AG Bull
Tommy Grisafi is the main host and content creator for Ag Bull Media. The Ag Bull Podcast showcases agriculture's top talents in a long-form video format. The Ag Bull Trading Podcast is a deeper discussion of trading with analysts and key players in agriculture nationwide. Futures trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Episodes
We unpack fresh market data after the government reopens, weigh China’s year-end purchase promises against a looming Supreme Court tariff decision, and pressure-test farm margins as input costs stay stubborn. We also dig into right to repair, sugar beet payment cuts, and what aid might realistically look like.
• government data returning and confidence gaps
• China purchase commitments and trade timing
We break down a light-cut USDA report, the surprise weight from “fringe” state yields, and why corn fell while soybeans slipped despite modest changes. We connect Brazil’s growing edge, cotton’s production jump, and lender warnings to policy pivots on tariffs and trade aid.
• Corn production trimmed, carryout still higher
• Fringe states offset I‑state cuts in corn
• Soybean exports ceded to Brazil an...
We unpack the week’s swirl: China’s commitments, a reopened USDA, cattle volatility, a soybean basis snapback, and record corn chatter across the Upper Midwest. Stephen Vaden’s interview frames aid expectations and trade confidence as we look toward fast-moving data and holiday demand.
• China honoring ag purchase commitments and why it matters
• SNAP restart timing and near-term demand signals
• Catt...
We track a cascading week where a grinding shutdown hits flights and the economy, China’s soybean pledges collide with tariff math, and a Justice Department probe into meat packers meets a looming border reopening that could reshape beef supply. Markets swing on headlines as EPA biofuel exemptions, fertilizer policy shifts, and fresh crop data set the next moves while affordability becomes the political keyword.
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Soybeans break higher while China plays its options, fertilizer refuses to blink, and cattle prices remind us how fast demand can shift. We use charts to frame solar rent math, soybean sales windows, and acreage moves that protect margin into 2026.
• solar lease economics versus row crop revenue
• soybean stock flexibility in China and sourcing paths
• price pop creates disciplined selling windows for...
We track a likely end to the shutdown, the return of critical USDA data, and fresh China commitments that pushed soybeans out of a grinding range. Rates, tariffs, and biofuel policy collide with export flows to shape a fragile but improving demand story.
• shutdown pressure from elections and program timing
• partial USDA reopenings and FSA payment backlogs
• NASS crop production and WASDE returning m...
We walk through a volatile week where shutdown politics, CPI relief, and global trade headlines moved cattle limit down while grains firmed. From Argentina beef optics to a possible Trump–Xi meeting, we connect DC decisions to cash flow, price risk, and the week ahead.
• shutdown timing linked to ACA premium hikes and party leverage
• partial FSA reopening and roughly 3bn dollars in payments to producers<...
We break down why cash rent outperforms in booms but lags in lean years, and how flex and share contracts shift risk when margins tighten. We map the corn–soybean tilt across regions, unpack China’s stockpiles, and set a practical plan for selling into strength amid missing reports.
• cash rent versus flex and share in lean and boom years
• why averages mislead when planning risk
• regional yield and ...
We unpack Trump’s push to cool beef prices, the market’s limit-down reaction in feeder cattle, and how policy headlines are whipsawing cash and futures. We track ripple effects from talk of banning Chinese used cooking oil, Argentina’s reemergence in trade flows, and the cash-first logic behind ADM’s free DP on soybeans.
• options floated to temper beef prices and why cattle producers resist
• volatility...
We walk through a fast-moving cattle market as futures flip to a premium over cash, spreads widen, and feeders gain leverage to push bids or wait. We also weigh packer margins, rising carcass weights, retail features, and why alternative meats are losing steam.
• Futures premium over cash reshapes feeder incentives
• October–December spread widens and implies stronger mid‑November values
• Government ...
We map the weekly levels that could steer Amazon, corn futures, and Bitcoin over the next few months, with clear lines, timelines, and trade scenarios. We keep it simple: respect the weekly close, define risk at support and resistance, and let price confirm the plan.
• Amazon’s ceiling at 237.68–242.52 with 266 long-term channel target if broken
• 215.29 as buyable support; 191.36 as Fibonacci objective o...
We sit down with Jed Sidwell, an Oklahoma State senior and lifelong cattle hand, to unpack why cattle keep climbing, how cheap corn props up feeders, and why headlines from metals to screw worm can jolt prices. Jed shares a clear, calm view of animal health risks, the reality of hedging when markets run, and why direct ties to consumers make this a rare window for ag.
• background in custom forage, feedyards,...
Gold and silver rip to record highs while crude softens and soybeans slide, and we sort signal from noise across rates, tariffs, and safe-haven flows. Field reports from North Dakota reveal frost, disease, and wind shaping yields as cattle stays firm and DC stalls.
• safe-haven metals surging amid uncertainty
• rate expectations, Fed chatter, and 10-year hover
• crude softening as the real-economy sig...
Washington stalls while markets swing, and we map how a shutdown, China tensions, and a stronger dollar hit soybeans, sorghum, and cotton. We outline SDRP Stage Two, likely top-ups, funding routes, and why APH-based aid makes more sense than production-based payments.
• USDA reports paused and payments delayed under the shutdown
• SDRP Stage Two timing, potential top-ups beyond 35 percent
• RFS and 45...
Supply tightens even as front‑end cattle grow heavier and packers pace kills, creating a bullish medium‑term picture with choppy, risk‑heavy near‑term price action. We lay out why feeder highs may persist, how data gaps from the shutdown complicate decisions, and where heifer retention is starting to bite.
• counter‑seasonal decline in fed slaughter and record‑low August–September marketings
• heavier car...
Soybeans sit in a defined range with a clear midterm pivot at $10.32, while Tesla pushes a breakout path toward a higher channel target. We map the exact levels, timelines, and weekly closes that flip risk from cautious to constructive.
• continuation versus contract-specific charts and why it matters
• soybeans’ 1032 weekly pivot dropping seven cents per week
• downside magnet to 950s–970s base and t...
Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Inside the shutdown: farm payments, China, and what’s next for ag policy
We break down how the shutdown stalls key USDA payments, why Obamacare funding is the leverage point in Congress, and what a two-phase farmer aid plan might look like. Markets absorbed a bearish stock surprise, China looms over soybean demand, and California greenlights E15 with a slow path to pumps.
• Senate rejects clean funding extension; Obamacare funding becomes leverage
• ECAP 14% paid; ARC/PLC paus...
We welcome agricultural economist David Widmar from AEI.ag to unpack why corn acres keep moving west, how the corn–soy “factory” expanded, and why interest cost is the creeper crushing margins. We break down median farm income myths, the scale of solar on farmland, and fresh headlines about a proposed $10B farm aid package.
• new collaboration with AEI.ag and how we met
• lessons from Escaping 1980 and bo...
Record-tight feeder supplies meet record-heavy carcass weights and a falling cutout, creating a tense setup where front-end inventories swell just as seasonal patterns should ease. We unpack the Mexico border closure, regional cash spreads, demand risk at record retail prices, and the surprise shift in futures positioning.
• impact of Mexican border closure on feeder supplies
• divergence between Southern...
We track Iowa’s move from a quiet August into a real selling season, where auction volume doubles and pricing barely flinches despite cheaper corn and higher costs. We dig into why equity-rich owners keep the floor firm, who’s under pressure, and how stimulus chatter could ripple through rents and bids.
• August to September shift in auction volume
• How more acres “test” price stability
• Mitchell Co...
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