January 16, 2025 • 50 mins
Hello my dear show notes readers!
I've missed you so. We took a little longer than expected break this time, because someone recently turned 40 and hit it a little too hard in the fine city of New Orleans. Have you ever been? If not, you really must go. One night is not enough. Two nights are divine. Three nights are for 30-somethings.
But back to the crux of the matter! This week, we take a look back at some dumb stuff we said about 2024 last January, have a hearty chuckle, and proceed to say some dumb stuff about the coming year. We had a blast and hope you enjoy listening in as we stare down at our big shiny crystal balls.
Hugs and kisses,
Old Man Sean
Chapters
00:00 Reflections on Predictions for 2024
09:28 Lessons Learned from Past Predictions
12:19 Bold Predictions for 2025
-15:22 The Future of Advertising and Market Behavior
-17:56 Labor Market Predictions and Economic Corrections
-21:03 Jay Powell Buys Bitcoin?
-28:29 Anticipating Scandals in Private Equity
-31:50 The DEI Pendulum Continues to Change Direction
-34:06 Labor Strikes: Frequency vs. Success
-37:28 The Future of SEO and AI Integration
-41:05 Revamping Old Apps with AI Technology
48:27 Personal Growth and Life Reflections
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Let's, let's put on our, Swami hats and get out our crystal balls and see what we canconjure up in terms of what wild crazy things 2025 could bring us What do you think, Dan?
(00:11):
I think, vol is back.
(01:02):
Hey, back at it.
Same clothes, same clothes, different week.
What year?
Different year?
A different year?
What a year it's been, Dan.
It's been a Friday,
Anybody having deja vu if I say someone told me it was Friday today and I was like, is it?
(01:22):
I think, yeah, somebody.
to our episodes back to back, then you're going to be really disappointed.
Yes.
Yeah, that's no doubt.
I'm sure, hopefully you have a temporal.
just disappointed just in the intro.
That is what I mean.
Because we're gonna, we are looking back almost, it's actually a year and five days sincethe last time we, when we first recorded some predictions for 2024, was December 15th of
(01:49):
2023.
So we're sitting here, calendar date, December 20th, just to put a timestamp on this incase something weird happens between now and when this gets released.
Talking about...
our predictions for that we made coming in for the year.
We want to kind of grade ourselves, see how we did, make fun of ourselves, pat ourselvesin the back, and then talk about what we see coming up for our bold vision.
(02:16):
We'll call it for 2025.
But first, I think let's go right back into the time machine here and hop into a clip fromour
recording last year.
Let's see how, let's see if we can make this technology work,
(03:36):
All right, so for starters, we both were thinking of rate cut by June.
Missed that.
What was it?
September before the first cut actually took place?
Yeah, for a total of what?
The first one was 50 bips and then two more 25s.
So down a point.
Is that right?
(03:56):
I believe that is correct.
Yeah, we got two more 25s, didn't we?
So yeah, down a whole point.
think we were expecting cuts, obviously.
At the beginning of the year, though, I think everybody was predicting four, five, sixcuts.
So we were, and we'll get a little more into that here in the next clip.
like, okay, so like you can cut how many times at 25 bips to get to some percentage, oryou could cut so many times at 50 bips and get to, or like a full point cut or like the
(04:22):
number of cuts.
was interesting that like, look back on it now and I didn't write this stuff down.
So I don't remember it, but like number of cuts versus like, can you actually tell me the,yeah, yeah.
looking back at it now.
It's like next time if we're doing a rate forecast.
cut.
It would have been like, we're gonna cut by a point in 2024 or something.
(04:47):
Well, on that note, let's dive right into the next clip and then we'll kind of digestthese two together in tandem.
(05:36):
Just couldn't hold my opinion back on that one, could I?
No way, neither of us could.
so overall, wrong on the number of cuts, wrong on the timing of cuts.
But again, I think magnitude, I was in that realm of my thought process being two cuts ofsomewhere between a half and a percent.
(05:58):
got towards probably the higher side of what I was thinking.
If I was being honest, at the beginning of the year, I was probably thinking closer tothree quarters of a point.
half to three quarters.
So yeah, a little maybe a little further than what I thought we would cut, but definitelyslower.
And I think that was what our theme was at the beginning of year was that things weren'tgoing to move quite as at least mine as quickly as some people expected, given where the
(06:20):
economy was, because the economy wasn't showing the signs of weakness, which we alsotalked about later, later that episode that we really the Fed would traditionally want to
see to inspire heavier cuts.
Yeah.
now I think the next thing we would say is, you know, we'll talk about this in 2025, but Ithink that the Fed's posturing is changing quite a bit in this exact moment.
(06:48):
Yeah, but overall, Dan, I don't think there was a recession this year, was there?
No, consumer stayed strong.
was part of me that feels like it's starting to weaken a little bit now, but also animalspirits are back in a strange way because of, I mean, the whole economy stupid thing
around Biden was true and accurate and definitely played out.
(07:11):
And I think there's a certain sort of unleashed attitude that is taking place right now.
I agree.
feels like a little bit of a mania though.
This week we've had some tempering a bit with certain, well, I was gonna say like the S &Pwas off a bit, Dow has been off, but there's been moderate tempering in certain areas
(07:37):
where it's not a full on bull everywhere.
It's...
It's not a full on bull everywhere, but Jay Powell said we probably are going to lessenthe amount of cuts next year because the economy is strong and then the stock market sells
off.
Yeah.
What does that mean to you?
(07:59):
Means that the economy is not as strong as we think or no, no actually
To me, it carries over to a discussion of like trying to lay down our predictions for 2025rather than reflect on our predictions of 2024.
Fair enough.
So those were the main predictions from the first part of the episode.
There was one more prediction that I'll play here now.
(08:50):
I evidently really like that joke.
It's still funny this year.
Well, good news.
got, I got this one right.
CQC was indicted by the justice department in October for fraudulent carbon credit schemearound their gas cooktops that they were deploying in Africa.
(09:11):
We talked a bit about this at length in an episode earlier this year, so I won't go intotoo much depth here, but yeah.
This one was the one prediction where I actually feel like I got it right, and the onewhere I was having some fun with my predictions.
So, yay me.
Ha ha ha
Yay me!
Unfortunately, we didn't do a big long list of predictions last year, so that's really allwe have to recap.
(09:35):
But overall, you know, we had a sense of some things.
Yeah, was, you know, these are predictions.
You're just, you're trying.
How would you, how, reviewing this of what and how we did it, what kind of changes do youwant to make for our predictions coming up?
(09:57):
So I think we need to make sure we have, in general, possible, actual metrics, like morespecifics.
Like we had a number of rate cuts there, but are we actually talking about the correctmagnitudes when we're assigning some of the numbers on things that can be predicted?
and I think, also talking about, who cares exactly what the fed's going to do up or downnext year.
(10:20):
think, I think I'm more interested in, I think it's more interesting to look at what aresome of the broader things that are going to happen, that we see happening in the, in the.
You know, world and at large, rather than just, is there going to be a recession and isthe fed going to cut?
Well, what are those some of crazy things that are going to happen this year?
(10:41):
Cause I feel like.
I feel like with the regime change we got going on, we're going to see some craziness thisyear and man, let's take some swings.
Let's be creative.
Let's, let's put on our, Swami hats and get out our crystal balls and see what we canconjure up in terms of what wild crazy things 2025 could bring us with Trump and Elon and
(11:04):
DOGE and everything that is forecasted at this point.
What do you think, Dan?
I think, vol is back.
have already said that on an episode.
Like that's what, that's what's been on my mind.
yeah.
And trying to be cognizant of being able to participate in that a little bit too.
(11:24):
cause I do think that, you know, as much as I was in denial around the first go round, Ido think that they have, have some way of like telegraphing these things.
to an extent.
So if you're listening, you have a chance at participating in the markets around some ofthe changes, rather than just like paying attention to the Pelosi Trades Twitter account.
(11:51):
Which is entertaining.
If by, depending upon your definition of entertaining, if you like to feel rage as part ofyour entertainment, I guess.
Yeah, so it's interesting.
Maybe interesting is the word I'm looking for, not entertaining.
Interesting to check out what the various members of Congress, how they're treating them.
(12:13):
Man, they do seem to have some good info, don't they?
All right.
Real quick.
What do you think about how we should be thinking about our predictions for this year?
What would we do differently this year than we did last year, in your opinion?
I started thinking, well.
I agree some sort of like, I guess some of these predictions require some sort of metricor grounded like way to measure it.
(12:42):
I was just thinking about, you know, I did a lot of time looking at Polymarket this yearand they had a lot of, you know, when they have a contract resolve, it's a very specific
thing that says, yes, this resolves one way or the other.
think too many predictions are made where it's, well, yeah, that could be interpreted asright, or that was definitely, you know, I want to say at the end of 2025, looking back on
(13:03):
it, yeah, I was way off base or yeah, I was kind of close or I was
being at a trading desk and saying like, have this idea and this thesis about the futurestate of our world, but you have to find a way to express it.
Yes, exactly.
Yeah, that's, you know, that's in the markets somewhere and therefore definable andmeasurable.
(13:27):
I agree.
I don't know how well we'll do with that, that's that we're stating into the public or theether that like we're going to do better than we did last year.
That's it.
That's that's our measurable outcome right there.
We're going to do better than we did last year.
we're going to do.
We're going to do more and we're going to do better.
That's what I say.
Okay.
(13:48):
I want to start off with my first one, which I think is that this is to me a slam dunk andI think it's easy to measure and I just can't see how it doesn't happen.
I think IPO activity next year at least doubles year on year number of IPOs in the UnitedStates.
with the rate cuts that happened this year, it takes a while for those to cycle in throughthe system and other, other things happening within the system.
(14:11):
where we started, we saw an increase in 2024 over 2023 moderately.
But I really think next year is going to be a much bigger increase year on year in termsof total volume and percentage.
Just because we're, into a port of the cycle where also markets as they get frothy or invaluations, you know, get bid up, people are going to want to tap that public window.
(14:34):
And a lot of those private, private holders that have been holding these companies now for
You know, a lot of them since really pre pandemic, some of these private valuations havebeen, have been building.
I can't imagine that some of those, holders aren't going to want to tap some of thatvalue.
What do think Dan?
I think animal spirits are back.
(14:55):
don't know how long the last, but animal spirits are back.
That's like my overarching sort of headline on what I think you're saying, which isactivity is going to go up.
think and A is going to go up, but you there is this, feeling of getting after it that isgoing to happen.
(15:15):
there's what is it?
The QBI there's like a tax thing that's going to,
sunset here, but with the incoming administration and controlling both chambers ofCongress, like I'd be really surprised if it didn't get extended.
and then just tax cuts in general, extending them, keeping that like, don't know who knowshow much they'll get slashed or whatever, keeping whatever cuts they can in place will be
(15:49):
number one priority.
Right.
Which I just, I'm saying that only because they think that if people can future castthemselves as having more cash in their wallet, then they do more stuff.
And that includes, that's plumbers to bankers up and down.
I think there's a...
Yeah, it's very much behavioral psychology, right?
When you're feeling optimistic, you behave with a little more risk in your step, in a way.
(16:16):
You're willing to, yeah.
You're like, we're pretty damn good at it, that's for sure.
Absolutely.
Dan, what's one of your predictions for the year that you think is just a slam dunk?
No way this can go wrong.
The best business model ever continues, which is Amazon ads and Google ads.
(16:41):
Despite some tumultuous thoughts around people and search and Google's business modelgoing forward, I think the Google ads business remains like incredibly strong.
and then of course Amazon ads, just an unstoppable force.
any unlock on margin anywhere in the world.
(17:04):
is eaten up by Amazon ads and Google ads.
So the minimum workable margin for sellers will remain at minimum always.
There'll be some fluctuations or whatever, but anytime there's a raise from 7 % margin to11%, Google ads will come in and bring that back down to set up or Amazon ads will bring
(17:28):
that back down to seven because anywhere there's margin, people will move in.
And then they'll advertise over their competitor and yada yada, ads win.
Wow.
That just clicked for me.
That's powerful.
That's really powerful.
who is there?
there, there anybody else in that game outside of Google and Amazon?
(17:50):
Like why isn't, yeah, yeah, yeah.
your business model, right?
Like if I'm an Amazon, like if your primary business model is Amazon, then you're notadvertising on Meta But if your primary business model is your own personal web, her own
branded website, then you're probably more Meta.
But yeah, the, it still applies.
Also, yeah, don't, don't, don't bet against Zuck.
(18:11):
That's my, ever.
feeling that right now.
Interesting, I like that, I like that.
That's a good...
That's a good prediction.
So how does that play out then?
How do we measure that?
How do we measure that?
Like, I guess we could look at what that's that they report their ad their ad revenue,right?
So we can look at year on year ad revenue.
(18:32):
Yeah, we could pick one or two or three of the companies and maybe like percent of revenueor something at ads revenue versus total revenue.
Google, and Meta.
I like that as a, you know, the big three right now, right?
And look at year-on-year revenue.
I'm just gonna make a note here.
(18:53):
Or year-on-year ad revenue.
Yeah, because I mean, Google also like might see some weird stock price action this year,because they just added on,
I think what some people might be considering the next buzzword in the market quantum intotheir, retinue.
(19:13):
Right.
So.
we discovered that the multiverse is real, so everyone should go read dark matter.
Yeah, exactly.
Or watch Rick and Morty at least.
It's a little more, it's a little more, no, no, it's cruder.
It's less successful.
I don't know why.
It's, it's just funny though.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So like, think Google, think Google's, if that, your prediction is true and what I thinkthe animal spirits feel about quantum, the way they've glashed on AI in the last couple of
(19:43):
years, then I feel that Google could be in for a, some outperformance next year, whichmeans they're probably going to just go to shit, but we'll see.
Optimism, John.
Optimism.
No.
Loading up on Google, on Alphabet, I should say.
Okay, well, moving on to our next predictions here.
(20:08):
What is a good one that I have that is measurable?
I think, go ahead.
Yeah.
So I'm going to say, I'm going to say, I'm going to, I'm going to call this, I'm going tomake a prediction around a tumultuous labor environment in 2025 between two things.
One port, port strikes happening in the start of the year.
think a potential for other strikes throughout the year.
(20:31):
You know, we have.
The USW, I'm sorry, the steel workers, big sale of US Steel that's going through thatcould cause, may or may not be going through that could cause some interesting ripplings
in that industry.
And then also just, so one, port strikes gonna happen.
Two, I think we see at least one other significant strike that is newsworthy.
(20:56):
And three, I think we see an overall, I need to figure out what the metric is for this.
but an increase in layoffs year over year from 2024 to 2025.
And I need to find if I can find that on like if a Fred dataset has that or if a BLSdataset has that, but I'll find a consistent metrics that I can look at year on year
(21:16):
because I think we're going to see an increase in the number of layoffs.
Can you prognosticate, you don't have to make this part of your prediction if you don'twant to.
Can you prognosticate what drives those layoffs?
Well, actually, hold up, before I this is an increase, let me also say like a notableincrease of at least 20%.
Like if it's up 5%, like I mean, I'm saying like from this level's baseline of layoffs tonext, I think it'll be about a 20 % minimum bump.
(21:44):
Why I am saying that is that we have those animal spirits going on, right?
So there's gonna be some...
extra hiring that happens, but then there's also going to be some sector rotation thathappens.
And when that happens, I think we tend to see, we're going to have kind of a euphoricfront half.
And then I feel like some falling to reality a little bit.
(22:06):
I don't think it's going to be, it's not like recession level.
not saying we're going to have a recession.
I'm just saying we're going to have a correction sometime late next year.
And there's going to be some, some impact in the job market, resulting from it.
That's my prediction.
I don't think I'm not saying we're doom and gloom.
I'm just saying.
There's gonna be a bump in the road.
Does that make sense?
it totally makes sense.
I would go further.
(22:27):
You would go further?
Well, you can go further on your side of the predictions, Dan.
It depends.
don't, you know, this is going to be one of those like fun clips to play.
don't know that it's like a super real prediction from me yet, but like, let's pretendthat Vivek and Elon a la DOGE, like make head roads and people are just like in the
(22:48):
streets going rah rah, do it, do it.
and we've got an extra 2 million unemployed in the matter of like months.
And then they all stopped spending money.
their whole household stopped spending money.
unemployment spikes because of, you know, it's like, think, I don't really think that'llhappen, but I, some version of it might, right?
(23:14):
Where it, the second half, has a lot more difficulty in it.
And,
I don't know.
I don't know if those are technically layoffs or they're going to be firings or ifthey're, how, how, how are they going to get labeled?
Therefore, how would they play into your thing?
that's fair, would count that in what I would consider in terms of layoffs, changing.
(23:34):
I guess I don't, I feel like that's gonna take longer to play out in my head, which is whyI was saying I didn't think it's gonna be as big this year, but maybe you're right though.
That's a good point.
Like you like,
I think their mandate has a short time frame on it.
That's true.
That's true.
That's true.
If they don't, if they don't get that fuse lit, it's not going to, right?
(23:56):
I mean, it's more likely that Elon falls out of, it's more likely that Elon falls out offavor with Trump by the end of the year than, than anything, frankly.
yeah, just wait till they have one grumpy discussion and like, just blows up ineverybody's face.
(24:17):
Right.
I just hope it's on video.
boy, that would be great.
all right.
Interesting.
all right, Dan, what's your, what's your next prediction for the year?
Jay Powell is told to buy Bitcoin.
love this one when I saw you put it down like damn it why didn't I think of that?
(24:39):
I yeah I would most would have put this as a slam dunk if I had thought of it yeahabsolutely
Yeah.
The strategic Bitcoin reserve that this I just found out.
I just found out, I forget where, that all the Bitcoin that, well, most all the Bitcointhat has been confiscated by the US government is now, has been moved into Coinbase.
(25:03):
So Coinbase, at least for now, seems to be the custodian of USA-owned Bitcoin.
Interesting.
mean why don't they put it in cold storage?
Or whatever, right?
Right?
Let's put it with the digital gold with the real gold.
(25:23):
Help talk about a Faraday cage.
Yeah.
Yeah, I really like that.
think that's, so if that happens, you don't have to make, I'm not gonna hold you to thisunless you wanna write it down, but what do you think that does to the price of Bitcoin
for the year?
If we're starting off around 100, do you think we end up up 10, up 20%, down five, down10?
(25:51):
At the end of the year, that's my gate.
Flat.
flat.
I think it'll go up, but I think it'll end flat.
Tying back into that back half of the year feeling for me of like, well, if unemployment'sup and there's just more people wandering around without incomes, then, you know, people
(26:12):
will, if any of these people have any, they're going to sell it.
And they'll just be less buyers because there's less economic activity generally.
And, woe is me sort of attitudes around stuff.
And that's, you know, self-fulfilling prophecy at that point.
Yep.
Okay, I like those calls.
I'm not, I think.
(26:32):
Hmm.
I tend to think Bitcoin's getting into your higher and flat, but that's, that's me.
How much?
Flats zero, right?
Up is how much?
flat plus or minus five?
We'll call flat plus or minus five, like with the Bitcoin's volatility, frankly, right?
If it was within 5 % of where it started the year.
(26:54):
Like if it was, I wouldn't call anything up to like even 110 kind of flattish for theyear, frankly.
agree because yeah, the expectations are that it should be like 200 or something.
Or if like the US government is buying up as much supply as it can get, then it woulddrive the price.
think is going to happen that that'll drive up some prices, but it's not going to happenas much.
And like, I think we'll end up like maybe up to like 120, 125.
Like it will be a year that's up, but like people are like, why is it up more?
(27:18):
And she's like, well, because that's the one.
J-Powell was told to buy Bitcoin, but the headline didn't include how much he was supposedto buy.
And really they were just confiscating everything that the FBI has confiscated.
And now it's like, look at this huge pile of Bitcoin we have, but we only bought ahundred.
yeah.
Yeah.
Also, also, do we know that they haven't been buying Bitcoin anywhere in the backgroundand they don't are you know, like
(27:40):
Yeah, I don't know what the rules are around that.
Yeah.
I mean, I had a B-School professor once that said, you better believe the feds buy inBitcoin.
And that was three years ago.
And he was, you know, had retired from the Fed here in Houston.
So I don't, I don't know.
(28:02):
Not so true.
other outcome that we need to have on our radar is that we won't know the answer to thisquestion.
It'll seem like I was wrong, but like in fact, we didn't know that we were right.
right, right, right.
Okay.
my next one I think is, moving to kind of the scandal front a little way from, economicmetrics.
(28:30):
I like the scandals cause they're fun to think about.
I'm like, I try to think about what's, what's gonna, what's gonna, what's gonna catch theinterest of the world this year.
So we had our ESG scandal in, 2024.
kicking us off for the first.
And we're gonna have some more of those.
Don't get me wrong.
Those are gonna continue.
But I think we're due for a scandal somewhere in private equity or private credit thisyear.
(28:52):
We've had a lot of movement to the sec, you know, private equity has been continuing togrow in popularity over the years.
The private credit specifically has really picked up in interest in market share.
How much more money is being allocated towards those vehicles.
And with all of the
(29:12):
between private credit funds that have been started and all the private equity funds thathave been sitting there holding these startups for a long time right now that are, they
like to, know, eventually, you know, move those, you know, have sales on those andbasically move to the next round of funding or move those companies forward.
I don't think we've seen as much activity and that's what I'm looking for.
(29:38):
The functioning of that system has not been happening.
quite as well as it had years prior.
And I think this year as markets are raging, people are going to get access to their moneyand we're going to see some weird, some scandal about people trying to get out of maybe
one credit vehicle into another, one equity vehicle into another and something blowing up.
I don't know exactly what it's going to look like, but I feel like we're primed for it.
(29:59):
Given how the pipes work and how things have changed, especially in private credit overthe past, what, two, three years.
Yeah.
I think you're right.
2025 is could be the year, especially if that's this back half that we keep talking about.
If things get a little wobbly, that's, that's when you w what's the Buffett Buffett quote.
(30:20):
that's where my, that's, and you know, it's kind of where we were at, at the beginning oflast year too, is that we thought the first half was going to pretty well and the
back-half would be okay.
Maybe some shakes this year.
I'm feeling a little more confident in the shakes in the back half of the year, for somereason.
And I don't, and I, and that is that just human nature rather than should I, should I justbe saying, should I just be bulled up and saying, Nope, everything's be perfect this year.
(30:43):
plus 20 % across the board at least, just risk on, risk on, risk on.
Like there's enough momentum here to steam through and keep us to 2026.
Ooh.
I'll say that this is exactly what's been on my mind.
And I think I, did I tell you or I don't remember if I said it here, if I said it toanother friend.
(31:07):
I was like, again, I, you know, call it denial, call it I was traveling the world andwasn't really participating, whatever, during the last term.
And had no job for the majority of.
Anyway, now I'm sitting here thinking like, all right, radical acceptance.
I have no excuses.
(31:28):
It's time to make money.
Everyone did last time and I was looking around going, how did I miss all of this?
And this time I'm not going to look a gift horse in the mouth and wish it away.
Now that's also when is that a sign of a top when things are about to blow up and you'reeverything's about, know, God.
(31:50):
I don't know which way.
Yeah.
this is why the people that do really well, they get paid crap tons of money.
Absolutely.
Yeah, absolutely.
They deserve it because it's Yeah, so I think that's one scandal that happens here.
The other thing I think is an ongoing scandal from this year.
(32:13):
We saw this year the DEI pendulum starting to reverse with companies like Ford and Harleyand Walmart abandoning their DEI programs and saying we're really gonna think it in the
coming years.
Target got sued this week, last week for...
Securities fraud because they didn't list D their DEI policy is disclaimer in their 10k orwhatever their annual report and so then they got they had the boycott over their DEI
(32:42):
policy And so now they're being sued for securities fraud because they didn't list outthat as a possible risk You know, probably frivolous and probably won't go through but I
think because of things like that Yeah, I think we're start to see not start to
We've already started it this year, last year.
We're going to, we're going to continue that sea change of, you know, falling back asleepor going, whatever you want to call it, the unawokening.
(33:13):
I think we're going to, we're going to continue to see that, that, that shift around, youknow, big companies, big, big companies that are, you know, representing large swaths of
the American workforce where, these policies have been enacted.
You know also probably at Continuing also in you know, some of the education spaces aswell We've started to see that and you know Well, the Supreme Court basically came out
(33:36):
last year and said that affirmative actions illegal the way that University of Michigan'sbeen applying it, right?
So that's kind of the basis of a lot of DEI policies right there even So
lots of people argue that it's just outright racism.
yeah, selectivism or whatever.
(33:56):
Yeah.
So those are my scandal picks for the year.
I think it's gonna go on kind of in the social space for us.
social.
Well, mean, like I'm talking about, like my scandal, you know, between, I guess, privateequity is not a social space, but then the DEI is kind of a social space scandal, right?
You know?
I see.
The hive mind.
(34:17):
Yeah, hive mind type of thing.
Okay.
I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna piggyback on some of your, your like port strike happensand layoffs year over year thing and say that I had written down the strikes are more
common, but don't connect.
Yeah, I wanted to ask what you meant by that.
(34:38):
I wrote this before I read the headlines today and in reading the headlines today, I seethat there are Starbucks employees striking.
There's like some teamsters that have infiltrated Amazon warehouses that are going onstrike.
and Amazon's basically like, yeah, doesn't matter.
Starbucks, I don't know what their response is going to be exactly, but like I, and thenyou've got the thugs that are the longshoremen.
(35:05):
I don't know, like at what point do these headlines hit with such frequency?
and this new animal spirits attitude of like, get on with it.
Mm-hmm.
how does that manifest into the right kind of sympathy for strikes, right?
Like the whole make America great again shouldn't be about work stoppage or fightingfellow Americans, right?
(35:32):
I just feel like there's this disconnect with...
Well, there's a disconnect with labor and capital that always is, I just don't, I don't,there's something about it that I feel like it's, they're not going to get the traction
that they hope.
I don't know how to make this measurable.
You mean, so yeah, so what you're saying is there'll be these strikes, without, by andlarge, the workers won't get their demands met, if you had to guess.
(36:00):
If you were to come down at the end of the year, you would say of these X number ofstrikes that we ended up seeing, one out of three, the worker really succeeded,
essentially, type of situation.
Okay, I'll.
Directionally, we can work with that.
That's directional enough.
think that makes sense as well because I do think there is an attitude.
(36:23):
of...
Man, like, I really just question...
What are we doing with unions?
Like what are we really trying to what are we what are we really trying to achieve and?
Hammer looking for a nail.
Not every time, but more often than not now in today's world.
Yeah, exactly.
They feel more exploitative than protective at this point in many situations.
(36:47):
you know, they have to find something to yell about to show that they still have value.
Yeah.
they have to, yeah, because they charge so much in dues and they have to justify their.
organizations.
Yeah.
Imagine if you just returned all that money back to the workers.
Hey, there's where we need to put some AI in is how do we go lean out the union orgs withAI?
So that way you can...
(37:07):
take on more money or put more in retirement.
Yeah, there you go.
And don't have to pay your union boss enough to walk around with Rolex Oyster everywhere.
Right?
Exactly.
Okay, I like that as prediction, as well,
Yeah.
(37:27):
Okay.
You had a couple others on your list here that I was kind of curious about though.
So anyone you want to go to next, SEO for LLMs or garden refresher apps?
I think those are both kind of interesting spaces.
Yeah, the SEO for LLMs, don't, I actually don't think it'll happen because I think like,you can't game AI.
(37:48):
Like you can ask it the same question and get a different answer.
But I was just thinking about it.
Like if you give the world a system, the world will try to game it and take advantages outof it.
Right?
So with search, like what was, what was the problem it was solving?
Well, the internet is a big place.
(38:08):
We're trying to find things.
I'll help you find it via search.
And then people game that system.
And now part of why Google stinks so much is because so much of it has been game, gamed.
So I guess this at this point is less prediction, more question of what does the futurelook like with LLMs once people begin to try to game them slash are the gameable.
(38:33):
Are they gameable, I think is the bigger question because of how they're trained, right?
So you would have to.
Well, fundamentally how they work, let alone how they were trained.
Yeah.
How they work.
Yeah, you're right.
Fundamentally how they work and how they're, well, how they work and then also then thedata set on their train.
It's both in many ways.
Like you, yeah, you can install bias through the data set that you trained on, but thefundamentals of how the, the process I have no idea actually how they work myself are.
(39:03):
don't.
There's like eight people in the world that do.
Yeah, so maybe they can game it.
Yes.
Throw Sam Altman a new Ferrari and maybe you can game a little bit.
yeah, exactly.
He's got a few, think.
So anyway, I guess like that's, I put it in here because I just thought it was thoughtprovoking and it was like, maybe in 2025, there's like more of a thought process around
(39:31):
this.
It's less prediction, but more like it's on my radar.
Like how does this begin?
Right?
Cause also it's gonna, yeah, maybe.
But like once this is unlocked, if ever, it will be another kind of gold rush, right?
There were people who printed dollars.
just optimizing their website for Google.
And they had nothing to sell but words on a webpage, right?
(39:55):
Which is really remarkable if you think about it, right?
Like some of these people made way more than bestselling authors.
but fundamentally though, like LLMs aren't going to bring you traffic like in that way,right?
It's a different thing.
that I'm using chat GPT a lot now and it will include links now.
Hmm, shit.
So like, what if I'm just, I'm on a walk and I'm talking to Chad GPT and we get to the,stumbled across this idea that I find really interesting.
(40:22):
I'm like, Hey, GPT or whatever I call you, like can, is there a blog article, like alengthy in depth blog article that you could, that you, you, you're basing some of your
information off of that you could send me that I could read later and it will.
or a study.
I see what you say.
Yeah, okay, I like this as an interesting question then.
(40:44):
Shit.
What do we do with that?
How do we work with that, Dan?
I don't know, but it's on my radar.
Okay.
So the next one that's more actionable.
I think like if we had, you know, a million people listen to this podcast, and you know,10 % of them took action, there still would be just gobs and gobs of opportunity left.
(41:05):
Mm-hmm.
Garden refresh of apps.
Everyone lives in a different ecosystem.
We all use different apps for different things.
Some apps we like, some apps we don't.
But think about the apps that have terrible user interfaces, terrible designs, and arejust old, but still make money.
You could go onto the sensor tower and figure out how much the app makes.
(41:25):
And with the aid of AI, I think instead of looking at some apps thinking like, that thingonly makes a hundred grand and it's going to cost me 250.
in order to completely rebuild it into something modern and nice.
Therefore it doesn't get done.
With AI, think it's gonna be like, well, this is gonna be like, for someone that reallyknows what they're doing, maybe a week and like a couple grand.
(41:49):
And you're gonna see this remarkable opportunity set of modernizing a whole bunch ofdifferent things around the internet, iOS, Android, so on.
I I need to figure out how to design an app.
You're so right.
No, we need to connect with Anton on this and get him on it, get his thoughts.
(42:12):
I feel like he'd have...
true.
Okay.
So my example right now is like my fitness pal, which has been bought and sold by how manycompanies, right?
Like the thing is totally forgotten.
No one's paying attention to it anymore, but it still remains like the most popularcalorie counting app in the world.
And then there's this like 17 year old bro.
(42:33):
many of the, how many of those user bases are sticky because they have data sets like inthat app?
No, it'd be the problem.
doesn't matter, there's new people coming.
That's how I look at it, Like short term, whatever, long term, greedy, right?
Like in the short term, I'm not, you know, if I make something and replace something inthis garden and it makes okay money for the first five years, that's cool, but beer money,
(42:58):
awesome.
But then, you know, on the back half there, it's really fresh and makes some good money,cool.
There's also weight, you can promote it and you can, you know, there's switching costs,but I bet you-
Anyway, then there's like this, forget, you know, he's 17, 18, 19, 20 years old out ofCalifornia somewhere.
(43:19):
And he created an app called Cal AI.
And the thing is just gangbusters.
He's making like a million dollars a month.
And it is the modern AI enabled Calorie Counting app.
and it's just a wrapper.
Or is it?
No, no, no, no, no, no, but I mean, it's an AI wrapper though.
(43:40):
Yeah, he didn't build an AI company.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
No, I mean, yeah.
So he's built an app that's on an AI wrapper replacing an old, you know, 10 year old.
That's a, yeah, let's get Anton on and actually interview him about this and kick aroundsome ideas.
Cause I feel like this is a, a fruitful space here in the next few years that we would befoolish not to think about and more depth because like what I, man, is there a app I can
(44:06):
put on my phone that surveys all my app usage so I can see.
which of these apps are, yeah, which of the, yeah, you're right.
You're right.
Actually it is.
but see, like, see which of these apps are probably prime for a, a makeover.
Although like.
My thing is, the future is a world without apps.
there's plenty of money to be made between now and then.
(44:28):
Yeah, okay.
But I just feel like at some point that application layer becomes less visible.
And it's just the agent layer.
if yeah, but if you build the app now, you've got the data, you've got the users, you'vegot the experience.
You could still parlay that into the next world.
right.
right.
right.
You're right.
You're absolutely right.
You're right.
(44:50):
right.
Just think about long term risks and like long term vision.
Yeah, well, I mean, if you, if like, let's say that you were really good at this and couldget it done and you built up a small portfolio over the next five years and you made 12
grand and then you make 5 % off of that, or mean, 12 million, and then you made a 5 % onthat 12 million for the, for perpetuity.
(45:12):
you happy?
I I don't know.
I probably not.
Because of the way humans work, but no, I don't know.
No, I'm just...
Yes, I can say a lot.
Yes.
No, yeah.
That would be wonderful.
I'm just being...
I'm thinking about how human nature really is.
And yeah, sure.
Anybody can be happy.
(45:33):
Will you be?
No, yeah.
No, actually that would be amazing, right?
I would be thrilled.
That would be awesome.
That would be a dream.
know, if the stock market is on average 8 % over the extreme long-term and you're onlypulling out five, then you know, you've got your, you're not touching your principal.
You let it grow just a tiny bit and you're pulling out 600 K a year.
(45:53):
I'm, you know, there's some people with some rich tastes, but I think that would be plentyfor me.
Yeah.
I would be just, I would.
That'll buy a steak and that's all I need.
Yeah, like you said, but even a rich steak, I'll afford that.
Zach, I can get one of those new induction stoves that I really want now that I listenedto it.
(46:16):
Yeah, that I heard about on odd lots.
How was that episode?
Really good.
I enjoyed it.
I would recommend, they talk about the sensor technology they had to develop and like whyit works and why it's superior.
And now all I can think about is someday I'm going to have one of those, but it's notgoing to be for another five years or something.
Cause they're like six grand a piece right now.
(46:37):
yeah.
A little outside of my butt.
I saw Nick Kokonis tweeted about them, I don't know, three months ago or something.
Yeah.
Yeah.
They, basically can like dry sous vide something that you can just put it in a pan.
Said it, say, want this steak to be 130 degrees.
Come back and the stakes are in 30 degrees.
And then you can say, now see the outside of it and it'll see the outside of it.
(46:58):
my god.
Yeah.
Check it.
See the differentiation for professionals is going to get whittled away, right?
Think about the best chefs and like.
Listen to the odd lots episode they talk exactly about that like trace.
Yes.
Yeah, that's a good one.
It's a good one for that exactly talking about then because Tracy was saying, well, onething I'm really proud of myself is I've worked to become a pretty good cook and Joe's
(47:25):
like, yeah, I can't cook for shit, but we can both make the steak the same essentially,you know.
Yeah, that's wild.
because yeah, they actually have these sensors that detect the temperature of the food asit's being cooked in the pan.
It built into the, yeah.
And so they're totally.
device and then you've got a pan and then you have the food and they have sensors thatknow the food.
(47:49):
Yeah, they're using LiDAR sensors to detect like what's going on.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So I want one.
And someday once I build these fleet of apps, I'll be able to do that.
Well, then I think we've stuck our necks out for the, for a couple of ideas.
(48:15):
I'm sure there'll be things that happen that we haven't.
that we could have thought of that we didn't spend time thinking about or talking about.
I think for as far as some interesting things look out for, think we've laid out somegroundwork at least.
Yeah, totally.
And since, you know, we sort of did like a, previous episode was a bit of a recap and alook back and this one was a little bit more of a look forward.
(48:36):
I follow this executive coach.
name is Dr.
Julie Garner and she posts some really great stuff from time to time.
And I'm going to read everyone just a little post that she put out recently, which is getcrazy about your life.
The more you dislike yourself, the more you are disconnected from yourself.
The more you are dissatisfied with your life.
the more power other people have over you.
(48:59):
Just a friendly reminder, commit to yourself.
Spend time with yourself, meditate, breathe, learn to be comfortable alone, invest in yourpassions, invest in yourself, your books, the content you watch.
Educate yourself, journal.
Get to know your beliefs so that you can change them to suit your goals.
Celebrate yourself every day.
(49:20):
The more you fall in love with your choices and your life, the more powerful you become.
lovely thought.
I like that.
I'm just trying to collect a little mantras and things to remind myself of.
that is there a link to that we can pop in the show notes as well for people that want toCirque if they want to come back to it Awesome wonderful.
Well then on that note.
I think we're gonna say Let's go kill 20-25 everybody.
(49:43):
We're gonna have a great year.
We're going to
Crush it.
We're going to crush it.
We're going to radically accept the punches as they come and let's do it.
Yes.
Thank you.
And thank you for tuning in.
We'll see you next time, everybody.
Bye.
Let's, let's put on our, Swami hats and get out our crystal balls and see what we canconjure up in terms of what wild crazy things 2025 could bring us What do you think, Dan?
(00:11):
I think, vol is back.
(01:02):
Hey, back at it.
Same clothes, same clothes, different week.
What year?
Different year?
A different year?
What a year it's been, Dan.
It's been a Friday,
Anybody having deja vu if I say someone told me it was Friday today and I was like, is it?
(01:22):
I think, yeah, somebody.
to our episodes back to back, then you're going to be really disappointed.
Yes.
Yeah, that's no doubt.
I'm sure, hopefully you have a temporal.
just disappointed just in the intro.
That is what I mean.
Because we're gonna, we are looking back almost, it's actually a year and five days sincethe last time we, when we first recorded some predictions for 2024, was December 15th of
(01:49):
2023.
So we're sitting here, calendar date, December 20th, just to put a timestamp on this incase something weird happens between now and when this gets released.
Talking about...
our predictions for that we made coming in for the year.
We want to kind of grade ourselves, see how we did, make fun of ourselves, pat ourselvesin the back, and then talk about what we see coming up for our bold vision.
(02:16):
We'll call it for 2025.
But first, I think let's go right back into the time machine here and hop into a clip fromour
recording last year.
Let's see how, let's see if we can make this technology work,
(03:36):
All right, so for starters, we both were thinking of rate cut by June.
Missed that.
What was it?
September before the first cut actually took place?
Yeah, for a total of what?
The first one was 50 bips and then two more 25s.
So down a point.
Is that right?
(03:56):
I believe that is correct.
Yeah, we got two more 25s, didn't we?
So yeah, down a whole point.
think we were expecting cuts, obviously.
At the beginning of the year, though, I think everybody was predicting four, five, sixcuts.
So we were, and we'll get a little more into that here in the next clip.
like, okay, so like you can cut how many times at 25 bips to get to some percentage, oryou could cut so many times at 50 bips and get to, or like a full point cut or like the
(04:22):
number of cuts.
was interesting that like, look back on it now and I didn't write this stuff down.
So I don't remember it, but like number of cuts versus like, can you actually tell me the,yeah, yeah.
looking back at it now.
It's like next time if we're doing a rate forecast.
cut.
It would have been like, we're gonna cut by a point in 2024 or something.
(04:47):
Well, on that note, let's dive right into the next clip and then we'll kind of digestthese two together in tandem.
(05:36):
Just couldn't hold my opinion back on that one, could I?
No way, neither of us could.
so overall, wrong on the number of cuts, wrong on the timing of cuts.
But again, I think magnitude, I was in that realm of my thought process being two cuts ofsomewhere between a half and a percent.
(05:58):
got towards probably the higher side of what I was thinking.
If I was being honest, at the beginning of the year, I was probably thinking closer tothree quarters of a point.
half to three quarters.
So yeah, a little maybe a little further than what I thought we would cut, but definitelyslower.
And I think that was what our theme was at the beginning of year was that things weren'tgoing to move quite as at least mine as quickly as some people expected, given where the
(06:20):
economy was, because the economy wasn't showing the signs of weakness, which we alsotalked about later, later that episode that we really the Fed would traditionally want to
see to inspire heavier cuts.
Yeah.
now I think the next thing we would say is, you know, we'll talk about this in 2025, but Ithink that the Fed's posturing is changing quite a bit in this exact moment.
(06:48):
Yeah, but overall, Dan, I don't think there was a recession this year, was there?
No, consumer stayed strong.
was part of me that feels like it's starting to weaken a little bit now, but also animalspirits are back in a strange way because of, I mean, the whole economy stupid thing
around Biden was true and accurate and definitely played out.
(07:11):
And I think there's a certain sort of unleashed attitude that is taking place right now.
I agree.
feels like a little bit of a mania though.
This week we've had some tempering a bit with certain, well, I was gonna say like the S &Pwas off a bit, Dow has been off, but there's been moderate tempering in certain areas
(07:37):
where it's not a full on bull everywhere.
It's...
It's not a full on bull everywhere, but Jay Powell said we probably are going to lessenthe amount of cuts next year because the economy is strong and then the stock market sells
off.
Yeah.
What does that mean to you?
(07:59):
Means that the economy is not as strong as we think or no, no actually
To me, it carries over to a discussion of like trying to lay down our predictions for 2025rather than reflect on our predictions of 2024.
Fair enough.
So those were the main predictions from the first part of the episode.
There was one more prediction that I'll play here now.
(08:50):
I evidently really like that joke.
It's still funny this year.
Well, good news.
got, I got this one right.
CQC was indicted by the justice department in October for fraudulent carbon credit schemearound their gas cooktops that they were deploying in Africa.
(09:11):
We talked a bit about this at length in an episode earlier this year, so I won't go intotoo much depth here, but yeah.
This one was the one prediction where I actually feel like I got it right, and the onewhere I was having some fun with my predictions.
So, yay me.
Ha ha ha
Yay me!
Unfortunately, we didn't do a big long list of predictions last year, so that's really allwe have to recap.
(09:35):
But overall, you know, we had a sense of some things.
Yeah, was, you know, these are predictions.
You're just, you're trying.
How would you, how, reviewing this of what and how we did it, what kind of changes do youwant to make for our predictions coming up?
(09:57):
So I think we need to make sure we have, in general, possible, actual metrics, like morespecifics.
Like we had a number of rate cuts there, but are we actually talking about the correctmagnitudes when we're assigning some of the numbers on things that can be predicted?
and I think, also talking about, who cares exactly what the fed's going to do up or downnext year.
(10:20):
think, I think I'm more interested in, I think it's more interesting to look at what aresome of the broader things that are going to happen, that we see happening in the, in the.
You know, world and at large, rather than just, is there going to be a recession and isthe fed going to cut?
Well, what are those some of crazy things that are going to happen this year?
(10:41):
Cause I feel like.
I feel like with the regime change we got going on, we're going to see some craziness thisyear and man, let's take some swings.
Let's be creative.
Let's, let's put on our, Swami hats and get out our crystal balls and see what we canconjure up in terms of what wild crazy things 2025 could bring us with Trump and Elon and
(11:04):
DOGE and everything that is forecasted at this point.
What do you think, Dan?
I think, vol is back.
have already said that on an episode.
Like that's what, that's what's been on my mind.
yeah.
And trying to be cognizant of being able to participate in that a little bit too.
(11:24):
cause I do think that, you know, as much as I was in denial around the first go round, Ido think that they have, have some way of like telegraphing these things.
to an extent.
So if you're listening, you have a chance at participating in the markets around some ofthe changes, rather than just like paying attention to the Pelosi Trades Twitter account.
(11:51):
Which is entertaining.
If by, depending upon your definition of entertaining, if you like to feel rage as part ofyour entertainment, I guess.
Yeah, so it's interesting.
Maybe interesting is the word I'm looking for, not entertaining.
Interesting to check out what the various members of Congress, how they're treating them.
(12:13):
Man, they do seem to have some good info, don't they?
All right.
Real quick.
What do you think about how we should be thinking about our predictions for this year?
What would we do differently this year than we did last year, in your opinion?
I started thinking, well.
I agree some sort of like, I guess some of these predictions require some sort of metricor grounded like way to measure it.
(12:42):
I was just thinking about, you know, I did a lot of time looking at Polymarket this yearand they had a lot of, you know, when they have a contract resolve, it's a very specific
thing that says, yes, this resolves one way or the other.
think too many predictions are made where it's, well, yeah, that could be interpreted asright, or that was definitely, you know, I want to say at the end of 2025, looking back on
(13:03):
it, yeah, I was way off base or yeah, I was kind of close or I was
being at a trading desk and saying like, have this idea and this thesis about the futurestate of our world, but you have to find a way to express it.
Yes, exactly.
Yeah, that's, you know, that's in the markets somewhere and therefore definable andmeasurable.
(13:27):
I agree.
I don't know how well we'll do with that, that's that we're stating into the public or theether that like we're going to do better than we did last year.
That's it.
That's that's our measurable outcome right there.
We're going to do better than we did last year.
we're going to do.
We're going to do more and we're going to do better.
That's what I say.
Okay.
(13:48):
I want to start off with my first one, which I think is that this is to me a slam dunk andI think it's easy to measure and I just can't see how it doesn't happen.
I think IPO activity next year at least doubles year on year number of IPOs in the UnitedStates.
with the rate cuts that happened this year, it takes a while for those to cycle in throughthe system and other, other things happening within the system.
(14:11):
where we started, we saw an increase in 2024 over 2023 moderately.
But I really think next year is going to be a much bigger increase year on year in termsof total volume and percentage.
Just because we're, into a port of the cycle where also markets as they get frothy or invaluations, you know, get bid up, people are going to want to tap that public window.
(14:34):
And a lot of those private, private holders that have been holding these companies now for
You know, a lot of them since really pre pandemic, some of these private valuations havebeen, have been building.
I can't imagine that some of those, holders aren't going to want to tap some of thatvalue.
What do think Dan?
I think animal spirits are back.
(14:55):
don't know how long the last, but animal spirits are back.
That's like my overarching sort of headline on what I think you're saying, which isactivity is going to go up.
think and A is going to go up, but you there is this, feeling of getting after it that isgoing to happen.
(15:15):
there's what is it?
The QBI there's like a tax thing that's going to,
sunset here, but with the incoming administration and controlling both chambers ofCongress, like I'd be really surprised if it didn't get extended.
and then just tax cuts in general, extending them, keeping that like, don't know who knowshow much they'll get slashed or whatever, keeping whatever cuts they can in place will be
(15:49):
number one priority.
Right.
Which I just, I'm saying that only because they think that if people can future castthemselves as having more cash in their wallet, then they do more stuff.
And that includes, that's plumbers to bankers up and down.
I think there's a...
Yeah, it's very much behavioral psychology, right?
When you're feeling optimistic, you behave with a little more risk in your step, in a way.
(16:16):
You're willing to, yeah.
You're like, we're pretty damn good at it, that's for sure.
Absolutely.
Dan, what's one of your predictions for the year that you think is just a slam dunk?
No way this can go wrong.
The best business model ever continues, which is Amazon ads and Google ads.
(16:41):
Despite some tumultuous thoughts around people and search and Google's business modelgoing forward, I think the Google ads business remains like incredibly strong.
and then of course Amazon ads, just an unstoppable force.
any unlock on margin anywhere in the world.
(17:04):
is eaten up by Amazon ads and Google ads.
So the minimum workable margin for sellers will remain at minimum always.
There'll be some fluctuations or whatever, but anytime there's a raise from 7 % margin to11%, Google ads will come in and bring that back down to set up or Amazon ads will bring
(17:28):
that back down to seven because anywhere there's margin, people will move in.
And then they'll advertise over their competitor and yada yada, ads win.
Wow.
That just clicked for me.
That's powerful.
That's really powerful.
who is there?
there, there anybody else in that game outside of Google and Amazon?
(17:50):
Like why isn't, yeah, yeah, yeah.
your business model, right?
Like if I'm an Amazon, like if your primary business model is Amazon, then you're notadvertising on Meta But if your primary business model is your own personal web, her own
branded website, then you're probably more Meta.
But yeah, the, it still applies.
Also, yeah, don't, don't, don't bet against Zuck.
(18:11):
That's my, ever.
feeling that right now.
Interesting, I like that, I like that.
That's a good...
That's a good prediction.
So how does that play out then?
How do we measure that?
How do we measure that?
Like, I guess we could look at what that's that they report their ad their ad revenue,right?
So we can look at year on year ad revenue.
(18:32):
Yeah, we could pick one or two or three of the companies and maybe like percent of revenueor something at ads revenue versus total revenue.
Google, and Meta.
I like that as a, you know, the big three right now, right?
And look at year-on-year revenue.
I'm just gonna make a note here.
(18:53):
Or year-on-year ad revenue.
Yeah, because I mean, Google also like might see some weird stock price action this year,because they just added on,
I think what some people might be considering the next buzzword in the market quantum intotheir, retinue.
(19:13):
Right.
So.
we discovered that the multiverse is real, so everyone should go read dark matter.
Yeah, exactly.
Or watch Rick and Morty at least.
It's a little more, it's a little more, no, no, it's cruder.
It's less successful.
I don't know why.
It's, it's just funny though.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So like, think Google, think Google's, if that, your prediction is true and what I thinkthe animal spirits feel about quantum, the way they've glashed on AI in the last couple of
(19:43):
years, then I feel that Google could be in for a, some outperformance next year, whichmeans they're probably going to just go to shit, but we'll see.
Optimism, John.
Optimism.
No.
Loading up on Google, on Alphabet, I should say.
Okay, well, moving on to our next predictions here.
(20:08):
What is a good one that I have that is measurable?
I think, go ahead.
Yeah.
So I'm going to say, I'm going to say, I'm going to, I'm going to call this, I'm going tomake a prediction around a tumultuous labor environment in 2025 between two things.
One port, port strikes happening in the start of the year.
think a potential for other strikes throughout the year.
(20:31):
You know, we have.
The USW, I'm sorry, the steel workers, big sale of US Steel that's going through thatcould cause, may or may not be going through that could cause some interesting ripplings
in that industry.
And then also just, so one, port strikes gonna happen.
Two, I think we see at least one other significant strike that is newsworthy.
(20:56):
And three, I think we see an overall, I need to figure out what the metric is for this.
but an increase in layoffs year over year from 2024 to 2025.
And I need to find if I can find that on like if a Fred dataset has that or if a BLSdataset has that, but I'll find a consistent metrics that I can look at year on year
(21:16):
because I think we're going to see an increase in the number of layoffs.
Can you prognosticate, you don't have to make this part of your prediction if you don'twant to.
Can you prognosticate what drives those layoffs?
Well, actually, hold up, before I this is an increase, let me also say like a notableincrease of at least 20%.
Like if it's up 5%, like I mean, I'm saying like from this level's baseline of layoffs tonext, I think it'll be about a 20 % minimum bump.
(21:44):
Why I am saying that is that we have those animal spirits going on, right?
So there's gonna be some...
extra hiring that happens, but then there's also going to be some sector rotation thathappens.
And when that happens, I think we tend to see, we're going to have kind of a euphoricfront half.
And then I feel like some falling to reality a little bit.
(22:06):
I don't think it's going to be, it's not like recession level.
not saying we're going to have a recession.
I'm just saying we're going to have a correction sometime late next year.
And there's going to be some, some impact in the job market, resulting from it.
That's my prediction.
I don't think I'm not saying we're doom and gloom.
I'm just saying.
There's gonna be a bump in the road.
Does that make sense?
it totally makes sense.
I would go further.
(22:27):
You would go further?
Well, you can go further on your side of the predictions, Dan.
It depends.
don't, you know, this is going to be one of those like fun clips to play.
don't know that it's like a super real prediction from me yet, but like, let's pretendthat Vivek and Elon a la DOGE, like make head roads and people are just like in the
(22:48):
streets going rah rah, do it, do it.
and we've got an extra 2 million unemployed in the matter of like months.
And then they all stopped spending money.
their whole household stopped spending money.
unemployment spikes because of, you know, it's like, think, I don't really think that'llhappen, but I, some version of it might, right?
(23:14):
Where it, the second half, has a lot more difficulty in it.
And,
I don't know.
I don't know if those are technically layoffs or they're going to be firings or ifthey're, how, how, how are they going to get labeled?
Therefore, how would they play into your thing?
that's fair, would count that in what I would consider in terms of layoffs, changing.
(23:34):
I guess I don't, I feel like that's gonna take longer to play out in my head, which is whyI was saying I didn't think it's gonna be as big this year, but maybe you're right though.
That's a good point.
Like you like,
I think their mandate has a short time frame on it.
That's true.
That's true.
That's true.
If they don't, if they don't get that fuse lit, it's not going to, right?
(23:56):
I mean, it's more likely that Elon falls out of, it's more likely that Elon falls out offavor with Trump by the end of the year than, than anything, frankly.
yeah, just wait till they have one grumpy discussion and like, just blows up ineverybody's face.
(24:17):
Right.
I just hope it's on video.
boy, that would be great.
all right.
Interesting.
all right, Dan, what's your, what's your next prediction for the year?
Jay Powell is told to buy Bitcoin.
love this one when I saw you put it down like damn it why didn't I think of that?
(24:39):
I yeah I would most would have put this as a slam dunk if I had thought of it yeahabsolutely
Yeah.
The strategic Bitcoin reserve that this I just found out.
I just found out, I forget where, that all the Bitcoin that, well, most all the Bitcointhat has been confiscated by the US government is now, has been moved into Coinbase.
(25:03):
So Coinbase, at least for now, seems to be the custodian of USA-owned Bitcoin.
Interesting.
mean why don't they put it in cold storage?
Or whatever, right?
Right?
Let's put it with the digital gold with the real gold.
(25:23):
Help talk about a Faraday cage.
Yeah.
Yeah, I really like that.
think that's, so if that happens, you don't have to make, I'm not gonna hold you to thisunless you wanna write it down, but what do you think that does to the price of Bitcoin
for the year?
If we're starting off around 100, do you think we end up up 10, up 20%, down five, down10?
(25:51):
At the end of the year, that's my gate.
Flat.
flat.
I think it'll go up, but I think it'll end flat.
Tying back into that back half of the year feeling for me of like, well, if unemployment'sup and there's just more people wandering around without incomes, then, you know, people
(26:12):
will, if any of these people have any, they're going to sell it.
And they'll just be less buyers because there's less economic activity generally.
And, woe is me sort of attitudes around stuff.
And that's, you know, self-fulfilling prophecy at that point.
Yep.
Okay, I like those calls.
I'm not, I think.
(26:32):
Hmm.
I tend to think Bitcoin's getting into your higher and flat, but that's, that's me.
How much?
Flats zero, right?
Up is how much?
flat plus or minus five?
We'll call flat plus or minus five, like with the Bitcoin's volatility, frankly, right?
If it was within 5 % of where it started the year.
(26:54):
Like if it was, I wouldn't call anything up to like even 110 kind of flattish for theyear, frankly.
agree because yeah, the expectations are that it should be like 200 or something.
Or if like the US government is buying up as much supply as it can get, then it woulddrive the price.
think is going to happen that that'll drive up some prices, but it's not going to happenas much.
And like, I think we'll end up like maybe up to like 120, 125.
Like it will be a year that's up, but like people are like, why is it up more?
(27:18):
And she's like, well, because that's the one.
J-Powell was told to buy Bitcoin, but the headline didn't include how much he was supposedto buy.
And really they were just confiscating everything that the FBI has confiscated.
And now it's like, look at this huge pile of Bitcoin we have, but we only bought ahundred.
yeah.
Yeah.
Also, also, do we know that they haven't been buying Bitcoin anywhere in the backgroundand they don't are you know, like
(27:40):
Yeah, I don't know what the rules are around that.
Yeah.
I mean, I had a B-School professor once that said, you better believe the feds buy inBitcoin.
And that was three years ago.
And he was, you know, had retired from the Fed here in Houston.
So I don't, I don't know.
(28:02):
Not so true.
other outcome that we need to have on our radar is that we won't know the answer to thisquestion.
It'll seem like I was wrong, but like in fact, we didn't know that we were right.
right, right, right.
Okay.
my next one I think is, moving to kind of the scandal front a little way from, economicmetrics.
(28:30):
I like the scandals cause they're fun to think about.
I'm like, I try to think about what's, what's gonna, what's gonna, what's gonna catch theinterest of the world this year.
So we had our ESG scandal in, 2024.
kicking us off for the first.
And we're gonna have some more of those.
Don't get me wrong.
Those are gonna continue.
But I think we're due for a scandal somewhere in private equity or private credit thisyear.
(28:52):
We've had a lot of movement to the sec, you know, private equity has been continuing togrow in popularity over the years.
The private credit specifically has really picked up in interest in market share.
How much more money is being allocated towards those vehicles.
And with all of the
(29:12):
between private credit funds that have been started and all the private equity funds thathave been sitting there holding these startups for a long time right now that are, they
like to, know, eventually, you know, move those, you know, have sales on those andbasically move to the next round of funding or move those companies forward.
I don't think we've seen as much activity and that's what I'm looking for.
(29:38):
The functioning of that system has not been happening.
quite as well as it had years prior.
And I think this year as markets are raging, people are going to get access to their moneyand we're going to see some weird, some scandal about people trying to get out of maybe
one credit vehicle into another, one equity vehicle into another and something blowing up.
I don't know exactly what it's going to look like, but I feel like we're primed for it.
(29:59):
Given how the pipes work and how things have changed, especially in private credit overthe past, what, two, three years.
Yeah.
I think you're right.
2025 is could be the year, especially if that's this back half that we keep talking about.
If things get a little wobbly, that's, that's when you w what's the Buffett Buffett quote.
(30:20):
that's where my, that's, and you know, it's kind of where we were at, at the beginning oflast year too, is that we thought the first half was going to pretty well and the
back-half would be okay.
Maybe some shakes this year.
I'm feeling a little more confident in the shakes in the back half of the year, for somereason.
And I don't, and I, and that is that just human nature rather than should I, should I justbe saying, should I just be bulled up and saying, Nope, everything's be perfect this year.
(30:43):
plus 20 % across the board at least, just risk on, risk on, risk on.
Like there's enough momentum here to steam through and keep us to 2026.
Ooh.
I'll say that this is exactly what's been on my mind.
And I think I, did I tell you or I don't remember if I said it here, if I said it toanother friend.
(31:07):
I was like, again, I, you know, call it denial, call it I was traveling the world andwasn't really participating, whatever, during the last term.
And had no job for the majority of.
Anyway, now I'm sitting here thinking like, all right, radical acceptance.
I have no excuses.
(31:28):
It's time to make money.
Everyone did last time and I was looking around going, how did I miss all of this?
And this time I'm not going to look a gift horse in the mouth and wish it away.
Now that's also when is that a sign of a top when things are about to blow up and you'reeverything's about, know, God.
(31:50):
I don't know which way.
Yeah.
this is why the people that do really well, they get paid crap tons of money.
Absolutely.
Yeah, absolutely.
They deserve it because it's Yeah, so I think that's one scandal that happens here.
The other thing I think is an ongoing scandal from this year.
(32:13):
We saw this year the DEI pendulum starting to reverse with companies like Ford and Harleyand Walmart abandoning their DEI programs and saying we're really gonna think it in the
coming years.
Target got sued this week, last week for...
Securities fraud because they didn't list D their DEI policy is disclaimer in their 10k orwhatever their annual report and so then they got they had the boycott over their DEI
(32:42):
policy And so now they're being sued for securities fraud because they didn't list outthat as a possible risk You know, probably frivolous and probably won't go through but I
think because of things like that Yeah, I think we're start to see not start to
We've already started it this year, last year.
We're going to, we're going to continue that sea change of, you know, falling back asleepor going, whatever you want to call it, the unawokening.
(33:13):
I think we're going to, we're going to continue to see that, that, that shift around, youknow, big companies, big, big companies that are, you know, representing large swaths of
the American workforce where, these policies have been enacted.
You know also probably at Continuing also in you know, some of the education spaces aswell We've started to see that and you know Well, the Supreme Court basically came out
(33:36):
last year and said that affirmative actions illegal the way that University of Michigan'sbeen applying it, right?
So that's kind of the basis of a lot of DEI policies right there even So
lots of people argue that it's just outright racism.
yeah, selectivism or whatever.
(33:56):
Yeah.
So those are my scandal picks for the year.
I think it's gonna go on kind of in the social space for us.
social.
Well, mean, like I'm talking about, like my scandal, you know, between, I guess, privateequity is not a social space, but then the DEI is kind of a social space scandal, right?
You know?
I see.
The hive mind.
(34:17):
Yeah, hive mind type of thing.
Okay.
I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna piggyback on some of your, your like port strike happensand layoffs year over year thing and say that I had written down the strikes are more
common, but don't connect.
Yeah, I wanted to ask what you meant by that.
(34:38):
I wrote this before I read the headlines today and in reading the headlines today, I seethat there are Starbucks employees striking.
There's like some teamsters that have infiltrated Amazon warehouses that are going onstrike.
and Amazon's basically like, yeah, doesn't matter.
Starbucks, I don't know what their response is going to be exactly, but like I, and thenyou've got the thugs that are the longshoremen.
(35:05):
I don't know, like at what point do these headlines hit with such frequency?
and this new animal spirits attitude of like, get on with it.
Mm-hmm.
how does that manifest into the right kind of sympathy for strikes, right?
Like the whole make America great again shouldn't be about work stoppage or fightingfellow Americans, right?
(35:32):
I just feel like there's this disconnect with...
Well, there's a disconnect with labor and capital that always is, I just don't, I don't,there's something about it that I feel like it's, they're not going to get the traction
that they hope.
I don't know how to make this measurable.
You mean, so yeah, so what you're saying is there'll be these strikes, without, by andlarge, the workers won't get their demands met, if you had to guess.
(36:00):
If you were to come down at the end of the year, you would say of these X number ofstrikes that we ended up seeing, one out of three, the worker really succeeded,
essentially, type of situation.
Okay, I'll.
Directionally, we can work with that.
That's directional enough.
think that makes sense as well because I do think there is an attitude.
(36:23):
of...
Man, like, I really just question...
What are we doing with unions?
Like what are we really trying to what are we what are we really trying to achieve and?
Hammer looking for a nail.
Not every time, but more often than not now in today's world.
Yeah, exactly.
They feel more exploitative than protective at this point in many situations.
(36:47):
you know, they have to find something to yell about to show that they still have value.
Yeah.
they have to, yeah, because they charge so much in dues and they have to justify their.
organizations.
Yeah.
Imagine if you just returned all that money back to the workers.
Hey, there's where we need to put some AI in is how do we go lean out the union orgs withAI?
So that way you can...
(37:07):
take on more money or put more in retirement.
Yeah, there you go.
And don't have to pay your union boss enough to walk around with Rolex Oyster everywhere.
Right?
Exactly.
Okay, I like that as prediction, as well,
Yeah.
(37:27):
Okay.
You had a couple others on your list here that I was kind of curious about though.
So anyone you want to go to next, SEO for LLMs or garden refresher apps?
I think those are both kind of interesting spaces.
Yeah, the SEO for LLMs, don't, I actually don't think it'll happen because I think like,you can't game AI.
(37:48):
Like you can ask it the same question and get a different answer.
But I was just thinking about it.
Like if you give the world a system, the world will try to game it and take advantages outof it.
Right?
So with search, like what was, what was the problem it was solving?
Well, the internet is a big place.
(38:08):
We're trying to find things.
I'll help you find it via search.
And then people game that system.
And now part of why Google stinks so much is because so much of it has been game, gamed.
So I guess this at this point is less prediction, more question of what does the futurelook like with LLMs once people begin to try to game them slash are the gameable.
(38:33):
Are they gameable, I think is the bigger question because of how they're trained, right?
So you would have to.
Well, fundamentally how they work, let alone how they were trained.
Yeah.
How they work.
Yeah, you're right.
Fundamentally how they work and how they're, well, how they work and then also then thedata set on their train.
It's both in many ways.
Like you, yeah, you can install bias through the data set that you trained on, but thefundamentals of how the, the process I have no idea actually how they work myself are.
(39:03):
don't.
There's like eight people in the world that do.
Yeah, so maybe they can game it.
Yes.
Throw Sam Altman a new Ferrari and maybe you can game a little bit.
yeah, exactly.
He's got a few, think.
So anyway, I guess like that's, I put it in here because I just thought it was thoughtprovoking and it was like, maybe in 2025, there's like more of a thought process around
(39:31):
this.
It's less prediction, but more like it's on my radar.
Like how does this begin?
Right?
Cause also it's gonna, yeah, maybe.
But like once this is unlocked, if ever, it will be another kind of gold rush, right?
There were people who printed dollars.
just optimizing their website for Google.
And they had nothing to sell but words on a webpage, right?
(39:55):
Which is really remarkable if you think about it, right?
Like some of these people made way more than bestselling authors.
but fundamentally though, like LLMs aren't going to bring you traffic like in that way,right?
It's a different thing.
that I'm using chat GPT a lot now and it will include links now.
Hmm, shit.
So like, what if I'm just, I'm on a walk and I'm talking to Chad GPT and we get to the,stumbled across this idea that I find really interesting.
(40:22):
I'm like, Hey, GPT or whatever I call you, like can, is there a blog article, like alengthy in depth blog article that you could, that you, you, you're basing some of your
information off of that you could send me that I could read later and it will.
or a study.
I see what you say.
Yeah, okay, I like this as an interesting question then.
(40:44):
Shit.
What do we do with that?
How do we work with that, Dan?
I don't know, but it's on my radar.
Okay.
So the next one that's more actionable.
I think like if we had, you know, a million people listen to this podcast, and you know,10 % of them took action, there still would be just gobs and gobs of opportunity left.
(41:05):
Mm-hmm.
Garden refresh of apps.
Everyone lives in a different ecosystem.
We all use different apps for different things.
Some apps we like, some apps we don't.
But think about the apps that have terrible user interfaces, terrible designs, and arejust old, but still make money.
You could go onto the sensor tower and figure out how much the app makes.
(41:25):
And with the aid of AI, I think instead of looking at some apps thinking like, that thingonly makes a hundred grand and it's going to cost me 250.
in order to completely rebuild it into something modern and nice.
Therefore it doesn't get done.
With AI, think it's gonna be like, well, this is gonna be like, for someone that reallyknows what they're doing, maybe a week and like a couple grand.
(41:49):
And you're gonna see this remarkable opportunity set of modernizing a whole bunch ofdifferent things around the internet, iOS, Android, so on.
I I need to figure out how to design an app.
You're so right.
No, we need to connect with Anton on this and get him on it, get his thoughts.
(42:12):
I feel like he'd have...
true.
Okay.
So my example right now is like my fitness pal, which has been bought and sold by how manycompanies, right?
Like the thing is totally forgotten.
No one's paying attention to it anymore, but it still remains like the most popularcalorie counting app in the world.
And then there's this like 17 year old bro.
(42:33):
many of the, how many of those user bases are sticky because they have data sets like inthat app?
No, it'd be the problem.
doesn't matter, there's new people coming.
That's how I look at it, Like short term, whatever, long term, greedy, right?
Like in the short term, I'm not, you know, if I make something and replace something inthis garden and it makes okay money for the first five years, that's cool, but beer money,
(42:58):
awesome.
But then, you know, on the back half there, it's really fresh and makes some good money,cool.
There's also weight, you can promote it and you can, you know, there's switching costs,but I bet you-
Anyway, then there's like this, forget, you know, he's 17, 18, 19, 20 years old out ofCalifornia somewhere.
(43:19):
And he created an app called Cal AI.
And the thing is just gangbusters.
He's making like a million dollars a month.
And it is the modern AI enabled Calorie Counting app.
and it's just a wrapper.
Or is it?
No, no, no, no, no, no, but I mean, it's an AI wrapper though.
(43:40):
Yeah, he didn't build an AI company.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
No, I mean, yeah.
So he's built an app that's on an AI wrapper replacing an old, you know, 10 year old.
That's a, yeah, let's get Anton on and actually interview him about this and kick aroundsome ideas.
Cause I feel like this is a, a fruitful space here in the next few years that we would befoolish not to think about and more depth because like what I, man, is there a app I can
(44:06):
put on my phone that surveys all my app usage so I can see.
which of these apps are, yeah, which of the, yeah, you're right.
You're right.
Actually it is.
but see, like, see which of these apps are probably prime for a, a makeover.
Although like.
My thing is, the future is a world without apps.
there's plenty of money to be made between now and then.
(44:28):
Yeah, okay.
But I just feel like at some point that application layer becomes less visible.
And it's just the agent layer.
if yeah, but if you build the app now, you've got the data, you've got the users, you'vegot the experience.
You could still parlay that into the next world.
right.
right.
right.
You're right.
You're absolutely right.
You're right.
(44:50):
right.
Just think about long term risks and like long term vision.
Yeah, well, I mean, if you, if like, let's say that you were really good at this and couldget it done and you built up a small portfolio over the next five years and you made 12
grand and then you make 5 % off of that, or mean, 12 million, and then you made a 5 % onthat 12 million for the, for perpetuity.
(45:12):
you happy?
I I don't know.
I probably not.
Because of the way humans work, but no, I don't know.
No, I'm just...
Yes, I can say a lot.
Yes.
No, yeah.
That would be wonderful.
I'm just being...
I'm thinking about how human nature really is.
And yeah, sure.
Anybody can be happy.
(45:33):
Will you be?
No, yeah.
No, actually that would be amazing, right?
I would be thrilled.
That would be awesome.
That would be a dream.
know, if the stock market is on average 8 % over the extreme long-term and you're onlypulling out five, then you know, you've got your, you're not touching your principal.
You let it grow just a tiny bit and you're pulling out 600 K a year.
(45:53):
I'm, you know, there's some people with some rich tastes, but I think that would be plentyfor me.
Yeah.
I would be just, I would.
That'll buy a steak and that's all I need.
Yeah, like you said, but even a rich steak, I'll afford that.
Zach, I can get one of those new induction stoves that I really want now that I listenedto it.
(46:16):
Yeah, that I heard about on odd lots.
How was that episode?
Really good.
I enjoyed it.
I would recommend, they talk about the sensor technology they had to develop and like whyit works and why it's superior.
And now all I can think about is someday I'm going to have one of those, but it's notgoing to be for another five years or something.
Cause they're like six grand a piece right now.
(46:37):
yeah.
A little outside of my butt.
I saw Nick Kokonis tweeted about them, I don't know, three months ago or something.
Yeah.
Yeah.
They, basically can like dry sous vide something that you can just put it in a pan.
Said it, say, want this steak to be 130 degrees.
Come back and the stakes are in 30 degrees.
And then you can say, now see the outside of it and it'll see the outside of it.
(46:58):
my god.
Yeah.
Check it.
See the differentiation for professionals is going to get whittled away, right?
Think about the best chefs and like.
Listen to the odd lots episode they talk exactly about that like trace.
Yes.
Yeah, that's a good one.
It's a good one for that exactly talking about then because Tracy was saying, well, onething I'm really proud of myself is I've worked to become a pretty good cook and Joe's
(47:25):
like, yeah, I can't cook for shit, but we can both make the steak the same essentially,you know.
Yeah, that's wild.
because yeah, they actually have these sensors that detect the temperature of the food asit's being cooked in the pan.
It built into the, yeah.
And so they're totally.
device and then you've got a pan and then you have the food and they have sensors thatknow the food.
(47:49):
Yeah, they're using LiDAR sensors to detect like what's going on.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So I want one.
And someday once I build these fleet of apps, I'll be able to do that.
Well, then I think we've stuck our necks out for the, for a couple of ideas.
(48:15):
I'm sure there'll be things that happen that we haven't.
that we could have thought of that we didn't spend time thinking about or talking about.
I think for as far as some interesting things look out for, think we've laid out somegroundwork at least.
Yeah, totally.
And since, you know, we sort of did like a, previous episode was a bit of a recap and alook back and this one was a little bit more of a look forward.
(48:36):
I follow this executive coach.
name is Dr.
Julie Garner and she posts some really great stuff from time to time.
And I'm going to read everyone just a little post that she put out recently, which is getcrazy about your life.
The more you dislike yourself, the more you are disconnected from yourself.
The more you are dissatisfied with your life.
the more power other people have over you.
(48:59):
Just a friendly reminder, commit to yourself.
Spend time with yourself, meditate, breathe, learn to be comfortable alone, invest in yourpassions, invest in yourself, your books, the content you watch.
Educate yourself, journal.
Get to know your beliefs so that you can change them to suit your goals.
Celebrate yourself every day.
(49:20):
The more you fall in love with your choices and your life, the more powerful you become.
lovely thought.
I like that.
I'm just trying to collect a little mantras and things to remind myself of.
that is there a link to that we can pop in the show notes as well for people that want toCirque if they want to come back to it Awesome wonderful.
Well then on that note.
I think we're gonna say Let's go kill 20-25 everybody.
(49:43):
We're gonna have a great year.
We're going to
Crush it.
We're going to crush it.
We're going to radically accept the punches as they come and let's do it.
Yes.
Thank you.
And thank you for tuning in.
We'll see you next time, everybody.
Bye.
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