Group of Five Tiers + American & CUSA Conference Previews - 2024 College Football - The Solid Verbal College Football

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Welcome to the solid verbal hull that for me, I'm
a man, I'm forty.

Speaker 2 (00:08):
I've heard so many players say, well, I want to
be happy. You want to be happy for day Edith State?

Speaker 1 (00:13):
Is that whoo whoom? And then and tie Dan Robinstein.
At long last, we've arrived at previous season. Last episode
we talked through the big, high level stuff, all the
things that are changing in the year of our Lord
twenty twenty four college football. Now it is time for
the rubber to meet the road. Today, we've got the

(00:36):
Group of five. We're going to start off with the
American and Conference USA in part one. In part two,
we're going to do the Mountain West, the Sun Belt,
and the MAC. But we're finally here. I'm excited. We're
finally here to actually talk some teams in college football
and conferences and all the good stuff we've waited all
summer long for.

Speaker 2 (00:54):
Yes, absolutely, And the good thing about you know, the
G five portion of this, And you know how I
think we both hate sort of that term and lumping
all of these conferences together because they are their own
unique ecosystems that have brands and personalities and everything. But
the great thing about I think what most, if not all,
of these conferences is there's no clear obvious power across

(01:17):
the board, and one of these teams, I guess I
take that back in liberty within Conference USA, but that's
a sort of a different situation because they were that
last year and they got into the Fiesta Bowl against Oregon.
That there is I think we're going to delineate tiers here,
but like there's like there is a fuzziness to where

(01:39):
these teams fit in in unique ways across different conferences.
And I sort of love that. I sort of love
that anybody who is confident in their hierarchy picks is wrong,
is just absolutely wrong, and that's the fun of it all.
And so this makes me very excited for this year
in particular because the nature of a number of these

(01:59):
confferences is nothing but crazy change, not unlike major conferences,
but it seems that like the the identities of so
many of these teams is like, well, they could go
three to nine or nine and three based on you know,
they've got seventy one new players and three new coordinators.
That's the fun of sort of not being a fan

(02:21):
of a specific team because I think there's a lot
of harrowing moments if you're a fan of Whoever, North
Texas or FAU or something because of the unknown. But
I don't know from a pure TV show standpoint, there's
a lot to love here. There's a lot to love.

Speaker 1 (02:35):
It's a great TV show. And look, I'm excited to
do a two part Group of five preview. I'm with you,
like we sort of don't have much love for the
Group of five Moniker Umbrella as a whole. Right. We
don't mean to diminish any of these teams or conferences.
It's just sort of the way that the sport has
gone and we need some way to classify it. So

(02:56):
we'll roll with it. But we've never done a two
part preview before, and as you and I talked in
the off season and now into the preseason, we just
kind of felt dirty about putting it. At the very end,
just going through all of this information in one hour.
One hour was not enough to talk through the minutia
and the details and the things that we think make

(03:18):
all five of these conferences unique. So we're going to
get into that. We're going to give them their due.
We're going to start off with these five conferences this
year as oppose to what we've done in the past,
and I'm excited about it. We've put in I can't
even tell you how many hours of research to make
sure we're up to speed that we can talk knowledgeably
about it, and this year we've got a different format

(03:38):
that we're going to follow. It's not complicated by any
stretch of the imagination, but I do think it plays
into what makes college football great. To start things off,
just because there is going to be a G five
representative in this new playoff system, you and I are
going to talk through our championship tiers, the teams in
our research that we feel have a real run at

(04:00):
that G five invite. Who are they? How do we
rank them? Just from a very high level. After that,
then we're going to get into individual conferences, and the
theme for how we're going to approach each conference and
each team within is danger danger Danger? Are you feeling dangerous?

(04:23):
Are you not feeling dangerous? Each team? Each conference? Why
are they dangerous? Why are they not dangerous? Could they
pull an upset? Are they going to be upset? Sorry?
That won't be the last time I play that stab.
That's all we have, That's all we got. One second

(04:44):
of Kenny Loggins. But alas is that not the very
fiber of college football? Can they pull an upset? Will
they be upset? That's what everybody?

Speaker 2 (04:52):
Or are they clearly dominant? What makes them so dangerous
and dominant? What is it about this team that makes them,
you know, not just dangerous but also like a big
time playoff contender. There's a difference between you know, dangerous,
I think has a ceiling. Right, you're dangerous until you're great.

Speaker 1 (05:10):
You're great.

Speaker 2 (05:11):
You just don't question greatness, right that it's sort of
self evident. Dangerous is sort of the last stop on
the greatness train. And so we want to find this
is all nonsense, Ti, you know that, But we want
to find the levels, right, the magnitude of danger or
lack thereof in these conferences in potential contenders to make

(05:32):
the college football playoff. And I have no idea what
your list is in terms of playoff contenders among the
G five ranks, And I don't think you have any
idea of what mine is. And that makes me excited.

Speaker 1 (05:47):
Absolutely. The only other thing that I will add, I
promise you there isn't a whole lot of setup required,
no for any of this for those watching the video
version of the show. I've got to take a toe
behind me? That's true? Or why bird? As we go through,
as we start talking through these teams, and I think
specifically as we get into the power conferences and we

(06:09):
have more informed predictions to offer, this is when take
Atoa is gonna shine. It's been dormant the last couple months.
It's been hiding in the other room that's adjacent to
my studio here. But we're gonna throw some of our
takes in predictions and just oddball thoughts into the volcano.
I'll keep track of them all. At some point we'll
have a take a toe A review episode. Yeah, it

(06:31):
will smoke. I charged the battery on the contraption. I've
also looked it up. Apparently whatever the smoke is that's
coming out won't give me lung cancer. So we're good
okay in that department. At least, that's what the Internet says,
for whatever Google's worth. If you are new here, hit follow,
hit subscribe so that you don't miss any of our
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(06:51):
If you've been here a while, tell your friends that
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We'll do that as we get a little bit closer
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More people are starting to join. Hop on over to

(07:14):
the discord talk through obviously, I would expect people are
going to be talking through our previews here to tell
us where we're right, where we're wrong, and wherever it
is you're listening, let us know, soliverbogmail dot com, what
we could do better, what you think we got wrong,
what you think we got right right correct. Let's start
this off, Dan, I'm ready. There is going to be

(07:34):
a G five rep in the playoff this year. I
would assume maybe it's a bad assumption that it's going
to be the number twelve seed in the playoff. There
are scenarios in which that would not be the case.
I think we talked through them on the last episode.
Give me your list of true G five contenders for
that one and only playoff spot.

Speaker 2 (07:56):
Yeah, and I don't think it's necessarily going to be
the case that they're twelve. I melast year, it was
very clear that Liberty was the low man on those
New Year six games. But we've seen seasons in which
you know, an undefeated Cincinnati, an undefeated Boise State are
hovering around five and six. Not necessarily in college football
playoff rankings, with you know, Boise State's height pre playoff,

(08:16):
but certainly we could see, especially with some of these
teams scheduling up like they kind of have to do,
that you could have that huge signature win that vaults
you above that number twelve spot. And so what I
like to do in looking at a potential playoff contender
and somebody who could actually compete in the playoff is like, Okay,

(08:38):
it's one thing to look relatively complete and well coached,
but what do you do excellently? Is it a Luke
Fickle defense? Is it a Chris Peterson offense?

Speaker 1 (08:46):
Right?

Speaker 2 (08:47):
That to me is generally the difference on the margins
between teams who can avoid that like weird down week,
that they can lean on something excellent to you know,
run the table or whatever or give you know, in
the case of like I think Fresno State has Michigan
early on. Like to give a team like that a
good amount of that dangerous feeling that we're talking about.

Speaker 1 (09:07):
And so I don't know.

Speaker 2 (09:09):
I think you start with the most obvious candidate because
of their schedule and conference. It's Liberty to me because
they did it last year. They return a good amount.
They lose a star receiver, but Caden Salter came back
into the roster from the portal and so there's a
good amount to like about Liberty. They have app State
this year, but their schedule is still incredible in Conference USA.

(09:30):
Is just they're not fielding a team on Liberty and
in Jamie Chadwell's level right now. So that's obvious candidate
number one for me. Do you have them in your candidates?

Speaker 1 (09:39):
Well, they're obviously in my candidates right I've got seven
teams listed here and I have ranked them in disorder. Okay,
my number one is a f State. Okay, my number
one am app State. We will talk about app State
in Part two in more detail when we break down
all things Sun Belt. But I like rep States that
I like where their offense is at. Their defense has

(10:01):
been trending downwards in the last couple of years, but
I'm hopeful that they might have a chance to rectify
that this season. I just think they're really strong. All
these teams that I looked at, I think they're the
strongest in my opinion.

Speaker 2 (10:15):
Also in a Sun belt that's a little bit more
gettable with the loss of some coaching and player talent,
of course, not the least of which James Madison and
Kurt Signetti. I have Boise State Boise State second. Yeah,
I've got Boise State too on mind. Okay, I didn't
order mine. I just sort of have a corral of
playoff threats. Sure, sure, Boise State is interesting because of

(10:37):
the way they finished the season last year. Their schedule
is pretty good. They have Oregon week two or Week three,
and so we'll have a good sense of what Boise
is or is not. They had Washington last year and
they were not last year, and they move on from
Andy Avlos. But you know, when you have one of
the best, like three or four running backs in the
world in the college football universe, excuse me, in Ashton

(10:58):
Genty like, they start off from a good place. He
has a good line in front of them. Their schedule
shouldn't be terrible. Boise I think depending on where they
are at quarterback, I think they should have a good
amount of firepower and offense, and the defense should be improved.
Boise I think is the is the probable clear favorite
in the in the Mountain West, which should give them a.

Speaker 1 (11:18):
Good leg up. Yeah. So I've got app State one,
Boise State two in my power ranking. I've got Liberty three.
You mentioned it just a minute ago, but app State
and Liberty do play this year, Yeah, and I think
it's sometime in October. I'll pull it up when we
talk through these teams. That's in effect a potential play

(11:39):
in game for the playoff between those two, because you
got to expect Liberty is going to go through the
Conference USA without much resistance. I just think head and
shoulders there better than all the other teams. And there
are some interesting schools that we'll talk through, but I
think Liberty is a clear favorite there as you as
you mentioned and app State. I really like app State.
I like the fact that they schedule Liberty, Like the

(12:00):
fact that Liberty scheduled app State, like the fact that
we get that game. I think app State's got a
really good shot at winning the Sun Belt this year,
though the Sun Belt remains interesting and has been interesting
in the last couple of seasons. Liberty is three for me.
I'm curious though, outside of those three teams, like if
you're ranking them Liberty, Boise State or app State, Boise

(12:20):
and Liberty, kind of those three in no particular order,
what is kind of like your next grouping of teams.

Speaker 2 (12:27):
I would put Memphis in the group there just because
of what they return and close losses last year. I
would probably put Fresno State in that group. And the
Fresno State thing is interesting. They return a good amount
on offense, the defense hopefully is improved, but they have
a bite at the Apple situation where they have Michigan,
Wazoo and UCLA and so again on the margins if

(12:49):
you're comparing resumes of a one or two loss Fresno
and an undefeated Liberty, but we're talking about a win
over Ucla or a win over Wazoo and close losses
to you know, Michigan and UCLA or something like that
like that to me, that that scratches me where I
itch in terms of you know, you have the tested
coach and Jeff Tedford who's been successful both at cal

(13:11):
and Fresno. Hopefully his health is in order. So schedule wise,
they're in a good place within the Mountain West, so
I would include Fresno in that group.

Speaker 1 (13:20):
In Fresno could beat Ucla Dan, of course they could.
They could beat Usula, it's later in the year. It's
a late game. I don't think they stay much chance
against Michigan. Alho. Michigan is kind of in. It's early.
I think michigan'sn be really good this year, but I
don't know. I think Michigan will be really good as well.
But Michigan's got their own change that they're that they're
undergoing at the at the moment. In Ucla might be
a little bit more seasoned later in the year, but

(13:41):
I Fresno's veteran team. Fresno could take them down. I've
also got Memphis and Fresno, excuse me, in addition to
Louisiana and Tulane to round out my seven. Louisiana interesting, Yeah, Okay,
I like Louisiana this year.

Speaker 2 (13:54):
I'm not.

Speaker 1 (13:55):
I'm not as I wanted to include them, if only
because I included them as one of my contenders for
or the American Okay, and The same is true for Tulane.
Both of those programs are kind of dealing with their
own elements of change. I think you could make a
case for them, but I ranked them much lower six
and seventh on this list just because I don't think

(14:15):
it's as strong of a case in reality. For me,
it's five teams. It's five teams that I feel best about,
and those are Apupstate, Boisese, State, Liberty, Memphis, and Fresno. Okay,
with a kicker of Louisiana and Tulane. Are there any
other schools that you included that you wouldn't include? Doesn't
sound like you're too high on two Lane or or Louisiana. Yeah, okay,

(14:36):
are the eyes that I miss? In mind?

Speaker 2 (14:39):
I am exceedingly curious about the tier in which, or
your opinion of and maybe we'll get there when we
talk to the Americans soon. UTSA, yeah, just because of
the Jeff Trailer factor. Frank Harris is out of eligibility,
but he has had a great eye for assistance, and
even with a slow start last year, they get things
in order. He's recruited quite well, to say, Antonio, So

(15:01):
that's somebody where I'm like, Okay, they could have a
weird like under the radar this offseason.

Speaker 1 (15:07):
Put it together. I know.

Speaker 2 (15:08):
I think they are at Texas relatively early on Schedule's
not terrible. They've got a couple of those bigger games
at home. That to me is interesting that he's been
there long enough and he has used the portal well
enough that it could be more rebuild than a reload
than rebuild.

Speaker 1 (15:24):
Yeah, I think I misspoke. I think I said that
we'll talk about Louisiana today. We're not gonna talk about Louisiana. No, No,
that'll be the second show. It'll be the second show. Yeah.
I'm getting all these conferences mixed up because we studied
all of them and we're going to do all of
our recordings on one day, so a lot of information.

Speaker 2 (15:38):
Also, they all switch switch. It's one big swingers party
between Conference USA and the American and the Sun Belt
Speaky Party.

Speaker 1 (15:46):
Of Feeling Dangerous Dan. Hey, let's get into the American,
shall we. Let's bulge a file the Tornados coming front
for you, Lives common, the American oohoo, whoa hey, Hey, okay, okay, American,
the American, the aac AS. It were very interesting conference

(16:11):
as all of these are. We're going to do five
conferences between this episode and next. I also did a
secondary tier ranking of my teams in the American that
I can use kind of right now as a guide
for where I want to take this because I was
the one who did the deep dive of this conference.

(16:33):
I think the two obvious contenders for me, and if
you want to come up with any kind of place
danger themed tiers, be my guest. Okay, you're the creative
one between the two of us. I'm just the pace
car here on this show. Okay, my two obvious contenders
are Memphis and two Lane. I think it's obvious those
are the two schools that far and away I think

(16:55):
are the ones that are the two primary contenders here.
Beyond that, though, the teams that are giving me the vapors,
the teams that are making me feel dangerous. Frankly, USF
about whom we have talked many times over here on
this show, as well as UTSA, a team that you
mentioned earlier. The teams that are I think, in their
own right, feeling dangerous that could pull an upset along

(17:18):
the way. The Rice Owls Army Army, a new addition
to the conference I'll talk about in a second FAU
the Owls, another owl in this group, and ECU Pirates,
and then the teams that I'm just sort of given
the wave off Navy, North Texas, UAB, Tulsa, Charlotte Temple.

(17:41):
We're going to talk about all of these programs here,
I promise you. But in terms of actually contending winning,
you know, in upset capacity, I'm I'm not seeing it, Okay,
all right. I don't know if that jives with anything
that you have read that you put together. I know
I did the deep dive here, but are any points
of contention with grouping those teams as such?

Speaker 2 (18:04):
I mean the Navy right off, I understand why you're
doing it. I don't know. I just have too much
history writing off Navy and them having that it's that
random week that I still think they're dangerous, like a
Week nine where they just get it all together. But
I don't think that fully qualifies them as dangerous.

Speaker 1 (18:21):
Well, you know the AAC NOWS fourteen teams, even though
SMU left this year, they bring in Army Army enters
as a football only member of the conference, and we
mentioned it a little bit on the last episode. While
you bring up Navy. The Army Navy rivalry is going
to remain unchanged. They're going to continue playing it second

(18:41):
Saturday in December as a non conference game, even though
both teams are in the same conference. So it does
set up the situation again that we outlined on the
last episode Go back and listen, where in some future
universe where Army and Navy are the top two teams
in the American and they have to play for the
conference championship in week fourteen, could be an exhibition game
between the two of them again all week fifteen, unless

(19:03):
they decide, you know, they don't want to do that,
But that makes it interesting. The other thing that makes
it interesting is a bigger picture. I do think it's
probably the only conference in America that has two pure
option teams, Like this, is it not? I believe so? Yeah,
Like it sets up the hellish possibility of a double
body blow, and UAB is the closest to kind of

(19:25):
dealing with that this year because they've got Navy two
lane and an Army on three consecutive weeks, but thankfully
no two option games back to back, which I hope
they do just for the hell that at some point
to keep things interesting for us on the podcast. But yeah,
the whole Army edition I think is really cool.

Speaker 2 (19:42):
Well, the good news of your UAB is the defense
is probably just going to be horrific anyway, so you're
not going to be able to tell that there's an
actual effect playing Army in the No.

Speaker 1 (19:50):
No, the other thing that I would I would add
about the fourteen teams in the American this year, twelve
of them per Bill Connolly's projections, twelve of them are
at best half teams.

Speaker 2 (20:03):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (20:03):
What do I mean by that? Either really good offense
and a bad defense or vice versa. The only two
that aren't are UTSA and two Lane. Per that metric,
both of them figure to be a lot more balanced
on both sides of the football. Interestingly enough, Memphis, who
I mentioned earlier, the biggest, like the biggest, not one

(20:24):
of the biggest, They are the biggest in the entire conference.

Speaker 2 (20:27):
Like the distance between their offensive projection their defense projection
in the American.

Speaker 1 (20:31):
Huge, huge, biggest half team, but maybe maybe the conference
favorite really Yeah.

Speaker 2 (20:37):
More than North Texas, Yeah, who might have the worst
defense and had like a top thirty offense nationally last
year per projections.

Speaker 1 (20:44):
Wild okay, Memphis looks to be the biggest half team. Okay.
And then the final point that I'll add here before
we dive in, and you can tell me where you
want to go next place. As you alluded, there's a
lot new across G five, but in this conference in
part two, just from a returning production standpoint, there are
only four teams inside the top fifty of that metric.

(21:07):
Rice is fifth nationally and they return the most on
defense of any team in the country. They're number one,
USF is eighth nationally. They have a fifth in the
country in terms of what comes back on offense, and
Memphis twenty second overall. They return a lot on both sides.
Navy is right in there at number fifty as well.
But there's anytime you see that metric, either via transfers

(21:31):
or graduation or whatever, there's a lot new in the
American which I think tends to kind of up the
variance and increase the possibilities that you could see.

Speaker 2 (21:42):
So it's interesting and you'll see, you know, guys, in
any of these conferences we're talking about, it's coming up
from an FCS level or from another G five conference
coming down looking for more playing time. From a power conference,
and you know, depending on how robust the NIL situation is,
and it varies team to team. Of course, conference to
conference is when you'll see a lot of Jags coming

(22:04):
in just guys, right, just warm bodies and actual interesting
contributor potential. And so it's sort of tough to sort
out right now because a lot you know, it's either
a competition thing or it's just haven't seen this guy
who's been the third string left guard for Texas these
past three years play. But it yeah, it throws the

(22:25):
whole thing into a sort of mysterious vapor.

Speaker 1 (22:29):
Where do you want me to start? Which team? I
don't know? Who's just doing it for you? Memphis is
doing it for okay, Memphis is doing it for me.
Memphis went ten and three last season. They beat Iowa
State in the Liberty Bowl. They got in the zone
the auto zoned Liberty Bowl. They also played in six
one score games and they won four of them, so
the margin there was very thin, and more often than

(22:51):
not they they came out in front. Memphis projects as
the best G five team this year, which of course
is significant because of the playoff stuff that we discussed earlier.
The biggest question for me is how they deal with
their schedule, in particular the home road splits, which are
not favorable. They've got games against usf UTSA T Lane,

(23:15):
all of them are on the road. I mentioned this
for two reasons. A. It's pretty tough, especially considering they
got to go what twelve and one to get into
that playoff spot. Yeah, and B They're going to need
to play some defense to make it through, and I'm
not sure they will or can. That's sort of the
open thing with Memphis this year. I mentioned the half

(23:35):
team thing, but it's a defense thing. Really. They'll be
able to play offense. I'm not concerned about that. Last
year they allowed four hundred and thirty yards a game
and twenty eight point eight points per game. Almost everything
was a shootout, So it's easy to have faith in
the offense, which was really good last year and brings
a lot back. Some questions about the offensive line, but

(23:58):
for the most part, we're talking about seth and again
at quarterback, a very good wide receiver corps went by
Rock Taylor, A lots back. There's a lot to like there.
Just a defense question.

Speaker 2 (24:08):
Man, It's kind of true, but like every team in
the American in Conference USA in the Sun Belt Mountain West, Like,
I just don't think you can hide great defensive players
anymore because at real defense on a certain level, it's
just who has the best players trying the hardest on defense,
and you can't hide them. If you've got a great
edge rusher at UTSA, guess what Texas wants him? And

(24:29):
you know the days of what was the Toledo Corners
name Quinyon Mitchell. He was drafted in the first round.
Sure that's going to become so rare for him to
stick around, and I'm impressed by it when it does happen.
But when you look at a team like Memphis who
couldn't rush the passer at all last year, who gave
up a ton of big plays, like they can recruit
and evaluate, well, I just don't know how well they're

(24:51):
going to be able to sustain and build a good defense.
Any team to sustain and build a good defense over
time in the portal era. So then you're looking at
who has the savvout coaches, who has an offense that's
inventive enough to score on anybody, and and who has
the schedule that won't get exposed and will at least
get them to, you know, the the stoop of the playoff,

(25:14):
and in memphisis case. I just don't think they're starting
out from a good enough place on defense to to
really scare me that they're gonna, you know, run the
table this year.

Speaker 1 (25:23):
Yeah. The offense will be there, They're gonna score points.
The personnel they have on stat like, they'll yeah, they're
offensive be super strong. Yeah, but the question is can
they do so in a way that every game isn't
a shootout or they actually do step up up on defense.
Ryan Silverfield took in twenty nine transfers to try and
build up some quality depth to the point where you

(25:45):
actually wonder if they're going to be able to gel
in time for the season. You know, we're not just
talking about warm bodies to fill up the two deep.
We're talking about quality depth that he built going out
there and brought a lot of guys in. It's just
that doesn't always take.

Speaker 2 (26:01):
Yeah, and it helps when you have that cash infusion
from FedEx behind the scenes twenty.

Speaker 1 (26:06):
Five million dollars over five years. I'm glad you mentioned that. Yeah,
to your point of can they build can they sustain?
That's a serious investment that I think definitely puts Memphis
at an advantage as compared to some of their peers
on the G first level, but that it takes time,
you know, it takes time for that to kick in,
for there to be a cohesive strategy, and for them

(26:28):
to kind of infuse that program with more talent on
a year and year out basis. The reason Memphis is
dangerous is obvious. It's because they've got skill talent. They've
got a very potent offense. The reason why they won't
be dangerous is that constant threat of their defense bottoming out.
I think they will be better on that side of
the ball, but that's the risk. That's the risk. Also

(26:52):
the schedule. I mentioned the schedule just in conference, but
they've also got a game early against Troy. I'm not
particularly high on Troy for many reasons. I think people
on this show know already. We'll talk about that. That
makes me immediately think Troy's going ten to two. Oh yeah,
that's fair. But also Florida State, they're on the road
in Tallahassee week three. We will know a lot about

(27:13):
Memphis pretty soon. Great won't be that long of a week,
but I'm pretty high on him. I just you know,
there are there are obvious issues.

Speaker 2 (27:20):
Yeah, there are, as you mentioned, eight to ten teams
who are willing to win or lose a game forty
five forty two in any given week.

Speaker 1 (27:28):
The other team that I put a top of my
contenders list in the American is two Lane. Okay, it's
for obvious reasons, right, I mean, Tulane was eleven to
three last year. They lost to SMU and the conference
title game. They lost a Virginia Tech in the bowl,
but they went eight to no in conference play during
the regular season. The thing with Tulane that we need
to pay attention to is that they replaced willly Fritz.

(27:51):
Willi Fritz left went to Houston. Everyone loved the hire
when he was at Tulane, and now when he's at Houston,
everybody loves Willi Fritz just seems, you know. And they
replaced him with another guy that everybody loves and John Summral.
He was twenty three and four in two seasons at Troy,
may or may not have been the higher of the offseason,

(28:11):
depending who you talked to. That said ninety sixth in
returning production. Ok, they're a little greener on defense than
they are on offense. But their biggest loss was easily
Michael Pratt, a name that we've talked about. I feel
like for an eternity on this show. He was an
outstanding quarterback. He was there forever could have transferred to

(28:33):
a bunch of big places. Before last season, I thought
it was going to happen at Notre Dame. I had
heard rumors about Michael Pratt to Notre Dame, you know,
like middle of the previous season. It didn't. It didn't
come to fruition. They end up going with Sam Hartman instead,
but now without Pratt. If you're trying to construct a
case for why Tulane won't be as dangerous this year,
it's because there probably is going to be a drop off.

(28:54):
The new quarterback is Ty Thompson. You could probably tell
us more about Ty Thompson than anybody. He's the former
five star from Yes.

Speaker 2 (29:01):
Yeah, originally from Arizona, was at Oregon for a couple
of years and physically has a ton of potential. Had
been in a couple of big games and looked a
little bit lost and just not ready for prime time,
but seemed to improve over the course of the last
year in garbage time through some nice balls, and the

(29:21):
potential is there. And as we know, progress isn't linear,
and you know, some guys need two three years to
really feel comfortable in their own skin as a somewhat
major college football quarterback. And hope this new home works
out for ty Thompson because he should have the opportunity
Ky Horton his back right as well. I don't know
how much of a battle that is in this moment.
Ky Horton looked pretty good in relief for Tulane when

(29:43):
Michael Pratt went down, but ceiling wise, it seems like
ty Thompson is the guy that owns that part of
the equation.

Speaker 1 (29:49):
Yeah. Yeah. They also have Mackay Hughes back. They're running
back who rushed for close to fourteen hundred yards last
season as a red shirt freshman, which is awesome. That
will help. It helps to kind of have that one
too punch. It's not going to be all on ty Thompson.

Speaker 2 (30:02):
Lost the big receiver to Tennessee, right, Yeah, Chris Brasel.

Speaker 1 (30:05):
Yeah. The other thing that I would add that is
really standing in Tulane's way, I think of making the
play even if they win the conference their schedule has
both Kansas State and Oklahoma on it back to back weeks.
So from a conference standpoint, that does not factor in
at all, Right, But from an overall playoff perspective, Let's

(30:28):
say they win the conference, but then we've got this
data point of how they do against Kansas State and Oklahoma.
Two games are probably going to lose. I don't think
that helps their case.

Speaker 2 (30:39):
Wait, is tou Lane on a winning streak against Kansas State?
That is my understanding. Correct, that they're on a current
winning streak against Chris Climbing and the Wildcap. Sure, sure
they beat them in twenty one, twenty two, twenty one, correct,
And I think they they sort of put the fear
of God into Lincoln Riley they did years ago they did.

Speaker 1 (31:03):
I mean, I don't think Tulane is going to be
different coach now and pushover opponent. I agree, but both
of those games are early and again ninety six in
returning production new quarterback, you don't have the veteran handback
there like they did before. Agree, it's just a different situation.

Speaker 2 (31:20):
But they don't know what they're getting from Tulane this year, right,
They're a mystery there.

Speaker 1 (31:25):
There are a bit of a mystery. So why is
Tulane dangerous. They're dangerous because they've got a good coach.
They're dangerous because I think they've shown consistency and they
still have a very talented roster. Right, none of that
stuff should be overlooked. Where they're not dangerous, there's just
a lot new. They are that unknown, and I don't
think the schedule is doing them a whole lot of favors.

(31:46):
So I think that flies in the face a little
bit of Tulane going on a deep run here this year. Okay,
fair enough, Who are you interested in next? Next? Most
among these teams? These fourteen teams in the American I mean,
do you have passing ut thoughts? I mentioned them as
like in the sort of gray area of contention just
because they've done nothing no matter what conference. They're relatively

(32:08):
new to the American of course, yeah, they compete, and
so that to me is interesting. Well there, I mean, look,
don and for last season they beat Marshall in the
bowl game. They started one in three. I remember talking
about that like who going to be a rude awakening
for UTSA going into a new conference, and then they
ripped off seven straight wins. They lost their season finale

(32:28):
against Tulane, but they ended up with a pretty good season,
and you got to feel good about UTSA just because
Jeff Trailers there. Like Jeff Trailer gets interest every year
from teams inside the state of Texas, and it feels
like he's gotten that program to a very very stable place.
They're just good every year. The reason that I am
not as high on UTSA, I'm still pretty high on them. Yeah,

(32:50):
but can they replace Big Frankie Harris, our guy at quarterback?
He was there forever felt like an eternity. It was
an eternity. He's easily at present the best player in
the history of the program, Frankie Harris and walking through
that door in twenty twenty four.

Speaker 2 (33:08):
No, but he is available on a CD box set
of the Doop Legends of the Fifties Frankie Harris continue.

Speaker 1 (33:15):
His replacement is Owen McCown, who is related the son
of Josh the nephew of Luke Right comes from quarterback pedigree.
If not McCown, it'll be somebody by the name of
Eddie Lee Marberger, who does sound like he's currently on
the run from the Feds. If I'm being a host,
but I think that, for me is the biggest question

(33:36):
about UTSA at the quarterback spot. They just had a
trusted hand year in year out who could operate that offense,
and now they don't, and so I expect there will
be a bit of a drop off there. Jeff Trailer
will have that program playing at a pretty high level
as they have for the last couple of seasons. That's
just not a question to me. It's just it's tough

(33:56):
when you lose a guy that caliber. He just you
can't can't grow that on a tree and just put
it out there on the field the next year. So
all In McCown might be the real deal. Course of
course he comes from, like I said, quarterback pedigree. But
I'm I'm a little bit lower on UTSA this year
just because they lose big Frank Am.

Speaker 2 (34:15):
I crazy in thinking that the most electric playmaker in
the conference is somebody whose team we haven't mentioned yet.

Speaker 1 (34:24):
Who's that is it? Byron Brown at usf AM? I
like feeling dangerous? You got it?

Speaker 2 (34:34):
I don't know, and they get what Bama this year.
They might got a couple of big teams, but I
know they're in Tuscaloo. So you remember that was like
the weird rain game early on last year where it
was shuffling of backup quarterbacks for the Tide. But man,
he's real good. He's fast, he throws a good ball,
he's in a fun system. He's got to score fifty
a game because they have no defense. Like I'm pretty

(34:58):
excited for the wild card Byron Brown.

Speaker 1 (35:02):
Seven and six. Last year they shut out Syracuse forty
five to nil in their bowls, Oh Boca Ratone Bowl.
If you've listened to this show at all over the
last few months, you know that Dan and I are
both pretty high on USF and the reason for that
is pretty simple. They were one and eleven and twenty
twenty two. The program was dead to rights. Jeff Scott

(35:26):
was a higher fire. Alex Golish comes in year one,
knew everything suddenly an enormous jump forward, like a resounding
shutout win in the bowl game, all of it with
a red shirt freshman. And you mentioned Byron Brown, and so,
to quote our friend Bill Connolly, almost all the reasons
for last year's improvement return which is a really good

(35:48):
starting point. Yes, this is where the returning production stat
actually matters, though it should never be the only thing
you look at when you're high on a team. It's
always much safer when you've got some supporting detail, or
when this is a supporting detail, I should say, when
you can assume that we're going to get like incremental
improvement instead of just the enormous sleep forward, that's when

(36:11):
it feels more comfortable. And Bill's right, like all of
the reasons for USF jump forward last year or back,
especially in offense where they've got nine starters coming back,
short of injury, short of unfortunate stuff that happens to
every team. I have a really hard time believing that
this offense isn't just going to continue improving, especially with
an offensive minded guy like Alex Kulesh. Yeah right. The

(36:33):
big key, though, is going to be keeping great postgame
interview too, oh, Alex Colesh. Yeah, the big key is
going to be keeping Brown up right though? Mm hmm.
Did you know outside of Jaden Daniels, he was the
only quarterback in college football to throw for more than
three thousand yards and rush for more than eight hundred.
Didn't know? It makes sense, didn't you know? And also

(36:56):
he got sacked forty three times, Yeah, which was tied
for the tenth worst in college football. So again, incremental improvement.
Incremental improvement up front makes this offense a lot better.
If they can get more out of Ni Kwan right
they're running back, they'll be better for it. He's a transfer,
he came over from Florida, won the job last season,

(37:16):
had a good statistical season, but it was really lumpy,
like a few great games which pushed up the averages,
but a bunch of stinkers sort of mixed in there.
They got to get more out of him so that
the pressure isn't all on Byron Brown on the defensive
side though, Like, this is the thing. They gave up
at least forty one points in five of their six losses.

(37:36):
That's not good enough, Dan, No, they did lose one game,
only one game where they gave up only seventeen points,
and that was the infamous Ty Simpson game against me. Yeah. Yeah,
So this is a catastrophically bad defense two years ago.
Last year it was merely really bad. If you're a
Bulls fan, you'll still take that. That's fine. It's progress.

(38:00):
Were positives there. I think the effort stats like pressure
rates and havoc rates, that stuff that again indicates Are
they trying? Are they not trying? Those numbers were pretty good,
they weren't bad at all, but they just gave up
a ton of big plays. They got skewed through the air,
especially when they played man covers. They were just bad
at doing that. The past defense, ultimately is what really

(38:20):
let this team down. So you know, as we kind
of zoom out and look at what the landscape books like,
it's not an easy schedule, but it is extremely frontloaded.
So within the first five weeks of the season, they
go to Bama, they host Miami, they go to Tulane.
If you zoom out a little bit more, there's a
bye after that two lane trip. Then they're back home
against Memphis, which is going to be like an eighty

(38:41):
five point shootout. We know that. But the rest is manageable.
If you get through that patch in the front part
of the schedule, assuming the defense can just get a
little bit more consistent us that's going to be a
damn fun watch this year.

Speaker 2 (38:55):
I know the defensive coordinator is go ahead, Todd, Orlando,
Todd Orlando. You know who their special teams coordinator is,
some guy named Chad Creamer. And you told me this
before you have a few DVDs that star somebody named
Todd Orlando Chad Creamer way back when.

Speaker 1 (39:14):
Is Chad related to Chris Kremer of the sports logo Fame.
I hope, so, I really do.

Speaker 2 (39:20):
No, USF should be fun Todd Orlando, Like, say what
you will about his time at USC It wasn't good,
but he had too many stops where he was able
to eventually build dangerous defenses that I think he should
be able to because of how active us F will
continue to be in the portal, I think he'll be
able to build a defense at USF.

Speaker 1 (39:41):
I think the ceiling is eight and four. Okay, I
think the ceiling is eight and four. But I think
they're going to put the fear of God into some
teams because the offense is so damn good.

Speaker 2 (39:49):
Okay, I think so too. And he'll be great for
NSIS State next year Byron Brown. So there's that.

Speaker 1 (39:55):
Let's go to Army like, Okay, I'm fascinated by Army
joining this. I don't have a whole lot of deep
Army takes here, okay, but I think it's interesting what
happened last year. Last year they had i'll say, noble
intentions to try and modify the offense a little bit.

(40:16):
That didn't take. No, it didn't take, and.

Speaker 2 (40:19):
They lose to Navy and don't score a lot of
points in the process.

Speaker 1 (40:22):
Yeah, towards the end of the season they just reverted
back to what they had done many years prior, and
then they actually built some momentum. They were just better
at that. So I think this year that's going to
be the marching orders, no pun intended. If Army can
build on that, if they can get the offense merely
back to a serviceable level, I am very curious about

(40:43):
what that means for this conference, because the best of Army,
the best of any option team, grinds you down. And frankly,
there are a lot of vulnerable defenses in this version
of the American. Right. Bill and Bill Connolly in his
preview of the American talked about out generally speaking, a
downward trend in the conference where they have essentially been

(41:08):
forced to trade quality for quantity because of conference realignment,
because of a number of factors. It's not just one thing.
And so the American after years of being kind of
this beacon in G five, this conference that we held
up as being like the cream of the crop. That's
not so much the case anymore, and they're just a

(41:29):
lot of teams that are kind of teetering, and especially
on the defensive side of the ball, that's where you
see the weakness. That's where Army, that's where Navy present
really interesting challenges, especially in just sort of the normal
flow of a conference schedule, where they're so different to
prepare for. They grind you down so much when they're
at their best, they could put some teams in a

(41:50):
real pickle defensively. I don't know if it happens this year,
but I'm glad Army is in this conference. I think
it'll make things far more interesting than they were last year.

Speaker 2 (41:58):
Yeah, I tend to agree, and I like the specificity
of it all. Like Memphis is gonna be, you know,
have a big offense, and Army's gonna run it, Navy's
gonna run it. Tulane should be relatively balanced. UAB is
probably gonna throw a bunch of checkdowns like they did
it all last year. In surprise, surprise, Trent Dilfer runs
an offense that features a bunch of checkdowns, efficient short

(42:19):
passes or whatever. UTSA should be fun on offense. And
then like you look at like Tulsa seems like they're
gonna continue to be disappointing. Temple seems like they're gonna
continue to be disappointing.

Speaker 1 (42:28):
Charlotte.

Speaker 2 (42:29):
I'm at least intrigued because of Biff po Gee and
bringing in a bunch of like higher level transfers from
big places.

Speaker 1 (42:35):
FAU.

Speaker 2 (42:36):
There's no spark to me with FAU in this moment.
ECU has been down. Maybe there's a spark there, but
I don't know. There's a bunch of teams where you're
just like, give me something, Please give me that reason
to care about you.

Speaker 1 (42:48):
Do you know who got the G five playoff spot
when they simulated a full season in the new EA
College Football video game. There's a new EA College football
video game. I know it came out of nowhere. Weird, Okay,
what team got that? The Rice Owls got it. Okay,
six and seven last season lost a bowl game to

(43:09):
Texas State. This year they lose both JT. Daniels and
Luke McCaffrey and they're still fifth in returning production, which
is kind of wild. Great. Their new quarterback is EJ. Warner.
You know who that is? Temple yep. From Temple. It's
Kurt Warner's son, yep. So it comes with some acclaim.
The offensive line is enormous. I think they're going to

(43:30):
be able to overpower a good chunk of the teams
on their schedule. The defense is number one nationally. As
I said earlier in returning production, the win total per
vegas is six and a half. Rice is interesting for
our folks out on Discord who have been Rice fans
for a while. Yeah, this version of Rice is particularly

(43:52):
intriguing to me. Oh my god. I okay, but laugh
at me. I'm laughing. Continue, you have to laugh at me.
We're all friends here, Okay. I am a Rice believer
to some extent. I don't know what they're going to
get out of YOUJ Warner. That to me is sort
of the big open question. I think Rice could be

(44:15):
very spicy in this conference. I think they could be
just a real pain in the ass for everybody that
they have to play. There's a lot back, but they
got to get it at the quarterback position. They have to.
That's all. I agree. That's all say about that. That's
that's pretty much to everybody. Yeah, laugh at me for Rice.
How dare you yeah, continue, You know I always love

(44:35):
when who did you mention? It was EJ. Warner at Rice?

Speaker 2 (44:39):
Where you you have no I have no concept of
if a player is a red shirt freshman or like
a sixth year COVID senior. That anytime I study any
of these teams, in any of these conferences, I just
fully expect to see a name like, oh, yeah, CU
brought in Kurt Bankert. What but they had like James
Madison brought in Dylan Morris from Washington, Like oh cool,

(45:00):
Dil Morris, send it up somewhere like I I have
no idea like because of all of these names, Because
of all this movement, I lose full complete track of
eligibility years continue.

Speaker 1 (45:11):
If we want to put it and take a toe,
I can start tak a toe up that Kurt Bankerd
is playing for EC this year that time. I don't
think Kurt Banker is going to be playing for Easy.
Oh more takes.

Speaker 2 (45:22):
Why it's such a good take. Actually, Tutieth is incorrect.
Twenty sixteen sophomore Kurt Bankert from Virginia is that, yeah,
Virginia is going to be playing for CU.

Speaker 1 (45:35):
I'm just going to ring Baker taking weird football content
these days? Is he he is? Yeah? Okay, he's his
own like JT. O. Sullivan. Yeah, I just thought of JT. O. Sullivan.
It's pretty good. Actually, I'm going over on that six
and a half win total for Rice. Oh, okay, in
on Rice, I mean on Rice. All right, let me
let me buzz through some of these other teams. I
mentioned Army, I'll mention Navy quickly five and seven. Last

(45:58):
year it was Brian Newberry's first year. They're trying to
fix their offense too. They hired a guy away from
Mercer the Bears to come in and revive the rushing attack.
He runs a solid program. He runs something called, quote
the millennial version of the wing T offense, which is

(46:19):
interesting on a number of levels because Drew Chronic, the
name of this gentleman, is not a millennial. He was
born in nineteen seventy four. I would love born with
the pulse tie. I'd love more info on how he
came to this labeling. But it is a hybrid wing
T offense. It should look like a hybrid of the
triple option that Navy's been running with the spread option,

(46:43):
some combination of those two things. His pedigree is interesting
rushing offenses. Navy's a good spot for that. We'll see
how it fares. I don't know. I think it makes
them interesting. Last year they were one hundred and tenth
in rushing success rate. Not ideal. Obviously got to be
about improvement. Yeah, we'll see what this dude can do.

Speaker 2 (47:01):
At least he didn't call it like the wing T
four K No, No, nothing like that. No, that crav
was that highly highly dynamic, highly diversified. What was the
HD in that? It wasn't supposed to It was something
fun continue.

Speaker 1 (47:16):
The defense was okay. They were plus eleven and turnover
margin Navy was tied for fourth nationally. In theory, you
create turnovers, you slow the game down when you get
the ball. If you can move the ball, if you
can eat the clock, that's that's one way to win,
and I think that's the way that they're going to
try to win. Brian Newberry's pedigree is a defensive mind.
So hopefully if he can join forces with Drew Chronic again,

(47:38):
the dude they brought over from Mercer, if they can
revitalize this offense, that put Navy an interesting spot. Yeah,
but you know, we'll see again, it's it's kind of
an open question if they can accomplish that.

Speaker 2 (47:50):
Every time you say Drew Chronic, I laugh just a
little bit every time. And sure, I that was your
mixtape in high school, that was your name. But like
Drew Chronic, you can say that with the straight face. Okay, FAU,
the owl is another owl here.

Speaker 1 (48:08):
Yeah. Four and eight team Tom Herman's first year. Last year,
it's notable that FAU has the easiest schedule in the country. Great. Also,
they got crushed in returning production, crushed, lost thirty four
guys to the portal they brought in twenty. I don't
have a whole lot more to add beyond that. I

(48:30):
think this is a prolonged rebuild. I don't think this
is instantly gonna pop. I think we like Tom. Tom
Herman's been on the show. I think we like Tom Herman,
and there's a lot there to suggest that he can
in time build up this program. It's isn't gonna take
a while. He's still getting the rostered order. It's just yeah,

(48:52):
that's really it. Yeah, Willie Taggert did a full on
bad job. Yeah he didn't, And it's going to take
a minute. FAU with some It is hypothetically one of
those places that can build a roster of transfers from
the area and win games. H ECU is interesting to
me this year down here last year three and nine
to two to ten last year. The upside is that

(49:15):
a good chunk of the underlying numbers, like we don't
play the game on paper, but the underlying numbers and
that type of thing were better than the final record.
They had four to one score losses against Rice, Charlotte, Twulane,
and Tulsa. Three of those were at home. So last
year's team was driven almost entirely by its defense. It's

(49:36):
a defense that brings a ton back this year. Okay,
I think I'm I think we'll continue to see improvement
on the defensive side of the ball. Chavon revel is
the name to know. He's their star corner, almost certainly
a future draft pick. He kind of leads the way
on defense. But there they're again going to be driven
by that defense. It's just offense, right, It's a quarterback

(49:58):
race between a couple interesting names he may be familiar with,
notably Jake Garcia, who's now on another stole. Oh that's right,
I did see this, Yeah, Jake Garcia transfers in from Missoo.
Catenhauser transfers down from Michigan State. I don't think they're
going two and ten again, but I think unless there
is market improvement, this could be it for Mike Houston.
Like that's that was a really good program back in

(50:21):
the day, and they have fallen on some hard times here.
So he's he's got to prove, kind of like Neil
Brown did last year, that he can turn this thing
around and get them on more of an upward trajectory.

Speaker 2 (50:33):
Okay, I enjoyed your I hear you, butt, and we
can give Bill c his choice of like the Bowl
teams and his special Bowl that have teams that don't
have five hundred records that can go to the underlying
numbers Bowl Like, look, I know these two three and
nine teams lost all of their There are bunch sized.

Speaker 1 (50:53):
Games, you know, we we we find this, especially this
time of year when we're digging into what did these
teams do last year? Yeah, more often than not, you've
got a bunch of them that we're in just a
ridiculous amount of one score games. I've got one when
we talk about the MAC that will blow your mind. Okay, okay,
I've got one that is sort of like the King

(51:13):
of the stat but a last there are many more.
We'll talk through them. Let me round this conference out
here by talking about the final five teams. North Texas Dan. Yeah,
I'll gas no breaks once again. Five and seven a
year ago made a coaching change. Might be Chandler Morris,

(51:33):
you're starting.

Speaker 2 (51:34):
Probably will be yeah, might be him at a quarter
a third team, Yeah, he.

Speaker 1 (51:40):
Could be one of eight new starters on this offense.
It was an offense that was good last year, had
no support on defense whatsoever. None. This was pretty much
the worst defense in the country. The numbers here are ridiculous.
I mean, four hundred and seventy six yards a game,
thirty seven points per game. Yeah, it's impossible to win

(52:03):
with numbers like that. And still they won five games,
which actually, like five and seven is not a great record.
It's not the worst, but when you look at those
numbers and how bad they were on defense, it's actually
kind of impressive that they wont any games at all. Right,
every game is a shootout when you play like that
on defense, So you know they've they've got kind of

(52:25):
a retooled front seven this year kind of okay, they
should be better for the Mean Green this year, and
the Front seven, I think is is where they really
need to improve. They want to get better. It needs
to be better, if only because it can't possibly literally
cannot get any worse. They were horrible.

Speaker 2 (52:42):
Don't challenge, Tie, don't you challenge? Don't you lay down
that sword? From a ranked stand dare.

Speaker 1 (52:49):
You from a ranking standpoint, sure it cannot get any worse.
Maybe it can because there's another team in FBS this year. Yeah,
so I guess technically it could, but that's a stretch
for me. I am concerned about this team because the
defense was really bad last year and there is so
much new on offense. But should be a hell of

(53:10):
a TV show, Yeah, Mean Green.

Speaker 2 (53:13):
I don't know, man, it's probably not a great TV
show if you're a North Texas fan.

Speaker 1 (53:17):
No, we know Patreon membership that it hasn't been a
la watch of North Texas. People talk about North Texas.
But what a challenge you've laid. Can't get worse?

Speaker 2 (53:29):
It definitely can always get worse. Ty, You've watched the
sport long enough to know that this team, this defense,
whatever it gets, they play.

Speaker 1 (53:37):
With nine men. That's the only way it can definitely happen,
and they don't. The offense is now face sure, they
don't give red cards in football, at least not yet.
I don't think it can possibly get you worse than
it was last year. Okay, fair enough, uab Trent Dilfer
four and eight. Last year the offense was all right,
like it wasn't horrible. Jacob Zeno, Jacob Zeno was a quarterback.

(54:00):
You remember him from the Baylor days. He's back. I
think four or five linemen in front of him are
back as well, So the offense will be okay, it's
just a defense man. You said it earlier. North Texas
was the worst in the country. These guys were second worst.
Now they signed a bunch of defenders in the portal.
I again, it's another situation where they have to be better.

(54:22):
They have to be better because they can't get much worse.
Frankly though, a year into this and we'll know more.
Obviously come December. It's still looking like a dumb hire, right.
You know when they hired Trent Dilfort, Dilfert raised eyebrows like, oh,
what are we doing here? Why? They and they gave
their own justification for it, and that's fine. It looks
like a bad hire who to thunk, looks like a

(54:44):
bad hire.

Speaker 2 (54:46):
Man, which, by the way, reminds me how many former
Baylor quarterbacks are out there right now.

Speaker 1 (54:51):
Oh my god, so many.

Speaker 2 (54:52):
So you've got Kyraen Drones in Virginia Tech. I think
Gary Bohannon is off to BYU Yep, Blake shaping at
Mississippi State.

Speaker 1 (54:59):
Jacobs Z.

Speaker 2 (55:00):
You know at UAB is Sawyer Robertson still at Baylor.
I do not know, oh, ty, do not have like
a Sawyer Robertson Google alert set?

Speaker 1 (55:09):
Unfortunately I deleted it.

Speaker 2 (55:11):
Okay, But the undeveloped Baylor quarterback tentacles like we talk about,
like the Bill Parcells coaching tree. Yeah, the Dave Randa appears.
Soyer Robertson is still in Waco.

Speaker 1 (55:25):
Excellent.

Speaker 2 (55:25):
The undeveloped Baylor quarterback tree, probably improving elsewhere, is probably
alone in its specific merit right now in college.

Speaker 1 (55:36):
And Sawyer Robertson will be playing for one of these
teams next year after Aranda gets fired. So yeah, he'll
be at Texas State, He'll be somewhere. Yeah. Three final
teams here and then I'll turn it over to you
to talk about Conference USA for a bit. Yeah, Tulsa,
Charlotte and Temple three teams that are going to be
at bottom of the conference. Like Kevin Wilson went four

(55:57):
to eight in his first year at Tulsa. Not great
from a returning production standpoint. Pretty Much the entire front
seven and all but one of the offensive linemen need
to be replaced this coming season, which isn't a good start.
The irony is that the skill position guys are actually
pretty good, Like Anthony Watkins at running back is pretty decent,
Camden Benjamin out wide is really solid. It just seems

(56:18):
like it's going to be too much to overcome not
having the trenches sorted out. So I'm not too optimistic
about Tulsa this season. And Tulsa should never be a
team that misses bowl games too. No, No, they shaven.

Speaker 2 (56:30):
Location, given history, given recent defenses, offensive developments like that,
that should always be a bowl caliber team.

Speaker 1 (56:37):
It should be. They've, like you said, they've had a
lot of success there. Yeah, but it's another situation where
they're still trying to get the roster in order. Yep.
And this year, the returning production thing, and their losses
in particular are just not helpful. Charlotte three and nine
last year and bif po Gee your boys first year.
Their offensive stats were a car crash. Yes, they were

(57:03):
an absolute frigging car crash last season, and they weren't
much better on defense. In terms of the sp plus
which we know and love on this show, twenty seven
spots worse on offense, sixteen spots better on defense, and
five spots worse on special teams last year versus the
year prior. Okay, so some improvement mostly not still bad.

(57:28):
The intrigue here, though, is that again he is going
very heavy on the portal and trying to restock the roster.
So didn't quite take your one, trying it again your two.
We'll see, we'll see, We'll see if it helps him
grow some sleeves this year on his game day get
up all right? Fair enough and last but certainly not
least the temple aals year two. Understand, Drayton. They went

(57:52):
three to nine, They lost DJ Warner, their quarterback to
the portal feels like a full rebus in year three,
which is not hopeful for stand. That means it's yeah,
that means it's done so in all likelihood for Stan Drayton.
But you know, Temple has been a program that's shown
patients in the past. I don't know if they're in
any great rush to pay a buy out and fire

(58:14):
a coach or anything of that nature. But does not
look does not appear as if things are pointed in
the good direction for the Temple Owls.

Speaker 2 (58:21):
Yeah, let me stop me if this exists for every
team in the conference, counting on a lot of transfers
on defense, right, that's the name not generally a great
place to be if you've lost a ton of games already.
All Right, so you're champion is too Memphis.

Speaker 1 (58:35):
My champion is Memphis. Yeah, my champion is Memphis. But uh,
and I didn't want to kind of spoil the American
preview by saying this at the top. Yeah, but I
I could not help but feel a bit underwhelmed coming
out of my American preview, especially after I again, I
feel like we have held this conference up for a

(58:56):
good long time as kind of like the the t
that other G five conference conferences should aspire to be. Yeah,
it didn't leave me feeling very optimistic this season.

Speaker 2 (59:09):
I think there's enough that's intriguing in the top half
of the American It's.

Speaker 1 (59:14):
Memphis is interesting, Tulane is interesting, UTSA USF. Those four teams, Yeah,
that's kind of enough. Though.

Speaker 2 (59:22):
If you have four interesting competitive teams at the top,
that means you're gonna get enough good October November matchups
that are meaningful. Hopefully it's not a back to back
like the American has had Conference championship final Game of
the Week matchup.

Speaker 1 (59:34):
But I don't know.

Speaker 2 (59:36):
That's I think that's a pretty good place to be,
especially because we're going to transition right now to Conference USA,
which my preview is gonna be a lot shorter because
there's just not Look, that's the top is Liberty. That's
Liberty alone. Okay, Liberty you know ends last season winning
the Conference USA Championship over New Mexico State, a very
good New Mexico State team that had just beaten Auburn

(59:57):
before losing to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. They lose
their best receiver to l s U CJ. Daniels, Caden
Salter returns. The offense should be very good once again.
They're gonna run the hell out of the ball, and
that Jamie Chadwell offense defense was somewhat average last year.

Speaker 1 (01:00:11):
They should be once again.

Speaker 2 (01:00:12):
They bring in some bigger school experience transfers. They are
the prohibitive favorite to win Conference USA once again because
of the level of talent and the level of investment
and the level of transfers and what the rest of
the conference is dealing with right now. Intriguing enough, Tyson
Hilton Hilltoppers.

Speaker 1 (01:00:30):
Who whaho? Who? What are we doing here? What is
this your first day on the job? Yeah, oh you want,
you want? That's Danger Conference USA. You gotta let me
play the stab at the top to really gotta be quick,
ty Well, I didn't know you were going to keep talking.

(01:00:52):
Of course I'm gonna keep talking. I have a lot
to say. So you're what are your danger tiers here? Say?
Liberty is at the top.

Speaker 2 (01:01:00):
Liberties alone at the top as the as a clear contender.
And then just in terms of danger, I have WKU
and probably Jacksonville State agreed. And then the rest of
the teams are anywhere between non competitive, new and you know,
at best a wild card with a new coach or
an overhauled roster, right, And that's just how it works.

(01:01:22):
And by the way Conference USA, Conference USA, and you
mentioned this a little bit of the American. I think
it's more pronounce in Conference USA. It's a very strange conference.
It's it's incredibly strange. So a ton of turnover like
every conference, but like a ton of like new teams
entering the FBS Division have entered through Conference USA or

(01:01:42):
the portal for new teams independence joining conferences like New
Mexico State recently, Kennessas State, the Owls who have only
been a program for like nine ten years becoming an
FBS team joining Conference USA, Jacksonville State, New Sam Houston
New Like there's just an know it's I think Bill
Connolly called it the Ellis Island of conferences, just welcoming

(01:02:04):
huddled masses yearning to breathe free.

Speaker 1 (01:02:07):
Yeah. Liberty by the way, so you're right, I mean,
Liberty is I think the prohibitive favorite in this conference.
A very weird schedule. They've got by weeks in both
week six and eight, okay, which I don't know if
I've ever seen before. It seems as if they're trying

(01:02:27):
to stock up, like they saw the playoff getting bigger
in the window. And Jamie Chadwell added a ton of
transfers in the front seven guys from power conferences along
with some guys from G five schools. This defense was
atrocious last season and it didn't really matter until the
Fiesta Bowl. That's where we saw it on display against
the Oregon.

Speaker 2 (01:02:46):
Well that doesn't mean anything. There doesn't mean any building
to compete with Oregon. But yeah, doesn't mean anything.

Speaker 1 (01:02:50):
They are now though. They are now though. I think
they kind of see this invitation into the playoffs as
a reason to try and stock things up on the
defense the ball, and so they've tried to do that.
They're going to be able to again outscore most of
the teams in the conference. They've got that awesome game
that we alluded to at the top of the show
in Week five against app State, which could end up

(01:03:13):
being a de facto playing game for the playoffs. Sure
and otherwise, Yeah, otherwise, we're going to be talking a
lot about Caden Salter and Quentin Cooley. They're running back.

Speaker 2 (01:03:22):
Yeah, yeah, both very good. Quinn Cooley, you know, transfers
from I think Wake Forest a couple of years ago. No,
Liberty is going to be very good. Once again, there's
not much to add right now. They are just in
an advantage position within Conference USA. I was starting to
transition to Western Kentucky. Yeah, I waited to get in

(01:03:42):
that very sexy intro.

Speaker 1 (01:03:43):
I needed to get in the sexy interrot. I know
how big is the gap between Liberty and Western.

Speaker 2 (01:03:51):
Not terribly large, because Western Kentucky has a good amount
of continuity with Tyson Helton being there now for a
few years and bringing in TJ. Finley, who has now
gone on to play for four schools in five years.

Speaker 1 (01:04:05):
Beautiful LSU Auburn.

Speaker 2 (01:04:07):
Last year at Texas State through for a tonnage of
yards now moves into what Austin Reid spot at Western
Kentucky should be a wide open offense. They need to
be a much more balanced offense. They need to stop
people a lot more defensively. But there's a good amount
of firepower at WKU in that matchup against Liberty is
legit exciting, So it's a tear down. But in terms

(01:04:31):
of danger, it's Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State and it's
rich Rod. They're going to continue to run the ball well.
They need to throw the ball better, they need to
play better defense, but there's enough promise at Jacksonville State,
and what I was saying about Conference USA, which sort
of differs it the level isn't as high as the
American but the coaching ceilings of just the guys who

(01:04:53):
have tried to reshape their careers as like second or
third act type coaches. So it's Jamie chad Well, it's
Mike McIntyre at FIU, Rich Rod at Jacksonville State, Like
there's there's good enough names here. Sunny Comby has been
a big conference coordinator, Eric Mason, Derek Mason now at
Middle Tennessee, Like there's interesting enough names in this conference

(01:05:17):
that like, I don't have faith that you're going to
turn you know, Middle Tennessee into a ten and two
program or something like that, but I have enough faith
that these coaches won't make bonehead sort of newbie mistakes,
which I think is an interesting floor to have for
a number of these programs.

Speaker 1 (01:05:33):
And the other thing that I would add you mentioned
sort of together in like that feeling dangerous tier. Western
Kentucky Jacksonville State both have gone out and hired new
coordinators to try and fix what ailed them a year ago. Yeah,
so Western hires will friend to come in and be
the new offensive coordinator pretty much hired to come in

(01:05:53):
and fix the rushing attack. Last on the ground, yeah,
it was all on Austin Reid, as you mentioned, and
there's a lot back this year. They get nine star
back on offense, TJ. Finley. If they can give him
a little bit more support on the ground, he'll be
better for it. And on the flip side with Jacksonville State,
Luke Olson, who I kept referring to as lut Olsen.
Different guy. He comes in and runs. Of course, the

(01:06:15):
aggressive attacking defense, the three three five that they're hoping
can give them a little bit more pop. There's been
a lot of turnover on that defense from a year ago.
It was a pretty good defense last year. All things
can sie, Yeah, but they want a different system that
can come in and help them, and you know, especially
with so much new that's interesting. The only other point

(01:06:36):
that I would add about Jacksonville State, Tyler Huff is
a really interesting name to me. Tyler Huff is a
transfer quarterback from Furman. He had a good run with
Furman last year. Curious to see what he looks like
in the rich Rod system.

Speaker 2 (01:06:50):
Sure fair enough. Logan's mothers also at Jacksonville State.

Speaker 1 (01:06:55):
And Zion.

Speaker 2 (01:06:56):
It's a it seems like a full on quarterback value.
Logan's mothers Zion Turner answers in from Yukon. You know,
potential double Zion situation with last year's quarterback being Zion
Web who had like all the the off field will
he or won't he get on the field to start
the year with eligibility stuff.

Speaker 1 (01:07:11):
So yeah, I.

Speaker 2 (01:07:12):
Think Jacksonville State is promising. And when you can run
the hell out of the ball, it certainly is advantageous
for your own defense. So Jacksonville State should be in
an interesting place. And then it's just sort of a morass,
right you have Kennesad joining the conference and they've had
a coach they he was like almost immediately successful for
the Owls, but you know it's been up and down recently,

(01:07:33):
and they're just going to take a minute to get
used to a new level. New Mexico State starting over
sort of Tony what are we calling him? With John
Miller's voice, Tonyz who played in New Mexico State. He
coached at UNLV, but they got decimated by the Portal
when Jerry Kill left, including you know, losing Diego Pavia
to Vandy with Jerry Kill who takes over as like

(01:07:53):
an assistant head coach or whatever.

Speaker 1 (01:07:57):
I read off the damage you mentioned, you know, by
all means total. Yeah, they lost their top two quarterbacks,
top two running backs, seven of eight leading wide receivers,
their top six defensive linemen, and eleven of thirteen defensive backs.

Speaker 2 (01:08:10):
Yeah, that's decimated. I think that counts. Yeah, agreed, Which
is a shame because they were one of the cooler
stories last year and a program that has been so
traditionally down and Jerry Kill just does nothing but win
a good number of games and did so and you know,
everything got kind of lost in the politics of it
all and everybody falling out of love with each other.
But too bad for New Mexico State.

Speaker 1 (01:08:31):
The other thing on kennisaw real quick. So Kenna saw
a new FBS team of the one hundred and thirty
fourth team this year. They run a pistol option great,
which is fun. We've got our assault action. Yeah, they've
They've got a lot back, sixteen starters back from a
year ago. It's just a huge step up. I don't
think they're going to come in and take the world
by storm. Of course, as we've seen with pretty much

(01:08:54):
every newcomer to FBS outside of James Madison. Depth is
always an issue, defense is always an issue. These are
kind of constants for schools that take that step up.
But I think just their style of play is interesting.
It is certainly a bit of a zag as compared
to some of the other programs that we're talking about here,
which are more wide open. Certainly different than a team

(01:09:18):
like we Western Kentucky's going to be better, but they
run just a drastically different system than some of the
other schools that they're going to play against, which is neat.

Speaker 2 (01:09:25):
By the way, just on the topic of zag, UTEP
makes a change as the head coach hires Austin P's
Scotty Walden, and he's doing like the Tyson Helton Zach
Kittley line change where he's bringing in a bunch of
Austin p players. Nobody knows how good they'll actually be.
UTEP is a tough place to win, but by all accounts,

(01:09:48):
the man runs hot.

Speaker 1 (01:09:49):
Yeah, he does run.

Speaker 2 (01:09:52):
So that's fun just in terms of like they might
go to and ten, but those two might get weird.
UTEP is interesting to me. Probably it's a longer term play,
but yeah, I'm always, you know, rooting for teams like
Utexs to rise up.

Speaker 1 (01:10:07):
He's definitely done the wind change thing. But there's also
I think a pretty significant effort to focus more on
high school recruiting, especially in Texas. Sure, so I think
they're trying to like use the immediate levers available to
them to put a roster together and jumpstart the program.

(01:10:28):
But the longer term plan is going to be Texas
high school recruiting for Scotti Wolden has to be if
it works, if it works, that's if it works plan is.

Speaker 2 (01:10:37):
FIU has a ways to go, and Mike McIntyre is
a quality coach. He's turned programs around like Colorado and
San Jose State. They just I don't know, they're not
building out that roster. They're not a transfer destination. They're just,
I don't know. They seem doomed to hope to go
five hundred. That's the kind of program that I think
is happening right now at FIU.

Speaker 1 (01:10:54):
Did you get transfixed by Kewan Jenkins the way I did?
Who he is great?

Speaker 2 (01:11:00):
Yeah, But that's the problem with a program like FIU,
Like there's a guy on offense and a guy on defense.

Speaker 1 (01:11:05):
It's a young team though it was a young team
last year, and in some cases they seem to get
better as the year war on. And so if if
we're now in year three of Mike McIntyre, if he's
as focused on player development as he's seemed to be, right,
maybe there's a jump this year. I'm not like super

(01:11:27):
optimistic about that. I like their quarterback. I still think
they're pretty young across the board, like it. I think
we could see some progress there, even if it's not
jumping off the page at US.

Speaker 2 (01:11:37):
I worry sometimes when I see that though, where it's
just like they were really young last year. We like,
maybe they were really young because the older players that
were in the program didn't like being there or were
misevaluated and nowhere near as good. And so what makes
these young players that much more promising beyond the adjective young?

Speaker 1 (01:11:55):
Yeah, you're right, you're right. What do we make of
Sam Houston Louisiana in Middle Tennessee.

Speaker 2 (01:12:01):
Wuisiana texts in a tough place. It's hard to see
them turning around. I just you know, they had their
like very small window with Skip Holtz, and you know
they have this history of building out interesting offenses, but
I don't know, it's tough to see this being turned around.
Middle Tennessee is interesting because of Derek Mason. He's bopped

(01:12:21):
around as a coordinator these past couple of years, but
you know, he was able to do interesting things that
Vanderbilt has recruited that state, in that region. So it's
weird with Middle Tennessee being just like stock still HQ
for as long as it was to have a new
face in there. So I know, I'm hopeful that you know,
Derek Mason can Tedford eyes Middle Tennessee sure where you

(01:12:45):
know he has some coaching acumen and if he's re
energized somewhere that it could be interesting. Sam Houston still
very new and finished the season strong I believe last year,
So Sam Houston can be I think interesting. But another
one of those programs that like if a left guard
gets hurt, the season's over, that you know that they

(01:13:06):
don't have the depth, that they don't have the firepower
on both sides of the ball, and hopefully they're dangerous.
Hopefully they're you know, again well coached, because they did
have a good amount of success as an FCS program
that you know within conference USA. Within you know, the
conference that has as many changes and as many sort

(01:13:26):
of average to blow average teams, it's begging for somebody
to just randomly go eight and four.

Speaker 1 (01:13:31):
Sam Houston lost its first eight games, and they just
jumped up. Last year. The offense was terrible, the run
game was bad, the defense was good. Now they got
to replace a lot this year, but you're right, they
did get better. One they're finally beat Memphis, uh or
Middle Tennessee not Memphis. Yeah right, Sam Houston beat a

(01:13:52):
Tennessee school to close out the season last year, thank you.
And on that point, Middle Tennessee, like I think I'm
with you. It was the Rick stock Still Show forever.
There is talent on hand there for Derek Mason. There
aren't a whole lot of players that knock me over.
There are a lot of guys who I look at
and I say, hey, they could be all right. They

(01:14:14):
could be all right. But it's a situation where they're
learning new schemes on both sides of the ball. Not
usually a great formula like holding willis the slot receiver
is a lot of fun. But outside of that, I
think it's going to be it's going to be a
situation where there's just a lot new again and you
know it's going to be a work in progress. I
sort of disagree on Louisiana Tech Okay Sonny Comby is

(01:14:37):
six and eighteen. I want to say in two seasons. Yeah,
I do think there's a lot pointed in the right
direction for Louisiana Tech. Okay. Health was a huge issue
for this team last year. They gotta stay healthy. It
is your three. Your three is often when you see

(01:14:59):
some joke. So I am I am remaining optimistic. I'm
not willing to burn the boats yet. When we talk
about LA Tech lost Hank Bachmeier though Ty, they did
lose Hank. They did lose Hank. Yeah, but I'm I'm
I'm gonna hold out hope that this could be a
year that we see some fortunes start.

Speaker 2 (01:15:18):
To change, Okay for lock kind of the bummer here.
I was also within this conference is everything's pointed towards
the end of the year, when it would have been
nice too earlier on get a nice idea of you know,
how vulnerable if at all is Liberty. But like they
play Western Kentucky, I think late November and Western Kentucky
plays Jacksonville State maybe the week after that, so it's

(01:15:39):
all sort of, you know, the top seams jammed together
at the end of the year.

Speaker 1 (01:15:43):
Thank you so much for downloading, for listening, for supporting.
We would encourage all of you to reach out and
let us know what we got right, what we got wrong,
what else we should know about your teams, maybe what
you are most interested in. The easiest way to do
that soliverbo at gmail dot com. You can, of course
reach out to us across any of our social media platforms.

(01:16:05):
We've got all of them, I think at this point,
so reach out, let us know your thoughts on any
of these previews. In part two, we're going to talk
about the Mountain West, the Sun Belt, and the MAC
and that episode is coming up next week. After that,
we've got all sorts of Power Conference previews that we're
going to do. I think we're going to go in
the order of the ACC, the Big twelve, then the SEC,

(01:16:27):
then the Big ten. A lot coming your way over
the next five weeks or so. It feels really good
to do this again. Yeah, baby, It's a lot of
cramming for you and I A lot of cramming to
get used to new names and new places and new situations.
But it always feels really redeeming to do a show

(01:16:50):
like this, to talk it all out and see where
we agree and disagree. So I'm excited.

Speaker 2 (01:16:54):
What year was the Magna cart assigned? You probably crammed
that information at a certain point. Definitely, dah fifteen, fourteen,
fifteen twelve. I thought it was in the thirteen, fifteen twenty.

Speaker 1 (01:17:07):
Couldn't tell you.

Speaker 2 (01:17:07):
I think it's fifteen's Magna Carta signed Here we go
twelve fifteen.

Speaker 1 (01:17:14):
H I guess I would win lipped it. I was
yours closer. I was closer. Damn. This is fun. Part two.
Come in your way. Don't forget to hit follow or subscribe.
If you made it this far, we'd love to have
you with us all season long. Forballers dot com is
where you can go for bonus content, ad free episodes,
and all of the fun tricks that we're going to
unveil here in a few short weeks, says, the season

(01:17:36):
gets a little bit closer. But Dan Rubinstein, one of
our many previews now officially in the books, love it.
Can't wait for that guy over there, Dan Rubinstein for myself,
ty hiling Bed thanks again for downloading, for listening, for supporting,
hit follow, hit subscribe, leave a rating, leave a review.
We'll talk to y'll soon. Stay solid, peace,

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Group of Five Tiers + American & CUSA Conference Previews - 2024 College Football

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Group of Five Tiers + American & CUSA Conference Previews - 2024 College Football