Oscar Season 2025-2026: Our Oscar take on new screenings AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH and THE VOICE OF HIND RAJAB; Predicting the winners of the Critics Choice Awards and the National Society of Film Critics

Episode Transcript
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SPEAKER_02 (00:14):
Hey everyone, and welcome to a new episode of the
Academy Anonymous Podcast.
As always, I'm your co-hostJoseph.

SPEAKER_01 (00:21):
And I'm Jules, and we're glad to have you here.
Uh, just a quick uh fewannouncements.
Uh, first, as always, visit uson our Twitter, which is at
Academy Anon, and our website,www.framesandflicker.com.
Uh, both of those should be onthe cover art for the podcast.
Um, we've actually updated, madehuge updates for our

(00:43):
predictions, especiallyfollowing the announcement of
the short lists, which issomething that we'll talk about
in this episode.
Um, and also we've made a reallycool thing where you'll see our
predictions, but you'll also seethe precursors that have come
out for each of the contendersand those predictions and those
charts.
It looks really cool, it looksreally neat.
Make sure to check it out.
And uh yeah, let's get startedin today's episode.

SPEAKER_02 (01:04):
It's also like kind of fascinating to look at
because you can sort of see likewho the favorite is based on
those precursor mentions, butyou can also kind of see, you
know, the few categories ornominations that were kind of
going against the grain.
So again, it's really cool.
Check out our um predictions.
We re-hauled it to include allthe precursor um mentions up to
date, and we're trying to keepthat up to date as as much as
possible.

SPEAKER_01 (01:24):
Yeah, and I also should say that when you look at
the predictions, um, ourpredictions are the top five of
the films that we're or orcontenders that we think will
get nominated, not necessarilythe contenders that have the
most precursors.

SPEAKER_00 (01:37):
Exactly, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 (01:38):
You know, so the order that you see and the
contenders you see in the topfive are the ones we're
predicting, whether or not theyhave a lot of precursors, that's
besides the point.

SPEAKER_02 (01:46):
Yeah, exactly.
You know, and and I think we'llname drop this later, but
according to precursors, JudyDunn should not have been
nominated for Belfast.
Right.
And so just because you have aprecursor doesn't mean you're
guaranteed anything.
Right.

SPEAKER_01 (01:58):
And Mary Angela Baptiste last church who were
predicting was going to doreally well and get an eye for
best actress for a very, verydeserving uh performance in Mike
Lee's Hard Truths, and thatdidn't happen.
So precursors are important to apoint, but I also think, and
maybe we'll talk about this asthe episode goes on.
You know, the precursors fromcritics' groups is not

(02:18):
necessarily what the industrythinks.
You know, and I think that uhcome January when we start
seeing uh guilds give theirmentions, we'll have a better
idea of what the industry as awhole thinks, and what the
industry as a whole thinks isvery different from what critics
think.

SPEAKER_02 (02:34):
Yeah, just ask like the brilliant Mike Lee.
All you have to do is ask thebrilliant Mike Lee if if
critics, you know, what criticsbelieve matter that much.
Right.

SPEAKER_01 (02:40):
And even then you might get you might do well very
well in the guilds and you mightpop up several times and you
still might get snubbed becauseit's not a film that is
resonating with voters.
Ask Babylon.
So uh that's always veryinteresting and very important
to keep in mind with this wholelike precursor talk.
You know, you'll you'll seesomeone doing really well at

(03:01):
their precursors, and thenpeople automatically jump and
think, oh, that's it, they'redefinitely gonna get nominated.
They're doing so well.
Doesn't mean they're a shoe, andI can think of at least a
handful of people among them,Rose Byrne, who is cleaning up
the best actress precursors, atleast some of the very big uh uh
prestigious uh critics groupprecursors.

(03:21):
Um, that nomination is not safe.
Not ever.
And we'll never be safe.
Right.
And we'll know a little bit moreif she gets into the sag, how
that does, but that's not a safenomination, and that's the same,
that's the same story forseveral contenders.

SPEAKER_02 (03:35):
Yeah.
Um it's also fun to look at.
So stop by our website,framesandflicker.com, and check
out our updated Oscarpredictions.
Before we start the show, Ithink the most appropriate thing
to do is to take a minute andacknowledge the tragedy that
happened uh a little bit agowith the loss of Rob Reiner and
uh Michelle Reiner.
Um it's been a heartbreakingyear for losses of artists in

(03:59):
this industry, and I couldn'tthink of a more tragic note to
end the year on.
It's immensely sorrowful.
Yeah, and our uh well-wishes andour thoughts are with all of Rob
Reiner's friends, colleagues,family, loved ones, loved ones.
We can only speak to the RobReiner that we knew through his

(04:22):
work, and his work has meant somuch to so many individuals,
including ourselves.
He has made so many amazingfilms.
He's put himself in all hisfilms.
He was a brilliant actor, he wasa brilliant filmmaker.
He he got some trulyextraordinary performances from
Kathy Bates and Jack Nicholson,you know, um Meg Ryan and Billy

(04:47):
Crystal.
He was, I think, someone whoreally understood human beings,
modern human beings, I dare Isay modern Americans, and I
think he had a lot of sympathyfor them.
And I think he was um a titan ofthe industry.
I think he was an incredibleartist.

(05:09):
It's such a sorrowful news.
And you know, all we can do issort of find a way forward
because that's that's really theonly option.
Right.
Um but our our condolences toall his all all his loved ones
and anyone who loved him andanyone who loved his work, of
which we we share in that.

SPEAKER_01 (05:30):
Um uh absolutely our c our our sincerest condolences,
an iconic filmmaker, iconicfilms that will live on forever,
such a tragedy, such a tragic,as you said, very well said,
such a tragic note to end on.
Uh a year, a year that has seenthe loss of so many heroes and
titans of the film industry, ofthe film as an art form.

(05:52):
Um it's very it's devastating.

SPEAKER_02 (05:54):
Yeah, devastating and completely emblematic of the
kind of year it's been in termsof you know, loss in in
individuals who who meant somuch to this industry, who meant
so much to people who love theart form.
Um and then I have to alsomention, um, because we were
deeply affected by this too, therecent passing of uh James
Ranson, who was a brilliantactor.

(06:18):
A brilliant actor.
And if you were well-versed andwell exposed to independent
American cinema, you immediatelyknow his face.
And I I was uh such a bigadmirer of his.
And again, our condolences goout to his loved ones, to his

(06:38):
friends.
Again, we knew him by his work.
Um and it's one of those thingswhere if you're if you have an
appreciation for independentcinema, you know who James
Ranson is.
And I think a lot of mainstreammoviegoers will be able to
recognize him from his work onit.
But he was brilliant inTangerine.

SPEAKER_01 (06:55):
Absolutely brilliant.

SPEAKER_02 (06:55):
And he was a scene stealer in uh The Black Phone,
um Sinister.

SPEAKER_01 (07:01):
Um immensely talented actor.
Um The Wire.
He provided a spark to all thefilms that he was a part of.
You know, uh he provided thisenergy, at times, you know, very
comedic relief, but also, youknow, a lot of uh uh deep
feeling.
And so, you know, his hispassing was uh was uh hit us

(07:24):
hard.
Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 (07:25):
Yeah, and I I also think that he brought it again,
I think he was an actor who wasable to coax a tremendous amount
of sympathy um from audiencesinto sometimes you know
characters that were not easy tolove.
Um you could see in everyperformance that he had that he
he did it with the utmostpassion.
Yeah and in every movie that hewas in, that he was happy to be

(07:48):
there and that he was happy tobe participating and happy to be
bringing life to something.
Um and so we'll miss him deeply.
Yeah.
Um I think especially because II feel like he had such a young
career and um because he was oneof those actors where again, if
if you know him through hiswork, every time he pops up on

(08:09):
the screen, you smile becauseyou know what he's done in other
movies and you're just happy tosee him on the screen.
And so that's going to beanother immense loss.
Yeah.
Um, and so our our hearts andour thoughts go out to all those
individuals, and we share withall the film goers and film
lovers who this community has uhtaken a lot of losses this year.

(08:32):
Yeah.
And um, you know, hold yourloved ones close and don't take
for granted a moment with yourloved ones, and then don't take
for granted a moment that youget to have with individuals who
who love this art andindividuals who give themselves
to this art form and to thispastime.

SPEAKER_01 (08:50):
Yeah, I always say that, you know, to myself in my
heart when these kind oftragedies happen, you know, how
fortunate I feel to havewitnessed their talent and their
beauty on screen in the mediumin this art form that we love so
much.
You know, that always uh reallysticks with me and and and is

(09:10):
something I I hold on to whenthe sort of these sorts of
things happen.

SPEAKER_02 (09:13):
I agree.

SPEAKER_01 (09:14):
I agree.

SPEAKER_02 (09:15):
All right.
Um, well, let's move on to umour first topic.
So where should we start offtoday?

SPEAKER_01 (09:21):
Well, let's see.
Um there's two films that wewant to talk about that we
screened recently.
Uh we'll start there.
First, we'll start with a filmthat most people have been
screening um this December andthat we expect more people to be
watching, and that's James JamesCameron's third installment of
the Avatar franchise.
Um you and I were, I remembervery clearly when the first

(09:45):
Avatar came out, and you know,everyone made it a big deal.
I think he gave like a specialpreview of like 10 minutes or
something like that.
Yeah.
Um, like in the summer.
It was supposed to be this hugebehemoth.
It ended up being that when itcame out in December.
I think it beat Titanic for themost uh the most watched film.

SPEAKER_02 (10:06):
Yeah, he beat himself, yeah.
And that was like a bigheadline.
And also like he ushered in thismoment, right, where we thought
there's going to be the arrivalof this technology that is gonna
completely change the industryas we know it.
And for a for a sustained amountof time, it seemed like that was
a possibility.
I think that that hasn't, youknow, held on um over time.

(10:29):
I don't think that that's thecase anymore, but there was
certainly a moment where it'syou know, James Cameron changes
the industry with Avatar in2009.

SPEAKER_01 (10:37):
Yeah, and I remember that race that became the James
Cameron versus CatherineBrigelow race.
Yeah.
Former partners turnedcompetitors, collaborators as
well.
Collaborators, exactly.
Made some amazing moviestogether.
Yeah, and I I think that wasn'tit that year in the Golden
Globes when Amy Polar and TinaFaye made this joke, something

(10:57):
about I think because they werenot in the same category.
And the only reason I'm bringingit up is because A, we're
talking about James Cameron andAvatar, but also there was a
headline that recently came outthat they asked him about it,
and he was still really uh, youknow, he felt very icy about
that comment still.
He he he didn't appreciate it.
But anyway, that was that's whatwas going on in 2009.

SPEAKER_02 (11:18):
I think I remember that comment, and it was kind of
funny.
I guess it was funny.
It was it's funnier if you'renot James Cameron.

SPEAKER_01 (11:24):
And uh and then several years pass, and finally
Avatar 2 comes out in 2022, andit's so many years, yeah.
Yeah, and it underperforms withuh certainly critics.
Makes a good amount of moneythough.
Yeah, makes a good amount ofmoney.
It still gets an eye for bestpicture, but as we've talked in
the in the past about thesesequels that get nominated for

(11:47):
best pictures consecutively, oryou know, one after the other,
installment after installment,you should see a depreciation
with regard to nominations.
So Avatar went from being ninenominations to having four
nominations with Way of Water,you know, just like we've
mentioned in the past, Dune wentfrom ten to five.
Um, that should be somethingsimilar with Wicked this year.

(12:08):
There's always a depreciation.
Um, and so that only ended upgetting four nominations, but it
did get the best picturenomination, and people are
wondering is it gonna happenthis third time?

SPEAKER_02 (12:17):
Fire and ash.

SPEAKER_01 (12:18):
You know, I think there's some pro pros and cons
to his candidacy or to Avatar'scandidacy this time, and it's
that, you know, I really feellike there's eight solid spots
in the best picture lineup thatare spoken for.
Yeah, I I feel pretty stronglyabout those eight spots, just to
reiterate, that should be um onebattle after another, and
Sinners and Hamnet, and it wasjust an accident and sentimental

(12:41):
value, and Marty Supreme andFrankenstein and Train Dreams.
That kind of leaves two spotswhere everyone sort of like
doesn't know what's gonnahappen.
Um, and Avatar could easily takeone of those two spots, but it
would certainly be getting in inthat last, you know, one or two
spots.
Um, the critic's reception isstill not what it was in 2009

(13:01):
for the first avatar.
It's even lower than the secondavatar.
Um, and so you know, it's alittle bit uh dicey.
You know, are they going to itwill the Academy want to embrace
him for this third film?
When again, there should be adepreciation.
Um uh and you know, the film isstill not doing as well as it,
you know, in its glory days withcritics.

SPEAKER_02 (13:23):
Well, I mean, going into it, I I to to speak a
little bit on to something youjust said, which is that Fire
and Ash does not perform as wellcritically as Way of Water,
right?
And going into it after previewscreenings to press and
industry, um, you know, thereare certainly some people, some
pundits at some majorpublications who were starting
to sort of say it's more of thesame.

(13:44):
And I I feel like I heard thatquote a bunch of times, more of
the same, which to me alwayssounded kind of fishy because if
it's more of the same and way ofthe water is more of the same,
and you gave that a positivereview, kind of weird to all the
saints.
Now it's more of the same, andnow it's a rotten review.
And it's kind of awkward to me.
Um, but uh undoubtedly there's alittle bit of uh uh the glow is
gone, right?

(14:04):
Um, even if it's not somethingsuper um uh pronounced, right?
It's you know, for example, forMetacritic, I believe Way of
Water goes from like 60, what,65, 67, 67, and I think right
now it's holding on to like 61,62.
So it's not major, but I thinkit is significant.
Now, I think two things.
Number one, and this issomething interesting to talk
about before we actually talkabout our opinion because we did

(14:26):
get a chance to screen it.
Number one, it makes a goodamount of money again, right?
Fire and ash, number one thisweekend at the box office, makes
I think uh almost like 90million.
Um, but that being said, it doesnot make what Way of Water made
in 2022.
Way of water, I think, you know,crossed 100 in exactly 100

(14:46):
million on its opening weekend.
Now the weight was also a lotbigger, right?
Yeah, um, the weight for Way ofWater um was upwards of 10
years, and then the weightwasn't as big between number two
and number three, and that maybe a factor here.
Um, at the same time, I wouldargue, having seen Way of Water,
that there's an argument to bemade that Way of Water is

(15:07):
disappointing enough where youdon't want to see the third one.
I was not a fan of it.
I know that you didn't like iteither, and we'll speak about it
when we talk about Fire and Ash.
The other thing I'll say thoughis I do wonder if Academy
members are gonna look at theAvatar movies differently
because he has invested so muchof his time in developing them,
and so it kind of feels like notnecessarily a um a sequel to

(15:31):
make more money, but instead along, gestating passion project.
Um and it's it almost feels likemaybe they'll be able to take it
more seriously um because hehasn't done anything in between
and he's only worked on it forthat long.
So I guess what I'm trying tosay is diminishing returns in

(15:53):
all, one of the major factorsthat benefits Way of Water is
that he spent all that timeworking on it.
That year when Way of Water getsnominated, if you remember
correctly, Ryan Kugler was upfor Wakanda Forever, right?
And you got diminishing returnsagain.
It missed the best picture infavor of Way of Water, right?
And they're both kind of likeDisney movies coming from the
Disney camp.

(16:13):
Um, and um Ryan Kugler um sortof is this year, finally,
funnily enough, he's uh in abetter position to get in with
an original piece ofentertainment.
But for you know, you never knowif what sort of ended up
breaking for Way of Water is thefact that a voter went and said,
Okay, well, I have maybe onemore spot left.

(16:34):
It'd be good to put in anotherHollywood blockbuster, a
Hollywood movie that made abunch of money.
Um, it helps theaters, it helpsthe box office, it helps the
industry.
Um, if that's the case and Ihave to choose between Wakanda
Forever and Way of Water, Iwould rather nominate Way of
Water because I've waited 10plus years to do it versus
Wakanda Forever was just here in2018 for the first Black Panther

(16:55):
movie.
And so what I'm saying is that Idon't I don't think Avatar is
your normal sequel.
I think Avatar has this gravitasof coming from this maestro.
It's not uh it's original IP,it's his original idea, it's not
based on anything else, it's notbased on Wizard of Oz, it's not
based on um uh uh a uh respecteduh text or respected novel like

(17:15):
Dunes.
It's not based on um a Marvelsuperhero.
Um there's this, I think, aurato it that sure it's lost some
of its glow, but the questionis, is it completely flat now?
Is it completely dull?
Um Right.

SPEAKER_01 (17:30):
And I but I also think that I I mean to your
point, James Cameron is not, forexample, John M.
Chu.
You know, uh as you were saying,you know, I think he carries
this clout for his uh, you know,uh the the thumbs he's made in
the industry, the the impacthe's made in the industry.
And I think that went a long wayto having Avatar Way of Water
get nominated for Best Picture,as you're insinuating.

(17:53):
Um, you know, the question iscan that happen for this third
installment?
Are they kind of you know donewith it for right now, ready to
give it, you know, you know, nota not a best picture nomination?
Also, does the film itself haveenough, as you were saying,
gravitas to land or to be amongthe very select group of films

(18:13):
that get that are you knowsequential that have uh several
iterations and all of them getnominated for best picture, like
The Godfather.
Is Avatar at that level?
I'm not so sure.
Right, you know, but I alsothink that there's something
attached to these Avatar filmsthat I also think you were
insinuating, and it's this, youknow, they're in a way
synonymous with this idea of umadvancing the technology in the

(18:34):
film industry um uh to such agreat extent that you know I
think that that carries with itsome power and some compelling
uh persuasive um argument forincluding it in these big
awards.

SPEAKER_02 (18:47):
Yeah, no, I I agree.
And so I guess what's left totalk about is what was your
impression after seeing thefilm?

SPEAKER_01 (18:53):
Well, you know, I wasn't looking forward to seeing
the film personally.
Um, I'm not a big Avatar fan.
I certainly did not like AvatarWay of Water.
Um I thought there were a lot offlaws with that.
I thought it was one of theweakest films I saw that year,
um, which is quite a statementto say.
Um, but I will say I was kind ofsurprised with this new
iteration.
You know, it's not I don'tconsider the Avatar films high

(19:16):
art.
Uh, you know, that's anotherthing that's you know, James
Cameron has his sort of youknow, quote unquote groupies,
you know, that are very, youknow, in love with his craft and
again his place in the in the inthe in in the market, in the
film industry.
You know, Gambit O'Toro lovesAvatar and has, I think, said in
the past that the Avatar filmsare masterpiece and together

(19:38):
separate, they're masterpieces.
I couldn't disagree more.
Um, but I will say that I, youknow, I was I was pleasantly
surprised in that I thought itwas enjoyable enough as a
popcorn confection.
Um and uh, you know, I had somefun.
I had a much fun time, much morefun time watching this one than

(19:59):
the the C.
Sequel.
Um uh I maybe I just don'tremember Way of Water.
I didn't necessarily feel thatit was treading the same water.
Again, I you know, don't take myword for it.
I don't remember Way of Waterthat much.
Um, but I enjoyed the villain inthis one.
Una Chaplin does a fantasticjob.
Um, she was the highlight ofthis for sure.

(20:19):
I loved seeing uh what they didwith that character, and I think
she brought a lot of oomph tothe project.
Yeah.
Um, and you know, I was I was Iwas I was uh you know it was
pleasant enough to go, you know,and have those three hours.
It didn't feel like a four-hourfilm, like the way that the way
of water felt for me personally.
Um again, you know, I think theweakest part of the Avatar films

(20:40):
are always the script, andthat's still present here.
You know, I don't think JamesCameron and his Auvoir is known
for having you know the best uhwriting.
Right.
That's still very true here.
But you know, I was a littlesurprised by it actually.

SPEAKER_02 (20:53):
And I think we have a lot of similar feelings on it,
actually.
I did not enjoy Way of Water atall, but I kind of felt that
again, there was a lot more uminvolving aspects to this film.
So I encourage anyone to go andwatch it over, you know, the hot
and break, and I'm sure mostpeople will, it'll continue to
make money.
Um, but I will say if you didn'tlike Way of Water, there's you
know, as people say, it's moreof the same.

(21:14):
If you didn't like Way of Water,there's a chance you like this
movie a little bit better.
Um, it still feels infinitelylong.
Um, and and the movie certainlyfeels like every time that the
movie feels a little bit flat,there's just enough of a little
bit of an injection of somethinginteresting to keep you
involved.
And so I kind of told you likethis movie does not know the
word quit for better or worse.
Um, at the same time, I agreeUna Chaplin was a total scene

(21:38):
stealer.
Um, and they keep doing greatstuff.
The visual effects are great,the sound is good.
Um, you know, I think it wassort of tricky because as I was
watching the film, when I wasdone watching it, I sort of
debated, okay, well, the law ofdiminishing returns, but I don't
know where to take thenomination out of because
watching the film, it's as goodto earn those same four

(22:01):
nominations, which is the lastnominations for Voyage of Water
were Visual Effects, Sound,Production Design, and Best
Picture.
And by the way, James Camerondid not go to the ceremony.
Um now I think you can make anargument after seeing it that it
is as strong a contender invisual effects and it should win
that category.

SPEAKER_01 (22:20):
Yeah, very easy.

SPEAKER_02 (22:22):
Yeah, especially after that short list.
Um, sound is still a very strongcontender.
Production design, I thought, isstill a very strong contender.
And best picture.
Again, it does the things thatWay of Water does, unless,
again, they're going to say it'sless impressive because you
know, less than 10 years passedbetween part two and part three,
as opposed to part one and parttwo.

(22:43):
Right.
Um, I will say that I think thatmaybe what something that hurt
us for Way of Water is that westill had maybe fond memories of
Avatar in 09, which seemed likeforever ago.
And so it just felt like acompletely different direction
from what that first one was.
Um, versus here we kind of hadthat recent disappointment of
what Way of Water was.
And I think Fire Nash sort ofhad more redeeming qualities

(23:05):
about it.

SPEAKER_01 (23:06):
I agree, but I also feel like you know, you had
mentioned this in a previousepisode that for the for you
know that last spot or two, theymight consider including a
money-making, you know, umfranchise film, and maybe
they'll have to choose betweenWicked and Avatar.
That seems to be like the placesthe the two they'd have to
choose between.

(23:26):
And I always told you, well, youknow, there's the third option,
and it's not nominate either ofthem and nominate a film that
they actually like, even if thatmeans snubbing a you know
franchise that made a lot ofmoney.
You know, after seeing thisfilm, I certainly agree with
you.
I think it's good enough it toget the same nominations, but I
would go further and I would saythat if we have to compare

(23:48):
Avatar to Wicked, I just thinkthat Avatar is clearly the
better film.
I think it's clearly the thestronger of the two.
And again, I'm gonna reiterateit's not, you know, a flawless
film by any means.
But I think that a uh objectiveuh viewer who sees both films, I
think will come away thinkingthat the better of the two is

(24:09):
Avatar.
So if they're gonna choosebetween the two, I think that
they would choose Avatar.
And let's say they don't chooseAvatar, then it's the third
option I had brought up severalepisodes ago, which is that
they're not gonna nominateeither of them.
And they're gonna go with afilm, maybe it's a foreign film,
maybe it's a lesser uh anindependent film.

SPEAKER_02 (24:27):
We talked about maybe these outlier spectacle
movies, blockbuster movies, F1,and weapons, maybe they can get
some traffic.
Possibly, possibly.
I think something that youmentioned was easy, I mean
interesting, which is do theypunish Avatar and say, I'm not
nominating three chapters of thesame thing?
And they say maybe I'd rathernominate the second wicked than

(24:47):
the third Avatar, because as yousaid, I can't think of too many
quote unquote third iterationsthat score on nomination.
You have Lord of the Rings, butthey're they're based on
individual texts, right?
But you mentioned a great one,which was Godfather, right?
And so do you do that again?
I don't even know if peopleremember nominating the
Godfather Part Three fondly.
Right.
And so I'd have to really thinkabout if how many films

(25:09):
accomplish, you know, thenomination on the third chapter.
It's interesting to think aboutlike, can they really snub most
of the bigger blockbusters thisyear and just you know, sort of
say that the only really bigblockbuster that I'm going to
nominate is Sinners, because itis such a a big achievement in
terms of you know uh what itmeant to critics, what it meant

(25:29):
to audiences, what it means tothe industry, um, it being an
original blockbuster.
Do you really think they'recapable of making that decision?

SPEAKER_01 (25:36):
I I absolutely do.
Um, I think the Academy showstime and time again, if you
really look at the nitty-grittyof it all, you know, the ugly
and the maybe a little lessugly, they tend to do what they
want to do.
And it doesn't really matterwhat's appropriate or what
isn't.
It's what they like or what theydon't like.
They don't care that they'regonna snub this or that if it

(25:57):
means that they did they wantedto snub this or that, and that
they felt more strongly aboutthat or this.
Um, and so I 100% think, and Ithink in a way it would be
fitting for a year like this,where so many films
underperformed at the box officebecause of the economic
situation, you know, the youknow, the sociopolitical uh

(26:18):
landscape of the current day.
It would be fitting to have abest picture list of contenders
that kind of excluded most ofthose because you know there
weren't a lot of successstories.
Right.
You know, you might have had asuccessful, you there aren't a
lot of you know, quote unquotecenters or weapons where you
have the best of the best ofboth worlds, critics and box

(26:40):
office.
You sometimes had the wickets,which was good box office,
mediocre critics, right?
And even Avatar, good boxoffice, mediocre critics.
Right.
So in a way, it's sort offitting to have a list of 10
that completely excludes thething that everyone struggled
with this year, right?

SPEAKER_02 (26:55):
And I think on that point, I will say that as I
said, Avatar Fire and Ash makesclose to 100 mil um for the
first weekend.
I don't know, keep making money,but that close to 100 mil is a
significant drop from the onearound 140 that Way of Water
made.
And so there's there's everyreason to believe that at least
here domestically, it will notreach the same highs as Way of

(27:19):
Water.

SPEAKER_01 (27:20):
Right.
But I also want to add to that,you know, since we're putting
the pitting these two filmstogether, you know, a very
similar statement, sentiment canbe said about Wicked, which had
a terrific opening box office.
Um, I it certainly beat Avatarin that department, uh, did
spectacularly.
However, the week since that, itsort of have been has been
having bigger drops in the boxoffice per week than the first

(27:43):
one had, kind of giving us thisimpression that you know the
excitement was there, buteveryone kind of rushed to see
it, you know, in the first fewopening weekends.
Um, and it's had sort ofdiminishing returns ever since.
And that film will also notreach the highs of the first
week.
And I think that part of that isuh again, similarly, you know,
the social economic landscape ofyou know America today.

(28:06):
I think that has a part to playin that as well.
However, you know, the same canbe said about Wicked is my
point.

SPEAKER_02 (28:12):
Yeah, and I think, you know, to just to add on to
that a little a little bit, umAvatar With uh Fire and Ash
globally has already, I believe,outgrossed Wicked.
Um I'm sorry, not globally, butinternationally has outgrossed
Wicked internationally, which iskind of interesting.
Um and actually F1 hasoutgrossed them both
internationally.

(28:33):
Um and so I guess what I'mtrying to say is that if if you
uh if you agree um that maybethe the playing field is a
little bit more even between youknow poor critical reception, a
third chapter, money sort ofbeing uneven.
Because then at the end of theday, you know, I think wicked
right now is at 320, 320domestically, which is really

(28:56):
impressive.
It's like, you know, I thinkright outside the top five, or
maybe even even in the top five.
But when you see that centersfor the budget that it had made
280 in the US box office, that's10 times more impressive, even
if the number is lower.
You know, in context, thatnumber is way more impressive.
Um, and so I I do wonder ifyou're right there.

(29:17):
And maybe we can just see a yearwhere the only blockbuster
they're gonna nominate is theonly blockbuster, quote unquote,
worth nominating.
Now, we talked about it afterthe screening.
Is the secret weapon here forAvatar, Fire and Ash, the fact
that this would be a postapostamous nomination for
producer John Landau, who passedaway before this film um could

(29:38):
be released.
Um, and well, again, that's uhanother um passing, sad passing
that we had in 2024.
Um, John Landau winner forTitanic, nominator for Avatar at
Way of Water as well.
Um and there's a wonderful sortof um, you know, it's a really
bright um moving moment of anhomage in the film when you go
check it out and you'll see thathomage to John Landau.

(30:01):
Um, you know, is that maybegonna help Avatar get a
nomination and sort of give youknow John Landau another sort of
um Oscar nomination um and sortof thank him for everything that
he's done for the industry, notjust with this movie, but really
throughout his career andthroughout his collaborations
with James Cameron.

SPEAKER_01 (30:20):
That's very possible, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 (30:21):
That's that's what I thought.
I kind of felt in my gut that Iwould rather hold on to Avatar
number 10 because again, it doesmore of the same.
It does it successfully, itlooks like it's gonna win visual
effects, the money is stillgood.

SPEAKER_01 (30:32):
And we've talked about it that typically you see
the winners for thesecategories, they end up being
the best picture nominis.
You know, so if we think thatAvatar has such a great
opportunity, you know, verylikely to win visual effects,
the likelihood of it beingincluded in the best picture 10,
you know, is stronger.
You know, I think some peoplemight issue the cre the critique

(30:55):
that the same can be said forwicked, but I'm not sure the
same can be said for wickedbecause I don't think it's a
slam dunk to win costume.
I don't think it's a slamexactly.
Um, or just with thecompetition, you because you
have Frankenstein and Sinnersthere, which I think will be
competitive.
I don't think it's a slam dunkto win production design either.
I don't think it's a slam dunkto win original song.
So it's not the same.

SPEAKER_02 (31:13):
I really think its most competitive category is
costume design, and I think thatsomething that Avatar has is I
have I have no idea who can evengive it a run for its money in
visual effects.
Right.
You know, that category is Ithink essentially done.

SPEAKER_00 (31:25):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (31:25):
Um, so my guess I to finish off the discussion on
Avatar is are you still peggingdiminishing returns for the
film?
And if so, what are youthinking?
You're thinking three.

SPEAKER_01 (31:34):
I right now I'm thinking three, yes.
Um, right now I agree with you.
I'm a little comfortable hangingon to it at number 10, strictly
at number 10.
Um, and the easiest thing wouldbe that it does have a
depreciation, and instead offour, it gets three, and that's
best picture, maybe visualeffects and sound, and then

(31:57):
misses production design becausethey're you know bored and want
to move on to something else, orit gets three and it misses best
picture.
Um, and in that case, I wouldn'tgo to Wicked, I would go to a
10th film that had some passion.

SPEAKER_00 (32:11):
Right.

SPEAKER_01 (32:11):
And that's usually a film that is more critically
acclaimed and uh is aboutsomething that uh resonates or
registers with them.
Yeah, that those are the twooptions I'm between.

SPEAKER_02 (32:23):
I think both of both of those are very possible
scenarios.
I'm not gonna dismiss thepossibility that it does not go
lower and that it matches thesame for and it gets production
design and picture.
I don't think that's you knowout of the realm of possibility.
And we'll talk about what wasessentially a big sort of bounce
back for Wicked when those whenwe discussed the shortlists, um,
which was a good day for Wicked.
Um, but before that, um, we'regonna discuss another film we

(32:47):
had an opportunity to screen,right?
Which is The Voice ofHeinrichab.

SPEAKER_01 (32:50):
So that is uh The Voice of Hin Rajab is the
official submission of Tunisia.
Um, as you said, I went toVenice, sort of a docudrama.
Um, the director, KautorBenhania, has been nominated
before, I believe in 2000 and2023, she had her documentary
nominated um for daughters.
For daughters, yes.

(33:11):
And if you don't know what thefilm is about, um, it's actually
based on a true story where theRed Crescent, which is an
extension of the Red Cross, um,uh they receive the volunteers
receive an emergency call, andit's a six-year-old girl who's
trapped in a car under fire inGaza.
Uh, this is happening to aPalestinian family um that's

(33:31):
sort of caught in the crosshairswith the Israeli invasion of the
Gaza Strip.
Um, and interestingly enough,you know, the film uses the
actual recording that was madeby this six-year-old girl uh
named Hin Rajab.
Um, and it's probably the mostpiercing aspect of the film.
You know, it really hits youwhen you hear this young little

(33:53):
girl's voice pleading forrescue.
Um, it's really soul-shatteringuh to hear, to witness in a way.
Um, and so the film is sort of areconstruction of that event, of
that moment of receiving thatcall and trying to get the
rescuers out to her and failing.
Um, it's uh incredibly tragicand obviously timely.

(34:16):
I know that when it went toVenice, we've talked about it.
There were some rumors that uhmembers of the jury were split
and wanted some a portion of themembers wanted to give it the
Golden Lion.
You know, uh there were thoserumors uh that maybe Fernanda
Torres was one of them thatwanted to award that film, and

(34:37):
uh Alexander Payne was part ofthe other portion that didn't.

SPEAKER_02 (34:41):
Wanted to give it to his friend, Jim Jarmish, who was
also an amazing filmmaker, to befair.

SPEAKER_01 (34:45):
Um, and you and I called that that film would win.
Uh at least I I think Ipredicted it, and so you know,
we were right about that.
Um, but this film did end upwinning the second prize, uh,
which I think is the grand thegrand prize.
I believe, yeah, at the silverline, I believe.
No, no, the grand jury prize.
Excuse me, yeah.
Um and uh, you know, we'vetalked in the past also how as

(35:06):
of late there should be at leastone Venice title, a film that
wins.
That's major.

SPEAKER_02 (35:12):
I would say that that is a major thing to
consider as you discuss thefilm, which is that not since
2015 have we had no film fromthe film selected amongst the
winners in Venice not end up onthe best picture list.

(35:32):
Usually, at least one of them,for example, 2016, uh Lala Land,
I believe, won the prize forbest actress at a stone, right?
And Lala Land got into BestPicture.
Roma won uh the Golden Line andShape of Water, and so usually
since 2016, you will see a filmthat wins a prize at Venice wind
up in the best picture list.

(35:54):
And because Jim Jarmus does nothave a shot in hell this year, I
mean again, and I he's anamazing filmmaker, and I'm sure
the film is wonderful.
Because of that, you do not havevery many options, and one of
them to consider is certainlyHeen Rajab.
I mean, it's Heen Rajab, thesmashing machine, but that's
what it would have been 10 yearssince we have seen no film that
won something at Venice show upat Best Picture.

SPEAKER_01 (36:16):
Right.
Since Jim Jarmish, as you weresaying, won the uh top prize and
the other films that might haveeven competed for that slot that
you're saying, the Venice slotin Best Picture would have been
the smashing machine, which isyou know somewhere else
completely entirely.
As a winner, you mean right?
And then there's just the voiceof Hinraja because the other
titles that won something wereyou know very foreign titles.

(36:37):
Below the clouds, La Grazia.
Right.
So really those are the onlyones to pick from.
And this would be on paper, itsounds like the best option, you
know, given that plan B isattached, and you have people
like Alfonso Corone and JoaquinPhoenix, and people like Brad
Pitt and uh Jeremy Kleiner and DD Gardner from Plan B.

SPEAKER_02 (36:58):
Um you got producer, a producer from the zone of
interest on there, you got uh anOscar winning producer from
Navalny on there as well.
So the team is really good.

SPEAKER_01 (37:07):
Um, I will say that those are all reasons why, if
you you know have been keepingtrack of our predictions, we
actually had it in our bestpicture 10 for a little bit.

SPEAKER_02 (37:17):
We held on to it for a long time.
Now, that being said, itobviously is not a favorite, at
least among precursors, for, forexample, international film,
where it has not been placingvery often.
Um, it did place, I believe,quite pivotally at the Golden
Globes, which is important,right?
It ended up qualifying on theshortlist, which is also
massive.
Um, but we'll talk about theshortlist in a little bit.

(37:39):
But you know, for example, itdid miss sound, and some of the
brilliance of that film is theway they were able to use the
actual recording um and sort ofhave it be um at a high enough
quality and a high enoughstandard um so that you get um
enveloped into the story, yeah.
Um, but so that it's also, youknow, it feels credible that
you're in that situation, right?

(38:00):
100%, and it did miss that soundshortlist, which we had sort of
pegged, maybe that that would itwould show up there.
Yeah, right.

SPEAKER_01 (38:07):
And there was another foreign film that did
really well, which we'll getinto.
Um, and so you know, it's a verycompelling film, and like I
said, the team behind it is, youknow, very uh reputable.
Yeah.
Um I don't know, how did youfeel in terms of you know, where
you can now that you've seen it,where you see it landing in the
Oscar race?

SPEAKER_02 (38:27):
I honestly feel like it is a film that is strong
enough to make the 10.
And I'm not sure how I like thehow I like the possibility of
breaking that streak of gettinga Venice uh having a Venice
winner not show up on the listat all.

SPEAKER_01 (38:41):
Well, and you know, just to be fair, I will say that
prior to 2015 it does get alittle spotty what we're talking
about in terms of Venice winnersmaking into Best Picture.
Yes.
You know, for example, Iremember the year of um Birdman,
for example, yeah, the yearbefore.
Uh, which was the talk of Venicethat year, didn't win anything
from the jury, which I believewas headed by Alexander Desplau,
if I'm not, if I'm if I'm notmistaken.

(39:02):
I believe you're right.
Um, it didn't win anything uh inthat uh in that ceremony.
Um and uh no winners appeared.
You're right.

SPEAKER_02 (39:11):
So you know it was a bit spotty before 2015, but I
think the 10-year streak ispretty significant.
Um now I'll tell you somethingelse.
Do you even have another Venicemovie getting into this top 10?
Because one thing is no Venicewinner, but even in 2015, you
know, you had Spotlight, whichshowed um out of competition at

(39:32):
Venice, it was the best picturewinner.
And in 2014, Birdman did not winan award at Venice and it won
Best Picture at the Academy.
And so the idea that there isn'tgoing to be a film that has a
little bit of Venice DNA behindit, you know, that is even
tougher to believe.
So I think show up somewhere inBest Picture.
Exactly.
So certainly I think that's agood one.

SPEAKER_01 (39:51):
Well then we open the field a little bit more.
You get films like uh Testamentof Ann Lee, perhaps which could
not have had a worse day at theshort list when we discuss it.

SPEAKER_02 (40:00):
But I mean, what what else is there?
Right.
Where else can we go?
And so like Begonia focusedfeatures.
Begonia is not necessarily inthe most enviable position right
now.
But if are we really going tosay that we're not going to
include a winner and we're noteven going to include anyone
that was in competition or outof competition, that is pretty
extreme.

SPEAKER_01 (40:18):
Another thing that I want to bring people's attention
to is that the film actually wasnominated for best film at the
European Film Awards.
And that's no small thing.
And I'll tell you why.
Because as we've said, and asmany people by now are very well
aware of, there's a lot more ofan international presence in the
Academy.
And I think we saw that thisyear in the uh short lists,

(40:40):
where a lot of films that didwell at the European Film Awards
and in certain categoriesrepeated with the shortlists.
So Surratt did really well atthe European Film Awards,
getting cat getting recognizedin categories like sound design
and it made an inmate sounddesign.
You know, uh if you if you lookat the two side by side, the
European Film Awards and theshortlists, there's some DNA.

(41:01):
There's some there's some DNAbetween them.
And so don't overlook that.
You know, that that is a big getfor the film.
And it shows that there is uhforeign passion behind the film.
And in a year where we'reclamoring for, like we've talked
previously in this episode, aninth or tenth spot between
films that we're not that crazyabout.

(41:21):
Should we include them or not?
A passion vote is really what'sgonna matter.

SPEAKER_02 (41:25):
I mean, I a hundred percent agree with you.
Um, I think you asked me wheredo I see it right now?
I think the Venice winner statis pretty good.
I think the Venice participationstat is also pretty massive.
I think you brought up a greatpoint with the European Film
Awards.
It still scored a best picturenomination there, despite it not
being as obviously as wellrewarded, even in that group, as

(41:47):
for example, Surat orSentimental Value.
Um, the other thing I'll mentionis the top eight films that you
mentioned, right, which you feelmost comfortable with, right?
I believe, you know, uh you'redevoid of some history there,
right?
Everything is more or less, youknow, fictional-ish, right?

(42:08):
And I think that Hin Rajab alsohas the benefit of being, you
know, based on a true story.
And so, you know, a movie itkind of reminds me of again is
sort of like the late breakingfilm from last year, September
5th, right?
Which was also excellent and hadenough quality to be nominated
for editing and for sound, andit just got a screenplay
nomination.
But again, what I see here issort of um an insufficient

(42:30):
campaign.
I think the film is certainlystrong enough to be nominated,
and I think there's too manysort of green flags to sort of
say it's an also ran.
I think it's sort of uh asleeper movie.
Um, but I don't know if there'sagain with all those
international voters, are theyreally not gonna nominate
something from Venice, as yousaid?
Yeah.
So it that's where I'm at withthe film right now.

SPEAKER_01 (42:52):
Yeah, basically, you know, uh, I wouldn't sleep on it
if I were you.
It's certainly a contender, itcertainly will be competitive.
Will it have enough to musterits way into the number 10th
spot?
It's unclear, it's notdefinitive.
Um, but it certainly can happen.
Now, I will say that it seemslike you know, an amazing feat

(43:13):
for watermelon pictures.
Yeah, and for Willa, yeah.
Right.
And I will say that WatermelonPictures did really well at the
short list because and we'll getinto it in a foreign language
film.
Three of the films are in thetop 15.

SPEAKER_02 (43:23):
Yep.
Um, now I was gonna say on itsbest day, Heen Rajab is a
two-nomination movie.
Right.
Best picture and best fore andbest foreign film.
Because it did not make it intosound like you and I thought it
had a shot.
Again, the sound it did getnominated at the European Film
Awards for sound.
Absolutely, but it did not showup in the Oscar shortlist.
That sound, remember, folks, isbeing um sort of um led by the

(43:46):
um Oscar uh nominated uh sounddesigner of All Qui on the
Western Front, um, but still didnot get shortlist at shortlisted
at the Oscar despite thatEuropean Film Award nomination.
Um but so two nominations, whichfunnily enough are the two
nominations, or close to the twonominations that the other plan
B movie got last year, yeahNickel Boys, screenplay and

(44:08):
picture.

SPEAKER_01 (44:08):
Yeah, and so like is there enough like fanfare for
Plan B and these movies thatthey support and that they you
know throw their weight behindto like sort of get that last
tenth spot, you know, you know,and I think that's another thing
to consider because if we'regonna take out Avatar and we're
not gonna put a big franchisemoney-making film in that last

(44:31):
spot, you know, I really likethe idea of going for a film
again that's gonna muster thatthose passion votes, but also I
would like there to be a filmfrom a studio that's not already
represented in the best picturelineup because this is an odd
year where we're getting so manystudios repeating oms.
And I think that goes to showthe kind of year that it's been

(44:53):
where the strongest films werecame out from a very select
group of studios.
So we have Netflix getting inwith possibly two films, we have
Neon getting in with possiblytwo films, we have Warner
Brothers getting in with twofilms, uh, we have Netflix
getting in with two films.
Um I don't know if I alreadysaid that, but uh Focus Features
is one of the few films thatmight be getting in, you know,

(45:15):
uh that's you know, only gettingin once, possibly.
And that's if we don't includethe Venice stat.
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (45:21):
Yeah, if we include the Venice stat, maybe they get
two in also.
Right.

SPEAKER_01 (45:23):
So I like the idea of that ninth and tenth spot
being, you know, films fromdifferent studios that isn't
just Netflix and Neon, etc.
A24s on Twitter.
That's a very gooddisappointing.
That's a very good point.
Um and you know, there isAvatar, which is, you know, um
uh 20th century studios, I meanaka Disney, right?
Right.
Um, but you know, WatermelonPictures would be a different

(45:46):
studio making it to a top 10, itwould be a groundbreaking moment
for them because to get to makeit all the way to best picture.
Right.
Most people haven't even heardof watermelon pictures, even
though they have terrific filmson their lineup year after year.

SPEAKER_02 (45:57):
It would be watermelon and Willa, and Plan B
is there for support, butobviously plan B is the one
that's really well connected.
Right.
Um, but I can see the headlinenow where like, you know, three
foreign films actually do makeit in for best picture, except
the third one is not a Neonmovie.
It's actually a movie fromWatermelon and Willa.
Right.
And it's this movie called uhHeen Rajab.
And then also, you know, HeenRajab spoils the perfect score

(46:21):
that Neon is trying to get inforeign film, right?

SPEAKER_01 (46:24):
Which most people are pegging at this point for
Neon to go perfect into foreignfilm.
Most people are pegging Surrattand other choice, and then the
three obvious ones, which arethe secret agent.
The three locked ones.
Yeah, Sentimental Valley, and itwas just an accident.
Um, yeah, it is uh, I thinkpoised to spoil that lineup.
You and I have been feeling verystrongly about that.
I don't see how this moviedoesn't get an eye for foreign
language.
Well, I think it can happen, butI don't I don't think it's

(46:47):
likely.

SPEAKER_02 (46:47):
There are gonna be some people like Alexander Payne
who um don't necessarily see themovie as the most creatively
ambitious or artisticallyambitious.
And there's maybe some merit tothat.

SPEAKER_01 (46:57):
Or maybe that that it's concept first.
Yeah, you know, before actual,you know, before you know a drum
uh a dramatization.

SPEAKER_00 (47:03):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (47:04):
Um but I'm I kind of agree with you.
My gut says that it will spoilthe perfect score for Neon, on
top of the fact that I don'tthink anyone, I think within the
industry wants to see Neon get aperfect score in foreign film.

SPEAKER_01 (47:17):
Right.
Right.
So certainly I I like that whatyou said about that headline of
you know a third foreign filmgetting in, but it's neither
neon or uh well, Neon alreadyhas two, actually.

SPEAKER_02 (47:27):
It's it's it's it's just not from Neon.
It's not from Neon.
The short list would make youthink that if there's gonna be
any foreign film that gets in,it's gonna be Neon's.

SPEAKER_01 (47:34):
Right.
And and and I think it's alittle bit tricky, you know,
because there is a third alreadyforeign language film that is
well positioned as of now tobreak into the top 10, and
that's uh the secret agent.
Um and so that would be a thirdforeign film from Neon already.
And so possibly if the secretagent were to get in and Neon
were to get in three bestpicture nominees, which is huge,

(47:57):
yeah.
Um, then we're talking aboutfour foreign films getting into
Best Picture.
Does it sound like the Academyis there already where four
foreign films getting high forBest Picture?
I mean, we've been inching upslowly.
You know, we we we started withno foreign films getting in,
then you know, one get onegetting in.
Right.
And then just last year, Ibelieve there were two, weren't
there?
Or certainly in 2023 there weretwo.

(48:18):
Right.
Um, and so we've been inching inthat direction.
Maybe this is the year where wejust go and almost have the list
as foreign films.

SPEAKER_02 (48:25):
I know certain hotheads are gonna have a whole
field day with that, but itcould happen.
I would not I would not besurprised if it did happen.

SPEAKER_01 (48:32):
Right.
Okay, now let's move on and talkabout the short lists with which
came out this week and were ourfirst impression of what the
industry is gravitating towards,what academy members
specifically and importantly aregravitating towards or what
they're not gravitating towards.
Yeah.
Um, some things off we're gonnago category by category, but

(48:52):
some things off the top of myhead.
Uh, Surratt had an amazing, anamazing day and showed up in
several categories.
I want to say that Surratt is,in a way, to me, this year, the
sort of curse that keeps ongiving because this is a film
that we had the opportunity topossibly see in Can, which we

(49:15):
went to earlier this year, andevery single person that we
talked to told us about howfantastic that film was.
It was the talk of Can, and wejust weren't able to catch a
screening for it.
And we thought, oh, well, we'llknow we'll catch it later.
And all these months later, herewe are.
We still haven't seen it, we'restill dying to see it, and now
it's the darkest of horses.

(49:36):
And so, it's in a way, itthere's there's this frustrating
thing with this film that lookslike is so amazing that we had
the opportunity, it escaped ourgrasp, and it's still escaping
our grasp.
Um, but uh so Surrat had anamazing, an amazing day.

SPEAKER_02 (49:52):
I think we tweeted something like that, which is
the winner of the Oscarshortlist was Surratt, because
no film was pegged for so littleand overperformed as much.
And it is super meaningful.
And we had actually talked aboutit because we predicted a lot of
these categories, and we'll gothrough that.
But we had talked aboutSurratt's the sound work on it
is just too good to ignore.

(50:14):
And we we've heard this eversince can and critics have had
their say already, and it'scertainly one of the most
celebrated sound designs of theyear.
Um, everyone says you have towatch another theater, and I
could not um advise uh listenersmore to go watch it in a
theater, go watch it in insurround.
Um, but we had talked about hey,foreign films and sound, they
they get in more often than youthink.

(50:35):
Al Quiet on the Western Front,Amelie, Zone of Interest, Zone
of Interest.
And when they get in, most ofthe time, yeah, they are best
picture movies.
Yeah, you know, let's say theexception here is maybe Amelie.
Amelie would have been a top 10best picture movie, no doubt.
100%.
And so we sort of said, yougotta be careful with Surrat in
Best Picture.
And when you look at the othermentions it got, it just it it

(50:58):
raises that argument even more.
Um, and then we said, like toourselves, Surrat in Best
Picture, well, you know who'sproducing that?
The Amador brothers.

SPEAKER_01 (51:08):
So you have to watch out for Surratt yeah, 100%.
You have to look out forSurratt.
I think it's one of those uh uhcontenders really eyeing for
those last one or two spots thatwe're talking about.
You know, when we're talkingabout, like I said, and like I
said with the voice ofHimverjab, when we're talking
about Avatar and Wicked, why notgo to a film that clearly is
resonating with them in severalbranches?

(51:28):
I mean, casting, casting,cinematography, sound design.
Uh, you know, it was sort ofking at the European Film
Awards, too.
Yeah.
Um, so you know, why not, youknow, uh put your attention on a
film that you feel passionateabout that again is clearly down
the line, right?
Really resonating with thesemembers.

SPEAKER_02 (51:49):
I and I would go further and I would say that
based off this short list, Icould not feel any more
confident.
Not that Surratt's gonna beknocked for best picture, I
don't know about that yet.
But that had Surrat beencampaigned by a studio, a
distributor, that was dedicating100% of their resources behind

(52:09):
the film, it will likely be atop seven movie by now.
Um, because it is Neon, and Neonhas very clearly treated it no
better than fourth, and let's behonest, fifth on their list of
priorities, it is not faringbetter.
But after that day at theEuropean at the European Film
Awards, after getting all thesementions at the Oscar

(52:30):
shortlists, a studio, forexample, like Sony Picture
Classics or Mubi or Moobie wouldhave taken this movie into a
best picture nomination, so muchso that if it is not nominated,
I think it is certainly thefault of Neon possibly being
overburdened by too manycampaigns.
Right.

SPEAKER_01 (52:46):
100% I 100% agree with that.
It was by far, I think, thebiggest success story of the
short list.
I know people want to say thatthe biggest success was Sinners
and Wicked for Good, you know,having uh so many mentions and
you know those are you knowmomentum shifts a momentum shift
for Wicked for Good, but reallyit was expected.

(53:06):
I think it got everywhere thatit's right, but it got
everything that we expected itto.

SPEAKER_02 (53:10):
These lists are designed for Wicked for Good and
for sinners, they should bedoing well here, right?
And so I I will say that, youknow, hats off to the Wicked
campaign.
They did not lose a mention thatthey were supposed to get, which
is great, and it's a totalmomentum shift, total bounce
back, gives them a little bit ofwin in their sales.
But let's be honest, these listswere created to give the Wicked

(53:31):
for Goods and sinners anadvantage and not to cater to
the Surrats.

SPEAKER_01 (53:35):
100%, 100%.
So those uh were the two filmsthat lead.
I don't know if they both gotthe equal amount of mentions,
but they were they were both atthe time.
I think they're both at eight.
Right.
So they're both at the top, butagain, it's it's it was
expected.
They got everywhere that wepredicted and that most people
predicted.
Um, and Lee was completely shutout.
And I just want to mention thattalking about Bad Studios, um,

(53:57):
you know, we had got theprivilege of seeing the film uh
a few months ago, and I'vetalked about it profusely on our
shows.
Um, it's one of my favoritefilms of the year.
Um, but we very distinctly, Iremember distinctly that we
talked about it.
You know, this was a film that Isaw and I was sure that would be
polarizing, and that its bestshot was actress, period.

(54:23):
Yeah.
We we went into an argument, youknow, into a discussion of how
polarized us, yeah.
You thought, you know, yeah,it's a good film.
I'm seeing possibly picture andI saw six.

SPEAKER_02 (54:32):
I saw six, including original score, snub from the
shortlist, song, snuff from theshortlist, cinematography, snuff
from the shortlist.
Right.
All I have left is costume andproduction design.
Right.

SPEAKER_01 (54:43):
Right.
So we we had that difference ofopinion, and again, I loved it.
And it's one of my favorites,and I knew that it was going to
have a hard time.
Uh uh, because it's a polarizingfilm, because it's a film that
requires you to get onto thatwavelength.
I've talked about it before.
I fully understood that this isan Amanda Safried lone nominee

(55:05):
movie from the get-go, and Ithink that I've been proven
right with these short lists.
Uh the film is underperformingleft and right.
You calling it, yeah.
Um, and so really it's not ashocker to me that it did so
poorly here.

SPEAKER_02 (55:19):
Well, I I'm gonna go ahead and say that to me, and
again, you like the film morethan I did.
I enjoyed the film a lot, and Irecommend everyone check it out,
especially on 70 millimeter.
I can't, I can't wait.
I hope they hope they could showthat so we can see it.
Glorious.
Um, but I'm a little surprisedby the snubs.
But I all I can all I canattribute that to is poor
campaigning from Searchlight,who just does not give an F this

(55:41):
year because they don't really,they're not really supporting
any film.
Um, I think they're exhaustedand gassed from getting Bob
Dylan in there last year withComplete Unknown and um getting
a real pain win with KieranColkin.
They just don't have the staminaanymore to do it.
I think we tweeted about that.
Um But I did not think that itwas gonna get, I think what,
completely shut out from allthese.

(56:02):
I mean, when you have acinematography list that did not
go the full 20, by the way,right?
And it could not make it in.
And I I definitely tweeted aboutthis.
Uh Songsung Blue made it in.
And again, no shade to AmyVincent, who's who's wonderful
and who has had great work.
I mean, eats bio.
Um, but Songs and Blue shouldnot be there over Testament of
Band League.
That's just I think the studio'sfault.

SPEAKER_01 (56:25):
I I I I have to differ with you there.
I don't think it's the studio'sfault.
I think it's the film.
The film is like as I said, it'sit's it's it's going to be a
polarizing film, and Searchlightis not the studio to pull it
off.

SPEAKER_02 (56:40):
Dime My Love got into cinematography.
You cannot say that.
I don't think that you can getmore polarizing than Die My
Love.
But the cinematographer.
Well, I mean, so you think it'sbecause Seamus is Seamus?
Yes.
I mean, he's brilliant in thebeautiful film.

SPEAKER_01 (56:54):
But I would never have pegged that that film was
going to get shortlisted foranything.
I think it matters that it'sSeamus McGarvey 100%.
I think if Seamus McGarvey hasshot the testament of Ann Lee on
70 millimeter, it would havebeen um it would have been
shortlisted in cinematography.
That's who you know, maybe so.
But and also I think that that'strue.
And we talked about it after themovie.
I think that's true, you know,for all the texts for Anne Lee,

(57:17):
the production designer, thecostume designer, the makeup and
hairstyling, the makeup andhairstylists.
Um, you know, they're not reallyreally well known figures in
those uh departments.
And I think unfortunately forthose categories, it matters who
you are.
You're seeing it play out, youthink 100%.

(57:38):
And so um, again, I was just notsurprised.
I think it's a bummer becauseit's one of the most beautiful
films in all the departments.
I mean, you know, uh sonically,visually, and uh it's just not
being able to break throughbecause it's that, you know, uh
it's sort of an anomaly.

SPEAKER_02 (57:56):
You think they should have released it earlier,
maybe?

SPEAKER_01 (57:58):
I think it needed a better studio.
I think it needed a differentstudio.
Maybe movie.
Movie kind of has someexperience last year with the
substance kind of you know, uhexcavating uh a path that hasn't
been done yet and beingsuccessful in that.
Maybe they could have donesomething interesting.
Um, but this is a film thatagain is is gonna be so

(58:20):
polarizing.
And I can't imagine I cannotimagine this film doing well at
the box office.
You know, unfortunately, that'ssort of the kind of you know
landscape we're in.
It deserves to do well at thebox office, but it won't.
Um and uh I think that's whatwe're seeing play out here.
So that was a that that was nota surprise to me personally.
You know, the casting categorywas such a letdown.

(58:42):
You know, uh it was such aletdown.
It brings to mind the question,why even have a casting
category?
You know, it's basically thesame 10 films, minus a few uh
interesting exceptions likeSurratt The Secret Agent, which
has an amazing ensemble and anamazing ensemble.
That's um that would be amazingif it were to get in.

(59:03):
You know, it's it's a prettyboring list.
Well, there were someinteresting snubs there, right?

SPEAKER_02 (59:09):
Right, right.
I mean, I I for one wassurprised to say the least that
Jay Kelly did not get in here,right?
And I think that that is veryrevealing.
I I think one thing we cannotdeny is that casting is
important.
The branch is important, and uhto remind everyone they are

(59:31):
getting a um category this yearin which to nominate their five
favorite films or whatever, butthe members of this branch have
been voting among the academyfor years, right?
They just don't have uh theyjust don't have their own
category, but they've beenvoting for years, and so when
you see a casting category thatsays no to J.

(59:53):
Kelly and yes to Frankenstein,it's very revealing.
When you have a casting categorythat doesn't include Nouvelle
Vaughn.
Um, but does include Surat andthe Secret Agent.
It's very revealing.
When you have a casting categorythat will still include Wicked,
it's very revealing.
And so the one thing I thinkthat you cannot argue is that
this will not be an importantcategory, that it cannot that it

(01:00:14):
could possibly be a propheticcategory.
That's what I think.

SPEAKER_01 (01:00:18):
You think that it is a prophetic category?

SPEAKER_02 (01:00:20):
I think it is because I'm not saying that the
secret agent will get in.
I'm saying that the secret agentmentioned among those ten is
going to be pretty powerful.

SPEAKER_03 (01:00:28):
Right.

SPEAKER_02 (01:00:28):
Frankenstein, I do not think is going to get in for
this category.
I certainly don't think that itshould get in for this category.
But that being said, itsinclusion in the 10 certainly
make it seem like it is far andaway the best push for Netflix.
Right.
Um, the same thing for Surratt.
I mean, I don't think Surat'sgonna make this category, but
its inclusion on this list isreally meaningful.

(01:00:50):
Weapons got in here.
I think that is reallymeaningful.
100%.
You know, I think that when welook at the top 10 best pictures
of this year, I want to comeback to this category and I want
to see how much overlap thereis.

SPEAKER_01 (01:01:02):
Yeah, that that's really cool.
But you know, as you uh to yourpoint, there were a lot of
snobs.
So even a film like, you know,it was just an accident, could
have landed here.
And I think a lot of people werehoping that it would.
It didn't.
We thought it would, yeah.
We thought I thought it was adefinite nominee for casting.

SPEAKER_02 (01:01:18):
Brilliantly cast um with a with a wonderful set of
actors.
I think maybe something we'llsee in the future is that
they're not gonna respond toomuch to this whole the director
is the casting director thing.
Yeah, they're gonna feel like Iif you're a director and a
casting director, you kind ofhave your category.
It's called best director.
I want to nominate castingdirectors here.

SPEAKER_01 (01:01:36):
Yeah, I think that's a very good point.
So that was kind of a letdown umon that note of what you just
said about weapons and missedmakeup.
That was surprising.

SPEAKER_02 (01:01:45):
We had discussed it though, a bunch, which was you
know, the problem with weaponsmakeup isn't that it isn't well
done.
It's beautifully done, and theydid a great job.
The problem is that it's a movieand a makeup job that begs the
argument.
Why isn't the person who looksmost suspicious the number one
suspect from the beginning ofthe film?
100%.

(01:02:06):
She's over there having aninterview with the police, and
you're gonna, you know, you'regonna say, you know, never judge
a book by like it's the filmthat makes the argument, judge
as many books by their cover aspossible.

SPEAKER_01 (01:02:17):
You know, I think that's a very good point.
I always had, you know, I I likeweapons, I'm not as high on it
as some other people, but I likeit enough.
I prefer you know, Barbarianmore, um, his first film.
But that's something that alwaysbothered me about this film.
You know, why do we have to makeAmy Madigan's character look

(01:02:39):
like a clown?
What was the what what's thethinking?
What's the story?
Yeah, what's the story therebesides, oh, you know what would
be really creepy if she lookedlike a clown?

SPEAKER_02 (01:02:47):
Yeah, you know, it it it's like she's obviously not
trying to hide herself verywell, right?

SPEAKER_01 (01:02:52):
100%.
You know, I just don't feel likethere's enough reasoning behind
her look.
And I think the film waspunished for that.
I think that's a really goodpoint.
And you know, it sucks becausetake that part of her character
out when she's more, you know,without the you know, makeup and
you're seeing the real, youknow, demon, you know, it's

(01:03:13):
really effective.
Yeah, you know, that's that thatthose are segments of the film
where the makeup really sings.
Yeah, you know, and then there'sthe other section, which this is
clown.

SPEAKER_02 (01:03:21):
Again, it's well done.
I just think that the branchsort of took it out on them in
terms of it didn't really servethe story, right?

SPEAKER_01 (01:03:30):
So that was surprising.
I know that in uh visual effectsthey didn't include two films
that we thought had a very goodshot of making it in, which were
Mickey 17 and Predators.
You were a big fan of Predators.
Oh, that is so disappointing.
Yeah, um, you had talked aboutSung Song Blue and
cinematography, that was weird.
Uh Sound of Falling making it tocinematography, that was really

(01:03:50):
cool.

SPEAKER_02 (01:03:51):
But it did do well at the camera image.
So we kind of thought I I kindof thought at the end that Sound
of Falling maybe wasn't going toqualify because of the film.

SPEAKER_01 (01:03:59):
Yeah, I thought so too.
I thought so too.
For documentary films, we hadsome snubs.
Uh a big one that got snubbedfrom documentary and foreign
film is actually The Tale ofSulian.

SPEAKER_02 (01:04:07):
Yeah.
Um which we predicted in indocumentary, and that's from the
filmmaker who made Honeylandfrom North North Macedonia that
broke records in 2019.

SPEAKER_01 (01:04:17):
Um Orwell was another documentary that um
people have really liked.

SPEAKER_02 (01:04:20):
Which we kind of thought was not going to make it
in because it was maybe a littletoo broad.

SPEAKER_01 (01:04:24):
Yeah.
Um, Predators, which was one ofmy one of my favorite films of
the year, as well.
Uh unfortunately got snubbedhere.
MTV Films usually does well inthese uh in this documentary
category, not this year.
Um, an international film, likewe said earlier in the episode,
three watermelon pictures filmsmade it into the top 15.
So people who are, you know,possibly uh chained to this idea

(01:04:46):
that it will be all five for umthe foreign language film uh
nominees will be all neon films.
You know, it begs to questionwell, if if watermelon pictures
did so well here, don't youthink they would at least get
one of their nominees in?
Especially when one of thosefilms is the voice of Henry Job.

SPEAKER_02 (01:05:02):
That is an amazing point.
It hadn't occurred to me nowthat between Neon and
Watermelon, you have more thanhalf this list.
Right.
Right?
You have eight of 15 nominees.
And so I think that we'rebuilding up the argument for
watermelon crashes neon's littleperfect party in the foreign
film, and maybe that can evengrow into something bigger.
And I think that's a watermelon.

SPEAKER_01 (01:05:24):
Right.
And I think and watermelon is ais a terrific studio of terrific
uh films.
Um and I will say that mostpeople are going to be
surprised, possibly, when we saythat the short end of the stick
in these neon films belongs toanother choice.
It's not, it was just anaccident or sentimental value,
those are done.
It's likely not the secretagent, and it doesn't look like

(01:05:46):
it's Sarah.
It does not look like it'sSarah.
So really, it's no other choice.
Despite, you know, it's one ofthe best films of the year, it's
one of my favorite films of theyear.
Um, and uh, it's doing well onthe precursors.

SPEAKER_02 (01:05:57):
Um did well on the golden globes.
Is it got no best picture now?

SPEAKER_01 (01:06:01):
Exactly.
Despite all those things, it'sfifth.
It's fifth.
It would seem like it.
So if voice of Him Rajab isgonna spoil the party, that's
the spot it takes, I think.

SPEAKER_02 (01:06:10):
You would you would think, um, but there is a lot of
critical support for it.
Um, again, just that idea thatthe distributor neon is just
overburdened by too manycampaigns.

SPEAKER_01 (01:06:21):
Um something that was cool.
I haven't seen it yet, but I Iknow that a few filmmakers are
big fans of, and you are too, ismakeup.
Uh the ugly step the uglystepsister was able to get it.

SPEAKER_02 (01:06:30):
The single best shortlist mention of the day was
the mention for the uglystepsister in makeup.
It could not be more deserved.
I'm praying that it makes itinto the Final Five.
It is glorious and disgustingand should totally be in there
and should be competitive towin, but it should at least be
nominated.

SPEAKER_01 (01:06:50):
And interestingly enough, Nuremberg, you know,
made had a couple of mentions.
I believe it got first, Ibelieve it made the shortlist
for score.
It certainly made makeup.
And so that's a film that at onepoint you and I were predicting
for best picture, um, because wewere seeing that you know the
audience reaction was strongwith this film.
And it if you see the film, it'ssomething that's very

(01:07:10):
comfortable that you could seeuh a certain faction of the
academy comfortably voting forvery old school, very
traditional.
When it underperformed at theglobes, which I thought was its
biggest opportunity, you know,um, we sort of uh became a lot
cooler on it.
But you know, it had some hadsome resurgence here a little
bit.
Nice to see it being matched.
I wonder if in makeup where weshould see at least one nominee

(01:07:31):
be, you know, a film whosemakeup caters around real life
figures.
I wonder if a film likeNuremberg might have more
mileage than a film like TheSmashing Machine.
Ah, it's interesting point, youknow, which would be shocking
for a lot of people, butpossibly it's just the I mean,
considering the box office, onedid better than the other, even
if one made more money, onestill uh is more and more in

(01:07:53):
profit than the other.
Yeah.
Um, I wonder if that's somethingthat could be brewing.
That's a good point.
I think it's a solid point.
Um, and just looking at thecategories uh uh directly in
casting, we've mentioned it.
Uh for international film, wegot four wrong because we
predicted uh Magellan, Mr.
Nobody Against Putin, that wouldhave got documentary and foreign

(01:08:14):
film.
Um, A Poet and My Father'sShadow, which has been doing
terrifically uh with uh certainuh precursors.

SPEAKER_02 (01:08:22):
And what I will say to that is that UK was on a
streak between Santosh and thezone of interest.
Um, people are really respondingto My Father's Shadow.
Mubi does really well here.
It still couldn't get this inand only got Santa Falling in.
Denmark does really well here,so that's why we thought Mr.
Nobody Against Putin, it missesfor the first time in a long
time.
And Janice, which has becomesort of a favorite here, got uh

(01:08:43):
flowing last year to a couplecategories.
Magellan still misses.

SPEAKER_01 (01:08:46):
Yeah, and instead, uh they included Late Shift,
which you know, I I was prettyum, you know, I I I thought I
thought that was a very definitepossibility.
It's a film that's playing wellto with uh with audiences and it
had an appearance.
I think it won the camera imageaward, um uh the cinematography
award, very prestigious.

(01:09:07):
Um, all that's left of you uhfrom Watermelon Pictures,
Kokuho, which actually made asecond appearance on this uh
short list.

SPEAKER_02 (01:09:14):
One of the few, I think, live action films from
JK.
So it's great to see great tosee Japan there with Kokuho.
And Homebound, yeah, from India,which uh notably was executive
produced by Marcus Crusesezi.
That's why we had thought it wasone of our initial like fifth 15
contenders when we um put up ourour predictions on our website,
right?
Um, and yeah, great to seehomebound in there as well.

SPEAKER_01 (01:09:37):
And documentary, as we mentioned, the tale of Celion
Predators did not get in, aswell as Natches, which we
predicted, The Librarians, whichwas something that was pegged to
get in, Suburban Fury, andinstead we got Coexistence My
Ass, Cutting Through Rocks,which I think was always uh uh a
dark horse contender.
It won the um a Sundance Awardfor in World Cinema on the World

(01:10:00):
Cinema section uh fordocumentary, uh Cutting Through
Rocks, folktales, which was alsowent to Sundance, holding Leah.
What Darren Aronofsky's on thatone, right?
And uh won a prize at Berlin, Ibelieve, and Mistress the
Speller, which I've heard reallygreat things about.
So those fours made it in.

SPEAKER_02 (01:10:15):
Kind of interesting because I think in the
documentary category, what's onething that you did see was a lot
of Sundance.
Yeah, so definitely you know,Sundance still a great place to
debut your documentary and toget audiences to see your
documentary and a great place tostart your campaign.

SPEAKER_01 (01:10:30):
Yeah.
And um in cinematography, we gotfour wrong.
Unfortunately, 28 years laterdidn't make any list, which is
which was a big bummer.
Hedda didn't make it, and Lee,we've talked about, and Jay
Kelly surprisingly didn't makeit.
And instead, five other filmsmade it.
Die My Love made it, which I'mso I couldn't be happier about.
It's one of the most beautifulfilms of the year.
Um, Song Sung Blue made it,which is a puzzle.

(01:10:52):
Well, I guess considering whothe cinematographer is, maybe
maybe less of a puzzle.

SPEAKER_02 (01:10:56):
I mean, I I don't think Amy Vincent has gotten her
due, but I don't think that SongSung Blue is her best work.

SPEAKER_01 (01:11:03):
Right.
Uh Sound of Falling, which isreally nice to see.
Sentimental Value, which Ithought was surprising.

SPEAKER_02 (01:11:08):
Meaningful.

SPEAKER_01 (01:11:09):
I think this is meaningful.
And the Ballad of a SmallPlayer, which is a good one.
Which we should have seencoming.
We should have seen coming.

SPEAKER_02 (01:11:14):
And I'm gonna call it right now Ballad of a Small
Player is gonna could possiblysurprise a lot of people and get
nominated at the guild.
I'm just gonna say for thecinematographers, right?

SPEAKER_01 (01:11:26):
Uh wow, that'd be that that'd be big.
Um, but yeah, you're right.
It's one of those where you'rekind of like, why didn't I see
that coming?
Yeah, you know, uh, makeup, wegot five wrong, uh, weapons,
blue moon, Christie, 28 yearslater, and Wolfman did not make
the cut.
And instead, Kokuho, Nuremberg,the Eggly Stepsister, one battle
after another, big and MartySupreme got in.

(01:11:48):
I think the one battle afteranother people have to watch out
for.
You know, even though it hasbasically one set piece that
they're focusing on, basically,when we're talking about makeup,
and that's what happens withSean Penn's character.
You know, I do think that WarnerBrothers is pushing that
nomination, and it could happen.

SPEAKER_02 (01:12:05):
I think there's a couple of things here.
I mean, disappointing not to seesome of the films um that were
left out.
I thought Christy would for surebe a contender here, but maybe
again it just was not popularenough.
It was sort of dismissed at thebox office.
Um, disappointing that theystill have this thing against
zombie films, no 28 years later,best makeup job of the year,
possibly.
Um, Wolfman, the legacy film isgone.

(01:12:26):
Um correct me if I'm wrong, butthe Alto Knights made it in.
Yeah, and we had sort of saidthat was a dark horse all year,
no weapons.
I think one of the most uh uhmeaningful snubs here is the one
for Blue Moon because that meansthat there is a very real chance
that Ethan Hawk is completely byhimself here.
I mean, we're talking about acategory that recognized the

(01:12:47):
makeup of Walting with Brandlelast year, and I'm not knocking
the makeup.
What I am saying is that youdon't have to have a film that
has this robust Academy Awardnominated makeup team.
No, the makeup team of Waltzingwith Brando, like Blue Moon,
very modest.
They just did a very umcompelling, believable job.
And despite all that, Blue Moondid not make it on this list.

(01:13:09):
I do think that that is possiblya weak spot for the film.

SPEAKER_01 (01:13:12):
Interesting.
I think that's that's very true.
Uh, original score, we got fivewrong.
Uh Fantastic Four did not makeany short list, which was a
surprise, especially for VisualEffects.
Northern Choice, Rental Family,and the Testament of An Lee did
not get in.
All of them didn't get in.
And the ones that did get inwere Captain America, Diane
Warren's documentary got in forscore, which was surprising to

(01:13:35):
say the least.
Uh Nuremberg got in, Wake UpDeadman got in.
Did Wake Up Dead Man get in forcast at the end?
I think it did.
I'm not 100% positive.
Not a great day for Wake Up DeadMan, but not the worst.
No, not at all.
Um, original song.

SPEAKER_02 (01:13:48):
Actually, we did pretty well.
We only got three wrong.
By the way, I just want to goahead and correct us.
I just referenced that rightnow.
Wake Up Dead Man did not getinto casting.
Okay.

SPEAKER_01 (01:13:55):
All right.
So it just I think it just gotuh score, and that's it.
It was not shut out, it was notEnly song.
Uh for original song, we onlygot three wrong.
Um, we thought that the other F1song would get in, the one with
Doja Cat that did not get in.
Neither did the I uh Arco song,which is beautiful, or An Lee,
as we've said.
Instead, the Billy Idol songfrom the documentary got in.

(01:14:18):
Uh the Tron, uh Ares song fromNine Inch Nails got in.

SPEAKER_02 (01:14:22):
Tron, I think, did pretty well here because I mean,
well, listen, obviously theylove uh Reznor and Ross.
Uh, watch out for them becausethey were you know egregiously
snub last year.
They are up for song, they areup for score, and Tron got a
surprising mention in visualfacts.
I mean, and that filmmaker, youknow, he's no stranger to
getting his film nominated foran Academy Award.

(01:14:43):
He directed Contiki, which wasnominated for Foreign Film, he
directed Maleficent, the secondone, um, which got on here for
makeup.
So don't sleep on Tron.
I mean, three mentions for Tronis more mentions for Tron than
for An Lee.

SPEAKER_01 (01:14:54):
Right.
And the last one is from adocumentary, I believe, Viva
Verdi.
Yeah.
Um, Verdi.
Viva Verdi, I think I'm sayingthat right.
Um, and uh sound design, weactually only got one wrong
there, which is kind of cool.
Yeah, uh, we missed the lostbus, and instead Mission
Impossible got in.

SPEAKER_02 (01:15:12):
Which again, I will say, as a fan of Dead Reckoning,
Mission Impossible has nobusiness being in this sound
category.
Um, I do, you know, I think it'srevealing that this is its only
mention.
It missed out in visual effects.
Which it got nominated.
And last year it finally brokethe streak.
And when it got nominated forits first set of Academy Awards

(01:15:32):
for Visual Effects and Sound,this time it only makes it into
the sound shortlist.
So, I mean, you know, one stepforward, one step back, the
franchise still gets shortlistedsomewhere, but they miss out the
visual effects shortlist.

SPEAKER_01 (01:15:42):
Right.
And uh for visual effects, wegot three wrong.
Like I said, uh Predators ofBadland, uh Mickey 17, and
Fantastic Four are out.
And instead we had F1, which wepredicted would get snubbed.
It did not, um, and looks prettygood right now for a nomination.
Uh The Lost Bus and Tron Ares.

SPEAKER_02 (01:15:59):
And we sort of talked about this idea that now
this visual effects category,not only is Avatar going to win,
and you could possibly not evenneed to nominate anyone else but
Avatar, but you have so manyfilms nominated um shortlisted
that A were not well received,um, but B, they're sort of films
with supporting visual effects.
They're not visual effectsfirst, and I include their F1,

(01:16:21):
um, which tries to do a lot incamera, and obviously it's not
as visual effects forward asAvatar, and the same thing with
The Lost Bus.
And so it's gonna force us toconsider, you know, these really
poorly received films.
Like, I think we're about to seeJurassic World, the Jurassic
Series, whatever, get its firstnomination since The Lost World,
and that's 1997.

(01:16:43):
So that's how thin this categoryis.

SPEAKER_01 (01:16:47):
Um, and uh just briefly in the live action
short, we got eight wrong.
In the documentary short, we gotsix wrong, and in the animated
short, we got eight wrong.
So those are our worstcategories.
These are always tough topredict, but I'd be tough.
I bet I'm happy.
You know, we got about halfright.
Now I will say we did actuallypretty well in documentary
short.

SPEAKER_02 (01:17:06):
And there's a lot of films that we predicted that we
got a chance to see.
That's great to see them there.
Um, for example, The Singers wasa wonderful film, and it's it's
it's shortlisted.
There are also a lot of filmsthat we watched that we really
wanted them to show up, and theyjust did not make it in, um,
which is disappointing.
Um, but yeah, these are alwaysalways tricky, and we're gonna
work really hard to try to getas close to the final five as

(01:17:27):
possible.
But again, really toughcategories.

SPEAKER_01 (01:17:29):
These are always the tough cat the toughest
categories, and in the in a waythey kind of make or break both
your you know how many you getright at you know, come
nominations and also how manyyou get right come wins.
Yeah, that your bottom line herereally drops through the floor.
That's also one reason why Ifeel so passionate about getting
it right.
Right.

(01:17:49):
All right, and what else isgoing on?
Obviously, we've had a uh anavalanche of precursors, critics
groups come out and give theirwins.
That again will be up on ourwebsite and our charts and our
per category and ourpredictions, you know.
And as we said when we startedoff the show, you know, take in
the precursors.
It can be fun to see who'sgetting in, who's not getting
in, who's ahead, who's notahead.

(01:18:11):
But don't put too much stockinto it because again, what
critics groups think is ausually consensus anyway, and B,
it's not what the industrythinks.
And what prevails here, what'sking here is always what the
actual industry thinks, becausethat's actual members who are
voting.
And oftentimes those members whoare voting are not, uh, don't

(01:18:33):
have the same uh, let's say,inclinations that uh critics
have.
So keep that in mind.
That being said, there are a fewprecursors that over the years
um Joseph and I, you know, arevery attentive to because we
feel like they tap into kind ofthe the they think similarly to
what um uh some members mightthink, or rather that their wins

(01:18:57):
and nominees tend to parallel,you know, in a way the eventual
Oscar nominees in a way that Ithink is interesting to
statistically they have you knowum higher uh statistical overlap
overlap.
Um so we saw some of that.
Uh the Chicago film critics,that's a group that we look at.
They usually, you know, whenthere's been surprises, they've

(01:19:17):
popped up there to some degree.
Dallas Fort Worth Film Criticsis always a one, is always one
that we we like to look at,especially because in their
acting categories and directingcategories, they they number
them.
So we get to see, you know,who's strong and who's less
strong.
Um, so that's a good one to lookout for.
London Film Critics Circle, youknow, that that also um uh has

(01:19:37):
some good uh pressing sometimes.
Exactly.
Um Southeastern Film Critics,Sefka, um, that's another one.
And recently we got theAustralian Academy uh give their
nominees.
Uh they have uh two kinds ofceremonies.
One is for Australian filmsspecifically, and then the other
one is for international filmsand the international awards.

(01:20:00):
Where you'll see a lot of theOscar contenders pop up.
And that's always a reallyinteresting one because again,
like the BAFTA, there's overlapbetween the Australian Academy
and the Oscars.
Obviously, you've seen films,you know that there's several
Australian films.

SPEAKER_02 (01:20:14):
I mean, even yeah, even in America, like some our
biggest some of our biggestacting actors are our Australian
actors.
Right.

SPEAKER_01 (01:20:20):
So they'll be part of both branches.
And so it's cool to see thosenominees too.
Um, and uh, you know, that canbe somewhat telling.
You know, I remember as you saidat the beginning of the show,
you know, they were one of theonly critics' groups to
highlight Judy Dench for Belfastin a time and place where nobody
was even looking at Judy Dench.
And everyone was looking atKatrina Ball for that movie.

SPEAKER_00 (01:20:42):
Right.

SPEAKER_01 (01:20:42):
And she ended up winning that award uh for the
Australian Academy.
Lo and behold, she getsnominated for the Oscar.
You know, so without manyprecursors, by the way.
Yeah.
So don't sleep on you know whothey mentioned and who they left
out.
Yeah.
You know, because I think it canbe somewhat telling.
You know, the fact that someonelike Rose Byrne, even though

(01:21:03):
again, she is there's always alittle bit of advantage, right?

SPEAKER_02 (01:21:06):
If you're an Australian actor.

SPEAKER_01 (01:21:08):
So Joe Ederton uh makes several appearances here.
So, you know, you know, sopossibly Rose Byrne getting in
here might not be as you know,um prescient, possibly, but
still it is a film like if ahead legs that kick you.
Yeah, it would be worse if shehad not got it in here.
Yes, I would be very talling.
Yes.
Um, so I think that's a good guyfor Rose Byrne.

(01:21:29):
Someone like Chase Infinitymanages to get in here.
I think that's big.
That's pretty meaningful.
No supporting actress got in forone battle after another.
Oh, that's an I think whichwhich and if you look, you know,
um, someone like Al Fanningmanaged to get in, but someone
like Inga didn't know If SatyrLilias did not.
And we've been on this trainthat, you know, possibly if

(01:21:50):
there is a tour for a film, it'sone battle and not sentimental
value.
Here we are, L gets in and Ingadoesn't.
We think something similarlywill happen at the SAG, you
know.
So you it's it's reallyinteresting to see, you know, um
uh people who are included,people who are excluded.

SPEAKER_02 (01:22:06):
Yeah, I I I think that I I would put the
Australian Academy like rightthere with the European Film
Awards.
Like you're gonna get industryoverlap there between BAFTAs,
Australian Academy, EuropeanFilm Awards.
So you have to be payingattention to all of those.

SPEAKER_01 (01:22:18):
Nuremberg got an iron for best actor and best
picture people.

SPEAKER_02 (01:22:22):
Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 (01:22:22):
So, you know, again, I'm not saying that Nuremberg is
definitely gonna get nominated,but what I am saying is that
there's a pocket of people whowill be voting for the Academy
Awards who like that movie.
Yeah.
Um, so that's interesting.
Uh, that was just a quick noteon that.
I think next we're gonna moveinto having a preview of who we
think is going to win theCritics Choice Awards, which
are, I believe, on January 4th.

SPEAKER_03 (01:22:44):
Right.

SPEAKER_01 (01:22:45):
And so let's start with uh Best Picture.
Um, well, you know, just beforethat, I'll just say a quick
note.
You know, I think the go theCritics Choice Awards this year
are happening before the GoldenGlobes.
Um, I think I've heard a lot ofpeople be like, oh, we're going
before the Golden Globes.
It's happened already.
But it's happened already, Ibelieve.
It's not the first time thishappens.

(01:23:05):
And um, if I might be mistaken,but I don't think so.
Um and I I guess I just want toreiterate something we've said.
We give the critics choice a lotof flack for their kind of you
know, uh gold derby, predict theOscars mindset.
And they really get theiropportunity to kind of, you
know, be in a way free from allthose things when they go first

(01:23:29):
because they're not influencedby what the Globe, who the
Globes gave it to, or who theSAGs gave it to.
You know, I'll never forgetinstances where all of a sudden,
you know, someone like JessicaChastain wins the uh Critics
Choice Award right after winningthe SAG Award for Best Actress,
and it was clear that she wasprobably going to be the winner
that year instead of giving itto probably the contender that

(01:23:50):
they wanted to give it to, um,uh, or that they might have been
more passionate about that year,which probably was Kristen
Stewart Spencer.

SPEAKER_02 (01:23:57):
Um remember when they tied, I think weren't they
the first ones to tie SandraBullock with Meryl Streep?

SPEAKER_01 (01:24:02):
Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 (01:24:02):
What the Yeah.
I mean, again, one of the mostcritically acclaimed films, and
then one of the most middle ofthe road films for critics that
year.

SPEAKER_01 (01:24:08):
So right, right.
And and as we said, you know,that mindset I think really
bites them in the butt.
They gave the win to John M.
Chu last year.
Yeah, who didn't even show upthis year as a nominee.
What kind of call was that?
You know, it's just it's justplain sometimes, it's just plain
ridiculousness sometimes, plain,you know, buffoonery sometimes.
Um, but either way, it's atelevised event, so we'll, you

(01:24:30):
know, uh predict we'll we'll saywho we predict will win, but I
think a lot of these are goingto be pretty obvious.
I think they're gonna name Ithink there's well, we'll see.
I think there's some momentswhere they might deviate a
little bit, and that's whenthey're quote unquote at their
best.
Yeah.
So in 2023, yeah.
In 2023, it was cool to see thatthey gave it to Emma Stone and

(01:24:53):
Paul Dramati for best actressand best actor, because that
felt like who they liked themost.
They didn't give it to KillianMurphy?
No, they didn't.
Actually, one of the fewprecursors, um, televised
precursors that did not.
And I think that's interestingbecause at least that shows me
that I guess Paul Dramati hadthat passion um to land him a
win.
But that's something that wesee, you know, very little with

(01:25:15):
this uh with this organization.
Uh we'll see what happens thisyear when they go before the
Golden Globes.
Uh, that being said, I do expectthem to follow consensus.
And the consensus right nowwould be that best picture would
obviously be one battle afteranother.
Do you agree?

SPEAKER_02 (01:25:30):
Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 (01:25:31):
Um God.
Are we gonna say something?
No.
Um for best director, I thinkit's clearly Paul Thomas
Anderson for one battle afteranother.
Again, the I think the onlypossible film that they would
consider is Sinners and RyanKugler, but I don't think that's
gonna pan out.
It's one battle and one battle.
For actress, if they were beinghonest, no, they would probably

(01:25:51):
give it to, in my opinion, ifthey were being honest, they
would probably give it to umRose Byrne because she's been
doing so well in these majorprecursors.
She doesn't have the mostprecursors, but she has the
biggest ones.
Um, but they're gonna go withwho they believe is going to win
the Oscar, and I 100% believethat she will, and that's Jesse
Buckley for Hamlet.
I agree.

(01:26:12):
Um, for best actor, again, Ireally feel that they're gonna
go with who's gonna win theOscar here, and that is they
firmly believe will be TimothyChalamet.
We'll see if they throw in awrench here and they give it to
possibly someone they rathergive it to, like for example,
Leo DiCaprio.
Um, there's been some mumblingsthat he could might get his

(01:26:32):
second Oscar here, especially ifthe whole Timothy Chalamet
campaign thing doesn't work, andwe haven't talked about that
yet.

SPEAKER_02 (01:26:39):
Actually, I think that after last year's win at
the Oscars from Mikey Madison, Ithink most of the critic's
choice voters are gonna be onthis whole um idea that one of
the acting winners.
She didn't win the critic'schoice award.
No, but she won the Oscar.
Oh.
And so I think that's gonnaconvince them that, well, at
least one of my acting winnershas to be the best picture
winner or whatever.

(01:26:59):
And so I think that's gonna endup breaking for Leo.
I think Leo will end up winningthe critic's choice.

SPEAKER_01 (01:27:05):
Uh we'll see.
I think this is an opportunityfor them.
I don't think they'll take it,and I think they'll go with the
front runner, which is TimothyChalaman.
I think I mean, if we're beinghonest, I think that Timothy,
well, I guess I don't know.
I was gonna say that maybeTimothy's only loss might be the
sag because he just won lastyear.
So I fully expect him to losethe sag this year, but we'll
see.
Um, so I'm saying Timothy,you're saying Leo.

(01:27:27):
Yeah.
Um, for supporting actors, Ithink this one's really easy.
I know there are gonna be peoplewho are gonna say Ariana Grande
because they're big fans of thefilm and of um Ariana Grande.
Some people are gonna be veryhigh on Tayana Taylor.
Um, I think this is an easy winfor Amy Madigan.
I would be surprised if shedidn't win.
Um, just because I think thatit's become clear with the

(01:27:48):
precursors that she's thecritic's favorite.
Um, and second is someone likeTayana Taylor.
Um, so I'm thinking that this isa win for Amy Madigan.

SPEAKER_02 (01:27:57):
I think it is a win for Amy Madigan, but be careful
because we've recentlyreassessed, and maybe we'll
discuss this in further detaildown the road.
But Wumi Musaku is right there,she's right where she needs to
be to pull off an upset.

SPEAKER_01 (01:28:12):
We're gonna talk about this hopefully in later
episodes, but you and I, youknow, revisited Sinners
recently, having seen um Sinnersagain uh with the recent
re-release.
Um, I think people might besleeping on Woommi Musaku as a
possible eventual winner of thiscategory.
Because if weapons doesn't makeinto best picture and Amy

(01:28:33):
Madigan ends up being the onlynominee for weapons, I think
that's something that hurts herchances to win this category.
Also, we don't know yet howthey're gonna react with the
kind of film it is.
It's not the kind of film thateven doesn't win Oscars and
doesn't even get nominated forOscars.
Right.
Um, so if she manages thenomination, can she really win?
Especially if she's by herself,Tiana Taylor would make sense,

(01:28:56):
especially if what we believe tobe true happens, which is that
um one battle breaks records andgets possibly all six actors
nominated.
Um, it would make sense forthere to be a win here in this
category for Tiana Taylor.
However, I think her characteris um some some voters might
have an issue with um and andand feel that's a little bit too

(01:29:17):
prickly for them.
Um you have someone perfect inWui Mosaku, who is in a best
picture uh favorite in a toptwo, top three best picture
film.
Um uh gives your winner somediversity.
She's terrific in the film, um,and it could be a win for uh
Sinners in the actingdepartment.

(01:29:39):
And I expect, for example,Sinners to win the sag ensemble,
for example, so it would makesense.

SPEAKER_02 (01:29:43):
And also, I mean, between all the Warner Brothers
performances, one could arguethat it's possibly the most
redeeming character.

SPEAKER_01 (01:29:50):
I think that's very true.
I think that's very true.
I think that's a very goodpoint, actually.

SPEAKER_02 (01:29:55):
I think she's gonna have some good UK support.
Right.
So definitely watch out forWound Me.
Can I see her spoiling the nighthere and taking it from Amy
Madigan?

SPEAKER_01 (01:30:04):
Interesting.
It could happen.
Interesting.
I think supporting actors willbe the most exciting acting
category to see, at least in thebeginning, televised precursors.

SPEAKER_00 (01:30:13):
Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 (01:30:13):
Because we're not quite sure what's gonna happen
there.
I mean, I will be honest, I'dsay I think that Amy Madigan
will win this, but would I beshocked if Tiana Taylor wins?
Would I be shocked if ArianaGrande wins?
Will I be shocked if Inga ops uhInga um Ipsotter or Lilias wins?
Not really, I wouldn't be.
So it would be interesting tosee what happens here in this
category, right?

(01:30:34):
All right.
I mean, can't you see any ofthose wins?
I mean, I feel c I feel goodabout I mean Maddie and but it I
could see any of those wins.

SPEAKER_02 (01:30:40):
Maybe without Inga, I do think that the double
nomination there for thesentimental uh actors could be a
factor, maybe.

SPEAKER_01 (01:30:48):
Um, but I any of them could win.

SPEAKER_00 (01:30:50):
Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 (01:30:50):
Uh for supporting actor, um, this one I think is a
little bit tougher.
Um, because if they were beinghonest, they would probably want
to give it to Benicio Latoro,who's been doing well with the
precursors, at least I think,but they're gonna go with who
they think is gonna win theOscar.
And I wholeheartedly think thatthat's Stan Skarsgar for
Sentimental Value, so I say hewins.
I and I but I if again, if theywere being themselves, they

(01:31:13):
would either give it to Benicioor they'd give it to the passion
pick, which would be JacobAlordy for Frankenstein.

SPEAKER_02 (01:31:19):
I have always tweeted, I tweeted when after we
saw the movie, Benicio Toro isthe performance to win here in
supporting actor between the twoone battle actors.
In fact, I would argue that astime goes on and Sean is
winless, Sean is in more danger.

SPEAKER_01 (01:31:34):
He's he's won some critics' roots, but you mean
televised precursors?

SPEAKER_02 (01:31:38):
He's just very clearly second to Benicio.
Um, I think we've always been ofthe thought that Stellan
Skarsgard is the winner here.
Um, and I think there's still alot to suggest that's the case.
Um I think the person to watchout here is Jacob.
I think Jacob will end up beingthe surprise here.

(01:31:58):
If they were themselves, itwould be Jacob.
I feel like the win is going togo to Jacob.
Um, I'm not sure if he's gonnabe able to close it out and get
a nomination at the end, but Ido think that he will get a win
here.

SPEAKER_01 (01:32:10):
So you so you're saying that?
I think Jacob will be.
Okay, so I'm saying they go withwho they think is gonna win the
Oscar, and that's clearlyStalin.
Uh for original screenplay, Ithink this one's more a little
bit more interesting.
Uh the precursors have certainlybroken for Sinners, I think I
believe, with the most uh winsin the original screenplay
category.
Um at the Oscars, I don't thinkthat'll be the case.

(01:32:32):
That being said, I think they'regonna go with Sinners for best
original screenplay.

SPEAKER_02 (01:32:37):
I agree with you.
I agree with you.
I think they're I mean it'sgonna be one of the few places
to get Ryan Kugler on stage, andI think they're not gonna pass
that off.

SPEAKER_01 (01:32:44):
100%.
Uh for our Dapid Screenplay, Ithink this is an easy one.
I think it is one battle afteranother.
Um, close second is probablyHamnet, but I think it's a
distant second.
You agree?
Yeah, I agree.
Ensemble.
I think this one is certainlybetween sinners and one battle,
and I give the edge to centers.

SPEAKER_02 (01:33:01):
I agree.

SPEAKER_01 (01:33:02):
Uh young actor, young actress.
I think this is a battle betweenMiles Canton for Sinners and uh
Jacoby Jupe for Hamlet.
You know, I personally wouldpick Jacoby, even though I love
Miles and Sinners.
Um, but I think that this isgonna be another wins for
Sinners.

SPEAKER_02 (01:33:19):
Um I I prefer Miles and I think that Miles is gonna
win.

SPEAKER_01 (01:33:25):
Okay.
Uh for comedy film, you know,which is not a bad category in
terms of their nominees, butit's a ridiculous category.

SPEAKER_02 (01:33:33):
Which is I yeah, I was gonna say when we talked
about it, like this is probablyone of their most genuine
categories of the ceremony.

SPEAKER_01 (01:33:39):
Yeah, um, I feel like we're so snarky when we're
talking about the critics'choice.
This is kind of like a uh alittle uh uh snark section of
the show, but anyway, for bestcomedy, again, it's a good group
of nominees.
Um, I'd say that the win isbetween the naked gun and
splitzville.
Um, I think a lot of people onGold Derby at least are

(01:34:01):
predicting it's gonna be thenaked gun, but I don't know.
I think I'm gonna go on a on alimb and say that it's
splitzville.

SPEAKER_02 (01:34:07):
I am actually gonna go ahead and say the
controversial thing.
I don't think the naked gunshould win.
Number one, neither do I.
It's not a bad movie, it's justnowhere near as funny as the
originals, and it's nowhere nearas good as it should be.
I think it's just okay.
It's you know, it's not even thebest spoof we saw this year.
Um, I'm actually gonna go aheadand say the winner is going to

(01:34:27):
go to friendship.

SPEAKER_01 (01:34:28):
You think so?

SPEAKER_02 (01:34:29):
Friendship is gonna win here.
I can see that, especially sincehe's having a moment.
He is having a moment, and Idon't know if it's gonna be
there, but I think they want togive it to him.

SPEAKER_01 (01:34:39):
Um, he's hilarious.
I love it.
Um animated feature.
I think that's an obvious one.
It'll be K-pop Demon Hunters.
Uh foreign film.
I think that's a good thing.
It was just an accident.
Weirdly enough, I think thefavorite here is clearly it was
just an accident, and I think itwill win, but it just goes to
show the phonetic.

(01:34:59):
But nobody saw it.
It just goes to show thephoniness of this because this
is a film that couldn't evenmuster a best picture or best
director nomination, despite itbeing a favorite, and it's going
to win this category simplybecause it's the favorite to win
this category.

SPEAKER_02 (01:35:12):
Um, and again, I will say that why the hell isn't
sentimental value in thiscategory?
What the hell is going on?
How does that make any sense atall?
What the hell is going on here?
Um, yeah, I guess the win has tobe it was just an accident
because they disqualifiedsentimental value.

SPEAKER_01 (01:35:27):
Yeah.
Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 (01:35:28):
Um uh for special.

SPEAKER_01 (01:35:28):
But for no other choice, so I guess it might be.
Possibly, like I said, you know,somehow it makes sense for them
to snub it was just an accidentfor picture director, but
definitely give it the win forfour and film.
Um cinematography, I thinkthat's an easy one.
That's Sinners.
I think that's also the Oscarwinner.
Um costume design.
I think that might be a literal,a little interesting.
I think Wicked has a chance ofwinning this category, as does

(01:35:51):
Sinners.
But I'm gonna say thatFrankenstein is the winner here.
I like that call.
I like that call.
Right.
Uh for best editing.
Um, I'm gonna say that the thatone battle after another wins
this award.
You know, the sheer magnitude ofhaving this, you know, uh this
uh tremendous scope and havingit feel like you know, whiz by

(01:36:12):
you is something that I think isgonna attract them.
Um, I think it's uh I think it'sa dark horse contender for the
Oscar as well.
Um, so I'm gonna go with onebattle for editing.
Agreed.
Uh for hair and makeup, um, I'mgonna say that that's a very
easy one as well for the Oscars.
That's Frankenstein.
Distant second would besomething like weapons, I think.
Would have some fans, butFrankenstein is it.

(01:36:36):
Uh for best score, I thinkthat's another easy one for
Sinners.
Yeah, Sinners should walk out,possibly having the most wins,
even if one battle.
With the best picture win, yeah.
Yeah, even if one battle ends upwinning picture director and
screenplay.
Uh, for best song, I thinkthat's gonna be K-pop demon
hunters, even though I think youknow, over the last few days I'm
coming I've come around to thispossibility that K-pop loses the

(01:36:58):
best original song category toSinners for the song that Miles
Kanjan sings.
I lied to you.
Um, but at least here I thinkK-pop is safe to win.

SPEAKER_02 (01:37:08):
Um, I don't know.
I think I gotta disagree.
I think Sinners should win here.
Interesting.
I think so.
And I think something that helpsis that um at least in this
category, none of the songsdoubled up, so I think they have
a better shot.
And so I think if everyone sortof says Sinners had the best
soundtrack of the year, then itshould win here.

SPEAKER_01 (01:37:26):
For production design, I'm gonna go ahead and
say again that Frankensteinpulls it out, pulls a win.

SPEAKER_02 (01:37:32):
Makes sense.
Watch out for Sinners, but makessense, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 (01:37:34):
Yeah, um for sound design, this might be
interesting.
If they were cool, they mightgive it to something like
Surratt.
They won't, though.
So I'm gonna say they're gonnago with the most obvious pick,
and that's F1.

SPEAKER_02 (01:37:47):
Listen, I cannot wait to talk about this film
further, but I think Surratt isthe Cinderella story of the
year, and I'm here for it.
Me too.
Um, that being said, I thinkit's gonna go to F1 because they
think it's gonna benon-inference Oscar.
Um, and it may very well be, butwatch out for Surratt because
that'll be one hell of a win.

SPEAKER_01 (01:38:07):
Uh for stunt design, which I think the Academy is
close to, I believe, uh having astunt category next year.
So they're getting ahead of it.
I think isn't this the firstyear they have a stunt design
category or no?
At the critic's choice?
Yeah, possibly not sure.
Don't quote me.
Uh, but uh, I'm actually gonnasay the Mission Impossible.
I think that's the favorite.
I think that's that's that'll bethe prevailing winner.
I think they're hoping for atake it for Tom Cruise, is what

(01:38:28):
they're hoping for.
Yeah, I agree.
And then finally, for bestvisual effects.
G I really wonder who's gonnawin this category.
Nobody saw it.

SPEAKER_02 (01:38:36):
It was only good enough to get one nomination
based on its trailers.
Right.
Um, but it'll win.
It'll win that category based onits trailers again.

SPEAKER_01 (01:38:44):
Right.
Uh, and that's Adam.
Avatar Fire and Ash.
Yeah.
And finally, for the lastportion of the show, we're going
to preview who we think aregoing to win, which films we
think are going to win theNational Society of Film Critics
Association.
That I believe will be the 3rdof January, and it'll be right
before, I believe, the CriticsChoice Awards, which are on the
fourth.

(01:39:04):
Um, it's always really cool.
You know, we it's always nice tosee who the top three uh critics
groups, which are LA, New York,and National National Society
Film Critics, who they give itto.
Yeah.
But there is overlap.
So the National Society filmcritics is made up of members
who are both part of the LA filmcritics and the New York Film
Critics Circle.

(01:39:25):
So you'll oftentimes see a lotof the same uh names pop up
here.
Yeah, they're pooling from thesame number of contenders kind
of thing.
Exactly.
Um, so there's just a lot ofmembers uh in this group that
showed up in LA and New York.

SPEAKER_02 (01:39:39):
Although I will say it's always kind of fun because
like I remember in 2022, um,when Jafar Panahi's film No
Bears was listed here for abunch of awards, it was not
listed at either LA or New York.

SPEAKER_01 (01:39:50):
And so sometimes they do something cool like
Yeah, I think sometimes if theysee I do think these are critics
who see kind of who's getting alot of love.
And who isn't?
And if there's a contender thatthey want to push and you know
sh you know uh put a little bitof the spotlight on, they'll try
to do that.

SPEAKER_02 (01:40:08):
100% they can absolutely be reactionary.
There was one great year wherethey um gave the big wins to
inside Lewin Davis as one lastditch effort to give it a little
bit of momentum because like somany of the bigger sort of um
critical wars like left it off.
So yeah, they absolutely couldbe reactionary.

SPEAKER_01 (01:40:25):
Right.
And um I expect this shit to bea year where a like a strong
group of uh like five or sixfilms kind of take the majority
of um among them are severalforeign films like Surratt and
It Was Just an Accident and theAgent and No Other Choice, One
Battle.
So, you know, five or six ofthese films I think will get the

(01:40:48):
majority of the mentions.
So let's start with BestPicture.
I think it'll be uh a sweep andone battle after another we'll
win all three, and we'll winbest picture here as well.
Um, the number two that we'repredicting is Jafar Panahi does
really well here.
So we're predicting it was justan accident.
Watch out that possibly theywant to go their own way because

(01:41:09):
they see that one battle isdoing so well, it doesn't need
the help, and they give the bestpicture win to it was just an
accident.
That could definitely happen.
Possibly, yeah.
Um, and our number three pick isthe secret agent.
So these, if you're not familiarwith these, these have a number
one, a number two, and a number,a number three, and they're
based on rounds of votings.
Yeah.
So whoever accumulates the mostpoints is number one, second

(01:41:31):
most, number two, third most,number three.
Okay, for best director, um wehave uh PTA winning for one
battle.
At number one, our number two isJafar Ponahe, for which it's an
accident.
Again, they could switch forbest picture.
And on number three, we actuallyare gonna say it's Oliver Oliver
Lax for Surratt.
Yeah.

(01:41:52):
Um, because again, we do expectSurratt to do well here.
Um for best actress, right nowwe're thinking that Rose Byrne
is gonna sweep and get allthree.
She should.
She needs to.
If I for if I had legs that kickyou.
However, again, don't take thatas a for sure thing because just
last year Marion Jeffes did thatand still wasn't able to get in.

(01:42:12):
Put Rose Byrne's campaign, likeno days off.
Talk about like a no days offcampaign.
Um, I wouldn't be shocked if ournumber two pick, which is Jesse
Buckley for Hamnet, has enoughpassion to get that number one
spot.
Um, regardless of how somecritics might feel about the
movie.
There are several critics thatdo uh quite like it and and love
this film, and this would be oneof the few places to spotlight

(01:42:34):
it.
So don't be surprised if sheends up winning this.
Um, but right now we're gonnasay Rose number one, Jesse
Buckley number two, and a numberthree, interestingly enough, I
think is gonna be a tie betweenuh Renata Reines for Sentimental
Value and Ava Victor for SorryBaby.

SPEAKER_02 (01:42:50):
I really feel like Ava Victor has a really good
shot here.
Right.

SPEAKER_01 (01:42:52):
So do I.
I feel good about Ava Victor.
I'm a little bit less sure aboutRenata because she placed for
Worst Person in the World anumber two in 2021.
Maybe they feel like you knowthey don't need to place her
again.
We'll see.
For Best Actor, uh, I believethat it will be the winner for
the New York film critic circle,Wagner Mora, who prevails here
for the secret agent.
The number two choice, I think,will be Lee Byeongun for No

(01:43:15):
Other Choice, who's amazing inhis film, and it'll be one of
the ways that they can spotlightthat movie.
And the number three, I think,will be Ethan Hawk for Blue
Moon, um, who he won this award,I believe, in 2018 for First
Reformed.

SPEAKER_02 (01:43:27):
You know what?
I'm not gonna lie, like we'rekeeping him off, and you know,
it's a choice to keep Chalametoff for Marty Supreme, but what
if this awards body isreactionary and gives the a
bunch of awards to MartySupreme?

SPEAKER_01 (01:43:42):
It could happen.
Recency bias can happen as well.
It could happen.
I would watch off for more.
Someone else I'd watch off foris someone like uh Leo DiCaprio
for one battle.
You know, they might feel likethey want to spotlight that
performance um because uh thatfilm is gonna do so well and he
hasn't won any of the the bigones yet.
Oh, that's his last chance.

(01:44:03):
We'll see.
Uh for supporting actress, it'skind of interesting.
We're gonna predict, and as wementioned earlier in the show,
you know, this will be one ofthe first kind of uh reveals as
to uh possibly our prediction isour possibly one of the first
reveals of Woone Mosaku'sstrength, and that she will win
the supporting actress awardhere for Sinners.
So we're predicting her atnumber one, Tayana Taylor at

(01:44:26):
number two, and Amy Madigan atnumber three.
Technically, it would make sensefor this award to go to either
Tayana or Amy, and they've kindof split most of the awards, but
we think that's gonna be Woon MiMosaku.
And like I said, watch offer tobe the eventual winner,
possibly, for the Oscar.

SPEAKER_02 (01:44:40):
I mean, speaking of Leo, I will say Regina Hall did
not win this award for supportthe girls.
She didn't, but she placed.
She did place, but she has notwon yet.
Right.
So just keep an eye on that.

SPEAKER_01 (01:44:51):
Right.
Um, supporting actor, uh, wethink Benisio will win.
We believe that Stan Skarsgardwill be number two.
Um, interestingly enough,Benicio is the New York winner.
Uh, Stellan is the LA winner,and the number three spot we're
gonna go with Jacob Alordi forFrankenstein.
Uh, watch out for possiblyAlexander Skarsgard for Pillion,

(01:45:13):
Darroy Lindell for Cinners,possibly, even though I think he
won, I believe, uh for uh theFive Bloods.
Andrew Scott.
Uh Andrew Scott for Blue Moon,who you know I think is great in
that movie.
And but he won recently in thisthis uh this trip as well uh for
um uh strangers all of usstrangers, yeah.

(01:45:33):
One of the best performancesthat year.
Um for best screenplay, we'repredicting that this will be at
least one win has to go to JafarPanahi.
It should.
Yeah, and we think that will beit was just an accident, the
winner for screenplay.
The number two, we're predictingPTA for one battle, and number
three, we're predicting AvaVictor again for sorry, baby.
Yeah, um, other people to watchout for, no other choice might

(01:45:54):
might pop up here.
Train dreams might pop up here.
Secret agent's not bad.
Uh, secret agent might pop uphere.
Blue moon might pop up here,actually.
I think I wouldn't be shocked atthat.
For cinematography, we're goingwith our win predicted winner,
Sinners, our number two spot,train dreams, and our number
three spot Surrat.

SPEAKER_02 (01:46:11):
I could see Train Dreams and Sinners swapping the
win here, but I'll say also likeSecret Agent, maybe placing
here.
Maybe I would love that.
I would love that.

SPEAKER_01 (01:46:20):
I would love that.
Um, for documentary, we believeit will follow suit as New York
NLA and be My UndesirableFriends Part One, Last Air in
Moscow.
Um, number two, we think will beThe Perfect Neighbor, which has
been doing well at theprecursors.
And the number three, right, andthe number three will be put
your soul in your hand and walk.
Yeah, which also can happen forthe Gotham.

(01:46:40):
I think so.
And for foreign language film,the final award, we believe it
will go to it was just anaccident for Jafar Panahi, um,
the number two spot, The SecretAgent, and the number three spot
Surrat.

SPEAKER_02 (01:46:52):
I think the thing to sort of watch out for here and
sort of like the asterisk andwhat we're saying is I do not it
was just an accident can't winboth.
It can't win picture and foreignfilm.
And so right now we're sayingit'll win foreign film and PTA
will score best picture.
Right.
If they do decide to give itbest picture to it was just an
accident, look for them to giveit to another title foreign
film, and there's where secretagent.

(01:47:14):
Or man, if Surratt has a dayhere, oh, that's totally gonna
that's totally gonna shake therace.

SPEAKER_01 (01:47:19):
Yeah, well, I would love that.
Um, and uh they also have likean experimental war, maybe the
documentary um uh After News ofSolitude, I thought about maybe
Black News Terms and Conditions,something like that.
Um, and anyway, so it'll be coolto see what happens there on the
third.
And uh I think that's mostly itfor this episode.

SPEAKER_02 (01:47:41):
Oh, that's great.
I mean, well, I do want to saythat this will probably be our
last episode of the year.
Um, so we'll resume on theAcademy Anonymous podcast uh
2026, and we'll have uh a bunchof results to go over and a
bunch of award ceremonies in theoffing.
And I think what Oscarnominations are I think end of
January, right?

(01:48:01):
Early February.
We'll confirm that.
Um, in the meantime, definitelycheck out our predictions on our
website, frames and flicker.com.
Um, keep up with us on on onTwitter at Academy Anon.
We'll try to um tweet throughthe ceremonies.
Um, and yeah, I think thatcovers everything for this
episode.

SPEAKER_01 (01:48:18):
Yeah, for just really quick our predictions um
will be since all these uhprecursors are coming out, you
know, you should see us beingupdating it, you know, daily
with uh new precursors that comeout and whatnot.
So look out for that.

SPEAKER_02 (01:48:30):
All right.
Well, we want to wish everyone ahappy holiday and a very safe
new year and a very happy newyear um with your loved ones.
Uh, thank you for listening andthank you for spending uh
portion of your 2025 with us.

SPEAKER_01 (01:48:43):
Yeah, we really appreciate it.
And uh we'll see you guys backhere next year.
Absolutely.
Look forward to it.
Stick with us, and it's been apleasure.

SPEAKER_02 (01:48:52):
If you've been enjoying the Academy Anonymous
podcast and want to support thework we're doing, there's a
voluntary support link in theshow notes.
Totally optional.
Just a way to help us keep thepodcast going.
Thank you for listening.

SPEAKER_01 (01:49:06):
The music on this episode, entitled Cool Cats, was
graciously provided by KevinMcLeod and Incompitech.com.
Licensed under Creative Commonsby attribution three point zero.
HTTP calling forward slashforward slash Creative

(01:49:27):
Commons.org forward slashlicenses forward slash by
forward slash three point zero.

SPEAKER_02 (01:49:36):
Disclaimer The Academy Anonymous Podcast is in
no way affiliated or endorsed bythe Academy of Motion Picture
Arts and Sciences.

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