On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:
- ANORA & A REAL PAIN locks for Original Screenplay
- Two unconventional writing pieces in THE SUBSTANCE & THE BRUTALIST cement their chances for Screenplay with solid Best Picture bids, but are they really writers’ cup of tea?
- Four first-time nominees and the shrinking window for a veteran writer on the Original Screenplay shortlist. Can CIVIL WAR or SATURDAY NIGHT recover?
- Justin Kuritzkes to ride breakthrough year into first Oscar nomination for writer-fave CHALLENGERS
- A (too little too late?) boost for writer Mike Leigh’s HARD TRUTHS with vocal support from Barry Jenkins & Greta Gerwig
- ALL WE IMAGINE AS LIGHT hopes for a solo nod in writing after being the rare critics darling not submitted for International Film
- Can the experimental NICKEL BOYS lock up a screenplay nod on the strength and popularity of its Pulitzer Prize-winning source material
- DUNE PART 2 struggling to repeat after Dune Part One’s nomination
- Can the Almodovar name push his English-language debut THE ROOM NEXT DOOR past musical fare
- SING SING vast writing team hopes to secure at least one nomination with writers
- Veteran CONCLAVE writer the favorite to finally win
- Former writing nominees, Mangold and Jay Cocks collaboration an easy call for Adapted Screenplay
- WICKED and EMILIA PEREZ trying to scale a mountain of history against them and land among the Adapted Screenplay nominees. Can ONE or BOTH beat the odds?
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Jules (00:15):
hey, welcome back to academy, anonymous.
I'm your co-host, jules and I'mjoseph and we're going to be
dissecting original screenplayand adapted screenplay, seeing
the field and coming up with ourfinal predictions for Oscar
nomination morning.
All right, let's start withoriginal screenplay.
Joseph (00:34):
Right, and I think we have some definite locks in this
race and some likelies, andthen we have one giant question
mark for you and me For the lastthree months.
We haven't been able to sort ofnail it down and as the road to
Oscar closes, I don't thinkwe're any closer to having a
definitive answer on it.
(00:55):
It's very suspect, but let'sstart talking about the titles
all the way at the top.
Let's talk about.
Onora right, we both agree,this is a lock.
Yeah, lock and likely winner,yes and it's great to see, or
very common to see, screenplaysthat overlap between writing and
directing and.
Sean Baker certainly fits thatmold right right.
Jules (01:16):
We've got a real pain which has really stayed alive
after its Sundance premiere andis really in a very comfortable
position here to get nominated.
I think it's a lock as well.
Joseph (01:28):
Right.
Jules (01:29):
I think another film that I would consider a lock is the
Brutalist for screenplay.
Something that people have tokeep in mind, if they don't
already know, is that when we'retalking about a field of 10
Best Picture nominees, themajority of those films should
be nominated for screenplay.
Joseph (01:47):
They ought to be.
Jules (01:48):
In the event that there's one or two left off.
That's okay, that's normal, butwhat you shouldn't have is
three films that don't have ascreenplay nomination.
You can figure out, in a way,who's going to be nominated for
Best Picture by looking at theabove the lines and looking at
director acting, acting andespecially screenplay, to see
who's going to round out thattop 10 list.
(02:09):
And so the Brutalist is a topfive movie and should stand a
very good chance of getting thescreenplay nomination.
Joseph (02:16):
I agree the Brutalist seems to be in there.
I would knock it a notch downas a very likely.
Again, we've seen editors bevery critical about a film
that's three hours plus, youknow, kind of asking themselves
where is the editor?
There is a chance that thissort of unconventional,
unorthodox, opaque, artistic,challenging international film
(02:42):
about the american dream ispossibly not can't be boxed in
enough or pigeonholed enough forsome writers and that that
might be a turnoff.
You know, at the same time,brady corbett and his co-writer
mona they're not necessarilyperennial names here.
I don't think that this is thekind of film that will get into
this category, were it not amassive favorite for best
(03:06):
picture, but, as you said, byvirtue of being on that best
picture lineup.
Jules (03:10):
It's easy to cross over into screenplay, so I think
that's very likely to happen Iagree with that point, um, and
the next film that I would sayis a very likely nominee is the
substance, by virtue that Ithink it's in a strong position
to be nominated for Best Picture, and this is what I think is
going to be Coralie Fargeau'snomination outside of a producer
(03:32):
credit I'm not sure she's goingto get into director, but the
Substance has kind of alsostayed alive in the conversation
of screenplay, which I think isa little odd for that movie.
Personally, I wouldn't peg itas the first thing you come out
of that movie is thinking aboutits screenplay.
However, after Khan, it did winthe screenplay prize, which was
(03:53):
also a little puzzling to somecritics, and then it certainly
has stayed afloat in thatconversation of screenplay where
it got a Globe nomination andso a BAFTA nomination, and I
think that, beating the odds,that film is definitely going to
get an eye for screenplay.
Joseph (04:14):
I agree with all that you said.
I I think we both thought that,coming out of that film, this
was a film to sort of push intodirector that, because, by
virtue that the film is a genrepiece and something like Black
Swan, which plays with genre,does not make the final five.
By virtue that this film wetalked about, it is very sparse
(04:36):
in dialogue and again, thatdoesn't tend to make it all the
way into screenplay unless it'sintentionally done via the
artist and that's such animportant part of its
construction.
By virtue of those two aspects,we had always debated on
whether or not it could reallysort of last all season long and
land that spot.
(04:57):
But the momentum for theSubstance as a best picture
movie, I think really solidifiesit.
Here Again, I want to put italongside the brutalist as very
likely were it not to benominated.
You understand that factorslike genre bias, yeah like you
know, a lack of focus ondialogue possibly all those are
(05:18):
going to be factors that were tobe left off this list.
It would be the reason why.
Yeah, but at the moment, whereit stands, I agree with you it
is in the top four, and thatreally sums up, I think, what
you and I would consider themost solidified four in this
race the locks, the verylikelies.
(05:39):
The fifth spot is an absolutequestion mark.
It's debatable as to which filmis ahead.
You know, I think the bestplace to start is let's start
discussing the BAFTA 5, right,and so the BAFTA 5 has those
four titles already placed in it, and the fifth spot went to
Kneecap, right.
Jules (06:00):
Right.
Joseph (06:00):
And I don't think that you and I are thinking that's a
film that's going to be able togo the distance and land this
nomination in the Academy, but Ido think it demonstrates that
whoever's going to kneecap forthe British Academy, which means
that maybe the deciding votethat's going to happen to push
(06:30):
this film is possibly the moreAmerican independent vote.
Maybe it's the internationalvote that does not include the
British Academy.
So, barring kneecap, let's takea look now at who the other
shortlisted or I should say,long listed films were for
original screenplay, because thereally interesting thing about
bafta long lists is that,especially for screenplay,
(06:52):
they've been very revealing.
They have had, I think, all 10screenplay nominees at the
academy, that's all 10,including adapted and original,
within their long lists.
And that's true whether thelong lists were 15 mentions in
early on in 2020 and 2021, so atotal of 30 films listed between
(07:13):
adapted and original.
For BAFTA they've had all 10 ofthe academy nominees for
screenplay original and adapted.
But it's also true for the lastcouple of years where they
whittled that list down to 10titles.
So in a year like 2023 and 2022, when BAFTA listed 20 titles
for original and adapted, theystill had the 10 titles that
(07:34):
were included for the academy'soriginal and adapted category.
So here are the titles that gotleft off of that original
screenplay list for the BritishAcademy.
All we Imagine is Light, aninternational film by Acapulia,
the Apprentice Challengers,civil War and Heretic.
(07:57):
So the odds are that if there'sa spoiler there, it's probably
amongst those titles.
Jules (08:04):
Right, yeah, I think that's very true.
They've trended in that way.
I think this year is a weirderyear, so I wouldn't be surprised
to see the last spot in thislineup go to someone that is not
on the BAFTA long list.
I just think it's that kind ofyear, it's that kind of
(08:25):
crapshoot.
I think I get a little bit moreconfidence in that sort of
perspective when I see thatkneecap got that last spot as
opposed to one of the other morewell-known films that are vying
for this position here at theOscars.
Well, there are a number offilms that you mentioned there
that I think have a shot, albeitI don't think one of the
(08:46):
stronger shots, and that'sChallengers.
All we Imagine Is Light.
Heretic, I see them as runninga bit behind from the rest of
the field.
I think All we Imagine Is Light.
Given its circumstance of thisbeing one of the very few and
only places where it can bespotlighted, might be enough to
get it into that lineup.
Possibly that's true.
Possibly that's true.
(09:06):
Possibly that's true.
What do you think about a filmlike the Seat of the Sacred Fig?
Joseph (09:12):
Well, the Seat of the Sacred Fig did not factor into
the BAFTA list, and I don't knowif right now it's a bridge too
far.
It seems like if there were tobe an international film to
crash this side of screenplay,it would probably be payal
kapadia's film.
All we imagine is light.
I think we've also talked abouthow very few films that win the
(09:33):
national society of filmcritics walk away empty-handed
and this might be a place toinclude an individual like payal
.
I would have thought at onepoint that payal had a better
chance of getting in here, forAll we Imagine is Life than the
Substance, but the Substance issuch a favorite for a picture
nomination now that it seemsdifficult to imagine.
Now what if we cross-referencedthese movies with the movies
(09:54):
that got shortlisted at theWriters Guild Award, and maybe
that gives you a clearer idea.
And bear in mind there were alot of films that did not
qualify here.
So whatever five this is is alist where the Substance and the
Buddha list were not eligible,and so the Writers Guild Award
for original screenplay theyselected A Real Pain and Anora,
(10:14):
which we're saying are locks fora nomination, but they rounded
out the list with the two hitsfrom the summer Challengers and
Civil War and lastly Mild Ass,and I think we can both agree
that, unfortunately, mild ass isprobably a little too far
behind to make up this groundalthough it's an excellent film
and it's a wonderful script.
(10:34):
We both really enjoyed thatmovie.
A lot right but you know, hereare two titles that cross over
with bafta and you havechallengers and civil war.
Is maybe that painting apicture to you that maybe the
best films to steal?
That fifth spot is eitherChallengers or Civil War.
Is that what you're thinking?
Jules (10:53):
I think that's possible.
If anything, I think it bringsabout another conversation and I
know we'll touch on it eithernow or very soon on this idea
that this category really doeswelcome and is very often that
you see a veteran in theoriginal screenplay lineup and
this year we have very fewoptions from which to pick for
(11:15):
that spot.
And the Writers Guild didinclude a veteran.
They did.
They included Alex Garland forCivil War.
Yeah, surprisingly, otheroptions that exist are Mike Lee,
for Hard Truth is one.
Joseph (11:29):
The team from Saturday Night Saturday.
Jules (11:30):
Night is another one, but in general there are very few
options, very few viable ones,yeah, and so it's interesting
that even the Writers Guildfound a spot for a veteran and
it being a surprising spot likeCivil War Right, it certainly
makes me think that A thewriters branch is still going to
try to stick with that stat andhave a veteran in the lineup,
(11:52):
and also that Civil War lookslike a good person to fill that
slot, a good contender to fillthat slot.
Joseph (11:59):
Well, I'll say this about both films.
First of all, for challengers,it has that golden globe
nomination.
It's well regarded amongstwriters.
It was really celebrated andspotlighted amongst writers when
it came out.
I remember ryan johnson wastweeting about a great movie
great movie and it's also amovie that sort of plays with
this archetype of you know,sports movie as metaphor for
other things and relationshipsand and sexual relationships and
(12:19):
intimate relationships andcharacter studies and that's
been sort of recognized before.
I remember bull durham, Ibelieve, did well here in this
category to the screenplaycategory, so it seems like the
kind of film that would befodder for writers.
On top of that, the writer whowas really just starting out in
his career he had two moviesthis year with luca right, right
, and so maybe writers are awareof that and that helps push him
(12:41):
across the line for the morecelebrated, the more prominent
title at this point, which isChallengers right, right, but
maybe as a disadvantage is thathis career is still very much in
the beginning stages, right,which could be a reason why the
branch looks elsewhere, possiblyI think.
(13:03):
also he's in a relationship withthe writer of past lives and I
don't know if that's going to besomething that voters are aware
of or not aware of a celinesong, I believe.
So I don't know if that's goingto be an element or not.
It's just an interesting tidbit.
But then you have civil war,right, and alex garland has been
nominated before.
In fact, ex Machina was widelynominated within the Academy.
(13:24):
So he's a Writers Guild Awardnominee this year for Civil War
and he made that long list andwe've talked about it all year.
That fifth spot.
According to our research andour stats it should be a veteran
and unfortunately this yearwe've been very thin on them.
But here you go.
I was shocked to see Civil Waron this list over titles that I
(13:45):
thought had momentum for them asthe year closed, and that
included Heretic, which waslisted at BAFTA.
That included a movie like BabyGirl, which had just opened up
over Christmas and was doingspectacularly.
So I was really surprised tosee Civil War here.
And you know what this seemedlike the kind of guild where if
Saturday night, as a sort ofveteran spot, was going to hit
(14:06):
anywhere, it would definitelyhit here.
So the idea that the guild hadroom for a veteran makes me feel
like the Oscars is going tohave room for a veteran and the
fact that of all the choicesthey decided on Civil War, I
think might make it the bestcandidate.
It did cross over into BAFTA aswell.
Unfortunately, I don't thinkthe support for Saturday Night
(14:28):
materialized, but I did think atthe beginning of the year, or
rather the beginning of the fall, that there's just so much
respect for the topic amongstwriters, the topic of making the
show and making art, and ofcourse, a lot of writers who
have crossed over and have arelationship, a personal
relationship, a professionalrelationship with Saturday Night
(14:49):
Live, that I thought it wouldhave been able to sort of land
here and possibly sneak into theOscar in that veteran spot.
Jules (14:54):
If that's not the case, I think that Civil War is
sounding like a really goodoption right, I think that's
true, but I think that'ssomething that's complicating
things is that, with no clearveteran to take that spot, there
is a lot of other films that Ithink might be perceived by the
branch as being one of the few,one of the few ways that they
(15:15):
can spotlight this movie.
Uh, for example, challengers.
Some writers may feel like,well, you know, if I don't
nominate Challengers, maybe itdoesn't get, maybe it walks away
with no nominations.
Some writers might feel thatway about Heretic, which I think
got the WGA nomination correct.
Joseph (15:31):
No, it only got the BAFTA longlist mention.
Jules (15:33):
Right.
Some writers might feel thatway about Heretic.
Some writers will certainlyfeel that way about All we
Imagine is Light.
So when you have all thesetitles that are competing for
the same kind of voting block, apassionate block that wants to
highlight one of the few waysthat they can highlight one of
these movies, then maybe you getinto a trickier territory of
(15:53):
you know no, coalescing into onepassion vote, coalescing into
one passion vote One movie thatI left off there, that I think
we should certainly talk aboutand that's in that group of
movies as possibly being a filmthat generates a passionate
voting block.
The question is how big?
And that's September five,which, if you see the movie, I
(16:15):
think you can certainly seewriters respecting this film,
liking this film.
It's a very thought provokingfilm with its themes, um, and I
can see a lot of writers goingfor it if they saw the movie.
Um, which is again a bigquestion mark.
Um, the PGA nomination gives mesome kind of reassurance that
(16:36):
the film is being watched.
Are writers watching it enough?
I don't know.
I saw that movie and I feltlike writers would really attach
to the themes that that film istalking about.
I think it juggles, uh thecrisis, as well as character
development, really well in thatmovie, and it's a very layered
(16:57):
film um contemplating uh themeslike media and ethics and media,
the role of the spectator.
So I think those are all umaspects of the film that I think
writers would gravitate towards, and so I think that that is a
very dark horse.
To make a surprise mention hereI know it's not on the bafta
long list I know it's donepretty poorly overall.
(17:21):
Again, they did get that pganomination pretty late, but
maybe that's some sort ofindication.
So I think a film to reallywatch out for here in place of a
veteran not seeing as we don'thave that many to choose from
and it's sort of splinteredoverall is a film like
septemberth.
Joseph (17:38):
I agree with what you're saying.
I believe that September 5thunfortunately has not had the
energy to pop up in enoughplaces.
It's not on that Babs AlongList, it's not at the Guild
Awards and it's been quietoverall.
But that PGA nomination inrecent days should be very
telling.
I think you and I researchedand what's going most for
(17:59):
September 5th is that it's veryrare over the past few years to
find a PGA nominee in thatextended list.
That gets absolutely shut out.
Yeah, exactly it doesn't need ascreenplay category.
You know movies like the Whaleand Black Panther, wakanda
Forever.
They end up in actingcategories and tech categories
beyond Best Picture.
(18:19):
But even if you don't land BestPicture, it is very rare these
last few years to be on thatlist and get nothing, and I
think that this category ispossibly thin enough for
September 5th to land here atminimum and I think that's going
for it and beyond that.
I also think the last few yearswe've seen these nominees for
(18:39):
Best picture drama at the GoldenGlobes.
It's very difficult again forthem not to show up somewhere.
You have to think aboutsomething like Bobby or the
Great Debaters back in 2007,2006,.
Both of them at the hands ofthe Weinstein company.
So very much sort of you know,the Weinstein hands sort of
manipulate the conversation orguiding the conversation in ways
(19:02):
that maybe weren't very organic.
But the fact that September 5this on both the PGA list and the
Golden Globe drama list lead meto believe that it's going to
be virtually impossible for itto walk away empty-handed, and
this category seems ripe for itsinclusion although it would
sort of ruin our sort of statand that stat.
Just to reiterate that stat goesback to 2001.
(19:24):
Every year, but 2001, I believe, the original screenplay
category has had a writer thatwas nominated beforehand for an
academy award since firstscreenplay ever, yeah, ever
since 2001.
And in 2001, if remember, thenominees were Amelie, memento,
monsters Ball, the RoyalTenenbaums and Gosford Park, all
(19:47):
of them first-time nominees.
So no veteran there.
And I think the only realveteran from the sort of
screenplay category that reallyhad a shot was possibly the Coen
brothers.
For the man who Wasn't there, Ithink at that point the Coen
brothers were sort of hittingthis moment where they were
being overlooked by the academy.
The man who wasn't therebeautiful film nominated for
(20:07):
cinematography but missed thatsort of veteran spot in
screenplay and maybe that's thesituation we're in now, but I do
want to bring in one lastveteran who I think he doesn't
really need very much to end upon this list.
That's the esteem and respecthe has from his colleagues, and
that's Mike Lee for Hard Truths,right, yeah, absolutely.
Jules (20:25):
I would love for Hard Truths to be nominated here.
It's one of my favorite filmsof the year.
It's a beautiful script.
It's a beautiful film.
Mike Lee is no stranger tobeing recognized.
It's actually odd, the Mike Leefilm that isn't recognized for
anything.
Right, it's rare, um, and evenwhen his performances or his
films don't do well overall, hestill manages a screenplay
(20:46):
nomination.
Um, I think the film was comingout at a tricky time, was
coming out late.
Um, bleaker street it's bleakerstreet.
During its release, very soonaround that time you had the LA
wildfires, so I don't know ifenough people were paying
attention.
I know I saw Barry Jenkinsdoing a.
Joseph (21:03):
Q&A.
Jules (21:04):
I saw Greta Gerwig doing a Q&A and that just speaks to
the respect that that filmmakerhas in this community.
Joseph (21:11):
He also won the National Board of Review which has been
great at getting their winnersinto whatever screenplay
category they win.
Jules (21:18):
Correct, and so you know, know, I think his inclusion
here would be uh great, it wouldbe beautiful.
I'm not sure it's going tohappen again, I'm just not sure
that it got enough eyeballs onit, um, and maybe that film
shows up elsewhere, which we'llget into, uh later.
Um, but yeah, what do you think?
Joseph (21:38):
I.
I think that if it does get in.
We know it had interviews inthe couple of days leading up to
the final Oscar ballots beingdue.
Greta Gerwig was there, barryJenkins was there.
I believe those interviewsmight have been conducted on the
East Coast and we talk aboutthat idea about the wildfire,
(22:00):
sort of you know, being top ofmind and top of priority for a
lot of west coast voters.
I wonder if mike lee does showup there, if sort of the east
coast voters that could sort ofreally resonate with his work,
if maybe there's just going tobe enough support from them and
enough respect for sort of thaticonic cinema to get Mike Lee
(22:22):
into this race, where I do thinkwe don't have much veteranship.
I mean, even R2-Lock Sean Bakerhas been making films since
2000,.
But Jesse Eisenberg, this isonly his second film and this is
only the second film of thesubstance writer Cora Lee, and
it's really only the third filmof the substance uh, writer
Coralie, and it's really onlythe third film for uh, brady
(22:43):
Corbett and Mona, it's only hersecond screenplay, I believe.
Uh, so I think someone of hisesteem might just be able to
pull off that veteran spot.
Jules (22:53):
That is a really good point.
And so, to that point, um,those are my predicted five
right now a Nora real pain.
So, to that point, those are mypredicted five right now Onora
Real Pain, the Brutalist, theSubstance.
And in that last spot, becauseI think the film shouldn't walk
out empty-handed, and this isactually the best place for this
film to pop up, I'm going, withSeptember 5, to be that last
(23:14):
screenplay, original screenplayspot.
Those are my five, and myspoiler would be Mike Lee for
Heart Truths.
Joseph (23:21):
I think I would go with the exact same five as well
Onora, A Real Pain, theSubstance, the Brutalist and
September 5.
And my spoiler would also beMike Lee.
I'm really hesitant to leaveoff a veteran and I'm very
tempted to think that there'sprobably just too many
nominations coming to theBrutalist.
(23:44):
That makes me feel like we maybe possibly looking at a final
nomination reveal that has BradyCorbett in director and Coralie
snubbed and Coralie inscreenplay and Brady Corbett,
anda snubbed from screenplay infavor of a veteran, in favor of
a piece that is possibly morewriter friendly that's
(24:08):
interesting, I think that's agood point, I think that can uh,
that seems like something thatcould definitely happen.
Jules (24:13):
Um, okay, so we have more or less the same five in the
spoiler, and so let's move onnow to best adapted screenplay,
which is a tricky category,trickier than original
screenplay in many ways, I think, off the top of my head.
In my opinion, there are twolocks and one extreme likely.
(24:34):
The extreme likely one we'llget into in a minute, is kind of
odd for a particular reason,but I want to say that the locks
are conclave and a completeunknown for.
For best adapted screenplay,and the the strange likely is
emilia paris, because it's amusical, and this, the writers
branch, has really stepped awayfrom nominating musicals in this
(24:56):
category for a long time.
I believe the last time thatthey nominated a screenplay and
adapted was Chicago in 2002 andwas the eventual Best Picture
winner, and an originalscreenplay was La La Land in
2016.
And I think both of those filmsstand out to me in a manner that
is attention calling, becausethe musical numbers in those
(25:21):
films are sort of they exist,separate from the dialogue and
the plot that's developing.
So there's sort of you know, adedicated moment to this song
that's being performed, but inAmoeba Perez and in Wicked they
follow more of a traditionalmusical sort of structure, in
(25:42):
that, you know, there's a lot ofsing-talk and I think writers
tend to at least in the modernage, they tend to like that less
.
That's why you won't see a filmlike Les Miserables land on this
as for screenplay, despitegetting several nominations land
on this as for screenplay,despite getting several
nominations.
And so I think it's odd to seea film like Amelia Perez do as
(26:04):
well in screenplay, consideringthose factors we mentioned, but
it's done really well.
It's odd to get a film, amusical, nominated in the best
screenplay category in theGlobes, and it managed that.
It's gotten the BAFTAnomination.
I mean, the Paris seems like aforce to be reckoned with.
(26:26):
As a whole, it seems to be afilm that's going to do really
well on Oscar nomination morningand so, taking all those things
into account, as odd as it is,I think that Emilia Perez will
break the streak that has beenthere in this category since
2002 and in the originalscreenplay category since 2016,
(26:50):
of being a proper musical thatis nominated for screenplay.
Joseph (26:56):
I agree that it is a very tough call because, again,
I think writers this isn't the1950s anymore or the 1960s
anymore and writers have beenvery skeptical about inviting
musicals into this category.
There's something about in amusical such as Emilia Perez
(27:17):
when they are sort of expressingthe story through song.
Well, as a writer, the way youexperience that and the way you
sort of analyze that is okay.
Well, is that lyrics or is thatdialogue?
And the writer is responsiblefor one more than the other,
possibly both, but certainly forone.
(27:37):
You credit the dialogue to thewriter, you credit the dialogue
to the writer and you credit thelyrics to the lyricists.
Sometimes the writer directorhas a hand in the lyrics, but as
a writer, I think you'relooking for dialogue and I think
that the creativity of AmeliaPerez is really going for it.
I think it's very innovativeand different and it's going to
strike a lot of writers.
But I do think it still hasthat element of sort of singing
(28:02):
songing its own right sort ofyou know dialogue that's going
to be a turnoff to some of them.
Add to that that the actualsource material is somewhat
anonymous and somewhat vague.
I think that that might also bea factor here, right?
Because I I do do think thatwriters, especially in the
adapted screenplay category andwe'll talk about this with other
(28:22):
contenders they're not justanalyzing you know the work that
the screenwriter did, and thatthey're not just analyzing the
story and the elements of thescreenplay, but they're also, to
a certain extent, judging thematerial you're coming from,
right.
Jules (28:36):
Right.
Joseph (28:39):
So, you know, a very popular work that's.
That's going to factor in.
If it's, uh, a more anonymouswork, that's probably going to
factor in as well.
Right?
The other thing, I think, isthat emilia perez, I think
they're crediting jacques odiardfor the script here, and I
think that there was a littlebit of a collaboration with
others, other french writers whoI think are a little bit more
prominent in France, possiblyinternationally.
(29:00):
So I do think a lot ofinternational writers are going
to really push this titletowards the top.
To me it's more the Americanwriters.
Are the American writers, andcertainly the American
independent writers, are theygoing to list this title high
enough?
Because not only is it sureit's a very creative title, but
not only is it a musical whereit has elements that may be a
(29:20):
turnoff, like lyrics instead ofdialogue, but it's also somewhat
messy messy structurally andmaybe it's not something that a
writer is going to want tonominate.
Again, writers tend to be thatsort of branch where they're
really looking for somethinglike authenticity, and so that
may be a factor here.
So I'm not entirely sold thatit's going to be able to break,
(29:44):
you know, that streak or thatdry spell, and to that point.
I will say the last two filmsto do it, and that's 2002 and
2016, so that's 14 years between, and this year would be 2016 to
2024.
That's almost 10.
The last films to do it camefrom academy award nominated
writers right and in billconan's case.
An academy award winning writerright, and that may just be.
(30:05):
The difference is that jacquesariard has not been embraced by
the academy.
They did not nominate a prophet, or russ and bone or their
sisters brothers for screenplayright, I think that's a really
good point.
Jules (30:18):
Yeah, that's a good point , and on a similar note, I think
the same is true for Wicked,another musical that some people
think might have a shot herefor screenplay.
I don't think again that Ithink the branch is moving away
from highlighting musicaladaptations, certainly Broadway
musical adaptations, and in theevent that they were open to it,
(30:41):
I highly doubt that there wouldbe two.
The last time that there wereseveral, I believe, was in the
50s with Interrupted Melody,always Fair Weather and Seven
Little Foys, which got nominatedin 1955 in an original
screenplay 1964 too.
Joseph (30:58):
Mary Poppins, yes, exactly.
Jules (31:01):
And so it's been a minute , and so I highly doubt that
they would highlight both ofthem.
So I think Amita Perez'sstrength in this category really
goes to Wicked's detriment.
Joseph (31:13):
Yeah.
Jules (31:14):
I don't know if you agree .
Joseph (31:15):
I agree with that.
I think 1964 is the last timeyou had two musicals in
screenplay.
They both happened to be BestPicture nominees.
Interestingly enough, I believeone of them was based on the
musical my Fair Lady, and MaryPoppins was a musical adaptation
of a literary text, not unlikeCamila Perez.
But I do think that there justis not room for both since 1964.
Jules (31:38):
Right Perez, but I do think that there just is not
room for both since 1964.
Right, and also two films that Ilike to talk about together
because they have a similarissue, is Sing Sing and Nickel
Boys.
In that, you know, they'veunderperformed in this award
season and screenplay seems tobe one of the only categories,
or one of the very fewcategories, where they can get
spotlighted, especially a filmlike nickel boys, which doesn't
(32:02):
have an acting contender oracting contenders to sort of
prop up, while sing sing doeshave that possibility at.
Those two films, I think, havea good chance of making this
category on that basis alone,them being, uh, two critically
acclaimed films.
Certainly, nickel Boys is oneof the most revered films of the
year and, this being one of thefew spots where they can
(32:24):
actually get a spotlight, Ithink that'll go a long way to
getting those films thisnomination.
Again, nickel Boys should workout with something, considering
that it's one of the mostcritically acclaimed films of
the year and it got that goldenglobe nomination for best
picture.
Um, and same thing with singsing.
Joseph (32:43):
They should get something and this is the
perfect place opportunity to doso well, I agree with that and
and to that point you know wetalked about that streak that
bafta has incorporating all 10screenplay nominees.
On the adapted adapted side,the nominees for BAFTA were A
Complete Unknown and Conclave,which we're calling Lox.
They did include Emilia Perez,which is a very positive sign,
(33:07):
although they did nominateMoulin Rouge for original
screenplay in 2001.
And then their final two spotsthey rounded out the list with
both Nickel Boys and.
Sing Sing In the case of NickelBoys, it was its only nomination
and I think it was its onlylong list mention, I believe.
So sing sing had a couple ofmentions and it was actually
able to get a couple nominationsas well, but it did land in
(33:27):
adapted screenplay and so, as wesaid, bafta is really good at
getting at least four nominees,three to four nominees among
their screenplay nominees, butamong their, their long list
they should have all five.
And if you want to hear for asecond, who their other films
were, the films that didn't makeit, there are a couple of films
, or some films that I think wecan both agree are a bridge too
(33:49):
far, and that's something likeNight Bitch, the Outrun and Lee.
Those were shortlisted or longlist, I should say, for adapted
screenplay, but there's verylittle traction for any of those
films to get in.
Jules (34:01):
The final two were Wicked , which we spoke a little bit
about, and then I think the lastone we have to speak a little
bit about, which is Dune, parttwo yeah, exactly, and Dune part
two is a question mark because,following the success of Dune,
certainly financially, but alsowith the first Dune, with
nominations and wins you wouldthink that you know they would
(34:24):
cap off this chapter of DenisVilleneuve and his filmmakers,
his crew, for Dune as afranchise.
They would cap it off with anomination for several things,
including screenplay.
It got an eye for screenplaylast time, despite some critics
saying that you know, know theyweren't the biggest fans of the
script.
They got an eye for script lasttime.
But it's worth wondering if thewriters branch, like some, some
(34:48):
so many other categories for,uh, dune, if they're going to
feel like you know, been there,done that exactly.
We did that recently.
We can highlight new work.
Joseph (34:57):
Yeah, um, we don't have to nominate the same writers for
part two exactly so that's the,that's the handicap for dune
part two right now yeah, you andI had talked about this idea of
a symmetrical sort of nature tothe nominations you receive,
and so it looks like this yearyou might very well see dune
reap nominations in categorieswhere it's an absolute favorite,
(35:18):
like cinematography, andcategories where it lost right
unnecessarily that first time itlost a competitive race, for
example in makeup, and then inraces where they were left off
altogether, and that's somethinglike director right for denevo
new, rather than thosecategories where it was already
nominated, like adaptedscreenplay or costume design
(35:40):
right.
So I think you're right.
I think something that's reallyhurting Dune 2 is just the fact
that again splitting the movieinto two and this is something
that Warner Brothers will haveto debate how effective it was
it sort of has watered down theamount of success that this
second part can have right nowto sort of to sort of piggyback
on that.
Not only was dune too longlisted by bafta, the writers
(36:01):
guild award nominees were acomplete unknown nickel boys,
wicked dune, part two and theirlast nominee was a bit of a
surprise, even though you and Ihad figured that this movie
would be a factor at some pointin the race.
I don't know if you think it'sa little too late, but I don't
think you can ever dismiss thiswriter.
And that's hitman with richardlinklater and glenn powell right
(36:24):
, I thought that that would makemore noise.
Jules (36:26):
Certainly it was pretty quiet.
I think that that uh, thatnomination in the uh writers
guild has a lot to do with theamount of disqualifications that
were involved yeah so I thinkyou can't discount that that's a
film that sort of has fallenunder the radar alongside
another film like the Room NextDoor, which you would think a
Pedro Almodovar film that winsVenice would land somewhere.
(36:49):
But it's just been way tooquiet.
Joseph (36:51):
First English language film, his first English language
film yes.
Jules (36:55):
Feature film yeah, and you would think that that would
land somewhere, but it hasn't.
It just hasn't penetrated thatconversation strongly enough and
I thought for the longest timeit was a big shoo-in for this
category.
I could see writers liking thethemes that Paige was tackling
in this film, and I know writersare fans of Pedro Almodovar in
(37:22):
this film, um, and I knowwriters are fans of pedro
amoldovar, um, but apparentlyit's just not.
It's just not going in thatdirection.
Joseph (37:25):
It's a little too quiet.
Well, something going for it isthe fact that if you have to
sort of you know, determinewhich movie is going to be more
to their liking, you have a veryunconventional adaptation in
nickel boys, and then you have avery unconventional adaptation
in Nickel Boys, and then youhave a much more conventional
adaptation, albeit very artistic, very much in Almodovar style
in.
The Room Next Door and you knowwe've talked about Sony Picture,
(37:47):
classics, magic throughout theseason and other categories.
They have the Room Next Doorand they are very passionate
about campaigning on mode of art.
It did not make the BAFTA longlist in any category, which is a
bad sign.
But it did not make the baftalong list in any category, which
is a bad sign.
But it was nominated at theeuropean film awards and we've
talked about possibly a greaterimpact, a greater impact from
the international community.
And sony pictures has anothertitle that's eligible in this
(38:10):
category and that seems like asurefire nominee for foreign
language film, and foreignlanguage films have been
embraced by the writing branchof the academy and this year we
have the very unconventionalemilia perez, which happens to
be a musical.
But then you have this otheralmost surefire nominee for
foreign language film, I'm stillhere.
That is a really solid script,a more conventional script, but
(38:33):
it's really well done, reallysolidly written, and you kind of
have to wonder, maybe if theydecide to go elsewhere and look
for another type of foreignlanguage film.
I'm Still here might be theperfect option and it does have
Sony Picture Classics behind it,much like the Almodovar sort of
could represent a foreign vote,even though it's an English
(38:53):
language film.
And we've talked about thisidea we had mentioned it that
sometimes you're judging thework that you're adapting and
the work of I'm still here,whether it's the work of sigrid
nunez for a room next door orthe pulitzer winning work of
nickel boys, and what is anunconventional film that might
be able to eclipse the moreanonymous work that emilia perez
(39:17):
is based on right.
Jules (39:18):
I think that's a really good point.
I think I'm still here as a bigdark horse in this category.
Well, with all that in mind, Iwould say that right now, I'm
going to go with the BAFTA 5 forbest adapted screenplay.
Conclave, a Complete Unknown,amelia Perez, sing Sing and
Nickel Boys and my spoiler isI'm still here.
Joseph (39:41):
I think that's very interesting.
I think I would go with thesame the BAFTA 5.
Also, it would be a nominationfor Nickel Boys which, as I said
, with that Golden Globe Dramanomination, it should clock in
somewhere.
So I would go Conclave, sing,sing A Complete Unknown Nickel
Boys, and I guess I would haveto include Emilia Perez, even
(40:05):
though my gut is telling me thatI will not make it at the end,
that the musical factor wouldjust be too much and my spoiler
I think I'm Still here is anexcellent choice.
But if not I'm Still here, thenI think the other great choice
would be Amadovar for the RoomNext Door.
Jules (40:20):
Right, okay, well, that is our predictions, our final
predictions for the bestoriginal screenplay and the best
adapted screenplay categories.
You can check out our final,final, final predictions on
Twitter at Academy Anon.
Thank you for tuning in.
Thank you for joining us.
I'm Jules.
Joseph (40:40):
And I'm Joseph.
You've been listening toAcademy Anonymous.
Jules (40:48):
And it's been a pleasure.
The music on this episode,entitled Cool Cats, was
graciously provided by KevinMacLeod and incompetechcom,
licensed under Creative Commonsby Attribution 3.0.
Http//creativecommonsorg.
Licenses by 3.0.
Joseph (41:17):
Disclaimer the Academy Anonymous podcast is in no way
affiliated or endorsed by theAcademy of Motion Picture Arts
and Sciences.
hey, welcome back to academy, anonymous.
I'm your co-host, jules and I'mjoseph and we're going to be
dissecting original screenplayand adapted screenplay, seeing
the field and coming up with ourfinal predictions for Oscar
nomination morning.
All right, let's start withoriginal screenplay.
Joseph (00:34):
Right, and I think we have some definite locks in this
race and some likelies, andthen we have one giant question
mark for you and me For the lastthree months.
We haven't been able to sort ofnail it down and as the road to
Oscar closes, I don't thinkwe're any closer to having a
definitive answer on it.
(00:55):
It's very suspect, but let'sstart talking about the titles
all the way at the top.
Let's talk about.
Onora right, we both agree,this is a lock.
Yeah, lock and likely winner,yes and it's great to see, or
very common to see, screenplaysthat overlap between writing and
directing and.
Sean Baker certainly fits thatmold right right.
Jules (01:16):
We've got a real pain which has really stayed alive
after its Sundance premiere andis really in a very comfortable
position here to get nominated.
I think it's a lock as well.
Joseph (01:28):
Right.
Jules (01:29):
I think another film that I would consider a lock is the
Brutalist for screenplay.
Something that people have tokeep in mind, if they don't
already know, is that when we'retalking about a field of 10
Best Picture nominees, themajority of those films should
be nominated for screenplay.
Joseph (01:47):
They ought to be.
Jules (01:48):
In the event that there's one or two left off.
That's okay, that's normal, butwhat you shouldn't have is
three films that don't have ascreenplay nomination.
You can figure out, in a way,who's going to be nominated for
Best Picture by looking at theabove the lines and looking at
director acting, acting andespecially screenplay, to see
who's going to round out thattop 10 list.
(02:09):
And so the Brutalist is a topfive movie and should stand a
very good chance of getting thescreenplay nomination.
Joseph (02:16):
I agree the Brutalist seems to be in there.
I would knock it a notch downas a very likely.
Again, we've seen editors bevery critical about a film
that's three hours plus, youknow, kind of asking themselves
where is the editor?
There is a chance that thissort of unconventional,
unorthodox, opaque, artistic,challenging international film
(02:42):
about the american dream ispossibly not can't be boxed in
enough or pigeonholed enough forsome writers and that that
might be a turnoff.
You know, at the same time,brady corbett and his co-writer
mona they're not necessarilyperennial names here.
I don't think that this is thekind of film that will get into
this category, were it not amassive favorite for best
(03:06):
picture, but, as you said, byvirtue of being on that best
picture lineup.
Jules (03:10):
It's easy to cross over into screenplay, so I think
that's very likely to happen Iagree with that point, um, and
the next film that I would sayis a very likely nominee is the
substance, by virtue that Ithink it's in a strong position
to be nominated for Best Picture, and this is what I think is
going to be Coralie Fargeau'snomination outside of a producer
(03:32):
credit I'm not sure she's goingto get into director, but the
Substance has kind of alsostayed alive in the conversation
of screenplay, which I think isa little odd for that movie.
Personally, I wouldn't peg itas the first thing you come out
of that movie is thinking aboutits screenplay.
However, after Khan, it did winthe screenplay prize, which was
(03:53):
also a little puzzling to somecritics, and then it certainly
has stayed afloat in thatconversation of screenplay where
it got a Globe nomination andso a BAFTA nomination, and I
think that, beating the odds,that film is definitely going to
get an eye for screenplay.
Joseph (04:14):
I agree with all that you said.
I I think we both thought that,coming out of that film, this
was a film to sort of push intodirector that, because, by
virtue that the film is a genrepiece and something like Black
Swan, which plays with genre,does not make the final five.
By virtue that this film wetalked about, it is very sparse
(04:36):
in dialogue and again, thatdoesn't tend to make it all the
way into screenplay unless it'sintentionally done via the
artist and that's such animportant part of its
construction.
By virtue of those two aspects,we had always debated on
whether or not it could reallysort of last all season long and
land that spot.
(04:57):
But the momentum for theSubstance as a best picture
movie, I think really solidifiesit.
Here Again, I want to put italongside the brutalist as very
likely were it not to benominated.
You understand that factorslike genre bias, yeah like you
know, a lack of focus ondialogue possibly all those are
(05:18):
going to be factors that were tobe left off this list.
It would be the reason why.
Yeah, but at the moment, whereit stands, I agree with you it
is in the top four, and thatreally sums up, I think, what
you and I would consider themost solidified four in this
race the locks, the verylikelies.
(05:39):
The fifth spot is an absolutequestion mark.
It's debatable as to which filmis ahead.
You know, I think the bestplace to start is let's start
discussing the BAFTA 5, right,and so the BAFTA 5 has those
four titles already placed in it, and the fifth spot went to
Kneecap, right.
Jules (06:00):
Right.
Joseph (06:00):
And I don't think that you and I are thinking that's a
film that's going to be able togo the distance and land this
nomination in the Academy, but Ido think it demonstrates that
whoever's going to kneecap forthe British Academy, which means
that maybe the deciding votethat's going to happen to push
(06:30):
this film is possibly the moreAmerican independent vote.
Maybe it's the internationalvote that does not include the
British Academy.
So, barring kneecap, let's takea look now at who the other
shortlisted or I should say,long listed films were for
original screenplay, because thereally interesting thing about
bafta long lists is that,especially for screenplay,
(06:52):
they've been very revealing.
They have had, I think, all 10screenplay nominees at the
academy, that's all 10,including adapted and original,
within their long lists.
And that's true whether thelong lists were 15 mentions in
early on in 2020 and 2021, so atotal of 30 films listed between
(07:13):
adapted and original.
For BAFTA they've had all 10 ofthe academy nominees for
screenplay original and adapted.
But it's also true for the lastcouple of years where they
whittled that list down to 10titles.
So in a year like 2023 and 2022, when BAFTA listed 20 titles
for original and adapted, theystill had the 10 titles that
(07:34):
were included for the academy'soriginal and adapted category.
So here are the titles that gotleft off of that original
screenplay list for the BritishAcademy.
All we Imagine is Light, aninternational film by Acapulia,
the Apprentice Challengers,civil War and Heretic.
(07:57):
So the odds are that if there'sa spoiler there, it's probably
amongst those titles.
Jules (08:04):
Right, yeah, I think that's very true.
They've trended in that way.
I think this year is a weirderyear, so I wouldn't be surprised
to see the last spot in thislineup go to someone that is not
on the BAFTA long list.
I just think it's that kind ofyear, it's that kind of
(08:25):
crapshoot.
I think I get a little bit moreconfidence in that sort of
perspective when I see thatkneecap got that last spot as
opposed to one of the other morewell-known films that are vying
for this position here at theOscars.
Well, there are a number offilms that you mentioned there
that I think have a shot, albeitI don't think one of the
(08:46):
stronger shots, and that'sChallengers.
All we Imagine Is Light.
Heretic, I see them as runninga bit behind from the rest of
the field.
I think All we Imagine Is Light.
Given its circumstance of thisbeing one of the very few and
only places where it can bespotlighted, might be enough to
get it into that lineup.
Possibly that's true.
Possibly that's true.
(09:06):
Possibly that's true.
What do you think about a filmlike the Seat of the Sacred Fig?
Joseph (09:12):
Well, the Seat of the Sacred Fig did not factor into
the BAFTA list, and I don't knowif right now it's a bridge too
far.
It seems like if there were tobe an international film to
crash this side of screenplay,it would probably be payal
kapadia's film.
All we imagine is light.
I think we've also talked abouthow very few films that win the
(09:33):
national society of filmcritics walk away empty-handed
and this might be a place toinclude an individual like payal
.
I would have thought at onepoint that payal had a better
chance of getting in here, forAll we Imagine is Life than the
Substance, but the Substance issuch a favorite for a picture
nomination now that it seemsdifficult to imagine.
Now what if we cross-referencedthese movies with the movies
(09:54):
that got shortlisted at theWriters Guild Award, and maybe
that gives you a clearer idea.
And bear in mind there were alot of films that did not
qualify here.
So whatever five this is is alist where the Substance and the
Buddha list were not eligible,and so the Writers Guild Award
for original screenplay theyselected A Real Pain and Anora,
(10:14):
which we're saying are locks fora nomination, but they rounded
out the list with the two hitsfrom the summer Challengers and
Civil War and lastly Mild Ass,and I think we can both agree
that, unfortunately, mild ass isprobably a little too far
behind to make up this groundalthough it's an excellent film
and it's a wonderful script.
(10:34):
We both really enjoyed thatmovie.
A lot right but you know, hereare two titles that cross over
with bafta and you havechallengers and civil war.
Is maybe that painting apicture to you that maybe the
best films to steal?
That fifth spot is eitherChallengers or Civil War.
Is that what you're thinking?
Jules (10:53):
I think that's possible.
If anything, I think it bringsabout another conversation and I
know we'll touch on it eithernow or very soon on this idea
that this category really doeswelcome and is very often that
you see a veteran in theoriginal screenplay lineup and
this year we have very fewoptions from which to pick for
(11:15):
that spot.
And the Writers Guild didinclude a veteran.
They did.
They included Alex Garland forCivil War.
Yeah, surprisingly, otheroptions that exist are Mike Lee,
for Hard Truth is one.
Joseph (11:29):
The team from Saturday Night Saturday.
Jules (11:30):
Night is another one, but in general there are very few
options, very few viable ones,yeah, and so it's interesting
that even the Writers Guildfound a spot for a veteran and
it being a surprising spot likeCivil War Right, it certainly
makes me think that A thewriters branch is still going to
try to stick with that stat andhave a veteran in the lineup,
(11:52):
and also that Civil War lookslike a good person to fill that
slot, a good contender to fillthat slot.
Joseph (11:59):
Well, I'll say this about both films.
First of all, for challengers,it has that golden globe
nomination.
It's well regarded amongstwriters.
It was really celebrated andspotlighted amongst writers when
it came out.
I remember ryan johnson wastweeting about a great movie
great movie and it's also amovie that sort of plays with
this archetype of you know,sports movie as metaphor for
other things and relationshipsand and sexual relationships and
(12:19):
intimate relationships andcharacter studies and that's
been sort of recognized before.
I remember bull durham, Ibelieve, did well here in this
category to the screenplaycategory, so it seems like the
kind of film that would befodder for writers.
On top of that, the writer whowas really just starting out in
his career he had two moviesthis year with luca right, right
, and so maybe writers are awareof that and that helps push him
(12:41):
across the line for the morecelebrated, the more prominent
title at this point, which isChallengers right, right, but
maybe as a disadvantage is thathis career is still very much in
the beginning stages, right,which could be a reason why the
branch looks elsewhere, possiblyI think.
(13:03):
also he's in a relationship withthe writer of past lives and I
don't know if that's going to besomething that voters are aware
of or not aware of a celinesong, I believe.
So I don't know if that's goingto be an element or not.
It's just an interesting tidbit.
But then you have civil war,right, and alex garland has been
nominated before.
In fact, ex Machina was widelynominated within the Academy.
(13:24):
So he's a Writers Guild Awardnominee this year for Civil War
and he made that long list andwe've talked about it all year.
That fifth spot.
According to our research andour stats it should be a veteran
and unfortunately this yearwe've been very thin on them.
But here you go.
I was shocked to see Civil Waron this list over titles that I
(13:45):
thought had momentum for them asthe year closed, and that
included Heretic, which waslisted at BAFTA.
That included a movie like BabyGirl, which had just opened up
over Christmas and was doingspectacularly.
So I was really surprised tosee Civil War here.
And you know what this seemedlike the kind of guild where if
Saturday night, as a sort ofveteran spot, was going to hit
(14:06):
anywhere, it would definitelyhit here.
So the idea that the guild hadroom for a veteran makes me feel
like the Oscars is going tohave room for a veteran and the
fact that of all the choicesthey decided on Civil War, I
think might make it the bestcandidate.
It did cross over into BAFTA aswell.
Unfortunately, I don't thinkthe support for Saturday Night
(14:28):
materialized, but I did think atthe beginning of the year, or
rather the beginning of the fall, that there's just so much
respect for the topic amongstwriters, the topic of making the
show and making art, and ofcourse, a lot of writers who
have crossed over and have arelationship, a personal
relationship, a professionalrelationship with Saturday Night
(14:49):
Live, that I thought it wouldhave been able to sort of land
here and possibly sneak into theOscar in that veteran spot.
Jules (14:54):
If that's not the case, I think that Civil War is
sounding like a really goodoption right, I think that's
true, but I think that'ssomething that's complicating
things is that, with no clearveteran to take that spot, there
is a lot of other films that Ithink might be perceived by the
branch as being one of the few,one of the few ways that they
(15:15):
can spotlight this movie.
Uh, for example, challengers.
Some writers may feel like,well, you know, if I don't
nominate Challengers, maybe itdoesn't get, maybe it walks away
with no nominations.
Some writers might feel thatway about Heretic, which I think
got the WGA nomination correct.
Joseph (15:31):
No, it only got the BAFTA longlist mention.
Jules (15:33):
Right.
Some writers might feel thatway about Heretic.
Some writers will certainlyfeel that way about All we
Imagine is Light.
So when you have all thesetitles that are competing for
the same kind of voting block, apassionate block that wants to
highlight one of the few waysthat they can highlight one of
these movies, then maybe you getinto a trickier territory of
(15:53):
you know no, coalescing into onepassion vote, coalescing into
one passion vote One movie thatI left off there, that I think
we should certainly talk aboutand that's in that group of
movies as possibly being a filmthat generates a passionate
voting block.
The question is how big?
And that's September five,which, if you see the movie, I
(16:15):
think you can certainly seewriters respecting this film,
liking this film.
It's a very thought provokingfilm with its themes, um, and I
can see a lot of writers goingfor it if they saw the movie.
Um, which is again a bigquestion mark.
Um, the PGA nomination gives mesome kind of reassurance that
(16:36):
the film is being watched.
Are writers watching it enough?
I don't know.
I saw that movie and I feltlike writers would really attach
to the themes that that film istalking about.
I think it juggles, uh thecrisis, as well as character
development, really well in thatmovie, and it's a very layered
(16:57):
film um contemplating uh themeslike media and ethics and media,
the role of the spectator.
So I think those are all umaspects of the film that I think
writers would gravitate towards, and so I think that that is a
very dark horse.
To make a surprise mention hereI know it's not on the bafta
long list I know it's donepretty poorly overall.
(17:21):
Again, they did get that pganomination pretty late, but
maybe that's some sort ofindication.
So I think a film to reallywatch out for here in place of a
veteran not seeing as we don'thave that many to choose from
and it's sort of splinteredoverall is a film like
septemberth.
Joseph (17:38):
I agree with what you're saying.
I believe that September 5thunfortunately has not had the
energy to pop up in enoughplaces.
It's not on that Babs AlongList, it's not at the Guild
Awards and it's been quietoverall.
But that PGA nomination inrecent days should be very
telling.
I think you and I researchedand what's going most for
(17:59):
September 5th is that it's veryrare over the past few years to
find a PGA nominee in thatextended list.
That gets absolutely shut out.
Yeah, exactly it doesn't need ascreenplay category.
You know movies like the Whaleand Black Panther, wakanda
Forever.
They end up in actingcategories and tech categories
beyond Best Picture.
(18:19):
But even if you don't land BestPicture, it is very rare these
last few years to be on thatlist and get nothing, and I
think that this category ispossibly thin enough for
September 5th to land here atminimum and I think that's going
for it and beyond that.
I also think the last few yearswe've seen these nominees for
(18:39):
Best picture drama at the GoldenGlobes.
It's very difficult again forthem not to show up somewhere.
You have to think aboutsomething like Bobby or the
Great Debaters back in 2007,2006,.
Both of them at the hands ofthe Weinstein company.
So very much sort of you know,the Weinstein hands sort of
manipulate the conversation orguiding the conversation in ways
(19:02):
that maybe weren't very organic.
But the fact that September 5this on both the PGA list and the
Golden Globe drama list lead meto believe that it's going to
be virtually impossible for itto walk away empty-handed, and
this category seems ripe for itsinclusion although it would
sort of ruin our sort of statand that stat.
Just to reiterate that stat goesback to 2001.
(19:24):
Every year, but 2001, I believe, the original screenplay
category has had a writer thatwas nominated beforehand for an
academy award since firstscreenplay ever, yeah, ever
since 2001.
And in 2001, if remember, thenominees were Amelie, memento,
monsters Ball, the RoyalTenenbaums and Gosford Park, all
(19:47):
of them first-time nominees.
So no veteran there.
And I think the only realveteran from the sort of
screenplay category that reallyhad a shot was possibly the Coen
brothers.
For the man who Wasn't there, Ithink at that point the Coen
brothers were sort of hittingthis moment where they were
being overlooked by the academy.
The man who wasn't therebeautiful film nominated for
(20:07):
cinematography but missed thatsort of veteran spot in
screenplay and maybe that's thesituation we're in now, but I do
want to bring in one lastveteran who I think he doesn't
really need very much to end upon this list.
That's the esteem and respecthe has from his colleagues, and
that's Mike Lee for Hard Truths,right, yeah, absolutely.
Jules (20:25):
I would love for Hard Truths to be nominated here.
It's one of my favorite filmsof the year.
It's a beautiful script.
It's a beautiful film.
Mike Lee is no stranger tobeing recognized.
It's actually odd, the Mike Leefilm that isn't recognized for
anything.
Right, it's rare, um, and evenwhen his performances or his
films don't do well overall, hestill manages a screenplay
(20:46):
nomination.
Um, I think the film was comingout at a tricky time, was
coming out late.
Um, bleaker street it's bleakerstreet.
During its release, very soonaround that time you had the LA
wildfires, so I don't know ifenough people were paying
attention.
I know I saw Barry Jenkinsdoing a.
Joseph (21:03):
Q&A.
Jules (21:04):
I saw Greta Gerwig doing a Q&A and that just speaks to
the respect that that filmmakerhas in this community.
Joseph (21:11):
He also won the National Board of Review which has been
great at getting their winnersinto whatever screenplay
category they win.
Jules (21:18):
Correct, and so you know, know, I think his inclusion
here would be uh great, it wouldbe beautiful.
I'm not sure it's going tohappen again, I'm just not sure
that it got enough eyeballs onit, um, and maybe that film
shows up elsewhere, which we'llget into, uh later.
Um, but yeah, what do you think?
Joseph (21:38):
I.
I think that if it does get in.
We know it had interviews inthe couple of days leading up to
the final Oscar ballots beingdue.
Greta Gerwig was there, barryJenkins was there.
I believe those interviewsmight have been conducted on the
East Coast and we talk aboutthat idea about the wildfire,
(22:00):
sort of you know, being top ofmind and top of priority for a
lot of west coast voters.
I wonder if mike lee does showup there, if sort of the east
coast voters that could sort ofreally resonate with his work,
if maybe there's just going tobe enough support from them and
enough respect for sort of thaticonic cinema to get Mike Lee
(22:22):
into this race, where I do thinkwe don't have much veteranship.
I mean, even R2-Lock Sean Bakerhas been making films since
2000,.
But Jesse Eisenberg, this isonly his second film and this is
only the second film of thesubstance writer Cora Lee, and
it's really only the third filmof the substance uh, writer
Coralie, and it's really onlythe third film for uh, brady
(22:43):
Corbett and Mona, it's only hersecond screenplay, I believe.
Uh, so I think someone of hisesteem might just be able to
pull off that veteran spot.
Jules (22:53):
That is a really good point.
And so, to that point, um,those are my predicted five
right now a Nora real pain.
So, to that point, those are mypredicted five right now Onora
Real Pain, the Brutalist, theSubstance.
And in that last spot, becauseI think the film shouldn't walk
out empty-handed, and this isactually the best place for this
film to pop up, I'm going, withSeptember 5, to be that last
(23:14):
screenplay, original screenplayspot.
Those are my five, and myspoiler would be Mike Lee for
Heart Truths.
Joseph (23:21):
I think I would go with the exact same five as well
Onora, A Real Pain, theSubstance, the Brutalist and
September 5.
And my spoiler would also beMike Lee.
I'm really hesitant to leaveoff a veteran and I'm very
tempted to think that there'sprobably just too many
nominations coming to theBrutalist.
(23:44):
That makes me feel like we maybe possibly looking at a final
nomination reveal that has BradyCorbett in director and Coralie
snubbed and Coralie inscreenplay and Brady Corbett,
anda snubbed from screenplay infavor of a veteran, in favor of
a piece that is possibly morewriter friendly that's
(24:08):
interesting, I think that's agood point, I think that can uh,
that seems like something thatcould definitely happen.
Jules (24:13):
Um, okay, so we have more or less the same five in the
spoiler, and so let's move onnow to best adapted screenplay,
which is a tricky category,trickier than original
screenplay in many ways, I think, off the top of my head.
In my opinion, there are twolocks and one extreme likely.
(24:34):
The extreme likely one we'llget into in a minute, is kind of
odd for a particular reason,but I want to say that the locks
are conclave and a completeunknown for.
For best adapted screenplay,and the the strange likely is
emilia paris, because it's amusical, and this, the writers
branch, has really stepped awayfrom nominating musicals in this
(24:56):
category for a long time.
I believe the last time thatthey nominated a screenplay and
adapted was Chicago in 2002 andwas the eventual Best Picture
winner, and an originalscreenplay was La La Land in
2016.
And I think both of those filmsstand out to me in a manner that
is attention calling, becausethe musical numbers in those
(25:21):
films are sort of they exist,separate from the dialogue and
the plot that's developing.
So there's sort of you know, adedicated moment to this song
that's being performed, but inAmoeba Perez and in Wicked they
follow more of a traditionalmusical sort of structure, in
(25:42):
that, you know, there's a lot ofsing-talk and I think writers
tend to at least in the modernage, they tend to like that less
.
That's why you won't see a filmlike Les Miserables land on this
as for screenplay, despitegetting several nominations land
on this as for screenplay,despite getting several
nominations.
And so I think it's odd to seea film like Amelia Perez do as
(26:04):
well in screenplay, consideringthose factors we mentioned, but
it's done really well.
It's odd to get a film, amusical, nominated in the best
screenplay category in theGlobes, and it managed that.
It's gotten the BAFTAnomination.
I mean, the Paris seems like aforce to be reckoned with.
(26:26):
As a whole, it seems to be afilm that's going to do really
well on Oscar nomination morningand so, taking all those things
into account, as odd as it is,I think that Emilia Perez will
break the streak that has beenthere in this category since
2002 and in the originalscreenplay category since 2016,
(26:50):
of being a proper musical thatis nominated for screenplay.
Joseph (26:56):
I agree that it is a very tough call because, again,
I think writers this isn't the1950s anymore or the 1960s
anymore and writers have beenvery skeptical about inviting
musicals into this category.
There's something about in amusical such as Emilia Perez
(27:17):
when they are sort of expressingthe story through song.
Well, as a writer, the way youexperience that and the way you
sort of analyze that is okay.
Well, is that lyrics or is thatdialogue?
And the writer is responsiblefor one more than the other,
possibly both, but certainly forone.
(27:37):
You credit the dialogue to thewriter, you credit the dialogue
to the writer and you credit thelyrics to the lyricists.
Sometimes the writer directorhas a hand in the lyrics, but as
a writer, I think you'relooking for dialogue and I think
that the creativity of AmeliaPerez is really going for it.
I think it's very innovativeand different and it's going to
strike a lot of writers.
But I do think it still hasthat element of sort of singing
(28:02):
songing its own right sort ofyou know dialogue that's going
to be a turnoff to some of them.
Add to that that the actualsource material is somewhat
anonymous and somewhat vague.
I think that that might also bea factor here, right?
Because I I do do think thatwriters, especially in the
adapted screenplay category andwe'll talk about this with other
(28:22):
contenders they're not justanalyzing you know the work that
the screenwriter did, and thatthey're not just analyzing the
story and the elements of thescreenplay, but they're also, to
a certain extent, judging thematerial you're coming from,
right.
Jules (28:36):
Right.
Joseph (28:39):
So, you know, a very popular work that's.
That's going to factor in.
If it's, uh, a more anonymouswork, that's probably going to
factor in as well.
Right?
The other thing, I think, isthat emilia perez, I think
they're crediting jacques odiardfor the script here, and I
think that there was a littlebit of a collaboration with
others, other french writers whoI think are a little bit more
prominent in France, possiblyinternationally.
(29:00):
So I do think a lot ofinternational writers are going
to really push this titletowards the top.
To me it's more the Americanwriters.
Are the American writers, andcertainly the American
independent writers, are theygoing to list this title high
enough?
Because not only is it sureit's a very creative title, but
not only is it a musical whereit has elements that may be a
(29:20):
turnoff, like lyrics instead ofdialogue, but it's also somewhat
messy messy structurally andmaybe it's not something that a
writer is going to want tonominate.
Again, writers tend to be thatsort of branch where they're
really looking for somethinglike authenticity, and so that
may be a factor here.
So I'm not entirely sold thatit's going to be able to break,
(29:44):
you know, that streak or thatdry spell, and to that point.
I will say the last two filmsto do it, and that's 2002 and
2016, so that's 14 years between, and this year would be 2016 to
2024.
That's almost 10.
The last films to do it camefrom academy award nominated
writers right and in billconan's case.
An academy award winning writerright, and that may just be.
(30:05):
The difference is that jacquesariard has not been embraced by
the academy.
They did not nominate a prophet, or russ and bone or their
sisters brothers for screenplayright, I think that's a really
good point.
Jules (30:18):
Yeah, that's a good point , and on a similar note, I think
the same is true for Wicked,another musical that some people
think might have a shot herefor screenplay.
I don't think again that Ithink the branch is moving away
from highlighting musicaladaptations, certainly Broadway
musical adaptations, and in theevent that they were open to it,
(30:41):
I highly doubt that there wouldbe two.
The last time that there wereseveral, I believe, was in the
50s with Interrupted Melody,always Fair Weather and Seven
Little Foys, which got nominatedin 1955 in an original
screenplay 1964 too.
Joseph (30:58):
Mary Poppins, yes, exactly.
Jules (31:01):
And so it's been a minute , and so I highly doubt that
they would highlight both ofthem.
So I think Amita Perez'sstrength in this category really
goes to Wicked's detriment.
Joseph (31:13):
Yeah.
Jules (31:14):
I don't know if you agree .
Joseph (31:15):
I agree with that.
I think 1964 is the last timeyou had two musicals in
screenplay.
They both happened to be BestPicture nominees.
Interestingly enough, I believeone of them was based on the
musical my Fair Lady, and MaryPoppins was a musical adaptation
of a literary text, not unlikeCamila Perez.
But I do think that there justis not room for both since 1964.
Jules (31:38):
Right Perez, but I do think that there just is not
room for both since 1964.
Right, and also two films that Ilike to talk about together
because they have a similarissue, is Sing Sing and Nickel
Boys.
In that, you know, they'veunderperformed in this award
season and screenplay seems tobe one of the only categories,
or one of the very fewcategories, where they can get
spotlighted, especially a filmlike nickel boys, which doesn't
(32:02):
have an acting contender oracting contenders to sort of
prop up, while sing sing doeshave that possibility at.
Those two films, I think, havea good chance of making this
category on that basis alone,them being, uh, two critically
acclaimed films.
Certainly, nickel Boys is oneof the most revered films of the
year and, this being one of thefew spots where they can
(32:24):
actually get a spotlight, Ithink that'll go a long way to
getting those films thisnomination.
Again, nickel Boys should workout with something, considering
that it's one of the mostcritically acclaimed films of
the year and it got that goldenglobe nomination for best
picture.
Um, and same thing with singsing.
Joseph (32:43):
They should get something and this is the
perfect place opportunity to doso well, I agree with that and
and to that point you know wetalked about that streak that
bafta has incorporating all 10screenplay nominees.
On the adapted adapted side,the nominees for BAFTA were A
Complete Unknown and Conclave,which we're calling Lox.
They did include Emilia Perez,which is a very positive sign,
(33:07):
although they did nominateMoulin Rouge for original
screenplay in 2001.
And then their final two spotsthey rounded out the list with
both Nickel Boys and.
Sing Sing In the case of NickelBoys, it was its only nomination
and I think it was its onlylong list mention, I believe.
So sing sing had a couple ofmentions and it was actually
able to get a couple nominationsas well, but it did land in
(33:27):
adapted screenplay and so, as wesaid, bafta is really good at
getting at least four nominees,three to four nominees among
their screenplay nominees, butamong their, their long list
they should have all five.
And if you want to hear for asecond, who their other films
were, the films that didn't makeit, there are a couple of films
, or some films that I think wecan both agree are a bridge too
(33:49):
far, and that's something likeNight Bitch, the Outrun and Lee.
Those were shortlisted or longlist, I should say, for adapted
screenplay, but there's verylittle traction for any of those
films to get in.
Jules (34:01):
The final two were Wicked , which we spoke a little bit
about, and then I think the lastone we have to speak a little
bit about, which is Dune, parttwo yeah, exactly, and Dune part
two is a question mark because,following the success of Dune,
certainly financially, but alsowith the first Dune, with
nominations and wins you wouldthink that you know they would
(34:24):
cap off this chapter of DenisVilleneuve and his filmmakers,
his crew, for Dune as afranchise.
They would cap it off with anomination for several things,
including screenplay.
It got an eye for screenplaylast time, despite some critics
saying that you know, know theyweren't the biggest fans of the
script.
They got an eye for script lasttime.
But it's worth wondering if thewriters branch, like some, some
(34:48):
so many other categories for,uh, dune, if they're going to
feel like you know, been there,done that exactly.
We did that recently.
We can highlight new work.
Joseph (34:57):
Yeah, um, we don't have to nominate the same writers for
part two exactly so that's the,that's the handicap for dune
part two right now yeah, you andI had talked about this idea of
a symmetrical sort of nature tothe nominations you receive,
and so it looks like this yearyou might very well see dune
reap nominations in categorieswhere it's an absolute favorite,
(35:18):
like cinematography, andcategories where it lost right
unnecessarily that first time itlost a competitive race, for
example in makeup, and then inraces where they were left off
altogether, and that's somethinglike director right for denevo
new, rather than thosecategories where it was already
nominated, like adaptedscreenplay or costume design
(35:40):
right.
So I think you're right.
I think something that's reallyhurting Dune 2 is just the fact
that again splitting the movieinto two and this is something
that Warner Brothers will haveto debate how effective it was
it sort of has watered down theamount of success that this
second part can have right nowto sort of to sort of piggyback
on that.
Not only was dune too longlisted by bafta, the writers
(36:01):
guild award nominees were acomplete unknown nickel boys,
wicked dune, part two and theirlast nominee was a bit of a
surprise, even though you and Ihad figured that this movie
would be a factor at some pointin the race.
I don't know if you think it'sa little too late, but I don't
think you can ever dismiss thiswriter.
And that's hitman with richardlinklater and glenn powell right
(36:24):
, I thought that that would makemore noise.
Jules (36:26):
Certainly it was pretty quiet.
I think that that uh, thatnomination in the uh writers
guild has a lot to do with theamount of disqualifications that
were involved yeah so I thinkyou can't discount that that's a
film that sort of has fallenunder the radar alongside
another film like the Room NextDoor, which you would think a
Pedro Almodovar film that winsVenice would land somewhere.
(36:49):
But it's just been way tooquiet.
Joseph (36:51):
First English language film, his first English language
film yes.
Jules (36:55):
Feature film yeah, and you would think that that would
land somewhere, but it hasn't.
It just hasn't penetrated thatconversation strongly enough and
I thought for the longest timeit was a big shoo-in for this
category.
I could see writers liking thethemes that Paige was tackling
in this film, and I know writersare fans of Pedro Almodovar in
(37:22):
this film, um, and I knowwriters are fans of pedro
amoldovar, um, but apparentlyit's just not.
It's just not going in thatdirection.
Joseph (37:25):
It's a little too quiet.
Well, something going for it isthe fact that if you have to
sort of you know, determinewhich movie is going to be more
to their liking, you have a veryunconventional adaptation in
nickel boys, and then you have avery unconventional adaptation
in Nickel Boys, and then youhave a much more conventional
adaptation, albeit very artistic, very much in Almodovar style
in.
The Room Next Door and you knowwe've talked about Sony Picture,
(37:47):
classics, magic throughout theseason and other categories.
They have the Room Next Doorand they are very passionate
about campaigning on mode of art.
It did not make the BAFTA longlist in any category, which is a
bad sign.
But it did not make the baftalong list in any category, which
is a bad sign.
But it was nominated at theeuropean film awards and we've
talked about possibly a greaterimpact, a greater impact from
the international community.
And sony pictures has anothertitle that's eligible in this
(38:10):
category and that seems like asurefire nominee for foreign
language film, and foreignlanguage films have been
embraced by the writing branchof the academy and this year we
have the very unconventionalemilia perez, which happens to
be a musical.
But then you have this otheralmost surefire nominee for
foreign language film, I'm stillhere.
That is a really solid script,a more conventional script, but
(38:33):
it's really well done, reallysolidly written, and you kind of
have to wonder, maybe if theydecide to go elsewhere and look
for another type of foreignlanguage film.
I'm Still here might be theperfect option and it does have
Sony Picture Classics behind it,much like the Almodovar sort of
could represent a foreign vote,even though it's an English
(38:53):
language film.
And we've talked about thisidea we had mentioned it that
sometimes you're judging thework that you're adapting and
the work of I'm still here,whether it's the work of sigrid
nunez for a room next door orthe pulitzer winning work of
nickel boys, and what is anunconventional film that might
be able to eclipse the moreanonymous work that emilia perez
(39:17):
is based on right.
Jules (39:18):
I think that's a really good point.
I think I'm still here as a bigdark horse in this category.
Well, with all that in mind, Iwould say that right now, I'm
going to go with the BAFTA 5 forbest adapted screenplay.
Conclave, a Complete Unknown,amelia Perez, sing Sing and
Nickel Boys and my spoiler isI'm still here.
Joseph (39:41):
I think that's very interesting.
I think I would go with thesame the BAFTA 5.
Also, it would be a nominationfor Nickel Boys which, as I said
, with that Golden Globe Dramanomination, it should clock in
somewhere.
So I would go Conclave, sing,sing A Complete Unknown Nickel
Boys, and I guess I would haveto include Emilia Perez, even
(40:05):
though my gut is telling me thatI will not make it at the end,
that the musical factor wouldjust be too much and my spoiler
I think I'm Still here is anexcellent choice.
But if not I'm Still here, thenI think the other great choice
would be Amadovar for the RoomNext Door.
Jules (40:20):
Right, okay, well, that is our predictions, our final
predictions for the bestoriginal screenplay and the best
adapted screenplay categories.
You can check out our final,final, final predictions on
Twitter at Academy Anon.
Thank you for tuning in.
Thank you for joining us.
I'm Jules.
Joseph (40:40):
And I'm Joseph.
You've been listening toAcademy Anonymous.
Jules (40:48):
And it's been a pleasure.
The music on this episode,entitled Cool Cats, was
graciously provided by KevinMacLeod and incompetechcom,
licensed under Creative Commonsby Attribution 3.0.
Http//creativecommonsorg.
Licenses by 3.0.
Joseph (41:17):
Disclaimer the Academy Anonymous podcast is in no way
affiliated or endorsed by theAcademy of Motion Picture Arts
and Sciences.
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