The Prediction Trade
If you can bet on it, you can bet we’ll talk about it on The Prediction Trade! Whether it’s sports, politics, financial markets, weather, the economy or pop culture, you’re only a few clicks away from placing legal wagers on all sorts of events and outcomes. The Prediction Trade lives at the intersection of probability, prediction and profit. We take a stats- and facts-based approach to wagering and trading in the prediction markets. Each episode features pros from the prediction trade: gamblers, traders, investors, data freaks, probability geeks and super-forecasters. We also introduce experts with proprietary forecasting models and insights into the outcomes of prediction market events. Whether you live to bet or bet to live, join us for the next episode of The Prediction Trade. Brought to you by the editorial team behind the award-winning Luckbox magazine.
Episodes
Two years after her first appearance on The Prediction Trade, political strategist Rachel Bitecofer has returned to build on her previous appearance’s success. It’s a high bar. Last time, she correctly handicapped 10 contentious markets ahead of the 2020 election. On this appearance, Rachel takes a look at the Pennsylvania and Arizon...
How do you make six figures trading in prediction markets? SXSW’s Brett Cannon knows, and in this episode of The Prediction Trade he shares the market bets he’s currently making on PredictIt. From Marco Rubio’s Senate race and Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking Senate votes to whether Donald Trump will file for president before 2023, Brett ...
In three compelling trade ideas—one lock, one longshot and one even-money bet—Garrett Baldwin covers student loan debt, Dr. Oz’s Pennsylvania Senate race and overall Senate control after the midterms. Plus, he calls upon his expertise as an economist to share his take on what’s going on in the stock market.
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When he’s on the air for tastytrade, Jermal Chandler shares his insights about options, equity markets, interest rates and the economy. When he joins the crew on The Prediction Trade, his baseball-betting side comes out. Jermal predicts the 2022 World Series matchup, winners in all six MLB divisions and both league MVPs. But before h...
Cryptocurrency regulation is a hot-button issue—one that Mike Frisch knows a lot about. He spent five years as a CFTC trial attorney and now specializes in cryptocurrency, digital assets and Web3 as partner of the Croke Fairchild Morgan and Beres law firm. Mike weighs in on the state of crypto currently, and how it may be regulated in the future. He also dives into the prediction markets of Kalshi and PredictIt to talk about studen...
After an impressive first appearance, Victor Jones, host of tastytrade’s Jones and Friends, returns to The Prediction Trade with more markets to forecast. From mortgage rates to Fed interest rates, oil prices to gasoline prices, and the U.S. GDP, Victor makes calls in them all. Plus, he updates the market calls he made in his previous appearance.
The Prediction Trade is brought to you by Luckbox magazine.
Lloyd Green knows what makes or breaks elections. Formerly serving as opposition research counsel to the ‘88 George H.W. Bush campaign, the political columnist for The Guardian and The Daily Beast joins the team at The Prediction Trade to talk about the 2022 midterms and their respective prediction markets on PredictIt. Arizona, Nevada, Florida and Georgia take center stage, but Lloyd also shares his analysis for the 2024 Democrati...
Victor Jones is known for hosting tastytrade’s Jones and Friends, but he’s lending his markets and investing expertise to The Prediction Trade for this special episode. A longtime prediction market trader himself, Victor has strong opinions about a variety of topics, and he shares them all. Kalshi’s interest rates and GDP markets, and PredictIt’s House control and presidential nominee markets take center stage, and there’s plenty o...
Politics and golf go hand-in-hand in this special episode of TPT. Professional gambler Paul Krishnamurty, of BetOnline, shares his golf-betting expertise to handicap the PGA Tour’s U.S. Open. But golf isn’t Paul’s only specialty. As a political junkie, he also shares his bets for the 2024 presidential nominees and whether or not Boris Johnson will remain in office for the rest of the year.
The crypto crash will eventually come to an end, says Iceberg Capital Group’s portfolio manager Jake Weinig. When it does, the big winners will be the coins that have innovative underlying technology. In this second installment of TPT’s crypto coverage, Jake shares which coins are in his hedge fund’s portfolio—and why crypto investors should consider buying them too. Plus, the crew makes bets in the student loan markets on Kalshi.
...The crypto market crash has active investors wondering what lies ahead. Buy the dip? Will the dip keep dipping? Fortunately, tastytrade’s global head of digital assets Ryan Grace has no-holds-barred answers about bitcoin, ethereum, and more—and he tells all on this episode of TPT. Ryan also wades into Kalshi’s “price of oil” market, and the crew covers two new “lockbox” trades.
The Prediction Trade is brought to you by Luckbox mag...
Market got you down? Pro energy trader Tracy Shuchart manages a nine-figure portfolio for a family office. In this special stock pickers episode, Shuchart reveals the eight energy stocks she owns today, her forecast for the price of oil and the reason behind her positive outlook for the energy sector. The crew also looks at the PA GOP Senate race and revisits insights from pollster Robert Cahaly.
The Prediction Trade is brought to...
You know you want to bet on the Kentucky Derby, and you’re in luck! Veteran horse racing analyst Molly Jo Rosen sorts out the field for you, including the horse to bet on to win it all. (Spoiler: It’s not Epicenter!) Molly Jo covers how to bet and which horses to avoid in this year’s Run for the Roses. She also reveals her daily double, quinella, exacta and trifecta bets. As an added bonus, the TPT crew looks at MLB wagers, inflati...
The Trafalgar Group’s founder and chief pollster, Robert Cahaly, returns to The Prediction Trade to walk through the 2022 midterms. Cahaly talks about his record—a winner prediction ratio of nearly 92%—and explains how his company approaches polling differently. He shares predictions for several midterm nominations, discusses how a Trump endorsement can flip a race, and contemplates the probability of Joe Biden or Kamala Harris lea...
Tom Sosnoff is no stranger to financial markets, and on this episode of The Prediction Trade the founder and co-CEO of tastytrade shares his take on events-based prediction markets. Tom walks through a handful of markets on Kalshi and PredictIt, and he ties it all together with a surprise 2024 Democratic presidential nomination forecast.
The Prediction Trade is brought to you by Luckbox magazine.
The co-founder of the political prediction market site PredictIt, John Phillips, joins The Prediction Trade for an exclusive interview ahead of the 2022 midterm election season. Phillips shares what technological improvements PredictIt has made, what to watch out for on the midterm campaign trail, and what he makes of Sarah Palin’s race for Alaska’s House seat.
The Prediction Trade is brought to you by Luckbox magazine.
Prediction market super-trader Scott Supak joins The Prediction Trade to offer a crash course on maximizing profits in PredictIt’s and Kalshi’s presidential approval rating markets, as well as his tactics for forecasting and trading the COVID-19 markets. The show wraps up with win total over/under predictions for the upcoming Major League Baseball season.
The Prediction Trade is brought to you by Luckbox magazine.
The Prediction Trade is placing bets on March Madness, the Georgia governor’s race, the 2024 presidential election and the Grammys in this jam-packed episode. Plus, economist Garrett Baldwin shares an essential tool for taking on Kalshi’s Fed interest rate markets, pointing out price discrepancies along the way. Spoiler alert: There are three Luckbox Lockbox picks throughout the episode.
The Prediction Trade is brought to you by L...
Season 3 of The Prediction Trade debuts with betting and trading opportunities in politics, sports and pop culture. Things kick off with handicapping the Brazilian general election, move to March Madness Final Four predictions and wrap up with a how-to for betting on this weekend’s Academy Awards.
The Prediction Trade is brought to you by Luckbox magazine.
Get a FREE digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT
Want to be a wiser weather wagerer? TPT enlists Rick DiMaio, an expert meteorologist and meteorology professor, to walk through the weather markets on the Kalshi prediction market platform.
Tools he shares:
https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
The Prediction Trade is brought to you by Luckbox magazine.
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