The Political Trade

The Political Trade

The Political Trade is the only podcast devoted to political freaks and probability geeks seeking fun and profit in the political prediction markets. Host Jeff Joseph joins elite prediction market traders, polling experts, data scientists, and political insiders offering actionable insights on the week’s best trading opportunities. The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. TPT listeners can get a free 10-issue digital subscription at getluckbox.com Join in on the political wagering at predictit.org/promo/TPT20 and we'll match the first $20 you invest. Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @luckboxmag @politicaltrader INSTAGRAM: @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp... Show More

Episodes

July 15, 2020 55 min

Longtime prediction market trader Travis Lloyd, known to PredictIt traders as “baselevel,” brings more than just an impressive (and verified) tale of how he turned a $50 investment into $120,000. He also brings scotch! Travis shares some of his political insights, a trick he uses for achieving upwards of a third of his returns, why he’s negative on negative risk and three trade ideas.

TIPPLES

  • Glenlivet 15, FEW Bourbon & Usquaeb...
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    Washington Post data analyst and political columnist David Byler talks partisanship and the BLM movement’s likely impact on the upcoming presidential election.

    In the TRADES segment, he enters the PredictIt trading pits with 12 forecasts, including seven state general elections, Mike Pence, the Democratic VP and yet another Luckbox Lockbox trade!

    Subscribe to David’s weekly newsletter, The Odds, where he shares what we can — and ca...

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    This year’s Fourth of July saw fireworks not only erupting in the sky, but also on social media following a viral tweet by Kanye West. The rapper, singer, songwriter, record producer, composer, entrepreneur, and fashion designer may soon don a new title: presidential candidate. In this breaking news episode of TPT, we go through the biggest stories moving the markets on PredictIt, dedicating special attention to West’s potential pr...

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    Equipped with raw intuition and unique insights, Dylan Ratigan returns in Part 2, ready to tackle the prediction markets of PredictIt. Wasting no time, Dylan walks through a total of 10 markets, sharing the picks he thinks have the highest probability in each. TRADES include: Handicapping Biden’s health through November, Senate control, the Electoral College and Michelle Obama’s fandom. Dylan then jumps to Trump mispricing and ends...

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    Dylan Ratigan has so much to say about what is wrong with politics today, it took two episodes. We begin by asking Dylan to revisit his memorably viral on-air MSNBC rant. Also in Part 1, Dylan riffs on partisanship, redistricting, ranked balloting, running for office, the two-party system and prediction markets’ political biases.

    The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE 10-issue dig...

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    Not all headlines are clickbait — at the request of a TPT listener, this episode explains the ins and outs of a political prediction market strategy that results in free money! It's called “Negative Risk.” Tricky at first, but TPT super trader Scott “Sazerac” Supak uses the Democratic VP market to illustrate the trading tactic where the house pays you back for each new trade.

    TPT Mailbag

  • Rachel Bitecofer, PredictIt’s Tweet Retr...
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    In this special episode, we walk Rachel “the Doc” Bitecofer, the hottest hand in election handicapping, into the political trading pit for her very first time. She earned her cred by nailing the 2018 midterms, and her 2020 election model is the talk of the Beltway. So we put her to work, talking through more than a dozen prediction markets and sharing her most promising forecasts.

  • Part 1: Profiting From Political Partisanship (2:4...
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    Against the backdrop of President Trump’s Twitter feuds and recent executive order regarding social media censorship, TPT enlists super trader Derek Phillips (the $400,000 man from Episodes 5 and 6) to tackle PredictIt’s notorious tweet markets, currently accounting for as much as 80% of his prediction market fortune. Secrets shared—must listen.

    TRENDS (10:23)

  • Executive Orders, Recession & Minny-markets
  • TACTICS (22:21)

  • Masterin...
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    May 21, 2020 27 min

    In this bonus episode, TPT’s Jeff Joseph joins Barstool Sports’ Hard Factor News team to talk about politics, prediction markets and some unusual laws governing the state of Florida.

    Many thanks to Hard Factor’s Wes, Mark, Will and Pat for letting us share this previously aired Hard Factor segment. Find them on the Barstool Sports Network.

     

    The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE ...

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    May 15, 2020 60 min

    TPT’s Jeff Joseph moderates a prediction market-focused panel consisting of former guests Derek Phillips and Jason Pipkin as well as Pratik Chougule. Jeff asks the panelists about their trading philosophies, tactics and insights into specific markets on the PredictIt platform.

    This segment originally aired during hour four of American Civics Exchange and Old Bull TV’s 2020 Political Prediction Conference on April 24. Special thanks...

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    JMark — political trader, poker pro and attorney — shares the trading strategy that placed him among PredictIt’s top 15 “oracle” traders. Mark uses poker disciplines to illustrate expected value (EV+), reveals an essential trading tool and rings the TPT bell, sharing his best bets in the prediction markets today, including some “locks.” Follow JMark on Twitter @Pete_Monahan_JD.

    TRENDS

  • NY Primary Color, Ventura Highway &...
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    Political trader and analyst Alex “Keendawg” Keeney rings the TPT bell on a big breaking news day. Alex shares his contrarian perspectives on exploiting bias as a prediction market trader, Joe Biden’s sexual abuse allegations and a latecomer Libertarian to the presidential race. Follow Alex at starspangledgamblers.com

     

    TRENDS

  • Jesse, Justin & White Male Prediction Market Traders
  • TACTICS

  • Fade the Fad
  • TRADES

  • Biden/Democratic Misp...
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    Paul Krishnamurty, a professional London-based political gambler and analyst for Betfair, joins TPT to share his perspective on U.S. political wagering, the explosive growth of political wagering in the U.K., and five PredictIt markets picks. Follow Paul’s blog at politicalgambler.com.

    TRENDS

  • U.K. Wagering on U.S. Politics
  • TACTICS

  • Betting to the VP Shortlist (Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact)
  • TRADES

  • Buying Angela 
  • Rising Arizona
  • Gideon’s...
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    James Carville, master political strategist, MSNBC analyst and self-proclaimed “man of many vices” joins TPT to share his thoughts on the Biden candidacy and several key PredictIt markets, including a high-payout longshot pick for Biden’s VP!

     

    Carville dishes on Sanders supporters, "The Squad” and Trump, and reveals the magic number that he uses to calculate election probabilities and outcomes on. Carville shares his picks on ...

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    John Phillips, CEO of Aristotle, the engine behind PredictIt, joins TPT to talk about the convergence of politics and prediction markets, and developing an atomic bomb in college.

    To best understand PredictIt is to know its history. This bonus episode pulls back the curtain—trader demographics, new markets, and a new partnership. John also shares his perspectives as a 30-year politico on two of the most active markets: EU Next Lead...

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    Hard Factor’s Mark, Wes & Will share their takes on today’s news, their worst mistakes and their best bets.

    TRENDS

  • Dire Straits v Death, Cuomo’s nipple rings, errant Burr & more.
  • TACTICS

  • Don’t make these prediction market gambling mistakes!
  • TRADES

  • Will’s VP pick
  • Wes eyes a Biden layup
  • Mark paints Texas (red v blue)
  • LUCKBOX OF THE WEEK

  • Hint: The tiger king’s ears are ringing
  •  

    Follow @hardfactormark, @hardfactorwes &am...

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    EPISODE HIGHLIGHTS:

  • iSavage Explains the “Always sell at 90¢” Rule 
  • TRENDS

  • Cuomo, VP Stakes (Warren v. Harris) & Recession Outlook
  • TACTICS

  • So, really...do you always sell at 90¢?
  • TOOLS

  • @pi_twets for market alerts
  • TRADES

  • Wisconsin Bells
  • Netanyahu—Yes or No?
  • Fauci: 35 Years v. 35 Days
  • LUCKBOX OF THE WEEK

  • Hint: Burr—It’s Cold in Carolina
  • The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine, follow the link...

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    HIGHLIGHTS:

  • A revealing bonus episode with Anthony Scaramucci—hedge fund manager, author, political insider and former White House Communications Director for President Trump. 
  • Part 1:  Pandemic, Politics, Trump & the Media
  • Part 2:  The Mooch Reveals His Best Trades
  • TRADES

  • Scaramucci Handicaps Clemency for Stone, the Swing States, Netanyahu, Sessions, Trump & Kim, Pence, Recession, Trump v Biden and his surprising VP pick!
  • ...

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    March 18, 2020 46 min

    EPISODE HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Derek Phillips reviews seven total trades
  • TRENDS

  • Bernie, Tulsi, Sessions & Stone
  • TACTICS

  • Selling against the news in bracketed markets
  • TRADES

  • Oregon Origami
  • Trump’s Recession
  • Minny in Blue
  • Going Back to Ohio
  • LUCKBOX OF THE WEEK

  • Hint: Never Mind the Bullock
  • The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine, follow the link for a free 10-issue digital subscription today: getluckbox.com

    J...

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    March 11, 2020 49 min

    EPISODE HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Derek Phillips Kills It
  • TRENDS

  • The iSavage Rule 
  • VP Stakes Takes
  • TACTICS

  • Flipping, Scalping & Grinding 
  • TRADES

  • Bernie & Tulsi: Against All Odds
  • Throw Roger Stone a Bone?
  • Jeff Session Delicatessen
  • LUCKBOX OF THE WEEK

  • Hint: A Big Red Peach
  • The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine, follow the link for a free 10-issue digital subscription today: getluckbox.com

    Join in on the w...

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