On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:
- The “Best” Best Actress contender lineup….ever?
- Best Actress - THERE WILL BE SNUBS
- Fernanda Torres aims to spoil Oscar morning for vets Cynthia Erivo & Marianne Jean-Baptiste
- Demi Moore, Karla Sofia Gascon, Mikey Madison… too many newbies?
- An Oscars 5-for-5 with the Directors Guild of America for Best Director
- Is it now or never for director James Mangold
- Can Denis Villeneuve find the sweet spot again with his directing branch for Dune, Part 2
- Oscar morning headline - “Female directors shut-out at the Academy Awards, again”
- The Producers Guild of America tries to go 100% with the Oscars Best Picture lineup for two years in a row!!
- The secret weapon for A Real Pain landing in Best Picture of the Year
- A24’s Sing Sing & MGM’s Nickel Boys (two of the year’s best) left out in the cold…
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Joseph (00:14):
Hello listeners and welcome back to Academy
Anonymous.
You're here with Joseph andJules and we're going to be
talking about best actress andbefore we start, let's just take
a moment to feel some gratitudefor what has been a spectacular
year in performances from leadactress.
It has been a best actress, inmy opinion, for the ages.
(00:37):
Whatever you want to get out ofa performance, it is there
among the top 15 contenders.
I congratulate all the ladies,all the women on their
performances, all the artists ontheir performances.
They have so much to be proudof.
Of course, the list only hasfive spots, which means there is
going to be as worthy a list ofperformances that you can
(00:59):
compose out of the individualsthat did not get in.
So just let's take a moment tobe grateful for that.
Hopefully we have anotherfantastic actress year next year
or in the coming years, becausethis has just been great.
Jules (01:14):
Right.
I think the unfortunate thingis going to be we're going to
see some people left off.
But let's start with who gotnominated for the SAG.
Again, probably the mostimportant precursor that an
actor can get.
It's Demi Moore for TheSubstance, Karla Sofia Gascon
for Emilia Perez, Mikey Madisonfor Anora, Cynthia Erivo for
(01:35):
Wicked and Pamela Anderson forThe Last Showgirl.
And for the BAFTAs, we had DemiMoore for The Substance, Mikey
Madison for Anora, Karla SofiaGascon for Emilia Perez, Cynthia
Erivo for Wicked, MarianneJean-Baptiste for Hard Truths
and Saoirse Ronan for The Outrun.
(01:57):
Finally, Finally.
A beautiful performance that gotcompletely neglected this year,
unfortunately, heartbreakinglyso.
Joseph (02:04):
I'm telling you.
I mean and then the BAFTA longlist also listed Amy Adams in
Night Bitch.
They listed Kate Winslet in Lee.
They listed Marisa Abela inBack to Black and Nicole Kidman
in Babyg irl, a Golden Globenominee.
Angelina Jolie was a GoldenGlobe nominee for her
performance in Maria.
(02:24):
Not listed at SAG or at BAFTAis Fernanda Torres, who is your
Globe winner.
Yeah.
And June Squibb gave a greatperformance in Thelma.
I don't know if enough peoplesaw it.
Yeah, it'd be great to see herthere.
Anyway, is there anyone elsethat we need to mention here in
terms of people who werecontending before we start
digging into the Guild and theBritish Academy?
Well, Tilda Swinton had a GoldenGlobe nomination, Zendaya got a
(02:47):
Golden Globe nomination.
Zendaya in Challengers had agreat year.
.
Jules (02:50):
Yeah, but those are really the prime contenders, I
would say, and one would thinkthat the people here who you can
pretty much count on gettingnominated would be Demi Moore
and The Substance.
You and I call that that GoldenGlobe win and we very much
thought that her Golden Globewin and a good speech which she
(03:11):
did give, would really lead hertowards a path very much in the
vein of Sandra Bullock in TheBlind Side getting nominated, an
actor who's been around for avery long time and never gotten
their flowers, finally gettingtheir flowers from the industry,
albeit in a, you know, sort ofalternative choice, as a film -
(03:32):
doesn't typically get nominated,that in and of itself is a feat
.
She's leading the charge, she'sthe face of that film and I
think she stands a terrificchance to get nominated and even
more so to win the whole thing.
I think that Mikey Madison inAnora is such a centerpiece to
her film and that film stands todo really well that I think
(03:54):
she's a lock for nomination.
Then I think it gets a littletricky.
Karla Sofia Gascon is in EmeliaPerez.
She seems like she would be ashoo-in to get nominated,
considering how well we expectEmilia Perez to do.
That being said, if we have tosnub somebody on this list,
possibly someone that they'renot very familiar with another
(04:16):
foreign language performance,that might be the person who
gets you know the short end ofthe stick.
I personally don't think it'sgoing to happen.
I think Emilia Perez ispositioned too strongly for that
to happen, but in the eventthat there's a shocking snub, I
wouldn't be shocked if it is her.
Joseph (04:31):
It's also history.
It's also history that she'smaking here.
Jules (04:35):
Exactly.
She's making history, so Idon't see her getting snubbed.
Could there possibly be somepeople in the Academy who are a
little bit, um, kind of avoidinga you know sort of making that
history because it would maybepossibly bring the conversation
into neutral, uh gender neutralcategories.
(04:55):
Who knows, possibly somethinglike that could possibly happen.
Um, but right now I find her tobe very safe and in probably one
of the safest films incontention this year.
And it gets tricky after that,after those three which I firmly
feel are going to get in, thenit gets tough.
I would like to bring up inthis conversation of best
(05:18):
actress that not since 1970 hasthere been a best actress lineup
that didn't include a veteran.
1970 was the last time.
And even more strangely, beforethen, after then I should say
(05:39):
after 1970, every year hasincluded two at least veterans
in the lineup.
Joseph (05:47):
So are you saying strangely or prophetically?
Jules (05:50):
Either way, but that's something that is very striking,
that this -
Joseph (05:56):
That's a lot of time, since 1970.
Jules (05:58):
This category has found a way to include at least two
veterans in this category, whichis very remarkable.
There were years pre-1970 wherethere were a single, there was
a single veteran nominee in thecategory you had mentioned
earlier.
Joseph (06:17):
I think 1966 with Elizabeth Taylor winning for
Virginia Woolf.
That year only had one veteranand it was the winner.
Elizabeth Taylor, she won.
And the other nominees were allnewbies.
I'll tell you something elsethat was striking about that
list as we go further on intoour discussions, but it's
happened before too.
I think there was a year in the50s maybe that saw maybe one
(06:43):
veteran, or all new girls too,but for the most part, you're
going to see two veterans in the70s, certainly two veterans in
the 80s, two veterans in the 90s, two veterans in the aughts and
in 2010 forward.
It's really that one year in1970 that had nobody, and from
1960, I think you had again thatone year with Elizabeth Taylor
(07:07):
as the only veteran.
So it's very a lot of historyon the side of two veterans here
.
Jules (07:13):
Right, exactly.
And I will say, jumping off ofthat, that if you look at the
contenders that managed to getSAG and BAFTA, there are two
veterans that stand out.
Cynthia Erivo in Wicked hasgotten everything as a precursor
PerfectFor precursors she's been
perfect.
And Marianne Jean-Baptistemanaged, thank God, to get a
(07:34):
spot at the BAFTA for BestActress for Hard Truths.
.
Less than perfectRight.
She's also the trifecta winner.
She won the Los Angeles FilmCritics, the New York Film
Critics Circle and the NationalSociety of Film Critics.
I believe that there's onlybeen one actor, female actor,
who's won all three and not goneon to get a nomination, and I
think that was for a Mike Leighfilm and I think that was Sally
(07:55):
Hawkins.
Prophetic, possibly.
Possibly prophetic.
There's there's also the issuethat Mike mike Leigh lee hasn't
really gotten his actors inunless he's also been a nominee
for Best Director.
That's also something to keepin mind, but in general, those
would be the two veterans thatstand out most to get those last
two veteran spots.
However, the contender who'sreally complicating things in
(08:20):
this category is Fernando Torres, for Brazil's I'm Still Here,
which was a huge box officesuccess You have to think -
A shoe- shoe in, also a shoe infor foreign.
Exactly exactly, it's a shoe infor foreign film, but you have
to think that because theinternational community is so
much more uh, you know, involvedin Oscar oscar race, you know
(08:40):
it matters that it was such abig hit Brazil brazil.
Um, the foreign voters, some ofthem, are watching that movie.
She just won Golden Globesurprisingly surprisingly, even
though we called it, and soshe's really making things
complicated here because, asGolden Globe globe drama winner,
she should be guaranteed a spot.
(09:01):
There's already a foreignperformance in this lineup Karla
Sofia Gascon gascon.
Could that come into as As toFernanda Torres torres is left
out, um, I don't know, but sheshould technically be almost
guaranteed a spot with GoldenGlobe globe win.
But in the event that she wereto get in and, uh, we feel
pretty confident Demi Moore,Mikey Madison madison Karla
(09:23):
Sofia Gascon gascon she wouldactually have to get in over a
veteran.
J.
(09:46):
L L J
Joseph (09:27):
Possibly, over Sally Hawkins.
Jules (09:28):
She would have to get in over a Mike veteran Leigh and so
it means she's either.
(10:09):
getting in over MarianjaBaptiste or she's getting in
over Cynthia Erivo, and theyboth have pros and cons.
We mentioned some.
For Marianja Baptiste, whogives one of the best, best,
maybe possibly the bestperformance of the year in hard
truths, she's absolutelyvolcanic and, um, incredible,
and you know that's a uh, a featof a performance, um, but she's
in a mike lee film and mike leedoesn't tend to get his actors
in, unless he's getting nine forbest director at least possibly
by herself as well she couldpossibly be by herself, because
mike lee might miss the thescreenplay category.
Um, and sally hawkins was in asimilar position.
Joseph (10:13):
She also was the trifecta winner for a mike lee
film and she didn't get in, andso well, one thing we've talked
about marianne Jean-Baptistegoing for her is that, you know,
throw on to that idea of atrifecta winner from Mike Lee
not being able to go thedistance and, you know, get
(10:34):
nominated for actress, and thatwas with a Golden Globe win for
comedy.
Jules (10:38):
That was Sally Hawkins right.
Joseph (10:39):
And a SAG snub right, which that's what Marianne
Jean-Baptiste has this year.
She has a SAG snub right, whichthat's what Marion
Jean-Baptiste has this year.
She has a SAG snub, the onlyedge.
Jules (10:46):
And a Globe snub.
Joseph (10:47):
And a Globe snub.
But the only edge that MarionJean-Baptiste has is that she is
a former nominee.
Jules (10:53):
Exactly, that's her biggest, that's the biggest
weapon that she yields.
That unlike Sally Hawkins, whowas left out, and unlike, for
example, leslie Manville, whohad an opportunity with Another
Year, another Mike Lee film,another great Mike Lee film and
when she was left out.
Mary-angele Baptiste is a pastnominee.
The last time she was on herewas for a Mike Lee film called
(11:14):
Secrets and Lies in thesupporting category, so it's a
category shift.
It's been so many years sinceher last nomination.
I'm sure there are actors in thevoting branch who remember her
performance, who remember her asan actor.
She's continued to work sincethen in various different types
of films and projects, and sothis is really a welcome
opportunity to bring her back infor a performance that is
(11:39):
unlike anything you've seen fromher as of now probably the
performance of her career thusfar, and so you can't help but
think that there are members inthe Academy that are going to
feel that they want to championthat and they want to award that
.
Going also against her is thatpossibly her character can be
unlikable to a certain extent.
Joseph (11:59):
It's a Mike Lee character.
Yeah, it's a very dimensionalcharacter.
Jules (12:01):
Yeah, but it might be a demanding character in the sense
that you might struggle to sortof penetrate those layers.
Joseph (12:09):
Empathize.
Jules (12:09):
Empathize, et cetera, et cetera, and that might be
something that is tricky for her.
So those are the cons that aregoing for against her.
And looking at Cynthia Erivo,who's the other veteran
contender here, she has pros andcons going for her as well and
going against her as well.
Um, one of them being thefantasy musicals.
As we said similarly withariana grande, they don't tend
(12:31):
to land in acting categories.
Um also is the fact that shewas recently nominated, just
five years ago, for harriet.
Um, that was a nomination thatshe didn't need to be nominated
for.
Joseph (12:44):
It was a competitive.
Yeah, it was a competitive year, right?
Jules (12:47):
And she landed that nomination for playing Harriet
Tubman.
She actually landed twonominations that year for
actress and for a songwritingcredit, and so there might not
be an urge for the Academy tofeel like they need to nominate
Cynthia Rievel this time around,that they can wait a little
longer.
It's not a category shift.
(13:08):
She's going from lead to lead.
Joseph (13:09):
Which is tough, which is tough to do, you know not
enough of a cycle has happened.
Jules (13:14):
Again if you want to know more about that, visit some of
our earlier episodes when we'retalking about these patterns and
trends in the acting categories.
Not enough of a cycle hashappened yet.
It's only been five years.
The part two of it, all the parttwo of it all I think might be
something that makes it lessattractive to voters, and so she
has a lot of cons going againsther.
One of the pros is that she isa past nominee, yeah, and so
(13:38):
there's a certain respect thatis attached to her name as a
previous nominee.
But Wicked is a huge successand it stands to certainly get
an eye for Best Picture and getseveral nominations, so that's
going for her.
Joseph (13:50):
The fact that it's a musical is something not going
for her right, Because youalready have a musical spot
there.
Jules (13:55):
You already have another musical spot here.
Similarly, like SupportingActress, it's rare for you to
see two different types ofmusicals nominated in the same
acting category, and it'scertainly rare to see it happen
twice in a year.
So Cynthia Erivo, I think, has,interestingly enough, more cons
(14:16):
than pros, and someone likeMarianne Jean-Baptiste that
possibly stands a better chanceand that maybe her film was
certainly more seen by Americanvoters than Heart Truth might've
been.
Joseph (14:27):
Yeah, Don't forget that Heart Truth is being distributed
by Bleeker Street, which hashad some success in the acting
categories, but very, very fewsuccess stories from Bleeker
Street.
And then also I just want tomention, as we talk about this,
British Academy.
There were no saves this year.
There were no jury saves yeah sothese nominees were the top
(14:48):
vote getters right from theacting branch as a whole, and
that actually, I think, bodesreally well for both cynthia
revo and marianne jean-baptistebut certainly marianne
jean-baptiste, because even inthe uk a mike lee film getting
nominated for anything is nevera given there.
Jules (15:04):
Right, exactly, sally Hawkins missed for.
Joseph (15:07):
Happy Go Lucky.
Jules (15:09):
So I think there's a certain strength to this
contender that maybe not enoughpeople are looking at.
I'm really happy that she gotthat BAFTA nomination.
I think she needed that BAFTAnomination.
I have a hard time thinkingabout the last time that someone
a contender got a BAFTAnomination and won the trifecta
(15:31):
and didn't get nominated.
Joseph (15:33):
That's interesting because Leslie Manville, I know,
got nominated for a BAFTA foranother year, but she did not
win the trifecta Exactly, andSally Hawkins won the trifecta
but didn't get nominated for aBAFTA.
Yes.
Jules (15:43):
So, in a way, and then considering the strength of that
performance, I think all actorshave to do is watch it to place
it high on their ballot.
And she's a past nominee whohasn't been there for a very
long time, so I'm just feelinggood about this nomination for
Mary Jane Baptiste.
The thing that I'm feeling lesssure about is if fernanda
(16:04):
torres can spoil the spot forcynthia or if really cynthia
revo and the strength of wickedoverall ends up spoiling, uh,
fernanda torres's chances,despite a golden globe win well,
I mean, we have the goldenglobe win, we have a massive
success in brazil, we have umthe daughter of f, fernanda
(16:25):
Montenegro.
And so we talk about the Marion.
Joseph (16:28):
Jean-Baptiste revenge tour from Secret and Lies.
We have the Fernanda Torresrevenge tour for her mother in
Central Station with Walter Syas the director, and I'll tell
you what we're missing some realpeople here.
And Fernanda Torres has that inspades Right?
Jules (16:44):
Yeah, this category should like all the other
categories.
There should be someone real inthis category, a real life
figure.
Absolutely An actor, that'srepresenting a real life figure
and we're missing that.
We thought we would have thatwith Angelina Jolie for Maria.
Joseph (16:57):
Or.
Jules (16:57):
Kate, or Kate Winslet for Lee, or even Saoirse Ronan for
the Out.
Run.
That's all sort of kind of beendismantled, and so the best
we've got is Fernanda Torres andI'm still here, which is no
small thing, because again, it'sa big hit in Brazil.
Joseph (17:13):
Yeah, and again, as people have seen it, I will
double down and say that if youwatch that film after the Golden
Globe, you can be perfect andthen some it is a very difficult
performance to overcome.
Right can be perfect and thensome it is a very difficult
performance to overcome right.
It is such compelling material,it is such a compelling story
and it is such a nuancedperformance that at that also
(17:33):
sort of in a way, is alsoextremely loud, and how quiet it
is and how soft it is that I'mtelling you you can be demi more
and win every single trophyfrom here to the Oscars, and
Fernanda Torres can be absent ofall the nominations and you can
still lose to Fernanda Torres.
Right.
Right.
So I think that another factorgoing for her is the Sony
(17:56):
Picture Classics element.
Right yeah.
And that was not nominated fora BAFTA.
But you know, who was nominatedfor a BAFTA was a Sony Picture
Classics girl, and that'sSaoirse Ronan.
And so why don't we talk alittle bit about we talked about
Cynthia Erivo as a vet, butSaoirse Ronan is a vet too.
And she got in from the BritishAcademy.
Jules (18:15):
Yeah, I would love for that to happen.
I think she gives one of thebest performances of the year.
That being said, I do feel it'sa bit quiet and, unlike Marion
de Baptiste, you know, saoirseRonan is often in the Oscar
conversation.
They may feel that a fifthnomination at her age I think
she's just barely 30 might be abit much, especially if maybe
(18:35):
she's not in it to win it, so tospeak.
So you know, I think that'sgoing against Saoirse Ronan
maybe she won't break her bestpicture streak.
Joseph (18:43):
She tends to get nominated with a film that's
nominated against Saoirse Ronan.
Jules (18:45):
Maybe she won't break her best picture streak Right?
She tends to get nominated witha film that's nominated for
best picture.
She's never been nominated byherself completely, which is
what she would be if she gotnominated for the Outrun.
So, and on paper, Kate Winsletand Lee would sound up the rally
because of who she's playing.
I think the Baptist snub andthe Sax snub are indicative.
Joseph (19:05):
Angelina as well again.
Jules (19:06):
Oh yeah, huge snubs there .
Joseph (19:08):
Yeah, unlike Kate, she hasn't been nominated since 2008
, which feels like an eternity.
Her movie was shortlisted formakeup.
We know makeup likes to rewardsome real life people, so maybe
she wouldn't get in by herself.
And you had already earlier onin this podcast you had
(19:40):
positioned Maria as lookout for,you know, Angelina Jolie to
possibly miss some dealing withother things that had nothing to
do with movies or Oscars.
Maybe there's enough of aninternational faction to get her
in.
She's not on that BAFTA longlist but she is, you know, known
globally.
And again, if the wildfiresmade every race sort of stop at
(20:00):
the Golden Globes, right.
Because that's more or lessbefore everything got out of
hand.
If that's the case, then shewas still in a relatively strong
position at that point Right.
And she could also be the realfactor, right, the real
individual on this list, right,right.
So she, like Kate Winslet, areplaying that same card, but
unlike Kate Winslet, she's beenwaiting a little bit longer,
(20:32):
Right, longer, right 100, Iagree.
Um, and then someone likepamela anderson got in for the
screen actors guild award aheadof angelina jolie and ahead of
kate winslet and ahead of sirsharonan yeah not surprised to
see her ahead of fernando torres.
it's a more of an internationalperformance.
I'm not sure the committeereally prioritized watching it,
but I do think that it'simportant that you know Pamela
Anderson was able to sort ofmake that finish line.
It shows some some you knowshe's going to have some votes
(20:55):
for sure.
The Jamie Lee Curtis mentionedat BAFTA is going to is going to
show that people are watchingthat film.
But I think it also serves asthis idea that these strong sort
of iconic actresses and thesestrong performances they're
running second to PamelaAnderson and they're happy to
sort of embrace her and championher and sort of put her on a
pedestal celebrating the workshe's done, even if she does not
(21:18):
have the career of AngelinaJolie or Kate Winslet.
Which brings me to my finalpoint that I wanted to bring up.
When we're looking at both theBritish Academy and the Guild to
sort of help mold that finallist is here's what I'm noticing
If you look at the SAG list,how many veterans do you have
that are previous Oscar nomineesIn the SAG list At the Screen
(21:41):
Actors Guild?
One.
Only one right, cynthia Erivo,and if you look at the BAFTA
list, you have three newbiesright.
You have who everyone ispegging, which is Demi Moore,
carla and Mikey, and you havethree veterans right, but BAFTA
has never nominated CynthiaErivo, and so technically that's
sort of a new person for.
BAFTA to be nominating Right,and so what calls my attention
(22:04):
is that, and in terms of the SAG, you're getting one Oscar
nominee in Cynthia Erivo, butyou're getting four non-Oscar
nominees and, I believe, fourfirst-time SAG nominees.
I'm not sure if Demi Moore hasbeen nominated individually
before.
And, in terms of the BAFTA,you're getting three previous
Oscar nominees Saoirse, marionand Cynthia but you're getting
(22:26):
four first-time BAFTA nominees,but you're getting four
first-time BAFTA nominees.
So I'm thinking that the energyright now is for the idea of
including four new actresses,sort of mimicking 1966.
Jules (22:38):
We talked about that with .
Joseph (22:39):
Elizabeth Taylor in who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf.
I'm thinking that's going to bethe best comparison for what
this list ends up looking like.
Jules (22:47):
Right, and there's something interesting about that
year.
Joseph (22:49):
Right.
The other fascinating thingabout that year is not only was
there just one veteran, which isa rarity.
Jules (22:55):
And she won, and she won.
Joseph (22:57):
Elizabeth Taylor.
She won In a performance that Ithink we can make some
interesting comparisons,possibly between her and Demi
Moore in the Substance could bekind of an interesting
conversation to have.
Jules (23:06):
But you have two foreign language performances nominated
that same year, which is notsomething that happens often, at
all Not at all.
Joseph (23:13):
You had the performance from the Shop on Main Street and
the performance from A man anda Woman.
I believe Both of them werenominated.
Does not happen very often, ontheir first nomination,
potentially seeing only oneveteran get in and two foreign
language performances get in, ifCarla and Fernanda manage to
(23:35):
stay in the top five.
Jules (23:36):
Right, a hundred percent.
I think that that was an eerieparallel that we found going
backwards and really mimics thisparticular category this season
, and so I think really we'reboth on the money, that we feel
like Demi Moore, mikey Madison,carlos, sofia Gascon and
Fernanda Torres will be there.
It's really a question about,at the end of the day, will
(23:59):
Marianne Jean-Baptiste be ableto overcome Cynthia Erivo and
Wicked Right.
Joseph (24:04):
I think that is the question most people are posing.
But I'm sorry, I really likethe whole revenge tour theme.
I think that's a thing thisyear what I really like is a
trifecta winner and a baftanominee that's great and, like I
said, no, bafta saves this timeand we know that hartruves was
in typical, you know bafta andmajor, you know award body
(24:26):
fashion was not liked enough toget the wonderful uh, her
wonderful co-star.
Michelle Austin nominated, butit was liked enough to get
Marianne Jean-Baptiste nominatedand I think that's important.
Jules (24:39):
Right, exactly, and so for my final predictions, I'm
going to go with Demi Moore, thesubstance, Mikey Madison, Anora
Carlos Sofia Gascon, EmiliaPerez, Fernanda Torres I'm still
here.
And Marian Madison, OnoraCarlos Sofia Gascon, Emilia
Perez, Fernanda Torres I'm Stillhere.
And Marianne Jean-Baptiste forHard Truths, and my spoiler is
going to be Cynthia Erivo, forWicked.
Joseph (24:58):
I think that that is the only way to go.
Really, I think I would go DemiMoore for the Substance, mikey
Madison for Onora Carlos, sofiaGascon for Emilia Perez Making
History.
Fernanda Torres I'm Still hereRevenge Tour for Her Mother and
Central Station, and MarionJean-Baptiste Heart Truth
Revenge Tour for Secret and Lies, and Mike Lee Exactly.
And then my spoiler I think isCynthia Erivo.
(25:19):
I think this is a shoe-innomination for Cynthia Erivo,
had she missed.
Harriet had she missed Harriet.
Had she been snubbed there?
Yeah, had she been snubbedthere?
Yeah, had she been snubbedthere, I would have bet my life
that she would have scored abest actress nomination for
either part one or part two,right Exactly.
Jules (25:35):
And so those are final predictions for this very hotly
contested best actress category.
I think, no matter what happens, you know, expect to be
surprised by someone orsomeone's who are left out.
Yeah.
Unfortunately, we'll see whathappens, and that's our dive
into our final predictions forBest Actress.
(25:56):
Okay, moving on to the categoryof Best Director, I think this
race has really calcified aswell, like some of the other
above the line categories, andso we have just a number of
people to pick from here, and Iwould say that, in reality, for
me, maybe there are about sevencontenders that I think could
(26:17):
possibly happen, and I feelmostly that it's really between
six personally for me.
Um, let's look at who.
We went over in our previousepisode of the dga that the
nominees were brady corbett, forthe brutalists, sean baker for
honora, jacques odier, familiaparis, edward berger for
conclave and james mangled forcomplete unknown all first time
(26:40):
nominees at the director's guildaward and potentially all
first-time oscar nominees in thecategory of best Director.
Correct the DGA didn't have aveteran spot.
Joseph (26:51):
They opted out of one.
Jules (26:52):
There's oftentimes more often than not a veteran that
gets a spot here in BestDirector.
And for the BAFTA we had BradyCorbett for the Brutalist, sean
Baker for Honora, jacquesAudillard for Amelia Perez,
edward Berger for Conclave,coralie Fargeat for the
Substance and Denis Villeneuvefor Doom Part II.
Joseph (27:11):
So no James Mangold from the DGA, and Coralie Fargeat
and Denis Villeneuve in.
Jules (27:18):
Exactly, and so really I feel that the five for the
Oscars will be between those twogroups and, to be honest, I
feel pretty good about BradyCorbet for the Brutalist, and
Sean Baker and Onora, andJacques Cotillard for Amelia
Perez and Edward Berger forConclave.
I feel pretty solid about thosefour.
It's really that last spot forme, and I'm right now between
(27:43):
following the DGA5 and goingwith James Mangle for Complete
Unknown, who's been nominatedhere previously as a writer and
as a producer.
Joseph (27:51):
Who would be nominated this year for producing and
writing a Complete Unknown aswell.
Jules (27:55):
Exactly, and the only person that I think could spoil
this is an actual veteran whocould spoil this list as an
actual veteran, and that's DenisVilleneuve in Dune Part 2, who
was left out of the Guild thisyear but did make it in for the
Guild in 2021 for Dune Part 2,who was left out of the guild
this year but did make it in forthe guild in 2021 for Dune as
opposed to the Academy, where hedid not get nominated for the
(28:17):
guild.
And so I go back and forththinking will the Academy feel
like, because they snubbed himfrom the first one and he only
has one nomination for arrivaland his name is so reputable now
, will they feel like they wantto give him a feather in his cap
for the achievement that wasthe entirety of Dune and give
(28:38):
him a nomination for BestDirector finally for this
franchise?
Or will they say well, you know, I didn't nominate him for Dune
Part 1.
I'm not going to nominate himfor Dune Part 2.
I want to see somethingnon-franchise related.
I hear that he's going to makemore Dune movies, so that's a
problem.
(28:58):
Maybe I don't have to nominatehim right now.
Joseph (29:02):
And you can nominate him for Part 3 or however many
parts there are.
I definitely think that the Part1 of it all and the part two of
it all is an issue.
Listen, the DGA.
They're going to try to put aveteran as often as possible,
and so the fact that they leftoff Denevil New, I think, is
really bad news.
He's not doing anything herethat he didn't do in part one.
(29:23):
I think it's going to be verydifficult for him to win this
category without that DGA.
I think it's going to be verydifficult for him to win this
category without that DGA.
And if you kind of think aboutit, if he does not win this
category and gets nominated foran Academy Award this year,
(29:44):
he'll be two nominations in, andthat ties Christopher Nolan who
has a win?
And that surpasses Guillermo delToro and that's already
surpassing Greta Gerwig.
So I really think that thedirectors here might be a little
bit more selective and decideto leave him off for both films.
That's what I'm thinking rightnow.
I'm thinking that if the DGAwent veteranless, that this
(30:06):
Academy branch is going to goveteran list.
this academy branch, I wouldargue, is even pickier than the
dga, right they're going to seethat dj list and they're going
to swap out for some more uniquechoices, more international
choices, right, more politicallycharged choices they may do
that in other years previousright.
And then it's kind of shockingbecause if there's one director
that has been talked up by thebigger names in the industry,
(30:29):
like Steven Spielberg andChristopher Nolan right it would
be Danilo new, you know um.
So I I understand where you'recoming from, but I think that
that DGA snub might have beenthe final nail in the coffin for
Danilo new scoring a nod hereright I.
Jules (30:46):
I think it's a good sign that he got Nami at BAFTAs.
We don't know exactly whatnumber he was, but he may have
been number five.
Over the next person we'll talkabout Coralie Fargeat for the
Substance.
I think people are feelingpretty confident about her
getting in this year.
I'm not as confident, I thinkCoralie Fargeat getting
(31:07):
nominated for a film like theSubstance, which again stands to
make waves this Oscar season,by being embraced because it's a
genre film and it's totally notthe thing they go for.
Joseph (31:17):
Mubi's first film too.
Jules (31:18):
Mubi's first film.
So seeing the Substancenominated or Coralie Fargeau
nominated for as a producer, asa director and as a writer and
possibly as an editor, it justseems like too much for a film.
That's sort of breaking groundin a way, and so I don't like
her for this nomination.
I think director's branch isvery picky about the women
filmmakers that they let intothis category.
(31:39):
Last year we did have a femalefilmmaker, but not the one that
most people thought.
Or Celine Song, either Exactly,and they could have done two
that year.
So I think they're very pickyand I think their pickiness is
going to go to the top fivefilms, the films they thought
were the top five films of theyear.
Right.
And so because I think a filmlike A Complete Unknown has that
(32:01):
sort of coveted spot oversomething like the Substance is
why I give the edge to people,to someone like James Mangold.
I don't think Carly Fargeau inthe Substance sort of occupies
that same level of stature.
James Mangold has been workingfor a long time and he's never
been nominated as a director,and this would be an opportunity
to do so.
(32:23):
Carly Fargeau for some of thesedirectors it's the first time
they're seeing her.
I don't know how many of themsaw her first film, Revenge.
We already have a first-timeron here who's only had three
films.
I'm unsure how many of thosefilms the director's branch has
already seen with Brady Corbett.
Sean Baker's a newbie, JacquesAudillard, has been working for
(32:45):
a very long time as well, butfor the first time he's going to
be recognized by this branch.
Edward Berger this is sort ofthe second film that most of
them are seeing after Alcoy onthe Western Front.
So putting Carly Fergeau onthis list feels like a little
overkill in terms of newness.
Joseph (32:58):
Yeah, I could see that.
Jules (33:00):
That's what I'm thinking, and the other person that
people are possiblycontemplating is Rommel Ross for
Nickel Boys.
A beautiful job by romell ross,certainly a very talented,
ambitious, experimental,exciting filmmaker.
Unfortunately, I just think thefilm is way too ambitious yeah
and experimental for this branch.
Uh, to penetrate, to penetratethis branch.
(33:22):
I think the nickel boys mainprize will be a screenplay
nomination hopefully it's abridge too far.
Joseph (33:29):
Um, at this point, from romeel Ross, who did an amazing
job, but I do not think that hewill end up being nominated.
So I mean, is there anyone youhaven't talked about, or are you
comfortable with just thosenames?
Jules (33:41):
I'm comfortable with just those names.
I know there's someone thatyou're eager to talk about.
Joseph (33:45):
Well, I will say, that is that I look at that DGA list
and I'm dissatisfied.
I will say that is that I lookat that DGA list and I'm
dissatisfied and I think aboutreplacing James Mangold, who I
think most people would replaceout of those five Right, because
they think that Conclave,emilia Perez and Nora on the
blue list are so far ahead interms of cementing themselves in
Best Picture and Best Directorand I replace James.
(34:11):
Mangold with the veteran DenisVillis venu, and I'm also
dissatisfied right, I thinkdirectors are at the academy,
are notoriously picky and Idon't think that they're going
to want to do spectacle for duneright anything with a part is
probably not going to benominated is what I'm thinking.
and then I think about replacingdeniseneuve and James Mangold
for Carly Fargeant, and I'mstill dissatisfied.
(34:31):
I think you have way too manycon movies.
I think it would have needed towin the Palme d'Or to cement
that sort of position there.
I think the substance is in areally interesting place because
it's sort of in between the twofilms last year, greta Gerwig's
Barbie and Justine Trillet'sAnatomy of a Fall.
(34:52):
It's a French film, it's a confilm like Anatomy of a Fall.
It's somewhat of a populistfilm, somewhat of a film that
rewards the general movie-goingaudience, somewhat of a
spectacle film and not, you know, the sort of austere,
dialogue-driven,performance-driven piece that
Anatomy of a Fall is.
(35:14):
And so, because it's in thisweird place of both of those, I
think it's not spectaclefinancial success enough to be a
nominee in this category forsomething like Barbie, and I
don't think it's austere enoughto be a nominee in this category
for something like Anatomy of aFall.
There's too much of a genrebent to it, so I'm sort of
(35:35):
dissatisfied with that too.
I think, honestly, there's roomfor one conventional movie and
we have two at the DGA andthat's either Conclave with
Edward Berger or A CompleteUnknown with James Mangold.
I like that.
At that DJ list you do not havea veteran, but you have someone
(35:55):
who's been working since the 90s, someone who's done Copland and
Heavy and Girl Interrupted andgotten, you know, oscar
nominations for his performances, been nominated in the editing
field and the sound field andthe costume field, and I think
this is the project for him toget in.
I think to me it sort ofmirrors Taylor Hackford.
(36:17):
He got a lot of attention in1982 for an officer and a
gentleman and he was finallyable to break through and be
nominated for Ray and he wouldgo on to be, I think, president
of the DGA for quite a while andI think James Mangold holds so
much respect amongst his peersfor being able to do musical and
comedy and biography and actionfilm and superhero film and all
(36:42):
different kinds of genres rightat all different kinds of
budget levels, whether it'sCopland or Night and Day or
Logan, whatever, I can see himbeing president of the DGA at
some point in his career.
And so I think this is the filmfor him to get in, and so I'm
going to say that there is noveteran and that James Mangold
would get in there instead ofthe veteran.
(37:03):
But I still don't like the ideaof these two sort of
conventional pieces of Conclaveand James Mangold there.
So I think the controversialthing that's going to end up
happening is that Edward Bergeris not going to make it in for
Conclave because he just doesnot have the filmography of Sean
Baker or Jacques Garriard.
It does not make sense to benominating them at the same time
(37:24):
.
Sure, his filmography rivals,you know, brady Corbett's but
brady corbett is a writer,director, and brady corbett is
shooting in vista vision, andyou can already tell that he's
going to be the kind ofuncompromising filmmaker that
the director's branch is goingto nominate time and time again.
I think edward berger is goingto be sort of like denis venu,
(37:44):
who's not necessarily going tobe known for his writing but
who's going to be able todeliver a compelling, dramatic
visual piece that is wellaccomplished sonically and
thematically and visually.
But I don't think this is thefilm yet.
I don't think this is the filmyet.
I think, looking at this list,you're going to see Conclave be
possibly the most nominated filmof the year and miss this one
(38:08):
huge nomination which throws thewhole winner argument into
disarray.
And so here's who I do like forit.
I've always been in the positionthat this is a very picky
branch and the one person who Ithink has been working here
forever, who's taken a bit of abreak but who's come out with a
(38:28):
film who I think is going toresonate politically with so
much of this branch, is WalterSaez, for I'm Still here and I
think he's the one who I thinkmakes the most sense If I'm
going to have a list with noveteran.
I like the idea of puttingWalter Saez in there, who's been
working as long as any veteranhas and has never gotten in, and
(38:49):
James Mangold, for the exactsame reason.
Jules (38:52):
Right, I think that's a fascinating case and certainly
you bring up a lot of goodpoints about how Edward Berger
could possibly be snubbed forConclave.
I think it's certainly worthconsidering.
I think that's certainly worthconsidering.
I think that's a strong case.
I think Walter Saez, from I'mStill here, is a very strong
case.
Right now I'm going to stickwith James Mangold and I'm going
to say it's the five from theDGA and my spoiler.
Joseph (39:14):
You know, based on what you were saying, maybe I'm going
to say that my spoiler isWalter Saez, from I'm Still here
.
I'm telling you, I think thatwhen you look at this list of
nominees, walter Saez, alongwith James Mangold, but
certainly Walter Saez as sort ofan international figure in
filmmaking, he stands out.
He really does stand out, and Ithink Sony Pictures might be
(39:34):
able to work its magic again.
And the field is sort ofthere's just too much new talent
here that is going to benominated eventually.
I'm just not sure it makes senseto be nominating Sean Baker and
Corley at the same time JacquesArillard and Edward Berger at
the same time Jacques Arillardand James Mangold.
That makes sense.
It makes sense to be nominatingthem at the same time, you know
.
But if I have to pick one pieceof talent to be nominated right
(39:58):
now, it would be Brady Corbett,because he checks so many of
the boxes.
But I'm just not sure I see allthese young filmmakers being
nominated at the same time whenmangled and walter size have yet
to be nominated.
And the same thing withdennyville knew a second
nomination for him, possiblywithout a win, when we haven't
nominated mangled or walter sizeonce right.
Jules (40:18):
one thing that keeps me hesitant about walter size, now
that you're speaking aboutspeaking on it is that, since
we're not 100% sure thatFernanda Torres will definitely
get nominated we believe thatshe will and we're pretty
certain about it, but not 100%sure there's a reality where I'm
Still here disappointinglywalks out with just one
nomination for Best Foreign Film.
(40:39):
So I feel a little bit hesitantto put it for too many places.
And what if it doesn't getnominated director and instead
it gets a surprise nominationfor screenplay, which is
something within the realm ofpossibility too and instead it's
screenplay and not director, sothere's just too many variables
for me to feel super confidentin, but I think you bring up a
good case, and so your five areBrady Corbett, jack ODR, sean
(41:02):
Baker, james Mangold and WalterSaez.
Joseph (41:05):
Yeah.
Jules (41:06):
And your spoiler.
Joseph (41:07):
And my spoiler is going to be Denevo New, if they really
want that veteran.
Jules (41:11):
All right, and then let's move on to the final category,
the best picture, the milliondollar baby, so to speak.
So they say and so honestly,this is a almost complete list.
I think we have eight very,very, very likely contenders and
(41:34):
so really it's only about thoselast two spots, and even then I
feel pretty good about who I'mputting at number nine.
So for me it's more about who'sgoing to get that last spot.
Yeah, and so let's just runthrough it quickly.
Emilia paris I expect to be afully, uh, very, uh, several
nominations on oscar nominationmorning conclave possibly the
most nominated film.
Um, alongside emilia paris, thebrutalist anora, a complete
(41:58):
unknown dune part Substance.
And for me, the number ninefilm is A Real Pain.
Some people are a little bitiffy on it.
I am not convinced by itscompetition.
Sing Sing, nickel Boys I justdon't think they're mustering
enough presence strength to beatsomething like A Real Pain,
which is a charming, accessible,likable film that is going to
(42:24):
get nominated for screenplay andis going to get nominated and
possibly win Best SupportingActor.
When you think about films thatare Best Screenplay nominees and
possibly an acting winner,you're going to have a hard time
finding a movie that fits thatcategory that doesn't get nine
for best picture in a year of 10I think we left for it exactly
(42:47):
now, if it had been, you know,less than a year of 10, 5, 6 7,
10 sure, then possibly it gets,it misses, but in a year we have
to get 10 spots and you have avery strong best supporting
actor likely winner and abonafide Best Screenplay nominee
.
Count on that film rounding outthe list and getting that
(43:08):
number nine spot.
We did look back, as you said.
One that we found was ReginaKing when she won for If Beale
Street Could Talk.
That movie was not nominatedfor Best Film.
Joseph (43:19):
But there was only eight spots.
Jules (43:20):
Right, it was nominated for Best Screenplay.
However, was only eight spots?
Right?
It did.
It was nominated for bestscreenplay.
However, as you just said,there was only eight spots and
it's very likely that in theyear of 10, it would have been
nominated.
Joseph (43:28):
There's every reason to believe that it would have been
either spot nine or spot number10 and same thing with something
like blue jasmine, which got abest actress winner um and was
nine for best screenplay and itwasn't nominated.
Jules (43:40):
But again, there were not 10 spots there were nine spots
yeah, in a year of 10, it's verylikely that blue jasmine would
have rounded out that list veryso the possibilities of real
pain rounding out this list atnumber nine are very strong or
very high, so I think it's abona fide number nine the only
thing I don't like about itwhich we can touch upon is the
idea that fox searchlight getstwo spots.
Joseph (44:01):
If a complete unknown had not worked out, the fox
searchlight factor would haveguaranteed a real, a real pain a
spot.
Here I still think you're right.
It's in very good territory,especially when you compare it
to its competition.
Look, here's a film nominatedfor the golden globes, made the
pga top 10, which is the bestbarometer here, but also, you
know, nominated for the editorsguild.
Right, it didn't need to benominated at the sag guild,
(44:22):
unlike some, some of these othertitles, and so I think it has
enough wide support to make itonto this list.
Jules (44:29):
Right, and so really, I think we're both, just like most
people, figuring out who's thatlast spot, and there are a few
contenders to look at.
Some people are going for SingSing, some people are going for
Nickel Boys.
Interestingly enough, they bothgot snuffed from the PGA.
Joseph (44:45):
And the other nine that we've mentioned are PGA nominees
.
Jules (44:47):
Exactly On top of that, Sing Sing really underperformed
at the SAG, which was reallysurprising to me.
It only got one nomination andNickel Boys didn't get any
nomination.
They both underperformed at theBAFTA.
Nickel Boys has one nomination,Sing Sing has three, which
isn't so bad, but certainly notthe kind of contender that I
think A24 initially had in mindfor this film.
So some people are pickingbetween those two.
(45:09):
I say the opposite.
I think they're both in similarterrain and they cancel each
other out and that's why neitherwill get nominated.
Some people are thinking I'mStill here could surprise for
Best Picture.
Maybe another foreign film.
Like All we Imagine is Light,maybe a summer hit.
Super critically acclaimed film, one of the best films of the
year Challengers Surprising here.
(45:31):
Can we shout out Nosferatu,Nosferatu which stands to get
several technical nominations.
Joseph (45:37):
If anyone deserves two nominations in terms of
distributors, it's FocusFeatures this year Exactly
exactly Technical nominationsfor Nosferatu.
Jules (45:48):
He could easily go from four to five and get that best
picture nomination.
Joseph (45:50):
I mean, it's again not the kind of film they go for for
best picture.
Jules (45:52):
Some quote-unquote experts are pitching juror
number two, also right jurornumber two variety is saying
they've talked to some memberswho keep mentioning that movie.
Joseph (45:58):
Maybe that movie gets nominated for uh best picture
and that's it well where thosevoters been is where I'm asking,
as a farewell to clint eastwood, and that's it.
Well, where have those votersbeen?
Is where I'm asking.
Jules (46:05):
As a farewell to Clint Eastwood.
I think that's within the realmof possibility.
It would be a surprise, butthat's there.
And then I'm going to say thatwhen we're looking at Best
Picture, the way that I like tolook at it is, if we're coming
up with 10 spots, your place tolook in order to find the
contenders that are going toround that list is pretty simple
Look at the films that gotnominated for director, for
(46:29):
acting, for screenplay.
Your last remaining spot shouldbe among those films, and the
category that I particularlylike to look at to fill that
spot of those three branches isactually the screenplay spot,
because most of these filmsshould be nominated for
(46:50):
screenplay if they're going tobe best picture list of 10.
Most of those 10 films shouldbe a best screenplay nominee.
Maybe leave out one, maybeleave out two, that's about it.
So most of them should.
So that draws my eye to onecontender that I think stands a
very good chance of making alate sprint into that fifth
(47:10):
screenplay spot.
And to boot, it landed asurprise nomination at the
Producers Guild, and that isSeptember 5.
My money right now is thatSeptember 5 will be nominated
for best film and best originalscreenplay, and that's it.
And the producers guild will goonce again 10 for 10, as they
(47:32):
did last year.
Joseph (47:34):
I think that's a very compelling list.
I think when september 5 gotthat pga nomination over sing
sing and over nickel boys,telling it was very telling and
possibly the final nail in thecoffin for both of those films,
both excellent.
Nickel Boys, one of my favoritefilms of the year.
But September 5, I think, mightjust have come out with enough
(47:56):
time to make an impression onsome people and I think it's
very reasonable and very validto be putting that at the 10th
spot.
Again, we've mentioned a bunchof really good titles.
September 5th is reallytempting.
We know that last year for thefirst time the pga got all 10
nominees.
We also know that the pga is ona streak that every single
(48:17):
title listed should be nominatedfor a category yes you already
have september 5 in screenplay,as do I.
We both think it's dark horsesfor film editing.
I think I have it in my finalpre-dex, but it could end up
getting anywhere from two tothree and your same picture, and
that would be three.
I think that's an excellent,excellent choice.
But I'm going to go elsewhere.
I'm going to go ahead and allyear long I've been playing the
(48:40):
madman and saying that there isjust not enough alignment for
Emilia Perez to be the choicefor the foreign language film.
There's just.
If you look at all the foreignlanguage films this isn't like
my octopus teacher You're goingto get some.
A very austere choice, a very achoice that appeals to enough
(49:01):
people but sort of.
You know, while broadlyappealing, doesn't betray the
idea that it is a foreignlanguage film and very
challenging and not necessarilya populist film.
So because of that, I'm gonnasay that we're missing the
foreign language film winner inbest picture, and I'm going to
continue jumping on this ideathat Fernanda Torres doesn't
(49:24):
need very much to win an Oscar.
She doesn't need a SAGnomination, she doesn't need a
BAFTA nomination.
If she is nominated, it doesn'tmatter who's sweeping the
awards.
She can win that with just thatGolden Globe win.
I'm going to say that in foreignlanguage film, where we could
see Emilia Perez nominated, Idon't think it will be, but if,
if it is nominated, it's notgoing to walk against.
(49:45):
I'm Still here, and neither isthe Seed of the Sacred Fig and
Walter Salles, I think, ispoised to break into that Best
Director category.
I think Sony Picture Classicsis going to pull off Sony
Picture Classics Magic a laAmour and get I'm Still here
nominated for Best Picture, andthat is our foreign language
(50:06):
film winner.
Emilia Perez poised to winmultiple awards, that night song
, supporting actress, possiblyscore.
But the award that I think itwill not win is foreign language
film.
I think that award belongs to,possibly I'm Still here, which
may also steal the Best Actressaward.
So I think, by virtue of itbeing a big winner, I think it
(50:27):
needs to be in the biggestcategory.
Jules (50:30):
Well, that's a very interesting take.
I think that's a very boldprediction.
I certainly think it can bewithin the realm of possibility.
So who's your spoiler?
That's tough.
I think I'm going to go thesafe route and I'm going to say
that my spoiler is Sing Sing,which is the movie that I'd be
putting on here if there wasn'tan option to put September 5.
And I was predicting that itwouldn't get nominated for
(50:52):
anything.
But since I am predicting itfor screenplay, you know I'm
going to go safe.
I'm going to say my spoiler isSing Sing.
Joseph (50:59):
I think I'm going to agree with you.
I think the spoiler here isSing Sing and that it's able to
sort of complete its Hail Marypass and sort of get you know
picture couple of actingscreenplay.
I think that's its best day andmaybe it did enough work behind
the scenes to accomplish that.
You know, never sleep on Plan B, who had to have some kind of
Hail Mary plan for the wonderfulNickel Boys who I do not think
(51:22):
will make the short list here,but so- and I wonder if Variety
is onto something and it's rightand it's going to be the
farewell nomination to ClintEastwood.
I don't know, I mean that wouldbe absolutely insane if that is
just one nomination and I feellike Variety in true Variety
form.
You got to sell papers, right?
Speaker 2 (51:46):
They're always going to push the Oxbow incident
nomination where there's onemovie that gets nominated for
best picture, and that's it.
Joseph (51:50):
Of course, the Oxbow incident, a beautiful film, a
film that actually reallyinspired Clint Eastwood, a
worthy best picture nominee, inan extended lineup, and so it'd
be kind of, you know, poetic tosee Clint Eastwood nominated for
maybe his last film.
Let's hope not Maybe his lastfilm, in a sort of Oxbow
incident sort of fashion, butlet's face it every year,
variety is going to come up withan Oxbow incident nominee.
(52:11):
Just one nomination for picture, and that's it.
Jules (52:14):
Well, that's been our huge, thorough roundup of the
Best Picture nominees and, atlarge, all the nominees, all the
categories for the AcademyAwards and the upcoming
nominations coming up.
Joseph (52:28):
Don't forget.
Yeah, you can.
I'm sorry, just don't forget.
You can see our finalpredictions on our Twitter page
if you follow us at our Twitter.
Jules (52:35):
At Academy Anon and you know that was extensive and I
can't say we're 100% sure onevery category we've predicted
but we'll see what happens.
Joseph (52:46):
We're only hours away from it happening and we should
we should rename this showAcademy Cheat Sheet I think
Academy Cheat Sheet or AcademyAwards, academy Awards, because
we're hacking them.
But, so if you want to, if youthink you can, maybe best your
friends or your fellow Oscarwatchers.
We hope this has been helpful.
Jules (53:04):
We'll hope you tune in next time.
Joseph (53:06):
Yeah, as we hopefully cover the reaction to the
nominees, which hopefully is nottoo painful.
Let's hope so, let's hope.
Jules (53:16):
let's hope it's not too heartbreaking or too painful,
but in all likelihood everynomination, uh morning, ends up
being bittersweet Things you'rehappy about.
Joseph (53:25):
A mixed bag Things that every nomination morning ends up
being bittersweet things.
Jules (53:27):
You're happy about A mixed bag, things that suck, and
so you know we'll see whathappens.
We're hoping for the best.
Joseph (53:31):
Here's hoping some of your favorites get in.
Jules (53:35):
Here's hoping some of them do get in.
Thanks for tuning in.
I'm Jules and I'm Joseph, andit's been a pleasure.
The music on this episodeentitled Cool Cats was
graciously provided by KevinMacLeod and incompetechcom,
(53:56):
licensed under Creative Commonsby Attribution 3.0.
H-t-t-p colon forward slash.
Forward slashcreativecommonsorg.
Forward slash licenses.
Forward slash buy.
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Joseph (54:16):
Disclaimer the Academy Anonymous podcast is in no way
affiliated or endorsed by theAcademy of Motion Picture Arts
and Sciences.
Hello listeners and welcome back to Academy
Anonymous.
You're here with Joseph andJules and we're going to be
talking about best actress andbefore we start, let's just take
a moment to feel some gratitudefor what has been a spectacular
year in performances from leadactress.
It has been a best actress, inmy opinion, for the ages.
(00:37):
Whatever you want to get out ofa performance, it is there
among the top 15 contenders.
I congratulate all the ladies,all the women on their
performances, all the artists ontheir performances.
They have so much to be proudof.
Of course, the list only hasfive spots, which means there is
going to be as worthy a list ofperformances that you can
(00:59):
compose out of the individualsthat did not get in.
So just let's take a moment tobe grateful for that.
Hopefully we have anotherfantastic actress year next year
or in the coming years, becausethis has just been great.
Jules (01:14):
Right.
I think the unfortunate thingis going to be we're going to
see some people left off.
But let's start with who gotnominated for the SAG.
Again, probably the mostimportant precursor that an
actor can get.
It's Demi Moore for TheSubstance, Karla Sofia Gascon
for Emilia Perez, Mikey Madisonfor Anora, Cynthia Erivo for
(01:35):
Wicked and Pamela Anderson forThe Last Showgirl.
And for the BAFTAs, we had DemiMoore for The Substance, Mikey
Madison for Anora, Karla SofiaGascon for Emilia Perez, Cynthia
Erivo for Wicked, MarianneJean-Baptiste for Hard Truths
and Saoirse Ronan for The Outrun.
(01:57):
Finally, Finally.
A beautiful performance that gotcompletely neglected this year,
unfortunately, heartbreakinglyso.
Joseph (02:04):
I'm telling you.
I mean and then the BAFTA longlist also listed Amy Adams in
Night Bitch.
They listed Kate Winslet in Lee.
They listed Marisa Abela inBack to Black and Nicole Kidman
in Babyg irl, a Golden Globenominee.
Angelina Jolie was a GoldenGlobe nominee for her
performance in Maria.
(02:24):
Not listed at SAG or at BAFTAis Fernanda Torres, who is your
Globe winner.
Yeah.
And June Squibb gave a greatperformance in Thelma.
I don't know if enough peoplesaw it.
Yeah, it'd be great to see herthere.
Anyway, is there anyone elsethat we need to mention here in
terms of people who werecontending before we start
digging into the Guild and theBritish Academy?
Well, Tilda Swinton had a GoldenGlobe nomination, Zendaya got a
(02:47):
Golden Globe nomination.
Zendaya in Challengers had agreat year.
.
Jules (02:50):
Yeah, but those are really the prime contenders, I
would say, and one would thinkthat the people here who you can
pretty much count on gettingnominated would be Demi Moore
and The Substance.
You and I call that that GoldenGlobe win and we very much
thought that her Golden Globewin and a good speech which she
(03:11):
did give, would really lead hertowards a path very much in the
vein of Sandra Bullock in TheBlind Side getting nominated, an
actor who's been around for avery long time and never gotten
their flowers, finally gettingtheir flowers from the industry,
albeit in a, you know, sort ofalternative choice, as a film -
(03:32):
doesn't typically get nominated,that in and of itself is a feat
.
She's leading the charge, she'sthe face of that film and I
think she stands a terrificchance to get nominated and even
more so to win the whole thing.
I think that Mikey Madison inAnora is such a centerpiece to
her film and that film stands todo really well that I think
(03:54):
she's a lock for nomination.
Then I think it gets a littletricky.
Karla Sofia Gascon is in EmeliaPerez.
She seems like she would be ashoo-in to get nominated,
considering how well we expectEmilia Perez to do.
That being said, if we have tosnub somebody on this list,
possibly someone that they'renot very familiar with another
(04:16):
foreign language performance,that might be the person who
gets you know the short end ofthe stick.
I personally don't think it'sgoing to happen.
I think Emilia Perez ispositioned too strongly for that
to happen, but in the eventthat there's a shocking snub, I
wouldn't be shocked if it is her.
Joseph (04:31):
It's also history.
It's also history that she'smaking here.
Jules (04:35):
Exactly.
She's making history, so Idon't see her getting snubbed.
Could there possibly be somepeople in the Academy who are a
little bit, um, kind of avoidinga you know sort of making that
history because it would maybepossibly bring the conversation
into neutral, uh gender neutralcategories.
(04:55):
Who knows, possibly somethinglike that could possibly happen.
Um, but right now I find her tobe very safe and in probably one
of the safest films incontention this year.
And it gets tricky after that,after those three which I firmly
feel are going to get in, thenit gets tough.
I would like to bring up inthis conversation of best
(05:18):
actress that not since 1970 hasthere been a best actress lineup
that didn't include a veteran.
1970 was the last time.
And even more strangely, beforethen, after then I should say
(05:39):
after 1970, every year hasincluded two at least veterans
in the lineup.
Joseph (05:47):
So are you saying strangely or prophetically?
Jules (05:50):
Either way, but that's something that is very striking,
that this -
Joseph (05:56):
That's a lot of time, since 1970.
Jules (05:58):
This category has found a way to include at least two
veterans in this category, whichis very remarkable.
There were years pre-1970 wherethere were a single, there was
a single veteran nominee in thecategory you had mentioned
earlier.
Joseph (06:17):
I think 1966 with Elizabeth Taylor winning for
Virginia Woolf.
That year only had one veteranand it was the winner.
Elizabeth Taylor, she won.
And the other nominees were allnewbies.
I'll tell you something elsethat was striking about that
list as we go further on intoour discussions, but it's
happened before too.
I think there was a year in the50s maybe that saw maybe one
(06:43):
veteran, or all new girls too,but for the most part, you're
going to see two veterans in the70s, certainly two veterans in
the 80s, two veterans in the 90s, two veterans in the aughts and
in 2010 forward.
It's really that one year in1970 that had nobody, and from
1960, I think you had again thatone year with Elizabeth Taylor
(07:07):
as the only veteran.
So it's very a lot of historyon the side of two veterans here
.
Jules (07:13):
Right, exactly.
And I will say, jumping off ofthat, that if you look at the
contenders that managed to getSAG and BAFTA, there are two
veterans that stand out.
Cynthia Erivo in Wicked hasgotten everything as a precursor
PerfectFor precursors she's been
perfect.
And Marianne Jean-Baptistemanaged, thank God, to get a
(07:34):
spot at the BAFTA for BestActress for Hard Truths.
.
Less than perfectRight.
She's also the trifecta winner.
She won the Los Angeles FilmCritics, the New York Film
Critics Circle and the NationalSociety of Film Critics.
I believe that there's onlybeen one actor, female actor,
who's won all three and not goneon to get a nomination, and I
think that was for a Mike Leighfilm and I think that was Sally
(07:55):
Hawkins.
Prophetic, possibly.
Possibly prophetic.
There's there's also the issuethat Mike mike Leigh lee hasn't
really gotten his actors inunless he's also been a nominee
for Best Director.
That's also something to keepin mind, but in general, those
would be the two veterans thatstand out most to get those last
two veteran spots.
However, the contender who'sreally complicating things in
(08:20):
this category is Fernando Torres, for Brazil's I'm Still Here,
which was a huge box officesuccess You have to think -
A shoe- shoe in, also a shoe infor foreign.
Exactly exactly, it's a shoe infor foreign film, but you have
to think that because theinternational community is so
much more uh, you know, involvedin Oscar oscar race, you know
(08:40):
it matters that it was such abig hit Brazil brazil.
Um, the foreign voters, some ofthem, are watching that movie.
She just won Golden Globesurprisingly surprisingly, even
though we called it, and soshe's really making things
complicated here because, asGolden Globe globe drama winner,
she should be guaranteed a spot.
(09:01):
There's already a foreignperformance in this lineup Karla
Sofia Gascon gascon.
Could that come into as As toFernanda Torres torres is left
out, um, I don't know, but sheshould technically be almost
guaranteed a spot with GoldenGlobe globe win.
But in the event that she wereto get in and, uh, we feel
pretty confident Demi Moore,Mikey Madison madison Karla
(09:23):
Sofia Gascon gascon she wouldactually have to get in over a
veteran.
J.
(09:46):
L L J
Joseph (09:27):
Possibly, over Sally Hawkins.
Jules (09:28):
She would have to get in over a Mike veteran Leigh and so
it means she's either.
(10:09):
getting in over MarianjaBaptiste or she's getting in
over Cynthia Erivo, and theyboth have pros and cons.
We mentioned some.
For Marianja Baptiste, whogives one of the best, best,
maybe possibly the bestperformance of the year in hard
truths, she's absolutelyvolcanic and, um, incredible,
and you know that's a uh, a featof a performance, um, but she's
in a mike lee film and mike leedoesn't tend to get his actors
in, unless he's getting nine forbest director at least possibly
by herself as well she couldpossibly be by herself, because
mike lee might miss the thescreenplay category.
Um, and sally hawkins was in asimilar position.
Joseph (10:13):
She also was the trifecta winner for a mike lee
film and she didn't get in, andso well, one thing we've talked
about marianne Jean-Baptistegoing for her is that, you know,
throw on to that idea of atrifecta winner from Mike Lee
not being able to go thedistance and, you know, get
(10:34):
nominated for actress, and thatwas with a Golden Globe win for
comedy.
Jules (10:38):
That was Sally Hawkins right.
Joseph (10:39):
And a SAG snub right, which that's what Marianne
Jean-Baptiste has this year.
She has a SAG snub right, whichthat's what Marion
Jean-Baptiste has this year.
She has a SAG snub, the onlyedge.
Jules (10:46):
And a Globe snub.
Joseph (10:47):
And a Globe snub.
But the only edge that MarionJean-Baptiste has is that she is
a former nominee.
Jules (10:53):
Exactly, that's her biggest, that's the biggest
weapon that she yields.
That unlike Sally Hawkins, whowas left out, and unlike, for
example, leslie Manville, whohad an opportunity with Another
Year, another Mike Lee film,another great Mike Lee film and
when she was left out.
Mary-angele Baptiste is a pastnominee.
The last time she was on herewas for a Mike Lee film called
(11:14):
Secrets and Lies in thesupporting category, so it's a
category shift.
It's been so many years sinceher last nomination.
I'm sure there are actors in thevoting branch who remember her
performance, who remember her asan actor.
She's continued to work sincethen in various different types
of films and projects, and sothis is really a welcome
opportunity to bring her back infor a performance that is
(11:39):
unlike anything you've seen fromher as of now probably the
performance of her career thusfar, and so you can't help but
think that there are members inthe Academy that are going to
feel that they want to championthat and they want to award that
.
Going also against her is thatpossibly her character can be
unlikable to a certain extent.
Joseph (11:59):
It's a Mike Lee character.
Yeah, it's a very dimensionalcharacter.
Jules (12:01):
Yeah, but it might be a demanding character in the sense
that you might struggle to sortof penetrate those layers.
Joseph (12:09):
Empathize.
Jules (12:09):
Empathize, et cetera, et cetera, and that might be
something that is tricky for her.
So those are the cons that aregoing for against her.
And looking at Cynthia Erivo,who's the other veteran
contender here, she has pros andcons going for her as well and
going against her as well.
Um, one of them being thefantasy musicals.
As we said similarly withariana grande, they don't tend
(12:31):
to land in acting categories.
Um also is the fact that shewas recently nominated, just
five years ago, for harriet.
Um, that was a nomination thatshe didn't need to be nominated
for.
Joseph (12:44):
It was a competitive.
Yeah, it was a competitive year, right?
Jules (12:47):
And she landed that nomination for playing Harriet
Tubman.
She actually landed twonominations that year for
actress and for a songwritingcredit, and so there might not
be an urge for the Academy tofeel like they need to nominate
Cynthia Rievel this time around,that they can wait a little
longer.
It's not a category shift.
(13:08):
She's going from lead to lead.
Joseph (13:09):
Which is tough, which is tough to do, you know not
enough of a cycle has happened.
Jules (13:14):
Again if you want to know more about that, visit some of
our earlier episodes when we'retalking about these patterns and
trends in the acting categories.
Not enough of a cycle hashappened yet.
It's only been five years.
The part two of it, all the parttwo of it all I think might be
something that makes it lessattractive to voters, and so she
has a lot of cons going againsther.
One of the pros is that she isa past nominee, yeah, and so
(13:38):
there's a certain respect thatis attached to her name as a
previous nominee.
But Wicked is a huge successand it stands to certainly get
an eye for Best Picture and getseveral nominations, so that's
going for her.
Joseph (13:50):
The fact that it's a musical is something not going
for her right, Because youalready have a musical spot
there.
Jules (13:55):
You already have another musical spot here.
Similarly, like SupportingActress, it's rare for you to
see two different types ofmusicals nominated in the same
acting category, and it'scertainly rare to see it happen
twice in a year.
So Cynthia Erivo, I think, has,interestingly enough, more cons
(14:16):
than pros, and someone likeMarianne Jean-Baptiste that
possibly stands a better chanceand that maybe her film was
certainly more seen by Americanvoters than Heart Truth might've
been.
Joseph (14:27):
Yeah, Don't forget that Heart Truth is being distributed
by Bleeker Street, which hashad some success in the acting
categories, but very, very fewsuccess stories from Bleeker
Street.
And then also I just want tomention, as we talk about this,
British Academy.
There were no saves this year.
There were no jury saves yeah sothese nominees were the top
(14:48):
vote getters right from theacting branch as a whole, and
that actually, I think, bodesreally well for both cynthia
revo and marianne jean-baptistebut certainly marianne
jean-baptiste, because even inthe uk a mike lee film getting
nominated for anything is nevera given there.
Jules (15:04):
Right, exactly, sally Hawkins missed for.
Joseph (15:07):
Happy Go Lucky.
Jules (15:09):
So I think there's a certain strength to this
contender that maybe not enoughpeople are looking at.
I'm really happy that she gotthat BAFTA nomination.
I think she needed that BAFTAnomination.
I have a hard time thinkingabout the last time that someone
a contender got a BAFTAnomination and won the trifecta
(15:31):
and didn't get nominated.
Joseph (15:33):
That's interesting because Leslie Manville, I know,
got nominated for a BAFTA foranother year, but she did not
win the trifecta Exactly, andSally Hawkins won the trifecta
but didn't get nominated for aBAFTA.
Yes.
Jules (15:43):
So, in a way, and then considering the strength of that
performance, I think all actorshave to do is watch it to place
it high on their ballot.
And she's a past nominee whohasn't been there for a very
long time, so I'm just feelinggood about this nomination for
Mary Jane Baptiste.
The thing that I'm feeling lesssure about is if fernanda
(16:04):
torres can spoil the spot forcynthia or if really cynthia
revo and the strength of wickedoverall ends up spoiling, uh,
fernanda torres's chances,despite a golden globe win well,
I mean, we have the goldenglobe win, we have a massive
success in brazil, we have umthe daughter of f, fernanda
(16:25):
Montenegro.
And so we talk about the Marion.
Joseph (16:28):
Jean-Baptiste revenge tour from Secret and Lies.
We have the Fernanda Torresrevenge tour for her mother in
Central Station with Walter Syas the director, and I'll tell
you what we're missing some realpeople here.
And Fernanda Torres has that inspades Right?
Jules (16:44):
Yeah, this category should like all the other
categories.
There should be someone real inthis category, a real life
figure.
Absolutely An actor, that'srepresenting a real life figure
and we're missing that.
We thought we would have thatwith Angelina Jolie for Maria.
Joseph (16:57):
Or.
Jules (16:57):
Kate, or Kate Winslet for Lee, or even Saoirse Ronan for
the Out.
Run.
That's all sort of kind of beendismantled, and so the best
we've got is Fernanda Torres andI'm still here, which is no
small thing, because again, it'sa big hit in Brazil.
Joseph (17:13):
Yeah, and again, as people have seen it, I will
double down and say that if youwatch that film after the Golden
Globe, you can be perfect andthen some it is a very difficult
performance to overcome.
Right can be perfect and thensome it is a very difficult
performance to overcome right.
It is such compelling material,it is such a compelling story
and it is such a nuancedperformance that at that also
(17:33):
sort of in a way, is alsoextremely loud, and how quiet it
is and how soft it is that I'mtelling you you can be demi more
and win every single trophyfrom here to the Oscars, and
Fernanda Torres can be absent ofall the nominations and you can
still lose to Fernanda Torres.
Right.
Right.
So I think that another factorgoing for her is the Sony
(17:56):
Picture Classics element.
Right yeah.
And that was not nominated fora BAFTA.
But you know, who was nominatedfor a BAFTA was a Sony Picture
Classics girl, and that'sSaoirse Ronan.
And so why don't we talk alittle bit about we talked about
Cynthia Erivo as a vet, butSaoirse Ronan is a vet too.
And she got in from the BritishAcademy.
Jules (18:15):
Yeah, I would love for that to happen.
I think she gives one of thebest performances of the year.
That being said, I do feel it'sa bit quiet and, unlike Marion
de Baptiste, you know, saoirseRonan is often in the Oscar
conversation.
They may feel that a fifthnomination at her age I think
she's just barely 30 might be abit much, especially if maybe
(18:35):
she's not in it to win it, so tospeak.
So you know, I think that'sgoing against Saoirse Ronan
maybe she won't break her bestpicture streak.
Joseph (18:43):
She tends to get nominated with a film that's
nominated against Saoirse Ronan.
Jules (18:45):
Maybe she won't break her best picture streak Right?
She tends to get nominated witha film that's nominated for
best picture.
She's never been nominated byherself completely, which is
what she would be if she gotnominated for the Outrun.
So, and on paper, Kate Winsletand Lee would sound up the rally
because of who she's playing.
I think the Baptist snub andthe Sax snub are indicative.
Joseph (19:05):
Angelina as well again.
Jules (19:06):
Oh yeah, huge snubs there .
Joseph (19:08):
Yeah, unlike Kate, she hasn't been nominated since 2008
, which feels like an eternity.
Her movie was shortlisted formakeup.
We know makeup likes to rewardsome real life people, so maybe
she wouldn't get in by herself.
And you had already earlier onin this podcast you had
(19:40):
positioned Maria as lookout for,you know, Angelina Jolie to
possibly miss some dealing withother things that had nothing to
do with movies or Oscars.
Maybe there's enough of aninternational faction to get her
in.
She's not on that BAFTA longlist but she is, you know, known
globally.
And again, if the wildfiresmade every race sort of stop at
(20:00):
the Golden Globes, right.
Because that's more or lessbefore everything got out of
hand.
If that's the case, then shewas still in a relatively strong
position at that point Right.
And she could also be the realfactor, right, the real
individual on this list, right,right.
So she, like Kate Winslet, areplaying that same card, but
unlike Kate Winslet, she's beenwaiting a little bit longer,
(20:32):
Right, longer, right 100, Iagree.
Um, and then someone likepamela anderson got in for the
screen actors guild award aheadof angelina jolie and ahead of
kate winslet and ahead of sirsharonan yeah not surprised to
see her ahead of fernando torres.
it's a more of an internationalperformance.
I'm not sure the committeereally prioritized watching it,
but I do think that it'simportant that you know Pamela
Anderson was able to sort ofmake that finish line.
It shows some some you knowshe's going to have some votes
(20:55):
for sure.
The Jamie Lee Curtis mentionedat BAFTA is going to is going to
show that people are watchingthat film.
But I think it also serves asthis idea that these strong sort
of iconic actresses and thesestrong performances they're
running second to PamelaAnderson and they're happy to
sort of embrace her and championher and sort of put her on a
pedestal celebrating the workshe's done, even if she does not
(21:18):
have the career of AngelinaJolie or Kate Winslet.
Which brings me to my finalpoint that I wanted to bring up.
When we're looking at both theBritish Academy and the Guild to
sort of help mold that finallist is here's what I'm noticing
If you look at the SAG list,how many veterans do you have
that are previous Oscar nomineesIn the SAG list At the Screen
(21:41):
Actors Guild?
One.
Only one right, cynthia Erivo,and if you look at the BAFTA
list, you have three newbiesright.
You have who everyone ispegging, which is Demi Moore,
carla and Mikey, and you havethree veterans right, but BAFTA
has never nominated CynthiaErivo, and so technically that's
sort of a new person for.
BAFTA to be nominating Right,and so what calls my attention
(22:04):
is that, and in terms of the SAG, you're getting one Oscar
nominee in Cynthia Erivo, butyou're getting four non-Oscar
nominees and, I believe, fourfirst-time SAG nominees.
I'm not sure if Demi Moore hasbeen nominated individually
before.
And, in terms of the BAFTA,you're getting three previous
Oscar nominees Saoirse, marionand Cynthia but you're getting
(22:26):
four first-time BAFTA nominees,but you're getting four
first-time BAFTA nominees.
So I'm thinking that the energyright now is for the idea of
including four new actresses,sort of mimicking 1966.
Jules (22:38):
We talked about that with .
Joseph (22:39):
Elizabeth Taylor in who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf.
I'm thinking that's going to bethe best comparison for what
this list ends up looking like.
Jules (22:47):
Right, and there's something interesting about that
year.
Joseph (22:49):
Right.
The other fascinating thingabout that year is not only was
there just one veteran, which isa rarity.
Jules (22:55):
And she won, and she won.
Joseph (22:57):
Elizabeth Taylor.
She won In a performance that Ithink we can make some
interesting comparisons,possibly between her and Demi
Moore in the Substance could bekind of an interesting
conversation to have.
Jules (23:06):
But you have two foreign language performances nominated
that same year, which is notsomething that happens often, at
all Not at all.
Joseph (23:13):
You had the performance from the Shop on Main Street and
the performance from A man anda Woman.
I believe Both of them werenominated.
Does not happen very often, ontheir first nomination,
potentially seeing only oneveteran get in and two foreign
language performances get in, ifCarla and Fernanda manage to
(23:35):
stay in the top five.
Jules (23:36):
Right, a hundred percent.
I think that that was an eerieparallel that we found going
backwards and really mimics thisparticular category this season
, and so I think really we'reboth on the money, that we feel
like Demi Moore, mikey Madison,carlos, sofia Gascon and
Fernanda Torres will be there.
It's really a question about,at the end of the day, will
(23:59):
Marianne Jean-Baptiste be ableto overcome Cynthia Erivo and
Wicked Right.
Joseph (24:04):
I think that is the question most people are posing.
But I'm sorry, I really likethe whole revenge tour theme.
I think that's a thing thisyear what I really like is a
trifecta winner and a baftanominee that's great and, like I
said, no, bafta saves this timeand we know that hartruves was
in typical, you know bafta andmajor, you know award body
(24:26):
fashion was not liked enough toget the wonderful uh, her
wonderful co-star.
Michelle Austin nominated, butit was liked enough to get
Marianne Jean-Baptiste nominatedand I think that's important.
Jules (24:39):
Right, exactly, and so for my final predictions, I'm
going to go with Demi Moore, thesubstance, Mikey Madison, Anora
Carlos Sofia Gascon, EmiliaPerez, Fernanda Torres I'm still
here.
And Marian Madison, OnoraCarlos Sofia Gascon, Emilia
Perez, Fernanda Torres I'm Stillhere.
And Marianne Jean-Baptiste forHard Truths, and my spoiler is
going to be Cynthia Erivo, forWicked.
Joseph (24:58):
I think that that is the only way to go.
Really, I think I would go DemiMoore for the Substance, mikey
Madison for Onora Carlos, sofiaGascon for Emilia Perez Making
History.
Fernanda Torres I'm Still hereRevenge Tour for Her Mother and
Central Station, and MarionJean-Baptiste Heart Truth
Revenge Tour for Secret and Lies, and Mike Lee Exactly.
And then my spoiler I think isCynthia Erivo.
(25:19):
I think this is a shoe-innomination for Cynthia Erivo,
had she missed.
Harriet had she missed Harriet.
Had she been snubbed there?
Yeah, had she been snubbedthere?
Yeah, had she been snubbedthere, I would have bet my life
that she would have scored abest actress nomination for
either part one or part two,right Exactly.
Jules (25:35):
And so those are final predictions for this very hotly
contested best actress category.
I think, no matter what happens, you know, expect to be
surprised by someone orsomeone's who are left out.
Yeah.
Unfortunately, we'll see whathappens, and that's our dive
into our final predictions forBest Actress.
(25:56):
Okay, moving on to the categoryof Best Director, I think this
race has really calcified aswell, like some of the other
above the line categories, andso we have just a number of
people to pick from here, and Iwould say that, in reality, for
me, maybe there are about sevencontenders that I think could
(26:17):
possibly happen, and I feelmostly that it's really between
six personally for me.
Um, let's look at who.
We went over in our previousepisode of the dga that the
nominees were brady corbett, forthe brutalists, sean baker for
honora, jacques odier, familiaparis, edward berger for
conclave and james mangled forcomplete unknown all first time
(26:40):
nominees at the director's guildaward and potentially all
first-time oscar nominees in thecategory of best Director.
Correct the DGA didn't have aveteran spot.
Joseph (26:51):
They opted out of one.
Jules (26:52):
There's oftentimes more often than not a veteran that
gets a spot here in BestDirector.
And for the BAFTA we had BradyCorbett for the Brutalist, sean
Baker for Honora, jacquesAudillard for Amelia Perez,
edward Berger for Conclave,coralie Fargeat for the
Substance and Denis Villeneuvefor Doom Part II.
Joseph (27:11):
So no James Mangold from the DGA, and Coralie Fargeat
and Denis Villeneuve in.
Jules (27:18):
Exactly, and so really I feel that the five for the
Oscars will be between those twogroups and, to be honest, I
feel pretty good about BradyCorbet for the Brutalist, and
Sean Baker and Onora, andJacques Cotillard for Amelia
Perez and Edward Berger forConclave.
I feel pretty solid about thosefour.
It's really that last spot forme, and I'm right now between
(27:43):
following the DGA5 and goingwith James Mangle for Complete
Unknown, who's been nominatedhere previously as a writer and
as a producer.
Joseph (27:51):
Who would be nominated this year for producing and
writing a Complete Unknown aswell.
Jules (27:55):
Exactly, and the only person that I think could spoil
this is an actual veteran whocould spoil this list as an
actual veteran, and that's DenisVilleneuve in Dune Part 2, who
was left out of the Guild thisyear but did make it in for the
Guild in 2021 for Dune Part 2,who was left out of the guild
this year but did make it in forthe guild in 2021 for Dune as
opposed to the Academy, where hedid not get nominated for the
(28:17):
guild.
And so I go back and forththinking will the Academy feel
like, because they snubbed himfrom the first one and he only
has one nomination for arrivaland his name is so reputable now
, will they feel like they wantto give him a feather in his cap
for the achievement that wasthe entirety of Dune and give
(28:38):
him a nomination for BestDirector finally for this
franchise?
Or will they say well, you know, I didn't nominate him for Dune
Part 1.
I'm not going to nominate himfor Dune Part 2.
I want to see somethingnon-franchise related.
I hear that he's going to makemore Dune movies, so that's a
problem.
(28:58):
Maybe I don't have to nominatehim right now.
Joseph (29:02):
And you can nominate him for Part 3 or however many
parts there are.
I definitely think that the Part1 of it all and the part two of
it all is an issue.
Listen, the DGA.
They're going to try to put aveteran as often as possible,
and so the fact that they leftoff Denevil New, I think, is
really bad news.
He's not doing anything herethat he didn't do in part one.
(29:23):
I think it's going to be verydifficult for him to win this
category without that DGA.
I think it's going to be verydifficult for him to win this
category without that DGA.
And if you kind of think aboutit, if he does not win this
category and gets nominated foran Academy Award this year,
(29:44):
he'll be two nominations in, andthat ties Christopher Nolan who
has a win?
And that surpasses Guillermo delToro and that's already
surpassing Greta Gerwig.
So I really think that thedirectors here might be a little
bit more selective and decideto leave him off for both films.
That's what I'm thinking rightnow.
I'm thinking that if the DGAwent veteranless, that this
(30:06):
Academy branch is going to goveteran list.
this academy branch, I wouldargue, is even pickier than the
dga, right they're going to seethat dj list and they're going
to swap out for some more uniquechoices, more international
choices, right, more politicallycharged choices they may do
that in other years previousright.
And then it's kind of shockingbecause if there's one director
that has been talked up by thebigger names in the industry,
(30:29):
like Steven Spielberg andChristopher Nolan right it would
be Danilo new, you know um.
So I I understand where you'recoming from, but I think that
that DGA snub might have beenthe final nail in the coffin for
Danilo new scoring a nod hereright I.
Jules (30:46):
I think it's a good sign that he got Nami at BAFTAs.
We don't know exactly whatnumber he was, but he may have
been number five.
Over the next person we'll talkabout Coralie Fargeat for the
Substance.
I think people are feelingpretty confident about her
getting in this year.
I'm not as confident, I thinkCoralie Fargeat getting
(31:07):
nominated for a film like theSubstance, which again stands to
make waves this Oscar season,by being embraced because it's a
genre film and it's totally notthe thing they go for.
Joseph (31:17):
Mubi's first film too.
Jules (31:18):
Mubi's first film.
So seeing the Substancenominated or Coralie Fargeau
nominated for as a producer, asa director and as a writer and
possibly as an editor, it justseems like too much for a film.
That's sort of breaking groundin a way, and so I don't like
her for this nomination.
I think director's branch isvery picky about the women
filmmakers that they let intothis category.
(31:39):
Last year we did have a femalefilmmaker, but not the one that
most people thought.
Or Celine Song, either Exactly,and they could have done two
that year.
So I think they're very pickyand I think their pickiness is
going to go to the top fivefilms, the films they thought
were the top five films of theyear.
Right.
And so because I think a filmlike A Complete Unknown has that
(32:01):
sort of coveted spot oversomething like the Substance is
why I give the edge to people,to someone like James Mangold.
I don't think Carly Fargeau inthe Substance sort of occupies
that same level of stature.
James Mangold has been workingfor a long time and he's never
been nominated as a director,and this would be an opportunity
to do so.
(32:23):
Carly Fargeau for some of thesedirectors it's the first time
they're seeing her.
I don't know how many of themsaw her first film, Revenge.
We already have a first-timeron here who's only had three
films.
I'm unsure how many of thosefilms the director's branch has
already seen with Brady Corbett.
Sean Baker's a newbie, JacquesAudillard, has been working for
(32:45):
a very long time as well, butfor the first time he's going to
be recognized by this branch.
Edward Berger this is sort ofthe second film that most of
them are seeing after Alcoy onthe Western Front.
So putting Carly Fergeau onthis list feels like a little
overkill in terms of newness.
Joseph (32:58):
Yeah, I could see that.
Jules (33:00):
That's what I'm thinking, and the other person that
people are possiblycontemplating is Rommel Ross for
Nickel Boys.
A beautiful job by romell ross,certainly a very talented,
ambitious, experimental,exciting filmmaker.
Unfortunately, I just think thefilm is way too ambitious yeah
and experimental for this branch.
Uh, to penetrate, to penetratethis branch.
(33:22):
I think the nickel boys mainprize will be a screenplay
nomination hopefully it's abridge too far.
Joseph (33:29):
Um, at this point, from romeel Ross, who did an amazing
job, but I do not think that hewill end up being nominated.
So I mean, is there anyone youhaven't talked about, or are you
comfortable with just thosenames?
Jules (33:41):
I'm comfortable with just those names.
I know there's someone thatyou're eager to talk about.
Joseph (33:45):
Well, I will say, that is that I look at that DGA list
and I'm dissatisfied.
I will say that is that I lookat that DGA list and I'm
dissatisfied and I think aboutreplacing James Mangold, who I
think most people would replaceout of those five Right, because
they think that Conclave,emilia Perez and Nora on the
blue list are so far ahead interms of cementing themselves in
Best Picture and Best Directorand I replace James.
(34:11):
Mangold with the veteran DenisVillis venu, and I'm also
dissatisfied right, I thinkdirectors are at the academy,
are notoriously picky and Idon't think that they're going
to want to do spectacle for duneright anything with a part is
probably not going to benominated is what I'm thinking.
and then I think about replacingdeniseneuve and James Mangold
for Carly Fargeant, and I'mstill dissatisfied.
(34:31):
I think you have way too manycon movies.
I think it would have needed towin the Palme d'Or to cement
that sort of position there.
I think the substance is in areally interesting place because
it's sort of in between the twofilms last year, greta Gerwig's
Barbie and Justine Trillet'sAnatomy of a Fall.
(34:52):
It's a French film, it's a confilm like Anatomy of a Fall.
It's somewhat of a populistfilm, somewhat of a film that
rewards the general movie-goingaudience, somewhat of a
spectacle film and not, you know, the sort of austere,
dialogue-driven,performance-driven piece that
Anatomy of a Fall is.
(35:14):
And so, because it's in thisweird place of both of those, I
think it's not spectaclefinancial success enough to be a
nominee in this category forsomething like Barbie, and I
don't think it's austere enoughto be a nominee in this category
for something like Anatomy of aFall.
There's too much of a genrebent to it, so I'm sort of
(35:35):
dissatisfied with that too.
I think, honestly, there's roomfor one conventional movie and
we have two at the DGA andthat's either Conclave with
Edward Berger or A CompleteUnknown with James Mangold.
I like that.
At that DJ list you do not havea veteran, but you have someone
(35:55):
who's been working since the 90s, someone who's done Copland and
Heavy and Girl Interrupted andgotten, you know, oscar
nominations for his performances, been nominated in the editing
field and the sound field andthe costume field, and I think
this is the project for him toget in.
I think to me it sort ofmirrors Taylor Hackford.
(36:17):
He got a lot of attention in1982 for an officer and a
gentleman and he was finallyable to break through and be
nominated for Ray and he wouldgo on to be, I think, president
of the DGA for quite a while andI think James Mangold holds so
much respect amongst his peersfor being able to do musical and
comedy and biography and actionfilm and superhero film and all
(36:42):
different kinds of genres rightat all different kinds of
budget levels, whether it'sCopland or Night and Day or
Logan, whatever, I can see himbeing president of the DGA at
some point in his career.
And so I think this is the filmfor him to get in, and so I'm
going to say that there is noveteran and that James Mangold
would get in there instead ofthe veteran.
(37:03):
But I still don't like the ideaof these two sort of
conventional pieces of Conclaveand James Mangold there.
So I think the controversialthing that's going to end up
happening is that Edward Bergeris not going to make it in for
Conclave because he just doesnot have the filmography of Sean
Baker or Jacques Garriard.
It does not make sense to benominating them at the same time
(37:24):
.
Sure, his filmography rivals,you know, brady Corbett's but
brady corbett is a writer,director, and brady corbett is
shooting in vista vision, andyou can already tell that he's
going to be the kind ofuncompromising filmmaker that
the director's branch is goingto nominate time and time again.
I think edward berger is goingto be sort of like denis venu,
(37:44):
who's not necessarily going tobe known for his writing but
who's going to be able todeliver a compelling, dramatic
visual piece that is wellaccomplished sonically and
thematically and visually.
But I don't think this is thefilm yet.
I don't think this is the filmyet.
I think, looking at this list,you're going to see Conclave be
possibly the most nominated filmof the year and miss this one
(38:08):
huge nomination which throws thewhole winner argument into
disarray.
And so here's who I do like forit.
I've always been in the positionthat this is a very picky
branch and the one person who Ithink has been working here
forever, who's taken a bit of abreak but who's come out with a
(38:28):
film who I think is going toresonate politically with so
much of this branch, is WalterSaez, for I'm Still here and I
think he's the one who I thinkmakes the most sense If I'm
going to have a list with noveteran.
I like the idea of puttingWalter Saez in there, who's been
working as long as any veteranhas and has never gotten in, and
(38:49):
James Mangold, for the exactsame reason.
Jules (38:52):
Right, I think that's a fascinating case and certainly
you bring up a lot of goodpoints about how Edward Berger
could possibly be snubbed forConclave.
I think it's certainly worthconsidering.
I think that's certainly worthconsidering.
I think that's a strong case.
I think Walter Saez, from I'mStill here, is a very strong
case.
Right now I'm going to stickwith James Mangold and I'm going
to say it's the five from theDGA and my spoiler.
Joseph (39:14):
You know, based on what you were saying, maybe I'm going
to say that my spoiler isWalter Saez, from I'm Still here
.
I'm telling you, I think thatwhen you look at this list of
nominees, walter Saez, alongwith James Mangold, but
certainly Walter Saez as sort ofan international figure in
filmmaking, he stands out.
He really does stand out, and Ithink Sony Pictures might be
(39:34):
able to work its magic again.
And the field is sort ofthere's just too much new talent
here that is going to benominated eventually.
I'm just not sure it makes senseto be nominating Sean Baker and
Corley at the same time JacquesArillard and Edward Berger at
the same time Jacques Arillardand James Mangold.
That makes sense.
It makes sense to be nominatingthem at the same time, you know
.
But if I have to pick one pieceof talent to be nominated right
(39:58):
now, it would be Brady Corbett,because he checks so many of
the boxes.
But I'm just not sure I see allthese young filmmakers being
nominated at the same time whenmangled and walter size have yet
to be nominated.
And the same thing withdennyville knew a second
nomination for him, possiblywithout a win, when we haven't
nominated mangled or walter sizeonce right.
Jules (40:18):
one thing that keeps me hesitant about walter size, now
that you're speaking aboutspeaking on it is that, since
we're not 100% sure thatFernanda Torres will definitely
get nominated we believe thatshe will and we're pretty
certain about it, but not 100%sure there's a reality where I'm
Still here disappointinglywalks out with just one
nomination for Best Foreign Film.
(40:39):
So I feel a little bit hesitantto put it for too many places.
And what if it doesn't getnominated director and instead
it gets a surprise nominationfor screenplay, which is
something within the realm ofpossibility too and instead it's
screenplay and not director, sothere's just too many variables
for me to feel super confidentin, but I think you bring up a
good case, and so your five areBrady Corbett, jack ODR, sean
(41:02):
Baker, james Mangold and WalterSaez.
Joseph (41:05):
Yeah.
Jules (41:06):
And your spoiler.
Joseph (41:07):
And my spoiler is going to be Denevo New, if they really
want that veteran.
Jules (41:11):
All right, and then let's move on to the final category,
the best picture, the milliondollar baby, so to speak.
So they say and so honestly,this is a almost complete list.
I think we have eight very,very, very likely contenders and
(41:34):
so really it's only about thoselast two spots, and even then I
feel pretty good about who I'mputting at number nine.
So for me it's more about who'sgoing to get that last spot.
Yeah, and so let's just runthrough it quickly.
Emilia paris I expect to be afully, uh, very, uh, several
nominations on oscar nominationmorning conclave possibly the
most nominated film.
Um, alongside emilia paris, thebrutalist anora, a complete
(41:58):
unknown dune part Substance.
And for me, the number ninefilm is A Real Pain.
Some people are a little bitiffy on it.
I am not convinced by itscompetition.
Sing Sing, nickel Boys I justdon't think they're mustering
enough presence strength to beatsomething like A Real Pain,
which is a charming, accessible,likable film that is going to
(42:24):
get nominated for screenplay andis going to get nominated and
possibly win Best SupportingActor.
When you think about films thatare Best Screenplay nominees and
possibly an acting winner,you're going to have a hard time
finding a movie that fits thatcategory that doesn't get nine
for best picture in a year of 10I think we left for it exactly
(42:47):
now, if it had been, you know,less than a year of 10, 5, 6 7,
10 sure, then possibly it gets,it misses, but in a year we have
to get 10 spots and you have avery strong best supporting
actor likely winner and abonafide Best Screenplay nominee
.
Count on that film rounding outthe list and getting that
(43:08):
number nine spot.
We did look back, as you said.
One that we found was ReginaKing when she won for If Beale
Street Could Talk.
That movie was not nominatedfor Best Film.
Joseph (43:19):
But there was only eight spots.
Jules (43:20):
Right, it was nominated for Best Screenplay.
However, was only eight spots?
Right?
It did.
It was nominated for bestscreenplay.
However, as you just said,there was only eight spots and
it's very likely that in theyear of 10, it would have been
nominated.
Joseph (43:28):
There's every reason to believe that it would have been
either spot nine or spot number10 and same thing with something
like blue jasmine, which got abest actress winner um and was
nine for best screenplay and itwasn't nominated.
Jules (43:40):
But again, there were not 10 spots there were nine spots
yeah, in a year of 10, it's verylikely that blue jasmine would
have rounded out that list veryso the possibilities of real
pain rounding out this list atnumber nine are very strong or
very high, so I think it's abona fide number nine the only
thing I don't like about itwhich we can touch upon is the
idea that fox searchlight getstwo spots.
Joseph (44:01):
If a complete unknown had not worked out, the fox
searchlight factor would haveguaranteed a real, a real pain a
spot.
Here I still think you're right.
It's in very good territory,especially when you compare it
to its competition.
Look, here's a film nominatedfor the golden globes, made the
pga top 10, which is the bestbarometer here, but also, you
know, nominated for the editorsguild.
Right, it didn't need to benominated at the sag guild,
(44:22):
unlike some, some of these othertitles, and so I think it has
enough wide support to make itonto this list.
Jules (44:29):
Right, and so really, I think we're both, just like most
people, figuring out who's thatlast spot, and there are a few
contenders to look at.
Some people are going for SingSing, some people are going for
Nickel Boys.
Interestingly enough, they bothgot snuffed from the PGA.
Joseph (44:45):
And the other nine that we've mentioned are PGA nominees
.
Jules (44:47):
Exactly On top of that, Sing Sing really underperformed
at the SAG, which was reallysurprising to me.
It only got one nomination andNickel Boys didn't get any
nomination.
They both underperformed at theBAFTA.
Nickel Boys has one nomination,Sing Sing has three, which
isn't so bad, but certainly notthe kind of contender that I
think A24 initially had in mindfor this film.
So some people are pickingbetween those two.
(45:09):
I say the opposite.
I think they're both in similarterrain and they cancel each
other out and that's why neitherwill get nominated.
Some people are thinking I'mStill here could surprise for
Best Picture.
Maybe another foreign film.
Like All we Imagine is Light,maybe a summer hit.
Super critically acclaimed film, one of the best films of the
year Challengers Surprising here.
(45:31):
Can we shout out Nosferatu,Nosferatu which stands to get
several technical nominations.
Joseph (45:37):
If anyone deserves two nominations in terms of
distributors, it's FocusFeatures this year Exactly
exactly Technical nominationsfor Nosferatu.
Jules (45:48):
He could easily go from four to five and get that best
picture nomination.
Joseph (45:50):
I mean, it's again not the kind of film they go for for
best picture.
Jules (45:52):
Some quote-unquote experts are pitching juror
number two, also right jurornumber two variety is saying
they've talked to some memberswho keep mentioning that movie.
Joseph (45:58):
Maybe that movie gets nominated for uh best picture
and that's it well where thosevoters been is where I'm asking,
as a farewell to clint eastwood, and that's it.
Well, where have those votersbeen?
Is where I'm asking.
Jules (46:05):
As a farewell to Clint Eastwood.
I think that's within the realmof possibility.
It would be a surprise, butthat's there.
And then I'm going to say thatwhen we're looking at Best
Picture, the way that I like tolook at it is, if we're coming
up with 10 spots, your place tolook in order to find the
contenders that are going toround that list is pretty simple
Look at the films that gotnominated for director, for
(46:29):
acting, for screenplay.
Your last remaining spot shouldbe among those films, and the
category that I particularlylike to look at to fill that
spot of those three branches isactually the screenplay spot,
because most of these filmsshould be nominated for
(46:50):
screenplay if they're going tobe best picture list of 10.
Most of those 10 films shouldbe a best screenplay nominee.
Maybe leave out one, maybeleave out two, that's about it.
So most of them should.
So that draws my eye to onecontender that I think stands a
very good chance of making alate sprint into that fifth
(47:10):
screenplay spot.
And to boot, it landed asurprise nomination at the
Producers Guild, and that isSeptember 5.
My money right now is thatSeptember 5 will be nominated
for best film and best originalscreenplay, and that's it.
And the producers guild will goonce again 10 for 10, as they
(47:32):
did last year.
Joseph (47:34):
I think that's a very compelling list.
I think when september 5 gotthat pga nomination over sing
sing and over nickel boys,telling it was very telling and
possibly the final nail in thecoffin for both of those films,
both excellent.
Nickel Boys, one of my favoritefilms of the year.
But September 5, I think, mightjust have come out with enough
(47:56):
time to make an impression onsome people and I think it's
very reasonable and very validto be putting that at the 10th
spot.
Again, we've mentioned a bunchof really good titles.
September 5th is reallytempting.
We know that last year for thefirst time the pga got all 10
nominees.
We also know that the pga is ona streak that every single
(48:17):
title listed should be nominatedfor a category yes you already
have september 5 in screenplay,as do I.
We both think it's dark horsesfor film editing.
I think I have it in my finalpre-dex, but it could end up
getting anywhere from two tothree and your same picture, and
that would be three.
I think that's an excellent,excellent choice.
But I'm going to go elsewhere.
I'm going to go ahead and allyear long I've been playing the
(48:40):
madman and saying that there isjust not enough alignment for
Emilia Perez to be the choicefor the foreign language film.
There's just.
If you look at all the foreignlanguage films this isn't like
my octopus teacher You're goingto get some.
A very austere choice, a very achoice that appeals to enough
(49:01):
people but sort of.
You know, while broadlyappealing, doesn't betray the
idea that it is a foreignlanguage film and very
challenging and not necessarilya populist film.
So because of that, I'm gonnasay that we're missing the
foreign language film winner inbest picture, and I'm going to
continue jumping on this ideathat Fernanda Torres doesn't
(49:24):
need very much to win an Oscar.
She doesn't need a SAGnomination, she doesn't need a
BAFTA nomination.
If she is nominated, it doesn'tmatter who's sweeping the
awards.
She can win that with just thatGolden Globe win.
I'm going to say that in foreignlanguage film, where we could
see Emilia Perez nominated, Idon't think it will be, but if,
if it is nominated, it's notgoing to walk against.
(49:45):
I'm Still here, and neither isthe Seed of the Sacred Fig and
Walter Salles, I think, ispoised to break into that Best
Director category.
I think Sony Picture Classicsis going to pull off Sony
Picture Classics Magic a laAmour and get I'm Still here
nominated for Best Picture, andthat is our foreign language
(50:06):
film winner.
Emilia Perez poised to winmultiple awards, that night song
, supporting actress, possiblyscore.
But the award that I think itwill not win is foreign language
film.
I think that award belongs to,possibly I'm Still here, which
may also steal the Best Actressaward.
So I think, by virtue of itbeing a big winner, I think it
(50:27):
needs to be in the biggestcategory.
Jules (50:30):
Well, that's a very interesting take.
I think that's a very boldprediction.
I certainly think it can bewithin the realm of possibility.
So who's your spoiler?
That's tough.
I think I'm going to go thesafe route and I'm going to say
that my spoiler is Sing Sing,which is the movie that I'd be
putting on here if there wasn'tan option to put September 5.
And I was predicting that itwouldn't get nominated for
(50:52):
anything.
But since I am predicting itfor screenplay, you know I'm
going to go safe.
I'm going to say my spoiler isSing Sing.
Joseph (50:59):
I think I'm going to agree with you.
I think the spoiler here isSing Sing and that it's able to
sort of complete its Hail Marypass and sort of get you know
picture couple of actingscreenplay.
I think that's its best day andmaybe it did enough work behind
the scenes to accomplish that.
You know, never sleep on Plan B, who had to have some kind of
Hail Mary plan for the wonderfulNickel Boys who I do not think
(51:22):
will make the short list here,but so- and I wonder if Variety
is onto something and it's rightand it's going to be the
farewell nomination to ClintEastwood.
I don't know, I mean that wouldbe absolutely insane if that is
just one nomination and I feellike Variety in true Variety
form.
You got to sell papers, right?
Speaker 2 (51:46):
They're always going to push the Oxbow incident
nomination where there's onemovie that gets nominated for
best picture, and that's it.
Joseph (51:50):
Of course, the Oxbow incident, a beautiful film, a
film that actually reallyinspired Clint Eastwood, a
worthy best picture nominee, inan extended lineup, and so it'd
be kind of, you know, poetic tosee Clint Eastwood nominated for
maybe his last film.
Let's hope not Maybe his lastfilm, in a sort of Oxbow
incident sort of fashion, butlet's face it every year,
variety is going to come up withan Oxbow incident nominee.
(52:11):
Just one nomination for picture, and that's it.
Jules (52:14):
Well, that's been our huge, thorough roundup of the
Best Picture nominees and, atlarge, all the nominees, all the
categories for the AcademyAwards and the upcoming
nominations coming up.
Joseph (52:28):
Don't forget.
Yeah, you can.
I'm sorry, just don't forget.
You can see our finalpredictions on our Twitter page
if you follow us at our Twitter.
Jules (52:35):
At Academy Anon and you know that was extensive and I
can't say we're 100% sure onevery category we've predicted
but we'll see what happens.
Joseph (52:46):
We're only hours away from it happening and we should
we should rename this showAcademy Cheat Sheet I think
Academy Cheat Sheet or AcademyAwards, academy Awards, because
we're hacking them.
But, so if you want to, if youthink you can, maybe best your
friends or your fellow Oscarwatchers.
We hope this has been helpful.
Jules (53:04):
We'll hope you tune in next time.
Joseph (53:06):
Yeah, as we hopefully cover the reaction to the
nominees, which hopefully is nottoo painful.
Let's hope so, let's hope.
Jules (53:16):
let's hope it's not too heartbreaking or too painful,
but in all likelihood everynomination, uh morning, ends up
being bittersweet Things you'rehappy about.
Joseph (53:25):
A mixed bag Things that every nomination morning ends up
being bittersweet things.
Jules (53:27):
You're happy about A mixed bag, things that suck, and
so you know we'll see whathappens.
We're hoping for the best.
Joseph (53:31):
Here's hoping some of your favorites get in.
Jules (53:35):
Here's hoping some of them do get in.
Thanks for tuning in.
I'm Jules and I'm Joseph, andit's been a pleasure.
The music on this episodeentitled Cool Cats was
graciously provided by KevinMacLeod and incompetechcom,
(53:56):
licensed under Creative Commonsby Attribution 3.0.
H-t-t-p colon forward slash.
Forward slashcreativecommonsorg.
Forward slash licenses.
Forward slash buy.
Forward slash 3.0.
Joseph (54:16):
Disclaimer the Academy Anonymous podcast is in no way
affiliated or endorsed by theAcademy of Motion Picture Arts
and Sciences.
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