On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:
- Kieran Culkin way ahead of his competition
- Screen Actors Guild snub kills Guy Pearce momentum for Best Picture contender “The Brutalist”
- The surprising (and heartwarming) rise of scene -stealer Yura Borisov - from Cannes staple to knocking at Oscar’s door for “Anora”
- Is Stanley Tucci getting lost among his cast mates in “Conclave”?
- Edward Norton flexing his vocals may just be enough for the upset
- Clarence Maclin’s chances for a double nomination still alive after unexpected BAFTA support
- Jeremy Strong able to survive “The Apprentice” controversy & dislike - with or without Sebastian Stan
- Denzel Washington, ZERO British Academy nods…. still
- A24 vs. A24 vs. A24 vs. A24 - Too many actor contenders may prove a problem A24 has no solution for
- SAG snub shows the Sebastian Stan vote-split effect is real
- “A Different Man” too small? “The Apprentice” to unlikeable?
- Dual makeup shortlists may be Sebastian Stan’s “ace in the hole”
- Daniel Craig’s OVERDUE status carries him to surprise first SAG mention
- Hugh Grant’s devilish “Heretic” turn capitalizing on polarizing “Queer”
- Too early to go back-to-back for Colman Domingo
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Jules (00:14):
hey, welcome back to academy, anonymous, I'm jules
and I'm joseph and we'recontinuing our excursion of the
oscar race, our finalpredictions for the Oscars.
Oscar nomination morning iscoming up and we've already
transitioned into above the lineand we're going to do right now
the acting categories.
So let's jump right into bestsupporting actor.
This is a very sort ofconsolidated group.
(00:38):
I think the race is really upto, or comes down to, six
contenders.
If I'm being candid, I thinkthat you know, possibly we want
to be generous, maybe eight,seven, eight contenders, but I
think the top six are the topsix and it's really a question
of who gets that.
That last spot, in my opinion.
(01:00):
But let's go over.
The screen actors guildreleased their nominations and
the Screen Actors Guildnomination is probably the most
important nomination that anactor can get in this award
circuit.
There is overlap between theAcademy and the Screen Actors
Guild.
However, the Screen ActorsGuild nominees are determined by
a committee, which is importantto remember.
(01:22):
We don't know exactly who'spart of the committee, but
certainly you can bet thatthere's a portion that are part
of the committee that arepossibly not Academy members.
However, they are a very usefultool, I believe, for actors or
we believe for actors to use asa guide as to what films to put
on what screeners to watch andwhat films to consider for
(01:46):
acting yeah and acting is thebiggest voting block in the
academy, so the screen actorsguild is one is probably the
best thing that you can get butdo keep in mind that that screen
actors, guild committee andmembers at large of the sag.
Joseph (02:01):
They now do include things like radio artists and
artists for other different typeof vocal work or work where
they're selling theirpersonality and their face.
This is not the case for theAcademy.
For the Academy, you have tohave film credits in order to
get in there, and not just filmcredits but a certain type of
film standing.
You have to be invited.
(02:22):
That can be the differencemaker between some people making
it in and some people beingleft off.
Jules (02:29):
We've certainly seen a transition of let's call it the
SAGs becoming a little bit morepopulist.
Yeah, you saw that really playout, I believe in 2021, when
House of Gucci managed anensemble nomination a nomination
for Lady Gaga and a nominationfor Jared Leto and that movie
got close to blank at the Oscarsand just managed a makeup
(02:49):
nomination, so there's aninclusion in this group recently
that, I think, makes thenominations a little bit more
lacking the security they usedto have.
That being said, they do do verywell with winners.
I think their influence in thatregard has increased.
(03:09):
So if you win a SAG, thelikelihood of you winning the
Oscar is very big, and so Ithink that's different as well.
However, just don't lose sightthat the committee that's voting
for these nominees is not thesame committee that was voting
for them 10 years ago.
Joseph (03:28):
Right.
Jules (03:29):
And that's important to keep in mind as we try to maybe
possibly make a division betweenthe SAG voter and the Academy
Award voter.
Joseph (03:40):
Yeah.
Jules (03:41):
They're not necessarily synonymous, and so in the best
supporting actor category, thesag's nominated kieran colkin a
real pain who's a huge favoriteto win.
You are boris of anora, who'sdone incredibly well and managed
to get nominated at all themain precursors the golden globe
, the sag and the bafta.
I believe he won some importantcritical awards as well, and
(04:02):
that has been sort of a surprisehow well he's done, considering
that that film is very, youknow, it's an ensemble piece
opposite Mikey Madison, who isthe central figure, and
initially I thought that thefilm would have a hard time
differentiating its differentsupporting characters because
(04:24):
they all have a spotlight andthey all do really well.
But that film certainly leavesenough room for an actor like
Yura Borisov to shine.
The film really goes out of itsway to spotlight that character
, to really shape that character.
He has really lingering,memorable moments.
So in a way it's not surprisingthat he's done as well as he's
(04:45):
done, but still somewhatsurprising.
Joseph (04:49):
Yeah, I agree.
Jules (04:50):
The SAG nomination, I think was huge, and the BAFTA
nomination was huge, and so Ithink Jura is pretty much locked
for a nomination, if you wantme to be completely honest in my
opinion.
And then someone that I thinkis completely locked is Edward
Norton, for a complete unknown.
He's playing a real life figure.
These kinds of actingcategories tend to favor actors
(05:12):
playing real people, realhistorical figures.
Um, that you know of, thatyou've read, of that you've uh,
been aware of.
Um, he's playing Pete Seeger.
He's playing Pete Seeger.
He's playing Pete Seeger.
He does a really great job inthe role.
(05:32):
You can certainly see votersattracted to his work.
Joseph (05:37):
He does his own singing he does his own singing as well.
Jules (05:41):
He's an actor's actor.
He's going to reap severalnominations.
He already has, I believe,three or four.
Joseph (05:48):
Yeah.
Jules (05:49):
Watch out for him to be a favorite to spoil Kieran Culkin
possibly.
Joseph (05:54):
And he's the vet here too.
Jules (05:55):
He's the veteran.
Like I said, we need, we shouldhave a veteran, at least one
veteran, in every category, andso Edward.
And so Edward Norton is lockedand loaded.
Jeremy Strong was nominated atthe SAG for the Apprentice,
which was a surprise inclusion,but if you've seen the movie
it's not that surprising.
It's a very showy role.
Jeremy Strong does a great job.
The Apprentice as a whole, Ithink, stands to surprise a lot
(06:17):
of people.
Joseph (06:18):
What was surprising was that he was listed at SAG
without Sebastian Stan.
Jules (06:24):
That was a little surprising, but we'll get into
that when we get into actor,because there's aspects of that
snub that are not as surprising.
Joseph (06:30):
But maybe he has enough of a reputation and enough
experience and enough of afilmography to survive sort of
as a lone nominee.
It could be.
Jules (06:41):
It could be.
In any regard, I think he's ina very good position to land a
nomination.
I won't call him a lock yeah infact, I could even go so far as
to say that in my predictedfive, if there were to be a miss
, I would imagine it to bejeremy strong, but we'll get to
that in a minute.
And the last nominee was a verysurprising inclusion of
jonathan baileyicked.
(07:01):
You know, I really am notthinking of Jonathan Bailey as a
contender for this race.
Joseph (07:09):
Not very viable right now.
Jules (07:10):
No, I think, if anything, the Jonathan Bailey nomination
certainly shows that the SAGcommittee was very enamored with
Wicked.
Yes, but the fact that JonathanBailey has missed almost
everywhere else sort of feels alittle bit, dare I say,
indulgent of this uh awards bodyI really thought that were
(07:31):
wicked to be a huge popularchoice.
Joseph (07:33):
At the sag, the individual to read this
nomination and possibly steal aspot was goldblum right?
Jules (07:39):
who's never been nominated?
Who has?
Joseph (07:40):
never been nominated and he's jeff goldblum, right.
But the fact that it's jonathanbailey Bailey over Jeff
Goldblum and the committee sawthem both because they're in the
same movie has me thinking thatthe Jonathan Bailey isn't just
not much of a tried and truecontender to reap a spot here,
but that there's possibly sortof a red herring McGovern, as
(08:01):
Hitchcock would say, with thedominance that Wicked had at
this awards group the fact thatit got those five nominations
four without stunt, but one ofthem is Jonathan Bailey.
There's got to be somethingthere where you sort of start to
pump the brakes and say, well,how popular can Wicked really be
at any of the other places?
Jules (08:23):
jonathan bailey, for example and we'll get into it
didn't even make the bafta longlist right, exactly, and he's
british and he's british, um,and so that's something that
goes along with what we weresaying at the beginning of this
segment that there's a populismto this voting body, to this, to
this committee, thesecommittees that have been chosen
as of late, that I hesitate tobe 100% sure that the Academy
(08:50):
feels exactly the same way, andWicked Landing more nominations
than people would think seemslike an example of that.
I thought that was a littlestrange.
That being said, he's the fifthnominee.
I thought that was a littlestrange.
That being said, he's the fifthnominee, and so, of those five,
I think those four are verystrong contenders.
(09:13):
People who didn't make the list,surprisingly, were Clarence
Macklin for Sing Sing.
In fact, sing Sing did very poorat the SAG.
I had expected it to do a lotbetter.
It only landed on a nominationfor Coleman colman domingo,
which is a vulnerable candidate,and we'll get to that when we
talk about this actor, clarencemacklin, missing here, when
someone like ira borosov, who'sprobably an actor that not many
(09:35):
people in the not many actors inthe committee and in the uh
actors union are very well arevery aware of him making it on
here over, someone like ClarenceMacklin, to me, is a big uh
sign, um, as uh, in terms ofwhich, uh, newbie quote unquote
is more uh favored Um.
So I always had my doubts aboutClarence Macklin, especially
(09:59):
knowing that he stood a chanceto be a part of the writing
credit, uh, the writing teamthat gets a nomination for
screenplay.
If that were to happen, thesnub here is really attention
calling to me.
Really there's no reason why,if colman domingo is present at
least, even if there's no bestpicture, best ensemble
nomination, if he's present,colman domingo, there's really
(10:20):
no excuse to not have macklin onthis list.
Joseph (10:23):
He's not on it and Very odd, very odd to be seeing again
five nominations for Wicked,including Jonathan Bailey, and
one nomination for Sing Singonly for Coleman Domingo Right,
very odd.
Jules (10:36):
Yeah, and the other thing I will say is the biggest snub
here was Guy Pearce, for theBrutalist.
Guy Pearce is one of ourgreatest actors who has,
shockingly, never been nominatedfor an Oscar.
I think that goes a long wayinto positioning him as a strong
candidate for the Oscar lineupfor Best Supporting Actor.
That being said, I did predictthat he would get snubbed from
(10:59):
the Best Supporting Actor lineup.
He's the antagonist of thatmovie, he's the villainous part
part in that movie and I wasn'tsure how much the committee,
which I think again, tends tofavor things a little bit more
what's the right word I don'twant to say safe, but certainly
things that are a little bitmore accessible.
I always had an idea thatactors in that committee, um,
(11:22):
would feel a little bit, youknow more, would feel distant
with the piece of the Brutalistyeah alienated.
And that's what happened.
He got snubbed.
But I don't expect Guy Pearceto get snubbed in the Brutalist.
In fact, his snub at the SAGand Felicity Jones snub reminded
me a lot of the Master and AmyAdams snub and Joaquin Phoenix's
(11:46):
snub.
But uh, philip Seymour Hoffmanstill managed to get a
nomination.
Similarly, adrian Brody has anomination too at the SAG.
So I think Guy Pearce somepeople are tempted right now to
sort of jump ship because hedidn't make the SAG, but he
didn't make the SAG overJonathan Bailey.
That's too extreme.
You know that has to tell yousomething that you know.
(12:06):
That's a weird sort of thingthat occurred there.
He has the BAFTA nomination.
Joseph (12:13):
Yeah, which is the most important thing, he had the
BAFTA bounce back.
So if you miss this list andyou're already referencing some
people when you start listingthe individuals who got into the
BAFTA.
Those individuals of a BAFTAbounce back are still in a very
good spot.
Jules (12:27):
Correct, and so I think Guy Pearce is still really,
really strong.
I really positioned him onlybeneath Kieran Culkin and Edward
Norton, to be honest, and so,in my humble opinion, those are
the six actors to look at tomake this race, to make this
(12:47):
lineup, and it's really aquestion as to will Jeremy
Strong get snubbed from BestSupporting Actor for someone
like Clarence Macklin in SingSing?
And the reason I bring upJeremy Strong is because there's
still something about this listthat includes Kieran Culkin
that maybe sits a little weirdfor me.
(13:08):
I'm not 100% positive,considering how well known they
both are for Succession, howvoters are going to feel by
including them both in the samecategory, both in the same
category so soon afterSuccession.
I'm just not sure that I 100%feel that it's going to happen.
(13:31):
But it's strange.
Joseph (13:38):
It makes me pause does Jeremy Strong have enough
(13:59):
favorability among Academymembers to be sort of a lone
acting nominee?
If he doesn't get any of thetext, he'll be completely by
himself.
To his credit, he is playing areal life figure.
We don't have too many of thosein this category, and so that-.
Jules (14:08):
That helps a lot.
Joseph (14:09):
That helps a lot.
That might be a factor thatputs him through the finish line
, but I think you're right.
I would say most of thosepeople.
I think the one individual thatI would never, ever sleep on is
Stanley Tucci, right.
Jules (14:23):
Yeah, outside of those six contenders, the other people
that to keep an eye on that, Ifeel are much further away from
this group is Stanley Tucci, forConclave, who I think has not
managed to get any nominationbesides maybe possibly the
Critics' Choice I'm not sureBafta Longlist the Bafta
Longlist I know he got cited atthe Australian Academy
(14:47):
International Academy.
And the other person was DenzelWashington, who started off the
year as being what many thoughtwas the favorite for this race.
I thought you and I always wereskeptical because Denzel had
just recently been nominated forMacbeth in 2021.
And, as we discussed in earlierepisodes on this podcast this
(15:07):
season, that always is a factorfor actors, whether when they're
being considered by otheractors for their next nomination
how long ago did I justnominate them, how much time has
passed?
What work have they done inthat amount of time that has
passed?
That goes into their thinkingabout whether or not to include
(15:29):
them on their list, and so Ialways thought it was a little
strange to have DenzelWashington in Gladiator 2,
unless, of course, he was goingto win for the part, which was
still unknown once the moviecame out and was sort of
underperformed critically, andonce the movie was seen, I think
it was clear that he wasn'tgoing to win for this movie.
I think there's some problemswith the way that character is
(15:50):
drawn in the film, which I thinkdon't help his case, and so you
know he's sort of dropped waydown, but you and I saw that
coming from the very beginning.
Um so we weren't surprised bythat, and that's about it.
Um, I thought in a in maybedifferent circumstances, peter
Zarskaard, who's very good inSeptember five, the entire cast
(16:12):
is great.
Uh, we might've had a betteropportunity.
But, um, along with the filmbeing too silent and and that
his part is kind of brief, um,or there isn't a big, you know
sort of flashy quote-unquoteoscar moment in the piece, um,
and that's a similar thing.
That is also true for stanleytucci and conclave.
(16:32):
He's good in his part, theentire ensemble is great, but I
he's sort of competing with therest of the ensemble in that
movie.
Um, all of who do strong work.
I'm not sure that you're goingto come away from the film
thinking that, or it's going tobe unanimous, that majority of
people think that stanley tucciwas the strongest supporting
(16:54):
character in that film.
You're going to have people whohave different favorites.
I think that goes against hiscase and why he hasn't done
better in the race this year.
And that's the opposite ofwhat's happened, what's happened
with Euro.
Most people can come awayfeeling like he is the their
favorite supporting character,supporting actor in that film.
Joseph (17:13):
Yeah.
Jules (17:14):
That's something that I think really hurts Stanley Tucci
and I think is one pivotalreason why he won't break into
that that lineup at the end.
And again, the bafta nomineeswere kieran colkin, guy pierce
euro borosov, edward norton,jeremy strong and clarence
macklin.
The top six, um, the fiveshould come from the top six.
In my opinion and you know,because I feel a certain way
(17:39):
about sebastian stan and theapprentice which we're going to
get into when we get into actormy opinion is that we'll have
the four kieran, edward uh, guyand yura, and that last spot
will be jeremy strong and hewon't be by himself.
Um, and the person that will beleft out is clarence macklin
for sing sing um, I like that.
(18:02):
He's playing a real person andI uh like that.
I I'm predicting that he won'tget in by himself.
And there's also some kind ofstrange sort of pathos aspect to
this film, because you could,the film um works for you to
feel a sense of pity for RoyCohn, which I think is going to
be in his benefit.
(18:22):
And the other thing that is hardfor me to see is I'm not sure
that I'm seeing a list thatincludes both Yura Borisov and
Clarence Macklin.
I think they occupy a similarspace of being actors that are
not very well known.
I think this is ClarenceMacklin's maybe first acting
credit.
It's not Yura.
(18:43):
Yura is a great foreign actor,a Russian actor.
He was absolutely wonderful inCompartment no 6.
But it's certainly the firstsort of wide exposure that he's
had.
So I have a hard time seeing alist that's going to include two
actors that I think occupy asimilar space of invisibility
(19:03):
and actors getting to know themfor the first time.
I like someone a little bitmore known and more familiar.
In that last spot, and since Ifeel that Yura is such a lock or
such a likely nominee, I shouldsay I'm left with Jeremy Strong
, and so those are my fiveKieran Culkin, a Real Pain.
Edward Norton, a CompleteUnknown.
(19:23):
Guy Pearce, the Brutalist.
Euro Borossov, onora.
And Jeremy Strong, theApprentice.
Joseph (19:28):
I think those are my five.
I went five for five with you.
So Kieran Culkin, a Real Pain.
Edward Norton, a CompleteUnknown.
Guy Pearce, the Brutalist.
Jeremy Strong, the Apprentice.
And, despite all my hesitation,you know you're a Borosov for a
Nora, and I think you're right,despite you know Tucci, you
know not getting much traction.
It's still possible, but Iguess he's just getting lost
(19:50):
between everyone else of theensemble, unlike Isabella
Rossellini, who stands out asthe only female in that ensemble
.
Jules (19:58):
And also someone who's never been nominated.
Joseph (19:59):
And someone who's never been nominated, and so that last
spot, the spoiler excuse meshould be Clarence.
Yes, I agree and it could stillhappen if Sing Sing has a great
day.
It's just that every sign ispointing toward it being a
not-so-great day.
Jules (20:13):
Right, he's also my spoiler, Clarence Macklin.
And so that's our dive intoBest Supporting Actor and our
final predictions.
Joseph (20:21):
We're finally by Best Actor.
So let's take a look at BestActor and what we're working
with.
Jules (20:27):
All right.
First let's mention the SAGnominees Adrian Brody for the
Brutalist, rafe Fiennes forConclave, Timothee Chalamet
Complete Unknown Coleman DomingoSing Sing and Daniel Craig for
Queer, and the BAFTA nomineeswere Adrian Brody, ray Fiennes,
timothy Chalamet, colemanDomingo, sebastian Stan for the
Apprentice and Hugh Grant forHeretic.
Joseph (20:54):
And if you look at the long list, the most notable name
not on there is Daniel Craigfor Que, for queer right
previous bafta nominee, by theway.
And you also had def patel formonkey man on the long list, as
well as jude law for firebrandkingsley, benedir for bob marley
one love, and I think that'severyone that bafta had
mentioned right.
Jules (21:13):
and so the daniel craig snub from the baFTA is
indicative, it's evident.
It might be evidentiary.
I mean, however, he had beennominated at the BAFTAs before.
Joseph (21:26):
Yes, something not to lose sight of For James Bond, I
believe.
Jules (21:30):
Yeah, possibly, and he did get that SAG nomination.
Joseph (21:35):
Which, let's face it, if there was one film that we
thought was going to, abhor theSAG committee.
It was going to be queer, andso we were very surprised and
happy to see it included there.
Jules (21:44):
Yeah, we thought the SAG committee would not like that
film.
I think it goes to the strengthof possibly wanting to nominate
Daniel Craig already.
He's an actor who's beenworking for a very long time.
He has a very good performancein queer.
Um, it's certainly, uh, anactor who's stretching himself
in this part.
I think actors will appreciatethat.
Joseph (22:04):
Um, admire that also had a bit of a sort of you know
renaissance with knives out andthat whole franchise at the same
time, sort of saying goodbye tothe james bond franchise.
And then you, he kind of stepsout with this role at Venice
Right.
Jules (22:21):
And the problem with Queer has always been that it
may not be a film that manyvoters are going to possibly
like.
Sit through or sit through.
William S Burroughs doesn'tnecessarily do well with the
Academy either.
David Cronenberg's Naked Lunchdidn't do well with the Academy,
despite being very criticallyacclaimed that year.
So that's always been a worrywith Daniel Craig, and I think
(22:44):
you saw that play out at theBAFTA and I don't think that's a
good sign.
I think most people interpretthat as a bad sign.
Like I said, I think theaudience of that movie is going
to be more limited.
I think what's going to getDaniel Craig over the hump if he
does make it over the hump isthe urge to want to nominate him
(23:04):
.
We also talked about in ourBest Actor episode previously,
if you want to check that out,how unlikely it is that three
actors from A24 show up.
Coleman Domingo is an A24 film,daniel Craig is an A24 film and
Adrian Brody is an A24 filmHeretic too, exactly and Heretic
(23:27):
is as well.
At the SAG all three did showup, which would seem promising
that that could happen at theAcademy.
However, we would urge you topause and Check out our episode.
Joseph (23:39):
Yeah, so he's also by himself too.
He's also by himself.
Jules (23:43):
Never a good thing, never a sure thing.
Going to his benefit is that alot of the other actors who
could replace him are also A24films.
So Sebastian Stan won a goldenglobe for a different man, which
we called and uh, he that'salso an a 24 film.
Hugh Grant, who's donesurprisingly well with
(24:05):
precursors, is an a 24 film.
So it could just be the casethat three a 24, three men from
a 24 films do get in, becausethat's just the majority of
contenders are a 24 film.
Um, but you and I mentioned inour best actor episode that
there is somebody who perfectlyfits the bill to replace one of
the a24 men and is not an a24film and has had a great year
(24:29):
and has a terrific performance,um, that that certainly should
be cited and could be cited, andthat's Sebastian Stan for the
Apprentice, and he did get aBAFTA nomination, which you know
I thought was definitely goingto happen.
He's slowly been climbing thatladder of consensus, right, and
(24:50):
he's playing a real-life figure,right, you know, albeit, you
know, a controversial one andcertainly the timing of it is
very unfortunate, but he'sterrific in that film.
Joseph (25:01):
And it played fantastically overseas
internationally.
I mean it was, I think, morethan $10 million, I think,
overseas.
So I think we're close to that.
So it played like gangbustersto no surprise the British
Academy, Irish voters.
I'm sure it played well inFrance and even in Canada, I
think it played well.
So I think all that is reallygoing for it.
(25:24):
If American voters aren't goingto vote for it, as you saw with
BAFTA when it placed in top 10for best film, international
voters are going to vote for it.
Jules (25:33):
I agree 100% and I would think it's a very worthy nominee
, the caveat being that, in theevent that the Academy and the
Actors Branch wanted to citeSebastian Stan's work without
stepping into those trickywaters of the Apprentice, they
could opt to spotlight him for ADifferent man.
Joseph (25:55):
Which is a Berlin-winning performance.
Jules (25:57):
A Golden Globe-winning performance.
Joseph (25:59):
Yes, Produced by Christine Vachon and about an
actor.
Jules (26:03):
Yes, and so all that's going for it.
What isn't going for it is,again, it doesn't really solve
our A24 problem, right, the onlysince?
We're of the opinion I thinkmost people are that Adrian
Brody, ray Fiennes and TimotheeCh we're of the opinion, I think
most people are, that adrianbrody, ray fines and timothy
chalamet are in locks, basicallyyeah are complete locks.
You really only have two spotsopen, and if you put two way 24
(26:26):
actors, then we're not solvingthe issue.
We already have adrian brody,so there's really should be only
room for one more.
You're going to have to choosebetween Coleman Domingo, daniel
Craig or Sebastian Stan, for adifferent man.
Joseph (26:41):
So we're kind of saying that just the two spots are up
in the air, that those otherspots are locked up, I think,
and I will go even further tosay pardon me that really those
are the six contenders.
That are between those sixExactly.
Well, I would say that Just asa side note.
Probably every other actingcategory has more contenders
(27:03):
than this one and has a littlebit more open spots and leeway,
so this makes this categorypossibly a little less
interesting.
But what I will say in sort ofdefense of that is that this is
a category where it's going tobe very interesting to see who
wins.
Jules (27:19):
Right.
Joseph (27:20):
Those three spots are locked in and, like I said,
we're just guessing the finaltwo and there's not a whole lot
of good people positioned for it.
But when it comes time todeciding the winner, that's
where we're going to have fun.
This is one of the fewcategories where it's going to
be more fun predicting thewinner than predicting the
nominees.
Jules (27:35):
Right, and we went over that a little bit in our actor
episode, so check that out, orour post-Golden Globes episode.
I should say and so check thatout if you get a chance.
So these six contenders, wehave to come up with five, and
the smart call is to not do twoA24 films.
The smart call wouldtechnically be to leave out the
(27:57):
person who's in a film thatstands to not be liked by a
portion of the academy, andthat's daniel craig and queer,
which is very unfortunatebecause he's very good in the
film and certainly deserves amention in this lineup.
That being said, though, singsing, I think, is weaker than
people think well it's.
Joseph (28:18):
It's been shown to be weaker than everyone, right?
Jules (28:21):
right um, but he did get that SAG nomination by himself
right and that BAFTA nomination,which I think people perceive
as being, you know, a good signthat he will definitely get
nominated.
I think he has a good chance,but I would not be surprised at
all.
Joseph (28:35):
I hate the idea that he is running in the same category
back to back and I sort ofquoted a couple of people who
did this and his best comparisonwas Johnny Depp in 2003 to 2004
for Pirates of the Caribbeanand Finding Neverland.
But the prospect of ColemanDomingo getting in to the same
(28:56):
category back to back by himselfis very preoccupying.
It should be very preoccupying.
And I also go ahead and remindyou that Coleman Domingo, who's
a very versatile actor and afantastic actor, and he was
going to win at some point he isgoing to be playing Michael
Jackson's father in the recentfuture, in the upcoming future,
(29:19):
and so the prospect of ColemanDomingo being nominated three
years in a row, if he getsnominated this year, is very
real.
And again, someone who did thatis someone like renee zellweger
, on her way to that eventualwin, to cold mountain right, but
again she was.
She did it with bridget jones ina screenplay movie right.
She did it with chicago and abest picture movie.
(29:41):
And she did it in cold mountainwhere she got in with her
co-star jude law and a couple ofother nominations.
So sing sing is really holdingon desperately to that adapted
screenplay nomination.
But imagine if it doesn't getan eye for adapted screenplay.
Coleman's chances, I think, areshakier than most people give
him credit for yeah, I 100 agreewith%.
Jules (30:00):
Agree with that.
I think again, what's going forhim is that maybe his biggest
competition is someone likeDaniel Craig in Queer.
But other than that, I reallydon't think Hugh Grant's going
to happen for Heretic.
I don't think it's.
Joseph (30:14):
Again by himself, right by himself.
Jules (30:17):
You know it's not a genre that I think has the easiest
time getting into these leadacting categories.
Although we are seeing it thisyear happen with Demi Moore for
the Substance, I doubt ithappens for both lead, for both
leads.
Joseph (30:29):
Yeah, exactly how.
How far can they stretch thatgenre bias?
Jules (30:32):
And so we're really talking about those six actors
and it's really a toss up.
You know, would I be surprisedto see Sebastian Stan make it in
for a different man becausethey opted to not want to
support Donald Trump or just thecharacter, the person of Donald
Trump in this lineup?
I can't see it, but I thinkit's unlikely because I think
(30:55):
the foreign block of the Academy, the Actors Branch, will
support that performance.
Joseph (31:01):
They're going to take it as an opportunity to shove it
down his throat.
Jules (31:03):
Yeah and I think they're going to um get him in here and
I think it's a very worthy uh,worthy intentions and worthy
nomination um my only questionreally is again he just has such
a perfect other film because itwon berlin, so some of those
voters saw it there.
Joseph (31:22):
He's with or not to ryan's, so it certainly has
gonna appeal to internationalvoters.
Adam is from uk, I believe.
So, like I said, what Idefinitely feel confident in is
in this lineup we will see asebastian stan spot.
Jules (31:35):
Yeah, there's only one spot now some people argue and I
guess it's worth contemplating,that maybe he was left off the
SAG list not necessarily becausethey were, you know,
trepidatious of mentioning himfor the Apprentice, but rather
that he sort of vote split withthe Apprentice and A Different
man, and I think that's apossibility.
(31:56):
I think hurting that as apossibility is that if that were
to happen again, we're leftwith three, 24 actors.
Joseph (32:03):
I mean, I would never have thought that a different
man was going to be a film thatappeals to SAG.
But I would have said the samething about queer too, and it
did show up there, right.
Jules (32:12):
So I think that is a real thing, that can happen and the
uh SAG can go five for five.
I think that can happen.
I don't think it's outside therealm of possibility.
But I feel that Sebastian Stanhad such a great year and he's
in two good films.
One is a great film, aDifferent man and he gives two
very good performances.
(32:32):
One, in my opinion, is a greatperformance in the Apprentice,
and so I really feel like actorsare going to want to spotlight
that.
Joseph (32:40):
He just sort of deserves it, and we've talked about
again that cycle and so he's,you know, put in the work in
franchises like Marvel, but he'sput in the work on TV too.
But he was sort of introducedto the Academy already in the.
Academy Award winning film ITonya.
So it's really you know histime.
Jules (32:55):
Yeah, I agree, and so I think he's going to happen.
And so, outside of those fourin my last spot, it's really
tough.
I hate making this decisionbecause I'd love to see Daniel
Craig in here for queer, but I'mgoing to say that Daniel Craig
gets left off and ColemanDomingo gets in for Sing Sing,
(33:24):
partly aided by the fact thathe's playing a real life figure,
maybe not a notoriouslywell-known figure, but it's
still someone real and certainlya film whose message the
Academy would want to championwith a nomination.
So that's what I'm thinkingright now.
My spoiler is definitely DanielCraig.
Joseph (33:39):
I think we see things a lot alike.
So of course you have yourthree locks Chalamet, Fiennes
and Brody, I think.
In fourth is the Sebastian Stanslot, and I think the advantage
has to go to the film with hisco-star, I believe, going to be
nominated for playing Roy Cohnand I think a potential makeup
(33:59):
nomination, even though adifferent man is listed there as
well.
So he wouldn't be by himself Ifyou decide for a different man
either way a different man makesthat list and it's looking
pretty good too, but I'm goingto go ahead and do the bio thing
and put him in for theApprentice as well.
And then my fifth spot.
You know, I totally see whereyou're going with that, but I
(34:22):
really think it's going to be anall newbie list and they're
going to give it to Daniel Craig.
I just think he's putting inenough work again.
Saying goodbye to bond, doingthe knives out thing, of course,
hugh Grant, there is a reminderto me, sort of that they're not
going to nominate you untilthey feel that they have to
nominate you.
You know Hugh Grant should havebeen in for Flores, foster
Jenkins could have been in forPaddington 2, could have been in
(34:43):
for About a Boy, but they'rejust going to wait for Hugh
Grant to be in the perfect movie, I think, and so that logic
would work against Daniel Craig,and it makes more sense to put
Coleman Domingo being able to goback-to-back nominations in the
same category.
He has so many interesting,noteworthy projects coming out
(35:06):
in the recent future.
So with that, I would probablysay that Coleman Domingo can't
break that streak.
He can't go double like TomHanks or Cameron Crowe or Rene
Zorger.
He won't be able to do it, andso I'm going to put Koma Domingo
as my spoiler.
Jules (35:23):
Okay, perfect, and that's our recap of our final
predictions for Best Actor.
All right, thanks for tuning in.
I'm Jules and I'm Joseph, andit's been a pleasure.
The music on this episodeentitled Cool Cats was
graciously provided by KevinMcLeod and Incompetechcom,
(35:48):
licensed under Creative Commons.
Joseph (35:50):
Buy forward, slash 3.0 disclaimer the academy anonymous
(36:11):
podcast is in no way affiliatedor endorsed by the academy of
motion picture arts and sciences.
hey, welcome back to academy, anonymous, I'm jules
and I'm joseph and we'recontinuing our excursion of the
oscar race, our finalpredictions for the Oscars.
Oscar nomination morning iscoming up and we've already
transitioned into above the lineand we're going to do right now
the acting categories.
So let's jump right into bestsupporting actor.
This is a very sort ofconsolidated group.
(00:38):
I think the race is really upto, or comes down to, six
contenders.
If I'm being candid, I thinkthat you know, possibly we want
to be generous, maybe eight,seven, eight contenders, but I
think the top six are the topsix and it's really a question
of who gets that.
That last spot, in my opinion.
(01:00):
But let's go over.
The screen actors guildreleased their nominations and
the Screen Actors Guildnomination is probably the most
important nomination that anactor can get in this award
circuit.
There is overlap between theAcademy and the Screen Actors
Guild.
However, the Screen ActorsGuild nominees are determined by
a committee, which is importantto remember.
(01:22):
We don't know exactly who'spart of the committee, but
certainly you can bet thatthere's a portion that are part
of the committee that arepossibly not Academy members.
However, they are a very usefultool, I believe, for actors or
we believe for actors to use asa guide as to what films to put
on what screeners to watch andwhat films to consider for
(01:46):
acting yeah and acting is thebiggest voting block in the
academy, so the screen actorsguild is one is probably the
best thing that you can get butdo keep in mind that that screen
actors, guild committee andmembers at large of the sag.
Joseph (02:01):
They now do include things like radio artists and
artists for other different typeof vocal work or work where
they're selling theirpersonality and their face.
This is not the case for theAcademy.
For the Academy, you have tohave film credits in order to
get in there, and not just filmcredits but a certain type of
film standing.
You have to be invited.
(02:22):
That can be the differencemaker between some people making
it in and some people beingleft off.
Jules (02:29):
We've certainly seen a transition of let's call it the
SAGs becoming a little bit morepopulist.
Yeah, you saw that really playout, I believe in 2021, when
House of Gucci managed anensemble nomination a nomination
for Lady Gaga and a nominationfor Jared Leto and that movie
got close to blank at the Oscarsand just managed a makeup
(02:49):
nomination, so there's aninclusion in this group recently
that, I think, makes thenominations a little bit more
lacking the security they usedto have.
That being said, they do do verywell with winners.
I think their influence in thatregard has increased.
(03:09):
So if you win a SAG, thelikelihood of you winning the
Oscar is very big, and so Ithink that's different as well.
However, just don't lose sightthat the committee that's voting
for these nominees is not thesame committee that was voting
for them 10 years ago.
Joseph (03:28):
Right.
Jules (03:29):
And that's important to keep in mind as we try to maybe
possibly make a division betweenthe SAG voter and the Academy
Award voter.
Joseph (03:40):
Yeah.
Jules (03:41):
They're not necessarily synonymous, and so in the best
supporting actor category, thesag's nominated kieran colkin a
real pain who's a huge favoriteto win.
You are boris of anora, who'sdone incredibly well and managed
to get nominated at all themain precursors the golden globe
, the sag and the bafta.
I believe he won some importantcritical awards as well, and
(04:02):
that has been sort of a surprisehow well he's done, considering
that that film is very, youknow, it's an ensemble piece
opposite Mikey Madison, who isthe central figure, and
initially I thought that thefilm would have a hard time
differentiating its differentsupporting characters because
(04:24):
they all have a spotlight andthey all do really well.
But that film certainly leavesenough room for an actor like
Yura Borisov to shine.
The film really goes out of itsway to spotlight that character
, to really shape that character.
He has really lingering,memorable moments.
So in a way it's not surprisingthat he's done as well as he's
(04:45):
done, but still somewhatsurprising.
Joseph (04:49):
Yeah, I agree.
Jules (04:50):
The SAG nomination, I think was huge, and the BAFTA
nomination was huge, and so Ithink Jura is pretty much locked
for a nomination, if you wantme to be completely honest in my
opinion.
And then someone that I thinkis completely locked is Edward
Norton, for a complete unknown.
He's playing a real life figure.
These kinds of actingcategories tend to favor actors
(05:12):
playing real people, realhistorical figures.
Um, that you know of, thatyou've read, of that you've uh,
been aware of.
Um, he's playing Pete Seeger.
He's playing Pete Seeger.
He's playing Pete Seeger.
He does a really great job inthe role.
(05:32):
You can certainly see votersattracted to his work.
Joseph (05:37):
He does his own singing he does his own singing as well.
Jules (05:41):
He's an actor's actor.
He's going to reap severalnominations.
He already has, I believe,three or four.
Joseph (05:48):
Yeah.
Jules (05:49):
Watch out for him to be a favorite to spoil Kieran Culkin
possibly.
Joseph (05:54):
And he's the vet here too.
Jules (05:55):
He's the veteran.
Like I said, we need, we shouldhave a veteran, at least one
veteran, in every category, andso Edward.
And so Edward Norton is lockedand loaded.
Jeremy Strong was nominated atthe SAG for the Apprentice,
which was a surprise inclusion,but if you've seen the movie
it's not that surprising.
It's a very showy role.
Jeremy Strong does a great job.
The Apprentice as a whole, Ithink, stands to surprise a lot
(06:17):
of people.
Joseph (06:18):
What was surprising was that he was listed at SAG
without Sebastian Stan.
Jules (06:24):
That was a little surprising, but we'll get into
that when we get into actor,because there's aspects of that
snub that are not as surprising.
Joseph (06:30):
But maybe he has enough of a reputation and enough
experience and enough of afilmography to survive sort of
as a lone nominee.
It could be.
Jules (06:41):
It could be.
In any regard, I think he's ina very good position to land a
nomination.
I won't call him a lock yeah infact, I could even go so far as
to say that in my predictedfive, if there were to be a miss
, I would imagine it to bejeremy strong, but we'll get to
that in a minute.
And the last nominee was a verysurprising inclusion of
jonathan baileyicked.
(07:01):
You know, I really am notthinking of Jonathan Bailey as a
contender for this race.
Joseph (07:09):
Not very viable right now.
Jules (07:10):
No, I think, if anything, the Jonathan Bailey nomination
certainly shows that the SAGcommittee was very enamored with
Wicked.
Yes, but the fact that JonathanBailey has missed almost
everywhere else sort of feels alittle bit, dare I say,
indulgent of this uh awards bodyI really thought that were
(07:31):
wicked to be a huge popularchoice.
Joseph (07:33):
At the sag, the individual to read this
nomination and possibly steal aspot was goldblum right?
Jules (07:39):
who's never been nominated?
Who has?
Joseph (07:40):
never been nominated and he's jeff goldblum, right.
But the fact that it's jonathanbailey Bailey over Jeff
Goldblum and the committee sawthem both because they're in the
same movie has me thinking thatthe Jonathan Bailey isn't just
not much of a tried and truecontender to reap a spot here,
but that there's possibly sortof a red herring McGovern, as
(08:01):
Hitchcock would say, with thedominance that Wicked had at
this awards group the fact thatit got those five nominations
four without stunt, but one ofthem is Jonathan Bailey.
There's got to be somethingthere where you sort of start to
pump the brakes and say, well,how popular can Wicked really be
at any of the other places?
Jules (08:23):
jonathan bailey, for example and we'll get into it
didn't even make the bafta longlist right, exactly, and he's
british and he's british, um,and so that's something that
goes along with what we weresaying at the beginning of this
segment that there's a populismto this voting body, to this, to
this committee, thesecommittees that have been chosen
as of late, that I hesitate tobe 100% sure that the Academy
(08:50):
feels exactly the same way, andWicked Landing more nominations
than people would think seemslike an example of that.
I thought that was a littlestrange.
That being said, he's the fifthnominee.
I thought that was a littlestrange.
That being said, he's the fifthnominee, and so, of those five,
I think those four are verystrong contenders.
(09:13):
People who didn't make the list,surprisingly, were Clarence
Macklin for Sing Sing.
In fact, sing Sing did very poorat the SAG.
I had expected it to do a lotbetter.
It only landed on a nominationfor Coleman colman domingo,
which is a vulnerable candidate,and we'll get to that when we
talk about this actor, clarencemacklin, missing here, when
someone like ira borosov, who'sprobably an actor that not many
(09:35):
people in the not many actors inthe committee and in the uh
actors union are very well arevery aware of him making it on
here over, someone like ClarenceMacklin, to me, is a big uh
sign, um, as uh, in terms ofwhich, uh, newbie quote unquote
is more uh favored Um.
So I always had my doubts aboutClarence Macklin, especially
(09:59):
knowing that he stood a chanceto be a part of the writing
credit, uh, the writing teamthat gets a nomination for
screenplay.
If that were to happen, thesnub here is really attention
calling to me.
Really there's no reason why,if colman domingo is present at
least, even if there's no bestpicture, best ensemble
nomination, if he's present,colman domingo, there's really
(10:20):
no excuse to not have macklin onthis list.
Joseph (10:23):
He's not on it and Very odd, very odd to be seeing again
five nominations for Wicked,including Jonathan Bailey, and
one nomination for Sing Singonly for Coleman Domingo Right,
very odd.
Jules (10:36):
Yeah, and the other thing I will say is the biggest snub
here was Guy Pearce, for theBrutalist.
Guy Pearce is one of ourgreatest actors who has,
shockingly, never been nominatedfor an Oscar.
I think that goes a long wayinto positioning him as a strong
candidate for the Oscar lineupfor Best Supporting Actor.
That being said, I did predictthat he would get snubbed from
(10:59):
the Best Supporting Actor lineup.
He's the antagonist of thatmovie, he's the villainous part
part in that movie and I wasn'tsure how much the committee,
which I think again, tends tofavor things a little bit more
what's the right word I don'twant to say safe, but certainly
things that are a little bitmore accessible.
I always had an idea thatactors in that committee, um,
(11:22):
would feel a little bit, youknow more, would feel distant
with the piece of the Brutalistyeah alienated.
And that's what happened.
He got snubbed.
But I don't expect Guy Pearceto get snubbed in the Brutalist.
In fact, his snub at the SAGand Felicity Jones snub reminded
me a lot of the Master and AmyAdams snub and Joaquin Phoenix's
(11:46):
snub.
But uh, philip Seymour Hoffmanstill managed to get a
nomination.
Similarly, adrian Brody has anomination too at the SAG.
So I think Guy Pearce somepeople are tempted right now to
sort of jump ship because hedidn't make the SAG, but he
didn't make the SAG overJonathan Bailey.
That's too extreme.
You know that has to tell yousomething that you know.
(12:06):
That's a weird sort of thingthat occurred there.
He has the BAFTA nomination.
Joseph (12:13):
Yeah, which is the most important thing, he had the
BAFTA bounce back.
So if you miss this list andyou're already referencing some
people when you start listingthe individuals who got into the
BAFTA.
Those individuals of a BAFTAbounce back are still in a very
good spot.
Jules (12:27):
Correct, and so I think Guy Pearce is still really,
really strong.
I really positioned him onlybeneath Kieran Culkin and Edward
Norton, to be honest, and so,in my humble opinion, those are
the six actors to look at tomake this race, to make this
(12:47):
lineup, and it's really aquestion as to will Jeremy
Strong get snubbed from BestSupporting Actor for someone
like Clarence Macklin in SingSing?
And the reason I bring upJeremy Strong is because there's
still something about this listthat includes Kieran Culkin
that maybe sits a little weirdfor me.
(13:08):
I'm not 100% positive,considering how well known they
both are for Succession, howvoters are going to feel by
including them both in the samecategory, both in the same
category so soon afterSuccession.
I'm just not sure that I 100%feel that it's going to happen.
(13:31):
But it's strange.
Joseph (13:38):
It makes me pause does Jeremy Strong have enough
(13:59):
favorability among Academymembers to be sort of a lone
acting nominee?
If he doesn't get any of thetext, he'll be completely by
himself.
To his credit, he is playing areal life figure.
We don't have too many of thosein this category, and so that-.
Jules (14:08):
That helps a lot.
Joseph (14:09):
That helps a lot.
That might be a factor thatputs him through the finish line
, but I think you're right.
I would say most of thosepeople.
I think the one individual thatI would never, ever sleep on is
Stanley Tucci, right.
Jules (14:23):
Yeah, outside of those six contenders, the other people
that to keep an eye on that, Ifeel are much further away from
this group is Stanley Tucci, forConclave, who I think has not
managed to get any nominationbesides maybe possibly the
Critics' Choice I'm not sureBafta Longlist the Bafta
Longlist I know he got cited atthe Australian Academy
(14:47):
International Academy.
And the other person was DenzelWashington, who started off the
year as being what many thoughtwas the favorite for this race.
I thought you and I always wereskeptical because Denzel had
just recently been nominated forMacbeth in 2021.
And, as we discussed in earlierepisodes on this podcast this
(15:07):
season, that always is a factorfor actors, whether when they're
being considered by otheractors for their next nomination
how long ago did I justnominate them, how much time has
passed?
What work have they done inthat amount of time that has
passed?
That goes into their thinkingabout whether or not to include
(15:29):
them on their list, and so Ialways thought it was a little
strange to have DenzelWashington in Gladiator 2,
unless, of course, he was goingto win for the part, which was
still unknown once the moviecame out and was sort of
underperformed critically, andonce the movie was seen, I think
it was clear that he wasn'tgoing to win for this movie.
I think there's some problemswith the way that character is
(15:50):
drawn in the film, which I thinkdon't help his case, and so you
know he's sort of dropped waydown, but you and I saw that
coming from the very beginning.
Um so we weren't surprised bythat, and that's about it.
Um, I thought in a in maybedifferent circumstances, peter
Zarskaard, who's very good inSeptember five, the entire cast
(16:12):
is great.
Uh, we might've had a betteropportunity.
But, um, along with the filmbeing too silent and and that
his part is kind of brief, um,or there isn't a big, you know
sort of flashy quote-unquoteoscar moment in the piece, um,
and that's a similar thing.
That is also true for stanleytucci and conclave.
(16:32):
He's good in his part, theentire ensemble is great, but I
he's sort of competing with therest of the ensemble in that
movie.
Um, all of who do strong work.
I'm not sure that you're goingto come away from the film
thinking that, or it's going tobe unanimous, that majority of
people think that stanley tucciwas the strongest supporting
(16:54):
character in that film.
You're going to have people whohave different favorites.
I think that goes against hiscase and why he hasn't done
better in the race this year.
And that's the opposite ofwhat's happened, what's happened
with Euro.
Most people can come awayfeeling like he is the their
favorite supporting character,supporting actor in that film.
Joseph (17:13):
Yeah.
Jules (17:14):
That's something that I think really hurts Stanley Tucci
and I think is one pivotalreason why he won't break into
that that lineup at the end.
And again, the bafta nomineeswere kieran colkin, guy pierce
euro borosov, edward norton,jeremy strong and clarence
macklin.
The top six, um, the fiveshould come from the top six.
In my opinion and you know,because I feel a certain way
(17:39):
about sebastian stan and theapprentice which we're going to
get into when we get into actormy opinion is that we'll have
the four kieran, edward uh, guyand yura, and that last spot
will be jeremy strong and hewon't be by himself.
Um, and the person that will beleft out is clarence macklin
for sing sing um, I like that.
(18:02):
He's playing a real person andI uh like that.
I I'm predicting that he won'tget in by himself.
And there's also some kind ofstrange sort of pathos aspect to
this film, because you could,the film um works for you to
feel a sense of pity for RoyCohn, which I think is going to
be in his benefit.
(18:22):
And the other thing that is hardfor me to see is I'm not sure
that I'm seeing a list thatincludes both Yura Borisov and
Clarence Macklin.
I think they occupy a similarspace of being actors that are
not very well known.
I think this is ClarenceMacklin's maybe first acting
credit.
It's not Yura.
(18:43):
Yura is a great foreign actor,a Russian actor.
He was absolutely wonderful inCompartment no 6.
But it's certainly the firstsort of wide exposure that he's
had.
So I have a hard time seeing alist that's going to include two
actors that I think occupy asimilar space of invisibility
(19:03):
and actors getting to know themfor the first time.
I like someone a little bitmore known and more familiar.
In that last spot, and since Ifeel that Yura is such a lock or
such a likely nominee, I shouldsay I'm left with Jeremy Strong
, and so those are my fiveKieran Culkin, a Real Pain.
Edward Norton, a CompleteUnknown.
(19:23):
Guy Pearce, the Brutalist.
Euro Borossov, onora.
And Jeremy Strong, theApprentice.
Joseph (19:28):
I think those are my five.
I went five for five with you.
So Kieran Culkin, a Real Pain.
Edward Norton, a CompleteUnknown.
Guy Pearce, the Brutalist.
Jeremy Strong, the Apprentice.
And, despite all my hesitation,you know you're a Borosov for a
Nora, and I think you're right,despite you know Tucci, you
know not getting much traction.
It's still possible, but Iguess he's just getting lost
(19:50):
between everyone else of theensemble, unlike Isabella
Rossellini, who stands out asthe only female in that ensemble
.
Jules (19:58):
And also someone who's never been nominated.
Joseph (19:59):
And someone who's never been nominated, and so that last
spot, the spoiler excuse meshould be Clarence.
Yes, I agree and it could stillhappen if Sing Sing has a great
day.
It's just that every sign ispointing toward it being a
not-so-great day.
Jules (20:13):
Right, he's also my spoiler, Clarence Macklin.
And so that's our dive intoBest Supporting Actor and our
final predictions.
Joseph (20:21):
We're finally by Best Actor.
So let's take a look at BestActor and what we're working
with.
Jules (20:27):
All right.
First let's mention the SAGnominees Adrian Brody for the
Brutalist, rafe Fiennes forConclave, Timothee Chalamet
Complete Unknown Coleman DomingoSing Sing and Daniel Craig for
Queer, and the BAFTA nomineeswere Adrian Brody, ray Fiennes,
timothy Chalamet, colemanDomingo, sebastian Stan for the
Apprentice and Hugh Grant forHeretic.
Joseph (20:54):
And if you look at the long list, the most notable name
not on there is Daniel Craigfor Que, for queer right
previous bafta nominee, by theway.
And you also had def patel formonkey man on the long list, as
well as jude law for firebrandkingsley, benedir for bob marley
one love, and I think that'severyone that bafta had
mentioned right.
Jules (21:13):
and so the daniel craig snub from the baFTA is
indicative, it's evident.
It might be evidentiary.
I mean, however, he had beennominated at the BAFTAs before.
Joseph (21:26):
Yes, something not to lose sight of For James Bond, I
believe.
Jules (21:30):
Yeah, possibly, and he did get that SAG nomination.
Joseph (21:35):
Which, let's face it, if there was one film that we
thought was going to, abhor theSAG committee.
It was going to be queer, andso we were very surprised and
happy to see it included there.
Jules (21:44):
Yeah, we thought the SAG committee would not like that
film.
I think it goes to the strengthof possibly wanting to nominate
Daniel Craig already.
He's an actor who's beenworking for a very long time.
He has a very good performancein queer.
Um, it's certainly, uh, anactor who's stretching himself
in this part.
I think actors will appreciatethat.
Joseph (22:04):
Um, admire that also had a bit of a sort of you know
renaissance with knives out andthat whole franchise at the same
time, sort of saying goodbye tothe james bond franchise.
And then you, he kind of stepsout with this role at Venice
Right.
Jules (22:21):
And the problem with Queer has always been that it
may not be a film that manyvoters are going to possibly
like.
Sit through or sit through.
William S Burroughs doesn'tnecessarily do well with the
Academy either.
David Cronenberg's Naked Lunchdidn't do well with the Academy,
despite being very criticallyacclaimed that year.
So that's always been a worrywith Daniel Craig, and I think
(22:44):
you saw that play out at theBAFTA and I don't think that's a
good sign.
I think most people interpretthat as a bad sign.
Like I said, I think theaudience of that movie is going
to be more limited.
I think what's going to getDaniel Craig over the hump if he
does make it over the hump isthe urge to want to nominate him
(23:04):
.
We also talked about in ourBest Actor episode previously,
if you want to check that out,how unlikely it is that three
actors from A24 show up.
Coleman Domingo is an A24 film,daniel Craig is an A24 film and
Adrian Brody is an A24 filmHeretic too, exactly and Heretic
(23:27):
is as well.
At the SAG all three did showup, which would seem promising
that that could happen at theAcademy.
However, we would urge you topause and Check out our episode.
Joseph (23:39):
Yeah, so he's also by himself too.
He's also by himself.
Jules (23:43):
Never a good thing, never a sure thing.
Going to his benefit is that alot of the other actors who
could replace him are also A24films.
So Sebastian Stan won a goldenglobe for a different man, which
we called and uh, he that'salso an a 24 film.
Hugh Grant, who's donesurprisingly well with
(24:05):
precursors, is an a 24 film.
So it could just be the casethat three a 24, three men from
a 24 films do get in, becausethat's just the majority of
contenders are a 24 film.
Um, but you and I mentioned inour best actor episode that
there is somebody who perfectlyfits the bill to replace one of
the a24 men and is not an a24film and has had a great year
(24:29):
and has a terrific performance,um, that that certainly should
be cited and could be cited, andthat's Sebastian Stan for the
Apprentice, and he did get aBAFTA nomination, which you know
I thought was definitely goingto happen.
He's slowly been climbing thatladder of consensus, right, and
(24:50):
he's playing a real-life figure,right, you know, albeit, you
know, a controversial one andcertainly the timing of it is
very unfortunate, but he'sterrific in that film.
Joseph (25:01):
And it played fantastically overseas
internationally.
I mean it was, I think, morethan $10 million, I think,
overseas.
So I think we're close to that.
So it played like gangbustersto no surprise the British
Academy, Irish voters.
I'm sure it played well inFrance and even in Canada, I
think it played well.
So I think all that is reallygoing for it.
(25:24):
If American voters aren't goingto vote for it, as you saw with
BAFTA when it placed in top 10for best film, international
voters are going to vote for it.
Jules (25:33):
I agree 100% and I would think it's a very worthy nominee
, the caveat being that, in theevent that the Academy and the
Actors Branch wanted to citeSebastian Stan's work without
stepping into those trickywaters of the Apprentice, they
could opt to spotlight him for ADifferent man.
Joseph (25:55):
Which is a Berlin-winning performance.
Jules (25:57):
A Golden Globe-winning performance.
Joseph (25:59):
Yes, Produced by Christine Vachon and about an
actor.
Jules (26:03):
Yes, and so all that's going for it.
What isn't going for it is,again, it doesn't really solve
our A24 problem, right, the onlysince?
We're of the opinion I thinkmost people are that Adrian
Brody, ray Fiennes and TimotheeCh we're of the opinion, I think
most people are, that adrianbrody, ray fines and timothy
chalamet are in locks, basicallyyeah are complete locks.
You really only have two spotsopen, and if you put two way 24
(26:26):
actors, then we're not solvingthe issue.
We already have adrian brody,so there's really should be only
room for one more.
You're going to have to choosebetween Coleman Domingo, daniel
Craig or Sebastian Stan, for adifferent man.
Joseph (26:41):
So we're kind of saying that just the two spots are up
in the air, that those otherspots are locked up, I think,
and I will go even further tosay pardon me that really those
are the six contenders.
That are between those sixExactly.
Well, I would say that Just asa side note.
Probably every other actingcategory has more contenders
(27:03):
than this one and has a littlebit more open spots and leeway,
so this makes this categorypossibly a little less
interesting.
But what I will say in sort ofdefense of that is that this is
a category where it's going tobe very interesting to see who
wins.
Jules (27:19):
Right.
Joseph (27:20):
Those three spots are locked in and, like I said,
we're just guessing the finaltwo and there's not a whole lot
of good people positioned for it.
But when it comes time todeciding the winner, that's
where we're going to have fun.
This is one of the fewcategories where it's going to
be more fun predicting thewinner than predicting the
nominees.
Jules (27:35):
Right, and we went over that a little bit in our actor
episode, so check that out, orour post-Golden Globes episode.
I should say and so check thatout if you get a chance.
So these six contenders, wehave to come up with five, and
the smart call is to not do twoA24 films.
The smart call wouldtechnically be to leave out the
(27:57):
person who's in a film thatstands to not be liked by a
portion of the academy, andthat's daniel craig and queer,
which is very unfortunatebecause he's very good in the
film and certainly deserves amention in this lineup.
That being said, though, singsing, I think, is weaker than
people think well it's.
Joseph (28:18):
It's been shown to be weaker than everyone, right?
Jules (28:21):
right um, but he did get that SAG nomination by himself
right and that BAFTA nomination,which I think people perceive
as being, you know, a good signthat he will definitely get
nominated.
I think he has a good chance,but I would not be surprised at
all.
Joseph (28:35):
I hate the idea that he is running in the same category
back to back and I sort ofquoted a couple of people who
did this and his best comparisonwas Johnny Depp in 2003 to 2004
for Pirates of the Caribbeanand Finding Neverland.
But the prospect of ColemanDomingo getting in to the same
(28:56):
category back to back by himselfis very preoccupying.
It should be very preoccupying.
And I also go ahead and remindyou that Coleman Domingo, who's
a very versatile actor and afantastic actor, and he was
going to win at some point he isgoing to be playing Michael
Jackson's father in the recentfuture, in the upcoming future,
(29:19):
and so the prospect of ColemanDomingo being nominated three
years in a row, if he getsnominated this year, is very
real.
And again, someone who did thatis someone like renee zellweger
, on her way to that eventualwin, to cold mountain right, but
again she was.
She did it with bridget jones ina screenplay movie right.
She did it with chicago and abest picture movie.
(29:41):
And she did it in cold mountainwhere she got in with her
co-star jude law and a couple ofother nominations.
So sing sing is really holdingon desperately to that adapted
screenplay nomination.
But imagine if it doesn't getan eye for adapted screenplay.
Coleman's chances, I think, areshakier than most people give
him credit for yeah, I 100 agreewith%.
Jules (30:00):
Agree with that.
I think again, what's going forhim is that maybe his biggest
competition is someone likeDaniel Craig in Queer.
But other than that, I reallydon't think Hugh Grant's going
to happen for Heretic.
I don't think it's.
Joseph (30:14):
Again by himself, right by himself.
Jules (30:17):
You know it's not a genre that I think has the easiest
time getting into these leadacting categories.
Although we are seeing it thisyear happen with Demi Moore for
the Substance, I doubt ithappens for both lead, for both
leads.
Joseph (30:29):
Yeah, exactly how.
How far can they stretch thatgenre bias?
Jules (30:32):
And so we're really talking about those six actors
and it's really a toss up.
You know, would I be surprisedto see Sebastian Stan make it in
for a different man becausethey opted to not want to
support Donald Trump or just thecharacter, the person of Donald
Trump in this lineup?
I can't see it, but I thinkit's unlikely because I think
(30:55):
the foreign block of the Academy, the Actors Branch, will
support that performance.
Joseph (31:01):
They're going to take it as an opportunity to shove it
down his throat.
Jules (31:03):
Yeah and I think they're going to um get him in here and
I think it's a very worthy uh,worthy intentions and worthy
nomination um my only questionreally is again he just has such
a perfect other film because itwon berlin, so some of those
voters saw it there.
Joseph (31:22):
He's with or not to ryan's, so it certainly has
gonna appeal to internationalvoters.
Adam is from uk, I believe.
So, like I said, what Idefinitely feel confident in is
in this lineup we will see asebastian stan spot.
Jules (31:35):
Yeah, there's only one spot now some people argue and I
guess it's worth contemplating,that maybe he was left off the
SAG list not necessarily becausethey were, you know,
trepidatious of mentioning himfor the Apprentice, but rather
that he sort of vote split withthe Apprentice and A Different
man, and I think that's apossibility.
(31:56):
I think hurting that as apossibility is that if that were
to happen again, we're leftwith three, 24 actors.
Joseph (32:03):
I mean, I would never have thought that a different
man was going to be a film thatappeals to SAG.
But I would have said the samething about queer too, and it
did show up there, right.
Jules (32:12):
So I think that is a real thing, that can happen and the
uh SAG can go five for five.
I think that can happen.
I don't think it's outside therealm of possibility.
But I feel that Sebastian Stanhad such a great year and he's
in two good films.
One is a great film, aDifferent man and he gives two
very good performances.
(32:32):
One, in my opinion, is a greatperformance in the Apprentice,
and so I really feel like actorsare going to want to spotlight
that.
Joseph (32:40):
He just sort of deserves it, and we've talked about
again that cycle and so he's,you know, put in the work in
franchises like Marvel, but he'sput in the work on TV too.
But he was sort of introducedto the Academy already in the.
Academy Award winning film ITonya.
So it's really you know histime.
Jules (32:55):
Yeah, I agree, and so I think he's going to happen.
And so, outside of those fourin my last spot, it's really
tough.
I hate making this decisionbecause I'd love to see Daniel
Craig in here for queer, but I'mgoing to say that Daniel Craig
gets left off and ColemanDomingo gets in for Sing Sing,
(33:24):
partly aided by the fact thathe's playing a real life figure,
maybe not a notoriouslywell-known figure, but it's
still someone real and certainlya film whose message the
Academy would want to championwith a nomination.
So that's what I'm thinkingright now.
My spoiler is definitely DanielCraig.
Joseph (33:39):
I think we see things a lot alike.
So of course you have yourthree locks Chalamet, Fiennes
and Brody, I think.
In fourth is the Sebastian Stanslot, and I think the advantage
has to go to the film with hisco-star, I believe, going to be
nominated for playing Roy Cohnand I think a potential makeup
(33:59):
nomination, even though adifferent man is listed there as
well.
So he wouldn't be by himself Ifyou decide for a different man
either way a different man makesthat list and it's looking
pretty good too, but I'm goingto go ahead and do the bio thing
and put him in for theApprentice as well.
And then my fifth spot.
You know, I totally see whereyou're going with that, but I
(34:22):
really think it's going to be anall newbie list and they're
going to give it to Daniel Craig.
I just think he's putting inenough work again.
Saying goodbye to bond, doingthe knives out thing, of course,
hugh Grant, there is a reminderto me, sort of that they're not
going to nominate you untilthey feel that they have to
nominate you.
You know Hugh Grant should havebeen in for Flores, foster
Jenkins could have been in forPaddington 2, could have been in
(34:43):
for About a Boy, but they'rejust going to wait for Hugh
Grant to be in the perfect movie, I think, and so that logic
would work against Daniel Craig,and it makes more sense to put
Coleman Domingo being able to goback-to-back nominations in the
same category.
He has so many interesting,noteworthy projects coming out
(35:06):
in the recent future.
So with that, I would probablysay that Coleman Domingo can't
break that streak.
He can't go double like TomHanks or Cameron Crowe or Rene
Zorger.
He won't be able to do it, andso I'm going to put Koma Domingo
as my spoiler.
Jules (35:23):
Okay, perfect, and that's our recap of our final
predictions for Best Actor.
All right, thanks for tuning in.
I'm Jules and I'm Joseph, andit's been a pleasure.
The music on this episodeentitled Cool Cats was
graciously provided by KevinMcLeod and Incompetechcom,
(35:48):
licensed under Creative Commons.
Joseph (35:50):
Buy forward, slash 3.0 disclaimer the academy anonymous
(36:11):
podcast is in no way affiliatedor endorsed by the academy of
motion picture arts and sciences.
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