Oscar Season 2025-2026: ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER Blows Up the Oscar Race; the Contenders for Best Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor

Episode Transcript
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SPEAKER_00 (00:14):
Welcome back, listeners, to a new edition of
the Academy Anonymous podcast.
As always, I'm your co-hostJoseph, and I'm here with Jules.
And we are running down all thenew updates on the Oscar race.
We've got a very fun episodetoday.
I'm going to talk about a bigmovie that came out, One Battle.

(00:36):
Hopefully, we're going to do adeep dive into Best Supporting
Actress and Best SupportingActor.
If you want to look at any ofthe other categories like actor,
actress, check out our episodelast week.
All that's up already.
Some uh updates before we beginour discussion.

SPEAKER_02 (00:52):
Right.
We have officially all thepredictions are ready on our
website.
If you go to our website, wehave a fresh batch of all our
predictions for best picture,best director, actor, actor,
supporting actor, supportingactress, the screenplay
categories, and for many of thetexts.
We have editing, cinematography,production design, costume
design, makeup.
We have sound, we have score, wehave visual effects, and we have

(01:14):
the new category, casting.
Very interesting.
Ooh, nice.
We have our predictions for eachof those categories, who's in
the running, why we'repredicting those five, who's in
contention.
So it's a lot of fun.
Make sure to visit us at ourwebsite, framesandflicker.com.
Um, and also please visit us atour Twitter, uh, which is at
Academy Anon.
That's A-N-O-N, Academy Anon.

(01:37):
And um, yeah, visit us at ourwebsite, frames and flicker.
We'd love to have you.
And uh, we've got a lot of coolupdates there.

SPEAKER_00 (01:43):
Yeah, and uh both of those, um both of the details
for both of those are also onthe cover image for our podcast
in case you want to referencethat later.
Um, a lot of cool stuff goingon.
We are officially uh in theseason of the New York Film
Festival, which is one of thelast film festivals of the fall,
which could um have somepremieres and can have some
impact on the races.

SPEAKER_02 (02:03):
It's got a handful of premieres.
It's got a handful of premieres.

SPEAKER_00 (02:05):
We've been to the New York Film Festival.
We love that festival.
It's freaking awesome.
Great festival.
I did have some question marksthis year.
I think we're gonna dig intothat hopefully next week.
A lot of things going on there,some divisive takes on House of
Dynamite, yeah.
Anemone just premiered.
Um, hopefully, we're gonna talkabout that next week.
We'll have screened it so we cando a little bit more of an
informative take on where we'reseeing on in the race.

SPEAKER_01 (02:27):
Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 (02:28):
Um, uh, you know, uh after the hunt already
premiered, I'm not sure that hadthe recovery that it was hoping
for.
Um, Bruce Springsteen just wentand performed, right?
Which was kind of fun.
I don't think people wereexpecting that.
That's cool.
Yeah.
So we'll dig into the New YorkFilm Festival next week.

SPEAKER_02 (02:43):
Um, then let's also say we also have a slew of
upcoming films that are comingout theatrically.
So I think this week is theSmashing Machine on Top of
Anemones.
Yes.
Um, and uh next week we haveKiss of the Spider Woman and
Roofman.
Roofman's coming out.
Um, just a lot of filmstheatrically.
I think this the Springsteenmovies coming out the week

(03:06):
after, I think.

SPEAKER_00 (03:06):
Yeah, so I think we got our predictions, you know,
we have them updated at just theright time.
We're taking into account thereception out of those film
festivals, but now every filmafter it screens to a select
number of press and a selectnumber of individuals who are
covering the race, now it willscreen for people, and that is a
challenge, a brand newchallenge.

(03:27):
Um, and so I think let's justlet's just start digging into
this episode because we had amovie premiere that skipped the
fall festivals, right?
And you could argue was the bestmovie of the fall.

SPEAKER_02 (03:37):
Um it sort of uh drew a lot of the attention away
from the festivals when theembargoes lifted.
Toronto Who, yeah.
People's choice, what?
Right, yeah, right.
And PTA notoriously doesn'treally like doing a lot of
festivals, right?
So it was not a surprise that hewanted to skip the festivals
here and Warner Brothers as wellafter they had a debacle the
last time they tried to do thatlast year with um Joker 2.

(04:00):
That's right.
So they're very anti-festivalsas well.

SPEAKER_00 (04:03):
Um, and it didn't need the festivals, it did
absolutely did not need theunanimous acclaim and has sort
of, you know, I think carved outthis idea, this very valid idea
of does a film need to premiereat a festival in order to make a
very sizable impact?
Again, I do think that everyoneagrees that the best film that
they've seen in the last monthhappens to be the one that just

(04:24):
opened up to major uh theatersthis past weekend.
Right.
Um, so I think that's somethingyou know worth looking at in the
future.
Um so one battle after anotheropens up.
Um, screening for startedscreening for press a few weeks
ago, right?
So some people had a taste, andthere were some people who even
had a taste of this from a testscreening months ago, right?

(04:44):
Right.
And they were already sayingthat they loved the film.
Um, we were a little bit unsureof what we were gonna be um in
store for.
Um so we've had an opportunityto screen it, and we've actually
been fortunate enough to screenit a couple of times.
A couple of times, and weincluding um IMAX, which was
which was wonderful.
IMAX 70.
IMX 70, which was reallyspecial.
Um, and if you have thatopportunity, you know, go out

(05:06):
there and check that out.
If not, just check it outbecause just watching the film
is special enough.
Yes.
Um I really enjoyed the film.
I thought it was a a reallywonderful Paul Thomas Anderson
film.
I think it manages to be so manythings at once.
Um, it's just such a singularexperience, and to have it in
the theater is extra special.
Um, just a really wonderful newfilm from Paul Thomas Anderson,

(05:29):
which is no surprise.
At the same time, I think it itit pushes his artistry to a new
level.
What did you what did you think?

SPEAKER_02 (05:37):
Well, you know, first of all, we're such adamant
lovers of PTA, as is mostpeople.
He's one of our heroes, fullstop.
We were all of around 11 yearsold when Magnolia changed our
lives, and Magnolia is myfavorite film of all time.
So words can't express how muchwe love PTA.

(05:58):
No surprise here that this filmis an amazing accomplishment
from him.
Um, and one of his best in thelast few years, you know, I
certainly think it's a film thatsurpasses um Inherent Vice and
Licorice Pizza.
Um, it's kind of close for meright now with Phantom Thread,
which is a film that I adore.
Um, and you know, there's somuch go going on in this film,

(06:20):
but what really stuck with mewas just how politically charged
it was for the kind of climatethat we're living in
politically, and being able toturn that into a film that's
also entertaining with thesevery intricate action set pieces
with a phenomenal cast, top tobottom.
Everyone is sparkling, it's justan amazing cast um with a

(06:44):
beautiful score by Johnny GreenwGreenwood and um uh
craftsmanship, uh beautiful topto bottom.
And you know, it's it's but butwhat was very searing for me was
you know just you know how uhpolitically relevant it felt to
me.
You know, I really hit a nerveand it really, you know, was in

(07:06):
a way there's there are thingsabout it that were prophetic
because it wasn't wasn't madejust recently, but it's but it's
it's holding up a mirror towhat's going on right now in
this country and in society sohauntingly, you know, that it
really punched me in the gut andreally left a a very a very
strong impression on me.
I think it was one of the thingsthat I most was captivated by,

(07:29):
enthralled by, disturbed by, andexperiencing all of that,
unpacking all of that in a youknow, beautiful screening like
the AMAX 70 was just an all-timeexperience for me.
I think we both felt similarly.
It was just an incredibleexperience all around.

SPEAKER_00 (07:44):
Yeah, I I completely agree.
Um just to sort of again besurrounded by that image of what
they're saying, but just they'reso beautifully crafted, is is
such a extraordinary experience.
And I think the film I think alot has been said about it, and
I don't think I think the surfthe film will surpass most
people's expectations.

(08:05):
I think it's it's has a lot ofdepth, and I think it's the rare
film that is timely and alsotimeless.
And it's very difficult not toimagine this being a classic in
the future, um, and sort of aseminal American film of a
seminal film from the US andhopefully, hopefully a film that

(08:25):
will represent this next chapterof American filmmaking as a very
promising era of filmmaking,very bold stories um told with
with a a lot of uh vigor andpassion.
And so I think that's part of Ithink that's part of where it
lands in the awards race rightnow.
So let's let's take a largerlook at where we see it heading

(08:49):
in the awards race.
Um and so I will say this we'regonna we're gonna try our
hardest not to speak too indepth and you know have any
spoilers.
So if you're listening, don'tworry about that.
We're not gonna try to revealanything about the plot.
We'll try to just be generalhere.
Um and so I think this is firstof all, I think it's a surefire
contender, and I think it'sgoing to contend, as you said,

(09:11):
top to bottom.
To me, the discussion becomeswill the film have enough legs
to I don't know, uh continuebeing what I see what I see it
now as, which is the frontrunner.
I think it's the front runner towin a large amount of
categories.

(09:31):
Um I think that has to do withthe the film that's on screen,
but also the career that PaulThomas Anderson has has sort of
nurtured here.

SPEAKER_02 (09:40):
Um I think the timeliness is something that's
very uh important to look at inthat discussion.

SPEAKER_00 (09:46):
Right.
Um and then I think well, howabout this?
Let's start talking about whereyou think the film will land,
and I'll preface this by sayingthat the most successful film
from Paul Thomas Anderson withthe Academy was There Will Be
Blood in 2007, and that was Ibelieve eight nominations.
Eight nominations, right?
That's the most she's evergotten.
It was only one actingnomination, and it ended up
being nominated for it.

(10:06):
And so I would start therebecause this film is not going
to do less than There Will BeBlood in nominations.
Interestingly enough, that yearthere will be blood lost best
picture.
It was tied for most nominationswith another contemporary film,
No Country for Old Men.
Which one best picture?
Which one best picture?

SPEAKER_02 (10:24):
And some people have already decided that this is
sort of PTA's No Country for OldMen.
There's certainly a Western bendto it, yeah, you know, which is
very evocative.

SPEAKER_00 (10:33):
The film was fantastic because the film is
sort of the film genre isWestern war epic stoner comedy,
a father-daughter story.
So the film is so many things,but yes, there have been
comparisons to No Country forAll Men, and I'm glad that we
mentioned that because again, NoCountry for All Men, the
Departed.
It sort of brought up this erain American filmmaking that

(10:57):
people look back on with such umuh such appreciation, right?
Because we were leaving sort ofthe costume uh uh the costume
era of movies that are winningbest picture, and all of a
sudden you had these reallytimely pieces that were hitting
a nerve as to like the Americanconscience of the time.
Right.
And so you had this chapterwhere that this chapter where at

(11:19):
the academy were films like TheDeparted and No Country for All
Men won.
And so that's what I'm that'swhy I said that I have hope that
the presence and the success ofone battle after another will
sort of lead this new era ofAmerican filmmaking for the next
couple of years, which are goingto be trying times to say the
least for you know, if you'reliving in the US, or if you're

(11:39):
observing the US, and like yousaid, you know, this sort of
mishmash of all this, you know,these different tones and these
different genres that's workingreally well in the movie while
still wrapped around this again,this mirror that's holding up to
the current landscape that we'reliving in.

SPEAKER_02 (11:54):
Um, it's just so evocative and and really
compelling, really powerful.
And I remember you just bringingthat up.
I remember when The Will BeBlood came out, and I was in
teenager, we were bothteenagers, and I remember that
film left an impression on me,but it was a weird one in the
sense that, and I'm mentioningit because you were mentioning
uh that that particular year,that's his most nominated film,

(12:16):
along with No Control Men, thatwhich I won.
Um, I remember it left a verybig impression on me, but almost
as if I had a hard timedeciphering how how it made me
feel because that film in largepart was a departure from the
kind of films he was makingbefore then Punchman Glove,
Magnolia, Boogie Knights, bigensemble pieces, right?

(12:36):
Right.
There was something so differentabout you know his filmmaking
style.
Period in that film.
Yeah, his first yeah, exactly,exactly.
There's something so differentabout his filmmaking style and
that particular film.
Um, but if you look at theentire body of work of PTA,
there are certain pertinentdominant themes that are
everywhere, and that's certainlytrue for this film.

(12:58):
Um, which if you're a PTA fan,you'll definitely take note,
you'll notice, and again, it'sas as effective as it's ever
been.

SPEAKER_00 (13:06):
Right.
I completely agree.
Um now looking at it throughthat lens, I think we both agree
it cannot go lower than eight.
Right now, I have a theory, andmy first theory is I think this
will be the first PTA film to godouble digits, and so I think
that's no less than 10.
Right.
I think that's how big, that'show immense of the achievement

(13:28):
um we're seeing that's onscreen.
Um when when there was eight forThere Will Be Blood, there was
one nomination that I don'tthink will cross over, right?
Which is There Will Be Blood wasnominated for, you know, best
picture, director, screenplay,actor for Daniel Day Lewis, film
editing, cinematography.
I think all of those arecertainly in play for one
battle, but I do not think thatthe nomination for production

(13:51):
design is in play.

SPEAKER_02 (13:53):
Yeah.
I do think that the film will dowell at the guild for production
design.
It might even win its categoryfor production design.
And it's beautiful.
And it's it's it's really welldone.
But it's I I I I highly doubtthat it's gonna factor into that
category.

SPEAKER_00 (14:05):
Exactly.
It's almost too contemporary,and it's something that they
tend to resist.
And this year in particular,there's a lot of fantasy,
there's a lot of period thatmight muscle it out.
I do think it'll end up winningits um its category of
contemporary at the guild, but Ido not think it'll be able to
make it in there.

SPEAKER_02 (14:22):
And that's true for other categories as well.
You know, the the costume designin the film is very, very well
done.
Colleen Atwood.
But first time working together.
Right.
And I expect it to be cited atthe guild, but I fully expect
the film to not be nominated forcostume design.
Exactly.
Because it's just toocontemporary and they they tend
to prefer um, you know, uh moreperiod uh pieces.

(14:44):
Right.
However, Colleen Atwood ishaving a great year because she
has another surefire contenderin this category for costume
design, which is Kiss of theSpider Woman, which is
incredible work.

SPEAKER_01 (14:54):
Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 (14:54):
And so if Colleen Atwood, if they want to cite
Colleen Atwood, it's hard to seethem want to cite the
contemporariness of one battlewhen they've got Kiss of the
Spider Woman right there.

SPEAKER_00 (15:03):
If anything, it bolstered the reason to nominate
Colleen Atwood this year, butprobably again, probably for
Kiss of the Spider Woman.
I agree with you.
The makeup uh at one battle, Imean, again, it's not like uh
overtly in your face, but it'svery well done throughout.
And there are moments when it'sdone spectacularly well.
It's got a fantastic team.
I don't think it'll end upgetting a nomination.
Could end up being asemifinalist, we never know.

(15:24):
It depends on how crowd thecategory is.
But there again, I don't see itpicking up a nomination.
Right.
But so if there will be bloodhad eight, and you and I are
agreeing that it's gonna loseproduction design, that's seven,
but we quickly mentioned to eachother that it'll pick up
original score, which there willbe blood somehow missed.
Right.
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (15:40):
I think it was like disqualified that year, yeah.

SPEAKER_00 (15:42):
That was stupid.
They disqualified in 2007, sothat's that's eight comfortable
nominations.
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (15:47):
Um well, let's start with Best Picture.
That's a no-brainer.
I agree with you that it's oneof the front runners for the top
prize.
I'm not sold yet that it's thedefinitive winner.
I think right now the way I'mseeing it is it's gonna end up
being a battle between onebattle after another and Hamnet.
And someone brought up aninteresting take.
I read it online or I saw itonline somewhere, that in the

(16:07):
way kind of is a weird uh itsort of mirrors a little bit
1998 with Saving Private Ryanand Shakespeare in Love in a
weird way.
Someone mentioned that in butbut in this particular case,
like Chloe Zhao is the you knowStevens Boberg because she's
already won Best Director.
It's some kind of weird takelike that.

SPEAKER_01 (16:28):
Oh wow.

SPEAKER_02 (16:28):
Um, but I think it's the last time that we saw a
Shakespeare movie be nominatedfor or a film about Shakespeare
to some degree be nominated forBest Picture was 1998.
I believe so.
Um, and so I I see it as thatruined it for all other
Shakespeare movies.
Um and and interestingly enough,Shakespeare himself, uh Joseph
Fines was not nominated uh foras an for an acting award.

(16:51):
Will Shakespeare this year be snominated?
I wonder.
I do wonder about thatsometimes.
Um but anyway, so I see BestPicture ending up to be a battle
between those two films.
Um for the win.
But I do think that when we talkabout Best Picture, we have to
consider that you know, thepackage of one battle after
another contemplates to somedegree how well it does at the

(17:12):
box office.
And so unfortunately, that's notsomething that we can completely
ignore.
It's all over our notes if youlook at our predictions.
Shameless plug.
Um, and we just got the boxoffice receipts receipts, and
the film came out with I think22 million.
Not 22, uh domestic.
It did break the streak thatWarner Brothers was having
consecutive 40 million plus youknow, releases, debuts.

(17:35):
It was expected.
Um, but the sort of uh if youlook on film Twitter, the fervor
for One Battle was huge, and soyou would think that that might
possibly translate.
I mean, the film is like 96 onMetacritic, so there was a lot
of hope that that couldtranslate to a more to more box
office, uh a bet a better boxoffice result than what was
expected.

(17:55):
However, it got exactly what wasexpected, right?
Which was in the 20s, which is agood opening for Paul Thomas
Anderson in general.
It's just not a very strongopening when you consider that
the film has a price tag ofaround 150 million.
Yeah.
Um, which is a very huge pricetag.
That's a talking point.
I think Warner Brothers is, youknow, probably not as concerned

(18:16):
because you know, they've hadsuch a successful year and
they've had so many successescome out this year that you know
defied expectations.
Just look at the conjuring acouple weeks ago.
Weapons.
Uh, weapons was huge, and ofcourse Sinners was huge.
Superman.
And so in a way that kind of Ithink relieved that exactly from
this film having to like youknow break the bank with the box

(18:37):
office.
But still, you know, right nowit doesn't right now.
I don't think it's it to me, itseems like it's a film that's
not going to reach um profit ina way, with how much with what
the budget was to make the film.
And so that's I think somethingthat unfortunately is part of
its narrative, right?
That it's so criticallyacclaimed and so beloved by

(18:57):
critics and by PTA fans andCinefals.
But at the box office, it's not,you know, a jargon, it's not a
huge hit.
Right.
Will it have legs?
Possibly, we'll see.
I mean, that's sort of the wordof mouth helps, right?
Like had an A Cinema score,that's great.
So I think that there'spotential for some staying
power, but there's also, Ithink, a very uh strong

(19:18):
probability that it doesn't makeback its money.

SPEAKER_01 (19:20):
Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 (19:21):
Until possibly it gets nominated, in which case it
can have a second win, and thenmaybe then it will.

SPEAKER_01 (19:26):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (19:26):
Um, but anyway, the point is that right now,
pre-nominations, it's part ofthe narrative that it's a film
that didn't do as well at thebox office as one would hope,
especially with all the acclaimthat it was amassing.

SPEAKER_00 (19:36):
Right.
Correct?
Yeah, but let's also mentionthat it is Paul's biggest
opening, which is good.
Right.
And it puts it on track to atleast match the will be blood in
terms of Lifetime US Gross.
And I think unfortunately, it'son the lower end for Leo in
terms of openings.
Right.
Isn't it right on par withKillers of the Flower Moon?
Exactly.
It's right on par with Killersof the Flower Moon, which again
was also kind of disappointing.

(19:56):
It was also a$200 millionbudget, I believe, for Marty's
film.
So slightly more expensive.
Um, I think Warner Brothers hasdone one hell of a job promoting
the film.
It's got the cast all over theplace, and that's got to be
expensive too, but you're right.
And I will say Killers of theFlower Moon ended its run at
around 68 mil for the US.
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (20:13):
I that's sort of like where I'm seeing uh one
battle end.
I think it's gonna end aroundthe 70, possibly 80 million
range, right when all is saidand done.
Again, until possibly it gets asecond win post-nominations,
possibly.
But the reason I brought up thebox office is because if if I'm
seeing Best Picture look C rightnow as a battle between uh One

(20:34):
Battle and Hamnet, that'ssomething that narrat that
narratively Hamnet is not gonnahave to deal with.
Right.
It's not gonna have to deal withthis, you know, lingering, you
know, it was not a box officehit.
It was, you know, it's acertainly a smaller budgeted
film.
Right.
And I think that there's enoughthere in that movie, and it's
sizable enough that I think itcan make back its money at the
box office.

(20:54):
Yeah, especially with again,this is another film that's in
the mid-90s on Metacritic.
Right.
Um, this is also a film that'svery emotional, and people are
coming, be are people going tothe screening and crying their
eyes out.
Right.
And so I in a way, I see thatbeing a big asset to something
like Hamnet that is gonna be, Ithink right now, the film that
can most give one battle a runfor its money.

SPEAKER_00 (21:15):
I think we also talked about that idea about you
know what kind of academy we'regonna get.
Are we gonna get the academythat wants to escape?
Because Hamnet is gonna be thatemotional escape, or are we
gonna get the Academy of Honoraand four Oscars for Sean Baker,
which is I it's time to have theconversation that Honora wants
us to have?
Are they gonna say it's time tohave the conversation that one

(21:36):
battle wants us to have?
Right.
Um, something else that couldcome into play here is, you
know, as a voter, when you'reselecting your films or when
you're selecting a winner, howheavily are you gonna judge one
battle's box office success on acurve in the sense that you
know, no, it may not make itsmoney back at the box office,

(21:58):
but the risk that was sort ofimplied by green lighting this
film and giving it that pricetag.
And again, you can see theentirety of that price tag on
screen.
You know, how much are you goingto weigh it against, you know,
it didn't make its money back,but this is the kind of film
that I want to reward a bigstudio for making because they

(22:21):
don't make that, you know.
It's it's it's easier to getaway with making Hamnet at that
budget level at focus or a Noraat that budget level and and
working with Neon.
The idea that there's a studioout there that was able to green
light this for that amount ofmoney, and again, it's not
frivolously spent, all thatmoney is certainly on the

(22:42):
screen.
Right.
How much are you gonna weighthat against I want to give it
an award because I want to seewhat you know Universal's
version of that is, right?
I want to see what Disney'sversion of that is, I want to
promote that idea again ofstudio supporting these big
artistic statements that arealso very much on the pulse of

(23:02):
what you know Americans aredealing with on a daily basis.
Yeah, right.
So I think that might also playinto it.
Um but so after best picture,best director, right?

SPEAKER_02 (23:11):
Obviously, and I think you know, given Paul's
stature in the industry and hiscareer and his filmography, I
certainly think he's very wellpositioned in that race to win.
Um, I think his biggestcompetition right now, I think,
in that race is Ryan Kugler.
I can't say Chloe's out becauseshe's already won.
I think that that's a big reasonwhy she won't win, and maybe

(23:32):
even a reason why she won't evenget nominated for best director,
as shocking as that may sound.
Right.
Um, I think his biggestcompetition is the other Warner
Brothers fan, which is RyanKugler, who could make history
becoming the first black uhdirector to win best director,
which is no small thing.
That would be an incredibleachievement.
Um, so I think that that thatnarrative that Ryan Kugler might

(23:54):
be playing with in centers isgonna be a big deal.
Yeah.
So I sort of but but but PaulThomas Anderson is not his first
nomination as a director, itwould be for Ryan Kugler's, and
he has a sort of career that isjust you know so revered and so
respected that it's gonna be atough competition, but I give
the edge to Paul ThomasAnderson, right?

SPEAKER_00 (24:12):
I mean, so there will be blood in terms of
acting, had Daniel Day Lewis inthe bag, right, right?
Um, I think we both agree thatuh the nomination in terms of
acting that One Battle has inthe bag, and I think the
consensus is formed around it isfor Sean.
Right.
Right, Sean Pennon's supportingactor.
Right, right.

SPEAKER_02 (24:28):
And I absolutely I agree with that a hundred
percent.
I think one for a film like OneBattle, which again has a
stupendous cast, I think actingis one of the most interesting
things when we talk about awardsprospects for it.
Um, because everyone not there'snot a there's not an actor here
that's wasted.
Everyone gets an opportunity toshine, big or small, and the

(24:51):
bigger you are, the more you getto shine.
Um uh that's just how wellcalibrated everything is.
This film absolutely deserves acasting nomination that I think
it will get, and we'll we'll bein contention to win.
Um I think that certainly theconsensus has been around uh
Sean Penn being the sort of youknow absolute nomination, and I

(25:13):
agree with that.
I love Sean Penn.
I can't say it's my favoriteperformance of the piece, you
know.
I I do think he plays it pretty,pretty broadly.
Um I'm not sure I would say it'sone of my top five Sean Penn
performances, but I will say hele he's it's it's it's it's it's
I mean Sean Penn's always great,so that's always great, exactly.
Um uh but I will say that he hehe does stand out in the film.

(25:34):
He's sort of the the the youknow, I guess he's the
villainous, he's the villain ofthe piece, even though I think
the film very evocatively hassort of has an empathy for him.
It does.
That's that's very touching.
That's very touching and tragic.
Uh yes, absolutely, 100%.
Um, so I think he is absolutelythe standout.
Then I think it getscomplicated.
Right.

SPEAKER_00 (25:54):
But so before we head into those complications,
just so that we're on the samesort of page here in terms of
tracking there will be blood.
So the one acting nod that weeveryone agrees for sure is
gonna happen is Sean.
Film editing looks like ano-brainer.
It's a really long film, butthis is the editor from Licorice
Pizza.
He didn't get in for LicoricePizza.

SPEAKER_02 (26:11):
And and uh the editing in this particular film
is incredibly impressive becausefor as long a film as it is, two
and a half hours, you know, itmoves at a clip.
Oh my god, it moves so well, itmoves so freaking fast, moves so
well, it feels like an hour anda half, it doesn't even feel
like three hours, I have to say.
So I absolutely think thatthat's a no-brainer nomination.

SPEAKER_00 (26:29):
Also, a lot of action going on here, a lot of
intercutting, and also, youknow, several layers to the
story going on.
So that's gonna be a factor forit.
Cinematography, yeah, it shoulddefinitely get in.
We everyone knows shot inVistaVision, right?
Um, watching it in a theater issuch a major, massive part of
the experience.
So cinematography, we're inagreement, it's gonna match
that.

SPEAKER_02 (26:49):
Uh along the lines of what we were saying about um
pacing, I think that JohnnyGreenwood score does a lot to
contribute to that pacing.
Momentum, yeah.
And building that momentmomentum um and uh helping the
film feel as you know umcompulsive and kinetic as it
does.
And so I certainly think JohnnyGoonwood will get his third

(27:11):
nomination for this film, right?

SPEAKER_00 (27:12):
And his second with Paul.

SPEAKER_02 (27:13):
Right.

SPEAKER_00 (27:14):
And it'll make up for that, also that snub that
we're talking about from thewill be blood.
And so forget about theproduction design nomination
because it's really tough for itto happen.
Right.
But the will be blood did get asound nomination, right?
And I think we're both on thesame page here thinking that one
battle is is an easy one.
That's an easy one for it topick up.

SPEAKER_02 (27:31):
I I I I certainly think that it will get an eye
for sound.
I'm not sure right now that I'mready to place in the top two
for sound.
So because it's on the lower endof the category, I think there's
always a possibility that couldget snubbed from sound.
But right now, I see it wellpositioned to get that category.
I think it's like a number four,number five right now.

SPEAKER_00 (27:49):
Right.
And so then I'm pretty sure Imentioned, but certainly Paul in
adapted screenplay, and this iscertainly an adapted screenplay,
very much like There Will BeBlood, it's using the source
material, making it its own, butit's credited in the credits.
If you haven't seen it, it iscredited um in part to to
Vineland from Pigeon.

SPEAKER_02 (28:05):
And I will say there's a poetry to you know,
whatever happens in BestDirector that Paul I think is
definitively going to win thescreenplay category.
Whatever happens with the boxoffice, whatever happens in the
best director category, I thinkthat screenplay category is his.
And there's a poetry to thatbecause as he's one of our
greatest uh cinematicstorytellers and screenwriters.

(28:26):
And to have him his firstnomination was as a screenwriter
uh for Boogie Knights, right?
And so, you know, to have thatbe one of his first Oscars, I
think there's such a beautifulpoetry to that.

SPEAKER_00 (28:37):
I completely agree.
Um, and so that's the eight.
I think nine is a very easy one.
That's casting, right?
That that's like I think afour-nine, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 (28:47):
Interestingly enough, yeah, she's actually
never been cited by the castinguh association, yeah, um, even
though she's such an integralpart to Paul Thomas Anderson's
films and building thoseincredible ensembles.
Yeah, and again, because theensembles are firing on all
cylinders in this particularfilm, I just can't see her not
getting mentioned in thatcategory.

SPEAKER_00 (29:06):
Also, the eclecticness of the cast, right?
And the diversity of the cast.
You had to make new discoveries,you had Chase uh as a discovery
here.
So it's almost like it has alittle bit of all the great
casting.
Like we need someone to lead it,we need someone, we need a
discovery.
Um, we need someone to uh sortof give us a different lingo
when we need it.
Um, we also need someone to justlike really be a uh to really

(29:29):
shine in two minutes.
I know the perfect actor.
Right, right.
I definitely think that's gonnahappen.
And that's nine, right?
My opinion is if any Paul ThomasAnderson film is gonna go double
digits, this would be the onebecause it is such a massive
price tag and it's in a massivecanvas on screen.
Um, I also I have this idea thatI don't think it can go lower

(29:50):
than Once Upon a Time inHollywood.
Right.
I think you know, as thesefilmmakers age, they just as you
said grow in stature and grow inrespect and esteem and just
fanaticism amongst moviegoers,but.
People in the industry.
And so I do think that I can'tsee this going less than 10 when
Once Upon a Time in Hollywoodwent with 10, right?

SPEAKER_03 (30:07):
Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 (30:07):
Um, and so we're left to sort of cherry pick what
could be that 10th nomination.
And it seems to me that we bothagree it should be an acting
nomination.

SPEAKER_02 (30:15):
The easiest place to get that 10.
I agree.
I I think the film gets at least10.
I'm not a hundred percent sureyet if I see I like 10 as the
number, you know, in a way kindof mimics a little bit Kes of
the Flower Moon, which kind ofunderperformed at the box
office, despite beingunanimously praised by critics.
You know, so I kind of like aninteresting symmetry that's
going there and also PTA wasinvolved in this in the in the

(30:37):
script of Quietly, yes.
He but during the press tour, hehe talked about it a bit, which
was which was interesting.
Wow.
Yeah.
Um, and so I kind of like 10 asa number right now.
Um, but you're right, theeasiest the easiest uh category
to fill that slot is anotheracting nomination.
And so who do you think has theedge there?

SPEAKER_00 (30:56):
All right.
Well, like I said, and we'lldeep dive into possibly you know
the richest categories that ithas for acting, which is
supporting actor and supportingactress.
But if you had to maybe pick onethat you're kind of leaning
towards right now for that tenthnomination, the person or the
category?

SPEAKER_02 (31:11):
Um both.
Okay.
I would say that consideringthematically what the film is
about, I think it's really hardfor I think it's hard for there
not to be a supporting actressnominee from this.
Um and there are threeincredible women who do fabulous

work here (31:30):
Tayana Taylor, Chase Infinity, and Regina Hall.
Um, each with limited screentime to a certain degree, which
complicates things, but I don'tsee how, considering how
integral they all are and to thefilm, to the story, and to the
themes of the film that it'sit's exploring, I don't see how
we don't get at least onesupporting actress nominee into

(31:52):
in in this into this count.
So I would say it has to be asupporting actress nominee.
And right now, I think you know,supporting actress is tough
because I I I I'm not 100% sure.
Well, let's put it this way myfavorite supporting actress
performance was Regina Hall.
I thought she was so lovely andpresent.

(32:12):
Tremendous actor, tremendous,tremendous actor, that I think
it's going to be, you know, arevelation to some Academy
members who just see her as, youknow, kind of a funny presence.
We've always known that she'shad the chops, so she's had the
dramatic depth.
She gets to showcase it here.
Unfortunately, though, she isunderutilized.
I agree with that criticismabout her, or maybe not even

(32:34):
criticism, but I agree thatthat's true, unfortunately,
about her performance.
It is underutilized.
Um, but I thought she wasamazing.
Um but I think that Tana Taylor,who was also amazing, um she
really freaking owns the first30 minutes of the movie.
Like she fucking devours thefirst 30 minutes.
The first 20, 25, 30 minutes arehers.

(32:56):
The prologue is hers.

SPEAKER_00 (32:57):
Yeah, she's essentially the prologue.

SPEAKER_02 (32:59):
She's an essential part to you know how how things
unfold, the events, right?
You know, she's a catalyst andshe just storms into the film
with such intensity that it tome it was hard to forget about.
It was hard to shake.
So in a way, she kind of hoversthroughout the film, even if her

(33:20):
part is the beginning of thefilm.
Um, and so in a way, I and she'sshe's also very complex, very
endearing, very captivatingcharacter.
She's really comp complexlywritten that I can't help but
feel like she's gonna leave anindelible impression on whoever
watches that film.
Um, and then last you have ChaseInfinity, who I think is a major

(33:42):
discovery of the film, but shehas very few credits.
I think she's part of thepresumed innocent show.
You know, I think thatunfortunately her credits might
be a detractor here for her interms of getting her first
nomination.
Um, we're to we'll talk aboutlater, you know, specific
specifics, but there are somethe people are uh claiming, you
know, predicting that she mighteven get a shift into lead to

(34:05):
make some room for the other twocontenders and supporting.
I certainly think that, youknow, because they all do a
wonderful job and they all havesome some form of cons to some
degree, they kind of eat at eachother a little bit.
So the first time I saw thefilm, I thought everyone is
great in terms of supportingactress, it's Teano or Bust.
That's what I thought the firsttime.

(34:26):
Right.
Um, just because again, it it'sjust they eat at each other a
bit.
So, right.
The second time I saw it, Iguess maybe I thought more
possibly that you know theymight not necessarily have to
eat at each other, especially ifyou move Chase to lead.
And at the same time, I wonderpeople have been talking about
um uh Inga and Al Fanningpossibly getting a double

(34:50):
nomination for sentimentalvalue.
I think that's wrong.
You know, having seenSentimental Value, I think Al
Fanning is a lock, pure andsimple.
She's the biggest lock, the onlylock on supporting actress.
But after that, you know, I'mnot sure that I see Inga getting
into this five, but I candefinitely see two actresses
from this film getting into thefive.

SPEAKER_00 (35:08):
Could totally happen.

SPEAKER_02 (35:09):
Um, and then I wonder if those two would be
Tana Taylor and Regina Hall.

SPEAKER_00 (35:13):
I'm I mean, I think that's a perfectly valid
argument.
And so you're saying the tenthspot possibly coming from
supporting actress.
Yes.
I could totally see that.
For me, my gut says that there'sa tenth spot.
Look for someone like Benishadel Toro, who is beloved and
respected within the academy.
He's a winner for traffic.
He has such a memorable part inthis movie.
Fucking good, and he's amazingin his part, and again,

(35:36):
instantly memorable, um, veryclassic performance, I think.
But instantly poignant.
Yeah, absolutely, and verylayered, and just he he does
what Benicio Lotoro can do.
Um, and I think it's beenforever since he's been he's
been nominated, and he he heshould have been nominated for
Sicario, to be perfectly honest.
So I don't know how thathappened.

(35:57):
Right.
But here he is, he's workingwith his friend Sean Penn,
right?
Um, and he I think you know, um,it's his second uh film with
Paul Thomas Anderson, howalready had a great turn in Wes
Anderson's film, whichunfortunately didn't get a good
crowd.
But I would look for Benicio.
And so I think you and I areboth touching on the idea of the
10th nomination being an actor.
But I want to take this a stepfurther, and I want to say that

(36:19):
you know, Warner Brothers hashad one hell of a year, and so
congratulations to them.
I gave them a lot of flack, butthey've had a hell of a year, a
lot of great populist films, andnow just a fantastic art film,
independent film, au tour film.
It's it's really wonderful tosee.
Um, I think they're in theposition this year.
My gut says they're in theposition this year, the enviable

(36:41):
position, to have both theBarbie and the Oppenheimer.
And so I think that One Battle,um, which I will refer to as Oba
because I like that.
I like that.
Some people like One Battle, Ilike Oba.
I like One Battle.
Okay, so Oba, I think has thethe canvas of Greek film, Oba

(37:04):
has the canvas of Oppenheimer,and like Oppenheimer, represents
what the industry, what majormillion-dollar filmmaking can
do, both artistically,creatively, but also
thematically, um, socially, um,politically.
Um, so I think that that's whereone battle could possibly sit.

(37:25):
And Sinners, I think, is theBarbie in terms of just this uh
blockbuster that has so muchdepth and so many layers and is
so meaningful to the industry,again, so meaningful to artists
and meaningful to the future ofstorytelling, and and just you
know Ryan Coogler's is gonnacarry this torch of what

(37:46):
filmmaking can be for the next20, 25 years, more than that.
Um, and so I think they're inthe coveted position of this
year, they're not gonna lose outto the Oppenheimer, they have
the Oppenheimer.
If the Oppenheimer loses to theBarbie, then they have the
Barbie, which is sinners.

SPEAKER_02 (38:00):
Right, with the one caveat being that those two are
blockbusters.
Yes.
Oh well.
Well, and that in thisparticular case, the blockbuster
would be sinners, right?
And one battle would not be ablockbuster.

SPEAKER_00 (38:09):
Right.
That I think that that is alsoworth mentioning.
Um, but that's the way I'mseeing it.
The other thing I'll say is, youknow, when I look at Oppenheimer
and it breaks the 10 nominationsand it's Chris's most nominated
film.
I think 10 obviously would bePTA's most nominated film, but I
do wonder if it can go furtherthan 10.

(38:29):
And so we did have the benefitof seeing it twice.
If you speak to anyone about thefilm afterward, one thing is
gonna become instantlynoticeable.
People love differentperformances.
Some people love Leonid, somepeople love Sean, some people
love Benisha, some people loveRegina, some people love Taylor
Taylor, some people love Chase.
They're all brilliant.
And the film gives them eachmaterial, yeah, and they exceed

(38:53):
and excel what they're given.
Um, and I think it's also boldlycast, right?
Where you have Sean Penn doingsuch a memorable Sean Penn movie
that, you know, I think harksback to very early young Sean
Penn when he's a teenager,right?
Um, but at the same time, youhave Regina Hall.
I I told you this.

(39:13):
You get Regina Hall and she'ssort of playing the straight
man, yeah, right.
And then you get Leo and youtell Leo, I don't want you to
play the straight man, I wantyou to play, I want you to play
the the comic, the comedicrelief.
Right, right.
Right.
And so, and then you have theDiscovery in Chase, and then
Tiana Taylor, right?
As you said, is volcanic whenshe enters the film.
And so part of me wonders canthis film really go less than

(39:34):
three acting nominations?
When I look at something likeBirdman or Oppenheimer, which
ended up winning Best Picture,they each got three acting
nominations.
Yeah, right.
And um, one of them is at leasta veteran, right?
Uh Downey Jr.
was a veteran.
They were able to bring in EmilyBlunt and Killian Murphy for
Oppenheimer, uh, Edward Nortonwas a veteran, able to bring in
Michael Keaton and Emma Stonefor the first time.

(39:54):
And so I I think my gut saysthere's a minimum here of three
acting, right?
Right.
I agree 100%.
I do.
And I think smart people aresort of picking up on the idea
that it might be Leo, right?
Because Leo tends to get inwhenever his screenplay gets in,
and people are definitely takingit.
Because Killers of the FlowerMoon, he got snubbed for, right?

(40:15):
And we're sort of saying, canwell, maybe, maybe they're gonna
nominate Leo this time.
You and I discussed it becausethey snubbed him for killers,
right?
Right.
And certainly in killers, he gota very unflattering role, and I
think that hurt.
I think he's fantastic.
I love him in Killers of theFlower Moon.
Wonderful in that.

SPEAKER_02 (40:30):
He's I think it's one of its one of his top
performances.
I will say that you know, thestat that you're bringing up
about Leo has never missed whenhis film has been nominated for
screenplay.
Screenplay.

SPEAKER_00 (40:40):
I mean Titanic again, not a screenplay nominee,
not a Leo nominee.

SPEAKER_02 (40:46):
Right?
I think he's great in Titanictoo.
I think he's he's awesome inTitanic.
Um, but you know, I prior to youmentioning that, my gut was that
I could see Leo actually shsurprisingly missing for this
movie because I think that somevoters, and again, I don't agree
with this personally, but Ithink some voters would see the
performance and see so you knowhow comic relief laden it is and

(41:09):
sort of punish him in a way,kind of think, kind of say,
Well, you know what?
I I feel like I saw a version ofthat and once upon a time in
Hollywood.
What you got nominated for?
What you got nominated for.
So I don't feel like I had Idon't feel like you're bringing
something new to the table, andmaybe I don't need to nominate
you.
I mean, you're gonna be hereagain anyway.
The urgency.
Right.
You know, killers prove that hecould get, you know, could have
a best picture nominee and nothave him included.

(41:32):
So I did think that originally.
Now that you mentioned thatstat, I'm I'm questioning.

SPEAKER_00 (41:36):
I because you I mean, also with Killers of the
Flower Moon, you go to Leo atpossibly his most unlikable,
right?
Um, which is why he's fantasticin it, to Leo at his most
lovable, right?
Which is Leo and Oba, whichwhich really helps.
But I do wonder if there couldbe a nomination for him as that
third nomination, um, as sort ofuh, okay, well, we'll nominate

(41:56):
him and it'll be for both worksin a Paul Thomas Anderson film,
potentially, because again,that's all killer rumor or
whatever.
Yeah.
Um, so we sort of screwed himfor the last PTA film that
wasn't credited, and so maybenow they'll include him.
Um, but I also think you'reright, like at a certain point,
Leo is just a master andmasterful at getting these films
made, so that if we nominate Leofor every time he makes an

(42:18):
extraordinary film, we're gonnanominate Leo every time he makes
a new film because Leo's notgonna waste his time on a film
that isn't extraordinary, right?
You know what I mean?
So maybe you're right, maybethat will become a factor.
But I do think in my gut thatwe're looking at a minimum of
three acting nominations, and sothey could double up in any of
those categories.
Um, but again, I will also saythat because the film, because

(42:41):
all the actors are in the rightplace at the right time, Sean
hasn't been nominated since hiswin for milk, Benicio hasn't
been nominated since 21 Grams.
Um crazy.
Regina Hall has never gotten herflowers and is being seen in a
new light, which is great.
Tiana Taylor, you know, itfulfills all the promise that
she showed from 2022, 2023,1001.

(43:01):
2023 and 1001, right?
Um and Chase this Chase is is isis a new discovery because
they're all sort of in the rightplace.
I do wonder, and I mentionedthis on Twitter and I stick by
it if the year is possibly emptyenough in terms of projects,
movies that voters arepassionate about, but if the

(43:23):
film can tie the record for fiveacting nominations, or possibly
even exceeded.
And so the last film to get fiveacting nominations was Network,
right?
And that was from UA UnitedArtists, right?
And it won a bunch of thosecategories, even famously best
supporting actors.
Faye Dunaway won, um, PeterFinch.

(43:44):
Um before that, you had that Ithink that was 1976, you had
Godfather Part 2, 1974, bunch ofnominations went for Robert De
Niro, Al Pacino went lead, um,Strasbourg, and so uh Talia
Shire.
And so I do wonder if this filmyou just again, everyone does
not agree on who their favoritesare.

(44:05):
Everyone agrees that everyone isspectacular, but no one agrees
on their favorite, which is aninteresting thing to see.
And so I do wonder if there'sgonna be enough passion out
there for all of them topotentially get in.
And I think this is why I bringup the chase thing, is because I
think chase is what hurts themost in supporting actress
because internal competitionbetween two is one thing,

(44:27):
internal competition betweenthree is a killer, right?
And I do think that best actressis absolutely dead as a
category.
It's empty, yeah.
It's so not good.
Yeah, I think this year.
And it's not that and it's notthat turns aren't bad, it's just
the timing's off.
Yeah, so Emma Stone is fantasticin um begonia, but the timing is
off.
Right.

(44:47):
Jennifer Lawrence is fantasticin Dime I Love, right, but the
timing is off.
And either those films competingwith Amanda Sayfried if she
comes out, Rose Byrne, who'sdefinitely coming out, the
timing's off.
Right.
And so I definitely think thatif you move Chase into best
actress, you have room to doubleup in those other categories.
And I do think that Chase is somemorable enough that she can

(45:09):
make it into best actress.
I absolutely I absolutelybelieve that.
Uh you'll be surprised how manypeople I've spoken to who say
Chase has the moment of themovie, right?
Um, and I will we'll let youdecide that when you watch it.
Um but so I do wonder if thefilm can tie the five, right?
And maybe you leave off Chasebecause she's still too new.

(45:30):
She's brilliant, but she's stilltoo new, and she shows such
tremendous promise.
Or do you break it?
Because again, I do thinkthere's gonna be an element here
where if I have to considermovies, you know, like um
whatever, uh Jay Kelly orFrankenstein, which aren't maybe
my favorite acting movies, ifI'm just gonna go ahead and want
to put the movie that I love themost, one battle as high as

(45:53):
possible.

SPEAKER_02 (45:54):
Right.
You know, I think it's aninteresting theory and we've
talked about it, but I also feellike it could just as easily do
the opposite, which is becausethere's not a cons there's not
consensus enough that that oneuh one nominee or one uh one
contender doesn't amass thevotes needed to make it into

(46:15):
that category, you know, becauseyou know it's it's too
splintered, yeah.
You know, and I think thatcould, as you're saying, you're
saying that that could help.
I could it could hurt.
Yeah, it could hurt that thingsare too splintered, and so
there's just not enough of oneperson or two people or three
people because they're split sixways, right?
Um, so I think that's certainlysomething to look at.
That's why I'm hesitant.

(46:36):
I do think that a lot of thecontenders we're we're talking
about seem very possible to me.
Um, I think Benicio sneakinginto supporting actor, I mean,
when we get to that category, Ithink there's an open spot
there, and I think someone likeBenicio can absolutely take that
spot.
Um, I think uh Leo, that statyou mentioned right now, is
really you know impressing me.

(46:58):
I I I I didn't think of it thatway.
Um, he could definitely be uhanother contender that gets in.
I think supporting actors is alittle tough because even though
I can certainly see one battleafter another getting two spots
there and supporting actors morethan I can see sentimental value
getting two spots and supportingactors, I think it hurts that

(47:22):
that that that Regina Hall haslimited things to do.
You know, she shines becauseshe's that strong of an actor,
but I can't help but feel thateven the people who recognize
her beautiful work in this movieall come out saying the same
thing, which is she's underused.

SPEAKER_01 (47:40):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (47:41):
And so I think you'd have to have an academy voter
who sees the film, recognizesthat she's underused, and says,
I'm gonna nominate her anyway.
And that's tricky.
Will they do that?
Will they go that far?
Will they go that far if they'realready nominating three other
actors from one battle?

SPEAKER_01 (47:54):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (47:55):
They might say, you know, I'm nominating enough
people, and she is great, butshe didn't, I didn't get enough.

SPEAKER_01 (48:01):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (48:02):
Um, and uh we've already talked about Chase and
the and the and the few credits.
Her crashing the best actorseries is wild.
You know, could she get an eyefor best actress with such few
credits?
I don't know.
I I I'm not seeing it right now,but let's say we say Teyana
Taylor for supporting actress,let's say we say Benicio and
Sean um for supporting actor,and let's say we say Leo

(48:24):
DiCaprio for uh best actor.
That's four.
That's four, and that makes alot of sense.
But I wanted to bring up howeven with four acting nominees,
and I think this matters intohow you're gonna figure out if
it's gonna get an eye for four,for five, for six.
No one feels like a winner.
And none of those four, and youwant to put Virginia Hall, put

(48:47):
her in, and if you want to putChase Infinity, put her in.
Nobody feels like a winner.
You know, um, part of that isthe characters they're playing.
So, for example, Sean Penn'scharacter, uh, he he you know,
he's one of our greatest and hedoes great work.
I don't see that winning ever,especially not over something
that's sort of tailor-made towin Lex Don's Gars Gard.

(49:08):
Right.
Leo DiCaprio, I don't see himwinning a second Oscar uh for
that.
Uh unfortunately, I just don'tsee it.
Right.
Chase Infinity, if she were toget into Best Actress, I don't
see her winning for Best Actressbecause she has too few credits.
Right.
And then supporting actress.
Regina Hall, again, she has toolittle to win.
So she can't win supportingactress.
Then you go to Tiana Taylor.
And Tiana Taylor is reallyinteresting because she has a

(49:30):
very complexly writtencharacter.
She has a prickly character.
And so if you see the film, youknow, she really kind of runs
the gamut of, you know, thesekind of psychological spaces
that are, you know, part enigma,part, you know, uh fascinating,
part frustrating, partsurprising, but none of it feels

(49:51):
like the kind of package that'senough for them for the academy,
what they typically award inthat category.
You know, there's somecontroversial things about her
character that I'm not sureexactly yet how the academy is
gonna perceive it.
Um uh so I don't think TeonO'Taylor can win for that
either.
So then we're now we're talkingabout a nom uh a movie getting

(50:11):
four nominations, getting fivenominations, getting, as you're
saying, six nominations,breaking the record, right, with
no winner.
And so I think that goes thatdoes a lot to sort of break that
theory, in my opinion.

SPEAKER_00 (50:21):
I think that's a fantastic point, and I
absolutely love that point.
And I think it certainly youknow shouldn't make someone
who's predicting think about it.
But I will say that that was thecase for Network, which won a
bunch, right?
Won a bunch of Oscars off thosenominations.
It was the case for Godfathertoo, Robert De Niro won, right?

(50:42):
Uh supporting actor.
But as a caveat, I will alsomention the two previous titles.
Um, excuse me, Bonnie and Clydeis there also, and it also won.
But there are two titles thatare on that history-making five
acting nominations that didn'twin a single one.
And that included Tom Jones,where Albert Finney, the great
Albert Finney, never won anOscar, nominated for lead actor

(51:05):
that year.
Such a wonderful, wonderfulactor, Albert Finney.
Um, but so Tom Jones nominatedtwo supporting actresses, two
supporting actors, actor doesn'twin any, and then Payden Place,
which is probably a little bitmore divisive.
Uh Lana Turner, I believe,nominated there.
Um, nominated for actress, twosupporting actors, two
supporting actresses, and losesit.
So it is not completely unheardof of tying that record for five

(51:28):
and failing to win.

SPEAKER_02 (51:29):
Right, but maybe it's you're right, and those are
those are very impressive stats.

SPEAKER_00 (51:33):
Certainly, those are the that's the 50s, though, in
the 70s.

SPEAKER_02 (51:36):
That's what I'm saying.
I I feel like in in more modernday, the chances of that
happening, I think, are less.
Absolutely.
And I also want to bring upanother point that if we're
talking about this uh this filmuh capitalizing on so many
acting nominations, then youalso have to talk about Warner
Brothers' other film, whichpeople perceive as being a film
that's also contending foracting nominations.

(51:58):
If you look at Gold Derby,that's all over the place.
So you do have Michael B.
Jordan for centers, you gotWunmy Mosaku for centers, you
got Joe Ray Lindell for centers,people want Miles Canton for
centers.
And so I'm gonna what I'm tryingto say with all that is that
it's very unlikely that WarnerBrothers will have two um films
vying for acting awards, twoacting behemoths.

(52:20):
Exactly.
Um typically, if you look attheir history, when they do have
two films in play, one of themis their sort of uh big budget
epic uh uh that gets a lot oftech nominations, and then
another vehicle is their actingvehicle.
Right.
And that's the film that getsthe acting nomination.

SPEAKER_01 (52:35):
Yeah, absolutely.

SPEAKER_02 (52:36):
Um the last time that Warner Brothers had was
able to double up in a categoryum and have them be from two
different movies, so not youknow, two nominees and
supporting actor, for example,from the same movie, but two
nominees and supporting actorfrom two different Warner
Brothers films.
The last time that happened wasI believe 1968, when they had

(52:57):
two big, big, big awards playersin Bonnie and Clyde and Cool
Hand Luke.
Two classics, two classic films.
Um, and Bonnie and Clyde is oneof the films that had five five
acting nominations.
That was one of the five.
If you look at that year in BestActor, um uh Paul Newman got
nominated for Coolhand Luke, andWarren Beatty got nominated for
Bonnie and Clyde, and then BestSupporting Actor, George Kennedy

(53:18):
won for Coolhand Luke, and GeneHackman was nominated for Bonnie
and Clyde.
That didn't happen in actress orsupporting actress, only um
Bonnie and Clyde was mentionedthere.
And so that was the last that'sthe last time that Warner
Brothers has had two differentfilms double up in an acting
category, and so I think that isa pretty damning stat for both
Sinners and One Battle showingup in supporting actors, showing

(53:42):
up in supporting actress,showing up in actors, showing up
in well, not an actress.

SPEAKER_00 (53:46):
Um I mean, I think that's really interesting that
you mentioned that, and ofcourse, that year it happened
twice, right?
Because they had Beatty and PaulNewman in Best Actor, and then
they had Gene Hackman and GeorgeKennedy, right, supporting
actors.
So it's kind of interesting, youknow, a year where they were
popular enough to have two ofthe top five best picture
movies, right?

(54:06):
They were able to do that.
And I think we we both agreethat so far this year they will
have two of the top five bestpicture movies One's and one
battle.
It'll be interesting to see ifthey can do that.
And I'll also say that it wasable to win one of the acting
categories because GeorgeKennedy won for Coolhead Luke.
Yeah, I think that's reallyfascinating.
I will mention something, whichis that it's interesting, at

(54:29):
least in the actor category,because it's still a competitive
actor, but Paul and Warren werealready nominees, I believe, by
that point.
Um, so that might help.
Um, that's something that, forexample, is gonna hurt a lot of
the actresses and supportingactors.
I think that's a great segueinto best supporting actors.
How about we start digging intowe do a deep vibe deep dive into

(54:52):
that category next?

SPEAKER_02 (54:53):
Right.
Okay, let's do that.
Uh for me, it's reallyinteresting because of the
acting categories, best actor isthe most competitive category,
but best supporting actress tome is the most fascinating
category.
Um, because there's a lot ofcontenders, but no one feels
safe, and only one contenderfeels like a lock.

(55:14):
Um, and that's Al Fanning.
Alfanning sentimental value,largely helped by you know being
one of the top actors of hergeneration, she's in the right
vehicle.
Um, so and the and the categoryis in flux enough that I think
she's the only lock in thiscategory.
Playing an actress, too.
Playing an actress.
Um, other than that, it'scompletely in flux, and you can

(55:36):
see basically 10 people gettingin for four spots, right?
And all of them, every singleone of them after Al Fanning has
big cons.
So big reasons why they couldmiss.
Um, talking about the Warner theWarner Brothers actresses,
again, Teana Taylor to me, in myopinion, would seem like the

(55:57):
pick from Warner Brothers.
I mean, from one battle afteranother.
Um, again, it's just a veryattention-calling part, it's a
very complex part, and shedominates that first, you know,
the prologue.

SPEAKER_00 (56:09):
I said that she's a she's essentially, and I don't
think this is much of a spoiler,but she's essentially the lead
for the first like 25 minutes.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 (56:17):
You know, it's just the kind of performance is just
speeding through, super, youknow, uh volatile.
And there's a party that wondershow much can we go, you know,
with this character that they'rethey're flying at, you know, 100
miles per hour, you know, andthen eventually, of course, it
crashes.
Right.
Um, and so, but then you haveuh, as we were saying, Regina

(56:41):
Hall um underutilized.
Could two of them make it in?
That's possible.
Chase Infinity, what's gonnahappen there?
Um and let's say, let's let'sbring up, we were mentioning the
statistic of the WarnerBrothers.
We have yet another WarnerBrothers contender in this
specific acting category in AmyMadigan for weapons, another

(57:02):
Warner Brothers film that didwell.
And so if you're following thislogic that we're saying, that
Warner Brothers shouldn't getin, you know, more than they
shouldn't get more than onemovie into supporting actors.
So again, you know, Regina Hall,Taylor Taylor, okay, that still
makes sense.
Taylor Taylor, Amy Madigan,okay, that's not what they do.
That doesn't happen.
It doesn't happen, it's notcommon.

(57:22):
Um, Regina Hall and Amy Madigan,again, not common.
Those are two different movies.
Regina Hall and Woody Mosaku,two different Warner Brothers
films.
Okay, and the last time thathappened was 1968.

SPEAKER_00 (57:33):
So you're saying that it's easier for like a
studio, even like someone likeWarner Brothers, typically to
double up in nominations whenthey both come from the same
movie.

SPEAKER_02 (57:42):
Right, exactly.
And so we have another WarnerBrothers contender that everyone
is completely high on, which isuh Amy Madigan, who leaves a big
impression in weapons.
I mean, we were very surprisedpost weapons that that was Amy
Madigan.
Um she's really she reallycommands the screen in that
film, and and she has probablythe toughest job of really being

(58:04):
able to pull off that character.
Right.
And she pulls it off.
Um, but this is that is not thisweapons is not the kind of film,
nor is it the type, the kind ofcharacter, nor is it the kind of
performance that gets nominated.

SPEAKER_00 (58:17):
Yeah, exactly.
I think for any Oscar.
Yeah, Weapons to me readsexactly like A Quiet Place from
2018, where it could benominated for a sag, it could be
nominated for a PGA, a writer'sguild award, and still end up
with a goose egg on Oscarnomination more.
It's just that that's the natureof the film.
Right.
And so it does not help AmyMadigan the fact that she's in

(58:37):
that particular film.

SPEAKER_02 (58:38):
Right.
And also that she's by herself.
Yeah.
You know, that she couldpotentially get in by herself as
opposed to Woonmi Mosaku, whocan get in with Sinners and any
of the one battle actresses thatcan get in with their movies,
she's by herself.
And so I think that's a bigdetriment.
And so it's an interesting, it'sa really interesting case.
If it were to happen, it'd bekind of cool because it's so

(58:59):
outside of what they nominate,but there's a lot going against
the nomination for that.
No, I'll say one of the biggestthings that's going for that
nomination is that thiscategory, and we've talked about
this before on previousepisodes, all the acting
categories should have at leastone veteran in the category.
And by veteran, we mean an actorwho's been there before and has

(59:20):
been nominated before.
Supporting actress only has onelog, and she happens to not be a
veteran.
That's Al Fanny.
Also, if you look at supportingactress, the pool of contenders
that we have for veterans tooccupy that quote unquote
veteran spot are limitedoptions.
And again, all of them withhandicaps.
Yes.
And so we've talked about AmyMadigan, right?

SPEAKER_00 (59:41):
We'll talk about now, for example.
Well, I will say before webefore we leave Amy Madigan, so
you're saying that WarnerBrothers is going to campaign
Regina Hall, Tayana Taylor,Chase Infinity, Amy Madigan, Uni
Musaku, and potentially HaleySteinfeld.
That's that's six supportingactresses.
Right, huge.
Which is just too many.

(01:00:01):
Way too many.
And you're also saying thatWarner Brothers typically, if
they get two, it's from the samemovie.
Right.
Now, I know that it's notunheard of.

SPEAKER_02 (01:00:10):
And then and then when they have two films, or
even three films, when they havetwo two films in contention, one
is their acting movie.
Right.
The other one is decidedly nottheir acting movie.

SPEAKER_00 (01:00:20):
I know that it's not unheard of for three
performances to get in from thesame movie in the same category.
And so you look at somethinglike, for example, Godfather
Part Two, where you had threesupporting actors, right?
Um, All About Eve, I believe,had three supporting actresses.
So it's not unheard of to getall three one battle girls in
and put Chase, Regina, andTayana.

(01:00:42):
That's not Uber crazy.
It's happened, but it's rare.
It's not common.
It's not common.
But what about the idea thatthey get one one battle girl in
and they get one Sinners girl inand they get Wood Me in, and
then they get Amy Madigan in.
Do you think that could happen?
No, that's that that that wehave not found a precedent for.
I do not think, right, that inour research we've been able to

(01:01:03):
find a studio distributor whowas able to get three different
performances from threedifferent movies into the same
acting category.
Right.
I think the closest we got wasmaybe the pandemic, but I don't
think that you know Netflix hasbeen able to hit, you know, you
know, in supporting actress, youif Netflix gets two, it'll be
from two different movies,possibly, or maybe two from the

(01:01:23):
same movie.
But very rarely are you gonnasee um so many nominees from
from the same distributor.
And so you think that's a bigthat hurts.
That's a big no.
Three different nominees fromWarner Brothers.

SPEAKER_02 (01:01:36):
Like more than 50% of the category full of like
Warner Brothers films from threedifferent films.
Three different Warner Brothersfilms, even if they've had an
amazing year.

SPEAKER_00 (01:01:43):
And I imagine that it must not help the fact that
weapons and sinners are both notnecessarily your conventional
acting role.

SPEAKER_02 (01:01:51):
And and I will also say that those particular films,
uh Weapons and Sinners, theythey hurt each other.
You know, because you know, Idon't necessarily see weapons as
a horror film, but certainlyplaying with horror elements,
and many people would considerit a horror film to some degree.
Weapons is clearly a horrorfilm.
Solda does that.
Right.
Weapons is clearly a horrorfilm.
So those two films really, youknow, hurt each other.

(01:02:14):
So there's no way that I can seeWumi Mosaku and um Amy Madigan.
Yeah, let's say that the WarnerBrothers stat gets broken and
then we since 1968, and nowwe're gonna put two Warner
Brothers films in the supportingactors category.
I feel very, very sure that itwill not be two horror films.

SPEAKER_01 (01:02:31):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (01:02:32):
To begin with, horror is not great for the
Academy for acting.
Um it happened last year to acertain degree, maybe if you
want to consider the substance ahorror film, but there was a lot
of subtext happening in thatfilm that was resonating with
voters that Weapons doesn'thave.

SPEAKER_01 (01:02:46):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (01:02:46):
You know, I think that Sinners has a subtext that
I think is you know evocativeand it's gonna speak to a large
group of voters.
Weapons doesn't have that.
Weapons is a straight-out horrorfilm through and through.

SPEAKER_01 (01:02:56):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (01:02:56):
Um and so you know, but Amy Madigan presents a very
uh uh again, one her biggestasset is that she is a veteran.
She fulfills the veteran spot,she fulfills the veteran spot.
She's probably of the veteranoptions.
If we were to just ignore theidea of what gets nominated
here, what doesn't get nominatedhere, and we just look at

(01:03:18):
acclaim, we look at, you know, aperformance that that people
have been talking about, thatpeople have been clamoring for,
she would she would take a spot,you know, because of all the
other options, she's the onethat seems most, you know, um uh
possible if we're taking intoaccount what people think and
what people praise.
Everyone else has handicaps, Ithink, bigger handicaps.

SPEAKER_00 (01:03:40):
Well, so who are some of those other veterans who
are trying to angle for thatspot?

SPEAKER_02 (01:03:43):
Right.
So I think a big one that youand I have, you know, caught
we've talked about it in aprevious podcast, is Emily Blunt
in the smashing machine.
Why is Emily Blunt a very goodoption here to fulfill the
veteran's spot the the veteranspot is because number one, her
film number one, she's playing areal life figure.

(01:04:03):
And so on top of fulfilling theveteran spot, these acting
categories, and if you look atthe trends, this is very true,
these acting categories tend tohave at least one performance
that is based on a real lifefigure.
Right.
Um now it's better when thosereal life figures are more
iconic figures, you know.
That's that's that's that'strue.

(01:04:24):
Historical.
And so and so in in the smashingmachine, Dwayne Johnson is
playing, you know, a morewell-known figure than
necessarily uh uh Emily Blunt isplaying as his girlfriend Don
Staples.
I get that, but at least she'sstill a real life figure, at
least she's a veteran.
Um the problem is from peoplewho've seen the film, we have

(01:04:44):
not seen the film, we're lookingforward to it very soon.
She has one of she's one of themost underwritten things about
the movie that she's able toovercome because she's such a
talented actress.
Um, that she's able to sort ofshade in these dimensions and
this depth that's not there onthe page.
But by and large, I think a lotof people feel like it's an
underwritten part.

(01:05:05):
Um, I someone I think EricAnderson on Twitter referred to
it and I told you about it aslike a uh hair and nails
performance, and that got achuckle out of me.
Um and so, you know, there'sthere's been, you know, on
Twitter, at least film Twitter,you know, people have been a
little bit more divided dividedon the film, but the film has
good critics.
It won a directing award atVenice.

(01:05:27):
I think it's gonna do well onthe award circuit.
I think Dwayne Johnson stands toget his first nomination.
That helps the paraphrase.
Right, exactly.
It helps that Dwayne Johnson cantake in Emily Blunt into the
supporting actress category.
What really hurts Emily Blunt isthat she was just there two
years ago for Oppenheimer andsupporting actress.
Usually when they when we getrepeats, we've talked about this

(01:05:49):
in other episodes.
There should be there should besome kind of category shift.
You're going from lead tosupporting, supporting to lead.
Here it's still a supportingcategory.
And what's worse is that there'sa similarity between what she's
playing here, which is sort of asupportive partner, even though
the archetype is the same.
The archetype is the same, eventhough again it's not your
typical supportive partner part,but it's still your supportive
partner.
That's what she played inOppenheimer that she got

(01:06:11):
nominated for two years ago.

SPEAKER_01 (01:06:13):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (01:06:13):
And so it's hard for me to see the academy, the the
the the act the actress branchsay, Yeah, we're going to
nominate Emily Blunt just twoyears after her last her first
nomination for Oppenheimer forsomething, you know, in the
similar vein to that.

SPEAKER_00 (01:06:27):
That sort of gets me to that idea of do we think the
Academy is all of a sudden overthe moon with Emily Blunt after
they waited so many years tofinally nominate her?
And they didn't nominate her,but like she had to get in with
13 nominations for Oppenheimer.
You know what I mean?
Right.
Um, and so I do think that thatmakes me question like, even
beyond the real person necessitythat we have, if you look at a

(01:06:51):
year like 2022, which is rare, ayear like 2022 supporting
actress did not have any realpeople.
In fact, there was a lack ofreal people throughout the
acting categories, just Alvisand Marilyn Monroe.
Um, but so I do wonder like, canthe Academy go from snubbing
Emily Blunt like for 12 yearsand to nominating her with one

(01:07:11):
year in between?
Right.
That's a big question.
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (01:07:13):
But I also say that that might be something that's
going in her favor because Ithink most people would are very
were very um felt the same waythat her Emily Blunt receiving
her first nomination for anOppenheimer is strange, you
know, because she's a verytalented actor and because she's
been in very good projects whereshe's deserved uh recognition.
And so the fact that Oppenheimerwas her first nomination that

(01:07:34):
feels late.
So, in a way, some voters mightfeel, yeah, she might she might
be getting her second nom prettyfast and in the same category,
but it's because we owe we oweher that because she's behind,
sort of like how ScarletJohansson got two nominations in
the same year.
Like she should have alreadybeen nominated, so it makes
sense that she got two in thesame year.
All right.
So I think that's something thatshe could that that they could

(01:07:56):
use in her favor.
Okay.
Um, I really like that she'splaying a real life figure, and
I really like that she can becarried into the category via
Dwayne Johnson and the smashingmachine, uh, which is more than
I can say for something like AmyMadigan, who'd probably be
getting in by herself if thefilm doesn't end up getting on
for something like makeup.
So Emily Blunt is a good option,but also not a great option.

(01:08:16):
And I will say, you know, as wekind of start talking about the
other contenders, it gets hardto see who's gonna win this
category, you know, becauseagain, everyone has their cons.
I don't think Deana Taylor canwin for this for for her sort of
you know prickly part.
You know, uh Regina Hall, if shegets nominated, I don't think
so.
Uh I don't see El Fanningwinning for this either for
sentimental value.

(01:08:37):
At least if Emily Blunt getsnominated, she might have the
career and the respect from herpeers to parlay that into an
eventual win, you know.
Um, you know, which would beweird if The Rock doesn't win,
which I'm not seeing right now,that the one that ends up
winning for that movie is thesupportive partner part.
Yeah, that's kind of weird.
But she's has the career that Ithink some some voters would

(01:08:58):
say, well, listen, I don't knowwho to who to position here for
a win, so it's gonna be EmilyBlunt because of her career.
I understand.
That helps.
Um, another person is GlennClose for the veteran spot,
right?
For the veteran spot is GlennClose for uh Wake Up Dead Man,
which got very very good reviewsout of TIFF.
But the Knives Out franchise hasnever been nominated for an act
for an acting award, despitehaving stellar casts.

(01:09:19):
Always, always hasn't even beenon it for a second ensemble.
Uh um, and so there's a part ofme that I think voters see the
Knives Out franchise as just notan acting player.
Maybe because they're so stackedwith actors, so it's hard to
rally around one, or maybeagain, I I don't know exactly
what it is.
Maybe no one can stand out toomuch.

(01:09:40):
I don't know exactly what it is,but it's very true that no
Knives Out film ever gets evertranscends just a screenplay
nomination.

SPEAKER_00 (01:09:49):
I was gonna say that maybe it's that they lack the
pedigree of such a celebratedactor amongst the amongst the
ensemble, like Glenn Close is.
But if you remember Knives Out,Christopher Plummer is amazing
in that film too.
And if you really wanted to, youcould have nominated Christopher
Plummer for that.

SPEAKER_01 (01:10:04):
Yeah, right.

SPEAKER_00 (01:10:05):
And so I I think you're right.
There's something here about howvoters just do not respect the
individual performers of theKnives Out franchise, and that's
certainly a stigma that GlennClose is going to have to
battle.

SPEAKER_02 (01:10:17):
Now, I will say, going in Glenn Close's favor is
that if somehow Glenn Close wasable to land into this
particular supporting actressfield, I feel that she would
have a huge chance of winningbecause they could parlay her
nomination into a career win.
Uh, which she, you know, noeveryone wants everyone wants to
see Glenn Close win an Oscaralready.

(01:10:37):
She doesn't have one.
She was snubbed for um whatseemed like was going to be her
at time for the wife.
Um, people who've seen the moviethink that this is her best
performance since the wife,which is interesting.
I don't know.
I've heard that she has a coupleof Oscar moments.
Um, and so in a way, if somehowthey were able, if Netflix was
able to make this happen, Ireally feel that this could

(01:10:59):
quickly turn from a surprisenomination into a win for this
category, which is nuts.
But that's sort of the kind ofthat's the thing about Glenn
Close.
You know, if you put her into acategory, having, you know,
what, nine nominations, eightnominations without a win,
people are gonna want to see herwin.
And if you don't have anyone inthis category that you see as
someone that, you know, is adefinite winner, she's

(01:11:19):
absolutely gonna be catapultedto number one.
We had also sort of mentionedthis idea where Netflix is
pretty good in this category.
Netflix supporting actors.
Since Netflix has gotten into sointo the Oscar race in 2017 with
Mudbound, they have only missedBest Supporting Actress once.
And they missed it in 2022.
For the same the same year thatwe're saying there was no real

(01:11:41):
the last time there was no reallife figure in one of the acting
categories.

SPEAKER_00 (01:11:45):
That's also true.
But I will say 2022, it'sinteresting that we're
referencing it because it couldbe prescient, because that year
that they did not get asupporting actress in, they were
campaigning Janelle Monet foranother knives out movie.
For another knives out movie,and Janelle Monet was, you could
argue, do because she wasalready in Moonlight and she was
in Hidden Figures and she'sexcellent in Glass Onion, right?

(01:12:08):
And they still did not manage toget her in.
And so I think what the onlyyear Netflix didn't get a
supporting actress in?

SPEAKER_02 (01:12:14):
That's the only year that Netflix has missed, and
that's crazy if you think aboutit.

SPEAKER_00 (01:12:18):
Yeah.
Um, that's really going forGlenn, because I don't think
Netflix has another supportingactress here, really.
Well, they they potentiallypotentially have someone, and
we'll get to her.
Well, I will say this aboutGlenn too, and we talked about
it also, is I I like just not aveteran nominee, but a veteran
actor in this race.
And so if you look at AmyMadigan and Glenn Close and the
amount of years they have inthis industry and the variety

(01:12:40):
and diversity of their work, Ithink supporting actress like
they like to have that.
They like to have that IsabellaRossellini and the Jamie Lee
Curtis's Angela Bassett's, youknow, actors who've been there
for so many years and have beenin so many different kinds of
parts, and then Glenn Close sortof fills that need also, right?

SPEAKER_02 (01:12:55):
100%.
And in a way, it's it's a toughcall between a knives out film
that's never been uh uh embracedfor acting and a horror film
that would typically never getembraced in this in this uh in
the awards category.
Interesting, yeah.
Um, and then I think the lastveteran that we have to talk
about is Ariana Grande for uhWicked, and it's it's crazy to

(01:13:18):
think of Ariana Grande as aveteran because she got her
first nomination for verylimited filmography last year
for Wicked.
I think a lot of people expecther to repeat, but if you look
at statistically, both her andCynthia Revo, you know They're
battling history here.
There's a there's a big uhthere's a big historical problem
here.
The last time that uh uh anactor was able to have

(01:13:40):
back-to-back nominations fromone year to the next, playing
the same character was BingCrosby.
Yeah.
Um going my way.
Going my way in 1945, and he wonfor lead actor.
He was nominated the followingyear for a different film called
The Bell of St.
The Bells of St.
Mary.
Bells of St.
Mary.
Where he played the samecharacter in 1946.
Right.

(01:14:00):
So it's not technically a I Idon't I don't think it's a
sequel to the film, but he'splaying the same character in
both films.
He got nominated.
But that's the only time it hasever happened.
We're talking about 1945 and1946, folks.
I mean I mean, you certainlyhave had moments, you certainly
have had in the past um uhcharacter uh actors who are
playing the same character getnominated more than once.

(01:14:22):
Right.
You know, you think of Al Pacinoand The Godfather, right?
He got an honor for Godfatherpart one and Godfather part two,
but it wasn't back to back.
No, he had a cervical nominationin between, and there was also a
category shift.
I think he was going from uhfrom supporting to lead uh for
The Godfather.
You also had Kate Blanchett, whowas able to be nominated as
Elizabeth uh for Elizabeth in1998, and then again, several

(01:14:47):
years later in 2007, I believe.
Almost a decade right forElizabeth the Golden Age.
So it never happens back toback.
The only time it's happened is1946.
And if it were to happen, if itwere to happen, I have a hard
time picturing right now that itwould be Ariana Grande, who just
doesn't have the filmographyyet, you know, to sort of I
think uh merit uh breakinghistory.

SPEAKER_00 (01:15:11):
I mean, I I agree with you.
I don't know how how much of afilmography Bon Crosby had when
it happened.
So that might that's aninteresting point.
But I will say that that year,and we referenced this on our
episode on Best Actress.
If you want to check it out, um,you can just um go to the
previous episode before this.
But you know, what's sort ofinteresting is that year when
Ben Crosby, when he goes back toback those years, when he wins

(01:15:34):
for going my way, he's alsocompeting against his co-star
and lead actor, right, who endedup winning supporting active
actor.
It's the only time in Oscarhistory where one performance is
nominated as both supporting andlead.
And so after that, they said,Yeah, we should probably make a
rule that we can't have DanielKaluya nominated as lead for
Judas and the Black Messiah andsupporting for Judas and the

(01:15:54):
Black Messiah.
Right.
Uh and so like it's just so itwas a weird time in general,
right?
You know, the last time thatthat history broke.

SPEAKER_02 (01:16:00):
I do think that some people see Wicked as an entity,
so in a way that kind of I thinkthey explain the possible, you
know, history breaking thing as,you know, it makes sense because
Wicked is an entity that's justsplit in two.
But the point is that it doesn'thappen back to back.
And if you look at the amount ofactors that even get nominated

(01:16:21):
back to back, Coman Domingo didit last year uh with um Sing
Sing, right?
I think it's a very smallchalamet's gonna try to do it
this year.
It's a very small group thatthey sort of, you know, I don't
know for lack of a better word,allow to get nominated back to
back.
Right.
You know, and I think yourfilmography and your presence in
the film industry has a lot todo with whether they want to do

(01:16:44):
that or not.

SPEAKER_00 (01:16:44):
We mentioned this in the Best Actress episode, also,
that historically we actuallyhave had three performers go
back to back in nominations from09 to 010 when Jeff Bridges,
Cullen Firth, and Jeremy Rennerwere all nominated back to back.
Um interestingly, they neverstrict it was never strictly for
the same categories.

(01:17:04):
And so if you have Chalamet,Cynthia, and Ariana get in, not
only do they go back to back,they go back to back in the
exact same categories, nocategory shift.
So I don't think that that hashappened.
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (01:17:16):
And I also say that in the in the in the example
you're bringing up, they're notplaying the same character.
Yes.
And it's not the same franchise,they're different films.
Yes.
You know, I think you know, abig handicap here that we're
talking about is that it is thesame character and that it is
the same film.

SPEAKER_00 (01:17:31):
I kind of look at it like remember Ian McCallan for
Fellowship of the Ring?
He was never really able to benominated after that for either
Two Towers or Return of theKing.
In fact, none of the Lord of theRings actors were able to do
that.
And I think that touches uponanother factor here for Ariana
Grande, which is not unlike theweapons thing, which is gonna be
an interesting headline if anyof this gets any traction.

(01:17:51):
But playing a witch, you know,is not necessarily the most
Oscar-baked role.
It was nominated, but will thatbe the role that goes, would
that be the role that breakshistory?
I guess is the question.
And I do wonder like, could youreally have a category with Aunt
Cladys and Glinda the Glinda theGood?
I have a really hard time.
I mean, I know that it's it it'sit's gonna, like I said, it's

(01:18:12):
gonna be a headline, but I dowonder how much we can stretch
our sort of non-Oscar roleinclusion here.
Right.
And I don't even want to putWound Me because Wound Me is a
whole nother thing here.
Right.
Um, so I think that that'sanother element going against
it.
I will say one veteran that youmaybe overlooked, still to be
determined how much of a factorthey're gonna be, is Gwyneth

(01:18:35):
Paltrow.
Oh, yes, like from MartySupreme.

SPEAKER_02 (01:18:37):
Gwyneth Paltrow, I think, is a very interesting
case because it would be acategory shift, which lead to
supporting, which is uh uh anasset.
Right.
Um, we have yet to see themovie.
We don't know how big of a partshe's gonna play.
I do know that I've heard somerumors from the cinematographer
that's that this movie has like40 characters, which is very
safty.
Uh exactly.
If you see the safty films,they're big, they tend to have

(01:19:02):
ensembles um where everyonecontributes a spark to it.
But this they're usuallycentered around one anchor.
Right.
So if you look at Uncut Gems,there's several actors in that
film.
D.
Menzel is great in that film.
Kevin Garnett.
Uh Kevin Garnet.
Yeah, Kevin Garnett's great.
So, but there's one anchor, andthe one anchor is was Adam
Sandler.
In this case, it's TimothyChalamet.

(01:19:23):
And the way their films tend towork, there's there tends to be
one anchor, and around them,there's all these little
colorful spots, but that's allthey are colorful spots.

SPEAKER_00 (01:19:31):
And even here in this movie, you have Gwyneth
Paucher, right?
But you have Fran Dresher rightthere.
Right, exactly.
Right?
Um, who is uh president of theSAG, but you also have um, I
believe her name is uh Odessa,yeah, right?
Um, who's actually the thedaughter, I believe, of um the
wonderful uh actress uh PamelaAdlon.
Oh and so, you know, again, justthis idea that Marty Supreme is

(01:19:53):
going to be an ensemble.
Right, right.

SPEAKER_02 (01:19:54):
So I'm not sure about how much Gwyneth is going
to be given.
I also think that voters, Ithink, might be a little
skeptical to welcome her back sosoon.
And I say so soon, you know,it's been several years, but
she's taken sort of a break inbetween, you know, the last time
she was in a film.
Hasn't been too active.
You know, she hasn't beenactive, she's been a little bit
more active with her lifestylebrand.
I don't know if voters see thatas a positive or as a negative.

(01:20:17):
I think that that played a partin Angelina Jolie not getting
nominee last year.
I think the fact that voters,you know, see her every now and
then, you know, I think made itless attractive to them.
Yeah.
To want to cite her for anotherlead actress nomination.

SPEAKER_00 (01:20:31):
Right.
I mean, um, someone who's beenwaiting longer than Gwyneth for
another nomination istechnically Amy Madigan, right?
Who got on in the 80s, Gwynethwon in the 90s.
But I will say something to heradvantage, right?
To Gwynneth, and we've talkedabout this sometimes, is the
idea that if you win an actingOscar, you tend to be nominated
again at some point somewheredown the line.

(01:20:51):
Very seldom is it that you'releft out.

SPEAKER_02 (01:20:54):
Um if you look at the recent history, one of the
few people to have yet to benominated again is Gwyneth
Paltrake.
Exactly.
And someone like Halle Berry.

SPEAKER_00 (01:21:02):
Exactly.
And but but usually, like evenyou know, actresses who are who
get less parts.
You look at uh Helen Hunt whenshe got nominated for her wonder
performance in the sessions.
Sometimes voters, when they havethe opportunity to nominate an
Oscar winning actor again, andit's been some time, they don't
pass that off.
That could potentially beworking Gwynniff's advantage is
that you know, given her herstatus as an Oscar winner,

(01:21:25):
statistically speaking, at somepoint she should be nominated
again.

SPEAKER_02 (01:21:29):
100%.
I'm just not sure this is thevehicle, and I'm just not sure
after an acting break thatthat's the right moment.
Right.
Um, again, I just don't thinkthat that's a very attractive
option for voters, but we'llsee.
Maybe she has a great part.
And I do like that she would.
I mean, if Marty Supreme is aplayer, I do like that she would
get in with her lead actor.
And so in a similar sort ofEmily Blunt kind of way, she's

(01:21:51):
sort of supporting the lead.
That's also one reason why I doabsolutely not see both Emily
Blunt and Guenapaltro getting inin the same category in the same
year because they do too much ofthe same thing.
I agree.
They so they they support theirlead.
So I think it's if if it if itdoes happen, it's one or the
other.

SPEAKER_00 (01:22:08):
It's Emily Blunt or Gwyneth Paltro.
I mean, I will say that althoughit's not common, A24 did have
that fantastic year, 2022.
And again, we keep referencingthe same year.
I wonder if it's really going tobe tied into this year, but they
got um three performances in,two from Everything, Everywhere
All at Once, and one for HongChao in um The Whale.

(01:22:28):
I do wonder if part of thecaveat here is that The Whale,
and in the fact that BrendanFraser won and Everything
Everywhere All at Once, whichwas the big winner that year for
Best Picture, those two filmsare not necessarily Marty
Supreme or The Smashing Machine.
So I I I think it's notimpossible, but I my gut says

(01:22:48):
the same thing as yours, whichis that they do too much of the
same thing.

SPEAKER_02 (01:22:51):
Right.
I'll also say that the trendrecently, post I think 2019 or
2020, is you know, thissupporting actress category
tends to have at most oneveteran.

SPEAKER_01 (01:23:04):
Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 (01:23:04):
And so I think I think we've been seeing a trend
where post-2020 they've beenwanting to be as inclusive as
they can.
They want new people to benominated.
Right.
They want new people.
And so that you've seensomething like supporting
actress have one veteran only.
Right.
You know, in 2021, it was umJudy Dench only.
In 2022, it was Angela Bassettonly.

(01:23:24):
In 2023, it was, I believe, uhJudy Jody Foster only.
And in 20 and last year, 2024,it was Felicity Jones.
So the trend right now is tohave as many new people, I
think, as we can have.
And so, yes, supporting actressis pretty volatile, pretty in
flux, but there's a very goodchance that they're just gonna

(01:23:44):
be okay with one veteran and nothaving more than one.
It could be a year where theyhave more than one, but that's
been the trend at least.

SPEAKER_00 (01:23:51):
Right.
I completely agree with you.
They may just be happy withgetting one performance to
fulfill the veteran spot andinviting as many people as
possible, especially when theyhave the opportunity to
spotlight new performers,up-and-coming, you know, um
actors.
So I think that that's part ofit.

SPEAKER_02 (01:24:05):
And on that note, I think we can mention a contender
like Jennifer Lopez for Kiss ofthe Spider Woman.
She was notoriously snubbed in2019 for hustlers.
Um in Kiss of the Spider Woman,she gets to embody some of the
you know greatest 1940s, 1950sstarlets.
You're seeing her in the light,then you don't typically see
her.
We don't typically see her inperiod pieces, you know, with

(01:24:26):
these Colleen Atwood, you know,dazzling costumes and these,
it's her first musical, which iscrazy.
Um, and uh, you know, we don'tsee her sort of inhabiting this
starlet space, you know, youknow, she absolutely gives
these, you know, uh magnificentsort of uh 1940, 1950s vibes
that I think could speak tovoters, especially older voters.

(01:24:47):
Um uh it's true that unlikeHustlers, she has a film that's
not as critically acclaimed asHustlers.
Um, it's sort of mixed, leaningon positive, but it's not the
unanimous praise that Hustlerswas.
We also have the the possibilitythat the film is not gonna be as
big of a box office hit asHustlers was.
Um uh, you know, we'll see soon,it's coming out soon.

(01:25:09):
So all those are things thatshe's gonna have to sort of
contend with.

SPEAKER_00 (01:25:13):
But you trade it off, right?
Because in and of itself, it's amore sort of legacy prestige
project.
That's the other thing, yes,that it's a legacy project.
You're working with Bill Condon,you have a a movie who has luck
in this category, who has a lotof luck with this category and
actually has made big musicalsthat they've embraced, right?
Um, but also there's just thisidea that it's uh adapted from

(01:25:34):
Broadway, which really helps,and you have the legacy of
Cheetah Rivera there, but thenyou also have the fact that the
movie was nominated for BestPicture in 1985, it even won an
Oscar for William Hurt for BestActor, right?
And so I do think you it's atrade-off, right?
You trade off, you know,wonderful Lorene Scafari and
wonderful critics, and you tradethat off for you know having
this pedigree and this sort ofvisual aspect and this old

(01:25:58):
school Hollywood that's gonnaappeal to a more classic type of
voter.
Um, and I think that's actuallysomething that's really going in
her advantage, right?

SPEAKER_02 (01:26:05):
Right.
And I also think, you know, ifwe're talking about putting in,
you know, or embracing newvoters, it's really odd to have
someone like Jennifer Lopez nothave an Oscar nomination yet,
especially when you look at herfilmography and you look at, you
know, uh very attention-callingtitles like Out of Sight, like
Selena, that's still consideredan iconic film by many, right?
Like Hustlers, just mostrecently.

(01:26:27):
It's kind of weird to see her atthis point in her career, three
decades into her career, whereshe is yet to have an Oscar
nomination.
That's crazy.

SPEAKER_00 (01:26:35):
Right.
Um I think that also voterswould like the idea of
including, you know, some umLatin American performers.
Exactly.

SPEAKER_02 (01:26:41):
And Kiss of the Spider Woman is one of the
probably biggest contenders tosort of be able to parlay its,
you know, uh Latin Americantalent at the foreground.
Yeah, you know, that and andI'll also say that I think to
Jennifer's uh benefit, you know,Kiss of the Spider-Woman is
coming out at a very importanttime in our historical landscape

(01:27:01):
where the queer community isbeing very marginalized
politically.
It's a very volatile, dangeroustime for members of the queer
community, members of thetransgender community.
This film in particular dealsvery directly with transgender
issues um in a way that the 1985film uh was more scared to go.

(01:27:22):
It goes to these um uh it goesto these places, it's very queer
forward.
And so I think justthematically, the film stands to
resonate in this particularperiod of time.
It's an important film, I think,for this particular period of
time.
And I think embracing her fornomination and supporting
actress in a way is embracingthe film's themes and what the

(01:27:44):
film is supporting, the causeit's supporting.
And so I think that's anotherasset that's part of her
narrative and her contention.

SPEAKER_00 (01:27:50):
I also think that, like again, you know, as opposed
to performances like Wake UpDead Man or Weapons, I do think
that there is going to be, youknow, moments, pockets in this
sort of award circuit whereyou're going to uh congratulate
the achievement of both DiegoLuna and especially Tonya 2.
And so there's this idea thatshe's not really, you know, sort

(01:28:11):
of by herself.
She's in she's among thesereally other great performances.
Right.
Um the categories might be verycompetitive, but I certainly
think that the quality of theperformance is gonna have Tonya
2 on people's minds throughout.
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (01:28:23):
And also that the film, you know, whether or not
how many nominations it can getis still a question mark, but it
certainly has a pedigree that,for example, something like
Hustlers didn't have.
Right.
You know, we have the Colony andWood uh at wood uh costumes, but
we also have the productiondesign, yeah, both kinds of
which is attention calling, youknow, and recreating this 1940s,
1950s space.
You know, um uh we have apossible original song uh that's

(01:28:45):
uh that would be a nominationfor Candor and Ebb.
Yeah, which I can't help butthink, you know, some
songwriters in the song in thein the original song branch are
going to want to nominate Candorand Ebb.
Yeah, you know, so there's apotential for this film to get
more than one nomination that Ithink some people are sleeping
on.
I agree, you know, that makesher a more formidable,
formidable contender than, forexample, someone that on paper

(01:29:06):
seems like a more formidableone, like Amy Madigan, because
of all the buzz that's aroundher, but she might get in by
herself, right?
You know, um to the city.
Exactly.
Right, exactly.
Legacy project versus horrorfilm.
So I think that there's a lot ofuh um assets that are in the
Jennifer Lopez contender um thatI think people are not paying
attention to.

SPEAKER_00 (01:29:25):
Right.
I mean, I I certainly think itit's it's right there.
Um, I think someone new, also,you know, really talented, um,
has had a really goodfilmography.
I wonder if she's in the rightproject or not.
We're gonna have to see when itcomes out.
But like some people have beentalking about Rebecca Ferguson.

SPEAKER_02 (01:29:40):
Right, and House of Dynamite.
That's something that's someoneelse that I wanted to mention in
terms of this uh stat that youknow Netflix hasn't missed.
That's right.
Only in 2022.
Another supporting actresscontender that they do have if
they don't go the Glenn Closeroute is Rebecca Ferguson for
House of Dynamite, who I thinkuh people have been uh praising
as you know, she leaves animpression.
She's in the the She's in theshe's in what people consider

(01:30:02):
the you know the the firstchapter, the the the strongest
chapter of the film.
We did hear some rumblings onTwitter that there's some people
who are not necessarily happywith the stuff.

SPEAKER_00 (01:30:11):
Yeah, we we we sort of alluded to that in the
beginning with New York.
We'll cover that next week.

SPEAKER_02 (01:30:15):
We'll cover that next week.
Um but you know, uh I wonder ifa film and we've talked about
this.
I wonder if a film like House ofDynamite can really get any
actor in.
I mean, it's stacked with withan incredible cast from people
who've yet to be recognized aswell, Idris Alba, Tracy Lutz,
people who can certainly make aplay for their categories, but

(01:30:36):
maybe Catherine Bigelow hascreated the kind of film where
everyone is sort of on an evenground.

SPEAKER_01 (01:30:41):
Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 (01:30:41):
And if you look at Catherine Bigelow's history, she
she tends to have goodperformances always in her
films, but they don't tend totranslate into acting
nominations.
And the Her Locker, her biggestfilm yet, it only got one acting
nomination.
Yeah.
Uh for Zero Dark 30, it only gotone acting nomination.
And both of them were for lead.
Yeah.
So it's sort of this idea thatin her, you know, well-made, you

(01:31:02):
know, well-calibrated ensembles,there's an anchor.
And that's sort of the anchor isthe is is the one that grabs all
the attention.
And he or she's made a film thatdoesn't have an anchor.
Right.
She or she's made a film wherethere is no lead, right, and all
the chapters are segmented.
Right.
And in a way, you're only ableto follow this actor, this
character for 18, 20 minutes,and then you move on to the

(01:31:24):
next.
It just doesn't feel like thekind of structure that lends
itself to acting nominations.

SPEAKER_00 (01:31:29):
I think you're right on the money on that point.
And I'll also say that, youknow, after they're hurt locker,
the more her films have sort ofexperimented with this idea of,
you know, examining process andexamining procedure, whether
it's Zero Dark 30 or House ofDynamite, the more she has a
wonderful ensemble, you know, KyChandler, James Gandolfini in
Zero Dark 30, Jason Clark, uh, alot of great performances, uh,

(01:31:51):
Joy Dritton.
Yet nonetheless, because they'reso concentrated on procedure, on
process, right, you know, onsort of the systemic flow of the
narrative, right?
It doesn't necessarily just lenditself to a performance um
that's gonna draw everyone'sattention.
Certainly Jessica Chastain isthere and she's a surrogate for

(01:32:12):
the audience, but I think we'remissing that in this movie.
And again, this movie whichcovers, you know, again, the
procedure, the process of whathappens when you're sort of um
put into this nuclear ambush.
I think that's something that'sgoing to hurt Rebecca Ferguson,
even if even if people say sheis memorable in it.

SPEAKER_02 (01:32:29):
Right, exactly.
And so, you know, then you havesome, you know, uh outside
contenders, you know, KirstenDunst got uh good mentions, good
mentions for Roofman.
How much is Roofman a thing?
I'm not so.
Maybe yeah, might it's gonnait's coming out soon.
We'll see.
Um, maybe a big box office couldhelp.
Um, she did recently getnominated, exactly, and and and

(01:32:51):
it hasn't been that many yearssince.
And it took forever to finallynominate the great Kirsten
Dunst.
There's no category shift, andthen you have um uh Nina Haas
and head of, which are people uhpremiered at TIFF that got
generally good reviews, um, andpeople actually were very, very
much, you know, uh taken withher performance, yeah, taken
with her performance.

(01:33:11):
Um, but there's a big questionmark as to how Amazon or an I
mean uh Amazon MGM is gonnahandle that movie.
Right now it seems like theirbig play is after the hunt, and
that film is gonna get theaterreleases, right, you know, all
over the country.
And um they've put sort of HETAon the back of the room.
They're gonna put they're gonnasaddle HETA with like uh maybe
like you know, New York and LAonly, and then go straight to

(01:33:34):
Prime.
Yeah, which doesn't result inacting combinations.

SPEAKER_00 (01:33:37):
And I think the same thing, sort of after the hunt
seems to be Amazon MGM's bigplay, and then um Aut Every has
her fans, but I think that's thefilm is just not taking off the
critics the way theyanticipated.
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (01:33:48):
And also if you I mean if you look at that film, I
think you know people were moreexcited about you know Julia
Roberts, possibly MichaelStolberg.

SPEAKER_00 (01:33:54):
But even then they're gonna have to like
wrestle to get those spots.
Right, right.
And so I mean, is that everyonefor supporting actress then?

SPEAKER_02 (01:34:00):
Um, I think those are the main contenders, you
know.
I mean, Haley's timefield, likewe talked about Wound Me and
Haley.
Yeah, yeah, can they turn thatinto a nomination for another
horror film?
Yeah, it's tough because Haley'salready she was already there,
right?
For she well, I mean, in in somesense, she could be a veteran,
you know, because she wasalready there.
That's really again like theAriana Grande thing.
It's hard to think about theseyoung actors as these young

(01:34:22):
performers as veterans already.
Um uh, but you know, it doesn'tfeel it doesn't feel I mean,
Wound Me has the biggerspotlight in that movie, doesn't
feel like Hayley Steinfle hasenough to get in for that movie.
So I think that we've mainly runthrough the contenders, and as
you can see, all over the place.
This is a this is I think thiscategory is fascinating.
And it's hard, it's it's uh likeI beat my brain trying to figure

(01:34:46):
it out like who who are thefinal five?
Because right now I've got oneand that's it.
Um, and even when you look atthis wide field of contenders,
it's hard because we've justmentioned many cons to all of
them.
It's hard to see a winner, youknow, which makes it a
particularly exciting butfrustrating race because where's
the winner here?

SPEAKER_00 (01:35:05):
Yeah, you know, it's tough.
Yeah, I I completely agree.
Um, and so I mean, what are wethinking right now for
supporting actress?

SPEAKER_02 (01:35:11):
Right now for supporting actress, it's I mean,
again, it's really tough rightnow, man.
But I think Al Fanning is theonly lock.
I think possibly we can get in.
We need we need at least oneveteran, I think, especially
since there are options, there'sjust not great options.

SPEAKER_00 (01:35:30):
I will say in the year 2011, they went veteran
less.
Oh no, I'm wrong.
No, no, because Janet McTearn.
Janet McTear or Albert Nas.
Right, exactly.
So we need a veteran.

SPEAKER_02 (01:35:40):
We need a veteran here.
Again, there are no many, thereare not many great options.
Right now, I'm gonna say thatthe veteran spot should go to a
supporting performer that islifting up their lead.
So I would say either EmilyBlunt or Gwyneth Paltrow.
I don't love the acting breakfrom Gwyneth Paltrow.
I give the edge to Emily Bluntbecause she's playing a real

(01:36:01):
life figure.

SPEAKER_01 (01:36:02):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (01:36:02):
Okay, that's two.
Um, I someone from One Battlehas to get in.
I'm gonna say right now thatTiana Taylor, I I can we've
talked about this.
I can especially see her gettinga lot of critics' awards
mentions.
I think she can ride that into anomination if she ends up
missing some of the bigger uhprecursors.
So I'm gonna say Tiana Taylor.

(01:36:23):
Then it gets really tough.
But I'm gonna say at this momentI like the category, and if you
look back at supporting actors,I like there being a sort of you
know, a presence from an actorthat's been in the business for
a while, you know, and yes,Glenn Close fits that bill and
would be an easy winner, Iguess, because of her career,

(01:36:44):
but I don't love the knife out,knives out thing.
So I'm gonna give the edge toAmy Madigan for another Warner
Brothers film that you know,Warner Brothers has had an
incredible year.
I can certainly see two WarnerBrothers films get in right now.
At least Amy Madigan wouldfulfill a veteran spot, sort of
uh the presence of someone who'sbeen in the business for a long
period of time.

(01:37:04):
Um, and you know, people haveseen her work, you know, for for
many, many years.
She's been at it since the 80s.

SPEAKER_01 (01:37:11):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (01:37:12):
Um, so I'm gonna say right now, Amy Madigan, even
though I don't feel great aboutit.
And then I'm gonna say thatJennifer Lopez has the right
ingredients to make it into thiscategory after being snubbed in
2019.
She's completing one of thosecycles that we talk about, you
know, um, uh, that often happenswith these actors who miss
previously, and then after abouta seven-year period, more or

(01:37:32):
less, they have anotheropportunity to bat and they get
in.
There's Broadway, there'sCheetah Rivera, there's the
Sonia Braga of it all, there'sthe 1985 film of Kiss of the
Spider Woman.
There's Bill Conan, there'smuke, there's musicals, there's
again Broadway, there's Legacy,um, there's Colleen Atwood.
It just feels like there's a lotof ingredients that are helping

(01:37:53):
her get into this final five.
And so I'm gonna say JenniferLopez for Kiss of the Spider
Woman.

SPEAKER_00 (01:37:58):
I mean, uh I think all that makes a lot of sense to
me.
Um, I do think that you have twoveterans, and so that's the one
thing to sort of look at is dowe really need to?
What would you say?
What would you say?
I I wonder because like I thinkEmily Blunt should be there for
the real person.
I think who the hell is gonnawin this anyway?
But at the same time, if you doput Amy Madigan, do you need

(01:38:19):
Emily Blunt?
I mean, we have gone allfictional 2022, just pure
fiction.
That's true.
Um, and so I would probably saythat if if there is a it's
really it's a paradox, but Ithink Emily Blunt would be the
favorite to win, and she's alsothe person who I think is
easiest to give out because youdon't necessarily need that
veteran spot.

(01:38:39):
Um, and so the paradox that'sthe paradox.
But uh if you take out EmilyBlunt, then I think it's a
perfect situation to nominate anew person.
That said, the people who cometo mind for me are Woon Me.
And can you really have Wound Meand Amy?
I I don't know.
I don't think so.
And then what about Regina Hall?
Because I agree with you.
I think Tiana Taylor is gonnaget the lion's share of critic

(01:39:02):
awards, you know, New York film,critic circle and things like
that.
But when it comes time for thesag, I can't imagine you know,
and the actors union being moreexcited to nominate Regina Hall
finally.
Again, she just has that manywonderful years in the industry,
and again, to me, it's just sortof like right time, right place,
right?
Where like um she she could havethe edge over Tayana Taylor, who

(01:39:24):
does not have the bestfilmography and who's just
starting out, right?
So sort of her own, you know,decade, uh two decade plus
career in the industry, youknow, since we're talking about
Shakespeare and Love.
I mean, we're talking about whenshe played Scary Movie, 1998,
yeah, Shakespeare and she'smaking fun of it.
So, you know, she's been in theindustry that long.

(01:39:44):
And so it could it be ReginaHall, but then you have you
know, three Warner Brothersgirls.
Can that really happen with AmyMadigan?
The category is all over theplace, it's really exciting to
watch, but I think that's areally great rundown as to where
things stand, right?
And so let's shift that becausethere's a lot of similar things
going on, maybe in a lesscompetitive category, which is
best supporting actor.

SPEAKER_02 (01:40:04):
You know, best supporting actor, I think, is an
easier category because, in myopinion, we've got four spots
locked and loaded, and there'sreally just one spot that right
now, at this particular moment,I see honestly between two
people.

SPEAKER_01 (01:40:17):
Okay.

SPEAKER_02 (01:40:17):
And that is, I think the locks are Stun Skarsgard,
who I think is by and large thefront runner to win this
category for best supportingactor.
Okay.
I think Sean Penn is absolutelyin for one battle after another.
Okay.
I think Paul Meskell is going tomake uh is very likely to get
nominated for best supportingactor.
I like that it's a categoryshift.
Yes, not many years have passed.

(01:40:38):
Not official yet, but I will saypeople are suspecting category
shifts.

SPEAKER_00 (01:40:41):
Yeah, all of this changes if he goes lead.

SPEAKER_02 (01:40:42):
All of this go changes if he goes lead.
But if he stays supporting, it'ssmart because it's a category
shift that goes in his favor.
Again, it hasn't been many yearssince 2022, but I like that he's
playing Shakespeare.
I think that adds, you know,real guy, a real person to the
category, which again isimportant.
Um, I think they like PaulMescal.

(01:41:03):
I remember like after his afterSun nomination, he was already
getting an award at the AcademyMuseum for his career.
I think that's an actor they payattention to.
I think that's an actor they'reexcited about, and I think
that's an actor that he's in theright vehicle, which he is this
year with Hamnet.
They're gonna be more than happyto nominate him.
Um, so I see him as a definitenominee right now.
And then I see Adam Sandler, whogot very good reviews um for uh

(01:41:26):
uh Jay Kelly.
Uh some people even liked himmore than they liked the movie.
Um, I think that he's in theright vehicle, the kind of film
that voters are going to watchand respond to, not like Uncut
Gems.
It's a category shift.
You know, he was going in lead,now he's going to the supporting
category.
I think with someone like afilmography like Adam Sandler
that's sort of spotty and hassome titles that are

(01:41:48):
questionable for Academy voters,you know, the maybe the snobbier
Academy voters.
I mean, we all love the AdamSandler comedies.
They don't.
Um, I think it's easier to getinto supporting actor.
I think it helps that he'ssurrounded by people like George
Clooney, like Laura Dern, likeNoah Baumbach, like Netflix.
Right.
You know, I think all thosethings are going to help him

(01:42:09):
land his first nomination.
And it's about damn time becauseAdam Sandler is a wonderful
actor with an incredible amountof depth to him.
Anyone who's seen hisfilmography knows that.
You know, if you're only payingattention to the comedies, then
you're you're missing out.

SPEAKER_03 (01:42:23):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (01:42:23):
Um, and so I think that people are ready to welcome
him into his first nomination.
I think he's in as well, and atleast one spot open.

SPEAKER_01 (01:42:30):
Okay.

SPEAKER_02 (01:42:30):
And I really like what we were talking about how
Benicio del Toro just sh- Ifreaking love Benicio in this
fucking movie.
I think he's my favoriteperformance in the movie.
Um, and again, it's just solived in and so effortless.
And again, it's very poignant inthe few moments he has, they're
very poignant and timely.
Um, and so I think that hecould, as you were saying

(01:42:52):
earlier, I think he could be adefinite nominee in this
category.
But if it weren't him, I wouldreally look to someone like
Jacob Alordy and Frankenstein.
Because I think Frankenstein isshaping up to be a serious
contender for Netflix,considering the tech nominations
that it might end up getting.

SPEAKER_00 (01:43:11):
Fresh off that TIFF win, too.

SPEAKER_02 (01:43:12):
That TIFF runner-up, which surprised a lot of people
after had kind of a weirdcritical reception at Venice and
Tallyred and Tally Red as well,ended up being number two at
Toronto, people's choice.
That's no small thing.
I think a lot of people areexcited about it.
I think a lot of people seeFrankenstein, Guillaume Lontoro,
perfect marriage.
I think they'd be more thanhappy to spotlight that perfect
marriage.

(01:43:33):
Um, and so I think uh, you know,Jacob Alordi got a shitload of
mentions for his turn inFrankenstein.
I think a lot of people lovedhis performance.
A lot of people loved a lot ofpeople loved what he was doing
with the character.
Um, and he was consistentlymentioned as a highlight.
And so if we're talking aboutFrankenstein as a major, you

(01:43:56):
know, best picture player forNetflix, which I think some
people are sleeping on, and it'sa film that might do well in
these uh in an array of techcategories like cinematography
and production design and classdesign and original score, you
know, we're talking about a abigger tally for a film like
Frankenstein.
And if you add to that, that oneof the highlights is Jacob
Alordi's performance, and it'sin and of itself is

(01:44:18):
transformative, you know,because it's not like you know,
the very hot guy from Euphoria,you know, it's it's a different
Jacob Alordi that you're seeing.
Right.
I think he stands to impress alot of people with his
performance in Frankenstein.
And if the film ends up being abest picture player with these
tech nominations, I think he caneasily slip in as the acting
nomination for the film.

SPEAKER_00 (01:44:37):
I mean, also you have a little bit of that
element, right?
Of can they really nominate thecreature from Frankenstein?
That's another sort of we weretalking about it with Amy
Madigan, right?

SPEAKER_02 (01:44:45):
Well, I mean, but I also think Frankenstein having
the sort of historical, youknow, significance significance
that it has is not the samething as Amy Madigan and
weapons.
I I I absolutely agree thatcould be the case.

SPEAKER_00 (01:44:56):
Um, what about some other sort of fringe or
periphery contenders that youshouldn't sort of dismiss?
I know you're a big fan ofBilly.
Oh, yes.

SPEAKER_02 (01:45:05):
You know, I've heard up from I haven't seen the film,
but I've heard from a lot ofpeople that Billy Crutup has a
standout couple of moments in J.
Kelly, from what I've heard, thekind of standout moments that
are going to resonate withactors, and again, actors vote
for actors.
Yeah.
And so if you're having a momentin a film that actors are
watching because it's you knowsurrounded with actors that

(01:45:25):
actors like, and you have acouple of you know uh
scene-stealing moments, thatmight be enough to to to get
into into uh an open slot forsupporting actors.
So I definitely like Billy Crowdup.
What do you think?

SPEAKER_00 (01:45:36):
I mean, I think that's an interesting point
because the big question is canhe really double up with Adam?
And I you know, I wonder ifBilly is possibly more respected
as an actor, unfortunately,because of his filmography.
Uh remember, Billy wasn't almostfamous in the year 2000, and so
maybe that's a factor, but canBenissio double up?
I'm sorry, can one battle canthe one battle guys double up

(01:45:56):
with the J.
Kelly guys?
That's maybe something to talkabout.
But then the other two WarnerBrothers guys are there too,
right?
Because Delroy Lindo has hisfans and Miles, right?

SPEAKER_02 (01:46:04):
Delroy Lindo was uh snubbed.
Uh many people believe he wassnubbed for uh his performance
in the five bloods.

SPEAKER_00 (01:46:11):
Yeah, I mean he has a veteran career, right?

SPEAKER_02 (01:46:13):
He has a veteran career, he's never been
nominated.
Um, so I think he's always goingto be a dark horse.
He was in the center houserules, right?
Right, exactly.
I mean, he's been around for avery long time and never had uh
a moment to get a nomination.
The problem with Darolindo, Ithink, is that unlike the five
bloods, you know, where he'sgiven this huge monologue that
he that he delivers, you know,in the five in Sinners, you

(01:46:37):
know, he's kind of basically thecomic relief of the film, and he
sort of takes a backseat to alot of the other performers, you
know, certainly Wound Me,certainly the double performance
from uh Michael B.
Jordan, and even someone likeMiles Canton.
You know, I feel like he reallytakes a backseat to all those
other actors.
So I think a little bit he kindof gets lost in the in the fray

(01:46:58):
a bit.

SPEAKER_00 (01:46:58):
Yeah, that's the disadvantage he has.
I mean, but then I mean, I thinkMiles is gonna have his fans
too.
Like, I I kind of like put themtogether, like Chase is a huge
breakout this year, Tony 2 is ahuge breakout this year.
Miles is also another hugebreakout this year, and he's
he's gonna have his fans.

SPEAKER_02 (01:47:14):
I think they all got mentioned at the varieties, you
know, 25 and the actors or youknow, actors to watch for 2025.
It makes a lot of sense.

SPEAKER_00 (01:47:23):
It makes a lot of sense, and I do think that you
know, Miles benefits from havingwhat I would call, you know, the
the meatier part compared toDelroy Lindo, right?
Right, and so that that couldwork in his favor.
And then I also think, like, interms of veteranship, Diego Luna
is another actor who he has therole, and this is a role that I
think I think got infamouslysnubbed in 1985 when they didn't

(01:47:44):
nominate Raul Julia for it,right?
Um, and this time he's insupporting actor, but he has
again he has the career, andhe's I would argue at like the
sort of this moment where he'shad a little bit of a
resurrection, right?
He's having a big moment herewith Andor.
Exactly.
He was snubbed by the Emmys.
I remember he hosted Jimmyearlier, and it was a fucking
great show.

SPEAKER_01 (01:48:03):
Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 (01:48:04):
Um, so I do think that you have to watch out for
Diego, and he has a reallywonderful part.
Again, it's a it's a movie thatyou know people are split
between who their favorites are.
Some have some love Jennifer,some love Tona, some love Diego
Luna.
So I definitely think you needto keep an eye out for him.

SPEAKER_02 (01:48:18):
Um I know that there's you know Jeremy Strong,
who's also kind of supportinghis lead in uh Jeremy Allen
White.
Right.
Um, I'm still uh in theSpringsteen Delivery from
Nowhere film.
I'm still sort of split of wherethat film's gonna end up.
You know, based on the receptionI've heard, I can easily see it
getting into lead actor, I caneasily see it getting into

(01:48:40):
nothing.

SPEAKER_00 (01:48:40):
But can you imagine if they nominate four performers
from the year before in theexact same category?
I think that's unheard of.
That's crazy.
That's unheard of.
Because it would be JeremyStrong, potentially, Timothy
Chalamet, potentially, ArianaGrande, potentially, and Cynthia
Revo.
And I feel like if that's thecase, people are gonna get
upset.
Yeah, because you left somepeople on the chopping block who

(01:49:00):
deserve some seriousconsideration.
Right.
And you know, you're almostgiving us what is that, like
one-fifth of the category.
One fifth of all the actingnominees came from last year.
Right.
And I don't think that's gonnasit well.
So I think that's somethingthat's really going.
I mean, if he had been snub forThe Apprentice, I would say that
he's definitely gonna be 100%.

SPEAKER_02 (01:49:16):
I agree, 100%.
And so I think I think that thesupporting actor category is not
as tough as you know, supportingactors and actor.

SPEAKER_01 (01:49:24):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (01:49:24):
Um, I think again, those four spots are pretty
firm.
It's just that one spot.
And for me, can someone likeJacob Elordi surprise and get
nominated with Frankenstein?
Or can Benicio de Toro sort ofsneak in with a really great
part from one battle and occupythat fifth slot?

SPEAKER_00 (01:49:43):
You know what I don't necessarily love, and to
me, like I have to watch outbecause something sort of is
sort of suspect to me becausePaul Meskell got in, you know,
for After Sun, and he didn'tnecessarily have the globe or
the sag to back up thatnomination.
Sort of like Ryan Gosling.
Remember when he got in for halfNelson?

SPEAKER_01 (01:50:00):
Right.

SPEAKER_00 (01:50:01):
And then he had everything he needed for Lars
and the Real Girl the year rightafter.
Talk about consecutivenomination in the same category,
right?
You know, like Cynthia Reeve andAriana Grande, um he missed for
Lars and the Real Girl.
Right.
Right?
You didn't need to nominate him.
Right.
Um, and so there's somethingabout Paul Meskell that you know
makes me a little bit wary interms of like, can this really
happen?
But when you say that there'sgonna be potentially a category

(01:50:22):
with Paul Meskell and JacobAlorty, then I get very
suspicious.
Yeah, that's true.
That's right.
You know, I would wonder if it'scues a little young.
I wonder.
Yeah, I agree.
It's something uh it's somethinguh take into account.
Right.
And so right now, we what wouldyou say?
I think right now, um, forsupporting actor, I like the
four that you're verycomfortable with.
So that's Stelen Scarsgaard forsentimental value, that's Sean

(01:50:45):
Penn for one battle afteranother, Paul Mesko for Hamnet,
which is a four front runner forBest Picture.
Then you have Adam Sandlerfinally getting in for Jay
Kelly, and I think I I reallylike the double nomination here
for Benisha Lotoro and himgetting in for one battle.
I just I think he's such arespected actor, and it's such a
memorable turn in the film andsuch a memorable part of the

(01:51:08):
film that it's hard for me toimagine that voters are gonna be
able to shake it off.
I think it also helps that hehad a great year, right?
You know, um, so I think that'swhere the five stand right now.
But I definitely think thateveryone you mentioned is going
to make a case for themselves.
So it's something to look outfor as we you know head into
October and November and thefilms officially start
premiering to the general moviegoing public.

SPEAKER_02 (01:51:29):
Right.
Which is another phase in and ofitself.

SPEAKER_00 (01:51:31):
Exactly.
Um, so I think that about coverseverything for today.

SPEAKER_02 (01:51:35):
Um make sure to go to our website where you can see
our full predictions, not justfor the ones we've discussed
over the last couple ofepisodes.
Right.
But you can see screenplay, youcan see the tech categories.
We'll we'll have uminternational film and animated
film up shortly.
Yeah.
Um, and so there's you can lookat all of our thoughts and all
the contenders that we're seeingin the in the in the landscape.

SPEAKER_00 (01:51:54):
Right.
And so that'sframesandflickr.com.
Um, remember to follow us onTwitter at Academy Anon, and we
look forward to speaking nextweek.
We're gonna get releases for thesmashing machine, more numbers
for one battle after another.
We're gonna hear more word fromNew York Film Festival.
Maybe we'll go into that cat inuh specifically into that
festival, see what some otherpeople are saying from there.

(01:52:14):
Um, and I think that covers usfor today.
Right?
Um, so uh thank you forlistening.
I'm Joseph.
And I'm Jules.
And we're signing off till nexttime.
It's been a pleasure.

SPEAKER_02 (01:52:25):
The music on this episode, entitled The Cool Cats,
was graciously provided by KevinMcLeod and IncompTech.com.
Licensed under Creative Commonsby attribution 3.0.
H T P colon forward slashforward slash creative

(01:52:45):
commons.org forward slashlicenses forward slash i forward
slash three point zerodisclaimer the academy of
anonymous podcast is in no wayaffiliated or endorsed by the
academy of motion picture artand science.

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