China and the Middle East: The Future in Three Scenarios

China's rapidly expanding presence in the Middle East has sparked a mix of anxiety and excitement, depending on one's perspective. Washington regards Beijing's support of Iran and the Palestinian cause, among other things, as key threats to its strategic interests. While Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and other regional actors see Beijing as a valuable economic partner.

A new book by two leading China-Mideast scholars, Mohamed Alsudairi at the Australian National University and Andrea Ghiselli from the University of Exeter, explores the future of Chinese engagement in the region by laying out three possible scenarios

🔹 Scenario 1: Continuity — China stays focused on trade and investment, without major security commitments.
🔹 Scenario 2: Expansion — Beijing and regional elites push for a deeper Chinese role in governance and security.
🔹 Scenario 3: Discord — mismatched expectations fuel uncertainty and instability.

Mohammed and Andrea join Eric to discuss their new book and which of the three forecasts they think is most likely to happen.

SHOW NOTES:

• Download a FREE copy of the book "Narratives of Sino-Middle Eastern Futures" by Mohammed Alsudairi and Andrea Ghiselli
• Follow the ChinaMed Project for complete coverage of Chinese engagement in the Mediterranean and Middle East regions: https://chinamed.substack.com/
• Subscribe to Andrea Ghiselli's Substack newsletter on China-Mideast relations: https://substack.com/@andreaghiselli

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