Oscar Season 2024-2025; Final Predictions for Oscar Night, Part 2; Chalamet SAG win exposes Brody’s vulnerability for Best Actor; Fernanda Torres and Demi Moore Neck-And-Neck for Best Actress; “Anora” fights off a “Conclave” upset

Episode Transcript
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Jules (00:14):
hey, welcome back to academy, anonymous, I'm jules
and I'm joseph, and this is parttwo of our final predictions
for the academy awards.
The last episode dealt withbelow the line categories
everything from editing tocinematography, to sound design,
to visual effects thedocumentary feature the works.
Please check out that episodeif you haven't.

(00:34):
And this episode will deal withthe above the line categories.
We'll be focusing on screenplay, on acting, on directing and
finally picture.
So let's get right into it.
There's a lot to go through.
Let's start with adaptedscreenplay.

Joseph (00:46):
I think are arguably out of this group is maybe the
easiest category to predictshould be the easiest category,
if, if the predicted favoritedoes not win, something went
wrong.
Uh, the nominees for refresherwere a complete unknown conclave
emilia perez, nickel boys andsing, sing.
So what are you thinking?

Jules (01:06):
Great.
I think the favorite isobviously Conclave and I think
amidst this group it's the clearwinner.
I really don't see much toderail Conclave.
To be honest, I think this isthe one award that Conclave has
in the bag.
It has ever since it won thatGolden Globe Best Screenplay.
I think that this film in thebag, um, it has ever since it

(01:26):
won that golden globe uh, bestscreenplay.
Um, I think that this filmmakes perfect sense why it's
sort of become the favorite inthe best adapted screenplay
category.
Um, you know, just narrative,narratively, the way the film
you know works and navigates itsthemes is something that you
know um would appeal to uhwriters as a, as a whole.

(01:46):
Um, and you know it's sort ofdelicious, sort of intrigue is
something that it's going toappeal uh widely to an Academy
when they're considering what'sthe best screenplay here, um
from an adapted source.
Yeah.
So it makes perfect sense whyConclave is number one here.
So I think Conclave isabsolutely the winner here, and
if I had to say a spoiler, Iwould probably say an outside

(02:10):
chance, very outside chance, ofNickel Boys storming in and
stealing, sort of in a shock,the best adapted screenplay
category.
Only because it's such aradical adaptation, the film is
still managed, with Plan B'shelp, to get a Best Picture
nomination.

Joseph (02:29):
And when it's gold, the adapted screenplay Right.

Jules (02:32):
I think there is a contingent within the Academy
that's passionate about thatfilm, and so I certainly can.
I mean I think it's.
I'm not sure I would even go sofar as to label it possible,
but if I had to come up with aspoiler, it would be that film
and the sort of passionate groupof people that are probably

(02:52):
supporting that film and votingfor that film.
But again, I just think the gapis way too large between Nickel
Boys and Conclave.

Joseph (02:58):
Yeah, I agree.
I agree with both your frontrunner and the spoiler.
I think Peter Straughan.
This is not his firstnomination.
He's the writer from tinkertrey's order spy technically a
lot of sort of overlap betweenthat movie and conclave, so I
think this should be an easy winfor conclave.
Um, I think if conclave missesthis, then I think us like the

(03:18):
majority of pundits got thiscompletely backwards and serious
trouble for conclave.

Jules (03:23):
Yeah, um, but I think things will turn out well for it
here in this category for sure.
This completely backwards andserious trouble for Colin Cliff,
yeah, but I think things willturn out well for it here in
this category for sure.
Now let's move on to a veryinteresting category.

Joseph (03:31):
In original screenplay, the nominees are the nominees
were Onora the Brutalist, a RealPain, september 5, and the
Substance.

Jules (03:48):
Now, I think the BAFTA win for A Real Pain made this
category more interesting.
I know the Substance won theGreatest.
Choice Award.
We had toyed with the idea ofthe Substance being a bigger
threat in this category, becausethe filmmaker, the director, is
also the writer, coralieFargeau.
She has a best directornomination.

(04:10):
If the Academy wanted tosupport a female filmmaker in
the writing category becausethey weren't going to support
her in the best directorcategory, then she would stand a
great chance of upsetting here.
That being said, as the daysand weeks have gone, gone by,
I've become less confident in amovie like the substance.
Um, I've become more concernedthat that film is maybe uh, you

(04:34):
know repelling people more thanit is pulling people in yeah and
so I think that it's sort offallen into third place in this
group of nominees, and I I wouldsay that the again the BAFTA
win for A Real Pain has reallymade this a race between will A
Real Pain win the originalscreenplay category, despite not

(04:54):
having a Best Picturenomination, over Onora, which is
one of the favorites for BestPicture and clearly you know a
film that has, yeah, severalnominations, several important
nominations.
You and I were two people whowere predicting a real pain to
get a best picture nominationwhen it missed that nomination.
You and I thought that was abad sign for screenplay.

(05:16):
Again, the bafta win put somemore win in its sails.
Um, I will say that somethingthat we were looking at for this
category was how often, as oflate as a trend, has the
original screenplay winner hadsome crossover with the
toronto's people choice, thetoronto's people's choice award

(05:36):
yeah at the torontointernational film festival and
we found some pretty goodcorrelation.
You know, ever since 2010they've only missed three years
when a movie mentioned in somekind of you know placement in
the toronto's people's choice,whether it be first place,
second place or third place.
They haven't always had three,three, three places, but

(06:00):
somewhere along that group offilms selected as the people's
Choice Award winner andrunner-ups.
Since 2010, there's only beenthree years where they didn't
coincide, or at least a film inthat group didn't win a
screenplay Oscar, and I think,if you think about that, that's

(06:21):
a pretty interesting stat.
And the three years were 2020,when Promising Young Woman won,
and that year, I believe,nomadland, one Eye, miami and
Beans, a Canadian film, Ibelieve were the films that made
Toronto's People's Choice one,two and three.
Obviously Promising Young Womanhad premiered, I believe, in.

Joseph (06:42):
Sundance yeah.

Jules (06:43):
And so it didn't have a chance.
It was also the pandemic year.

Joseph (06:46):
Yeah, it was the pandemic.

Jules (06:47):
So that's something to keep in mind.
2016, manchester by the Seawins, and at the Toronto
People's Choice, you have La LaLand, which was in contention
for screenplay, lost toManchester by the Sea.
You have Lion, which was alsonominated, and you have Queen of
Catouet.
And then you have 2011, whenWoody Allen won for Midnight in
Paris and the winner for theToronto People's Choice Award

(07:10):
was when Do we Go Now?
And the runner-ups wereStarbuck and A Separation Right.
So, barring those three yearssince 2010, a winner in that
group of films for Toronto'sPeople's Choice has actually won
an Oscar for screenplay.
I think again, like I said,that's a really interesting stat

(07:31):
.
Yeah.
And I would say that that kindof leaves us with only two
options.
Yeah, considering that MikeFlanagan's film won the
Toronto's People's Choice Awardand that's not coming out until
later this year, that onlyleaves you with Emilia Perez and
Onoraora for one of them topick up exactly at least one of
them.
I don't know if there have beenyears when more than one there

(07:51):
might have been have won ascreenplay oscar, but certainly
at least one film in that groupshould win a screenplay oscar
yeah um, considering recenttrends, and if we discard emilia
paris, because to begin withit's kind of a weird screenplay
nominee because they don'ttypically nominate musicals or
they haven't in a long while.
There's been a really dry spelland also we consider the

(08:14):
nosedive of the campaign.
That really leaves Nora in areally prime position to really
be one of the films that placedin the Toronto People's Choice
and wins this award for originalscreenplay.
Yeah.
And so I think that's somethingthat's really something to keep
an eye out for why Onora reallystands to prevail in this
category.

Joseph (08:34):
That gives it an edge.
And I think also you and I havegone back and looked at the
original screenplay category andwe had trouble finding a movie
to win that category right thatwas not nominated for best
picture.

Jules (08:47):
I think we had to go all the way back to 2004 to when
eternal sunshine the spotlessmind yeah was able to win that
category, interestingly enough,in a year where obviously there
was no expansion and there wereonly five nominees for all we
know.
In 2004, eternal sunshine mighthave been a best picture
nominee in spots 10, 9, 8.
Who knows?

(09:07):
certainly, uh, but we went wewent as far back as 2000 and we
found eternal sunshine, thespotless mind.
Another film we found was talkto her, which had a best
director nomination.
Maybe that would have made ayear a best picture in a year of
10 or or, or nine or eight orwhatever.
And then you also had almostFamous, which for certain would
have been a film that would havemade an expansion list an

(09:30):
expanded list of best picture.

Joseph (09:31):
And what's kind of interesting about all of those I
mean specifically about 2004,eternal Sunshine of a Spotless
Mind and 2002, talk to Her isthat if you look and you analyze
those years and those nomineesfor best original screenplay,
you know in 2004, the only BestPicture movie to be nominated
for Original Screenplay was theAviator, the only top five movie

(09:52):
there.
And the same happened in 2002when Talk to Her wins that award
.
I believe there was only oneBest Picture movie to be
nominated in that category.
I think it was Gangs of NewYork.
And so the number of moviesnominated those years that
weren't best picture nomineesdrastically overwhelmed those
that were best picture nominees.

(10:12):
And so if that's the case, it'sin the, the odds are in the
favor of the films that were notright, not nominated for best
picture.
You have a four and five shot.
But that's not the case thisyear.

Jules (10:23):
Right, this year you have An substance and the brutalist,
all of her best picture, evenif a real pain didn't make it at
the end right right, whichmeans that you have a three and
five shot, that the winner forbest original screenplay is a
best picture nominee right, andI also want to say, as we
pointed out last episode, anorawas mysteriously, mysteriously
did poorly at the BAFTA andstill somehow won best actress.

(10:44):
Yeah.
But don't put too much stock onthe winners for the BAFTA
screenplay category.
They've been kind of shoddy,especially as of late.
You know if you rememberBanshees of Inisharan.
Licorice Pizza One exactlyLicorice Pizza, the Favorites,

(11:05):
Three Billboards Outside EbbingMissouri.
All those were films that wonrecently the BAFTA Best Original
Screenplay category, and stilllost the Oscar.

Joseph (11:08):
Yeah, it didn't materialize at the Academy
Awards.

Jules (11:10):
Right so I wouldn't put too much stock on A Real Pain
winning at the BAFTAs.
Also, we have to consider againthe very big glaring sort of
hiccup here is that again it's abig deal that a film like A
Real Pain didn't make BestPicture.
Yeah.
And that it's up against threeother films that did.
Yeah.
And so that really puts it at adisadvantage, as we've been

(11:33):
saying.
But also the likelihood what isthe likelihood?
That A Real Pain, nominated fortwo Academy Awards a supporting
actor for Kieran Culkin andBest Original Screenplay is
going to walk out having wonthose two awards and not have
made it to Best PictureAbsolutely In a year of 10.

Joseph (11:49):
Exactly.
I mean, the odds of a filmgoing perfect without a Best
Picture nomination are sounlikely.
And to that point I think welooked at the winners for the
Writer's Guild Award where Onoradid triumph over a real Pain
and we couldn't really find anyinstances where the Writers
Guild Award winner for originalscreenplay didn't match up with

(12:10):
the Oscars choice for originalscreenplay, unless it was
somehow disqualified, forexample something like Birdman.
But Onora beat A Real Pain andthe only film that sort of came
back from a loss at the WritersGuild Award to then go ahead and
win at the academy awardsbecause it was eligible for the
writers guild award was greenbook, which was the again
eventual best picture winner,which is not going to be the

(12:32):
case for real pain this yearbecause it's not nominated
exactly.

Jules (12:35):
So all that to say that you know I think anora is in
really good shape here to winthis award.
Um, and that threats like areal pain and the substance are
not going to materialize, and somy predicted winner here is
Onora and my spoiler would be, Iguess, a real pain, considering
it's BAFTA win, but I feel veryconfident about Onora winning

(12:57):
this.

Joseph (12:57):
I agree, I agree.
I think it's Onora's to loseand I think a real pain is a
distant second.
All right, and I think A RealPain is a distant second.
All right, perfect, all right.
So let's jump to theperformance side of things and
let's look at Best SupportingActor.
Let's start there and let's doa refresh of the nominees.
The nominees were Edward Nortonin A Complete Unknown, jeremy

(13:17):
Strong in the Apprentice, guyPearce in the Brutalist, kieran
Culkin in A Real Pain and YuraBorisov in Nora, and almost all
first timers here except EdwardNorton.
So I mean, we thought thatwould be a factor, I think.
What do you think we're at now?

Jules (13:35):
Right, I think, like a screenplay this is a like
adapted screenplay.
This is a very kind of easycategory to predict.
You and I had sort of um, wewere inclined to think that
Edward Norton would surprise,possibly here with the strength
of a real, of, excuse me, acomplete unknown.
Um, and again, that nevermaterialized.

(13:56):
Um, after all the you knowtelevised precursors, it became
clear that Kieran Culkin was byby and large the favorite and
that even Edward Norton on hisfourth nomination, I believe
wasn't going to derail thattrain.
And especially after the BAFTAswhere A Real Pain won the two
awards it was nominated for,right, you know, it became clear

(14:16):
that A Real Pain is not goingto go out empty-handed from this
Oscar ceremony and that thefavorite is clearly Kieran
Culkin.
And Kieran Culkin willabsolutely win this category.
Um, I love that performance.
It's my favorite of the grouptoo.
I think this is a greatcategory.
Yeah.
The Oscars.
Typically, I don't feel asstrongly about the supporting
actor category.

(14:37):
This year it's terrific yeah.

Joseph (14:38):
It's great they're all great.

Jules (14:40):
Um, if I had a ballot, I'd probably nominate all of
them myself.
Yeah.
And so you know, really anybodywinning this category.
I'd be fine with Um so reallygreat category, but again,
kieran Culkin is the clearfavorite.
There's been some late breakingpassion.
Uh, if you were, you know, ifyou listen to the quote, unquote

(15:03):
, you know, anonymous Oscarballot.
There's been some latebreakingbreaking passion for
Jeremy.
Strong in the.
Apprentice, which isinteresting because now we have
again this Kieran Culkin versusJeremy.

Joseph (15:11):
Strong sort of scenario.
Yeah, yeah, I think that'swhat's happening to voters is
that they're choosing betweentheir favorite succession
characters.

Jules (15:18):
Exactly, and so you know it's sort of interesting to see
them back in that sort ofhead-to-head match.
that being said, I still thinkjeremy strong is way too far
behind yeah he's not going toeclipse kieran colkin here and
uh, kieran, kieran colkin is thefavorite it would be quite a
surprise yeah, uh, kieran colkinwins in my opinion, and then I
would say that the spoiler I'mactually, I'm actually, I'm

(15:39):
actually going to still saywould have been, or might be,
edward Norton, for a completeunknown.
Just again, those fournominations.
He's playing a real life figure.
That's very important for theacademy, as we will see when we
start talking about the leadacting categories.
Um, you know, that's stillsomething that you know I think
technically could happen yeah sohe's my spoiler.

(16:01):
But again, you know, the gap isfar and wide, and so Kieran
Culkin is clear, the clearwinner here.

Joseph (16:07):
I'm sensing the same thing.
Remember at the SAG awards,when Kieran Culkin gave a really
messy speech but, somehow, youknow, it's always somewhat
charming and disarming and verygenuine, and it's, it's appealed
to a lot of people, even ifsometimes it's frustrating.
But remember, at the SAG awards, when they were doing the I
don't know the first time yougot your sag card.

Jules (16:28):
And you have kieran colkin there as a little boy in
home alone.

Joseph (16:29):
Yeah, I think that has some something to do with, you
know, um, the reason he'swinning.
I mean, he's in a fantastic film, gives a great performance,
he's had a great run ontelevision, um, but he's also,
you know, been a member of theindustry for so long and I think
people know that and peopleempathize with that and and it
really appeals to their emotions, and I think he's carried the

(16:50):
victory with sincerity, um, andso I think that, absolutely, I
think this is a walk for colkin.
He's won everything.
He'll win the oscar.
Um, the spoiler, I agree withyou.
I think edward norton has theedge there because he's's been
nominated so many other timesand he's playing a real life
character.

Jules (17:06):
Exactly, and so we're both in agreement there.

Joseph (17:08):
Yeah, this should be easy for him.

Jules (17:11):
All right, now we're moving on to best supporting
actress.

Joseph (17:14):
Right and the nominees.
There were Isabella Rossellinifor Conclave, monica Barbaro for
A Complete Unknown, felicityJones for the Brutalist, zoe
Zaldana for Emilia Perez andAriana Grande for Wicked.

Jules (17:28):
All right and, as we mentioned early on when we were
talking about in our lastepisode, original song, you know
there's this.
You know, thought that's sortof in the air for some pundits
that Emilia Perez is going to goempty handed on Oscar night.
And you know, while anything ispossible, I certainly don't
think that's the case.

(17:49):
Um, I think if there's onenomination that I feel pretty
comfortable predicting AmeliaParis to win, it is best
supporting actress.
I think there's a reason why,you know, even with all this
controversy, you know, the ZoeZaldana boat has remained afloat
and steady.
Yeah, you know I don't thinkthere are voters who are blaming
her in any way whatsoever forthe Carla tweets or forever for

(18:12):
whatever controversy the filmhas met.
Um, I think there's even peoplewho might say that they think
Zoe Zaldana is the best part ofthe movie.
Um, and uh, she's done really,uh, really good speeches.
She's carried herself verygracefully amidst all this
controversy, um, and she's beena part of the industry for a
while, you know, in bigblockbuster films, mainstream

(18:33):
films, um, some smaller films.
So the industry is very much,you know, aware of her.
Also, if and when zoe zoezaldana wins this award, she
would be the third, only thethird Latina to win an acting
award period, but certainly also, on top of that, the Best
Supporting Actress award.
Prior to her it was ArianaDeBose and prior to her was Rita

(18:58):
Moreno.
She would also be, you know,she is Dominican and part Puerto
Rican.
You know Ariana DeBose is partpuerto rican, rita moreno is
puerto rican, so there's somekind of you know yeah, trend
there.

Joseph (19:14):
Um, she would be the first one to win.
Who is named maria rightcharacter?
That's the name of thecharacter in west side story, I
think no, not, no no no.

Jules (19:21):
Okay, no, that's the main character.

Joseph (19:23):
I'm sorry, I forgot.

Jules (19:25):
But also, interestingly enough, she would be the first
Latina to win for a movie thatisn't West Side Story.

Joseph (19:32):
Yeah.
But, it's nonetheless a musical.
Yes.

Jules (19:35):
Also, all winners have been musical, have been musicals
, so that's interesting thing,um, but again, I don't see there
being an issue here with regardto the uh sinking ship that is
emilia paris and that bringingdown zoe saldaña.
Um, I think she has this prettymuch in the bag.
To be honest, um, I think, ifanything, emilia paris walks out

(19:58):
with two wins, and the two wins, as we mentioned in our last
episode, are intrinsintrinsically tied together Best
Supporting Actress and the songthat she sings, el Mal.
Right, if there's anybody tothreaten her we've been sort of
talking for a while it would beIsabella Rossellini for Conclave
.
Just recently, clayton Daviskind of sent a little bit of

(20:21):
some shockwaves through Twitter,twitter, film Twitter, when he
predicted that Zoe Saldana wouldlose this award and that
Isabella Rossellini would win.
I certainly don't see itoutside the realm of possibility
because, again, uh, isabellaRossellini is a, you know, an
incredible actress who justrecently got her first Oscar

(20:42):
nomination, which makes no sense, um, and so, you know, an award
given to her would be for hercareer more than it is, I think,
for the part which is prettysmall, um, but I don't see it
outside the realm of possibility.
I could see that happening.
I just think it's very unlikely.
She's certainly the number two,as we have been saying for a
while.
People were on this trainthinking that Ariana Grande was

(21:03):
the number two and we alwaysthought that that was extremely
far-fetched and extremelyunlikely.
We've even seen you know again,if you are to listen to these,
quote unquote you know anonymousOscar ballots that someone like
Monica Barbaro has a fair shareof you know passion behind her,
so we always thought that theAriana Grande thing was not true

(21:24):
.
Right.
And now we know that someonelike Monica Barbaro or, more
importantly, isabel Rosselliniare the only things preventing
Zoe Saldana from winning thisaward, and I'm just not sure
that Isabel Rossellini hasenough, you know, going for her
part to really trump.
You know Zoe S going for herpart to really trump you know

(21:45):
Zoe Zardana at this moment.

Joseph (21:46):
What do you think?
I mean, this is the sameClayton Davis who wrote
essentially that Amelia Perezwas going to sweep every
category four months ago, so youhave to take everything he says
with a grain of salt.
I understand that.
You know some people are reallyadamant or passionate that
Amelia Perez gets completelyshut out of every win.
I do think Isabel Rosselliniwould be the second, but the

(22:08):
idea that she wasn't nominatedfor a sag that she couldn't turn
out a victory in any of thestops.
I think is probably going to bethe most um revealing thing, as,
in terms of her shortcomings, Ithink there's also a little bit
here of you know, david Lynch'srecent passing the immortal
David Lynch, who isextraordinary, you know that has

(22:30):
sort of stoked, the sentimental, you know notion of some
pundits and even some voters towant to cast the vote for her,
because I feel that she's so, Idon't know, entwined with his
legacy.
Yeah, yeah, still reeling fromthat.
Yeah, of course.
No, I mean there's, so I don'tknow entwined with his legacy.

Jules (22:45):
Yeah, yeah, Still reeling from that.

Joseph (22:46):
Yeah, of course no, I mean, there's no recovering from
that.
But, like I said, David Lynchis immortal.
But you know, I think thatthat's where it comes from.
Yeah.
We have to go all the way backto someone like Marcia Gay
Harden.
Right.
When Mar was sort of able towin this category for Pollock in
the year 2000.

Jules (23:06):
Without winning a Golden Globe, without winning or being
nominated for a.

Joseph (23:10):
Golden Globe for a Screen Actors Guild, for a BAFTA
, for a Critics' Choice.
So she's essentially comingfrom anonymity, except for
something like the NationalSociety of Film Critics
mentioned and the New York FilmCritics Circle win a nomination
at the Film Independent SpiritAwards.
But she's essentially comingfrom a very anonymous place and
is sort of able to capitalizeamidst all this chaos.

(23:33):
Right, Because I think JudiDench wins the SAG for Chocolat.

Jules (23:37):
Yeah, Julie Walters wins the BAFTA.
Julie Walters wins the BAFTA,fancy McDormand wins the Critics
.

Joseph (23:42):
a great choice, so between all the chaos, sort of
the real life character andmarsha gay harden are able to
exploit that and come out withthe win, not to mention um, you
know that two of those fourgirls were previous winners judy
dench and fred says, mcdormand.
So between all that, she's sortof able to exploit that
situation.
But that hasn't been the casehere.
You know everyone has beenunanimous on zo, even with, you

(24:05):
know, the train wreck unfoldingbefore their eyes.
They still opted to give herthe award.
So I think that this is Zoe, andI agree.
Second is Isabella Rossellini,but she is again a very far
second.

Jules (24:17):
And I will say that, you know, when Clayton Davis brought
this up, he and some other.
I've heard some more.
You know some other rumblingsthroughout film Twitter that
there's a surprise lurking inthe acting categories.
Um, that it's not, as you know,cut and paste, um, as it seems
right now between the you knowcontenders that have mostly won

(24:38):
all the precursors, thetelevised precursors, and I
think to an extent that is true.
It's just not true forsupporting actors yeah and we're
gonna get to it pretty soonwhere I think that's actually
gonna have more of a, of a rare.

Joseph (24:53):
I think really the lead categories is where you're gonna
find a little bit of a shake-up, exactly status quo exactly,
and we'll get to that in aminute.

Jules (25:02):
all right, so we're both in agreement.
Zoe's aldania is the winner inthis category and our spoiler is
Isabella Rossellini forConclave.
Okay, so now we're going intoour leading categories.
Some interesting thingsbubbling to the surface here.
Right.
And so we're going to startwith Best Actor.

Joseph (25:18):
Great and the nominees for Best Actor were Adrian Brody
in the Brutalist, TimotheeChalamet in A Complete Unknown,
Ray Fiennes for Conclave,Coleman Domingo for Sing Sing,
Sebastian Stan for theApprentice.

Jules (25:33):
Okay.
So let's see.
This seemed like Adrian Brody'sto lose because he was winning
all the televised precursors.
We had talked earlier on how,even if a contender like Ray
Fiennes for Conclave or evenColeman Domingo seemed like
attractive choices that mightend up doing well throughout the

(25:55):
award circuit, that AdrianBrody greatly benefited, we
think, from not just the moviehe's in but more importantly the
performance he gives, which Ithink is just flat out
incredible personally, but thathe, although he's an Oscar
winner for the Pianist, heactually never won for the
Pianist any of these televisedprecursors.

(26:17):
He never won a Critics'.
Choice Award.
He never won a Golden Globe.
He never won a BAFTA Award.
He never won a SAG Award, so ina way way these institutions
recognizing him is the firsttime he's being recognized in
them right, as opposed to theacademy awards and we debated.

Joseph (26:32):
We debated whether, as an oscar voter, you're going to
see him win all those things andhave that push you to put his
name as the winner for the oscar, or whether you're going to
remember that well, he alreadyhe's winning those things.
Because he doesn't have thosethings.
He already has an Oscar for thepianist, so do I really want to
go and repeat his name?

Jules (26:50):
Right, right.
But as award season hascontinued to develop, you know,
it's just become clear thatAdrian Bodie's performance, in
my opinion, is just soincredible that it's easily, in
my opinion, the best of thegroup, the strongest of the
group.
I think it's the strongestperformance by a male actor this
year, by a lead male actor thisyear.

(27:10):
Personally, I think that hasreally also helped in creating
this narrative that he is the,you know, deserving winner
almost in this category, andthat's really helped propel the
momentum in my opinion.
However, you know, things cameto a big, abrupt stop.

(27:31):
Right.
He lost the SAG Award toTimothee Chalamet for playing
Bob Dylan in A Complete.
Unknown.
Yeah, that was a really big deal.
However, as we were said in thelast episode, we should have
seen it coming, because it wasvery unlikely that Adrian Brody
and Demi Moore would win a SAGaward, considering that they
were the film's only nomination.
Complete Unknown was clearlywell-liked by the SAG committee

(27:54):
Really well-liked and by the SAGunion.
It has several nominations.
It ended up winning one, and sothat started to put some doubt
in the air as to can AdrianBrody win his second Oscar when
you have someone like TimotheeChalamet there in a popular
movie which, again a completeunknown has eight nominations,
can Timothee Chalamet sort ofwrestle away this Adrian Brody

(28:16):
win?
I think there are a couple ofthings to consider, as we
mentioned in a previous episode.
Number one is that TimotheeChalamet is very young.
Previous episode.
Number one is that TimotheeChalamet is very young and you
know the actor's branch isnotorious or rather the Academy
as at large is kind of biasedtowards or against young male
actors winning the lead actorOscar and in an interesting turn

(28:40):
of you know fate, or call itserendipity, call it whatever
you want, the youngest actor toever win the Academy Award is
Adrian Brody for the Pianist.

Joseph (28:50):
Playing a real person.

Jules (28:51):
Playing a real life figure.
He was 29 years old andTimothee Chalamet is 29 years
old and if Timothee Chalametwere to win this award, he would
tie Adrian Brody as theyoungest actor to ever win this
award.
He would tie Adrian Brody asthe youngest actor to ever win
this award.

Joseph (29:05):
That's crazy.
He can't make this shit up, man.
He can't make it up, that'sabsolutely crazy.

Jules (29:08):
It's so, you know.
I don't even have the words forthat.

Joseph (29:12):
Numerology.

Jules (29:15):
So that's crazy, but it's the truth, and there's a reason
why Adrian Brody has held ontothat title for such a long time.
Uh-huh.
Because they don't like to dothat typically.
That's as opposed to the bestactress race, which often sees
young women win that awardBenefit at the expense of older
women.

(29:38):
Of older women.
So there's a weird discrepancyhappening in the best actor and
best actress categories in termsof age.
There's some sort of reverseageism happening in the best
actor category.
So that's the first thingthat's going against Timothee
Chalamet for winning forcomplete and own as Bob Dylan.
The thing going for TimotheeChalamet is what we talk about
often, in that when voters aregiving their acting awards,

(29:59):
especially their lead actingawards, they're often using them
as endorsements, their leadacting awards.
They're often using them asendorsements.
And so a win for TimotheeChalamet is really not just a
win for Timothee Chalamet.
More importantly, it's a winfor Bob Dylan, so that in the
history books it reads that youknow, a Bob Dylan biopic won the
lead acting, the lead actor,Oscar.

(30:20):
That's sort of what they're mostattracted to in my opinion,
more than the performance, eventhough Tim though Timothy is
very good in that movie, sothat's the thing that's going
for him.
A win for him is really a winfor Bob Dylan.

Joseph (30:32):
Right, bob Dylan.
I kind of think for a second.
You know going off that youknow well, I mean again playing
Bob Dylan in the rare Bob Dylanauthorized project.
Right.
But also, you know well,someone's going to say Johnny
Cash lost, right.
Joaquin Phoenix lost forplaying Johnny Cash.
He lost to Truman Capote right,he lost to Phil for playing

(30:54):
Truman right, so that is afactor.

Jules (30:57):
Exactly exactly, and I'm also going to say that this is
going to come around when westart talking about best actress
in a minute, in that it's veryodd to go a year, um or as at
least with regards to recentacademy trends, to have in the
quartet of acting oscars to nothave at least one actor be

(31:21):
playing a real life figure yeahit's very odd.
The last time it happened wasrather recently, which was 2022.

Joseph (31:27):
Right, but that's important.
You have to sort of set that up.

Jules (31:29):
Exactly so, where Brendan Fraser won for the Will and we
had three actors from Everything, everywhere, all Out, once
winning.
However, there were only twooptions in that year that could
have, you know, been an actorplaying a real life figure
winning the award.
There were only two optionswhich again is not often where

(31:50):
the Academy only has so fewoptions with regard to actors
playing real life figures.

Joseph (31:54):
You only had a 10% shot of a real life person, had only
a 10% shot of winning.

Jules (31:57):
That year you only had Anna de Armas for playing
Marilyn Monroe in Blonde andAustin Butler for playing Elvis
Presley in Elvis.
I also think there's someinteresting connective tissue
between Austin Butler notwinning for Elvis, considering
that he's such a young man, andTimothee Chalamet possibly not
winning for a complete unknownbecause he's also a young man.

(32:20):
There's this belief, thisunderstanding that there's time.
They know they'll be back youknow they don't have to win
right now.
Why, again, they have that sortof pause for best actor and
they don't have it as much forbest actors?
I'm not sure why, but it'sthere.

Joseph (32:37):
If Chalamet does end up managing that win, though you
have to think that part of theangle that he has is that well,
at least it's his secondnomination and his second
nomination the same category,not like austin, exactly right
but back to our point about areal life figure.

Jules (32:51):
You know, last time it happened was 2022, the year
before.
The last time that happenedbefore 2022 was do you remember?
I believe it was 2016, 2016.
So you know recent trends pointto at the very.
You know they like to when theycan, and it's possible to
include a real life figureamongst the quartet of acting

(33:15):
winners.
You saw it this year happen atthe SAG.
You know where TimotheeChalamet prevailed and that was
the real life figure in thequartet yeah we think that's
going to happen this year again.
We just don't think it's goingto happen for best actor.
We think it's going to happenin another category I mean it'll
be close.
It's going to be close, right,right, right but I do think that

(33:38):
and we'll get to that in aminute but I I do think that
Timothy is in a big disadvantagewith his age and that there's
already kind of been thismomentum for Adrian Brody and
his performance and this film,his performance in this film.
And I also want to say thatsomething that's going against

(33:59):
Adrian Brody in a way and thisis actually a really interesting
point to bring up, I think isthat Adrian Brody, if he were to
win the Oscar for the Brutalist, I believe he would be the
first actor to win two Oscars,especially in the same category,

(34:20):
but he'd be the first actor towin two Oscars without ever once
winning a SAG award.
Yeah, and thatG award yeah.
And that's that's weird.
Yeah, that doesn't happen.
That's never happened.
Yeah.
Now let's give some some leeway.
Okay, the SAGs haven't beenaround for a huge long time.
They've been around since 1995,I believe Right.
And so you know, possibly if wehad you know, if we had you

(34:42):
know, if they had an extendedhistory, we would see that you
know that would happen moreoften.
As it stands right now, it'snever happened.
Right.
So if Adrian Brody wins twoOscars, he will be the first
actor to have two Oscars andzero.
Sag.
Awards.

Joseph (34:57):
Yeah.

Jules (34:58):
And I think that points to a larger problem with Adrian
Brody Brody.
One of the bigger cons for himis that, you know, while he is
an Academy Award winning actorfor the Pianist and he gives,
again, I think, the best leadingmale performance of the year
he's not an actor and he's avery good actor, but his

(35:19):
filmography doesn't have, let'ssay, this long list of titles
that you remember him being inand work that just stands out to
you in such an emphatic way hewas in this and this and this
and this and this.
When you mention Adrian Brodyand you mention his incredible
work in the Pianist and hisincredible work in the Brutalist

(35:42):
, I think that's the performanceof his career.
You know, um, there's like alittle bit of a gap between both
those projects where I don'tthink he's been in enough um
projects that not necessarilythat that they lack quality, but
they haven't had the sort ofmoment.
Yeah.
Um that those two films havehad.
Yeah.
And so I think that's one reasonwhy he's an actor who could

(36:04):
possibly have two Academy Awardswithout ever having a SAG award
.

Joseph (36:13):
Or it might be a reason for why he maybe fails to get
that second Oscar right.
I mean, I think of someone likeHilary Swank who was able to
get two leading actress Oscarsand again, annette Bening has
zero.
But a big part of that, in myopinion, is that, you know, one
is a Best Picture movie forwhich she won a SAG for right,
and the other one is a real-lifecharacter.
I forget whether she won a SAGfor Boys Don't Cry, but the
point being that it is sodifficult to be an actor who

(36:35):
walks into two Oscars withoutsome sort of sign that the
actors' union which, again totheir credit, it's getting so
big that there's maybe lesscrossover now between the
academy and the sag after awardswhatever, um, but it's it's so
rare for that to happen.
You look at someone like seanpenn right in 2003 he lost that
award to johnny depp for piratesright right.

(36:57):
but when he wins for milk hegets that sag win right right.
So it's just tough for me tothink that Adrian Brody is going
to go two for two without everstepping foot on a SAG stage,
and that I also think this mightbe a factor is that, you know,
a complete unknown won bestactor and it was a very popular
film, and the Brutalist was justa tremendously unpopular film

(37:20):
there.
It didn't get any of hisco-stars nominated and it didn't
manage a victory for him.
So if there is significantcrossover between the SAG-AFTRA
organization and the actorsbranch of the Academy, you know
how many of them feel that.
You know, I'm just not thatexcited by the Brutalist, even
if I do like Adrian Brody, evenif I do like his performance.
It's just not a film I'mincredibly excited about,

(37:43):
whereas when I see a completeunknown I'm excited about Marco
Barbaro's turn, I'm excitedabout Edward Norton's turn, I'm
excited about TimotheeChalamet's turn.
So I wonder if that's going tobe a factor too?
Is that that movie maybe justisn't communicating really well
with the American actors?
We talk about how Brady Corbettwas nominated for that
Independent Spirit Award.
Adrian Brody was not nominatedfor the independent spirit award

(38:05):
very strange so there's a lotof red flags for me in terms of
whether adrian brody can sort ofconquer that mountain and be
the first individual to win twooscars, let alone two lead actor
oscars, without ever steppingfoot on a sag stage for a
victory.

Jules (38:23):
It's certainly something that makes you pause and and
think and again.
None of this is in regard toAdrian Brody's talent as an
actor.
He's an incredible actor andhe's given two incredible
performances performances inthose two films.
Yeah.
But I just think you know, ifyou had to, you know um label
films off the top of your headthat Adrian Brody has been in.
You're not going to come up withthat many sort of momentous

(38:44):
roles, moments in film Right,even though he's a very
decorated actor too.
He's won, he's been nominatedfor Emmys as well, and so I
think that's a con that's goingagainst Adrian Brody.
But again, the performance isjust so raw and powerful really

(39:07):
that I don't think I think itfar eclipses the nominees in
this category and I just don'tthink that if I were to come up
with a contender to threatenthat sort of you know the
compelling sort of stature ofthis performance, that I would
think that that would beTimothee Chalamet for Complete
Unknown.
You know, I'm just not surethat Timothee has enough.

(39:30):
You know, I guess theperformance has enough power, I
think, to eclipse the powerthat's in the Adrian Brody
performance for the Brutalistand again I think it's a big
deal his age.
I think that matters, yeah, andI'm giving a lot of credit to
the possibility that, even ifthis Adrian Brody double Oscars,

(39:51):
never being a SAG winner wouldmaybe be different if again the
SAG had a bigger history.
It just doesn't at this moment.

Joseph (40:00):
I mean, I think SAG voters knew I think part of them
knew at least that you knowAdrian Brody is an Oscar winner
and certainly he's, you know, inthe hunt for this second Oscar
or the Oscar this year, and Ithink they made a conscious
choice to not give it to him andinstead to give it to Timothee
Chalamet.
I will say this TimotheeChalamet has more SAG

(40:20):
nominations than Academy Awardnominations.
Chalamet has more SAGnominations than Academy Award
nominations, right, but as yousaid, with Adrian Brody, who was
the youngest winner and againhe largely exploited the
situation, right between whatwas a hair-length race between
Jack Nicholson and About Schmidtand.
Daniel Day-Lewis.
You know, if those two guysweren't completely eating at

(40:42):
each other's votes, does AdrianBrody come out of nowhere and
win that award?
Right you know, um and there'srumors that again that jack
nicholson was helping you knowsort of campaign for adrian
brody and sort of you know whatpointed out what a, what a
fantastic performance he thoughtit was and you know, maybe that
helped him win that award andhe gets up on that stage and he
has what is still today a veryiconic moment at the Oscars.

(41:05):
I don't know if you frown uponit or if it's very memorable to
you.
Nonetheless, it's etched inhistory.
Do you want to have that again?
Maybe you really want to havethat again, maybe you don't want
to have that again.

Jules (41:16):
I also think that it's worth noting that, as we
mentioned in an earlier episode,I wonder if some voters are
going to feel a little bit orthey're going to have some
hesitation with the fact thatAdrian Brody is playing a
Holocaust survivor in both ofthose films, both of his winning
performances, the Pianist andthe Brutalist Could that be

(41:37):
something that makes them pauseand think?
maybe not just yet a secondOscar?
I don't know, but I think Idon't know if I, if his biggest
competition is Timothee Chalamet, who again is very good in A
Complete Unknown as well.
I just don't know that.
I think that's enough to beAdrian Brody in this performance
.

Joseph (41:54):
There was, for a brief moment, a bit of controversy as
to whether Adrian Brody andFelicity Jones got some AI
assistance in terms of theiraccents, whatever.

Jules (42:05):
I wonder if that could come into play.

Joseph (42:07):
I don't know, I'm not sure I have no idea, but I
certainly know that people aregoing to investigate and find
out that Timothee Chalamet didhis own singing Right, and I
think they're going to belargely appreciative of putting
himself out there.
I honestly think that if thevote was occurring after his
sack speech, that he would lose,because I don't think the
speech was was very good.

(42:27):
I don't think there was aspeech to win over votes, um,
but it didn't occur.
You know the voting was done bythen.
So there was something in theether and we talked about it
sort of how.
You know this was a do or diefor james mangled.
If james mangled doesn't get aniron for best director this
year, I don't think he'll everwill.
And he did get nominated rightand this was a film that was
really well rewarded at theAcademy Awards.

(42:49):
You know there's maybe one ortwo things that it should have
gotten.
Maybe it should have gotten thenomination for film editing.
You know it would have beennice to see it steal a
nomination in production design,but it's overall a really
well-liked film and reallywell-liked film, and so I wonder
if James Mangold, you know he'sbeen able to get Angelo.
Jolie the supporting actressOscar Reese Witherspoon the lead

(43:10):
, oscar, you know.
I do wonder if there isn't some, you know, James Mangold sort
of magic here.
When James Mangold gets anactor and they get nominated and
they're playing someone real,you know, a lot of really good
chemistry happens and I dowonder if that, if that'll be a
factor.

Jules (43:24):
You know it's, I'll say this.
You know this best actorcategory.
I feel pretty good about AdrianBrody winning this.
I think he deserves to win, butyou know it's, I can't say.
I'm as confident as I'd like tobe.
Right.
And so certainly, my pick isAdrian Brody for the Boudalas,
and my spoiler is obviouslyTimothy Chalamet for a complete

(43:45):
unknown.
But you know, if it happens andAdrian Brody loses and Timothy
Chalamet wins, will it besurprising?
Yes, but but look to thesereasons as being a reason why he
doesn't win.
Yeah, um, this is a close one.
This is going to be anotherclose one, and I wonder if it's
going to be closer than peoplethink.

Joseph (44:09):
I would actually go with the reverse if it was me.
I would say that right now themomentum is with the Timothee
Chalamet win.
I would rather TimotheeChalamet replace Adrian Brody as
the youngest actor to win leadactor on his second nomination
than to have Adrian Brody wintwice without that sag.

Jules (44:29):
Wow, that's so surprising .
I mean, it could certainlyhappen, folks.
It can certainly happen.
And you know, I think maybethat's going to be a moment
where people are not expectingto be surprised and end up being
surprised.
You know, it's possible, but Isee your reasoning and I
understand it All right, sowe're the opposite then.

Joseph (44:52):
I mean, listen, I think it's going to be so tight.
As I think about it now, Ithink you know well, doesn't
it's?
It's certainly the kind ofperformance and the kind of
movie that would garner, youknow, that second nomination.
But then why didn't?
You win you mean, I'm sorrythat second win, so why?
Why didn't he win the sag?
That's all I go back to because, because at the sag nobody saw.

Jules (45:12):
At the SAG.
I really believe you had twounpopular films win the lead
actor and the lead actress SAGaward.
You had the Substance, whichcould have gone on for Margaret
Qualley, and it didn't.
You had the Brutalist, whichcould have gone on for Guy
Pearce and Felicity Jones, andit didn't.
And so the thing that's winningout here isn't Timothee

(45:33):
Chalamet per se, but it's theDemi Moore Hollywood narrative
that is, you know, tooirresistible to Zag voters.
Whether you like the movie ornot, you know that they were
more in favor of the Demi Moorenarrative, continuing that
Hollywood sort of Cinderellanarrative, than they were in
giving Adrian Brody Again.

(45:54):
We don't really love the filmthat much.
He doesn't have to win.
Let's give it to TimotheeChalamet.
He's playing Bob Dylan, wereally like that movie, and so I
think you're looking at it thewrong way.
I don't think it's.
Why did he lose to TimotheeChalamet?
It's more like the SAG votershad to choose which of the lead
uh actors actress or actor arethey going to give to a film

(46:15):
that was clearly not as popularamongst the entire group?

Joseph (46:19):
right.
But then I always go back and Idebate whether is.
Is the brutalist that much morepopular than a complete unknown
?
Eight to ten nominations it wasjust missing cinematography and
production design, again twoawards that it got nominated for
at the at its guild, completeunknown.
So is the brutalist really thatmuch more of a popular film
than the bob dylan film?

Jules (46:40):
oh well, I'm talking popularity among the sag voters,
right, but I'm saying at theacademy do you think the?
brutalist is a more popular filmthan a complete unknown I think
by virtue of the fact that thebrutalist stands to win more
oscars.
I think by virtue of the factthat the Brutalist stands to win
more Oscars than A CompleteUnknown, I think goes to the
point that it's a more you know,at least you know a significant

(47:03):
group of voters consider it,more, you know, oscar worthy.
You know the fact that theBrutalist stands a good chance
to win scores, stands a goodchance to win screenplay.
I mean I apologizecinematography.
Maybe there's a world where itsurprises and wins productions.
Who knows Gets that editingnomination.
It really should not havegotten that editing nomination.
To be honest, they missed AceEddie.

(47:26):
Films of that sort of lengthdon't do well with editing noms
at the Oscars, and so all thosethings point to that film being
at least perceived like a biggerawards magnet, I think than a
complete unknown, which I thinka complete unknown overperformed
people's expectations when itgot eight nominations, we were
seeing the kind of you know umuh pool that movie was having,

(47:50):
that people were liking andpeople were watching it, people
were enjoying it.
You know um, you know, a filmfilled with Bob Dylan music,
joan Baez music, you know um,those beautiful uh performances,
musical performances.
You know you're going to get anolder base of the Academy
that's going to like that,possibly a younger base that's
also going to like it.
So it has broad appeal, but I'mnot sure that you can argue,

(48:13):
considering what the Brutalistcan win, how many Oscars it can
win and also the nominationsthat it was able to snag, that
it's not perceived as the biggerOscar movie.

Joseph (48:26):
Yeah, I could see that.
But listen, I really think thisrace is a hair Right.
It's really a hair All right.

Jules (48:36):
So you're gonna stay with the opposite, then I'm gonna
stay with the opposite for thenext five minutes and then ask
me five minutes from now andI'll switch.
Okay, so brutalist winneradrian brody.

Joseph (48:41):
Spoiler um timothy chalamet, complete unknown and
you're the opposite, I'm goingthe opposite, I'm going.
Timothy chalamet, the frontrunner.

Jules (48:48):
Adrian brody, the spoiler perfect okay, and now let's
move on to a category that Ithink a lot of people are
anticipating very much.
So you know, it's kind of anerve-wracking category for I
think most of us sort of Oscaraddicts and that's Best Actress.

Joseph (49:04):
Right and again had a fantastic actress year.
All the contenders, very goodset of nominees, but the final
five were Mikeyy madison foronora, cynthia rivo for wicked,
carla sofia gascon for ameliaperez, making history, demi
moore for the substance andfernando torres for I'm still

(49:26):
here and so this race has reallykind of dwindled to a
three-person race.

Jules (49:33):
Yep, you have Demi Moore, who has become the favorite, or
is the favorite, after winningthe Golden Globe Critics' Choice
and the SAG.
You and I called that sort ofyou know momentum before it
happened.
Right, we're pretty happy aboutthat.
Yeah, we don't know if anyonewas listening to us when we said
it, but we're pretty happyabout that.
Yeah, we don't know if anyonewas listening to us when we said

(49:54):
it, but we were pretty happyabout that.
Yeah, and so we called you knowher kind of having this amazing
run right after her winning theGolden Globe.
And then Mikey Madison putthings you know a little bit
made things confusing when shewon the BAFTA for Best.

Joseph (50:11):
Actress.
She put a dent in things.

Jules (50:13):
Exactly, which was really alarming, and we went over that
last episode.
We'll touch upon it here.
And then you have FernandaTorres, who is a, you know, very
surprised contender, becauseshe won the drama Golden Globe
which we called Exactly which wecalled and she didn't get
nominated for anything else butshe landed a best actress
nomination.
Some people were not expectingthat.

(50:34):
You and I were absolutelyexpecting that and her film made
it into Best Picture.

Joseph (50:43):
Yeah, she did not just get that Best Actress nomination
, but her foreign language filmmade it into the top 10 for Best
Picture.

Jules (50:51):
And so it's really a race between those three actresses.

Joseph (50:55):
We kind of called it as a race between those two globe
winners as soon as the GoldenGlobes happened.
Yes, right, we kind of saidthat with those two victories,
you're putting those two on apath to go head to head, and
they actually have not gone headto head yet which is going to
be part of the interesting thing.

Jules (51:13):
Exactly, and so you know, we you know.
Just to recap very quickly youknow, when Mikey Madison won the
BAFTA, that certainly issomething that you and I took as
a sign that Demi Moore is not astronger contender to win this
award, as people think, becausethere was no reason for her to

(51:34):
lose that award she couldn't winover the british, the british
block, she couldn't do itexactly.
British co-production exactly,and so that is already spelling
trouble.
Will she be able to win enoughof a contingent of the foreign
base um to uh win this award?
yeah so we know certainly thatshe has most of hollywood right

(51:55):
rooting for her um, and againit's been such a beautiful thing
to see.
You know, I'm gonna be so happyfor her if she does win um, I
think it's well-deserved flowers, I'm gonna be so ecstatic for
her.
So it looks like she has thehollywood the ho sewn up.
And yet, you know, as we keepreading about these anonymous

(52:16):
Oscar ballots and again you knowyou have to take that with a
grain of salt, but still it's,it's something to ponder you
keep hearing about people whoare seeing the movie and are not
liking the movie, are disgustedby it, are repulsed by it, or
they just don't like it.
And it makes sense.
This is not your typical kindof you know, your prototypical

(52:36):
oscar-winning film, andcertainly not something that
wins awards for best acting, forbest, for best performance yeah
um.
Add to that that this is a verykind of particular performance.
There's not a lot of dialoguein the movie.
There isn't this sort of oscarcaliber scene that you know,
this super scene, chewy, Oscar-yscene that they're going to

(52:56):
play and it's just going to be.
It's going to read like theirprototypical Oscar-y clips,
Right?
You know a lot of peoplementioned that scene.
In front of the mirror, youknow, when she's getting ready
for the date, that's not thekind of scene they like to play,
you know, for before nomineesare announced, but before the
winner's announced.
It like to play, you know, forbefore nominees are announced,

(53:19):
but before the winner'sannounced.
Just not your prototypical kindof Oscar package period.
And so people are going to watchthat movie and some people are
not going to like it.
And so you're really betting onnumber one, the strength of
this Hollywood contingent thatis going to want to see Demi
Moore up, up, up there on thatstage giving a beautiful speech,
as she's been giving time andtime again, and that you know
people who dislike the moviewill still want to vote for Demi

(53:41):
Moore because you know her longcareer, Right, and because they
want this moment for her.
It's into question thathappening?
Besides the mikey madison win,besides that, this is now your
prototypical kind ofoscar-winning uh film for for
acting, for performances.
Um is, will a voter, willenough voters who see the movie

(54:06):
and don't like it still say well, you know what?
I'll vote for a movie that Idon't like.
Yeah.
You know that matters when theycould easily put their vote
towards a performance in a moviethat they do like.
They could see Onora.
They could like Onora.
They could vote for MikeyMadison.
Yeah, they can see FernandaTorres.
They can like her film.
I'm Still here and vote forFernanda Torres.

(54:29):
There are other options.
For Netta Torres, there areother options.
How likely is it that a bigenough group of voters will see
the substance, dislike it andstill say I'm going to vote for
Demi Moore?
I don't doubt that there is agroup of people who are going to
do that, but are enough peoplegoing?

Joseph (54:46):
to do it.
Is it significant enough?

Jules (54:47):
That's the big issue.
Another thing to consider is,as we mentioned, with Timothee
Chalamet in the last segment.
You know the Oscar voters aregoing to want to when they can
award a film that's about a reallife figure.
Yeah.
So there is the option ofTimothee Chalamet.
In A Complete Unknown, he justwon the SAG.

(55:08):
You know when they can do that.
The Oscar voters will try to dothat.
If you look at the history, ifyou look at the recent Oscar
trends, you know it's prettydamning evidence when you see
just how often at least oneactor playing a real life figure
wins an Academy Award for aperformance.

(55:29):
We went through it and let'ssee in 2022,.
As we mentioned earlier, allthe acting winners were
fictional characters.
Again, they had very fewoptions.

Joseph (55:41):
Only 10%, only two out of the 20.

Jules (55:44):
Before 2022, it was 2016.
Yeah.
Where they had all four actingwinners, none of which were
actors playing real life figuresand before 2016,.
It was 1997.
Yeah.
When it was Robin Williams,helen Hunt, jack Nicholson and
Kim Basinger, kim Basinger, 1997.

Joseph (56:08):
That's all fictional.

Jules (56:10):
They were all fictional and again, that's three years
that we pointed out yeah, um2022, 2016 and 1997 yeah so it
is a very uh, pervasive,prevalent fact that, as of late,
the most recent trends, whenthey can they will try to award

(56:32):
an actor playing a real lifefigure and yes, that points to
possibly being Timothee Chalamet.
But even then, when youconsider it, you're kind of in a
quagmire with both lead actingcategories because the favorites
are not real life figures,right, and if it prevails that
Zoe Zaldana and Kieran Culkinare favorites and they're not

(56:54):
going to be trumped by real lifefigures actors playing real
life figures then it falls onthe lead acting categories,
unless we're going to have ayear of all fictional characters
, which seems unlikely, giventhat SAG even found a way to
award a real life figure in.
Timothee Chalamet's Bob Dylan.

Joseph (57:09):
Not just that, but I think the Academy went out of
their way to nominate a lot ofreal life characters this year.
They didn't have to nominateeither actor from the apprentice
.
They didn't have to nominatethe character of joan bias.
They didn't have to nominatethe actress from I'm still.
Here was a really competitiveyear for best actress.
They could have, you know,overlooked her, like they did
another, a bunch of otherfantastic performances, but in

(57:30):
almost every category theydecided, decided.
I want someone real, I wantsomeone real, I want someone
real.

Jules (57:34):
And similarly for the BAFTA, which has a lot of
overlap with the Academy since2000, there's only been two
years where all the BAFTAwinners were fictional.
Yeah.
And that's 2008 and 2003,because Charlize Theron for
Aileen warner's was pushed tothe next year, right exactly um,

(57:57):
and that's also pretty damningyeah you know so the chances of
there being all fictional, anall fictional quartet of actors,
I mean it's possible yeah, Ijust find it this year to be
unlikely yeah, I mean, the sagdidn't even sort of prophesize
that, like they did in 2022.
Right.
So where is it going to fall?
Is it going to be TimotheeChalamet or is it going to be

(58:18):
someone?

Joseph (58:18):
in lead actors, or I mean some could argue it could
be both.
That's a possibility, rightexactly.

Jules (58:23):
It could be more than one , certainly in Fernanda Torres's
favor.
She's playing a real lifefigure.
Her performance and that filmis strong enough that it
mustered a Best Picturenomination.
It had no business gettingknown as the Best Picture, and
it did it really had no littlebreadcrumbs to get that

(58:43):
nomination Exactly.
In a way, it kind of reminds mea little bit of ironically
enough, since we're talkingabout Demi Moore and this sort
of, you know, momentous campaignand awards trajectory she's had
.
It kind of reminds me of SandraBullock in a way, because
Sandra Bullock was herperformance was so popular,

(59:04):
right, that it managed a BestPicture nomination, right.
It's not too unlike what'shappening here with Fernanda
Torres.
Oh, that's interesting.
Yeah, fernanda Torres waspeople.
The the Fernando Torres win atthe Golden Globes got voters to
see the movie.

Joseph (59:17):
Put eyeballs on the film .

Jules (59:19):
And that was enough to get the film nominated for best
picture.

Joseph (59:23):
Yeah, not just actress, but best picture.

Jules (59:25):
And that's a huge deal that I think not enough people
are paying attention.
Yeah.
Mainly because they'refollowing the statistic that no
lead actor has won an Oscarwithout getting nominated for
the SAG.
Yeah.
Okay, so that's true.
So that would be the first time.
Okay, but again, the SAGdoesn't have a super extensive
history.
Yeah, and things are becoming,in this sort of awards Oscar

(59:46):
sphere, weirder and weirder andweirder.

Joseph (59:48):
I mean Adrian Rodi would be the first actor to win best
actor without a SAG ever.
So I mean Adrian Rodi would bethe first actor to win best
actor without a SAG ever.
So I mean history is going tohave to snap somewhere, exactly.

Jules (59:57):
And Coda won best picture without having any of the other
.

Joseph (01:00:00):
Right, exactly, no director, no editing.

Jules (01:00:03):
Exactly so.
The stats are meant to bebroken, right, even we know that
, even though we rely a lot onthem.
Yeah, so that's not enough of areason to think that Fernanda
Torres can't happen.
I think she's a huge threat inthis category.
She's playing a real lifefigure, no-transcript.

(01:00:35):
This real life story of thisincredible woman who persevered
against this.
You know tragic loss and thistragic occurrence.
There's so much you know DNAbetween what was happening then
during the dictatorship inBrazil and what's going on in
the alt-right movementEverywhere globally.
Exactly exactly.

Speaker 3 (01:00:54):
And so there's such political charge, the alt-right
movement Everywhere globally,Exactly exactly.

Jules (01:00:55):
And so there's such political charge and relevance
to this movie that I thinkvoters are going to be more than
glad to sort of spotlight andgive their vote and their weight
.
To Add to that that, again, herbiggest competition is a movie
that stands to be disliked by alarge group of people who watch
it right.

Joseph (01:01:15):
So even some highbrow people are not going to enjoy
the film.
Case in point demi moore.
You know she didn't win one,she didn't place at the national
side of film critics, I believeno she did.

Jules (01:01:24):
She was able to muster some support at the la film
critics but you know she wasn'tnecessarily the runaway critical
favorite also, she didn't winand you would think that would
be more likely that she didn'twin the actress award at Cannes,
right, you know?
And that was an award that youknow could have happened to the
Substance.
The.
Substance still won somethingbut didn't win actress Right,

(01:01:45):
and I think part of that has todo with the kind of performance
it is the nature of it.
The kind of, the nature of theperformance, the nature of the
movie you know, and that itstands to be a movie that you
know at least a good number ofpeople, of voters, are going to
see and they're going to be putoff by Right Again.
Is it enough to wager thatenough of those voters decided?

(01:02:06):
You know, I don't like themovie, or maybe I hate the movie
, but I'm still going to votefor Demi Moore.
I don't know.

Joseph (01:02:17):
I'm just not sure about it.
Well, her speeches have done areally good job of giving her an
edge, you know, I think thatshe gets up there and she shares
wisdom and sincerity and graceand and grace, and you're happy
to see her up there.
As you said, even if you're, asyou said, divisive on the movie
, she's someone that you lookforward to the speech she's
going to give.
Now I will say that the bernandatorres is going to give one
hell of a speech too, if shewins she gave a hell of a speech
of the golden globes, um, andshe has a lot of again, a lot of

(01:02:40):
sincerity, a lot of humilitywhen she speaks, um.
But you know, I think one thingthat may be going for the
substance, that maybe gives itthe edge, that angle is, again,
it's sort of reflexive of theindustry and so maybe actors are
really going to empathize withthat.
Uh, maybe, maybe specificallyfemale actors, that's a
possibility.
But I think we have to talkabout, you know, the genre

(01:03:02):
hurdle right, because that'sthat's massive, that's massive
right, so I mean lastperformance to win for a genre
piece.
I I mean, are we saying thatthat's Natalie Portman in Black
Swan?
Yeah.
The last actress to win BestActress and she swept.

Jules (01:03:18):
She won the BAFTA she didn't lose that BAFTA.
And only that.
I believe that year Black Swanwas the most nominated film at
the BAFTAs.
Oh wow, that's very interesting.
I remember that, yeah.

Joseph (01:03:28):
Right and it only got five Oscar nominations right.
It only got five Oscarnominations.
Managed only one win forNatalie who swept it was
Natalie's second nod, this isDemi Moore's first, and so these
are the kinds of things thatare important if you're going to
overcome that hurdle is thatit's not Natalie's first
nomination, it's her secondnomination and her first lead is

(01:03:49):
that she did sweep.
And also, I would argue, are wesaying that the Substance is
going to be nominated for, Ithink, five Oscars?
It is nominated for five and wintwo, where Black Swan was
nominated for five and only wonone.
Yeah, are we really saying thatthe Substance has enough
strength to win two awards?

Jules (01:04:06):
Yeah, the Substance broke so much ground, so much terrain
by even being nominated forBest Picture.
Considering the kind of movieit is, it feels almost, you know
, unrealistic to think that it'sgoing to not just manage that
kind of feat but also be thekind of body horror you know,
horror genre film that also winsmore than one Academy Award.

Joseph (01:04:28):
Yeah, to go the distance Exactly.
I mean, yeah, I was going tosay I just think that you know
the genre bias, I think, isgoing to be significant and we
saw it play out at BAFTA.
Now maybe it'll be different atthe Oscars.
It's a different voting body.
You know there's otherinfluences out there, but we
don't know, we don't.

Jules (01:04:47):
Right, and I also want to point out something really
important.
Let's look at you and I don'treally take the critics choice
with you know, super, a bigamount of weight yeah but we do
the golden globe, especially thesag and the bafta yeah let's
look at, from 2000 to currentday, um how often either of
those awards bodies had thecorrect actress winner right and

(01:05:12):
winners Right If we look at theSAG since 2000, the SAG has
gotten seven actresses wrong.
Those were Renee Zellweger whenshe won for Chicago in 2002,
julie Christie for Away From Her, meryl Streep for Doubt, viola
Davis for the Help, glenn Closefor the Wife, viola Davis from

(01:05:35):
Mara, annie's Black Bottom and,just last year, lily Gladstone
for Killers of the Flower Moon.
So since 2000, they got sevenactresses wrong.
It's not bad for 24 years, notbad BAFTA.
The BAFTA since 2000 has gottenagain seven wrong Judy Dench

(01:05:56):
for Iris, scott Johansson forLost in Translation, emil de
Staunton for Vera Drake, carrieMulligan for An Education,
emmanuel Riva for Amour, joannaScanlon for Afterlife and Cate
Blanchett for Tar.
Now let's look at the GoldenGlobe, which we found most
fascinating?

(01:06:16):
yeah, since 2000, because again,the golden globe benefits from
the fact that they have a dramaand a musical comedy.

Joseph (01:06:22):
There's a little bit of a lean there, a little bit of a
curve.

Jules (01:06:24):
So, with that in mind, that you know they kind of have,
you know, more options to getthem right, since 2000 they have
only missed actress three times.
Right, the actress winner atthe academy award was in the
golden globe, was amongst thedrama comedy actress.
Uh choices right, um, exceptfor three years, and that is one

(01:06:51):
of them, is the pandemic year2020.
Right when, uh, andrew day.

Joseph (01:06:55):
Andrew day won and uh, rosamund, rosamund, pike won
yeah, and rosamund pike didn'tget nominated, but andrew day
exactly I think she was prettycompetitive, right too and then
the following year 2021 oh man,that was just chaos.
Yeah, when nicole kidman wonfor being the ricardos right.

Jules (01:07:09):
Michael zegler won for west side story.
She didn't get nominated, onlynicole kim and nicole, yeah, and
then the only.
It's just chaos.
Yeah, when Nicole Kidman wonfor being the Ricardos Right and
Rachel Zegler won for West SideStory Right, she didn't get
nominated.

Joseph (01:07:15):
Only Nicole Kidman did yeah.

Jules (01:07:16):
And then the only other year since 2000 was 2001.
When Sissy Spacek won for Inthe Bedroom.

Joseph (01:07:23):
Oh, yeah, and.
Nicole Kidman won for MoulinRouge Right and Halle.

Jules (01:07:25):
Berry, you know.

Joseph (01:07:28):
And Oscar and she won the second.

Jules (01:07:30):
So the point is, of those three awards bodies, the Golden
Globe actually has stood betterwith regard to picking the
right best actress winner orhaving the best actress winner
be included among amongst theirbest actress choices.
Right, and so you know, we'reon a little bit of a trend the

(01:07:51):
last few years where the actressin the comedy or musical
category has ended up winning.
We just had Emma Stone for PoorThings.
And the year before that we hadMichelle Yeoh for Everything
Every While At Once, you know,but typically actually, if you
look at their history, you know,over the last since 2000,.
Minus those three years, thatthey have gotten incorrect.

(01:08:13):
You know 14 of their winnersthat went on to win the Academy
Award for Best Actress 14 camefrom the drama actress category
and seven came from the comedyor musical category.
Yeah, and that's that's.
That's almost more than half.
Right or half.
Right, and so 14 come from drama, seven came from comedy or

(01:08:36):
musical.
This year we've got FernandaTorres in drama and Demi Moore
in comedy or musical.
Yeah.
So I think those stats alsobode pretty well for Fernanda
Torres.
Right.
You know, technically, if youconsider these stats, you know,
being part of the Golden Globepair of winners is maybe

(01:08:58):
slightly better than being a SAGwinner and a BAFTA winner and,
like you mentioned earlier, thishasn't been put to the test yet
so that people can startpredicting that it's definitely
going to be Demi Moore, or it'sdefinitely going to be Mikey
Madison, because Fernanda Torreswas not nominated for the BAFTA
, and she was not nominated forthe SAG.
So we don't know what would havehappened in those races had she

(01:09:19):
been.
And then we're going to seewhat happens on Sunday when
Fernanda Torres faces these twovery formidable competitors For
the first time.
For the first time, but rightnow as it stands, fernanda
Torres' Golden Globe win to melooks a little bit more
attractive than a Demi Moore SAGwin in a film that again stands

(01:09:40):
to, you know, repel a certainamount of people and votes and
Mikey Madison with her BAFTA win.

Joseph (01:09:49):
Yeah, I mean, and like we said, I mean that Golden
Globe win for Fernanda wasenough to get a Best Picture
nomination right when there wasalready a foreign film among the
10.
You know, I think I've alsobrought up that comparison of
you know the horror genre, foryou know, natalie Portman
against Demi Moore, the secondnomination for Natalie Portman.

(01:10:10):
I think I also want to bring upthis idea because you've
brought up, and a lot of peoplehave brought up, the idea of a
hollywood vote.
But are we really saying thatthe academy that has yet to give
it to glenn close right whenglenn close was up for the wife,
right?
and she was gonna have thatmoment on the stage.
Finally and she loses out toolivia coleman in the favorite

(01:10:34):
are we really saying that theacademy is ready and willing and
able to put demi more up therebefore glenn close?
Right, you know, I think that'ssomething that's going to occur
to people's mind in the sensethat perhaps the nomination for
demi more is enough.
That is the win.
Right, you know, it's notnecessarily a nomination she's
been trying for, you know, therole happened, the, the project

(01:10:56):
happened and they're more thanhappy to celebrate her.
And again, she has had projectsthat were nominated the academy
awards and that certainlyhelped her get this particular
individual nomination.
She was in ghost, she was in afew good men, but are they
really going to go, you know,across that bridge all the way
and actually give it to her?
We talk about brendan frazierbeing able to muster that

(01:11:16):
victory, right, but I just I'mnot sure that I see the
competitors against demi more atthis at the same level as the
competitors against brendanfrazier, and to that point, I
think the other really goodcomparison here is as far as
fernanda torres goes, I thinkthat there is sentiment within
the academy that knows that hermother was up for this award in

(01:11:39):
1998 and failed to win it.
Right, and that um the movie,uh, central station was up for
foreign film and failed to winit.
And so I do think that there isa little bit of, as you said,
sort of this poetry going on asto whether she can sort of win
this award, not just for her butfor her country and for her
mother right, as well as forWalter Saez.

(01:12:00):
You know and I think that thatmay be on top of all the other
things you're saying the littlebit of an edge that she needs to
come up with the win.

Jules (01:12:09):
Right, I will say that if Fernanda Torres wasn't in the
picture, yeah.
And it was just Demi Moore with, you know.
Let's say she's replaced withsomeone like I don't know, kay
Winslet, and Lee.
Then I would see and we're goingto talk about Mikey Madison,
who's a very formidablecontender in her own right We'll

(01:12:30):
get to that in a minute, but itwould you know I could
certainly see a scenario like wekeep coming back to this
contender 2009, sandra Bullock,where Sandra Bullock was facing
Meryl Streep for Julia and Julia, who already had an Oscar, and
the young girls.
And Helen Mirren for the LastStation, who already had an
Oscar, and two young breakoutstars.

(01:12:50):
Yeah, you know, I could see ascenario where, uh, demi Moore,
even with a film that you knowstands to be liked by half of
the Academy or less than half,um, and disliked by the other
half, could still win outbecause of this really powerful,
you know, narrative over youknow Mikey Madison, who's very
new to the scene for a lot ofvoters.

(01:13:11):
Uh, carla Sofia Gascon, samething, um.
Uh, cynthia Erivo, um, forWicked Fantasy is not really
their thing to you know give,you know um, the the acting wins
to.
And uh, kate Winslet for Lee,who already has an Oscar.
I could see a scenario whereokay, you know in in this field,

(01:13:31):
this similar sort of sandra boykind of thing can happen, where
um she ends up winning, even ifshe has this polarizing film
okay, I can see that yeah theproblem is that fernanda torres
is in the picture, yeah, andthere you have a contender who's
never won, who's playing a reallife figure and we already went
over how important that is andhas this very political chart,
political relevance to her movie, to what it means to the

(01:13:53):
brazilian people.
When you put all that intocontext, it's a tough battle.
It's a tough battle betweendemi more and fernanda torres it
is and is the powerful?
to me, more narrative in thesubstance going to be enough to
overcome all of that?
I just don't know it's a lot.

Joseph (01:14:11):
It's a lot to overcome.
I mean, I think another thingthat she has that you we've
talked about some detriments toher campaign, but maybe an angle
that she can sort of work hereis that typically the Academy
they do like their you knowperformances that are sort of
drenched in makeup and albeitthe substance, I think, to its
virtue does it on its own terms.

(01:14:32):
You know it's not the whale, butit is a very, you know, a
performance that relies heavilyon prosthetics at times, and
that's something that theytypically like to do.
Now.
It doesn't always happen.
You look at something like 2020, right, when you had Judas and
the Black Messiah and no manLand, the Father Minari None of

(01:14:59):
those performances had you, youknow, a lot of makeup, but a
substantial amount of the timeyou have a movie that is a
makeup nominee or possibly amakeup winner.
Come out and win one of theperformance oscars.
That may be just a little bitof a of an edge.

Jules (01:15:04):
Yeah, I think that.
I think that that's a goodfactor maybe helps the substance
cross that line.

Joseph (01:15:08):
Like I said, I think this is going to be, you know, a
war of tiny little bit of space, an incremental war here
between these two or threepeople, right, right and so the
other contender that we haven'ttalked about is mikey madison,
who you know personally, for me,is my favorite of the category.

Jules (01:15:24):
I would be very happy to see her performance celebrated
she won that surprise BAFTA winbut I, just because of how new
she is to the scene, I'm justnot sure that she can sort of
muster enough passion.
Again, I certainly think it's aperformance that's strong
enough it's one of my favoriteperformances of the year.

(01:15:46):
That's strong enough to pull apassionate vote amongst voters.
But when we're talking aboutthis Demi Moore, this powerful
Hollywood narrative, and thisFernanda Torres, you know, um,
what the win would mean.
You know uh.
So in one case to me more, whatthe win would mean for her
career, you know sort of very,um, admirable long.

(01:16:09):
You know uh career that she'shad.
And Fernanda Torres, um this,you know uh career that she's
had.
And for Netta Torres, um this,you know, important film, and
what it would mean for theBrazilian people.
Um, I'm just not sure thatMikey Madison being in possibly
the best picture favorite isenough to sort of kind of
eclipse those two other.
You know uh narratives going on.
No, I agree, um, even narrativesgoing on?

(01:16:34):
No, I agree, even though Icertainly see people's point,
because people are consideringMikey Madison as the biggest
alternative.

Joseph (01:16:39):
After the BAFTA, yeah, after the.

Jules (01:16:40):
BAFTA win to Demi Moore.
I certainly see it, especiallyas Anora, like we've mentioned,
is a favorite for Best Pictureand many other awards and she's
so at the center of that movieand it's such a beautiful
performance, such an incredibleperformance.
I agree, but I don't know, I'mjust not sure that's enough.

(01:17:01):
When we talk about these actingcategories, narrative almost
feels like it's everything in away.
You know, and is that MikeyMadison narrative you know being
?
You know this breakout star inthis, you know breakout Sean
Baker film.
Right.
Is that enough to eclipse theseother two?
You know running horses thatare running alongside her in

(01:17:22):
their narratives, right?

Joseph (01:17:23):
Well, I mean to her advantage.
We've talked about the genderbias here and you know the Oscar
voters love themselves a youngactress for best actress, they
do like that.
Oscar voters love themselves ayoung actress for best actress,
they do like that.
I'm not sure Mikey has had verymany opportunities to sort of
exploit the stage the way thatsomeone, for example, like
Jennifer Lawrence did.

Jules (01:17:39):
Who did win on her second nomination?

Joseph (01:17:41):
Who did win on her second nomination.
That's important.

Jules (01:17:44):
Because she was 22 when she won.
Mikey Madison is 25 years old.
Yeah, she's a little bit older.

Joseph (01:17:48):
She's a little bit older , but she hasn't had that moment
to sort of get on stage andhave sort of members right all
in love with her and fawn overher, unfortunately, and so maybe
that is a little bit of adetriment, but I do think that,
beyond best picture or the bestpicture frontrunner being, you
know, uh, one of her, one of heradvantages here, I think the

(01:18:09):
other thing that is important totalk about is, for me
personally, that bath to win issignificant for her, and I think
the other thing that isimportant to talk about is, for
me personally, that bafta win issignificant for her, and I
think it builds that momentum toa three-person race possibly,
you know, a two-person race orwe'll see what happens if maybe
she's just serving there to, youknow, take away votes from
someone, but I don't know aboutyou.
But don't you feel like youthhas to go through sag?

(01:18:31):
So jennifer law loses to ManuelRiva at the BAFTA, but she wins
that SAG award for SilverLinings Playbook.
So in my opinion, I think ifyou're a young person and you're
hoping to win that award, youhave to go through SAG.
Austin Butler is a young personwho loses SAG and wins BAFTA
and fails to win the Oscar, andso that's why I actually give

(01:18:52):
more credence to TimotheeChalamet, who's a little bit
older, on his second nomination,but he went through the SAG
right, and so I would have foundit more formidable had Mikey
won the.
SAG and Demi won the BAFTA.
That might've been reallyinteresting too right.
But I almost feel like ifyou're a young actor, you have
to go through the sag yeah, andI believe uh, to your point.

Jules (01:19:13):
I think brie larson was like 26 when she won um for for
room, when she won the sag.
I think one of palatro was like26, yeah, she won for
shakespeare love.
So these are, like you weresaying, young actors, very young
actors um, mikey madison is 25who go through sack first before
they end up winning the oscaryeah um, so I think that's not a

(01:19:36):
point to to overlook yeah, Ithink that's a really good point
, um.
So this is a really reallydifficult race.
I feel that people think it's alittle bit over before it is,
um, because demi more has suchan attractive narrative.
Um, and I will say, like, I'mgonna be so happy for Demi Moore
, you know, even if she's not mypersonal pick in the category,

(01:19:57):
it's just so lovely to see heron stage and have this moment,
after what I think has been acareer where she's you know, her
and her talent and what she'sbrought to this industry and
what she brings to her parts andher performances has been
undervalued by this industry, tofinally be receiving these
flowers.
It's really moving to see.
It's very poignant.
It's also very hopeful, uh, forpeople to see, you know, her

(01:20:19):
winning um, you know that it'snever too late and that you can
really have and are deserving ofthese.
You know momentous celebrations,um, and to not give up and to
keep trying, and so that that'sjust so attractive and so
appealing.
So I'm going to be so happy ifshe wins.
But you know, at the same time,you know and it's kind of weird

(01:20:43):
because you know, I would behappy for Demi Moore.
You know, I think my personalpick is Mikey Madison, so I
would be happy with that too.
And Fernanda Torres is lovelyin her movie, absolutely
beautiful in her film, so I'd behappy for her too.
But there's just somethingabout Demi Moore getting up
there and, you know, having thismoment.
That's just so beautiful to see.
So I'm going to be really happyfor her.
I just think that right now,you know, I see too many issues

(01:21:09):
popping up here and I'm just notsure that Demi Moore in the
substance.
Yeah.
Because really the issue isn'tDemi Moore or how she or you
know her sort of contenderstatus, it's the movie she's in.
Yeah.
You know, I'm just not sureDemi Moore in the substance is
something that can overcomethese hurdles.

Joseph (01:21:25):
Yeah, no mean more in the substance, as something that
can overcome these hurdles.
Yeah, no, I agree, and I think,to me, I think it's largely
going to come down to the leadactress, the title character of
anora.
I feel like she's a little bitfar from winning best actress,
but with that bafta win andpossibly her film being a best
picture winner with three tofour wins, um, if she's included
, possibly four, maybe even more, but if she's not, possibly

(01:21:46):
four, maybe even more.
But if she's not included, tome it's a question of who is she
going to take more votes awayfrom?
Is she going to take more votesaway from Demi Moore, or is she
going to take more votes awayfrom?

Jules (01:21:57):
Fernanda Torres.

Joseph (01:21:59):
And that's almost like saying if you're a voter, what
type of voter are you?
Are you the type of voter whois unmovable on Fernando Torres
and she's your number one onyour ranking?
There's no ifs, ands or butsabout it.
Or are you someone who saysDemi Moore is my number one and
I'm immovable and she's notgoing to fall below that in my

(01:22:20):
rankings?
Right To me?
If you're ranking FernandoTorres, I think you're ranking
the performance.
I think you're ranking theperformance and I think you're
ranking the story right.
And I think if you're rankingDemi Moore, you're ranking Demi
Moore right.
You're ranking Demi Moore andeverything she's been through
and her career getting back onstage, less so than ranking her

(01:22:44):
character or the substancethat's what I'm thinking right
now or her performance or herperformance, or her performance,
you know, because again.
It's just not a very Oscarperformance and what they
typically award for Oscars,unfortunately.
But because of that, I want tosay that the more unmovable
voter, the voter that is lesslikely to move, that is more
cemented in their decision togive the win to someone, is the

(01:23:06):
Fernando Torres voter.
Therefore, mikey steals votesfrom, possibly, demi Moore.

Jules (01:23:12):
So this is a very tough category to predict.
Yeah.
In a way.
It's sort of like maybe I'mbeing too extreme by saying this
, but kind of a heartbreakingcategory to predict, in a way,
because I want Demi Moore tohave her moment but, I, just I'm
just not seeing it Right.
You know, and at the same timeyou know, if Fernanda Torres
doesn't win, and it would meanso much to the Brazilian people,

(01:23:36):
brazil, you know, there'ssomething kind of you know sad
about that about that not comingto fruition.
Yeah.
And Mikey Madison, who I thinkis so integral to the successes
of Onora, you know, kind of notbeing able to take that momentum
of the BAFTA win and turn itinto a best actress win, which
she's, in my opinion, sodeserving of it.

(01:23:56):
There's also something sad, inmy opinion, about that too,
right.
So it's kind of a toughcategory to predict because
either way, you know, there'ssomething bittersweet about
whoever's going to win thatcategory.

Joseph (01:24:07):
If you want to spread the wealth, then maybe you say
to yourself I give Brazil theirfirst ever win for international
film, I give Honora and MikeyMadison a chance to go on stage
for Best Picture and I give DemiMoore the opportunity to go on
stage for.
Demi Moore, if you wanted tospread the wealth, we'll see

(01:24:28):
what kind of academy shows up.
The academy that wants tospread the wealth doesn't always
show up, right.

Jules (01:24:32):
Exactly, and so this is going to be a nerve wracking
category all the way to the end.
Yeah.
I'm sure they'll leave it tothe, to the, to the category
right before best picture.
Right, probably so guess,waiting for a while, yeah, and
so you know.
You know, even thinking aboutit, I'm getting antsy about it,
right?

Joseph (01:24:50):
So I mean well, finally, who do you have then?

Jules (01:24:52):
So right now, based on everything we've said, I have to
give the edge to FernandoTorres as my winner, for I'm
still here and my spoiler isDemi Moore for the.

Joseph (01:25:02):
Substance, I'm in 100% agreement, and again it's going
to come down to a hair.
But you know, I do think thatwe'll see.
I mean, demi Moore has yet toface off against her, so we'll
see what happens.

Jules (01:25:14):
Yeah, let's see who we're mourning.
Yeah.
The day after yeah.

Joseph (01:25:20):
Okay, okay, all right.

Jules (01:25:21):
So, and now let's move on to Best Director Right.
The nominees are Sean Baker forOnora, Brady Corbet for the
Brutalist, Jacques Audiard forEmilia Perez, James Mangold for
Complete Unknown and CoralieFargeat for the Substance.

Joseph (01:25:37):
And, as we have been talking about all year, we have
a list of all newbies whichmakes this race a little bit
interesting, right, becausethey're not all just new, but
also they're not necessarilytraditionally all of them.
You know the academy's cup oftea, you know, maybe a more
conventional film from jamesmangled he finally gets his
nomination, um.
But so I mean to sort of pointout who the winner is.

(01:26:00):
Let's talk about who it'sbetween, and I think the first
thing we should mention is thebafta right, and so, um, bafta
nominees that were also Oscarnominees were Onora the
Brutalist, emilia Perez and theSubstance.
So James Mangold did not makeit in, and then the BAFTA ended
up going to Brady Corbett forthe Brutalist right.
And then let's talk about theother really good comparison,

(01:26:22):
which is the Director's GuildAward, where, again, if
foreshadowed what happened withthis list, I think we had all
newbies right, first timenominations for everyone.
The nominees there were Onorathe Brutalist, a Complete

(01:26:43):
Unknown, emilia Perez andConclave Right.
So Conclave didn't make it, butthe other four did, and the
winner here was Sean Baker forOnora, and so we're kind of
split between those two names.
But I think that, analyzing the, so conclave didn't make it,
but the other four did, and thewinner here was sean baker for
anora, and so we're kind ofsplit between those two names.

Jules (01:26:50):
But I think that you know , analyzing the history, I think
well, also to that point, youknow, adding a bit onto that,
you know, brady corbett won thegolden globe.
Yeah, he did as well he did,and I believe that he also won
the critics choice.
I think john m chu oh, john mchu won the critics choice the
critics choice said you knowwhat?

Joseph (01:27:10):
I don't care about this category I'm just giving it to
john m chu, right, um, butanyway, um.
So it's sort of solidifiedbetween those two names.
Um, the dgi, I think, has had atremendous history, sort of
foreshadowing who's going to winthis award.
They've chosen almost everysingle winner.
They've gotten gotten itcorrect, whether it was Jane
Campion for the Power of the Dog, who was a favorite to someone

(01:27:31):
like Tom Hooper winning here forthe King's Speech, when the
BAFTA oddly enough, I'm prettysure went for David Fincher and
the DGA chose Iñárritu forBirdman, when the BAFTA and the
Golden Globe went for RichardLinklater for Boyhood, right.
So the DGA has a tremendoushistory.
I think the last times thatI've seen them sort of have a

(01:27:51):
hiccup, it was 2012,.
Right For R Goldblatt.
Affleck, which is kind of likean asterisk there because he
wasn't even nominated.
But the winner did come fromthe nominees Life of Pi and Lee.
And really the most notable oneis when Sam Mendes wins the
award for 1917 and the.
Oscar ends with going to BongJoon-ho for.

Jules (01:28:10):
Parasite.

Joseph (01:28:10):
Now maybe, if you do a little bit of a deeper analysis,
when you kind of consider theOscars, weighing the possibility
of giving two directing Oscarsto someone like you know, Sam
Mendes, who doesn't have theheft of a filmography, of
someone like, for example,Spielberg, who does have those
two Oscars, maybe it was alittle bit of a telltale sign

(01:28:31):
that this was going to go BongJoon-ho's way right.
So, barring that, they're justan excellent precursor versus,
you know, bafta.
They went, as I said, for theSocial Network Boyhood Aquire on
the Western Front.
So I kind of trust the dga moreI think we have to say that sean
baker is the favorite here,right, the one caveat I will say

(01:28:55):
is this the one caveat, andit's kind of interesting to
bring it up but if there is anachilles heel to the whole onora
campaign is that the film couldnot muster a second below the
line nomination other than filmediting.
And that's a little bit of anAchilles heel for any film that

(01:29:16):
doesn't muster that second levelof support.
If you look at a film likeParasite, which wins both
picture and director, it has anediting nomination and a
production design nomination.
If you look at a film this isespecially true of contemporary
films right, this is verydifficult, you know.
You look at all the AlexanderPayne films.
It's hard for them to ever getanything other than, you know,

(01:29:39):
one level of support below theline.
But if you look at somethinglike Nomadland, right, it had
that editing nomination, but italso had that cinematography
nomination.
Right.
So when a Nora sort of fails toget a nomination other than
editing, it's a little bit of apossibly a red flag.
If he doesn't win here, I thinkthat might be where Brady

(01:29:59):
Corbett's campaign sort ofexploits their advantage because
the Boudoulas is nominated allover below the line Right, um,
and so if I had to look for acouple of films that were able
to do it, the only ones I reallycome up with and I think you'll
find these sort of interestingand familiar, especially as you
start talking about, you know um, best picture and, as we've

(01:30:22):
already talked about, in editing, but you have the departed
right, which one editing onepicture, one director, it's only
tech was editing right so outof five nominations it wins four
, including director.
You have, um, a couple yearsbefore, that million dollar baby
right which I believe had eightnominations and wins again four
, and all I had was that editingnomination.

(01:30:42):
But those are a while back.
And then a little bit furtherthan that, you have traffic,
which is again five nominations,I believe, and a winner of four
.
Um, and again it's only tech isediting.
So it just brings up this ideafor me that you know, if a nora
is going to be a best picture,best director movie, it's
probably going to have anexcellent night and be a little

(01:31:02):
bit on the on the four side ofthings which is tough to tell
where you get that fourth winfrom, which is maybe why some
people are bringing up MikeyMadison or the possibility of it
winning editing, but other thanthat, I think that the DGA is
going to sort of hold true andhave Sean Baker win here Also.
I think he's been doing itother than Jacques Garillard the
longest and you could make theargument that he should have

(01:31:25):
been here or his film shouldhave been here back in 2017 for
the Florida Project.

Jules (01:31:30):
Right and I think that's a point I wanted to also stress
is that, you know, on thesurface it would seem like Brady
Corbett would be the go-to here, because the film is just so
grandiose and so, you know, thescale is so immense that it just
screams best director, uh, forvoters.
That being said, you know, aswe've talked about quite a few

(01:31:53):
times, you know, the the film,the nature of that film, is not
going to not everyone's going tolove it.
Yeah.
Um, and so that that'sunderstandable.
I mean, that's understood, um,but it's very true that you know
.
A con for Brady Corbett is thatit's his third film.
Yeah.
And it's really the first timethese filmmakers are being

(01:32:13):
exposed to Brady Corbett,because the chances that they've
seen or at least a largeportion of them have seen Vox,
lux and Childhood of a Leader,you know, are less likely.
Yeah, so this is their firstlike real exposure to this
filmmaker.
And when you put a contenderlike that against someone like
Sean Baker, who I think morepeople in the Academy have been
exposed to his work, Sean Bakerhas had, you know, a much longer

(01:32:37):
career since, you know, theearly 2000s.
I believe Take Out was, whichwas his first, you know,
celebrated film was in 2004.
So he's just had such a longer,much longer trajectory.
Yeah.
That when you put Brady Corbettagainst someone like that.
You know, I'm just not surethat, no matter how big your

(01:32:57):
movie is yeah, that really youknow you can sort of eclipse
that.
Yeah.
So I think that's a big reasonwhy that's making Sean Baker the
favorite in this category.
Also, jacques Auduard has beendoing it for a very long time as
well, but unfortunately hesuffers from the sort of
negativity that has surroundedthat campaign.
I mean that film, maybe not somuch the Carlos Sofia Gascon

(01:33:20):
tweets, but certainly thecriticism that has been levied
against that film.
He bears some of the brunt ofthat.
That doesn't help him.
And Koli Farzal?
We've already talked about himas an actress.
The substance is just.
You know the fact that KoliFarzal even got nominated for
that is a huge coup.

Joseph (01:33:35):
Also a young filmmaker only by a second title, exactly
Like Corbett.

Jules (01:33:39):
So in this competition, you know, in this category, it
just seems like sean baker isthe obvious choice, right um now
I will say that the achillesheel here for sean baker is
again.

Joseph (01:33:51):
We've talked about this issue how many can sean baker?
actually win, and if his film isgoing to be a sort of traffic
departed, sort of crash movie,it has to get three or four.
That's if we're saying it's notlike a spotlight movie with
just picture and screenplay,right, you know, are they
willing to give that many winsto sean baker?
And the dga win, I think, isreally telling.

(01:34:13):
I don't think we came up withanyone who was, you know,
reasonably as competitive inoriginal screenplay um, at least
not by.
You know the numbers.
And so can you give sean bakerthat many awards?
Or do you want to try to spreadthe wealth a little bit?
Because if you do, this wouldbe the place where you could
maybe give something else to,for example, something like the

(01:34:34):
Brutalist.
And then the other thing thatis maybe at the, you know, an
angle and advantage of theBrutalist is not only is it a
giant film where, if you watchedit or not, you sort of say,
well, I have to get thisdirector right.
Because it's an immense film,but also the timeliness of it.
You know it's an immigrantstory.
It's an.
American saga and you know thestory of the United States is

(01:34:55):
changing by day.
So it would, you know, send amessage.
I would think it sends amessage from voters, and
certainly international voters.
And no surprise, it did reallywell at the BAFTA and winning
best director.
And it did really well at theGolden Globes winning best
director, and so I think those,if something happens and a Noron
does not win this race, I thinkyou have to look at that.

(01:35:17):
You have to look at too muchSean Baker, because we're giving
him awards elsewhere and anopportunity to highlight this
sort of American saga, which Ithink you and I are pretty
confident is probably going tofall short of best picture,
right, but it's a way to sort ofsay to audiences, you know, who
haven't had an opportunity tosee it yet go watch this movie,
because you know what it'stalking about in terms of the

(01:35:37):
immigrant experience andAmerican context, you know of
its history and its future, youknow.
I think all those are thingsthat you know voters are going
to want to champion.

Jules (01:35:47):
Right.
I think that's a hundredpercent accurate.
I agree a hundred percent.
So I think we're in agreementthat our pick here is Sean Baker
for Onora and our spoiler isBrady Corbett for the Brutalist?

Joseph (01:35:58):
Yeah, exactly.

Jules (01:35:59):
And finally, we've reached the last category.
You know, you know it's takenus a bit to get here.
Yeah.

Joseph (01:36:04):
But the last category is Best Picture Right and the
nominees are Well, the nomineeswere Onora the Brutalist, a
Complete Unknown Conclave, dunePart 2,.
Emilia Perez I'm Still here.
Nickel Boys, the Substance andWicked.

Jules (01:36:26):
Okay, so I think this race has really dwindled to two
people right, I mean two films.

Joseph (01:36:32):
One film sort of surging very late in the game right and
it's sort of a head-to-headyeah will it be an aura or will
it be conclave?
Exactly and so conclave has thesagG and the BAFTA on its side,
and recency, I suppose the twomost recent ones.

Jules (01:36:49):
And Onora, has the PGA, the DGA and the WGA Right.
Neither has the Golden Globewin.
Yeah, interestingly enough.

Joseph (01:37:00):
Which is good, because they both avoided the curse of
the Golden Globe right, that'strue, yeah, doesn't Onora have a
little bit of the curse of thecritics' choice?
Doesn't that happen sometimes?
I think sometimes, but not asof late.
No, not as of late um, and soit's really.

Jules (01:37:14):
Which way is the race gonna go?
Is it gonna go towards conclaveor towards an aura?
And we were actually talkingabout this recently.
You know the the path ofconclave is eerily similar to
the full monty, I think.

Joseph (01:37:26):
Right, there's been a yeah Right.

Jules (01:37:28):
The Full Monty won the SAG and the BAFTA.
As a very British film Rightand it still lost the Oscar
Right To a film Titanic whichwon the DGA and the PGA.

Joseph (01:37:40):
Right, exactly, except I think Titanic actually lost the
the Writer's Guild as anoriginal screenplay.
I think it lost it to as goodas it gets Right.
So even Onora sort of hasbested Titanic here.
And having the Producers Guild,the Directors Guild and the
Writers Guild.

Jules (01:37:56):
Right.
Well, Conclave was disqualifiedfrom the Writers Guild Right.

Joseph (01:38:00):
Right, I hate to mention it, that's true.
I think it would have won hadit been there.
Yeah, yeah.
But I think the more recent youknow Harrow-Lauer comparison
that people are pointing out orat least you know we've thought
about, we've discussed it aswell is the whole Shape of Water
, three Billboards breakdownRight Shape of Water, the winner

(01:38:21):
of the Producers Guild Awardand the Directors Guild Award,
and Three Billboards, the winnerat BAFTA and the winner at the
SAG Awards, right and um.
I'm pretty sure neither filmwould end up winning at the
Writer's Guild Award and in fact, um, the screenplay categories
all together went to a differentfilm, something like Get Out,
for example right yeah.
so I think that in bothinstances, you know, titanic,

(01:38:44):
the PGA DJ winner outdid theBAFTA SAG winner, and the same
thing happened to Shape of Water, right.
So I think there's been, youknow, sustained momentum for
Onora.
The question is recency bias,the coda of it all you know, and
part of me wonders if thisisn't a year to split, a year to

(01:39:06):
split the vote and to give onemovie best picture, the one that
cannot win best director, andgive another movie best director
, right, we've kind of talkedabout how both films are sort of
feel like timely films, right,and they, they sort of feel like
two different academies,remember we said how I was gonna
say that he's gonna show up.

Jules (01:39:23):
Which one's gonna show up ?
Is it gonna be the green bookup?
Is it going?

Joseph (01:39:26):
to be the Green Book Academy, or is it going to be?

Jules (01:39:28):
Conclave, or is it going to be the Parasite Academy?
And if they do, it's going tobe Enora.

Joseph (01:39:31):
It's going to be Enora, exactly no case in point.
You bring up Parasite.
We talk about, I think, thefirst film since Parasite to be
a.
But if you look at Conclave,check so many of the boxes of
what they traditionally like,right and no one has an issue

(01:39:52):
with the film yet right.
And we also talk about thetimeliness of everything that's
occurring in terms of you knowwhat's the recent developments
of the Pope, who we hope getsbetter soon.
But you know, I mean Russian-USrelations have been all over
the headlines lately, right withthe unfortunate offenses that
have occurred at the un.

(01:40:12):
So both films timely and Ithink both films right sort of
speak to the moment, right,economic, uh, issues of the
moment, political issues of themoment, um, so I I think it
really is a tough race.
I I don't think anyone shouldreally say that anora has this
in the bag.
I think it's going to facequite a challenge here.

Jules (01:40:30):
Academy, you know, again, the safer choice being Conclave
.
But you know, I do feel likethere's you said timely there's
like some aspects to Enora thatI feel have the potential to be

(01:40:55):
sort of timeless.
So when I look at that ending,for example, which we've talked
about a bit, such a powerfulending, the best ending of the
year, you know there's somethingabout watching that ending that
feels like it's, you know,getting ready to be this
timeless moment in this filmthat you look back on and you
understand.
Yes, this won Best Picture.

(01:41:16):
I know of the group it would bemy pick for the Best Picture.
But there's something aboutthat film that I think stands a
greater chance of having thosekinds of timeless moments stand
out, you know, with time, moreso than a film like Conclave,
for some reason.

(01:41:37):
Now again, that doesn't meanthat always matters.
It didn't matter for Green Book, um.
So I'm not saying that that's,you know, the prevailing factor
here.
But given all the things thatare going for Onora, adding that
extra layer for me just kind ofsells me on Onora being the
winner.
Maybe if Onora had lost eitherthe PGA or the DGA or the you

(01:42:01):
know either of those.

Joseph (01:42:02):
We had suspected that it wouldn't be perfect.
There are so many films thatread like producers, guild
winners before Onora, right,right, when you have Wicked and
A Complete Unknown there and theBrutalist.
There are so many films and thefact that Onora won that is a
huge coup, right.

Jules (01:42:18):
And I'll also say that you know, since the PGA kind of
replicates to a certain extentthis preferential ballot, you
know that.
You know they've done prettywell recently and you know they
mimicked the Oscars pretty well.
You know, I know people weresort of really skeptical when
Coda did well at the PGA andHousehold won the SAG, if it

(01:42:42):
could carry that into a BestPicture win without being
nominated for editing ordirector, et cetera, et cetera.
And the PGA was one of thefirst signs that, yes, it's
going to happen.
Yeah, and it did yeah.
And so there's something totheir.
You know the way that theirsystem works.
That really mirrors the Academysystem really well, and so I

(01:43:02):
think there's a reason why Noraprevailed on the preferential
ballot for the PGA.
Yeah, and that's going toreplicate at the Academy.

Joseph (01:43:10):
Right.
I mean I think it's also aquestion of you know, does Nora,
does it get enough wins to getthat best picture win?
I mean it's gone as little asSpotlight with those two wins
for screenplay and picture.
You know, spotlight again avery specific type of movie that
they're going to embrace.
You know, based on a true story.
You know there's.
It's a Sean Baker film, so ithas its edge.

(01:43:33):
It has its confrontation,confrontational nature, which
isn't always the Academy's cupof tea.
And, like I said, I mean thereare definitely going to be
people in the Academy that saywell, say well, this is, this is
a, this is a way I can spreadthe wealth and I can give
conclave picture and I can giveyou know, sean baker, director,
and to me it could, it couldread very much, like, you know,

(01:43:54):
this is how I can give a bunchof corona and austria for roma
and still give it to green book,because it's, you know, the the
easiest film to swallow here.
Um, and sort of puts my messageor the message that I think is
important, right in front oftheir face.
It's a sort of way to, you know, have your cake and eat it too.
And there's a part of me thatthinks, you know, it's easier to

(01:44:18):
see Sean Baker as a solo BestDirector winner or a Best
Director, best Screenplay winnerthan it is to see him, you know
, the Academy taking this momentto embrace Onora so
wholeheartedly.
I think it would be great, Ithink it'd be incredibly
encouraging and maybe spell, youknow, this new chapter we're in
in cinema.
you know, in these dark anddrying and challenging times

(01:44:39):
that are just so overwhelming,the idea that we're, you know,
going to come into a chapter ofcinema that sees the Academy
sort of embrace films, like theCountry for Old Men and the
Departed, and we're, you know,gonna come into a chapter of
cinema that sees the academysort of embrace films, like the
country for old man and thedeparted, and we're going to
come into this cycle of ofembracing the challenging films
that kind of reflect, you know,the fracturing, you know, or the
fracturing consciousness ofyeah of viewers in the united

(01:45:02):
states and globally.
It'd be great to see, and Ithink it would be a harbinger of
that, and I'd love that.
But there's part of me thatfeels like in my gut.
You know, reading the historybook, it's going to be easier to
it's.
It's more easy to imagine thehistory book reading Conclave
for best picture, sean Baker forbest director Right.

Jules (01:45:21):
You know it's going to be .
It's going to be a tight race.
You know, I think Onora has theedge.
I think most people think Onorahas the edge.
But again, you know, there hasto be something to the fact that
Onora didn't win that SAG, youknow, and it could have won that
SAG.
Yeah, it didn't.
They opted for something likeConclave instead.
I don't think again that Onorahas it in the bag, but I think

(01:45:43):
there's enough things going forit that I give it just that edge
.
Um, and you're right, I thinkthat it would be a very positive
and hopeful sign.
It's very especially for acertain kind of cinema, daring
cinema in a way that doesn'treally get embraced or
spotlighted by the Academyenough.
Um, so a win for Nora and forSean Baker and Sean Baker's

(01:46:06):
films as a whole is, you know, awearing a win for that kind of
daring cinema.

Joseph (01:46:10):
Right, and so I was also going to bring up the idea we
spoke about it briefly, uh,earlier today that idea that you
know this is the moment, maybethe only moment that Indian
Paintbrush, the company, thatsort of bankrolled Conclave, is
going to get a chance at thatpodium Right Not necessarily

(01:46:31):
Tessa ross, who's a wonderfulproducer.
She's going to keep makingwonderful films.
She'll have other opportunitiesbut indian paintbrush they
bankroll all of west andersonfilms and we know that west
anderson is the type of artistright that it's going to be so
difficult for him to ever reallyreach that stage.
He's just so true to his vision, not not unlike a David Lynch
in his own way.

Jules (01:46:47):
Not unlike Sean Baker.

Joseph (01:46:49):
Not unlike Sean Baker possibly, but I just feel like
maybe this would be the momentto sort of have Indian
Paintbrush sort of step up onthat stage as well.
Yeah, I think that couldpossibly be a factor for some
people.

Jules (01:47:04):
Right, well, all that being said, two-headed race.
Yeah.
I'm going to go with Onora asmy pick for the Best Picture
winner, and the spoiler isConclave.

Joseph (01:47:18):
I sort of alluded to it in our previous video and you
know, go check that out if youhaven't yet when we talked about
all the categories below theline.
I think this race is strictlygoing to down to best film
editing I think honestly, ifconclave has the strength to win
best film editing and be morethan 50 years of history, 1950s,

(01:47:40):
king solomon's mind, then Ithink it's gonna have enough
popularity when when BestPicture, and if it doesn't, then
it will not win Best Picture.
That doesn't mean Anora has towin editing.
Right now, if you look at ourvideo, I'm predicting Wicked and
we go through a great argumentabout why that is and how we got
there, and please go check thatout.
But Anora doesn't have to winediting to win picture.

(01:48:03):
Conclave has to win editing towin picture.
conclave has to win editing towin picture right and I would
argue that should it have enoughfavor to beat all the history
against it to win editing, thenit should easily have enough
favor to take that sag and bapto win into a best picture win.
So it's going to come down toediting.
Right now I'm I'm going wickedfor that category and so for

(01:48:25):
best picture, I I agree with you.
I think think it's a Nora rightnow.
It's one hell of a feat.
I think Conclave can do it.
I feel like you know the codaof it all, the green book of it
all.
It happens, you know, I meanwe're coming off Oppenheimer,
which was a pretty good BestPicture nominee.

(01:48:49):
And we can only you know theAcademy is only going to have
such.
You know the Academy is onlygoing to have so many good
choices.
They're going to make a lessthan successful choice at some
point.
Right.
And that might be this year.
Right.
So I think Conclave will onlygo so far as its editing
nomination or win.
Very interesting, so I go withNora and my spoiler is Conclave.

Jules (01:49:05):
Okay, so we're in agreement.
Then, um, I think what you know, I think you're right by best
editing, I think we'll have apretty good idea yeah if anora
is winning or not.
If anora wins best editing.

Joseph (01:49:16):
You know it's winning best picture yeah and again, if
conclave loses best editing, Ithink it has to lose best
picture.
And if it wins best editing,you already know it's gonna best
picture.
It all comes down to theediting category again, right.

Jules (01:49:29):
All right.
Well, that was a very long,deep dive into our final
predictions for the AcademyAwards.
It's been a long run, right?
We're going to finally see whathappens on Sunday.

Joseph (01:49:40):
We look forward to seeing what happens, and then
we'll have our post-mortem ofthe events that transpired.

Jules (01:49:46):
We'll see how many we got right.
Can will smith?

Joseph (01:49:50):
come yet can you?
Imagine we get another willsmith moment.

Jules (01:49:53):
Oh man no no, sometimes you feel like some people tune
into the academy awards just tosee if some some kind of weird
crap is going to happen.

Joseph (01:50:02):
Like that would it be great if they showed the academy
awards unedited, like not noneof that broadcasting crap like
if they charge for that, Iguarantee you that people will
pay to see it like an uneditedversion of it, where you get to
see yeah all of the things, allof the things that nobody wants
you to see, and nothing editedor bleeped out.

(01:50:22):
I guarantee you.
You charge 25 bucks and peoplewill give you 25 bucks to watch
that yeah, yeah, no, I thinkthat's a good point.

Jules (01:50:29):
So we'll finally see what happens on Sunday and then
we'll have our you know our takeon what happened and you know
how we're feeling about it.

Joseph (01:50:37):
I forgot to mention one thing because it's such an off
chance, but I do want to say onething.
It's such an off chance, but Ido want to say one thing Right
now, in our predictions we haveFernanda Torres for actress and
I'm still here finally winningfor Brazil.
I want to say that, objectivelyspeaking, my feelings on the

(01:51:02):
film aside, Onora has done anexcellent job beating most of
these films, but it has not yetbeaten I'm Still here.
They have never gone head tohead, that's all I'm saying.
That if something wild happensand I'm Still here, wins Best
Picture.
You said it first, I said itfirst.
It comes down to this idea thatNora never took on.

(01:51:24):
I'm Still here, head to head.
That's all I'm saying to that.
Again, it's not wishfulthinking.
I'm still here, head to head.
That's all I'm saying to that.
Again, it's not wishfulthinking, I'm just calling it
right Saying it.

Jules (01:51:31):
I don't think that's going to happen, but definitely
you have all credit If it doeshappen you know, coda cut wasn't
Murphy's, murphy's law.
Coda's law.

Joseph (01:51:38):
Anything can happen.

Jules (01:51:51):
I'll write it good note to leave it on.
Anything can happen.
Hopefully it's not a boringceremony.
You know I'd be nice, I thinkit's kind of been a chaotic
season, so the chances of itbeing a boring ceremony are not
high, which is nice, you know ina way, but also nerve wracking.
So we'll see what happens andwe'll have a full report right
after the ceremony sometime nextweek.
Until then, I'm Jules.
And I'm Joseph, and it's been apleasure.
The music on this episode,entitled Cool Cats, was

(01:52:16):
graciously provided by KevinMacLeod and incompetechcom,
licensed under Creative Commonsby Attribution 3.0.
Under Creative Commons byAttribution 3.0.
Http//creativecommonsorglicenses by 3.0.

Joseph (01:52:42):
Disclaimer the Academy Anonymous podcast is in no way
affiliated or endorsed by theAcademy of Motion Picture Arts
and Sciences.

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