The Rate Guy
The Rate Guy Podcast is hosted by JP Conklin of Pensford. It's an irreverent insight into interest rates and current markets and how they impact the Commercial Real Estate and Multifamily industries.
Episodes
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we explore the aftermath of the Fed Meeting and break down how we think it will affect markets and how people are borrowing.
On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP unpacks the 911k job revision, rising jobless claims, and what it means for the Fed’s credibility. We dive into why the FOMC may already be behind the curve, what cuts are (and aren’t) on the table, and why markets are focused on 2026.
We also touch on cap strategies and why negotiating those floors is so important.
As promised here is the Cap/Floor Pricer from...
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss jobs and the shocking data that came out last week and how that (and a few other factors) will influence the Fed with their decision on cutting rate next week.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we urge you to forget CPI—the Fed’s watching jobs. Unemployment at 4.2% isn’t the good news it looks like. We explain r*, clear up the natural vs. neutral rate confusion, and connect the dots from D.C.’s deficit and the 10 Yr Treasury.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we unpack J Money's message from the podium at Jackson Hole. What surprised us, what didn't and what needs to happen (or not happen) in order to start cutting rates.
This week on The Rate Guy, we talk about the wild aftermath of Friday’s shocking jobs report—highlighting one of the biggest downward revisions since April 2020. We break down what really happened, why Trump fired the Commissioner of the BLS, and what that move signals for the Fed and future data credibility. We also unpack the growing odds of a rate cut in September, what to watch for in the searc...
We take one week off and everything goes haywire. What in the world?!
This week on The Rate Guy, we’re unpacking the chaos of last week, previewing a data-heavy week ahead, and digging into how markets and rates might respond.
Also, a heartfelt RIP to the icons we lost. Our childhood nostalgia ...
On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss this week's inflation data, GDP, the effect of the Big Beautiful Bill on the 10T and could QE be an option to cutting rates.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about the Job data and why it's skewed - per usual. We also discuss when and why the next rate cut may come, plus where the 10T will be at the end of 2025.
Thoughts and prayers to our friends in Texas and the victims of the devistating flood. Wishing you the strength as you navigate really tough territory.
On this episod of The Rate Guy we discuss Jobs, Inflation, GDP and what options traders are flocking to at the moment and why.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about how markets are responding to the Iran conflict, how it could affect inflation and the Fed's next move as we look at the last half of 2025.
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about who might replace Jay$ as Fed Chair and what that could mean for the future of monetary policy. Then JP dusts off his crystal ball to give his outlook on where the Fed and interest rates are headed over the next 12 months.
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the latest jobs report. We unpack what the numbers really signal, what that means for inflation, and why the Fed isn’t reaching for the rate cut lever just yet. Plus, you know we have to talk about what went down this past week; a Twitter showdown for the ages. Buckle up.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the mini-revolt happening at the long end of the curve, how tariffs are effecting the deficit and how sometimes the best cure for inflation is inflation.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about consumer sentiment of the top 10%, inflation's current status and how tarrifs are affecting the economy as a whole.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we unpack all of the data from last week; Inflation, GPD, Jobs. And cautiously break down what to expect at this week's Fed meeting. The uncertainty bends are proving to be true as the market has a 50/50 chance of a cut at June's meeting....flip a coin?
We also talk tariffs since we've never seen a tariff shock like this before, making it even more unpredictable. Mohammed El-Erian said it in the nic...
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the back and forth around Jerome Powell's fate and the impact that has had on the Market. After that we have a special interview with the great friend and even better sport, Jon Morris aka JMo. We hear his thoughts on career, current markets and where our industry is headed.
On this episode of The Rate Guys we talk about how last week the 10 Year Treasury spiked, the dollar slipped, and headlines claim the world is ditching the U.S. JP breaks down what really happened — and why it’s probably not about deficits or de-dollarization.
From CPI cooling to basis swap unwinds, it was one of the wildest weeks of JP’s career....
This week's episode of The Rate Guy is dedicated to tariffs, tariffs and more tariffs. Trying to make sense of what they'll do to interest rates, what is keeping us up about them and the 2 things that will make the Fed start cutting rates in June.
This week’s episode explores The Uncertainty Bends™—a not-so-scientific condition where markets, like vacationers, decompress too fast and suffer the consequences. With consumer confidence plunging, discretionary spending slowing, and the Fed stuck between inflation and recession fears, signs point to growing instability.
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