The Rate Guy
The Rate Guy Podcast is hosted by JP Conklin of Pensford. It's an irreverent insight into interest rates and current markets and how they impact the Commercial Real Estate and Multifamily industries.
Episodes
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about JP's love of all things Texas (well, maybe not the lobster mac & cheese), dig into the latest private-sector jobs data, and break down where we see interest rates heading in 2026 — plus why the impact on the 10T looks completely binary.
On this special edition episode of The Rate Guy we recap today's Fed meeting and analyze Powell's surprising remarks and what to be on the look out for in the week ahead.
See you on 11/10!
Here is the link to JP's recap in the Pensford Newsletter.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we break down the NBA betting scandal because apparently, Chauncey Billups was the big draw. Really? Plus, why Terry Rozier became the most bet-on player in America and what the NBA's "thorough investigation" didn't find.
Then we pivot to the Fed: a 25bp cut is coming, but what happens next? We walk through four possible rate paths for 2026, from holding steady to cutting below 3%, and what each mean...
On this epidode of The Rate Guy we're breaking down this Thursday's CPI release — why the market will probably react even though it's full of noise, what could drive the 10-year Treasury to 3.62%, and the one signal that could tell us the Fed won't cut rates at the next meeting.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we answer the question we've gotten a lot this week..."If the Federal government is still shut down on Oct. 29, will the Fed meet and make a decision about rates?" We answer that and many more about how Fed cuts will effect the 10 year treasury and why the US is still the world's mattress.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we explore the private data sources around the job market and what they might mean in the absence of official government statistics. We also talk about projected rate cuts and when they will likely happen.
For those of you that want to read along with the stats here is the link to the Pensford Newsletter.
And to see what JP's been up to in his spare time check out www.FireJamesFranklin.com
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we explore the aftermath of the Fed Meeting and break down how we think it will affect markets and how people are borrowing.
On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP unpacks the 911k job revision, rising jobless claims, and what it means for the Fed's credibility. We dive into why the FOMC may already be behind the curve, what cuts are (and aren't) on the table, and why markets are focused on 2026.
We also touch on cap strategies and why negotiating those floors is so important.
As promised here is the Cap/Floor Pricer from...
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss jobs and the shocking data that came out last week and how that (and a few other factors) will influence the Fed with their decision on cutting rate next week.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we urge you to forget CPI—the Fed's watching jobs. Unemployment at 4.2% isn't the good news it looks like. We explain r*, clear up the natural vs. neutral rate confusion, and connect the dots from D.C.'s deficit and the 10 Yr Treasury.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we unpack J Money's message from the podium at Jackson Hole. What surprised us, what didn't and what needs to happen (or not happen) in order to start cutting rates.
This week on The Rate Guy, we talk about the wild aftermath of Friday's shocking jobs report—highlighting one of the biggest downward revisions since April 2020. We break down what really happened, why Trump fired the Commissioner of the BLS, and what that move signals for the Fed and future data credibility. We also unpack the growing odds of a rate cut in September, what to watch for in the searc...
We take one week off and everything goes haywire. What in the world?!
This week on The Rate Guy, we're unpacking the chaos of last week, previewing a data-heavy week ahead, and digging into how markets and rates might respond.
Also, a heartfelt RIP to the icons we lost. Our childhood nostalgia ...
On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss this week's inflation data, GDP, the effect of the Big Beautiful Bill on the 10T and could QE be an option to cutting rates.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about the Job data and why it's skewed - per usual. We also discuss when and why the next rate cut may come, plus where the 10T will be at the end of 2025.
Thoughts and prayers to our friends in Texas and the victims of the devistating flood. Wishing you the strength as you navigate really tough territory.
On this episod of The Rate Guy we discuss Jobs, Inflation, GDP and what options traders are flocking to at the moment and why.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about how markets are responding to the Iran conflict, how it could affect inflation and the Fed's next move as we look at the last half of 2025.
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about who might replace Jay$ as Fed Chair and what that could mean for the future of monetary policy. Then JP dusts off his crystal ball to give his outlook on where the Fed and interest rates are headed over the next 12 months.
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the latest jobs report. We unpack what the numbers really signal, what that means for inflation, and why the Fed isn't reaching for the rate cut lever just yet. Plus, you know we have to talk about what went down this past week; a Twitter showdown for the ages. Buckle up.
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the mini-revolt happening at the long end of the curve, how tariffs are effecting the deficit and how sometimes the best cure for inflation is inflation.
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