Innovation Partnership Autopsy: HP, Fossil, and the Smartwatch Market

Innovation partnerships can create breakthrough markets—or hand them to competitors through terrible decisions. I know because I lived through both outcomes.

Bill Geiser from Fossil and I had it exactly right. We built the MetaWatch—a smartwatch with week-long battery life, Bluetooth connectivity, and every feature that would later make the Apple Watch successful. We had HP's massive retail reach, Fossil's manufacturing scale, and the technical vision to create an entirely new market.

But our organizations couldn't execute on what we knew was right. Leadership chaos at HP and innovation paralysis at Fossil killed a partnership that should have dominated the smartwatch market—handing Apple a $50 billion opportunity. I've shared the complete behind-the-scenes story of the people, strategies, and decisions that killed our partnership in my Studio Notes post "How HP and Fossil Handed Apple the Smartwatch Market."

Today I'm applying the DECIDE framework to our partnership failure. If you haven't seen my DECIDE framework yet, grab the free PDF—it's the innovation decision tool I've developed over 30 years of making high-stakes choices. Because here's what this partnership taught me: having the right vision means nothing without the right decision framework.

What Makes Innovation Partnerships Different?

Let me start by explaining why the HP-Fossil partnership should have worked. This wasn't just another business deal—it was the perfect storm of complementary capabilities.

Bill Geiser, Fossil's VP of Watch Technology, had been working on smartwatches since 2004. The man was practically clairvoyant. In 2011, he told me, "Phil, I wouldn't be shocked if Apple evolved the Nano to take advantage of this space. They'll legitimize it in consumers' minds worldwide."

Bill understood something most people missed: Apple didn't need to be first to market—they needed to be first to create a platform.

Meanwhile, I was developing HP's connected device strategy. We had the technology foundation, unmatched retail distribution—about 10% of consumer electronics shelf space—and the same retail muscle that helped launch the original iPod.

Together, Bill and I had solved the hard problems. We had the vision, the technology, and the market insight. But we couldn't overcome the organizational machinery that prioritizes short-term comfort over long-term position.

Innovation partnerships aren't just about having the right technology or market vision. They're about having the right decision framework when uncertainty meets organizational reality.

The Three Partnership Decision Traps

Before I show you how DECIDE could have saved our partnership, let me show you the three traps that derail even the smartest collaboration. Bill and I understood what needed to happen, but our organizations fell into every one of these traps.

Trap #1: Innovation Type Mismatch

This is when you apply the wrong decision framework because you've misidentified what type of innovation you're actually pursuing. It's the most common partnership killer because different innovation types require completely different approaches to risk, timing, and success metrics.

In our case, Bill and I understood that smartwatches represented a platform opportunity—a new ecosystem that would change how people interact with technology. But our organizations treated it as a product extension that wouldn't threaten their existing businesses.

HP's leadership viewed MetaWatch as another device in their portfolio, rather than as the foundation of a connected ecosystem spanning tablets, phones, and laptops. Fossil's leadership saw it as a "development platform" priced at $200—innovation theater that wouldn't cannibalize their traditional watch sales.

Here's the partne