Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Now as we know, the polls are opening today. It's
going to be an interesting day, to say the least,
an interesting couple of weeks. I think it's safe to
say it. I'm very pleased. Joining me in the studio
right now is the ABC News political reporter Tom Morgan.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Good morning to.
Speaker 3 (00:15):
You, Katie, Morning listeners, and Well.
Speaker 1 (00:17):
Nine News Darwin's executive producer Kathleen Gazola, Good morning to
your lovely to have you both in the studio and
well poles opening this morning.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Done a bit of a wreki pass there yet you
two from pass?
Speaker 3 (00:30):
Oh yeah, they're out.
Speaker 4 (00:31):
All the core flutes and stuff are out at the
front of the entertainment center down the road, so it
looks like it's all kicking off.
Speaker 5 (00:37):
My compen was very busy with I'm pretty sure plenty
of candidates outside as well. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Right, it's going to be interesting, isn't it.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
Now?
Speaker 2 (00:43):
What are your thoughts if.
Speaker 1 (00:44):
You turn up early to vote, you, well, obviously you
know who you're voting for.
Speaker 2 (00:47):
You're not a swinging voter.
Speaker 5 (00:49):
Yeah, those are certainly the people who have already made
up their minds and not the ones that each political
party are targeting to try and get across the line.
But I think Territorians are very supportive of early voting,
Like it's almost more than fifty percent that have turned
out early in the past couple, isn't that? I think?
Speaker 4 (01:07):
Yeah, suspicion this time is that, you know a lot
of the vote will be early voting, and there will
be very few people who vote on the Saturday next week.
Speaker 5 (01:14):
So actually, when you don't get a democracy sausage, you
surely introducing those well, and there I guess the interesting
thing is, you know, many will say that if you
turn out early to vote, or what kind of sign
does it signal?
Speaker 1 (01:28):
If plenty of people do turn out early to vote,
does it signal that there's a.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Change in the air. Does it not? Nonetheless, the Labor
Party is.
Speaker 1 (01:36):
Still announcing that they're going to be putting one point
four million dollars into private security today right across the
Northern territory.
Speaker 2 (01:43):
So they are clearly.
Speaker 1 (01:46):
Still trying to, you know, to clench some of those
final votes.
Speaker 4 (01:50):
I think I think it shows that the Laura and
Ord issue, it's I think Labor has really tried to
make grab that issue and sort of take it off
the COLP and we saw that with the five hundred
and seven many million dollars for police, they're trying to
beat the COLP at their own game here and try
to take a bit of momentum off the COLP, particularly
in this last two weeks, because I think that is
the issue as we all know, that will decide this election.
Speaker 5 (02:12):
But the problem is is that we are obviously early voting,
so yes, there might be two weeks, but you potentially
lose a lot of those people that could have maybe
been convinced otherwise. And what Labor I think personally, this
is only my opinion, is trying to do, especially after
listening to the Chief Minister this morning speak to you
(02:33):
that yes she's been Chief Minister for the past six months,
so you know it's a changing of the guard. They
still have eight years behind them, which works against them.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
And this is the tact that I'm finding really quite interesting.
And I think that we.
Speaker 1 (02:45):
Really saw this last week obviously throughout the debate that
we'd had in the studio, and I know then press
conferences were held by both of those political parties afterwards,
and you're really seeing evil Al presenting that she's a
safe set of hands. You know, she's only been the
chief minister for what was it, how many days one
hundred I can't remember, however many days two hundred and
fifty days or something like that. And she's a safe
(03:07):
set of hands. And then Leah fin Kia a really
running down the path of if you are happy with
the way that the Northern Territory is going right now,
vote Labor. If you're not, we'll vote for change and
vote for the COLP.
Speaker 5 (03:20):
And Eva is definitely hamming up that whole. I'm an
experienced set of hands because she's been a minister since
Labor has been in power. But a lot of people
forget that Leah has been in Parliament since twenty twelve
and then she obviously was one of a two person
team when they got wiped out in twenty sixteen, so
(03:42):
she has had to really be in a leadership role
of some sort for a very long time. And you know,
she has helped bring the COLP back from.
Speaker 2 (03:53):
Dese mantension just about it.
Speaker 5 (03:54):
I don't think she gets a lot of credit for that.
Speaker 4 (03:57):
And Eva's argument about you know, this is where the
devil you know, don't trust the devil, you don't know,
that's the argument they're putting it for very true.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
The problem with that.
Speaker 4 (04:05):
Argument is that if that argument were to work, you'd
never see power change hands right, Voters will make a change,
like will vote for change if there is an attitude
of mood that things aren't working.
Speaker 3 (04:16):
Now.
Speaker 4 (04:16):
I don't know what the mood is out there in
terms of is this like, is there an actual mood?
Do voters have baseball bats so they wanting to go
out there and change the government?
Speaker 2 (04:25):
Yeah, going out in force.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
I do feel as though there could be a fairly
quiet ground swell at the moment, certainly, you know, as
I know the two of you do as well. I
speak to a lot of normal people every single day,
not only through this show, but every day when I'm
out at sport, every day, when I'm at various activities
with my children or with my husband, you know, out
(04:50):
at different community events, and by far and beyond, the
biggest issue that is raised is crime. It is, and
it's not even just the crime issue. It's the personal
and people sort of saying, well, I don't let my
children go on that school bus, but I don't let
them on that bus because I am concerned about the
issue of safety.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
So I do feel as.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
Though there is quite a strong undercurrent of that sense.
But how deep that runs, I guess remains to be
seen and in which electorates remains to be seen.
Speaker 4 (05:19):
And I suspect that you know, a talking to people,
and there are people who really want change. There are
also people who have a bit of satisfaction with both parties.
They are so fed up with the political process on
both sides. And I'm not saying that's going to be
a huge factor in this election, but I think it
is something that both parties need to be aware of
(05:39):
because ultimately, we've seen results in other parts of the country,
and we've seen results all over the world where the
sort of de facto two party system is being challenged.
And I'm not saying that there's going to be like
a massive ground swell here, but you know, it is
something that I think both parties need to be aware
of that they need to start crawing back some faith
from voters.
Speaker 1 (05:58):
Look, I reckon that sense might be stronger in the
territory had we not had Territory Alliance run last time.
And I think that people, you know, maybe put a
bit more faith in territory Alliance in their early days
at the last Northern Territory election. But then we sort
of saw some announcements from them that were very much
based on what they thought were popular decisions around things like,
(06:20):
you know, around things like fracking and and I can't
think of others off the top of my head, but
they did have an impact in some of those seats.
And so absolutely, I reckon what you're saying there is right, Tom,
Particularly I reckon in seats like Fanny Bay, you know,
the Greens could get strip quite a strong vote. And
then what that means when it comes down to those
preferences is anybody's guests.
Speaker 5 (06:41):
And I mean in the Northern Territory in particular, the
seats are so small, so each individual candidate can easily
make it around their electorate door knocking, potentially a couple
of times depending on how early they are pre selected.
So we've seen from several local members that have huge majorities,
(07:03):
like Nicole Manison, like Natasha Files, Kate Warden Leafanocchiaro, that
they are very good grassroots members. They are out in
the community, their people see them, and that delivers at
the ballot box. And that I think is potentially the
big difference in the Northern territory that is unique to
it that if you are a hard working member, you're
(07:25):
going to get rewarded for that. And so as you mentioned,
and I don't know whether this is a good thing
to use, but like I think it was a phrase
coined by Scott Morrison. It's those quiet Australians, those quiet Territorians.
They aren't out there on the Facebook pages or coming
up to each electorate at each candidate's face and telling
them what for they I support you y. It's those
(07:47):
quiet Territorians that are just watching and making up their minds. Now.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
One of the things I always remember, and I hope
he doesn't mind me paraphrasing this, but one thing that
Damien Hale told me many years ago, it's the only
thing you can be sure of is the person who
tells you they're not voting for you to your face.
And I think that's a really like to me, that's
a really good point. A lot of people will be
polite to your face, particularly if your door knocking right
(08:11):
like you come to their house, unless you're really angry.
Speaker 4 (08:14):
And that's something that I think a lot of the
local people, a lot of the candidates out there are
really cognizant of is and they're probably being prepped on
this is that people will say that they're going to
vote for you, but they don't mean it.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
They just sort of they want to be polite on you. Yeah,
and doorstop, it'll be.
Speaker 4 (08:29):
Like, oh, you know, yeah, you seem nice.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
So I just want to go back to the point
about experience and about the press conference on Friday, because
I know that the Chief Minister, Evil Lawler, had held
a press conference on Friday and was talking about the experience.
Speaker 2 (08:44):
That her team has.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
I just felt that it was quite ironic then the
fact that she had Brent Potter and Mark Monaghan behind her,
who have both only been ministers for a short period
of time, and was talking about their experience team. And
I did just have a little chuckle to myself because
I thought, well, hang on, a sect have been ministers
for five minutes, so can you really say, you know,
can you really draw on that experience?
Speaker 5 (09:07):
I pointed that out to her at the press conference,
because she was very very hard on that point about
her being experienced versus Leah's inexperience, and that Leah would
just be influenced by the powerful, faceless men behind her.
In the sea. She as if she'll be a puppet
with the strings pulled a bit off. Yeah. Admittedly, myself
(09:30):
and the ABC reporter Lily and who were there were
a bit like, oh, that's come across in the very
wrong way. And I don't think she meant it in
the sense of putting down a fellow woman, but it
was I mentioned to her as like, you're talking about experience. Yes,
you've been a minister since you came into government. But
the two behind her, I mean Brent Potter, how long
(09:50):
has he been in parliamurriculous yep, and then Mark Monahan
as well, both of them only becoming ministers when Eva
took the Chief ministership. So it was of a bit
jarring in that sense. But obviously Labor must have some
kind of indications from some of their foliage about who
were the popular people within their team, because regularly Tom
(10:11):
and I will go to a press conference and they'll
be Brent Potter or they'll be Mark Monahan. More often
than not, the two of them are the most that
are rolled out, and then occasionally you'll see some of
the other members.
Speaker 4 (10:22):
And it is interesting as well that the two women
who were sort of I guess the two right hand
women of Michael Gunner, Natasha Files and Nicole Madison. Nicole
Madison stepping down at the selection and Natasha Files is
nowhere to be seen. She's on the back bench. You know,
you've got a lot of experience. They're the Deputy Chief
Minister and the Health Minister through COVID not really being
(10:42):
the public face of labor at all at this content.
Speaker 5 (10:44):
And you don't see the Deputy Chief Minister at the moment,
Chancey Pace, although he was in Darwin this weekend.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
I did see ministerial duties the lead with you boat.
Speaker 5 (10:54):
You don't see the Health Minister out.
Speaker 1 (10:55):
Yeah, very interesting, but look I'm interested to hear from
our listeners this morning. Zero four double nine seven double
one three six zero. Ministerial experience or real world experience?
Speaker 2 (11:05):
What do you prefer? I don't know.
Speaker 5 (11:06):
Run into the difference that both parties are trotting up,
that THECLP is trotting out. She's talking about that. You know,
her team has made up of people of real world
experience that have other jobs that they can bring in
to Parliament to do the jobs that needed to be
delivered because they understand how the outside works. Outside world
works rather than just being a political staffer on the
(11:28):
fifth floor, a political hack. As they say, well, look
we might.
Speaker 2 (11:32):
Have a look at the different seats. What do you reckon?
Speaker 1 (11:35):
You're both keen to have a little focus on the
seats and I know that there are some that the
major political parties and indeed the Greens and Independents are
going to be focusing.
Speaker 2 (11:43):
On as winnable.
Speaker 1 (11:45):
First, looking at Arafura, we know that Manuel Brown from
the ALP currently holds our Refura. He has got a
Yanya Thompson who is running against a running against him
for the COLP.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
Look, I don't know. I feel like it's probably going
to be a pretty safe.
Speaker 4 (12:02):
One Manuel has as I understand it connections to both
Matting Greta on the mainland and also Teewee Ireland communities
as well has connections to both.
Speaker 3 (12:11):
So I can't imagine labor being under threat there.
Speaker 5 (12:13):
No, I agree with that.
Speaker 1 (12:14):
Yeah, let's have a look at Ara Lewin. This is
indeed going to be an interesting one. Robin Lamley had
only won it on about forty seven votes if I
recall correctly from the last election. I could be wrong,
could be one or two different, but she has well
four people up against her this time round. I've spoken
to a couple of people in Alice who have said
(12:34):
that they feel as though she's pretty safe. That she
has been a very vocal and active local member.
Speaker 5 (12:39):
So yeah, I will I would be very hard pressed
to see Robin losing this. That would probably be the
biggest upset for me if she got.
Speaker 3 (12:47):
Barely campaign there.
Speaker 4 (12:48):
They pre selected someone on literally the last day before
nominations closed, like they haven't run a campaign there because
I suspect that possibly after the election they might want
to bring Rob well, they might want Rob on side.
Speaker 1 (13:01):
Now, yeah, I think that's a very good point to make.
I think that if we and we might get to
that after but if we were to see a minority
government in some way, that is where those independents are
going to become so very important. Let's head across to Arnham.
We know Selena Rubo, the current health spinister, up against
in a new gumbaler.
Speaker 5 (13:21):
I do apologize if pronounces the CP.
Speaker 4 (13:25):
He ran in twenty sixteen for the COLP and was defeated,
but then he ran us an independent in twenty twenty
and gave Selena Yubo a real run for money. I
think it was very close last time, so the CLP
pre selecting him does make for an interesting contest. I
don't know if it's you know, maybe because he ran
as an independent that he did so well.
Speaker 5 (13:44):
Yeah, the Bushets are always very difficult to call early,
I think because of obviously the low voter turnout within
remote regions and remote poling. But yeah, those are definitely
interesting to see. What might there if there is a
swing in the bush could be determinant.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
Now a very close seat from one which everybody's going
to be keeping quite the eye on, I think, is Barclay.
It is currently held by the COLP Steve Edgington. The
ALP is saying that they've got a very strong candidate
in Lizzy Hogan, who has got quite a bit of
support out in the bush Way.
Speaker 4 (14:17):
Yeah, and Labor was saying someone within Labor was saying
that the seat now has sort of been redistributed in
a way where there's now more First Nations voters in
that electorate right for the first time, and so that
might make Steve Edgington's job a bit more difficult. He
only won it by five votes, as I recall it.
Speaker 2 (14:33):
Blust collection it was really tight.
Speaker 3 (14:35):
It could be a really interesting contest.
Speaker 4 (14:37):
I suspect that it's probably safer for Steve than say
other seats in the Bush like Mamateurra.
Speaker 5 (14:45):
Yeah, incumbency plays a lot because you have had the resources,
especially in those larger seats, to be able to travel
around and be seen and make those extra connections that
perhaps you didn't have before.
Speaker 1 (14:57):
Now a couple of the really interesting ones I think
are going to be out in Palmerston and having a
look at Blaine. It is currently held by former Labor
Party member now independent Mark Turner. He's up against Denny
Evely for the ALP and Matthew Cool for the CLP.
Now again, this one was pretty tight last time round,
but on preferences and I believe even on the primary
(15:21):
vote in the end that Mark Turner did edge in
front of Matthew Cool. Look, I think this is I
think this seat is well and truly at play.
Speaker 5 (15:29):
Yeah, definitely. I mean we historically see Palmerston as a
more conservative leaning kind of region. In the past that
was the CLP heartland so to speak. In the northern
suburbs were ALP that they got punished, The CLP got
punished in twenty sixteen because of that chaotic government. So
(15:51):
that's where later picked up several seats. So you have
to question, obviously, with crime being such a major factor
in this election, that perhaps they are pretty getting pretty
confident with that their chances are getting better.
Speaker 4 (16:05):
I'd say even I remember we talked to Mark Turner
a couple of weeks ago and he even he said
it would be very difficult for him to win the
seats soul.
Speaker 3 (16:14):
You know, he might be being modest, but.
Speaker 5 (16:18):
Played Matthew Kurl stood last year for the cop last election,
and from my understanding, he really kind of hasn't stopped. Yeah,
it's kind of been a very visible presence. But also
to Mark Turner, he's obviously been a very active player
in his electorate as well. I understand he does a
lot of patrolling himself, obviously being a former police officer,
(16:41):
and you know out in Palmerston as a defense police
kind of enforcements.
Speaker 2 (16:46):
Were in Palmerston.
Speaker 1 (16:47):
We might have a quick look at Drysdale, Evil Laula
of course taking on Clinton. How we now know that
there is an independent running as well as Cindy.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
Roberts, and yeah, look I think this is.
Speaker 1 (16:59):
Going to be a really interesting from some Labor inside,
as I am told that they have got some concerns
out there.
Speaker 4 (17:04):
Yeah, this is one that I think, if it does
go to Colp's way, will be the story of the
night because it really if the Chief Minister loses her
own seat, you know, it's pretty much game over for
Labor in terms of forming government.
Speaker 3 (17:17):
I think it will be.
Speaker 4 (17:18):
Yeah, it could be fifty one to forty nine in
terms of how things play out there.
Speaker 5 (17:23):
It's not un called for for the you know, a
party to lose their leader at the election. Obviously Terry
Mills lost his seat and he was very popular member
in Blaine. Adam Charles lost his seat when the COP
wiped out. So it's not beyond the.
Speaker 1 (17:39):
We're going to have we'll power through a little bit here, Brakling,
How do we think that one's going to go Josh
Burgle in the CLP's current sitting member CP. Yeah, look,
I'm I'm thinking it's going to be a tough challenge
for him to lose that seat. But any anybody Scarce,
I guess when you go to Brennan Murrayquitte Claire boothby
taking on Tony Severs again, I would say that very clear.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
Is probably going to hold that one.
Speaker 1 (18:02):
Tiny a lovely bloke, but I do think that the
reality of the crime issue out there is going to have.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
A big impact.
Speaker 5 (18:08):
And she beat Tony two.
Speaker 1 (18:09):
Yeah last time around Casharina. Now I'm told that this
is going to be an interesting one. I would have
thought that it would be a pretty safe seat for
the Labor Party. Some telling me that Coda Patel for
the CLP is a that he is one to watch.
That he apparently speaks fluent Greek, so out in those
suburbs he's quite popular on the doors.
Speaker 2 (18:31):
But that's you know, I guess you don't know.
Speaker 4 (18:35):
I think the cop have only won one seat or
two seats in the Northern suburbs since two thousand and one.
Someone can correct me. So if they are winning cash
Arena on Saturday next week, that's going to be.
Speaker 1 (18:47):
Well yeah, they held no Yeah and Peter Styles that was.
Speaker 4 (18:55):
The only two times, yes, that they've had a seat
in the Northern suburb.
Speaker 1 (19:00):
Look. One of the other interesting ones, some would say
not interesting, but I think it's going to be one
that could be at play again is the seat of
Daily Duran Young taking on Chris Cibtrees from the COLP.
Now Duran obviously in that seat has been since the
by election the last Northern Territory election. It was actually
won by the CLP. It just deppends I guess whether well.
Speaker 2 (19:22):
Who you know, if people turn out.
Speaker 5 (19:23):
To varnish is the biggest thing in those areas. Like, yeah,
you look at how the by election result went, but
you know by elections and general elections are very different.
Speaker 2 (19:33):
Yeah, hey, what do we reckon in Fanny Bay?
Speaker 5 (19:35):
Oh, that's going to be an interesting one. Certainly, Brent's
boosted his profile since he was elected. He didn't get
the first preference votes, he was helped across the line
for the Greens, which potentially might be the case again
in this instance. Yeah, just depends on the local issues.
I think, yeah, well it's out.
Speaker 4 (19:52):
Of Green's probably the most confident there, but I don't
think they've really don't think he has well.
Speaker 1 (19:56):
And look, we'll focus on that seat throughout this week
as well. I know that's even the secure staying on
there around Perrap is a big issue for those that
live in Fanny Bay and also you know the there
at the at the Fanny Bay shops as well. People
have had some real issues. Now Fong Limb it's another
one that I think is well and truly up for grabs.
Mark Monahan the ALP is the incumbent member taking on
(20:21):
Tanzil Raman Rahman, I should say Amy un Independent and
Simon Niblock for the nt Greens.
Speaker 4 (20:29):
I the CLP have been campaigning hard there. I know
someone who's had Leah and Tanzil on her door twice
in the last couple of weeks, so I think they're
playing for it.
Speaker 3 (20:39):
They're making a play for it.
Speaker 2 (20:42):
Interesting.
Speaker 5 (20:42):
It was a bit of a red distribution there of
the electoral boundary.
Speaker 1 (20:46):
I think there is yes to some degree. I think
it's actually taking in a part of Berrima as like
a part somehow a part of Barrima, So that will
be an interesting one.
Speaker 2 (20:55):
Goida, what are our thoughts?
Speaker 5 (20:57):
Well, Obviously the Independent out there she has been backed
by a Keysier, so that is a big potentially factor
out there. But I don't know. Sorry, Kesey, I'm sure
you're listening, but I just can't help but think that
the CLP are a really good chance there. I think
there are claims of some dirty tactics playing out there
(21:17):
as well.
Speaker 4 (21:18):
Yeah, Belinda seems very confident, but you know that can
always be sort of misleading. Yeah, but you know, it's
one of those ones that will know on the night,
but I'm not sure.
Speaker 1 (21:28):
Yeah, you just never know, all right, So I think
it's safe to say that Chancey Paike is going to
be safe out there at.
Speaker 2 (21:35):
Gordia yep.
Speaker 1 (21:36):
And then in Johnson. Now this is going to be
I think a very interesting one the Alps. Joel Bowden
currently holds that seat, but a lot of people keeping
a very close eye on Justin David Susie Independent.
Speaker 4 (21:47):
Yeah, she is at least you know, if you go
to the Rapid Creek Markets on a Sunday, she has
a whole shop front there. She has seven volunteers out
talking to people. From my anecdotal questioning of people there,
it doesn't seem like Joel has actually been at the
markets very much until the last couple of weeks and
just going around. I know that, you know, it's a
it's a different than the electric sort of diverse. But
(22:09):
I know that in Jingly the core flutes are out.
I remember counting in the street of ten houses, five
houses had Justine Davis core flutes on them. So you know,
I'm not saying that to issue in It could be
that you know, it's a safe Labor retain, but it
really depends on if Justine gets into second spot on
first preferences.
Speaker 5 (22:29):
Yeah, I think this is probably the best chance for
an independent, and that the circumstance of someone new coming in.
Speaker 2 (22:34):
Hey, Karama, that's going to be an interesting one as well.
Speaker 5 (22:36):
I think I can't help but feel like Karama has
the biggest factor with crime playing into it, and potentially
the biggest it's the biggest one at threat for Labor.
Speaker 3 (22:45):
I think it's going to be.
Speaker 4 (22:46):
If there's one seat that does fall to Labor on
the night in the northern suburbs, it's going to be Karama.
Speaker 3 (22:51):
I think that's that's the most vulnerable place for them.
Speaker 1 (22:57):
We'll go through these ones quite quickly, Catherine, I'm thinking
the CELP will retain.
Speaker 5 (23:01):
Joe's got that in the bag.
Speaker 1 (23:03):
Malka obviously we know Yinya yep and up against ol Fanning. Interestingly,
from the CELP, I believe that his name was listed.
I don't know whether that was a mistake or whether
he's whether he.
Speaker 2 (23:13):
Has whether the CELP is popped.
Speaker 5 (23:15):
I think he was one of one of those last minutes.
Speaker 2 (23:18):
Yeah, yeah, Namajira. People are keeping it eye on this.
Speaker 4 (23:23):
But if I think Namajerra is I've heard that the
SELP is nervous about nama Jira. Now that's because, yeah,
apparently there's some good campaigning on the ground from Labor.
I would say that Namajera is more likely of that
one and Barkley to fall to Labor.
Speaker 3 (23:40):
But yeah, I don't like.
Speaker 1 (23:41):
Peop whether they do or not, Yeah, it remains to
be seen. Nelson, I think I do think that Jerra
Mayley is safe out there. We do know that Beverly
Rata here are very strong independent running against the ALP
president Anthony Vines.
Speaker 5 (23:54):
And he was a late minute call up.
Speaker 1 (23:56):
Yeah, another one and then Nightcliff Natasha Files taking on
a number of number of candidates in Nightcliff.
Speaker 5 (24:02):
I think Farsi will still come away with the win,
but I think it will carve into her majority a bit,
which for her probably is a bit of a disappointment
how strong she's held that.
Speaker 4 (24:14):
You look at the last federal election and the results there,
the Greens came second at the Nightcliff polling booth, so
that could be the one where that could be one
where the Greens do potentially fall into second place. You'd
have to expect that even if Labor lose every other seat,
Natasha would hold on.
Speaker 1 (24:32):
If they lose Nightcliff, then they can expect a total
NA wipeout. I think it's safe to say Port Darwin now,
I think this is one that the CLP is going
to pick up.
Speaker 2 (24:42):
I could be wrong, but I think it is.
Speaker 3 (24:43):
I had someone within within Labor say that they suspect
that that's.
Speaker 5 (24:48):
Going to be a CLP game, and that would have
been a CLP one in twenty twenty if it wasn't
for Territory Alliance anyway.
Speaker 1 (24:53):
Yep. And then of course Sanderson Kate Warden the current
sitting member and has been, you know, whether people like
or not, a very strong local member. Yeah.
Speaker 5 (25:02):
I used to live in that electorate and constantly got
letter box by Kate because I wasn't at home when
she was door knocking. But yes, she constantly is out
in the electorate and so I would be surprised if
she didn't keep that very quickly.
Speaker 1 (25:16):
A Lea Faro I think is safe in Spilett. And
then of course Wanguri the last one Schlock Shama up
against Stolly Carlson, Graham Sawyer and Andrew Coates for the Greens.
Speaker 5 (25:25):
Yeah, this is going to be shaping up as an
interesting one. I can't help but feel like Labour's probably
got it. But it's so nice incumb and see, losing
an incumbent person like Nicole Madison is a big thing
to lose for Labor. So, you know, with a big
defense personnel out there, crime still being an issue across
(25:47):
the board.
Speaker 4 (25:48):
And Graham Sawyer does potentially have that sort of same
has the potential to do that thing that Territory Alliance
did and you know in Port Darwin and be here
spoiler because he does have name recognition. He's a film
the Lord Mayor in Darwin, so there is the chance
that some funny stuff could happen there.
Speaker 1 (26:03):
Well, look, we're going to have to leave it there,
but we might try and catch up with you both
again next week at some point, if that's possible. It's
been lovely to have you both in the studio. Thank
you for your insights this morning. Kathleen Gazola from nine
News do you And Thomas Morgan from the ABC, thank you.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
We'll talk to you soon.
Now as we know, the polls are opening today. It's
going to be an interesting day, to say the least,
an interesting couple of weeks. I think it's safe to
say it. I'm very pleased. Joining me in the studio
right now is the ABC News political reporter Tom Morgan.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Good morning to.
Speaker 3 (00:15):
You, Katie, Morning listeners, and Well.
Speaker 1 (00:17):
Nine News Darwin's executive producer Kathleen Gazola, Good morning to
your lovely to have you both in the studio and
well poles opening this morning.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Done a bit of a wreki pass there yet you
two from pass?
Speaker 3 (00:30):
Oh yeah, they're out.
Speaker 4 (00:31):
All the core flutes and stuff are out at the
front of the entertainment center down the road, so it
looks like it's all kicking off.
Speaker 5 (00:37):
My compen was very busy with I'm pretty sure plenty
of candidates outside as well. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Right, it's going to be interesting, isn't it.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
Now?
Speaker 2 (00:43):
What are your thoughts if.
Speaker 1 (00:44):
You turn up early to vote, you, well, obviously you
know who you're voting for.
Speaker 2 (00:47):
You're not a swinging voter.
Speaker 5 (00:49):
Yeah, those are certainly the people who have already made
up their minds and not the ones that each political
party are targeting to try and get across the line.
But I think Territorians are very supportive of early voting,
Like it's almost more than fifty percent that have turned
out early in the past couple, isn't that? I think?
Speaker 4 (01:07):
Yeah, suspicion this time is that, you know a lot
of the vote will be early voting, and there will
be very few people who vote on the Saturday next week.
Speaker 5 (01:14):
So actually, when you don't get a democracy sausage, you
surely introducing those well, and there I guess the interesting
thing is, you know, many will say that if you
turn out early to vote, or what kind of sign
does it signal?
Speaker 1 (01:28):
If plenty of people do turn out early to vote,
does it signal that there's a.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Change in the air. Does it not? Nonetheless, the Labor
Party is.
Speaker 1 (01:36):
Still announcing that they're going to be putting one point
four million dollars into private security today right across the
Northern territory.
Speaker 2 (01:43):
So they are clearly.
Speaker 1 (01:46):
Still trying to, you know, to clench some of those
final votes.
Speaker 4 (01:50):
I think I think it shows that the Laura and
Ord issue, it's I think Labor has really tried to
make grab that issue and sort of take it off
the COLP and we saw that with the five hundred
and seven many million dollars for police, they're trying to
beat the COLP at their own game here and try
to take a bit of momentum off the COLP, particularly
in this last two weeks, because I think that is
the issue as we all know, that will decide this election.
Speaker 5 (02:12):
But the problem is is that we are obviously early voting,
so yes, there might be two weeks, but you potentially
lose a lot of those people that could have maybe
been convinced otherwise. And what Labor I think personally, this
is only my opinion, is trying to do, especially after
listening to the Chief Minister this morning speak to you
(02:33):
that yes she's been Chief Minister for the past six months,
so you know it's a changing of the guard. They
still have eight years behind them, which works against them.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
And this is the tact that I'm finding really quite interesting.
And I think that we.
Speaker 1 (02:45):
Really saw this last week obviously throughout the debate that
we'd had in the studio, and I know then press
conferences were held by both of those political parties afterwards,
and you're really seeing evil Al presenting that she's a
safe set of hands. You know, she's only been the
chief minister for what was it, how many days one
hundred I can't remember, however many days two hundred and
fifty days or something like that. And she's a safe
(03:07):
set of hands. And then Leah fin Kia a really
running down the path of if you are happy with
the way that the Northern Territory is going right now,
vote Labor. If you're not, we'll vote for change and
vote for the COLP.
Speaker 5 (03:20):
And Eva is definitely hamming up that whole. I'm an
experienced set of hands because she's been a minister since
Labor has been in power. But a lot of people
forget that Leah has been in Parliament since twenty twelve
and then she obviously was one of a two person
team when they got wiped out in twenty sixteen, so
(03:42):
she has had to really be in a leadership role
of some sort for a very long time. And you know,
she has helped bring the COLP back from.
Speaker 2 (03:53):
Dese mantension just about it.
Speaker 5 (03:54):
I don't think she gets a lot of credit for that.
Speaker 4 (03:57):
And Eva's argument about you know, this is where the
devil you know, don't trust the devil, you don't know,
that's the argument they're putting it for very true.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
The problem with that.
Speaker 4 (04:05):
Argument is that if that argument were to work, you'd
never see power change hands right, Voters will make a change,
like will vote for change if there is an attitude
of mood that things aren't working.
Speaker 3 (04:16):
Now.
Speaker 4 (04:16):
I don't know what the mood is out there in
terms of is this like, is there an actual mood?
Do voters have baseball bats so they wanting to go
out there and change the government?
Speaker 2 (04:25):
Yeah, going out in force.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
I do feel as though there could be a fairly
quiet ground swell at the moment, certainly, you know, as
I know the two of you do as well. I
speak to a lot of normal people every single day,
not only through this show, but every day when I'm
out at sport, every day, when I'm at various activities
with my children or with my husband, you know, out
(04:50):
at different community events, and by far and beyond, the
biggest issue that is raised is crime. It is, and
it's not even just the crime issue. It's the personal
and people sort of saying, well, I don't let my
children go on that school bus, but I don't let
them on that bus because I am concerned about the
issue of safety.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
So I do feel as.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
Though there is quite a strong undercurrent of that sense.
But how deep that runs, I guess remains to be
seen and in which electorates remains to be seen.
Speaker 4 (05:19):
And I suspect that you know, a talking to people,
and there are people who really want change. There are
also people who have a bit of satisfaction with both parties.
They are so fed up with the political process on
both sides. And I'm not saying that's going to be
a huge factor in this election, but I think it
is something that both parties need to be aware of
(05:39):
because ultimately, we've seen results in other parts of the country,
and we've seen results all over the world where the
sort of de facto two party system is being challenged.
And I'm not saying that there's going to be like
a massive ground swell here, but you know, it is
something that I think both parties need to be aware
of that they need to start crawing back some faith
from voters.
Speaker 1 (05:58):
Look, I reckon that sense might be stronger in the
territory had we not had Territory Alliance run last time.
And I think that people, you know, maybe put a
bit more faith in territory Alliance in their early days
at the last Northern Territory election. But then we sort
of saw some announcements from them that were very much
based on what they thought were popular decisions around things like,
(06:20):
you know, around things like fracking and and I can't
think of others off the top of my head, but
they did have an impact in some of those seats.
And so absolutely, I reckon what you're saying there is right, Tom,
Particularly I reckon in seats like Fanny Bay, you know,
the Greens could get strip quite a strong vote. And
then what that means when it comes down to those
preferences is anybody's guests.
Speaker 5 (06:41):
And I mean in the Northern Territory in particular, the
seats are so small, so each individual candidate can easily
make it around their electorate door knocking, potentially a couple
of times depending on how early they are pre selected.
So we've seen from several local members that have huge majorities,
(07:03):
like Nicole Manison, like Natasha Files, Kate Warden Leafanocchiaro, that
they are very good grassroots members. They are out in
the community, their people see them, and that delivers at
the ballot box. And that I think is potentially the
big difference in the Northern territory that is unique to
it that if you are a hard working member, you're
(07:25):
going to get rewarded for that. And so as you mentioned,
and I don't know whether this is a good thing
to use, but like I think it was a phrase
coined by Scott Morrison. It's those quiet Australians, those quiet Territorians.
They aren't out there on the Facebook pages or coming
up to each electorate at each candidate's face and telling
them what for they I support you y. It's those
(07:47):
quiet Territorians that are just watching and making up their minds. Now.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
One of the things I always remember, and I hope
he doesn't mind me paraphrasing this, but one thing that
Damien Hale told me many years ago, it's the only
thing you can be sure of is the person who
tells you they're not voting for you to your face.
And I think that's a really like to me, that's
a really good point. A lot of people will be
polite to your face, particularly if your door knocking right
(08:11):
like you come to their house, unless you're really angry.
Speaker 4 (08:14):
And that's something that I think a lot of the
local people, a lot of the candidates out there are
really cognizant of is and they're probably being prepped on
this is that people will say that they're going to
vote for you, but they don't mean it.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
They just sort of they want to be polite on you. Yeah,
and doorstop, it'll be.
Speaker 4 (08:29):
Like, oh, you know, yeah, you seem nice.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
So I just want to go back to the point
about experience and about the press conference on Friday, because
I know that the Chief Minister, Evil Lawler, had held
a press conference on Friday and was talking about the experience.
Speaker 2 (08:44):
That her team has.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
I just felt that it was quite ironic then the
fact that she had Brent Potter and Mark Monaghan behind her,
who have both only been ministers for a short period
of time, and was talking about their experience team. And
I did just have a little chuckle to myself because
I thought, well, hang on, a sect have been ministers
for five minutes, so can you really say, you know,
can you really draw on that experience?
Speaker 5 (09:07):
I pointed that out to her at the press conference,
because she was very very hard on that point about
her being experienced versus Leah's inexperience, and that Leah would
just be influenced by the powerful, faceless men behind her.
In the sea. She as if she'll be a puppet
with the strings pulled a bit off. Yeah. Admittedly, myself
(09:30):
and the ABC reporter Lily and who were there were
a bit like, oh, that's come across in the very
wrong way. And I don't think she meant it in
the sense of putting down a fellow woman, but it
was I mentioned to her as like, you're talking about experience. Yes,
you've been a minister since you came into government. But
the two behind her, I mean Brent Potter, how long
(09:50):
has he been in parliamurriculous yep, and then Mark Monahan
as well, both of them only becoming ministers when Eva
took the Chief ministership. So it was of a bit
jarring in that sense. But obviously Labor must have some
kind of indications from some of their foliage about who
were the popular people within their team, because regularly Tom
(10:11):
and I will go to a press conference and they'll
be Brent Potter or they'll be Mark Monahan. More often
than not, the two of them are the most that
are rolled out, and then occasionally you'll see some of
the other members.
Speaker 4 (10:22):
And it is interesting as well that the two women
who were sort of I guess the two right hand
women of Michael Gunner, Natasha Files and Nicole Madison. Nicole
Madison stepping down at the selection and Natasha Files is
nowhere to be seen. She's on the back bench. You know,
you've got a lot of experience. They're the Deputy Chief
Minister and the Health Minister through COVID not really being
(10:42):
the public face of labor at all at this content.
Speaker 5 (10:44):
And you don't see the Deputy Chief Minister at the moment,
Chancey Pace, although he was in Darwin this weekend.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
I did see ministerial duties the lead with you boat.
Speaker 5 (10:54):
You don't see the Health Minister out.
Speaker 1 (10:55):
Yeah, very interesting, but look I'm interested to hear from
our listeners this morning. Zero four double nine seven double
one three six zero. Ministerial experience or real world experience?
Speaker 2 (11:05):
What do you prefer? I don't know.
Speaker 5 (11:06):
Run into the difference that both parties are trotting up,
that THECLP is trotting out. She's talking about that. You know,
her team has made up of people of real world
experience that have other jobs that they can bring in
to Parliament to do the jobs that needed to be
delivered because they understand how the outside works. Outside world
works rather than just being a political staffer on the
(11:28):
fifth floor, a political hack. As they say, well, look
we might.
Speaker 2 (11:32):
Have a look at the different seats. What do you reckon?
Speaker 1 (11:35):
You're both keen to have a little focus on the
seats and I know that there are some that the
major political parties and indeed the Greens and Independents are
going to be focusing.
Speaker 2 (11:43):
On as winnable.
Speaker 1 (11:45):
First, looking at Arafura, we know that Manuel Brown from
the ALP currently holds our Refura. He has got a
Yanya Thompson who is running against a running against him
for the COLP.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
Look, I don't know. I feel like it's probably going
to be a pretty safe.
Speaker 4 (12:02):
One Manuel has as I understand it connections to both
Matting Greta on the mainland and also Teewee Ireland communities
as well has connections to both.
Speaker 3 (12:11):
So I can't imagine labor being under threat there.
Speaker 5 (12:13):
No, I agree with that.
Speaker 1 (12:14):
Yeah, let's have a look at Ara Lewin. This is
indeed going to be an interesting one. Robin Lamley had
only won it on about forty seven votes if I
recall correctly from the last election. I could be wrong,
could be one or two different, but she has well
four people up against her this time round. I've spoken
to a couple of people in Alice who have said
(12:34):
that they feel as though she's pretty safe. That she
has been a very vocal and active local member.
Speaker 5 (12:39):
So yeah, I will I would be very hard pressed
to see Robin losing this. That would probably be the
biggest upset for me if she got.
Speaker 3 (12:47):
Barely campaign there.
Speaker 4 (12:48):
They pre selected someone on literally the last day before
nominations closed, like they haven't run a campaign there because
I suspect that possibly after the election they might want
to bring Rob well, they might want Rob on side.
Speaker 1 (13:01):
Now, yeah, I think that's a very good point to make.
I think that if we and we might get to
that after but if we were to see a minority
government in some way, that is where those independents are
going to become so very important. Let's head across to Arnham.
We know Selena Rubo, the current health spinister, up against
in a new gumbaler.
Speaker 5 (13:21):
I do apologize if pronounces the CP.
Speaker 4 (13:25):
He ran in twenty sixteen for the COLP and was defeated,
but then he ran us an independent in twenty twenty
and gave Selena Yubo a real run for money. I
think it was very close last time, so the CLP
pre selecting him does make for an interesting contest. I
don't know if it's you know, maybe because he ran
as an independent that he did so well.
Speaker 5 (13:44):
Yeah, the Bushets are always very difficult to call early,
I think because of obviously the low voter turnout within
remote regions and remote poling. But yeah, those are definitely
interesting to see. What might there if there is a
swing in the bush could be determinant.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
Now a very close seat from one which everybody's going
to be keeping quite the eye on, I think, is Barclay.
It is currently held by the COLP Steve Edgington. The
ALP is saying that they've got a very strong candidate
in Lizzy Hogan, who has got quite a bit of
support out in the bush Way.
Speaker 4 (14:17):
Yeah, and Labor was saying someone within Labor was saying
that the seat now has sort of been redistributed in
a way where there's now more First Nations voters in
that electorate right for the first time, and so that
might make Steve Edgington's job a bit more difficult. He
only won it by five votes, as I recall it.
Speaker 2 (14:33):
Blust collection it was really tight.
Speaker 3 (14:35):
It could be a really interesting contest.
Speaker 4 (14:37):
I suspect that it's probably safer for Steve than say
other seats in the Bush like Mamateurra.
Speaker 5 (14:45):
Yeah, incumbency plays a lot because you have had the resources,
especially in those larger seats, to be able to travel
around and be seen and make those extra connections that
perhaps you didn't have before.
Speaker 1 (14:57):
Now a couple of the really interesting ones I think
are going to be out in Palmerston and having a
look at Blaine. It is currently held by former Labor
Party member now independent Mark Turner. He's up against Denny
Evely for the ALP and Matthew Cool for the CLP.
Now again, this one was pretty tight last time round,
but on preferences and I believe even on the primary
(15:21):
vote in the end that Mark Turner did edge in
front of Matthew Cool. Look, I think this is I
think this seat is well and truly at play.
Speaker 5 (15:29):
Yeah, definitely. I mean we historically see Palmerston as a
more conservative leaning kind of region. In the past that
was the CLP heartland so to speak. In the northern
suburbs were ALP that they got punished, The CLP got
punished in twenty sixteen because of that chaotic government. So
(15:51):
that's where later picked up several seats. So you have
to question, obviously, with crime being such a major factor
in this election, that perhaps they are pretty getting pretty
confident with that their chances are getting better.
Speaker 4 (16:05):
I'd say even I remember we talked to Mark Turner
a couple of weeks ago and he even he said
it would be very difficult for him to win the
seats soul.
Speaker 3 (16:14):
You know, he might be being modest, but.
Speaker 5 (16:18):
Played Matthew Kurl stood last year for the cop last election,
and from my understanding, he really kind of hasn't stopped. Yeah,
it's kind of been a very visible presence. But also
to Mark Turner, he's obviously been a very active player
in his electorate as well. I understand he does a
lot of patrolling himself, obviously being a former police officer,
(16:41):
and you know out in Palmerston as a defense police
kind of enforcements.
Speaker 2 (16:46):
Were in Palmerston.
Speaker 1 (16:47):
We might have a quick look at Drysdale, Evil Laula
of course taking on Clinton. How we now know that
there is an independent running as well as Cindy.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
Roberts, and yeah, look I think this is.
Speaker 1 (16:59):
Going to be a really interesting from some Labor inside,
as I am told that they have got some concerns
out there.
Speaker 4 (17:04):
Yeah, this is one that I think, if it does
go to Colp's way, will be the story of the
night because it really if the Chief Minister loses her
own seat, you know, it's pretty much game over for
Labor in terms of forming government.
Speaker 3 (17:17):
I think it will be.
Speaker 4 (17:18):
Yeah, it could be fifty one to forty nine in
terms of how things play out there.
Speaker 5 (17:23):
It's not un called for for the you know, a
party to lose their leader at the election. Obviously Terry
Mills lost his seat and he was very popular member
in Blaine. Adam Charles lost his seat when the COP
wiped out. So it's not beyond the.
Speaker 1 (17:39):
We're going to have we'll power through a little bit here, Brakling,
How do we think that one's going to go Josh
Burgle in the CLP's current sitting member CP. Yeah, look,
I'm I'm thinking it's going to be a tough challenge
for him to lose that seat. But any anybody Scarce,
I guess when you go to Brennan Murrayquitte Claire boothby
taking on Tony Severs again, I would say that very clear.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
Is probably going to hold that one.
Speaker 1 (18:02):
Tiny a lovely bloke, but I do think that the
reality of the crime issue out there is going to have.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
A big impact.
Speaker 5 (18:08):
And she beat Tony two.
Speaker 1 (18:09):
Yeah last time around Casharina. Now I'm told that this
is going to be an interesting one. I would have
thought that it would be a pretty safe seat for
the Labor Party. Some telling me that Coda Patel for
the CLP is a that he is one to watch.
That he apparently speaks fluent Greek, so out in those
suburbs he's quite popular on the doors.
Speaker 2 (18:31):
But that's you know, I guess you don't know.
Speaker 4 (18:35):
I think the cop have only won one seat or
two seats in the Northern suburbs since two thousand and one.
Someone can correct me. So if they are winning cash
Arena on Saturday next week, that's going to be.
Speaker 1 (18:47):
Well yeah, they held no Yeah and Peter Styles that was.
Speaker 4 (18:55):
The only two times, yes, that they've had a seat
in the Northern suburb.
Speaker 1 (19:00):
Look. One of the other interesting ones, some would say
not interesting, but I think it's going to be one
that could be at play again is the seat of
Daily Duran Young taking on Chris Cibtrees from the COLP.
Now Duran obviously in that seat has been since the
by election the last Northern Territory election. It was actually
won by the CLP. It just deppends I guess whether well.
Speaker 2 (19:22):
Who you know, if people turn out.
Speaker 5 (19:23):
To varnish is the biggest thing in those areas. Like, yeah,
you look at how the by election result went, but
you know by elections and general elections are very different.
Speaker 2 (19:33):
Yeah, hey, what do we reckon in Fanny Bay?
Speaker 5 (19:35):
Oh, that's going to be an interesting one. Certainly, Brent's
boosted his profile since he was elected. He didn't get
the first preference votes, he was helped across the line
for the Greens, which potentially might be the case again
in this instance. Yeah, just depends on the local issues.
I think, yeah, well it's out.
Speaker 4 (19:52):
Of Green's probably the most confident there, but I don't
think they've really don't think he has well.
Speaker 1 (19:56):
And look, we'll focus on that seat throughout this week
as well. I know that's even the secure staying on
there around Perrap is a big issue for those that
live in Fanny Bay and also you know the there
at the at the Fanny Bay shops as well. People
have had some real issues. Now Fong Limb it's another
one that I think is well and truly up for grabs.
Mark Monahan the ALP is the incumbent member taking on
(20:21):
Tanzil Raman Rahman, I should say Amy un Independent and
Simon Niblock for the nt Greens.
Speaker 4 (20:29):
I the CLP have been campaigning hard there. I know
someone who's had Leah and Tanzil on her door twice
in the last couple of weeks, so I think they're
playing for it.
Speaker 3 (20:39):
They're making a play for it.
Speaker 2 (20:42):
Interesting.
Speaker 5 (20:42):
It was a bit of a red distribution there of
the electoral boundary.
Speaker 1 (20:46):
I think there is yes to some degree. I think
it's actually taking in a part of Berrima as like
a part somehow a part of Barrima, So that will
be an interesting one.
Speaker 2 (20:55):
Goida, what are our thoughts?
Speaker 5 (20:57):
Well, Obviously the Independent out there she has been backed
by a Keysier, so that is a big potentially factor
out there. But I don't know. Sorry, Kesey, I'm sure
you're listening, but I just can't help but think that
the CLP are a really good chance there. I think
there are claims of some dirty tactics playing out there
(21:17):
as well.
Speaker 4 (21:18):
Yeah, Belinda seems very confident, but you know that can
always be sort of misleading. Yeah, but you know, it's
one of those ones that will know on the night,
but I'm not sure.
Speaker 1 (21:28):
Yeah, you just never know, all right, So I think
it's safe to say that Chancey Paike is going to
be safe out there at.
Speaker 2 (21:35):
Gordia yep.
Speaker 1 (21:36):
And then in Johnson. Now this is going to be
I think a very interesting one the Alps. Joel Bowden
currently holds that seat, but a lot of people keeping
a very close eye on Justin David Susie Independent.
Speaker 4 (21:47):
Yeah, she is at least you know, if you go
to the Rapid Creek Markets on a Sunday, she has
a whole shop front there. She has seven volunteers out
talking to people. From my anecdotal questioning of people there,
it doesn't seem like Joel has actually been at the
markets very much until the last couple of weeks and
just going around. I know that, you know, it's a
it's a different than the electric sort of diverse. But
(22:09):
I know that in Jingly the core flutes are out.
I remember counting in the street of ten houses, five
houses had Justine Davis core flutes on them. So you know,
I'm not saying that to issue in It could be
that you know, it's a safe Labor retain, but it
really depends on if Justine gets into second spot on
first preferences.
Speaker 5 (22:29):
Yeah, I think this is probably the best chance for
an independent, and that the circumstance of someone new coming in.
Speaker 2 (22:34):
Hey, Karama, that's going to be an interesting one as well.
Speaker 5 (22:36):
I think I can't help but feel like Karama has
the biggest factor with crime playing into it, and potentially
the biggest it's the biggest one at threat for Labor.
Speaker 3 (22:45):
I think it's going to be.
Speaker 4 (22:46):
If there's one seat that does fall to Labor on
the night in the northern suburbs, it's going to be Karama.
Speaker 3 (22:51):
I think that's that's the most vulnerable place for them.
Speaker 1 (22:57):
We'll go through these ones quite quickly, Catherine, I'm thinking
the CELP will retain.
Speaker 5 (23:01):
Joe's got that in the bag.
Speaker 1 (23:03):
Malka obviously we know Yinya yep and up against ol Fanning. Interestingly,
from the CELP, I believe that his name was listed.
I don't know whether that was a mistake or whether
he's whether he.
Speaker 2 (23:13):
Has whether the CELP is popped.
Speaker 5 (23:15):
I think he was one of one of those last minutes.
Speaker 2 (23:18):
Yeah, yeah, Namajira. People are keeping it eye on this.
Speaker 4 (23:23):
But if I think Namajerra is I've heard that the
SELP is nervous about nama Jira. Now that's because, yeah,
apparently there's some good campaigning on the ground from Labor.
I would say that Namajera is more likely of that
one and Barkley to fall to Labor.
Speaker 3 (23:40):
But yeah, I don't like.
Speaker 1 (23:41):
Peop whether they do or not, Yeah, it remains to
be seen. Nelson, I think I do think that Jerra
Mayley is safe out there. We do know that Beverly
Rata here are very strong independent running against the ALP
president Anthony Vines.
Speaker 5 (23:54):
And he was a late minute call up.
Speaker 1 (23:56):
Yeah, another one and then Nightcliff Natasha Files taking on
a number of number of candidates in Nightcliff.
Speaker 5 (24:02):
I think Farsi will still come away with the win,
but I think it will carve into her majority a bit,
which for her probably is a bit of a disappointment
how strong she's held that.
Speaker 4 (24:14):
You look at the last federal election and the results there,
the Greens came second at the Nightcliff polling booth, so
that could be the one where that could be one
where the Greens do potentially fall into second place. You'd
have to expect that even if Labor lose every other seat,
Natasha would hold on.
Speaker 1 (24:32):
If they lose Nightcliff, then they can expect a total
NA wipeout. I think it's safe to say Port Darwin now,
I think this is one that the CLP is going
to pick up.
Speaker 2 (24:42):
I could be wrong, but I think it is.
Speaker 3 (24:43):
I had someone within within Labor say that they suspect
that that's.
Speaker 5 (24:48):
Going to be a CLP game, and that would have
been a CLP one in twenty twenty if it wasn't
for Territory Alliance anyway.
Speaker 1 (24:53):
Yep. And then of course Sanderson Kate Warden the current
sitting member and has been, you know, whether people like
or not, a very strong local member. Yeah.
Speaker 5 (25:02):
I used to live in that electorate and constantly got
letter box by Kate because I wasn't at home when
she was door knocking. But yes, she constantly is out
in the electorate and so I would be surprised if
she didn't keep that very quickly.
Speaker 1 (25:16):
A Lea Faro I think is safe in Spilett. And
then of course Wanguri the last one Schlock Shama up
against Stolly Carlson, Graham Sawyer and Andrew Coates for the Greens.
Speaker 5 (25:25):
Yeah, this is going to be shaping up as an
interesting one. I can't help but feel like Labour's probably
got it. But it's so nice incumb and see, losing
an incumbent person like Nicole Madison is a big thing
to lose for Labor. So, you know, with a big
defense personnel out there, crime still being an issue across
(25:47):
the board.
Speaker 4 (25:48):
And Graham Sawyer does potentially have that sort of same
has the potential to do that thing that Territory Alliance
did and you know in Port Darwin and be here
spoiler because he does have name recognition. He's a film
the Lord Mayor in Darwin, so there is the chance
that some funny stuff could happen there.
Speaker 1 (26:03):
Well, look, we're going to have to leave it there,
but we might try and catch up with you both
again next week at some point, if that's possible. It's
been lovely to have you both in the studio. Thank
you for your insights this morning. Kathleen Gazola from nine
News do you And Thomas Morgan from the ABC, thank you.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
We'll talk to you soon.
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