Gold $4,500 by yearend, is it even possible?

🌍 Global Markets Rundown

• Goldman Sachs suggests gold could plausibly hit $4,500/oz by year-end.
• Gold is currently around $3,200/oz, but volatility and uncertainty are driving prices higher.
• Gold miners are benefiting from the price surge, with big leverage showing up in earnings.
  • Example: Pan African Resources made $900/oz at $2,250; could make $2,900 at $3,250.
• Big upside still possible if gold just holds or drifts higher.
• SA gold stocks (YTD performance):
  • Pan African Resources +106%
  • Harmony +76%
  • AngloGold Ashanti* +72%
  • Gold Fields +30% (with mine-related issues)

Gold | Weekly chart |15 April 2025

📉 Recession Watch

• Larry Fink (BlackRock) & Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan): “US may already be in a recession.”
• Trump’s constant tariff changes add more uncertainty.
• Growth is slowing, and inflation is stubbornly high (risk of stagflation).
• Treasury buyers are hesitant—money is going into gold, not US 10-year bonds.
• China's potential bond moves could rattle the entire global system.

💸 Currency Check

• The Rand recovered from nearly R20/USD to around R18.75/USD.
• Driven by dollar weakness, global uncertainty, and DXY dipping below 100.
• Local support for ZAR remains tentative but improving.

📊 ETFs & Resources Rally

• Satrix RESI ETF* now ~50% gold miners, up ~44% YTD.
• Resource-driven tax windfalls (like in 2021/22) show how profitable miners benefit the broader economy.

📈 Local Market Highlights

• Purple Group* (EasyEquities) finally breaks out:
• Strong results: HEPS up 204%.
• Thrive initiative charging inactive accounts adds meaningful revenue.
• Stock rallied from 92c to 118c in just over a week.
• Possible end to aggressive selling pressure—more upside ahead?

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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