The Prediction Trade

If you can bet on it, you can bet we’ll talk about it on The Prediction Trade! Whether it’s sports, politics, financial markets, weather, the economy or pop culture, you’re only a few clicks away from placing legal wagers on all sorts of events and outcomes. The Prediction Trade lives at the intersection of probability, prediction and profit. We take a stats- and facts-based approach to wagering and trading in the prediction markets. Each episode features pros from the prediction trade: gamblers, traders, investors, data freaks, probability geeks and super-forecasters. We also introduce experts with proprietary forecasting models and insights into the outcomes of prediction market events. Whether you live to bet or bet to live, join us for the next episode of The Prediction Trade. Brought to you by the editorial team behind the award-winning Luckbox magazine.

Episodes

Master Class on the Masters & Betting Belarus (#35)

April 5, 2021 • 70 min

Professional gambler Paul Krishnamurty makes his return to the TPT studio, this time to discuss more than just politics. The golf-betting pro gives a master class on betting on the Masters, including the five players who are the best bets to don the coveted green jacket. He also reveals his two favorite longshot bets.

Political bettors will get their fix with a discussion about the markets wagering on Belarusian President Alexande...

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James Altucher: New York Comedy & Politics (#34)

March 25, 2021 • 72 min

Season 2 of The Prediction Trade kicks off with lifelong New Yorker James Altucher.

James, an entrepreneur, investor, chess master, comedian, author and host of “The James Altucher Show” podcast, shares his contrarian analysis and best bets in the prediction markets for New York’s gubernatorial and mayoral races, as well as the fate of Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

In addition to a surprise prediction for New York’s upcoming gubernatorial r...

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The Prediction Trade Trailer

March 15, 2021 • 1 min

The Prediction Trade - coming soon! Each episode features pros from the prediction trade: gamblers, traders, investors, data freaks, probability geeks and super-forecasters. We also introduce experts with proprietary forecasting models and insights into the outcomes of prediction market events. Whether you live to bet or bet to live, join us for the next episode of The Prediction Trade.

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Harry Crane: Polls, Markets, Georgia, Cahaly & Silver (#33)

December 16, 2020 • 77 min

Rutgers University's Harry Crane discusses his new research comparing the accuracy of polling models with the prediction markets following the November election, giving FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver another reason to troll tweet. Also, Trafalgar Group's Robert Cahaly tips off TPT to some potentially market-moving poll results he is about to release about the upcoming Georgia Senate races. Follow Harry Crane on Twitter ...

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Jo Jorgensen: No “Shy” Libertarian (#32)

October 21, 2020 • 45 min

In this special episode, Libertarian Party presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen teaches Libertarian 101. Dr. Jorgensen takes us to school about "shy Libertarian voters," wasted red & blue votes, victimless crimes, Seagrams, meth, Edward Snowden, pre-existing medical conditions, big tech, the Clemson Tigers & cask-strength whiskey. Visit jo20.com and follow Jo Jorgensen on Twitter @Jorgensen4POTUS and @LPNatio...

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31 for 31: The Best of TPT & VP Debate Recap (#31)

October 8, 2020 • 31 min

Republicans, Democrats, partisans & wingnuts ... There's something for everyone in this special recap episode featuring favorite guests, moments and trades from our last 30 episodes. In the second half of the episode, Star Spangled Gamblers' Pratik Chougule shares his post-VP debate analysis, as well as some trade ideas. TRENDS Our No-Fly Debate Zone Pratik Chougule Predicts a Wave TRADES Florida Blues Longshot, or E...

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Robert Cahaly: The Polls Are So Wrong, Here’s Why (#30)

October 4, 2020 • 76 min

Before you place any more political bets, check out pollster Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group's explanation of why he beat his polling peers in the past two election cycles, how he nailed the Electoral College outcome in 2016 and why the polls are wrong again in 2020. Cahaly calls the swing states, two key Senate toss-ups and some Luckbox Longshot trades for less than a dime. TRENDS The Polls Are Wrong—Here's Why There IS ...

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Pro Punter Plots Barrett, Biden & Boris (#29)

September 26, 2020 • 65 min

Professional gambler Paul Krishnamurty returns to The Political Trade after going four-for-four on his prior trades. Paul shares his Biden-favoring election day hedging strategy, three new high-return trades and a Luckbox Lockbox trade with a big upside! TRENDS U.K. & Betfair Pricing RBG and the Debates 2016 Misdeeds & Midterm Misreads TACTICS: High-Performance Biden Hedges Swinging for the Swing States TRADES Popular...

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The Insider’s Guide to Election Night Trading (#28)

September 9, 2020 • 60 min

Super-trader Jason Pipkin returns to The Political Trade after nailing major forecasts ahead of Super Tuesday in his first appearance. This time, he's sharing the essential tips, tricks and skills necessary to trade successfully—and profitably—on election night. TRENDS Jason's contest for political traders TACTICS: Election Night The County Line Florida, Man & NC State The Websites You Need to Know TRADES Buy Biden...

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Allan Lichtman: Batting a Thousand Since 1984* (#27)

September 2, 2020 • 64 min

Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at The American University, holds "The Keys to the White House" — his proven, proprietary model for forecasting presidential elections that correctly called the 2016 election for Donald Trump, as well as every other presidential outcome since 1984. This TPT episode compares the model's predictive accuracy to polling, and delves into each of Lichtman's proprietary 13 Keys. "...

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Blagojevich Trades: Battleground States & Clemency (#26)

August 31, 2020 • 37 min

Former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich returns for Part 2 of his TPT appearance. In Part 2, Blago enters the trading pits of PredictIt.org, analyzing the markets and sharing his unique perspectives, opinions and forecasts as a former state governor. A total of eight markets are called in all, including the market for Paul Manafort's clemency, markets for a couple key battleground states, a more obscure Illinois-focused market...

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Rod Blagojevich: Prison, Populism & the Presidency (#25)

August 27, 2020 • 88 min

When he took office in 2003, Rod Blagojevich was the first Democrat elected to be Illinois' governor in 30 years. Riding a populist wave, he racked up progressive political victories until he was taken into federal custody on corruption charges in 2008. After serving eight years of his 14-year sentence, Blagojevich had his sentence commuted by President Donald Trump in February 2020. In this provocative two-part series, the for...

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Mark Vargas: Breaking Blago & Presidential Pardons (#24)

August 20, 2020 • 82 min

Mark Vargas has more than earned his political insider credentials as the so-called "mystery man" who achieved the impossible: nearly single-handedly brokering Trump's commutation of former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich's 14-year prison sentence. But that's not all. Vargas also assisted in securing Roger Stone's recent commutation. He tells the full story, as well as sharing his insights on Jared Kushner, Ka...

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David Rothschild: Predictions vs. Polling (#23)

August 13, 2020 • 47 min

David Rothschild rings the TPT bell, and Nate Silver's ears are ringing. Rothschild, a Microsoft Research data scientist and economist, breaks down prediction markets and takes down FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver in a discussion about the relative merits of polling vs. prediction markets. In Part 2, Rothschild enters the trading pits and serves up Electoral College and Florida trading ideas. Follow Rothschild on Twitter ...

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240,000% Return!—He Turned $50 Into $120K (#22)

July 15, 2020 • 55 min

Longtime prediction market trader Travis Lloyd, known to PredictIt traders as "baselevel," brings more than just an impressive (and verified) tale of how he turned a $50 investment into $120,000. He also brings scotch! Travis shares some of his political insights, a trick he uses for achieving upwards of a third of his returns, why he's negative on negative risk and three trade ideas. TIPPLES Glenlivet 15, FEW Bourbon ...

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David Byler: WaPo Data Man Flips Red States Blue (#21)

July 11, 2020 • 55 min

Washington Post data analyst and political columnist David Byler talks partisanship and the BLM movement's likely impact on the upcoming presidential election. In the TRADES segment, he enters the PredictIt trading pits with 12 forecasts, including seven state general elections, Mike Pence, the Democratic VP and yet another Luckbox Lockbox trade! Subscribe to David's weekly newsletter, The Odds, where he shares what we can ...

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Yeez, We Kanye—But, Will He? (#20)

July 6, 2020 • 38 min

This year's Fourth of July saw fireworks not only erupting in the sky, but also on social media following a viral tweet by Kanye West. The rapper, singer, songwriter, record producer, composer, entrepreneur, and fashion designer may soon don a new title: presidential candidate. In this breaking news episode of TPT, we go through the biggest stories moving the markets on PredictIt, dedicating special attention to West's pote...

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Dylan Ratigan Trades: Thinking Outside the Lockbox (#19)

June 26, 2020 • 27 min

Equipped with raw intuition and unique insights, Dylan Ratigan returns in Part 2, ready to tackle the prediction markets of PredictIt. Wasting no time, Dylan walks through a total of 10 markets, sharing the picks he thinks have the highest probability in each. TRADES include: Handicapping Biden's health through November, Senate control, the Electoral College and Michelle Obama's fandom. Dylan then jumps to Trump mispricing ...

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Dylan Ratigan: They’re All Greedy Bastards (#18)

June 25, 2020 • 35 min

Dylan Ratigan has so much to say about what is wrong with politics today, it took two episodes. We begin by asking Dylan to revisit his memorably viral on-air MSNBC rant. Also in Part 1, Dylan riffs on partisanship, redistricting, ranked balloting, running for office, the two-party system and prediction markets' political biases. The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE 10-issue...

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Free Money—The Trader’s Guide to Negative Risk (#17)

June 12, 2020 • 57 min

Not all headlines are clickbait — at the request of a TPT listener, this episode explains the ins and outs of a political prediction market strategy that results in free money! It's called "Negative Risk." Tricky at first, but TPT super trader Scott "Sazerac" Supak uses the Democratic VP market to illustrate the trading tactic where the house pays you back for each new trade. TPT Mailbag Rachel Bitecofer, Predi...

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