Oscar Season 2025-2026: Golden Globe Predictions for ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER, HAMNET, MARTY SUPREME, SINNERS, FRANKENSTEIN, WICKED FOR GOOD, AVATAR FIRE AND ASH, JAY KELLY, THE SECRET AGENT, NO OTHER CHOICE, and more!!

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_02 (00:14):
Hey everyone, and welcome to a new episode of the
Academy Anonymous podcast, wherewe're keeping track of all the
news on the Oscar race, ourfirst podcast for December.
And December, of course, isgoing to be a very busy month in
terms of um updates to campaignsand uh you know film

(00:36):
trajectories on their way tohopefully getting an Oscar
nomination next year.
Um, as always, I'm your host,Joseph.

SPEAKER_00 (00:42):
And I'm Jules.
And before we start, just areminder to uh please follow us
on Twitter at Academy Anon andvisit our website,
framesandflicker.com.
Both of those are listed on thecover art for reference.
And um we have also beenupdating our predictions.
We have brand new uh updates onour predictions on our website.

(01:03):
Um, and throughout December,we're gonna be updating it more
thoroughly.
We'll also be adding the awardsthat these films are winning.
And hopefully in the future,we'll have like a database of
all the films that are winningthese uh critic awards because
we're as you said, it's atsunami of critical awards that
we're gonna get all throughDecember and most of January,
along with the major precursors.

(01:24):
So all of that will also beupdated on our website very
soon.

SPEAKER_02 (01:27):
Right.
Um, so it's been a very busyclosing week to November,
opening week of December.
We have a lot to talk about.
Um, where do you want to start?
I mean, obviously, I think thebulk of this episode is going to
be about predicting the GoldenGlobes, which we still think is
a very significant thing on theway to hopefully getting an
Oscar nomination.

(01:48):
Yeah.
So we'll do that for themajority of the show, but maybe
we should do a quick recap onsome recent events.
Where would you like to start?

SPEAKER_00 (01:54):
Well, first we have the, I believe on Monday we had
the Gotham Awards, and so we uhpredicted them on our website
and also on our Twitter.
Um, and I think the winners arevery interesting.
And something that I like aboutthe Gotham Awards in particular,
actually, I like a lot ofthings, even though as we said
in our last episode, they'regetting a lot of flack for sort

(02:14):
of you know, kind of moving awayfrom highlighting and
platforming independent filmsspecifically.

SPEAKER_02 (02:20):
Their nominees did, at least.

SPEAKER_00 (02:21):
Exactly.
Um, but I love that critics andI love that critics tend to pick
the nominees in jury pools, andthen I love that industry
representatives pick thewinners.
That's right.
What I find really interestingabout the Gotham winners is that
we get a nice tiny sample ofwhat people in the actual film

(02:41):
industry um think about some ofthese more risque movies.
And so if you have a film thatwas heavily nominated by the
critic pool, that ends up comingout of this ceremony, you know,
uh very, you know, with withwith little to to speak of in
terms of wins, then I think thatstarts to indicate that it's not

(03:05):
a film that maybe the industryat large, or at least you start
to ponder that maybe it's not afilm that the industry industry
at large is going to be asreceptive to.
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (03:14):
It starts to sort of illustrate the critic industry
divide, right?

SPEAKER_00 (03:18):
And I think that specif specifically happened
with one very particular filmthat I think is fighting for its
life to squeeze into uh one ofthe above-the-line categories,
and that's if I had legs, I'dkick you.
Had no legs on Monday night, hadno legs to make it to a win,
which was the second mostnominated film of that ceremony
and came out with DeadlySquatch, and the most nomin I

(03:39):
will say also not just that, butit was heavily the most
nominated independent film ofthe night.

SPEAKER_02 (03:47):
Because one battle after another broke records for
nominations, but it was also amajor Warner Brothers film,
major studio film fromHollywood, made for hundreds of
millions of dollars.
And and and if I had legs thatkick you is not that.
Had they banned one battle afteranother like they have done
other years, and certainly if Ihad legs would have been the
most nominated film of thenight, right?

SPEAKER_00 (04:06):
Exactly.
And so I found it quiteinteresting or quite telling
possibly that if you've seen thefilm, and I quite like the film,
we saw the film at Sundance.

SPEAKER_02 (04:16):
Not many that not many film, not many people saw
the film in theaters.
I know.

SPEAKER_00 (04:20):
Exactly.
Um, if if you've seen the film,I think you can really
understand that it's not thekind of thing the academy tends
to go for.
You know, um, it has a lot ofyou know artistic flourishes and
uh a perspective that I thinkthey're not as comfortable
nominating.
It's got gerbil issues, also.

SPEAKER_02 (04:40):
There are like gerbil issues with this film.

SPEAKER_00 (04:43):
There's a moment there in the movie that there's
something like that.
You know, it has a lot of saftysort of energy, um, in a way
that it's very chaotic, but it'salso, you know, very
uncompromising in itsperspective and its uh uh
technique and how it you knowframes Rose Byrne's character,
almost a film completely made ofclose-ups in a way.
Um and it's a very effectivefilm.

(05:04):
It really puts you into thepsyche of this woman, but it's
gonna be a film that is notgoing to thrill audiences.
And I think we saw that by itsvery poor box office
performance.
Right.
And I think we saw that at theGotham's, where you know, in
these my you know, miniaturejury pools of industry
representatives, they didn'trespond to it, not enough to
give it a win at all.

SPEAKER_02 (05:25):
So no wins at all for If I Had Legs I'd kick you,
which we think is an amazingfilm, which we I think I would
call it so far top three mostuncompromising films I've seen
this year.
Yeah.
Um, which is again, that's acompliment.
Um, but it's vying for oneaward, strictly just one award,
which is best actress, and forit to walk away with nothing hot

(05:47):
on Gotham Night did not lookvery good.

SPEAKER_00 (05:51):
Right.
And so um a little bit more onthat because Rose Byrne has been
surfacing in this last week, andlike I said, that's a nominee
and a movie that's fighting forthis one nomination.
Will it happen?
Will it not?
It's very dicey.
Um, but certainly I also foundinteresting, I just find it
interesting in general, but alsospecifically these pools getting

(06:11):
together and seeing these moviesand the not these nominees and
seeing what of those nomineesimpacted the most.
I got the impression that thejury pools really went with what
spoke to them the most, whattouched them the most.
Um, so for example, uh my fathershadowed it incredibly well.
It won the best lead performanceas well as breakthrough

(06:33):
director.
And I even started to questionwhy this film wasn't nominated
uh for best film, because itsounds like it might have you
mean at the gotham.

SPEAKER_02 (06:41):
Well, at the Gotham's, they actually don't
allow international films tocompete.
Oh, yeah.
They have to have some sort ofbasis in terms of um American
production or American financingbehind it.
So I'm pretty sure that makessense.

SPEAKER_00 (06:52):
Well, that makes sense, but had it been, I think
it would have been, I would havespoken to that jury pool as well
for best film.
Um, so that that film didterrific and it hasn't even come
out here yet.
Um, we missed it at Cannes.
Yeah, it did well though.
It did really well, it didterrific as from Mubi as well,
right?
And Suleiman's story won BestBreakthrough Performer.
We didn't get a chance to seethat, but I've heard great

(07:13):
things.
That sort of sort of sort of hasbeen in the ether for a while
because I think it went to lastyear's case.

SPEAKER_02 (07:18):
Yes, yes, it did.
And I think Janice picked it up,but I think that was an overall
theme of the night, which isGotham nominations really split
hairs in terms of is this apositive move or a negative
move?
Um, what kind of organizationare they going to evolve into in
the future?
Um, their wins paint a verydifferent picture.
To me, the wins, whether it'sthe jury deciding, you know, a

(07:39):
win for a film that was lesscontroversial than if I had like
said kick you, but also in thejury supporting films like
Solomon's Story and My Father'sShadow, it's very clear that
they want to keep celebratingfilms that let's be honest, I'm
not sure how much tractioneither of those films are going
to get from here on out.
But they sound like great films,and I can't wait to see them.

SPEAKER_00 (08:00):
Right.
And I think that's aninteresting point because for
me, I felt like I don't know ifit was, you know, done
consciously or not, but it feltlike the jury pools selecting
the winners were very muchtrying to, as you were
insinuating, trying to pick, youknow, independent films, um, and

(08:21):
and and platform those smallerfilms that not enough people
have seen, not enough peopleknow about, um, as opposed to
going for, you know, the bigger,uh, the bigger movies in these
lists.
So it was very interesting tosee one battle lose award after
award after award.
Yeah.
You know, and I think it goes tothat idea that I think these
juries were interested inspotlighting independent films,

(08:44):
small films, low budget films,uh, and give those films a
platform.
Right.
Um, and saving the one battlewin for the end, right?
Where I won best film.
Uh where I finally won an award.
Right.
Right.
Exactly.
PTA finally.
So it just felt like they wereokay giving the big award to one
battle, but everything else feltlike let's spotlight these
smaller films.
Right.
Um, and I don't know if that wasan act of resistance because of

(09:07):
the sort of talk that's been inthe ether because of Gotham and
where it's headed.

SPEAKER_02 (09:11):
And maybe again, those jury members saying, Am I
really gonna give it to a WarnerBrothers film?
Am I really gonna give it to afilm that was uh, you know, uh
uh a nine-figure film?
Am I really gonna do that?

SPEAKER_00 (09:20):
So I don't know if it was intentional or not, but
that's how it read to me.
Right.
And the ceremony itself had avery weird, uh, it was a very
weird experience watching itbecause, on the one hand, you're
seeing these films likeSolomon's Story and Um It Was
Just an Accident, and um MyFather's Shadow doing really
well, and then having thesetributes for these questionable

(09:43):
films that are you know of ahigher budget and of a higher
sort of platform, uh higherrelease strategy basically.
Higher visibility.
Higher visibility.
So you had After the Hunt, whichhas done terrible with critics,
and it's still getting an awardhere.
Yeah, you had um Deliver Me FromNowhere, which again did very
mediocre with critics and it'sgetting an award here.

(10:04):
Songs and Blue is getting anaward here.
That whole aspect was justawkward.
So it's awkward as hell, and Ican't help but read.
I mean, I can't help but readthat those tributes are bought
and brought to you by Songs andBlue coming out in the theaters
as a summer.
Right, they're bought by thesebigger studios kind of wanting
uh a piece of the pie andwanting a piece of the
spotlight, and Gotham as a as aas a as a uh organization giving

(10:30):
into that, and that sucks.
Right.
You know, that left a weirdtaste in I think most people's
mouths, and also it was just aweird experience.

SPEAKER_02 (10:37):
Yes, I I completely agree with you.
Um, I think that was that wasalways there.
I mean, to just to just add onto that just a little bit, I
will say that something that Ithought was important were just
seeing what it was like whenthese tribute awards were on the
stage.
And so, for example, I thoughtTessa Thompson gave a great
speech, and I think HETA iscertainly in the hunt, and I

(10:59):
think it's speeches like thatfrom Tessa Thompson that are
going to maybe boost the profileof HETA, you know, deeper into
award season.
Um, I thought Adam Sandler stolethe show.
And I think if anyone waswatching or if anyone in the
industry was in the room,they're just gonna want Adam
Sandler on stage as much aspossible.
Um, and again, I think that's agreat boost to his um campaign.
For example, I think LucaGuadagnino did not address the

(11:22):
elephant in the room and talkabout the costume designers.
Um, and so I'm not sure on topof everything if Luca Guaragnino
is gonna get much support fromthe costume designing guild
anytime soon.

SPEAKER_00 (11:33):
And for those who don't know, you know, we're
referencing that over the last,I think last week or the
weekend, he had some commentsabout the difference between
fashion designers and costumedesigners, and somehow the
fashion designers I thinkunderstand the art form of
costume design better thancostume designers do.
And a lot of very reputablecostume designers found issue
with that.

SPEAKER_02 (11:53):
We're outraged, including um Jenny Beaven um
from Mad Max, but certainly evencontenders from this year.
I mean, Kate Hawley, who did thecostumes on Frankenstein
Frankenstein was um reallyupset.
Um, and so I mean, I thinkthat's a whole other issue
that's gonna come back to bitehim in the future.
But I mean, jumping off that, Ithink Guillermo de Toro got on

(12:14):
stage and it was very clear, youknow, his film is a passion
project, but it's very much alsoan illustration of fuck AI and
films made by humans for humans,and I think that's an excellent
um, you know, stance from whichto campaign on right now.
Right.
Um, I also felt there was a lotof love for Jacob Balorty in the
package from Netflix, so it'svery clear that that's a

(12:35):
priority for them, even thoughthey're gonna have a Jacob
Ballorty Adam Sandler problem atsome point.

SPEAKER_01 (12:39):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (12:40):
Um, you know, so I did think that some of those
tributes were interesting.
I thought Noah Bob might give agreat speech.
Um, I'll say that as well.
Um he I think Jay Kelly mayappeal uh very much so to the
industry.
Um, so there's that, and then Ithink one other thing that I
would like to talk about is justit was a great night for Jafar

(13:00):
Panahi.
Oh yes, right?
And so he won three awards forthe film, right?
And that's perfect, that's asweep.
He was up for three, he won thethree.
Yeah, but what I think is reallyimportant here is that as you
said, industry juries.
So three different industryjuries made up of maybe five to
six people each, so maybe that'sanywhere from 15 to 18 people.

(13:22):
They always favored his film,they always favored his uh style
of filmmaking, and they alwaysfavored the narrative of Jafar
Panahi getting an award, right?
I think there was something thatI read online about how Jafar
Panahi is is gonna go back toIran and and um possibly go to
prison and and possibly, youknow, um try to tackle the the

(13:43):
issues that are are aresurrounding him from his home
country like head on.
And that's just I think everyonein the industry is aware of
that.
I think voters are aware ofthat, and I think that's going
to want to motivate them to getas many people as possible to
watch the film because he's suchan important artist and because
it's such an important subjectmatter that touches not just

(14:03):
Iran but just the entire globeright now.
And so that that became veryclear to me is that it's not
just a sweep, but it's thesejuries are watching that film
and it's resonating with them nomatter what country they're
from, and that they all want tochampion that filmmaker because
of what he stands for and whathe's been through, right, and
what he means for the industryand for the art form.

SPEAKER_00 (14:24):
Right, but I think it can also be an indication
that his film is that liked andhis film is that is resonating
to that degree.
Certainly.
That's that's that's exactlywhat I'm saying.
After that sweep, I think peoplestarted thinking, oh, well,
maybe we should put JafarPanahi, you know, higher in our
best director radar.
But the truth is, you know, fromthe very beginning, if you've
been following us, we've beenvery high on Jafar Panahi's

(14:46):
narrative and his story is so uhimportant that he was always
going to be a huge contender inthis awards race as soon as he
won the Palme d'Or.
And I would say that some anight like the Gotham really
kind of portrayed thepossibility that if there's
anybody who could possibly, andI don't think this is uh a

(15:08):
realistic thing, but if there'sanybody who could possibly steal
a best director Oscar from PaulThomas Anderson, it would be
Jeff Harpinahi.
Yeah, you know, or surprise uhscreenplay win, it would be Jeff
Harpinahi.
Yeah.
So, you know, that's that's anindication from these awards.

SPEAKER_02 (15:23):
And I think some people have just just to sort of
linger on this, if it was justan accident topic, just a beat
longer.
Some people have talked about itwas just an accident of being
well liked enough to factor intointo film editing.
Yeah, and I think there's apossibility there.
Um I've seen the film, youhaven't seen it yet, and I'm I'm
sure you'll I'm sure you'llrespond to it.
Yeah, that's a very powerfulfilm.

(15:45):
I know that editing did notscream out to me.
I think its positioning in therest of the race could you know
force that issue.
But no one really talks about anarea where we think the film is
really rich, right?
Um, no one really talks aboutit.
Maybe they'll talk about it now,but the idea is you and I have
always thought this was a greatfilm to contend for best
casting.

(16:06):
Yes.
That's where we think you canget an extra nomination here
because the cast is magnificent,Jafar Panahi is was part of the
process of finding those actors.
Um, and so don't be surprised ifthere is a below the line
category where it was just anaccident can factor into it
would be casting, you know.
You heard it here first.
We think that this is a asleeper in the in that category.

SPEAKER_00 (16:28):
100%.
I completely agree.
And um, I, you know, again, JeffHarpanahi won best original
screenplay.
I loved seeing that Pillion wonthe best adapted screenplay.
I'm very confused by what'shappening with that movie.
I'm guessing that A24 is pushingthem for awards campaign, but
the release won't be tillValentine's Day next year.
I absolutely love the moviecoming out of Cannes.

(16:49):
Can't wait to see it again.
And it's it reinforces to me,um, as someone who's seen it,
that it's just such a crowdpleaser, right?
Um and and and such a uh uh acrowd pleasing film that is just
irresistible to a certaindegree, that it was able to beat
out so many uh contenders here,like no other choice and one

(17:10):
battle and train dreams.
Um in a juried pool, yeah.
Right.
And that somehow I think that ifthe campaign strategy was
clearer and this felt like ahorse that they were, you know,
focusing more on, push pushingwith more you know
concentration, uh they wouldhave a significant shot at
getting into that screenplaycategory and possibly a few

(17:31):
other categories.
But I guess they have too manyballs that they're juggling, and
Marty Supreme is such a prioritythat I guess it's falling by the
wayside.
But it sort of feels, you know,um like a missed opportunity.
Exactly.

SPEAKER_02 (17:45):
Yeah, I I would say that as well.
As far as I know, and I've donesome digging around online.
Um, I've asked a few people onTwitter and they've very
gracious graciously responded,and and they've told us um that
the plan from A24 is supposedlyto campaign the film.
Um, and so watch out for it tomaybe factor into some of these
bigger awards.
Certainly BAFTA, you and Italked about a possibility of a

(18:05):
globe nod, not out of the notout of the realm of possibility,
but certainly it feels like A-24is not focusing on the campaign,
and it just feels like they A-24has rich films.
I think it's just becomeabundantly clear that they're
not allowing themselves to getdistracted from the mission.

(18:26):
And the mission is Marty for asmany nominations as possible,
for as many wins as possible,for possibly the big win, and
certainly for the big win forTimothy Chalamet.

SPEAKER_01 (18:36):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (18:36):
And so they almost cannot allow themselves to push
any other direct any othercontender, even if it's
marginally, because they cannottake their eyes off of making
Marty an Oscar hit, a box officehit, a critical hit.
Right.
You know what I mean?

SPEAKER_00 (18:50):
Right.
And um, as we said, you know, uhPaul Thomas Anderson was able to
win that that final big awardthat again was also jury, and so
I guess the jury, the jury poolwas also very unanimous in
thinking that that was the bestof the group, um, uh along with
what seems it's gonna be mostpeople.
Yeah.
Um uh but actually before wemove on to the next thing, I do

(19:11):
want to bring up one reallyinteresting thing was that one
of the surprises that one of thesurprise wins that I was very
impacted by because it it it itindicated a few things for me,
was the win by Woon Mi Mosakufor the supporting performance
for Sinners.
Sinners was only nominated forsupporting performance.
She won it.
Um, and there was a lot ofcompetition here.

(19:33):
What I find most interestingabout Woon Mi winning is that
you would think, number one,that maybe someone from One
Battle would win this.
Benicio Lotoro has been on a ripthis last few days, possibly
him, and the person that wethought was going to win, which
was Tayana Taylor, for her verymemorable first, you know, her
very memorable uh part in OneBattle, uh, which takes place,

(19:56):
yes, mostly at the beginning ofthe film, but she comes back a
little bit at the end as well.

SPEAKER_02 (20:00):
She's also a previous nominee for a thousand
and one.

SPEAKER_00 (20:02):
Right, exactly.
However, they went with Woon Me.
And I think that's aninteresting a very interesting
choice, again, from uh aselected jury pool, because I
think it shows that if Tayanawas in the running to possibly
win this award, that there wereenough people in that jury who
were maybe a little bit put offby the sort of complicated

(20:24):
character that Tayana Taylorplays in one battle after
another.
Right.
Um and I it just the thoughtcame to me that maybe she was
considered, but instead theychose to give the award to
another black actor, an emergingartist, um, who was possibly

(20:44):
playing a character that wasmore resonant, more resonant for
them and uh resonated moredeeply for them, and certainly
that was more sympathetic uh forthem.
And I think that's a uh a bigasset that uh uh an actor like
Wumi Musako has, a contenderlike Wumi Musako has in this
race.

SPEAKER_02 (21:03):
Yeah, I think you're 100% right, and I think we may
end up seeing that play out, youknow, throughout the rest of the
Oscar race.
Um and they're kind of funnybecause they kind of complement
each other.
And so like if Tayana shows upin the beginning and she's
controversial and problematic,and uh, you know, there's things
you like about her, but there'salso a lot of um instances where

(21:27):
you understand that thecharacter's probably
transgressing something, and soit's difficult for you to
immediately sympathize with it.
It's very complicated.
It's a complicated character,very complicatedly drawn.
Um, there's also the sexualelement to it that I'm sure is
gonna turn off some voters,yeah.
You know, the way that shesexualized, even if it becomes
sort of a weapon of her.
Yeah, it's a weapon she'sweaponizing that she's
weaponized that, but it's notnecessarily gonna be the thing

(21:49):
that all voters respond to.
But then you have Woo Me, right?
Who who was one of my favoritesin the film, but also she comes
back at the end of the film andhas what I think is possibly the
most emotionally rewardingmoment in that in the film and
that last scene.
And if you when you see thefilm, you'll know what scene I'm
talking about.
Um, and she's also this likethis character who's just you

(22:12):
know morally and spirituallygood, right?
And also like forthright, yeah,and you know, um can sort of
read a situation almost quickerthan everyone else around her.
Yeah, and so like it's it's avery empowering character.
Um and so I think that that maybe a dynamic that comes into
play.
What I think is what I think isalso great is that I don't think

(22:33):
that they eliminate each other.
So I think that in the list ofthe Oscar five, there's room for
both.
But I wouldn't be surprised ifthere are gonna be some some
people who who you know wouldrather vote for Tiana because of
the complexities of thecharacter and and what she's
asked to do, which is a verydemanding thing.
She's kind of the lead for thefirst 20 minutes, yeah, versus
Wound Me, right?
Who has a great entrance, kindof disappears in the middle, but

(22:56):
comes back in the end in themost emotional part, right?
Um, so I think they're all gonnalike I I think they compliment
each other well, but I thinkwe're gonna see this sort of
quiet duel between what does aviewer prefer between those two
dynamics.

SPEAKER_00 (23:10):
Right.
And I I use you use the wordcompliment, I would say in a way
that almost antithetical, thatif you had issues with Taonica
Taylor's character in one battleand and how complexly she's
drawn in that film, um, you'regoing to possibly uh like a lot
more the woon mi Mosakuperformance in Cinners, which in

(23:31):
a way is sort of the opposite.
Um uh or vice versa.
If you're if the wooni musakuperformance is something that
you're a little less drawn toand you want a little bit more
complexity in your character,um, you're gonna be more drawn
to the Taylor Taylorperformance.

SPEAKER_02 (23:46):
I like that.
Like Taylorna Taylor is theedgier of the performances, and
WooMy is like the pure light.
She's like the light in hermovie.
Yeah, absolutely.
So I think that's gonna be afascinating dynamic to observe
all year long.
Yeah.
But it was a great, great winfor Wumi.
Oh, I was so happy.
Um, I thought it was a greatwin.
And and you had predictedsomething, I think, a day after
that didn't come true, but sortof maybe started circling around

(24:06):
that idea that I think Wooy'sgonna have fans for her
performance.
Right.
Right, right.
Um, so is there anything elseleft to talk about in terms of
uh Gotham?

SPEAKER_00 (24:14):
Gotham?
No, I think we're good withGotham.

SPEAKER_02 (24:16):
So how do I how about we jump to instead of
going to what happened the dayright after in New York, why
don't we jump to what has justhappened, which is we got
nominees for the independentspirit awards because they're
sort of sister organizations,right?
The Gotham Film Awardsrecognizing independent films or
independently minded films, andthen you have the independent uh
film awards, which haseligibility criteria, and so

(24:38):
certainly one battle is notgoing to factor in here.
But I also want to mention, youknow, um there are certain
independent films that wereborderline, and so we we had
written an article, and you cancheck that out at
framesflicker.com.
But you know, in the article, wehad sort of alluded to the idea
that Hamnet might have troublequalifying here because it may
be a little bit over the budgetthreshold.

(25:00):
I think that might have alsobeen a factor for something like
Kiss of the Spider Woman.
Yeah, right.
I thought Tona 2 or JenniferLopez would make it in or Drago
Luna, but again, the budget isteetering around the 30 range,
might be a little bit more, andthat might have been
disqualifying.
And so um, don't be surprised ifsome of these bigger films did
not qualify.
Obviously, A24, Marty Supreme,that budget is way too high to

(25:22):
qualify.

SPEAKER_00 (25:23):
Or the Smashing Machine.

SPEAKER_02 (25:24):
Smashing Machine is way too high, right?
Um, but some of these smallerindependent films, you know, got
their moment in the sun.
And so, who are the nominees umwho had a great day?

SPEAKER_00 (25:32):
Um, I think Peter Hojar's day had a great day.
Um, Ira Sachs is a brilliantfilmmaker.
We haven't seen this particularfilm.
We missed it at Sundance.
Uh, but uh a lot of people arefans of it.
It played that at the New YorkFilm Festival as well.
That did really well.
Sorry Baby did well as well.
Um being nominated in the bestfeature category as opposed to
the best for the best firstfeature, which is a big deal.

(25:53):
Train Dreams did fantastic.
Yeah, Train Dreams was and Ithink that you and I were on the
money a few episodes ago when wewere highlighting the nominees
for the Gotham's, and we weresaying that in this list there
should be the favorite for theindependent spirit award and the
quote unquote, you know, thehorse that the independent
community is going to bepushing.

SPEAKER_02 (26:14):
They're gonna rally around, right?

SPEAKER_00 (26:15):
And that the only film that kind of made sense
there was a film like TrainDreams, and lo and behold, here
come the independent spiritaward nominations, and it's does
incredibly well.
So I think that people arecatching on to Train Dreams
being that sort of independentfilm horse that the independent
community is going to push intoa best picture nomination.
Um, and it's kind of interestingbecause it kind of completes the

(26:38):
story that these filmmakers wereunable to finish last year when
they were trying to get anominated for Sing Sing.
When A24 screwed them, yeah.
They were trying to get an I forSing Sing and they did not get
nominated, even thoughtechnically they still got three
nominations, and a fourthnomination made a little bit
more sense than two nominationsfor Nickel Boys.

SPEAKER_01 (26:54):
Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 (26:55):
Um, and so that I think that has a very realistic
possibility of trans transpiringthat this uh second Netflix
film, apart from Frankenstein,makes it uh squeaks into Best
Picture uh with a handful ofnominations.

SPEAKER_02 (27:11):
Yeah, I think the ghosts of Quadar and Bentley
have unfinished business withthe Oscars, and I think Train
Dreams may be the film to finishthat up.
Um, so it was a great day forNetflix, Train Dreams.
I think so.
Train Dreams picture, director,actor for Joel Edgerton, which
was great to see,cinematography.
Um, I thought that was great.
I mean, I also mentioned uhanother highlight.

(27:32):
It was just a great day for JoelEdgerton because his other
movie, The Plague, which I hadan opportunity to see at Cannes,
and it's fantastic.
And it's a horror film comingout on Christmas.
It's a Christmas Christmasmiracle, Christmas gift.
If everyone wants to go check itout, The Plague was nominated
for Best Picture, and here yougo again.
Another first film that waselevated from the first feature
category into best film.

(27:53):
Um that's the plague, JoeEdgerton's kind of supporting
role in that.

SPEAKER_00 (27:56):
Um Roadside didn't get Kiss of the Spider Woman in,
possibly it got disqualified,but it still got their other
horse, Twinless, in, which gotnominated for best feature and
also got an eye for best actorfor Dylan O'Brien, who has a
great performance in it.
Um, so that was nice to see.

SPEAKER_02 (28:10):
I think the screenplay also.

SPEAKER_00 (28:12):
I I oh I'm not sure, but yeah.

SPEAKER_02 (28:14):
But it was it was great to see because a lot of
people were disappointed whenTwinless got completely shut out
at Gotham.
Right.
And so it was it's sometimes theorganizations are great because
they'll respond to each other.
Right.
And so I do think it'sreactionary.
You know, the idea that, well,if Twinless got completely
snubbed there, let's prioritizechampioning it because it's a
film we really liked.
Right.

SPEAKER_00 (28:32):
Um well, um, is there anything else?
I find that I found itinteresting that a movie that
did really well at the Gotham's,as you were saying, did really
poorly here, more or less, andthat was if I had legs at kick
you.

SPEAKER_02 (28:43):
That's exactly what I was gonna go to next.
Okay, so yeah, talk to us aboutthat.

SPEAKER_00 (28:47):
Well, I mean, it managed a uh director
nomination, I believe, and anacting nomination.
Is that it?
Is that all that got?

SPEAKER_02 (28:54):
I think that's about it.
And so you're going from four,which isn't very much, at Gotham
to two at the Independence BearAwards.
Four is a lot for Gotham.
But it is a lot for Gotham.
And it may not sound like awhole lot, it's just two
nominations down, but they'revery big nominations.

SPEAKER_00 (29:09):
And also, this this uh historically, you know, this
organization is very kind to A24Films.

SPEAKER_02 (29:15):
Yeah, and this year they basically decided I would
rather nominate sorry baby inthe feature category than if I
have like said kick you.

SPEAKER_00 (29:22):
And I think that's and I think that speaks a little
bit to what we were saying atthe Gotham's that when you're
putting this movie into a wideraudience or a selective audience
that's going to be deciding someof these nominations, it's just
not as uh as much of a slam dunkas some people think that it
was.

SPEAKER_02 (29:39):
I I mean, despite its own quality and its own
ambitions, I do think that we'reseeing like an extreme Achilles
heel because the film, as whatas beloved as it is by the
nominating committee ofGotham's, was just not good
enough to score a win.
And this is almost like viceversa.
At the Independent SpiritAwards, where a jury is doing

(30:00):
the nomination, is doing thenomin the nominations, right?
It was just not loved enough toget a nomination as as big as
best picture.
Right.
Um, and so I mean it I it italso didn't factor into
cinematography or editing.
We had done an articlepredicting some of the nominees,
and we had certainly listed itfor um for picture and for

(30:20):
actress.
Um, I I thought maybescreenplay, but we thought maybe
some of those tech work, butsome of the work from the
cinematographer, the editor weregetting in as well, because it's
top notch, also.
But I think we're seeing thestart of the issue of if I had
like Zed Kick Hugh, because thisis where it should be
dominating.
Yeah, you know what I mean?
This is not the places where itshould not be getting getting

(30:41):
snuffed from a best picturenomination or missing out a win
for Rose Byrne at the GothamFilm Awards.
Right.

SPEAKER_00 (30:46):
You know, uh Blue and Blue Sun Palace um also did
really well.
It got a first featurementioned.
I think I also got a screenplaymention, um, and I think even an
acting mention, I believe.
Um, and one of them days didpretty well as well.
Uh that was a big hit.
Yeah, Kiki Palmer.
Yeah, over the spring with KikiPalmer.
Kiki Palmer, I think, gets herfirst nomination here in this

(31:08):
group, I believe.
That's great.
Uh, we're big fans of KikiPalmer over here.

SPEAKER_02 (31:11):
Um Kirsten Dunst actually got her first nom for
Roofman.
Crazy as that sounds.

SPEAKER_00 (31:16):
But Roofman in general had a low showing,
except for I think that was it,Kirsten Dunst.

SPEAKER_02 (31:21):
Yeah, overall, I I thought it would do better.
Yeah, um, for example, like TheMastermind didn't do very well.
We love Katie Rackard, but shedidn't get in here.
Um did really good.

SPEAKER_00 (31:30):
Oh, Lurker did Lurker did uh pretty good.
And I after after at least snapnabbing a best picture
nomination at Gotham, I loveLurker, it's one of my favorite
films of the year.
And yeah, HETA, I we if youlooked at our nominations, our
predictions, uh, we werepredicting HETA to have a pretty
good day to get an eye forseveral things, um, and it only
managed two acting nominations.

SPEAKER_02 (31:52):
Yeah, I mean I mean it's still good, it's still
good, but I will say it'sdisappointing.
I think plan B has done betterhere.
Um, so I I think it's certainlyon the low end.
I'm glad it's still got them,but I think that if they're
gonna make a serious play for anOscar, I mean the Nickel Boys,
uh Nickel Boys was nominatedhere for Best Picture, yeah.

(32:14):
Um American fiction um alsonominated for Best Picture.
Um, so I do think it's lagging alittle bit behind.
Hopefully, maybe they can pickthat up a little bit with the
other precursors.
I mean, I do think it has um thequality to compete for other
categories like cinematographyand costumes and makeup and and
all those other categories.
So maybe that helps.
But I do think I was expecting aNia De Costa nomination for best

(32:37):
director, the best feature, thebest feature.
I even thought it might havegotten shortlisted or mentioned
for the Robert Alman Award.
We mentioned that in the articlebecause of the sort of the
brilliant casting of TessaThompson and Ina Haas and the
sort of gender reversal there.
Um, but that didn't happen.
I thought it was great to seeThe Long Walk pick up that
nomination and that we had thatas one of our um Dark Horses um
for possibly that nomination.

(32:58):
Um, but so yeah, it was adisappointing.

SPEAKER_00 (33:01):
Probably one of the films that had the worst
performance, um, which issurprising yet not very
surprising, is the testament ofAnn Lee.
Oh, that was terrible, whichonly got a best editing
nomination.
Which we had called, by the way,on our article.
But but it's I say nothing.
I say not surprising becausealso the Bouddha list did very
poorly here.
And again, that's a headscratcher because you know it's

(33:23):
one of the most uh it wasnotoriously spoken about for
being shot for only$10 million.
Um, everything that theyachieved at the boot in the
Buddha list, and it only got abest director mentioned last
year, but this year it owned uhMona Fastwald was only able to
get an editing nomination.
And if you see the film, again,we're big fans.
I absolutely adore that film.
Um it's it's so well done, topto bottom, that you would think

(33:47):
it would do well in a body likethis, certainly for Amanda Safe
to get an acting nominationmentioned, certainly for
cinematography, possibly forscreenplay.
Uh I mean, not screenplay, uhdirector, director and picture.
Um, and I think that also has alot to do with like it like if a
head like that kick you, onceyou're putting this film in
front of a bigger audience, Ithink they're going to be a

(34:10):
little bit more polarized aboutit.
You know, I think there arepeople who are going to watch
this movie and not really beable to get on its wavelength
and that that's gonna have asevere impact on its award uh
potential, it's potential fornominations.
You know, I know that we think alittle bit differently, but I
see that film right now, andeverything that I'm seeing is
indicating the same as a filmthat might just be a

(34:31):
one-nomination thing for AmandaSayfried at the Oscars.
You know, and everywhere thatyou're seeing, you know, it's
it's it's it's sort ofunderperforming.

SPEAKER_02 (34:38):
Yeah, I agree with you.

SPEAKER_00 (34:39):
But if you see the film, you understand why.

SPEAKER_02 (34:42):
Yeah, sort of like in the same vein of HETA, this
was a terrible day for uhTestament of Anne Lee, despite
the kind of film that I reallyrespected.
I really liked a lot of it.
Um I thought it should havefactored in in multiple places
here, especially considering youknow how they treated the
brutalist.
But even then, I mean, oneediting nomination for the
Testament of An Lee is very farfrom at least a best director
nomination for uh Brady Corbet.

(35:04):
Um and so I think that's badnews, and I think it's going to
speak to upcoming struggles,especially as more people watch
the film.
Um, so that's something to beaware of.
Um, at the same time, I will saylike Jackie, when it got picked
up by Searchlight, uh FoxSearchlight back in 2016, it did
get a nomination here for BestFeature.

SPEAKER_00 (35:21):
Yeah, you know, and so Searchlight kind of knows how
to maybe and that was a yearagain that they missed Best
Picture at the Oscars, and itstill nabbed three nominations
uh at the Oscars, yeah.
At the Oscars.

SPEAKER_02 (35:33):
Um and as you were saying, yeah, here got listed
for best film for Jack, um forfor Jackie got listed for best
film.
Um, and so I do think that'sthat's worrying news if you're a
search light again.
And the the idea that you'regetting closer and closer to
being left off the best picturelist is is becoming a reality.

SPEAKER_00 (35:51):
Um something that I would like to mention is sort of
also closer and closer topossibly being a low nomination
or a zero nomination.

SPEAKER_02 (35:57):
Or a zero nomination, certainly.
Um, I think yeah, that's got tobe worrying because it's not
like your other two films areyou know slam dunks for any
other category too.
So I guess that's the only thingthat Search has going for it is
can they get completely blankout of every single category in
one year?
I'm not sure that's everhappened.
I'm not sure that I'm not surethat can't happen.
Um, international film wasinteresting because Jafar Panahi

(36:17):
did not get in.
Right.
Um and Park Chan Wuk did not getin.
Um, and so I thought that wasinteresting.
Sort of two of the more veteranestablished filmmakers did not
make the short list.
Again, very cool shortlist.
All that's left of views there.
That's a great movie.
I thought it'd factor in bigger,but I'm glad to see it there.

SPEAKER_00 (36:32):
Um becoming a gimme guinea fowl.

SPEAKER_02 (36:36):
Secret Agent is the one that did well from sort of
the neon favorites, right?
Because I don't thinksentimental value got in either.
No, it did not.
So, like a lot of the favorites,um, quote unquote, to get in for
that Oscar and to be sort offavored enough as international
films to factor into BestPicture actually did not make it
in here, but the Secret Agentdid.
I will note that.
Um, and Surrat did also.

(36:58):
Yeah, so that's kind of that Ithought that was an interesting
choice.

SPEAKER_00 (37:00):
Um, so yeah, I think um Yeah, but uh you know, this
uh foreign film list especiallydoesn't correlate too well with
the Academy, so it's attracts.

SPEAKER_02 (37:09):
I I well I'd have to I'd have to do some more
research to see not matchingsort of foreign film to to the
Oscars foreign film, but I dowonder you know how many foreign
film foreign language as picturenominees at the Oscars don't
have a footprint whatsoever atthe Independent Spirit Awards.

(37:30):
That makes sense because becauseit is sentimental value, no
other choice, and it was just anaccident.
I don't think that builds wellfor all three of them getting
into Best Picture, right?
Maybe two of them can survivethat, but certainly not all
three.
Right.
And I do wonder about the two.

SPEAKER_00 (37:44):
Right.
And uh now let's move on to theNew York Film Critics Circle,
which is you know, if you knowabout these precursors, you know
that the big three are the NewYork Film Critics Circle, the
Los Angeles Film CriticsAssociation, and the National
Society Film Critics.
We got our first of the bigthree here, and uh you and I
were very comfortable predictingthat one battle after another
was going to win best film here,and I and that it's by and large

(38:07):
going to be the favorite to winmost of these precursors and
these critic awards.
So don't be surprised if youhear best film one battle after
another a hundred times in thenext two months.
One after another.
Um, so that one best film.

SPEAKER_02 (38:24):
But also it was great to see because Paul has
actually never won best filmhere, despite having a bunch of
films that have you know beenhave placed here, and he's he's
got a lot of his films have gota lot of accolades.

SPEAKER_00 (38:33):
He's actually been nominated twice for writing, I
believe.

SPEAKER_02 (38:35):
Yes.
Uh I think he Phantom Thread onLicorice Pizza and Burt Ronald's
run for Boogie Knights.
Um, but this is actually thefirst time that he's picking up
Best Picture, which is which isgreat to see.

SPEAKER_00 (38:45):
Right.
And uh I thought that it wouldwin that one battle would win
Best Picture and Best Director,because I think he's never won
Best Director.
As did I, no, and he's stilldirectorless.
Yeah, uh it was still given toJeff Arpanahi, for it was just
an accident.
We had Peggda's the runner opalso.
If you've been looking at ourcharts and our predictions from
day one, we've been saying thatWagner Moore is going to be the
critics' favorite.
He's absolutely phenomenal inthe secret agent.

(39:06):
Expect him to win all three ofthe big awards, New York Film
Critics, National Aside fromCritics, and LAFCA.
He needs it.
Um, and I believe that he will,I mean, this is just a long-term
projection, but we both feelvery similarly that he will be
nominated for the Golden Globeon Monday, and he will win that
Golden Globe at the ceremony,and it will be very quick, it

(39:26):
will very quickly become a racebetween Marty Supreme, Timothy
Chalamet, and Wagner Mora forthe Secret Agent.
I know some people right now arehigh on Leo DiCaprio, possibly
getting his second Oscar.
I don't see that at all.
It's uh for us, it's been veryclear as soon as we started
hearing the news about MartySupreme that this was going to
be a race between Wagner Moraand Timothy Chalamet.

SPEAKER_02 (39:47):
It's sort of interesting because you had
predicted correctly the New Yorkwin for Wagner, and I and I
didn't because there I pickedtwo other really quality
performances that did well, Ithink, with the New York crowd.
But I will say that like ifAnything's gonna get in the way
of Wagner Mora getting the threecritical courts that he needs,
it's the fact that Lee Byeungunis in a film that's as popular

(40:08):
and his film his performance isas accomplished.
And so I do wonder if we'regonna see, you know, an
organization like the NationalArt of Film Critics maybe side
with someone who isn't Wagner,um, or LA side with someone who
isn't Wagner.
I doubt it.
I don't know because I do feelthat Lee Byeungun is amazing in
that film and he carries so muchof it.
Um, and that it would be an easyway to reward no other choice

(40:33):
without having to give it a bestpicture nomination.
And so I actually think that'sfascinating.
The fact that every single bestactor contender is miles away
from Timothy Chalamet.
And I say that sight unseen, Ihaven't seen it, but I know his
trajectory, right?
There's no way that they cancompete with him.
The performance you're sayingcan come close is to Wagner

(40:54):
Mora, right?
But we know that Wagner Mora isnot going to be, you know, the
performance of the film that thegeneral movie going public is
going to be most aware of.
But I would argue that LeeDungen is in the same exact
position that if this filmwasn't being handled by Neon,
and if Sony Picture Classics washandling it instead and they
prioritized it, they would begiving Wagner Mora a run for his

(41:17):
money in terms of having thatsecond spot to Timothy Chalamet
and being the one to give him,you know, a run for the a run
for his money.
Um, but because it is from Neon,it does feel like Neon is
focusing more on Wagner Mora.
But I I know that from you andI's conversation, we feel pretty
confident about four umnominees, eventual nominees for

(41:38):
best actor, and that includesTimothy, and that includes
Wagner Mora.
And we kind of say there's anopen fifth spot, and it all
depends on who has the edge.
And I feel like you and I wouldagree that the best performance
of the actors who are incontention there is probably Lee
Byeong-un's, and that if enoughpeople see it, it would be Lee
Byeong-un who had that fifthnomination.
Um, and that it's not asproblematic a movie um for

(42:01):
critics or for the movie goingpublic as other films like
Springsteen or Begonia or JayKelly.
Um, and so I do think thatthere's an interesting narrative
that could eventually arise ifif critics support Lee Byeong-un
um passionately.

SPEAKER_00 (42:19):
You know, I I hear what you're saying, but I I
think I disagree a little bitpersonally.
I think that I feel like theenthusiasm for No Other Choice
uh while it's there, I thinkit's not comparing as well, just
just intuitively, um, to thekind of enthusiasm that a film
like No Other Choice um had whenit was uh being campaigned in

(42:41):
2022.
Um you mean decision to leave.
Uh I'm sorry, decision to leave,yes, in 2022.
Um, and so I guess I'm just notseeing that level of you know
enthusiastic fervor um that Ithat I experienced when we in
2022 with decision to leave.
And so I think part of that isbecause decision to leave very

(43:02):
early on uh was crowned, youknow, with uh an award at Can.
Um and that's that's sort of thesame train that um secret agent
is riding, you know, post canhaving two wins and best actor
and I believe best director.

(43:25):
It sort of has that standing asbeing this, you know, critical
favorite that I think no otherchoice being blanked at Venice
wasn't able to attain to attain.
Um, and so I I I do feel thatthe majority of critics are
going to side with uh the secretagent as being there between the
two, which one they prefer,certainly as a performance uh

(43:48):
for Wagner Mora.
Um, and so I I have very littledoubt, maybe I'll be proven
wrong, as you're saying, uh,that he'll win all three.
Um and if it were my personalchoice, I mean, I am absolutely
I would nominate Wagner Mora.
He might even be my winner.
Um, and uh Lee Bion yun uh wouldcertainly be in contention.
He's one of the bestperformances of the year as

(44:10):
well.
But I love Jesse Plemens and youknow, Jesse Plemens and Bugonia,
even though that has very littlechance of happening, it's my
probably my second favoriteperformance uh by a by by uh by
a lead by a male actor in thisyear.
So I'm just not sure that LeeBion yun is the biggest compet
competitor for Wagner Mora andthat film.

(44:32):
Uh, but we'll see what happens.

SPEAKER_01 (44:33):
Right.

SPEAKER_00 (44:35):
Um, and so Rose Byrne won best actress.
And so uh very early on youcalled this, you know, uh after
seeing it at Sundance and in thesummer, I believe.
Right.
And that this was gonna be afilm uh that critics were gonna
champion for best actress forRose Byrne.
I think there's a very goodchance that she does win all
three as well.
Um she needs it, yeah.

(44:56):
Um, even though I do believethat she'll get the Golden Globe
as well.
We'll see.
She needs that too.
Um, and so I think there's goingto be, you know, uh this these
uh prestigious critics are goingto push this issue that Rose
Byrne deserves to be nominatedfor this performance.
And if a hat like that'd kickyou.
And so it's not a surprise tosee her uh win here.

(45:17):
I think it was a surprise to seeher win, and we'll talk about it
in a minute, uh the NBR.
And I think it just adds to thisidea that these awards bodies
are really going to try to pushfor this to happen.
And actually, that's a big assetfor her, you know, uh being a
critic's darling.
Uh, because if she gets blankedin any of these major
precursors, she has that to gofor, to go with.

(45:39):
Even though, as we saw just lastyear, Marion Jean-Baptiste
couldn't muster that ortransform that into a
nomination.
Um, best actor, best supportingactor, Benicio de Toro for one
battle after another.
I can't tell you how happy I amfor that win.
Benicio del Toro was my favoriteperformance in one battle.
I think he's absolutelymagnificent.
I think it's your favoriteperformance as well.
To see him having the award runhe's having so far just makes me

(46:04):
so happy.
And I know now people arepossibly thinking, oh, so yeah,
now Benicio de Toro is a lockfor a nomination.
But you and I, very as soon aswe saw the movie, we knew,
listen, Benicio de Toro is goingto get an eye for this.
He's that good, he's thatphenomenal, he's that memorable,
he's that poignant.
Um, and we rushed to put him inour gold derby five when no one

(46:24):
was predicting him.
And then, you know, a couplemonths later, he's already in
the top four or top three.

SPEAKER_01 (46:28):
Right.

SPEAKER_00 (46:29):
But really, you know, from the very beginning,
we knew this was going to be aperformance that was going to
stand out.
I'm surprised that the criticskind of agree with us, and he's
being spotlighted more than SeanPenn is.

SPEAKER_02 (46:40):
Well, I I I'm not surprised in the sense that New
York film critics, they actuallygave the awards to William Hurt
one year, remember, for Historyof Violence, where he eventually
got nominated for thatperformance.
He's wonderful in that.
Um, but just that sort of ideathat because it's a little bit
less showy, because that it's uhit's a little shorter in length,
I knew that New York could bepassionate about it.

(47:00):
You correctly uh predicted it assort of your spoiler, your
runner-up here at the new inyour prediction for New York
film critics.
So I'm not surprised.
But again, I am surprised that Ibelieve he won the NBR as well.
Yes, right.
So I am surprised that it'sstarting to catch on that just
the character has resonatedculturally um um with so many
people at this point, so manypeople who love movies.

(47:22):
Um, so I do I do wonder there'sagain an extension to this
conversation where if Beniciodel Toro continues to steamroll
in supporting actor and hesolidifies his nomination, is
the unlikable Sean Penncharacter in trouble that may
become a talking point thefurther we go, right?

(47:45):
So I I would keep an eye onthat.

SPEAKER_00 (47:47):
We've talked about that, and and you know,
certainly you're right, we'llsee what happens.
But I think that I've even toyedwith the idea that he's gonna
miss the sag, that he's gonnaget a sag snub um when those
nominations come out, and theBenisio will be the one
representing the film in thatcategory.
But we'll see what happens.

SPEAKER_02 (48:03):
Yeah, we'll see what happens.
But I think it's it's been anice uh turn to see.
Um, and well, supporting actressactually went to um the the the
I think my runner-upperformance, which was Amy
Madigan.
You had thought maybe Wound Mehere.
Yeah, um, we both thought thatTeyana must have been the
favorite, but again, Teyanamisses, and this is one awards

(48:24):
body where you think yeahthey're gonna appreciate a more
uh a uh complex complicatedcharacter, a complexly drawn
character.
That was not the case, but theydid go with what we had
suspected, which is maybe a morepopulist movie.
And you had said wound me, I hadsaid Amy Madigan, they went with
Amy Madigan, right?
Which is a great, great news,right?

SPEAKER_00 (48:41):
I think it's fascinating.
You know, if you looked onsocial media, people were, you
know, ripping their hair out,you know, uh feeling, you know,
like how the hell, this iscrazy, you know, this momentum,
can she sustain it?
And you and I were very early onsaying, you know, folks, this is
a real thing.
Amy Madigan has a lot going forher.

(49:01):
Possibly the biggest thing shehas going against her is yes,
it's not the kind of film thatgets an eye for Oscars, right?
And it's not the kind ofperformance that gets nominated
either.
But besides that, she haseverything else.
We wrote a tweet on it.
Yeah, right.
She has everything else.
Uh, she's at this supportingactress category, welcomes uh,
you know, veterans of a certainage.
She's right in that age, uh, youknow, at 75 years old, having

(49:24):
this sort of mini renaissance ina way, with this iconic, you
know, Gladys character thateveryone that pop culture made a
thing and and became a thing formost people in the in the
Cinephile community.
Um, it's also there's atransformative aspect to it.
And, you know, uh actors whoundergo transformations tend to

(49:44):
do well in nominations if theirfilm is well received.
This film was incredibly wellreceived, we well received by
critics, incredibly wellreceived at the box office, so
much so that you know, given thecompetition we have this year,
it's even in the running to geta best picture nomination, which
is insane to say.

SPEAKER_01 (49:59):
Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 (49:59):
Um, it's a film that can easily get uh a nomination
in, for example, uh screenplay,uh, because I think it's the
kind of uh film that somewriters might be attracted to,
and the sort of ingenuity of thescript and the story and and the
hit that it was.
And so she wouldn't she wouldn'tbe by herself if she did get
nominated.

(50:20):
Um, and so there's a lot of thiscategory needs a veteran, and a
lot of these other uh veterans,quote unquote, people that have
been been there before uh haveprevious nominations, like
Ariana Grande just last year,and Emily Blunt in a film that's
uh underperformed at the boxoffice and Glenn Close in a
franchise that doesn't reallyget recognized for acting.

(50:42):
You're just not giving me enoughcontenders here that are
persuasive or compelling enough,but she is compelling enough.
Right.
You know, at 75 years old, she'sa character actor, she's built a
long filmography.
Her last nomination was in the80s, and so there's just so many
stars aligning for her tohappen.
Um, that these wins just sort ofcement that understanding,

(51:05):
correct?

SPEAKER_02 (51:06):
Yeah, I think that they're you know really lighting
up what her trajectory is, andit's looking good so far.
Um, again, if it's if this isplaying well for critics, I can
only imagine this playing betterfor industry members who are
gonna, you know, champion anoriginal box office hit.

SPEAKER_00 (51:23):
Um and not only that, this film is going to do,
I mean, we believe that it willdo well at the guilds.

SPEAKER_02 (51:27):
That's what I'm saying.

SPEAKER_00 (51:28):
Yeah, exactly.
It will do well at the PGA, itwill get nominated at the WGA.
And so we're now we're talkingabout a film that again has
critical acclaim.
Uh it was a box office hit thatis doing well within, you know,
industry circles and thiscategory that needs a veteran,
and this, you know, uh verypopular uh uh character that was

(51:50):
created for her, um, and thatshe helped breathe life into.
It just feels like and hercompetition for that veteran
spot, it just feels likeeverything is uh right here for
the taking.

SPEAKER_02 (52:02):
I think that's fascinating.
And I want to return to thispoint, but let me just let me
finish recapping some of thethings we saw happen, which is
um animated feature, youcorrectly predicted K-pop demon
hunters.
I thought that was a little toomainstream, obviously not.
People online on social mediadid mention that if it's winning
here, how can it lose?
And I think that's an excellentargument at this stage.
Um, cinematography went toSinners for Autumn Uh Dural

(52:24):
Darkpaw, and that was who youhad predicted as a spoiler.
You thought Resurrection, Ithought Resurrection also.
We think that's awesome.
Yeah, we also think it's thefront runner for the Oscar as
well.
Obviously, I mean I do agree.
I I would agree with that.
Um, but again, it's a mainstreamfilm winning here, so you got
that spoiler right.
Um, nonfiction film, MyUndesirable Friends, I had
called that as a spoiler.

(52:44):
Um, it's great to see it winhere.
It had won on Gotham the nightbefore, so it's picking up a
sizable amount of support sofar.
Um, international film went tothe secret agent, which was, I
believe, um that and one battlewere the only films to win
multiple awards.
And so I do think it'ssignificant that the secret
agent won here over um JafarPanahi's.
I think there was some idea thatas voting was going on, let's

(53:08):
not give Jafar Panahi the winhere so that maybe we can
reserve it was just an accidentfor a bigger reward.
That might have been the case,but I think it's a solid win for
the secret agent here, and it'sgonna need it to compete with
the other neon titles.
First film went to Ephis.
Um, we both love that film.
Um, I had said as a spoiler, um,but obviously it beat out um
maybe bigger favorites likesorry, baby, as you had said,

(53:29):
familiar touch.
Um, but then the reason why Ijust want to quickly recap that
is because I want to go back tothe acting awards because we had
four pretty solid winners whoare in the thick of the race.
Um, but what if I told you thatmaybe one of them at least has
to be on the chopping block?
The reality is New York filmcritics is averaging about two

(53:52):
winners um right now getting anOscar nomination.
It's they have gotten three inthe past, they've gotten only
one in the past.
But when you look at all fourperformances getting in, it's
kind of interesting because thelast time that happened was in
2016 with Casey Affleck forManchester by the Sea.
Um you had Michelle Williams forManchester by the Sea.

(54:13):
Uh, you had um Herschel Ali, onefor Moonlight, one for
Moonlight, um, and Isabel WhoParent, one for uh for Allen
Things to Come in.
Right, but it's also interestingthat two of them would be
nominated for the same film.
So it's four performances, threefilms, right?

(54:34):
So the last time you're gonnafind a year where the New York
film critics gave it to fourperformances from four different
films, and all of them ended upbeing nominated for an Oscar is
all the way back to 2007, andthat's Day Lewis for There Will
Be Blood, Amy Ryan SupportingActress for Gone Baby Gone,
Javier Bardem for In A Countryfor All Men, and Julie Christie

(54:56):
for Away from Her.
And so that's almost 20 years.
So the odds are not great thatall four of these will get in.
It's obviously not impossiblebecause it happened in 2007, and
it even happened the year Ibefore in 2006, but it has been
a while, right?
So my question is to you who doyou think is on the chopping
block here if at least one ofthem has to miss?

(55:20):
Right.

SPEAKER_00 (55:20):
In my opinion, there's only two options because
I really feel like Benito DelToro and Wagner Mora will not
miss, um, just on the strengthof their uh campaigning and
their films.
Um and so it's really betweenRose Byrne for if I had like Zed
Kick You and Amy Madigan forweapons, which on paper are the
riskier movies um becausethey're not things they tend to

(55:44):
nominate.
Um, so I think uh at least oneor both are possibly on the
chopping block.
However, I will say that basedon some of the things that we've
been saying in this episode, Ithink in a way Rose Byrne is a
little bit behind because someof these other organizations
chose uh not to give her anaward that might, again, as we

(56:06):
were saying, be representativeof uh what these uh industry
representatives think of thefilm when they see it.
Um, whereas I think Amy Madiganbeing able to place in a place
like NYFCC is probably moreindicative that, you know, uh
these cinephile circles aretaking this performance and this
actress seriously.

SPEAKER_02 (56:27):
Right.
I think that's an excellentpoint, you know, in defense of
Amy Madigan's win for weapons.
And again, that's if we'resaying that only one gets cut
off, but realistically therecould be more than one.
Mm-hmm.
Is that historically, from whatI can tell from recent history,
horror at the Oscars that hasdone well is not horror that has

(56:53):
done well at the New York filmcritic circle.
So Get Out did not win at theNew York Film Critic Circle.
Daniel Kaluya didn't win, and hegot an Oscar nomination.
Demi Moore last year for thesubstance, the substance was not
nominated at the New York FilmCritic Circle.
Black Swan, Natalie Poormandidn't win, didn't win one of

(57:13):
the big awards.
I think it won cinematography,but horror like they tend to not
overlap.
So the horror that has done wellthere, for example, I think
recently of Lupid and Yango,yeah, for us, didn't happen.
It didn't get nominated for anOscar.

SPEAKER_03 (57:26):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (57:27):
And so I will say that that's sort of an
interesting dichotomy here,which is a lot of the horror
successive that have successesthat have crossed the line at
the Oscars, they've kind of beenleft out at the New York film
critic circle.
That has that was not the casewith weapons.
Is that maybe a foreshadowingfor disappointing news, you
know, at next year?

(57:47):
For Amy Matter.

SPEAKER_00 (57:49):
And I think that's a good point, but I'll also bring
up that I tried to look over thelast 10 years how often the the
quartet that's picked by theNYFCC, how many winners they
tend to have in the group.
Interesting.
And I went back the 10 years andI believe, you know, correct me
if I'm wrong, but I believethere was a couple years where I
think none of the quartet werewinners at all.

(58:11):
Um obviously maybe some of thoseweren't even nominated.
But by and large, they tend tohave one to two winners in that
quartet.
Um, and so even the year thatyou were mentioning of uh 2016,
they had two winners there.
Um and so I think that'ssomething that's making me a
little bit feel more positiveabout I mean Mad again, because

(58:33):
if we're looking at the winnershere, which of these four could
be winners?
Because I feel that TimothyChalamet, as you were saying, is
unstoppable for Marty Supreme,if we're talking, you know, 89
Metacritic reviews and a filmthat might even get 10
nominations and a third not athird nomination um at age 30
for lead, the stars are just youknow way too aligned for him to

(58:56):
miss, um, and especially withhis competition.
If we take that into account,Rose Byrne cannot win for if a
head like Zatic you at theAcademy Awards, it just won't
happen.
Um, Benicio Latoro, I think,doesn't stand a great chance to
win because he already has anOscar.
And if his main competition isStan Skarsgard, who doesn't have
an Oscar at I believe um 79, 78years old, um uh I think you

(59:19):
know the industry by and largeis going to be happy to award
him with a win finally in hisfirst nomination, which is
crazy.
Um, that the only person herewho can win is really Amy
Madigan.
Right.
You know, there's really nobodyelse.
And so if you look at it thatway, you start to feel a little
bit better about Amy Madigan.
Yeah.
Um, because we do believe thatsupporting actress, again, if

(59:39):
Amy it's like you've said in thepast, Amy Madigan's biggest
hurdle is going to be can sheget nominated?

SPEAKER_02 (59:45):
We'd always divide this into due process.
There's phase one, getting thenomination, and phase two,
winning the actual award, right?

SPEAKER_00 (59:51):
And they're two completely different animals.
Right.
If she manages to get thenomination, then she's a huge
contender because of her.
Her competition, you know, ifher competition ends up being
her and let's say Tana Taylor,we've already highlighted some
reasons why Tana is vulnerable.
You know, and some of the otherpeople who could possibly
contend against her, like Wun MiMusaku.

SPEAKER_02 (01:00:12):
She'll always have veteranship.

SPEAKER_00 (01:00:13):
Yeah, Inga, um uh or you know, Regina Haw possibly,
Fanny, one of Petro, you know,she really has, I think, the
edge in that competition.
So her biggest hurdle willactually be getting there.
Getting nominated.
Yeah.
Once she's nominated, I thinkit'll be much easier for her to
win.
She can cruise.

SPEAKER_02 (01:00:32):
Yeah.
I I I understand that that idea.
And I think that's aninteresting point that you
brought up about, you know, howmany, how much, how many winners
they're averaging.
Um, because I certainly thinkthat you're right.
There's a lot of these New Yorkwinners from this year that's
going to be very impossible,very difficult for them to pull
off an upset.
Right.
Um, I do think that of the two,Sean Penn and Benicio, I I would
think they would rather see aBenisha win for supporting
actor.

(01:00:53):
You know, strictly speaking,between the two won battle
supporting actors.
But it just hurts that healready has an offset.
But he already has one.
So I'm not sure they're rushingto give him a second, especially
when Stanis Garsgard doesn'thave one yet.
Um, so I I I think you're rightthat on paper, the performance
that looks like it's most readyto win is probably Amy Madigans.

SPEAKER_00 (01:01:10):
And if you look at it that way, the performance
that's most vulnerable is RoseByrne, who again, we've already
seen some micro examples ofthese groups uh being a little
bit possibly turned off by it.

SPEAKER_02 (01:01:22):
And not just that, because I would I would make the
argument that like Wagner Mora,it doesn't seem like it's in the
cards for him to win, but itcertainly seems like it's in the
cards for him to be the toughestone to beat.
Yeah, yeah.
I'm not sure Rose Byrne wouldever be the toughest one to
beat.
Yeah, um, and that's despite,again, a brilliant performance
that's gonna turn off a lot ofpeople and an actor who has
worked with almost everyone.
Yeah, right.

(01:01:42):
I think that's gonna that'sgonna be her biggest asset, is
that she's well known, she'swell liked, she can do
everything in any capacity.
Um, and that's what she reallyhas going for her.
Right.
Right.
The question is, is that gonnabe enough?

SPEAKER_01 (01:01:54):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (01:01:55):
You know?
Um, so let's jump now to um thewinners at the National Board of
Review.
Let's quickly go over those.
And um, so what what do we see?

SPEAKER_00 (01:02:04):
Uh again, not a surprise here.
Uh, one battle winning bestfilm.
Again, we've expect one battleto really mop the floor here and
win most of these best pictureprizes, if not all of them.
Um, watch it become the firstfirst film to win every single
precursor.
Um, uh Best Director, PTA, who II believe, I don't know if he's
won before here or now if thisno, he has not.

SPEAKER_02 (01:02:25):
Actually, he has never won Best Director.
I think um he's won screenplay.

SPEAKER_00 (01:02:30):
Right.
Leo DiCaprio gets his first winfor one battle after another.
Uh Rose Byrne gets her secondwin.
Um, I thought that wassurprising, even though this
group is very fond, let's say,quote unquote, of A24.
They tend to do really wellhere.
Um, still seeing her as theirwinner was interesting because I
I see it as such a critic'sdarling for these major, you

(01:02:51):
know, top critics.

SPEAKER_02 (01:02:52):
But and also very few winners actually, you know,
win an award, an acting award atthe National Board of Review
without being mentioned in theBest Picture section in the top
10 section.

SPEAKER_00 (01:03:01):
Right.
And uh Supporting Actor wasBenicio with another win.
He's been, you know, just uhdoing incredibly well.
Um, and Inga, um, Lillias wonfor Sentimental Valley for
supporting actress.

SPEAKER_02 (01:03:14):
A bit of a surprise.

SPEAKER_00 (01:03:15):
Um, was a surprise they tend to have a little bit
of you know, uh they tend tohave some surprising winners
here.
Supporting actress is a categorythat tends to be surprising.
Last year, interestingly enough,Al Fanning won this for a
complete unknown and wassnubbed.
And that brings us to a largerpoint.
We love doing this when we seethese um critics groups that
people talk a lot about.

(01:03:35):
Is okay, how well do they dowith their you know, Oscar
statistics?
And actually, this is a groupthat doesn't do that well.
Um, last year, I think they onlygot one person, one actor in, or
did they get zero?

SPEAKER_02 (01:03:46):
Um, I know they had one, I believe.

SPEAKER_00 (01:03:49):
Right.
Um, I believe they had uh DanielCraig for Queer, Al Fanny for
Complete Unknown, Nicole Kidmanfor Baby Girl, and Kieran Culken
and Kieran Culkin.
Uh so three of them weresnubbed.
Um that I think is something tothink about here because uh if
we're looking at here, if we'relooking at this list, again,
take out take out of thosestatistics, Leo DiCaprio and

(01:04:10):
Benicious Lautoro, you're leftwith possibly Rose Byrne or Inga
Lilius, uh, possibly bothgetting snubbed or one getting
snubbed at the end of the day atthe Oscars.
I will say that you and I havefeel a very particular way about
the supporting actress race andthese uh double nominations, you
know, a film getting twomentions in this category.

(01:04:30):
Right.
So I think most pundits thinkthat that's going to be
sentimental value, that they'llbe able to get L and Inga in
that into that category.
And you and I feel a little bitmore positive.
We've we we we feel verystrongly that the film that will
get two supporting actressmentions will be one battle.
Yeah.
And it'll get Regina Hall andTayana Taylor in.
I I think it's interesting toknow.

(01:04:51):
And all I'm trying to say withthat is that you know, seeing
these this quartet, Ingaautomatically uh catches my eye
as as the as the one that wouldget snobbed.

SPEAKER_02 (01:05:02):
Here's what's interesting, and I'm gonna sort
of build on what you just said,which is um most of the acting
winners come from best picturemovies, and obviously one battle
can end up here, as you said,it's one picture director, two
actings.
Um, but so if I had like ZedKick, you did not make it into
the top 10 films of the year,and neither did Sentimental
Value, and they usually err onthe side of not putting

(01:05:22):
international films there.
I don't know if it's notallowed, but it certainly
doesn't happen very often.
Um, something like Parasitewasn't even listed there.
But how fascinating is it thatthey gave it to Inga when they
gave it to L last year?
Yeah, so could they even give itto L this year?
Right, right.
It's sort of like maybe what iftheir favorite performance was
L, but they sort of said wecan't give it to her twice twice
in a row.

(01:05:43):
Right.
And so I said, I we'll we'llgive it to Inga.
Right.
Um, so I do think that that'skind of interesting.
Yeah, um, if Inga will walk thatsame trajectory of being snubbed
like Al Fanning, but I do thinkit's Al Fanning that's time gets
in.
And yeah, exactly.
So I exactly because Al Fanninglast year won for Complete
Unknown and her actually herco-star got it.
Right, right.
Um, so that was interesting.

(01:06:03):
Um another fascinating thinghere is what do you make of the
win for train dreams talkingabout last year?
Because now these guys win againbecause they won for Sing Sing.

SPEAKER_00 (01:06:15):
For screenplay.
Yeah.
So what do you what do you whatare you making of that?
I think that again, it justshows the strength uh that Train
Dreams has and the legs that ithas, and that it's uh going to
be a film that's going to beit's it's it has the perfect
scenario because it has gonna beappealing to these uh critics
groups and it's also gonna beappealing uh to uh these

(01:06:36):
industry representatives.
So it's exactly where you wantto be.

SPEAKER_02 (01:06:40):
So you think you know, if the NBR has maybe no
issue saying I'm giving it tothe same group of writers again,
that maybe again that's gonna bea larger pattern within the
academy.
Um, and maybe even go so faragain as to finally getting them
the best picture nomination.

SPEAKER_00 (01:06:55):
100%.
I expect I uh you know the AFIis coming out soon, and I have a
strong feeling that it will getnominated at the AFI as well.

SPEAKER_02 (01:07:01):
Right.
Okay, and so what else did wesee?

SPEAKER_00 (01:07:03):
Uh Chase Infinity for one battle won the
breakthrough performance.
That was an easy one to predict.
Um, directorial debut went tohave a victor for sorry baby.
Another solid win.
Um, but also not so difficult tosee.
I thought we thought thatSinners would do well here that
might even possibly win bestpicture.
I thought Sinners was thewinner, yeah.
Yeah, because they tend to tryto go against the grain

(01:07:23):
sometimes with their bestpicture winner, you know.

SPEAKER_02 (01:07:26):
We'll talk about the top 10 because you were right on
the money about something.
But we had thought maybe Sinnersfor the win because Fruit Vale
Station was a top 10 film, Creedwas a top 10 film, Black Panther
was a top 10 film, and wethought this is gonna be one of
the few groups to say, I'm notgonna give it to one battle
after another, I'll go ahead andgive it to Sinners.
That didn't happen, one battlewon.
Um, but what what else did yousee?

(01:07:47):
And then we'll recap at the veryend the top 10 because I think
you said something that wasreally important.

SPEAKER_00 (01:07:51):
Right.
Um, and best anime feature wentto Arco, Best International film
went to it was just an accident,documentary went to cover up,
Lord Partras's documentary,cinematography again went to
Sinners.
Uh, we believe that that is byand large the forerunner for the
Oscar.
Uh Stunt Artistry went toMission Impossible.
You got that one right.
Yeah.
Um, the Freedom of ExpressionAward went to put your soul on

(01:08:13):
your hand and walk.
Um, and so the top ten films atthe NBR.
Listen, the NBR hasn't had agreat trajectory with the
Academy Awards.
Um, in their good days, theytend to match around seven.
Last time, I think they got likethree or two.
Uh, I mean, last year, Ibelieve.
I don't know, I'd have to check.

(01:08:34):
Um, but try to count on five toseven nominees correlating with
the best picture.
This group doesn't predict thetop ten very well.

SPEAKER_02 (01:08:43):
Um, and this is ten plus one, so they have a ten.
Yeah, yeah.
So it's like eleven total.

SPEAKER_00 (01:08:48):
Yeah.
Um, I will say that looking atthe list, it feels to me like
it's a five-year at most, wherethey get five movies correct um
that correlate with the Oscars.
There's a lot, I don't know, youknow, I hope I don't sound
disrespectful, quote unquote,you know, fat here, you know,
things that I think I couldeasily see the Academy not
embracing for Best Picture.

(01:09:09):
You know, when I have a listthat includes Avatar, F1, J.
Kelly, Rental Family, Wake UpDead Man, and Wicked for Good,
those are all films that I thinkcan easily miss Best Picture.
Um, so we're really only talkingabout um uh Frankenstein, Mars
Supreme, Sinners, and One Battlebeing the uh sort of uh films

(01:09:31):
most likely to correlate.

SPEAKER_02 (01:09:32):
Right.
I mean, so in our predictions,you had made sort of the predic
the brilliant call of sayingthey're not gonna award Hamnet.
Right.
And you're right, they did notaward Hamlet.
Right.
Um and so I thought that wasreally fascinating that it did
end up happening.
We kind of felt that Begonia wasgonna have a tough time here
because they're not historicallygreat Yorgles people, right?

SPEAKER_00 (01:09:51):
Um But I'll also say something else that happened
here that we talked about wasthat uh sequels tend to do a
little bit uh worse uh thesecond time around than the
first time.
I believe we saw that with Dunepart one and part two, where
part one I think was mentionedfor a couple things and part two
was just got film.
Last year, this critics groupwent crazy for Wicked.

(01:10:12):
That's right.
It won Best Film, it won BestDirector, uh Ariana Grande and
Cynthia Rival got a spotlightaward.
This year it only got bestpicture.
That's right.
And so I think it's emblematicof this.
Uh we've been talking and wetalked about in our last episode
this the step down that thisfilm has had.

SPEAKER_02 (01:10:26):
Yeah, it's sort of interesting though, because it's
still like Dune 2, not enough ofa step down for them to
completely ignore it ignore itor get it off the list.
It's still there.
Um they're knives out fans.
Glass Onion was here, Knives Outwas here.
I kind of pitched to you, and wehad maybe as a spoil in our
predictions, they love GeorgeClooney, and George Clooney made
it in here with Jay with JayKelly, so that's not a surprise.

(01:10:48):
They love Bradley Cooper, andthis wasn't a spot where is this
thing on should have made it.
It did not, and instead theychose the other search life
film, Rental Family.
Exactly.
And I think that that's youknow, um, sort of warring to see
if you're if you're you know ifyou're a fan of is this thing
on.
Um and so I think you sort ofcreated a separation between

(01:11:10):
movies on this list, and so onone end you have one battle
after another, Frankenstein,Marty Supreme, Sinners, and
Train Dreams, which is getting anice surge here, right?
Those are the five.
Um and then you separated thatbetween the other films that you
know maybe are a little bitfurther behind.
And if if you kind of look atit, they're all films that if

(01:11:32):
you know they have mixedresponse, a significant amount
of them.
Um, and maybe you're gonna havetrouble factoring in into other
places.
So you have Avatar, you have F1,you have J.
Kelly, you have Rental Family,Wake Up Dead Man, and Wicked.
And so my question to you iswhat if this was one of those
years where we're gonna see fiveto seven?

(01:11:53):
You have the five that you'recomfortable with, but bring me
bring two movies from that thefrom the fattier section that
you think if they get the rightpush, it can maybe make it
dentier.

SPEAKER_00 (01:12:05):
It's it's a very interesting question.
It's you know, I don't think wehave great options, uh, not in
terms of what I personally thinkabout the movies, but you know,
just you know, me seeing theirlong game Oscar Bros books.
I would have to say that if Ihad to pick two more, I would
probably end up picking F1 witha strong Apple campaign and it

(01:12:26):
being their highest grossingmovie ever.
Um, and Avatar with the respectfor the for James Cameron and
his pioneering uh franchise.

SPEAKER_02 (01:12:35):
Right.
I mean, I think those are twoexcellent choices.
Um, I think it does kind of callmy attention that Avatar could
potentially be a visual effectswinner and they like to have the
winners there.
Um, I certainly agree that youhave to watch out for F1 here.
Top Gun Maverick won this awardfor Best Picture, so this could
be sort of um an outlier thatthey just like this brand of

(01:12:57):
filmmaking.
You have to be very careful asthe precursors go on how often
we're gonna see F1.
F1 to me, again, is another filmlike weapons where this should
be all over the place when itcomes to guilt to guilt time,
right?

SPEAKER_01 (01:13:10):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (01:13:10):
Um, so that's something to keep an eye on.
I think um the case for Wikiwould be that maybe they want to
include the costume designwinner, maybe.
Then again, I do think that Iwas shocked when Dune Part 2
missed that category.
So I don't know what's gonnahappen there.
Wake up Dead Man, unfortunately,it's it already seems like it's
gonna face too much originalNetflix competition.

SPEAKER_01 (01:13:31):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (01:13:31):
Um, Jake Kelly is one that I'd be very careful
about because as you had spokenabout earlier, it appeals to the
industry.

SPEAKER_00 (01:13:38):
Right.
I think the problem with allthose Netflix entries is that
since we already haveFrankenstein there, which tends
to do well, especially below theline.
Uh I think right now, if thereis a second Netflix movie, it
has to be train dreams.

SPEAKER_02 (01:13:51):
And I and I'm glad that you brought it there
because that brings me to mysecond question for you, which
is right now we're seeingFrankenstein sort of in the
upper echelon of best picture,train dreams is starting to
solidify itself at the top ofthat second tier for best
picture, maybe.
Um, certainly a strongercontender than we had thought.
But there's an issue here,right?

(01:14:12):
Which is that both films theycannot both get in for best
picture and both get dodged frombest actor.
And Joe Edgerton.
From an acting nomination,excuse me, from an acting
nomination.
Joe Edgerton is in the mostcompetitive category and is has
the quietest performance.
And Jacob Alorty is playing, youknow, a more speculative,

(01:14:33):
fantastical creature, which istypically not what they nominate
at the Oscars, and he still hasa very young career.

SPEAKER_00 (01:14:39):
Right.
Um, and so if you look at thehistory, we're we're talking
about how if you look at thehistory for Netflix, when
they've gotten historically twofilms into Best Picture, because
they've never gotten threefilms, um, when they got in two
films into Best Picture, atleast one of those films
factored into the acting races.

SPEAKER_02 (01:14:56):
Exactly.

SPEAKER_00 (01:14:57):
Um, it's probably very rare slash maybe not
realistic to think that Netflixwould get two films into Best
Picture and not at least land inacting somewhere.
Yeah, exactly.

SPEAKER_02 (01:15:08):
At one of their films, exactly.
Um, and so I think that's reallyfascinating to think about um
because it sort of paints theidea that Jacob Bellordi or Joel
Ederton is maybe stronger thanwe think, or that that second
Netflix movie is instead gonnapiggyback on what might be their
most actor-friendly movie, whichcould possibly be Jay Kelly,
right?

(01:15:28):
Which is what we talk aboutGeorge Clooney and Adam Sandler
possibly being possibly givingthe more actor-friendly film
performances.
Right, right.
Right.
And so that's something to lookfor as well.

SPEAKER_00 (01:15:37):
Right.
Okay, and the Critics ChoiceAwards are going to be uh
released, the nominees onFriday, and we'll have an
article up, uh having ourpredictions up.
Um, you know, we've talked aboutthis last year.
You and I feel very iffy aboutthe Critics Choice Awards, and
that'll be in our article.
Maybe we'll write a tweet.

(01:15:58):
Um, you know, as anorganization, we have a lot of
problems with the Critics'Choice Awards.
We sometimes call them in aderogatory fashion the Gold
Derby Awards, because you cantalk you can see who's going to
be nominated by just looking atwho the top six at Gold Derby
is, because it's an organizationthat's more interested in
predicting Oscars than they arehaving their own identity uh,

(01:16:19):
you know, during award season ofthe films that they want to
spotlight and that they want toacclaim.
You know, I'll never forget verysuspicious little things like
Jessica Chastain all of a suddenwinning the Critic's Choice
Award after she won the SAGAward.
Um, when it became clear thatshe was probably going to win
the Oscar, when it was clearthat they probably would have
wanted to give it to ChrisKristen Kristen Stewart for

(01:16:39):
Spencer, or when JenniferAniston somehow got nominated
for Cake after she got a SAG anda Globe NOM, and they started to
see that it was very likely thatshe would get an Oscar nom.
And somehow she showed up at theCritics Choice Awards for Best
Actress, you know, and theplethora of things like that.
They also pride themselves inannouncing sometimes before they
give the winner that they'vecorrectly predicted the Oscars,

(01:17:02):
such and such times.
So it's just an organizationthat's more interested in, or at
least it seems like, is way moreinterested in uh who they think
is going to be the Oscar winnerthan who they the films and
performances and filmmakers thatthey individually want to
spotlight.

SPEAKER_02 (01:17:17):
Yeah, which is why I would argue also that like as a
televised event, it's probablythe um ceremony, I guess, um,
that most people are going to beunenthused about attending.
I, you know, I just feels likethe actors that are there, it's
like because they drew the shortstraw, like, well, who's going
to that?
Well, I guess I have to gobecause I drew the short straw.

SPEAKER_00 (01:17:36):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (01:17:36):
Um, they all don't look very uh enthusiastic about
being there and just receivingthis like it's an awkward
ceremony.
It's it's a very awkwardceremony.
It's cringe every time they say,and we get this, we get we
predict the Oscar winning herenine times out of ten.
I just think it's like uh it's anice game to play, you know,
online and discuss, but I don'tthink you have to have a whole
award ceremony for that.

(01:17:56):
Right.

SPEAKER_00 (01:17:56):
And then you also see these members on social
media see, you know, releasingtheir ballot and and showing
their ballot and showing film.
Sometimes they do, and sometimesthey show like films and
filmmakers that they werepassionate about spotlighting,
and you have interesting picks,but then the Crick's Choice
Award nominations come out andall that ingenuity and all that
originality goes out the window.

(01:18:17):
It's kind of fascinating becauseI guess in bulk, yes, they're
just more interested in Oscars.

SPEAKER_02 (01:18:21):
Yeah, like when the system gets a hold of your very
individualistic ballot, it willonly keep what serves the
system, if that if that kind ofmakes sense.
That's what it feels like, yeah.
So, yeah.
Um, so we'll write something upreally quickly about that.
We'll see what happens.
Um, and then I guess the lastcouple of things to mention
before we get into our our ourdeep dive into the Golden Globes
is um Morning Supreme finallycame out, got first batch of

(01:18:43):
critics.
They're all very excited.
Um, looks like a surefirecontender.
We'll do a whole awards profileon it when we watch it.
Hopefully, we can watch it thismonth at some point.
Um, but certainly it's it'sstarting off like gangbusters, a
lot of enthusiasm.
Obviously, there's a few peoplewho aren't a fan, and some
people who think it's you knowjust all right, but the vast
majority do like the film anincredible amount, and it looks

(01:19:04):
like it's certainly going to bea difficult vehicle to stop for
Timothy Chalamet.

SPEAKER_00 (01:19:08):
And we also think that it's as it stands right
now, uh positioning itself to bea film that even breaks double
digits when it gets nominations.
One of the bigger A24 films,which uh would make sense for
the kind of A24 period piece.
Right.
You know, the Brutalists kind ofplayed that card last year and
got 10 nominations.
Um, they tend to do well belowthe line when their films deal

(01:19:30):
with, you know, period pieces.
Um, and so with this kind of uhWeeze Raves, it's very, it's
getting very, very possible tosee this film break double
digits.

SPEAKER_02 (01:19:39):
Yeah, I'm excited to see it so that we can do a
deeper dive into like we knowwhat categories we see it
specifically playing out in.
There are certainly fans of uhKevin O'Leary for the film, but
you know, Gwyneth Powtrill hasher fans, Odessa has her fans.
We're gonna look at the text.
Um, Jerry'cause Kanji is doingsome uh the lensing, um, but
we're big uh uh Jack Fisk fans.

(01:20:00):
And he's doing the productiondesign.
We'll talk about the costumesand the score, but I know the
score is sort of anachronistic.
So we'll do a whole awardsprofile when we see it.
But suffice it to say, it'sdoing really well so far.
Certainly feels like a top fivemovie.
And I can only imagine the boxoffice sort of pushing it into
possibly being a top two movie.
Speaking of box office,Sentimental Value is doing well

(01:20:21):
at the box office.
Hamnet is doing great at the boxoffice.
Nothing is gonna make any filmother than One Battle a bigger
contender than making somereally good, good money at the
box office.
But then the other news I'll sayis that Avatar Fire and Ash
finally screened, getting somefirst social media reactions, no
official word yet.

(01:20:41):
But it does feel like we're infor a little bit more of the
same in terms of Avatar the Wayof Water, um, and not
necessarily Avatar from 2009,which was had this huge moment,
even for critics, because justthe arrival of that technology
was just groundbreaking.
Um, but it does feel like thereare fans of the film, um, some

(01:21:02):
some people who are certainlynot fans of the film, um, some
people who feel it's bogged downby the characters and the story,
and it's not um very uh rich ororiginal or or profound.
Um everyone loves the visuals,and everyone, you know, is
quoting it as cinematic becauseof the visuals.

(01:21:22):
Um, we'll again do anotherawards profile, hopefully try to
see it a little bit earlier thanwhen it finally releases.
Um, but it certainly feels likewe're more in the range of sort
of uh, you know, um, I wouldactually say more in the range
of the wicked for goodterritory, which is what's
really gonna determine whetherthis film can go the distance is
how much money it can actuallymake.

(01:21:44):
And how how positive do thesereviews lean?
Is is it gonna be in the 60s onMetacritic or is it gonna go as
low as uh 55 or 58, um likeWicked?
Um, what's the Rebana Tomatoscore gonna be like?
And what are audiences gonnafeel like?
If audiences come out and theyfeel like, you know, it was
worth the wait and it's betterthan the first one, better than

(01:22:04):
the second one, you know, thatmay have a little bit of a
difference.

SPEAKER_00 (01:22:07):
Right.
And I just think that, you know,we mentioned in the last episode
when we were talking aboutWicked that if there's a reality
where these big uh releases likeWicked Part 2 and Avatar Three
don't are not convincing enoughon a on a you know critically
for voters, and it's just not afilm that is as successful as

(01:22:30):
the previous iteration, that Ipersonally feel like they would
opt to leave them both off thelist and put films like Train
Dreams, you know, and otherstrong contenders in their
place.
Yeah.
Because I'm not sure they'regonna feel so forced to
highlight a film that theythought was truly mediocre for

(01:22:50):
Best Picture, even with 10spots, I think they would find
something that they thought wasat least a bit above mediocre.

SPEAKER_02 (01:22:56):
And I think we've had this conversation, and
again, maybe when we do theawards profile for Avatar, we'll
we'll revisit it.
But there's plenty of, you know,well-received popcorn films that
could very much surprise.
And so, like if Avatar Fire andAsh is in the same vicinity as
Wicked for Good, don't besurprised if you see a
resurgence for F1, right?

(01:23:16):
Right, which was a little bitmore liked by critics, bit of a
simple movie, but it you knowworks the formula well.
Was a summer movie, Apple's mostsuccessful.
Plan B is on that, you know.
So it's it's you know, peoplewant to see plan B succeed for
independence.
Weapons.
Um, weapons is another one, andso like there's there's enough

(01:23:37):
spectacle where if that's whatwe want, and I'm not too nuts
about you know, a second chapteror a third chapter, they have
places to go, and so don't besurprised by that, right?
So finally, let's get into ourdeep dive into the golden
globes.
Let's start talking about goldenglobe predictions, what it could
mean, who's ahead.
Um, and we're actually gonna dothis in a counterintuitive

(01:23:58):
fashion, maybe, and let's goahead and start with the biggest
categories.
And why don't we start with bestpicture, comedy, or musical?
What are you thinking?

SPEAKER_00 (01:24:08):
Okay, so for our predictions, uh, there are a few
locks here.
So one about after another,obviously, is a lock, so is
Marty Supreme, and then I thinkit gets interesting.
Um for our predictions, we'reputting J.
Kelly, Wicked for Good, Bugonia,and Wake Up Deadman.

(01:24:30):
And our spoiler is gonna be thetestament of An Lee.
Now, on paper, this seems like apretty sound list.
I have some reservations.
Um especially when it comes tothis idea of sequels
continuations.
If you look at Golden Globehistory, there tends to be

(01:24:51):
diminishing returns.
That was true for Dune.
That was certainly true fromAvatar that got four nominations
the first time around and thenwent to two nominations.
Um, that was even true of uhKnives Out, which went from
three nominations to twonominations um for Glass Onion.
And so here we have acontinuation in Wicked for Good

(01:25:13):
and a continuation in Wake UpDead Man.
And if history holds, they bothshould get less nominations than
they got the last time.
And so let's start with Wicked.
Popular consensus is that'sgonna do really well here at the
Globes.
The first one did well enoughand got four nominations, with
including that you know,popcorn, best popcorn movie
thing.
I don't know if they're doingthat this year or not.

(01:25:35):
Um, so if we're following thetrends, they should get less
than four nominations, and thatputs us in a little bit of
difficult terrain because Ithink Wicked for Good stands an
excellent shot of beingnominated for original song.
So there goes one of itspossible, let's let's say three
nominations.
Um, and you still have toconsider, you know, repeat

(01:25:56):
nominations for uh Cynthia, forAriana.
So will it kind of beat the ruleand get end up getting um four
nominations again, includingsong this time instead of
popcorn film?
Um, I'm not sure.
You know, is there a possibilitywhere it only gets nominated for
two performances and a song, orone of the performances gets

(01:26:17):
nominated and a song and pictureand one of the other
performances gets snubbed?
I don't know.
Um, I'm not sure that we'rebrave enough right now to not
predict it for best comedy ormusical, but it's certainly
something to think about.
Uh, that, you know, followingthese thread these trends, it
should get less nominations thanit got last time.
Especially if we're talkingabout a movie that, again, on a

(01:26:38):
critical level, um uh was a stepdown, uh, had disappointing
critics, and also on a financiallevel, I mean, if we're reading
the box offers results as ofnow, it doesn't seem like it's
gonna make as much money as thefirst one.
So, where does it stand?
I'm not quite sure.
Wake Up Deadman is the thirditeration now.
This time, last time it waslinear for two.
Uh, I think it was uh bestpicture and best actor in a

(01:27:01):
commoner musical.
This time, technically, if wedon't follow these those
patterns, it would stand to geteven less than that.
So, are we possibly looking atthe scenario where Wake Up
Deadman gets a shocking snub andget and does not get nominated
for best commoner musical andmaybe only gets nominated for a
performance?
Um, maybe Joshua Connor or maybeDaniel Craig again.

(01:27:21):
Um, it's a question mark tothink about.
Um Begonia, you know, were theyreally hiring Begonia or were
they not?
Um is Begonia on paper seemslike the kind of film that would
do well here at the Globes.
At the same time, I can easilysee it being uh sidelined, uh,
because it's not one of Yorko'sbig films, and those films that,

(01:27:43):
you know, it's not the favorite,it's not poor things, those
films that tend to be, you know,in the eyes of these Golden
Globe voters as lesser Yorgosthat tend to have less
nominations.
Um, so it's also a questionmark.
The Testament of An Lee's arespoiler, as we've been noting in
this episode.
I think that's a film thatstands to be polarizing.
So it would make sense for it tonot get in here for best comedy

(01:28:05):
or musical.
Um, yeah, what do you think?

SPEAKER_02 (01:28:08):
I mean, I think I think we got a strong lineup,
and I I like a lot of the filmsthat you said.
It looks like a very completelist.
I mean, these are the GoldenGlobes we're talking about, so
there are certainly movies thathave to do well here that were
designed to do well.
Um, and I think the globes mostof the time take the bait on
that, and when they don't, Ithink it's important and
revealing.
Um, that being said, I do think,you know, maybe a weak spot here

(01:28:34):
is that we have Netflix twicebecause we got Jay Kelly and
Wake Up Dead Man.
It's tough to decide betweenthem, right?
If maybe one of them getssnubbed.
Um, but for example, the oddsare that we're gonna see a
focused features movie.
We've got Bugonia.
Could it be Songsung Blue?
Uh Dolomite is my name wasnominated here from Craig Brewer

(01:28:54):
um back in 2019.
And we also have two searchlightmovies up for the award Rental
Family and the Testament of AnLee.
Are we right in saying thatneither of them get in?
Especially when this category isalso pretty light on films made
or directed by um femaledirectors.
Um, and you know, I do thinkthat the Golden Globe should try

(01:29:15):
to be more inclusive, so thatmay be something that catches
their eye.
And so, watch out for maybe, aswe said, Testament of An Lee to
uh spoil the the nomination forone of those films that we
listed.
Um, they were really big on theBrutalist, they really liked the
Brutalist, and so Testament ofAn Lee is just as ambitious.
Um, and we know they like AmandaSafe Reading also.

(01:29:36):
Maybe slightly more, maybe morepolarizing.
We know they like Amanda SafeReed, she's a Golden Globe
winner for um the dropout.
Um, but so I think it's a solidlist.
I think it it's interesting alsobecause um Netflix rarely misses
here, so I do think between JayKelly and Wake Up Dead Man, at
least one of them should get in.
Um, but yeah, I mean don't besurprised um, you know, to see

(01:29:59):
Song Sung Blue, Rental Family,as we said, um No Other Choice
could maybe make a splash herefrom Neon.
Right.

SPEAKER_00 (01:30:07):
Um Kiss of the Spider Woman from Bill Condon is
kind of the thing that theywould they would like to on
paper, on paper, they would loveKiss of Spider Woman and would
get nominated for severalthings, but we're guessing that
the box office is gonna affectits chances.

SPEAKER_02 (01:30:20):
Um sorry, baby.
Um and Pillion.
You kind of mentioned Pillion.

SPEAKER_00 (01:30:24):
Yes, Pillion on paper also sounds like the kind
of thing the Golden Globes woulddefinitely go all in for.
I yeah, I I love it as I've saidalready many times.
Um, but again, I just I wonderif they've seen if they've seen
it, if it can compete with theother A24 noise.
I mean, Marty Supreme is alreadyin this category for A24, so I
don't know if Pillion will endup having to get the shortened

(01:30:46):
of the stick, but certainly it'ssomething the Golden Globes
would like.

SPEAKER_02 (01:30:49):
I I do like that like Pillion sort of brings a
little bit of you know, um, thatEuropean English factor, which
would be kind of nice to seehere and something that they
definitely like to do.
Um, I do think that a movie likeBegonia, for example, like Kiss
of Spider Woman, I think both ofthose films were designed to do
well at the Golden Globes.
So they should do well here insome capacity, you know what I

(01:31:11):
mean?
And I think that's why we'vesided with Begonia, even if it
is a little bit of a harsherYorgos film.
Um and The Lobster, for example,did not get nominated here.
Poor Things Did from Yorgos, andso did um The Favor.
Um, Kinds of Kindness got aperformance.
Um, The Lobster got aperformance.
There's very much a realitywhere this is just a performance

(01:31:33):
movie, right?
Right.
But but since we do think thatfocus has to get in here with
between those two movies, Ithink we'd rather see begonia or
a song song blue.
Songsung blue, just because ofthe subject matter.
Right.
All right, so then um, what areyou thinking for uh best actor
in a comedy or musical?

SPEAKER_00 (01:31:48):
Okay, for best actor, comedy, comedy, or
musical, we have some some lockshere.
We have uh obviously TimothyChalamet, Marty Supreme, gunning
to women's category, LeoDiCaprio for one battle after
another, Ethan Hawk for BlueMoon, and George Clooney for Jay
Kelly.
I think we can safely count onthose.
Then it gets uh a little bitinteresting.
The last two spots.

(01:32:09):
I mean, uh possibly the finitionscheme, um, Benny Silotoro, but
he already has one battle.
Brendan Fraser is there forRental Family, even though I
think he and the Golden Globesdon't get along too well, so I
don't expect a nomination there.
Um, the actor from Pillion,again, how how widely seen is
that film going to be seen?
Um, Daniel Craya, could he get athird nomination for the Knives

(01:32:32):
Out franchise?
Again, there should bediminishing returns, and we're
betting that he will not benominated.
Uh, Channing Tatum has nevergotten a Golden Globe
nomination, as odd as thatsounds, and this would be an
opportune moment.
Um, but I don't know.
I feel like Roofman is kind ofquiet right now.
And then there's Bogonia, whichmakes perfect sense here for
Jesse Plemens, except he justgot nominated last year for

(01:32:54):
another Yorgos film, uh Kinds ofKindness.
So maybe the Globes are gonnafeel like they'd rather make
some room for some othercontenders, which leaves us with
three other people, I think.
And that is um Hugh Jackman forSongsong Blue.
Um, I we fully expect KateHudson to get in here in the

(01:33:14):
best actress comedy or musical,and it would make sense for her
and Hugh Jackman to get in as apair.
They love Hugh Jackman, so watchout for him.
But we're actually betting thatthe last two spots will go to uh
uh to well one foreignperformance, uh Lee Byeon Yun in
No Other Choice, um, which Ithink would be the first Asian

(01:33:34):
actor to be included in thisbest actor comedy or musical
category, which is really uhinteresting.
Um, and also might be the firstforeign language performance in
this category, full stop.
Um, could that be a reason whyit might not happen?
Because it's just a pattern inthis category, possibly.
Um, but since the globes aretrying to be more inclusive,

(01:33:55):
we're betting that it mighthappen.
And we're also gonna bet onTonya 2 for Kiss of the Spider
Woman.
Obviously, Kiss of the SpiderWoman uh has a big hurdle
because of the box officeperformance.
But Tonya 2, this is the kind offilm that Golden Globes would
absolutely like if they were tosee it.
Um, it has the Razzle Dazzlethat they will respond to.
They've responded to BillConan's films in the past.

(01:34:18):
Um, and uh it feels like this isan adequate spot to spotlight
the film because they do lovenew talent, they do love
spotlighting new talent.
It would also give them somemore representation here because
Tony Tiu is a queer actor.
Um, he's a Latino.
There's not that many Latinos inthe awards conversation, period.

(01:34:38):
And so that's an opportunity tospotlight him.
Um, and so we're gonna bet forthose last two spots is Lee
Bianun and Tony Tiu.

SPEAKER_02 (01:34:47):
I mean, I think if there's anything that could work
against either of those uh twoactors getting it, is you know,
the globes very much operate ina way where because they're a
televised event, a majortelevised event, um, you know,
the goal is to get viewership.
And so oftentimes what you'llsee is the Golden Globes,
whenever possible, put as manyfaces and marquee names in a

(01:35:10):
category.
And if that is the case, um, youknow, that gives an edge to Hugh
Jackman, that gives an edge toChanning Tatum, um, Channing
Tatum because he's never beenthere, uh, Hugh Jackman because
he's he's usually there.
Um, I also think that it helpsHugh Jackman in the sense that
if Kate Hudson does get in, thething that makes the most sense

(01:35:31):
is a pair, you know, and that'ssomething that works uh against,
for example, Lee Bian, who'd beby himself.
Right.
Um, and so I I I'd watch out forthat.
Um, but yeah, I think that'swhat we're the other thing I'd
probably say is, you know,Daniel Craig beyond diminishing
returns, you know, he's if hegets nominated for Wake Up
Deadman, he's been in everysingle, he's got a nominated for

(01:35:52):
every single one in the series.
So it'd be his third consecutiveum nomination for playing Benoit
Blanc.
Um, but also he just he's comingoff a nomination last year for
queer.
And so that's probably anotherreason to keep him off, and one
more reason to just nominateKnives Owl for one award, and
that's it, if our theory iscorrect.
Um and maybe this year they'lljust you know um, you know,

(01:36:14):
shelf that theory.
Um and the other thing I'll sayis um I actually don't know, I'm
not all that confident about howum the Golden Globes are gonna
feel about nominating a verybrief performance from Veniso de
Toro in one battle afteranother.
And so be careful that theydon't decide to instead nominate

(01:36:35):
him here for finishing scheme.
Um Vinisso's actually only everbeen nominated for one Golden
Globe, um, which he won fortraffic.
It's kind of mind-boggling thathe's never been back, which
makes it all the more reason,you know, why he should be back
this year.
But do not be shocked if theyleave him out of supporting
actor in favor of another nameand they find room for him in

(01:36:58):
actor, only because you knowthis organization tends to frown
upon roles that are extremelybrief.

SPEAKER_00 (01:37:04):
Right.
Yeah.
Right.
But for now we're going withTimothy Chalamet, Leo DiCaprio,
Ethan Hawke, George Clooney, LeeByong-un, and Tony Chu.
Um, for actress, comedy, ormusical, this one's kind of more
of an interesting category.
Doesn't feel like too manypeople in this category are 100%
safe.
We could be uh surprised withsome inclusions.

(01:37:26):
Right now, I would say that umKate Hudson, we were just
talking about her for Song SwingBlue.
She's gotten the best ink out ofthe movie, even if the movie
overall hasn't really uh gottengood critics.
Right now, it's pretty it's inthe 50s on Metacritic.
We don't expect it to be youknow green at the end of the
day.
We could be wrong.

(01:37:47):
And this is coming off the heelsof you know Hugh Jackman's shout
out of the Gotham's Kate Hatsand was gonna win the Oscar.
Yeah, we'll see if thatmaterializes or not.
That was very bold.
But I think with six spots, wehave a good opportunity we have
a good shot of seeing uh ChaseInfinity land here for one
battle after another, which is asort of star-making uh role,
star-making performance.

(01:38:07):
Certainly, there should beenough room for um Rose Byrne
for if I had legs, I'd kick you.
Um, Emma Stone is probably afavorite to get in here for
Bogonia, even though she justwon for poor things, another
Yorgor's vehicle.
But if they might respect thecommitment she's making as an
actor, shaving her head, it'setc.
Um, and Amanda Seyfried for theTestament Van Lee should easily

(01:38:30):
land here unless the film ismaybe too polarizing and we get
a shock snow, but I doubt ithappens.
At least I can see Amandagetting in, and again, nothing
else.
Um, but I feel pretty good abouther getting in.
And then there's the situationwith Wicked.
You know, is there gonna bediminishing returns for Wicked?
If there is, where are we gonnasee it?
Are we gonna see it in a snufffor picture?
Are we gonna see it in a snufffor one of the actings?

(01:38:51):
Um, you know, we we still haveyet to know to to figure out
what's gonna happen there, butwe can at least, it seems like
the smart money would be not tobet against them spotlighting
both performances.
I think it would be odd for theGolden Globes to nominate one
performance and not the other,so that's also a complication.
Um, Cynthia Rebel has also beennominated here um already with

(01:39:13):
Harriet in the drama category,and I think she can high for
song that year as well.
Um, and uh Wicked.
So she already has two actingnominations.
Um, considering that there's sixspots and some of her
competitors are on you know whatthey would consider lesser
films, maybe she maybe can'tmiss here.
I don't know.
Um, certainly the people to lookout for us, uh the biggest

(01:39:35):
spoiler might be Gene Squid forEleanor the Great, uh the
Scarlett Johansson uh debut,which again was met kind of
muted by critics, um, certainlymixed.
Um, and uh she would be theoldest nominee, I believe,
possibly, if she were to getnominated for the Oscar.
Um, I think it sucks that thefilm didn't wasn't a better

(01:39:58):
horse, because I think in thisreally Kind of weird actress
race, I think she would have hada real shot.
You know, imagine if uh uhEleanor the Great was uh Felma
somehow, you know, in this kindof year, I think she would have
uh a bigger opportunity.
And then other people to lookout for is uh Dakota Johnson,
Dakota Johnson for Materialist.
That feels like a total GoldenGlobe nominee.

(01:40:19):
Um, so it's kind of weirdleaving her out for me
personally.
Um, there's Emma Mackey for EllaMcKay, and there's Eva Victor
for sorry baby.
Um, all of them I can't, Ithink, are just at the periphery
because of the of the othercontenders ahead of them.
But I think we're gonna go withAmanda Safried, Cynthia Revo,

(01:40:39):
Emma Stone, Rose Byrne, ChaseInfinity, and Kate Hudson.

SPEAKER_02 (01:40:43):
I mean, I think that's I think I I think that's
a solid lineup.
Um, just watch out for JuneSquibb because it would be like
maybe a nomination on behalf ofboth Thalma and Eleanor the
Great.
And we know the Globes love ScarJohansson.
Um, I think you're right.
The the marquee name that youwant on that list is Dakota
Johnson.
Right.
Um exactly, it's a question ofwho you screw over.

(01:41:05):
Um uh Ellen McKay coming outsoon.
Here's the thing of if there isa weak spot in the lineup, I
would I would suggest that it'seither Chase because she's an
unknown name, but because hermovie stands to be that popular,
I actually think the weakestperson in this category, like it

(01:41:26):
or not, might actually be RoseByrne, um, because the movie is
um challenging um and she's byherself um and didn't make any
money.
I kind of see that Emma Stone,like, even if Bugonia gets an
upfront picture, which canhappen, um, I kind of see her
being the solo nominee in aYorgos film, kind of like Jesse
Plemens last year or ColinFarrell in The Lobster.

(01:41:47):
Um, and so like she could havegotten in last year for kinds of
kindness, but they were sort ofof the mind that like we just
gave her the win for poorthings.
Well, now has been a little bitmore time.
And if Jesse got in by himselflast year, you can see Emma
getting in by herself this year.
Um, but I actually think thatjust watch out that they don't
favor Ava Victor and herperformance in Sorry Baby over

(01:42:10):
you know what is kind of agrueling watch in if I had like
that kick you.
So I I'm saying that I wouldn'tbe shocked if if Rose Byrne was
snubbed from this category.

SPEAKER_00 (01:42:20):
Right.
But right now we're predictingthose six, and our spoiler is
June Squid for Eleanor theGreat.
Yeah, exactly.
Okay, well, let's head over tothe other side.
Uh Best Drama.
What do you have for what whatare we predicting for best
picture drama?

SPEAKER_02 (01:42:32):
Well, for picture drama, it certainly feels like
there are two films that arereally out ahead and they're
gonna fight for the for the win.
Um, the favorite should beHamnet from Focus Features, so
bet on that.
Sinners from Warner Brothersshould be really, really close.
Um, and it's gonna bechallenging um to maybe upset
Chloe Zhao for that win.
Um, then you know the GoldenGlobes have started nominating,

(01:42:53):
have started nominating moreinternational films within Best
Picture, either you know, comedyor musical or drama.
For example, you'll see Anatomyof the Fall and Picture Drama,
you'll see Amelia Perez andPicture Comedy.
And so I think the the favoritethinking is that Jafar Panahi,
because of his narrative,because of the movie, he will

(01:43:14):
land in Best Picture for it wasjust an accident from Neon.
And that sentimental value willland in Best Picture as well.
If there's one weak one betweenthe two, I do wonder if it isn't
sentimental value, even thoughit looks like it could it could
appeal to them a lot.
I just want to remind everyonethat the worst person in the
world was not nominated here forinternational film, and I

(01:43:35):
thought that was interesting.
Um, so nonetheless, I thinkthat's still two films we're
predicting.
It was just an accident,sentimental value, and we have
more or less two open spots.
One of them I think we feelpretty confident in uh Guillermo
del Toro getting in forFrankenstein and that being
Netflix's nominee.
Um, and it just feels like umthe kind of uh Guillermo del

(01:43:59):
Toro film that they'll flock to,with sort of the the narrative
that he's built into it and itbeing a giant passion project.
Um so is it I think it's alittle risky, but we're
predicting it nonetheless.
I think the Netflix um backinghelps it a lot.
Um, other films that you knoware worth considering are, for
example, uh Avatar, Fire andAsh.

(01:44:19):
We know Avatar Way of Water gotin here, um, Picture and
Director, Avatar, the first one,got four, including Picture and
Director, where DiminishingReturns.
Yeah, and one Best PictureDirector.
And so I'm thinking we'rethinking that with diminishing
returns, it should maybe missout here.
Um, that said, you know, theglobes are very much about
pushing, you know, what's um ofthe moment, and so their

(01:44:39):
nominations coming on the heelsof the release of Avatar.
You gotta believe that they wantto nominate Avatar for Best
Picture, and so we're kind ofbetting on diminishing returns,
but that whole theory, you know,it could be shelved this year.
So we'll see what happens.
Um, Riley Cooper does well here.
Is this thing on?
Was um like late in the gameswitched to drama, and you're
gonna have to wonder if that'sgonna pay off.

(01:45:00):
I think it's a little weird thatSearchlight doesn't have a movie
in either comedy or drama, andso you have to you have to think
that they're trying to campaignas hard as they can.
If not, they're gonna, you know,wind up with very little on you
know on Oscar nominations.
Um, weapons uh and F1 are twopopulous films that maybe have
an outside chance.

(01:45:20):
Um, but they the the GoldenGlobes tend to favor something
with a heavier subject matter.
Um, Secret Agent.
Um, unfortunately, there's maybetoo many international films, so
it should suffer because ofthat, which leaves um just a
handful of films that we werereally considering.
Trained Dreams is surging rightnow, but we think it might be
too quiet.

(01:45:41):
And I think we ended up sidingwith Nuremberg, right?
Because of the subject matter,um, because of uh recency bias.
Um, it feels kind of like youknow, those films that were
designed to do well with theGolden Globes, Nuremberg is one
of those.
And I think it's uh veryimportant that it has a pretty
strong showing um here at thisaward show.

(01:46:02):
And so we're sort of peggingSony Picture Classics to get in
here with Nuremberg.
Um I think our spoiler actuallyis gonna be a house of dynamite
because the subject matter againcould give it an edge.
You know, nuclear disarmament,the wide cast that it has.
Catherine Bigelow, I just wantto remind everyone, has never

(01:46:23):
won a Golden Globe.
Remember, she did not win forthe Her Locker, she did not win
for Zero Dark 30, and she gotlisted for both.
Um the Golden Globes are alsotrying to be more inclusive.
Um, and so I think they wouldreally, you know, um like to
have um more female filmmakersum in their lineup in Best
Picture.
And so they have Chloe Zhao, butthe idea that you know they've

(01:46:46):
never given Catherine Bigelowher flowers and that the film is
timely and urgent could reallypush it to being nominated over
Frankenstein, possibly as theNetflix pick, or maybe even
Nuremberg and having Netflix inthere twice.
Um, so that's something to lookout for.
I think it's a it's a spoilerright now.
We have it on the spoiler spot,but I would not be surprised um

(01:47:06):
at all if it shows up.
And again, this is one of thosefilms that I think is designed
to do well at the Golden Globes.

SPEAKER_00 (01:47:14):
Right.
So it's Hamnet, Sinners, it wasjust an accident, sentimental
value, Frankenstein andNuremberg.
Yeah, and the spoilers, Has aDynamax.

SPEAKER_02 (01:47:20):
Exactly.

SPEAKER_00 (01:47:22):
Okay, and actor drama, what do we got?

SPEAKER_02 (01:47:24):
Um actor drama, I think, um, is kind of fun
because a lot of the sure thingsare like in comedy or musical.
And so we have the theory thatthis is one of the most
important races at the GoldenGlobes because we very much
think there's an open spot um atthe Oscars.
Um and open fifth spot, an openfifth spot at the Oscars, and

(01:47:47):
that that spot will likelybenefit the performance that can
double up between a Golden Globenomination and a SAG nomination,
or or whoever wins the GoldenGlobe drama were in not to be
Wagner.
And at this point, every I thinkour our favorite to win this
category is Wagner Mora.

(01:48:07):
If something were to happen andWagner Mora were to not win
this, I think then we're lookingat the possibility of whoever
winning it being strong enoughto fill out the fifth spot,
which is anyone's game rightnow.
Um, and I think the thing aboutWagner Mora that we're worried
about is that, you know,historically, I think in this

(01:48:28):
category, it tends to favor thebest picture nominee.
And so Wagner's biggestcompetition, and who we think is
an absolute lock here, whoshould be a lock here, is
Michael B.
Jordan for Sinners.
Um, he's in a surefire bestpicture nominee, uh, best
picture nominee.
Um, he's never been nominated.
Um, he's had the work, thecaliber of work to get one.

(01:48:49):
He has never gotten one.
So we definitely think he'll benominated this year, and he may
just be the favorite to win.
Um, beyond that, I think whatwe're looking at is a bunch of
performances that had a lot ofbuzz early on, but have sort of
tripped up.
And again, all these films andperformances were designed to
appeal to the Golden Globe.
So, should some of them miss,it's it's a huge red flag.

(01:49:12):
Um, but because there is space,um after Michael B.
Jordan, we should see WagnerMora, and that's more or less a
lock for us.
If Wagner Mora doesn't get inhere, it's it's a major, major
snub.
But we are totally expecting himto get in on the heels of
Fernando Torres, winning BestActress Drama for Brazil for I'm
Still Here, so we're expectingthat to happen.
Um, but after that, um look formovies that sort of tripped up

(01:49:36):
like Jeremy Allen White, DeliverMe From Nowhere.
He should get in here, right?
Um, Dwayne Johnson for thesmashing machine.
If he doesn't at least get aGolden Globe nomination, you
gotta imagine that some of thepeople behind this film are
gonna be incredibly frustrated.

unknown (01:49:50):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (01:49:51):
Um, especially with Marty Supreme um blowing up
right now.
Um, Will Arnett looks like he'spoised to get a nomination for
Is This Thing On with that sortof switch from comedy, which was
packed into drama, which isgreat to see.
Yeah, which is I'm really happyabout that.
Um again, Bradley Cooper doesreally well at the Golden Globe.
So I think this feels like an atminimum nomination.

(01:50:11):
If they don't nominate it, it'dbe very unfortunate.
I know that you're a big fan ofthe performance of the film.
Yes.
Um, and I think who we'repegging for the last spot in
keeping with our best picture,and again, this one maybe feels
a little bit more sure than bestpicture.
I think we're sort of peggingRussell Crowe to get in here for
Nuremberg.
It's a very baity role, it's avery uh kind of showy

(01:50:34):
performance.
Uh, they really like RussellCrowe.
Um, he's won a couple of times,and his movies do well, um, not
just in his own category, but inother categories, bigger
categories.
That's why we're sort of seeingan overlap between Russell and
picture drama.
So that's what we're thinking.
But that leaves out our spoiler,who's again sort of surging
right now, and so we're sort ofgoing against the grain and

(01:50:55):
saying that Joel Edgerton'sperformance might be a little
too quiet in Train Dreams to getin here.

SPEAKER_00 (01:51:01):
Well, he has a Golden Globe nomination for
loving.

SPEAKER_02 (01:51:03):
Yeah, and that's I think that factored into our
reasoning as to why not tonominate him and instead include
someone like Will Arnett, right?
Who doesn't have any GoldenGlobe nominations.
This is this would be WillArnett's first Golden Globe
nomination, right?
Um but it does feel weirdleaving him out.
It does feel weird at the momentto leave him out, but when you
see the film, I do feel like itit may be too quiet of a

(01:51:24):
performance.
And again, loving was kind of aquiet performance too.
Yeah, but I think it'll ithelped that it was based on a
real character and that he had apair because Ruth Nego was
there.
Right.
And in train dreams, he's kindof by himself.

SPEAKER_01 (01:51:36):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (01:51:36):
Um, and so some of the other people that you know
don't be shocked if they show upis um you know, Oscar Isaac for
Frankenstein, um, he's beennominated before.
He's not really the performanceeveryone talks about, but
they're gonna nominateFrankenstein in picture
probably.
Um, they absolutely adore ColinFarrell and Ballad of a Small
Player.
I'm sorry, they love ColinFarrell.
Is that enough to get Ballad ofa Small Player in?

(01:51:58):
I don't think so, but you know,you know, you don't know how far
their loyalty to Colin Farrellcan go.
Um, the biggest one, I think, inmy mind is actually Daniel Day
Lewis for anemone.
So again, we talk about moviesthat were designed to do well at
the Golden Globes.
Daniel DeLewis has always donewell at the Golden Globes, even
for performances that aren'tnominated for Academy Awards.
Um, it's a very, again, verybaby performance of has a lot of

(01:52:21):
meat.
It's the kind of thing thatwould certainly appeal to them.
Uh, I we sort of talked abouthow focused features sort of
designed their campaign to movePaul Mesko into supporting actor
to give him a better shotbecause he had recently been
nomined for Best Actor forAftersom, but it also clears the
way for them to campaign DanielDay Lewis in that sort of you
know headline grabbing uh turnin terms of you know his big

(01:52:44):
screen return after announcinghis retirement and and you know
he's coming back and he's in hisin the film directed by his son,
and so uh if he's gonna show upsomewhere, now would be the
time, and he he would have tosteal one of those spots.
And I think he gets in so oftenthat he's always gonna be
dangerous to take it.

SPEAKER_00 (01:53:05):
Right, no, no, no.
No, I hear you.
So we've got Michael B.
Jordan, Jeremy Allen White,Dwayne Johnson, Wagner Mora,
Will Arnett, and Russell Crowe.
And our spoiler is JoelEdgerton.
And uh actress drama, uh, whatare we thinking?

SPEAKER_02 (01:53:20):
Um, so for actress drama, uh, I think there are a
couple of locks.
We have Jesse Buckley in herefor Hamnet.
Uh, should be yes, um, sort ofthe de facto winner.
Um, she should get in for this.
Um, Renata Vines should get infor sentimental value.
Um, I think those are the twomajor locks.
After that, it's about filling,you know, the rest of the spots

(01:53:41):
with people who we think thatthe globes are gonna like
spotlighting.
And one of the first names thatcame to us was Tessa Thompson
for HETA.
Um, because she had never beennominated, um, and you could
argue she should have been therefor passing.
Um, but also because of therole, right?
The nature of the role andAmazon MGM, they tend to do well
here.
Remember, they got nickel boysin um along with Plan B Amazon

(01:54:04):
MGM.
Um, so they're working on HETA.
So this feels like, again, if ifthey don't get a nomination for
Tessa Thompson here, it feelslike something kind of blew up
in their face.

SPEAKER_00 (01:54:14):
Right.
Well, the thing that might haveblown up in their face, and
we'll talk about it, is that youknow, Amazon's might be all in
on the Julia Roberts getting anomination here for after the
hunt.
So will the Golden Globe votershave to choose between one um
Amazon, uh Amazon MGM spot goingto Tessa Thompson or going to
Julia Roberts?
I think most people would behigh on Julia Roberts, but we

(01:54:37):
think otherwise.

SPEAKER_02 (01:54:38):
Right.
I mean, I think that cancertainly end up being a factor.
Right now, we're sort of leaningto Tessa Thompson because of the
actor, because of the standingof the film, um, because of the
nature of the role.
Also because it's a strongerfilm.
It's a stronger film, just ingeneral.
Um, and also uh plan B is onthis one.
They're not on after the hunt.
So maybe that helps.
Um, then after that, we thoughtthis was maybe again the the

(01:54:58):
nomination that Sydney Sweeneyhas to come out with for
Christy.
Again, like the SmashingMachine.
If after all that effort shedoesn't at least get a Golden
Globe nomination, it's gonna beincredibly frustrating.
So I think uh we we think thatSydney Sweeney will get in.
After that, the list startsthinning out, yeah.
And it's about finding aperformance that we think is
gonna um resonate with voters.

(01:55:20):
Um, some people have beentalking about Julia Roberts
still, but I think our mentalityis that the film is just too
flawed, yeah.
Um, and that they're not gonnaenjoy it.
Um maybe we're wrong.
I mean, Challengers did welllast year, Daniel Craig got in
for queer, but this film is sofar from good that that it would

(01:55:41):
not um shock us at all if Juliadid not get in.
And they've been doing like agood job of like getting Julia
and Luke Guadagnino, you know,tribute-like stuff and sort of
sponsoring awards that they getin into, but I don't know if the
Golden Globes are going to wantto nominate Julia.
That said, you know, the GoldenGlobes do like Julia Roberts a
lot.

SPEAKER_00 (01:56:01):
Yeah.
Um her last solo nomination, youknow, and after the hunt would
be uh a solo nomination.
Her last solo nomination wasactually for duplicity, way back
when.

SPEAKER_02 (01:56:11):
Yeah, so she can do it, she can get in by herself.
It's and it's it's the film'sonly nomination, I think,
Duplicity.
Right.
So that's not unheard of.
Um, but more often than not,they like Julia and her films
enough to nominate them forseveral things, like Sally Field
and her for Steel Magnolias, orher and uh her film for My Best
Friend's Wedding.

(01:56:31):
And so maybe because theyunderstand that it's not a
top-tier Julia film or a uh aJulia co-star that we really
want to nominate, they'llprobably maybe they'll shelve
it.
I'm thinking in 2009, thecompetition wasn't very high, so
that might happen.
Again, the list is very thin, soshe can still crack the top six,
even with Tessa Thompson there.
But um, someone else, forexample, to talk about sort of

(01:56:52):
on the opposite side of thespectrum, is a great performance
from Jennifer Lawrence in Die MyLove, but the film is so far
removed from what they wouldlike.

SPEAKER_00 (01:57:01):
Yeah, I think most people are predicting her
because they think that theGlobes love Jennifer Lawrence,
and that might be true, but thisis her most challenging work
yet.
And I just don't see the GoldenGlobe voters being uh responding
to the film, even though I thinkit's amazing.

SPEAKER_02 (01:57:15):
It would be a huge win because Lynn Ramsey films
traditionally do not do wellhere.
It's an incredible performance,but also again, like if I had
legs, it's going to beincredibly alienating and it's
gonna be a turnoff to a lot ofpeople.
At the same time, we talk aboutthe idea of nominating marquee
people and marquee names.
Jennifer Lawrence has always hadthe name to attract Golden Globe

(01:57:37):
voters.
Right.
She got in pretty recently for2023 for No Heart Feelings,
which I thought was terrible andwhich I thought she was
atrocious on.
Um that said she's still got anomination for actress in a
comedy or musical.
Um, and I think it goes to showyou a solo nomination, so it
goes to show you how powerfulher name is.
The question is, can she do itfor Die My Love?

(01:57:58):
Um, I'm sort of betting thatbecause the nomination was there
for No Hard Feelings, they'rekind of feel like I don't have
to nominate her again, becausethat was literally two years
ago.

SPEAKER_00 (01:58:10):
Um I think they're also gonna choose between you
know these uh maternal uh youknow filmic experiences, you
know, very uh psychological anduh you know confrontational.
They're gonna choose between ifa head legs I kick you or die my
love.
And I think for them at least,uh if I had legs would edge out
die my love by a little bit.

SPEAKER_02 (01:58:31):
Yeah, I I I would agree with that um because of
the nature of the film, butcertainly the name Jennifer
Lawrence is gonna have sometraction.
Um, other people are talkingabout Laura Dern and is this
thing on?
And you know, the Golden Globeshave nominated and awarded Laura
Dern like crazy.
Um we're we aren't predictingWill Arnette to get in there,
and so it would make a goodpair.

(01:58:53):
Um you've seen the film, Ihaven't seen the film yet, and I
I feel like Will has the showierpart.
Yeah.
Um, and I feel like again, hehas the history, the idea that
he's never been nominated.
Um uh actually it's kind offunny because Laura Dern doesn't
have that many Golden Globenominations for her film work.
Right.
So she won for Marriage Story,and I think she has that

(01:59:15):
nomination for Rambling Rosefrom the 90s.
Um, but she doesn't very oftenget in on the film side.
I wonder if Will Arnett cancarry her with him to that
nomination if they both get in.
And I wonder if Bradley Coopercan push this film to a couple
of nominations because of hisname.

SPEAKER_00 (01:59:32):
Yeah, I'm trying to feel even in during this
conversation that that is thisthing always gonna do better
than than people think for this.

SPEAKER_02 (01:59:39):
It would make sense.
Um, it would make sense.
Um, Julia Garner is there forweapons, and they've nominated
Julia Garner before.
Um, but I think we're sort ofsiding with two more quiet
performances.
Um, I think we each havedifferent reasons for maybe
thinking while they'll get in.
I I think one of them is gonnaend up being Lucy Lou for
Rosemead.
Um, I think it just it framesher and A new light, and they

(02:00:01):
understand that it's a kind ofperformance that they're really
they may not get an opportunityto nominate Lucy Lou for that
caliber of work in the upcomingfuture, you know, and that she
you know she does a lot to getyou to appreciate how talented
she is as a performer.
Um, you know, she gets much moredifficult material this time

(02:00:21):
that she's gotten in quite sometime, um, and that'll come out
in December.
Um, the only issue is that it'sfrom a smaller distributor, like
vertical, but it is based on atrue story.
It does have this continued sortof maternal motif that a lot of
these films are dealing with.
Um so I think I think the thatit being based on a true story

(02:00:42):
is gonna give it an edge oversomething like Die My Love, even
if Jennifer Lawrence has theflashier name.
Um, I do think Rosemead is gonnabe an immediately more um a more
uh how do I uh not compellingbut a more inviting view because
it is it is less unorthodox thanDie My Love.

(02:01:02):
Oh, absolutely.
And then you sort of pitch theidea that maybe for that last
bot, instead of someone likeLaura Dern, we might see someone
like Jodie Foster.

SPEAKER_00 (02:01:10):
Jodie Foster in the private life, we have not seen
that film, but we do we we'rebig fans of the filmmaker.
Um, and you know, it just if yousee the trailer, you it's the
kind of film that I can imagineGolden Globe voters
appreciating, and they love JodyFoster.
So if they have an opportunity,and this is also her first, I
think it's her first performancein French.

(02:01:30):
I think first lead.
First, she was in uh that tothat 2007 movie, Very Long
Engagement.
Yes, yes, yes.
Um, and so I think that that'san extra appeal that's gonna
that the film has and theperformance has for the voters.
So I think that she'll get in.
I'm a little bit worried aboutRosemead, especially after
getting snubbed from completelyfrom the Independent Spirit

(02:01:51):
Awards, where it should havelanded.
Um, if it was kind ofresonating, you know, the way
that we were thinking it might.
Um, maybe the small studio of itall is just not, you know, not
giving her that traction thatshe needs.
Um, but right now those are theones we're predicting.

SPEAKER_02 (02:02:07):
I mean, I think also they obviously like Jody Foster
a lot, but I do wonder if it'stoo many nominations for Jody
Foster, you know, recentnominations between Street
Detective and Nyad, and she wonfor the Mauritanian, which she
was great in.
Yeah, that's true.
You know, I do wonder if they'llfeel like I can skip Jody Foster
this time.

SPEAKER_01 (02:02:27):
That's true.

SPEAKER_02 (02:02:27):
Um, and so basically, I think right now
where we're at is our predictedsix are Jesse Buckley and
Hamnet, Renato Ryan SentimentalValue, Tessa Thompson and Heta,
Sidney Sweeney for Christie,Lucy Lou for Rosemead, and Jody
Foster for A Private Life.
And our spoiler is Julia Robertsfor After the Hunt.
Can she can she get in there?
Again, I think this is a mustfor her.

(02:02:49):
Um, this is the the place whereshe's strongest.
Right.

SPEAKER_00 (02:02:51):
And interestingly enough, this would be the first
Golden Globe nomination forJesse Buckley.
Yeah.
Who's never been nominated here.
That's kind of interesting.
That's that's big.

SPEAKER_02 (02:02:59):
Yeah, that's kind of interesting.
And you never know if that mightlevel the playing field.
Because if it is the six thatwe're saying, right, if it is, I
think technically all of thembut Jody Foster are new
nominees.
Right.
Ray Nato's never been nominated,Tessa's never been nominated,
Sydney's never been nominated,and Lucy Lou, I don't think, has

(02:03:19):
a has a an individual nominationat the Golden Globes.
And so watch watch for that tobe a factor if they really want
to pull off an upset somewhere,which I doubt.
She should still be the favoritehere.

SPEAKER_00 (02:03:30):
Okay, now for again, one of the most chaotic
categories this year, and it'ssupporting actress.
Um it's very, a very fluidcategory.
I mean, any and all of thesewomen could be snubbed um for
other contenders.
Don't be surprised.
It's that kind of year, it'sthat kind of category.
And so I would, I would, I wouldrefrain from saying that anyone,

(02:03:53):
and that's crazy, anyone is alock.
Because again, I can easily seeany one of these contenders not
being spotlighted.
But right now, I'm gonna saythat Alfanning has been
nominated, I think, three timesfor her work in um The Great.
Uh, she's never been nominatedin film.
I think that they're gonna likesentimental value.
I think she's gonna get in.

(02:04:13):
Um, I think we looked atsomething interesting, which is
that you know, if you look atthe history of the Willing
Globes, I believe the only timesthat a foreign performance
landed in this category were uhZoe Zaldano in Amelia Perrus,
and I guess if you can countCelina Gomez and Amelia Peres,
and then the two actresses inBabel who both got nominated um,

(02:04:35):
you know, in the same categorythat year.
Um we're feeling that the Globesare going to only nominate one
of the sentimental valueactresses, and that that'll be
all fanning because she has thebigger name and they're more
used to her work and they'rewilling to spotlight her in
film.
Um another one bout afteranother has uh at least two

(02:04:56):
contenders in this category.
But as you were mentioningearlier, um the Golden Globes
tend to look down on you knowvery small, you know,
performances that that that uhhave a small runtime.
So I think that takes ReginaHall out and Teana Taylor's the
showier performance.
So I think that she'll get in asa representative for that film.
They actually really like AmyMadigan, who I think has, I

(02:05:19):
believe, three nominations.
Yeah.
And she already has a GoldenGlobe win, but for her TV work.
Um, and so I definitely expecther to show up here as well.
I know some people are unsure ifshe'll be making these major
precursors.
I think this is one precursorthat you can bank on that Amy
Madigan will get, and that she,if she were to get it, we
mentioned earlier, she'll begunning for the win here.

(02:05:41):
Um I remember her last GoldenGlobe speech.
I believe it was a project thatwas related to uh abortion
rights, and and it was uh animpactful speech.
And if you see that speech, Ithink you can see, I don't know,
you can just see this AmyMadigan train, you know, picking
up more and more steam.
Um I think there's no way thatthey don't nominate Gwyneth

(02:06:02):
Paltro for Marty Supreme.
I mean, she's not a lock, butit's just the kind of thing that
feels it feels like the kind ofthing the Globes would do.
It's a comeback performance anda film that I think stands to do
really well with uh the GoldenGlobe voters.
Uh Gwyneth Paltra hasn't beenback since her performance in
Proof, which I believe was 2006.

SPEAKER_02 (02:06:21):
20 years ago.

SPEAKER_00 (02:06:22):
Um, so you know, she only has that nomination for
Proof, and obviously uh a win, Ibelieve, for Shakespeare in
Love.
So she hasn't been here for awhile, and so uh and also never
in supporting.
So I think they're going torelish the opportunity to
spotlight her for this kind offilm, this kind of comeback in
this kind of category.

(02:06:42):
Um, so I think she's gonna benominated.
And like I said, if we're gonnanominate Cynthia Reval, I don't
see Cynthia getting in and notAriana Grande or vice versa.
Um, again, I I I fully expectthere to be diminishing returns
for Wicked.
We we just don't know in whatshape that's gonna manifest.
Um, or if we're completely wrongand they're not gonna have any
diminishing returns, but theyshould, especially with a uh

(02:07:05):
less well-received film.
Um, but I feel like if there'sone precursor, besides I guess
the criteria choice, where youcan count on possibly Ariana
Grande uh being able to repeatthis nomination, it would be the
Golden Globes um for supportingactress.
And so then that leaves one spotopen.

(02:07:25):
And uh again, we've alreadyspoken about Inga um and and and
why we're not seeing her.
Emily Blunt is there for thesmashing machine, but uh usually
the Golden Globes like tonominate her when her films are
being nominated as a whole.
Um, Dwayne Johnson is, we'repredicting uh we'll get
nominated for drama, but youknow, she was just there for

(02:07:46):
Oppenheimer.
Um and uh again, her films tendto be, you know, have a higher,
higher uh presence in the GoldenGlobes, you know, usually get
nominated for best film.
Um, even her sag-winningperformance in A Quiet Place
wasn't recognized here by theGolden Globes.
Um, so we're thinking that theSmashing Machine Underperforming

(02:08:07):
is going to hurt her, especiallywith you know being spotlighted
by being spotlighted by theGlobe so recently.
Um and then there's uh GlennClose for Wake Up Dead Man.
Uh they have, I don't know if uhanyone uh Anna De Armas was
nominated for the first night'sout, but the nominee was not
nominated.
And again, there should be someform of diminishing returns for

(02:08:28):
Wake Up Dead Man.
And I wonder if there is anominee for Wake Up Deadman that
you know uh breaks through thatit wouldn't be Josh O'Connor
because he had he's had such anamazing year, and because he has
the best performance in thefilm, and uh the Glenn Close has
been nominated for many GoldenGlobes.
That could be a reason why theywelcome her back into this
group, but also another reasonwhy they hold off.

(02:08:50):
Um and uh then you have WumiMosaku for Sinners, who on paper
uh seems like a possible uhperson to bet on.
However, I I worry that you knowthe lack of because she might
not, she's not a a householdname, might be a little further
down on their priority list uhcompared to some of the people

(02:09:10):
that we do have here.
Um maybe, you know, maybe acceptTiana Taylor, but she's in the
presumed front runner.
Um, and then you have what Iwould what I would say is uh the
last two people that werebetween, and that is a
nomination for Nina Haas andHETA um to go along with the
nomination of what we where weare you know pretty feel pretty

(02:09:32):
good about a nomination forTessa Thompson.
That would make perfect sense.
Uh there's some foreign appealthere that the you know
Hollywood Foreign Press mightembrace.
So watch out for Nina Haasgetting in here uh for best
supporting actress and joiningTessa Thompson.
Not a lot of people are talkingabout that, but it's a strict
possibility.
But for that last spot, I thinkthat you and I are going to bet

(02:09:54):
that Jennifer Lopez will get herthird Golden Globe nomination,
possibly, um, for Kiss of theSpider Woman and will join Tonya
2 as a pair uh for Kiss of theSpider Woman.
Again, Kiss of the Spider Womanis a film that they would
absolutely love if you've seenit.
Uh question is that enoughpeople see it, or if it's box

(02:10:14):
office uh fumbles will be adetraction and make the Golden
Globes less uh less uh make makethem feel less urgent to uh want
to spotlight it.
I will say that Tony Chubenefits from there being two
actor categories, so there's alittle bit more space, and then
supporting actors is onecategory, so there's more

(02:10:35):
competition, and that could hurtJennifer Lopez, and Tona Chu
might get in by himself and shemight be left out.
Um, but right Bill Condon filmsdo do well um in in these Golden
Globes, especially musicals.
So right now we're betting thatJennifer Lopez makes that last
spot.
Um, but it'll be uh it'll be afight, I think, between Jennifer

(02:10:57):
and Nina.
Um that's uh so Nina is ourspoiler, and and and we'll see
uh who wins that battle.

SPEAKER_02 (02:11:05):
I think yeah, it's that's really interesting.
The idea that like it may comedown the last spot or two to
whoever can capitalize on theirother actor being there, and so
it's like it's a choice betweenthe pair from Kiss of the Spider
Woman, the pair from HETA, andthe pair from the Smashing
Machine.
Um, and it could end up beingvery close.

(02:11:27):
I do think that the GoldenGlobes in general, our
impression is that they don'tlove to nominate new faces and
unknown faces, especially withso much other possibilities.
And I think that's what hurtsWoon Me, for example.
And I also think that's whathurts Inga.
Um so and I'll expand on that inin supporting actor.
Um, but I think it's it's gonnabe it's gonna be close.

(02:11:50):
And I think it's I would not besurprised if you get to see, for
example, uh Hedda and Kiss ofthe Spider-Woman here, and
instead um you see even someonelike you know even someone like
Taylor Taylor, as as safe as Ithink that she is, maybe she can
be snub because she isn't againas the marquee of a name.

(02:12:10):
I think it's possible.
Um weapons has to be here at theGolden Globe somewhere, and I'm
predicting it to be heresomewhere, and I think the best
place for it to be is with AmyMadigan.
All right, and jumping intosupporting actor, it's actually
interesting because a lot ofwhat you're we're talking about
for supporting actress actuallyoverlaps with supporting actor,
and so through our research, wekind of found you know, double

(02:12:32):
nominees is a popular motif thisyear.
You have two supportingactresses from One Battle, two
supporting actresses fromSentimental Value, two
supporting actresses from MartySupreme, and potentially two
supporting actors from onebattle after another.
And from what we're seeing, it'sincredibly difficult, certainly
in recent history, we can't findit, for a film to double up

(02:12:53):
nominations in a supportingcategory, and for the other
supporting category to also geta film that doubles up
nominations.

SPEAKER_01 (02:13:03):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (02:13:03):
And so what we mean by that is you know, when Amelia
Perez scores a nomination forZoe Zaldana and Selena Gomez at
the Golden Globe for supportingactress, you do not get two uh
actors from the same film um insupporting actor.
Um, when um, for example, TheIrishman scores a nomination for
Joe Pesci and Al Pacino insupporting actor, you don't see

(02:13:26):
one film score two nominationsfor supporting actress.
Um I think the best example wegot was a year like 2022, um,
when Brendan Gleason and BarryKeegan were nominated for
supporting actor for theBanshees of Ina Sharon.
And in supporting actress, yeah,they had every chance to
nominate Jamie Lee Curtis andStephanie Shu for Everything

(02:13:47):
Everywhere All at Once, but theyonly nominated Jamie Lee Curtis.
And so that's the pattern is theidea that the Golden Globes will
try to resist nominating twoactors from Banshees in
Supporting Actor, and then twoactors from Everything
Everywhere All at Once andsupporting actors.
So like we're gonna double uponce but not twice.
Exactly.
They'll double up once but nottwice, and supporting all over

(02:14:07):
you have to sort of decidebetween the the contenders that
I just mentioned the the theactor, the supporting actors in
one battle, the supportingactresses of one battle, the
supporting actresses of Marty,the supporting actresses of
Sentimental, which one is goingto double, which one fares the
best?
And I think we leaned toward theidea of doubling up and
supporting actors seemed likethe most tempting choice.
Yeah.

(02:14:28):
Um, I think we also kind of sawthat when they do double up,
they tend to have there thatthere tend to be actors who have
been nominated before at theGolden Globes or who have a
little bit more of a of adeveloped career at this point.
Uh exactly.
So, for example, when BarryKeegan gets in for Banshees of
Inus Sharon, he already had alittle bit more visibility than

(02:14:50):
Stephanie Shu.
Right.
And so that works againstsomeone like Inga.
Um, that being said, if any ofthese people manage to be
nominated, that that's that's agreat sign.
Um, but we're sort of um leaningtowards supporting actor having
Sean Penn for one battle afteranother and Benito Otaro for one
battle after another.
Um, we definitely feel that StanSkarsgaard will be there for um

(02:15:10):
sentimental value, and um wekind of feel pretty confident
that this is this is onecategory.
Um, well, before that, I'll saythat Hamnet should be there with
Paul Maskell, and that'sactually his first nomination on
the film side, right?

SPEAKER_00 (02:15:24):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (02:15:24):
Um Right.

SPEAKER_00 (02:15:26):
I will say that you know, you see that as a pattern
with the Golden Globes, whereyou know, if uh there was an
actor who got nominated or got asurprise nomination at the
Academy Awards, and somehow theGolden Globes didn't spotlight
them, they'll do a redo, andthey'll, you know, they have the
opportunity to spotlight thatactor, they'll take the
opportunity and do that.
So Paul Masko got into theacademy with After Some, didn't

(02:15:49):
get any Golden Globe love.
Look for this to be, you know,their do-over where they finally
welcome uh Paul Masko.

SPEAKER_02 (02:15:55):
Especially since we kind of thought that he would be
able to get into Best Actor lastyear for Gladiator 2.
Yeah, because Denzel got in forsupporting actor, but they ended
up leaving him off.
So they have every reason tofinally nominate him for his
first Golden Globe on the filmside here.
And so you have uh SteinSkarsgard for Sentimental Value,
Paul Masko for Hamnet, Sean Pennone battle after another, Benito

(02:16:17):
del Toro, one battle afteranother, especially because
again, Benicio hasn't beennominated since his win in uh
2000 for traffic that leaves youtwo spots, and I think we feel
pretty confident um about thelast two, but it's gonna be
tight, and so we think JacobBellorthi should get in here for
Frankenstein, yeah.
Between Frankenstein being abest picture nominee, um, him

(02:16:40):
having the most scene-stealingperformance there, but also he's
the kind of again marquee actor,marquee name that you know
they're sort of chomping on thebit to finally nominate.
Not only uh young talent thatthey want to spotlight, exactly
young talent they want tospotlight.
And I think they they're alsofans of the films that he's made
in the past.
So, like Saltburn was a doubleglobe nominee, Priscilla was a

(02:17:03):
golden globe nominee.
So they definitely have beenseeing him in sort of standout
films for a while.
Um, he'll finally be hopefullyin a best picture nominee, and
so he stands a great chance ofbeing nominated here.
After Jacob, um, you actuallyhave another Netflix movie that
I think is in great position tobe nominated here, which is Adam
Sandler for Jake Kelly.

(02:17:24):
He has the role, it's verybaity.
Um, we're saying Jay Kelly isgonna go over well with the
Golden Globes.
I think we kind of are inagreement that this is a movie
that was designed to do reallywell at the Golden Globes, so it
should you know get majornominations, and we're sort of
pegging Best Picture.
We think George Clooney's gonnaget in.
It's a it makes a good pair forAdam to get in there.

(02:17:46):
Adam has been nominated beforefor um uh punch the glove,
right?
So funnily enough, uh uh PaulThomas Anderson would be there
this year as well.
Um, but I don't think he'sactually been nominated since.
I think he got a nomination forhis stand-up, but he hasn't been
nominated on the film side.
So uncut gems, he got snuff foruncover gems.
So you kind of have to figurethat they're really anxious to

(02:18:08):
nominate him again.
Um, and I think this is the one.
Um, so I think the six thatwe're predicting right now are
Stellin Skarsgard andSentimental Value, Paul Masco
and Hamnet, Sean Penn in onebattle after another, Benicio
del Toro in one battle afteranother, Jacob Bellordi in
Frankenstein, and Adam Sandlerfor Jay Kelly.
Our spoiler actually is gonnaend up being Alexander Skarsgard

(02:18:32):
in Pillion.
Right.
Because we do feel like if theywere to see the film, it would
be the kind of film that theyrespond to.
Yeah, and again, it's anothermarquee name.
It's sort of a role that maybeyou did not expect him to take,
right?
Um, because I mean you can speakmore to it than I can, but you
know, I think it's you knowsexually charged, but you know,

(02:18:53):
it's a queer role, and I thinkthat those are things that they
may actually really like.

SPEAKER_00 (02:18:57):
Yeah, I think that they'll like the the headline of
you know, daddy and son in thesame category.
Yes, you know, dad and son, um,apologies.
Uh and uh uh so that might besomething that they're attracted
to.

SPEAKER_02 (02:19:11):
Yeah, even though it'll take like the whole nepo
narrative to like a wholenother.
I think the host is NikkiGlazing.
So Nikki, I think, is gonna haveI think a lot of fun with that
movie, but she would have a lotof fun with those pair of
nominations also.
So watch for that to happen.
Other other names that were sortof circulating in our mind.
Again, if Kiss of Spider Womanum pulls off a nomination for

(02:19:31):
Tonya 2, don't be surprised ifthe pair that gets in might be
Diego Luna, um, or if the filmgoes over in a big way, it could
be Diego Luna.
Again, this is a film that wasdesigned to do well at the
Golden Globes, and really thebox office really changes
trajectory.
But the movie in and of itselfwould traditionally play well
there.
Um, Delroy Lindo has never beenon for a Golden Globe, and he's

(02:19:55):
in centers, it's a surefire bestpicture nominee.
They might finally take.
Take advantage and nominate him.
And sometimes they can nominatelike films with like brief
roles, and Daryl Lindo doesn'thave a lot of time.
Um, but he has some comedicrelief.
I remember when they nominatedWilliam H.
Macy for Seabiscuit.
Um, so it's like it's not out ofcharacter for them to say, I
just want to take advantage thatDarryl Lindo is um is up for an

(02:20:20):
award.
I mean, I think again, like theBenicio one battle, the thing
that hurts them is the screentime.
And usually when these actors dodouble up, this is where we're
sort of being risky.
When they do double up, thescreen time is significant,
right?
And so, like, I think Beniciohas less screen time than Barry
Keegan in Banshee ZavinerSharon.
He might even have less screentime than Jamie Lee Curtis in

(02:20:42):
Everything Everywhere All atOnce.
And that may be a factor as towhy they decide to to give their
their double nominee, the doublenomination for a movie to
someone in the supporting actorscategory.
So look out for that.
Um, but again, Del Rolendodoesn't have a huge amount of
time, but just the idea thatthey've passed him over so
often, um, the five bloods was abig one, um, may make them sort

(02:21:05):
of say, I I really want tospotlight him finally.
Um, and then two performancesthat we do think would appeal to
voters.
Um Josh O'Connor had an amazingyear, right?
And if there's one performancethat you would think is gonna
stand out from that film, theactual performance, it would be
Josh O'Connor's.

(02:21:26):
Yeah, and it would be a greatway to sort of recognize the
year he's had.
And again, he's someone that youcan only imagine that they're
desperate to nominate.
I remember I was kind ofsurprised they didn't nominate
him last year for Challenger.
Right, right.
I thought it was the opportunemoment.
Um, so watch out for him tomaybe make a surprise and be the
only nomination for Wake Up DeadMan.
Or because again, we talkedabout diminishing returns.

(02:21:47):
Um, or maybe he can join thefilm and just be those two
nominations, the film andsupporting actor.
I I will say that I think hewould have had an amazingly
better chance had they moved himup to best actor.
He should be the lead.
And he is very much the lead inthe film.
So this was a mistake.
That being said, like if he evergains any traction to actually

(02:22:08):
be nominated, it's gonna beeasier to nominate him and
supporting actor than lead,maybe that could happen.
Um, it'd also be funny becauseif he did get an eye on
supporting actor, he wasactually a co-star of Paul Mesko
in the history of sound earlierthis year.
So that's kind of funny.
Um, and then the the role that Ithink is kind of baity, um, that
could get in, especially if ithas a good day for its lead and
in film, is Michael Shannon inNuremberg.

(02:22:30):
Um and Michael Shannon, I think,has a couple of different
projects, and he might benominated on the TV side with
his miniseries.
But it's kind of funny that heactually only has one Golden
Globe nomination to this point.
Remember, he got passed over forNocturnal Animals in favor of
his co-star, and he ended upgetting the Oscar nomination
anyway.
And when Leo DiCaprio and KateWinsley were being nominated for

(02:22:52):
Revolutionary Road, along withBest Picture, they did overlook
Michael Shannon, and he was theonly actor to get into an Oscar
nomination from that film.
Um, so I do think he's an actorof tremendous reputation and
tremendous uh uh esteem amonghis colleagues, and so I
wouldn't be surprised if theGolden Globes take advantage to
sort of catch up a little bitwith their own nominations for

(02:23:13):
him, because at this point hejust has a nomination for 99
Homes, right, for which he waseventually snubbed for.
And this time with Nuremberg, hecould potentially be in there
with his co-star, Russell Crowe,and with the film and drama
series.
Right.
I'm sorry, excuse me, uh dramafilm.

SPEAKER_00 (02:23:27):
Right.
And so the predictions are uhStan Skarsgaard, Paul Meskell,
Sean Penn, Peniso del Toro,Jacob Alordi, and Adam Sandler.
And the spoiler is AlexanderSkarsgaard for Pillion.
Okay, for best director, Ireally feel like the best
director race in general for theOscars is down to six

(02:23:47):
contenders, and that's uh PaulThomas Anderson, Chloe Zhao, uh
Josh Safty, Jafar Panahi, umJoachim Trier, and Ryan Kugler.
Now, you know, I was tempted atleast to make those six, the six
nominees for the Golden Globes.
However, rarely do you know thefive directors uh for the Golden

(02:24:12):
Globes show up uh in the bestdirector category, especially
especially uh as of laterecently, when they're trying to
be more inclusive.
They've been also uh trying toinclude more female filmmakers
in this category.
So I think the safest people areuh Paul Thomas Anderson for one
bat after another and Chloe Zhaofor Hamnet and Ryan Kugler for
Sinners, and certainly JafarPanahi for it was just an

(02:24:34):
accident.
I think those last two spots arewhere the interesting things
might happen.
And right now, we think thatMarty Supreme is going to be a
big thing for the Golden Globesand is uh stands to do really
well here.
So we're expecting Josh Safty toget his first nomination as a
director here for Marty Supremeand that last spot.
Instead of going to uh JoachimTrier for Sentimental Value, who

(02:24:57):
again was not nominated, uh hisfilm was a nominated uh worst
person in the world in 2021.
They might just be okaynominating him in possibly the
screenplay category.
So we took him out and we put inanother female filmmaker in his
place.
And I think the person that wewere most attracted to for the
spot was actually Mona Fasfoldfor directing the testament of

(02:25:21):
Ann Lee.
As we've been saying, it isgonna be sort of a polarizing
film, but I think that the uhGolden Globe voters are going to
certainly appreciate the scopeof the project, the ambition of
the project.
Brady Brady Corbet wasnominated, nominated here last
year.
I think he he won the categoryfor best director.
Um, and so we feel that the uhsecond female director spot uh

(02:25:45):
is gonna go to Mona Fastwald forthe testament of Anne Lee.
And our spoiler would be anotherfemale filmmaker, uh, who, as
you said, has never won a goldenglobe, and that would be
Catherine Bigelow for the HouseHouse of Dynamite.
Um, other people that weconsidered were uh uh Gimbal Del
Toro for Frankenstein, um, buthe's been here a few times.
Uh James Cameron was here forThe Way of Water last in 2022.

(02:26:10):
Uh Avatar The Way of Water theWay of Water, there should be
Diminishing Returns.
Uh Noel Bombach for Jay Kelly.
I think that film tends to dowell at the Golden Globes, but
I'm not sure well enough forNoel Bombach to get an eye for
Best Director, who again hasnever been nominated for Best
Director, interestingly enough.
Kleber Fielo for The SecretAgent.
Um, I'm still unsure how wellthat film was going to do.

(02:26:33):
Um, but I I just don't think ithas, I guess, the accessibility
point that a film like Um I'mStill Here has, and that film
couldn't manage a best directornomination here.
Um, and then we have uh ParchangWuk for No Other Choice.
Again, I'm not sure that filmwill transcend possibly a uh
foreign language filmnomination, and a film that's

(02:26:54):
rising, uh Train Dreams.
And uh Clint the director, ClintVan Lee, can certainly benefit
from that.
So those are the people that wewere in between.
Again, I do feel like this is asix uh you know, six-man horse
race.
Um, but we're trying to includeuh you know, for to fit the
pattern of what the GoldenGlobes usually do.

(02:27:14):
So we went with Tessament VanLee.
Um, and our spoiler, anotherfemale filmmaker, Catherine
Bigelow.

SPEAKER_02 (02:27:21):
I think you have to be careful with Catherine
Bigelow because of just thesubject matter and the fact that
she's never won.
And again, just the idea thatcertain films were designed to
do well, the Golden Globes, thisis it, um, has a dynamite.
I think one we didn't mentionwas Begonia.
Like again, would it be totallyoff-color to see Yorgos here?
Probably not.
I mean, remember, he's only gotthe one nomination for poor

(02:27:41):
things because they did snub himfor the favorite, right?
So they're a little bit behindon you know, um, how much
accolades they've given him.
Um, it'd be kind of interestingbecause this is actually the
first time that Paul ThomasAnderson is actually nominated
in this category after such along career.
Shocking, you know.
So, like when there will beblood was nominated, he didn't
get in.
It was like picture and actor,and I think the score might have

(02:28:02):
gotten in, maybe.
Um, and so again with LiquorRich Pizza and Phantom Thread,
those films didn't get in, andso that's it's a big, big deal
that he's finally finallygetting in here.
Um, but yeah, I think I thinkyou're I think the slate is is
strong.
Um, I think we're onto somethingabout sentimental value, right?

(02:28:24):
Um, so so look out for that.
Um and I think Marty Supreme,it's kind of interesting because
Timothy Chalamet, for ascelebrated as he is, and the
Globes really like him becausethey nominated him for Beautiful
Boy, right, right, and Wonka,he's actually never gotten his
director in.
And I don't I can't I couldn'tthink of a more appropriate time
for him to get his director inthan for Marty Supreme because

(02:28:47):
he may eventually win the GoldenGlobe this time.
Yeah, right.
So that makes that made sensefor us in terms of if we had to
get rid of one Marty Supreme orSentimental for director, right?
Maybe that's why it makes senseto stick with Marty.
Right, 100%.

SPEAKER_00 (02:28:59):
Yeah, um, for the best screenplay category, the
Golden Globe is only have onescreenplay category.
Um, and there's some interestinghistory about the movies that
make it in here.
Uh, we're predicting uh Hamnet,one battle after another,
sentimental value, MartySupreme, and it was just an
accident.
I think those are five locks, Iwould say.
And it's really just that lastspot that's a little bit of a

(02:29:21):
head scratcher.
Will they go for Sinners andnominate that, even though again
it's very spectacle driven andwe're questioning if it's even
gonna make the Oscar uhshortlist um in the uh original
screenplay category?
Or do they go for somethingthat's a little bit more like
them, which is Noah Bomb backfor Jay Kelly?
Um that's our spoiler, JayKelly.

(02:29:43):
Um, we were tossing in betweenthose two, but ultimately
Sinners won out.
Um we also contemplated Bogonia,uh Wake Up Dead Man, which
actually, interestingly,interestingly enough, has never
been nominated for thescreenplay category.
Um Wicked 2, uh uh Wicked forGood.
I think that that should not getscreenplay.

(02:30:04):
Um, the first one couldn'teither.
Um Frankenstein and Nuremberg.
Um what do you think?

SPEAKER_02 (02:30:12):
It's kind of interesting because I think the
reason why that was our pool wasbecause more often than not, um
like 90% of the time, I thinkfrom from what we've we've
researched, um, the Golden Globescreenplay category kind of
feeds off the best picturecomedy and the best picture
drama categories.
Right.
Um, and I think these were thebest contenders we can think of.

(02:30:33):
I do think that the Jay Kellyone, again, talk about movies
that were designed specificallyto appeal to the Golden Globes.
This seems to me like um like itcould easily trump Sinners
because of just the morespeculative nature of spinners,
excuse me, of Sinners.
Um, I think there's also thisaspect sometimes of the way the
Golden Globe voters vote, whichis they kind of divide it

(02:30:55):
between, okay, well, what filmis more directed and what film
is more written?
And I think they may end upsaying that Jay Kelly is a more
written film and Sinners is amore directed film, right?
Right.
And so I think it's gonna beclose.
Um I I wouldn't be shocked aboutabout Bogonia.
Um, Nuremberg would make senseas well.
Again, Frankenstein, I thinkthey would argue is more

(02:31:16):
directed than written.
Right.
Um uh we didn't really mentionit, but it's not because it's
not really you know our finalistfor picture for us.
But if weapons get in here,that'd be a huge, yeah, huge
gap.
Huge.
Um, but yeah, I think it's asolid lineup and watch out for
Jay Kelly.

SPEAKER_00 (02:31:30):
Okay, the Golden Globes have a best score
category.
So um we're predicting Sinners,Frankenstein, Hamlet, K-pop
demon hunters, because animatedfilms tend to do really well
here and get nominated for uhGolden Globe original score
nominations.
Um Marty Supreme, and then we'regonna go with F1.
Um, I feel pretty good aboutthis list.

(02:31:52):
Uh, I know Marty Supreme andHamlet and Frankenstein and
Sinners seem like the best bets,but we feel good about uh an
animated film and which betterone than K-pop Demon Hunters.
And F1, I think, is going to bea dark horse to watch for the
Oscar nominate nomination fororiginal score.
And it feels like the kind ofthing that they would embrace
here in this category as well.

(02:32:12):
Our spoiler is that they'regoing to leave out one battle
after another.
Um, so that's our spoiler.
Avatar three, could it possiblyagain Diminishion Returns only
land a nomination here?
We considered it.
House of Dynamite.
Uh, the composer was just herelast year for Conclave.
Um, Bogonia, uh, and we alsoconsidered the Testament of Anne

(02:32:33):
Lee, but ultimately it felt likethose six were pretty strong for
us.

SPEAKER_02 (02:32:37):
I mean, I think the edge here could potentially be
for Testament of Anne Lee in thesense that Daniel Blumberg won
the Oscar and did not win theGolden Globe.
Right, right.
And that may bother them andthey may feel like they gotta
they want to do over there.
Um, House of Dynamite, um, theywere nominated, I believe, for
Conclave.
Um but if if House of Dynamitegoes over in a big way, that
could end up happening.
And I don't think that the wayof water is gonna be completely

(02:33:00):
blanked.
I refuse to believe that it'sgonna go from best picture
winner in 2009 to best picturedirector nominee in 2022 to
absolutely nothing, unless maybethey didn't get a chance to see
it, but I doubt that that's thecase.
Although maybe it is the case, Idon't know, but I I doubt it.
Um, and and if so, I fullyexpect Avatar to get in
something, and so it may end upgetting into original score

(02:33:22):
because there may be room forit.
Um, I do wonder, like if, forexample, uh the music of Marty
Supreme, you know, because it'sa less known uh uh musician,
composer, they may hold thatagainst uh the film so that that
could happen.
But I think it's a stronglineup, and I really like the
inclusion of of K-pop DemonHunters and the nomination there
would be massive um because itjust lets you know how how

(02:33:42):
favorite it is among among theanimated films this year.
Um, and they do track animatedfilms do track well at the
Golden Globes.
So that makes a lot of sense,right?
All right, so and if you look atthe original song category,
there's some overlap,significant overlap.
So um you should see uh Sinnersnominated for I Lied to You.
Um K-pop Demon Hunter should getin here for Golden, uh Wicked

(02:34:04):
for Good should get in for Girlin the Bubble.
Um F1 uh should get in, andwe're actually pegging it to get
in twice.
I think um uh we're sort ofthinking that it's gonna get in
for just keep watching, and um,it's gonna be close um because
the edge shearing track may bevery tempting for Golden Globe
uh voters, but I think we'regonna give the edge to uh lose

(02:34:27):
my mind.
Um so after that, I think thisis the only spot left that we
have for Avatar, Fire and Ash.
And so we're gonna go ahead andpredict it here.

SPEAKER_00 (02:34:40):
Um even though again Miley Syers was just on it, I
believe, last year.

SPEAKER_02 (02:34:44):
Yeah, for the last showgirl, which actually didn't
end up qualifying for the Oscar.
Maybe she will have better luckthis year.
But for for now, we're thinkingum Dream has one from Avatar
Fire and Ash.
And I like the idea that itdidn't get zero, that it didn't
get nothing.
Right.
Um, and again, they may shelvethe entire diminishing returns

(02:35:05):
theory this year.
Um, so we'll see what happens.
But until that, you know, I dothink at least it gets
something, and I I prefer thatthan a complete shutout.
Right, right.
Um, the spoiler here I think isuh Clothes by the Sun, which is
from Testament of Anne Lee.
And again, it could be anothersort of do-over for Daniel
Blumberg, who's credited here.
And if Testament of Anne Leegoes over in a big way, and

(02:35:27):
right now we have actress anddirector, but if that somehow
becomes picture director,actress, you could certainly
very easily see a song gettingin there, possibly over another
F1 song.
Um, we talked about um, forexample, there's a song from
Heda and Hilder um was on thattrack.
Um, uh Kander and Eb are on anew track from Kiss of

(02:35:48):
Spider-Woman.
I think that's eligible.
Wicked for Good has anothertrack, um, but we still have not
nearly as exactly not nearly asnotable.
And we do we don't want too manynominations for it, it just
doesn't make sense.
Um Sinners has another track,and F1 has the third, but I
think we're we would have asolid lineup there.

SPEAKER_00 (02:36:05):
Okay, and next we have Animated Feature.
What are we thinking?

SPEAKER_02 (02:36:09):
I mean, it's kind of an interesting lineup.
I think the Golden Globes haverecently had some really
interesting creative choices.
Um, they were one of the firstgroups that adopted Mamuro
Hosada for um Murai, which endedup getting a nomination in 2018.
Um, so I think we might get someinnovative choices.
I think K-pop Demon Hunters is alock here.
Utopia 2 is a lock here.
Yeah, Arco should do well here,especially with the backing of a

(02:36:33):
name like Natalie Portman.
But do keep in mind thatsomething like Robot Dreams did
not get in here for Neon.
Right.
They did get in for Flea, butRobot Dreams, which was
nominated for an Oscar, didn'tget in here.
But considering that the lineupis kind of thin this year, Arco
should get in.
If there isn't, it could be alittle bit of a red flag.
But I think Mamoro Hosada shouldbe in there again for Scarlet,

(02:36:53):
which is coming from Sony.
Anime had a huge year this year.
Um, but they did nominate MiraiMirai, and they were one of the
first to nominate Mirai, so Ican only imagine that they would
be excited to nominate Scarlet.
Um so look for that to happen.
Elio should get in despitehaving a uh an atrocious start,
um, an atrocious year, really,in terms of what it made at the
box office.

(02:37:14):
Um, but it is Pixar, and Pixardoes really well here.
Um, a snub would be very, very,very bad for Pixar.
And what if this were a morecompetitive lineup, there's very
a lot of very real reasons tothink that LDO wouldn't make the
cut, but that's not the case.

SPEAKER_00 (02:37:32):
Um yeah, the last time that they were snub in this
category was uh finding Dory in2016.
Exactly, exactly.

SPEAKER_02 (02:37:38):
So like they they even got into this category for
um the good dinosaur, right?
Um, so I don't think that theyhave ever, Pixar has ever been
nominated um for an Oscar for anoriginal film of theirs, you
know, not IP, you know, not likeToy Story 2 or 3 or whatever,
um, without first having beennominated at the Golden Globes.

(02:38:02):
So it's very difficult to thinkthat Elio would be snubbed here
and could still have a shot atthe Oscar.
Um I think it could be snubbedelsewhere, but I think Elio
absolutely needs to get this.
Right.
Um, and if it doesn't, it's ahuge red flag.
Um you you were talking about umfinding Dory in 2016 was the
last time they were completelysnubbed and and didn't get

(02:38:23):
nominated.
It didn't and it didn't getnominated exactly that year.
They were completely absent fromthe Oscar race.
Um and so we have one spot left.
Um, and there's a bunch ofinteresting movies, you know.
Like I said, they'll makeinnovative choices sometimes,
um, especially like on the indieside.
And so um look for maybe a movielike Endless Cookie to get some

(02:38:43):
traction, which is which cameout of Sundance, had a had a
good day at Independent SpiritAwards, uh Olivia in the Clouds,
um, Dog of God from Latvia.
Latvia, um, that that could endup making a dent here.
Um, In Your Dreams from Netflixhas some some good ink.
Um Little Amelie was a favoriteat Cannes, and it would be great

(02:39:04):
if it gets in here.
If it doesn't get in here, Ithink that might be a little bit
problematic, uh, depending onwho's in that spot instead of
it.
A Magnificent Life from France.
Um, it's being distributed bySony Classics, and he has been
nominated here before, Ibelieve.
Triplets of Belleville, um, theillusionists.
So it would make sense toinclude him, but the movie's
kind of quiet right now.
I think ultimately uh what makesthe most sense is for them to go

(02:39:27):
with what is essentially aglobal phenomenon in Najal 2,
um, uh which didn't qualify forthe Oscars for some reason.
But it would be interestingbecause it would make the sixth
film sort of uh uh incapable ofgetting an Oscar nomination.
So it would still make it a verytight race for whoever's coming
in fifth, um, and those moviesthat are left over that I

(02:39:50):
mentioned.
But I do think that they'll goahead and take advantage and
with this then lineup, go aheadand give the nomination to Nay
Shah too.
Right.
Yeah.
Uh if there is a spoiler, Ithink the spoiler would be.
Bad guys, too, becauseDreamWorks historically does
well here.
They're just coming off thatnomination for the Wild Robot.
Right, right.
Um, and they didn't nominate thefirst one, but I do think that

(02:40:10):
they're at least gonna watch aDreamWorks production.
Right.

SPEAKER_00 (02:40:13):
And then we go to the final category, which is
best international film, ourpredictions.

SPEAKER_02 (02:40:18):
And there's a lot of international films that we're
sort of pegging for like biggerraces this year, which makes
this a little bit easier to fillout.
And if any of them misses, it'sgonna be certainly noticeable
notable and it's gonna you knowstir up some conversation.
But the films that you shouldabsolutely see here um is It Was
Just an Accident, Um,Sentimental Value, The Secret

(02:40:39):
Agent.
I think those are absolutelocks.
Um then you have no otherchoice, which I feel like is the
fourth neon film, which could bea little bit risky.
We're talking about this year,Neon's gonna try to get all five
of the foreign language filmnominees.
Can they even do that?
The Golden Globes, whether theycan or whether they can't, can
dictate a lot as to whetherthey're able to replicate it at

(02:41:01):
the Oscars.
Um, no other choice, I think, isthe one that is is most risky
because we have sentimental andjust an accident in picture, and
we're very confident aboutWagner Moore and the secret
agent.
No other choice has the riskierbid for Li Byeongun um because
of the history of that categoryum of foreign language uh
performances.

(02:41:22):
But in this category, they tendto have at least one veteran.
And right now, that's thebiggest thing going for No Other
Choice and Park Chan Muk is thathe was a nominee for decision to
leave 2022, even though theydon't love him or adore him like
Pedro Moldovar because he wasnot nominated for the
handmaiden, right?

(02:41:42):
Um, but at least for decision toleave, he has that previous
nomination.
And if you look at the lineupahead of him, Kleber uh for
secret agent and hooking trierfor sentimental and Panagi for
just an accident, they've neverbeen nominated before, so it'll
be their first nomination.
Yeah, and some of the lineupthat's left to consider also
hasn't has never had anomination before.
So it's like, do we need aveteran in this?

(02:42:04):
Exactly.
Do you need a veteran?
And if so, I think it has to bePark John Wood for no other
choice.
And so that's four spots taken.
I think a good movie to peghere, and I think it's kind of
in a pretty important place forit to show up, is the voice of
humor job.
Yeah, um, which was a favoriteout of Venice, is a very timely
film, but also like just havingnot seen it, understanding sort

(02:42:25):
of what it's about, its subjectmatter, and the way it's
formatted, it feels likesomething that would really
appeal to Golden Globe voters.
So I feel like this is a veryimportant spot for it to show
up.
Um, it helps that I think plan Bis is part, you know, part of
the team behind this.

SPEAKER_00 (02:42:39):
Yeah, um, so as of now, we're considering it a dark
horse for our best pictures.

SPEAKER_02 (02:42:43):
Yeah, it's lurking.
Absolutely.
And and so if it doesn't get inhere, I think that's a red flag.
Yeah, um, and then with one spotleft, you kind of look at the
rest of the field, and they'rethey all sound pretty good.
Um, the President's Cake Umlooks good.
Surratt has to be a favoriteagain from Neon, but can Neon
get a fifth movie in?
Uh Late Shift has its fans, allthat's left of you has its fans.

(02:43:05):
Um, I think we came down to two,and one of them was the movie
film Sound of Fallen, which youliked a lot.
I loved, yeah.
Um and uh the other was LeftHanded Girl, which you also saw
at Cannes, right?
And um was from Netflix.
Yeah, Netflix does well, andNetflix tends to do well here,
but at the very end, we gave theedge to the Argentinian

(02:43:26):
selection, which is Belen,right?
Um, because again, it's a timelyfilm, um, based on a true story.
I had really good critics,really strong critics so far.
And audiences are responding toit.
Audiences are responding to it.
Um, it also has Amazon behindit, and I think that that may be
the difference.
So I kind of think one of thestreamers should get in there,

(02:43:47):
right?
Technically, they're allstreamers, whether it's Belen,
Left-handed Girl, or Sound ofFallings, but I think the whole
like true story of Belen isgonna give it the edge.
And so our sixth spot is Belen,and so we got um it was just an
accident, sentimental value, thesecret agent, no other choice,
the voice of humor job, andBelen.

(02:44:08):
And our spoiler is actuallygonna be left-handed girl
because Netflix they tend to dowell here, right?
Yeah, so that's what we'rethinking there.
Now, I do think like I thinkthat wraps up our predictions
for the Golden Globe.
So there are like a handful offilms that you know, if you're a
fan of them or a fan of thefilms, fan of the performances,
they should do well here.

(02:44:29):
Um, and so you don't do wellhere.
If they don't do well here,they're a little bit of a red
flag.
So that's something to look outfor.
And and films like that, we'vealready mentioned them at the
top.
You know, they include House ofDynamite, Nuremberg, Bradley
Cooper's film is this thing onRental Family Should Do Well
Here, Songsung Blue, Um, uh TheSmashing Machine, Kiss of the
Spider Woman, Roofman, Christy,After the Hunt, uh, even

(02:44:52):
something like Rosemead or orEleanor the Great.
You know, you want those filmsto, you know, pick up a little
bit of momentum here, becausethis is probably their best
shot.
Um, considering how you know therace is sort of solidifying
around like maybe five or sixreally standout movies.
Yeah.
Um, and so we'll see.
I mean, let's hope they have theday that they're looking for.
Begonia is another film that Ithink absolutely was designed

(02:45:15):
for Golden Globes, and it needsto get in here if he even wants
a shot of cracking the the lasttwo spots and best picture or
something like that.
Right.
Um, that's true.
Um, we'll see what happens, andwe'll see how many of these we
get right, and and we'll uh talkabout it next week.

SPEAKER_00 (02:45:30):
Yeah, and uh we'll have these posted on our Twitter
as well, and possibly anarticle.
We'll also post our predictionsfor the critics' choice.
Um, we'll have a post on Twitterand also possibly an article as
well.

SPEAKER_02 (02:45:43):
And LA's coming out, I think, in the weekend.
We'll try to do something.

SPEAKER_00 (02:45:46):
Next time we see we gather, you know, we'll be able
to talk about what made the AFIlist of the top films on AFI,
uh, who won the LAFCA, we'llreact to the Golden Globe
nominees.
They'll be out by Monday.
Um, and yeah, a lot of stuffhappening.
A lot of stuff happening.

SPEAKER_02 (02:46:03):
Yeah, so very exciting month um coming up.

SPEAKER_00 (02:46:05):
And also, we'll be updating our predictions.
Yeah, and uh, hopefully soonyou'll be seeing the updates
along with the updates for allthe critics groups that are
coming out.
So look out for that.
And uh remember to follow us onTwitter at Academy Anon and our
website, framesandflicker.com.
It's on the cover art.
Um, and that's it for thisepisode.

SPEAKER_02 (02:46:25):
Yeah, until next time then.
It's been a pleasure.

SPEAKER_00 (02:46:31):
The music on this episode, entitled Cool Cats, was
graciously provided by KevinMcLeod and Incompitech.com.
Licensed under Creative Commonsby attribution three point zero.
HTTP colon forward slash forwardslash Creative Commons.org

(02:46:54):
forward slash licenses forwardslash by forward slash three
point zero.

SPEAKER_02 (02:47:01):
Disclaimer The Academy Anonymous Podcast is in
no way affiliated or endorsed bythe Academy of Motion Picture
Arts and Sciences.

All Episodes

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

Dateline NBC

Stuff You Should Know

The Bobby Bones Show

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

.css-r6mb8g{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:1;overflow:hidden;}Dateline NBC

Stuff You Should Know

The Bobby Bones Show

All Episodes

Dateline NBC