Geopolitics expert Peter Zeihan tells Guyon what New Zealand needs to do right now if it wants to survive the end of globalisation, why China's days are numbered, and who's going to win the US election.
Watch the video version of the episode here.
A frightening future awaits for much of the world.
That's the prediction of Peter Zeihan, a graduate of Otago University who has become a best selling author on geopolitics and international relations.
His book The End of the World is Just the Beginning was a New York Times best seller in 2022.
Guyon Espiner asked Peter Zeihan, two years on, with the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House, how does he see global tensions playing out and what might this mean for New Zealand?
Your book came out in 2022. Have you cheered up at all since then?
“No, because since the book came out, the Ukraine war has gotten hot and heavy, and we're seeing the beginnings of a very, very probably end of days-style trade dispute between the entire world and the Chinese.
“There are definitely some specifics here and there that have been a little bit more optimistic than I thought, but the bare bones, the idea that the structures that brought us everything in the last 75 years, that they're dying, unfortunately, that's pretty baked in at this point.”
One of the key planks that you write about is the end of globalisation. Why will that happen?
“At the end of World War 2, the Americans found themselves looking across the plains of Europe at the red armies and realising this was not a fight we could win, we needed millions of people to not just stand up, but to stand between the US and the Soviet army.
“And since the Europeans had just been through the most horrific war in human history, getting them to sign up for an open-ended conflict was going to require some severe inducement.
“Globalisation was [the United States’] answer.
“We would send our Navy out - the only Navy to survive the war - and patrol the open ocean so that anyone could send any cargo anywhere, import anything from anywhere, access any market anywhere, if in exchange, you would sign up for the Cold War.
“And that gave us the world that we know.
“But never ever, ever forget that it was always a byproduct of an American security plan that honestly has now been outdated for 30 years.
"[In addition,] as we all globalised, we also industrialised and urbanised.
"When you live on a farm, kids are free labour, but when you move into a condo in a city, kids are an expense…
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