Volatility Views 662: Looking Back on a Wild Year in Volatility

Happy New Year, Vol Maniacs! Mark Longo kicks off 2026 by welcoming Jim Carroll (The Vixologist) to the first Volatility Views of the year. Jim helps us close the books on 2025. From the "Tariff Tantrum" to the birth of the proprietary "VIX Mix," we break down the trends, trades, and traps that defined the volatility landscape over the last 12 months.

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Volatility Review: The 2025 Autopsy

• The Tariff Tantrum: Why April 2025 became the apex of volatility for the year, sending VIX cash to an intraday high near 60.

• VIX Cash Highlights: A look back at the 17.93 start in January and the contentiousness of the year-end 14.95 close.

• The "VIX Mix" Debrief: Jim Carroll breaks down the first full year of his 17-component composite indicator.

• Realized Volatility: Why 2025 saw a wider range of realized vol than 2024, yet remained "well-behaved" compared to 2022 or 2020.

• Credit Market Canaries: Why the Move Index and corporate bond behavior were the secret drummers for equity volatility this year.

Trades & Trends: Where Money Lived (And Died)

• The 15 Put Trap: Why the VIX 15 put strike was the ultimate "scratch-off ticket" that never paid off for retail traders.

• The 47.5 Call Mystery: Analyzing the massive, recurring upside rolls that dominated the tape all year.

• Capital Efficiency: A look at the bizarre VIX 200 put spreads and the shifting of institutional volume from futures into options.

• The Vol Fade Game: Performance reviews of SVXY, VXX, and the opportunity to scoop SVX during the April dip.

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The Crystal Ball: Predictions for 2026

The team kicks off the new year's prediction game. Will 2026 be the year of the 23.00 VIX?

 

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Resources & Links

• Follow Jim Carroll: Twitter/X: @vixologist

• Brokerage Spotlight: tastytrade.com/podcasts

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