Volatility Views 612: Fed Sends Vol Market Into A Frenzy

On this episode Mark is joined by:

• Mark Sebastian, The Option Pit
• Rich Excell, Derivatives and Trading Academy, Gies College of Business - University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign

They discuss:

• The latest in the volatility markets in the US
• The impact on volatility this week due to the Fed announcement
• The international volatility market (VSTOXX)
• The impact on volatility due to upcoming European elections 
• Interesting trading activity and developments in VSTOXX, 
  VIX, SVIX, UVIX, UVXY and VXX
• Their Crystal Ball predictions for VIX and VSTOXX
• And much more...

Brought to you by Eurex and Public.com

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Episode Transcript

(00:00):
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And now it's time to take a deep dive into the world of volatility.
It's time for Volatility Views.
All right, everybody.

(02:50):
That music can mean but one thing.
It is Friday.
It is noon central.
It is 1pm Eastern.
Do you know what's popping off in the wild?
The woolly vol market?
Well, let's find out together, shall we?
Yes, it is time.
Once again, for Volatility Views, my name of course, Mark Longo coming at you from the
network that's been beaming to you for nigh on 18 years at the end of this year.

(03:12):
18 years.
Madness.
Madness to say that out loud.
So like what you hear, throw a like a star comment.
And of course, listen to the full network.
I know you vol views, hard cores.
You like to mainline some vol, but by all means hit the network.
And of course, if you want to go above and beyond, you don't want your broadcast week
to end with vol views and who would you want to come back for some awesome oddities, man?
If you listened to last week alone with the UVIX on options, oddities, you've had a good

(03:36):
year out there.
So yeah, check out options, oddities.
You're missing out.
The options insider.com/pro is the place to go to learn more.
As we learn who's joining us on the old vol views episode for today.
Dear I say it, the penultimate vol views for the mad year that is 2024.

(03:56):
First we go out once again to the Southern volatility Mecca known as Austin, where we
are joined once again by the greasiest of meatballs.
Mr. Mark Sebastian from option pit.com.
Mr. Meatball, welcome back to vol views for the penultimate episode, sir.
Yeah.
Hey.
It's quite the day here today, huh?
Quite interesting.

(04:17):
Yeah.
Glad to be here.
Uh, plenty to talk about today.
I think, yeah, this is a, this, we can spend a lot of time just in the beginning of the
vol review this week, a lot going on this week and joining us to help break down all
the madness holding down the year X hot seat this week, our old pal, Mr. Rich Excel, the
director of the derivatives and trading academy over there at the university of Illinois,

(04:42):
the Hogg Warts for derivatives traders.
I think we have established that in his recent appearances.
So that gets that makes you Dumbledore rich.
Welcome back to the show, sir.
Yeah.
Yeah.
That makes me Dumbledore.
I guess I die in the end.
I was going to say, spoiler alert doesn't work out for you too.
I don't know how I feel about that yet.
Maybe you want to be here.
I don't know.

(05:02):
Maybe you want to go dark side.
Maybe a little snaper.
We'll workshop it.
I don't know you Morris Lithering guy.
We'll have to see.
We'll have to see how that goes.
We'll keep on rolling right on into the volatility review.
It's time to break down the latest developments in the volatility trading world.
It's time for the volatility review.

(05:24):
All right, everybody.
Welcome to the vol review.
The portion of the show we do just that we break down the week that was and indeed still

(05:48):
is and man, do we have a lot to break down out here?
What a wild week.
Our chat saying doesn't feel like Friday.
It feels like Tuesday to that.
I don't know.
In some ways, I guess that's true.
In other ways, it feels like we've done a lot of living this week.
When you hear the the vol numbers and volume numbers a little bit later, you'll see what
I'm talking about.
Of course, we all lived through it.
It was a wild week.
It was indeed Fed week listeners.

(06:10):
And you know, the last one came and went with a whimper because everyone was a little bit
more focused on the event that popped off immediately before it, which was of course
the elections.
We're still kind of digesting the results of that when the Fed did their thing.
No one really expected them to do anything in the middle of that maelstrom.
That was the case.
But they were widely expected to do the twenty five basis point cut, which is exactly what

(06:33):
they did.
In fact, I don't think I've seen the Fed watch this unanimous going into a decision in quite
some time.
It was north of ninety five percent that they were going to do the twenty five basis points.
What I don't think a lot of people had was what came after, which was of course all the
talk about the future dialing back the rate cuts.
The lingering specter of inflation not quite going away.

(06:53):
That spooked a lot of people out there.
We saw the markets head into a tailspin out there.
Really S&P off three plus percent of the other index somewhere in that ballpark as well.
Vol popping.
We saw VIX cash getting north of twenty five up to about twenty seven at one point this
week.
It was a very odd disconnect.
We'll get to that with the futures in a little bit.
But it was a weird time.

(07:14):
Of course, Dease was rolling off the board.
So you had the future going out at around a fifteen.
And then you had VIX cash north of twenty five.
It was a weird time out there to be looking at Bob.
That's what happens when you have a Fed Day right around VIX go away day.
It all kinds of madness happens out there.
And then, of course, fast forward to today after we had a couple of days of really dallying

(07:35):
with the red out there, trying to turn green yesterday, then turning red again towards
the end of the session.
But not much ever so slightly today, of course, after all this talk of inflation this week,
what comes out today.
But of course, the PCE, which is the Fed's preferred, quote unquote, the preferred indicator
of inflation and not so bad.

(07:56):
So markets off to the races again today, getting back not quite everything that they gave up
on Wednesday, but about half of it.
We were off somewhere in the ballpark of three percent, getting back about one and a half,
actually about one point seven percent right now in the S&P.
Let's see how high do we get.
We break.
We didn't break six thousand.
We're close to it, though, fifty nine eighty one or so.

(08:16):
Right around fifty nine sixty five right now puts us up about one and two thirds percent
in the S&P.
Same percentage in the Nasdaq Dow, which has just been taken to the woodshed for the last
couple of weeks out there, just a historic run of red for the Dow up one and three quarters
percent.
So one of the rare days we could say the Dow is actually leading the dance to the upside.

(08:39):
Haven't said that for a while.
And Vicks Cash after kissing up twenty seven this week.
Now, freaking nonsense is that.
I mean, again, that's the cash bearing in mind.
But now back to, shall we say, a more reasonable eighteen forty up four point one five points
since our last show obviously got much higher intraday than coming our intro week and coming

(08:59):
right back down the escalator.
The other side, Vevic still frothy, got up to one thirty seven this week.
Yes, that's kissing lower pandemic territory again when we were starting to get really
wild out there for a while.
And remember, we were north of one hundred and Vevics for a long time post pandemic.
And now back to a one sixteen still very frothy, still very elevated, but down from the massive

(09:26):
one thirty seven we kissed earlier this week that still puts us up sixteen points.
We were at exactly at one hundred a week ago.
So still up sixteen points from where we were this time a week ago.
It's apparently sailing past any concern of a shutdown.
They're like shut down.
What shut down?
We're we got a good PC.
We're good to go.
So it is one of these scenarios again where they're looking for any good news they can
get and they'll take it and they'll whistle past the graveyard of anything else, which

(09:50):
is why I think this week's Fed chat was such a shocker.
Getting a direct dose of bad news was was kind of shocking to a market that's been riding
on rate cuts and A.I. for the last couple of years.
All right.
A lot to unpack.
Let's go out to the U.S. hot seat first.
Again, this is a wild vol week.
I'm sure everyone has a lot to say.
Mr. Rich will start with you, sir.

(10:10):
A wild week.
The Fed sending markets into a tailspin.
And now we're roaring back to life, sir.
What caught your eye from a vol perspective this week?
Yeah, I mean, in some ways, I would say a little surprise at the overreaction to the
Fed news.
I mean, I had written about that the day that they called hiding in plain sight because

(10:32):
you know, Wall Street Journal leaked out that there was going to be a hawkish cut before
you know, even before it came out.
So there shouldn't have been a surprise.
I guess I'm maybe I'm biased because I've been in the higher for longer camp for a long
time than that.
The Fed shouldn't I don't think should even be cutting what they have been cutting.
But because, you know, you talk about the PC that came out.

(10:52):
I remember I'm old enough to remember when Jay Paul told us that the super core inflation,
right, the the core ex-housing services inflation is what he really cared about.
And that's still trucking along at like four point two five four point three percent.
So you look at that, it's still a fair bit of work to do now.
I mean, I know and the labor data has has definitely is not as weak as it looked a few

(11:14):
months ago.
So, you know, in some ways, expect expecting them to to sit back and relax for a little
bit here after they've cut one percent shouldn't have been a huge surprise, especially with
all the moving parts we're going to have with the new administration.
And that new administration is coming.
And you could you could tell it's the first hundred days is going to be wild and woolly

(11:34):
with everything we've seen already just in the last month.
So, you know, looking at it, you're like, I think this might be the the near term reality
once we kind of get through the holiday data data collection period.
Once we kind of get into January, I would think that we should expect a little bit more volatility.
If we're making policy via Twitter, then then, you know, that that there's going to be a

(11:57):
little bit of uncertainty. And then, of course, we look across the pond and and there's a lot
of uncertainty there.
We look north of the border. There's a lot of uncertainty. So everywhere you look, there's
some uncertainty that doesn't necessarily mean negative. But it just means to me, it
seems that you're going to get a chance to to to to gamma scalp and trade around a little
bit. And that should that should kind of add to me should keep us a floor once we kind

(12:17):
of get past the holidays.
Yeah, I'm definitely with you. I was saying this on the show last week on the network,
the degree of complacency we were seeing in the broad market, the vol market, you know,
the Fed watch. It just it screamed. Shocking to me that we were just it was a done deal.
The basis points were in and that we were just we were just partying into the holidays

(12:39):
and they were just hitting every bit involved. They could think of it just was a screaming
opportunity to me to put on some vol upsides.
Hopefully you folks did out there listeners. Hopefully you listen to shows like oddities
and stuff last week because it just it was one of those things. You know me, I don't
like when people get a little too complacent ahead of these big events. You know, Brexit
comes to mind elections recently, all sorts of fun. And you know, it's always pays to

(13:00):
have a little bit in your back pocket for these days in case things go boom. And they
certainly went boom this week. I was turned now to the southern volatility mecca. Mr.
Meatball, same question for you, sir. A wild week on the valve front. We're up. We're down.
Feds coming or inflation's come is going to kill us all. Oh, wait, it's not that bad.
Vols explode involves coming crashing back to earth. What caught your eyes, sir? Yeah,

(13:23):
I mean that 27 number was kind of phony because that took place after the bell when we had
some continued selling. It was ridiculous, but the cash market stopped and option prices
went up. Really? I think Vicks topped out around 23 and a half. We got some fall through.
I mean the movement in term structure and I know we'll talk about in a second. Absolutely.

(13:44):
Bananas. I think the part that's really fascinating is how complacent we were into the Federal
Reserve announcement. Mark, I don't know if you looked at this. Do you know what the the
at the money straddle on Wednesday heading into the Fed like five minutes before the
Federal Reserve. Do you know what you we were trading 60 60. So call that, you know, a hundred

(14:07):
points ago. And if you look at where futures closed, call it or the future is low this
morning. Call it 300 points lower. Do you know where the end and we moved 170 points
just on Wednesday. Do you know what you could have bought that at the money straddle for
way too cheap. You're talking daily. You're talking like weekly, the daily. So you would

(14:29):
have bought it at at at 1255 Central 155 Eastern and it would have closed out at three at four
o'clock. Do you know what that would have cost you $24 $24. It doesn't surprise me at all.
I was I was saying this last week. This complacency was mind boggling to me. I don't get it at

(14:49):
all. I mean, you know, I think, you know, we markets were a little bit and and so with
vault with the zero day of all that cheap. I think we had kind of a mini gamma bomb on
Wednesday. I think we saw things kind of get overdone that that zero day complacency really

(15:10):
set in and the speed with which which we blew through stuff that would normally be resistance
I think was indicative of zero DTE causing some panic. I mean, we didn't we didn't blink
at six thousand didn't blink at the 50 day movie. Didn't blink at the 21 day moving average
didn't blink at the fit at six thousand didn't blink at the 50 day moving average. Futures

(15:32):
didn't blink at six thousand. We just went boom boom boom boom boom. And I think that
was just people hitting the exit button on that that that as we kind of pulled back and
and they got kind of caught flat footed being short options in zero DTE. We've been saying
that for a while, right? That lack of reluctance to hit vol comes in a variety of flavors.

(15:55):
You see it in VIX. You see it in there. Of course, you see it now in the zero day straddles
and options as well. People have been making a living for a while now. People were pulling
me aside at the F.I.A. show just a few weeks ago. People who are professionals in other
areas of the business saying, man, I've been lured so much into these zero days. It's taking
me away from my other my day job, whatever it is, developer exchange, exact whatever.

(16:16):
But there's so much to be had out there. Yeah, it's there's there's a lot to be done out
there, but also days like this week, it could certainly maybe you maybe you give back more
than you've been taken out of late out here. So a lot of wild stuff to unpack. I want to
hear your stories. Listeners as well. Tell us your stories of this week, your trading
journey, your trading saga. Did you have some upside for a rainy day? Did you keep some

(16:38):
powder dry for the Fed? Were you all in on crushing the bid? What were you up to? They
sent it in, of course, over there at options on the major platforms, questions of the options
side of the dot com. If you listen to live, you can always chime in with what your saga
was your tale from this week as we keep on rolling. Let's go out to the land of the vast
surface, man. This could tell some stories this week as well. Coming into the beginning

(17:01):
of the show here, we of course had these rolling off the board, which by the way, I kind of
wonder if there should be some sort of by law in the vix and the vix prospectus that we
don't have the options go away in the settlement on the day of the Fed. I just it seems like
a marriage not made in any sort of heaven out there. That leads to the weirdness we saw

(17:23):
this week with the cash on wild numbers and all that and people writing into us talking
about vix cash at 27 when it really wasn't there. That's why we had to address it here
on the show. I knew people going, Oh, Vicks almost threatened to 30. Yeah, not really.
But it's one of those wild weeks. Things are always weird when Vix is going off the board
anyway in the middle of the week. But now you add the Fed into the mix and you get all

(17:44):
sorts of wild. So yeah, December growing off the board this week, January slotting up into
that pole position. Spoiler alert. Looking a little bit for all the air out there, even
though we have come back off the top right now. In fact, as I'm looking right now in
the term structure all the way out to August, remember everyone's right. Oh my God. 27 vix

(18:05):
blah blah blah. Look at the term structure right now. Again, we have come back a little
bit today, but still you can't even sniff a 20 handle. The closest you get is about
1980 going all the way out to August of next year. So can't even find a 20 handle on the
term structure as of right now, which is kind of interesting. Probably what surprised a
lot of people who just focus on that cash number all the time. Of course, that front
future is now the Jan future and coming in the start of the show, it was right around

(18:28):
18 and three quarters that puts it up about two and a quarter points from where it was
this time last week. Feb coming in, start of the show is exactly at a 19 even and puts
it up about one and two thirds points from where it was this time last week. Let's go
around the horn. The opposite of the way we start. Let's go out to the meatball first.
You said you were watching the term structure quite a bit this week. There was a lot going

(18:52):
on out there. Server cut your eye on the ball services week. Yeah, it was it was flying
around. Um, you know, we started the week with the, you know, I just love this. So we
started the week with the January future at below below 17 call it 16. It closed 1660.

(19:20):
Our peak was Thursday when the Jan future was as high as I got almost to 22. It got
as high as 21 80 close 21 45 today. We're back below 19 sitting at 18 75. So this thing is
just flailing around with 33 days. I'm actually surprised how reactive the January future

(19:46):
is to the way volatility is moving over the last couple of days. But it is it is correlating
pretty strongly. And you know, which I think is pretty fascinating. Does that give you
some pause as well? And when Vicks is going the way the dodo on the same day that Powell
and company are speaking, sir, do you keep a little extra powder drive for days like

(20:07):
that? Yes, I think it's a smart decision. And I'm killing myself for not buying that
straddle. I got to be honest. I was looking at thing. I was like, Oh, I assumed and you
told me that you had a bunch in your back pocket. Oh, I wish I did. I was sitting there
being like, that is way too cheap. That is ridiculous. That is ridiculous. That is just
ridiculous. And then I was like, well, the market makers have it their price there for

(20:32):
a reason. And so I didn't do anything. And of course, it would have been like, that would
have been like a year maker trade. You know how you make how you make a move their straddle,
you lift their officer, you say, I'll take some of that. How are they now? You can be
that guy. You can be that guy that you always dreaded as a market maker. You could be the
guy. I know. I know. How are they now and make people would have been a year maker. How are

(20:53):
they now for my 10 lot? Let's go. What you got? Yes. Good times out there. Mr. Rich,
same question for you, sir. What caught your eye in the rapidly evolving volatility surface
this week, sir? Well, you know, I'm looking at it. I mean, you can obviously see the front
end kind of whipping around a little bit. But to me, I look at it and say, I'd be expecting

(21:16):
to see a little bit more of a bump out there in kind of the March, March type of period.
Because to me, that's when you start to get into a lot of like a lot of catalyst that
we're going to be seeing in the first quarter of the year. And so I would think to me, if
I'm if I'm looking at things, I'm going to be trying to kind of position some stuff out
there. The January to me is a little tough with all the holiday stuff that's kind of

(21:38):
going on. But you know, that's where I think I'm surprised that people are not that that
especially when you're looking at the kind of the real money, their December is going
to be rolling off. Where are they going to be looking to position to kind of hedge their
portfolio? That's when you're going to get the common. You're going to you're going to
get the Fed meeting that's really in play because January is not in play. You're going
to get some more earnings. You're going to get some some more U.S. political news. And

(22:02):
so I'm surprised to see we didn't see a little bit more of a bump of people looking at that.
That I had no idea that the the the daily straddle was 24. I mean, that that is a year
maker, as Mark was saying. I mean, I just wonder how many I mean, all I kind of heard
was how much short upside dealers had. I wonder if they just choking on too much time decay
and they just had to had to reduce it. But that was that was definitely a big opportunity

(22:27):
because I mean, that that's just you know, that's that's one more with everything that
was going on. You're right. Even if the meeting was not a venue, probably you might still
have been able to make back some of that. So that's that's a bit of a surprise. Let's
see what surprises lurk in store for us now. Listeners, as we go beyond our shores to explore
a little bit of international volatility, it's time to explore what's happening in the volatility

(22:53):
market beyond our shores. It's time for the international volatility review. The international
volatility segment is brought to you by your ex home of Euro stocks, the stocks, DAX and
the German government bond based Eurobund Euro bubble Euro shots derivatives. Your ex

(23:15):
is the leading European derivatives exchange. Learn more about trading these stocks futures
and options. The European volatility benchmark at www dot your ex.com slash these stocks.
All right, everybody, let's explore what's going on in the international vol, specifically

(23:46):
touching down out there in the Euro zone. A lot of interesting developments out there
in the Euro zone since even the last time we chatted. Of course, last time we chatted,
we were talking about VIX and V stocks kind of moving within lockstep of each other. That
premium was all but gone. They were pretty much flat, which was kind of interesting.
Of course, we then saw some interesting developments out of Germany. First, we've seen France,

(24:08):
their government kind of falling apart now Germany following suit. So kind of a one,
two punch for the two leading economies in the Euro zone. Usually not a good thing for
vol on that front. And coming into the start of the show today, we had V stocks closing
at a 1684 up a little over three, about three point oh nine points. Now that may not sound
like a lot, but then again, a year ago this time, this was pretty much the year low for

(24:33):
V stocks. We had about a 1212 right around December 15th. So V stocks was being a good
little boy this time a year ago and performing as it's seasonally supposed to. This year,
we've got some political turmoil in Europe. We've got some domestic fed trouble here in
the US, all of that kind of leading to a little bit tastier, frothier stew out there in V stocks

(24:53):
land right now than we would usually expect this time of year. Of course, the high came
back in August of this year, 31 excuse me, 16 on August 5th. Not quite sniffing that
right now, but interesting to see. We also saw post fed this week after you know, V stocks
is obviously a measure of international vol, but they are not immune to vol shocks like

(25:15):
we saw with the fed. So post fed, they got completely inverted, both got jacked up. Then
of course, VIX is a more domestic vol measure. So it probably should take the lead in that
environment. That's exactly what happened. It got up to about a little over one, about
one and a half point premium to V stocks during that period. Of course, now we've seen everything
get crushed coming in to the open. So V stocks actually coming in a little more again, 1684

(25:41):
out there in V stocks to close today. Whereas as you've been talking, VIX has firmed up
a bit back up to a 19 even right now in the VIX cash. So now looking at quite the premium
about two, almost two and a quarter points worth of premium VIX over V stocks. All right.
Now led to a lot of, as you might expect this week, a lot of upside call buying in V stocks,

(26:03):
not just front month. You know, we've been talking a lot of decent kind of near dated
stuff in that one by two put spread that Russell's been talking about for a while. We saw farther
out the curve this time, upside call buying, I should say in V stocks. Obviously people
thinking this might lead to a little bit more tumult down the road, which makes sense. Germany's
elections are on February 23rd. So obviously a huge question mark. If you're looking at

(26:28):
European vol, February 23rd is marked on your calendars. The way of course the November
election was marked here for domestic vol traders here in the U S. So there's been a
lot of headlines around that of late. That of course is gumming up the works and leading
to a little volume back. You look at the term structure out there right now, you see it,
you know, a nice little bump out there around the February election part of the curve, which

(26:52):
again, not surprising. There's a huge question mark over who's going to lead pretty much
the largest economy in the Euro zone after that date. So whenever you have that kind
of a question mark, it's going to be reflected in the term structure could lead to some interesting
vol spreading opportunities out there. So kind of been an interesting, you know, this is
usually the time of year where we are struggling to piece together any sort of activity to really

(27:18):
talk about here in the vol markets. And instead we have an abundance of riches, not just in
VIX, but overseas as well. Mr. Rich, I know when you're not running classes over there
at hog awards for derivatives traders, you cast a glance occasionally across the pond
to see what's going on in the world of international volatility. Anything catching your eye out

(27:39):
there these days?
Yeah, I do. I do take a look at Europe, but every once in a while and then once it's certainly
a on a monthly basis. Um, but, but looking at it, yeah, I mean you highlighted the German
elections for sure. Um, and, and it is very interesting to see must getting involved in,
in kind of leaning on one party in favor one party there that, you know, is can he influence
a second election? Um, that, that is super interesting. But I think even before we get

(28:04):
to that, I mean, you've got the, um, you've got the new, uh, French prime minister saying
they're, they're going to try to get form a government before Christmas. Um, and then
they're going to try to put it, you know, put in a budget before, uh, before the end
of the year. Like there's still a lot of things that can go wrong in France just in the next
few days. I mean, and typically, you know, um, you just trying to lock things in and close

(28:25):
things down for the year. Um, at this point, and there's still a lot of potential catalysts
that are going on there in relatively ill, ill liquid markets though. The liquidity is
definitely has been trending higher all, you know, in Europe all year long, which is, which
is really good to see and making it a lot more tradable. So that, that spread between
V stocks and VIX. Yeah. As you mentioned, like there's a lot of, a lot going on, why,

(28:47):
why we saw the VIX moving. But to me, I, I would, I would think that I wouldn't necessarily
trade this spread, but it does suggest to me that that the V stocks might not surprised
to see the upside call by because it does seem to me like there could be a bid there.
And you know, you've definitely got the bump in the term structure around the German election
for sure. Um, but when we can't forget about the fact that there's still the, you know,

(29:11):
we still have a new U S administration is talking about tariffs on Europe. Um, you know,
a negotiating tactic most likely, but who's you negotiating with? Right? They don't have
a government in France and Germany right now. So not even clear who the, who they would
be negotiating with, even if they wanted to negotiate. Now, the one thing that I think
that probably helps dampen European of all a little bit is that the ECB has got a much

(29:33):
easier mandate than the fed because they only have a single mandate. They're only focused
on inflation and inflation has been falling. They don't have to worry about full employment.
They don't have to dual mandate. The fed does. So I think that makes it a little bit easier
because you've kind of taken the central banks out of play a little bit there. Um, but at
the same time, you know, you, you see things like, do you see like natural gas prices creeping

(29:54):
up and you're like, you know, we know what that looked like a few years ago when, when
natural gas prices went crazy and European inflation went crazy. So maybe even that's
not as easy, um, you know, is easy for the ECB is everyone kind of thinks cause they're,
they're kind of on autopilot right now in what the market's expecting. And as we know,
uh, as we just saw this week that perhaps autopilot isn't the right place. Uh, if there's an

(30:20):
expectation of autopilot, maybe that's not a good expectation. And so, uh, there's a,
I think there's a lot of opportunities, a lot of, a lot of, uh, a lot more, like I said,
a lot more liquidity. So a lot of chains to really trade these potential headlines that
you're going to see.
Yeah. And you've elected to mention the additional terror threats now going to Europe. Trump's
just throwing tariff threats. You get a tariff and you get a tariff. Even our allies, you

(30:42):
get a tariff too. Why not? So the tariffs across the board, it seems like if you're
intrigued by this stuff listeners, but maybe V stocks doesn't float your boat for whatever
reason, maybe you like a little bit more index options trading. I get it. Uh, there is a
flavor out there may be intrigued by of course Euro stocks 50. Uh, they've been really pushing
the daily options out there. In fact, that's what Russell did the whole webinar about. I
think he has the webinar coming up about this, but you know, obviously daily zero day options

(31:07):
have been a growing story here in the U S but they're not exclusively isolated to hear
their growing story overseas as well. So if you're intrigued by a little bit of intraday
vol fun over there in the Euro zone, Euro stocks, 50 daily options, uh, lighten up the
tape just early this week, December 18th. So when the market was melting down, they
set a new record, a hundred thousand contracts going up out there, a hundred thousand and

(31:30):
16 to be precise. That's a new record for them. Also, you know, we've talked for a while
about how zero day is just dominating the domestic indices, 50% plus of volume in the
SPX. And any given day is going to be these zero day contracts, a little bit different
story overseas, which is kind of interesting to see a little bit shy of 15%, 14.91%. And

(31:53):
again, that was on the busiest day they've ever had. So obviously usually it is much
less than that. So a kind of interesting, the ADV for them right now around 36,000 contracts
a day. So kind of interesting if you're looking to maybe wet your beak with a little bit of
zero day fun beyond our shores. There you go. A Euro stocks, 50 daily options might be

(32:13):
calling your name. Meanwhile, let's see is VIX calling your name right now. Listeners,
are you harkening to the siren song of VIX today? Well, it seems like some people are.
It's a pretty active day. But then again, when you start hearing some of these other
numbers I'm talking about today and this week, you might say, well, not that great, but today
763 on the tape right now. So all things considered, that is actually a fair amount of volume, especially

(32:38):
when you see that the ADV is only 730,000 contracts. That in and of itself is up 32,000 contracts
from this time last week. So again, that seasonally quiet period, VIX should be going to sleep.
Volume should be heading down the drain and instead Powell and company turning up the
flame out there. Let's see how our top 10 metric has evolved since last we chatted.

(33:04):
Listen, again, I know a lot of you glued to the VIX top 10, the newest hot indicator in
the world of vol. If I do say so myself. And right now we have back to a dear, I say it
a more normal structure here. Eight calls, only two puts to be found. This time a week
or two ago, it was completely the opposite. It was eight puts and only two calls. So the

(33:26):
pendulum has fully swung in the other direction listeners. Let's see if we can find our two
put friends here. Number 10 only cost you a hundred sixty one thousand contracts to
break into the top 10 and VIX right now. That's pretty light. But then again, remember where
we are in the seasonality. And of course, we just had VIX roll off the board on Wednesday.
So that's going to take a lot of OI with it. So a buck sixty one in this environment is

(33:49):
probably about what you'd expect. That gets us to the Jan 21. Number nine, one hundred
seventy five thousand of the Feb forty two half. So we're right back at it. Listeners
at number nine, number eight hundred seventy seven thousand of the comparatively reasonable
Jan 18. Those were looking pretty good, even still looking good right now, but looking
pretty good. Obviously earlier this week, a number seven again, right back to it. One

(34:12):
hundred eighty three thousand of the June forty two half. So you know what? If April
forty two half's not cutting it for you, allow me to present the June. Obviously this is
part of those one by three, one by four ratios that they've been doing a lot of them. They've
been rolling them out month after month. Number six, two hundred twelve thousand of the Jan
twenty twos. Number five, here's our Huckleberry listeners. Two hundred sixteen thousand of

(34:33):
the Jan 15 puts. We have a few of those in my back pocket myself right now. Number four,
two hundred thirty eight thousand of the Jan 17 puts. And then that's it. No more puts.
If you came to the dance looking for puts, that's it. You can go home now. Number three,
two hundred forty seven thousand of the Jan 20 is number two. Two hundred seventy six
thousand of the Jan 30. Remember, we had these puts dominating our tape last week. What is

(34:59):
the big dog this week? Now that these has rolled off the board listeners, it is two hundred
eighty one thousand. So actually kind of light for the top spot in Vixlan of the Jan 50s,
five ohs. So kind of interesting positioning out there. I do believe that's the other half
of a vertical out there. So I don't think folks are coming in and loading up specifically

(35:19):
on the Jan 50s where we can go dig in and find out. Let's look at today's paper first.
What is lighting up the tape out there today? Listeners, we've got eighty eight thousand
of the Jan 17 puts going up in pretty much big chunks, big chunks out here. It looks
like it's a twenty seventeen. It looks like here. So it might be a bit of a roll down here

(35:44):
from the twenty to the C. It looks like they're selling their twenty puts. So they probably
loaded those up. We're talking about put one by twos yesterday out here, listeners. I don't
think it was these exact strikes. But either way, it looks like we have a bit of a some
put one by two action or put rolling action. Eighty eight thousand of the Jan 17 puts.
Let's see. Those are there's a lot of OI there too. So it's hard to tell. They're not closing.

(36:07):
I don't think we'll have to go look in and see. Number two, forty eight thousand of the
Feb 15 puts. Those are definitely opening. Number three, forty seven thousand of the
Jan 18 puts. Number four, forty four thousand of the Jan 15 puts. Number five, forty K of
the Jan 20 puts. Not surprising. Vol kind of falling off a cliff today. So we're seeing
all puts all the time out there yesterday. Man, a banger day out there. One point four,

(36:29):
one million. It's been a while since we've seen an M handle out there in Vicksland from
a volume perspective. And we got a few this week listeners, including yesterday, the banger
day of the week, which may surprise you given the the vol we saw on Wednesday and all the
action going on Wednesday, but Thursday actually taken the bull by the horns, taking the number
one spot ever so slightly. One hundred five thousand on the tape for number one of the

(36:53):
Jan 15 puts, followed by number two, seventy three thousand of the Jan 20s. Number three,
seventy one thousand of the Jan 18 puts. Number four, sixty two thousand of the Jan 30s and
number five listeners. We have fifty four thousand of the Jan 16 puts out here. Listen, what were

(37:15):
you up to out here in terms of all things Vicks out here yesterday? Remember, we were talking
a little bit yesterday. Yeah, it was yesterday. It was the 18 15 one by two puts. We saw go up
yesterday. So the 15 puts ended up going up a hundred five thousand times. I don't think all of
that was part of this one by two. I know they did it a few times for ninety four cents, buying

(37:36):
ten thousand, selling twenty thousand of the eighteen puts versus two of the fifteen puts.
And they kept doing it a few times. So I don't think they did all a hundred five thousand of those,
but there was a lot of puts going up. Listeners, Jan 18 15 put one by two. You like that? Listeners
buying that for ninety four cents opening on both. Kind of interesting. So we've been saying for a
while, why don't we get a lot of size? Put one by twos and Vicks. There you go. There was your

(37:59):
huckleberry yesterday on a pretty active day. Wednesday, one point three five million on the
tape. The big dog once again, Jan 15 puts man who knew Jan 15 the place to be 117 thousand of those.
Number two, seventy one thousand of the Jan 14 puts. Number three, fifty two thousand of our old pal
Jan 42 half's number four, fifty two thousand of the March 20s and number five on the second

(38:23):
busiest day of the week. Forty thousand of the Jan 50s, five oh's Tuesday. Also a million contracts.
Usually on Tuesday, kind of sleepy. Everyone's waiting for the Fed on Wednesday. Not a lot going
on, but not this Tuesday. Man, a banger. One point two two million. The big dog, 124 thousand of our
old pal, the DS 15 puts. Of course, you have the added little bit of drama of Vicks going away. So

(38:46):
that's going to add some volume, which is probably what accounts for hitting a million contracts
plus on us. Otherwise, what should be a sleepy Tuesday. Number two, big drop off between one and
two. Number one, 124 thousand of the DS 15 puts. Number two, 49 thousand of the Jan 17 puts. So
quite a drop off. Number three, 48 thousand of the D 16 is number four. Forty six thousand of the Jan

(39:07):
14 half puts and number five, 39 thousand of the Feb 85s. Oh, we're back at it. Listen, I was off
the go dig and see what the other leg of that was if there was anything. But my goodness, here we
are. Feb 85s listeners. Is it that time of year? Seems like February, for whatever reason, there
is a lot of that kind of February and April seem to be the time a lot of people like to go out and

(39:28):
put on this, shall we say, optimistic upside to be charitable. I need to go dig and see what the other
leg is of that Monday. The comparatively quiet 746 thousand contracts on the tape. That makes some
sense. Obviously, we were heading into the Fed on Tuesday and Wednesday, and it is that time of year.
Listeners, 59 thousand for number one of the 13 puts, followed by 54 thousand for number two of

(39:49):
the 14 half puts. Number three, 51 thousand of the 20s. That was definitely closing. Number four,
30 thousand of the 14 puts and rounding out the top five, getting a little bit of upside going.
Twenty seven thousand of the March 35. All right, man, that is a lot of talk. And let's go out to
the Southern Val Mecca. See if he has anything to match with that. Mr. Meatball, sir, what caught

(40:11):
your eye in a flurry of VIX paper this week? Yeah. So, you know, interestingly, not a ton of,
I mean, a lot of small paper today or like medium sized paper, no giant blocks, biggest trade today,
a buyer of 29,000 of the Jan 17 puts makes sense. It's a nice little ball fade. You've got the

(40:34):
Feb 15s that are real active. So you got the Jan 17s and the Feb 15s really active on Thursday.
Pulling up my my trades as we talk on Thursday. Again, another day worth a lot of like medium
sized trades, but nothing giant. Biggest trade of the day was a seller of the Jan 15 puts.

(40:55):
They actually did the Jan 18, 15, one by two for like 90 cents. Don't hate the trade, but it just,
you know, nothing, no massive, massive trades, despite the giant move in volatility.
Wednesday, which was a VIX settlement, you think, hey, maybe we're going to get a ton of huge

(41:17):
trades. No, we get one big, huge trade. And it was a a seller of the Jan 42 calls against a buyer
of the Feb 25 calls. So kind of a weird diagonal spread, maybe a roll. And they did that 52,000

(41:39):
by 35,000. Again, no, you know, I was a little surprised that, you know, no giant 100,000 lots
around this or anything to that degree. On Tuesday, the biggest, biggest trade 30, somebody sold 30,000
of the Feb 85 calls 20 cents. They probably weren't liking that on Thursday, but you know,

(42:03):
they're probably feeling a little better about it now. Oh, you know what? It's a one by two. They
bought the 50 85 call one by two. I'm just going to say it was a nickel. Yeah. I don't know if you
saw that. I was just, I was just going to talk about, I just found the other leg of that. Yeah.
It was the fifties for 45 cents against. Did they, did they unwind it? It's definitely opening on the
85 is it might be, I don't know. Are you going to roll the fifties to the 85 as one by two is that

(42:27):
seems weird. No, I mean, I think they bought the fifties sold the 85 as one by two is like a little
hedge. Um, not a, I mean, unless you think we're going to 110 and staying there by fed, I mean,
it's not terrible, but, uh, where is that currently trading after, after the move on, on, uh, that

(42:47):
we've had over the last couple of days. Well, let's take a look. The fifties are 60 cents. The 85s are
still 20. So he's made 20 cents on it. You can, you can eight take your unwind, dude. Take your 20
cents and run. Yeah. Take your 20 cents and run, dude. Uh, and then last but not least Monday,

(43:08):
looking to see, I don't, I don't recall yet another day where nothing huge, just some closing of the,
of December options, uh, biggest like new trade, April 36 calls for 23,000 for a dollar three. So
lots of activity, but not, it wasn't the, it was all like five, 10,000 lots.

(43:31):
None of these giant, giant a hundred thousand lots that we see. Yeah. A lot of weird stuff.
I don't really love, you're right. That one by two, either way. I don't, I don't love selling
one buying two 50 85. That's weird. And then buying one selling two. I mean, for do it for
nickel credit, I guess I don't love it that way either. So yeah, if you get your 20 cents,
get that a lot of Dodge and go find a, maybe a better trade. Uh, Mr. Mr. Rich,

(43:56):
I think catching your eye in a hurricane of VIX options flow this week, sir.
I'll, I'll sell you. I hate that 50 85 one by two on either side. I'm selling one buying two
makes zero sense. I don't like that. So it's they're buying one selling two, but guess what?
Even if the VIX spikes, good luck trading out of that. You're not going to get any sort of

(44:19):
value in trading out of that. It's just, I think that one by two just makes no sense whatsoever.
And then, I mean, I guess maybe if your risk manager is tapping on the shoulder saying you,
you need some, some tail protection or something and that makes them go away.
That's the only reason I could see it because realistically as a trader, you can't trade out
of that. So you're not going to really make much money on that. So I don't see the point. Um,

(44:42):
on the flip side, I love the put one by two. Maybe it's probably a little expensive,
but I think, you know, again, I'm, I'm trying to make the case maybe for a bit of a floor
and volatility. And so I can kind of see where that, that, you know, in 1851 by two, um, you know,
there's there, you can, there's a, a good chance that by Jan, that that's probably a pretty decent

(45:02):
trade. Um, I'm not, I'm not worried, um, you know, too much below 15 to jam. You know, I say that now
and we're going into basically the next two weeks of, uh, of holidays. And so maybe I'll be wrong,
but I do that. I like that a lot more. And I know that's a, that's a trade that people tend to like,
but those call when my twos are just definitely not the way to do it. And I mean, to me, I've always,

(45:25):
uh, you, you, you really want to kind of have it, you know, it's, it's tough to put on those,
those kind of call spreads out there as protection because you really want to capture it when you
get that spike. And it's so hard to do. I think I like that to make the risk manager go away one
by tech is certainly see that being a use case. I get it's go away. I hear it. I'll do this for
a nickel. You're happy. That is really the only reason to do something like that. There's no other

(45:47):
practical reason. Cause even if you're right, even if it doesn't work out, it's not going to be,
you're going to be able to practically trade out of that in any meaningful way. So yeah, that's say,
hey, go away, leave me alone. Here's the one by two. Are you happy? And the guy looks at his
degree. Oh yeah, you're good. Okay. That's really the only reason to do something like that. And
you're right. The one by two sounds good. It put wise, except for a year, right? It's a little rich,
95, 94 cents. I thought that was a little high. I thought you could probably get more for the 15

(46:10):
puts, but Hey, say LaVie someone liked it and it's probably working out all right for them right now
at the end of the day, as we keep on rolling is S VIX working out, you know, just to kind of show
sometimes how capricious the vol gods can be listeners on this show. A couple of weeks ago,
we had our old pal Dr. VIX who's been talking about his S VIX saga for a while and how he's,

(46:30):
you know, overriding his levels out here. And he was short the 30s. He kept saying he wanted
S VIX to close at 29 99 so he could keep his underlying and live to trade another day. Well,
what happened? He kind of got his wish, even though the ball gods spited him and they closed it at 30
oh two. It's like, Oh, there you go. Dr. VIX got his S VIX called away. Boo hoo for him. But

(46:56):
that person decided not to, not to exercise their options. So Dr. VIX thought he got another free
roll of the dice. He kept his S VIX. And then lo and behold, what happens? He, I'm certain he wishes
he got called away now just shows how two cents can, can change everything. Listeners, uh, S VIX
24 and a quarter right now down five and a quarter points from where it was this time last week. That

(47:19):
isn't the whole story though. It got down to around 21 and a half earlier this week. So it got just
annihilated this week. So again, that 30 oh two level looks a hell of a lot better in hindsight.
Obviously now we've been saying for a while, what the hell is it going to take to actually
light a fire under S VIX from a volume perspective? It seems like Powell setting a match to the whole

(47:40):
market was what it took. Cause now we're seeing some numbers that are reminiscent of what we saw
a few months ago out here. 19,000 contracts on the tape out there in S VIX land. So dear, I say it,
respectable volume out here. Again, listeners, it's certainly a, certainly a hell of a lot more
than their ADVV, which is back up now. It dropped 1300 a couple of weeks ago. It's back up 1300 this

(48:02):
week back to 5,000 right now. Like we said, 19,000 on the tape. By the way, if you're wondering the
big dog out there today, 1539 of the 24 puts expiring in the weeklies on January 3rd in S VIX.
It looks like paper sold those for around a buck 30. Interesting. All right. Maybe you use that to

(48:26):
finance something else. Then you draw on a line in the sand at the 24 level in S VIX. Are you
comfortable with that listeners? Given the fact that we kissed 21 half this week. I don't know.
Interesting. Interesting stuff. Mr. Meatball, you've been riding the stormy seas now of S VIX
for a few months here with your new product out here. What caught your eye out here in a very
tumultuous week for S VIX. Yeah. I mean, it got, it took it on the chin when things started to kind

(48:50):
of un un unravel hedge monetize that this morning. So the damage was not nearly as bad as it could
have been. But, you know, I got it. Like I said, we saw kind of a mini gamma bomb on Wednesday,
Thursday, you know, we kind of saw some continuation of, of fears. And then today,

(49:13):
S VIX having a pretty nice recovery. Wouldn't be surprised to see vol get kind of the S VIX continue
to recover into, into next week. One thing going nicely for, for S VIX is the fact that, you know,
the VIX itself, the January does it, the January options don't expire till January 22nd. So S VIX

(49:39):
is still very, very heavy and almost entirely just Jan futures. So, you know, it's still going to
basically respond like being long or short of Jan future, or well, short of Jan future, if you will.
So it's, it's still extremely responsive to kind of the overall market, the overall movements in Jan.

(50:00):
Yeah, it certainly is. Speaking of rich, some of those, some of those premiums out there in S VIX
have been a little rich of late as well. If you're looking at dabbling on some of that listeners,
I know some of you have written in saying, oh, this stuff's kind of pricey. Some of that is
reflective of the spreads out there as well. But that should be getting a little better now,
spread wise, at least with some more normal numbers coming back. 19, almost 20,000. Let's
back with C right now. Have we hit 20,000 as of right now? 19,000 still, but you know,

(50:27):
more respectable on the volume front. Let's go out to you. You VIX was kind of all over the place as
well. Again, if you listened to options, oddities, we had some fun. We've been talking for a while
about different ways to do Russell's quote unquote secret, you VIX trade up for the weekend. He's not
here, so I guess we'll talk about it for him. But yeah, and just loading up on the underlying going

(50:48):
into the weekend, it seemed, I don't know, barbaric. We're not here just to buy and hold underlying
here. We're here to do some options trading. So we were workshopping different ways. And in fact,
we were talking about it with Dr. VIX, one of our pro Q and A's not too long ago, different ways to
do it. And we kind of hit upon, I think actually one of our listeners suggested on the pro side,
kind of some one by two strategies out there. And we were kind of workshopping those. I mentioned

(51:11):
before I was able to get one off for a credit a week or two ago, that was pretty fun. Then we kind
of expanded it. We were talking about it again on oddities last week. Course things were kind of
widening it out last week, so I didn't really have the opportunity to get it for a credit. And I was
debating with our buddy, the options guy, Mr. Overby on oddities, should I pull the trigger,
actually pay a penny for it. I was trying to at least get it done for even, you know, the old

(51:31):
trader in me trying to say I didn't pay for this thing. But you know, at the end of the day, once
I ticked the penny bid, bam, they filled me for days, listeners. And you know what, having a little
bit of upside vol in your back pocket, heading into the Fed wasn't the worst thing. So kind of a fun
way to play with it. Long story short, UVIX hit a high of 540 this week from up from about three

(51:52):
bucks, three bucks and change not too long ago. So nice little pop for UVIX. I said maybe that
would be UVIX, UVIX of course. And volume wise, UVIX coming roaring back to life today as well. 88,000
contracts on the tape out there in UVIX. So threatening 100k out there right now. The big
dog out there right now, 4800 of the five calls expiring today, which isn't that always the way.

(52:17):
They always love playing fast and loose on options expiring today. There's been a lot of zero day
love on expiration day specifically in UVIX for a while. Obviously the fives got, they got a bit of
a ways to go. Four halves, about 4,500 of those, those were opening. So I've been taking some off
on the fives and about 4,000 of the fours. That is obviously where the interesting action is right

(52:40):
now. The fours were trading. They traded as high as 65 cents looks like this morning. And now they
got down to 20th traded a dime out there. What UVIX is now up to about 410. So it's almost a point
from where you were a week ago about 0.95. Obviously the high was much higher and the ADV
getting a little firmer again as well. 37,000 contracts a day up about 4,000 from this time

(53:02):
last week. Mr. Meeple, I think catching your eye in the sibling SVIX product known as UVIX.
Yeah, it's getting kind of slammed today. Just shows you, we'll say it one more time. When
vol pops, you have to monetize and you know, it's back down to, it looks like it might,
you know, it's crossed back under $4 today. The volume is definitely, definitely there.

(53:29):
You do have some people playing in it for next week on the option side. I keep waiting for
this thing to reverse split, so it becomes more fun to trade. But man, that implied volatility
180%. You want to buy some calls? You want to buy the five calls for 205% Mark?
I know I prefer to do my ratios when it's down around three bucks. That's, that's a little more,

(53:53):
a little more fun for me out there listening. If you want to hear more about all that fun,
of course, stay tuned for options, oddities, and a little bit after the show, we'll get into all
that fun. How I ended up unwinding all that, which again, as me, Paul was just pointing out,
monetizing that is the, is 90% of the game in the vol space. So you got to, you got to know when to
hold them and know when to take them off and live to fight another day and take your money

(54:14):
and go home. VXX, the meatballs, other favorite 48 and 90 right now, about six and a half points
from last week. It got up to a little bit north of 56 early this week, 56, 14. So a VXX still looking
frothy out there. 40, almost 49 right now, 57,000 contracts on the tape. The ADV is 29,000 up above

(54:35):
3000. Mark, you said you were kind of dabbling in VXX again, mostly in downside puts. Has that been
the case of later? Has this just been too wild of a time and you've been more focused on the,
the S fixes and VIXs and U-VIXs of the world? No, I bet. I've been dabbling here.
It's been, it's, it's the volume, the markets have started to tighten up a little bit. The volumes
come back. You know, it's 50 bucks. So it's got some real teeth. It can be a, it can be a fun

(55:01):
little, fun little stock to trade. I actually, I'm going to probably add a little bit more here.
Thank you for reminding me a little nibble here for some VXX downside. And it's time for us to all
nibble at the delicious ambrosia of the Val God. Will we choke on it listeners or will we celebrate?
I guess we'll find out. It is time for the crystal ball.
It's time to peer into the future and reveal what the volatility gods hold in store.

(55:33):
It's time to look into the crystal ball.
All right, listeners, welcome to the crystal ball. And man, I said before we were starting to see
Val firm up during the show and that appears to be the case. We're still up in all the major
indices around one and a half percent across the board, but obviously coming back a little bit from

(55:56):
those highs of around up nearly one and three quarters, one and two thirds percent at the start
of the show. And VIX itself is firming up a little bit as well. We're at about a 1931 coming into the
end of the show, whereas we are at about, I think at an 1840 to kick off the show out there. So
firming up nearly a full point out here as maybe some folks, this lingering prospect of potentially

(56:20):
a government shutdown over the weekend and maybe just some other general market uncertainty
leading to a little bit more froth on top, obviously a ways to go
to be some interesting trading in UVIX towards the close out there today. Either way, 1931 for VIX
and we already said V stocks close at 1684. So let's run through the list. First V stocks. The closest

(56:45):
was Andrew last week at a 14 even Russell. He and Russell were were kissing cousins there. Russell
was at 1399. We also had Gary Norden on the show last week. He was at a 1270. I was at a 13 double.
No joy for any of us because we didn't have this V stocks pop in our crystal ball. Same deal for

(57:06):
VIX kind of across the board. The closest and I put it in air quotes was Andrew at 14 and a quarter,
obviously over five points away from where we are right now. So no winner when a chicken dinner for
any of us there. I was at a 1328. So I was the next closest. Then we had Russell at 1299 and Gary was
at a 12 half. So no joy for any of us, which means Rich as our guest, you get the dubious honor of

(57:32):
going first, sir. What are you feeling for this time next week and VIX and if you're feeling
daring, you could throw V stocks in there as well, sir. That's a good question. I, you know,
I think we're going to, I think we're going to melt away a little bit here in the VIX and I'm
going to, I'm going to go 1716 and I will throw out a V stocks can saying, trying to stay consistent

(57:53):
with my, my view. I think V stocks is going to, I think that spreads going to collapse and I think
I'm going to put 1766 for the V stocks. I think we're going to see that flip around again. Wow.
Kind of right. I think the French budget's going to fail and we're going to see a little pop.
Interesting. Interesting there on the VIX and V stocks front, Mr. Meatball, your compatriot,

(58:16):
Andrew was the next closest. So you get the second dubious honor of going second. What,
what are you thinking for VIX and or V stocks next week, sir? All right. So where's V stocks right now?
It closed today at a 1684. Okay. All right. I'm going to, I'm, I'll tell you, I think we cleared

(58:38):
things up. I think they get the budget seal deal signed. I think that they're going to take this
holiday season, try and smash this stuff. I'm going to go 1441 for VIX and I'm going to,
and I like the V stocks flipping back over, back over VIX. I'm going to go with a 1551.

(59:00):
I got to say, I don't hate what you're putting down there, sir.
Talking a little bit of your book, but I'm okay with it. I'm okay with it in that sense,
because you're kind of talking mine too. But let's see, let's go out here now listeners.
Is it going to be as much of a vowel meltdown as meatball predicts? Well, I don't think any of us
would be mad at that unless you're just all along the upside, in which case maybe you would be.

(59:20):
But yeah, and that depends. Obviously, do we get this thing under grips? You know,
we have a little bit extra wrinkle now of a muskin company throwing their weight around a little bit.
So we'll see what happens out here. They in past is prologue. They usually get it done. They'll
probably get it done by, they don't go into the holidays with this thing hanging over their heads.
Certainly that would, that would not look good for all these guys going back to their constituencies

(59:41):
saying, Hey, we got nothing out of DC unless they really want to dig their heels in. So I think
they probably will have this done by our show this time next week as well. Then what is our
vol catalyst through the end of the year? Not much. You got to really look overseas for some of that
stuff at that point. So I'm going to say, yeah, we're at, we're still firming up at about a 19,
excuse me, 19 and a half right now. I'm going to say maybe not quite as optimistic as the meatball,

(01:00:02):
even though I wouldn't mind that coming to pass. I'm going to say 1578 for VIX. And then the obvious
question, does that V stocks premium persist? I'm going to say it does, but I'm not going to say
it's as insane as we've seen in the past. I'm going to say 1656 for V stocks. So there you go.

(01:00:24):
Listen, as there's your markets VIX this week, low the meatball 1441, the high Mr. Rich 1716,
and me as the tasty, delicious Goldilocks 1578, same deal for V stocks, meatball at the low 1551.
I am once again, the middle 1656 and rich taken the lead at 1766. See what we've got. We got some

(01:00:48):
1680 coming in in our chat. We got some other levels out there. So yeah, you want to play
along with the home game listeners? Hit us up today. The day the podcast goes live,
if you're listening on demand questions at the options insider.com, or of course,
hit us up on social media with your vol prediction. And if you get within a 10th of a point,
you too can win fabulous prizes. Let's go around the horn now. Mr. Meatball,

(01:01:11):
the folks want to talk as VIX or just general vol with you. Where should they go? What should they do?
Yeah, you can come to option pit.com and check out my VIX edge blog and stuff like that. Or just
follow me on Twitter at option pit. Got anything big going on for the holidays at option pit?
Anything cool? We're doing a, we're doing some special situations around this holiday season

(01:01:34):
in this ball, pop the next week. Should be a lot of fun. Special situation. Make sure to check us
out at option pit.com. Check them out. Option pit.com. Give them a follow while you're at it.
At option pit over there. Maybe throw the, throw the rock lobster a follow as well. You might have
amusing or two of you now and then at option vol on the old Twitter's and Mr. Rich, if they want
to keep abreast of all things, Hogwarts for derivatives traders, where should they go? What

(01:01:58):
should they do? You can follow me on Twitter at Excel Richard. That sub stack, my sub stack is
called stay vigilant. And that, you know, those are the two best places to find me or, you know,
you go, you go to the U of I website and then look, look up the derivatives and trading academy.
If you want to kind of follow us there too. Is the goal eventually to have maybe, you know,
tele classes that other folks can take who aren't at U of I. So they too, if they want to get a little

(01:02:22):
bit of their wand to work in at the Hogwarts, they can do it remotely, sir. The goal is to,
is to start an executive education certificate around that, but still have a little bit of work
to do on that. That will be great. That'd be good. We don't have a lot of those in the world of
options and derivatives. And the more of the merrier in the meantime, listeners follow him
on all of his various platforms at Excel Richard, all one word exe, e ll on the old Twitter to learn

(01:02:50):
more. Got some more coming in now. 1710 for option. God over here. 16. How old the queen? She's,
she's a pretty good 15 half. I'm sorry. I misread that 15 half. She's feeling a ball apocalypse.
Some 16 thirties. All right. A lot of, a lot of good markets out there, which makes the market
listeners get your, get your predictions in. And if you want a place to express that vol prediction,
public.com/vv again, literally the easiest landing page I've ever had to promote in nigh on 18 years

(01:03:18):
on this network, public.com/vv the place to go to kick the tires and light the fires. Give them a
thanks for supporting this network throughout the year on a variety of shows. You like these shows
coming to you. Publix, one of the folks to thank public.com/vv easy place to do it. And of course,
while you're supporting the folks who support this show, you know where to go. It's just urx.com/vstocks

(01:03:44):
to learn more about all things, V stocks. And of course the Euro stocks, 50 daily options. Russell
has that webinar coming up in early January. You're probably going to want to register for that.
Pretty cool stuff urx.com/vstocks to learn more. It's going to do it for us on the network for
this week, at least on the on demand side. But if you don't want your party to end, you want to come

(01:04:06):
back for a little bit more fun. You want to talk, I don't know, UVIX ratios and all sorts of other
wild trades. Check out options oddities coming up a little bit after this show. Only place to get it.
The options insider.com/pro. Trust me, it's a good one. It's a fun one if I do say so myself. So we'll
see you there in a little bit. Back again next Monday for the old OB. Then of course middle of

(01:04:29):
the week, some holidays. I'm not a monster. Not many people come in for the Wednesday and Thursday
shows. A nice little holiday hiatus for all of us. But we're back again on Friday to talk the week
that was vol with a little bit of volatility views. We'll see you then. Stay safe out there.
Everybody. The international volatility segment is brought to you by UREX. Home of Euro stocks,

(01:04:51):
V stocks, DAX and the German government bond based Eurobund Eurobabel. Euro shots derivatives.
UREX is the leading European derivatives exchange. Learn more about trading V stocks,
futures and options. The European volatility benchmark at www.urex.com/vstocks.

(01:05:21):
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(01:06:34):
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(01:07:02):
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