Oscars 2024-2025 Season; Recapping BAFTA/SAG/Indie Spirit Winners; Demi Moore In Serious Trouble; "Conclave" Now The Safer Choice?

On this episode of Academy Anonymous:

• Taking a look at the surprise wins at the Bafta/SAG awards, and what they mean for the race
• Why Demi Moore’s BAFTA loss is a huge RED FLAG
• Can Timothée Chalamet really beat Adrien Brody for that Oscar?
• Discussing the momentum shift towards CONCLAVE, and why it may derail ANORA

Episode Transcript

Jules (00:13):
Hey, welcome back to Academy Anonymous.
This is Jules and I'm Joseph,and on this episode we're going
to be retracking what happenedthe last several days.
A lot has happened.
Since last we talked, we hadthe BAFTA winners come out.
And just this past weekend wehad the SAG winners come out as
well as the winners from theIndependent Spirit Awards, and

(00:36):
it's countdown time.
We have a week left for theOscar winners, which is this
coming Sunday.
Look for our final predictions.
They're going to be up byFriday, if not sooner.
We'll be getting to that postthis episode, but for now we're
going to go through whathappened at the BAFTAs, what
happened at the IndependentSpirit Awards, what happened at
the SAGs, what we see sort oftranspiring so far.

Joseph (01:00):
Yeah, I mean those are all some pretty important events
.
I'm thinking especially thingslike the BAFTA and the Screen
Actors Guild Award have a lot ofcrossover for the Academy, so
they could be very telling.
Yes, let's start by saying thatvoting is over.
Yes, you know you're not goingto be able to see that and then

(01:23):
change your vote.

Jules (01:24):
The voting has been cast already by that time the Screen
Actors Guild Awards aired.

Joseph (01:29):
I don't think that's the case for the BAFTAs.
I think voters were able to seethe BAFTAs before casting their
votes, if they so chose.
And I guess, before we getstarted, let's also say that the
momentum a few weeks ago hadsort of shifted, correct?
Yes, you know, after the nora'simplosion towards anora right

(01:52):
exactly.
Anora seemed like the frontrunner.
It had a critics choice win forbest picture.
It had a director's guild winfor best director and a
producer's guild win for bestpicture.

Jules (02:02):
Right think a little bit later it would win the Writers
Guild?
I believe I will say that theshift has been towards Conclave.
However, you and I and we'llget to this when we talk about
the BAFTAs you and I werepredicting that the Conclave was
going to win the BAFTA.
I'm not exactly 100% sure whymost people thought that it
wouldn't win the BAFTA for BestFilm.

(02:23):
That seemed like the obviouspick to win the BAFTA the most
nominated BAFTA film this year.
They like Edward Berger and sothat was a little bit apparent
to us.
I don't think it was asapparent to everybody, and so
people were sort of surprisedsome people that Conclave walked
out with the win at the BAFTAsand that that itself represented

(02:44):
a little bit of a shift in therace away from a Nora into a
other contender like Conclave.
However, I would say that whatreally has shifted, the shift
towards Conclave, has been theSAG win for Conclave, because I
was expecting you and I wereexpecting the BAFTA win.
I wasn't 100% sure that it wasgoing to win the sag ensemble

(03:04):
award and so now when we havethe bafta winner for best
picture being conclave, alongwith the sag ensemble when being
conclave as opposed to a movielike onora, then I think we can
justify a legitimate shiftexactly towards conclave,
exactly.

Joseph (03:20):
I think that's really well said.
You know, onora, onora trouncedAmelia Perez with what was an
amazing weekend a few weeks ago,but over these past two
weekends the momentum hassolidified behind Conclave a
little bit.
We had sort of, I think, maybebrought up this idea in our last
podcast that if there was onefilm that could possibly

(03:43):
challenge Onora down the line,it would be Conclave, and so it
certainly looks like it's atleast running in second now.
But let's start breaking itdown and talk about what we're
seeing.

Jules (03:54):
Right, I will say something interesting and we'll
be talking about this is that inthis shift that has made the
race seem like it's a two-headedrace, with Onora and Conclave
being the most possible winnersfor the Academy Award for Best
Picture, there's somethinginteresting, I think, in that

(04:16):
Onora represents a sort ofconsensus pick for a certain
group of people because, aswe've been going through in some
of our episodes, it checks theright boxes.
For a lot of people it'saccessible enough to a point.
If you don't like the firsthalf of the film because it's a
little racy for you, you'regoing to like the second half,
you're going to laugh and you'regoing to be moved by that
beautiful ending.

(04:36):
However, maybe there'ssomething about Onora in that
first half, in, you know, sortof its sort of daring nature,
that some people feel morecomfortable having something
like Conclave be a consensuspick.
So in a way, we have the battleof the two kinds of consensus
picks.
You know, some people are goingto be more comfortable having

(04:59):
that be a Nora and some peoplewho are less comfortable with a
Nora and are more comfortablewith a safer pick like Conclave
being the quote-unquoteconsensus pick.

Joseph (05:07):
Right, I think, if you ask me, it's going to break down
into what kind of academy we'regoing to get this year.
We're going to get a Coda.
Academy, a Green Book Academyin which case we're going to
have a Conclave.

Jules (05:18):
Best Picture win.
That's exactly what I mean?

Joseph (05:20):
Or are we going to have a Parasite Moonlight Academy, in
which case we're going to havean Enora Best Picture win It'll
be interesting to see whathappens, right?

Jules (05:28):
That's exactly my point, that's exactly what I wanted to
say, and so I find that sort ofdevelopment interesting, right?
And so we'll go first with theBAFTA nomination, or the BAFTA
winner.
Excuse me, and there were a fewwinners that were surprising to
me, not including the BestPicture winner, and there were a
few winners that weresurprising to me not including
the Best Picture winner.
Yeah, what stood out to you?

(05:48):
Okay, so one of the firstthings that stood out to me was
the and I think it stood out toseveral people was the win in
original screenplay for A RealPain.
I certainly thought that thatwas Anora's for the taking.
Even if Anora didn't win BestPicture, it was going to win
something like screenplay.
Even if Onora didn't win BestPicture, it was going to win
something like screenplay.
To see that A Real Pain was theeventual winner certainly makes

(06:11):
me pause, in that you know whywouldn't Onora win that award?
If it's, you know, hasbasically Onora's name engraved
on it.
I do think Onora will walk outwith the.
Well, we'll get to that.
I just find that interesting,think that that is could be
somewhat telling.
It could be that there werefans for anora and there were

(06:33):
fans for the substance, which isthe other film that I think
people have to be we've beentalking about it, I have to be
sort of aware of in thatcategory and they sort of ate at
each other's votes a little bit, and that allowed for a movie
like A Real Pain to come through, or it could also be that A
Real Pain is accessible, it'sliked.
It's certainly a very beautifulfilm.

(06:54):
It's easy to like that film.
In a way it's sort of easybreezy and still very poignant,
and so that's a film that Ithink will appeal to a large
base.
And if anything, that win makesit clear to me that A real pain
won't go empty-handed on AcademyAwards night.
And it also makes it glaringlyapparent to me that our initial
sort of warning that EdwardNorton could trounce someone

(07:17):
like Kieran Culkin for the winfor supporting actor, given that
it's his fourth nomination andhe has no uh, he has no win and
a complete unknown you wouldthink should win something.
Um, it makes it so that I thinkthat's very unlikely and a real
pain has to walk out withsomething.
And seeing as a real pain hasstiff competition in the

(07:37):
original screenplay categorybecause of an aura and the
substance it makes the real ofreal pains win really, at least
supporting actor.
So that made it clear to methat Kieran Culkin is definitely
winning supporting actor.
That was clear to me before hejust won the SAG.
We'll get to that in a minute.
Now it's even more clear.
But after that win in theBAFTAs I think it was becoming

(07:58):
apparent to me that a real painhas to win.
Supporting actor for KieranCulkin.

Joseph (08:02):
Yeah, I agree, pain has to win.
Supporting actor for karencolgan.
Yeah, I agree, I think we can'toverstate the idea that a real
pain was a movie that, I believe, only made it into two bafta
long lists.
It's only two top 10 baftas inamong several categories.
It would go on to be nominatedfor both those categories right
supporting actor and originalscreenplay but then to win those

(08:26):
two categories, I think speaksto how popular the film is.
Maybe enough people just didnot see it, with enough time for
it to make that best picturetop 10 you and I had said that
you know it's been.
We couldn't really find anacting winner that was also a
screenplay nominee, let alone awinner, a possible winner.

(08:49):
That was not a Best Picturemovie and so that a real pain
missing Best Picture and gettingsort of snubbed for something
like I'm Still here or somethinglike Nickel Boys sort of
spelled that it was a movie thatwas sort of an also-ran and not
going to win any awards.

Jules (09:07):
Right but.

Joseph (09:08):
I think that both those wins certainly, as you said,
signify that it won't goempty-handed, and probably the
best place is supporting actorKieran Culkin, where he's far
ahead.
But I also think it speaks toan Onora problem.
You know, onora was not apopular choice at the BAFTA at
all.

(09:28):
And you would think this is theaward that it has sort of
sealed up.
But you know it has now lostthe critics' choice, which could
be interesting to someone likethe Substance, corley Fargeau.
It's now lost the BAFTA to areal pain.
It's a troubling pattern and theproblem is that I'm not sure I
can see Sean Baker.

(09:49):
I think it's difficult toimagine Sean Baker winning two
or three in the same year.
So if some people arepredicting picture director
writer, that's more thanChristopher Nolan won last year,
right For.

Jules (10:01):
Oppenheimer Right.

Joseph (10:02):
You know he would still lose screenplay to american
fiction and he didn't have to,you know, lose that category.
But it was very evident thatthey thought, you know, win for
producing the film and directingthe film was enough.

Jules (10:13):
And so maybe there's this idea that sean baker will win
an award or two, but he hedoesn't necessarily have to win
three right, I think that'sexactly and I I think this
pattern again is spelling someserious trouble for Onora in
that screenplay category, whichis odd considering that it's
such a favorite for a BestPicture win.

(10:35):
But certainly you know it'sspelling some trouble and I
would just want to clarify for amoment.
You know, when we say that it'svery odd to have you know an
actor win, uh, an acting awardand have that film also be
nominated in the screenplaycategory and not have that be,
not have that film show up in abest picture nomination we're

(10:57):
referring to, you know, a spotwith 10 spots yeah and expand
exactly so.
Kate blanchett won for bluejasmine.
Thataffin was nominated fororiginal screenplay.
That did not get nine for bestpicture, but it was not a year
of 10 and in all likelihood ifthey had to fill out uh last
spot that year and most likelywould have been blue jasmine
yeah, mathematically it wouldhave made sense for it to be

(11:18):
blue jasmine it would have madeperfect sense.
So in a year of 10, to not havefound room for a real pain and
have that be the supportingactor winner seemed odd.
But after bafta it's clearkieran colkin is winning
supporting actor.
Yeah, um, a real pain has towork out with something, and do
not underestimate a real painfor original screenplay.

(11:39):
The uh new introduction to areal pain into this quandary of
the substance versus a Noramakes this one of the hardest
categories, I think, to predictfor the Oscars.
Is it going to be the substance, is it going to be a Nora, or
is it going to be a real pain?

Joseph (11:53):
and going back to that original screenplay win for a
real pain.
You know, I think there'ssomething about the idea here
that between the substance, aNora and a real pain, a real
pain sort of sits in this verycomfortable spot right.
It's certainly not asconfrontational or edgy or

(12:14):
possibly low brow as a Nora orthe substance, and so maybe
that's where it's going to sortof try to angle itself for a win
.

Jules (12:23):
Right, and so that's certainly a category to look out
, for I'm still not 100% surewhat's going to happen there.
Another category that we cantalk about is what do you think?

Joseph (12:38):
Well, I mean, let's quickly talk about animated
feature.
You know we saw British royalty, royalty ardman win this award
and you know, after the annieawards, which is the animation
guilds, the wild robotessentially swept and won the
most awards that night,including best animated feature.

(12:58):
It seemed like the wild robotwas really getting a lot of sort
of wind in its sail andpossibly, you know, sort of
usurping flow after that reallybig win at the golden globes.
This win for wallace and gromitat the baptists, I don't think
we should take too likely.
They're not an organizationthat is always going to feel

(13:21):
compelled to give it to theBritish talent.
There's been plenty of timeswhere Aardman has been up for
the award and didn't win it.
Now I'm not trying to say thatAardman is in a position to win
this award, but what I'm tryingto say is I think that what may
end up happening here is thatthere is just enough love for

(13:44):
something like wallace andgromit.
That flow just does not getenough of the votes that it
needs to win, and so I thinkbafta has done a really good job
of matching animated featurewins along with the oscar winner
for animated feature.
They overlap a good deal of thetime.

(14:05):
Undoubtedly, you know there'sprobably some bias here when
Wallace and Gromit wins both youknow, and is also up for
British film, but I think thisis a bad sign for Flo.
You know, I think Flo might endup being something like Flea
right, which was nominatedseveral times and didn't win an
award.
And so I think that that's maybethe sort of sense I'm getting

(14:27):
here when I see that Flo doesnot manage to win one of the
awards it's up for and certainlythe Wild Robot didn't win any
award either but because it'sthe most successful from a box
office point of view other thanInside Out 2, which is a sequel.
It doesn't need that support.
But imagine if Flo had won here.

(14:50):
It would have made it socompetitive.
But because that wasn't thecase, I'm afraid that Flo is
just not going to have the votes.
And the wild robot?
It was a win for Wallace andGromit, but it was also sort of
a win for the Wild Robot.

Jules (15:06):
I think that's exactly.
I think that's a really goodpoint.
I think it's significant thatFlo couldn't manage a win in
this category last year.
The Boy and the Heron won hereand that was one of the first
signs that that was going to winat the Academy Awards.
With the foreign appeal thatFlo has, it should have done

(15:27):
well here.
There could be, as you said,some sort of bias towards
Wallace and Gromit, thehomegrown sort of animation from
UK, and I agree with you.
I think it's a possiblytroubling sign for flow and that

(15:49):
that opens up an even biggerspace for a movie like the Wild
Robot to do well here.

Joseph (15:54):
Possibly a bigger lead here for A Wild Robot.
I think the other category totalk about is also Well.

Jules (15:59):
I'd like to mention, along with these sort of quote,
unquote, ghettoized categories,documentary, exactly exactly
that's where I was going, yeah,and I think that was a very
interesting win, unexpected andpossibly telling and troubling
for um, for the, for thefavorite, which is no other land
, the fact that no other landlost here and a loss to a film

(16:22):
that is not nominated for anacademy award superman, um,
doesn't happen often.
It does not happen often, uh,usually you know, as at least a
pattern has been, that the, thewinner at the uh baftas for
documentary, does well at theacademy as well, and here they
overlooked no other land and itcould possibly be indicating

(16:44):
that there's some hesitationwith regard to the political
nature, the political climatecurrently, that that could have
an effect as to that filmwinning Absolutely.

Joseph (16:55):
I think BAFTA has been on a streak here in terms of,
you know, calling the winner andeven when they haven't been on
a streak, most of the timeyou're going to find the winner
for the Academy Award somewhereamong these five nominees, and
that's only Black Box Diariesand no Other Land.
So no Other Land, the favorite,or the presumed favorite, still

(17:17):
has that going for it.
But the idea that they decidednot to give it to no Other Land
and instead gave it to supermancould be a red flag.
I will say, from the researchI've done, superman is a
co-production, so it does havesome, some support from the
british uh film industry andthat may have been a deciding

(17:38):
factor, but nonetheless I thinkthat even if that was a deciding
factor, it still doesn't getaway from the idea that no Other
Land is a vulnerablefrontrunner.

Jules (17:51):
Yeah, I agree 100%.
I think that we have to be onthe lookout for a surprise snub
there, for no Other Land.

Joseph (17:59):
Yeah.

Jules (18:00):
Next category that we should go to.
I just want to mention, forexample, that the Brutalist
winning original score I thinkis a pretty good coup for that
film because they've overlappedas of late very well with the
Academy.
That was a kind of strangecategory because, you know,
technically Conclave could winor we thought Conclave could

(18:22):
have won.

Joseph (18:22):
I thought Amelia Perez might have won Right.

Jules (18:24):
Conclave could have.
But I'm saying for the Academy.
Or we thought Conclave couldhave won.
I thought you mean that Perezmight have won.
Right, I'm saying for theAcademy.
We thought Conclave was anoption, we thought Emilia Perez
was an option, we thought theBrutalists was an option.
So it's a strange categorybecause more than one person
could easily win that category.
The BAFTA win for theBrutalists, I think, makes it
even more likely that theBrutalists will win that
category at the Oscars.
I think something it more more,even more likely that the
brutalist will win that categoryat the, at the Oscars.

Joseph (18:46):
I think you know something else we can sort of
talk about a little bit.
It's just the idea that despiteall the negative press and sort
of the downswing the movie isin, I mean the Perez still
managed to one to to win foreignlanguage film Right.
Um, and this is the same groupthat sort of called it last year
that between Past Lives and theZone of Interest, they opted

(19:07):
for the Zone of Interest.
You know, a movie like I'mStill here was nominated
alongside.
Emilia Perez, and they opted forEmilia Perez.
Undoubtedly, you know, afterthat Best Picture nomination
there's been some steam, for I'mStill here, but it looks like,
you know, emilia Perez hasn'tsort of given up that front
front runner position in theforeign language film race yet,
right.

Jules (19:27):
Yeah, and Emilio Perez, we're going to get to that this
week as we talk about our Oscarpredictions, but it's the most
nominated film this year, with13.
I know there's some people inyou know film Twitter and film
culture who want to see thatfilm get zero wins.
But I think that's veryunlikely and I think that film

(19:48):
is well positioned right now toat least win something like
Supporting Actress, song andForeign Film.

Joseph (19:53):
Right.

Jules (19:53):
Which would be 13 nominated film.
Nine for 13 awards, it getsthree, which is not so bad, you
know when you think about a filmlike Joker.
They got nine for 11, one, two.
You know.
For it to walk out with 3amidst this sort of chaos and
controversy, I think is prettygood Right.

Joseph (20:11):
I think the other category we can sort of talk
about for a minute is also asfar as below the line is Sound,
where Doom Part 2 did manage towin after being an extremely
unpopular Academy Award nomineein a bunch of categories.
Right after being an extremelyunpopular Academy Award nominee.
In a bunch of categories it wasmore popular at BAFTA than at
the Academy, which maybe meansthat we shouldn't be paying too
much attention here.

(20:31):
But I was certainly someone whothought that this would have
been an easy win for Wicked andthat this was sort of Wicked's
category to lose, so it'sinteresting to see Dune pick up
this award.
I think this is an extremelycompetitive category at the
Oscars between the two musicals,the biography of a musician,
and Dune.

(20:52):
which is this huge spectacle?
But Dune, having won this awardalready, I think makes it less
of a threat at the Oscars.
But that it won this BAFTA isno small thing.

Jules (21:02):
Right, I think that that category, as you were saying, is
very interesting.
Like original score, therecould be several winners that
you could see happening in thatcategory Um for um, not really
the wild robot at this moment,but I will say that I think I
wonder if we could see a win atthe Oscars for Dune part two,

(21:25):
considering that that film,again as you were saying,
performed so poorly.
I don't, I'm not sure that Isee a film that's nominated for
five um Oscar nominations, whichis a big downgrade from part
one, walking out with two Oscarsand I and I and I'm someone who
believes that it's pretty firmin the best as the best winner
for as the winner for um visualeffects yeah so it's kind of

(21:46):
hard to fathom that film winningtwo oscars sound and visual
effects and they want it wonthem both, part one at bafta and
, I'm sorry, the oscars.
So I I sort of wonder ifsomething's going to happen
where the sort of musical filmsdo, umicked Emilia Perez and A

(22:07):
Complete Unknown sort of eat ateach other a bit because they
all are so musically inclined,and that that's something that
could have happened at BAFTA andthat's why Dune walked out with
the sound category.
However, because I don't seethat happening at the Oscars,
it's still a mystery to me, in away, which musical film is
going to walk out on top.
Could it be a complete unknownand have that be the film's only

(22:28):
win?
A sound, uh, a sound win, itwould make sense.
So the film doesn't walk outempty handed.
Um, even though there's a,there's a possibility that it
can win another award.
Uh, given what happened at theSAGs and we'll get to that in a
minute Is it going to be anotherwin for Wicked, who can count
something like production designand costume design as pretty
confident wins?
Or is it going to be AmeliaParris and have you know, yet

(22:53):
another sort of music win, inthe sense that music is such an
integral part of the sound workin that movie?
So it's a little bit bit.
It's a strange category and it'salso one of those categories
where I'm not, I'm it's.
I can't really foretell rightnow who's going to win that
category you can see a lot ofpeople winning that category

(23:14):
potentially.

Joseph (23:15):
I mean, I will say at bafta dune, part two only be
wicked in the sense that theother films nominated are not
oscar nominees.
So blitz, gladiator 2 and thesubstance that's.
Other films nominated are notOscar nominees, so Blitz,
gladiator 2, and the Substance.

Jules (23:27):
That's a really good point, yeah.

Joseph (23:28):
So maybe it just shows that Wicked is weaker.

Jules (23:31):
Wicked is weaker than Dune, part 2.
And amongst themusical-inclined films, exactly.

Joseph (23:36):
But that Dune Part 2 may very well be a weaker choice or
a weaker film when you throw itagainst either Amelia Perez or
a complete unknown Right.
So I think that could besomething to watch, yeah.

Jules (23:49):
I think that's a good point.
That's a good point, all right.
Next, let's talk about one ofthe biggest wins of the night,
which was the win for MikeyMadison for best actress One of
Onora's.
You know, I don't even want twoawards, the other one being
casting, so it's the biggestaward that I won that night.
Actress, um, which was asurprise.

(24:09):
Uh, most people had pegged DemiMoore.
Um, considering the substancedid pretty well there.
I will say that I had, uh,mikey Madison as my spoiler.
Uh to uh, if it wasn't DemiMoore, it would be Mikey Madison
.
I believe you had your winnerbeing Demi and your spoiler
being Marianne Jean-Baptiste.

(24:29):
Well, maybe.
I think it was either her orCynthia Erivo Right, and so I
think the win for Mikey Madisonwas pretty big in that.
The most important thing toassess out of it is that it's
spelling trouble for Demi MooreExactly Demi Moore.

Joseph (24:44):
Exactly.

Jules (24:45):
Demi Moore should have won that category, and that is
your first sign, ladies andgentlemen, that Demi Moore is in
shaky ground for a best actresswin for the Substance.
I think Mikey Madison certainlypulls a lot of votes when it
comes is going to pull voteswhen it comes to the academy

(25:05):
awards.
She could certainly pull votesfrom someone like demi more, but
I find it more at leastinitially I found it more likely
that she would be someone thatwould pull votes from someone
like um fernanda torres for I'mstill here that the two of them
sort of possibly eat at eachother's votes, being the

(25:27):
alternative choice to Demi Moore.
So Demi Moore has, as KaibuKanon put it on Twitter the
other day, the Hollywood voteand if you're going to deviate
from the Hollywood vote, fromthe Hollywood narrative, then
you're going to pick eitherFernanda Taurus or Mikey Madison
.
Fernanda Taurus was obviouslynot nominated at the BAFTAs and
that allowed a win to occur forMikey Madison, but at the Oscars

(25:51):
, where they're both nominated,I initially saw it as a sign
that Mikey Madison could eat atvotes from Fernanda Torres and
that would hurt her frompossibly beating out Demi Moore.
However, upon more consideration, more recollection, even though
that's still a possibility, Ido think that it's probably more

(26:14):
so the case that it's a glaringsign that the Substance is just
not something that a broaderbase is going to feel should win
or can win Best Actress.
We talked about this from thevery beginning when we were
talking about the Substance,which has had an incredible run
and has broken already so manyboundaries.
So it's hard not to sort ofreally kind of root for the

(26:36):
boundaries it's breaking,regardless of how you feel about
the film.
But if an international baselike the british base, where
that film did well, demi morecan't win there and someone like
mikey madison wins over her, Ithink it's an indication that

(26:59):
even the foreign base is goingto have some trouble feeling
like they want to give the winto Demi Moore for the substance.
And that's a really big issuefor Demi Moore because she needs
not just the Hollywood vote,she needs a little bit of that
extra vote to make it through, Ithink, and so I think it's a

(27:20):
big problem for Demi Moore.

Joseph (27:21):
I think it certainly spells trouble.
Think it's a big problem forjimmy moore.
I think it certainly spellstrouble.
Um, it's a big red flag.
Let's put aside the argumentfor a second that mikey madison,
of all people, won thiscategory when the smart money
probably had her winning therising star award.
Um, shout out david johnson,who did win that award he gave

(27:45):
one of the best speeches of thenight and I look forward to his
next.
I look forward to watching hiswork in the years to come yeah
but anyway, people figured thatmikey would win there and
someone like demi would win bestactress.
Let's put aside the argumenthere that what we saw was the
result of maybe some votesplitting.
You know, know the passion forpossibly having Cynthia Erivo or

(28:06):
Marianne Jean-Baptiste be thefirst black actress to win a
BAFTA award, or the idea thatSaoirse Ronan is up for an award
has never won, and I thinkshe's by her fifth nomination.
Putting aside that argumentthat there's a vote split there,
there's just absolutely noreason why mikey madison would

(28:26):
win this award for a film thatvery clearly was just not a
super popular choice with baftaright, just casting and actors.
Now, between those two awards,it does seem that what the bafta
voters may have liked most ofall from the movie are the
performances, sure, but when youcalculate that idea that Demi

(28:52):
Moore, you know she's certainlythe Hollywood choice and she has
the narrative behind her of,you know, having all those years
in the industry.
But this is a Britishco-production, yeah, this is a
British co-production thatshowed up in a bunch of
categories probably would havebeen nine for British film had
it been eligible was probablyclose to picture.
When you factor in all thosethings, demi Moore should have

(29:12):
been able to sort of muster thiswin, and the fact that she
didn't I think you're right sortof says that the genre bias is
going to be very difficult forher to overcome.
And so while I think that thissort of showed that if Demi
Moore was competing againstMikey Madison for that Oscar she

(29:33):
should still feel verycomfortable, because Mikey
Madison is so new, is such abreakout, and because the film
stands a good chance to beawarded in other categories,
that it lost at bafta, it'sresonated more with, I think,
the american section of voters,you know, with those guild ones
at the producers guild, thedirectors guild.

(29:53):
But the problem is that at theacademy demi moore has to beat
fernando torres.
That's the big problem, if youask me right.
Is that fernanda torres?
Between the performance itself,the movie, the true story that
it's based on, between her beinga historical figure, between

(30:14):
all those things, demi mooreabsolutely needs every win that
she could get, and even then itwill be a challenge, and so for
to have her lose this award Ithink is massive Because she's
not in a sort of Brendan.
Frazier sort of position.
Right, brendan Frazier when heloses this award to Austin
Butler, right, she doesn't haveto beat Austin Butler, in the

(30:35):
sense that I don't think shereally has to beat Mikey Madison
too much.
But Brendan Fraser benefitedfrom not having another really
strong sort of film orperformance there.
If anything, you know, themovie to beat Brendan Fraser,
the performance to beat BrendanFraser, was Colin Farrell.
And so when Colin Farrell doesnot win the BAFTA like when Demi

(30:56):
Moore doesn't win the BAFTA forthe Substance you know and
Banshees again should be a moviethat the BAFTA voters should be
going crazy for.
When it doesn't do that, Ithink it sort of says that it's
a higher or a steeper mountainto climb than we had thought.
I think the hurdle issignificant.
I'm not sure that she'll beable to recover from it.

(31:20):
Maybe we'll see, but Idefinitely think it was sort of
to me a seismic win for MikeyMadison, and not so much again
for the argument of MikeyMadison winning, but the
argument for Demi Moore losing.

Jules (31:36):
Right, I will say just personally.
You know it's nice to seesomeone like Mikey Madison win,
because I'm a fan of thatperformance, but it was a shock,
it was an utter shock to notsee Demi Moore win.
That, despite me having Mikeyas my spoiler, I was more than
confident that it would be DemiMoore.
But I will say that I myselfhave never forgotten genre bias

(32:01):
with regard to Demi Moore.
If anything, I just thoughtwrongly possibly that the
Hollywood factor and theHollywood narrative and the sort
of Cinderella narrative, andyou know, there's something so
attractive and appealing aboutthat.
That's probably one of thehighlights of this awards season
Demi Moore's run for aneglected actress finally

(32:22):
getting her dues and her flowersfor a film as bold, as you know
, um the substance, or or and ifyou're not a big fan of the
substance, uh, I myself havesome issues with it it's still
so um, interesting and uh,fascinating to see that kind of
film break the ranks and make itall the way to where it's made
it.
Um, I will say I've neverforgotten about genre bias.

(32:44):
I just thought that that thosenarratives will pull her, would
pull her through to the very end.
A la, someone like sandrabullock in the blind side.
We mentioned that comparisonearlier on um.
But if anything, the win was areminder to me that the
hollywood narrative is just notenough, um, and I will say
something that is reallyaffecting demi more in this

(33:07):
particular scenario, on top ofit being genre bias, is that the
film itself has very littledialogue, um, and has a lot of
you know, sort of internalacting on demi more part.
She also shares so much of themovie with Margaret Qualley in a

(33:27):
way that sort of like they'rekind of co-leads in a way, and
so I think factors like that areonly hurting her case.
If you think about the film andyou try to isolate instances
that feel quote unquote, youknow, oscar-y, the Oscar moment,
the clip you're definitelygoing to play at the Academy

(33:50):
when it shows up for as anominee for best actress, it's
hard to think of a scene becausea lot of it is internal,
there's not a lot of dialogue,some of her more quote unquote
louder scenes, if we're going tocall it that, she's sort of
caked in makeup, um, and it'ssort of caked in makeup, right,
and it's sort of already thedisintegration of that character

(34:10):
, and so it's really a contenderwhere it's, it's so, outside
the mold of what they typicallynominate and certainly what they
award, that even something likepicking a clip is going to be,
you know, a little bit strangeRight.
And again those you know alittle bit uh strange Right, and
again those you know uh,periphery factors.
They're important.

(34:30):
There isn't a lot of dialoguein the movie.
There is no.
There is no big moment you knowOscar-y scene like the way that
they like Right, they like that.
Oh yeah, a lot more subtle.
It's a lot more nuanced, andnot nuanced in the way where,
you know, fernanda torres givesa beautifully nuanced
performance and I'm still here,but it's.
It's a showy kind of nuance,right.

(34:51):
Um, this is not that right so,if anything, I think that is
only further hurting her case,right as actors seeing the movie
and possibly being very takenor, you know, stirred, or you
know just fascinated or maybeeven repulsed by what the film
is doing as a whole thannecessarily taken with Demi

(35:12):
Moore's performance in it.

Joseph (35:14):
Right.

Jules (35:14):
In a way, some people are going to feel more captivated
by having her be a part of theproject and what that means, and
the symbolism, which can bevery potent, more than so.
You know them gravitatingtowards quote unquote the
loudness of the performance,because it's not a loud
performance at all.
So I think factors like thatare really hurting her as well.

Joseph (35:33):
If you put that alongside genre bias, I think
we're looking at a serious,serious, serious obstacle for
Dem more yeah, and again, I alsothink that she may just end up
being a victim of hercircumstances, because if in
fifth or in that fifth spot youhad angelina jolie or kate

(35:55):
winslet or pamela anderson, Ithink that she could maybe
survive this baptist snub with,with the, the main propeller
being this hollywood cinderella,you know, attractive narrative
you know, I think that the ideaof I want to give an award to
demi more for all her years inthe industry is
going to be able to overcome asecond win for winslet or jolie

(36:17):
for the work that they gave inthose particular movies.
But the problem is that whenyou put fernanda torres in there
for that particular movie andwith that context, it's going to
be like I said, she would needto bring her A game and put up
the fight of her life, and eventhen it is going to be extremely
tough.
And so without that BAFTA win,you're sort of going in there.

(36:40):
We'll say it in your B game.
You're like you got one handsort of tied behind your back,
right.

Jules (36:48):
I 100% agree.
I'll also say that we talkedabout it recently, this idea
that Sandra Bullock was a goodcomparison that we used, as I
mentioned, but in her year shebenefited from number one she
was playing a real person andthat's something, as we said,
that's sort of catnip for theAcademy.
Fernanda Torres is playing areal person and number two, her

(37:11):
competition.
So she was going against MerylStreep, who had already two
Oscars, helen Mirren, who had anOscar, and two actresses that
were not, unlike Mikey Madison,breakouts.
The first time they're beingcognizant of this, uh, talented
performer being taken with thisperformance, but because of
their newness that affects theirpossible win, and someone like

(37:31):
a megastar like sandra bullockwho's finally given her flowers,
that narrative pulls through.
But the blind side is not thesubstance exactly.
The blind side is much more inthe realm of things that are
that are going to be accessiblefor a broader base of the
academy, and it's not a filmthat you're going to see, or at
least a portion.
You know.
I think there are things thatare going to be accessible for a
broader base of the Academy andit's not a film that you're
going to see, or at least aportion.
I think there are things thatare very wrong with the Blind
Side, but a large portion is notgoing to see something

(37:53):
repulsive or going to feelrepulsed by that movie.
There might be a significantportion that's going to feel
that way about the substance andso, even though there's a
similarity between both of thosenarratives the Sandra Bullock
and the Demi Moore there'spivotal differences this case um
, it's unusual to have fouracting winners and not have a
real, uh, an actor playing areal life figure be amongst the

(38:32):
four acting winners, and sothat's something we're going to
talk about more as we get closerto our final predictions.
But this would be a place wherethey award an actor for playing
a real life figure in a verypolitically timely movie.
Um, with important politicalcontext, you know this, the best
actress category would be theplace for them to spotlight a

(38:52):
possible real person, possiblyin support in best actor, and
we'll get to that when we talkabout the sags, but we're
feeling that it's more likelyit's going to be in best actress
and that this bafta win isspelling.
The likelihood of thathappening is great, and so that
was, as you were saying, aseismic win for Mikey Madison.

Joseph (39:13):
Or a seismic loss for Demi Moore.
Yeah, I think that's well put.

Jules (39:17):
That's well put.
A seismic win.
Either a seismic win for Mikeyor a seismic loss for Demi.
The other category I thoughtwas interesting was best
director.
That category is absolutelyeverywhere.
Right, I will say I I do feelthat the category is firmly
between two directors.
In my opinion I don't know ifyou feel differently that's

(39:39):
either going to be the winner ofthe director's guild award
alongside the PGA Sean Baker,sean Baker, sean Baker or it's
going to be Brady Corbett, whonow has a BAFTA win and a Golden
Globe win.
I want to say, in thisparticular moment, I'm really
feeling Sean Baker winning this.
I think it's going to matterthat he has films that more

(40:00):
filmmakers have seen.
I think it's going to matterthat filmmakers feel that he's
been doing it longer than BradyCorbett and again, just the
knowability of his films for alarger section of the Academy
compared to Brady Corbett's, andso I think that's going to
factor in significantly at theAcademy.

(40:20):
But Brady Corbett, because ofthe nature of the film and you
know the impression that filmleaves and and and sort of, the
gargantuan task of the film, youknow, is certainly the biggest
competition for sean baker, um,and I think it's a paramount
reason why he walks out with awin and something like, uh, the

(40:41):
baftas and the Globes, andthere's certainly a very strong
possibility that the Academy,the voter base, is going to feel
.
Well, you know, the Brutalistwas just such a humongous task
and such a bold film and solarge in scope and scale that
you know I'm going to vote forit, even if I didn't like the

(41:03):
movie that much, which I thinkis a very important sort of
asterisk and I think is thebiggest threat to Brady Corbett
not winning, because I thinkonce voters at large see that
movie, there is going to be asignificant portion who are not
going to be crazy about it, justby the very sort of enigmatic
nature of the film, and so thatcould lead a significant number

(41:27):
of people to say well, you know,in terms of directing, brady
corbett stands out to me becauseof the monumental, uh task of
making this film.
However, I wasn't crazy aboutthis movie.
Um, where are voters gonna fall?
Are they gonna fall in?
You know, I wasn't crazy aboutit, but it just stands out so
much to me he gets my vote.
Or, yes, it was an enormousachievement from a director, but

(41:50):
I didn't like it that much, sohe doesn't get my vote.

Joseph (41:52):
I think that there are so many drawbacks to every
single nominee, including thosetwo front runners.
Again, I'm not sure how manyawards I can see Sean Baker
winning that night, but eventhen he's been working for a
long time, but the film is suchan intimate choice that voters
don't tend to make in thiscategory.

(42:13):
And brady corbett's movie is,you know jargon gargantuan
enough for voters to want toaward that for best director.
But he's so young and so earlyin his career that you can't
imagine that some voters aren'tgoing to have that in mind.
To me, you can sort of splitthe difference, and I haven't
dismissed the idea that someonewho's been working as long as
sean baker and who's made amovie that most people have

(42:38):
admired for how quote-unquotedifficult it was to pull off, is
jacques oriard, and so I thinkhe's somewhere in the middle.
There it's.
Some people are going to callit a giant swing of a movie like
, uh, like the brutalist, buthe's been working as long or
longer than Sean Baker, and so Ithink that those two elements

(42:59):
sort of keep him in this race.
I just think there's a lot ofdrawbacks to to both those other
contenders.
I don't see the sean bakerdirecting job, turning as many
heads as the the bang john hoone did for parasite.
I think there were more movingparts, um, more that's gonna
appeal, for example, to a sounddesigner or, uh, possibly a

(43:22):
visual effects artist, um, so Ithink, think that may end up
being a factor.
So we'll see what happens.
I think it's interesting thatBrady Corbett was able to win
there Again.
To me, the most interestingthing and we'll talk about this
as we talk about the lastcategory is just that Onora did
not have a very good night, andso you know, when you see

(43:43):
something like EverythingEverywhere All At Once, have a
poor night here, night right.
And so you know, you, when yousee something like everything
everywhere all at once, have apoor night here, you can still
sort of overcome that and have aa bunch of a huge night at the
oscars.
Is a nora, that movie, I don'tknow there's going to be some
people who are not going to beable to forget that a nora is a
film about a stripper andthey're not going to be able to

(44:04):
have that image erased fromfront of mind and that that's
going to affect how many votesit gets unfortunately.
But that leads us to the moreconventional film winning the
BAFTA Best Picture.
Finally getting that win forTessa Ross.
That was Conclave Best Picture,Best British Film, Best Film
Editing, right, Right, and BestAdapted Screenplay.

(44:26):
We know it should win at leastone of those awards.
Film editing does not look ascompetitive a category as other
years, so maybe it could winthat too.
Yeah, Again, just that ideathat Conclave.
Yes, it won here.
It should have won here.
At the same time.
I don't think Anora should havedone so poorly.

Jules (44:45):
Right, I think that's a really good point.
I'll just go back to BestDirector for a second.
I think something that helpsSean Baker edge out someone like
Brady Corbett and again we'lltalk about this more when we
make our final predictions isthat that second half of the
film is so crowd-pleasing.
You know that that can edge outa sort of enigmatic contender

(45:09):
like the Brutalist.
You know, even if it is a filmabout a stripper.
I think that hurts it.
I mean, that's something it'sgoing to have to contend more in
a category like best picturethan best director.
Um and so when you put thosetwo movies, you know, head to
head uh, anora and the BrutalistI think that's a factor that

(45:29):
could end up helping Anora beatsomething like the Brutalist,
alongside all the other thingswe've mentioned, the fact that
you know it gets into the spacethat's very comedic, humorous,
screwball, uh, crowd pleasing,and then that poignant ending,
um, ending.
Add to that the other factorswe mentioned.
I think that's something toconsider and to look out for.

(45:49):
But I 100% agree, conclaveshould have won this.
Onora should not have done aspoorly as it did, and that's
something that we're going tosee Again.
I don't think it represented ahuge shift in the race that
Conclave won.
That.
What did represent was the Sagavoice, which we'll get to see
again.
I don't think it represented ahuge shift in the race that
Conclave won.
That.
What did represent was the SagaAwards, which we'll get to in a
minute.

Joseph (46:10):
Right, and I'll do the research when we talk about our
final predictions, but I have tothink about the last film that
was able to win the Oscar forBest Director without having a
nomination below the line.
That was not film editing, soI'm thinking about something
like Spotlight, for example thatloses Best Director to Inari 2,

(46:33):
going back to Back of theRevenant.
That's a good point, thinkingabout Coda not even being
nominated for Best Director.
But the Best Director windidn't go to Drive my Car or
Licorice Pizza, it went to JaneCampion, and so I have to really
look at how many films that are, again, small enough and
intimate enough to win BestDirector without having those,

(46:55):
you know, some support below theline.
That isn't editing.
You know, parasite did havethat production design
nomination.

Jules (47:01):
Right right.

Joseph (47:02):
So I do wonder if that's going to be a factor here.

Jules (47:04):
I think that's a really good point.
I hadn't thought about that,but I think that's something
we're definitely going to haveto do the research before our
final predictions, but that'scertainly something to look at
and consider.
Tricky category.
Another very tricky category isBest Director.
Yeah, but we'll segue now intowhat just happened last night
which was the SAG.
Awards.

(47:25):
No surprise there that KieranCulkin won.
That just further solidifiesour point that we made earlier
Kieran Culkin is winning BestSupporting Actor.
The Edward Norton thing justdid not muster, it did not
conjure up it didn't materialize, so that's done.
Zoe Zaldana is going to winSupporting Actress.
I know people have thesefantasies about being somebody

(47:46):
else.
We've always seen as the onlypossible person that could beat
her was someone like um rosalinirosalini because of her career.
Given that the film is so small,the nomination is the um the
award in a way, which is absurd.
Um, you know, getting uh isabout getting her first
nomination at 72 years old, Ibelieve.

Joseph (48:07):
There's just no one else in the category that can really
sort of.

Jules (48:09):
I will say that, based on some of the articles that have
come out about, you know, thefamous anonymous Oscar ballot,
you know you would probablyconsider someone like Monica
Barbera having more strength,and that makes sense in a way.
That film was liked and she'splaying a real life figure.
She's playing Joan Baez, andmaybe it isn't Isabel Rossellini

(48:33):
who's a strong number two andit is Monica Barbaro.
And yet still the favorite isZoe Zaldana.
She will win the category.
That will be one of EmiliaPerez, if not Emilia Perez's
biggest win.
It will be supporting actressfor Zoe Zaldana.

Joseph (48:49):
Again, you give the same performance from Monica Barber
to an actor who's further alongin their career or not, on their
first nomination.

Jules (48:54):
Yeah, possibly.

Joseph (48:55):
And sure, maybe she can win, even with the limited
screen time, against someonelike Zoe Zaldana, who you could
argue is really a co-leader inher film.
But I think that, based on allthose anonymous ballot stuff
that comes out, the one thingthat comes to my mind, for all
those voters who do elect forMonica Barbaro to be the winner,

(49:15):
is again the idea that we'vealready hit upon that we'll talk
about further as we talk aboutSAGs and as we prepare our final
predictions is just that ideathat someone real is going to
win someone real should win anaward exactly 100.
So maybe it's joan bias.
It's very unlikely.
I still think you're right.
This is saldana's to lose and Ido not see her losing it yeah,

(49:37):
I 100 agree.

Jules (49:38):
So that's done the interesting things have.
Oh well, we'll talk before thetwo interesting ones.
Jimmy warren, demi more, wonthe sag.
That's a big deal.
I think it is a big deal, butit just further cements that she
has that quote-unquotehollywood vote.
She has, uh, she can count withthose voters.
She's still not going againstsomeone like fernanda torres in

(49:58):
that category um.
I'm really happy that she wonthat category um, even if she
might not be my personal pick.
I'm really happy that she wonthat category um, even if she
might not be my personal pick.
I'm really happy because, inthe event that she doesn't win
the Academy Award right, she canat least count herself as not
just an Oscar nominee but a SAGwinner, which is no small thing
yeah, hell of a run um andanother beautiful speech from

(50:19):
her.
We said we mentioned that lastnight yeah, that if somehow Demi
Moore manages a win, which,again, I will be so ecstatically
happy for her, despite notbeing my personal pick in the
category A big part of that willbe the speeches that she's done
, which have been really sincereand-.
A highlight really ExactlyHumble and really really lovely

(50:43):
and really just make you want tovote for her.

Joseph (50:46):
Exactly, and so.
If she wins.
You know that it's becausepeople were paying attention to
what she said when she got onstage.

Jules (50:54):
Yeah.

Joseph (50:54):
People empathize with it excuse me, empathize with it
related to it.
And if she does, you know,reach the goal line, it was her
getting up on stage anddelivering those words from her
heart.

Jules (51:10):
that sort of sealed the deal, yeah 100%, and so we'll
talk about this more.
But she has given a huge fightin this awards campaign, awards
season, as evidenced by thosereally beautiful speeches, and
so it will be very interestingto see what happens in the Best
Actress category.
I'm on pins and needles withregard to it.

(51:32):
As we've mentioned, it's goingto be close.

Joseph (51:36):
My head's off to her.

Jules (51:38):
It's going to be extremely close between Fernanda
Torres and Demi Moore.

Joseph (51:44):
It's going to be a photo finish for sure.

Jules (51:44):
Absolutely, that's going to be a photo finish for sure,
absolutely, and so that's goingto be one of the categories that
I'm going to be biting my nailsto see who the hell wins that
category at the end of the dayBecause, again, she hasn't
really beaten.
Fernanda Torres.

Joseph (51:55):
She has won a lot, but she hasn't really ever beaten
Fernanda.

Jules (51:59):
Torres yet.

Joseph (52:00):
Now I will say you know she's put up one hell of a fight
.
And Now I will say you knowshe's put up one hell of a fight
.
And I think those speeches, asyou said, are the cherry on top
of everything.
Those are good enough, strongenough reasons to vote for her
alone.
But let's also talk about.
You know, this would have beenthe moment for Mikey Madison.
Right, right you know built upsome momentum after that I agree

(52:22):
.
yeah, If she was going toJennifer Lawrence, her way into
a win for Best Actress thiswould have been the stop.

Jules (52:28):
I agree with you so.

Joseph (52:30):
I think that you know.
It does demonstrate that DemiMoore is the frontrunner among
those competitors.
You know again she has yet tobeat Fernando Torres.
But it also goes to show youthat to me it sort of hits the
nail on the head that there wasabsolutely no reason for demi
more to lose that bafta right,she should have gotten all four
yeah, I agree.

(52:50):
Um, so there you go.
Good speech, though I agree.

Jules (52:54):
And the biggest surprise of the night?
Well, one of them, I guess, airquotes yeah for me.
Well, at least it was a bigsurprise for me was Timothee
Chalamet winning best actor forA Complete Unknown.
I believe he's the youngestactor to ever win that SAG award
?

Joseph (53:11):
Oh wow, Is that true?
Yes, oh wow.

Jules (53:13):
And so that was a very big surprise to me.
However, I will say that I wishI had seen it coming, and I'll
explain why.
It would be very odd to have aSAG Awards where the lead actor,
where of the four actingwinners, let's say, two of them
are from films that onlymustered one nomination from the

(53:35):
SAG committee, which goes toshow that those films were
appreciated, respected.
They weren't loved, you know.

Joseph (53:42):
Margaret Qualley could have been I brought this up.

Jules (53:44):
Exactly.
Margaret Qualley couldcertainly have been nominated
for the Substance.
She was not.
Guy Peters and Felicity Joneswere obvious picks to get an eye
for the supporting categories.
They were not.
So what was clear was that theSAG committee saw those films
and they were okay with them.

Joseph (53:59):
Yeah.

Jules (54:00):
And the thing they most wanted to spotlight was Demi
Moore and Adrian Brody.
And so, in people largelypredicting Demi Moore and Adrian
Brody being the winners inthose categories, you're failing
to realize that we shouldn'thave a SAG Awards where two
actors who are winning arewinning, as the films only win
nomination.
And so I should have seen thatcoming, and I should have seen

(54:23):
that one of them had to loseAdrian Brody and Demi Moore and
considering how strong the DemiMoore narrative is, that the one
to lose would have been AdrianBrody.
However, what I would not havethought was that, in that group,
the SAG voters would have saidwell, let's pick Timothee
Chalamet over, for example,ralph Fiennes who has a film

(54:47):
that's also nominated for a SAGensemble.
It's a Best Picture nominee witheight nominations.

Joseph (54:53):
He's never won.

Jules (54:55):
He's been doing this for a very long time.
He's one of our greatest actors.
Let's throw our support behindhim.

Joseph (55:01):
And if not?

Jules (55:03):
you would think okay, well, coleman Domingo.
He's a very appreciated,respected, loved, beloved actor
in that community.

Joseph (55:10):
Playing an actor.

Jules (55:11):
He's playing an actor in a way, um, and it's a
back-to-back nomination afterhis nomination for Rustin.
And so you would have thought,okay, well, you know, if we
don't want to give it to AdrianBrody, because we weren't crazy
about the Brutalist, let's giveit, let's throw away behind
Coleman Domingo.
And that was my smart guess asto what would happen in the

(55:34):
event that Adrian Brody didn'thappen.
I wouldn't have thought theywould have said no, not Ray
Fines.
No, not Coleman Domingo.
Yes, timothee Chalamet.

Joseph (55:44):
Yes, all that makes sense.
But when you put it in contextthat a complete unknown really
tied for the most nominated filmof the year at the sags you
know I'm not counting the wickednomination for stunt or the
jonathan bailey nomination,whichever one you want.
um, really, because I just thatfirst, there's no stunt category

(56:07):
at the Academy, unfortunatelynot yet, and the Jonathan Bailey
nomination came out ofabsolutely nowhere.
So just that idea that it ledformidably or tied for that lead
, I just think, shows that thefilm was that liked by the
actors and it was, I think,possibly the open spot for it

(56:27):
for a reward for that film.
Was the actor a race?
He's, he is playing the titlecharacter.

Jules (56:33):
Bob Dylan.

Joseph (56:34):
Right.
And uh, I think the only reasonwhy I thought Adrian Brody
could win this despite methinking that it's not a film
that's appealing to the actorsor that particular organization
was because he you know,everyone knows that he won the
Oscar for the Pianist withoutthat SAG win.
So this was really AdrianBrody's opportunity to win an

(56:58):
individual SAG award.
I'm not sure he's ever won asan ensemble.
I don't know if he was he inMidnight in Paris, I don't know.
I don't know.

Jules (57:05):
He might've won as an ensemble.
He was in Midnight in Paris, Ithink.
Yeah, yeah he was he was.

Joseph (57:09):
He might've won as an ensemble, but it was his first
time, first opportunity to winas an individual actor.
So for him to have lost it, Ithink is very significant.
And when you look at it, wetalk about it sometimes.
Sometimes the award, whetherit's a SAG award or an Oscar, it
doesn't go to the actor and itdoesn't go to the youngest actor

(57:31):
, Sometimes it just goes to theperson you're playing.
And so this is a SAG award forBob Dylan and this could
potentially be an Oscar for BobDylan, and that may be the
deciding factor.

Jules (57:41):
Right.
I think that's a really goodpoint and it goes back to this
idea that this film did well atthe Academy.
It got eight nominations, acomplete unknown.
A complete unknown, exactly.
And the prospect that it'sgoing to walk out with zero wins
seems really unlikely to me andthat it should land somewhere.

(58:02):
And, yes, there's that openspot for a sound where it could.
That could be its one win, butif not, then Timothee Chalamet
could be a serious, dangerousspoil for someone like Adrian
Brody, and we're going to talkabout this more, I think, for
our final predictions.
Adrian Brody, one of the biggesttasks that he has an obstacle,

(58:25):
rather, that he has to overcomehere is possibly there being,
despite it being, an incredibleperformance.
I think it's.
I'm a huge fan of thatperformance.
It's a beautiful, you know,performance from from Adrian
Brody, the performance of hiscareer.
Despite all of that, theremight be some voters who feel

(58:47):
that there's too much of sort ofa a conversation happening
between both of his wins youknow, a win for the pianist,
rather, and a win for thebuddhist and that he was playing
a holocaust survivor holocaustsurvivor for both films.
Um, possibly the work he wasdoing in between those films
aren't memorable enough for theacademy to sort of make them

(59:09):
feel that they want to give himtwo oscars for lead, as a lead
actor.

Joseph (59:13):
Remember last time that he won he went up there and he
made out with hallie berry.
Maybe some people are pissed atthat also.
I don't think so.

Jules (59:19):
I don't think that was such a long time ago.

Joseph (59:21):
You never know.

Jules (59:21):
But those are obstacles he has to overcome, despite the
strength of the performance.
You know, I think some voterswill remember.
You know that there was a sortof similarity.
I mean light similarity, I wouldsay because I think, you know,
the characters are verydifferent and the films are very
different.
But because I think thecharacters are very different

(59:48):
and the films are very different.
But there might be some peoplewho feel, you know, holocaust
survivor pianist, holocaustsurvivor the Buddhist, you know,
I want to see him in sort of adifferent package that's
possible and that really,timothee Chalamet and not Ralph
Fiennes and not Coleman Domingo,which was a shocker to me is
really the person to spoil thatwin for Adrian Brody, again

(01:00:10):
being propelled more thananything by the fact that he is
playing Bob Dylan.
It's not really aboutnecessarily the strength of the
performance or whatever youthink of the performance.
I think Timothee is very good inthat film.
It's's not really about theperformance, it's about who he's
playing.

(01:00:31):
It's a um, it's a film that'ssort of signed off by bob dylan,
um, so it has his approval.
You know, as you were saying,it would be a win for that
iconic musician, one of the mosticonic musicians of our time,
right, um?
And yeah, you were going to saysomething.

Joseph (01:00:43):
I mean.
Well, it does help, I think,the idea that, unlike someone
like Austin Butler for Elvis,this would be the second
nomination for Timothee Chalametand he does have two films up
for Best Picture and sosomething that's certainly going
to help beyond the Bob Dylan ofit all, is the idea that
Timothee Chalamet, you know, hashad a career to sort of prove
that he's going to win an Oscarat some point.

(01:01:04):
You know he's not going to winan Oscar for playing Bob Dylan
again.
This would be the one time togive it to him for playing Bob
Dylan.
Who knows if he's ever going tohave a role or I should rather,
I should say a biopic rolethat's going to be as Oscar
friendly as as the Bob Dylancharacter.
So I do think it helps thatit's not his first nomination.
If it was his first nomination,I'd be more comfortable with him

(01:01:24):
losing right now here's what Iwill say is something that's
really going in his favor isthat ballots are cast already
and so I think there's a chancethat he would have been a more
compelling choice had votersseen him win that award over
Adrian Brody.

Jules (01:01:42):
That would have maybe considered it more seriously.

Joseph (01:01:44):
At the same time, I don't think that his speech was
very good in terms of, you know,the politics of a campaign.
I don't know if it's the mostempathetic speech or the most
moving or emotional speech.
It's not a Demi Moore speechthat's gonna, you know, sort of
close the gap in the goal line,seal the deal, seal the deal.
So if there is something inMoore speech that's going to,
you know, sort of close the gapin the goal line, seal the deal,
seal the deal.
So if there is something in theether that's sort of saying I

(01:02:06):
want a real person to win, Iwant Bob Dylan to win, whatever.
If someone was sort of maybe notthat enthused by his speech at
the SAGs, you know it's notgoing to hurt him because, again
, ballots were due already.
So we'll find out if he doeswin that oscar.
You know, the sag sort ofshowed that it had been
developing and I I would arguethat and we had sort of touched

(01:02:29):
upon this in our predictions forthe sag awards that you know it
had been developing since sagnominations, because when sag
nominations show up and it'snominated for anything beyond
bob dylan, right, right, itshows how much it's liked.
This is a movie that you knowthey could have snubbed Edward
Norton here, like they snubbedGuy Pierce right.
You know this isn't a mustnominate performance from Edward

(01:02:52):
Norton right, it's a very goodperformance, but if he's going
to lose for this performanceanyway, they could have left him
off.
They could have left him off onGuy Guy Pearce or another
fringe contender in, maybeClarence Macklin, for example.
They certainly could have leftoff Monica Barbaro.
They certainly could have lefther off.
And they don't have to nominatethe ensemble.
They only really had tonominate Timothee Chalamet, and

(01:03:14):
so the idea that it didn't gettwo or three but it got four
nominations, I think, maybeshows this idea that it's just a
film that actors are reallyresponding to, in the sense that
, you know, they really respondto this idea of the actor sort
of facing this challenge oftaking on a real life person.
And to that point it won a SAGaward.
It won a SAG award for actor.

Jules (01:03:36):
Right, and I will say that again.
The indication of Timothy'sstrength in this competitive
race is going to be not hisspeech.
It's not going to matter Hisspeech.
Voting as you said is done.
The indication that he's astrong competitor is that he was
even able to win this award forbest actor, and that was

(01:03:58):
certainly as you were saying.
Whatever was in the ether thatallowed that to happen was in
the ether when they were voting.

Joseph (01:04:03):
Yeah.

Jules (01:04:03):
And so that is Timothy is the biggest competition now for
Adrian Brody, which, again, Iwould not have pegged.
But I will say something that'svery important to consider is
that Timothy has his ownobstacles, is that Timothy has
his own obstacles and even if hehas on his side that he's

(01:04:24):
playing one of our favoritemusicians of all time, the great
Bob Dylan, even with that he'svery young and the Academy has
demonstrated that, unlike thebest actors category, they're a
little bit not prone Gender biasExactly they're not prone to
giving the Best Actor Award to ayoung actor, To young men

(01:04:45):
absolutely not.
You'll see in the Best Actresscategory.
You'll see the JenniferLawrences and you'll see the
Emma Stones and you'll see theBrie Larson's, but you won't see
people like Timothee Chalamet,a 29-year-old, winning that
award.
In general, it just seems likethe academy at large is hesitant

(01:05:05):
to give such a big award to ayoung male actor, and I think
that's a very big thing that hehas to fight against, and I'm
not sure he can win that battleand certainly a young male actor
who's fetishized in popularculture.

Joseph (01:05:18):
Right, we're talking about you.
Look at when brad pitt and leodicaprio win.
They don't win for theirperformance as a young, as young
men.
I'm dicaprio, I don't rememberfetishized in popular culture.
Right, we're talking about you.
Look at when Brad Pitt and LeoDiCaprio win.
They don't win for theirperformance as young men.
Dicaprio I don't remember whatage he was when he did the
Aviator, but he did lose for theAviator.

Jules (01:05:31):
Right, you know, right, after a big gap between what he
didn't go for.

Joseph (01:05:34):
Finally being able to get nominated again.
It was actually only his secondnomination.
Yeah it was First leadnomination, yeah.
Biopic from Marty.

Jules (01:05:44):
Still lost.
Yeah, so they certainly holdmale actors to a higher standard
If they're going to give theaward to you you tend not to be
a young person.

Joseph (01:05:54):
We got to do that research for when we do our
final predictions Last time thathappened.

Jules (01:05:56):
That's a very big thing he has to fight against.
And now, moving on to the lastcategory, which very big thing
he has to fight against.
And now, moving on to the lastcategory, which is a SAG award
for best ensemble.
It went to Conclave.
I had Conclave as my number two.

Joseph (01:06:10):
But you have a number one.

Jules (01:06:11):
I had Wicked as the winner because, in my mind
exactly, and I think that'simportant.
I don't think that's somethingto scoff at.
Not a good, not a good day.
Being the most nominated SAGfilm, which off not a good, not
a good day, being the mostnominated sack film, which I
think is, in my opinion, a bitoverkill.
You know, it was hard for me tothink that that film would walk
out with zero nominations andreally that the best place for
it to be awarded would have beenensemble, not actress or

(01:06:31):
supporting actress right orsupporting actor right, and so I
had that as my pick.
I did have conclave as mynumber two.
I will say that, yeah, I didn'texpect Conclave to win, and
this win for Conclave, I think,was the solidification of the
momentum shift towards.

(01:06:52):
You know what, anora, notreally for me, that much yes to
Conclave as being the sort ofconsensus pick, you know,
something we can all agree on,right, and I think that's
trouble for I think that'strouble for Anora.

Joseph (01:07:07):
I thought Anora would win this, and I think the more I
think about it, the more Ithink that Anora needed to win
this.
We talked about the idea ofwhich academy is going to show
up for.

Jules (01:07:18):
Best Picture.
Is that going to be?

Joseph (01:07:19):
the Coda Green Book Academy, or is it going to show
up for Best Picture?
Is it going to be?

Jules (01:07:23):
the Coda Green Book Academy, or is it going to be
the Parasite?

Joseph (01:07:24):
Moonlight Academy.
Which one's going to show up.
Well, we know which SAG showedup, right, we know that Parasite
won the SAG award.
We know that Moonlight won theSAG award.

Jules (01:07:36):
No, it didn't Hidden, figures.

Joseph (01:07:37):
Hidden Figures.
Oh, you're absolutely rightHidden Figures, hidden.

Jules (01:07:40):
Figures.
Oh, you're absolutely right,hidden Figures.
That was a freaking shock.
Yeah, you're right.

Joseph (01:07:43):
It's Jordan.
I've been, but you're right,hidden Figures did win, so maybe
there's a shot that theMoonlight yeah, but I like what
you said about Parasite winning.
Parasite did win this and Iwould argue that I think that
was the big moment for Parasite,right, because the DGA went for
1917, and I think the ProducersGuild, I think they went for

(01:08:03):
1917.

Jules (01:08:06):
You know, what would be interesting for us to research
as we make our final predictionsis how often does a film
overlap with the BAFTA and theSAG and not at?

Joseph (01:08:17):
that point in your best picture?
Yeah, we have to look that up.

Jules (01:08:20):
Because, for example, you brought up a very good example
of concrete prevailing at theBAFTAs as opposed to Onora, but
possibly Onora being more in therealm of everything everywhere
all at once and Onora doingbetter on Academy Award night.
However, everything everywhereall at once won the SAG Award
for Ensemble.

Joseph (01:08:38):
Yeah, Onora really needed to recuperate that BAFTA
loss with a big SAG win.
And I'll say you know, itdidn't just lose the ensemble,
it lost both awards it was upfor.
So it didn't win anything atthe SAGs Three awards yeah
you're right it was up for threebecause Euro was nominated as
well, so it lost three awards.

Jules (01:08:57):
It didn't win anything.

Joseph (01:08:59):
Maybe that's the most disappointing thing, but I
really thought that Anora couldwin this acting award, the
ensemble award.
Listen, if Anora is too edgyfor the SAG ensemble award,
isn't it going to be too edgyfor the Academy?

Jules (01:09:16):
You know, it's certainly something that makes you pause
and think and, like I said,conclave overlapping with both
the BAFTA and the SAGs is not agood sign for Onora Nope, and,
if anything, it spells trouble.

Joseph (01:09:29):
That's a good combination.

Jules (01:09:31):
We have to research that but I'm pretty sure we're going
to see it's a pretty goodcombination, yeah exactly, and
so that is a very big red flagfor Onora's possibilities to win
Best Picture.
So I certainly think it makesit clear, as we were saying
earlier on this episode, thatit's a race between Conclave or
Onora for that Best Picture win,and Onora took a really big hit

(01:09:52):
.

Joseph (01:09:53):
And I'll say this again it's too late.
Voting has been turned in.
Nothing's going to change withthe SAG winners, but what
matters was the ether.
Isabella Rossellini.

Jules (01:10:06):
Oh, I'm sorry, I apologize.
I thought you were going to saywhat was in the ether.

Joseph (01:10:08):
What was in the ether Is what's important.

Jules (01:10:10):
And that led to the conclave win for Besson-Savo.

Joseph (01:10:13):
Absolutely.
But what I was going to say wasIsabella Rossellini, during the
ceremony, send her well wishesto Pope Francis, right, right,
and so obviously, everythingthat has occurred with Pope
Francis recently, you know.
We hope for his speedy recovery.
He looks like a good enoughperson, a decent enough person.
So, you know, well wishes tohim.

(01:10:33):
But what are the odds, theserendipity that what's
occurring now with you know,pope Francis, you know, having
some health issues on the cuspof you know conclave, possibly
winning best picture, I don'tknow, I don't know if I believe

(01:10:55):
in I guess what I'm saying iscertainly sounds like the kind
of thing you can't make up rightyou know you can sort of I
don't know.
Yeah, that's an interestingpoint interesting that of all
the time that it's happening now.
I just think it's maybesomething serendipitous,
possibly, yeah yeah, I thinkthat's a good point.

Jules (01:11:15):
That's something I hadn't thought of, that neither I
hadn't thought of that either.

Joseph (01:11:19):
But I mean I can, I can sort of sometimes in the world.
You can sort of picture theheadlines, both good and bad,
happening before you and thoseheadlines happen yeah that's all
I'm saying yeah, no, I, I hearwhat you're saying and it makes
sense to me.

Jules (01:11:33):
Um, that's an interesting point, and so those were the
sag Again, a lot of information,revelations, rather, having
occurred in those two ceremoniesthat are going to really help
and also confuse our finalpredictions, right and so we'll

(01:11:55):
see what happens.

Joseph (01:11:56):
Well, let's talk really quickly just about the Spirit
Awards, right, exactly?

Jules (01:11:59):
I was going to segue there the Spirit Awards.

Joseph (01:12:01):
The one good thing that happened to an aura this weekend
uh, being crowned sort of theindependent film.

Jules (01:12:07):
The film that the independent community is most um
putting their support behind isan aura at one best film, at
one best director and at onebest lead performance for mikey
madison.
I don't think any of those winsare surprises.
To be honest, the Brutalist nothaving done better with
nominations was a surprise forsome people.
It's biggest nomination, Ithink, was for best director.

Joseph (01:12:31):
I'm not sure if Adrian Brody was nominated or not.

Jules (01:12:33):
I don't think that he was , and so Sean Baker prevailed
there he was sort of theunanimous favorite.
I think it's just clear thatthat is the film that the
independent community issupporting.

Joseph (01:12:45):
Could be interesting to watch the idea that A Real Pain,
as you said, won thatScreenplay Award Right and or
was not nominated, I believe,for Screenplay at the Press
Award Awards.

Jules (01:12:53):
Neither was a substance, but again, just that idea that
people really do enjoy thescreenplay for A Real Pain Right
.
People really do enjoy thescreenplay for a real pain,
right, and it's a hard film tonot like, to be honest in my
opinion, and so that was notvery revealing.
No, what else?
We had Best first feature goingto DD and best first screenplay

(01:13:17):
also going to DD, and bestbreakthrough performance being
Maisie.

Joseph (01:13:19):
Maisie Did a great job Right?

Jules (01:13:20):
She did a really beautiful job in my Old Ass.
She won the Critics' Choice, Ithink too for Young Performer.

Joseph (01:13:26):
So she did a fantastic job on that film.

Jules (01:13:27):
Yeah, she was really beautiful in that movie and what
else.
We have foreign film Go to Flow.
Yeah, which was interesting.
You know, it kind of confusesthis space as to, you know,
animated feature you know, isflow going to be able to muster
enough support?
It seems like it has supportfrom the independence, but from

(01:13:48):
the from the independentcommunity.
Does it have the support fromthe foreign base?
Well, same thing with an aura.
An aura has a support from theindependent film community but
does it.
Have it as a broader base forthe international community.

Joseph (01:14:00):
No, have it as a broader base for the international
community.
Now I will say Flo won thataward, but it did not beat Amila
Perez not nominated Right andit did not beat.

Jules (01:14:07):
I'm Still here which I don't believe was nominated
either.

Joseph (01:14:10):
I thought that award would go to Mike Lee for Heart
Troops.
Unfortunately it didn't, butFlo.
Very cool choice as well, soit's nice to see it win
something at the same time.
It didn't really face any ofits strongest adversaries.

Jules (01:14:23):
Right Uh, Nickel Boys won cinematography.

Joseph (01:14:25):
Yeah, that was very nice to see.
That was very nice for John.

Jules (01:14:27):
Um, uh, unfortunately that was not nominated for an
Academy Award, but it wasn't asurprise for us that it wasn't
going to be nominated, right, ofcourse?

Joseph (01:14:33):
we had been saying that for a while.
September 5th.

Jules (01:14:35):
September 5th, Best Editing.

Joseph (01:14:37):
That's another good one.
That's pretty cool to see.
That's another good one.

Jules (01:14:39):
Yeah, I think the editing was really sort of forgotten in
that movie.

Joseph (01:14:43):
Had it been 9 for Picture, I would have told you
yeah, it's going to be Picture,screenplay and Editing Right
exactly.

Jules (01:14:49):
It's kind of weird that that film didn't do better in
editing, because there's a lotof editing in the movie.

Joseph (01:14:53):
That's just Paramount shooting its movies in the foot
Right um what else?
Well, girls will be girls.
I think one uh cassavetes awardreally like that film as a
really beautiful film.

Jules (01:15:05):
Great category about that .
Yeah, that's a really greatcategory um history.

Joseph (01:15:08):
Daughters was winning the robert alvin award, which
was nice to see.
I really love that movie aswell.

Jules (01:15:13):
Fantastic yeah, um what else I think that's it I think
those were the main uh takeaways, but again, the biggest
takeaway being that Onora has asupport Is this sort of
unanimous choice and that's nota surprise.
Yeah, I think what's somethingthat's more surprising to me is
that and again, right now I'mreally just basing it off mostly
the BAFTA but that I wouldthink that Onora would have had

(01:15:38):
still a stronger internationalsupport, considering that it's
the Palme d'Or winner.
And so in a way that'sinteresting to me to see, that
it possibly is a vulnerable spotin its campaign because it won
the biggest award that you couldpossibly win, possibly, some

(01:16:00):
would say, in cinema, butcertainly international cinema
Right, and it's kind of theopposite of Parasite, which you
know had a tremendous amount ofsupport from the international
cinema and somehow sort of brokeinto this sort of quote unquote
, click this bubble of theAcademy Right and mustered a win
.
And Orr is the opposite.

(01:16:21):
It's sort of a film that isdoing well for americans and the
independent community, um, uh,the producers guild, the
directors guild, but doing alittle bit more flawed, you know
, uh, having more problemsoutside of that bubble right as
as of right now, yes, but I willsay again, if you look at the

(01:16:41):
bafta nominations, that god,that was a great day for its
nominations.

Joseph (01:16:45):
Yeah and you know I think we talked about it.
You know that is a pretty bigprize for cinema, and so I'm
sure it's going to have itsinternational fans if it wins,
you could argue, possibly, thatit was the international fans
that might have made thedifference right the people who
have such esteem for the Palmed'Or winner.
At the same time, I've alwaysbeen of the opinion the entire

(01:17:06):
year that our Palme d'Orautomatic spot in the top 10 was
sort of complicated by the ideathat it was the rare English
language American film to winthe Palme d'Or Right American
film to win the.
Palme d'Or Right, and so thenit didn't really shock me too
much to think that, oh well,Amelia Perez has all of a sudden

(01:17:29):
sucked up all this energybecause it is at least a foreign
language film that competed forthe Palme d'Or Right.
Same deal with the Substance,where, yes, it is an English
language film as well, but it'ssuch a large international
co-production right with thefrench director and uk support
and us support.
That you know.
I it's again this.

Jules (01:17:48):
I a more comfortable idea of a palm duer winner, right,
right, and so that's that's sortof interesting to me, sort of,
you know, kind of ironic.
Yeah, um, and so that was ourrundown of the biggest
ceremonies that just havehappened over the last several
days the BAFTA winners, the SAGwinners and the Independent

(01:18:09):
Spirit Award winners.
Coming up quick is going to beour final predictions for the
Academy Awards.
Those episodes will be up bythe end of the week.

Joseph (01:18:17):
Might do a couple of those yeah we'll do possibly a
couple of those.

Jules (01:18:20):
It's a lot to go through, it's a lot to talk about.
Um, we're going to try to doevery category right exactly.
We'll do every category, whatwe're seeing and who our final
predictions are.
And, of course, we'll beposting our very final final
predictions on our twitter atacademy anon.
Please follow us, um, and youknow, I think it's going to be
to the very end.
We're going to to be scratchingour heads wondering, you know,

(01:18:41):
could this happen, could thisnot happen In certain categories
?
many of which we've mentionedtoday on this episode.
So we look forward to that.
We'll have those episodes up bythe end of the week and, as
always, it's been a pleasure.
I'm Jules and I'm Joseph.
See you next time.
The music on this episode,entitled Cool Cats, was

(01:19:05):
graciously provided by KevinMacLeod and incompetechcom,
licensed under Creative Commonsby Attribution 3.0
http//creativecommonsorg.
Licenses buy 3.0.

Joseph (01:19:31):
Disclaimer the Academy Anonymous podcast is in no way
affiliated or endorsed by theAcademy of Motion Picture Arts
and Sciences.