December 9, 2024 • 60 mins
Hello show notes readers!
I hope this episode finds you well. We are dabbling with a weekly release schedule here this quarter and hope you enjoy a little extra content.
This week on Unqualified Advice: Dan flys to Cebu and I drive up the Pacific Coast Highway and we arrive at the same point: Nat Eliason is wrong and The Fourth Turning is nowhere near it's end.
Chapters
00:00 Weather and Reflections on the Philippines Trip
06:41 Work and Transparency in Business
09:06 The Fourth Turning Discussion
-11:54 Crisis and Reconstruction
-14:36 Economic Perspectives on Tariffs
-17:16 The Future of Trade and Manufacturing
-23:29 Envisioning a Golden Age
-26:25 The Impact of Global Trade on Society
-27:21 Trust in Government Institutions
-31:02 Reforming Entitlement Programs
-35:47 The Future of Social Security
41:02 The Importance of Connection with Nature
43:21 Navigating Parenthood Challenges
-46:13 Support Systems for Parents
-49:17 Socioeconomic Disparities in Education
-52:15 The Role of Service in Society
-55:21 Progress and Challenges in Society
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Yeah, so you know, I'm for the chaos, I'm for chaotic neutral is my alignment I thinkright now.
If you were to, yeah, if you were put me in the D &D table alignment, I would be chaoticneutral thoroughly right now.
(01:03):
Hey, Sean.
Hey, Dan, how are you doing this fine sunny morning?
Well, sunny here at least.
cloudy here, but we've had some decent weather.
It's trying so hard to reach 60 degrees every day.
I went on a walk yesterday while I was on a call and I got, you know, I was dressed forcooler temperatures, but I got legitimately hot in the sunshine while walking.
(01:27):
So I'll take it even though there's still a bunch of snow on the ground from when I was inthe Philippines.
Dang.
You got snow on the ground and you still were sweating.
We got sun here.
I went out and got on the bike the other day and I was still kind of chilly because it'skind of cool and humid here.
Went right through everything.
(01:47):
yeah, that's true.
You got a little more wind speed.
Yeah, definitely.
You gotta dress differently.
me on my walk yesterday and they were all bundled up, gloves and the whole bit, eventhough I was like trying to shed clothes.
It's a different setup.
So yeah, you mentioned getting back from the Philippines.
(02:08):
Anything you'd like to share about your visit and time over in Cebu?
Yeah, exactly.
It was in Cebu and I think that's sort of like the Philippines second city, if you will.
And it's great.
I mean, as soon as I landed, was like, check Southeast Asia.
It feels like it.
(02:29):
But in the Philippines, English is just so, so easy to use.
just sort of like navigating the fabric of everything was just easy.
want to...
call it right?
Like sometimes you land in certain, I've had the privilege of doing lots of travel andsometimes you land and it's just hard to navigate.
(02:52):
and the Philippines was not that way at all.
I hung out with my team.
had, basically four full days to, to be together.
The first two were sort of more work oriented.
did some one-on-ones, and got through some topics.
was nice to be able to just like sit next to someone laptop to laptop and
jam on something because we're often working in separate time zones.
(03:15):
Creating overlap is difficult at times.
yeah, so that was really nice.
And then the second two days we did just more exploring.
They got me out in the mountains.
We did a big hike and we got to see some more touristy things and stuff like that.
So it was was a really great trip.
And I got home 24 hours later than I was supposed to because of a canceled flight.
(03:37):
And the journey home was much longer than it should have been.
But everything else, I think, went to plan, including going to Narita, Tokyo, which wasgreat, even though I didn't leave the airport.
The Ministry of Tourism had a talk with me while I was waiting at my gate, and I got somefancy Japanese Kit Kats, and I got to say arigatou gozaimasu, and it was fun.
(04:03):
Can't wait to go back to Tokyo.
Yeah, would love to go to Tokyo someday.
I think that would be a fun place to visit.
Felt that way for a long time.
Yeah, let's do it someday.
That would be fun.
I would be totally game.
Springtime?
When the cherry blossoms, is that when it happens there?
Yeah.
really nice.
(04:24):
However, I will be puffy faced, red-eyed and carrying a box of Kleenexes everywhere we go.
That's how it worked last time.
And I would fully expect it to work that time that way again.
Well, you know, the sacrifices you make for seeing something special, right?
you know, sometimes exactly things we do, the things we do to amuse ourselves and make usfeel like there's.
(04:53):
Yeah.
So I spent, yeah, a lot shorter flight, a lot shorter flight.
I'm going to say, I flew back from San Francisco, which is slightly longer, but stillquite short.
Compared to what you were doing.
yeah, I got to go out visit.
yeah, I did my first time flying through SFO is a fine airport.
(05:14):
I thought they seemed like they were doing a pretty good job.
no, yeah, I was out in Long beach, visiting my third rubber mixer of the year.
got to sink my teeth into some, some audit skills that I hadn't used in a little while.
That was kind of fun.
I don't know, people will tell you anything.
If you just get them in the right head space, people will just tell you anything.
(05:36):
And by this, mean they are lying or they are telling you the bad
you stuff.
like, I'm like, if you, if they tell me the truth here, I'm going to be like, you probablyshouldn't tell me the truth here, but they, then they tell me the truth.
Or like, it's like, you're being very like, which I appreciate.
were, we were there, like trying to find the root of a problem.
And there things that I would just be like, man, if I was like their plant manager, I'd belike, eh, maybe we shouldn't have said that.
(05:59):
But, people will just, you know, because people want to be good hearted and open andhonest.
And it's nice to see.
And then it's not like we're gonna roast them or anything.
It's helped us like, okay, this is the problem now we know what to do.
So.
a B-School professor who was, what did he teach?
Corporate finance or something like that.
And one of his things was, you know, I come into a negotiation and I would rather take thewhole binder, the whole envelope and like lay it out on the table and say, this is it.
(06:30):
This is the information and I'm not trying to hide it from you.
Let's work with the truth.
Are you willing to do that too?
And from there you get better outcomes.
Yeah, I agree.
think, yeah, being as transparent as possible.
And that's kind of how we approached our situation as well.
(06:52):
we were looking, there looking for some stuff that we thought might not be quite right.
you know, we right at the beginning said, hey, this is why we're here.
So we're not, if we're tough or something, this is why.
And everybody was very, you know, understanding and, yeah, exactly.
Yeah.
This partnership, partnership, maybe not a, not a one way flow of value.
(07:14):
anyway.
Yeah.
So then I got to go and I had never had the, opportunity to do this, but I took the.
I shouldn't say I had had many opportunities, but I'd never actually taken any of theopportunities that were presented to me to drive, from Southern California up to, up to
Santa Rosa.
did highway.
Yeah.
Did, did.
(07:35):
one-oh-one most of the way.
And it was absolutely gorgeous.
Just absolutely.
I cannot wait to go do that again and take a little more time with it.
I was going to see somebody up in Northern California, I didn't want to dally too long,yeah, he is doing really great.
My brother Trevor, he's working for the California Parks Department and living in a tinyhouse.
(08:01):
on a new park they're building.
So it's really, he does.
Yeah.
He's renting it out, in the interim.
for
yeah, the park was really cool.
We, got to go walk around and see some of the trails he'd been working on improving andmaking, he's gonna take like another year before they open it up.
And I'm of a surprise because it looked like it was, you know, like you, yeah, it's likeyou're walking here, but I'm sure there's a lot of infrastructure and stuff that I not
(08:29):
considering toilets and electricity and things that you have to get permits for andwhatnot.
and it's California, so it takes a long time.
Yeah, think they're they're permitting and regulation is a little little stricter.
Which, you know.
I want to put a pin in that and say hopefully I'll make a family road trip and we'll allgo out and go hiking in his new park.
(08:52):
Absolutely.
So what's on your mind this week?
Anything come across your radar?
Well, there's a theme that we circle around like what every four episodes.
And it's a book called The Fourth Turning or The Fourth Turning is here.
Neil Howe.
(09:12):
anyway, I've mentioned this podcast in the past made you think by a group of guys.
One of them is Nat Eliason and I follow him on Twitter and I saw a recent tweet of his andI'll read it for all of us to get the to get on the same context here.
He says, fourth turning is over.
It started in around 2008 and ended with this election.
(09:37):
Unlike past fourth turnings, it didn't involve a hot war, rather a civil information warplus COVID.
But now it's over.
Time for reconstruction and the golden age.
His sub tweet on that is, beware though, that if you're having children now, it means yourchildren will be the spoiled generation.
So it's extra important to raise them as best as you possibly can.
So, we can, put the children golden, their children part on the back burner, but the, theposition that The Fourth Turning is over is something that I thought, since seeing this
(10:09):
from him who has read the book and taken it to heart, he's seeing the world in aparticular way.
So I thought it might be good fodder for discussion because I think you and I, we startedoff thinking this is the initiation of The Fourth Turning.
know if I'm gonna say the initiation.
(10:29):
I'm gonna say it's one of the many events that sets off the see what we're lacking in myopinion.
I think it's an it.
So we coming around here talking about the cyclicality of nature and how nature goes inthese cycles of being a crisis causing a reformation causing an awakening.
(10:52):
causing deterioration, causing a crisis, right?
And it's this continuation.
you're arguing that the crisis period is over and that we're into that new golden erawhere these new standards are set, right?
Which I think is...
I think from somebody, you were a very staunch Trump supporter, I could understand thattake, I think.
(11:13):
I think that's based on...
He doesn't strike me as a staunch Trump supporter though.
So his position struck me as, yeah.
find curious about that.
And I've been trying to wrap my head around it.
But like what my mind thinking is, I guess what he's saying here is that the pandemic in away was the ekpyrosis, the crisis event that was the.
(11:34):
And maybe that's right.
Yeah.
It might be right.
I think it ripped huge parts of our fabric apart.
Mm-hmm.
entered doubt was now more acceptable as a mainstream position against wide swaths ofsociety and government, right?
(11:55):
And with that, this is the so the golden age is sort of like the beginning of thereconstruction and change.
Is that right?
would be the premise.
And again, I dropped a word there from the book, ekpyrosis What I mean is like thisculminating large crisis event, like World War II was ekpyrosis of that turning cycle,
(12:16):
right?
And I should be able to list others from before, but for some reason, the Civil War, I'mnot able to pull them all out of my rear end here.
But there's these specific events where the culture reshapes around.
And so...
The stories we tell ourselves.
Exactly.
Very much.
(12:37):
So if we are coming to this new golden age, what does that look like?
mean, what does that...
Well, I'm still leaving on the table that we're still in like a mid cycle phase of thisfourth turning where there's there's because I think there's still things could set stuff
off.
Like part of thing about the golden age, everything's re consolidated around new norm.
(12:58):
And everybody is of that same mindset, but we're still I think, I think we might be seeingbreaking down of some of some of
divides in new ways.
It's small thing, small thing.
I can't point to any big thing, but I just feel like I see small differences ininteractions and questions between people lately.
(13:18):
Where I feel like people are being a little more open to, and maybe me self-reflective, Idon't know, but I feel like in general though, like when we hear people's interactions and
discussions.
you know, sitting over some beers with people.
Like, I feel like people are being more open and thinking about, what's the other sidehere, somewhat.
(13:42):
I don't know, small things.
But.
So you're saying people were more dug in, heels planted, and now people are kind of comingup for air and considering discovering?
down and realize the ground's not as, they're on sand rather than granite.
you know, things are changing around them.
(14:03):
And I think people are more open to coalescing to different viewpoints than they have beenin a
Does this tie into that phenomenon of the silent Trump supporter, the one that you wouldhave dinner with and they would agree with you and your positions and whatever, because
you're center left or whatever.
But then when it came time to sit in front of the ballot, they'd vote Trump, but they'dnever really tell anyone outside of maybe their kin.
(14:28):
Because that's why 2016 was such a complete shock.
And I think this election for many people was a complete shock.
Really?
Yeah.
It's not showing up in polls.
think a lot of people who are, let's say urbanites, find themselves not connected to thefabric that is real.
Yeah, I think.
(14:50):
and displayed via this election rather than, yeah.
I don't know, I don't know what to think.
You're asking me what 300 million people, well not 300 million, but 100 million peoplethat voted think, right?
I don't know, guess, well that's what I'm sitting here saying, I making opinions on thisshit, so I guess I gotta make a comment.
Yeah.
(15:11):
Yeah, I don't know, just think it's, I don't know I see it, again, because I work in anindustry where there, I work with people that I know kind of lean one way the other a lot
of times, and I just.
In the way that they are talking about some of these things like tariffs and how tradeworks, there's more...
(15:32):
questions than statements.
the past where I feel like, where in the past I feel like there were more statements thanquestions.
Can you give us some of those statements that were sort of of the hive mind around yourlived experience?
okay, so yeah, like, if this party is in power, it's good for oil, you know, that'll begood for oil and gas jobs.
Like, yeah.
(15:52):
if you elected Democrats, good for unions, but this election was different.
Whereas now it's people are saying, well, they're saying these tariffs will help us, butwill that really help us?
And it's like, well, I don't know, will it?
And that's where some of my head space has been at is the, if we're gonna have this tariffregime, which what does that mean for...
(16:20):
our ongoing fiscal policy and the way our economy functions, our trade functions, and theway that...
I
I mean, all the machinations of the economy can be affected by this.
Your lifestyle could be affected by this.
and even the way even the way our well, I guess it's part of the economy, the way our wayour job flow functions.
(16:45):
Job flow, like the way types of jobs that have been moving to different parts of thesector.
And we've talked about this in the past, where, you know, manufacturing is never gonnacome back like it was here, but it's gonna it could come back looking differently.
And I think there's with
some of the potential tariff regimes, is more likelihood of some of that coming back inways, but again though, we're gonna continue to see large companies push towards best cost
(17:15):
countries.
That's the...
That is the mantra.
Yeah, So it'll be interesting to see the rebalancing of the way trade flows happen hereover the next four years.
Because I do think we're gonna see some level of tariffs.
I don't think it'll be exactly what was said in the campaign, because that would be weirdif something actually happened the way it was said.
(17:39):
Yes.
But I'm sure there'll be some machination of it.
right?
There were grownups in the room last time and this time it seems like, well, I don't evenlike saying that because like I'm trying to stop being judgmental and trying to accept
what these next four years will be.
It wasn't the next.
about some of the grownups in the room from last time.
(17:59):
So I shared with you this piece that I found on Twitter by Stephen Miran who was in theTreasury Department at the end of Trump's term as one of the advisors there.
And he put out a piece talking about tariff policy.
And it was really well researched.
And...
You know, my view pretty much all along is that, if we go ahead and put in a flat 10 %tariff everywhere, you know, we'd immediately see inflation, which I think, you know, we
(18:26):
would.
I think that's undoubtedly that we would.
But what...
This dude, Dr.
Stephen Miran does much better job of is actually giving you a thoughtful argument andguide on how you could actually implement tariffs in a meaningful way that don't blow up
the economy and ultimately would be a benefit for us.
(18:47):
And that's where I come around and surprise like, okay, actually, if, you know, this guycame out and like said, you know, this is Trump's plan.
I'd like, well, that's actually interesting.
I don't necessarily think it's quite perfect.
Yeah, but you have my interest at least at this point.
So the premise behind it is that they look back at data from its previous term when webasically raised tariffs on China on net about 18%, about 18 % on net.
(19:19):
And then they looked at the actual inflation that happened during that time that would berelated to that and to look also at
why the inflation didn't change in the same way we might have anticipated.
really that of that 18%, only about 4 % ended up coming out in goods inflation.
(19:41):
Because what happened is you got a difference in the rebalancing of the exchange ratebetween the US dollar and the renminbi.
Pretty sure I pronounced that wrong, I always do.
Yes.
whatever.
that there was a currency revaluation that also happened at the same time related to that.
(20:03):
Yes, well the dollar got weaker.
Okay.
Anyway, so you get an offset effect from that that occurs.
So the argument is that you end up on, again, they cite some interesting studies.
I haven't gone into all of them.
I went into one actually.
I was kind of curious about some of the math.
And it seems like it stands up to some rigor, at least.
(20:26):
the so you end up basically not seeing you know any inflation during that time periodrelated to that and what you end up finding as well as as you dig in further.
that this happens because the United States dollar is kind of the default reserve currencyfor the world.
So we end up having this extra strong dollar because we are the reserve currency, meaningthat if India and South Korea want to trade, that trade is happening in U.S.
(20:58):
dollar denominated.
Yeah, it's U.S.
dollar denominated.
So people outside of the U.S.
are buying U.S.
dollars
just to trade back and forth with, which causes a strengthening of the USD.
And then you also have foreign investors coming in buying US stocks because they performso well.
And that helps drive up, go ahead.
(21:18):
And that helps strengthen the USD.
So what you end up having is this ultra strong United States dollar that basically thenhelps expedite the
flight of manufacturing, because it's so much cheaper to make everywhere else now.
And we can buy so many because our dollar is so inflated.
(21:42):
so what they're trying to, know, what, yeah, what Miran's arguing here is the tariffs, youwould bring them in, in incremental, you know, 1%, 2 % at a time, and set them at
different levels based upon basically our position with that trade partner
So like China might get like a 60 % tariff because of their feelings towards China.
(22:08):
Whereas a European country would get a lower level.
But also like there are certain European countries where, for example, they put a superheavy tariff on any goods the US imports over there.
So you're at this point just trying to kind of balance out in some of these levelswhere...
you already have in-balance trade tariffs going on where it doesn't make any sense forEuropeans to import a US auto because of certain tariffs.
(22:36):
And then also you can use it as a geopolitical tool to say, okay, you're working with uson complying with IP policy and okay, we're gonna respect each other's intellectual
property policies,
then we'll give you a smaller tariff and use it as a negotiating chip and trying to helpfacilitate better trade And that's a very cogent argument overall.
(23:01):
There were some things I marked it up red and blue and yellow, depending upon my feelingsabout each statement.
But I definitely was, I'm curious to hear more and to see
to do more research in it.
Because I think there may be a future where some, I mean, we're going to see it.
(23:21):
So if it's done and done well, can it be done where it would lead to a golden age?
Circling back.
I see.
Okay.
and maybe is what I'm saying.
I don't, it's possible.
Yeah, so what constant what pieces of painting with a broad brush, what pieces of changewould need to happen, you don't have to say what outcome necessarily, but like what areas
(23:51):
of our society governance, whatever, would have to see significant change in order toachieve a golden age in your year, like, you know, you're
What you're talking about here is just tariff regimes and trade, right?
But that's just one, I mean...
but what I'm talking about is then like, what would this do for the US, right?
it would help make the US dollar a little more balanced versus the rest of world, by theway, so strong, which would cause our travel to be more expensive.
(24:16):
That'd be a drawback, right?
But I think in general, we're gonna see the rest of the world's currencies, like we'vetalked about before, have more strength versus the USD as we revert to some means in the
long term anyway.
You would have the potential of, if the USD is more balanced and there's these tariffs onforeign goods, having more domestic production growth in certain industries, which could,
(24:44):
you
lead to new jobs, new schools, new trade schools, et cetera, that would lead to kind of aneconomic little boon of maybe new home building and things of that nature.
But I don't know, yeah.
But yeah, as we deport 15, fucking god damn it.
(25:05):
And we're gonna have to make this an.
and houses to two million baseline.
I don't know.
Yeah.
I don't know, I'm just trying to think.
and I can tell you there's, speaking, one kind of person who's actually slinging hammers.
Yeah.
And, you know, the rhetoric would make you think that they're all getting deported.
(25:27):
But again, rhetoric pre, you know, pre, pre-election is very different from actual, youknow, outcomes once office is held.
So we'll see on that one.
Anyway, like, you know, it's every single time I tried to spend a little time thinking,not necessarily positively, but constructively.
Mm.
something and find something that I'm like, okay, it's not that I'm spinning thispositively, it's just that there are potential positive outcomes from this broad set of
(25:57):
rhetoric.
It's not even policy, right?
I don't think there's, know, hardly any policies have been spoken about.
It's mostly just rhetoric.
Yeah, and then, but then, you know, I immediately, my mind just immediately bounces tosome, you know,
one of the more intense pieces of rhetoric that has come out.
(26:18):
so the question I asked earlier, like I think about, we've been talking about global tradeand how that can change certain pieces of fabric of.
what does it look like more for people in the U S I guess is really what the question is,right?
Like from like a up close.
Well, I guess where I'm going is like, I mean, we can take global trade and then, youknow, topic tree that out into the effects amongst society.
(26:45):
But what I'm asking is like, instead of diving into the, the, the broader branches of thattree, what other trees are there?
And part of me wonders like, so this dissolution of or mistrust of or massive changes tolarge government institutions that has been at least talked about, again, going back to
(27:07):
rhetoric, if the you know, it's like, how do if those things are implemented?
Does it change society?
Like, will these changes change, adjust like our broad society?
the voters, if you will, relationship with government, because at this point, I'd say thatrelationship is at least 53 % broken, or is that, you know?
(27:33):
And if these changes are implemented, does that number go to 42 or something?
So that's like another tree where I feel like, know, just a multitude of branches to godown in terms of...
what ifs and how does that play out and then what are the intended and unintendedconsequences of such an action.
(27:54):
So there's two trees.
I'm just looking for the trees at this point, right?
Yeah, talking about the institutions is interesting, right?
okay, talking about like nuking the Department of Education, for example, like looking atthat, like what does that do?
(28:14):
know, because the DOE itself doesn't necessarily have that many employees, but theydistribute a lot of federal funds.
So when they're talking about nuking these federal departments, that's one thing, becausethat's, you know, there's employees there, but then there's also those funds being
(28:34):
distributed is, so are they gonna say that they're basically gonna stranglehold municipalgovernments?
Is that the second order effect in that in five years you can't have trash service orsomething?
Like.
because it's about where the money's going, right?
And what it's doing when it gets there.
Yeah, and what kind of requirements are in place to receive such money.
(28:59):
Yeah, and I think a lot of the bureaucracy there is to set probably sometimes overlyonerous or weird or standards, sometimes absolutely necessary, like many times absolutely,
most times absolutely necessary, I'd probably argue.
You probably have more, I don't know, don't wanna say a broad statement like that.
But yeah, so all right, so you wanna nuke these departments.
(29:20):
What do you mean by that?
Is it there's too many people working in those departments, you wanna get rid of them, andthen?
So the money that Congress is in allocated still has to go out, right?
You can't just not, not do that.
So.
Yeah, unless Mitch McConnell is like 100 % on board and is just like complicit with everysingle change and adjusts the budget commensurally.
(29:46):
That's true.
Yeah, I guess I'd have to, I don't know enough about the budget process and yeah.
Yeah.
That's, that's, that's true.
Yeah.
So how much change can they affect?
And, and, but again, though, like even within those chambers, like how, how a long partylines every vote going to go.
(30:13):
I think even in the last couple of presidents, we've seen that there's, there's defectors,right?
You know, there's defectors on both sides.
So just because it's the count, is that what it is on the cover?
It doesn't mean that.
there aren't some smart people in there that, will, no, this is dumb.
This is dumb, dude.
I'm gonna just get rid of all this public service in my districts.
(30:36):
No, I'm not gonna do that.
I mean, you know, there's been analogies made in the past of like, some of these thingsare kind of.
like an addictive drug in a way, right?
Some of the certain public services are because once you have them, the public will nevergive them up.
I'd argue that maybe what we should do is look at how could we better run those publicservices rather than getting rid of them.
(31:00):
I do think that there's, well, I don't know.
part of it that makes me feel like it's not the beginning of the golden age because we'retalking about destruction and rebuilding, right?
And at that point, I feel like we've just hit peak.
The momentum has shifted to a different team and the...
(31:21):
to burn it down from which to back from the ashes.
Everything has not been burnt down sufficiently.
No, even the burning down hasn't really even begun.
Yeah, yeah, like in coming back to The Fourth Turning know, a couple of things they saidthat they were really confident about being staples would be really having to retool all
(31:44):
of our entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicaid because of the way they werebuilt and not being long-term stable, you know, and not being.
And if you look at the CBO's site, cbo.org, encourage you to go, or .gov, encourage you togo check it out.
Yeah, they have some warnings on there about how we're gonna have problems in the 2030s,you know?
(32:06):
It's, the current model is going to have issues if we don't make some changes.
So.
Yeah.
Which I had a, in our, in our little shared notes, like since, since we're here, I'llthrow it out there.
I don't know if we'll be prepared to talk much about it, but one of the ideas is like aninverse social security because right now the way it's all structured is, and speaking
(32:31):
from my lived experience is you're taking money from people who are, young trying toestablish themselves.
trying to buy a house, trying to have kids, maybe because they now perceive that theycan't even afford them because they also can't afford a house and taking money from that
(32:51):
cohort of people and then giving it to old people.
Yep.
How do we invert that?
How do we invert that, right?
Because now you have, mean, you know how we flip it around means testing, right?
Like nobody likes those words.
Nobody likes those words, but that's how you flip it around.
you.
(33:12):
You're saying that the people who have means have to give more.
Yeah, you're on the back end of your 65 and sitting on $5 million and...
I mean, yeah, you can't, know, I guess there's no transfer, right?
They're just sitting on it.
There's not an attacksable event occurring.
They're drawing some stuff down, but also, like, why are we distributing at least socialsecurity to certain people in those situations?
(33:37):
I don't, yeah.
the money.
They should have paid in their entire lives and then they did really well with their life.
Good for them.
But you don't get the $600 a month or whatever it is from Social Security.
Yeah.
and like, was talking about this, somebody at work through the day and like both of usare, have always been of the mindset and opinion that we were always told growing up not
(33:59):
to expect social security to make it.
So don't count on it.
So I like, honestly, I'm like, people say, what are you going to get from social?
I'm like, I don't know.
I don't care.
I'm not planning on it being there, frankly.
yeah, yeah.
I looked at, I looked at it was not too long ago, just
Yeah, looked at it like not long ago to see what the estimate was.
(34:20):
like, actually, if it all holds out, I'm going to be okay getting some pretty decent fundsfrom it.
But I don't believe it's going to.
earmarked for your parents.
Yeah, so, know, then I suspect there's a lot of our parents' generation that are, youknow, by and large, able to support a good amount of their basic living costs off of
(34:43):
Social Security and then aren't drawing down on their retirement.
So it's just, you know, then those funds are sitting there tied up, which I don't know,and is that okay?
Maybe that's okay, because then they could have a life where they need $500,000 for
fucking medical event you know that happens so
That is a good point.
End of life is extremely expensive.
Yeah.
Yeah, like it's, I feel like.
(35:06):
I also look at it like, so that money just sits there and then it's gonna get bequeathedto the kids, but it's gonna get given to the kids when they're 55.
You better have made it through at that point, Versus getting gifted that money at 35 whenyou're trying to make your life.
Like the most expensive years, 35, 45, something like that, especially if you have kids.
(35:30):
I'd especially if you're kids, I'd that.
a bunch of money, I know exactly how it would be allocated and it wouldn't be personalluxuries.
It would be, you know, flushing out my kids ability to go to college.
It would be paying for a little bit more, you know, school time.
Cause you know, we don't do, I don't think we do enough just from a budget standpoint andjust little things like that.
(35:51):
It would all be going to my kids.
Yeah, that's interesting.
I'm a, I'm saying that from a place of luxury because I bought a house and all, yada,yada, yada, right?
Other people would be like, I just want a roof.
luxury, and there's other people who are below you that that yeah, just want to dang, dangroof, right?
Or I, you know, you say that I wish you could see out my window here.
(36:17):
Because I'm literally looking across the street at a house that is, I know, a mother and ateenage son live there.
And there's just a giant hole in their roof.
Like I see it every day.
Because I live in a weird part of Houston.
where we are up and coming, but there's a mix.
yeah, it grounds me to be like, yeah, there are like.
(36:40):
there are people who would need this money, like who would take that money to like fixtheir roof, right?
Just so they didn't have water coming in, I'm sure.
And why, know, and yet worse, we're giving it to people who by and large at some point,you know, have funds that they could be, you know, helping.
I don't know, but like they also paid into it their entire lives.
Yeah, I guess when I know I'm gonna have to pay for it for my entire life and then get $0out of it.
(37:05):
It's just taking from me.
You know, it's like, this is this is the Adam Grant.
This is the taker or not taker.
This is the matcher in me, right?
It's like, well, that's completely unfair.
Let's make it unfair for everyone then I'm gonna match.
Right?
Or, or, or you go full Trumpian and be like, abolish it just just magically wave a wandand it's all gone right now and everyone has to readjust.
(37:29):
Yeah, like I don't want to, I don't want to get, I don't want to get rid of it.
And I don't, I just think we need to like retool it a bit because like I'm, like I said, Ihaven't, I don't even mind paying into it.
Like with the mindset of I'm not going to get anything out of it.
I don't really, it doesn't bother me that much because I know it helps other people.
(37:50):
I just worry like, are we maybe helping some people that don't need it?
And could we maybe be directing that in a more meaningful way?
I think that's where my rub is.
Right.
So the discussion usually centers around like, we have to raise taxes in order to fix thisproblem.
And it's like, how about we keep everything the same, but readjust the flows is kind ofwhere you're going.
(38:10):
Yeah.
That's what I would want to do.
Yeah.
But then, then, then I worry that people will be like, but you're just talking about likeObama level death panels or some shit, you know?
It's like, well, yeah, I don't, it's impossible to make 370 million people happy, I guess.
Well, yeah.
(38:30):
mean, lead a team and you'll be like, I can't make eight people happy.
Hahaha
Yeah, that's the truth.
true.
There's just going to be imbalances and there's no way getting around the fact that it'shard.
But here we are in either the approach to an ekpyrosis or, you know, it's like now's thetime.
I feel like, you know, everyone's attitude is let's throw grenades into the room.
(38:54):
So let's do it, I guess.
that's what I feel like.
think.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, right.
Let's let's.
it.
I'm like, you my stat, my, you know, again, from a place of privilege, my status quo islike not bad.
So I wasn't really into the whole let's throw flash bangs and grenades into the room.
But if the majority of people are all on board and we're good, it's clearly the people inthe room are going to start then by all means let's like get this process done as fast as
(39:21):
possible.
So the pain is sharp and short and see what's on the other side and start rebuilding.
That's kind of.
where I've landed over these past two weeks.
in a way, theoretically, at least, institutions all holding, you know, it's one term,right?
1461 days of this, and then, like, depending upon how things are going, we're gonna, in,1461 days, come back together, make a decision of, we keep going down this, like, maybe
(39:48):
things could get rocky, like, okay, well, here's a chance to pivot and say, okay, well,maybe we do see something, and we want to kind of follow that, like,
Who knows what we're gonna be thinking?
Yeah.
Who knows?
Who knows what we're going to be thinking and who knows what kind of candidates we'regoing to have.
Yeah, so you know, I'm for the chaos, I'm for chaotic neutral is my alignment I thinkright now.
(40:13):
If you were to, yeah, if you were put me in the D &D table alignment, I would be chaoticneutral thoroughly right now.
That's just where my head space is.
Yeah.
I think there's I think there's pro you know, going back to this like silent majority orwhatever you want to call it.
I think there's more of more people in that position than had ever let on.
(40:34):
Mm-hmm.
Yeah, I think by and large people on both sides of this political debate, at least, Idon't like that we're just speaking about it in terms of politics here, people feel like
things aren't working quite right everywhere in general.
And I think people by and large are in the mood for a little bit of chaos and then seeingand resetting some things.
(40:57):
And sometimes you have to, I don't know, tear it down before you can rebuild it.
All right.
Well, I'll ask this question.
In the past two weeks, more Ennui or Joi de Vivre?
Hmm last two weeks.
(41:18):
That's a good question more only a more joi de vivre
Honestly, well, for me, it was more as joi de vivre cause I was doing a little traveling,right.
Getting out and seeing, since people hadn't seen it in a while.
And, and I don't know.
Like I felt like I was more on the urge of tears of joy driving up the California coast.
(41:40):
did a long time.
Right.
yes.
Yeah.
Like, the, the, the, the look of shock on my face was I was in Santa Barbara.
Seeing the sun rise over the ocean because I didn't realize it was on a Southern point.
I'm sure there was people would have like, what is wrong with you?
(42:02):
My brain was melting.
That's good.
think this is the whole touch grass thing, right?
Like if you haven't been awed by earth in a while, you need to go find a way to do thatbecause there are a multitude of ways to do it.
And it brings some sort of beautiful connection back to this reality and lived experiencethat we have.
(42:25):
It's either people in relationships or just sheer awe at earth.
I think if I were on the spectrum of percentage, I'd be somewhere like 2 thirds to the.
Yeah, I'm with you on that.
There was similar vibes here of like getting to travel and actually meet in real life awhole bunch of people I've worked with for more than a year.
(42:49):
and yeah, I mean, and then, and then, you know, I've constructed my life so that I have, Ihave, and spend a lot of time with my kids.
see them every single day, but then they left for Hawaii and I left for the Philippinesand you know,
Not that I want to spend time away from my family, but I do think it's good for the soulevery so often.
(43:13):
Not so much as recovery, but to just deeply appreciate and miss your kin.
think that makes sense because you get overwhelmed early, you know, you lose sight of itif you're always in that, you can't see the forest for the trees, right?
So just...
get stuck in the mud rather than realize like, it's 99 % joy.
(43:35):
It's just that like, sometimes that 1 % is really loud.
And always at the same time every day and just, it's yeah.
that's, yeah, that's, that's a good point.
I know for Jamie and I, we get that a lot because it's just two of us and, you know, shetravels for work quite a bit.
(43:57):
Is it, does she'll ever get any of those moments or days?
You know what you got to do for mother's day.
mode over here, I think.
Yeah.
Well, I think that's, I think, I think that's what young, having young kids kind of likein a lot of ways, right?
It is a, especially if you don't live around, near your grandparents, it's prettyclaustrophobic.
(44:21):
Yeah, yeah, I'm going out to meet a coworker for lunch that, he's from Romania, and hiswife and are from Romania, and they have a two or three year old now.
His mother's visiting for the first time, so it's like their first time having ababysitter, so we're going out to have lunch away from a child, which they're very excited
about.
Good.
(44:42):
Yeah.
Yeah.
As a parent, you need those times and they don't come often.
Well, I mean, I have friends that have plenty of independent time and it's all paid for,or they live, you know, in town with grandparents and it's like, every Tuesday and
Thursday, the kids head over there, you know, beautiful things.
and, you know, many ways I wish I had them, but, we live differently.
(45:07):
So yeah, I, I'm
I feel strongly for your Romanian friend.
Mm-hmm, absolutely.
I'm a...
I can't imagine how y'all do it.
I'll just say that.
Yeah, it looks so hard to have to be just constantly on.
(45:30):
It seems, I don't know.
Constantly on.
Yeah.
I remember someone asked me like, what was your biggest fear or something like that?
I think a lot of people probably expect an answer to something like, what kind of fatherwill I be?
Or what kind of parents will I be?
Or something like that, like a sort of existential thing.
(45:50):
Which for many people that probably is it, right?
Especially for those of us who haven't spent a ton of time around kids.
But mine, what came out of my mouth, unfiltered, was just like, it was right there and itcame out was there's no off button.
Almost everything in life you can sort of like put away for a little bit or escape fromfor a little bit, right?
(46:13):
And I was like, you know, once, once, once a kid arrives, it's, it's here forever,forever.
considered cruel to put your dog in a crate for six hours a day.
Right.
Child, very cruel.
Very cruel.
Very.
(46:33):
If you get a good sleeper, but then at that point you ought to be sleeping as well.
And I mean, by the time you finish your chores and cleaning up after them and then getsleep yourself, it's like, wow, they're up again.
Yeah.
So.
(46:54):
I guess, you know, if we were in a golden age of approaching a golden age, how does, howdoes, does, does the services we provide or the things we provide for parents, how does
that differ?
guess that's one thing that we kind of touched on, but we got to a satisfying conclusionon, because I feel like you guys are the ones that.
(47:15):
In the gun, they're not the ones, but of, you know, parents in the country need the mostsupport.
in a lot of ways because they're doing a very important job of bringing up the nextgeneration and.
And then you guys get a lot of support to you get some tax credits that don't.
(47:36):
But probably not none, but but but but those aren't the I was saying that, but I mean.
Yeah, it doesn't begin to cover anything.
Yeah, I just, have a smaller bill to pay every year or four times a year.
Yeah, exactly.
Yeah, it's still a bill.
(47:59):
Yeah, I don't know.
yeah, those are actually that would probably be an interesting place to try to dive intolike what incentives there are and like what because you listen to Peter Zeihan and
redistribution of wealth or something and like giving funds directly to young parents oryounger parents.
I don't know that that's the answer.
(48:21):
No.
No, but then there's always a scary portion of like, well, we'll create this biggovernment program that provides this service.
then half of everyone is like, it's actually not that great.
And then they choose to go private or something.
I don't know.
There's a lot to think about there in terms of how to help foster the next generation.
(48:44):
That's the job.
It isn't just to make parents' lives easier or better or whatever.
It's like, there are gonna be kids who are lost.
because their parents aren't around or not available or working too hard to pay for thatroof that has a hole in it.
There's a lot of stuff like that, right?
So like where can you catch the...
(49:11):
Where can you catch the most amount of kids and elevate them to a place where they have abetter launch pad?
I think that's focusing on your lowest socioeconomic bracket, right, in a way, is where weneed to make sure that there's the most support networks in place for.
But once you get to a certain level, there's also a lot of, it's just staying out of theway and letting, when you have a base level covered, it's staying out of the way and not
(49:40):
trying to, like you say, like if you.
Like if I had a kid where we are, I don't know that I would be sending him to publicschools, you know, but then why am I paying for public schools?
to like move to a walkable area of town where there are cool coffee shops and a 2000square foot house cost $3 million.
(50:01):
But the school's a one.
Wow.
the lifestyle that they wanted, right?
But now they're gonna have to pay for private school, I assume, considering they canafford that kind of house, right?
So then this disparity in that neighborhood is just so intense.
And I'm not, you know, I have trouble understanding whether that fabric is a good fabricbecause some of the disadvantaged kids have...
(50:28):
Access to these families or is there just no access to those families?
They don't mix whatsoever right and I think the mixing is the most important part and thenI look at my very vanilla neighborhood of like everyone's kind of ish the same and but the
school is great and
I think about the, that, that sort of fabric a lot.
(50:50):
one of my, one of my, when was this college, my one of my ideas was like, we should takeurban kids.
This should be like pre-college or I frame it differently post high school.
meaning you don't have to be college bound to be required to do this.
and much like Germany has this, like, you have to either serve in the military or there'sthis like year of volunteer ship that you have to do something similar here where it's
(51:14):
like, you can choose the military if you want.
and get after that GI bill, whatever.
Or the other requirement, like if you don't choose that, then the requirement is thatyou've got to do this volunteer thing.
And it's basically gonna like, it would be so complicated to execute, but I like itspiritually, if you will, is take these urban kids, something, and you take these urban
(51:36):
kids and they get sent to Oklahoma and Oklahoma kids get sent to San Francisco.
like you deliberately,
put the egg beater within society so that society has mixed and people understand eachother.
think one of the speaking of, I just lost it.
What's the word for the, the fourth turning crisis?
(51:58):
ekpyrosis world war two.
Like you had people who were, I don't know, business owners and whatever fighting rightalongside some super disadvantaged kid from Brooklyn and like,
That mix, I think, was one ingredient in creating a generation that better understood eachother.
(52:28):
That's an interesting point.
yes, I think there's probably a level of truth to that.
How much is...
Yeah.
And I'm like, you don't spend enough time with different people if you're shocked by this.
yeah, that's what I feel like too.
(52:49):
It's like, how're you shocked.
I don't understand it, but.
But so like how
It's different because it's not about service.
It's about being a taker in a different way.
like, you know, college is in some ways kind of like that, right?
(53:09):
You get the.
supposed to be but does it flow that way or has it like it was once and now it isn'tquestion mark
don't know.
It probably depends which schools you're going to and what for.
(53:30):
And whether you're in a 50 50 mix or whether you're in a 2 % 98 % right?
Like I remember reading a story written by a guy who had gotten accepted to Yale, buthe's, you know, African American broken family, something or other like that.
Right.
Like, and he, I think I don't remember the whole story, whether he dropped out or whetherit was just a real slog because he wasn't like anyone and he was surrounded by, which is a
(53:57):
shame.
Right.
This is like, in many ways,
a potential golden ticket, changed the trajectory of himself and his entire bloodline, ifyou will.
And it was hard for him to understanding.
No doubt, because you...
(54:18):
But if that ratio was different, could he have, or would they have isolated themselvesfirst?
I don't know, man.
that's good question.
That's a hell of a good question.
We'll never know the answers to these questions in our lifetime.
(54:38):
And there's probably no answers to them either.
That's the thing about them.
Well, it's like once you introduce the change to try to address this problem, then thereare a litany of follow on changes that.
The knock-on effects get out of control and that's where I was saying earlier, sometimesit's best to just stay out of the way because over enough time things will continue to mix
(55:04):
and change and evolve as...
You you introduced me to the book Factfulness and I read that recently on the travel andyou know, one thing that Dr.
Rosling that wrote it pointed out...
Is that things used to, know, continually to progress and get better, which doesn't meanthat we don't have to be in, insensitive to the people that are where things are still
(55:30):
bad, right?
We can still have empathy and sympathy for them, but we also need to look and sometimesstep back and see the forest through the trees and say, you know, the number of people
that are in extreme poverty has dropped to record lows.
And there are more, you know, people having access to
(55:51):
birth control or to vaccinations, like 80 % of the kids in the world today are vaccinatedand at least in some level, you know, that's a large percentage.
That, you know, most of that is from having access to like the 20 % that aren't mostlyjust not having access to it's not because they have a small few basis points or sitting
(56:13):
up here being anti-vaxxers somewhere in the Pacific Northwest or wherever.
But
But in general, you know, what life.
in your mind, it's no wonder I had trouble living up there.
It's that the, you know, that things are, that things are, are continuing better.
(56:36):
And like, we, if maybe we don't need to come in here and try to put, you know, put a mixerin, the pot or into the bowl and mix everything up.
Maybe things are going to, there's enough entropy going on on its own.
If we just let, let things happen.
Yeah.
And it will, it will eventually it's gonna, we might not like the time it takes and we seepain and suffering and wish we could solve it right here and now.
(57:06):
And there's things you can do, I think, in your local areas to help mitigate it.
could go volunteer at the food bank, you can go and give money to charitable organizationsif you don't wanna give time.
But you can do any number of things to.
help mitigate those things, but you're not going to be able to change it in a meaningfulway.
(57:26):
yet we, think we constantly strive for wanting to have some good guy that comes in andsays, it's right.
You know, now it's just, now we got it right and everything's good.
And it's, but yeah, exactly.
or it could be for a brief period of time, but.
(57:47):
For like one day maybe.
Yeah.
Well, then it makes me ask like a follow on question of like, even if you were to design asystem that smoothed out the bumps, right?
Like you created the federal reserve and it controls, you know, interest rates with atwo-faced mission or whatever.
(58:08):
And you really have succeeded in smoothening out some of the troughs and peaks.
But without the troughs and peaks, the human psyche gets a cost to accustomed to the goodtime.
And so this goes to our like question episodes ago of like have these, turnings.
(58:33):
Expanded in time, right?
Because we've implemented systems that have smooth things out, but human nature isunstoppable.
And even though you're living in the best time and human history,
there's still going to be a large enough group of people that say, this sucks, grenades inthe room, please.
(58:54):
Yeah, I think that's always a possibility.
And I think, and I think we might be living it, but I don't know.
Again, this is where we were talking about a book that was written in 1997, I think whenit was published, right?
And we're still sitting here talking about this damn thing, you know, 27 years later.
And it was very much so many things that said that have come to fruition where I just wantto continue to see how it plays out.
(59:20):
Cause it's, it's an interesting.
Such an interesting cyclical concept.
Totally.
Well, let's leave it there, Sean.
Yeah, that's a perfect spot right at the end.
Boom!
Like and subscribe.
Thanks for following us
Yeah, so you know, I'm for the chaos, I'm for chaotic neutral is my alignment I thinkright now.
If you were to, yeah, if you were put me in the D &D table alignment, I would be chaoticneutral thoroughly right now.
(01:03):
Hey, Sean.
Hey, Dan, how are you doing this fine sunny morning?
Well, sunny here at least.
cloudy here, but we've had some decent weather.
It's trying so hard to reach 60 degrees every day.
I went on a walk yesterday while I was on a call and I got, you know, I was dressed forcooler temperatures, but I got legitimately hot in the sunshine while walking.
(01:27):
So I'll take it even though there's still a bunch of snow on the ground from when I was inthe Philippines.
Dang.
You got snow on the ground and you still were sweating.
We got sun here.
I went out and got on the bike the other day and I was still kind of chilly because it'skind of cool and humid here.
Went right through everything.
(01:47):
yeah, that's true.
You got a little more wind speed.
Yeah, definitely.
You gotta dress differently.
me on my walk yesterday and they were all bundled up, gloves and the whole bit, eventhough I was like trying to shed clothes.
It's a different setup.
So yeah, you mentioned getting back from the Philippines.
(02:08):
Anything you'd like to share about your visit and time over in Cebu?
Yeah, exactly.
It was in Cebu and I think that's sort of like the Philippines second city, if you will.
And it's great.
I mean, as soon as I landed, was like, check Southeast Asia.
It feels like it.
(02:29):
But in the Philippines, English is just so, so easy to use.
just sort of like navigating the fabric of everything was just easy.
want to...
call it right?
Like sometimes you land in certain, I've had the privilege of doing lots of travel andsometimes you land and it's just hard to navigate.
(02:52):
and the Philippines was not that way at all.
I hung out with my team.
had, basically four full days to, to be together.
The first two were sort of more work oriented.
did some one-on-ones, and got through some topics.
was nice to be able to just like sit next to someone laptop to laptop and
jam on something because we're often working in separate time zones.
(03:15):
Creating overlap is difficult at times.
yeah, so that was really nice.
And then the second two days we did just more exploring.
They got me out in the mountains.
We did a big hike and we got to see some more touristy things and stuff like that.
So it was was a really great trip.
And I got home 24 hours later than I was supposed to because of a canceled flight.
(03:37):
And the journey home was much longer than it should have been.
But everything else, I think, went to plan, including going to Narita, Tokyo, which wasgreat, even though I didn't leave the airport.
The Ministry of Tourism had a talk with me while I was waiting at my gate, and I got somefancy Japanese Kit Kats, and I got to say arigatou gozaimasu, and it was fun.
(04:03):
Can't wait to go back to Tokyo.
Yeah, would love to go to Tokyo someday.
I think that would be a fun place to visit.
Felt that way for a long time.
Yeah, let's do it someday.
That would be fun.
I would be totally game.
Springtime?
When the cherry blossoms, is that when it happens there?
Yeah.
really nice.
(04:24):
However, I will be puffy faced, red-eyed and carrying a box of Kleenexes everywhere we go.
That's how it worked last time.
And I would fully expect it to work that time that way again.
Well, you know, the sacrifices you make for seeing something special, right?
you know, sometimes exactly things we do, the things we do to amuse ourselves and make usfeel like there's.
(04:53):
Yeah.
So I spent, yeah, a lot shorter flight, a lot shorter flight.
I'm going to say, I flew back from San Francisco, which is slightly longer, but stillquite short.
Compared to what you were doing.
yeah, I got to go out visit.
yeah, I did my first time flying through SFO is a fine airport.
(05:14):
I thought they seemed like they were doing a pretty good job.
no, yeah, I was out in Long beach, visiting my third rubber mixer of the year.
got to sink my teeth into some, some audit skills that I hadn't used in a little while.
That was kind of fun.
I don't know, people will tell you anything.
If you just get them in the right head space, people will just tell you anything.
(05:36):
And by this, mean they are lying or they are telling you the bad
you stuff.
like, I'm like, if you, if they tell me the truth here, I'm going to be like, you probablyshouldn't tell me the truth here, but they, then they tell me the truth.
Or like, it's like, you're being very like, which I appreciate.
were, we were there, like trying to find the root of a problem.
And there things that I would just be like, man, if I was like their plant manager, I'd belike, eh, maybe we shouldn't have said that.
(05:59):
But, people will just, you know, because people want to be good hearted and open andhonest.
And it's nice to see.
And then it's not like we're gonna roast them or anything.
It's helped us like, okay, this is the problem now we know what to do.
So.
a B-School professor who was, what did he teach?
Corporate finance or something like that.
And one of his things was, you know, I come into a negotiation and I would rather take thewhole binder, the whole envelope and like lay it out on the table and say, this is it.
(06:30):
This is the information and I'm not trying to hide it from you.
Let's work with the truth.
Are you willing to do that too?
And from there you get better outcomes.
Yeah, I agree.
think, yeah, being as transparent as possible.
And that's kind of how we approached our situation as well.
(06:52):
we were looking, there looking for some stuff that we thought might not be quite right.
you know, we right at the beginning said, hey, this is why we're here.
So we're not, if we're tough or something, this is why.
And everybody was very, you know, understanding and, yeah, exactly.
Yeah.
This partnership, partnership, maybe not a, not a one way flow of value.
(07:14):
anyway.
Yeah.
So then I got to go and I had never had the, opportunity to do this, but I took the.
I shouldn't say I had had many opportunities, but I'd never actually taken any of theopportunities that were presented to me to drive, from Southern California up to, up to
Santa Rosa.
did highway.
Yeah.
Did, did.
(07:35):
one-oh-one most of the way.
And it was absolutely gorgeous.
Just absolutely.
I cannot wait to go do that again and take a little more time with it.
I was going to see somebody up in Northern California, I didn't want to dally too long,yeah, he is doing really great.
My brother Trevor, he's working for the California Parks Department and living in a tinyhouse.
(08:01):
on a new park they're building.
So it's really, he does.
Yeah.
He's renting it out, in the interim.
for
yeah, the park was really cool.
We, got to go walk around and see some of the trails he'd been working on improving andmaking, he's gonna take like another year before they open it up.
And I'm of a surprise because it looked like it was, you know, like you, yeah, it's likeyou're walking here, but I'm sure there's a lot of infrastructure and stuff that I not
(08:29):
considering toilets and electricity and things that you have to get permits for andwhatnot.
and it's California, so it takes a long time.
Yeah, think they're they're permitting and regulation is a little little stricter.
Which, you know.
I want to put a pin in that and say hopefully I'll make a family road trip and we'll allgo out and go hiking in his new park.
(08:52):
Absolutely.
So what's on your mind this week?
Anything come across your radar?
Well, there's a theme that we circle around like what every four episodes.
And it's a book called The Fourth Turning or The Fourth Turning is here.
Neil Howe.
(09:12):
anyway, I've mentioned this podcast in the past made you think by a group of guys.
One of them is Nat Eliason and I follow him on Twitter and I saw a recent tweet of his andI'll read it for all of us to get the to get on the same context here.
He says, fourth turning is over.
It started in around 2008 and ended with this election.
(09:37):
Unlike past fourth turnings, it didn't involve a hot war, rather a civil information warplus COVID.
But now it's over.
Time for reconstruction and the golden age.
His sub tweet on that is, beware though, that if you're having children now, it means yourchildren will be the spoiled generation.
So it's extra important to raise them as best as you possibly can.
So, we can, put the children golden, their children part on the back burner, but the, theposition that The Fourth Turning is over is something that I thought, since seeing this
(10:09):
from him who has read the book and taken it to heart, he's seeing the world in aparticular way.
So I thought it might be good fodder for discussion because I think you and I, we startedoff thinking this is the initiation of The Fourth Turning.
know if I'm gonna say the initiation.
(10:29):
I'm gonna say it's one of the many events that sets off the see what we're lacking in myopinion.
I think it's an it.
So we coming around here talking about the cyclicality of nature and how nature goes inthese cycles of being a crisis causing a reformation causing an awakening.
(10:52):
causing deterioration, causing a crisis, right?
And it's this continuation.
you're arguing that the crisis period is over and that we're into that new golden erawhere these new standards are set, right?
Which I think is...
I think from somebody, you were a very staunch Trump supporter, I could understand thattake, I think.
(11:13):
I think that's based on...
He doesn't strike me as a staunch Trump supporter though.
So his position struck me as, yeah.
find curious about that.
And I've been trying to wrap my head around it.
But like what my mind thinking is, I guess what he's saying here is that the pandemic in away was the ekpyrosis, the crisis event that was the.
(11:34):
And maybe that's right.
Yeah.
It might be right.
I think it ripped huge parts of our fabric apart.
Mm-hmm.
entered doubt was now more acceptable as a mainstream position against wide swaths ofsociety and government, right?
(11:55):
And with that, this is the so the golden age is sort of like the beginning of thereconstruction and change.
Is that right?
would be the premise.
And again, I dropped a word there from the book, ekpyrosis What I mean is like thisculminating large crisis event, like World War II was ekpyrosis of that turning cycle,
(12:16):
right?
And I should be able to list others from before, but for some reason, the Civil War, I'mnot able to pull them all out of my rear end here.
But there's these specific events where the culture reshapes around.
And so...
The stories we tell ourselves.
Exactly.
Very much.
(12:37):
So if we are coming to this new golden age, what does that look like?
mean, what does that...
Well, I'm still leaving on the table that we're still in like a mid cycle phase of thisfourth turning where there's there's because I think there's still things could set stuff
off.
Like part of thing about the golden age, everything's re consolidated around new norm.
(12:58):
And everybody is of that same mindset, but we're still I think, I think we might be seeingbreaking down of some of some of
divides in new ways.
It's small thing, small thing.
I can't point to any big thing, but I just feel like I see small differences ininteractions and questions between people lately.
(13:18):
Where I feel like people are being a little more open to, and maybe me self-reflective, Idon't know, but I feel like in general though, like when we hear people's interactions and
discussions.
you know, sitting over some beers with people.
Like, I feel like people are being more open and thinking about, what's the other sidehere, somewhat.
(13:42):
I don't know, small things.
But.
So you're saying people were more dug in, heels planted, and now people are kind of comingup for air and considering discovering?
down and realize the ground's not as, they're on sand rather than granite.
you know, things are changing around them.
(14:03):
And I think people are more open to coalescing to different viewpoints than they have beenin a
Does this tie into that phenomenon of the silent Trump supporter, the one that you wouldhave dinner with and they would agree with you and your positions and whatever, because
you're center left or whatever.
But then when it came time to sit in front of the ballot, they'd vote Trump, but they'dnever really tell anyone outside of maybe their kin.
(14:28):
Because that's why 2016 was such a complete shock.
And I think this election for many people was a complete shock.
Really?
Yeah.
It's not showing up in polls.
think a lot of people who are, let's say urbanites, find themselves not connected to thefabric that is real.
Yeah, I think.
(14:50):
and displayed via this election rather than, yeah.
I don't know, I don't know what to think.
You're asking me what 300 million people, well not 300 million, but 100 million peoplethat voted think, right?
I don't know, guess, well that's what I'm sitting here saying, I making opinions on thisshit, so I guess I gotta make a comment.
Yeah.
(15:11):
Yeah, I don't know, just think it's, I don't know I see it, again, because I work in anindustry where there, I work with people that I know kind of lean one way the other a lot
of times, and I just.
In the way that they are talking about some of these things like tariffs and how tradeworks, there's more...
(15:32):
questions than statements.
the past where I feel like, where in the past I feel like there were more statements thanquestions.
Can you give us some of those statements that were sort of of the hive mind around yourlived experience?
okay, so yeah, like, if this party is in power, it's good for oil, you know, that'll begood for oil and gas jobs.
Like, yeah.
(15:52):
if you elected Democrats, good for unions, but this election was different.
Whereas now it's people are saying, well, they're saying these tariffs will help us, butwill that really help us?
And it's like, well, I don't know, will it?
And that's where some of my head space has been at is the, if we're gonna have this tariffregime, which what does that mean for...
(16:20):
our ongoing fiscal policy and the way our economy functions, our trade functions, and theway that...
I
I mean, all the machinations of the economy can be affected by this.
Your lifestyle could be affected by this.
and even the way even the way our well, I guess it's part of the economy, the way our wayour job flow functions.
(16:45):
Job flow, like the way types of jobs that have been moving to different parts of thesector.
And we've talked about this in the past, where, you know, manufacturing is never gonnacome back like it was here, but it's gonna it could come back looking differently.
And I think there's with
some of the potential tariff regimes, is more likelihood of some of that coming back inways, but again though, we're gonna continue to see large companies push towards best cost
(17:15):
countries.
That's the...
That is the mantra.
Yeah, So it'll be interesting to see the rebalancing of the way trade flows happen hereover the next four years.
Because I do think we're gonna see some level of tariffs.
I don't think it'll be exactly what was said in the campaign, because that would be weirdif something actually happened the way it was said.
(17:39):
Yes.
But I'm sure there'll be some machination of it.
right?
There were grownups in the room last time and this time it seems like, well, I don't evenlike saying that because like I'm trying to stop being judgmental and trying to accept
what these next four years will be.
It wasn't the next.
about some of the grownups in the room from last time.
(17:59):
So I shared with you this piece that I found on Twitter by Stephen Miran who was in theTreasury Department at the end of Trump's term as one of the advisors there.
And he put out a piece talking about tariff policy.
And it was really well researched.
And...
You know, my view pretty much all along is that, if we go ahead and put in a flat 10 %tariff everywhere, you know, we'd immediately see inflation, which I think, you know, we
(18:26):
would.
I think that's undoubtedly that we would.
But what...
This dude, Dr.
Stephen Miran does much better job of is actually giving you a thoughtful argument andguide on how you could actually implement tariffs in a meaningful way that don't blow up
the economy and ultimately would be a benefit for us.
(18:47):
And that's where I come around and surprise like, okay, actually, if, you know, this guycame out and like said, you know, this is Trump's plan.
I'd like, well, that's actually interesting.
I don't necessarily think it's quite perfect.
Yeah, but you have my interest at least at this point.
So the premise behind it is that they look back at data from its previous term when webasically raised tariffs on China on net about 18%, about 18 % on net.
(19:19):
And then they looked at the actual inflation that happened during that time that would berelated to that and to look also at
why the inflation didn't change in the same way we might have anticipated.
really that of that 18%, only about 4 % ended up coming out in goods inflation.
(19:41):
Because what happened is you got a difference in the rebalancing of the exchange ratebetween the US dollar and the renminbi.
Pretty sure I pronounced that wrong, I always do.
Yes.
whatever.
that there was a currency revaluation that also happened at the same time related to that.
(20:03):
Yes, well the dollar got weaker.
Okay.
Anyway, so you get an offset effect from that that occurs.
So the argument is that you end up on, again, they cite some interesting studies.
I haven't gone into all of them.
I went into one actually.
I was kind of curious about some of the math.
And it seems like it stands up to some rigor, at least.
(20:26):
the so you end up basically not seeing you know any inflation during that time periodrelated to that and what you end up finding as well as as you dig in further.
that this happens because the United States dollar is kind of the default reserve currencyfor the world.
So we end up having this extra strong dollar because we are the reserve currency, meaningthat if India and South Korea want to trade, that trade is happening in U.S.
(20:58):
dollar denominated.
Yeah, it's U.S.
dollar denominated.
So people outside of the U.S.
are buying U.S.
dollars
just to trade back and forth with, which causes a strengthening of the USD.
And then you also have foreign investors coming in buying US stocks because they performso well.
And that helps drive up, go ahead.
(21:18):
And that helps strengthen the USD.
So what you end up having is this ultra strong United States dollar that basically thenhelps expedite the
flight of manufacturing, because it's so much cheaper to make everywhere else now.
And we can buy so many because our dollar is so inflated.
(21:42):
so what they're trying to, know, what, yeah, what Miran's arguing here is the tariffs, youwould bring them in, in incremental, you know, 1%, 2 % at a time, and set them at
different levels based upon basically our position with that trade partner
So like China might get like a 60 % tariff because of their feelings towards China.
(22:08):
Whereas a European country would get a lower level.
But also like there are certain European countries where, for example, they put a superheavy tariff on any goods the US imports over there.
So you're at this point just trying to kind of balance out in some of these levelswhere...
you already have in-balance trade tariffs going on where it doesn't make any sense forEuropeans to import a US auto because of certain tariffs.
(22:36):
And then also you can use it as a geopolitical tool to say, okay, you're working with uson complying with IP policy and okay, we're gonna respect each other's intellectual
property policies,
then we'll give you a smaller tariff and use it as a negotiating chip and trying to helpfacilitate better trade And that's a very cogent argument overall.
(23:01):
There were some things I marked it up red and blue and yellow, depending upon my feelingsabout each statement.
But I definitely was, I'm curious to hear more and to see
to do more research in it.
Because I think there may be a future where some, I mean, we're going to see it.
(23:21):
So if it's done and done well, can it be done where it would lead to a golden age?
Circling back.
I see.
Okay.
and maybe is what I'm saying.
I don't, it's possible.
Yeah, so what constant what pieces of painting with a broad brush, what pieces of changewould need to happen, you don't have to say what outcome necessarily, but like what areas
(23:51):
of our society governance, whatever, would have to see significant change in order toachieve a golden age in your year, like, you know, you're
What you're talking about here is just tariff regimes and trade, right?
But that's just one, I mean...
but what I'm talking about is then like, what would this do for the US, right?
it would help make the US dollar a little more balanced versus the rest of world, by theway, so strong, which would cause our travel to be more expensive.
(24:16):
That'd be a drawback, right?
But I think in general, we're gonna see the rest of the world's currencies, like we'vetalked about before, have more strength versus the USD as we revert to some means in the
long term anyway.
You would have the potential of, if the USD is more balanced and there's these tariffs onforeign goods, having more domestic production growth in certain industries, which could,
(24:44):
you
lead to new jobs, new schools, new trade schools, et cetera, that would lead to kind of aneconomic little boon of maybe new home building and things of that nature.
But I don't know, yeah.
But yeah, as we deport 15, fucking god damn it.
(25:05):
And we're gonna have to make this an.
and houses to two million baseline.
I don't know.
Yeah.
I don't know, I'm just trying to think.
and I can tell you there's, speaking, one kind of person who's actually slinging hammers.
Yeah.
And, you know, the rhetoric would make you think that they're all getting deported.
(25:27):
But again, rhetoric pre, you know, pre, pre-election is very different from actual, youknow, outcomes once office is held.
So we'll see on that one.
Anyway, like, you know, it's every single time I tried to spend a little time thinking,not necessarily positively, but constructively.
Mm.
something and find something that I'm like, okay, it's not that I'm spinning thispositively, it's just that there are potential positive outcomes from this broad set of
(25:57):
rhetoric.
It's not even policy, right?
I don't think there's, know, hardly any policies have been spoken about.
It's mostly just rhetoric.
Yeah, and then, but then, you know, I immediately, my mind just immediately bounces tosome, you know,
one of the more intense pieces of rhetoric that has come out.
(26:18):
so the question I asked earlier, like I think about, we've been talking about global tradeand how that can change certain pieces of fabric of.
what does it look like more for people in the U S I guess is really what the question is,right?
Like from like a up close.
Well, I guess where I'm going is like, I mean, we can take global trade and then, youknow, topic tree that out into the effects amongst society.
(26:45):
But what I'm asking is like, instead of diving into the, the, the broader branches of thattree, what other trees are there?
And part of me wonders like, so this dissolution of or mistrust of or massive changes tolarge government institutions that has been at least talked about, again, going back to
(27:07):
rhetoric, if the you know, it's like, how do if those things are implemented?
Does it change society?
Like, will these changes change, adjust like our broad society?
the voters, if you will, relationship with government, because at this point, I'd say thatrelationship is at least 53 % broken, or is that, you know?
(27:33):
And if these changes are implemented, does that number go to 42 or something?
So that's like another tree where I feel like, know, just a multitude of branches to godown in terms of...
what ifs and how does that play out and then what are the intended and unintendedconsequences of such an action.
(27:54):
So there's two trees.
I'm just looking for the trees at this point, right?
Yeah, talking about the institutions is interesting, right?
okay, talking about like nuking the Department of Education, for example, like looking atthat, like what does that do?
(28:14):
know, because the DOE itself doesn't necessarily have that many employees, but theydistribute a lot of federal funds.
So when they're talking about nuking these federal departments, that's one thing, becausethat's, you know, there's employees there, but then there's also those funds being
(28:34):
distributed is, so are they gonna say that they're basically gonna stranglehold municipalgovernments?
Is that the second order effect in that in five years you can't have trash service orsomething?
Like.
because it's about where the money's going, right?
And what it's doing when it gets there.
Yeah, and what kind of requirements are in place to receive such money.
(28:59):
Yeah, and I think a lot of the bureaucracy there is to set probably sometimes overlyonerous or weird or standards, sometimes absolutely necessary, like many times absolutely,
most times absolutely necessary, I'd probably argue.
You probably have more, I don't know, don't wanna say a broad statement like that.
But yeah, so all right, so you wanna nuke these departments.
(29:20):
What do you mean by that?
Is it there's too many people working in those departments, you wanna get rid of them, andthen?
So the money that Congress is in allocated still has to go out, right?
You can't just not, not do that.
So.
Yeah, unless Mitch McConnell is like 100 % on board and is just like complicit with everysingle change and adjusts the budget commensurally.
(29:46):
That's true.
Yeah, I guess I'd have to, I don't know enough about the budget process and yeah.
Yeah.
That's, that's, that's true.
Yeah.
So how much change can they affect?
And, and, but again, though, like even within those chambers, like how, how a long partylines every vote going to go.
(30:13):
I think even in the last couple of presidents, we've seen that there's, there's defectors,right?
You know, there's defectors on both sides.
So just because it's the count, is that what it is on the cover?
It doesn't mean that.
there aren't some smart people in there that, will, no, this is dumb.
This is dumb, dude.
I'm gonna just get rid of all this public service in my districts.
(30:36):
No, I'm not gonna do that.
I mean, you know, there's been analogies made in the past of like, some of these thingsare kind of.
like an addictive drug in a way, right?
Some of the certain public services are because once you have them, the public will nevergive them up.
I'd argue that maybe what we should do is look at how could we better run those publicservices rather than getting rid of them.
(31:00):
I do think that there's, well, I don't know.
part of it that makes me feel like it's not the beginning of the golden age because we'retalking about destruction and rebuilding, right?
And at that point, I feel like we've just hit peak.
The momentum has shifted to a different team and the...
(31:21):
to burn it down from which to back from the ashes.
Everything has not been burnt down sufficiently.
No, even the burning down hasn't really even begun.
Yeah, yeah, like in coming back to The Fourth Turning know, a couple of things they saidthat they were really confident about being staples would be really having to retool all
(31:44):
of our entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicaid because of the way they werebuilt and not being long-term stable, you know, and not being.
And if you look at the CBO's site, cbo.org, encourage you to go, or .gov, encourage you togo check it out.
Yeah, they have some warnings on there about how we're gonna have problems in the 2030s,you know?
(32:06):
It's, the current model is going to have issues if we don't make some changes.
So.
Yeah.
Which I had a, in our, in our little shared notes, like since, since we're here, I'llthrow it out there.
I don't know if we'll be prepared to talk much about it, but one of the ideas is like aninverse social security because right now the way it's all structured is, and speaking
(32:31):
from my lived experience is you're taking money from people who are, young trying toestablish themselves.
trying to buy a house, trying to have kids, maybe because they now perceive that theycan't even afford them because they also can't afford a house and taking money from that
(32:51):
cohort of people and then giving it to old people.
Yep.
How do we invert that?
How do we invert that, right?
Because now you have, mean, you know how we flip it around means testing, right?
Like nobody likes those words.
Nobody likes those words, but that's how you flip it around.
you.
(33:12):
You're saying that the people who have means have to give more.
Yeah, you're on the back end of your 65 and sitting on $5 million and...
I mean, yeah, you can't, know, I guess there's no transfer, right?
They're just sitting on it.
There's not an attacksable event occurring.
They're drawing some stuff down, but also, like, why are we distributing at least socialsecurity to certain people in those situations?
(33:37):
I don't, yeah.
the money.
They should have paid in their entire lives and then they did really well with their life.
Good for them.
But you don't get the $600 a month or whatever it is from Social Security.
Yeah.
and like, was talking about this, somebody at work through the day and like both of usare, have always been of the mindset and opinion that we were always told growing up not
(33:59):
to expect social security to make it.
So don't count on it.
So I like, honestly, I'm like, people say, what are you going to get from social?
I'm like, I don't know.
I don't care.
I'm not planning on it being there, frankly.
yeah, yeah.
I looked at, I looked at it was not too long ago, just
Yeah, looked at it like not long ago to see what the estimate was.
(34:20):
like, actually, if it all holds out, I'm going to be okay getting some pretty decent fundsfrom it.
But I don't believe it's going to.
earmarked for your parents.
Yeah, so, know, then I suspect there's a lot of our parents' generation that are, youknow, by and large, able to support a good amount of their basic living costs off of
(34:43):
Social Security and then aren't drawing down on their retirement.
So it's just, you know, then those funds are sitting there tied up, which I don't know,and is that okay?
Maybe that's okay, because then they could have a life where they need $500,000 for
fucking medical event you know that happens so
That is a good point.
End of life is extremely expensive.
Yeah.
Yeah, like it's, I feel like.
(35:06):
I also look at it like, so that money just sits there and then it's gonna get bequeathedto the kids, but it's gonna get given to the kids when they're 55.
You better have made it through at that point, Versus getting gifted that money at 35 whenyou're trying to make your life.
Like the most expensive years, 35, 45, something like that, especially if you have kids.
(35:30):
I'd especially if you're kids, I'd that.
a bunch of money, I know exactly how it would be allocated and it wouldn't be personalluxuries.
It would be, you know, flushing out my kids ability to go to college.
It would be paying for a little bit more, you know, school time.
Cause you know, we don't do, I don't think we do enough just from a budget standpoint andjust little things like that.
(35:51):
It would all be going to my kids.
Yeah, that's interesting.
I'm a, I'm saying that from a place of luxury because I bought a house and all, yada,yada, yada, right?
Other people would be like, I just want a roof.
luxury, and there's other people who are below you that that yeah, just want to dang, dangroof, right?
Or I, you know, you say that I wish you could see out my window here.
(36:17):
Because I'm literally looking across the street at a house that is, I know, a mother and ateenage son live there.
And there's just a giant hole in their roof.
Like I see it every day.
Because I live in a weird part of Houston.
where we are up and coming, but there's a mix.
yeah, it grounds me to be like, yeah, there are like.
(36:40):
there are people who would need this money, like who would take that money to like fixtheir roof, right?
Just so they didn't have water coming in, I'm sure.
And why, know, and yet worse, we're giving it to people who by and large at some point,you know, have funds that they could be, you know, helping.
I don't know, but like they also paid into it their entire lives.
Yeah, I guess when I know I'm gonna have to pay for it for my entire life and then get $0out of it.
(37:05):
It's just taking from me.
You know, it's like, this is this is the Adam Grant.
This is the taker or not taker.
This is the matcher in me, right?
It's like, well, that's completely unfair.
Let's make it unfair for everyone then I'm gonna match.
Right?
Or, or, or you go full Trumpian and be like, abolish it just just magically wave a wandand it's all gone right now and everyone has to readjust.
(37:29):
Yeah, like I don't want to, I don't want to get, I don't want to get rid of it.
And I don't, I just think we need to like retool it a bit because like I'm, like I said, Ihaven't, I don't even mind paying into it.
Like with the mindset of I'm not going to get anything out of it.
I don't really, it doesn't bother me that much because I know it helps other people.
(37:50):
I just worry like, are we maybe helping some people that don't need it?
And could we maybe be directing that in a more meaningful way?
I think that's where my rub is.
Right.
So the discussion usually centers around like, we have to raise taxes in order to fix thisproblem.
And it's like, how about we keep everything the same, but readjust the flows is kind ofwhere you're going.
(38:10):
Yeah.
That's what I would want to do.
Yeah.
But then, then, then I worry that people will be like, but you're just talking about likeObama level death panels or some shit, you know?
It's like, well, yeah, I don't, it's impossible to make 370 million people happy, I guess.
Well, yeah.
(38:30):
mean, lead a team and you'll be like, I can't make eight people happy.
Hahaha
Yeah, that's the truth.
true.
There's just going to be imbalances and there's no way getting around the fact that it'shard.
But here we are in either the approach to an ekpyrosis or, you know, it's like now's thetime.
I feel like, you know, everyone's attitude is let's throw grenades into the room.
(38:54):
So let's do it, I guess.
that's what I feel like.
think.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, right.
Let's let's.
it.
I'm like, you my stat, my, you know, again, from a place of privilege, my status quo islike not bad.
So I wasn't really into the whole let's throw flash bangs and grenades into the room.
But if the majority of people are all on board and we're good, it's clearly the people inthe room are going to start then by all means let's like get this process done as fast as
(39:21):
possible.
So the pain is sharp and short and see what's on the other side and start rebuilding.
That's kind of.
where I've landed over these past two weeks.
in a way, theoretically, at least, institutions all holding, you know, it's one term,right?
1461 days of this, and then, like, depending upon how things are going, we're gonna, in,1461 days, come back together, make a decision of, we keep going down this, like, maybe
(39:48):
things could get rocky, like, okay, well, here's a chance to pivot and say, okay, well,maybe we do see something, and we want to kind of follow that, like,
Who knows what we're gonna be thinking?
Yeah.
Who knows?
Who knows what we're going to be thinking and who knows what kind of candidates we'regoing to have.
Yeah, so you know, I'm for the chaos, I'm for chaotic neutral is my alignment I thinkright now.
(40:13):
If you were to, yeah, if you were put me in the D &D table alignment, I would be chaoticneutral thoroughly right now.
That's just where my head space is.
Yeah.
I think there's I think there's pro you know, going back to this like silent majority orwhatever you want to call it.
I think there's more of more people in that position than had ever let on.
(40:34):
Mm-hmm.
Yeah, I think by and large people on both sides of this political debate, at least, Idon't like that we're just speaking about it in terms of politics here, people feel like
things aren't working quite right everywhere in general.
And I think people by and large are in the mood for a little bit of chaos and then seeingand resetting some things.
(40:57):
And sometimes you have to, I don't know, tear it down before you can rebuild it.
All right.
Well, I'll ask this question.
In the past two weeks, more Ennui or Joi de Vivre?
Hmm last two weeks.
(41:18):
That's a good question more only a more joi de vivre
Honestly, well, for me, it was more as joi de vivre cause I was doing a little traveling,right.
Getting out and seeing, since people hadn't seen it in a while.
And, and I don't know.
Like I felt like I was more on the urge of tears of joy driving up the California coast.
(41:40):
did a long time.
Right.
yes.
Yeah.
Like, the, the, the, the look of shock on my face was I was in Santa Barbara.
Seeing the sun rise over the ocean because I didn't realize it was on a Southern point.
I'm sure there was people would have like, what is wrong with you?
(42:02):
My brain was melting.
That's good.
think this is the whole touch grass thing, right?
Like if you haven't been awed by earth in a while, you need to go find a way to do thatbecause there are a multitude of ways to do it.
And it brings some sort of beautiful connection back to this reality and lived experiencethat we have.
(42:25):
It's either people in relationships or just sheer awe at earth.
I think if I were on the spectrum of percentage, I'd be somewhere like 2 thirds to the.
Yeah, I'm with you on that.
There was similar vibes here of like getting to travel and actually meet in real life awhole bunch of people I've worked with for more than a year.
(42:49):
and yeah, I mean, and then, and then, you know, I've constructed my life so that I have, Ihave, and spend a lot of time with my kids.
see them every single day, but then they left for Hawaii and I left for the Philippinesand you know,
Not that I want to spend time away from my family, but I do think it's good for the soulevery so often.
(43:13):
Not so much as recovery, but to just deeply appreciate and miss your kin.
think that makes sense because you get overwhelmed early, you know, you lose sight of itif you're always in that, you can't see the forest for the trees, right?
So just...
get stuck in the mud rather than realize like, it's 99 % joy.
(43:35):
It's just that like, sometimes that 1 % is really loud.
And always at the same time every day and just, it's yeah.
that's, yeah, that's, that's a good point.
I know for Jamie and I, we get that a lot because it's just two of us and, you know, shetravels for work quite a bit.
(43:57):
Is it, does she'll ever get any of those moments or days?
You know what you got to do for mother's day.
mode over here, I think.
Yeah.
Well, I think that's, I think, I think that's what young, having young kids kind of likein a lot of ways, right?
It is a, especially if you don't live around, near your grandparents, it's prettyclaustrophobic.
(44:21):
Yeah, yeah, I'm going out to meet a coworker for lunch that, he's from Romania, and hiswife and are from Romania, and they have a two or three year old now.
His mother's visiting for the first time, so it's like their first time having ababysitter, so we're going out to have lunch away from a child, which they're very excited
about.
Good.
(44:42):
Yeah.
Yeah.
As a parent, you need those times and they don't come often.
Well, I mean, I have friends that have plenty of independent time and it's all paid for,or they live, you know, in town with grandparents and it's like, every Tuesday and
Thursday, the kids head over there, you know, beautiful things.
and, you know, many ways I wish I had them, but, we live differently.
(45:07):
So yeah, I, I'm
I feel strongly for your Romanian friend.
Mm-hmm, absolutely.
I'm a...
I can't imagine how y'all do it.
I'll just say that.
Yeah, it looks so hard to have to be just constantly on.
(45:30):
It seems, I don't know.
Constantly on.
Yeah.
I remember someone asked me like, what was your biggest fear or something like that?
I think a lot of people probably expect an answer to something like, what kind of fatherwill I be?
Or what kind of parents will I be?
Or something like that, like a sort of existential thing.
(45:50):
Which for many people that probably is it, right?
Especially for those of us who haven't spent a ton of time around kids.
But mine, what came out of my mouth, unfiltered, was just like, it was right there and itcame out was there's no off button.
Almost everything in life you can sort of like put away for a little bit or escape fromfor a little bit, right?
(46:13):
And I was like, you know, once, once, once a kid arrives, it's, it's here forever,forever.
considered cruel to put your dog in a crate for six hours a day.
Right.
Child, very cruel.
Very cruel.
Very.
(46:33):
If you get a good sleeper, but then at that point you ought to be sleeping as well.
And I mean, by the time you finish your chores and cleaning up after them and then getsleep yourself, it's like, wow, they're up again.
Yeah.
So.
(46:54):
I guess, you know, if we were in a golden age of approaching a golden age, how does, howdoes, does, does the services we provide or the things we provide for parents, how does
that differ?
guess that's one thing that we kind of touched on, but we got to a satisfying conclusionon, because I feel like you guys are the ones that.
(47:15):
In the gun, they're not the ones, but of, you know, parents in the country need the mostsupport.
in a lot of ways because they're doing a very important job of bringing up the nextgeneration and.
And then you guys get a lot of support to you get some tax credits that don't.
(47:36):
But probably not none, but but but but those aren't the I was saying that, but I mean.
Yeah, it doesn't begin to cover anything.
Yeah, I just, have a smaller bill to pay every year or four times a year.
Yeah, exactly.
Yeah, it's still a bill.
(47:59):
Yeah, I don't know.
yeah, those are actually that would probably be an interesting place to try to dive intolike what incentives there are and like what because you listen to Peter Zeihan and
redistribution of wealth or something and like giving funds directly to young parents oryounger parents.
I don't know that that's the answer.
(48:21):
No.
No, but then there's always a scary portion of like, well, we'll create this biggovernment program that provides this service.
then half of everyone is like, it's actually not that great.
And then they choose to go private or something.
I don't know.
There's a lot to think about there in terms of how to help foster the next generation.
(48:44):
That's the job.
It isn't just to make parents' lives easier or better or whatever.
It's like, there are gonna be kids who are lost.
because their parents aren't around or not available or working too hard to pay for thatroof that has a hole in it.
There's a lot of stuff like that, right?
So like where can you catch the...
(49:11):
Where can you catch the most amount of kids and elevate them to a place where they have abetter launch pad?
I think that's focusing on your lowest socioeconomic bracket, right, in a way, is where weneed to make sure that there's the most support networks in place for.
But once you get to a certain level, there's also a lot of, it's just staying out of theway and letting, when you have a base level covered, it's staying out of the way and not
(49:40):
trying to, like you say, like if you.
Like if I had a kid where we are, I don't know that I would be sending him to publicschools, you know, but then why am I paying for public schools?
to like move to a walkable area of town where there are cool coffee shops and a 2000square foot house cost $3 million.
(50:01):
But the school's a one.
Wow.
the lifestyle that they wanted, right?
But now they're gonna have to pay for private school, I assume, considering they canafford that kind of house, right?
So then this disparity in that neighborhood is just so intense.
And I'm not, you know, I have trouble understanding whether that fabric is a good fabricbecause some of the disadvantaged kids have...
(50:28):
Access to these families or is there just no access to those families?
They don't mix whatsoever right and I think the mixing is the most important part and thenI look at my very vanilla neighborhood of like everyone's kind of ish the same and but the
school is great and
I think about the, that, that sort of fabric a lot.
(50:50):
one of my, one of my, when was this college, my one of my ideas was like, we should takeurban kids.
This should be like pre-college or I frame it differently post high school.
meaning you don't have to be college bound to be required to do this.
and much like Germany has this, like, you have to either serve in the military or there'sthis like year of volunteer ship that you have to do something similar here where it's
(51:14):
like, you can choose the military if you want.
and get after that GI bill, whatever.
Or the other requirement, like if you don't choose that, then the requirement is thatyou've got to do this volunteer thing.
And it's basically gonna like, it would be so complicated to execute, but I like itspiritually, if you will, is take these urban kids, something, and you take these urban
(51:36):
kids and they get sent to Oklahoma and Oklahoma kids get sent to San Francisco.
like you deliberately,
put the egg beater within society so that society has mixed and people understand eachother.
think one of the speaking of, I just lost it.
What's the word for the, the fourth turning crisis?
(51:58):
ekpyrosis world war two.
Like you had people who were, I don't know, business owners and whatever fighting rightalongside some super disadvantaged kid from Brooklyn and like,
That mix, I think, was one ingredient in creating a generation that better understood eachother.
(52:28):
That's an interesting point.
yes, I think there's probably a level of truth to that.
How much is...
Yeah.
And I'm like, you don't spend enough time with different people if you're shocked by this.
yeah, that's what I feel like too.
(52:49):
It's like, how're you shocked.
I don't understand it, but.
But so like how
It's different because it's not about service.
It's about being a taker in a different way.
like, you know, college is in some ways kind of like that, right?
(53:09):
You get the.
supposed to be but does it flow that way or has it like it was once and now it isn'tquestion mark
don't know.
It probably depends which schools you're going to and what for.
(53:30):
And whether you're in a 50 50 mix or whether you're in a 2 % 98 % right?
Like I remember reading a story written by a guy who had gotten accepted to Yale, buthe's, you know, African American broken family, something or other like that.
Right.
Like, and he, I think I don't remember the whole story, whether he dropped out or whetherit was just a real slog because he wasn't like anyone and he was surrounded by, which is a
(53:57):
shame.
Right.
This is like, in many ways,
a potential golden ticket, changed the trajectory of himself and his entire bloodline, ifyou will.
And it was hard for him to understanding.
No doubt, because you...
(54:18):
But if that ratio was different, could he have, or would they have isolated themselvesfirst?
I don't know, man.
that's good question.
That's a hell of a good question.
We'll never know the answers to these questions in our lifetime.
(54:38):
And there's probably no answers to them either.
That's the thing about them.
Well, it's like once you introduce the change to try to address this problem, then thereare a litany of follow on changes that.
The knock-on effects get out of control and that's where I was saying earlier, sometimesit's best to just stay out of the way because over enough time things will continue to mix
(55:04):
and change and evolve as...
You you introduced me to the book Factfulness and I read that recently on the travel andyou know, one thing that Dr.
Rosling that wrote it pointed out...
Is that things used to, know, continually to progress and get better, which doesn't meanthat we don't have to be in, insensitive to the people that are where things are still
(55:30):
bad, right?
We can still have empathy and sympathy for them, but we also need to look and sometimesstep back and see the forest through the trees and say, you know, the number of people
that are in extreme poverty has dropped to record lows.
And there are more, you know, people having access to
(55:51):
birth control or to vaccinations, like 80 % of the kids in the world today are vaccinatedand at least in some level, you know, that's a large percentage.
That, you know, most of that is from having access to like the 20 % that aren't mostlyjust not having access to it's not because they have a small few basis points or sitting
(56:13):
up here being anti-vaxxers somewhere in the Pacific Northwest or wherever.
But
But in general, you know, what life.
in your mind, it's no wonder I had trouble living up there.
It's that the, you know, that things are, that things are, are continuing better.
(56:36):
And like, we, if maybe we don't need to come in here and try to put, you know, put a mixerin, the pot or into the bowl and mix everything up.
Maybe things are going to, there's enough entropy going on on its own.
If we just let, let things happen.
Yeah.
And it will, it will eventually it's gonna, we might not like the time it takes and we seepain and suffering and wish we could solve it right here and now.
(57:06):
And there's things you can do, I think, in your local areas to help mitigate it.
could go volunteer at the food bank, you can go and give money to charitable organizationsif you don't wanna give time.
But you can do any number of things to.
help mitigate those things, but you're not going to be able to change it in a meaningfulway.
(57:26):
yet we, think we constantly strive for wanting to have some good guy that comes in andsays, it's right.
You know, now it's just, now we got it right and everything's good.
And it's, but yeah, exactly.
or it could be for a brief period of time, but.
(57:47):
For like one day maybe.
Yeah.
Well, then it makes me ask like a follow on question of like, even if you were to design asystem that smoothed out the bumps, right?
Like you created the federal reserve and it controls, you know, interest rates with atwo-faced mission or whatever.
(58:08):
And you really have succeeded in smoothening out some of the troughs and peaks.
But without the troughs and peaks, the human psyche gets a cost to accustomed to the goodtime.
And so this goes to our like question episodes ago of like have these, turnings.
(58:33):
Expanded in time, right?
Because we've implemented systems that have smooth things out, but human nature isunstoppable.
And even though you're living in the best time and human history,
there's still going to be a large enough group of people that say, this sucks, grenades inthe room, please.
(58:54):
Yeah, I think that's always a possibility.
And I think, and I think we might be living it, but I don't know.
Again, this is where we were talking about a book that was written in 1997, I think whenit was published, right?
And we're still sitting here talking about this damn thing, you know, 27 years later.
And it was very much so many things that said that have come to fruition where I just wantto continue to see how it plays out.
(59:20):
Cause it's, it's an interesting.
Such an interesting cyclical concept.
Totally.
Well, let's leave it there, Sean.
Yeah, that's a perfect spot right at the end.
Boom!
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