Oscar Season 2024-2025; Final Predictions for Oscar Night, Part 1; Will the Academy spread the wealth or can box-office champ "Wicked" feast on craft categories; "Emilia Perez" flirting with a shut-out; Brazil and Latvia chase Oscar History

Episode Transcript
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Jules (00:14):
Hey, welcome back to Academy, anonymous, I'm Jules.
And I'm Joseph and on thisepisode, the long-awaited
episode, we're going to betackling our final Oscar
predictions.
It's been a bumpy road.
It's been a bumpy road.
It's been a chaotic season.
I'm looking forward to sort ofwrapping it up in a way.

Joseph (00:33):
It's fun there's not going to be any Oppenheimer
sweep this year.
So that's a question mark on agood number of categories.

Jules (00:39):
There's a few categories that are, you know, very
puzzling at the moment.
Anyone could win, or ratherbetween the two or three people
who are leading the pack any oneof those could win.
And, um, I think there's somepopular categories that are
extremely up in the air.
Um, so it might.
It's going to be very excitingto find out what happens.
The part of you just wants tojust already know you know what

(01:01):
the what the result is, but okay, so we're going to start our
final predictions and we'regoing to start with the category
of best documentary feature.
The nominees are Black Box,sugarcane, northern Land,
porcelain War and Soundtrack toa Coup de Top.
I would say that the favoritein this category currently is
Northern Land.
Um, surprisingly so, it didlose the BAfta um a couple

(01:28):
couple days, a couple weekendsago, and that was surprising
that it went to superman instead.
Um, superman was actually thewinner of the producers guild
award for documentary, and thelast time there was that potent
combination between a BAFTA winand a Producers Guild win was my

(01:48):
Octopus Teacher Right, whichwon.
Which ended up winning and was asurprise for many people when
it won.
The thing that's benefitingNorthern Land in this moment is
that Superman is not nominated.
Yeah.
Would it have been nominated?
I think it would have been ahuge spoiler to steal the spot,
or maybe the favorite, probablyPossibly, but it would have been

(02:09):
a huge spoiler at least tosteal the spot from Northern
Land, considering that that filmis not there.
We looked at the InternationalDocumentary Association as well
as the Cinema Eye Honors.
Right.
Two important institutions thatare good to look at for
documentaries when you're tryingto predict the winner for the
Documentary Feature Award at theOscars, and no Other Land won

(02:32):
both feature prizes in those twoorganizations.
The last time that adocumentary won both the
International DocumentaryAssociation as well as the
Cinema Eye Honors Award for BestFeature and did not win the
Oscar was we went back to 2010and there were only three films

(02:54):
that come up All that Breathes,Flee and the Look of Silence,
and so suffice it to say thatthat's a pretty good combination
to win those two awards.
It is surprising that the filmwas not nominated for a
Director's Guild Award and wasnot nominated for a Producer's
Guild Award.

Joseph (03:12):
Yeah.

Jules (03:14):
And that would point to some confusion on my part.
I wonder why it wasn't includedin those categories.
I wonder if the fact that thefilm doesn't have a distributor
had an important part to play inhaving it snubbed in those
groups.
I think because it doesn't havea distributor, it might not have
had sort of that dedicatedcampaign to maybe get those

(03:35):
nominations yeah exactly, but Iwant to say that right now, the
timeliness of this documentaryis going to make it a very
popular choice amongst voters.
There is a part of me thatwonders, after all the upheaval
of Jonathan Glazer's speech lastyear at the Oscars.

(03:56):
If there's a section of theAcademy that would rather not
touch this.
Really, you know timelyconflict and political situation
that's going on in our world.
But I think that the desire tospotlight this conflict in a
really powerful manner is goingto trump that sort of hesitation

(04:18):
and that it's going to be aspotlight for the film,
hopefully in it winning theAcademy Award for Best
Documentary Feature.
It helps it to be a spotlightfor the film, hopefully in it
winning the Academy Award forBest Documentary Feature.
It helps it solidify adistributor so it can come out
here in the United States.
And I think, again, thetimeliness of the topic makes it
a very compelling choice forvoters and, in the absence of a

(04:39):
film like Superman, to stealvotes from it.
I think that it's a safe winnerhere.
I think the Academy and thedocumentary section, the
documentary category likes to gofor timeliness topics.
I would say that the last twoyears we've sort of been the

(05:00):
winners have been related to theUkraine, the Ukraine war that's
going on.
We had in 2022, navalny won.
Just last year, we had 20 Daysof Maripool, and so one film
that's in this category that Ithink stands to be the best
possible option as a threat toNorthern Ireland would be

(05:20):
Porcelain War, but again, that'sdealing with the Ukraine
conflict and the Academy has thelast two.
That's dealing with the Ukraineconflict and the Academy has
the last two years spotlightedthe Ukraine conflict.
I think they're going to reallywant to spotlight the
Israel-Palestine conflict atthis moment rather than keeping
on with that Ukraine trend.
So I'm going to say right nowthat my prediction for this

(05:42):
category is going to be no otherland.
I will also point out that,even though no Other Land did
not get a DGA nomination andPorcelain War won the DGA award
for best documentary feature, Iwill say that you know, the DGA
is a little bit spotty.

Joseph (06:18):
The DJ is a little bit spotty.
The last 13 years they'vegotten about half right.
So the fact that and how theacademy may opt to not touch it
at this moment, but there are somany people within the academy
that are very passionate aboutthe issue until the swinton was
speaking about it the other dayand just with recent
announcements in terms of howthe united states is going to,
you know, handle the whole causeof conflict I can only imagine

(06:40):
that adding fuel to the fire.
So I definitely think you'reright.
I would agree that's thefavorite and I think it would be
the smart prediction.
I will say that there's a filmsort of in between that to me
wouldn't be that surprising ifit did pull a surprise win,
which is Sugarcane.
I remember last year when Killsof the Flower Moon sort of put
a spotlight on indigenous people.
That film walked away with zeroand.

(07:01):
Sugarcane is possibly a way tosort of put a spotlight again on
the issue that indigenouscommunities have faced
throughout the world andcertainly here in North America.
So I would not be surprised if,at the end, something that
they're more comfortable talkingabout and that they're going to
feel is certainly worthy ofthat spotlight is possibly
sugarcane.

Jules (07:19):
That's a really good point.
I'm going to say right now thatmy spoiler is actually going to
be Porcelain War.
I really like that Dga one.
The dga one is big and it's wona few um audience awards along
the way, so it's somewhat of acrowd pleaser, if you can even
call it that um, and so I'mgonna say that that's my spoiler
.

Joseph (07:36):
You're gonna say that it's sugarcane I'm gonna say
you're right, I'm gonna go withno other land for the win, and
then my spoiler is gonna besugarcane okay perfect.

Jules (07:45):
Okay, now let's move on to the category of best
international film.
That's a really fascinating,very interesting category
category.

Joseph (07:51):
Uh well, let me let me start by saying who the nominees
were.
The nominees were emilia perezfrom france.
Flow from latvia first timethat country's nominated.
The girl with the needle fromdenmark I'm still here from
brazil.

Jules (08:05):
And the seed of the sacred fig from germany,
although that film, as we allknow, is, you know, made in iran
, submitted by germany right,and so I would say that
initially, or just canvassingthe category, the two films that
I think stand the best chanceof winning this category are the
two films that are also thatalso happen to be not in for
Best Picture, which is FromBrazil I'm Still here and From

(08:28):
France In the Appairs.
This category very much favorsa film if it's not in for Best
Picture.

Joseph (08:36):
First time, I think, we have two of those in Best
Picture, I think.

Jules (08:40):
That's the interesting case here, that we have two
options that we can go with Alate-breaking I'm still here
passion vote, which resulted ingetting a Best Picture
nomination at the last minute,and Amelia Perez, which started
out this sort of campaigns run,being at the very top of the
pile, the must-award Sort of thede facto favorite after sort of

(09:05):
had that huge sort of surgeinto the race exactly and having
pretty much kind of a nosediveafter the controversy of carlos
sofia gascon and also uh leadingup to that controversy, the
yeah, you know how upsetaudiences have been with uh
representation in the movie andthe people behind the film, the

(09:26):
makers of the film, exactly.

Joseph (09:27):
So the first initial controversy was just sort of you
know it, just sort of fueledinto all these other
controversies which essentiallysort of imploded the movie by
now Exactly.

Jules (09:38):
I will say that one of the very we're on a trend of the
BAFTA winner for bestinternational film being pretty
spot on with the Academy.
From last year to 2017, they'vegotten all the winners correct.
So the BAFTA if you won theBAFTA, you pretty much won the
Oscar.
Then it gets shoddy from 2017down.

(10:02):
We went all the way back to2000.
And there are several yearswhere they depart from the um
Academy and, interestinglyenough, most of the years when
they uh have different winners.
A trend is that they typicallyonly have one nominee in common
amongst the five BAFTA nomineesand the Oscar nominees, one or

(10:24):
two nominees in common, which ispretty low, um, and whenever
they've had more than two, sothree or more nominees in common
the BAFTA nominees and theOscar nominees they tend to have
the right winner.
And that's interesting becausethis year they do have three in
common.
They have um I'm still herethis year the sacred fig and

(10:44):
Amelia Paris.
Um, they Year the Sacred Figand Amelia Pears.
They don't have the Girl withthe Needle or Flow, and so,
going off of that pattern, itwould seem as though Amelia
Pears should win this category,right, I think, as you were
saying before, sort of blew upin everyone's face.
You know it was going to be thewinner in this category.

Joseph (11:05):
This was an easy category for it to win the most
nominated foreign language filmever.

Jules (11:09):
Now I do think that the stats are in Emilia Perez's
favor, but my gut is telling methat the late break passion for
I'm Still here is going to nabit the win in this category, and
if it does so, I'm predictingit will become brazil's.
It will be brazil's firstforeign language film.

(11:30):
Yeah, something else we'venoticed as a trend in this
category is this category tendsto favor, um, those kinds of
firsts at least lately they haveI mean the zone of interest was
a first time win for the unitedkingdom eda first time win for
poland right

Joseph (11:44):
uh, even Even Roma was actually the first win in this
category, I believe for Mexico,correct, and so, yeah, we've
been seeing that trend.
It doesn't always happen, butit's been a pretty sustained
energy Parasite.
For example, another BestPicture nominee that was the
first win for South Korea inthis category, so that might
play into what breaks the tiebetween both those films exactly

(12:05):
, and the last time that francewon this category has been a
while I believe it was 2015 formustang no, that was the last
time they were nominated oh, adecade ago, basically a decade
ago, was the last time they werenominated for mustang right
which, uh, france submission, uh, but a turkish?
um, they lost that year, right.
So I think the last time theyactually won was 1992.

Jules (12:27):
Handolshin.

Joseph (12:27):
Exactly A film that also garnered Catherine Deneuve a
nomination for Best Actress.
They won that category, theywon that year, 1992, but they
haven't won since then.
And you know, we know that theywere nominated for things like
Amelie and we also know they hadthis huge dry spell which
Amelia Perez sort of broke againa decade after Mustang.
Right.
Right.
So it was a big achievement forthem to be nominated.

(12:50):
It would be a big achievementfor them to win after so many
years yeah.
But I'm not sure that eclipsesthe idea of Brazil winning for
the first time ever.
I think Brazil's only beennominated five times and we know
, for example, thatter saezbrought a film to be nominated
from brazil as well for centralstation right he lost that award
right and, interestingly enough, there's an interesting

(13:11):
parallel there, because jacquesodiard, you know, got france
nominated for a profit in 2009,and so they're kind of almost
tied in that sense, as tworeally established, celebrated
filmmakers that now have theirsecond nominations in this
category.
Granted, you know, the othernomination for Jacques Audiard
is a film set in Mexico, withSpanish and English and no

(13:33):
French whatsoever.

Jules (13:33):
Yeah, and I think this is a category where the issues
that people have had pre-CarloSofia Gascon controversy of the
filmmakers behind the film, andauthenticity towards Mexican
culture, towards the transexperience I think this is the
category where we're reallygoing to see the fallout of all
of that.
I think so, yeah, and that'sgoing to have a big.

(13:54):
That's going to be a big reasonwhy the film loses this
category.
Right, I think what would havehelped is if the film had that
win in its sales, where it wasthe best picture possible,
favorite, riding off high of 13nominations.
Maybe the overall base of theAcademy could have overlooked
that, possibly, but consideringcircumstances, if anything, I
think those issues are going toresurface in a lot of voters'

(14:17):
minds and is going to take awayvotes from Amelia Perez and give
them to.
I'm Still here.

Joseph (14:24):
Which is unfortunate for their campaign, because this
has been one of the few awardsthat they've been sort of able
to hold on to.
Even throughout sort of thedownward swing of the movie.
They've been able to sort ofhold on to this and Zoe, but
this is really, I think,becoming questionable.
I mean back to your point abouthow the initial controversy in
and of itself about theauthenticity of the film might

(14:46):
be a major factor.
Here.
We're talking about a categorythat, as I said a little while
ago, finally recognized thefirst Mexican entry here in.
Roma.
Are they really going to want togive the second film, I think
set in Mexico, the foreignlanguage Oscar for a country
that is not Mexico?
And you talk about the transissue?
Well, this category was thefirst one to give the award to a

(15:06):
fantastic woman in 2017.
Yeah, so I think authenticityis going to be an important
factor here.

Jules (15:12):
I agree 100%, and so that's why I'm predicting that
it's going to be Brazil thatwins this category.
I'm still here.
I think Brazilians are going tobe ecstatic with that win, oh
my goodness.
And my spoiler would beprobably Emilio Perez, because
of its sweep prior to all this.
You know controversy occurring,that would be my spoiler, but I
feel pretty confident right now, predicting I'm still here as

(15:34):
the winner.
What about you?

Joseph (15:36):
I agree with you.
I think all the math ispointing to and I'm still here
upset, and Emilio Perez isprobably the spoiler here.

Jules (15:42):
Correct, perfect.
Okay, let's jump into animatedfeature.
The nominees are Flow, wallaceand Gromit.
Vengeance Most Foul Inside Out2, memoir of a Snail and the
Wild Robot.

Joseph (15:53):
Well, it's been sort of an interesting race right.
I mean, the critical darling ofthe year was sort of Flow.
Yeah.
We've had great entries fromother countries, including
Australia's as member of a snail, but sort of it was flow that
sort of captured all that energyfrom the critic circles, um,
and then it sort of really got ahuge sort of headwind when it
won that golden globe, which wasmajor, um, but unfortunately

(16:14):
kind of has slowed down a littlebit.
And I think the wild robot,which was a huge box office
success nothing like inside out2, but still an extraordinary
success financially, sort offound its footing in the race
right, winning major awardsthrough a number of guilds,
getting a bunch ofanti-nominations, not being
nominated exactly where itneeded to be, um, and then, as

(16:38):
the wild robot was sort of youknow holding, you know starting
to gather steam in the race,flow, unfortunately, I think,
had a major misstep when at theBAFTAs, where it was nominated
twice I believe it lost toWallace and Gromit, which was
nominated three times, and itwon two of those awards,
including animated film, and Ithink that was a bad sign.
I think it was a bad sign inparticular for Flow.

(17:00):
I think that was something thatFlow really needed to
capitalize on.
So for a large part part thediscussion has sort of been
about those two films, the wildrobot versus flow.
again lafayette's firstnomination, the animated field,
you know ever yeah and sort ofthe more artistic bend of a film
from janice.
But I think, unfortunately,without the supportFTA, without

(17:23):
sort of a more unanimousinternational support, that
you're going to see flowunfortunately fall short Because
there are going to be lovers ofthe Australian film industry
that are going to vote forMemoir of a Snail.
We know that.
Yeah, yeah.
There's going to be lovers ofthe British film industry that
are going to vote for Wallaceand Gromit, for waltz and gromit

(17:45):
, and then anyone who's a fan ofthe american industry, which is
sort of the bigger footprint,is either going to go to inside
out or the wild robot, and morelikely the wild robot, because
inside out 2 is a sequel rightand I don't think that pixar has
been very successful at, ordisney very successful at sort
of bridging the gap and having asequel win.
A lot of people have beendiscussing the idea that flow is
gonna fall on the steps of theboy in the heron, but I do think

(18:05):
that the boy in the heron oneof the reasons why it sort of
captured that award.
A big reason is because it didwin that BAFTA.
It had the BAFTA and the Globewin whereas Flo only has the
Globe win.
And I also think that if youlook at the race a little bit
deeper and you sort of analyzehow the boy in the heron was
able to pull off that victoryover across the Spider-Verse,

(18:27):
which was again an immenselyclose race, you had across the
Spider-Verse sort of triumph atthe Annie Awards and at the
Producers Guild and you had theGolden Globe and the BAFTA break
for the boy in the heron.
But the boy in the heron wassuch a massive global box office
success we're talking abouthundreds of millions of dollars

(18:47):
that it's easy to see how it wasa popular choice for a lot of
individuals.
Add to that the legacy of.
Miyazaki right, and the ideathat Miyazaki hasn't won an
award since winning in 2002,right.
And so when you add both ofthose things it starts to pick
up steam.

(19:07):
You know those two wins themoney, the Miyazaki legacy.
And then you add to the factthat Across the Spider-Verse was
so intentional and sort ofstating in the very film itself
that there was going to be moreSpider-Verse animated films.
It sort of decreased theurgency to sort of give the win
there, and I think that allthose factors had to be well

(19:28):
aligned to result in a a win formiyazaki's boy in the heron and
I don't see those factorslining up here.
I think the wild robot is anoriginal piece, or rather it's
not a sequel from dreamworks.
I DreamWorks hasn't won since,I believe 2005's Wallace and
Gromit, and I rememberDreamWorks initiated was sort of
the initiated champion in thiscategory in 2001 with Shrek.

(19:52):
So I think it would be a greatmoment.
This is also the mostnominations I believe that
DreamWorks has been able tocapture, with three nominations,
including nominations for scoreand nominations for sound.
I also think that the wildrobot you know, beyond being an
animal or you know such a hugeadversary being nominated for so

(20:13):
many Annie Awards and winningessentially all of them winning
the Producers Guild Award, butalso, you know, being at various
Guild Awards like, for example,the Art art directors guild and
winning that award at thevisual effects society was well
rewarded.
So I think there's so much loveand celebration for the film
from the american industry.
It's not a sequel, it's a goingto be an opportunity for

(20:37):
dreamworks to get back on thatstage and the filmmaker from
flow.
This is only his second filmyeah and if you look at the
number of films that have sortof bridged the gap and gone from
being the sort of art houseinternational films that get
nominated and win an Oscar forthe animated film, there are so

(20:57):
few.
I think Miyazaki may be theonly one, the only production
that's coming from anothercountry that's sort of able to
muster a win here, and Miyazakiis able to do it again with the
boy in the heron.
But if you look at the ideathat someone like Sylvain Chomet
for the triplets of Belleville,has yet to win, has another

(21:18):
film coming out next year I lookforward to it someone like Tom
Moore who's been nominated forWolfwalkers and the Secret of
Kells they haven't reallybridged the gap yet to claim a
victory here.
I think that unfortunately,this filmmaker, he's too young
and the film is not necessarilynotable enough yet for its
success at the box office,although, again, in its own

(21:39):
terms, it's been wonderfullysuccessful.
I think, it's made upwards of$15 million, which, which is
fantastic.
It's just nowhere near the 300million of the wild robot and
also, I think, something likethe 300 million that the boy in
the herring was able to getright so because of that I I
really do feel like this race isgoing to break for the wild
robot.

(21:59):
and I think the most definitivething for me is you know, when
you get nominations for the WildRobot in a category like sound,
a category that traditionallyyou know has 10 spots and has
been unified into five and ananimated film makes it into that
category, I think it's a bigdeal.
As far as I can tell, the onlyanimated film to be nominated in

(22:21):
that category and sort of losethis Oscar excuse me was never
even nominated for this Oscarwas the Polar Express.
I think the Polar Expressmanages nominations in the sound
categories when there was twoof them and it wasn't nominated.
But any film, animated filmthat's a sound nominee and an
animated film nominee, they tendto win.

(22:41):
And we kind of know that thenumber of nominations for a film
, including animated films, sortof signify how popular you are.
And so those three nominationsmean that the Wild Robot is
pretty popular across differentbranches and that really helps.
And then, at the same time, wealso know that Flo got two
nominations, which is great.
But if you look at it, thosetwo nominations are more

(23:02):
specialized because those arebranches that, let's say, are a
little bit more restricted intheir voters in terms of foreign
film, I think, and and animatedfilm, if you look at something
like flea, for example flea wasnominated for documentary film,
foreign film, animated film.
That's three nominations.
It's still lost in kanto, whichwas nominated for animated film

(23:23):
, song and score right Right.
Because I think the nominationsfor something like song or
score are going to benominations that are more
appealing to a larger group ofvoters, or represent possibly a
larger group of voters, thannominations for documentary and
foreign film, where sometimesyou have to opt in and other
times you know they're moreselected as to who they invite.

Jules (23:44):
I think those are really good points that you're
mentioning, fantastic points.
I would say I agree with you.
The fact that the wild robotwas able to snag a nomination in
sound design considering thatit's now a unified category,
there's less space, there's morecompetition and it was able to
manage that nomination, I think,speaks very highly to how well
liked that movie is.

(24:05):
Also getting that nominationfor score, finally, for Chris
Bowers yeah.
And so I agree with you.
I think all the cards arepointing to a huge amount of
love and respect and admirationfor that film, and that flow
just can't quite compete at thatlevel.

Joseph (24:25):
Right Just yet, and I think some voters are going to
look at it much like Flea andsay the win for flow is Latvia
finally being nominated forforeign film.
Yeah.
Is a Latvian production beingnominated for animated film?
Is this filmmaker who's ontheir second film being
nominated for animated film?
Right.

Jules (24:41):
And so I think some people are going to say well,
the victories are thenominations already Right and I
really like what you said alsoabout the consensus um pick
being sort of splintered betweenuh and more.
You know an international filmlike um uh memoir of a snail and
another uh, british film.
So that sort of consensus,foreign sort of group of voters

(25:09):
is now splintered and you losesome power there.
You lose some very much neededvotes there.
That's what I think too, and Ithink that's going to hurt Flo
as well.
I 100% agree, and so I agreewith you.
My prediction would be for theWild Robot to win and the
spoiler.

Joseph (25:23):
I think the strong second would probably be Flo 100
.

Jules (25:25):
I agree with that.
100, all right.
Now let's move on to thecategory of visual effects.

Joseph (25:30):
Right, the nominees are better man kingdom, kingdom of
the planet of the apes, wickeddune and alien romulus right,
yeah, and I think this categoryis a category that most people
have feel pretty confident about, sort of calcified here.
Um, really, the best twocomparisons we should look at
are the BAFTA awards and thevisual effects society.

(25:51):
At the BAFTA awards, four ofthese films were also nominated.
They only failed to recognizealien romulus and they ended up
giving the award to dune parttwo.
Um, really interesting, becauseover at the Visual Effects
Society, dune Part 2 wasnominated all over the place and
it dominated so many of itscategories.

(26:11):
But when the final award camefor the night the final award,
the biggest award, which is BestAchievement in Visual Effects
in a Photo Reel Feature theydecided not to give it to Dune.
Exactly, they gave it toKingdom of the Planet of the
Apes instead.
Now, between the twoorganizations, I would probably
argue that there's bettercomparisons of BAFTA in terms of

(26:32):
accuracy of how that crossesover with the Academy.
Remember, there's overlap inboth organizations and the
Visual Effects Society.
You know they don't always getit right.
I remember last year they gaveit to the creator right and um,
the eventual winner for theoscar, godzilla, was not even a
bafta nominee and it was onlynominated, I believe, for one

(26:53):
yeah one visual effects societyum award, which I believe it
lost.
And so the big winner at thevisual effects society, the
creator, didn't win the oscar,even though it was also a bafta
nominee nominee.
And you know, for example, theVisual Effects Society chose
something like the Lion King,whereas BAFTA and the Oscar
decided to go with 1917.
And so I just think that thereare better comparisons for BAFTA

(27:17):
, sort of foreshadowing what'sgoing to happen at the Oscars,
and so it seems to me like Dunewould probably be the film that
should be considered thefavorite.
Now, dune, I think, crosses alot of important t's in order to
get this win, which is usually.
This winner has some overlapwith production design, and dune
did manage to get thatnomination.
Um, also a sound nominee whichdoesn't.

(27:39):
Which doesn't hurt, um, andcertainly the best picture
nominee, right, but what's kindof here, if there is maybe an
angle to play, is that there isa second best picture nominee
here right.
And that's Wicked which is alsoa production design nominee and,
again, it's a film that wasn'treally well rewarded at the

(28:00):
Visual Effects Society, onlygarnering one nomination.
But you know, as I said,godzilla only got that one
nomination.
But you know, as I said,godzilla only got that one
nomination too, and just therewas enough enthusiasm to want to
give the award to the legacy ofgodzilla.
I believe that that led to thevictory.
At the same time, somethinglike bafta maybe was
foreshadowing that victory forgodzilla already right, because

(28:20):
bafta ended up giving the awardto poor things over the four
other films that were the actualnominees.

Jules (28:26):
That overlapped with the Oscars.

Joseph (28:28):
You know Poor Things was not nominated.
Right.
So when Poor Things is able tobeat the Creator and Mission
Impossible and Napoleon, it kindof shows you that none of those
four titles are really toopopular to even beat Poor Things
.
Right.
So if there just is enough favorfor Godzilla and the legacy of
Godzilla, godzilla will be ableto win that award, and so that

(28:50):
means that there's still achance.
I think, possibly for a moviewith one nomination, like
Kingdom of the Apes or Betterman, to possibly have an upset
here.
But they're both wetter films,they're both ape films, they're
both single nominee films.
So I think they're both apefilms, they're both single
nominee films, so I thinkthey're kind of going to split
each other's votes.
So I really do think it's goingto come down to dune versus
wicked right if wicked does endup edging this out, I think

(29:13):
there's only going to be twofactors that would determine
that, which is the first one isthat the visual effects team for
wicked is is really wellrecognized, in the sense that
they have numerous nominationsand have something like four for
a couple of them, and they haveyet to win versus the Dune team
.
A large number of them werealready recognized with a
victory for the first one.

(29:34):
And so I went back and I looked,and I and I went to look at how
many films in a series or asequel can sort of garner a win
here at the visual effects forthe visual effects category at
the Academy.
It's not often.
Yeah, I think the only twocomparisons I found were Avatar,
right, which was a few yearsago, but that's a wait between
2009 and 2022.

(29:55):
Right, and before then you havea film that won consecutively
back to back, a Best Picturenominee that won consecutively
back to back, and that was theLord of the Rings series, right,
One, two and three.
All of them one visual effectsback to back.
If Dune loses here, I think itwould be a factor of.

Jules (30:15):
I just gave it to.

Joseph (30:16):
Dune and I want to give it to something different.
Right now, possibly, wickedfeels like that different thing
that isn't going to vote split,because the two ape movies are
likely going to vote split witheach other and also it's not a
sequel and also it's not asequel yet you know, you know,
part two will end up being thesequel, the continuation, and so
I think the favorite here hasto be dune part two, and I'm

(30:37):
considering the spoiler to bewicked 100.

Jules (30:40):
I agree with everything you've said.
I would also consider Dune Part2 to be the favorite that's the
one I'm predicting as well andthe other Best Picture nominee,
because, I agree with you, thiscategory tends to favor films
that are not for Best Picture,and we have two this year.
The spoiler would definitely beWicked, but I feel pretty
comfortable about Dune Part 2,especially since I think this is

(31:02):
one of the few awards that Ithink Dune can win and its
overall tally at the Academy waspretty low.
Um unexpectedly only has fivenominations.
So if you really like to Duneand you'd like to give it
something because you are veryhappy with the way that that um
franchise wrapped up or, youknow, quote, unquote wrapped up,
um then you know this is one ofthe few places where I feel,

(31:25):
like you, you can give it thataward right.

Joseph (31:28):
the visual effects award right, I will say that you know
, as you, as you mentioned thatyou got me thinking that again,
this idea that the dunefranchise is going to quote,
unquote, wrap up when they'vesort of spun a serial or a
series out of it.
That could be something thatmaybe affects its chances here
and sort of waters down thatidea of it being a
once-in-a-lifetime spectacle onthe big screen and the other

(31:49):
thing being that, yes, it wonthat award for visual effects at
BAFTA, which is a really goodpredecessor for the Oscar, but
it was also more liked at BAFTA,I would argue right, than it
was at the Academy Awards.

Jules (32:00):
I agree, I think that's a good point.
I go back and forth thinkingthat maybe there are some voters
that are, um, because, uh, dunepart two was the favorite films
of of of many people in theindustry.
I have this impression thatthere are a number of voters who
are displeased with it havingsuch a low amount of nominations
and that this would be one ofthe way, this is one of the few

(32:23):
ways that they can sort ofcorrect that by giving it the
award.
But I agree with you, I thinkit did much better at BAFTA and
I think that's nothing toneglect, to overlook.
But yes, my prediction is alsoDune Part 2 and Spoiler Wicked.

Joseph (32:35):
Yeah, that's what I'm seeing also.

Jules (32:37):
Okay, moving on to the next category, best Sound Design
.
The nominees are A CompleteUnknown.
Best Sound Design the nomineesare A Complete Unknown Dune Part
2, wicked the Wild Robot andAmelia Parris.
I will just we'll just statethat this is one of the most the
toughest categories to predictand I think it's one of the
categories that I think mostpeople stand to get wrong, or a

(32:59):
significant number of peoplestand to get wrong.
It's really a three-headed raceand we'll get into that in a
minute, but this is a reallytough category to predict, to
try to get right, yeah.

Joseph (33:09):
I mean, this is going to be one of the make or break
categories in terms of-.

Jules (33:15):
If you're going to win your Oscar pool or not.

Joseph (33:17):
Yeah, Whether you're going to win it or not, and I
think we have some goodguidelines.
But it's going to be a sort ofa pick-em race here between
those three movies.
So let's start with a littlebit of context.
The best comparisons, let'sstart talking about the BAFTA,
the BAFTA right, and so theBAFTA nominees that are also

(33:38):
Academy Award nominees are Dune,part 2, and Wicked, and at the
BAFTA, duneune part two won thisaward, which is no
insignificant thing.
The other good comparison tolook at is the cinema audio
society right, which is theguild award for sound mixers,
and over at the cinema audiosociety, dune and wicked are
both nominees for the oscar andnominees at the cinema audio

(34:01):
society for their award.
But the actual win went to AComplete Unknown, which is
interesting because, as I justmentioned, a Complete Unknown
was not nominated at the BAFTA,so it certainly didn't win, it
wasn't even nominated.
We can talk a little bit aboutthe other sound organization
which is for the sound editors,which is the MPSE, the Motion

(34:22):
Picture Sound Editors.
They have various categories tolook at, but the most pivotal
one, I would argue, is theircategory for effects and Foley,
which went to Dune.
Dune won that category.
Another good category to talkabout is music, and you know
that's a category that went toWicked.
That's a win for Wicked and acomplete unknown.

(34:43):
Dune and Amelia Perez wereactually all nominated in that
category.
There's a win for Wicked and acomplete unknown.
Dune and Emilia Perez wereactually all nominated in that
category.
There are other categories for,I believe, musical films
possibly, I think, and there'san international category where
Emilia Perez prevailed.
There's a dialogue categorywhere a complete unknown Wicked
and Dune were all nominated butthey all lost to Saturday Night.
But the most fundamental one ofthose, I would argue, is FX.

(35:04):
And there's another win forDune, and so Dune is looking
pretty good with that BAFTA winand with the win at the Motion
Picture Sound Editors and thenomination at the Cinema Audio
Society.
A complete unknowns win at theCinema Audio Society makes it a
real threat and it's certainly agenre we know that they've
liked to nominate and give winsto before.

(35:27):
Most recently, I think,something like Bohemian Rhapsody
was able to win both soundcategories, but its absence at
BAFTA, I think, is a major,major factor here.
I think the last film to win anOscar for sound without a BAFTA
nomination is actually ZeroDark Thirty in the year 2012.

(35:48):
And that was a tie.
Remember One of those weirdties?
Yeah, it was a tie for soundediting with Skyfall, which was
a BAFTA nominee, and over on thesound mixing side, les
Miserables won, and it was aBAFTA winner, I believe.
And so, other than that, youhave to go all the way back to
2006 to find another film thatis able to sort of win the Oscar

(36:12):
without being nominated for aBAFTA, and that was Dreamgirls,
another musical, and it was awinner at the Cinema Audio
Society.
And what's more important, Iwould argue, is that in that
particular year of 2006, whenDreamgirls won the Oscar without
getting a BAFTA nomination, theBAFTA nominees were just
terrible for how they overlapwith the Academy.

(36:35):
You had movies like CasinoRoyale and United 93, excellent
films, but they did not getAcademy Award nominations.
Only one movie sort ofoverlapped between the Oscars
and the BAFTA sound nominees,and so it was a really off year
in terms of sound between BAFTAand Oscar, and it ended up going

(36:55):
to the winner at the CinemaAudio Society Dreamgirls, also a
musical.
We all know that that'ssomething that they like to
reward here, but other than that, you really have to go to Zero
Dark Thirty in a tie thatmanages to sort of something
that they like to reward here,yeah, um, but other than that,
you really have to go to zerodark 30 in a tie that manages to
sort of survive this racewithout BAFTA support.
A complete unknown was thenominee for best picture at
BAFTA and it was, I believe, atop 10 film for the sound

(37:17):
category and it could not placeright now it's interesting
because the movies that itdidn't place over were Blitz and
Gladiator 2 and the Substance,so possibly movies that it
should have gotten in overeasily.
Or maybe you could argue thatthere's a little bit of a
British bend to all those filmsand that you know, when you come
to the Academy there's going tobe much more robust support for

(37:39):
that type of film, Even though,again, A Complete Unknown was a
BAFTA Best Picture nominee.
So I think it's possibly atroubling sign that we didn't
see a complete unknown nominatedthere.
In fact, we didn't see it winany BAFTAs, which may also be a
troubling sign it might be atrend.

Jules (37:54):
It may possibly be a trend.
It also didn't win any GoldenGlobes or Greatest Choice Awards
.

Joseph (37:59):
Yeah, exactly, and so that may be something to look at
.
But you know, lately the soundcategory has been believe won

(38:24):
that bafta last year and wasable to win the oscar despite
not being nominated for thecinema audio society.
And if you look at a movie likeum 1917, that's a movie that
won bafta and won the oscarwithout being nominated for the
cinema audio society.
And the same can be said forwhiplash.
So as long as you're a filmthat has that sort of bafta

(38:46):
support, even with that cinemaaudio society snub, you're in
really good shape.
And dune has the cinema audiosociety nomination and it has
the bafta win to boot.
Now remember that over atoscars recently we've had what's
been sort of the unification ofthe sound categories, right.
What was once the sound mixingcategory and the sound editing
category has become just onesound uh category with five

(39:08):
nominees, and ever since that'shappened, I think bafta has also
had a pretty good track record.
They only ever missed once,right, which is when bafta went
for all quiet on the westernfront and they went crazy for
the movie that year, right, um.
But at the oscars the win endedup going to someone like Top
Gun Maverick, with that CinemaAudio Society support, and so I

(39:31):
think it's really close I thinkmost people would argue it's
really close between Dune, part2 and A Complete Unknown.
But I would like to spotlightsomething that is really
complicating this whole category, right, which is wicked.
Right, we know that movies likebohemian rhapsody and ray do

(39:53):
well here, but musicals doreally well here too.
You know, this is a categorythat lamisa robb picked up for
the sound mix, dream girlspicked up for the sound mix.
Chicago won this.
Um, in fact, I think the last,most musicals that are up for
this, I think, do really well.
I think one musical that was upfor this and didn't do well was

(40:14):
La La Land, where it wonactually the Cinema Audio
Society and it lost the categoryto the BAFTA winner, which was
Arrival, and it lost the othercategory to Hacksaw Ridge.
But I think Wicked, you know,when people have to vote on
sound, they may be tempted tovote on you know what's the most
sound or the loudest sound.

Jules (40:35):
What's the most music?
The most music equals the mostsound, so that's easy.

Joseph (40:38):
There may be an exciting factor here and I have to say
that I think Wicked is in reallygood standing.
I mean it has Andy Nelson onits team, yeah, but beyond that,
as I said, musicals do well inthis category.
It is a nominee in both, unlikea complete unknown which missed
that BAFTA nomination.
Now it was clear that theBritish preferred Dune to Wicked

(41:01):
, right but over at BAFTA itseems like Wicked and Dune, part
two, were sort of even forBAFTA right with their seven
nominations a piece more or lessright.
Um, and we know at the Academy,wicked is the preferred movie,
doubling up on nominations toDoom, part II, right.
It has 10 to Doom Part II's five.
And here's to me, the realkicker as to why the film to

(41:24):
watch here is the one thathasn't picked up an award yet,
which is Wicked, is that, if youlook at this category, a really
good sort of comp for thiscategory is, you know, look at
the visual effects categoryright, another post-production
category and when you look atthe visual effects category, you
have two nominees in visualeffects that are also in sound,

(41:46):
and that's Wicked and Dune Part2.
And we talk about how the soundnominees are a factor in visual
effects nominees in terms ofdeciding the five, but when it
comes to deciding the winner,visual effects movies do really
well here.
They tend to do really wellhere, and I think the last time
that a visual effects nomineedidn't pick up this award for
sound was 2018, when BohemianRhapsody, again in the complete

(42:10):
unknown sort of genre, was ableto beat First man right.
And then, other than that, Ithink you have an off year in
2020, the pandemic year, whenSound of Metal wins, which was
not a visual effects nomineeobviously, but there were no
visual effects nominees in thatcategory, correct yeah?
exactly that was a year withoutany visual effects nominees in
the sound category.

(42:30):
Exactly that was a year withoutany visual effects nominees in
the sound category.
So other than that, you have tosort of figure that when voters
are thinking about who's thebest sound, sometimes they think
in the back of their mind well,who's a visual effects movie?
Right, right, which movie has alot of visual effects?
Because they may have a lot ofsound effects.
Right, exactly, and that'ssomething going for Dune, but
that's something going forWicked too.
Right.

Jules (42:56):
And you know, beyond that , the other sort of really good
crossover to look at, you know,between categories is the best
film editing category.

Joseph (42:57):
I was going to say that, yeah, yeah, exactly.
Because if you look at thesound categories, historically
through unification, which isafter 2020, right, 2020 to 2024.
And anything before then, right, when there was two categories
the mix and the edit, andanything before then, right,
when there was two categoriesthe mix and the edit an editing
nominee has walked away with atleast one of those wins, right.

(43:19):
And so we talked about sound ofmetal.
Well, that was, that was anediting film.
Yeah, right, we talked aboutone editing, exactly.
We talk about something like,um, bohemian rhapsody that's an
editing film, right, um, it wasone editing as well.
Um, even, something like dunepart.
One's an editing film right, itwon editing as well.
Even something like Dune partone was an editing film right,
and I've mentioned LesMiserables, but that's not an

(43:39):
editing film right.
But over on the edit side theygave one of the trophies to Zero
Dark Thirty.
Even without that, baftasupport right as we said and
that's an editing film, right.
Zero Dark Thirty.
And you look at something likeDreamgirls, another musical that
won right.
That year the editing, thesound edit category, went to
Letter from Ujima.

(44:00):
Actually, that might be one ofthe few years, I think, where I
don't think Letter from Ujimamade it to editing.
That's one of the few yearswhere editing didn't place there
.
But most of the time, whetherit's Mad Max, you're going to
see an editing film win, butmost of the time, whether it's
Mad Max, you're going to see anediting film win.
And to my mind, when Encore onthe Western Front wins that
BAFTA award and sort of losesthe Oscar, I think maybe what

(44:21):
sort of threw the support to TopGun Maverick.
Was that?
It was that editing nomination.
And so Wicked is in a veryenvious place, I would argue,
because it's the rare musical,the rare Broadway adaptation Les

(44:41):
Muses, robbes, dreamgirls thatmanaged to get a nomination for
both visual effects and filmediting.

Jules (44:48):
If you look at it, it sort of has the trifecta it has
a sound nomination, whichmusicals do well in exactly, but
then it has a visual effectsnomination, which musicals
typically don't do well exactly,and it also has an editing
nomination, which musicals don'ttend to do well, though, either
.

Joseph (45:01):
that's exactly my point exactly.
It's sort of like in a weirdplace, in the sense that, again,
not very many, not very manymusicals get to be in this area.
If you look, look at somethinglike La La Land it had the
editing nomination, the soundnominations, but no visual
effects.
Something like Chicago had theediting nomination, the sound
nominations, but no visualeffects.
But so to be in this reallyunique position where it has

(45:23):
that support, I really do wonder.
You know, I you always thinkcan a really big sort of
Broadway musical that was one ofthe runaway financial hits of
the year, can it not win here?
And you sort of think well, itsbiggest challenge is going to
be a visual effects film.
Well, it just so happens thatit is a visual effects film, its
biggest challenge is going tobe an editing film.
Well, just so happens that itis an editing film.

(45:45):
And so I would argue thatWicked hasn't shown its strength
yet, but it might, you know,finally show up at the Oscars.
And the one thing going againstWicked to this moment is that,
of the films that I've sort ofquoted Chicago, les Miserables,
dreamgirls most of them had somesort of trajectory to that win,
because they either won theBAFTA or the Cinema Audio

(46:07):
Society, and Wicked hasn'tpicked up either right, it lost
that BAFTA, it lost the CinemaAudio Society, but when you look
at its competition you kind ofwonder if it can't edge it out
right With the idea that acomplete unknown went empty
handed at BAFTA and doesn't evenhave a BAFTA nomination, and
again, not till Zero Dark Thirty.
You're going to find thathappen again.
When you look at the idea thatDune was able to get that win

(46:30):
but it was preferred at BAFTAthan it was at the Oscars, and
some voters are going to thinkin this category, do I really
want to give it to Dune again?

Jules (46:39):
Yeah, that was going to be my point, I just gave it to
it.
Yeah, that was going to be mypoint, that, along the lines of
what you're saying, howrealistic can we say that a film
that underperformed and gotfive nominations, as opposed to
the seven or eight that peoplewere predicting for Dune Part 2,
how likely is it that that filmwith five nominations is going
to walk out with two awards?

(46:59):
Given that the first iterationof Dune Dune Part 1, won those
same two awards, it just feelsvery unlikely to me for it to
win both visual effects andsound with five nominations.
I really like the correlationwith the bafta win.
I think that's great, um, but Iwill say that I think wicked
has, as you were saying, so manythings in its favor right,

(47:23):
exactly, so I think that wickedisn't necessarily the popular
choice right now.

Joseph (47:28):
Most people are sort of you know, either going into dune
part two's camp or a completeunknown camp.

Jules (47:35):
I also want to say that it's interesting that I believe
James Mangold's sort of sisterfilm Walk the Line was the
winner of the Cinema AudioSociety as well, and.
Bafta and the BAFTA.

Joseph (47:47):
And it lost.
And it lost, and it lost theOscar right lost and lost the
oscar right, um.
Sometimes you and I talk abouthow that might have been, you
know, um, a consequence of raythe film having won the sound
mix category the year before.
Um, but it's really interestingto think about that.
But you know, james mangled issomeone who does really well in
these sound categories and yougot to wonder is he just well

(48:10):
respected enough in the industryas a sound man to sort of, you
know, beat the odds without thatbad denomination?
Um?

Jules (48:18):
well, he did win, his film did win for exactly ferrari
in 2019 or it might be sort of.
Uh, I just gave it to uh to, uhto a film.

Joseph (48:27):
Do I really want to do it again?
So is it going to be that he'sgoing to fulfill sort of the
path of walk the line andfinally win that, or is it going
to be sort of like a?
You know, james mangled gets,gets awarded here pretty well,
so I'd rather not nominate it?
I mean, I will say that, unlikewicked right, which grew from
its baptist nominations of sevento an eventual 10 oscar

(48:48):
nominations, a complete unknownsort of stayed the same right.

Jules (48:51):
No I believe it was.
Yeah, it sort of stayed prettystable.

Joseph (48:54):
A a it got a right um, but, interestingly enough, um,
it did pick up that soundnomination at the academy awards
, but it stayed more or lesskind of.
Even so, the enthusiasm didn'tgrow too much for it but you
know the wicked nominations didgrow in enthusiasm.

Jules (49:09):
The dune ones, as we know , shrunk in enthusiasm, and that
might be a factor I will saythat for a film like a complete
unknown, which was clearly likedby the academy, with eight
nominations we just saw it, uhsqueak a really big win for
timothy chalamet at the sag.
So this is a film that's reallywell liked in the industry as a
whole, with eight nominations atthe Academy Awards.

(49:31):
For a film like that to walkout empty-handed leaves one sort
of you know it's a bit puzzling.
You wouldn't think that thatkind of film would walk out with
zero wins, and barring asurprise win for Timothee
Chalamet in the Best Actorcategory and we're going to get
to that when we get to BestActor this is one of the few

(49:52):
places where voters can actuallygive something to a complete
unknown, because there's toomuch competition in all the
other races.
So there is a big part of methat wonders if that element is
going to help a complete unknownsnatch a win here over
something like Wicked.
It has won more awards in thesound sphere than Wicked has.

(50:17):
That desire to not have acomplete unknown walk out
empty-handed is going to play abig factor here, and that's
something that's sort of makingthis decision even more
difficult between these threefilms.

Joseph (50:29):
Right, and I will say that you know, speaking about
spreading the wealth, I think ifWicked maybe doesn't win here,
I think we could talk about howthe idea of two musicals maybe
vote splitting each other mightend up being a factor here, even
if one is not a visual effectsnominee and not an well, it is
an editing nominee and one isextremely popular with 13
nominations.
You know, la La Land was a moviethat lost the BAFTA and won the

(50:53):
Cinema Auto Society, and youwould think that you could see
that musical winning an awardhere, right, and it lost both of
them, right, because it was anopportunity to sort of spread
the wealth and give a rival anaward for the night and give
possibly what might have beenthe only award for Hacksaw Ridge
, right.
And so certainly I think votersare thinking about that and

(51:14):
that might be a threat for acomplete unknown.
I would spotlight for a second,an organization that's sort of
been recent, sort of been up andcoming, which is the AMPS
organization, the Association ofMotion Picture Sound, and
they've been pretty good abouthaving winners as well.
They've only been around since2019, but their winner tends to

(51:35):
go on to win the Oscar and,interestingly enough, they did
overlap with the BAFTA this time, um, with the decision to give
it to Dune 2 and the threeheaded horse of Wicked Dune Part
2, and A Complete Unknown werenominated.
They decided to go with DunePart 2.
And this is what happened lastyear with the zone of interest
were nominated, they decided togo with dune part two, and this
is what happened last year withthe zone of interest and I think

(51:56):
the biggest you know hurdlebeyond the lack of a bafta
support for a complete unknown.
Again, I want to quote zerodark 30 as the last time it's
happened.
But it's not only a bafta lessnominee, it is also a bafta less
no edit nominee, sound option,right, and so maybe those
chances are shrinking.

(52:16):
Maybe a complete unknown couldsurvive that BAFTA snub.
Can it really survive the BAFTAsnub and the editing snub?
That's the question we have toask ourselves.
Certainly, something like Raywas able to get it without that
editing nomination, even thoughI think they went for a visual
effects, uh, film, I'm sorry, anediting film in the other sound

(52:39):
category, the edit category,and ray was nominated for a
bafta.
So I think suffice it to saythat this is an absolute pick'em
race.
Um, there's, you have as good anargument for any.
I think dune has important winsa complete unknown has a genre
they're gonna to favor and iscertainly a more popular film
than Dune and hasn't beenawarded as recently, as Dune

(53:00):
Part 1 did.
And then you have Wicked, whichis a musical which does well
here, but it's a musical thathappens to also be all these
other things at the same time.
So I really, you know, I reallyam excited to see who ends up
with this victory.
I don't know how you're goingto call it, but I mean, I think
this is absolutely a pick-emseries, right here.

Jules (53:19):
I think something that I wanted to bring up was that I
really feel like there's a bigdifference between a film like
the Zone of Interest and DoomPart II, in that, even if the
Zone of Interest was missingthese important nominations in
certain sound categories forother awards, the sound use was
so uh integral to the part, toan integral part to that film

(53:39):
and to the experience of thatfilm, that I think that really
um helped it get that win, asopposed to doom part two, which
again, I think has uh goingagainst it um the fact that it's
a sequel yeah and that a lot ofyou know there might be this
mentality been there, done that,seen it already.
Let's get something else new.
Well, the zone of interest isvery much qualified in the.

(54:00):
You know I haven't seen thisyet.
This is very impressive.
This is very potent.
The way the film uses sound inthat film that I think this
competition between Doom Part 2and something like Wicked or
Complete Unknown doesn't havethat going for it.
It doesn't have that sort ofnewness factor.
It's very much in the terrainof a sequel, which I think

(54:22):
really hurts as well and, as wewere saying, I do feel like this
category will make a differencein your whoever is listening to
us will make a difference inyour Oscar pool.
If you get this right, youmight just have the edge.
So this is a very this is acategory you want to give some
thought to, um, because thismight just be the difference
maker.

Joseph (54:41):
But again, you can put as much thought as you want into
it.
I don't think that there'sgoing to be a super decisive
reason.

Jules (54:47):
Right, yeah, and so it's a three headed race either Doom
part two or wicked, or acomplete unknown.
Either of those three can wineasily this category.
Right now, I'm going to saythat my prediction is for wicked
to win the sound category andthe spoiler.
I'm actually going to give itto a complete unknown and not
doom part two as my spoiler.

Joseph (55:07):
If this was a traditional year of two
categories, right, I would arguethat the sound editing win
would go to dune part two andthat the sound mix win would be
a tough race between a completeunknown and wicked.
You know, I think that there'sjust something about the
popularity of wicked when youlook at those other nominations

(55:29):
that, as a musical, was able togarner.
I haven't even started talkingabout it's.
It's um sort of lampooning ofthe original score category
where it got nominated there tooright, and I don't think that a
sort of an adapted musical hasbeen nominated there since 19
the 1980s.
And so you add that with the 10nominations, I just feel like

(55:51):
there's just going to be anoverwhelming support here in
this particular category forWicked.
So, despite not being the raremusical, does it have enough to
be the rare musical to pull outa win here without a BAFTA win
or a Cinema Audio Society win?
I think it will.
I think I prefer that than tohave a non-editing film win
again, especially one that youknow just won recently in dune

(56:14):
part two, and one that has noediting nomination and no bafta
nomination, like a completeunknown.
So I'm going to go wicked, andI agree with you, the spoiler
here would possibly be acomplete unknown right and don't
neglect that.

Jules (56:27):
unfortunately, the way a lot of these categories, when it
comes to the oscars sort of endup is.
You know, voters will look atthe most obvious, and so don't
overlook that there will be asignificant number of voters who
will think again.
Most music equals most sound,exactly, exactly so.
So don't overlook that either.
So we are in agreement then.

Joseph (56:46):
Yeah, I think we're in agreement and I will say as we
said what's your spoiler?

Jules (56:49):
again.

Joseph (56:50):
My spoiler is a complete annonce, so we're in 100%
agreement.
But this category is a hair isliterally a hair of difference
between those three.

Jules (56:57):
The three headed race there right, yeah, okay, moving
on to the next category.
Uh, best original score.
The nominees are emilia, paris,conclave, the wild robot wicked
and the yeah.

Joseph (57:10):
I mean, I think this is a category that the best thing
to look at is BAFTA.
I think BAFTA has been reallyreally good at predicting this
category.
And well, the BAFTA winner wasthe Brutalist, and the only
nominee not to make it intoBAFTA was Wicked right.
So the BAFTA nominees were theBrutalist Conclave, emilio Perez

(57:33):
and the Wild Robot.
The winner was the Brutalist.

Jules (57:35):
So technically, it would seem as though we should pick
between those four.

Joseph (57:39):
You would think right, you would think Now I will say
this is that you know they'vebeen on a really good streak.
I think you have to go back to,I think, something like 2018
was the last time that anoriginal score winner at BAFTA
was not an Oscar winner.
In fact, that year, theoriginal score winner at Oscars,

(58:02):
black Panther, was snubbed atBAFTA, and it was, you know.
Just, black Panther was not aBAFTA thing, it was snubbed all
over the place and the Academy,you know, clearly loved it.
It grew from, you know, I think, two BAFTA nominations to eight
at the Academy, so the Academywas clearly a fan, and so you
can be snubbed from BAFTA andstill win this category.

(58:22):
So if you're wicked, you don't,you know, give up on this
category, but usually that's notthe case.
Other than that, I think theother time that BAFTA has sort
of broken its streak was in 2012, when they went for Skyfall
over Life of Pi.
Life of Pi won the Oscar.
Both of them were BAFTAnominees and Oscar nominees.
You know, what I could say tothat is that whenever you deal

(58:44):
with BAFTA and you have a 007nominee, there's like the 007
mirage.
There's a favoritism.
You know, the 007 franchise tothem is what the Black Panther
film was to the Americanorganization, the Academy.
Right, they just have theirfavorites.
It's very revered.
James Bond is just incrediblyrevered there.
So you know you probably couldhave understood that.

(59:04):
You know Life of Pi could takethat award from Skyfall, unless
you were thinking about theThomas Newman factor and that he
hadn't won yet.
And then before that, I thinkthe last time, is something like
the King's Speech in 2010,.
Which wins the BAFTA, nominatedfor the Oscar, but it loses to
the Social Network, which wasnot a BAFTA nominee, and again,

(59:28):
I just think it was a little bitedgy for BAFTA at the moment.
That said, you know the SocialNetwork, life of Pi both of them
were Golden Globe winners andBlack Panther was a Golden Globe
nominee this year.
The Golden Globe winner, theOscar, shutout exactly, which
was Challengers, unfortunatelyand so the Golden Globe winner,

(59:50):
we know, is not going to play afactor here, and so the Golden
Globe winner, we know, is notgoing to play a factor here.
And so, looking at that, Iwould argue that the favorite
here has to be the Brutalistno-transcript with the actual

(01:00:36):
songs itself.

Jules (01:00:37):
Right, and even something like Conclave.
You know that has a very.
That's also a score that'smemorable.
But Edward Berger film alreadyjust won that for in 2022 for
Aquaman.
Western Front and I will saythat the film here that I think
stood the best chance ofovertaking a movie like the
Brutalist was Emilia Perez,considering that it has this

(01:01:01):
connection with the originalsong category.
It's also nominated for othervery important texts like
editing and sound design.
And so if there was one filmthat was ready to trump this
possible win for the Brutalist,it was Amelia Perez Right, and
the stock going down for AmeliaPerez has opened up the space

(01:01:22):
for a movie like the BrutalistRight.

Joseph (01:01:24):
You know, I think we should.
It bears talking about the ideaof an overlap between score and
song.
Yeah.
Two sort of oral categories, andso if the Brutalist can't
capitalize on its BAFTA win andit loses, I would argue the
threat is from the soundnominees.
And the sound nominees thatwere also score nominees this

(01:01:44):
year were Emilia Perez, wickedand the Wild Robot.
So that's three, and that justgoes to show you how strong a
connection there is betweenthose two categories.
But the reason I say that isbecause, yes, bafta has been on
a streak and, yes, the Bluelesswon that award, but at the
Academy Awards they have leanedinto a sound nominee winning the

(01:02:06):
original score category foralmost a decade now.
You have to go all the way backto 2015.
That was the last time a filmwas able to win original score
without a sound nomination,which of course the Brutalist
this year does not have.
Right.
It didn't even make, I believe,the long list, and so, and that
film was Ennio Morricone of allindividuals and he won for the

(01:02:29):
8th late, but you know there wasa period in time Academy Award,
I think it individuals and hewon for the hateful eight, but
you know there was a period intime academy award I think it
was his first academy award.
Yes, exactly.
So all those factors are goingfor it, and that year they
certainly had sound nominees topick from right.
A movie like carol I'm sorry,excuse me a movie like sicario
was nominated for score andsound and it lost um, but they

(01:02:49):
also had a little bit of astretch in time there where you
know sort of sound nominee wasnot the go-to score winner, um,
you look at something like 2014where the grand budapest hotel
won and it beat something likeinterstellar, and in 2011, the
artist, of course, was not a asound nominee, obviously, and it
beat something like warhorseand hugo, and even something

(01:03:11):
like atonement was able to beat310 to Human Ratatouille in 2007
.
Now what's kind of interestingis that of those films that I'm
mentioning that are able to winthe Oscar for original score
without a sound nomination, mostof them all, except Atonement,
were actually BAFTA winners.
Right, the Grand Budapest Hotelwon that BAFTA.

(01:03:31):
Hateful Eight Artists they allwon that BAFTA, hateful Eight
artists they all won the BAFTA.
And so that puts the Budalists,I think, in really strong
conversation with sort offollowing in the footsteps of
those films and being able towin the award.
But if there is an upset.
I would argue it's one of thosesound films.
And then just to quickly pointout, you know there is some
overlap between song and score.

(01:03:51):
Last film to win them both wasLa La Land, which is maybe
Emilia Perez could do that.
As you had said, it soundedlike Emilia Perez was a strong
choice here once upon a time,and certainly possibly still the
favorite for song, and the lastfilm to win score without
winning song is Black Panther,and so it doesn't hurt to have a
song nominated, much less apair of songs nominated, like

(01:04:12):
Emilia Perez.
And so maybe doesn't hurt tohave a song nominated, much less
a pair of songs nominated, likeAmelia Perez.
Right.
And so maybe that would be thespoiler waiting here.
I mean, I'll also say you know,first nomination for Chris
Bowers is a big deal.

Jules (01:04:22):
Yeah, I wonder about Chris Bowers being a sneak
attack here.

Joseph (01:04:24):
Right.
Dreamworks having a lot ofnominations for the Wild Robot,
also a big deal and wicked.
Getting into that nominationfor original score when it
hasn't happened since you knowmid eighties is a huge deal.
Steven Schwartz you knowmultiple Academy award
nominations and I believe he'sone for original score for
Pocahontas and he's one forwriting songs for Pocahontas and

(01:04:46):
the Prince of Egypt.
So not outlandish to think thatif there is a spoiler and it's
from the sound category, itcould possibly be wicked.
Like I said, we may be dealingwith a film that at the end of
oscar night was as beloved asyou know.
Dune part one was remember whendune got those 10 nominations
and pulled out six trophies.
You could see something likethat happening for wicked,

(01:05:07):
especially below the line yeah,and I think that's a good point.

Jules (01:05:10):
I mean, we, we'll see what happens.
I'm not a hundred percent soldon it just yet, but like Dune
part one, you know you have inmost Oscar ceremonies, as as of
late, there's a one sort ofspectacle driven film that ends
up over-performing and grabbingmost of the text and doing
really well below the line, andthat could be wicked.
It could be.
I mean, right now it'll have itpegged as just that quite yet,

(01:05:33):
but it could certainly befollowing Doom Part 1's
footsteps.
I 100% agree with you.
I think, as I was sayingearlier, you know, emilia Perez,
sort of abandoning the shiphere really helped out the
Brutalist quite a bit, and soI'm going to go with my
prediction to be the Brutalistand, like you said, my spoiler

(01:05:55):
is going to be one of the soundcategories, a film that's
nominated for both uh uh scoreand sound, and I think I'm going
to go with the wild robot as myspoiler.

Joseph (01:06:04):
It's very interesting.
I think it's a as valid achoice as as the next I.
I think that the brutalist, asyou said, falls in the
trajectory there and is able togo from BAFTA winner to Oscar
winner.
And I'm actually going to say,if there's a spoiler, you know,
maybe there's just enoughrespect for what Emilia Perez
was trying to do musically tosort of survive.
That, and so I'll say EmiliaPerez, is my spoiler All right

(01:06:26):
Perfect.
Well, let's talk about originalsong then.
The nominees were Emilia Perezfor El for el mal.
Emilia perez for me camino,sing, sing for like a bird.
The six, triple eight for thejourney.
Elton john never too late forthe song.
Never too late.
What do you think?

Jules (01:06:46):
all right, this category is a little bit weird.
I think the one sort of uhaspect that's making it making
it confusing is that there arepeople who are completely
abandoning ship for Emilia Perez, and so there are people right
now who are thinking.
Clayton Davis, I know, wrote anarticle in Variety.
He's predicting a completeshutout of Emilia Perez.

(01:07:09):
I'm not quite there.

Joseph (01:07:11):
Remember when Clayton Davis was saying that Emilia
Perez is going to be the mostnominated film ever and the most
winning film ever?

Jules (01:07:16):
Well, it was the most nominated film ever in foreign
language, so that came true.

Joseph (01:07:22):
How quickly, how quickly the tune changes.

Jules (01:07:24):
Right, and so you know, I'm not sure that Exodus is
completely warranted.
You know, certainly the filmhas lost so much steam.
The controversy hasn't helped,pre and post tweets surfacing.
However, I don't expect EmiliaPerez to walk out with zero wins
, and I think it's two bestcategories for her to win are

(01:07:50):
supporting actress and originalsong and, weirdly enough,
they're tied in together in away, because, uh, zoe's aldania
has managed to be unscathed bythis uh sort of controversy.
She's won the baft of the sag,the critics choice um the golden
globe, and so a big part of hercampaign has been around that
big number of hers right and malum.

(01:08:12):
A big part of her sort of uhperformance is sort of being
centered around that musicalnumber.
I personally don't think it'sone of the best musical numbers
in the film, right personally.
Or nor do I think it's zoe's aldaniel's finest moment in the
film either remember she went onstage for the golden globe.
When I gave it to the song, shewent on stage right and so I
disagree with, I guess, themajority of people who might

(01:08:34):
think that.
However, I do feel that it'sbeen such a anchor to her
campaign and to the film's umcampaign as a whole yeah and so
I do think that's still verymuch the favorite el mal.
I don't think the same hashappened for me camino um or the
musical number as it relates toSelena Gomez's part, even

(01:08:55):
though I kind of prefer thatsong more than El Mal.
But I don't see that being sucha competitor for El Mal.
If anything, there might be achance that there's some vote
splitting because there's twosongs to choose from.
But, like I said, el Mal andZoe Saldana has been so at the
front of this awards campaign,of the Amelia Perez awards
campaign, that I doubt thathappens.

(01:09:16):
And then you have the threeother contenders, which are
interesting to talk about in thesense that I think, technically
, either of those three couldpull off a surprise even though
I think it's unlikely Like aBird was a surprise nominee in
my opinion, but it has a socialmessage to it, right Alongside
the film that could carry it toa win.

(01:09:37):
If voters decide at the end ofthe day that they do want to
sort of blank Amelia Paris fromeverything, which again I think
is unlikely.
And then you have Diane Warren,which is a big dark horse
because she's never won andbecause she knows it.
She knows it and I think shewants never won and because she
knows it, she knows it and Ithink she wants that award.
However, I'm thinking thatDiane Warren's moment to win is

(01:10:00):
when she's a part of a moviethat has a bigger sort of impact
in the awards race in the Oscarrace.

Joseph (01:10:06):
That's all she's really missing, Right exactly.
Just get on board with a moviethat's going to get nominated
for more than just song.

Jules (01:10:11):
Exactly so.
The 6888 was received verymixed by critics.
It doesn't have very goodreviews, so it's hard for me to
see this song from this filmbeing the thing that gets her
over the hump.
I will say I quite like thesong quite a bit.
It's one of my favorite amongstthis list, so it has that going
for it.
It's actually a very good songperformed beautifully by her.

(01:10:33):
Yeah.
And this list so it has thatgoing for it.
It's actually a very good songperformed beautifully by her.
Yeah, um and so uh.
It also has a social message toit um, that might help it along,
might help it as well, um, butI don't know, I just don't like
that.
It's, you know, not a verywell-received film.
I'm just not sure that this isher ticket, um.
And then elton John is one ofthe most iconic recognizable

(01:10:53):
names on this list and I thinkthere's always a feeling, a
possibility, that voters justcheck off the most known name
here.
I don't like, however, that hejust won in 2019.
I prefer this song over the onethat he won for for Rocketman,
but the point is he already hasan Oscar for original song
Multiples because remember hegot Lion King Exactly.

(01:11:16):
And so I'm not really sure rightnow that uh this, uh this song,
a part of his documentary um,is going to also kind of pull
through.
I think it's hasn't been enoughtime since his last win for
Rocketman Um, and so, by virtueof the competition, I think that
uh el mal still comes out ontop.

(01:11:37):
Um, my spoiler is actuallygoing to be a very surprise win
to finally give it to uh no, noand break tradition, no way for
the journey mean.
Possibly, if there's that manypeople dissatisfied with Amelia
Perez's trajectory and itsnosedive, then they'll just say

(01:11:58):
well, you know what?
It's as good a time as any togive Diane Warren finally her
first Oscar, possibly.
So that's going to be myspoiler Diane Warren, the
Journey, but my pick isdefinitely Edmonds for.

Joseph (01:12:10):
Amelia Perez.
I agree with a lot of whatyou're saying.
I think Diane Warren's song isquite good and she's extremely
talented and she's going to winat some point, and I think she's
a worthy sort of spoiler here,I think, for me.
You know, when someone likeClayton Davis, who talks up
Amelia Perez that now is doingeverything he can to talk it
down, it just to me enhances theproblem here in the sense of

(01:12:34):
why there will not be an AmeliaPerez shutout.
If there is an Amelia Perezshutout, that's going to only
enhance the controversy right.
The Academy at this point wantsto distance itself as much as
possible, and so you have tofind the balance between not
giving it too much to avoidbeing on people's crosshairs,
but not giving it too little sothat the headlines read all over

(01:12:58):
the place that Emilio Perezcomplete shutout.
Academy completely sort ofreverses course and dumps it.
So sort of like almost shuttingit out is going to give more of
a spotlight to the Academy thanwhat they want of a spotlight
to the academy than what theywant.
So they're going to have togive it a couple of respectable
wins to sort of say that youknow it lost due to the
competition, not due to thecontroversy, and so because of

(01:13:19):
that I agree with you.
I think El Mal has this, thisaward still pretty secure, and I
think you're right for everyreason you said, and certainly
because it's really tied intothe Zaldana performance.
So the favorite here, I think,should be Amal.
It should win.
If there is a spoiler as muchas the Diane Warren one sounds
like it's a possibility, Like itis every year.

(01:13:40):
I actually think that ifsomeone like Bradley Cooper has
been quoted, as you know, lovingSing Sing as much as he does,
this might be a category whereenough people like the song,
like the movie and feel likeit's a moment to celebrate that
film that they loved so much andit has a social message.
So I think that my spoilerwould actually be like a bird

(01:14:03):
from Sing Sing.

Jules (01:14:03):
That's a good point.
I will also mention one lastthing that is on par with what
we've been saying so far is that, despite the nosedive that has
been Amelia Perez's awardscampaign, there are people in
this academy that like thatmovie, that responded to that
movie, that find it compelling.
You know obviously got 13nominations.
That doesn't just go out thewindow because of resurfaced

(01:14:26):
tweets and I will say you couldsay that there was a big.
There were already legitimatecriticism towards the film prior
to that, but that legitimatecriticism didn't derail the film
from getting 13 nominations.

Joseph (01:14:37):
Was a non-factor.

Jules (01:14:37):
Exactly so, it's a non-factor.
The point is, this film isliked by a lot of members in the
Academy, so to think that it'sgoing to walk out with zero, I
think, is pretty unlikely.

Joseph (01:14:46):
That's at least what we're predicting Now.
Should that be the case, I'msure that's something that we'll
unpack, you know, the daysfollowing.
But I agree with you, it's veryhard to believe that we're
going to jump to such extremes.
Right, exactly.
All right.
Well, let's talk about themakeup category, which is a
really fun category.
I really like the nominees here.
Okay, so the nominees therewere A Different man, emilia

(01:15:07):
Perez.

Jules (01:15:26):
Nosferatu, the Substance and Wicked.
What do you think?
I'm sorry, only seven or rather, I apologize, eight years has
the BAFTA winner not gone on tobe the Oscar winner in this
category.
But what's very interesting tonote is that six out of those
eight years the Oscar winnerwasn't even nominated for the

(01:15:46):
BAFTA category.
We certainly don't have thatthis year.
In fact we have an overlap offour nominees Nosferatu, the
Substance, emilia Perez and.
Wicked, so I think thelikelihood of that occurring is
very unlikely.
Yeah very slow.
And I would say the safest thingis to go with the four films

(01:16:07):
that overlap in both.
Yeah.
So that leaves out a film like ADifferent man, which is
unfortunate, it's a great film,uh, one of our favorites, and
it's the only nomination thatwhere it gets a spotlight.
Um, I will say that thiscategory for the BAFTAs and
especially the Oscars, it tendsto really favor performances.
So, actors who have a heavydose of makeup on them, uh, as a

(01:16:32):
as an integral part of theirperformance Think, you know,
marianne Cotillard and La Vie enRose, brendan.

Joseph (01:16:39):
Fraser.

Jules (01:16:39):
Brendan Fraser in the Whale and Jessica Chastain in
the Eyes of Temmie Faye.
So the edge certainly goes to afilm that is nominated for an
Academy Award for acting and isan integral part of that actor's
performance, and that leavesthe most tempting options to be
the Substance which is nominatedfor Best Actress, right Wicked,

(01:17:01):
which has a Best Actress and aBest Supporting Actress
nomination, and Emilia Perez,which has a Best Actress and a
Best Supporting Actressnomination.

Joseph (01:17:07):
Also the three Best Picture movies.

Jules (01:17:08):
Exactly, and there are three Best Picture movies, so
all of that makes me feel likeit should be among those three.
But in reality I think this isa pretty easy category in terms
of prediction.
I think that the Substance isgoing to walk away with this
award.
I actually think and we'regoing to get to this when we get
to Best Actress it's going tobe the only award that the

(01:17:28):
Substance wins.
A very uh winner in thiscategory.
I think you can't put that movieon, as I'm sure many voters
have, um, in preparation for thevoting, and not be compelled to
give it makeup because it'ssuch an integral part to that
movie and so into the last actof that movie, um.
So I think the substance iswinning this hands down.

(01:17:50):
It also know correlates withwhat we've been saying.
It has a performance that'snominated in Demi Moore for Best
Actress, and my spoiler wouldbe, amidst those three other
films, those two other filmsthat are nominated for not just
Best Picture but performances.
So my spoiler would be Wickedfor makeup.

(01:18:11):
But I think the Substance hasthis hands down.

Joseph (01:18:13):
I think that if the Substance loses this, it's a
huge red flag.

Jules (01:18:17):
That's a bad sign.

Joseph (01:18:17):
You know, I think I can't really picture the
Substance winning another award,be it screenplay or actress,
and it having lost this category.
It feels like this is a mustwin for this film and I think
it's in pretty good shape.
I agree with you to win here Ifand I think it's in pretty good
shape I agree with you to winhere.
If there was a film, I think, tosort of angle it upset, I think
it would have to be Wicked,right, and it would be sort of

(01:18:39):
again, it would turn out to bethat kind of night where Wicked
is just they want to rewardWicked so much akin to, you know
, dune's 10 nominations andgiving it six.
Or Mad Max Fury Road's 10nominations and giving it six,
giving it six.
Or Mad Max Fury Roads 10nominations and giving it six.
So a night where they want togive Wicked at least half of the
awards that it's nominated for.

(01:18:59):
But as of right now, I thinkthe substance is in pretty good
shape.
You know, if it doesn't winthis, we know it's because genre
bias and we know that the filmjust did not click when it got
more eyeballs on it after itsbest picture nomination.
Right, you know there's just toomuch blood, too much gore, too
much body horror and it's justsomething that was unappealing

(01:19:20):
to them.
But I agree with you.
I think it's the substance, andmy spoiler is Wicked.

Jules (01:19:24):
Okay, now moving on to the best costume design category
.
The nominees are Gladiator 2,conclave A Complete Unknown,
nosferatu and Wicked.

Joseph (01:19:33):
Right, and I think this is another one of those
categories where the frontrunneris in really good shape.
Yeah, I think if we look at theBAFTA for comparison, the only
film to not get in there wasGladiator 2.
She's on back-to-backnominations.
I think that's the award enough.
It's the only film for excuseme, the only nomination for
Gladiator 2.
So we're really just looking atthe four BAFTA nominees.

(01:19:54):
Wicked, a Complete Unknown.
Conclave, nosferatu Of those, aComplete Unknown did not manage
to get a nomination at itsguild which is a little bit of a
handicap there.
Arianne Phillips has beennominated multiple times yet to
win.
That's certainly the angle thatthe campaign wants to take in
order to sort of get her overthe top.
But the favorite here has to beWicked.

(01:20:15):
It's, I believe, paulTazewell's second nomination
after West Side Story, for whichI believe he did not win.
No, he didn't.
I don't think that he won thatyear.
No, he lost to Cruella.
And so this should be an easywin for him and the work is
really good and it's certainlythe kind of thing that's going

(01:20:38):
to appeal to them.
Um, and then if you kind ofcompare that, you know it did
win that bafta.
And if you look at the costumedesigners guild, it won the I
believe fantasy category.
Uh, conclave won thecontemporary category and oscar
to one period.
Unfortunately, this is just thefirst nomination for linda muir
and oscar to, so I think that'sthe huge handicap there and for
you know, contemporary films,it's so difficult for them to
win here.
Even something like La La Land,for Mary Zoffries was not able

(01:20:58):
to win, and so I think it'sgoing to have a tough time
overcoming that.
Again, it's also the secondnomination for Liso Cristo, I
believe, but even then, thecontemporary bias is just so
significant.
And then, if you look at it,really the BAFTA is the best
sort of predictor of what'sgoing to happen.
I think they've only sort of inrecent history, missed the boat

(01:21:22):
sort of three times, and thatwas in 2022, when they missed
Elvis, but they had completelysnubbed Black Panther 2, the
eventual Oscar winner, which wasno surprise, because they also
missed in 2018 when BlackPanther, the first film was also
the winner for Ruth Carter forher wonderful work there, and
they went for the favorite,which is also wonderful.

(01:21:42):
But again they just they havethis thing against Black Panther
.
We'll call it, quote, unquote,that thing, whatever you want to
call it.
And then in 2016 actuallyactually is the most recent time
where they gave it to a filmthat was an Oscar nominee and
they chose it over one of theirown BAFTA nominees that would

(01:22:03):
end up winning the category,which is in 2016,.
Bafta went for Jackie when theOscars went to for Colleen
Atwood's work in FantasticBeasts, and it was also a BAFTA
nominee.
And so I think, looking at that, you kind of have a little bit
of a a handicap for A CommunityUnknown and a little bit of a
handicap for um Gladiator 2.

(01:22:26):
And then the favorite here hasto be Wicked, and it just makes
so much sense.
It has everything it needs.
It has, you know, there's a lotof overlap here between
production, design and makeup,and it has both of those,
correct.
You know it's a very visualmovie.
So I think this is, at minimum,a category that Wicked has to
win.
If Wicked loses this category,I can tell you it's going to be
a terrible night for Wicked.
But that's not going to happen.

(01:22:48):
Right, I think the favorite herehas to be Wicked and if pressed
to pick a spoiler, that's kindof the interesting part Very
difficult to pick one.
I mean, I would argue that youeither want to go with Conclave
because it's a best picturefavorite or because it has some
best picture steam or a completeunknown, and Arianne Phillips
finally, you know, gets that win.
She was nominated for her workon Walk the Line with this

(01:23:10):
director so maybe that's afactor.
nominated for her work on walkthe line with this director, so
maybe that's a factor I don'tknow.

Jules (01:23:15):
Who are you picking for a spoiler?
Uh, well, I like you, like you.
I think this is wicked's uh,wickets to have.
It's pretty, you know, it's apretty easy category for it to
win.
Um, I think it's definitelygoing to win.
That's the favorite.
My spoiler would actually becertainly between those two
films conclave and a completeunknown.
I just think that the costumework is a little bit flashier in

(01:23:36):
Conclave than it is in AComplete Unknown.
Personally, especially apartfrom the Bob Dylan character, I
think the other supporting caststands out a little less than
Bob Dylan costume-wise, and soI'm going to give conclave the
edge here and give that thespoiler.

(01:23:57):
But I agree with you, it's veryhard for contemporary film to
win here and it should easily bewicked.

Joseph (01:24:02):
That wins this you know what I?
I think you're right.
This is almost a category thatdoesn't require a spoiler.
Um, my choice is wicked, but Ithink my spoiler.
I'm actually going to end upgoing with nasferatu, which is
actually a little bit flashierthan either of those films.
And it did win the period sideand it is a production design
nominee and a cinematographynominee and a makeup nominee.

(01:24:22):
So you know if, if sometimesthere is some crossover which
again there barely is anybetween cinematography and
costume design, that would bethe angle that Nosferatu would
want to play, because Wicked didnot get nominated there.
So I'd say the favorite isWicked and the spoiler is
probably Nosferatu.

Jules (01:24:37):
Okay, moving on to the next category, best Production
Design.
The nominees were Conclave Dune, part 2, nosferatu the
Brutalist and Wicked.

Joseph (01:24:47):
Right, and so a lot of crossover here with a couple of
really important categories.
Certainly this is sort of asister category to costume
design.

Jules (01:24:54):
It's actually kind of interesting that Dune Part 2 did
a knife for costume design.
You would think that would be aslam dunk.
Foreshadowing, even possiblyyeah that was a big miss from
Dune Part 2.
Yeah, and unfortunate too.

Joseph (01:25:06):
I really love the work there.
But so if we look at thiscategory, a lot of again
crossover between this andcostume design.
It's best to start with somecontext.
So at BAFTA you had theBoudelist, conclave Dune,
nosferatu and Wicked.
So you went five for five,which is a really good sign, and
BAFTA ended up giving thataward to Wicked along with its
costume design award.

(01:25:26):
And over at the Art DirectorsGuild, which is actually pretty
important, the fantasy sectionof that guild went for Wicked,
the period went for Nosferatuand the contemporary went for
Conclave.
Now it's important to note that,like Conclave is facing the
same sort of contemporary bias,here, I mean, I think there's
maybe a few films that have beenable to beat it over time, but

(01:25:47):
not very many.
La La Land is a movie that wasable to beat it, but again, so
many nominations that year, sucha big favorite, but it's a huge
mountain to climb.
So I think that's somethingthat Conclave is possibly, you
know, ill-equipped to handle.
But if you kind of look at thefilms that BAFTA has gone for,
you know there's a number offilms that they go for that

(01:26:09):
doesn't necessarily materializein an Oscar win.
Now I still think Wicked is thefavorite, but some of these
films include something asrecent as Babylon.
Bafta actually went for Babylon,despite how crazy they were for
Aquaman and the Western Front.
They went for 1917, when theOscars went for.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,they went for the favorite and
they even snubbed Black Panther.
So you don't have tonecessarily be a BAFTA nominee

(01:26:31):
to survive to win the Oscar, butmore often than not that's the
case.
They went for Fantastic Beasts.
When the Oscar went to La LaLand, a contemporary film, they
went for Les Miserables.
Remember when Lincoln?
ended up surprising at theOscars with one of its few wins
and they went for Inception whenthe Oscars went for Alice in
Wonderland and Inception wassuch a big movie that year won

(01:26:52):
so many tech awards but itfailed to win that award and I
think the reason for that isbecause one of the most telling
signs here is you know, is yourfilm also a costume nominee?
You know there's a lot ofreally great work here in this
production design category, butwhen you look at the Brutalist
and Dune Part 2, two films thatyou know can sort of figure as

(01:27:14):
movies that could spoil, hereOne of the big issues is that
they don't have costumenominations.
And you know there's someoverlap with visual effects.
So this is especially true forDune, right, because Dune, like
Wicked, is a visual effectsnominee.
Yeah, so that's an extraadvantage it has.
But that costume snub is reallypainful for doing in this
category.
If you look at the films thatmanaged to sort of um win an

(01:27:36):
Oscar for this category, um,without costume nominations
there's only really one I thinkthat comes to mind in my
research, which is all quiet onthe Western front right, which
is a recent choice.
Um, but other than that, youknow the reason why something
like like um, alice inwonderland, can sort of sneak in
on something like inception,which is a bigger best picture

(01:27:57):
movie, is because it does havethat costume nomination, right.
Um, a reason why lalaland canstill maybe figure out how to
win here as a contemporary film,because it was also the rare
contemporary film with a costumenomination.
So that costume nomination thator that, I'd rather actually
say that costume snub, I thinkis really going to end up
costing both the Brutalist andConclave here and again.

(01:28:19):
It's just another reason whyWicked is the sort of really
calcified favorite, I think, ofthis race.
The other thing worth looking atis that you know we talk about
Aquarian and the Western Front.
You know it's the rare filmthat's able to win this category
without costume, and that'sthat it beat Babylon after

(01:28:39):
Babylon won both the BAFTA andthe art director's guild, right.
And so you kind of wonder howall acquiring the Western front
is able to sort of beat that.
You know that, uh, thatcombination, and the only thing
I can sort of think of is thatwe've been lately on a bit of a
streak since 2019, which is thatthe winner for production

(01:29:00):
design tends to be acinematography film.
So if wicked somehow loses thisfilm to something like the
brutalist which some people aretalking about, yeah, um, and you
know, possibly a little bitfurther out there, something
like a dune.
You'll know, it's because thecinematography became a factor.
Yeah, I don't think that'sgoing to happen, but if it were

(01:29:22):
to happen, then you know thatthat was.
That was the angle that theywere playing right um.
So I think right now um, Ithink the baptist sort of
solidified it the winner shouldbe Wicked and my runner up, I
would argue because of thatcinematography stat is probably
the Brutalist, the spoiler.

Jules (01:29:41):
Right, I think that you've made excellent points.
I 100% agree.
I do think this is like costumedesign Wicked's for the taking.
Wicked will win this categoryand my spoiler would be the
Brutalist, for the exact reasonthat you just pointed out, and
also that, because it's a filmyou know about an architect,
there might be some voters whojust sort of make that sort of

(01:30:02):
synonymous connection betweenwell, it's a film about an
architect, so of course I'mgoing to give it production
design, Even if I think that theproduction design in that film
is a little bit less in yourface and ostentatious as
something like Wicked yeah, andit's more par for the course
with its enigmatic themes RightHighbrow sort of themes Right,

(01:30:23):
and I think something that maybehurt the Brutalist, maybe
towards the end, is that wholeAI controversy.

Joseph (01:30:28):
Oh, yes, especially as it's used in the film to sort of
I believe, enhance certainbuildings or certain background
buildings, or something likethat.

Jules (01:30:36):
Maybe that might have played a part.

Joseph (01:30:37):
They never really got a handle on that, in my opinion.
And then the other thing I'llsay is that's really going for
Wicked?
Is that Nathan Crowley who'sthe nominee here?
You know he's really well known.
As far as I know, he's yet toactually win an award.

Jules (01:30:49):
Exactly.

Joseph (01:30:50):
And so that's something.
You know that even if you'renot the biggest Wicked fan, you
maybe want to see Nathan Crowleyget up there already.

Jules (01:30:55):
Absolutely A hundred percent.
So we're in agreement.
Wicked the favorite here, it'sgoing to win, and the spoiler is
the Boudalist.

Joseph (01:31:02):
All right.
Well, let's talk about bestcinematography.
That's a, that's a categorythat everyone loves.
So Maria and Nosferatu, somefamiliar faces here and some new
, some first-time nominees,right?

Jules (01:31:19):
Yes, very interesting to see Maria get its one nomination
here.
Right, we saw that comingbecause the great Ed Lachman,
right, the very brilliant, great, glorious Ed Lachman, when he
gets a nomination at the ASCC hetends to repeat at the Oscars
yeah, as you said, yeahinterestingly enough, at the ASC
, the American Society ofCinematographers, his work has

(01:31:40):
only been nominated with twodirectors yeah, so he's been
nominated, I think with threeprojects with Todd Haynes and
two projects with Pablo Larraínnow two, yeah, and so that's
interesting and the winner ofthe ASC was Ed Lachman, winning
his first competitive win hereat the ASC In a category that

(01:32:00):
included, like what seven filmsExactly, including some heavy
favorites, right?
Exactly.
So that was very telling, thatwas very interesting.
But I will say that the ASCdoesn't have terrific crossover
with the Academy over the lastsince 2000,.
They've missed about 11 times.
11 times the winner did notcorrelate with the winner of the

(01:32:23):
Academy Award.
So don't put too much stock onthe fact that Ed Lachman won for
Maria here.
He's never won an Academy Award.
So I know there's a bigcontingent in the academy who's
probably you know, really, um,you know, and outside the
academy, you know, certainly usdying to see him win an academy
award for his beautiful work.
However, I just don't think afilm.

(01:32:44):
That is the film's onlynomination solo nomination
exactly is going to be the thingthat does that.
Um, and so I wouldn't countmaria and the ASC win as a big
factor here and, like I said,they've missed 11 times since
2000.
And the ASC will prioritizeseveral times the film that they
honestly thought had the mostsignificant cinematography.

(01:33:09):
Yeah, and they won't really puttoo much stock in who's the
Oscar favorite or who's going towin Best Picture.
So you would think that theBrutalists, which is a favorite
in this category would walk awaywith that award at the ASC, and
it didn't.
And that's like in 2010,.
Hugo was a favorite and itended up winning the
cinematography award at theAcademy Awards, but they chose
the Tree of Life.

Joseph (01:33:30):
At the Guild.

Jules (01:33:30):
Right, which had a much more impact in terms of
cinematography than Hugo, in myopinion.

Joseph (01:33:35):
Right.

Jules (01:33:37):
And this was before sort of Emmanuel Lubezki became a
popular choice at the Oscars andwould eventually win for
something like Birdman right.
Exactly so.

Joseph (01:33:42):
the Guild is sometimes a little bit ahead of where the
Academy is.

Jules (01:33:45):
Right.

Joseph (01:33:45):
And also they're also taking into account careers,
right?
Because when you give give itto Ed Lockman and you know Ed
Lockman has been nominated fouror five times and has been
working since the eighties, youknow you realize that low
Crowley, for all the Vistavision of the Brutalist, maybe
can wait.
As a guild, You'd rather givethe award to Ed Lockman.

Jules (01:34:02):
And they did the same thing in 2009.
They prefer the cinematographyof the white ribbon, which is,
you know, incredible, over.
You know, the favorite.
That was Avatar.
But I very much think thatwhat's going to play out here is
a similar scenario, where theywent for what they thought was
the best cinematography and alsothe most one of the most iconic
cinematographers of our time inEd Lachman for Maria.

(01:34:24):
But the Brutalist is thefavorite here.
It's nominated for 10 AcademyAwards.
Vista Vision has been such anintegral part of not only the
experience of watching that filmbut also its campaign.
The promotion yeah, thepromotion, the campaign and the
marketing, and I think a lot ofvoters are going to sort of you
know, point to that, directthemselves to that as to a

(01:34:45):
reason why it's a must you know?
Vote for the Brutalist?
Yeah, Obviously, cinematographyis a big part of that film and
the experience of that film.
So I do think it's pretty safeto say that the Brutalist is
going to win this category.
We also looked at BAFTA.
Bafta misses less times thanthe ASC, Interestingly enough,

(01:35:05):
since 2000, they've missed abouteight times and they tend to
have a good correlation.
And the brutalist won thisaward.

Joseph (01:35:14):
Um, low crawley is british though.
Yeah, that's true.
If low crawley does not manageto repeat at oscars like at
bafta, that might be a littlebit of of the issue is that you
know, as sort of homegrowntalent.

Jules (01:35:24):
The bafta felt, you know, more open or urgent to sort of
award him yeah, um, so they'vemissed a few times, but they
tend to correlate pretty well.
I think the same will happenhere.
Uh, the BAFTA win for theBoudalas will be repeated at the
Oscars.
The Boudalas will win BestCinematography.
That'll count that as one ofits.
You know awards hall, and myspoiler in this category would

(01:35:48):
probably be um, nasra Rautu.
Um, this is Jaron Blaschke'ssecond nomination the Lighthouse
.
The Lighthouse anothercollaboration with Robert Eggers
.
Yeah.
And I think, like we talkedabout in a previous podcast,
this collaboration between Jaronand Robert Eggers is a
collaboration thatcinematographers are paying a

(01:36:10):
lot of attention to Will resultin an Academy Award at some
point, certainly.

Joseph (01:36:13):
I'm just not sure Nosferatu is.

Jules (01:36:13):
That film Is the film collaboration that
cinematographers are paying alot of attention to.
It will result in an AcademyAward at some point.

Joseph (01:36:15):
I'm just not sure.
Nosferatu is.

Jules (01:36:16):
That film Is the film, especially against a film like
the Brutalist, which is a BestPicture nominee.
But it will happen certainlyvery, very soon, and so I'm
going to point to that being thespoiler here.
I don't like that.
Amelia Perez didn't get an ASCnomination.
Yeah.

Joseph (01:36:32):
And as well as Maria Maria Missing the BAFTA
nomination.

Jules (01:36:39):
And so, yeah, I'm going to say comfortably that Anasul
Ratu is a spoiler here, but by avery large margin, very far
away from the favorite, which isgoing to be the Brutalist.

Joseph (01:36:48):
Right.
And then you know, I think theonly open door that Dune has
here is that sometimes when theyaward a cinematographer they
get a little bit in love withtheir work.
We know, that they liked GregFrazier's work in the first one.
Is it enough for them to wantto go and give it an award here?
Again, huge downgrade innominations from part one to
part two.
But you know, certainly you seeDune, and again it was promoted

(01:37:10):
as such a big visual spectaclefor the big screen, see Dune,
and again, it was promoted assuch a big visual spectacle for
the big screen, and so I have nodoubt that some voters are
going to.
You know, mark that down,especially if you're one of the
voters who knows how many therewere.
I guess you will find out soon.

Jules (01:37:22):
If that could not, you know, sit or tolerate you know
all three and a half hours ofthe brutalist Right.
That's a very good point.
I agree with you.

Joseph (01:37:29):
I don't like.

Jules (01:37:30):
I don't think Greg Frazier will win again after
winning for Dune part one,especially with the downgrade,
as you were saying.
Um, but yeah, I, I, I feelpretty good about that.
The Brutalist certainly thewinner and Nosferatu is the
runner up.

Joseph (01:37:44):
I agree, I'll take both of those as well.

Jules (01:37:47):
Okay, and now let's move on to the last category of this
episode, below the line textfinal predictions.
Let's go with best film editing.
The nominees are the BrutalistAmelia Perez, conclave Wicked
and Enora.

Joseph (01:38:05):
Well, listen, I think this is probably going to be
maybe the hardest category topredict.

Jules (01:38:11):
I was going to say that that, like we said in our sound
design category, a category likefilm editing can make or break
your Oscar pool.
So you really want to try topay as much attention as
possible to trying to get thiscategory right.
Unfortunately, it's one of thehardest categories to get right.
Um, as we'll see in a minute,technically, really, any one of

(01:38:32):
these films can win this awardfor film editing and they all
have their pros and cons andthey all have their reason that
it would make sense for them towin and the reasons why it
wouldn't.
So this is going to be a verytough category I mean, this
thing is really all over theplace.

Joseph (01:38:48):
Um, I think let's start where we have for almost every
other category.
Let's start with bafta right,bafta gave category.
Let's start with BAFTA Right?
Bafta gave this to Conclave onthe eve that Conclave would win
Best Picture also.
So Conclave won Best FilmEditing, which has made it the
favorite, I think, amongst mostpeople.
It certainly, you know, was ahuge win in its sale, going up
against the Nora right, right,um.

(01:39:15):
So one reason why this categoryis so important is because it
has the breadcrumbs as to whatmay or what may not happen for
best picture Exactly.
You know, it's always good toremember that, ever since CODA,
you know all these rules arecompletely, you know, disposable
.
So you know you never know whenDune part two is going to come
out and win best picture, andonly best picture.
It's possible, it could happenMurphy's Law, whatever CODA,

(01:39:37):
coda's Law, but anyway, you know, that's why we're always
looking at Best Film.
Editing is because we're tryingto figure out who has the edge
in picture.
And so BAFTA gave this award toConclave.
The BAFTA nominees thatoverlapped with the Academy were
Conclave, onora and AmeliaPerez, and I think that you know

(01:40:02):
those are three pretty goodnominations for what some may
argue were the films that at onepoint or another in the closing
last two months, have held astrong position, a strong
argument for winning BestPicture.
Before the Amelia Pereznosedive, it was, you know, the
emilia perez nosedive, it was,you know, the momentum has kind
of gone emilia perez, onora,conclave, somewhat right, so
it's kind of interesting thatthose are the three bapta oscar

(01:40:22):
overlaps.
Um, that's important and I'llbring that up, but just for
quick context.
You know, the the editors havea guild, the ace eddie.
Um, the majority of these filmsgot nominated all of them
except the brutalutalist, butit's a little, um, maybe not
worth going through them tooheavily, because the Ace Eddie
which is actually, I think, asmart decision have decided to
come out with their winnersuntil after Oscar nominations.

(01:40:44):
So they factored in a littlebit more in terms of guiding
people as to who the nomineeswould be or should be or could
be, and a little less so as towho the eventual winner will be.
It might be interesting to seewho those winners are after.
Oscar night actually.
Yeah, so we look forward to thatUm.
But so let's concentrate on theBAFTA Um, and why I think

(01:41:11):
that's important is because, forthe most part, the winner
should be among the BAFTAnominees.
As far as I can tell, the lastfilm to be able to win this
award without a BAFTA nominationwas the Girl with the Dragon
Tattoo, and so that, you know,maybe lends a little bit of a
lifeline to a film like Wickedand to a film like the
Brutalists who aren't on here,but the vast majority of the

(01:41:31):
time it will go to a film thatis a BAFTA nominee, and we know
which three of those are.
But in trying to sort ofdetermine which film stands a
chance to win this among those,let's look at some of the
overlap with other categories,and I think the best one to
start out with is sound.
Sound, yeah.

Jules (01:41:51):
There's a lot of overlap between those two categories.

Joseph (01:41:53):
Exactly, as a voter, sometimes you tend to sort of
split your brain into, you know,categories that were important
before cameras rolled and ascameras rolled, so that's
pre-production and production,and then categories that were
important post-production.
And so, no surprise here,categories like sound and film

(01:42:14):
editing.
They tend to go hand in hand,right, and you know the craft.
In and of themselves there's alot of mirroring to them,
similar interfaces, similartools.
So it's no surprise that votersin general, I think they're
looking at these categoriestogether and I think you know
you're at least mindful as towho you put.

(01:42:34):
And so the last film to winwithout a sound nomination was
actually pretty recent, which isEverything, everywhere, all at
Once, and some people pegged itas a sound nominee that year
because it was the best picturefavorite, because it looked like
it would win film editing.
But it did not get thenomination.
And despite being well rewardedfor sound that year, but it did
not get that nomination, anddespite being well rewarded for
sound that year, um, it missedout that Oscar nomination, but

(01:42:56):
it did manage to win that Oscarfor best film editing.
Um, interestingly enough, italso won the BAFTA for best film
editing.
And this is again a movie thatwas not very popular at the
BAFTA, but but so much ofeverything, everybody was at
once watching it.
You sort of realize that it'sgoing to be an easy ticket for a
voter to sort of stamp that asmy choice for best film editing.

(01:43:17):
You know, not unlikeOppenheimer with a lot of moving
parts.
You know, sometimes voters,they vote for the most overt
thing.
As you said what sound?
What's?
What's the loudest?
What has the most sound right,Exactly.
So what has the most cuts?
The most cuts as equals thebest cuts.
And you have to understand, youhave to sort of think that if
that's the mindset they're goingto bring, you know it certainly
does not bode great for a movielike onora, which is

(01:43:40):
beautifully cut.
But it's also very subtle work,very tonal work, has a lot of
shifting tones to it yeah butit's not a movie that they're
going to say is the most cut now, barring sort of everything
everywhere all at once.
The last movies that were ableto do it without a sound
nomination were 2006 for theDeparted and 2005 for Crash.
So if Onora somehow does manageto win this award, you have to

(01:44:06):
sort of think that it's going tofollow the trajectory of those
three films and pick up thattrophy at the end.
And I would also argue that youknow if Onora is that kind of
film if you look at Crash withits three wins.
The Departed picked up four outof five nominations and
Everything Everywhere All atOnce went crazy.
I don't think it's too much ofa stretch to believe that if

(01:44:28):
Onora picks up this prize, onorais going to have a really good
night.
And.
Onora, might, you know, sitreally nicely in that, you know,
uh, three out of six, four outof six area.
So that's why all eyes aregoing to be on this category.
But it's worth mentioning inthe case of Onora that you know,
one very sort of interestingaspect to its nomination here is

(01:44:49):
that the director is also theeditor here.
Sean Baker is the nominee forbest film editing for anora,
yeah, and so you know, we talkabout how anora could possibly
stand to win without that soundnomination, which is pretty
important, um, and following thesteps of crash that departed
everything everywhere, um, butif you kind of look at it, you

(01:45:11):
know, you kind of have to wonderif, if it does lose this
category, you know, if part ofit isn't going to be the idea of
deshaun baker.

Jules (01:45:19):
Do we have to get sean baker exactly or three awards
exactly, his first time breakingthrough with the academy.

Joseph (01:45:24):
That's exactly my point, and my comparisons are that
director editors can win thiscategory, and I think most
recently you'll see alfonsocoron win this category for
gravity he's a co-editor on thatand roderick james win the
category in 2007 for no countryfor all men, which is really
just the coen brothers.
Um, and so it does happen.

(01:45:45):
It happened for both thosefilms, one of which one best
picture, the other one one bestdirector.
But you know, the thing aboutboth those uh nominations and
those wins is that alfonso coronhad been nominated in that
category before, in 2006 forchildren of men, and roderick
james had been nominated beforein 1996 for fargo.

(01:46:06):
And so, as far as I know thiswould be, this is sean baker's

(01:46:28):
first nomination.
Sense that.
Are they also going to have himsort of break history and and
win on his first direct editingnomination, right as a director
editor.
Um, and then you know, when wetalk about the disadvantage of
not having that sound nominationand having to sort of walk the
path of three films inparticular, crash, the departed,
everything everywhere.

(01:46:48):
You know, onora is sort ofjoined with Conclave, right,
which was the BAFTA winner andis not a sound nominee either,
right, and the problem is that alot of people have sort of
flocked to the idea thatConclave has more moving parts
to its narrative, so it's a moretempting choice, and that it's
going to repeat its nominationat BAFTA.

(01:47:11):
You know, my research shows thatconclave has a huge problem
winning this category yeah whichis that, like a nora, it's not
a sound nominee, um, but moreimportantly, it's not a
directing nominee, and if youlook at this category, the
number of movies to win thiscategory without either a sound

(01:47:35):
nomination or a directingnomination are so scant that it
has to be a huge red flag ifyou're trying to campaign.
Conclave for this At BAFTA,where it won Best Film Editing.
It was a Best Director nominee.
Exactly Right.
In fact, edward Berger is amultiple nominee there and a
previous winner, but in thisparticular organization he's

(01:47:58):
never been honored for directorand in this instance in
particular, he got overlookedfor best director as well.
As the film got overlooked forsound and you and I, after
seeing it the first time,thought it would maybe qualify
for sound or be competitive insound.
It was not maybe qualify forsound or be competitive at sound
.
It was not.
So the last film that I couldfind that was able to win this
category without either a bestdirector nomination or a best

(01:48:19):
editing nomination goes all theway back to 1950.
Whoa, when King Solomon's minds, which happened to be a best
picture movie, was able to winthis category and cinematography
, um, and lose best picture Um,interestingly enough, conclave
is not an iron forcinematography and lose best
picture.
Interestingly enough, conclaveis not an iron for
cinematography either.
I think that goes to show that,while a lot of people are

(01:48:43):
putting their money on Conclave,that is a huge, huge risk.
You're talking about not onlyrepeating or trying to mimic
Onora's path via the crashdeparted.
Everything everywhere route,but crash departed and
everything everywhere.
They were all directingnominees.
Even something like crash stillmanaged to be a directing
nominee.

Jules (01:49:03):
With these stats, it becomes clear that, ironically,
clownclave is the favorite forthis category, but in reality
it's the weakest in thiscategory One, would think.

Joseph (01:49:13):
At least you know we talk about as we make these
predictions.
What are we going to payattention to?
Right stats are finding thebalance between stats and
momentum right and certainlyright now.
The momentum is with conclave.
Right after that, after youwould think it is the favorite,
but if you analyze the stats itis the most vulnerable film
after the buddha list, whichmissed a bunch of nominations.
Which doesn't mean that it'sout Again.

(01:49:37):
King Solomon's Mines did it in1950.
It just means that it's one hellof a mountain to climb.
And I don't think it'sincidental because, like I said,
I think when voters are lookingat film editing they do have in
mind sound, and there are somany film editing winners that
are also sound nominees Maybenot sound winners, but sound

(01:49:58):
nominees.
Like I said, I came up withthree titles Crash, the Departed
, everything, every While I Want.
All the other recent titleshappen to be sound nominees or
winners.
Whether it's Bohemian Rhapsodyor Sound of Metal, they all tend
to have a little bit of DNA andresidue there.
And the other thing is, you know, most people in the industry
talk about how film editing isso tied with directing.

(01:50:22):
Right, you want to be adirector?
Well, the first thing you haveto do is be a good editor learn
from the editing room, be anassistant editor, and so you
know, the craft of directing andthe craft of editing are so
intertwined that again I had togo all the way back to 1950, in
the era of cinema, where again amovie like King Solomon's Mind

(01:50:42):
is going to be an honor forthree awards, including Best
Picture, because it was justshot in color.
You know, it's such a long,long trajectory of it not
happening that this has to beterrible, terrible news for
Conclave.
Right.
Especially if they're trying toyou know, make this.
You know the sort of hill thatthey plant their flag on, as to
why they're going to win BestPicture.

Jules (01:51:02):
Right and I would say you know you're making, you're
bringing up excellent pointsthat I think far too few people
are paying attention to andusing those stats that you just
mentioned a Nor on the Brutalistbenefit from a Best Director
nomination, wicked benefits froma Best Sound nomination and,
oddly enough, emilia Perezbenefits from both, which is

(01:51:23):
also kind of ironic, I would say, because Emilia Perez ties the
editor from Wicked as being theonly individuals with multiple
nominations here.

Joseph (01:51:31):
The editor from Amelia Perez, very famous in the French
industry and has sort of dippedher toe in the American
industry with films like theHunger Games and Ocean's 8.
She was nominated for her workon the Diving Bell and the
Butterfly right, and then, ofcourse, the editor from Wicked
was nominated not too, long agofor his musical work in Tick,
tick, boom, right, and so it'ssort of interesting that you

(01:51:53):
bring that up, right Is thatConclave here is the only film
without either of those thingsand it makes it extremely
vulnerable.
And, nora, because Conclave hasthat, you know that director
snub, when they win film editing.
You know, both of those years,uncoincidentally, in my opinion,

(01:52:22):
they happen to be years wherethere's only one sound nominee.
There, you know, the only soundnominee that could have beaten
Crash was Walk the Line, not aBest Picture nominee, and the
only sound nominee that couldhave beaten the Departed was
Blood Diamond.
A lot of the other times inhistory, when there is at least
two movies that have a soundnomination, it tends to favor

(01:52:42):
one of them.
This is certainly true of, youknow, years where there's three
sound nominees, but also truewhen there's two, and there's
even been instances wherethere's again just one, that are
more recently, just one soundnominee among the film editing
nominees and it still tended tobenefit the sound film.

(01:53:03):
So I'm thinking most recently ofsomething like 2018, where a
film like Vice, which is reallyedited, you know, lost to other
Best Picture nominees like the F, the Favorite and Black
Klansman, but the winner wasreally Bohemian Rhapsody.
Bohemian Rhapsody was the onlysound nominee between that and

(01:53:25):
Black Klansman, the FavoriteGreen Book, and Vice right, and
so when voters got sort of posedas to, well, who am I going to
give it to there?
I mean, vice is extremelyedited.
It has a best directornomination, right.
They still went for the moviethat had sort of the bigger
sound element.
So what I'm trying to say thereis that that's sort of the

(01:53:46):
angle that if something likeEmilia Perez or Wicked wins,
that's what they're sort ofplaying.
One could argue that EmiliaPerez, beyond having sort of the
more veteran editor to benominated back in 2007 and
having a directing nominationand having a sound nomination,
that of the two it would be, youknow, the more tempting choice,

(01:54:08):
but with the nosedive that thecampaign has taken.
you know, you kind of wonder ifit gets surprised there, if it's
an absolute impossibility.
Wicked doesn't have a directingnomination, it only has the
sound nomination.
But surprisingly enough, thisis a category where you really
don't need that directingnomination as often as you would
think.
You know we had a huge span intime.

(01:54:30):
It's more integral to have Right, where a film without a
directing nomination won it.
So some of those films wereBohemian Rhapsody, some of those
films were the Girl with theDragon Tattoo, argo.
These are all titles thatmanaged to win this category
without a directing nominationand still having a presence and
sound.
Exactly, look at something likeWhiplash or Hacksaw Ridge,

(01:54:51):
right 4V Ferrari.
You don't need a directing sortof background hero nomination
to pull off that win.
What you need to be is, as Isaid, with those films, kind of
sound heavy and spectacle heavyand film editing heavy.
I don't think there's a hugefilm this year that yells.
It's the most cut, butcertainly when you look at the
work at Wicked, there is a lotof cuts in it.

(01:55:13):
Right, it's also his secondnomination.
The campaign isn't nosediving.
It's a nominee for sound.
It could possibly win sound, soI think it stands a really good
chance of possibly stealing anod here and then I think I'm
sorry a win here.
I think the only detriment ithas is that we're sort of kind
of on a mini streak.
Right when that since 2020,since the pandemic, the previous

(01:55:37):
winners here have all beenscreenplay movies, which emilia
perez is, but wicked is notright, you know, sound of metal
was a screenplay nominee, dune,everything every well at once,
oppenheimer they were allscreenplay nominees.
So is wicked going to be thefilm that sort of breaks that
mini streak and takes us back tothat sort of era where again
those films could win, likehacksaw ridge, like dunkirk, um,

(01:55:59):
without um writing nominations.
Of hacksaw ridge has a directnomination, so did dunkirk, but
they did not have writingnominations.
Um, bohemian rhapsody wonwithout either.
It didn't have a writingnomination or directing
nomination, it was just thesound.
And is Wicked going to be thefilm that brings us back to that
sort of a moment in time whereyou know, I don't really care

(01:56:19):
that it doesn't have either ofthose things, it's just my
preference here because it's abigger sound movie.

Jules (01:56:23):
Right exactly.

Joseph (01:56:24):
Look, I think this is going to be one of the toughest
categories to predict and Ithink it could be full of
surprises.
The Conclave win, win, which Ithink uncle derby it's the
favorite right now in and ofitself would be a surprise again
1950 yeah and so I think thatany one of these films could
potentially come and upset evensomeone like emilia perez has
the veteran sort of editor thereand it has the directing, the

(01:56:45):
screenplay and the sound.
So I mean, I really think it'sanyone's game.
I think that you, you know,most recently, everything
Everywhere was able to pull off,won that.
I mean, I don't think onora isthat type of film right but if

(01:57:16):
it does win this, it'll bebecause, again, sometimes it's
more important to sort of votefor your favorite.
Um, I don't know who you'rethinking right now.
Um, who are you possiblythinking as the winner here and
the spoiler?

Jules (01:57:29):
I, I think I agree with you.
This is one of the hardestcategories to predict, and the
more that we talk about it, theless attractive Conclave appears
.
And it's also the favorite,which is ironic.
A movie like Wicked seemsincredibly attractive.

(01:57:53):
Mentioned a couple of times this, this episode, the kind of
spectacle driven film that endsup over-performing, like Doom
Part Part One recently, andgetting a big, a big uh haul of
of wins on Oscar night.
Um, it could surprise in visualeffects, it could surprise here
in in in film editing, it couldsurprise in sound, and so it
could really end up being a filmthat walks out with five
Academy Award wins out of its 10nominations.

(01:58:15):
That's a very distinctpossibility.
And yet it's probably the most,the least popular film amongst
the group to win this category.
That's odd.
At the same time, you could goin the other direction and give
more weight to a film like Onoraand the Brutalist, and even
Amelia Perez, if you want, asfilms that have both a directing

(01:58:37):
nomination and a screenplaynomination.
Maybe if we take out AmeliaPerez, because there's no
salvaging it to win.
The campaign, exactly thecampaign.
But also there's no way it'sgoing to win Best Picture than
possibly.
You know, it's kind of athrowaway vote.
If you vote for Amelia Paris.
Um, uh, nora and the Brutalistshave screenplay nominations,

(01:58:58):
have director nominations andeither of them could also take
this category.
Um, it's really, really tough.
Um, I'm really not sure who'sgoing to win this category and
I'm very much wavering.
So, whatever I say now, I'mstill going to be thinking about
it.

Joseph (01:59:13):
Oh yeah, I might change it.

Jules (01:59:14):
I might change it back and forth, back and forth.
I know that I don't want tovote for Conclave, because
there's just too many red flags.
There's just too many red flags.
Again, it would be surprisingyou know, will I be shocked if
it happens and it continues withthe momentum that it's had at
the.
Fafta I.
I won't be shocked but, like wesaid, the stats are very much
against it, it's tough.

(01:59:34):
So right now I'm going to saythat amidst this group.
I also don't think there's inthis group even Wicked that has,
quote unquote, lots of cuts.
I don't think in this groupthere's a lot of there's any
film that's ostentatiouslyedited.
Super edited In such a waywhere it just screams you gotta,

(01:59:55):
you gotta vote for me for forbest editing.
Well, conclave's.
Conclave's a thriller,supposedly, yes, but even.
But there's a nuance to sort ofits its craft Right.
And so, with with that in mind,I think you're right.
Voters will end up choosing thefilm they most preferred, as

(02:00:17):
opposed to the film that theythink is most cut.
And so I think that thatbenefits a film like Onora, who
I think will do well in thepreferential ballot and will do
well at the end of Oscar night,as we'll see soon in our next
episode.
And so I have a temptation tosay that in this group, taking
out Conclave, you know know, thefilm that stands out the most
as you know, the stronger of thegroup is an aura, which is no

(02:00:40):
surprise.
It has a direct nomination, ithas a writing nomination.
Um has acting nominations.
So my pick is going to be anaura and my spoiler is going to
be wicked um.
I know it.
I know it's not a popularchoice whatsoever.
I like its sound nomination.
I think it has the potential tosurprise and get more wins than

(02:01:00):
people think.
Right now people feel verycomfortable with production
design and costume design.

Joseph (02:01:04):
It can easily overperform.
It can balloon.

Jules (02:01:07):
It overperformed in nominations, case in point.
So my runner up is going to beWicked Um, and you know this is
pretty unfortunate for AmeliaParrish, because I've actually
had the best case scenario towin this category you know, with
its down nomination, with itsdirecting nomination, with its
writing nomination, it reallyhad everything it needed to win

(02:01:29):
this category.

Joseph (02:01:29):
Yeah.

Jules (02:01:30):
And it just goes to show you you know everything that
gets lost when you know yourcampaign goes you know haywire.
Yeah, and so Emilia Perez wasshould have been the winner in
this category.
It's not going to be.
I believe my pick is Anora.
My spoiler is Wicked and I'mvery very confused.

Joseph (02:01:53):
I'm going to change this five minutes after we're done
talking and five minutes beforethey hand out the award.
So really I can just give youmy best gut reaction with
everything.
That sort of the research andnumbers sort of show likes the

(02:02:15):
idea of Nora following in thesteps of Crash and Departed and
being a contemporary sort offilm that had less nominations
but was able to capitalize onits sort of you know, larger
economic and political themesabout the United States and that
sort of leads to a Best Picturewin that includes a Best
Editing win and a Directing winand possibly a Screenplay win
and, like the Departed, ends up,you know, winning something
like four awards, something likeParis had as well, four awards,

(02:02:37):
three to four awards.
Crash won three.
So part of me likes that.
But when I really inspect, youknow, the film and I put it
against films like the Departedand Crash, I think just voters
are going to see that there aremore moving parts to those
contemporary films, whether it'sCrash, the Departed, everything
, every wall at once.
So because of that I'm going tosay that that's going to be the

(02:02:58):
determining factor, that thesubtle sort of tonal work that's
going on there for Onora isgoing to, you know, bury it,
bury its chances here.
Not to mention I also don'tlike the whole Cuaron Roderick
James stat that they won ontheir second nomination and this
is only Sean Baker's firstnomination as an editor.
So I'm actually going to givethe edge to Wicked right now.

(02:03:23):
I think it has enough cuts.
I don't think there's anythingthat's too much more overly
edited.
I think Amelia Perez would beperfect, but it's sort of
nosedived here.
It would be really interestingif it wins at the end.
Like I said, she is the moreveteran nominee but I'm going to
go with Wicked.
It has those multiplenominations.
I think this category has shownthat it doesn't need to have a

(02:03:45):
directing nomination to win.
It doesn't need to have awriting nomination to win.
A lot of times it's spectacleand I think Wicked has that in
aces and it has that soundnomination, possibly a sound win

(02:04:06):
, and I think that the categoryhas shown historically that
prefer that than a Nora sort ofbeing considered as edited, as
everything everywhere Crash orthe Departed and I also like it
more than Conclave beating.
You know so many years ofhistory and going all the way

(02:04:26):
back to 1950.
Now if Conclave manages to beatthat history and be the first
one since 1950, then I reallyhave no doubt in my mind that
it's going to be a Conclavenight at Best Picture and people
are going to.
I can see it now, the headlinesthat you know.
People talk about 10 years fromnow or five years from now when
they totally rejudge this movieand call it a piece of crap,

(02:04:49):
which, again, I enjoy this movie, I enjoyed Conclave.
I enjoyed all the movies I likeConclave, conclave, you know, a
really enjoyable film.
But again, if it does win BestPicture, if it does win editing,
people are going to call itcrap, unfortunately.
But I can see people saying weshould have known, we should
have known, you know whenConclave is strong enough to
beat, you know the idea ofwinning best film editing,

(02:05:12):
without directing and withoutsound.
We should have known that itwas going to be able to sort of
win best picture.
I can see people complainingabout it now, the same way that
if a Nora wins this category, Ican see people sort of praising
it, sort of you know, as a, weshould have known that a Nora
was going to win like four orfive awards and Mikey Madison
was going to win too, becauseyou got to give him more awards
because they just fell in lovewith it.

(02:05:33):
Because it didn't have thatsound nomination, it still won.
But so my favorite is Wickedfor the Win and my spoiler is,
knowing the Academy that I'veobserved and the coda of it all,
I would say Conclave makes KingSolomon's Mind's history and
wins editing and picture at theend.

Jules (02:05:55):
I think those are good points.
I wouldn't go that far, youknow.
I don't think that if Conclavein the event were to win this
award, it would automaticallymean that it's going to win Best
Picture.
The same way that I wouldn'tsay that if Wicked wins this
award and ends up having four orfive wins, oh that's it, Wicked
is going to win Best.
Picture.
I treat it that way.
I'm not necessarily sure thateither of those wins would point

(02:06:17):
me in that direction personally, but I will say something that
I just thought about right now,and you brought up a really good
point with the editingnomination for the Coen Brothers
films and the editingnomination for the-.
The.
Fulton Carone films, I will saythat their situation is

(02:06:39):
different from Sean Baker in away, because they haven't edited
all of their films, whereasSean Baker, as an editor, has
been an integral part as aneditor in all of his films I
believe all of his films.
I believe all of his films.
And so very much in the DNA ofa filmmaker of Sean Baker's

(02:07:00):
caliber is that he edits his ownfilms, that sometimes he's a
co-editor but he edits his ownfilms.
So it's not the same as AlfonsoCuaron dipping his toes into
editing a certain number offeatures in his, in his overall
but you know so much a part ofthe Sean Baker package is that

(02:07:21):
he's a do-it-all himself artistand so he directs and he
produces and he writes and heedits.
That is, I think, part of thereason that Sean Baker is
finally getting celebrated forhis work to such an extent,
because he kind of epitomizesthat kind of artist in a way a
do-it-all-yourself artist, andthat's part of the beauty of the

(02:07:45):
package that is Sean Baker I'mlooking at.
That differentiates Sean Bakerfrom someone like Alfonso Cuaron
and artists like the Coenbrothers that I think might
really just make the differencehere as to why he's able to
prevail and win on his firstnomination as an editor, because

(02:08:07):
editors are already aware, aswell as some filmmakers are
aware, that editing is just partof the Sean Baker package and
that's not the case so much withAlfonso Cuaron or with the Coen
brothers.
So I will say that that'ssomething that's going for Sean
Baker and that's why I'msticking to my guns and saying
Sean Baker, the winner in thiscategory.

Joseph (02:08:25):
It's a strong point.
I think it's a very strongpoint.
I mean, I would have liked itif maybe Sean Baker would have
gotten a guild nod beforehandfor either the florida project
or maybe red rocket in thecomedy section in 2021.
That would have given me alittle bit more of an
understanding that you knowvoters are appreciating him, as
you said, as that kind of artistright now.

(02:08:46):
I'm just afraid that for mostvoters, you know, the idea of
what you just expressed is goingto be a bridge too far for them
and and they're just going to,they're just going to come at it
from a perspective of, okay,well, what had the most cuts and
what would demand the most cuts?
Right, right, yeah, well, Imean, listen, this category
right here is absolute murder.

Jules (02:09:04):
And, like I said, look for this category to be, like
sound, the thing that makes orbreaks your Oscar pool.
So just watch out, keep alertand try your best.
If you're you know doing yourbets, you know part of your
Oscar party.
This is something you want totry to get right as much as
possible.
Yeah, yeah, all right.
Well, that has been a verylengthy episode, but we tackled

(02:09:25):
so many categories in thisepisode.
Yeah, giving our finalpredictions, it's been fun.
Our next episode will be theabove the line categories.
We'll be looking at screenplay,at acting, at director and our
picture.

Joseph (02:09:36):
Stay tuned.

Jules (02:09:37):
And we'll be giving our final predictions there.
Um, and we look forward to, uh,assessing that.
You know, we're really gettingclose to the end of all this and
it's getting sort of you knowthe butterflies in your stomach
stage.
You wonder what's going tohappen.
Um, maybe it would just bedisappointing.
It's just all downhill.

(02:09:59):
Yeah, you know, right at thestart of the ceremony.
But anyway, we went through alot.
Thanks for staying with us,thanks for listening to us and
considering our points.
Um, we look forward to our nextepisode and until then, this is
jules and I'm joseph, and it'sbeen a pleasure.
The music on this episode,entitled Cool Cats, was
graciously provided by KevinMacLeod and incompetechcom,

(02:10:22):
licensed under Creative Commonsby Attribution 3.0.
Tp//creativecommonsorg licensesbuy 3.0.

Joseph (02:10:43):
Disclaimer the Academy Anonymous podcast is in no way
affiliated or endorsed by theAcademy of Motion Picture Arts
and Sciences.

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