notably warm and mildacross much of the United States.
(02:16):
In fact, several warmth records wereset and you had below normal snowfall
in many regions of the country.
Especially for areas in the upper Midwest,like up around Chicago, Illinois, that
area, there was They saw their warmestwinter on record, or for Chicago, it
was one of their top five warmest.
(02:37):
And much of the country saw a lotless snow than they usually do.
Now, meteorologists think thatthis was due to the strong,
what they call the El Nino.
conditions, strong El Nino conditionsthat influenced weather patterns
across the country, really.
For example over in Syracuse,New York, which by late February,
(02:58):
they're usually approaching 90inches of snowfall for the winter.
Last year, or rather February of2024, they were only at 40 inches.
Now, the biggest reason for thiswas, again, the presence of that
strong El Nino system, which led towarmer air masses dominating much
(03:19):
of the continental United States.
And so much of the country saw significantstretches of the season where they were
experiencing conditions more akin to fallor spring than normal winter weather.
And that reality, that's basicallywhat they predicted at the start.
They knew that there was going to bethe presence of this strong El Nino
(03:40):
system, so they reasoned that itspresence was going to warm things
up, and that is what happened.
Now, why does it matter?
Why does El Nino matter?
Well, El Nino is a climate patternthat's characterized by the warming of
sea surface temperatures in the centraland the eastern tropical pacific.
(04:03):
And this water warming, it affectsthe atmosphere and affects global
weather patterns around the world.
And it often leads to noticeable shiftsin winter weather for the United States.
Now, how does this happen?
How does El Nino typically leadto warmer winter temperatures?
Well, first of all, it affects Whenthe Pacific waters are warming,
(04:27):
as they do during El Nino, thatinfluences both the position and
the strength of that jet stream.
Jet stream, in case you didn'tpay attention in high school, the
jet stream is a high altitude aircurrent that flows from west to east.
to east, and this current will carryweather systems along with it, meaning
(04:51):
that if the jet stream's behaviorchanges that is going to strongly
influence the behavior of those weatherpatterns, not just in the United
States, but really around the world.
So when you have an El Nino event, likethey did during 2023 2024, the Pacific
jet stream often will actually move.
(05:12):
It will shift further south, andthen when it reaches the United
States, it's going to extend furthereastward toward the United States.
And this altered path, what happens is isit allows for the presence of more mild
and moist air from the Pacific to flowover parts of North America, particularly
(05:33):
the Southern and Western United States.
And what that ends up doing ismaking the winter temperatures
warmer and milder in those areas.
So that's number one.
The second effect that the El Nino hasis it reduces Arctic air incursions.
So, the jet stream is shiftingmore southerly, right?
(05:56):
And because it does that, that actuallywill block or reduce the southward flow of
the really, really cold, frigid Arctic airthat normally comes down from the Arctic
into the United States during the winter.
And that means that during an El Ninoevent, like we had this past winter,
areas that might normally experiencecold, Arctic conditions, they end up
(06:19):
seeing milder winter temperatures.
Remember, many times we get cold weatherbecause that really cold air from the
Arctic comes down further south overthe United States, but El Nino ends up
shifting the jet stream and that movementof the jet stream acts as almost like a
block to the movement of this frigid airso that it doesn't end up getting , as
(06:41):
cold as it normally does in the winter.
Transcribed And then numberthree, presence of an El Nino
system increases your cloud coverand increases precipitation.
So El Nino can lead toincreased cloud cover and more
precipitation in certain regions.
And , what effect that ends up having isit ends, that actually ends up moderating
(07:03):
the temperature so it doesn't get as cold.
See, clouds, when you have a lot ofclouds in the atmosphere, that actually
acts as an insulating layer and ittraps heat, especially at night.
And because it traps heat, thatkeeps the temperatures from
dropping too low, keeps them warmer.
(07:23):
So, that was last year, that was lastwinter, which was an unusually warm
winter for much of the United States.
And that was because of thepresence of that strong El Nino
system that had those effects onthe weather in the United States.
Now, let's see what they'resaying for this year.
They're saying it might look a littlebit like last year's, unusually warm
(07:48):
in many parts of the country, but theystill think there's going to be pockets
of really cold weather in certain areas.
So that's the general summary.
But, we know that the winterweather is going to be different
in different areas of the country.
It's not all going to be thesame across the entire country.
So, what we want to do is, we're goingto start in one area of the country.
(08:11):
We're going to talk about whatthey're likely to expect this winter.
And maybe just a little bitabout why they're expecting that.
And so what we're going to do is we'regoing to start with the northeast and
the upper Midwest Great Lakes regions.
Illinois, Indiana, Ohio.
What's this coming winter likelyto hold in store for them?
Well, meteorologists think it's verylikely that this coming winter is going
(08:35):
to alternate between, on the one hand,having some really cold spells, and then
alternate to unseasonably warm, And that'sgoing to happen, they think, in areas of
the country that are used to having snow.
Specifically, theNortheast and the Midwest.
See, most areas in the Northeast,they're going to end up receiving,
(08:59):
actually receiving more snow thisseason Which isn't hard to do if you
remember the places like Upstate NewYork and you know, remember Syracuse.
Those places had unusually lowlevels of snowfall last year.
Well, they think that's notgoing to be the same this year.
They think they're going to getamounts of snowfall that they're
more used to having, let's say.
(09:20):
And then the same thing they thinkis gonna be true for the Midwest.
They're gonna have more snowin areas of the Midwest like
Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
However, that doesn't mean they'resaying it's just gonna snow all winter
long and, you know, bury people.
No.
What they're saying is that These periodsof snow are going to be broken up by
(09:41):
pauses in the cold, wintry weather,especially in the middle part of the
winter, as remember, that milder air fromthe Pacific is going to be flowing in
across the country, warming things up.
And it's really hard to have a frigidcold snap with milder air, right?
So, what is this forecast going tolook like in the areas of New England?
(10:03):
Northeast, upper Midwest, as we movethrough the calendar months of winter.
This is what we're going to dofor each area of the country.
We're going to summarize what theythink is most likely to happen, which
we've already talked a little bit about.
And then we're going to try and painta picture of what the weather is
likely to look like in that regionas we move month by month through
(10:24):
to the end of winter towards fall.
So, start with December, firstmonth of meteorological winter.
They're predicting for thenortheast and the midwest.
They're predicting briefblasts of cold air that trigger
that famous lake effect snow.
Again, this is the opposite of whatthey saw last December, when they
really didn't have much lake effectweather going on, in places like Buffalo
(10:49):
Upstate New York, Michigan Lake area.
I mean, I know it's ironic if you've beenpaying attention to if you're a football
fan, you know that Just recently before wefilmed this last Sunday buffalo got buried
under snow And they had to hire people tocome dig it out Well, I think that kind
of fits into what they're predicting briefblasts of cold air brief blasts of lots
(11:12):
of snow but Then it's going to alternateand they're going to get warmer weather.
That's going to really warm things upSo, moving into January of next year
some big changes are going to unfoldduring the opening weeks of 2025
because meteorologists are predictingthat there's going to be a new weather
(11:33):
pattern in the northeast and themidwest that's going to promote milder
air and less snow across the wholeeastern half of the United States.
So, we've gone from frigidair and snow in December.
to now warmer winter weather that's goingto melt that snow in many of those places.
And that's going to have aninteresting effect on areas of the
(11:56):
east where they do a lot of skiing.
Some people, when you talk tometeorologists they say, , the
heart of the ski season might bea little bit rough in the east.
You know, even in ski resortswhere they're used to having
a healthy base of snow.
They will have gotten snow up tothis point, but then suddenly it's
(12:16):
all going to start warming up.
And a lot of those snowy slopesare going to turn icy because the
snow is going to melt during thedaytime and then freeze overnight.
So that's what they think for January,February, they're going to see a backend
surge back to winter temperatures.
And they're thinking that there'sgoing to be potential for multiple
(12:38):
snow storms everywhere from the greatlakes, Ohio Valley, and then all of.
through the Northeast.
And this is where, when you talk aboutThe risk of snow, you have snow, and then
you have another thing coming alongsideit, what they call the polar vortex.
Now we're going to talk more about thata little bit later, but what that's going
(12:59):
to do is you're going to get back tohaving good ski season in the Northeast
and Atlantic for the rest of the winter.
In fact, when it's all said and done,they think that major places like New
York City, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh,they're actually going to end up having
more snow this year than last year, inpart due to what they think is going
(13:23):
to be a particularly snowy Februaryfor those areas, places like Chicago,
Buffalo, they may not only have moresnow than last winter, but they also have
a chance for snowfalls for the season.
Ending up being greater than thehistorical average for those areas.
So, that is the Northeast and theMidwest, or the Upper Midwest.
(13:45):
What about the South?
and the Central Plains, the SouthernGulf Coast states in the Central Plains.
Well, for these areas, while theNortheast and the skiing areas are
getting blasted by that frigid air,winter is going to get off to a warmer
start for a lot of people who live alongthose Gulf Coast states and into the
(14:07):
plains, , Texas and Oklahoma, those areas.
And meteorologists predict that thatparticular phenomenon is probably going
to last through December, January, intoFebruary, which, you know, ends up being
much of the upcoming winter season.
Unseasonably warm winter weather forthe South and the Central Plains.
(14:29):
So, from December through February, in theSouth, The Central Southern Plains and the
Mississippi Valley and then all the way upthrough the Ohio and the Tennessee Valley.
All of those areas will be thewarmest areas of the country compared
to the typical winter temperaturesthat those areas usually get.
(14:49):
Meteorologists think thewinter temperatures for these
areas will be the warmest.
may end up running three to fourdegrees above their historical averages.
And, that's going to help familieswith like, heating bills, right?
Because they're not going to haveto pay as much to heat their homes
during this winter for the familiesand the businesses in those areas.
So, That's good news for them.
(15:12):
But that's not to say that those areasaren't ever going to get cold this winter.
Because what they're also predicting isthat what could happen in February is
there could be a surge of cold air thatdelivers sub freezing temperatures to
the Gulf Coast and even parts of Florida.
They say that if this happensit's most likely to happen in
(15:35):
February, although we don't know.
They're even saying it's onlygoing to be part of February.
They think the month as a whole is stillprojected to be milder than normal.
So it appears that for these parts ofthe country, the Gulf coast and the
plains up through the Mississippi andTennessee valleys, for them, winter
is going to be warmer than usual,
so you say when, youknow, warmer this winter.
(15:57):
Great.
That's good news.
Well, it might not be all good newsfor these areas because You have
widespread warm weather in those areas.
And what that's going to end updoing though, is it's going to end up
bringing along with it drier conditions.
along the Gulf Coast states.
And what that's going to cause, theythink, is they actually think that this
(16:22):
winter is going to see some droughtconditions in the Gulf Coast and in
the majority of the Great Plains, eveninto portions of the Rocky Mountains.
But when they do break that drought,When they do get rain or storms,
whatever rain or storms they do happento get, they're probably going to be
(16:43):
more severe and more powerful thanusual because of that milder weather.
But also, very importantly, becausethey're going to be seeing warm, humid
air coming up from the Gulf of Mexico.
All that's gonna kind of mix together.
And so, in the Gulf Coast states andin the the plain states, central
plain states, warmer weather thanusual this winter, less snow.
(17:07):
and more powerful storms which maybe few and far between, but you'll
know them when they hit, so to speak.
Okay, what about the MountainWest and the West Coast?
So in the western and mountainwest parts of the country,
fall has been unusually warm.
In fact, summer leading intofall has been really hot.
(17:27):
I mean, you look at Phoenix, Arizona.
All summer long, Phoenix, Arizona,and that area of the country has been
roasting under these really hot, extendedtemperatures for the entire summer.
, Las Vegas, Nevada, one day thispast summer, 120 degrees Fahrenheit.
And Las Vegas also had five consecutivedays where they reached 115 degrees.
(17:51):
115 degrees, that'snever, happened before.
Well, this fall, Mountain Westplaces like Denver, they're seeing
temperatures, or they have seentemperatures that are consistently
at least 10 degrees hotter than theirnormal highs for a typical year.
The state of Wyoming, as a whole, averagedmore than five degrees warmer for its
(18:15):
high in September than a typical year.
Arizona, seven degrees warmer than normal.
But, For the winter, meteorologistsare saying that warm trend
is not likely to continue.
They think that December, they'regoing to get more rain, it's going
to cool things down, and that's evenbefore winter really gets ramped up.
(18:36):
It's going to rain more thanusual in December in the
West and the mountain West.
And what that's going to mean is lotsof snow in the mountains for skiing.
In the Mountain West, not necessarilyin ski areas of California, though.
California's time for snowis going to be coming just a
(18:58):
little bit later in the season.
More like January and February.
Of course, Southern Californiais not going to get snow.
You know, LA and San Diego,they're not going to get snow.
They're just going to begetting rained on a lot.
But the Northwest?
And Northern California areas aredefinitely going to see substantial
snowfalls just later in the winter season.
(19:19):
So, for the Mountain West and theWest, we have snow in December
for certain areas, lots of rain inDecember and January for other areas.
In February, They're saying there'slikely going to be, the weather pattern
is likely going to shift and it's goingto make those northern areas colder.
The Pacific Northwest and theRockies, they're going to see plenty
(19:41):
of storms in February, but they'reno longer going to be snowstorms.
They're just going to be rainstorms.
And so what that means for thoseski areas, remember out in the
Northeast, they're getting plentyof snow for skiing out there.
But the opposite is going to be truefor the Midwest and, excuse me, for the
Mountain West in Northern California.
(20:02):
They're not going to getsnow later in the season.
They're going to get more rain.
That means normal ski areas that arepopular in like, the mountains of
California, Arizona, Northern NewMexico, ski season is probably for
those areas going to be ending a littlebit earlier this year than normal.
(20:23):
So, now that we know what they thinkis going to happen, now we get to
ask the question why they thinkit's most likely to be that way.
And we keep saying, most likely, possibly,because all these things that we're
talking about, they're all possible.
predictions.
They could end up being wrong about this.
They're, they're, they are their bestprediction based on what they think
(20:44):
they know about what they're seeing.
Just like for this pastpresidential election, right?
You have a polling website like 538.
com.
538 has its election predictor.
And they said, you know, accordingto the polls, Donald Trump wins 530
out of a thousand general electionsimulations or in another simulation,
Kamala Harris wins 502 versus.
(21:07):
497 for Trump.
They're all just predictionsbased on the best interpretation
of the information available.
And so, meteorologists are sayingthat there are three big factors
that are the biggest things theythink are influencing the climate.
What's likely to happen and thesethree things are number one presence
(21:28):
of a La Nina, not El Nino, but LaNina weather system, presence of a
polar vortex, and then number three,the water temperatures in the Gulf
of Mexico being warmer than normal.
So let's talk about each of these.
First one we have to talk about is onethat you might have heard of, La Nina,
(21:50):
which is the little sister of the morefamous El Nino that we already mentioned.
Now, meteorologists always look atpotential development of an El Nino
weather pattern earlier in the year,
usually in spring and summer, asthat's the thing that typically
affects hurricane season.
(22:10):
And then later in the year, iswhen they look to see if a La
Nina system is going to develop.
And that is, if it does, that's goingto affect winter weather conditions.
So, we start by saying forecastersfrom the National Oceanic Atmospheric
Association, or NOAA, They're expectinga La Nina climate pattern to form in the
(22:33):
Pacific in the coming months of winter.
La Nina is where the water temperaturesnear the equator in the eastern part
of the Pacific Ocean, they're notwarmer than normal, they're actually
colder, cooler, below the historicalaverage for an extended period of time.
(22:53):
And when that happens, that influencesthe weather patterns across all of
North America, including influencingthe trajectory of snowstorms.
Now, these two brother sistersystems, La Nina El Niño.
They kind of work in oppositeways from each other.
El Niño relies on warmer than averagewater temperatures, which ends up leading
(23:16):
to more storms forming in the Pacific.
But also, El Niño contributes tomore wind shear in the, way over in
the Atlantic region, which actuallycuts down on storms forming there.
Systems develop in one part of the world.
This is an example of how systemsdeveloping in one part of the world
affect what happens with the weatherin another part of the world.
(23:39):
So, El Niño does that.
La Niña, on the other hand, formsnot when the water temperature is
warmer, but when the water is colder.
And so, when meteorologists detectthat the waters are at least 0.
9 degrees Fahrenheit below the historicalaverage, they declare that, oh, we have
a, an, la, a, excuse me, we have a LaNina weather system in effect, but you
(24:05):
can have a weak one or a strong one.
And La Niña affects weather differentlydepending on whether it is weak or strong.
When you have a strong La Niña, thatgives you more extreme weather patterns.
For example, when you have astrong La Niña system, the U.
S.
might experience colder and stormierconditions than usual in La Niña.
(24:29):
The Northwest, , the area close to thePacific, Washington, Oregon, Northern
California, while at the same time,seeing drier and warmer conditions in
the Southwest, Arizona, New Mexico,and the Southern United States, the
Gulf Coast, sees less precipitation,less Which increases their risk of
drought, and we see end up seeing allthis because when you have a strong La
(24:53):
Nina system, that leads to stronger andmore persistent shifts in that Pacific
jet stream that we talked about, andthat affects global weather systems.
When you have a strong La Nina system,these shifts in the jet stream lead
to greater deviations from averageweather patterns, which results in
more pronounced areas of dryness.
(25:16):
Wetness, heat, or cold indifferent regions of the country.
So, different regions of thecountry may see weather that
they're used to in terms of, if it'susually cold, well, oh, it's cold.
But, it's going to be really cold.
Areas that tend to be wet, oh look,it's raining or it's snowing again.
But, they're getting a lot more of it.
(25:38):
So again, more extreme weatherconditions in those areas.
If you will, you could say amplifiedseasonal weather extremes in all
these different areas of the country.
And in fact, if you have a good enoughmemory, you go back to 2010 and 2011.
There was a strong El Nino, that'sexactly what happened in the country.
(25:58):
Now, if you have a week, El Niño system.
Again, as you would expect, a weak elLa Niña system, excuse me, gives less
pronounced effects, but generally thesame kind of pattern as a strong La
Niña, although because it's weaker, theimpacts on temperature and precipitation
are milder and less consistent.
(26:19):
So, what is all of thisgoing to look like for us?
Well, for the upcoming winter, itlooks, they are predicting a La
Nina system is going to be there.
And so it's going to affecttemperatures in the south.
It's going to be the thing that'sgoing to be keeping the southern
United States warmer than usual.
How?
How is that going to happen?
(26:40):
They expect that the combination of aLa Nina system directing storm tracks
across the Northern United States.
So it's going to be doing that.
Number one, number two, you're going tohave these above average Gulf of Mexico
water temperatures, and you're goingto get periodic influxes of warm, mild
Pacific air into the Plains and the East.
(27:01):
And the combination of all thosethings together is going to restrict
the persistence of cold air in theSouthern United States, basically
making it warmer than usual.
Okay.
So.
Thing number one that they thinkwe're going to see is La Nina.
Thing number two is Polar Vortex.
(27:22):
Okay, so this Polar Vortex thing,Typically, in any given year, it
affects winter weather by sendingwaves of cold air, or extremely
cold air, down from the Arctic,down into the mid latitude regions.
And when you say mid latituderegions, that means the United States.
(27:43):
And so what matters when they talkabout whether, how it's going to
affect the weather in the UnitedStates, what matters is whether this
polar vortex is strong and stable.
or weak and unstable.
So when you have a strong, stablepolar vortex, what happens is,
colder arctic air actually stayscontained closer to the poles.
(28:08):
And so, what that ends up doing is thatleads to milder winter conditions in mid
latitude areas like the United States.
But, if the polar vortex weakens orbecomes distorted, that allows that
frigid arctic air to spill southward.
And so you get Cold, severe coldsnaps along with it, and heavy
(28:31):
snowfalls in mid latitude areas.
So, strong polar vortexmeans milder winter.
Weak polar vortex means colder winter.
And based on data from previous wintersthat had a similar setup as we're seeing
right now, they think that February,the month of February, is the most
(28:54):
probable time frame for the polar vortexto kind of weaken a little bit and
allow some of that bitterly cold airto come down into the United States.
Okay, third influencing factor, warmwater in the Gulf and the Pacific.
Now, I know that we said something earlierabout a La Nina system forming because
(29:18):
Pacific waters were colder, not warmer.
So stay with me here and I'llexplain this, because it sounds
like we're contradicting each other.
let's explain.
Okay, the temperature of the waterin the Gulf of Mexico and the
northern and northeastern Pacific.
Those are all factors that are goingto affect our weather this winter.
(29:38):
They're expecting the watertemperatures in the Gulf of Mexico to
be higher than historical averages.
I know, shocking, right?
When you have warmer water in the Gulf,That translates to mild air being present
for the eastern and central United States.
Meanwhile, at the same time asthat, over in the Pacific, they're
(30:01):
expecting warmer than average watertemperatures in the northern Pacific.
Now remember, we said La Nina isgoing to form because of cooler water
than normal in the central Pacific.
Well, different part of the Pacific Ocean.
The northern Pacific, the water isgoing to be warmer, and that's going to
alter the storm tracks that are goingto form, especially ones that affect
(30:25):
the west coast of the United States.
Now, let's explain that a littlemore because it still sounds
a little bit confusing, okay?
So, When the northern Pacific Ocean watersare warmer than average, like they're
expecting them to be, and at the sametime you have cooler water in the central
Pacific water, so remember warm water,cool water, that, the combination of those
(30:50):
two things can significantly influenceatmospheric conditions and change the
paths that storms take during the winter.
The warm water, cold watersetup that we have, that ends up
changing that jet stream, remember,the high altitude air current.
So the warmer waters in the northernPacific cause the jet stream to start
(31:14):
to buckle a little bit, if you will,and shift, move up further north.
And when that jet stream movesfurther north that's going to direct
more storms towards the west coast.
Potentially giving them morerainfall and more storm activity.
And then as that jet stream shiftsnorth because of that warm northern
(31:37):
Pacific water it's going to affectweather patterns across the rest
of the United States as well.
For example, when you have a morenortherly storm track on the west
coast, that's going to lead to drierconditions in the southern part
of the United States and wetterconditions in the northern part.
So essentially, you have this interplaybetween Ocean water temperatures
(32:00):
and atmospheric conditions.
You have this kind ofcomplicated interplay.
I mean, I've been talking about, it'sgoing to be warm here, cold here,
dry here, this is happening here,it's pushing this here,, if you're
not a professional meteorologist,that all sounds really complicated.
And it really just illustrates howinterconnected our planet's climate
(32:22):
system is where anomalies that happenin one part of the ocean, in one ocean
over here, can lead to significantweather changes that affect an entire
continent all the way over here on anentirely different part of the world.
Alright, so, let's summarize whatthey think is going to happen.
(32:43):
They're saying the winter outlookis going to be different for
different areas of the country.
In fact, maybe markedly differentstories for these different areas.
Okay, so, to review.
The South and the Lower Midwest Plains.
So, South.
Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Louisiana,and then Texas and Oklahoma.
(33:04):
Those areas, they think, are going to bewarmer than usual at least into February.
Then, in that last part of winter,they might get some snowstorms.
And, if they do, those snowstormsare likely to be pretty severe.
Okay, so that's the South.
The Northeast and the Upper Midwest, sowe'll talk about New England, Upstate New
(33:26):
York, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana.
Winter's gonna start cold, frigid, snowy,cold for the first part of the winter.
Then things are gonna thaw out with warmerthan usual temperatures in January until
they freeze up again after February.
Now The west and the mountain westparts of the country, lots of storms in
(33:50):
December, plenty of snow in the mountains,rain in other parts of that area.
By February, the weather pattern isgoing to shift, so that areas that are
used to getting snow, like NorthernCalifornia and Colorado, are going
to be getting rained on instead.
So, all in all, this forecastseems to be a little bit different
(34:13):
from the past couple years becausethey're not projecting months on
end of frigid cold temperatures.
Now, granted, they didn't last year.
We're really talking about the yearbefore that and the year before that.
This forecast seems to bea little bit different.
Now, sure, there are going to beplenty of areas of the country
that will get plenty cold.
So, if you happen to manage or bein charge of stored diesel fuel,
(34:38):
you're going to want to continuedoing your due diligence just like
you should be doing every year.
You're monitoring thosewinter temperatures.
And if you live in an area,say, in the upper Midwest, okay,
you probably already know this.
And the reason that you're going towant to keep an eye on these things is
because you're trying to prevent gellingproblems in your stored diesel fuel.
(34:59):
Now, we've talked about this phenomenonon a number of different past episodes,
so we're not going to go into massiveamounts of detail here, but in case
you missed it up to this point, thisis the down and dirty summary of
what you'll want to monitor, okay?
Number one, start by knowing yourdiesel fuel's cloud of Remember,
(35:21):
cloud point is the temperaturewhere enough of the paraffin wax
content of the fuel has becomeinsoluble because the weather's cold.
And it's coming out as crystals sothat you can see a little bit of cloud,
a little bit of haze in the fuel.
Now, your fuel supplier may beable to tell you the specific cloud
point temperature for your fuel.
(35:43):
But if they don't happen to know it, youYou can probably assume that it's going to
be somewhere around 18 degrees Fahrenheit.
Okay.
So number one, start with knowingyour fuel's cloud point temperature.
Number two, monitor the temperatureforecast for let's say the coming
month and look at what the lowtemperature forecasts are going to
(36:04):
be for the upcoming month or so.
And you're looking for times wherethe temperature is forecast to drop to
within 10 degrees above that cloud point.
So if your cloud point is 18 degrees,you're looking for when the temperatures
are forecast, the low temperaturesare forecast to drop below 28 degrees.
(36:25):
And when you see them,Projected to hit that mark.
That's when you want to put antigel treatment into your fuel.
You want to do that while the temperaturesare still above that fuels cloud point
so that you can be sure that the antigel is already there in the fuel.
to prevent the wax crystalsthat are coming out from causing
(36:49):
gelling problems for your fuel.
Then the last thing you want to payattention to is whether they're thinking
that there's going to be periods oftime in the coming months where you have
multiple consecutive days of temperaturescold enough to cloud or gel the fuel.
And you're also looking for Periods oftime where they project the temperature
(37:12):
to suddenly drop steeply versus gradually.
Now, the reason why that matters, ineither of those cases, you're more
likely to have gelling problems occur.
Because, number one, when you have asteep temperature drop, the wax comes
out of the fuel, Differently, it comesout, let's say, all at once, if you
(37:36):
will, and it behaves differently.
Then if you have a gradual temperaturedecrease, which then brings a
gradual drop out of the fuel.
It looks different, it behavesdifferently from a gelling standpoint.
Then, if the weather stays cold for two,three, four days in a row the longer that
it stays cold The less chance that thewax that comes out of the fuel, it doesn't
(38:02):
have a chance to re dissolve back up intothe fuel because the weather hasn't warmed
back up enough for it to re dissolve.
And so, the wax that came out atthe beginning is staying there.
Then more wax is coming out to join it.
More wax is coming out tojoin it, as it stays cold.
And that's when you start gettingthis phenomenon where these crystals
(38:24):
start, bumping into each other, growinglarger, and the fuel starts gelling.
So, multiple consecutive daysof cold temperatures and times
when you get a cold snap and thattemperature just drops suddenly.
In both of those cases, youwant to make sure that your
antigel is already in the fuel.
But the other thing you want to keepin mind is that if you start seeing
(38:47):
those Later in the winter season, maybeyou treated for antigel at the start.
You know, maybe you were proactive, yougot it in there in November or December,
depending on where in the country you are.
But then, in late February, you get thisa second period of really cold weather.
If that happens, you may want toconsider treating your fuel again.
(39:09):
Because your anti gel will havealready been working at the
beginning to protect your fuel.
But when you have this additionalcold snap that may start to stress
the protection level of your anti gel.
And, just to be safe, You may wantto treat your fuel again so that
you can have maximum confidencein your anti gel protection.
(39:32):
So, that is what they're thinkingthis winter is going to look like.
Hopefully it's going to be good for you.
And hopefully you can, you will havebeen able to take away something
from this that you can use.
For the upcoming winter monthsand weeks, and so that is going
to do it for this episode of theFuel Pulse Show podcast again.
(39:53):
As always, we're going to havelinks to some of the things we
talked about in the show notes.
If you haven't already, feel free tosubscribe to this podcast at your.
preferred podcast platform ofchoice, whether that's Apple iTunes,
Stitcher, Amazon Podcasts, whereveryou happen to like to listen to.
Of course, tell your friends.
(40:14):
It would be really helpful ifyou would leave a good review,
provided you like what you heard.
And so that is going to do it for thisepisode of the Fuel Pulse Show podcast.
I am your host, Eric Bjornstad, andwe will see you next time for the next
episode of the Fuel Pulse Show podcast.
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