The Crypto Rundown 301: White Walkers and The Shadows

Mark Longo welcomes Greg Magadini of Amberdata for The Crypto Rundown to dissect the crypto market's weakness following the latest Fed meeting. As Bitcoin (BTC) drops back below the $90,000 level and altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) pull back, the hosts analyze critical volatility indicators and options flow to determine if a full "crypto winter" is approaching, or if it's time to buy the dip.

Key Discussion Points & Trading Insights

• Is Winter Coming? Bitcoin has pulled back $4,000 post-FOMC, leading to a highly divided audience poll on whether to buy the dip or prepare for more downside.

• Vol Skew Analysis: The volatility surface has fundamentally reshaped since the summer, with long-dated Put Skew (puts more expensive than calls) priced in all the way out to 180 days. Greg explains how this positioning suggests IBIT holders are well-hedged.

• Critical Inflection Point: Analysis of Gamma Exposure profiles pinpoints the $85,000 strike as the key downside level for dealers, separating consolidation from a major crash risk.

• Understanding Shadow Term Structure: Greg explains this cool Amberdata tool, which acts as a time-lapse for volatility, allowing traders to compare current term structure to historical trends.

• Hottest Crypto Options: Dissection of trades in IBIT (Bitcoin ETF) and the highly speculative MSTU (leveraged MicroStrategy). Learn why the MSTU upside is a favorite sell for premium collectors.

• Altcoin Universe: Analysis of Ethereum (ETH) falling below $3,000, Solana (SOL) (SOL) at $125, and their relative volatility against each other.

• Trading Strategy: Greg explains why he prefers to sell long-term puts on assets like Circle (C) to finance long-term call spreads, capturing high Vega exposure before expected volatility repricing.

Volatility Data Covered:

• BTC, ETH Volatility (7-Day, 30-Day, 180-Day)

• BTC, ETH Vol Skew & Risk Reversal

• IBIT Options Flow (Dec 52/54 Vertical)