Episode Transcript
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Welcome to the After Wine School Podcast! This week Keith and Alana discuss why tariffs matter to wine lovers, and how they may affect you personally.
.893Please share this podcast with anyone who loves wine! Welcome to After Wine School, the wine podcast.
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This is Alana Zerbe with my partner Keith Wallace.
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I'm here.
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I'm here.
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I'm swear.
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Welcome.
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We are here today to talk about a little bit of a tough topic.
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We're gonna dive into tariffs.
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We want to offer some.
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Firsthand perspective.
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We've been through this before and so Keith and I thought it might be helpful to talk through some lessons.
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We've learned, some thoughts about how to move through uncertainty.
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So that's the goal of today's podcast.
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As always, we are sponsored by the National Wine School.
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The country's absolute best in online wine education, and as always.
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They have asked us to make sure we tell the good people that any opinions and viewpoints said on this very podcast are completely our own and do not reflect anything.
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The National Wine School or any other business really would want attributed to them.
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That gives us a little cover so we can say honest things.
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That's let's just be honest.
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There we go.
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Like we, that's great.
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I that fantastic.
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They're not liable, but that allows us to talk some really hard pieces.
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This is a hard conversation to have.
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And I would, so where should we start here? Because this is tough.
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This is tough.
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So the landscape today, in some ways, I think although we had tariffs, was it 2016? That Yeah.
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The first round that would make that we have dealt with tariffs before.
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I think what is.
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Particularly tough at this moment in time is that there is a little bit of an existential crisis when it comes to wine generally with so much consumption at historic lows.
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That's true.
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Continuing and ongoing climate change issues and then layering on top of it.
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Now, the difficulty of accessing some of the most.
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Wonderful, beautiful things in the entire world.
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So I think it might be helpful just to talk a little bit about what is most salient for folks like us who are small business owners? Yes.
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Really with very little power over these changes.
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That's true.
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There is incredibly small amount Yeah.
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Of power.
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And.
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Maybe let's just talk about what are the biggest concerns that we have with tariffs and what might happen, and then we'll follow up.
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We'll try to end with a little bit of positivity and optimism about what can come Absolutely.
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From a difficult situation.
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And I would say there's always.
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There's always an upside to market disruptions.
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There always is this isn't, it's not great for people who are already in the business, but it does offer, there's gonna be a lot of upside in a few years.
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I just wanna say that flat out like this is, this, is, this can be incredibly good, incredibly beneficial to people moving into the markets now or considering or thinking about it in the next five years.
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Interesting.
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That is actually a.
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Definite positive.
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I think we should also describe like how, why is it so uniquely difficult for the wine trade when we see things like tariffs or even just different laws in state by state, like small changes have these big outsize effects.
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So first of all.
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We, all of us are small, right? The wine school, small, everything is small.
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Largely because we're not one country when it comes to liquor laws.
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We are, every state has its own laws that so it's unique unlike.
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We have all these trade laws around the country where free markets, it's all free markets.
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That's end to end of the United States.
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It's a big free market, except what from when it comes to alcohol here.
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Each state has their own rules and big chunk of that is you can only distribute or sell wines to your own population.
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There's a there's out, there's some things that are not like that.
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Like sometimes you can, in some states you can buy from.
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Other states have it shipped.
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Wineries can ship to you, but for the most part, it's actually, I.
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And so we have a lot of small companies, which is awesome.
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That means that if you wanna be in the wine trade, it's not that hard 'cause you're not having to compete with a big national company.
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You're having to compete with a statewide company, a regional company.
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This.
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Offers a lot of small businesses and that's where really where the power and the effectiveness of being in the wine trade, like at the wine school.
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So many of our students become small business owners and make really good livings that way.
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So what you're saying is low barriers.
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To entry.
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Yes.
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That is a definite bonus.
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There's a lot of creativity.
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Things are smaller scale.
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They're human scale.
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You've mentioned this phrase that I love.
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Things go on agricultural time in the wine world.
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Oh, yes.
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That is really good.
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Thank you for bringing that up.
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Thank you for queuing me on that.
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That's really fantastic because not only are we small, but we do, we're on agricultural time just because vineyards take.
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10, 20 years to plant and to, or regions to become popular or different styles that come into play.
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I always like to point out that when I started the wine school, decades ago, chardonnay was this huge, like everyone drunk Chardonnay, but then that slowly petered away.
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But we had a conversation off mic.
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Yes.
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About how this is.
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All of a sudden changing it in relation to like Sauvignon Blanc, would you like talk about this for a little bit? Yeah, so I think what's fascinating with wine is that there's two perspectives.
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There's obviously this great historical perspective that goes back thousands of years that wine's a part of our part of our culture.
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And you can walk in the same footsteps that famous winemakers or famous Romans did.
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Hundreds of years ago, and we're also on agricultural time.
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So there is this long view that you have to have, but all of this at the same time exists in a world like with anything else where things are always changing.
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And it certainly was the case.
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I know in your era of starting the wine school, Chardonnay was.
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The top.
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It was huge.
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It's insane.
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Why? It's huge.
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And it was the classic Napa style, the buttery, the oaky, the big.
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And by the time I started teaching about 10 years ago, it had changed dramatically such that it was the outlier who said they liked Chardonnay, of course.
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And they didn't even want to admit it.
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And it's fascinating now because a.
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About six, nine months ago, I really started noticing it's half and half.
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If I ask a one-on-one class, how many people prefer a New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc? How many people prefer a California Chardonnay or that style? Okay.
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It's pretty much equal, and it's not, oh, the older folks are, say, raising their hand more? No it's, the demographics have nothing to do with it.
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It is across the board.
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And what I tell the students, because I am always surprised, I actually tell them how surprised I am at what they're indicating here.
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And the important thing to keep in mind, my Pomeranian is really.
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Right now he is completely tangled in your let's explain what's going on.
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We are, I don't know if I can, okay.
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Okay.
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So here we are.
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Okay.
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So what just happened was we're actually recording.
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In the woods of Maine in a little cabin, and we have one of our dogs just wrapped around my cord that's hooked into with the microphone.
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As Lana was talking, I was desperately trying to unweave myself from this rabid Pomeranian trying to unweave ourselves from this rabbit Pomeranian for a very long time.
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So he is now in my arms.
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We'll see how long this lasts right next to the mic, so may have next to the mic.
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Unfortunate barking incident that's gonna blow my air drums out, out, out of the back of my head.
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That's gonna be an embarrassing way to die.
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However, now this is a family effort.
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Yes.
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This is this trend has changed.
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But mind you we're talking over a decade that's changed and that's, this is agricultural time.
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Things change slowly and then all of a sudden you notice that.
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They are changing again.
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And one of the things we've noticed at the school is that people are much more interested, not as much in like austere whites, but in like really like expressive whites.
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Yes.
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A lot of my classes now and when I'm designing a wine class for the public, I am putting in more intense aromatic perfumed white wines.
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There's a real big love of that.
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It used to be, I would.
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Have them.
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I would insist, I would.
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It's back in the day I would insist on having roses.
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Even though people thought roses were awful.
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I would insist on having these big, beautiful, white wines as well, even though people hated them.
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Because it's no, you can't just get to the red.
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You have to see these amazing white wines and it's like you have to eat your peas before you can have your desserts.
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That's how I saw it.
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But now people just absolutely love it.
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Sometimes that's their favorite part.
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I remember it wasn't that long ago when.
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When a lot of people would say, Haida don't like white wines, you don't hear that anymore.
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So I, yeah.
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Trends are trends, and these are long term, but, and so in a institution, institutions like this, like these small businesses, and even like wineries are small.
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Everything is small.
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And so when you bring something in like tariffs ho.
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It changes everything and is this huge tsunami of change in a place that's not used to very short term change.
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And you should also understand that we're not just small, we're interconnected.
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Everything is connected.
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So for instance, if you only drink California wines great, but the person selling that to you, that wine shop.
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They rely on all the sales of French wine and Spanish wines and Portuguese wines to keep their margins up.
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Like they can't exist alone.
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If they could, they would have, right.
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You would have a lot of wine shops that were just, America.
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Hell yeah.
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That's what you would have.
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Like you have, but they don't exist because we have a very specific styles but we don't have, we're, we need to have all styles.
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It's kinda like you would only have, if you had a bookstore, you only had.
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One kind of fiction, like you only had like Marmite fiction, right? We only have, yeah, we only did fiction about rodents and rodent related activities and that's it.
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You can't exist with that.
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What you can, you need to have the whole world and.
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But it's not just a wine shop that is, has to have Bordeaux and Burgundy and Spanish wines and German wines and Australian wines.
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It's not just that, but it's also the distributor, the person, the company that actually brings those wines to you.
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That a huge part of their portfolio as well is our European wines and outside of the United States.
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So if all of a sudden.
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Everything, but California wines are incredibly expensive and no one's buying them.
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Then every piece of commerce, every piece of the puzzle falls apart and everyone all of a sudden goes outta business like so you can easily see a distributor going outta business.
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And so say you're on the East coast, say that you're in Massachusetts.
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The one distributor that's actually carries your favorite bottle of California wines.
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They also carry a whole lot of European wines as well.
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If they go out of business, you're never get, you're not be able to get that bottle of wine again, right? Because it no longer has a represent representative in that steak.
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'cause each state is its own rules and you have to have a distributor in that state, that wine.
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And therefore, so they are the only ones who can supply that wine to that wine shop.
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There are a few variations on that.
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Like Jersey isn't like that, but Jersey is corrupt as hell.
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So like We can ignore Jersey and sure, maybe you can buy that wine directly from the winery, but then you're buying a case, right? Or two cases and you're paying more money than you would have if you were buying it at your local wine store, which is the weird thing.
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So now you're, you are in fact paying more money.
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And this has this effect, this, and everything suddenly starts costing more money.
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And largely 'cause everyone's losing money.
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So you, so yeah.
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Are your California wines gonna get cheaper? No, they're gonna get more expensive because there is less wines to be sold.
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And if it's a small producer, more people are buying that wine.
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So like we have, we're a large wine producing comp country, but.
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We're not gonna be able to supply all the wines for this country, like everyone.
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So if everyone just buys California wine, now you have, you don't have enough supply for the demand.
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And so those prices are gonna go up.
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There's no upside to consumer at this scenario.
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Like your prices are going to go up no matter what you're paying for.
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If they don't go up, it means you just, they don't exist anymore in your marketplace.
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And so this becomes a real problem all the way around.
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So there's no way of getting out of this that everything with tariffs are gonna cost more, and the higher the tariffs, the less choice you're gonna have.
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Because more and more businesses are gonna step out of it, at least for a while.
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They, or they will just limit and they will actually have to start laying people off.
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And that's the hard piece here.
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We're not in a good place.
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For the companies right now that are in business, they're coming into really tough times and you're always, you're already starting to see it in the distribution, not in retail yet, and you're gonna start seeing it in the next months, few months if tariffs.
200
00:14:43,753.893 --> 00:14:44,323.893
Stay.
201
00:14:44,713.893 --> 00:14:54,733.893
And if they continue or if they increase at all, you're gonna start seeing a lot of disruptions in the marketplace because we're not used to it, we're not, we're small companies.
202
00:14:54,823.893 --> 00:14:57,343.893
Everyone is gonna freak out in their own specific way.
203
00:14:57,823.893 --> 00:15:00,853.893
Some people will actually just go outta business.
204
00:15:00,883.893 --> 00:15:10,353.893
Some people will be smart and have been smart and actually have done the thing that I tell people to do, which is get it in now.
205
00:15:10,453.893 --> 00:15:11,23.893
Get it in.
206
00:15:11,73.893 --> 00:15:27,213.893
The hard thing is boats don't go fast and if to get it in now, you would've had to think about this six months to a year ago of the possibility that you would need to actually place larger orders and make sure they're in this country before there's a possibility of tariffs.
207
00:15:27,663.893 --> 00:15:33,423.893
So the people who did that, and there are some companies that did that, that are really well run and really thought for, thought through that.
208
00:15:34,743.893 --> 00:15:36,723.893
And one of those companies is us.
209
00:15:37,733.893 --> 00:15:38,153.893
Yes.
210
00:15:38,153.893 --> 00:15:42,603.893
So preparing for this this time around has been possible.
211
00:15:42,603.893 --> 00:15:50,213.893
There's been some foreshadowing that tariffs would increase be a tool in the current administration's playbook.
212
00:15:50,693.893 --> 00:15:57,858.893
What happened in 2016? Let's take a historical view before something.
213
00:15:58,913.893 --> 00:16:00,23.893
That was put into place.
214
00:16:00,33.893 --> 00:16:03,783.893
What did the wine school do at that time? Oh boy.
215
00:16:03,843.893 --> 00:16:04,323.893
All right.
216
00:16:04,363.893 --> 00:16:06,523.893
At that stage we did not expect it at all.
217
00:16:06,553.893 --> 00:16:07,148.893
That's the difference.
218
00:16:07,148.893 --> 00:16:08,588.893
We did not expect it.
219
00:16:09,253.893 --> 00:16:21,873.893
So what we had to do was we just calculated like we, that this was gonna cost and more likely that it was gonna be about 20% more.
220
00:16:22,248.893 --> 00:16:29,588.893
So what we had to do was we had to start increasing prices slowly for classes because we just knew that over time.
221
00:16:30,188.893 --> 00:16:31,328.893
And so what we did.
222
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Now, there's a delay effect when you're buying.
223
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So we just bought retail at that stage, so if we like everyone else, but what we saw, so we just bought a little bit more than we expected.
224
00:16:41,628.893 --> 00:16:47,598.893
And because the wine school is in Philadelphia in a state control, we knew that their inventory was about a year.
225
00:16:47,718.893 --> 00:16:50,598.893
So we actually had about a year before.
226
00:16:50,913.893 --> 00:16:55,243.893
The costs really started trickling into us where we are gonna have to start.
227
00:16:55,243.893 --> 00:17:01,463.893
So we absorbed some of the costs and we passed on some of the costs to our of our students, which I didn't wanna do, but we had to do it slowly.
228
00:17:01,913.893 --> 00:17:04,553.893
And then, and then of course, I.
229
00:17:05,723.893 --> 00:17:12,173.893
By 2020 when we started seeing, and then 20, 21, 22, when we started seeing inflation, we also had to deal with that as well.
230
00:17:12,563.893 --> 00:17:15,443.893
But that's a different story for a different time.
231
00:17:15,498.893 --> 00:17:19,608.893
So there's, there were things we could do.
232
00:17:19,608.893 --> 00:17:20,688.893
We could maneuver.
233
00:17:20,748.893 --> 00:17:20,958.893
Yes.
234
00:17:21,108.893 --> 00:17:25,918.893
Reallocate resources in some ways absolutely keep us lean and mean.
235
00:17:26,8.893 --> 00:17:32,378.893
Yes, And continue on this time with tariffs, being that it is this.
236
00:17:33,98.893 --> 00:17:36,749.893
Gestalt of declining wine sales, right? Yeah.
237
00:17:36,754.893 --> 00:17:36,808.893
Yeah.
238
00:17:36,808.893 --> 00:17:40,678.893
A new sort of neo prohibitionist movement coming in.
239
00:17:40,768.893 --> 00:17:40,948.893
Yes.
240
00:17:41,458.893 --> 00:17:45,598.893
We do wanna say there's always opportunity in crisis.
241
00:17:45,598.893 --> 00:17:46,18.893
Absolutely.
242
00:17:46,48.893 --> 00:17:48,333.893
This seems particularly formidable.
243
00:17:48,643.893 --> 00:17:48,933.893
What.
244
00:17:49,633.893 --> 00:18:01,418.893
What would we, what do we wanna say to folks? Oh I think, to be honest, one of the things we could, can do is I think we should have a whole podcast just on the changing demographics of wine drinkers.
245
00:18:01,418.893 --> 00:18:02,408.893
'cause that's fascinating.
246
00:18:02,708.893 --> 00:18:02,770.893
Oh, I love that.
247
00:18:02,770.893 --> 00:18:02,771.893
Yes.
248
00:18:02,888.893 --> 00:18:03,668.893
We really should.
249
00:18:03,668.893 --> 00:18:07,743.893
Let's just talk about, 'cause I am not that concerned about it right now at all.
250
00:18:07,743.893 --> 00:18:07,878.893
Okay.
251
00:18:07,908.893 --> 00:18:10,593.893
That is not and there's reasons why Interesting.
252
00:18:10,593.893 --> 00:18:10,893.893
I am.
253
00:18:11,103.893 --> 00:18:13,23.893
And, but that's a whole, so if we just.
254
00:18:15,963.893 --> 00:18:19,173.893
'cause what we did and a lot of, so we did it on a small scale.
255
00:18:19,173.893 --> 00:18:20,823.893
We're a small, like the school is small.
256
00:18:21,273.893 --> 00:18:28,713.893
So what we did was six months ago I started buying a lot of the wines we assume was gonna be hit with tariffs.
257
00:18:29,193.893 --> 00:18:34,808.893
So right now, if you come to my house pretty much I have one entire floor of my house.
258
00:18:35,498.893 --> 00:18:35,778.893
Just.
259
00:18:36,243.893 --> 00:18:41,763.893
Stacked with wine bottle wine cases, just so it's everywhere.
260
00:18:41,763.893 --> 00:18:45,153.893
Ev like I have a ping pong table, it's stacked all the way up under there.
261
00:18:45,453.893 --> 00:18:50,193.893
It's all around, this is my, the floor where have my gym and my television, all that.
262
00:18:50,193.893 --> 00:18:51,63.893
So it's just crazy.
263
00:18:51,63.893 --> 00:18:52,23.893
It's stacked everywhere.
264
00:18:52,653.893 --> 00:18:57,933.893
Not to mention the school's actual wine cellars, which are completely stacked to the gills as well.
265
00:18:58,253.893 --> 00:19:07,133.893
And I'm gonna place another order because, as well, before these tax, they really come hold 'cause we're starting to plan for our advanced Somalia programming.
266
00:19:07,133.893 --> 00:19:11,543.893
And so we're getting those out of the cell and now we're gonna bring even more that last round.
267
00:19:11,543.893 --> 00:19:12,983.893
So that, sure.
268
00:19:13,643.893 --> 00:19:18,863.893
That'll give me us about a good year-ish.
269
00:19:19,133.893 --> 00:19:21,803.893
But I'm gonna still, we're gonna, the costs are still gonna go up.
270
00:19:21,803.893 --> 00:19:26,303.893
'cause mind you, there were already tariffs in place, right? These are not new tariffs.
271
00:19:26,693.893 --> 00:19:28,643.893
These are layered on top of old tariffs.
272
00:19:29,558.893 --> 00:19:37,928.893
And why costs are already, people probably don't realize this 'cause you don't really think about it, but they're 20 to 25% higher than they were.
273
00:19:38,558.893 --> 00:19:42,978.893
So for instance in 2016, there were.
274
00:19:43,383.893 --> 00:19:49,113.893
A specific bottle of Chianti that was $15 and it was a classic part of our Wine 1 0 1.
275
00:19:49,653.893 --> 00:19:51,963.893
That bottle now goes for $20.
276
00:19:52,203.893 --> 00:19:56,643.893
So that's the change of price points that we have all seen already.
277
00:19:56,673.893 --> 00:19:59,833.893
And that's of course one of the reasons why wine sales have dropped off.
278
00:20:00,658.893 --> 00:20:03,468.893
Different subject, but that's it's attached to it.
279
00:20:03,468.893 --> 00:20:04,548.893
So you see that.
280
00:20:04,998.893 --> 00:20:08,288.893
Now what we're gonna see is that within a year or two.
281
00:20:08,293.893 --> 00:20:08,483.893
Yeah.
282
00:20:08,558.893 --> 00:20:08,828.893
Yeah.
283
00:20:08,888.893 --> 00:20:14,338.893
Is it going to be that bottle, that was a decade ago, $15 now gonna be 25, 30.
284
00:20:14,698.893 --> 00:20:15,838.893
It's very possible.
285
00:20:15,928.893 --> 00:20:15,988.893
Yeah.
286
00:20:16,993.893 --> 00:20:24,363.893
So that just changes consumption patterns, but doesn't have to change how we teach at the school or hopefully how much we have to charge people.
287
00:20:24,363.893 --> 00:20:32,223.893
I think I've, we've planned far enough ahead that if for the next two years, if we're in a high cost environment, we're gonna be okay.
288
00:20:32,973.893 --> 00:20:41,193.893
That said, I also know that some of the really smart not as much the distributors, but the importers have been really smart.
289
00:20:41,433.893 --> 00:20:44,403.893
And if you look at and how you can tell.
290
00:20:45,18.893 --> 00:21:01,88.893
Is how, what's the, how much is, are environmentally controlled, bonded warehouses for wine? How are they looking? Right now they're filled capacity, like the every square inch has been rented out on the East coast.
291
00:21:01,268.893 --> 00:21:02,438.893
I'm not sure about the West coast.
292
00:21:02,438.893 --> 00:21:15,753.893
But on East Coast, especially in places like New York, which is a very big import center for wine, you're seeing massive numbers of boats coming in and people warehousing wines like they never usually do.
293
00:21:15,853.893 --> 00:21:20,358.893
Usually you would expect to have somewhere between 20 and 30% vacancy in these warehouses.
294
00:21:20,358.893 --> 00:21:21,888.893
But right now you're getting close to zero.
295
00:21:22,428.893 --> 00:21:24,588.893
So right now people have already thought ahead.
296
00:21:24,588.893 --> 00:21:27,348.893
They're planning, importers are thinking ahead.
297
00:21:27,558.893 --> 00:21:28,668.893
'cause they don't wanna get hit again.
298
00:21:28,718.893 --> 00:21:29,768.893
Because they, everyone got hit.
299
00:21:30,308.893 --> 00:21:32,78.893
Here's because this is the brutal thing.
300
00:21:32,618.893 --> 00:21:35,888.893
So you can have your contracts on both sides.
301
00:21:36,248.893 --> 00:21:40,868.893
You have an importer who's doing this deal, right? They're the one who's putting out all the money.
302
00:21:42,98.893 --> 00:21:51,458.893
They've made deals with your French wine makers, your Spanish wine makers, this contracts, how much they're gonna spay, how much they're gonna spend for the wines they're bringing to the United States.
303
00:21:51,728.893 --> 00:21:54,698.893
And then they also have contracts with other distributors.
304
00:21:55,98.893 --> 00:22:08,868.893
And they may even be co-owned by that distributor, but they have contracts about how much they're going to, pay that they're gonna get paid for these wines, and they've added in their 15 to 50% margin in that.
305
00:22:10,248.893 --> 00:22:22,8.893
However, if you have tariffs that come from after they ship from that country of origin and they're on the water, and this is gonna be months and months, right? These boats don't go fast.
306
00:22:22,8.893 --> 00:22:25,68.893
So if they're already on the water, when those tariffs come in.
307
00:22:26,103.893 --> 00:22:43,613.893
You have no choice but either to let those wines sit at that port, which you've already paid for, and let them go bad or pay your tariff right then, right hand that cash over to the government because you can't get it out of the warehouse unless you pay that.
308
00:22:44,108.893 --> 00:22:44,618.893
Tariff.
309
00:22:45,698.893 --> 00:22:46,328.893
That's brutal.
310
00:22:46,358.893 --> 00:22:48,788.893
Yeah, because, so you have to be thinking months and months ahead.
311
00:22:48,788.893 --> 00:22:53,348.893
Usually you're thinking at least six months to a year ahead, which is great agricultural time.
312
00:22:53,678.893 --> 00:23:05,923.893
We are always thinking ahead the people who were in that place, realizing we've already been here before let's just assure that we make sure our wines in the states, in the country before this happens.
313
00:23:06,993.893 --> 00:23:09,743.893
If you didn't think that way, then you are in big trouble.
314
00:23:09,743.893 --> 00:23:11,358.893
And you probably may go outta business.
315
00:23:11,458.893 --> 00:23:11,848.893
But yeah.
316
00:23:11,848.893 --> 00:23:15,238.893
But here's where this is.
317
00:23:15,448.893 --> 00:23:16,408.893
This is business.
318
00:23:17,68.893 --> 00:23:18,58.893
This is business.
319
00:23:18,58.893 --> 00:23:18,62.893
Here's, this is business.
320
00:23:19,108.893 --> 00:23:19,228.893
Yes.
321
00:23:19,228.893 --> 00:23:19,858.893
Get creative.
322
00:23:19,918.893 --> 00:23:20,338.893
Yeah.
323
00:23:20,488.893 --> 00:23:20,848.893
Okay.
324
00:23:20,848.893 --> 00:23:36,463.893
So if you are kind of person who's wants to be in the wine trade, now's the time because all of a sudden, so say you're say that Chateau Doah in Bordeaux is imported into this country by John Smith, incorporated.
325
00:23:36,513.893 --> 00:23:38,343.893
Wine importers.
326
00:23:38,863.893 --> 00:23:41,983.893
If John Smith incorporated wine importers goes out of business.
327
00:23:41,983.893 --> 00:23:47,623.893
Now, Chateau Doah has no way to get into the US market, right? They're stuck.
328
00:23:47,623.893 --> 00:23:49,453.893
They have nothing Now.
329
00:23:49,978.893 --> 00:24:00,58.893
This is a huge part of their income, right? Because anybody who imports in the United States this we are a big, even though we are like these tiny little fiefdoms, we're a big economy.
330
00:24:00,58.893 --> 00:24:03,358.893
Each of our states are bigger than most countries in Europe.
331
00:24:03,898.893 --> 00:24:08,698.893
So they need somebody and hey.
332
00:24:09,448.893 --> 00:24:14,28.893
If you're just coming into the market now, you, now you do not have all those contracts.
333
00:24:14,28.893 --> 00:24:15,678.893
You do not have all those employee costs.
334
00:24:15,678.893 --> 00:24:17,118.893
You do not have none of those costs.
335
00:24:17,958.893 --> 00:24:26,328.893
You are now free to make a contract with Chateau Doda and stop bringing 'em to this country and probably at a, they're gonna be happy to pay a lower rate.
336
00:24:28,38.893 --> 00:24:32,688.893
Pay higher for you to, they're gonna take a deep, deeper cut on their margins.
337
00:24:32,958.893 --> 00:24:34,788.893
You're gonna be able to bring it in.
338
00:24:35,418.893 --> 00:24:39,408.893
And now you've started your own company and now you have a very competitive company.
339
00:24:39,438.893 --> 00:24:44,388.893
And that's what's really important now, is that there's a lot of companies that did not plan ahead.
340
00:24:45,228.893 --> 00:24:47,868.893
And now they're gonna be right for somebody else to come in.
341
00:24:47,988.893 --> 00:24:55,718.893
And because everything in the wine trade is small scale, that means that a company of one or two or three people can be really competitive.
342
00:24:56,378.893 --> 00:24:59,18.893
Just wait and see right now.
343
00:24:59,198.893 --> 00:25:01,88.893
Huge amounts of upside right now.
344
00:25:01,718.893 --> 00:25:03,68.893
Disruptions in the marketplace.
345
00:25:03,248.893 --> 00:25:04,418.893
Always now.
346
00:25:04,658.893 --> 00:25:07,118.893
And that's what, there's really good upsides here.
347
00:25:07,508.893 --> 00:25:08,228.893
There's a lot of pain.
348
00:25:08,318.893 --> 00:25:10,238.893
There's gonna be, I'm not joking, there is a lot of pain.
349
00:25:10,338.893 --> 00:25:10,758.893
You.
350
00:25:11,148.893 --> 00:25:13,458.893
Like running the wine school is going to be hard.
351
00:25:13,488.893 --> 00:25:14,958.893
Because, yeah.
352
00:25:15,338.893 --> 00:25:20,278.893
'Cause not only are people afraid, 'cause when tariffs come in, everyone's afraid of higher costs.
353
00:25:20,638.893 --> 00:25:28,858.893
But the funny thing is I know in six months from now that people are gonna look at how much wine costs in their wine shop be horrified.
354
00:25:28,858.893 --> 00:25:32,38.893
And then they realize that, oh, they can take a class at the wine school.
355
00:25:32,338.893 --> 00:25:36,838.893
And it's actually like a really good deal now because we're not.
356
00:25:36,913.893 --> 00:25:39,103.893
Upcharging 'cause we already had our wines.
357
00:25:39,323.893 --> 00:25:40,643.893
We're not worried about that.
358
00:25:40,643.893 --> 00:25:44,363.893
In fact, actually the wine costs really don't even come into play into our costs anyways.
359
00:25:45,113.893 --> 00:25:50,543.893
So it's just, yeah, there's gonna be upsides for us as well.
360
00:25:50,543.893 --> 00:25:52,698.893
But yeah it's hard.
361
00:25:52,728.893 --> 00:25:53,328.893
It's really hard.
362
00:25:53,628.893 --> 00:25:54,108.893
Really hard.
363
00:25:54,318.893 --> 00:25:55,248.893
Not joking really hard.
364
00:25:55,248.893 --> 00:25:57,348.893
It's gonna, it's really a lot of pain, a lot of heart.
365
00:25:57,588.893 --> 00:25:59,928.893
There's gonna be a lot of heartbreaking stories coming out.
366
00:26:01,188.893 --> 00:26:01,518.893
Yeah.
367
00:26:01,848.893 --> 00:26:04,668.893
To seize upon that opportunity to capitalize on it.
368
00:26:04,668.893 --> 00:26:09,198.893
Now that you're gonna have a pretty, you're gonna have to have a pretty high risk tolerance.
369
00:26:09,198.893 --> 00:26:10,158.893
It's not Oh, yeah.
370
00:26:10,158.893 --> 00:26:11,748.893
Gonna be guaranteed.
371
00:26:12,198.893 --> 00:26:18,528.893
The best things are to think creatively and stay lean, stay nimble.
372
00:26:18,558.893 --> 00:26:26,613.893
Don't, bricks and mortar any old models, any old paradigms, shift away from that thinking.
373
00:26:26,613.893 --> 00:26:27,333.893
And really, I.
374
00:26:28,258.893 --> 00:26:33,528.893
Put yourself into the mindset that things tariffs may not go away.
375
00:26:33,618.893 --> 00:26:35,208.893
They simply may not, they may not.
376
00:26:35,258.893 --> 00:26:36,88.893
This, Oh, you're right.
377
00:26:36,88.893 --> 00:26:39,748.893
And this may be the best thing for the East Coast wine production you've ever seen.
378
00:26:39,838.893 --> 00:26:40,288.893
Sure.
379
00:26:40,318.893 --> 00:26:47,228.893
This really could be the the boost that a lot of vibrant small wine regions may have.
380
00:26:47,598.893 --> 00:26:55,368.893
Now they actually may be able to compete even though our land costs are so high, all of a sudden, those.
381
00:26:57,353.893 --> 00:27:01,13.893
Finger Lake Rieslings that are 20, $30.
382
00:27:01,73.893 --> 00:27:09,113.893
Oh, they're now competitive with the German Rieslings that used to be 15, 20, and now are 20, 30, 35.
383
00:27:09,983.893 --> 00:27:10,403.893
Okay.
384
00:27:10,823.893 --> 00:27:12,203.893
Now we get to start competing.
385
00:27:12,713.893 --> 00:27:14,243.893
That might be a really good thing.
386
00:27:14,303.893 --> 00:27:24,188.893
Now might be, if you were thinking about opening up a wine winery on the east coast or, or New Mexico or Washington State, this is really gonna be a time to shine.
387
00:27:24,638.893 --> 00:27:29,438.893
Oh, you wanna do a Bordeaux style? Like really crisp and lean or maybe even a Burgundian style Pinot.
388
00:27:30,128.893 --> 00:27:38,108.893
Maybe it's the time because there's gonna be a more of a marketplace for that for the next, but depends on how long you think the this is gonna last.
389
00:27:38,138.893 --> 00:27:39,638.893
'cause again, agricultural time.
390
00:27:40,83.893 --> 00:27:47,593.893
If we're thinking tariffs and this economy is gonna be like this for the next 10 years, then it makes sense to start making wines on the East coast.
391
00:27:47,653.893 --> 00:27:47,803.893
Yes.
392
00:27:48,13.893 --> 00:27:50,443.893
If this is a blip, then maybe not right.
393
00:27:50,743.893 --> 00:27:52,733.893
But this could be a big change.
394
00:27:52,763.893 --> 00:27:54,503.893
And there's always a.
395
00:27:54,503.893 --> 00:27:55,993.893
There's always negatives and there's always positive.
396
00:27:55,993.893 --> 00:28:02,263.893
I'm not saying there's a lot of positives here, but I'm saying there are some, there are places to look at to be hopeful and to be in the wine trade.
397
00:28:02,723.893 --> 00:28:04,823.893
And that's the most important thing we drink for a living.
398
00:28:05,123.893 --> 00:28:07,763.893
Not everybody, gets to do this.
399
00:28:08,293.893 --> 00:28:09,523.893
Not everybody admits it.
400
00:28:09,703.893 --> 00:28:10,93.893
That's right.
401
00:28:15,778.893 --> 00:28:16,408.893
That's awesome.
402
00:28:16,828.893 --> 00:28:17,548.893
Oh, that's true.
403
00:28:17,548.893 --> 00:28:17,968.893
True.
404
00:28:17,968.893 --> 00:28:18,688.893
It's so true.
405
00:28:18,988.893 --> 00:28:22,648.893
But yeah, and yeah, I'm not saying that I wake up every morning, go, yay.
406
00:28:22,708.893 --> 00:28:26,938.893
No it's hard because I'm gonna see a lot of, again, a lot of good friends suffer.
407
00:28:27,148.893 --> 00:28:28,18.893
I'm gonna suffer.
408
00:28:28,68.893 --> 00:28:30,468.893
It's not like this isn't gonna be easy, but there are.
409
00:28:31,398.893 --> 00:28:35,958.893
If you're in business and you wanna thrive, you do have to look at what's possible next.
410
00:28:35,988.893 --> 00:28:36,918.893
'cause there always is.
411
00:28:37,398.893 --> 00:28:37,488.893
Yes.
412
00:28:37,488.893 --> 00:28:40,258.893
And that's my real point is don't just despair.
413
00:28:40,738.893 --> 00:28:48,318.893
Look at what's possible and how you can be a part of the possibility and not drag everyone else down the wine trade.
414
00:28:48,653.893 --> 00:28:51,803.893
We're a bunch of, Hey, we're degenerate, we're weird.
415
00:28:52,73.893 --> 00:28:56,603.893
There's like antisocial, like this is common in our trade.
416
00:28:57,413.893 --> 00:28:58,823.893
Depression does run.
417
00:28:58,873.893 --> 00:29:03,633.893
I've so many people I know in the wine trade that, suffer from some sort of depression or some sort of.
418
00:29:04,813.893 --> 00:29:06,728.893
Thing you don't, I can't imagine.
419
00:29:07,8.893 --> 00:29:07,808.893
I don't right what you're talking about.
420
00:29:07,968.893 --> 00:29:09,208.893
I don't, Ooh, I don't know.
421
00:29:09,973.893 --> 00:29:14,493.893
But, so it's really important for everyone to understand, that we have to, look at the bright side of this.
422
00:29:15,93.893 --> 00:29:16,323.893
There are plenty of negatives.
423
00:29:16,323.893 --> 00:29:17,763.893
We should have put planning ahead of time.
424
00:29:17,763.893 --> 00:29:22,423.893
If you didn't plan shame on you just know you made a mistake and move on.
425
00:29:24,853.893 --> 00:29:25,273.893
But then.
426
00:29:25,688.893 --> 00:29:26,468.893
We have to look, okay.
427
00:29:26,468.893 --> 00:29:37,258.893
What does this open up for us? And I really one of the things that I will be very bullish about is the East coast like this boost that this could bring to local production? Yeah.
428
00:29:37,348.893 --> 00:29:49,608.893
To be honest, I'm in discussions with about opening up a cooperative winery in the Pennsylvania area, just largely because of this is going to be BoomTown for smaller production.
429
00:29:50,988.893 --> 00:29:52,248.893
In United States.
430
00:29:52,378.893 --> 00:30:06,328.893
And if, especially if you don't have distribution, especially if you are direct to consumer, this could truly be, if you're not relying on the distribution system, this is an amazing time, absolutely amazing time to be in business.
431
00:30:06,478.893 --> 00:30:08,938.893
So that's where I'm at, Keith, I think.
432
00:30:09,623.893 --> 00:30:10,573.893
You brought it home.
433
00:30:10,813.893 --> 00:30:12,973.893
You really, I You landed the plane.
434
00:30:12,973.893 --> 00:30:13,963.893
It was tough.
435
00:30:14,53.893 --> 00:30:15,253.893
Yeah, it was turbulent.
436
00:30:15,733.893 --> 00:30:16,243.893
Oh yeah.
437
00:30:16,243.893 --> 00:30:16,753.893
Oh no.
438
00:30:16,753.893 --> 00:30:18,733.893
People were jumping out of the, oh yeah.
439
00:30:18,733.893 --> 00:30:19,453.893
It was awful.
440
00:30:19,753.893 --> 00:30:21,673.893
But I landed and here's the thing.
441
00:30:21,973.893 --> 00:30:26,563.893
You've had a little Pomeranian in your lap who's notoriously loud and grumpy.
442
00:30:26,563.893 --> 00:30:27,733.893
He did not bark once.
443
00:30:28,123.893 --> 00:30:29,203.893
I don't know how you did that.
444
00:30:29,203.893 --> 00:30:32,473.893
I assume you did the thing where you just put a bag over his head or something.
445
00:30:32,833.893 --> 00:30:35,707.893
Is he still alive? He, he I wanna see the signs of life.
446
00:30:35,737.893 --> 00:30:37,387.893
He is proof of life here.
447
00:30:37,712.893 --> 00:30:38,282.893
Oh God.
448
00:30:38,312.893 --> 00:30:38,552.893
Okay.
449
00:30:38,612.893 --> 00:30:39,392.893
Oh, yeah.
450
00:30:39,482.893 --> 00:30:40,382.893
All yeah.
451
00:30:40,502.893 --> 00:30:40,952.893
Dancing.
452
00:30:41,462.893 --> 00:30:45,192.893
Okay, then what Alana is doing with this poor dog is so humiliating.
453
00:30:45,242.893 --> 00:30:48,182.893
She's basically gave him a top hat and he's dancing.
454
00:30:48,692.893 --> 00:30:49,772.893
Oh, this is disgusting.
455
00:30:49,772.893 --> 00:30:50,552.893
That poor bastard.
456
00:30:50,702.893 --> 00:30:53,372.893
All right, let's not torture our friends.
457
00:30:55,452.893 --> 00:30:58,332.893
With any more images of Charles, but thanks everyone.
458
00:30:58,332.893 --> 00:30:59,802.893
Hopefully this was helpful.
459
00:30:59,852.893 --> 00:31:00,722.893
I feel better.
460
00:31:00,812.893 --> 00:31:01,67.893
Oh, good.
461
00:31:01,107.893 --> 00:31:02,307.893
I hope actually I do.
462
00:31:02,307.893 --> 00:31:02,547.893
Good.
463
00:31:02,907.893 --> 00:31:03,107.893
I do.
464
00:31:03,482.893 --> 00:31:03,902.893
Yeah.
465
00:31:03,902.893 --> 00:31:04,802.893
No, ask somebody.
466
00:31:04,802.893 --> 00:31:05,72.893
Yeah.
467
00:31:05,72.893 --> 00:31:05,282.893
Yeah.
468
00:31:05,282.893 --> 00:31:07,952.893
Ask your favorite manic depressive wine school owner.
469
00:31:08,2.893 --> 00:31:09,172.893
Questions Very depressing.
470
00:31:09,172.893 --> 00:31:12,257.893
He tends to actually, I'm always depressed, so I have some.
471
00:31:12,257.893 --> 00:31:13,127.893
Good for you.
472
00:31:13,697.893 --> 00:31:14,387.893
There you go.
473
00:31:14,467.893 --> 00:31:16,387.893
I have to about this every day, so yeah.
474
00:31:16,387.893 --> 00:31:16,862.893
There you are.
475
00:31:20,122.893 --> 00:31:20,722.893
I got cope.
476
00:31:21,502.893 --> 00:31:24,22.893
You got cope i's like it.
477
00:31:24,202.893 --> 00:31:26,512.893
Alright folks, have a fantastic day.
478
00:31:26,602.893 --> 00:31:28,462.893
And look for the opportunities they're there.
479
00:31:28,942.893 --> 00:31:29,842.893
That's wonderful.
480
00:31:29,842.893 --> 00:31:30,982.893
We will hear you.
481
00:31:30,982.893 --> 00:31:32,632.893
We'll see you soon.
482
00:31:32,632.893 --> 00:31:35,672.893
You'll hear us soon and subscribe as well, please.
483
00:31:35,732.893 --> 00:31:36,62.893
Yes.
484
00:31:36,62.893 --> 00:31:38,552.893
Tell your friends and neighbors, we really want to grow this.
485
00:31:38,972.893 --> 00:31:43,382.893
Please let them know and it well if you have anything you want us to talk about, let us know too.
486
00:31:43,382.893 --> 00:31:43,682.893
Absolutely.
487
00:31:43,682.893 --> 00:31:45,212.893
Alright, CIA folks.
488
00:31:45,227.893 --> 00:31:45,647.893
Cheers.
489
00:31:47,456.215 --> 00:31:54,436.215
Thank you for listening! If you like what you hear, please rate and review this Podcast on Apple Podcasts or whereever you listen.
490
00:31:55,56.215 --> 00:31:58,506.215
It means a lot to all of us here at the National Wine School.
491
00:31:59,36.215 --> 00:32:05,506.215
Cheers! For more information about the Wine School and it's programs go to wine school-dot-u-s.