The $1.2 Billion Innovation Disaster: 5 Decision Mistakes That Kill Breakthrough Technology (HP WebOS Case Study)

In 2011, HP killed a $1.2 billion innovation in just 49 days. I was the Chief Technology Officer who recommended buying it. What happened next reveals why smart people consistently destroy breakthrough technology—and the systematic framework you need to avoid making the same mistake.

HP had just spent $1.2 billion acquiring Palm to get WebOS—one of the most advanced mobile operating systems ever created. It had true multitasking when iOS and Android couldn't handle it, an elegant interface design, and breakthrough platform technology. I led the technical due diligence and recommended the acquisition because I believed we were buying the future of mobile computing.

We launched it on the HP TouchPad tablet. Then, the CEO killed it just 49 days after launch.

Here's a question that should keep every innovation leader awake at night: How do you destroy breakthrough technology worth over a billion dollars in less than two months?

The answer isn't what you think. It's not about bad technology, poor market timing, or insufficient resources. It's about systematic thinking errors that intelligent people make when evaluating innovation under pressure. And these same patterns are happening in companies everywhere, right now.

I'm going to show you exactly how this happens, why your company is vulnerable to the same mistakes, and give you a proven framework to prevent these disasters before they destroy your next breakthrough innovation.

On my Studio Notes on Substack, I share the personal story of watching this unfold while recovering from surgery. In this episode, I want to focus on the systematic patterns that caused this disaster and the decision framework that can prevent it.

Here's my promise: by the end of this episode, you'll understand the five thinking errors that consistently destroy innovation value, you'll have a complete decision framework to avoid these traps, and you'll know exactly how to apply this to your current innovation decisions.

Because here's what this disaster taught me: intelligence doesn't predict decision quality. Systematic thinking frameworks do.

The Pattern That Destroys Billion-Dollar Innovations

Let me start with the fundamental problem that makes these disasters predictable. When the HP Board hired Leo Apotheker as CEO, they created what I call a "cognitive mismatch," and it reveals why smart people make terrible innovation decisions.

Apotheker came from SAP, where he'd run a $15 billion software company. HP was a $125 billion technology company with breakthrough mobile platform technology. The board put someone whose largest organizational experience was half the size of HP's smallest division in charge of evaluating platform innovations he'd never encountered before.

But here's the crucial insight: the problem wasn't his experience level. The problem was how his professional background created mental blind spots that made him literally unable to see WebOS as an opportunity.

Here's what's dangerous: Apotheker couldn't see WebOS as valuable because his entire career taught him that software companies don't do hardware. His brain was wired to see hardware as a distraction, not an advantage. To him, WebOS represented exactly the kind of hardware business he wanted to eliminate.

Your expertise becomes your blind spot. You literally can't see opportunities outside your professional comfort zone.

And this is the first critical principle: Your job background creates mental filters that determine what opportunities you can even see.

And this pattern is happening in your company right now. Your finance team evaluates platform investments using metrics designed for traditional products. Your marketing team rejects concepts they can't explain with existing frameworks. Your engineers dismiss breakthrough ideas that don't fit current technical roadmaps.

The pattern is always identica