AG Bull
Tommy Grisafi is the main host and content creator for Ag Bull Media. The Ag Bull Podcast showcases agriculture's top talents in a long-form video format. The Ag Bull Trading Podcast is a deeper discussion of trading with analysts and key players in agriculture nationwide. Futures trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Episodes
We set the table for a high-stakes USDA report that could reset corn’s balance sheet while we track the real levers of demand: E15, ethanol octane, and 45Z. Along the way, we unpack rates, USMCA, trade rulings, cattle supply constraints, and new dietary guidelines that tilt toward protein.
• Corn yield revisions and feed use as key price drivers
• Soybeans steady, wheat following corn rather than leading<...
A U.S. move in Venezuela reshapes energy flows, raises the global risk premium, and sends clear signals to Cuba, China, and Russia, while a tightening U.S. cattle supply collides with screw-worm containment and no fixed border reopening timeline. Farmers get bridge payments based on modeled losses, with larger per-acre support where multi-year margins bled the most.
• Why Venezuelan heavy crude and Gulf refin...
We sprint through a year where metals spiked, bonds bristled, and policy moved markets as much as weather. We map the big shifts in grains, cattle, inputs, biofuels, trade, and the politics of food prices, then lay out what could drive demand in 2026.
• stocks rising while bonds flag risk
• silver surge and China’s export controls
• corn buoyed by exports despite big crops
• soybeans pressured by ...
We walk through the real signals under today’s commodity markets, from U.S. and global ending stocks to why corn and soy picked up acres despite lean margins. Then we map where acres will actually shift in 2026 and share a practical framework for risk, insurance, and contribution margin.
• U.S. ending stocks measured in acres across 13 crops and why 40 million is a headwind but not a glut
• World ex‑China...
We dig into tight cattle supplies, a slow, science-led reopening of the Mexico border, and why beef prices stay sticky while soybeans slide. We map out where policy could lift margins in 2026, from E-15 and 45Z to farm aid timing and ACA subsidies.
• lighter-than-expected placements and persistent cattle tightness
• phased screwworm testing with three inspections in Mexico and one in the US
• beef...
We unpack why feedlot placements keep falling, how heavier carcass weights mask some supply tightness, and where 2025 prices could land if demand stays steady. We also cut through noise on imports, the Mexico border shift, and dairy buyout rumors with history and context.
• November placements lower and annual totals sharply down
• 2025 fed cattle supplies likely tighter than 2024
• Demand steady as b...
We unpack the new farmer “bridge” aid program, the real funding source behind it, and why the math still falls short for many crops. Along the way we track rate cuts, border and water moves, USMCA signals, and China’s soybean timeline that could reshape 2026.
• travel takeaways from rice, wheat, cattle and peanut country
• India rice dumping pressure and White House response
• FBA design, payment esti...
We sit down with Rachel “Iowa Farm Mama” Fishback to explore how a pandemic pivot led to Pride of Pork, why TikTok makes farms feel close, and what the economics look like from rust-hit beans to double-cost hog barns. We trade notes on DIY media, clear audio, and why thin relief checks don’t match uneven pain across the countryside.
• launching Pride of Pork and pork industry news on Acres TV
• why casual...
We test the “golden age” claim against data on trend yields, usage, margins, and policy. Corn usage improves while soybean demand stays soft, and tighter operating margins force sharper risk management into 2026.
• Corn yields modestly above trend, not extreme
• Corn usage climbs above trend, supportive tone
• Soybean yields mid-pack with weak export story
• Rare overlap of big crop and high price...
We unpack why China’s soybean purchase timeline keeps sliding, how the market is reacting, and who should be accountable. We dig into border biosecurity worries, beef policy levers, the coming Fed move, crop insurance changes, and a likely aid bridge to 2026.
• shifting claims on China’s soybean buys and missing signatures
• soybean futures weakness and market skepticism
• screwworm concerns and quiet...
Markets open after a CME outage as we track the odds of a December rate cut, soybean sales to China without a signed deal, and the shape of USDA’s bridge aid into 2026. We lay out the stakes on tariffs at the Supreme Court, biofuel rules, E15 delays, and Farm Bill 2.0 politics while cattle find a surprising bounce.
• Fed cut odds and leadership signals
• China soybean buys, enforcement, and price gaps
We sprint through a volatile week in ag policy: Brazil tariff rollbacks, EU tariff rumors, labor and H‑2A shifts, aid program timing, RFS delays, border reopening signals, a bullish cattle-on-feed report, and breaking news on a Tyson beef plant closure.
• USDA and CFTC reporting cadence returning
• Brazil coffee and beef tariffs lifted to fight food prices
• Potential easing of EU food tariffs and NCB...
We unpack fresh market data after the government reopens, weigh China’s year-end purchase promises against a looming Supreme Court tariff decision, and pressure-test farm margins as input costs stay stubborn. We also dig into right to repair, sugar beet payment cuts, and what aid might realistically look like.
• government data returning and confidence gaps
• China purchase commitments and trade timing
We break down a light-cut USDA report, the surprise weight from “fringe” state yields, and why corn fell while soybeans slipped despite modest changes. We connect Brazil’s growing edge, cotton’s production jump, and lender warnings to policy pivots on tariffs and trade aid.
• Corn production trimmed, carryout still higher
• Fringe states offset I‑state cuts in corn
• Soybean exports ceded to Brazil an...
We unpack the week’s swirl: China’s commitments, a reopened USDA, cattle volatility, a soybean basis snapback, and record corn chatter across the Upper Midwest. Stephen Vaden’s interview frames aid expectations and trade confidence as we look toward fast-moving data and holiday demand.
• China honoring ag purchase commitments and why it matters
• SNAP restart timing and near-term demand signals
• Catt...
We track a cascading week where a grinding shutdown hits flights and the economy, China’s soybean pledges collide with tariff math, and a Justice Department probe into meat packers meets a looming border reopening that could reshape beef supply. Markets swing on headlines as EPA biofuel exemptions, fertilizer policy shifts, and fresh crop data set the next moves while affordability becomes the political keyword.
<...
Soybeans break higher while China plays its options, fertilizer refuses to blink, and cattle prices remind us how fast demand can shift. We use charts to frame solar rent math, soybean sales windows, and acreage moves that protect margin into 2026.
• solar lease economics versus row crop revenue
• soybean stock flexibility in China and sourcing paths
• price pop creates disciplined selling windows for...
We track a likely end to the shutdown, the return of critical USDA data, and fresh China commitments that pushed soybeans out of a grinding range. Rates, tariffs, and biofuel policy collide with export flows to shape a fragile but improving demand story.
• shutdown pressure from elections and program timing
• partial USDA reopenings and FSA payment backlogs
• NASS crop production and WASDE returning m...
We walk through a volatile week where shutdown politics, CPI relief, and global trade headlines moved cattle limit down while grains firmed. From Argentina beef optics to a possible Trump–Xi meeting, we connect DC decisions to cash flow, price risk, and the week ahead.
• shutdown timing linked to ACA premium hikes and party leverage
• partial FSA reopening and roughly 3bn dollars in payments to producers<...
We break down why cash rent outperforms in booms but lags in lean years, and how flex and share contracts shift risk when margins tighten. We map the corn–soybean tilt across regions, unpack China’s stockpiles, and set a practical plan for selling into strength amid missing reports.
• cash rent versus flex and share in lean and boom years
• why averages mislead when planning risk
• regional yield and ...
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