Oscar Season 2024-2025; Oscar Nominations Postmortem

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Jules (00:13):
hey, welcome back to academy anonymous.
I'm jules and I'm joseph, andthis episode of a of our oscar
post-mortem is long overdue.
We apologize for being MIA.
Coincidentally enough, becauseof the crisis that's been going
on in Los Angeles with the fires, the Oscar nominations were

(00:36):
announced, oddly enough, thesame day that Sundance started,
right, and so we've had ourhands full with Sundance titles
and being in Utah and catching abunch of Sundance titles and
coming back and seeing some morevirtual screenings.
So this episode has sort ofbeen postponed and postponed and
we're finally getting back toit now and reviewing the Oscar

(00:58):
nominations, what we got right,what we got wrong, where we went
wrong and what stats havefallen by the wayside, and sort
of giving a very brief view asto where these categories stand
right now who we think leads thepack per category to possibly
or likely win their category.

Joseph (01:19):
Exactly.
So.
This is our belated Academy,autopsy.
So let's see what the bodyreveals.

Jules (01:26):
Right.
So let's jump right into thebiggest category, best picture,
and so our predictions.
It was pretty easy to predictthe top eight.
It was really the last two thatpeople had question marks and
not surprised.
No surprise there.
The last two were the surprisenominations in that group.

Joseph (01:45):
People got comfortable people got comfortable with
spots nine and ten, right right.
So who are the nominees?

Jules (01:50):
so we have Anora and the brutalist and a complete unknown
and conclave and dune part two,and emilia perez and the
substance and wicked.

Joseph (02:01):
Those were the eight that were easy to predict and
we'll call those the pga8because everyone who sort of got
lazy with their predictions,which is a bunch of people just
end up copying and pasting thepga10, right right exactly,
especially thinking that lastyear they had 10 titles and that
this year they were going tomaybe repeat that streak,

(02:22):
especially with certain titles,you know, running out of steam
at the end, like like a titlelike Sing Sing, for example.

Jules (02:27):
Exactly, and so we were certainly two people who thought
that that was going to happen.
The PGA was going to continuetheir streak and get the 10
films correct again.
So we thought that a real painwould get in, and we thought
that september 5, which was asurprise pga nominee, would get

(02:47):
in as well.
We thought that for a real pain, for me at least.
I thought that that film stooda very good chance because I saw
that it was a film that waslargely predicted to be the best
supporting actor winner, yeah,and it was, uh, very comfortably
going to get nominated for BestScreenplay.
So we had a conversation aboutit and we have to really look

(03:11):
back at a time.
I'm not sure how often ithappens that an actor wins an
acting category and that samefilm is nominated for Screenplay
and that film doesn't getnominated for Best picture
especially in expanded listsexactly, so we had mentioned
regina king in beale street, butthey had a shortened list that

(03:31):
year.

Joseph (03:32):
Same thing with alison jannie in I Tonya and if you
look at someone like christopherplummer, for beginners they
also had a shortened list.
So we were really surprisedthat at the end, with 10 spots a
real pain which people arepegging as the front runner for
supporting actor and a surefirebest original screenplay nominee
was not able to get in eventhough when I saw it, I told you
I felt like it was a small,possibly too small, too intimate

(03:56):
film.
The emma stone producer factorcould be working against it, as
well and I hated, I absolutelyhated and I told you over and
over again and it's in our bestpicture um final predictions
episode if you want to check itout.
But I told you I hated foxsearchlight or searchlight
getting two nominations here Idon't think that they had made a
case for being nominated twice.

Jules (04:18):
They didn't put in the work to do that right and I
think that you were right.
You were completely right.
Right, and if anything, the AReal Pain snub for Best Picture
just made that more possible inmy mind that Kieran Culkin is
not the favorite to win thatcategory even though everything
seems to point that he is.

(04:42):
When we talked about that filmin an earlier episode, I would
really watch out for EdwardNorton for Complete Unknown,
which did really well withnominations.
This is his fourth nominationhe has never won.
He's playing a real life figure, yeah, and that's sort of
catnip for the Academy, as we'vetalked about.
And so a real pain missing bestpicture really sort of started

(05:03):
painting the picture for me thatA real pain missing best
picture really sort of startedpainting the picture for me that
Kieran Culkin is not a lock forsupporting actor yeah, and
we'll talk about that when weget to that race Exactly.
Exactly, and so we failed with areal pain and we failed.
I will say that I took thecharge here in putting September
5 as that last nominee.
Again, I thought it would.

(05:24):
We thought it would replicatethe PGA and I could certainly
see that movie getting ascreenplay nomination.
We predicted it for ascreenplay nomination and,
looking for that last spot, youshould really look at director
acting and screenplay to fillout that last spot.
I thought the PGA last minutemention was a sign that people
were watching that it's a verygood movie.
If you watch it, I think you'regonna vote for it right.

(05:46):
And so I thought, okay, anumber 10 spot for september 5.
And that blew up in our facebecause it did not happen.
Most people's face, I would saywell, actually I would say I'll
go.
I would say no because I wouldsay most people were predicting
a real pain, as that number ninespot and sing, sing as the
number 10 also blew up in theirface.

Joseph (06:07):
I mean, I will say that we went with september 5th
thinking that the pganominations or snubs of sing
sing certainly and nickel boys,but certainly sing sing with
that sag pga snub was the finalnail in the coffin some people
sort of held on to that at theend and it didn't work out
either, right, I think the themiracle movie was nickel boys

(06:28):
right that got snubbed in bothexactly ends up getting
nominated, and so those two werein our final predictions.

Jules (06:34):
A real pain.
And uh, september 5, theydidn't get in, and instead
nickel boys got in plan b, planB, plan B always has a plan A to
get in.
And Sony Pictures Classics, whohad a great year.
They managed to get I'm Stillhere in which, at the very last
minute, you were very bullish onit getting a surprise

(06:55):
nomination for Best Picture.

Joseph (06:57):
I have all year long I have been banging the drum that
I think that there is an openspot in picture, or multiple
open spots in picture, and thatwe do not have the foreign
language film winner among there, that the populist sort of
energy that Emilia Perez wasconjuring to be nominated here

(07:19):
was not the energy of the Drivemy Car movie, and for a while I
had thought it was going to beSeed of the Sacred Fig and neon,
with a double nod here.
But then sony pictures had anamazing year they had great
titles.
They had this venice winner.
They had this golden globeactress winner.
At the very end I quoted it andit's in our best picture

(07:40):
breakdown episode before thenominations were announced.
I really thought that I'm stillhere would get in and here's
why I love it.
No studio, no distributor got intwice, right, sony pictures
gets in there and, and no onehas to repeat, you don't have to
have two a24 movies withbrutaalist or sing sing again.
There just wasn't enough workto justify those two nominations
and I think also that's thatmovie that I think we've been

(08:04):
missing, which is that sort ofdrive my car seed of the sacred
fig small.

Jules (08:09):
These nominations, really the only big award that they
could really look at that hadgiven out their awards was the

(08:31):
Golden Globe, and so I do reallyfeel that, more than I'm still
here being the quote-unquoteforeign language film spot in
the Best Picture top 10, becauseafter you saw the nominations,
that Emilia Perez had 13nominations, I think it was
clear that that was the foreignfilm spot for them.
I think things have changed andwe're going to get into it.

(08:53):
I think things have certainlychanged since then.
However, I think what had moreto do with I'm Still here,
getting in is that the Globeshad announced their winners and
that Fernanda Torres had wonthat award and that precipitated
or compelled voters to, or morevoters to, check out that movie

(09:15):
.
Had she not won that award andhad it gone to any other nominee
on that list, I do not thinkI'm Still here would have gotten
in.
I think I'm still here succeedsgreatly because of that
fernando torres win and alsobecause it's 20 picture classics
.
They know how to campaign andthey had a great year, and you
and I were always puzzled tothink well, listen, the outrun

(09:38):
um pedro's film room, um, uh,I'm still here.
It's not very conceivable thatthey're going to miss Lo and
behold, they didn't Right Um.
So they certainly know whatthey're doing.
They certainly know how tocampaign.
Never count them out.
But I do think an instrumentalpart in that movie getting into
the top 10 is that a lot ofvoters were going to put it on

(09:59):
after she won that golden globeone.
And as we've talked aboutgolden globe one and as we've
talked about as if you said,it's the kind of movie, it's
timely, um, you're going to uh,respond to it.
Right, you put it on, you'regoing to respond to it, and the
likelihood of you placing ithigh in your ballot is high.

Joseph (10:14):
I was very fortunate to watch this movie early and I
agree with you one of thereasons, a major reason why it
was nominated was because peopleput on the screener after that
golden globe win, which is whyit was nominated, was because
people put on the screener afterthat Golden Globe win, which is
why it was significant.
At the same time, having seenthe film, I understood that it
was the kind of film where onceyou put the screener in, that's

(10:35):
really all you need and that'swhy and we'll get into it as the
rest of the Oscar race developsbut in categories like foreign
film, in categories like actressand even in categories like
picture.
But in categories like foreignfilm, in categories like actress
and even in categories likepicture, once you put that movie
in, it's going to be verydifficult to rank that
performance, that film, thatscreenplay, whatever category
it's in, it's going to be sodifficult to rank it outside of

(10:56):
your top three.
Right?
The material in and of itself isjust so compelling, right?
So timely.
It's just so compelling, sotimely.
And then you add to that thatnot only is the material really
good, but it's handled andpresented in more than just a
satisfactory way, an adequate,appropriate way.

(11:16):
It's done tastefully, it's doneartistically, creatively, and
so it's sort of the kind of filmI've been sort of saying it all
year it just needs eyeballs.
Once it has eyeballs, the filmwill film.
I've been sort of saying it allyear it just needs eyeballs
once it has eyeballs.
The film will take care ofitself exactly, and that's what
happened.

Jules (11:30):
The golden globe win, sony picture classics they made
it happen.
That was a big surprise, one ofthe biggest surprises.
Certainly the best picture I'mstill here.
Nickel boys were the bigsurprises.
Very beautiful inclusions intothis list, um.

Joseph (11:44):
Surprising, shocking inclusions.
I would say that I wascertainly not pegging either of
those films to make it in here.

Jules (11:49):
I was sure that Nickel Boys wouldn't, because of the
kind of film it is, and it's areally beautiful film, but I can
already see a lot of audiencemembers, or rather a lot of
voters, not responding to it.
Its technique and its approachis specific and artful.
It's not for everyone.
It's a beautiful film, though.

(12:09):
It's wonderful that it's onthis list, but I feel like it's
going to alienate some people.
Absolutely, and so I was surethat it was not going to get an
I for Best Picture.
And the best it was going to dois a lone screenplay nomination
and lo and behold, you mentionedon the start of the episode
Plan B, plan B just Dee DeeGardner and Jeremy Kleiner.

Joseph (12:29):
They just really know what they're doing.
Amazon is an atrocious,atrocious studio to be a part of
.
They just really know how to,you know, ruin a movie's chances
, whether it's Challengers orFire Inside, whatever it is.
They just really don't knowwhat they're doing.
But plan b, they have thesecret sauce.
I mean, the movie is great.
So many great movies were notnominated this year, so that's

(12:51):
kind of irrelevant.
But plan b knows who they'reselling to, knows who they're
campaigning to, and they've hada lot of success.
And I would never have thoughtthat nickel boys would have made
it in over sing sing.
But it just goes to show youhow that lack of financial
success for Sing Sing was, youknow, a terrible idea from A24.
And I also think we need totalk about, you know, because

(13:12):
sort of a weird reversesituation happened and we need
to talk about the Scott Feinbergof it, all right, who is a
professional at this and sort ofyou know, banged the drum very
early for September 5th, puttingin number two in his
predictions.
Banged the drum very early forSeptember 5th, putting in number
two in his predictions, puttingit all over the place, and he
got that Hail Mary PGAnomination and I remember him
being someone who was a littlebit dare I say, alienated by

(13:35):
Nickel Boys and someone who wascertainly hesitant to put it in
very many categories and I don'tknow if he put it at the end I
don't think that he did but justthat sort of idea that he has
the same sort of eyes ormentality that an austria voter.
Just it doesn't pan out all thetime.
And I think you know scottfeinberg, you know, had to eat a
lot of crow for puttingseptember 5th at number two and
it not making it to any categoryexcept the sole screenplay

(13:57):
nomination, which was reallywhat nickel boys was supposed to
do right nickel boys wassupposed to be just adapted
screenplay because it was soempty, right.
But here it is.
It got into best picture,possibly because scott feinberg
does not take plan b seriously.
I think he did this same sortof thing with women talking,
which one adapted screenplay.
I'm not sure he listed it inpicture, but again, women

(14:17):
talking.

Jules (14:19):
Plan b, plan b I will say that I think the last time I
looked at his predictions, rightbefore the oscars I'm not sure
it was his final predictions,but I do think I remember
September 5th had fallen to likenumber 10.
Whatever.
However, I will give him thisbenefit of the doubt that,
having seen the movie, it reallywas the.
It really was a film that hadall the ingredients I think yeah

(14:41):
to get nominated for bestpicture and to do well at the at
the academy.
It had enough to get nominatedfor best picture and to do well
at the at the Academy.
It had enough to get nominatedfor acting awards yeah, it's
superbly acted.
Uh, certainly screenplay.
It got that editing sounddesign, so it had enough.
They just it was just fumbledand it just didn't happen.
Maybe it broke too late.

Joseph (14:59):
Paramount was too preoccupied with gladiator to
make anything out of September.

Jules (15:02):
five or better, man or better occupied with gladiator
to make anything out ofseptember 5, or better man, or
better exactly, and so that'swhat ended up happening there,
but to his, to his credit, it is.
I understand how he saw thatmovie and thought, yeah, this is
a major oscar player, yeah, umbecause it should have worked
out.

Joseph (15:17):
Yeah, it just didn't.
It just sometimes also worksthe other way, where you see a
movie and you say, you know, Ididn't like it too much or I
didn't understand it andtherefore it's not a major Oscar
player and that comes somesometimes that comes to buy you
in the book at the end, rightLike Nickel Boys, exactly,
exactly, and so that's whathappened with Best Picture.
I mean a couple of interestingthings that I see here is um, I

(15:39):
don't know if we're going tomention tallies yet or we're
going to wait to the end to talkabout tallies well, we can talk
about them now.

Jules (15:46):
I the tallies are, um, if I'm not mistaken, uh emilia
paris, with the most nominatedfilms of 13, one short away from
being the most nominations lalaland.
Ever got in lala land of lalaland um, and it probably might
have gotten that had there beena second sound category, who
knows?
Or had tolena gomez gotten inexactly?

(16:06):
And uh, then it was 10nominations for the brutalist
and 10 for wicked, whichoverperformed, and we had it
underperforming on our list.
Yeah, um, eight nominations forboth conclave and a complete
unknown.
No surprise there.
Well, actually a few surpriseswith those two movies, some
categories.
They missed that, I thoughtthey would get in.

(16:28):
And then I believe Enora has sixnominations, the Substance has
five, along with Dune Part 2,which did terrible and really
for lack of a better phrasereally effed our predictions.

Joseph (16:40):
How many nominations did it get at the end?
Five, five.
So it tied.
Didn't it tie the substance?

Jules (16:44):
Yes, it tied the substance and so you know that
really hurt our predictionsbecause we had it for a lot of
techs and it really wasshockingly snubbed from some big
techs.
Yeah, and we'll get into that.
And then you know I'm Stillhere had three nominations,
nickel Boys has two.
You have a few other films thathave multiple nominations.

(17:05):
So, for example, the Wild Robotgot three nominations,
nosferatu got four nominations,the Apprentice got two
nominations, sing Sing, whichdid not get Best Picture, still
got three nominations.
Wow, and that is verysurprising.
You would think with threenominations it's not hard to see
that film also getting a bestpicture nomination and making it

(17:28):
four.
That's happened before plenty oftimes yeah that just, I think,
goes further to your point ofhow much it factored for that
movie that it just didn't makeany noise when it came out,
maybe if a24 had skipped onbuying the buddha list and they
had concentrated all theireffort on a re-release or on a
critical campaign for the film.

Joseph (17:49):
It really needed to be in the position that onora was
in all year in terms of thecritical darling, the american
critical darling.
It just did not accomplish that.
It's unfortunate.
Um, I think it's interesting.
A lot of movies of multiplenominations.
None of them could breakthrough, whether it was robert
edgar's first time and a bonafide hit, or animation again,
whether it's flow or the wildrobot certainly not the

(18:11):
apprentice, but sing sing musthave gotten, maybe close even
though again, they still dodgedit for two nominations for
nickel boys and three for I'mstill here yeah I do think we
need to spend some time uh.

Jules (18:23):
Real Pain also got two nominations.
Flow got two nominations.

Joseph (18:26):
Two for A Real Pain.
Some people thought it wasgoing to be three of best
picture.
Shout out to Mubi.
Mubi making history here, Firstnomination here, great to see,
very happy to see that, veryexciting.
And then I think we also haveto mention I would mention Onora
and I would say I take off myhat to Neon they again captured

(18:47):
six nominations to matchParasite, eventual best picture
winner.

Jules (18:51):
If that's foreshadowing or not, I don't know, but six
nominations is nothing to sortof scoff at yeah, and we had
talked about I think that wewere both a little bit iffy
about that editing nomination.
However, I felt pretty goodabout it getting six.
I think you were on the fenceabout a few nominations, but it
ultimately got the six that itwas supposed to get Right and

(19:12):
then also Emilia Perez, 13,.

Joseph (19:14):
One Shy of La La Land, just to complete sort of the La
La Land cycle that's going onhere this year, Two producers
from La La Land were nominatedagain this year for different
movies.
You have a nominee fromlalaland nominated for producing
a complete unknown, and thenyou have a nominee from lalaland
nominated for producing wickedof course, none of them is the

(19:36):
leading film, emilia perez,which was one short of lalaland,
but it's still the mostnominated foreign language film
here, ever, I believe ever.
Ever, I think, surpassingCrouching Tiger, hidden Dragon
and Roma yes, two far superiorfilms.
But also how about the ideathat I think for the first time
ever and I think this isimportant, we didn't talk about

(19:57):
it For the first time ever, bestPicture is going to have two
foreign language films?
Yes, very interesting.
We didn't talk about maybe theother factor that really helped
I'm Still here get in which is$13 million, whatever their
currency is, that's huge.
It's going to open in theStates soon, so we'll see if it
can have success here.

(20:18):
But you know, it just goes toshow you, whoever you are,
whatever distributor you are,whatever sort of producer or
campaigner you are, whateverdistributor you are, whatever
sort of producer or campaigneryou are, whatever artist you are
tied to a film.
A campaign that reaches sort ofthe international audience is
now much more important and muchmore powerful than anything you
can do domestically 100%.

(20:39):
The only campaign that matters,I would argue, almost purely
domestically, is the Wicked TopGun Maverick campaign, which is
a billion dollars.
If you're not a billion dollars, then you should be spending
most of your energy campaigningto the international members of
the academy, not the domesticmembers of the academy.

Jules (20:56):
Right and we've talked about that often on this podcast
of the foreign influence onthis branch continues to grow
and grow and it's only going toget bigger.
The foreign influence on thisbranch continues to grow and
grow and it's only going to getbigger.
And before we go on, I want tomention two things.
Um number one, our report card,so to speak, was uh, there are
120 nominations that one couldhave possibly predicted at um,

(21:19):
across 23 different categories.
We got 97 correct and we got 23incorrect.
And on gold Derby, if you guysknow about gold Derby, we are in
the top 1.4% of accuratepredictions.
Uh, we, I believe we're number165 out of 11,000 that uh,

(21:39):
people that predicted um, ourgoal was to be in the top 25.
Uh, actually last year we didpretty well, uh, before we had
we had started this podcast, uh,we were in the top 50, uh,
which is nice.
Uh, we fell a little bit down,which is disappointing, um, but
last year actually, we got uh, acouple more wrong and we got a

(22:00):
couple more right this year, butI guess more people got some
more right.
So we ended up at 165 out of11,000, but still the top 1.4%.
So you know a little bit of apat on the back there, hopefully
.

Joseph (22:12):
It's also really difficult, though, because we
had talked about, in thatepisode again, our best picture
breakdown.
We had mentioned I'm still herewhich at that point was ranking
100 to one to get in for bestpicture, but you're just so
hesitant to not take the safebet on your final predictions.
That's why a lot of people aregoing to base their final
predictions on whoever the top 5or top 10 of gold derby are,

(22:36):
and they're going to be rightmost of the time.
I would argue that's not fun.
The fun part is to be ScottFeinberg and peg September 5 at
number 2 after you see it andthen have to eat crow on it or
watch I'm Still here and sort ofsay you know, I think that this
film if it has enough eyeballs,it will go the distance and
sort of be right that way.

Jules (22:56):
Right, I would prefer that Right.
I think our goal was to get nomore than 20 wrong.
I mean, it's pretty hard to get100% accurate.
Oh yeah, of course our goal wasto get no more than 20.
We got 23 wrong, so we wereover by three.
And, of course, postnominations, you kind of, you
know, beat yourself over thehead and think about better
choices you could have made andinklings or intuitions you could

(23:19):
have followed in order to get abetter score.
And that happens every year.
So that's a bit frustratingabout this whole thing.
However, again, we did get only23 wrong and we took some major
bets.
For example, we predicted thatJames Mangold would get an eye
for complete unknown, and he did.

Joseph (23:38):
We've been quoting that for a while, for a long time,
and I've been banging the drumon that.
When we talk about it, it's nowor never for James Mangold.
It's now or never for JamesMangold.

Jules (23:45):
It's now or never.
For a long time and othernominees sprinkled throughout
that we took some bold guesseson and we got them right.
So by that I'm trying to saythat just based on our results,
we got 23 wrong, and had we onlyfollowed Gold Derby and just
predicted the five on eachcategory, they still were 23.

Joseph (24:06):
The lazy way.

Jules (24:07):
You still would have gotten 23 wrong.

Joseph (24:09):
Yeah.

Jules (24:10):
So it was really about those last one or two or three
that maybe you know I go over myhead Could I have gotten it
right?
Just little tweaks here andthere.
Maybe instead of getting 23wrong, we could have gotten 21
wrong or 20 wrong and we wouldhave been in the top 25, which
was our goal.
So you know, that's afrustration that you, you know

(24:33):
that I certainly encounter.

Joseph (24:34):
That's pretty good I still think that's pretty good.
I think the bittersweet partfor me is when you sort of get
it wrong, like we had our lasttwo spots wrong on Best Picture.
We ran the numbers, we thoughta real pain was safer and that
September 5, the Hail Mary meantsomething.
But when you lose those twospots to something like Nickel

(24:58):
Boys and I'm Still here, youknow it's a little bit
bittersweet because, yes, youdid not get them all right, but
you did get two them all right,but you did get two of the more
deserving best picture mentionson there, so that that I think
that always makes me feel alittle bit better.
It makes me feel worse whenyou're predicting something it
didn't happen and then you gotsomeone who was inferior to that

(25:18):
person getting nominated.
I think that, to me, is morefrustrating so I would.
I'll go ahead and I'll take theeight best picture, Correct
Because I got I'm still here andnickel boys on there.

Jules (25:28):
Well, I hear what you're saying.
I feel differently.
I'm very competitive and youknow we work really hard on this
stuff and even on Oscar, rightbefore Oscar nominations, we
were had a late night doing ourpredictions, trying to get it a
hundred percent right, as closeto 100% as possible.
So I have that competitivedrive and I want to get it right
.

Joseph (25:47):
But wouldn't you feel worse if it was Gladiator 2
nominated there instead ofNickel Boys?

Jules (25:51):
I mean, possibly in retrospect I might.
But you know, right now I justfeel the disappointment or the
regret that I couldn't get atleast two more right so that I
could, you know, have met mygoal.
So we differ a little bit there.

Joseph (26:05):
You're a half empty guy, I'm a half full guy.
I'm still here.
And then the boys werenominated.
Come on.

Jules (26:09):
Yeah, yeah, no, and that's great.
I just, you know, I just wish I, looking back at the categories
, I wish I could have justgotten one or two right and had
followed my gut with certainnominees, like, for example, I
really thought Amelia Paris formakeup was going to happen and I
thought it was going to get onfor cinematography, and I wish I
had just like, just that wouldhave made a difference.

Joseph (26:29):
And we'll talk about it, yeah.

Jules (26:30):
But just that would have made a difference.
That would have given us twomore right, and that would have
put us higher at in God andpossibly closer or, if not, on
the top 25, which is what ourgoal was.
But why?

Joseph (26:40):
the hell would you nominate Amelia Perez for makeup
?

Jules (26:42):
Come on.

Joseph (26:43):
That's such a ridiculous nomination.

Jules (26:45):
We'll get into that.
But the point is I personallycan't help but look at what I
got wrong and how close I couldhave been to getting it more
right and landing closer to mygoal and my target.
But anyway, that's something Iwanted to mention and get out of
the way.
So we are still in the top 1.4%of gold Derby, number 165 out

(27:08):
of, I think, 11,300 people whopredicted.

Joseph (27:11):
Yeah, a lot of people predict.

Jules (27:12):
So not that bad.
Uh, 1.4% isn't terrible, um,and the other thing I want to
mention is not to lose sightthat the nominations this year
were a little bit thrown off,their usual sort of you know way
of doing things pattern, inthat we had been going through

(27:33):
the crisis in Los Angeles withthe fires that most likely had
an effect as to how many membersvoted.
We could have had a very lowtally of members at large vote
for the nominees, more than inrecent years, more than in usual
years.
I will say that you and I feelvery adamant, and we've talked

(27:55):
about it.
I think, briefly in pastepisodes, that the group of
voters who are voting for thenominees is very different from
the group of voters who arevoting for the nominees, is very
different from the group ofvoters who are voting for the
winners, in that the groupthat's voting for the nominees
is certainly smaller than thegroup that's voting for the
winners, because, in order tovote for the nominees, you have
to put upon the task of watchingall these screeners or these

(28:18):
films, and not everyone is a hasthe free time to do that or has
the time to do that, and notevery one of these members, I
think, wants to do that, so theywould much rather wait to see.
Okay, so what's the list?
Okay, from five, this is the onethat I think is the best.
I think a lot of, for example,actors, who are the biggest
branch in the academy, they votein that manner, that manner,

(28:45):
and so I, you know, wanted to beclear that you, and I really do
feel that you know, year byyear, the pool of people who are
voting for nominees is probablysmaller than people think, um,
and so I might not take them asmuch votes as people think to
get into that top five, uh, butI think that this particular
year, knowing that a lot of thevoter base, at least a big
portion, is in Los Angeles, I dofeel that an even smaller pool

(29:10):
of people voted.
And if that's not true, then Iat least expect that a lot less
LA-based voters voted and therewas more a pronounced effect of
having foreign voters have theirsay because they weren't going
through.
You know the LA fires, sopossibly, you know the whatever

(29:32):
foreign voters thought was thebest per category had a little
bit more weight this year thanin other years.

Joseph (29:38):
Yeah, that's my feeling as well, and you and I talk
about it.
There are two separate gamesnominations and winners.
When we're talking aboutpredicting nominees, we're
talking about chess.
That, I think, is the morechallenging task when we talk
about predicting winners.
We've moved on to checkers nowand it could be a little less
entertaining, but I agree withthat as well.

Jules (30:02):
That's a good analogy yeah.

Joseph (30:05):
They're just two completely different games and
you're going to get a bunch ofpeople who are waiting to play
checkers and try to check offthe winner and a lot of people
who are just a little too busyor disinterested in voting for
nominees.
As you said, the pool is notvery large.
I think it has to besignificant, but it doesn't have
to be seismic.

Jules (30:26):
Right.

Joseph (30:27):
Like it is going to be for anyone to sort of pick a
name out of five.
That's very easy to do and mostvoters will do that.

Jules (30:33):
And people think that People, I think, generally think
, oh, the Academy votes forthese nominees and you have
thousands, upon thousands, uponthousands of people placing
their vote.

Joseph (30:45):
But it's most likely not as much as not at all, not at
all, and I I wish they wouldrelease that data but there's no
way, there's no way they woulddo that.
Um, but I think the other thingI would mention about best
picture is you know, I don'tthink we've spent enough time
talking about dune, so I want tonot shout out.
What's the opposite of a shoutout?
I want to criticize, I guess.

Jules (31:01):
Yeah, I guess I'm gonna lay this at the opposite of a
shout out.
I want to Criticize.

Joseph (31:04):
Judge.
Yeah, I guess I'm going to laythis at the feet of Warner
Brothers.

Jules (31:06):
Yes, in a way I feel like in a way, I feel like
inadvertently, they got punished, you know, for the mistakes
they made this year with JokerFully Ado.

Joseph (31:15):
A bunch of mistakes really.

Jules (31:17):
Yes, and so in a way it feels to a film, um.
So in a way it kind of feelslike I don't think they went out
of their way to try to punishwarner brothers, but that's what
it comes across.

Joseph (31:29):
Yeah, I yeah when a film like dune manages only five
nominations, tied with thesubstance, a movie made for less
than a quarter of its budget.
Um, so I think it just goes toshow the sort of david's ass
laugh, you know.
You know, throw it at the walland see what sticks, sort of
method of releasing movies.
You know, here's a movie thatcame out february, march, spring
, looked like a surefire thing,got five nominations.

(31:51):
Major, major snubs in myopinion.
But you know, we're talkingabout a studio that mishandled
so many movies this year,whether it was juror number two
or whether it was furiosa, theybarely got to the finish line
with this movie.
And just goes to show you donot split your movie in two,
just don't make a three-hourpart one.

(32:12):
Get your part one and your parttwo and try to make a
three-hour movie out of that.
Or maybe, if you're smart,maybe if you can pull off a part
one and a part two in the sameyear.
But the part one, part twostrategy is not smart or
beneficial for anyone.
Warner brothers should belooking in the mirror and sort
of saying we could have won bestpicture and thus director in

(32:34):
2021 over koda and power the dog, whatever fight that was.
We could have won that award.
And here we are.
We're going to be sort of we'reinvited, but there's really no
reason for you to go, dune 2.
You really don't.
You don't have to show up.
Really, you know, maybe you'llwalk away with one award, maybe.

Jules (32:50):
Certainly certainly over, underperformed drastically and
had major major snobs.
Okay, moving on to the bestdirector category.
Um, this was a surprising listfor me personally because we had
predicted, uh, brady corbettfor the brutalist, jaco diard
for amelia paris, sean baker forhonora, edward berger for

(33:13):
conclave and james mangled forcomplete unknown.
And our spoiler was actuallydenis villeneuve in that veteran
spot for dune part two.
Obviously that that didn'thappen.
Dune was terrible, but I wasreally.
I really thought Edward Bergerwould get in for Conclave and I
really felt that Coralie Fargewould not get in for the

(33:35):
Substance Right, and so to seethat switch was very surprising
to me.
I think in Gold Derby she wasin the top five, so it wasn't
that surprising.
I think in Gold Derby she wasin the top five, so it wasn't
that surprising.
I think that they were moresurprised by the James Mangold
inclusion.
However, I'm the opposite.
I was surprised by the CoralieFarge inclusion.
I just felt that she was toonew, too new on their radar for

(33:59):
the director's branch and thatsomeone like Edward Berger, with
the success he'd had for Aquilaon the Western Front, was more
on their radar and probably wasa film that many members liked
very much and didn't get a BestDirector nomination.
This was the chance to writethat.
You and I had talked in previousepisodes about how it was a
little strange to have peoplelike Brady Corbett, in his third

(34:22):
film, nominated alongsidepossibly someone like Edward
Berger for his, I think, thirdfeature film.
He's had a lot of a storiedcareer in TV but I think in
terms of feature films he's hada few, a very limited number
like Brady Corbett.
So we had talked about howpossibly it's not does it make a

(34:43):
lot of sense to include themboth on the list and that that
could hurt Edward Berger.
We certainly thought thatEdward Berger was somewhat
vulnerable at some point.
But you can love you.
The same sort of critique toCoralie Farge, who the
substances are second, I believe.
Motion picture I believe Imight.
I don't think.
I'm wrong there, and so theystill did nominate two

(35:07):
relatively new filmmakers withrelatively short careers.
It just wasn't edward bergerand it was coralie farge.

Joseph (35:13):
I think we ended up going with the dga5, I believe
yes, and that always smelledwrong to me.
I will say I will pat us in theback saying we were one of the
first to get on the train of theJames Mangold.
Now or Never campaign.

Jules (35:28):
It happened.

Joseph (35:29):
Congratulations, james Mangold.
I don't know if it'll happenagain, but congratulations.
I mean we knew that again.
It's just the stars had alignedin a very sort of Taylor
Hackford sort of way in a sortof serendipitous way with Walk
the Line that it really feltlike the movie is just going to
be appealing enough to directorsand writers and producers to

(35:49):
not only get the best picture.
But for him to finally breakthrough the Coralie is a
surprise, but maybe it shouldn'thave been when we see it.
I mean, I don't like the DGAgetting all five right.
And I told you that there weretwo movies that are sort of
steaming each other's energy interms of conventionality and

(36:10):
sort of mainstream appeal, andto me that was conclave and a
complete unknown right.
And you have one who's beendoing it for a long time and
hasn't been nominated once.
And then you have edward berger.
Um, I think, looking at thislist, what stands out is most of
them are again writers,directors, and so what might

(36:31):
have been edward berger in thebutt here is not being the
writer on this film, um.

Jules (36:36):
But I also think it bit him in the butt that he just had
the more conventional titlegoing up against james mangled,
who had yet to be nominated yeah, I think something that you and
I have talked about in the pastis IndieWire at some point puts
out a list of what otherfilmmakers, other directors,
their favorite films of the year, and it's always an interesting
list to see how thesefilmmakers many of them who are

(36:59):
in the independent space howthey're reacting to the films
and the films that they'reresponding to space, how they're
reacting to the films and thefilms that they're responding to
.
And you and I have said thatthere's a name on there that
keeps appearing and appearingand appearing.
Watch out for that name.
And that happened to us lastyear, in 2023.
The name Justine Triet kept oncoming up and coming up and

(37:19):
coming up, and you know, when itcame down to predicting the
final five for best director in2023, I said, listen, greta
gerwig doesn't need a thirdnomination.
I think directors are going tothink that's too much for her.
You know, I'm sorry.
A second nomination fordirector.
I think director's going tothink it's too much, too soon.
And there's another femalefilmmaker here, justine truée,

(37:42):
for anatomy of a fall, which wasprobably a top five best
picture movie, and so here's aname that keeps being mentioned
by these filmmakers.
Let's take it seriously and wegot that prediction right but we
didn't follow through with thisyear.
We didn't follow through withthat.
The name Coralie Farge keptgetting mentioned and mentioned
and mentioned in that IndieWiresurvey of filmmakers' best films

(38:07):
of the year and the filmmakingthat they most responded to kept
coming up and kept coming upand that should have been a sign
that that director and thisfilm was sort of catering or
amassing a big following and abig passion base yeah, and it
got her following yeah, and abig passion base.

Joseph (38:24):
Yeah, and it got her in, yeah, and I think it's
interesting again that thedirector list, I would argue if
you agree with me has four ofthe possibly top five Best
Picture nominees.
Probably Coralie Fargeat forthe Substance overtaking, edward
Berger for Conclave Right, andthat's the DGA 5 and the oscar
five, but we had to tip our hatto movie you had an amazing year

(38:46):
.
But also they kind of played theblack swan playbook to a t,
getting its five nominations,netting best director, best
picture, and going to a placethat so few horror genre films
are able to go to yeah, sodefinitely tip your hat to that,
I mean yes, it's great to seeCoralie Fargeau there.

Jules (39:05):
I'm so happy for Mubi.
We love Mubi and we love seeingthem finally break it into this
list.
They acquire and curate some ofthe best films of the year and
they did it on their terms.

Joseph (39:18):
They're not like Netflix saying, well, what's going to
get me there?
They sort of said I'm going tobuy the substance and I'm gonna
get that there yeah, that was an.

Jules (39:26):
It was an amazing thing to see.
I personally have some issueswith the substance as a film
personally, but I'm so over themoon for movie absolutely and to
sort of just you know, final,final word on the category.

Joseph (39:41):
First time since 1997 we have a class of all first-time
nominees for best director.
Right, kind of exciting to seeso sort of, as we had sort of an
alluded to.
Is the academy going to copyand paste the dgi5 list?
No, they don't, but they gotthe sort of okay from the dga

(40:02):
list to sort of say, okay, fivenewbies is okay, and I'm okay
with that.
I look at that list of dganominees and I see that you have
someone like james mangle justpicking up their first
nomination, now jacques arriard,uh, sean baker, and so yes,
they're first time nominees butthey've been working for upwards
of 20 years so you sort of youknow, feel less pressure to put

(40:24):
a vet on there and so we did nothave a vet on there first time
since LA Confidential Titanic,the Sweet Hereafter, good Will
Hunting and, I believe, the FullMonty.
So congratulations to all thefirst time nominees here.

Jules (40:37):
Yes, absolutely.
And so our next category isBest Actress, and that was
surprisingly slash.
Not surprisingly, it ended upbeing the top five from gold
derby, uh, with cynthia rivomaking it in and fernanda torres
and the presumed sort of youknow locks of mikey madison,
carlos sofia gascon and demimoore.

(40:58):
Um, I will say that you and Ipredicted that cynthia rivo
would not get nominated forWicked and instead the veteran
in that spot would be MarianneJean-Baptiste, for Hard Truths,
who was the trifecta winner thisyear, the critic's darling, an
amazing, towering performance,an amazing film that got
completely blank by the Oscars.

(41:19):
Her snow was absolutelyheartbreaking and she did not
get in.
And the veteran that did get inwas Cynthia Erivo.
Um, and that was something thatwe had thought would not happen
because it was a little.
We thought it was too soon forher to get nominated right after
Harriet in the same category ofbest actress.
There's no category shift, it'sonly been five years.

(41:42):
Are they ready to do that?
Obviously they were, becausewicked supremely I mean wicked,
overperformed um, and she got inand it was the uh, gold derby
five yeah, and I will say acouple of things that we did
learn from this category.

Joseph (41:59):
We had four newbies which we were skeptical about
because of the whole trend thatthe officers have of nominating
two veterans.
I will say you did have atleast one veteran here, so that
holds true here, but you don'thave two veterans.
They made room for the extranewbie again.
Maybe the idea that demi mooreis just is a veteran actress
just without a nomination yet,possibly that may be a factor,

(42:22):
but you have four quote-unquotenew faces here.
Um, I think that we had beenvery skeptical about cynthia
rivo because she had just beennominated.
I think it's a five year cycle,which isn't impossible, but
without a category shift, soshe's been nominated now twice
in the same category.
It would be more easy.
It would be easier for me to bemore impassioned or happier for

(42:45):
her nomination had she possiblybeen snubbed for Harriet,
because it would have felt likean IOU as it is.
I think it's a little bit quickfor that nomination to happen,
and certainly when you look atthe other thing that we learned,
which is that a Mike Leeperformance, even when it comes
from a former nominee in 1996,Marijan Baptiste, with the
category shift is always goingto be difficult for it to be

(43:08):
nominated, I think in my opinion, you know, it's a sort of
staple example as to why thereshould be some sort of jury
intervention in any sort ofvoting process.
The BAFTA used to have it, but Ithink the Academy Awards should
have it now.
I know BAFTA gave it up, but Ithink the Academy Awards should
have it now.
I know BAFTA gave it up, butit's just that idea that if you
don't have sort of some factorsort of pushing a contender or a

(43:34):
movie or a style of movie or astyle of performance, if you
don't have some kind of factorto sort of even the playing
field that they're always goingto get snubbed, right and, yes,
sally hawkins, forhappy-go-lucky happened to her,
it happened to leslie manville.
They would end up beingnominated because the
performances were so amazingthat they are then going to be

(43:55):
cast in blue jasmine and they'regoing to be cast in phantom
thread.
And marion jean-baptistealready has a fantastic career
and she will continue to havegreat parts, but they'll hardly
ever get nominated for theseroles that do speak to a Paul
Thomas Anderson, for example,because the actor's branch in
and of itself.
They're not going to turn on aMike Lee film, and if they don't

(44:18):
turn it on, they're not goingto vote for it either.
And so it's just that idea thatwe learned that you know Mike
Lee point.
You know he can have an actordeliver one of the best
performances ever in a top 10performance in our lifetime and
it would probably still not benominated by virtue of it being
a mike lee movie.

Jules (44:37):
And a mike lee performance, which you know
doesn't pander to audiences,challenges, challenges his
audiences and is not necessarilyan easy sit and it's not
necessarily an easy thing tosort of like right and right
right and she was probably veryseverely affected by that, by
being a character that was noteasy to you know, like um, but

(45:00):
it's undis.
It's undeniably one of thegreatest performances of the
year.
That is absolutelyheartbreaking that she got
snubbed and I completely agreewith you on what you just said
about druid categories.
We've been feeling that wayabout the Academy for a very
long time, some kind of factoror?
Something.

Joseph (45:17):
If you had reduced this list to 10 people and had put
her on that 10, she may have hada better chance of getting in
there.

Jules (45:23):
100%.
I agree, 100%, and it's verysad not to see her on that 10.
She may have had a betterchance of getting in there 100,
but, um, I agree 100, and it'svery sad not to see her on this
list.
Um, and it's I.
I will say that you and I sawthe likelihood of there not
being two veterans coming by thefact that the sag had chosen
only to nominate one veteran wehad said, maybe that would have
been right, when they could havechosen from several who were

(45:45):
contending in very good films,and instead they nominated
someone like Pamela Anderson forthe Last Showgirl.
I think that was a clue thatthey were more than happy to
give for newbie spots and oneveteran.
I just really thought it wouldbe Mary Ange Batiste, and I'm
really sad that it's not.

Joseph (46:01):
I think the other factor we need to talk about is not
only does Fernando Torres keepthe real person sort of trend
alive, which was necessarybecause veterans like Kate
Winslet and Angelina Jolie werefalling behind.
But also we have a repetitionwhere we have two foreign
language performances nominatedin lead actors.
So we have talked about how thisis a very special category,

(46:22):
right.
Hasn't happened since the 70swith Liv Ullman for Face to Face
and the actress in CuisinCuisine.
So it has happened twice inthis category and now this is
the third time for it to happen.
And again, it's just that ideathat you and I have that
sometimes rules are differentfor different categories and so
rules for actors don'tnecessarily apply to actor At

(46:44):
least that's what we've seen.
So not surprising to see bothof those there, and even less
surprising when you considerthat we have both those films up
for Best Picture in a BestPicture 10.

Jules (46:55):
Right exactly, and so that was Best Actress.
Best Actor ended up being theGold Derby 5.
And were the five that wepredicted correctly?
Adrian Brody, ray Fiennes,timothee Timothy Chalamet,
coleman Domingo and SebastianStan?
Um, I think some people might'vebeen surprised by Sebastian
Stan getting an eye for theApprentice.
If you've seen that film, it'san incredible performance.

(47:15):
I'm so glad that he gotnominated.
I think he's more than worthyto be in the top best
performances by a male lead.
He was absolutely fantastic, inmy opinion, and as soon as
Jeremy Strong got nominated forthe SAG for the Apprentice, I
knew that it was game over,because if Jeremy Strong can get
an eye for the Apprentice, thenvoters are going to watch that

(47:38):
movie.
And if you're going to watchthat movie, you are going to be
impressed by the performances,especially Sebastian Stan's, who
was incredible in that movie.
You are going to be impressedby the performances, especially
Sebastian Stan's, who isincredible in that movie, and so
I really don't think there wereany surprises here for me.
Personally, I think it's.
I lament that someone likeDaniel Craig couldn't get in for
his strong work in queer.
Obviously, we thought from thevery beginning that that was a

(47:59):
difficult movie for voters tolike.
We had several walkouts and theseveral screenings that we
attended.
For voters to like.
We had several walkouts in theseveral screenings that we
attended, so it's not a surprisethat he missed out.
Also, the BAFTA snub might havebeen foretelling as well.
However, you know this will beto a larger issue that I have in
the acting categories.
I think it's somewhat unfairthat certain.

(48:20):
I think it's somewhat unfairthat actors certain actors have
to wait forever to getspotlighted by the Academy and
to get nominated.
Isabel Rossellini gettingnominated or her first
nomination in her mid-70s.

Joseph (48:32):
That's ridiculous.

Jules (48:33):
Absolutely ridiculous.
And Daniel Craig still can'tget nominated.
Maybe he'll get nominated inhis 70s also, exactly, and
certain other contenders can getnominated right away.

Joseph (48:44):
Yeah.

Jules (48:44):
And I find that very, I just find that really unfair.
It's disappointing.
I do feel like, don't get mewrong, it should be about the
work, but oftentimes it's notabout the work.

Joseph (48:54):
It's not about the work.
Come on.

Jules (48:55):
It's about being in the right movie and being promoted
by the right people, and that'show that kind of discrepancy can
happen, where someone is juststarting an acting career and
gets nominated or has very fewfilm credits or has much less
film credits than someone elsewho also delivered strong work.
But they miss out and they doget in.

Joseph (49:17):
Yeah, we can't snub marion jean-baptiste and then
say that it's purely about thework.
No, it you know.
There's a game here.
It's a.

Jules (49:24):
There's a popularity contest going on here, um right
and so you know, that's why Ireally feel like, especially in
the acting categories, theywould benefit from and again
going off what you were sayingearlier, they would benefit from
having some kind of more juriedselection, I think, in terms of
, you know, spotlighting people,that I think is only fair to

(49:45):
spotlight, especially if you'regoing to consider, like we're
going to get to supportingactors.
But it's weird to see acategory where Isabella
Rossellini gets her firstnomination at 70-something and
Ariana Grande is getting herfirst nomination for her first
movie, or Monica Barber.
Or Monica Barber with lesscredits, right, but it's just
weird.
You're seeing it there play outin that category.
Or Monica Barber, with, youknow, less credits, right, but

(50:06):
it's just weird, you know, it'sjust weird, you know, and you're
seeing it there play out inthat category.
That's strange, yeah, and thatdoesn't seem fair to me
personally.

Joseph (50:13):
No, I get it and I completely agree and it's a
shame.
I think that I had gone andtipped that the Apprentice was
going to get in after that BAFTAlong list mention for best
picture and again it just goesin my in my mind to reaffirm the
idea of I'm still here 13million Brazilian dollars, best
picture nominee the Apprentice.
13 million internationaldollars in its global run.

Jules (50:35):
You know that's not including the US and then you
get acting nominees, it justgoes to show you how important
it is to have that internationalsupport.

Joseph (50:42):
not surprised by his nomination there, and we had
talked about the other sort ofsilent factor here, which is the
A24 three nominee factor.

Jules (50:50):
That's just that proved to be right.
That proved to be right,exactly.

Joseph (50:53):
You know, there's just no reason to be nominating A24
Three times, three times forthree different movies in the
same acting category.

Jules (51:00):
Right.

Joseph (51:00):
Especially not when some of its contenders are running
Right.
The work was good enough.
Luca had been there before interms of being recognized by the

(51:23):
academy.
He had two great movies.
Um, I understand it was racy,but I thought that maybe, just
maybe, with that sag nominationhe could edge out coman domingo
right with a back-to-backnomination for for a performance
that he wasn't going to win for.
And we had thought for a longtime that if coman domingo got,
it was with his movie, and hismovie was doing so poorly after

(51:45):
the producer's guilt snub andthe SAG ensemble snub.
So I was starting to get aroundto the idea that maybe Daniel
Craig could sort of leapfrog himand he could be the final A24
spot.

Jules (51:55):
I do think that it would have happened that way had it
not been queer, and had it beena different movie.
Right way, had it not been queerand had it been a different
movie, right, maybe it was justtoo unlikable.
Yeah, um, you know, I certainlylike that movie very much, but
it's certainly not going to be,uh, the academy's cup of tea,
and so I think it would havehappened as you're saying colman
domingo would have been the onethat would have been out right

(52:16):
had the film been more, you know, more played, played, more to
the Academy.

Joseph (52:22):
Yeah, but the Academy is not going to like William S
Burroughs movies.
That trend continues Again,even if it sweeps Best Picture
maybe, if it was, it would beperfect if it was a movie that
swept Best Picture based onWilliam S Burroughs, directed by
Mike Lee, because then you knowit's not going to get nominated
for any Oscars, right?
And then the other thing, thatsort of again.

(52:43):
I would be happier about theColeman Domingo nomination,
except that he was just therelast year by himself and he
didn't have to be there.
You know he took out, you know agreat Leo performance for Kills
of the Flower Moon, but maybeLeo didn't have to be there for
once upon time in hollywood.

Jules (53:00):
I guess you could argue that, oh no, yeah, but um, the
other thing about coleman isthat I mean he has the michael
jackson movie coming out laterthis year.

Joseph (53:08):
I think he's playing his father.
So I I I wonder how we're notgoing to nominate him for that.
And so we're going to nominatehim three times in a row.
Maybe that the argument here isto finally give him the win
this year, but it just seems tome like too many nominations all
at once.
And again.
Isabella rossellini is justbeing nominated now, at 70 yeah
right um, because people didn'tget blue velvet in 1986, right

(53:31):
um.
So that was a little, a littlebit weird for me to see, but I
guess at the end we're not toosurprised that daniel craig
didn't get in there.

Jules (53:38):
It's just it's and again, just the map of it all.
You know how certain people getin and certain people don't,
and sort of.
You know the unfairness thatcan sort of play out before us.
You know, it's just somethingthat always rubs me the wrong
way Right.

Joseph (53:54):
At least Sebastian Stan did get nominated, though we
were right about that.

Jules (53:59):
I'm very happy about that .
He did not cancel himself out.
Yes, I'm very happy about thatand I think again, a very, very,
very deserved nomination in myopinion.
And so, branching off of thatsupporting actress, um, we
predicted zoe zaldana, isabellarossellini felicity, jones.
That, to us, in our opinion,was absolutely the locks.
Some people some people weresome people were crazy and
thinking that felicity jones wasnot going to rocker.

(54:20):
I have no idea what they werethinking.
That is a great performance byFelicity Jones.
She's completing a 10 yearcycle We've talked about in
previous episodes.
She's in a best picture for arunner the materials there so
that's a no brainer.

Joseph (54:32):
Some people were drinking the Kool-Aid.

Jules (54:35):
The category needs a veteran and people were doing a
last minute switch to Jamie LeeCurtis, come on.
That was not going to happen.
It's too soon.
After everything, everyonewants a category that she won.

Joseph (54:46):
Yeah.

Jules (54:47):
Um, and I just don't think that she has enough in
that movie to get nominatedperiod no, Um, and so I I
thought people were justridiculous and thinking of
Felicity Jones.
Snub.

Joseph (54:58):
Then Ann Thompson.
Ann Thompson put Jamie LeeCurtis in at the end.

Jules (55:01):
I think she did, I don't know.
I think she still had FelicityJones, though I'm not sure, but
anyway, so we had those three.
The whole afterglow momentumCome on.
Variety wrote articles about it, clayton Davis.

Joseph (55:11):
Look, it was just too much.

Jules (55:13):
Way too much we had argued again.

Joseph (55:15):
we were fortunate enough to watch a little bit early.
We had argued that FelicityJones can be snubbed from every
award if you want, but if youfinish watching that movie and
you like that movie she's goingto be nominated.
Yes, you know maybe if FelicityJones' role in my opinion again
was done by Monica Barbaro,again as her second or third

(55:36):
film or her second or thirdmajor film.

Jules (55:39):
Possibly.
Maybe she would have beensnubbed, but Felicity Jones is a
previous nominee.
Yeah.

Joseph (55:42):
Right, she's a beloved by the British Academy.
She got nominated at theBritish Academy.
If you watch the film, you'regoing to nominate her, yeah
absolutely, and it's also acategory shift.
Yeah, category shift.

Jules (55:53):
And so those were, in our opinion, the three locks, and
it was, um, daniel deadwellerwho got the sag nomination.
Yes, she missed the goldenglobe and and, yes, she missed
the bafta, but she had alreadygotten the bafta nomination, uh,
for till, so possibly some ofthat could have played out there

(56:15):
too soon to nominate her again.
She was so, yeah, uh, exactly,um, and we also had, uh, ariana
grande, obviously for wicked,and we had monica barbro, who
got a last minute, late surgewith that sag nomination which
we had called.

Joseph (56:30):
We always talked about freaking, started screening that
well, we'll get back to that.

Jules (56:34):
And then we had, uh, a passionate sort of base for
margaret quality, the substance.
We really felt that those lasttwo spots were between those
four women and we ended upsaying that the Daniel
Deadweiler snub for Till wasgoing to have a factor here and
that she was going to get an eyefor the piano lesson, and we
were going to go with our gutthat this category is missing a

(56:57):
real life figure.

Joseph (56:58):
Which we called for a while now.

Jules (57:00):
On top of that, it's a real life figure, which we
called for a while now.
On top of that, it's a reallife figure in a movie that is
being watched at the right timea complete unknown um the bob
dylan film and the sagnomination sort of cemented our
and then when she got that saganomination, I thought it's over,
she's going to get nominatedyeah again.
This category needs a realperson, uh, or should at least
have a real person.

(57:20):
She's in a perfect movie to doit.
She's playing Joan Baez.
The nomination is as much forher as it's nominating the
iconic figure of Joan.

Joseph (57:29):
Baez, oh, certainly.

Jules (57:30):
Which they love to do that when they can, and so, for
me, monica Barber was ano-brainer as well.
And then we hedged our bets onDaniela Deadweiler.
Obviously, we were wrong andWicked overperformed, and Ariana
Grande landed her firstnomination for what's arguably
her first film.

Joseph (57:47):
I mean, I think it is her first film.
I'm not counting that, Don'tLook Up as her first film.

Jules (57:51):
I mean if you don't count that, then it's absolutely her
first film.
I really didn't think that wasgoing to happen, and we talked
about the unlikelihood, uh, orhow unlikely it was to have two
musical performances from twodifferent musicals, not in the
same category.
It's been a while it happened.

Joseph (58:09):
The stat happened, yeah, the stat happened yeah um it
has I think the last time was inthe 80s, 1983 I believe again
charles durning and robertpreston right, neither for best
picture movies, both on theirfirst nomination, but both two
veteran actors, char CharlesDurning and Robert Preston,
exactly.

Jules (58:24):
And so that ended up happening again.
It's been a while.
Interestingly enough, someonelike Selena Gomez, who was in
the preferred film for AmeliaPerez, landing 13 nominations,
still could not get nominated,and they chose Ariana Grande
instead.

Joseph (58:41):
Which is weird, which is just weird it is pretty weird,
considering again that SelenaGomez has the show?
Has worked with Jarmusch, hasworked with Corinne.
Yeah, I guess it just shows.

Jules (58:50):
I guess it just goes to show you that you know that
performance.
Just wasn't speaking to voters,right?

Joseph (58:57):
And then I think it also goes to show you in terms of
stats that survived.
You know, no SAG double nomineein the same movie, no Oscar
double nominee in the same movie.

Jules (59:05):
Yes, you know, I mean, I think, jesse.

Joseph (59:07):
Clemens broke that trend for Power of the Dog.
But the safest thing to say isyou know, selena Gomez's chances
were obviously DOA when she gotsnubbed at that SAG.

Jules (59:16):
Right, exactly, exactly.
And so it's also surprisingbecause the movie did well, the
substance that Margaret Qualleycouldn't land the nomination,
considering that she has, Ithink, in our opinion, a more
advanced career than MonicaBarber for Complete Unknown,
certainly Ariana Grande forWicked.

(59:37):
And that movie did well and itgot an eye for Best Picture and
it got an eye for best directorand still couldn't get market
quality for best supportingactress.
You know, I find thatinteresting.
I thought that I I didn't thinkshe would get nominated because
I thought the sag miss wasindicative but substantial,
exactly.
But I didn't think that itwould get an eye for best
director either.

Joseph (59:57):
right, and it did so we had talked about the nepo so we
had talked about the NEPO factor.
We had talked about the SAGsaying there's only room for one
NEPO baby and that's.
Jamie Lee Curtis, exactly, andBAFTA said there's room for two,
even though it wasn't MargaretQualley.
There's room for two.
We can put Rossellini andCurtis in there, but there's six
spots.
And so here we go down to fivespots.

(01:00:18):
There was really only room forone N Nepo baby Right.

Jules (01:00:22):
And I think that's something to really look at as
something that happened here inthis category with Isabel
Rossellini and Margaret Qualley.
I think they wanted to includeone Nepo baby and Isabel
Rossellini it's a fucking crimethat she hasn't been nominated
yet, and so obviously she wasgoing to win that battle.
But it's still interestingbecause the Substance did do
well, just not for MargaretQualley, and Margaret Qualley is

(01:00:45):
obviously going to getnominated sooner rather than
later.
However, still you know.

Joseph (01:00:50):
Surprising not to see her here.
She's an Emmy nominee already.
Multiple Emmy nominations.

Jules (01:00:54):
Exactly.

Joseph (01:00:54):
She's been to Cannes.
She's been to Cannes a coupleof times now.

Jules (01:00:58):
Exactly, and her career is more advanced than Monica
Barbera or Ariana Grande.

Joseph (01:01:03):
Right, and they landed nominations before her, and she
had a lot of films this year too.

Jules (01:01:07):
Exactly, and I think it's also disappointing to not see.
I just don't think enoughpeople appreciated Elle
Fanning's work in A CompleteUnknown.
I think she's wonderful in thatmovie.
I would have loved to have seensome more love for her.
Monica Barbaro ended up gettinga nomination before her and I
think Al Fanning has had alonger career, so it's also

(01:01:28):
disappointing to see.
Again back to what I was sayingcertain people get nominated
before others.
That being said, as we said,monica Barbaro, who's also
really great in her film she'sreally lovely in her film really
benefited from playing JoanBaez.

Joseph (01:01:41):
Whereas.
Al Fanning had a version of areal, More iconic yeah.

Jules (01:01:45):
Exactly, but she was playing still a version of a
real-life character, but notexactly the real-life character,
so that's something that reallywent to Monica Barbaro's
Advantage Advantage.
I would have loved for both ofthem to have been nominated.

Joseph (01:01:57):
Yeah, but again, the no sag double, double nominee is is
sort of a killer for that sortof campaign.
I'll also say that you knowanother stat that sort of fell
this year in terms of it being abad predictor of how things are
going to go, was that l fanningwin at the national board of
review right, which we thoughtyou know was interesting when we
saw it.
You know that they chose lfanning over other contenders or

(01:02:19):
the more prominent contenders.
But now that you sort of seethat Monica Barbera got
nominated, it's sort of weirdthat they didn't give that win
to Monica Barbera instead of AlFanning.
Again, we love them both.
They were both fantastic intheir films.
And then you know the DanielDeadweiler thing I think is
super significant.
I mean, daniel Deadweiler nowjoins and again she was running

(01:02:40):
by herself, again as a solonominee that hurt a lot.
Which, again, if you're outthere and you're sort of
launching any sort of campaign,whoever the hell you are a
studio distributor, a producer,whatever do not campaign your
prospective nominee bythemselves, because you are not
going to be nominated.

Jules (01:02:57):
You get nominated?
Well, you can be nominated, butit's an uphill battle.

Joseph (01:03:01):
I mean I hope you touch on this later because we this is
a very important factor thatsort of I I'm not sure I think
they're going to become rarerspecies of people who get in by
themselves and hope you touch onthis after we're done talking
about the all the actingcategories.
But she was running by herselfagain, which was a huge
detriment.
Obviously, I think what may bethe deciding factor there, and
netflix obviously not have theenergy, the ability to get

(01:03:25):
multiple people into thiscategory.
They just got their one, ameliaParis girl, not even two Amelia
Paris girls.
But Daniel Deadweather nowjoins a select group of
individuals who will have twoScreen Actors Guild nominations
for acting and not one singleOscar nomination.
So, she's certainly on that sortof trajectory where they're
going to nominate her so fardown the line from when she

(01:03:48):
should have been nominated thatit's going to be a shame.

Jules (01:03:51):
Yeah, I 100% agree.
I think it's sad not to see heron this list and, again, it's
weird that other people are onthis list for some of their
first work.

Joseph (01:04:01):
And I mean, and Coleman Domingo gets to be nominated
back to back and DanielDeadweather still hasn't been
able to muster one nomination ineither category.

Jules (01:04:08):
Right, and so, yeah, Well , we got four right in that
category because we didcorrectly predict Monica Barbaro
.
But we really missed the boaton Wicked and Ariana Grande and
Cynthia Erivo and Wicked as awhole.

Joseph (01:04:20):
But actually that's really important to mention is
that we had for a long timepegged Ariana Grande to be very
vulnerable here because of thestat that you do not get
nominated for acting for amusical.

Jules (01:04:32):
Well, the stat is that the stat that we looked at was
actually that if you're amusician who's transitioning
into film, you don't getnominated for your category by
yourself above the line.
So you should be gettingnominated alongside a director
nomination or a screenplaynomination or a fellow actor

(01:04:54):
being nominated, and by the end,I think a lot of people were
predicting that Cynthia Erivowasn't going to get nominated
and that Ariana Grande would getnominated by herself in the
above the line categories.

Joseph (01:05:05):
Which is what we thought .

Jules (01:05:06):
We thought it was probably Mary Ann Jean-Baptiste,
exactly, and so that alwayssmelled to us as very unlikely
because, again, most musiciansget in for their respective
categories and the actingcategories alongside another.
Above the line nomination thatdoesn't include best picture,
right, and that did happenbecause ariana grande did manage
to get nominated but cynthiarevo got nominated as well right

(01:05:28):
, but she did not get nominatedby herself exactly.
I think it's important to note.

Joseph (01:05:32):
So, if you're a, musician and you want to get in.
You definitely want to get in,either with your co star or your
director or your writer,exactly, um, and some people
were maybe pegging wicked for awriting nomination at some point
too.
So I think that cynthia revo'snominations or your director or
your writer, exactly and somepeople were maybe pegging Wicked
for a writing nomination atsome point too so I think that
Cynthia Erivo's nominationsreally unlocked the nomination
for Ariana Grande 100%, I think.

Jules (01:05:50):
if Cynthia Erivo doesn't get in, I don't think that
Ariana Grande would have gottenin by herself.

Joseph (01:05:56):
History hasn't shown that Exactly.

Jules (01:05:57):
And so Cynthia getting in greatly.
I liked the word you used,unlocked.
I think that became extremelyplausible as soon as she got
that nomination.
Supporting actor went five forfive with the SAG.
We predicted the five of theSAG.
I think this yes.
Guy Pearce missed the SAG forJonathan Bailey for Wicked, but

(01:06:25):
Guy Pearce?
The glaring snub of Guy Pearcewas not going to happen at the
Oscars.
Guy Pearce, one of our greatestactors, one of my favorite
actors Again a crime that thisis his first nomination.

Joseph (01:06:38):
An Absolute Crime After All the Confidential and Memento
.

Jules (01:06:41):
Like I said, just the map of the whole thing.
Certain people are enjoyingtheir first nomination after a
storied career, and then otheractors are getting in with
lesser career.
I mean you know less filmcredits and so that that just
doesn't sit right with me.
But I'm very happy for GuyPearce.
I'm very happy he got nominatedFinally again, long time coming
.
He's wonderful on the Buddhalist and again, it's just

(01:07:05):
mind-boggling that he's neverbeen nominated before.
But anyway, I think the fivethat we predicted are the five
that were on Gold Derby EdwardNorton, kieran Culkin, guy
Pearce, yura Borisov and JeremyStrong.
I thought this was one of theeasier categories to predict.
All of these candidates madeperfect sense.
As soon as Clarence Macklinmissed the SAG, which I was not

(01:07:26):
expecting, and someone like YuraBorisov managed to get the SAG
nomination and the BAFTAnomination, I thought, well,
that's it.
Those are the five.
I thought the list was kind ofweird to have Yura Borisov and
Clarence Macklin, two relativelyunknown actors to the actors
branch, both getting nominatedat the same time.

(01:07:50):
But Yura Borisov has ascene-stealing part in Onora and
that greatly helped him and heactually did terrific, because
you got an eye for everythingthat he needed to get an eye for
Absolutely, and that SAGnomination really helped Jeremy
strong and we had at one pointbeen trepidatious about Kieran
Culkin and Jeremy strong beingnominated in succession because
of the succession connection.

(01:08:11):
So it's kind of weird to seethem in the same category so
soon after succession.
But it happened again as soonas Jeremy strong got that SAG
nomination I thought it was, youknow, absolutely sealed.
He would get in alongsideSebastian Stan Again.
He's great in the Apprentice,so it makes absolute sense.
If you've seen the movie, Iwill say that and we can go into

(01:08:34):
this later when we revieweverything we've talked about.
I will say that the JeremyStrong alongside the Kieran
Culkin nomination I think hurtsKieran Culkin.
I agree and I think right, andso I think that just adds
further fuel to this idea that Ithink Kieran Culkin is not
going to win for a real pain andthat it will be somebody else.

Joseph (01:08:55):
It could be his Fox Searchlight brother Edward.

Jules (01:08:58):
Norton.

Joseph (01:08:59):
You had mentioned that, but I'll go ahead and say you
gotta watch out for Guy Pearceyou gotta watch out for Guy
Pearce because he has enough inthat movie to win again LA
Confidential Memento.
He's been doing it for quite awhile.
Congratulations to Yura.

Jules (01:09:13):
I doubted him all year, every time you brought him up.

Joseph (01:09:15):
I said no, golden Globe nomination, no, sag nomination
no yes after nomination I don'tthink so.
I doubted him all year, right,I love that he's included here.
I think that's great, but ityou know what it?
It kindles a little thought inmy mind.
You know why does yura get tobe nominated before dahlia
delion?
I thought the dahlia delionfactor would would kill europe.

Jules (01:09:37):
Obviously the sag nomination went up, went a big
way to sort of solidifying himthere's.
That's a big difference.

Joseph (01:09:43):
But you know it's interesting to think about.
You know these sort of arthousemovies or you know
international actors or maybethese arthouse movies that have
an international bend as wellbecause they did premiere at
Cannes.
You know they don't typicallyget many of their actors in.
Mikey was able to get in.
I didn't think that Yura wasgoing to be able to get in there
too.
Again, neon getting sixnominations for the first time

(01:10:04):
since Parasite how manynominations did they walk out in
acting for Parasite Zero?
And the supporting actor, sungKang-ho, has been doing it
forever.
He still couldn't get nominated.
So I'm surprised by Yura.
I'm happy for him.
I doubted him all year.
It sort of gets me thinkingwhat does the next Dolly DeLeon
have to do to get nominated?

(01:10:24):
And it certainly helps and Ihope we talk about this after
this category having yourpartner there, right, yes, so
you know Mikey being therereally helps, you know.

Jules (01:10:33):
Yura show up 100%.
I'm very happy to see him here.
We fell in love with yuraborosov in compartment number
six of the beautiful film.
He's a very gifted actor and soit's just nice to see him sort
of have this uh, breakthroughmoment um.
And that concludes our sort ofrecap of the acting categories.

Joseph (01:10:54):
Right, um, but before we finish it, I will say that some
larger trends here in acting.

Jules (01:10:59):
I will say.
Something that really stood outto us was that this is the
first year since 2013, I believethat there isn't one nominee
included in these actingcategories.
20 spots, right in 20 spots.
That is the film's onlynomination.
So every year, routinely,you'll see an actor or two or

(01:11:21):
three or tops four will getnominated and be the film's only
acting nomination andoftentimes the film's only
nomination period.
The Ellen.

Joseph (01:11:32):
Burstyn Wrecking for a Dream nomination.
Who got it last year?
Last?

Jules (01:11:35):
year was Daniel Brooks for the Color Purple, the Daniel
Brooks Color Purple, andColeman Domingo for Rustin.
Coleman Domingo for Rustin,exactly, but sort of you'll tend
to see usually at least one,sometimes as many as what as
four.
So in 2021, no, I'm sorry, 2022, we had four we had Brian Tyree
Henry, we had Andrea Risborough, we had Anna D'Armas and we had

(01:11:57):
Paul Meskel.

Joseph (01:11:58):
After Sun.

Jules (01:11:59):
That was four.
They usually don't do more thanfour.
They might have you know muchearlier in their history.
They usually do tops four, atleast one.
The last time that there wereabsolutely zero nominees
included in the actingcategories that were the film's
only nomination there were zerowas 2013.
There were no actors in anycategory that were the film's

(01:12:25):
only nomination.
That was the year of AmericanHustle and Gravity and Toys to
Slay and Blue Jasmine, nebraska.
Nebraska, the Wolf of WallStreet, captain Phillips.

Joseph (01:12:37):
Yeah.

Jules (01:12:39):
So you know.

Joseph (01:12:40):
It's interesting to see as sort of you know, is that a
trend that we're going to seenext year?

Jules (01:12:44):
Could be interesting to think about that if that ended
up helping there not be asurprise low nomination for
someone like Daniel Dudweiler ora surprise low nomination for

(01:13:06):
someone like Daniel Craig,because you know it was easier
to sort of have a groupmentality, a group think as to.
You know, these are the topfilms and we're going to get the
acting nominations from thesetop films.
I don't know if that could haveplayed a part.
Possibly it might have played apart.
It's possible.

Joseph (01:13:22):
I think we have to keep our eyes open for this year
coming up.
I think I would also like totouch upon the idea that, again
among the acting categories, howmany of these performances are
getting in without a partner?
Right, so if you look at thesupporting half of this list,
those 10 spots, I believe it'sonly Kieran Culkin, right, the
Golden Globe winner for RealPain, that's getting in, without
his screen partner JesseEisenberg, right.

(01:13:44):
And if you look at the upperhalf of this list, in the
leading category, I believe youhave Komen.

Jules (01:13:49):
Domingo for Sixing.

Joseph (01:13:51):
Fernando Torres I'm Still here, and Demi Moore for
the Substance, and that's itthose three.
So again, if you're campaigningfor any of these spots, you
have to try to get your partnerin as well as yourself.
It pays dividends, to campaignmultiple people for the same
movie, right?
And I think the last thing I'dlike to touch upon, just because
it's really interesting tothink about, is we had developed

(01:14:13):
this sort of theory and ideathat, nomination-wise for acting
, the Academy will mimic theScreen Actors Guild Award in
terms of new nominees thatthey'll let in, new actors that
they'll let in, right.
How did that turn out, this so?

Jules (01:14:31):
you know, usually the academy will you know.
You know, the sags are probablythe best precursor to look at
when you're thinking about theacting nominations for the
Academy.
They replicate many of them andso, in terms of the veterans
that the SAG nominates, you know, if the SAG nominates, like

(01:14:51):
they did this year, sevenveterans, you can expect the
Oscars to either match thatnumber or, more often than not,
have one or two less than that.
You shouldn't see, for example,the SAG having included eight
veterans in their 20 spots andthen have the officers include
10.
That doesn't happen.

(01:15:13):
They like to include new peopleand oftentimes they'll do one
or two less than whatever thenumber of veterans that the SAG
committee nominated.
So include even more new people.
You know exactly.
So this year the SAG had sevenveterans, and, if I'm not
mistaken, there were sevenveterans that got nominated this

(01:15:34):
year as well.

Joseph (01:15:35):
At the Academy.
Yes, okay.
So then they sort of more orless matched.
They sort of equaled it Exactly.
Okay, then they sort of more orless matched.
They sort of equaled it Exactly.

Jules (01:15:41):
Okay, and even a year like 2022, when Best Actor
didn't have a veteran and PaulMeskel got in the SAG category
for Best Actor didn't have aveteran either.
Yeah, and that was a clue thatwhoever got that last spot for
Best Actor was not going to be aveteran.

Joseph (01:15:59):
And that's sort of what you use for Actress this year,
right?
When you saw that, pamelaAnderson was able to be
nominated.
Over Andrea Jolie and KateWinslet and Saoirse Ronan Right,
it sort of let you know thatthe door is open for Fernanda
Torres to be another newbie thisyear, but also still, you know.

Jules (01:16:14):
you know, even if the Paul Meskel thing does happen,
it's not often.

Joseph (01:16:17):
Yeah.

Jules (01:16:24):
And they like to include veterans when they can, at least
one.
That's why you needed a veteranand supporting actress at least
one.
You got one in phyllis jones.
You needed one supporting actorat least one.
You got one in edward norton.
And you needed one an actressat least one.
You got one in cynthia revo.
And then, best actor, you gotfour.

Joseph (01:16:38):
Yeah, uh including one back to back without a best
Picture nomination, exactly Foreither.

Jules (01:16:44):
And so you know you should at least count that.
You know every category isgoing to at least have one
veteran, if they can.
A very extreme circumstancelike 2022, it can happen not
often.

Joseph (01:16:54):
Yeah, you sort of have to push them into that corner
where like, the only veteran Ican nominate is Tom Hanks for A
man Called Otto or Tom Cruisefor Top Gun Maverick, and so I'm
left with nothing but badchoices or choices that I'm not
thrilled with, right.
So I'll go out of my way andlook for that Exactly First time
nominee.

Jules (01:17:10):
Exactly, and so those were the acting nominees for the
screenplay category.
Those were actually twocategories we did well in.
We got five out of five rightin adapted screenplay, which I
believe were the gold derby five, conclave, emilia paris sing,
sing a complete unknown, andnickel boys um, and then an
original screenplay.

(01:17:30):
The four that were easy topredict were a nora a real pain
the buddha list and thesubstance.
That last spot had a few peopleconfused, but you and I felt
pretty good about september 5landing in somewhere, and at
that point- you thought it was adouble.

Joseph (01:17:44):
You thought it would be screenplay and picture.

Jules (01:17:46):
Yes, I did, but we did say how a film that gets a PGA
nomination for best picture-.

Joseph (01:17:51):
We did say that, yeah, and a Golden.

Jules (01:17:52):
Globe nomination for best picture has to land at least
somewhere.

Joseph (01:17:54):
Should not be shut out it should not be shut out.

Jules (01:17:57):
Yeah, I think we weren't able to find any film that was
completely shut out and you hadan open space in screenplay
which technically should havegone to a veteran, but it didn't
seem like any veterans weresort of getting a passionate
following.
Mike Lee wasn't doing too wellwith Heart Truth.

Joseph (01:18:15):
Even though he had the NBR win, which is sometimes
pretty prophetic Sometimessometimes.

Jules (01:18:20):
Jason Reimann's film premiered at Telluride to
enthusiastic response.

Joseph (01:18:23):
And he had to be nominated and you know it was
Saturday Night Live, so you'dthink that a lot of writers
would sort of sympathize withthat topic and be excited about
it.
And then Civil War.

Jules (01:18:32):
Civil War Gun Iron for the Guild.
There weren't a lot of options,and none of the options that
there were were making anyheadway right.
So that left an open spot,right.
And in the event of an openspot, why not just nominate
september 5, right?

Joseph (01:18:45):
um, even though it comes at the expense of what some
people were thinking was gonnahave, that last minute push
right and challengers rightright.

Jules (01:18:53):
But having seen, you know , obviously, if you see, like we
said, if you've seen september5, it's the kind of film that
you can see writers respondingto and as long as you put in the
movie, you know it's a strongmovie and you're going to
respond to it.
So if you can find a space forit at the towards the top of
your ballot, I feel that thatwas likely and luckily enough,

(01:19:14):
the writers branch enough ofthem saw it to nominate it, I
mean yeah, I was going to say ifwe, if we jump back to adapted
screenplay.

Joseph (01:19:23):
It was just another bad day for dune 2.
Denis venu did not score thatscreenplay nomination this time.
Um, so no directing and nowriting.
But you know, congratulationsto nickel boys to be nominated
again.
We were very skeptical thatwriters were going to respond to
the film because of the verynature that it's sort of uh
expressed in or presented in.
Glad to see it there.
But Emilia Perez right, firstmusical there since Chicago in

(01:19:47):
Adapted and since La La Land inoriginal.
But Damien Chazelle and BillCondon were both previous
nominees.
So, Jacques Ariard, on one ofhis first nominations, is able
to be nominated here for EmiliaPerez.
We should also note that weforgot to mention, but in Best
Picture I think we're seeingWicked and Emilia Perez there
two musicals in Best Picture forthe first time since, I believe

(01:20:11):
, oliver and Funny Girl in the60s, in the late 60s, and that
was only five spots, but withten spots we have two musicals
this year too.
So congratulations to anothermusical making into adapted
screenplay.
I think it's- Does it happen?
often Does not happen often.
I think it's a sign of strength, but I also think it's a sign
of I mean, I'm going to go aheadand say that Netflix has enough

(01:20:35):
of a hand in the voter's pocket, because Netflix gets a lot of
questionable nominations,because Netflix gets a lot of
questionable nominations, but wealso had said that that the
Netflix film gets the Netflixfilm, the film that they're
pushing hardest for Best Picture.

Jules (01:20:49):
it tends to get a screenplay nomination.

Joseph (01:20:52):
But we also got it Well.
Has Netflix ever campaigned amusical for screenplay, which
don't tend to do that well?
Here, exactly, and so the statthat Netflix will get its Best
Picture nominee into screenplaysurpasses the idea that musicals
have a tough time here.

Jules (01:21:08):
Well, you know, and in all fairness, they had an easier
time earlier on in the historyof the Academy.
They've been having a hard time, you know, as of late for a
while.
Yeah, that's why you seesomething like West Side story
getting snubbed yeah uh, as amusical and um, several other
examples we've pointed out, um,so those are the screenplay

(01:21:29):
categories for best film editing.
We predicted anora, a completeunknown conclave, dune part two
and amelia, paris, um, and wegot a complete unknown wrong and
, you know, frustratingly so, wegot Dune part two wrong again,
dune really after our, ourpredictions quite a bit, because
we put it for quite a bit oftext Um, and it got some very

(01:21:52):
notable snubs, as we said.
So we got Dune part two wrongand a complete unknown wrong and
instead they nominated theBrutalist, which was a surprise
and a huge surprise.

Joseph (01:22:03):
In Wicked, I think, the Brutalist is the bigger surprise
here because from the Guild andfrom BAFTA, I think even the
BAFTA long list I don't thinkthe Brutalist made it?

Jules (01:22:11):
Yeah, I think it did.
I don't think that it did.

Joseph (01:22:13):
I have to check that, but I'm pretty sure we had
written it off completelybecause it was just so ignored
in this category and the ideathat you know an editor is going
to watch this film and wonder,well, where the hell is the
editing if you've included allthree and a half hours of this
film?
Obviously that didn't happen.

Jules (01:22:28):
Well, again, because we had that sort of mentality, that
way of thinking, we anticipateda snub at the editors and we
weren't surprised by that.
We just thought it would carryover into the Academy and it
didn't Right.

Joseph (01:22:40):
And so I was surprised to see it there.
I had toyed with the idea.
I presented the idea that thelast time Dune was up for
editing, where it won, it was upagainst the editor of Wicked
for Tick, Tick Boom.
And so that was his firstnomination.
I had wondered if he can getback-to-back nominations.
He doesn't have a project inbetween a film project, and so

(01:23:02):
really his last two filmprojects have been nominated for
film editing.
I thought it might have been toosoon and that it might have
been a turnoff for editors tosort of say I don't want to see
another Dune versus musical inthe same category.
Obviously, that was not thecase.
They were more than happy toleave off Joe Walker for Dune 2
and nominate the editor ofWicked again consecutively.

Jules (01:23:23):
Right, and I personally found it very surprising that
they didn't include A CompleteUnknown, because I considered A
Complete Unknown to be a topfive movie and usually you know
if you're a top five movie, youat least land a nomination in
film editing.
It did not get nominated hereand that was surprising to me.
I think it says something thatit didn't get nominated here.

(01:23:46):
It does, and I think it sayssomething that Wicked, a film
like Wicked, got nominatedinstead.
Yeah, I think it does.

Joseph (01:23:51):
And I think it also says something about Onora and the
Brutalist, right?
I don't think the Brutalist wassupposed to be there, and I
think there was an argument thatSean baker didn't need so many
nominations at once.
And yet here he is.
He got all the nominations atonce, and so if you're going to
look at best film, editing tosort of guide you as to who's
going to win best picture, Ithink it's great to see the

(01:24:13):
buddha list and anora here ifthat's who you're pulling for,
yeah, I 100 agree.

Jules (01:24:18):
Um, but again, I was very surprised by the inclusion of
both the buddha list and wicked.
We got those two wrong yeah um,I think very few people.

Joseph (01:24:26):
I think had wicked in best film editing, but the
buddha list was in the goldderby people were pretty bullish
on it, but I thought it wassort of like the way, the way
people were bullish on jomo freygetting in for his wonderful
work on nickel boys where Ithought that that's never going
to happen 100%, and so for bestcinematography going off of that
, we predicted the Brutalist.

Jules (01:24:47):
not difficult to predict Conclave Dune, part 2, maria and
Nosferatu.
We were right on Maria.
If Ed Lockman is going to getan eye for the ASC, he's going
to get an Oscar nomination.

Joseph (01:25:01):
If Ed gets in with his guild, ed gets in and he
absolutely did.

Jules (01:25:04):
I think some people were surprised by that, but we
weren't.
Um, I was really surprised thatconclave did not get an eye for
cinematography.
Um, I, I do think thecinematography is strong and
conclave I just I really thought, I really thought that was a
nomination, that was going tohappen.
But, like like I said earlierin this episode, I always felt
iffy about not including AmeliaPerez because, even though it

(01:25:27):
didn't get nominated for the ASC, it was getting nominated in
all these other important areasand all the important
organizations and, I believe,netflix.
They're the same withscreenplay.
Their films tend to do well incinematography too.
Their Best Picture front runnertends to do well in Best
Cinematography.

Joseph (01:25:46):
Oh yeah, that's the problem.
That's that, in my opinion, is,is again the hand in the pocket
where, like any film ofNetflix's that's up for Best
Picture, has to be nominated forscreenplay, even if it's a
musical, and it has to benominated for cinematography,
even if we're going to nominateNetflix for another film, right,
and the cinematographer is notvery well known and the
cinematography again, it couldnot get into, I believe, eight

(01:26:08):
guild spots.

Jules (01:26:08):
Yeah.

Joseph (01:26:09):
So it ran at the very best ninth at the American.

Jules (01:26:12):
I think there were seven spots.

Joseph (01:26:14):
Seven.
Okay, Well, it ran at the verybest eight.
Right, you know at the AmericanCinematographers Guild.
So you know at the AmericanCinematographers Guild.
So I do think that's a littlebit of the hand in the pocket.

Jules (01:26:24):
Yeah, I mean, I really felt this inclination for a very
long time that Emilia Perez wasgoing to do well in
cinematography, based on thathistory of Netflix, and that you
know they were going to gogoo-goo-gaga over Emilia Perez,
which they did.
That's somewhere that it wouldland, but I didn't know who to
take out for it.

(01:26:44):
Um, and probably most peoplewould have thought, take out
maria.
But I really felt that you know, we were right on with our,
with our stat that if edlockman's going to get in, uh,
with his guilt, he's going toget in here.
I would not have thought thatit would have gotten in over
conclave I was really surprisednot to see Conclave here.

Joseph (01:27:03):
I think Stéphane Fontaine, I think again.
Ironically, he's the go-to DPfor Jacques Ariad Jacques.
Ariad gets this new DP in.
By the way, if you're not a fanof Emilia Perez's
cinematography I certainly wasnot you should revisit the work
of Jacques Ariad's previous film.
Paris 13th District with thissame cinematographer.

(01:27:24):
Much better work Could havebeen nominated for that one
instead.
Even at the Guild it was not.
But so you have two newbies.
Stéphane Fontaine finally brokethrough with the American
Cinematographers Guild.
Some people argue that heshould have been there for
Jackie.
I thought he did a fantastic jobthere too, Finally broke
through, but it just was notenough.
I think a factor here might besomething that we can sort of

(01:27:47):
see happening other years andmaybe we had alluded to among
ourselves is the idea thatbecause all choir in the western
front ends up winning thiscategory right even without a
guild nomination, that there maybe some pushback or hesitancy,
or, you know, some people whodidn't want to go ahead and give
edward berger anothercinematography nomination, even

(01:28:09):
if they're two differentcinematographers, even if
they're two differentcinematographers, um, but you
know he did break through stefanwith uh the guild, so I think
that's a good sign.
Again, the irony to not see himhere and jacquard yards uh dp
that he's been working withrecently did get in um kind of
funny.
Um.
I do think it's also importantto mention ed lockman, I think

(01:28:32):
first cinematographer sinceroger deakins and emmanuel in
2014 for Unbroken and Birdman,to repeat in 2015, I believe,
with Sicario and the Revenant.
So Ed Lachman, first DP to goback-to-back, remember, he sort
of maybe stole a nomination lastyear, I'm sorry, 2023 with El

(01:28:56):
Conde for another Pablo film.
So certainly cinematographersstarting to have that respect
for Pablo Larraín films here andcertainly the master at Lachman
.

Jules (01:29:05):
Yes, and so that was cinematography.
For production design, weactually got the five that were
right the Boudalas Conclave,Doom Part II, Nosferatu and
Wicked no surprises there.
We thought the spoiler could bea complete unknown, but we
liked its chances more incostume design.
We'll get to that in a minutethe curse of the contemporary
right.
What did not did not workagainst conclave, conclave was

(01:29:27):
able to beat that a couple oftimes, I think right and so, um,
I think that might have beenthe gold derby five, I'm not
sure, but regardless we got the,the five that made it to the
oscars.
And costume design this was avery strange category for me, um
, because, okay, so we predicteda complete unknown.
Which got in conclave?

(01:29:48):
Which got in dune part two,which did not get in Nosferatu
and wicked, which did?
And instead of dune part two,they nominated gladiator two,
and you and I were, I were very,I think, adamant that it would
knock an eye for costume design,because she was just nominated
last year for napoleon and thisended up being gladiator 2's

(01:30:13):
only nomination, uh, which againhurt our predictions, because
we had pegged it for at leasttwo more.
Um, so glad, you're tooseverely underperformed.
Um, and it landed the surprise,uh, costume nomination.
Not because you know, I can seethem responding to the work and
obviously it's very showy work.

Joseph (01:30:34):
So I understand the nomination, but I really didn't
think that she would benominated so soon after napoleon
the irony that this costumedesigner for a large part of her
career goes ignored after rightbeing nominated and, I believe,
winning for gladiator one maybebreaking through last year for

(01:30:54):
napoleon and able to getconsecutive nominations now and
to be the only nomination forgladiator 2, is something that
could only be written by themovie gods but maybe that, maybe
that's something that we shouldhave paid more attention to.

Jules (01:31:08):
She got nominated for the first gladiator, and so the
chances of her repping a sequel,you know, and her getting
nominated for that sequel, weremaybe stronger than we had
thought.

Joseph (01:31:21):
I just don't know how you're supposed to play the card
, that that's your mentality,and not that Arthur Max is going
to get in for production designwhen he's so beloved there, or
that Ridley Scott is going to beable by the virtue of being a
Ridley Scott film, he's going tobe able to survive the visual
effects long list and make itinto that final five nominees.
So it's a very tough thing tocall that the gladiator

(01:31:44):
nomination.
If you only had one nominationto give, it would be for costume
design.
For this costume designer rightum, congratulations to her.
Um, I did think actually acomplete unknown might factor
into production design.
We're not surprised again tosee arian phillips here
nominated, because we called thethe bath to bounce back in our
costume design breakdown beforenominations.
So not surprising to see that.

(01:32:05):
And we have our crossover withnas for all too wicked and
conclave in production designagain conclave, able to sort of
be the curse of the contemporaryfilm, and I will say that maybe
the sleeper here that maybecould have tipped you off into
gladiator 2 for costume design,the idea that you and I had,

(01:32:25):
which is that you gotta have acouple of period pieces in this
category, and you had nosferatuand that's her first nomination.
Congratulations to her too.
Um, oh yes, but other than thatyou really had a fantasy film,
a contemporary film, and theother period film wasn't even
nominated from the guild, right,and so I think a lot of people

(01:32:48):
were thinking maria, right.
I don't know what we werepicking at the end.

Jules (01:32:51):
We were picking as a spoiler maria also maria, also
as a spoiler.

Joseph (01:32:55):
Um, but sort of gladiator, sort of takes that
period piece, sort of nominationyeah and uh, so we got that one
wrong.

Jules (01:33:03):
Um, glad to again very, very, very strange nomination,
but, uh, congratulations to herand her team.
Um, makeup and hairstyling, uh,we got one wrong here and again
.
Um, I believe that it's Dunethat bit us in the butt Again.
We have A Different man whichgot nominated Dune Part 2, which

(01:33:28):
did not, nosferatu which did,the Substance which did and
Wicked, which did, and thenominee that we missed was
Emilia Perez, who was reallygaining steam in the last minute
.
It got nominated for that BAFTAnomination.
It did well in the makeup andhairstyling guild and so that
was a nomination that I reallywanted to put, that I really

(01:33:51):
felt was going to happen.
Um, and I just didn't know whoto take out for.
Who to take it out for.
I thought Dune had to getnominated here.

Joseph (01:34:06):
Um, and I mean in terms of crossover.
You see Nosferatu and Wickedbeing costume films here.
I think that's important, thatcrossover factor.
I think the Emilia Perez teamare all sort of newbies here.
They don't have the mostreputable amount of work for for
this guild I'm sorry for thisbranch of the Academy as does

(01:34:28):
the substance.
I'm not sure I saw them bothgetting in.
They both did get in Right.
Um, a different man is differentbecause you know, he's uh has a
team member that's beennominated multiple times.
Yes, um, not really.
Not really surprised to see adifferent man there.

Jules (01:34:40):
Yeah me neither.

Joseph (01:34:42):
I will say to me, the biggest thing to talk about here
is the lack of real persons.
Yes, you know the lack of realfigures in this category.
Right, there's a pattern.

Jules (01:34:50):
There's a trend that they like to nominate a film that is
about a real life figure, andusually that dovetails with a
actor who's nominated for thatmovie.
An acting nomination Exactly.
Think Tammy Faye in the eyes of.
Think Jessica Chastain in theeyes of Tammy Faye.
Renee Zellweger, judy MarianneCotillard, lavianne Rawls.

(01:35:13):
They'd like to include a filmabout a real life figure and you
know, coincidentally or not,that film also has an acting
nomination.
There was not.
That didn't happen this year.
The options were Maria theApprentice.

Joseph (01:35:30):
Waltzing with Brando technically.

Jules (01:35:31):
Waltzing with Brando and we really thought that the
Apprentice had a shot.
I think the makeup andespecially the hairstyling work
in that film is phenomenal.
I thought that it had a darkhorse shot of getting nominated
here.

Joseph (01:35:45):
And Ali Abassi technically got his film Order
nominated here also in 2018.

Jules (01:35:49):
Exactly, but they chose to not include any real life
figure.

Joseph (01:35:53):
Which is weird because again we talk about someone like
Golda last year.
I'm not sure how many precursornominations it got to that one
nomination last year for Golda.
It might not have had any.

Jules (01:36:08):
And so I think it's important.

Joseph (01:36:09):
You know when they sort of I got, I got an eye for, I
got an eye for the, the makeupguild, in one category.
One category, well, it didn'thave very many, it wasn't a very
large team, or a veryexperienced team, a very noted
team, um, in terms of you knowhow they've been, how you know
how much of the work has beenexposed to the Academy.
But I think it's reallyinteresting to see no real
figures in this category.

Jules (01:36:26):
You do have um actors who are nominated.

Joseph (01:36:29):
You do.

Jules (01:36:29):
So you have uh Demi Moore in the substance, you have
Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivofor wicked, and you have uh Zoe
Zaldana and Carlos Sofia Gasgone for Amita Paris.

Joseph (01:36:40):
So this category has a connection with the acting
categories in a way, just notthrough the vessel of a real
life figure this year I think Iquoted 2016 Florence Foster
Jenkins again a year without anexpanded list of five, as the
last time without any realfigures and the last time
without any performance, and thenominee that year one would
suspect would have been FlorenceFoster Jenkins, to be both a

(01:37:03):
nominee for actress and based ona real person.

Jules (01:37:06):
Right In the category of best original score.
We got four out of five.
We got the Brutalist.
We missed Challengers, which Ireally thought would happen.
Even if I thought initially youknow in this season that
they're not going to nominatethat kind of score it started
picking up steam.
It won a score at the GoldenGlobes.

(01:37:27):
Um, we had observed a patternthat if you win something at the
Golden Globes you should getnominated somewhere.
Um, this was, I thought,challenger's best shot to get
nominated here.
It did miss the BAFTA long list.
That should have been a cluefor us.
It sadly got snubbed.
It's the score of the year andit's unfortunate that didn't

(01:37:49):
make it here.
Instead, they nominated Wicked,which we'll get to in a minute,
which was a very surprisingConclave, emilia Perez and the
Wild Robot.
But I was this close topredicting Wicked for best score
.
I thought that this was anopportunity to nominate Stephen

(01:38:10):
Schwartz as a composer.
He's had several nominations,some of them, or majority of
them, for song, maybe one or twofor score, and this was a
perfect opportunity to nominatehim, and he is so associated to
the success of that originalBroadway musical.
So that really made me thinkand pause, as a nomination that

(01:38:35):
could really happen and at theend I just I didn't, I didn't, I
didn't put it and uh, you know,that's one of those nominations
that makes me upset that Ididn't call.

Joseph (01:38:44):
Usually you'll see this category be a mix of the Globe
nominees and the BAFTA nomineesand the BAFTA long list.
That wasn't the case.
Wicked was not nominated foreither.
I think that the Challengerssolo nomination for Reznor and
Ross didn't materialize.
So Reznor and Ross, every timethey've been nominated, has been

(01:39:04):
with other mentions for theirfilms, and Challengers
unfortunately ran really behindin other categories.
I think that you know.
Congratulations Chris Bowers,who finally breaks into this
category.
Not a lot of veterans, I thinkonly Volker for Conclave,
stephen Schwartzartzcongratulations first nomination
that's not an animated featurein this category.

(01:39:27):
So I think he was mentioned forhunchback of notre dame and
pocahontas and some disney stuffand some song prince of egypt.
Um, some song work as well, butit's very odd to have wicked
here.
I think the last musical thatwe were able to quote as uh
being nominated in this categorywas annie and I think again a
movie based on a broadwaymusical.

(01:39:48):
Um, that was annie, and it wasin a category.
I believe that was aspecialized category to
recognize music in a film thathad sort of been inspired or had
been based on music from abroadway show, so sort of a
category that was created justfor this sort of occasion, and
so to have this movie there sortof breaks that trend, since I

(01:40:10):
think 1982 was annie, um.
But I think it's also awkwardbecause I'm not sure many people
are going to be able to quotethe music, the original score of
wicked right, and so to me it'sa very, a very awkward
nomination.
And I wonder if it's a very, avery awkward nomination and I
wonder if it's a nomination, youknow, based more on the name of
stephen schwartz uhcongratulations also to john

(01:40:31):
powell, who was nominated aspart of the team of wicked.
Ironically, john powell, this ishis second nomination.
I believe his first nominationcame from scoring the dreamworks
film how to train your dragon,which chris bowers, of course.
This year scoring theDreamWorks film how to Train
your Dragon, which Chris Bowers,of course this year scoring the
DreamWorks film getting hisfirst nomination for that as
well, yeah, very interesting Notvery often that DreamWorks is
able to break into this categoryso that's a big news for the

(01:40:52):
Wild Robot.

Jules (01:40:53):
Right, and we'll get to it in a minute, but they didn't
just break into this category,they broke into Sound.

Joseph (01:40:57):
Design yes yes, okay.

Jules (01:40:58):
So the next category best song.
Unfortunately, we only gotthree right here, which is
frustrating.
So we got we predicted CompressRepress from Challengers.
El Mal from Emilia Perez, theJourney from the 6888, mi Camino
from Emilia Perez, and Sick inthe Head for kneecap.
We thought this was a perfectopportunity to nominate kneecap

(01:41:21):
what the hell happened which haddone so well at the bafta, it
just didn't materialize.
Um, I will say that I always hada doubt about not including
sing, sing like a bird.
Um, well, the nominees were uh,el mal, a minute per like mi
camino, milia, paris.
Uh, the journey, this six,triple eight.
Like a bird for sing, sing andnever too late, elton john,

(01:41:42):
never too late, and so I Ialways felt iffy about not
including it.
The Journey to the 6888, like aBird for Sing, sing and Never
Too Late, elton John, never TooLate, and so I always felt iffy
about not including it, becauseit just this category, this
branch, likes to include songsthat are related to films, that
sort of are have a sort ofsocial cause attached to them.
That's something they do often,um, and there was an

(01:42:02):
opportunity to do that here with, uh, like a bird from sing sing
.

Joseph (01:42:06):
It was certainly something that I heavily
considered, but I just left offand we failed there there's the
idea also that you know thiscategory has been leaning on
maybe two best picture nominees.
So yes, if you had consideredsing sing to be one of the
leading uh, best picturenominees among that list of
think 10 titles in the originalsong category.

Jules (01:42:26):
that might have also given you extra oomph to want to
nominate that song 100% yeah,and I will say I really did not
think that they were going tonominate Elton John again for
Never Too Late, after he had wonan Oscar in 2019 for the
Rocketman film.
Um, and it just seems a littlebit too obvious to me right like

(01:42:49):
okay, elton john legend icongetting nominated again in this
category for a documentary, Ibelieve it is a documentary and
so about him, right so I don'tknow.
For me it just felt too on thenose and it happened, so I mean
wrong.

Joseph (01:43:03):
I think we had mentioned before how this category does
embrace documentaries andspecifically when it comes to
documentaries about musicians,they tend to be very welcoming.
If you remember glenn campbellI'll be me.

Jules (01:43:14):
He was able to be an iron for that.

Joseph (01:43:15):
I guess what's awkward here is that you just gave him
the award for rocket man, whichwas also about Right, and you
didn't have to do that.
So to me this is yet anotherone of those nominations where
maybe you're just checking offthe name.

Jules (01:43:28):
Elton John, yeah, but I will also say this category, and
this is one reason that I endedup predicting we predicted a
compress repress for challengers.
Is this category really likestheir musicians?

Joseph (01:43:38):
Yeah.

Jules (01:43:38):
They're, you know, artists who are well known in
the music world, and so TrentReznor and Atticus Ross Nine
Inch Nails they're musicians.
They've never been nominated inthis category Seemed like a
perfect opportunity.
But Elton John is Elton Johnand Brandi Carlile, who's
featured in the song, is BrandiCarlile, and so maybe that
should have been a clue thathere are two huge musicians and

(01:44:03):
here we have the opportunity tonominate both of them.
Um, that should have maybe putus on the path towards never too
late I think it's such a shamethat they didn't find room for
kneecap.

Joseph (01:44:11):
I really do think that's a big shame.
That would have been thestorybook ending to that?

Jules (01:44:14):
yeah, that would be cool yeah um, I'm not sure.

Joseph (01:44:17):
I don't think that it got listed for foreign film, but
I think this was the categoryto nominate that film and sort
of introduce those musiciansinto a wider audience.
Right Again, it feels a littlebit iffy to me, a little bit
icky, to have Elton John hereyet again, having won so
recently.
I like the Stephen Schwartzthing.
I think there's a name factorgoing on here, but yeah, those

(01:44:39):
ended up being the nominees.
Really sad not to see Nika onthis list.

Jules (01:44:42):
Right, and we had, as a spoiler, winter coat for blitz
blitz being completely blanked.

Joseph (01:44:48):
Blitz the warning that whoever wants to be number one
in a few months and gold Derby,you know that's.
That's a punishment.

Jules (01:44:59):
Nobody wants to carry that cross unless you're.

Joseph (01:45:00):
Morris Scorsese, please don't try not to be number one,
because you know it's going toblow up in your face.

Jules (01:45:03):
Moving on to best sound, we got one wrong here, and so we
predicted A Complete Unknown,dune Part 2, again Emilia Perez,
gladiator 2, and Wicked, andinstead the nominees were Dune
Part 2, wicked, a CompleteUnknown, emilia Perez and the

(01:45:25):
Wild Robot, and so that was asurprise.
I really would not havepredicted the Wild Robot for
Best Sound Design, even thoughthere's a link that you'll talk
about soon that maybe could havemade you foresee, possibly the
Wild Robot, but I doubt it.
I didn't think that they wouldnominate the wild robot.

(01:45:47):
I thought the spoiler would beblitz, um, and yeah, I certainly
didn't think that.
Uh, there should be a carryoverfor visual effects and there
was and there was for there wasfor dune and for wicked that's
right that's right.
I guess I would have thoughtthat there would have also been
one for Gladiator 2.
There wasn't, but what's thelink that you want to talk?

Joseph (01:46:09):
about.
Well, I would say that we knowthe three locks are there, right
, but we had always said thatsomeone from Original Score,
those top 15 from Original Scorelongas, someone should be there
for Score.
Someone should be there for ascore, at least one.
The obvious candidate for uswas Emilia Perez.
We sort of said well, is thereenough room to nominate Emilia
Perez as a second musical?

(01:46:29):
here, I think it joins Wicked asthe only two musicals to be
nominated here since I think Ibelieve the 60s, I think again
in this era of Funny Girl andOliver, and I think there was
even four nominated that year,so it doesn't happen very often
at all.
So they was able to sort oftake what I believe is the
original score nomination intothe sound nomination but, lo and

(01:46:52):
behold, that's what the wildrobot is able to do as well.
So you had two films score,score uh, score uh, original
score nominations and soundnominations.
So I just goes to show you howimportant that score nomination
is to show up in sound.
I think we had talked about thevisual effects connection right
, and we did have that with dune.
I think we were pegginggladiator 2 for that to sort of

(01:47:13):
bridge visual effects and sound,but it ended up being wicked
and I think that has a lot to dowith sort of what we felt would
be a bias against Wicked in thevisual effects category when we
finally talk about it.
But other than that, I think youknow it's probably a good time
to start mentioning you know youtake your hat off to DreamWorks
, which we'll talk about it whenwe get to Animated Feature, but

(01:47:37):
they're able to score threenominations.
I believe that is the mostnominations that DreamWorks has
been able to score across theacademy award categories,
beating their previous high oftwo with something like how to
train your dragon or somethinglike shrek, even with animated
feature and screenplay, Ibelieve.
So congratulations to them,finally landing more than two
nominations but still beingghettoized out of best picture.

Jules (01:48:00):
So right, there's always that right, and then moving on,
we're going to talk about visualeffects right now, and so we
had predicted better.
Man doom, part two, gladiatorto kingdom of the planet of the
apes, and mufasa, the lion king,the obvious person here, the
obvious candidate here,contender here that we didn't
put was wicked because wethought that again, uh, the
visual effects branch was goingto react a little bit more,

(01:48:25):
let's say, skeptical.

Joseph (01:48:28):
Yeah, sort of like the Guild, the visual effects
society, which only nominatedfor one award and not the
biggest award.
And if you look at the visualeffects in that movie.
Certain aspects are done well,other aspects, I think, are done
not so well, and there's someelements that feel revisited
right In terms of animals andsort of I don't know how much
innovation you would claim themovie has but the team in and of

(01:48:49):
itself, the team isfantastically well nominated in
their career, so that might havebeen the deciding factor.

Jules (01:48:56):
We should have put more weight on that.
Wicked did get in and alsoAlien Romulus got in, better man
, king of the planet of the apesand doom part two.
So alien romulus ended upgetting in, um, which I'm happy
to see.
I was a big fan of that movie,better man.
I'm glad the better man gotsomething.
Um, I will say that we hadpredicted mufasa the lion king,

(01:49:20):
because because Disney does wellin this category.

Joseph (01:49:23):
Disney has been in the category ever since they've
expanded to five nominees, so Ithink the last time was 09, back
of District 9, avatar and StarTrek that Disney was left out of
this category.

Jules (01:49:34):
Right, and that proved not to be the case this year.

Joseph (01:49:37):
That fell.
It was either Mufasa orDeadpool, and we had said that.
You know Sean Levy in 21.
Laps has a way of sneaking intothis category without any sort
of precursor attentionwhatsoever.
But that was not the case.

Jules (01:49:51):
And also we had said that it was weird to include Alien
Romulus alongside Gladiator 2.

Joseph (01:49:55):
Right.

Jules (01:49:56):
And we felt pretty sure about Gladiator 2 here.

Joseph (01:49:59):
We had mentioned that Ridley Scott tends to.
Whenever he's on this long list, he tends to survive the final
five nominees Exactly.
And so what?

Jules (01:50:06):
ended up happening was.

Joseph (01:50:08):
Insult to injury.

Jules (01:50:09):
Insult to injury, they picked the other, ridley Scott
related film and not the RidleyScott directed film the not the
Ridley Scott directed film,another one of his franchises
that are stolen from him.

Joseph (01:50:19):
So they do nominate that .
I will say we've always talkedabout the connection between
sound and visual effects and youhave two sound nominees dune,
part two and wicked in visualeffects top five.
But we've always talked abouthow there should be more than
that and you really have threeshortlisted films on the sound
design list that are not forvisual effects, because alien

(01:50:40):
romulus right was shortlistedfor sound and it was also
shortlisted for score.
So again, just that idea of howthese categories are tied
together, yeah and so that mighthave been a good tip off for
alien romulus.
I think we're both really happyto see better man and kingdom of
the planet yates there becausethey were some of the films that
were sort of getting pushed outof every other category and

(01:51:00):
part of us was having theargument of can you really
nominate both sort of ape films?
Yeah, monkey films right umespecially when they're coming
from the same sort of uh visualeffects house, uh weta.
So it's it's great to see themboth there.

Jules (01:51:15):
I think they would not both be there had they not both
been baffled nominees and, youknow, leaders among the visual
effects society nominees yeah,100 I agree, and so paramount we
had talked about for a secondthat both Ben Bafta nominees and
leaders among the VisualEffects Society nominees yeah,
100% I agree, and so.

Joseph (01:51:25):
Paramount we had talked about for a second that
Paramount, how difficult itwould be for it to get Better
man and Gladiator 2 there, andyet again.
So we're seeing this sort oftrend where Paramount was able
to get Gladiator in for one,Better man in for one, September
5 in for one, and they just hada horrible year after having
two fantastic films and one filmthat was disappointing but, you

(01:51:47):
know, picked up a good load ofcash internationally right and
then in the quote-unquote,ghettoized categories of
animated feature, documentaryfeature, international film.

Jules (01:51:57):
So animated feature were the five from gold derby.
We got those right.
The wild robot flow inside outto member of a snail waltz and
grommet vengeance most foul.
Um, we were afraid that moana 2would make a sneak attack last
minute because of the amount of,because it's a category more
open.
Uh to who?
because everyone can vote for it, even over individuals who work

(01:52:19):
in the animation industry, andso because we think a lot of
parents took their kids to seeMoana 2, we were afraid of that.
Luckily it didn't happen andsomething like Memoir of a Snail
, which is a beautiful film,survived and is on this list, so
no surprises in that category.

Joseph (01:52:35):
I'm very happy to see Memoirs there.
I was really getting scaredthat it wasn't going to be able
to get in.
Let's take our hats off tojanice first time breaking into
this category with flow um ifc.
First time getting into thiscategory with memories of a
snail um.
Adam gets nominated again afterhaving one animated short film

(01:52:55):
uh, you know, you still see thepowerhouses there of uh, pixar
and dreamworks.
There again dreamworks.
Three nominations, that's,that's a high.
Netflix is still here withwallace and gromit um, but yeah,
I think it's great to seememorable snail survive that
late onslaught.
I'm gonna want to hear it 100and uh, similarly international

(01:53:18):
film.

Jules (01:53:19):
Um, we predicted emilia Perez Flo I'm Still here the Sea
of the Sacred Fig and Vermiglio, from Italy, and I felt pretty
good about those five.
I was disappointed to see thatVermiglio did not get nominated

(01:53:39):
and instead a very surprisinginclusion with the Girl with the
needle, uh, which I felt prettysure was not going to ganaya
for foreign film just because ofthe nature of the movie.
It's a dark film, um, it'sbeautifully shot, but it's a
dark material and it's not thekind of material that I think
they tend to recognize, whereassomething like vermiglio was.

(01:54:00):
It seemed so, um, you know, uh,lush and you know, like a novel
, um, and so it surprises methat it wasn't included.
It won the uh second, secondprize for, uh, the Venice Film
Festival, and so I wasdisappointed to see Vermiglio.

(01:54:20):
I'm surprised to see the Girlwith the Needle.
Yeah, what do you?

Joseph (01:54:25):
think Well, congrats to Latvia finally getting nominated
here for Flow.
We thought that again, justthat idea of getting a country
nominated for the first time isenough impetus to get a film
like Flow and a country likeLatvia nominated.
Flow, of course joining Fleaand Waltz of Bashir, as one of
the few films to be nominatedboth in animated feature and in

(01:54:46):
documentary.
So congratulations, and toJanice as well, but we have to
also congratulate Mubi forgetting the.
Girl with the Needle in which wethought was just going to be
too somber and maybe too odd ofa film for them to recognize.
They were able to get it in.
Of course it won the cameraimage maybe that might have

(01:55:06):
helped it did really well at con.
But movie finally breaks intothis category, which is great.
So that's now a sixthnomination for movie, after
having a fantastic day with thesubstance.
Um, I think to me of note is,you know, congratulations to
france for finally getting therecipe right and able to crash
this list.

Jules (01:55:24):
I have been doubting all year.

Joseph (01:55:27):
This is another one of those where I said nope, nope,
nope.
And it ended up being nominated.

Jules (01:55:31):
Um, that said, I think it's a very weird nomination
because it's almost likecountry-less you know, and I
think we're seeing some of thatstarting to play out a little
too late.

Joseph (01:55:41):
Exactly.
I think think we'll.
Hopefully we'll get into that alittle bit later, um but uh,
congratulations to france forfinally sort of hitting the nail
on the head, even though it maybe a little bit bittersweet at
this moment.
And the other thing I'll say iswe had talked about sony
picture classics coming backinto dominance, getting two
nominations between I'm stillhere and kneecap uh, did not

(01:56:01):
happen.
And then we had toyed with theidea in our predictions with
Janice being sort of that newpowerhouse to get two films here
, Did not happen either, becauseMubi got in there instead.
So very interesting to see Mubifinally break into this category
.

Jules (01:56:14):
Right, and so that was interesting to see.
Our spoiler was how to MakeMillions.
Before Grandma Dies, which wasa huge hit in Thailand.
That did not happen.
Before Grandma Dies, which wasa huge hit in Thailand.
That did not happen.
The Netflix movie to get in wasEmilia Perez.
Again, we predicted it.
You were always skittish on it.

Joseph (01:56:30):
I told you, I really thought that France doesn't know
what they're doing.

Jules (01:56:33):
I understood the reasoning to be skittish, but it
had amassed such power by thenthat I thought no way they're
going to leave it out of foreignfilm.
And then Documentary feature umhad one surprise, uh,
non-inclusion um, and that wasdaughters, which I thought would
definitely get nominated, andit did not get nominated.

(01:56:53):
I thought it was a dark horseto win, exactly.
And uh, so we had predictednorthern land daughters, sugar
cane, soundtrack to a coupd'etat and Black Box Diaries.
However, we were always, always, always worried about Porcelain
.

Joseph (01:57:06):
War.
I told you that that PorcelainWar nomination at the PGA and at
the DGA just goes to show youthat again the stat holds that
if you're a PGA nominee or a DGAnominee on the documentary side
, you know that's a huge boostto you once you make that
initial long list.

Jules (01:57:22):
Right and so we got Daughters Wrong and instead they
put in Porcelain War, and Ibelieve Netflix misses this
category.

Joseph (01:57:30):
Yeah which is a very rare thing, right, and we had
sort of talked about how maybethe lack of distributor for no
Other Land might have been afactor.
It was not a factor.

Jules (01:57:38):
Not a factor, and so I think that's probably the
favorite to win.
But we'll get into winners at alater date, a later time, I
mean, and so you know, thesurprise there, I think, was the
snub for daughters.
I would have thought somethinglike Black Box Diaries would be
snubbed before daughters would.
But again, I did feel prettygood about Black Box Diaries,

(01:58:00):
just based on what it's about.
And so, yeah, porcelain Warmakes it in.

Joseph (01:58:05):
Yeah, pretty surprising, though, about Daughters?
Yeah, pretty surprising, eventhough, looking at the nominees,
I wonder if that inclusion ofPorcelain War, which arguably is
the one that was maybe leastanticipated to make this list I
believe it premiered at Sundancetoo, alongside Daughters, so

(01:58:28):
maybe there's this idea thatthey really only had room for
one film that conjured up thatenergy since Sundance, right,
and Porcelain War had done suchan excellent job at again being
represented at the PGA and theDGA, maybe that was the one to
sort of steal that spot fromDaughters right and uh, we
didn't talk much about theshorts.

Jules (01:58:39):
We predicted them on our Twitter page, um, but we didn't
uh talk about it in any episode,so we'll just go through it
right now.
Um, for animated short, whichwe did pretty well, we got four
right out of five.
Again, it's notoriously wrong.
It's notoriously difficult toget these right 100, but we
certainly try.
I, I, we both tried to watch asmany as we could before

(01:59:03):
predicting to see if we couldget them um 100 right or close
to 100.
Um, so for best animated short,we predicted a bear named watch
tech, beautiful man in theshadow of the cypress, wonder to
wonder, wander to wonder andyuck, and the only one to not
make it in was a bear namedWatchtuck.
Which I thought was a shoe-inRight and instead it was Magic

(01:59:25):
Candies Right, and I thinkthat's an interesting inclusion,
because we had said that thatseemed like something that could
happen because a nomination forthat short film.

Joseph (01:59:36):
Yeah, for that filmmaker who has a history of you know
working in the animationindustry for such a long time, a
history of you know working inthe animation industry for such
a long time, and you know, I'msure a lot of anime fans are
going to recognize him from hiswork on things like dragon ball
z that that would have alwaysbeen very tempting and it's.
It's great to see him here beingnow in print academy award
right.
So if you're into animation,you're really happy for that
nomination for him, and that'swhat happened here.

(01:59:58):
I think that's something thatplayed a big part in this
nomination that might that mighthave been the factor here.
I think it's sort of interestingto me looking at this list and
we had talked about it.
I had wondered, you know, if wehave sort of Memoir of a Snail
and Wallace and Gromit on theanimated feature side, if
they're going to try to stayaway from stop motion on the

(02:00:20):
animated short side.
That was not the case, becauseyou have Wander to Wonder there,
you have magic candies and youhave beautiful men.
So that was not the case, um,but I think we mostly had them
right.
I was surprised by a bear namedwatch tech not getting in.
Um, it was a different style offilm, a different style of
animation that hadn'tnecessarily been appropriately
recognized and featured thisyear and um, so I thought that

(02:00:40):
might have been.
It's uh, maybe it's a little bitof an angle to get in and maybe
a little bit more seriousminded right but then it got
sort of upset maybe by somethinglike in the shadow of the
cypress, which also maybe alittle more, a little bit more
serious minded right um, indocumentary short, we predicted
death by numbers I am readywarden incident michaela's voice

(02:01:01):
, a letter to the the World andA Swim Lesson.

Jules (02:01:05):
And the nominees were I Am Ready Warden Incident Death
by Numbers the Only Girl in theOrchestra and Instruments of a
Beating Heart.
Now we got three right here.
The ones that we got wrong isNetflix does really well in
these short categories.
Yeah, and so in thisdocumentary short category
especially.
But I really pegged along withmost people.

(02:01:27):
I think that Michaela's voice A.
Letter to the World would be theNetflix documentary short to
get in, and it wasn't.
It was the other documentaryshort that was on the short list
, the Only Girl in the Orchestra, which did get in.
I'm very surprised by that,honestly.
You know, I reallythoughtaela's voice was a

(02:01:47):
shoo-in.
Obviously it wasn't.
Um, I think I can see theappeal for the documentary
branch to include the only girlin the orchestra the historical
factor right exactly um, butstill it was a surprise
inclusion, um, and a surprisesubstitution for Michaela's
voice and then Instruments of aBeating Heart.

(02:02:09):
I think that short is veryinteresting because, knowing a
little bit about the history ofthat short, it took such a long
time to make several years.
As we're following this classof graduating kindergartens,
children from kindergarten, andyou know I'm surprised that it

(02:02:30):
was included here.
But I wonder if something likethat for a film that took so
long to make, Maybe that was afactor.

Joseph (02:02:35):
That that was a factor.
Yeah, it might've been a factor.
I mean great to see BillMorrison here, right For
Incident.

Jules (02:02:40):
Yes, right.

Joseph (02:02:41):
Fantastic documentarian.
Finally, first nomination.

Jules (02:02:44):
An incredible, incredible filmmaker First nomination.
Very happy for that.
That short is an incredibleshort.
It should probably win out ofthis list, I would say I hope it
does.
Really a testament to the powerof documentary filmmaking.
So I'm very happy to see thatMTV does pretty well in the
documentary category and I thinkthey're associated to.

(02:03:06):
I am ready warden.

Joseph (02:03:07):
I think they are I think they are too.

Jules (02:03:09):
Yeah, and so that's on paramount that's something that
I, uh, I saw as a very bigpossibility, even if I wasn't
crazy about the short, the topicstood out the topic in and of
itself stood out um and death bynumbers is a very timely topic
as well.

Joseph (02:03:22):
You had mentioned the idea that among the long-listed
documentary short films thatthere was almost too much
youthful children energy thatthey weren't going to be able to
survive.

Jules (02:03:33):
So there was a short that was dealing with the war in
Ukraine through the perspectiveof children.
That was a favorite to get in.

Joseph (02:03:41):
Of course, in a war gun nominated instead for the
Ukraine perspective, exactly.

Jules (02:03:45):
Um, and that short got snubbed here, which I was always
iffy about because I think itwas a little odd to see the, the
, the, that crisis and that warthrough the perspective of a
child or children.
So I thought that that might besomething that might make them
less thrilled to uh, nominate it, um for documentary short.
Um, it did get snubbed.

(02:04:06):
Um, I thought, rashida jones wasgonna make it I I love rashida
jones uh short film that shemade with her partner well, I
think, is it in will, I believeit's will gluck I think so.
Um, and that's a beautifulshort film.
I thought that that that was ashoe in it's sort of.
I wouldn't call it a crowdpleaser, but it's certainly the
kind of short that uh is.

(02:04:28):
Uh, you know something that Ithink you would respond to if
you watch uh, enjoyable andtouching and poignant and, um,
just really touching.

Joseph (02:04:36):
I really was a big fan of that short, um excuse me,
it's actually Will McCormick,the co-director of that film,
right?

Jules (02:04:45):
exactly excuse us, um, and so I I was disappointed not
to see that uh short make it inhere, but again, I do.
I think I agree with you, therewas too much children in this
category and they had to pick,and I think they picked a more
uh, more timelier topics than aswim lesson, unfortunately.
I love that short.
And so, the last category, bestlive action short.

(02:05:10):
Um, our predictions were anujaI'm not a robot, the man who
could not remain silent, anorange from jaffa and room
takenen.
And so, uh, we got three out offive right here the man who
could not remain silent, anujaand I'm not a robot, um, and the
ones we got wrong is they didnominate, did they not?

(02:05:32):
They did not nominate an orangefrom Jaffa or Room Taken.
Instead, they nominated Alienand the Last Ranger.
Now, I was surprised by theinclusion of Alien.
I saw that short.
I was not a big fan of it, butit's certainly a very timely
topic, certainly in thepolitical climate that we're

(02:05:54):
living in, and I think that hada lot to do with how the film
managed to get this nomination.
I'm very happy to see I'm not arobot, I'm not a robot on here.
I think that was a really coolshort.
I think it's well done, um, andI really enjoyed that short.
I think a film, a short filmlike Anuja kind of felt like a
no-brainer to me just based onwhat it's about.

(02:06:15):
And probably the favorite ofthis category to win as of now
is the man who Can Now RemainSilent, probably one of the most
decorated short films of theyear.
I think the surprise inclusionhere besides Alien is the Last
Ranger, which I don't think alot of people were pegging to
get in here.

Joseph (02:06:32):
I think the same.
I think that what ends uphappening is that Alien and the
Last Ranger end up surviving thelong list due to the fact that
I think they have a differentperspective and a different
topic that they're trying tocover, and so, when you look at
the list, the list is reallywell-rounded in different topics
, different social issues thatall the films are trying to

(02:06:53):
tackle, and I think that'salways a major factor into being
nominated or not, and so itmakes perfect sense to me that
both those films were able toedge out their competition and
get nominated.

Jules (02:07:05):
Right.

Joseph (02:07:06):
I will say, looking at this list, congrats to all the
nominees.
But it does remind me aboutsomething that I wanted to say
about international film, whichis that we continue on that dry
spell with no female filmmakerbecause Vermiglio was snubbed.

Jules (02:07:22):
Right.

Joseph (02:07:22):
And I think that's a shame and I think you know it
would be wrong to end thisepisode without mentioning right
100.

Jules (02:07:29):
I agree with that.

Joseph (02:07:30):
I think that was a big shame as well, but yeah, but
congratulations to all thesefilms and all these filmmakers
that got nominated.
I think you said that you're abig fan of I'm not.

Jules (02:07:37):
I'm not a robot oh, yes, yes, um, I really like that
short film a lot and it's always.
I think these short categoriesare some of the cooler
categories because you get tosee these filmmakers who are
just starting out in theircareer have such a big spotlight
an Oscar nomination.

(02:07:57):
So it's really nice to see theirinclusion in the ceremony and
how ecstatic they are to be, uh,included yeah in this uh, in
this event and the work is, youknow, compelling yeah, and so
I'm always happy to see uh shortfilmmakers um receive attention

(02:08:18):
yeah and so that is our rundownof the nominees for the 2025
Oscars.
You know, if I had to say areally quick rundown of who we
think at this moment could wintheir categories, we'll make
more episodes as we lead up tothe Oscars and leading up to our

(02:08:40):
final predictions.
As of now, I would say let's doa quick rundown.
For best picture, I personallythink that it's between the
Brutalist and Conclave.
We're going to get into what'sgoing on with Emilia Perez in a
minute.
That certainly, I think, hasfallen off the radar, for I
think so at least.
So I would would say I wouldpeg the winner to be between the

(02:09:03):
budalist and conclave.

Joseph (02:09:04):
You um, I think that's okay.
I think it's somewhere betweenthere.
You know, I have my eye onanora.
I think an anora I think anorais in an excellent position to
steal this yes, uh, that's veryinteresting.

Jules (02:09:15):
I think that'd be really cool.

Joseph (02:09:16):
I love anora or a complete unknown, or yeah, and I
think I think those are the topfour.

Jules (02:09:20):
um, maybe wicked I?
I certainly think those are thetop four.
Maybe Wicked?
I certainly think those are thetop five.
I don't know if Wicked can doit.
I do like its editingnomination.
I don't like its director's nom.
I don't know We'll see PossiblyIn Best Director.
I think we have a reallegitimate shot at seeing Brady
Corbett win for the Brutalist.
I don't know what you think.

Joseph (02:09:44):
That's who I'm pegging right now.

Jules (02:09:45):
I think brady corbett makes a very compelling choice,
but I'm gonna I'm gonna say,watch out for sean baker, I
think you know, I think, onoramight check enough boxes here
interesting um for best actress,I certainly think it's between
to me more for the substance andfernanda torres, for I'm still
here yeah um, I think it's goingto come down to narrative
versus movie, I think and I'mgoing to say right now that I

(02:10:06):
think narrative is going to winI think it's going to come down
to the wire and I certainlydon't think that I'm still here
is going home empty-handed, soexactly what happens.
But I'll get into that in aminute.
Uh, best actor.
This is one of the moreinteresting categories it is.
it's interesting Because Ireally do feel that four of
these men have a legitimate shotat winning here, four, really I

(02:10:28):
do, because in a way, Iwouldn't be shocked to see
Coleman Domingo win for SingSing.
It's a back-to-back nomination.
He's not the film's onlynomination, he's playing a real
life figure, real life figure,um, and uh, you know, there's,
there's a social cause to themovie that I think might uh
compel people, motivate peopleto vote for him, um, and so

(02:10:51):
don't count him out.
Timothy chalamet uh forcomplete unknown.
Obviously, the iconic bob dylan, and that film is a favorite.
Ray fines finally, winning uhfor conclave um, that makes a
lot of sense.
But adrian brody right now hasthe strongest performance on the
list.
He would get his second oscar,um, it could certainly.

(02:11:13):
He could certainly not win, buthe could certainly certainly
win two not two wins for adrianability might be a lot.

Joseph (02:11:18):
Um, I think it's going to be a toss-up between the
three guys, the three locks thatwere always there.
It's going to be a toss-upbetween the three guys, the
three locks that were alwaysthere.
I'm going to give the edge toBob Dylan right now.
Bob Dylan winning this.

Jules (02:11:30):
Right, I'm giving the edge to Adrian Brody right now.
Supporting actress this is alsoa really weird category,
especially based on currentevents, which we'll get into.
I still think Zoe Zaldana isthe favorite, and I would peg
someone like Isabel Rossellinimaking a shocking surprise just
based on, you know, not havingthis being her first nomination,

(02:11:52):
her storied career as an actor.
But I really do feel ZoeZaldana is the favorite here
still.

Joseph (02:12:00):
Yeah, I think Zoe has this sewn up.

Jules (02:12:03):
Supporting actor I think is a very interesting category,
because I don't think Kieran is100% safe Right now.
I'm leaning towards EdwardNorton.

Joseph (02:12:10):
I'm still going to go with Kieran.
I'm going to go with Kieran,christopher Plummer and I don't
know first acting nominee to getin to win without a Best
Picture nomination in anexpanded slot.

Jules (02:12:21):
We win without a best picture nomination in an
expanded slot We'll see Adaptedscreenplay.
I'm pretty sure this isConclave's to lose Original
screenplay.
This is Onora's to loseCinematography.
I think this is the Brutalist'sto lose.

Joseph (02:12:36):
Yeah, I agree with that.
I mean, I'm tempted to buy EdLockman, but you know, if
everyone's voting, it's going tobe the Brutalist's Costume
design.

Jules (02:12:43):
I think it's Wicked's to lose oh that's sewn up.
Film editing might be a littlebit more interesting.
Yeah, film editing might beinteresting.
I could see Conclave winningand I could see Anora winning.

Joseph (02:12:58):
I don't know, maybe the brutalist is going to win here.
Now that it was finallynominated, of course, the Emilio
Perez editor has been nominateda couple of times now.
So has the Wicked editor.
I mean, do the musicals canceleach other out here?
Possibly, maybe, I don't knowthe Brutalist does not look bad
to me right now, but Conclave,I'll go with Conclave here.
I'm going to go go with I don'tknow.

Jules (02:13:26):
I think I'm gonna go with an aura for editing.
You know what?
No, I, you're right, I'm gonnago with conclave.
Conclave is gonna be that rightsort of faux thriller that
they're gonna like uh.
Makeup and hairstyling.
This is the substances to loseyeah production design.

Joseph (02:13:36):
This is wickets to lose um no, I mean, with everything
that's come out against thebrutalist, I don't think it can
win this category anymore.
Right, I think some people aregoing to try to vote with the
brutalist, but I I think you'reright.
I think nathan crowley picks upthe win here for wicked right,
I think, in best score.

Jules (02:13:54):
I actually do think that um emilia paris can still win
for score, agree.
So I would pick emilia parisfor best song.
I I would still pick AmeliaParis too.
Agree For El Mal yeah For bestsound.
This one's more interestingDune.

Joseph (02:14:13):
I don't know, I'm kind of getting into the idea that
Dune wins zero.

Jules (02:14:16):
Five nominations and zero wins.
I don't know.
I can see a winning sound.
I'm going to say no, being theonly win sound.

Joseph (02:14:23):
I'm going to say no.
I think the win is eitherWicked or Complete Unknown, and
right now I'm going to go withWicked.

Jules (02:14:32):
For best visual effects.

Joseph (02:14:34):
I think Wicked, I'm going to go with Dune.
This is the one category that.
I think Dune can win Okay.

Jules (02:14:41):
All right Animated feature.
I say Flow, even though theWild Robot overperformed.

Joseph (02:14:46):
I agree.
I think this is Flows.

Jules (02:14:48):
Documentary feature no Other Land.
I think that's no Other Landsto Lose, yeah.

Joseph (02:14:54):
Yeah, I can see that.

Jules (02:14:56):
International film Okay, I'm going to say that I'm Still
here.
Wins international film.

Joseph (02:15:05):
I understand how the momentum is there right now?
No, because.

Jules (02:15:06):
I agree with you that I'm Still here, should win
something, but I disagree withyou in that it's not actress,
it's foreign film.

Joseph (02:15:14):
And I understand that perspective, and I certainly do
not think, nor have I everthought, that Emilia Perez was
going to be able to win thiscategory, although maybe, with
recent events, maybe it's a goodcompensation prize.
I don't know.
I'm actually thinking thatwe're going to see a surprise
here and that the winner forForeign Film is going to be Seed
of the Sacred Fig Over I'mStill here and I'm Still here is

(02:15:34):
going to win another award.

Jules (02:15:37):
That's what I think, and then the shorts are kind of
tough to call, but right now, ohreally tough.
So right now, I'm going to sayat this particular moment.
It's going to change as we getcloser to the date I'm going to
say In the Shadow of the Cypress.

Joseph (02:15:51):
I agree, ready animated short.

Jules (02:15:52):
I agree with that.
Actually Documentary short.
I'm going to say Incident.

Joseph (02:15:57):
I don't know.
I actually think it's going toend up being death by numbers.

Jules (02:16:03):
Could be, and then live action short.
I'm going to go with the manwho could not remain silent.

Joseph (02:16:07):
I agree, the man who could not remain silent.

Jules (02:16:09):
Okay perfect, and so that's our rundown of the
nominations, Well before wefinish.

Joseph (02:16:14):
I do have a question for you, and I think it should be a
tradition.
I want you now to nominate thefive nominations from the
Academy that you think are thebest it could be the most
surprising the ones you werehappiest to see.
Whatever reason, just give meyour five nominees for the best
nominations you saw that morning.

Jules (02:16:36):
Five, yes, okay, so okay, for different reasons.
Yeah, sure, okay, okay.
So I'm gonna say okay, well,I'm gonna say the nickel boys
for best picture.
Okay.
I'm going to say possibly thesubstance for best picture only

(02:16:56):
because I like a genre film,body horror film, finally
cracking the best picture list,and I like mo finally cracking
the best picture list, and Ilike Mubi finally cracking the
best picture list Excellent.
Even if I'm not, you know, 100%sold on the substance as a whole
.
Great choice.
I really love the nomination,let's see.
I have to say I'm very happythat Sebastian Stan got

(02:17:19):
nominated for the Apprentice.
That'd be another inclusion ofmine.
That's three, I'm going to sayMemoir of a Snail being able to
be included in the best animatedfeature category.
I was worried about it.
I'm really glad that thatdidn't happen.
The Snub I'm very happy aboutthat.
And then the last spot,probably, I'll say let's see.

(02:17:41):
Okay, let's say costume designLinda Muir finally being able to
break in and get nominated forher beautiful work in Nosferatu.

Joseph (02:17:51):
Yeah, and she's done.
I think she's done all hisfilms.

Jules (02:17:53):
Yes, all Robert Eggers films, so it's really nice to
see her getting in here finally.

Joseph (02:17:57):
Okay, and my nominees for the five best nominations
the Academy made this morning orthat morning were Nickel Boys
for Best Picture I'm Still herefor Best Picture.
Coralie Fargeat for BestDirector I love the inclusion of
a different man in makeup whichwas one of my favorite films of

(02:18:20):
the year.
And I'm going to say Latvia forForeign Language Film.
Right, I wasn't sure Flo woulddouble up in nominations.
It's great to see Latvianominated for Foreign Language
Film Right Perfect, and so letme reverse that now and now
nominate, please, the fivenominations from the Academy

(02:18:44):
that were the most shockingsnubs or surprises.
So these were not nominated bythe Academy, they were snubbed
by the Academy.

Jules (02:18:54):
But shocking snubs or most disappointing snubs,
Whichever which are open tointerpretation.

Joseph (02:18:59):
Just give me the five snubs that you think were most
shocking, most surprising, morefrustrating, most upsetting.
Give me your five.

Jules (02:19:09):
Okay, so my five most frustrating snubs, the ones that
caused disappointment,frustration, heartache.
Number one, undoubtedly numberone, undoubtedly number one,
number one, number one is thesnub of marianne jeff beptis for
best actress.
I think that was aheartbreaking snub, um, really

(02:19:31):
frustrating, very saddened bythat.
My number two is going to be nospotlight, no mention year
round for michelle austin inhard truths.
So I'm very frustrated that shecould never manage to get a
spotlight and certainly that shecould not get nominated here
for really superb work in HardTruths.
That's my number two, stayingalong the lines and supporting

(02:19:54):
actress.
I want to say that I'm prettyfrustrated, similarly with
Michelle Austin, that Al Fanningdidn't get her flowers for A
Complete Unknown.
Again, I think she's lovelythere and she was snubbed almost
everywhere and it would havebeen nice to have seen her been
nominated.
So that's a sad snub.
Then I'm going to say the snubfor Challengers, point blank.

(02:20:16):
I would have loved forChallengers to land somewhere.
Score, editing picture to landsomewhere, score, uh, editing
picture somewhere.
It's one of the best films of2023, 2024, excuse me, um, one
of my favorite films and itsucks to just have it be
completely omitted.
Um, and then my, before I go tomy last spot.

(02:20:40):
My honorable mention is going tobe um, the snub of a a swim
lesson.
I was really touched by thatshort film.
I would have loved to have seenit been included.
You know it really was a, avery powerful, quietly powerful
short.
Um sucks that it wasn'tincluded.
My number five is the completesnub of of all we imagine is

(02:21:00):
like one of the best films ofthe year.
Uh, one of the top top films ofthe year.
Um certainly had its handicapand not being submitted for
foreign film, but it sucks thatit couldn't land anywhere in
screenplay or picture.
It was more than deserving andit's sad to see it be completely
omitted okay, I think I have alot of those two.

Joseph (02:21:21):
I'm gonna.
I want to be a little bitdifferent, to give more options
to listeners, so I'm going to goahead and borrow number one.
I will call it the shutout ofhard truths is just really
painful yeah one of the bestfilms from last year and one of
the absolute best performancesfrom last year.
That's marion jean-baptiste.
But michelle austin is solovely in that movie as well, so

(02:21:45):
glad that at least mariajean-baptiste is a bafta nominee
.
But certainly that ranks veryhigh for me.
And then I'm also gonna stealum.
All we imagine is light beingcompletely shut out.
Um, again, not picked by itscountry, but this is why that
category is sort of a problem,right.
Because, when your country isnot going to elect that film or

(02:22:10):
a certain film to represent it.
It's going to be on the outunless we have a collective
effort to sort of put it intoanother category.
It just didn't materialize thisyear.
It a a shame.
Beautiful film.
Yeah, then I'll go ahead andmention really just anyone that
was involved in crafting andmolding nickel boys.

(02:22:32):
It was nominated for bestpicture, but so many times these
really sort of awe-inspiringworks can somehow muster enough
enthusiasm to be nominated forbest picture and failed to get
nominated in other categories.
So joe moufre cinematography,the film editing of nickel boys,
romell ross's job, directingthat film, such a powerful film,

(02:22:55):
it's a shame that none of thosewere nominated the performances
the performances are also quitebeautiful and an ingenue alice,
of course, amazing, as always.
So I I'm going to shout outNickel Boys as a movie that
should have been nominated more.
I mean, thank God it wasnominated for at least two I
thought of one and then maybenone really but really should be
nominated more, and this isagain something that the Academy

(02:23:16):
should address.
I'm going to also go ahead andmention something weird, because
so many amazing, amazing,beautiful performances and best
actresses here, but somethingabout nicole kidman's turn in
that movie keeps coming back tome in the sense that you know,
part of this game which is kindof unforgiving is that nicole
kidman does not get nominatedthis year because she was

(02:23:36):
nominated for being thericardo's and because it that
ticked all the right boxes forthe Academy.
Probably the more challengingfilm, the more rewarding film
and possibly the morechallenging performance is a
victim of that and that's anunfortunate element of this
whole Academy game and again, Ifeel like it's something the
Academy should address.
I mean Cynthia Erivo wasnominated so consecutively.

(02:23:57):
I feel like if we're going todo that, then we can also
nominate Nicole Kidman soconsecutively, especially when
the work is that powerful.
Yeah, I agree, so I'm going toreally pick on that one and
again.
I think you can apply that toso many other acting contenders
this year.
You can say the same thingabout Elle Fanning, daniel Craig
.
You know Daniel Craig should benominated.
By this point.
It's a little bit absurd thathe hasn't been nominated, and I

(02:24:25):
think my last mention is it's I.
You know it's gonna go to thewriters branch and the writer
voters.
This is the second year in arow where Netflix is getting in
for a screenplay.
That, I think, is justridiculous.
I mean, they got nominated lastyear in original screenplay for
Maestro.
I don't understand how, as awriter, that is the screenplay
that you elect again.
This is the branch that, in2011, went out of their way to
nominate a separation right, soI can't really fathom what is

(02:24:49):
really motivating them tonominate these screenplays from
netflix that are just subpar.
and so emilia perez again not anatrocious screenplay, and I get
that there's ambition, butthere's just so much pitfalls in
terms of the actual scriptwriting that it doesn't need to
be there, and there are so manyother titles that could have

(02:25:10):
been stronger options.
And so I'm going to go aheadand pick on the writers a little
bit and sort of say that youknow from, at least from my
point of view, from my vantagepoint they they certainly stand
to do a lot better.

Jules (02:25:20):
Right, that's.
Those are really goodselections.
I agree with many of those.
All of them, um all righty.

Joseph (02:25:27):
That's our rundown of the 2025 oscar nominations, our
post-mortem and so we're phasingout of our chess game, which is
oscar nominations.
The more entertaining game, Ithink, the more fun game the
more involving game, and I thinkthe more fun game, the more
involving game, and we're sortof phasing into this new
checkers game which is justdetermining the winner, mostly

(02:25:47):
out of five individuals or fivefilms up in one category, and so
we'll be covering that for thefollowing month in the lead up
to the eventual Oscar night,which I think is beginning of
March.

Jules (02:26:00):
Yeah, march 2nd, all right.
Well, this has been AcademyAnonymous.
I'm Jules and I'm Joseph, andit's been a pleasure.
The music on this episodeentitled Cool Cats was
graciously provided by KevinMacLeod compotechcom, licensed

(02:26:21):
under Creative Commons byAttribution 3.0.
Http//creativecommonsorg.
Licenses by 3.0.

Joseph (02:26:41):
Disclaimer the Academy Anonymous podcast is in no way
affiliated or endorsed by theAcademy of Motion Picture Arts
and Sciences.

All Episodes

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

Stuff You Should Know

Dateline NBC

The Breakfast Club

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Oscar Season 2024-2025; Oscar Nominations Postmortem

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

.css-r6mb8g{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:1;overflow:hidden;}Stuff You Should Know

Dateline NBC

The Breakfast Club

All Episodes

Oscar Season 2024-2025; Oscar Nominations Postmortem

Stuff You Should Know