The Political Trade

The Political Trade

The Political Trade is the only podcast devoted to political freaks and probability geeks seeking fun and profit in the political prediction markets. Host Jeff Joseph joins elite prediction market traders, polling experts, data scientists, and political insiders offering actionable insights on the week’s best trading opportunities. The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. TPT listeners can get a free 10-issue digital subscription at getluckbox.com Join in on the political wagering at predictit.org/promo/TPT20 and we'll match the first $20 you invest. Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @luckboxmag @politicaltrader INSTAGRAM: @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp... Show More

Episodes

December 16, 2020 77 min

Rutgers University’s Harry Crane discusses his new research comparing the accuracy of polling models with the prediction markets following the November election, giving FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver another reason to troll tweet. 

Also, Trafalgar Group’s Robert Cahaly tips off TPT to some potentially market-moving poll results he is about to release about the upcoming Georgia Senate races.

Follow Harry Crane on Twitter @HarryDC...

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In this special episode, Libertarian Party presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen teaches Libertarian 101. Dr. Jorgensen takes us to school about “shy Libertarian voters,” wasted red & blue votes, victimless crimes, Seagrams, meth, Edward Snowden, pre-existing medical conditions, big tech, the Clemson Tigers & cask-strength whiskey.

Visit jo20.com and follow Jo Jorgensen on Twitter @Jorgensen4POTUS and @LPNational.

 

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Republicans, Democrats, partisans & wingnuts … There’s something for everyone in this special recap episode featuring favorite guests, moments and trades from our last 30 episodes. In the second half of the episode, Star Spangled Gamblers’ Pratik Chougule shares his post-VP debate analysis, as well as some trade ideas.

TRENDS

  • Our No-Fly Debate Zone
  • Pratik Chougule Predicts a Wave
  • TRADES

  • Florida Blues
  • Longshot, or EC Money?
  • Follow...

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    Before you place any more political bets, check out pollster Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group’s explanation of why he beat his polling peers in the past two election cycles, how he nailed the Electoral College outcome in 2016 and why the polls are wrong again in 2020. Cahaly calls the swing states, two key Senate toss-ups and some Luckbox Longshot trades for less than a dime.

    TRENDS

  • The Polls Are Wrong—Here’s Why
  • There IS a Shy Trum...
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    Professional gambler Paul Krishnamurty returns to The Political Trade after going four-for-four on his prior trades. Paul shares his Biden-favoring election day hedging strategy, three new high-return trades and a Luckbox Lockbox trade with a big upside!

    TRENDS

  • U.K. & Betfair Pricing 
  • RBG and the Debates
  • 2016 Misdeeds & Midterm Misreads
  • TACTICS:

  • High-Performance Biden Hedges
  • Swinging for the Swing States
  • TRADES

  • Popular Vote Mo...
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    Super-trader Jason Pipkin returns to The Political Trade after nailing major forecasts ahead of Super Tuesday in his first appearance. This time, he’s sharing the essential tips, tricks and skills necessary to trade successfully—and profitably—on election night.

    TRENDS

  • Jason’s contest for political traders
  • TACTICS: Election Night

  • The County Line
  • Florida, Man & NC State
  • The Websites You Need to Know
  • TRADES

  • Buy Biden Better
  • The Safe...
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    Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at The American University, holds “The Keys to the White House” — his proven, proprietary model for forecasting presidential elections that correctly called the 2016 election for Donald Trump, as well as every other presidential outcome since 1984. This TPT episode compares the model’s predictive accuracy to polling, and delves into each of Lichtman’s proprietary 13 Keys.

    "The Keys to the ...

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    Former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich returns for Part 2 of his TPT appearance. In Part 2, Blago enters the trading pits of PredictIt.org, analyzing the markets and sharing his unique perspectives, opinions and forecasts as a former state governor.

    A total of eight markets are called in all, including the market for Paul Manafort’s clemency, markets for a couple key battleground states, a more obscure Illinois-focused market, an...

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    When he took office in 2003, Rod Blagojevich was the first Democrat elected to be Illinois’ governor in 30 years. Riding a populist wave, he racked up progressive political victories until he was taken into federal custody on corruption charges in 2008.

    After serving eight years of his 14-year sentence, Blagojevich had his sentence commuted by President Donald Trump in February 2020. In this provocative two-part series, the former ...

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    Mark Vargas has more than earned his political insider credentials as the so-called “mystery man” who achieved the impossible: nearly single-handedly brokering Trump’s commutation of former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s 14-year prison sentence.

    But that’s not all. Vargas also assisted in securing Roger Stone’s recent commutation. He tells the full story, as well as sharing his insights on Jared Kushner, Kanye West, Mark Cuban, Mi...

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    David Rothschild rings the TPT bell, and Nate Silver’s ears are ringing. Rothschild, a Microsoft Research data scientist and economist, breaks down prediction markets and takes down FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver in a discussion about the relative merits of polling vs. prediction markets. In Part 2, Rothschild enters the trading pits and serves up Electoral College and Florida trading ideas. 

    Follow Rothschild on Twitter @DavMic...

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    Longtime prediction market trader Travis Lloyd, known to PredictIt traders as “baselevel,” brings more than just an impressive (and verified) tale of how he turned a $50 investment into $120,000. He also brings scotch! Travis shares some of his political insights, a trick he uses for achieving upwards of a third of his returns, why he’s negative on negative risk and three trade ideas.

    TIPPLES

  • Glenlivet 15, FEW Bourbon & Usquaeb...
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    Washington Post data analyst and political columnist David Byler talks partisanship and the BLM movement’s likely impact on the upcoming presidential election.

    In the TRADES segment, he enters the PredictIt trading pits with 12 forecasts, including seven state general elections, Mike Pence, the Democratic VP and yet another Luckbox Lockbox trade!

    Subscribe to David’s weekly newsletter, The Odds, where he shares what we can — and ca...

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    This year’s Fourth of July saw fireworks not only erupting in the sky, but also on social media following a viral tweet by Kanye West. The rapper, singer, songwriter, record producer, composer, entrepreneur, and fashion designer may soon don a new title: presidential candidate. In this breaking news episode of TPT, we go through the biggest stories moving the markets on PredictIt, dedicating special attention to West’s potential pr...

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    Equipped with raw intuition and unique insights, Dylan Ratigan returns in Part 2, ready to tackle the prediction markets of PredictIt. Wasting no time, Dylan walks through a total of 10 markets, sharing the picks he thinks have the highest probability in each. TRADES include: Handicapping Biden’s health through November, Senate control, the Electoral College and Michelle Obama’s fandom. Dylan then jumps to Trump mispricing and ends...

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    Dylan Ratigan has so much to say about what is wrong with politics today, it took two episodes. We begin by asking Dylan to revisit his memorably viral on-air MSNBC rant. Also in Part 1, Dylan riffs on partisanship, redistricting, ranked balloting, running for office, the two-party system and prediction markets’ political biases.

    The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE 10-issue dig...

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    Not all headlines are clickbait — at the request of a TPT listener, this episode explains the ins and outs of a political prediction market strategy that results in free money! It's called “Negative Risk.” Tricky at first, but TPT super trader Scott “Sazerac” Supak uses the Democratic VP market to illustrate the trading tactic where the house pays you back for each new trade.

    TPT Mailbag

  • Rachel Bitecofer, PredictIt’s Tweet Retr...
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    In this special episode, we walk Rachel “the Doc” Bitecofer, the hottest hand in election handicapping, into the political trading pit for her very first time. She earned her cred by nailing the 2018 midterms, and her 2020 election model is the talk of the Beltway. So we put her to work, talking through more than a dozen prediction markets and sharing her most promising forecasts.

  • Part 1: Profiting From Political Partisanship (2:4...
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    Against the backdrop of President Trump’s Twitter feuds and recent executive order regarding social media censorship, TPT enlists super trader Derek Phillips (the $400,000 man from Episodes 5 and 6) to tackle PredictIt’s notorious tweet markets, currently accounting for as much as 80% of his prediction market fortune. Secrets shared—must listen.

    TRENDS (10:23)

  • Executive Orders, Recession & Minny-markets
  • TACTICS (22:21)

  • Masterin...
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    May 21, 2020 27 min

    In this bonus episode, TPT’s Jeff Joseph joins Barstool Sports’ Hard Factor News team to talk about politics, prediction markets and some unusual laws governing the state of Florida.

    Many thanks to Hard Factor’s Wes, Mark, Will and Pat for letting us share this previously aired Hard Factor segment. Find them on the Barstool Sports Network.

     

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