May 21, 2025 • 20 mins
In Episode 74 of the Fuel Pulse Show podcast, host Erik Bjornstad discusses predictions for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. He explains how hurricane seasons are measured using named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for both storm intensity and duration.
After reviewing forecasts from major institutions, including Colorado State University and the University of Arizona, the consensus indicates a near-normal to slightly above-average season with approximately 15 named storms expected. Differences in predictions largely stem from varying assumptions about sea surface temperatures.
Bjornstad compares these predictions to 2024's active season, which ranked in the top 20 historically with an ACE index of 161.6, and previews the next episode, which will focus on hurricane preparation strategies for critical infrastructure industries.
What You'll Learn:
- How hurricane seasons are measured and classified using named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes
- The significance of the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index and how it's calculated
- Current predictions for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season from multiple meteorological organizations
- How sea surface temperatures influence hurricane activity forecasts
- Comparison between upcoming predictions and recent hurricane seasons
- Historical context of significant hurricane seasons and notable storms
- The importance of hurricane preparation for critical infrastructure industries
- Why many named storms never make landfall in the United States
Ideas Worth Sharing:
Here are three notable quotes from the podcast episode:
-
"Hurricane season starts usually on June 1 and runs through November 30th and before June. All through that first part of the year, we start getting predictions about whether we should expect the coming season to be good, bad, or ugly."
-
"The ACE index reflects this or confirms, makes us see that this idea that how bad a storm is isn't just reflected in something like, well, how, you know, what is its maximum wind speed. It really matters for saying how powerful a storm is. It really matters, not just if the winds are strong, but how long they are strong for."
-
"The predictions are, it's not going to be a quiet season. It may not end up being as busy or as, as bad as the seasons were in 2017 or 2024, much less, you know, 2004, 2005, all of which were, shall we say, historically active hurricane seasons."
Resources Mentioned:
- Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) - Organization providing hurricane forecasts
- NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) - Reference for average hurricane season data
- Bellicide
- Erik Bjornstad: LinkedIn
Show Notes:
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Welcome to the Fuel Pulse Showpodcast, where we talk about all
things fuel for all kinds of people.
I am your host, Eric Jotted, andI'll be your guide today through
that ever changing world of Fuel.
So here at the Fuel Pulse ShowPodcast, we talk about important news
and factors concerning the differentkinds of fuel that we all have to
(00:22):
use, both in our professional liveson the job and in our personal lives.
Plus, we also talk about all the equipmentand the systems and the things that
use that fuel both in our professionallives and also the things that we use
personally to make our lives easier.
That means the Fuel PulseShow Podcast is really for.
(00:43):
Everyone.
And so what are we gonna talkabout on today's episode?
Well, we're gonna talk aboutsomething that gets discussed or
always gets discussed about thistime on the calendar each year.
That is expectations for theupcoming Atlantic hurricane season.
(01:04):
Hurricane season startsusually June the first.
Runs through November30th and before June.
All through that first part of theyear, we start getting predictions
about whether we should expect thecoming season to be good, bad, or ugly.
And how much so now?
So far this year, up throughmiddle to late April, four
(01:27):
organizations have so far.
Weighed in with predictionsabout hurricane season, about
what they think is gonna happen.
There is the organizationknown as Tropical Storm Risk.
They did the first prediction backin December, then they updated
it with a new one later in April.
We have Colorado State University.
(01:49):
We have the University of Arizona, andwe have North Carolina State University.
All three of them had done predictionsbefore and are fairly well regarded,
so they all did their predictionson what we might expect for the 2025
Atlanta hurricane season look like now.
The question that starts cominginto our minds is what does a
(02:12):
typical hurricane season look like?
And in order to describe a typicalhurricane season, there are at least
three elements, really four elementsthat go into all hurricane season
predictions that you're likely to see.
So whether we're talking about howbad they're predicting a season to be.
Or we're looking back on pastyears and talking about what
(02:35):
happened in those years storm wise.
We'll always referencethese three to four things.
Now, if you think about a. An average yearaccording to noaa, which is the National
Oceanic Atmospheric Administration,according to noaa and also data from
Colorado State University between 1991and 2020, so about 30 years there.
(03:03):
The average hurricaneseason had 14 named storms.
Seven hurricanes and thenthree major hurricanes.
Major hurricane beingcategory three or higher.
And then there's a fourththing that they mentioned.
The average year would have anaccumulated cyclone energy index or
(03:23):
ACE index of between 70 and 110 units.
Talk about what that means in a moment.
Now keep in mind when we say named storms.
Any storm that forms out in the Atlanticand gets above a certain strength is going
to get a name and a substantial number ofnamed storms in every hurricane season.
(03:46):
They never make it to the us.
They may form out in the Atlantic,they may fizzle out in the Atlantic,
or they may curve away from theUnited States, go somewhere else.
Substantial number of named stormsnever actually make landfall.
And so when we say the average season has14 named storms, we're not talking about.
(04:08):
14 storms hitting the south oreast coast of the United States.
Now, we mentioned thisthing called an ACE index.
What is the ACE index?
Well, broadly speaking, this accumulatedcyclone energy index, it's a way.
To express the total strength and durationof these tropical and subtropical storms
(04:31):
that happen throughout a hurricane season.
Now, what Noah will do whenthey're describing or classifying a
hurricane season, they will defaultto looking primarily at the ACE
value for that particular year.
They may also mention the numberof storms and major hurricanes,
but really the ACE index.
For the National Oceanic AtmosphericAdministration, ACE value's really gonna
(04:56):
be the primary thing that they willpoint to when they say for example, that
2022 was a below average year, or 2024was an above average hurricane season.
Now, how do you calculate the ACE value?
Because right now it's, itdoesn't mean anything to us.
Well, the ACE value iscalculated for each storm.
(05:19):
And so for any particular storm, firstthing they do is they wait until that
storm exceeds the threshold for tropicalstorm strength, which is having sustained
wind speeds of 39 miles an hour or higher.
Once a storm reaches that,they'll start taking wind
speed measurements and they'll.
(05:41):
Take measurements of a storm's maximumsustained wind speed at a given point in
time, and they'll express that in knots.
Now you've heard knots, K-N-O-T-S-Aknot is about 1.2 miles per hour.
So think of if a storm has, if ifwind speed is 50 miles an hour,
that's about 40 knots, give or take.
(06:04):
Okay?
So they take a measurement.
Of the wind speed in knots.
Then what they do is they squarethat and they divide by 10,000.
Then they keep takingmeasurements every six hours.
Until the storm drops or stopsbeing at Tropical Storm strength.
(06:26):
And then once the storm, once the stormdrops below, that essentially goes away,
they'll add all those up and we'll say,this is that storm's ACE index value.
So let's take an example.
Let's say that we have a moderate.
A tropical storm, one that has the windspeeds of 45 knots, which we'll say
(06:47):
for kicks is about 60 miles an hour.
Okay.
But it's sustains those, it'll, theylast for about three days, 72 hours.
So we'll assume that that's.
12 readings might be 13, but we'll say 12.
Okay.
So they have 12 readings andeach reading, let's say it
kept that wind speed, 45 knots.
(07:08):
So each reading would be 45 squareddivided by 10,000, which if you've got a
calculator, you know what that number is.
But basically that's about 0.2.
Each reading, they had 12 readings.
That means that when it's all said anddone, that storm had an ACE index value of
about 2.4, which isn't really that much.
(07:30):
But remember, we weren't talkingabout a particularly powerful storm.
So that's the ACE Index or how theycalculate the ACE index for one storm.
The total ACE index for a givenhurricane season is a single number.
That's all of the ACE indexes for all thestorms that happened, all added together.
And so once you realize what itis, you realize that ACE Index is.
(07:53):
Pretty useful for, for reflecting.
Not just, how many storms occurred,but really how long their storms
lasted for and how intense they were.
It should be pretty easyto see that the ACE index.
Reflects this or confirms, makesus see that this idea that how bad
a storm is isn't just reflected insomething like, well, how, you know,
(08:15):
what is its maximum wind speed.
It really matters for sayinghow powerful a storm is.
It really matters, not just ifthe winds are strong, but how
long they are strong for now.
The highest ACE index for agiven hurricane season in a
year happened way back in 1933.
(08:38):
It was 258.6.
Now keep in mind though, 1933 wasbefore they had weather satellites.
That means that in actuality, that yearmight have actually been worse than
that because there might have been anynumber of smaller storms that just didn't
happen to get counted 'cause they didn'thave satellites keeping track of them.
(08:59):
Let's go to a more recent couple ofyears that will be more meaningful us.
If you remember the years 2004and 2005 when we had storm after
storm after major hurricane afterstorm just coming up and just.
Pummeling the Southern United States2005 had the second highest ACE index
(09:23):
in recorded history, 250 and 2004.
The year before it was,I think, fifth highest.
All times.
So those were pretty bad yearsin the ACE Index reflects that.
Now in terms of how powerful single stormsare, the record holder is from a storm
that happened way back in 1893 that hasthe single record, the the, the single
(09:50):
storm record for the highest ACE index.
But Hurricane Ivan back in2004 has the second highest.
One, it has an asy index of over 70.
Now, how did it get so high?
Well, let's talk about someof Biden's characteristics.
Ivan was a storm that reallycombined really powerful winds,
(10:11):
unusually powerful winds.
That happened over anunusually long period of time.
Ivan, as a storm, actually lastedfor over three weeks, had at its
peak the max wind speeds for Ivanwere 165 miles an hour, which I'm
pretty sure makes it a category five.
But more importantly, for compilingthis high ACE index, it stayed as a
(10:35):
major hurricane that's category threeor higher for 10 consecutive days, which
is the longest time in recorded history.
So those kinds of things are thethings that you have to all have.
To fall into place for, in orderfor you to end up with an ACE index
as high as 70, which I haven't had.
Alright, so that's enough about the past.
(10:56):
Let's talk about what are the predictionsfor the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?
So October 10th, the groupTropical Storm Risks.
C released its, or their extendedrange forecast for the 2025 season,
they predicted what could be no lookedat as an average hurricane season.
(11:17):
They said 15 named storms, sevenhurricanes, three major hurricanes.
Now, they did note that thisforecast that they were coming out
with first had, as they put it,higher than normal uncertainty due
to, well, any number of things.
Including the fact that it'sthe one furthest in the past,
(11:40):
furthest away from events.
Go to beginning of April wetypically expect to start seeing
more forecasts, and so Colorado Statereleases its forecast on April 3rd.
They predict an above average hurricane.
Season 17, named storms nine hurricanes.
Four major hurricanes.
(12:02):
And unlike tropical storm, thetropical storm group, Colorado
State made an ACE index prediction.
They said we predict 155.
Now 155 is substantiallyhigher than the average season.
You remember seventy two, a hundredand ten would be about average.
And the reason that they citedthat is they said there's gonna
(12:24):
be warm Atlantic sea temperatures.
And the La Nina system that'sbeen present out in the Pacific
is gonna weaken and essentiallygo away, become neutral by summer.
And so those things are gonna contributeto having a more active hurricane season.
So that's Colorado State.
Four days later, TSR, the tropicalstorm risk group updates their
(12:45):
forecast, but they double down onpredicting a near average season.
Okay, so two groups.
One predicting above average,one predicting about average
University of Arizona chimes in.
They post their forecast, they're callingfor a normal hurricane season 15, named
(13:06):
storms, seven hurricanes, three majorhurricanes, and they predict an ACE
index of 110, which is about normal.
So all told, when you look at theconsensus, including at whatever NCC.
They predicted the consensus sofar is they're predicting 15 named
(13:28):
storms, seven to eight hurricanes,three major hurricanes, which means
about a normal hurricane season.
Now the ACE predictions on the other handare, have a little bit more variance.
Remember, Arizona Statepredicted 110 units.
Colorado State predicted155 units, which is.
(13:49):
25% above average.
And then there were a couple otherpredictions that slotted in between those.
Why is there so much differencein those predictions?
Well.
Appears to come down to how mucheffect that a particular group
thinks the C surface temperatures aregonna have in the upcoming season.
(14:11):
See, Colorado State is basing theirprediction of an ACE Index 155.
They're predicting it on or basingit rather on the assumption that the
water temperatures on the sea surfaceare going to be warmer than usual.
Now, if they're right about that.
Their predictions a lot more likely tobe closer to what's gonna happen because
(14:33):
warmer sea temperatures are a big, bigdriver of hurricane storm activity.
Now, by contrast, tropical storm risk.
They happen to think that the seasurface temperatures aren't going
to be that much warmer than usual.
They think that the sea surfacetemperatures are gonna be pretty normal,
(14:54):
which is why they predict an ACE index.
Much closer to the historical average now.
So that's the predictions for 2025.
How do those compare to the activitywe've seen from the past few years?
We asked that question.
We can start to put this intoa little bit of perspective.
So, last year, 2024.
(15:16):
2024 season was actually.
More active than usual, andthat's exactly what they predicted
it was gonna be at the start.
We ended up having 18 named storms.
We ended up having 11 hurricanesand we had five major hurricanes.
The predictions were 20 named storms,11 hurricanes, five major ones.
(15:38):
So you see overall.
The, the, the reality, the predictionsweren't that far off of the reality.
2024. Also, the ASIN index for2024 ended up being 161.6, 161.
That made places 2024 really firmlyinto the above average year category.
(16:01):
161 for an asy index actually putslast year around, I think it's 16th,
so firmly in the top 20 all time forbusiest Atlantic hurricane seasons now.
What made 2024 so busy?
Well.
I know people have short memories,so we'll recite some names.
(16:21):
2024 had at least threesignificant storms that really
contributed to that elevated asex.
There was, if you remember,there's Hurricane Barrel,
hurricane Milton, hurricane Kirk.
These are pretty, pretty big storms, bothin strength and duration, and you may
have forgotten, but Hurricane Barrel.
(16:43):
Was actually the earliest categoryfive hurricane on record in
the Atlantic that they found.
So summary, what should we expect for theupcoming 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?
And then later we're gonna talkabout what does that tell us or does
that tell us anything about what weshould be doing to prepare for that?
(17:07):
Well, the predictions are, it'snot going to be a quiet season.
It may not end up being as busy oras, as bad as the seasons were in 2017
or 2024, much less, you know, 2004,2005, all of which were, shall we say,
historically active hurricane seasons.
(17:27):
But the predictions are pretty muchin consensus that 2020 five's likely
not going to be coming in likea lamb either like 2015 or 2022.
We were years that were unusuallyquiet in terms of hurricane activity.
And so that's gonna do it for thisepisode of the Fuel Pulse Show Podcast.
(17:50):
What we're gonna do in the next episodeis we're gonna piggyback off of this,
and we're gonna talk about, now that weknow what we might expect in terms of.
Activity for this hurricane season.
We wanna ask the question, what, whatshould that lead us to do in response?
How should we preparefor hurricane season?
(18:11):
Especially if we are in, let's say,the hospital and healthcare industry
or the telecom industry, which aretwo industries that customers really
rely on services being availableand having zero interruptions
whatsoever, and that means that.
It's really important for thesegroups to have viable emergency
(18:32):
backup systems, including emergencybackup fuel that helps them get
through a hurricane season withoutany disruptions to their customers.
So we'll talk about what some ofthe recommendations are gonna be for
those sectors specifically as well.
So we'll talk about that in the nextepisode of the Fuel Pulse Show Podcast.
In the meantime, thankyou for joining me today.
(18:55):
We as usual, we will havelinks to everything that we
talked about in the show notes.
And if you haven't already, feel free tosubscribe to the Fuel Pulse Show podcast
on your podcast platform or choice, beit app iTunes Amazon Podcast, Stitcher.
Spotify, wherever you most preferto get your podcast information
(19:17):
from, feel free to subscribe.
Leave us a good rating if youfeel so inclined, 'cause that's
also something that is helpfulfor people finding us as well.
So, till next time, I am your host,Eric Bjornstad, and I will see
you next time for the next episodeof the Fuel Pulse Show podcast.
Welcome to the Fuel Pulse Showpodcast, where we talk about all
things fuel for all kinds of people.
I am your host, Eric Jotted, andI'll be your guide today through
that ever changing world of Fuel.
So here at the Fuel Pulse ShowPodcast, we talk about important news
and factors concerning the differentkinds of fuel that we all have to
(00:22):
use, both in our professional liveson the job and in our personal lives.
Plus, we also talk about all the equipmentand the systems and the things that
use that fuel both in our professionallives and also the things that we use
personally to make our lives easier.
That means the Fuel PulseShow Podcast is really for.
(00:43):
Everyone.
And so what are we gonna talkabout on today's episode?
Well, we're gonna talk aboutsomething that gets discussed or
always gets discussed about thistime on the calendar each year.
That is expectations for theupcoming Atlantic hurricane season.
(01:04):
Hurricane season startsusually June the first.
Runs through November30th and before June.
All through that first part of theyear, we start getting predictions
about whether we should expect thecoming season to be good, bad, or ugly.
And how much so now?
So far this year, up throughmiddle to late April, four
(01:27):
organizations have so far.
Weighed in with predictionsabout hurricane season, about
what they think is gonna happen.
There is the organizationknown as Tropical Storm Risk.
They did the first prediction backin December, then they updated
it with a new one later in April.
We have Colorado State University.
(01:49):
We have the University of Arizona, andwe have North Carolina State University.
All three of them had done predictionsbefore and are fairly well regarded,
so they all did their predictionson what we might expect for the 2025
Atlanta hurricane season look like now.
The question that starts cominginto our minds is what does a
(02:12):
typical hurricane season look like?
And in order to describe a typicalhurricane season, there are at least
three elements, really four elementsthat go into all hurricane season
predictions that you're likely to see.
So whether we're talking about howbad they're predicting a season to be.
Or we're looking back on pastyears and talking about what
(02:35):
happened in those years storm wise.
We'll always referencethese three to four things.
Now, if you think about a. An average yearaccording to noaa, which is the National
Oceanic Atmospheric Administration,according to noaa and also data from
Colorado State University between 1991and 2020, so about 30 years there.
(03:03):
The average hurricaneseason had 14 named storms.
Seven hurricanes and thenthree major hurricanes.
Major hurricane beingcategory three or higher.
And then there's a fourththing that they mentioned.
The average year would have anaccumulated cyclone energy index or
(03:23):
ACE index of between 70 and 110 units.
Talk about what that means in a moment.
Now keep in mind when we say named storms.
Any storm that forms out in the Atlanticand gets above a certain strength is going
to get a name and a substantial number ofnamed storms in every hurricane season.
(03:46):
They never make it to the us.
They may form out in the Atlantic,they may fizzle out in the Atlantic,
or they may curve away from theUnited States, go somewhere else.
Substantial number of named stormsnever actually make landfall.
And so when we say the average season has14 named storms, we're not talking about.
(04:08):
14 storms hitting the south oreast coast of the United States.
Now, we mentioned thisthing called an ACE index.
What is the ACE index?
Well, broadly speaking, this accumulatedcyclone energy index, it's a way.
To express the total strength and durationof these tropical and subtropical storms
(04:31):
that happen throughout a hurricane season.
Now, what Noah will do whenthey're describing or classifying a
hurricane season, they will defaultto looking primarily at the ACE
value for that particular year.
They may also mention the numberof storms and major hurricanes,
but really the ACE index.
For the National Oceanic AtmosphericAdministration, ACE value's really gonna
(04:56):
be the primary thing that they willpoint to when they say for example, that
2022 was a below average year, or 2024was an above average hurricane season.
Now, how do you calculate the ACE value?
Because right now it's, itdoesn't mean anything to us.
Well, the ACE value iscalculated for each storm.
(05:19):
And so for any particular storm, firstthing they do is they wait until that
storm exceeds the threshold for tropicalstorm strength, which is having sustained
wind speeds of 39 miles an hour or higher.
Once a storm reaches that,they'll start taking wind
speed measurements and they'll.
(05:41):
Take measurements of a storm's maximumsustained wind speed at a given point in
time, and they'll express that in knots.
Now you've heard knots, K-N-O-T-S-Aknot is about 1.2 miles per hour.
So think of if a storm has, if ifwind speed is 50 miles an hour,
that's about 40 knots, give or take.
(06:04):
Okay?
So they take a measurement.
Of the wind speed in knots.
Then what they do is they squarethat and they divide by 10,000.
Then they keep takingmeasurements every six hours.
Until the storm drops or stopsbeing at Tropical Storm strength.
(06:26):
And then once the storm, once the stormdrops below, that essentially goes away,
they'll add all those up and we'll say,this is that storm's ACE index value.
So let's take an example.
Let's say that we have a moderate.
A tropical storm, one that has the windspeeds of 45 knots, which we'll say
(06:47):
for kicks is about 60 miles an hour.
Okay.
But it's sustains those, it'll, theylast for about three days, 72 hours.
So we'll assume that that's.
12 readings might be 13, but we'll say 12.
Okay.
So they have 12 readings andeach reading, let's say it
kept that wind speed, 45 knots.
(07:08):
So each reading would be 45 squareddivided by 10,000, which if you've got a
calculator, you know what that number is.
But basically that's about 0.2.
Each reading, they had 12 readings.
That means that when it's all said anddone, that storm had an ACE index value of
about 2.4, which isn't really that much.
(07:30):
But remember, we weren't talkingabout a particularly powerful storm.
So that's the ACE Index or how theycalculate the ACE index for one storm.
The total ACE index for a givenhurricane season is a single number.
That's all of the ACE indexes for all thestorms that happened, all added together.
And so once you realize what itis, you realize that ACE Index is.
(07:53):
Pretty useful for, for reflecting.
Not just, how many storms occurred,but really how long their storms
lasted for and how intense they were.
It should be pretty easyto see that the ACE index.
Reflects this or confirms, makesus see that this idea that how bad
a storm is isn't just reflected insomething like, well, how, you know,
(08:15):
what is its maximum wind speed.
It really matters for sayinghow powerful a storm is.
It really matters, not just ifthe winds are strong, but how
long they are strong for now.
The highest ACE index for agiven hurricane season in a
year happened way back in 1933.
(08:38):
It was 258.6.
Now keep in mind though, 1933 wasbefore they had weather satellites.
That means that in actuality, that yearmight have actually been worse than
that because there might have been anynumber of smaller storms that just didn't
happen to get counted 'cause they didn'thave satellites keeping track of them.
(08:59):
Let's go to a more recent couple ofyears that will be more meaningful us.
If you remember the years 2004and 2005 when we had storm after
storm after major hurricane afterstorm just coming up and just.
Pummeling the Southern United States2005 had the second highest ACE index
(09:23):
in recorded history, 250 and 2004.
The year before it was,I think, fifth highest.
All times.
So those were pretty bad yearsin the ACE Index reflects that.
Now in terms of how powerful single stormsare, the record holder is from a storm
that happened way back in 1893 that hasthe single record, the the, the single
(09:50):
storm record for the highest ACE index.
But Hurricane Ivan back in2004 has the second highest.
One, it has an asy index of over 70.
Now, how did it get so high?
Well, let's talk about someof Biden's characteristics.
Ivan was a storm that reallycombined really powerful winds,
(10:11):
unusually powerful winds.
That happened over anunusually long period of time.
Ivan, as a storm, actually lastedfor over three weeks, had at its
peak the max wind speeds for Ivanwere 165 miles an hour, which I'm
pretty sure makes it a category five.
But more importantly, for compilingthis high ACE index, it stayed as a
(10:35):
major hurricane that's category threeor higher for 10 consecutive days, which
is the longest time in recorded history.
So those kinds of things are thethings that you have to all have.
To fall into place for, in orderfor you to end up with an ACE index
as high as 70, which I haven't had.
Alright, so that's enough about the past.
(10:56):
Let's talk about what are the predictionsfor the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?
So October 10th, the groupTropical Storm Risks.
C released its, or their extendedrange forecast for the 2025 season,
they predicted what could be no lookedat as an average hurricane season.
(11:17):
They said 15 named storms, sevenhurricanes, three major hurricanes.
Now, they did note that thisforecast that they were coming out
with first had, as they put it,higher than normal uncertainty due
to, well, any number of things.
Including the fact that it'sthe one furthest in the past,
(11:40):
furthest away from events.
Go to beginning of April wetypically expect to start seeing
more forecasts, and so Colorado Statereleases its forecast on April 3rd.
They predict an above average hurricane.
Season 17, named storms nine hurricanes.
Four major hurricanes.
(12:02):
And unlike tropical storm, thetropical storm group, Colorado
State made an ACE index prediction.
They said we predict 155.
Now 155 is substantiallyhigher than the average season.
You remember seventy two, a hundredand ten would be about average.
And the reason that they citedthat is they said there's gonna
(12:24):
be warm Atlantic sea temperatures.
And the La Nina system that'sbeen present out in the Pacific
is gonna weaken and essentiallygo away, become neutral by summer.
And so those things are gonna contributeto having a more active hurricane season.
So that's Colorado State.
Four days later, TSR, the tropicalstorm risk group updates their
(12:45):
forecast, but they double down onpredicting a near average season.
Okay, so two groups.
One predicting above average,one predicting about average
University of Arizona chimes in.
They post their forecast, they're callingfor a normal hurricane season 15, named
(13:06):
storms, seven hurricanes, three majorhurricanes, and they predict an ACE
index of 110, which is about normal.
So all told, when you look at theconsensus, including at whatever NCC.
They predicted the consensus sofar is they're predicting 15 named
(13:28):
storms, seven to eight hurricanes,three major hurricanes, which means
about a normal hurricane season.
Now the ACE predictions on the other handare, have a little bit more variance.
Remember, Arizona Statepredicted 110 units.
Colorado State predicted155 units, which is.
(13:49):
25% above average.
And then there were a couple otherpredictions that slotted in between those.
Why is there so much differencein those predictions?
Well.
Appears to come down to how mucheffect that a particular group
thinks the C surface temperatures aregonna have in the upcoming season.
(14:11):
See, Colorado State is basing theirprediction of an ACE Index 155.
They're predicting it on or basingit rather on the assumption that the
water temperatures on the sea surfaceare going to be warmer than usual.
Now, if they're right about that.
Their predictions a lot more likely tobe closer to what's gonna happen because
(14:33):
warmer sea temperatures are a big, bigdriver of hurricane storm activity.
Now, by contrast, tropical storm risk.
They happen to think that the seasurface temperatures aren't going
to be that much warmer than usual.
They think that the sea surfacetemperatures are gonna be pretty normal,
(14:54):
which is why they predict an ACE index.
Much closer to the historical average now.
So that's the predictions for 2025.
How do those compare to the activitywe've seen from the past few years?
We asked that question.
We can start to put this intoa little bit of perspective.
So, last year, 2024.
(15:16):
2024 season was actually.
More active than usual, andthat's exactly what they predicted
it was gonna be at the start.
We ended up having 18 named storms.
We ended up having 11 hurricanesand we had five major hurricanes.
The predictions were 20 named storms,11 hurricanes, five major ones.
(15:38):
So you see overall.
The, the, the reality, the predictionsweren't that far off of the reality.
2024. Also, the ASIN index for2024 ended up being 161.6, 161.
That made places 2024 really firmlyinto the above average year category.
(16:01):
161 for an asy index actually putslast year around, I think it's 16th,
so firmly in the top 20 all time forbusiest Atlantic hurricane seasons now.
What made 2024 so busy?
Well.
I know people have short memories,so we'll recite some names.
(16:21):
2024 had at least threesignificant storms that really
contributed to that elevated asex.
There was, if you remember,there's Hurricane Barrel,
hurricane Milton, hurricane Kirk.
These are pretty, pretty big storms, bothin strength and duration, and you may
have forgotten, but Hurricane Barrel.
(16:43):
Was actually the earliest categoryfive hurricane on record in
the Atlantic that they found.
So summary, what should we expect for theupcoming 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?
And then later we're gonna talkabout what does that tell us or does
that tell us anything about what weshould be doing to prepare for that?
(17:07):
Well, the predictions are, it'snot going to be a quiet season.
It may not end up being as busy oras, as bad as the seasons were in 2017
or 2024, much less, you know, 2004,2005, all of which were, shall we say,
historically active hurricane seasons.
(17:27):
But the predictions are pretty muchin consensus that 2020 five's likely
not going to be coming in likea lamb either like 2015 or 2022.
We were years that were unusuallyquiet in terms of hurricane activity.
And so that's gonna do it for thisepisode of the Fuel Pulse Show Podcast.
(17:50):
What we're gonna do in the next episodeis we're gonna piggyback off of this,
and we're gonna talk about, now that weknow what we might expect in terms of.
Activity for this hurricane season.
We wanna ask the question, what, whatshould that lead us to do in response?
How should we preparefor hurricane season?
(18:11):
Especially if we are in, let's say,the hospital and healthcare industry
or the telecom industry, which aretwo industries that customers really
rely on services being availableand having zero interruptions
whatsoever, and that means that.
It's really important for thesegroups to have viable emergency
(18:32):
backup systems, including emergencybackup fuel that helps them get
through a hurricane season withoutany disruptions to their customers.
So we'll talk about what some ofthe recommendations are gonna be for
those sectors specifically as well.
So we'll talk about that in the nextepisode of the Fuel Pulse Show Podcast.
In the meantime, thankyou for joining me today.
(18:55):
We as usual, we will havelinks to everything that we
talked about in the show notes.
And if you haven't already, feel free tosubscribe to the Fuel Pulse Show podcast
on your podcast platform or choice, beit app iTunes Amazon Podcast, Stitcher.
Spotify, wherever you most preferto get your podcast information
(19:17):
from, feel free to subscribe.
Leave us a good rating if youfeel so inclined, 'cause that's
also something that is helpfulfor people finding us as well.
So, till next time, I am your host,Eric Bjornstad, and I will see
you next time for the next episodeof the Fuel Pulse Show podcast.
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