August 29, 2025 • 23 mins
Today's episode includes an interview with climate specialist, Rick Thoman. Rick discusses the conditions that lead to an atmospheric river, La Nina winter predictions and also the importance of weather forecasts and radio coverage for Alaskans.
Rick Thoman, a climate specialist at IARC’s Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP). Rick is a contributor and editor of the Arctic Report Card and was also awarded NOAA Distinguished Career Award for Professional Achievement in 2020. Rick was honored after a 30 plus year career with the National Weather Service for continued efforts to improve climate services in Alaska and for outstanding outreach efforts working with the Alaska Native community. We are happy that he has not yet retired, as his wealth of information is an invaluable resource for communities all around Alaska. Thank you, Rick!
Rick Thoman has a very informative newsletter on Substack called: Alaska and Arctic Climate Newsletter. You can see illustrations, graphs and be informed of all things Alaska weather.
Talkeetna River at Alaska Railroad Bridge NOAA link:
https://water.noaa.gov/gauges/TKTA2
Thank you for tuning into the Alaska Climate & Aviation Podcast!
Also, I'm happy to announce my scenic flight seeing business, Visionary Adventures, LLC. "Cub Rides with Katie" offers scenic flights in a Piper Super Cub Airplane here in South Central Alaska. Message me if you wish to book a flight.
Katie Writer
ktphotowork@gmail.com
907/873-7669
You can visit my website for links to other episodes and see aerial photography of South Central Alaska at:
https://www.katiewritergallery.com
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_00 (00:00):
Well,
SPEAKER_01 (00:12):
good morning, Rick.
We've got Rick Thoman as ourguest today for the Alaska
Climate and Aviation Podcast.
How are you doing today, Rick?
SPEAKER_00 (00:20):
I'm doing great, Katie.
Thanks for having me on again.
SPEAKER_01 (00:23):
Oh, it's always wonderful to get a word from
Rick.
And we know that there is a lotgoing on in the weather with
this fall.
Right now in the south centralAlaska, when you look at the
weather report on the NationalWeather Service, there's a flood
warning.
And when you look at thesatellite image, there's the
atmospheric river coming in.
(00:44):
Tell us a little bit about whatyour perspective is on this
atmospheric river.
UNKNOWN (00:50):
Thank you.
SPEAKER_00 (00:51):
Yeah, so atmospheric rivers, it started out as a
jargon term within themeteorological community.
It's been around since the1990s.
But it's really, in the last 10years or so, really come into
public awareness, been picked upby the media, social media.
And there's good reason forthat, because atmospheric rivers
(01:16):
are an important mechanism fordelivering precipitation to many
parts of the world.
of the world, but especially thePacific coast of North America,
which includes Alaska.
However, I think it's fair tosay that atmospheric river,
perhaps like the polar vortex,is one of those terms that many
people have heard, but don'treally have a good idea of what
(01:40):
it actually means.
And so from the meteorologicalperspective, an atmospheric
river is just typically a verynarrow but elongated area with
very high moisture and winds sothat that high moisture is being
(02:00):
moved along rapidly.
So we're talking large scalehere.
Atmospheric rivers are typicallythousands of miles along.
They typically originate overthe oceanic areas.
And they are really importantbecause basically they are
moving moisture and heat fromlower lattice to higher
(02:22):
latitudes.
So if you think of the kind ofthe classic Pineapple Express
for California, you know, youcan see on the satellite
pictures this area of enhancedclouds extending from near the
Hawaiian Islands all the way tothe California coast.
So that's that northwardmovement of that moisture and
(02:42):
that subtropical air.
Same thing, of course, happensin Alaska.
Atmospheric rivers are a majorsource of extreme precipitation
for southeast Alaska.
They have been the causativeweather features for some of the
terrible, tragic landslides thatwe've had in Alaska in the last
(03:04):
five years.
But they are also important foractually most of the state, with
maybe the exception of the NorthSlope, because Alaska is really
just one big fat peninsula innorthwest North America.
So even areas that we think ofinland, like Talkeetna, like
(03:25):
interior Alaska, we're actuallynot that far away from
saltwater.
And so we see these regularly,these atmospheric rivers
regularly produce very highprecipitation levels.
often with high impacts.
So just this week, we have hadat least three different
(03:49):
atmospheric rivers impactAlaska.
The first one impacted northerninterior into the Fairbanks
area, producing in Fairbanks thehighest August rainstorm in six
years since 2019, brought somerivers up close to flood stage.
(04:10):
Another atmospheric riverimpacted western Alaska,
produced in some areas rainfallamounts that are in that, you
know, the famous one in ahundred year level.
And now the most recentatmospheric river really hitting
south central.
Some places like Halkitna, upperSusitna Valley, have gotten a
(04:32):
lot of rain out of this.
Other places like the immediateAnchorage area got some rain,
but also a lot of wind.
And that's the result of thatvery moist, very warm air coming
across the mountains anddownsloping.
So a whole variety of weather.
(04:53):
Now, the situation this weekactually has been quite
interesting in the sense thatmuch of the state has gotten
significant rain from theseatmospheric rivers.
But the place that you expectedto be rainy at the end of
August, southeast, is enjoyingday after day of sunshine.
And in some place there'sactually been the temperatures
(05:13):
of the entire summer have beenthis week in southeast
SPEAKER_01 (05:17):
oh gosh well those people are lucky to get a little
bit of that sunshine before uhthe upcoming fall turns into
winter pretty quickly aroundhere so good for them they
deserve that sunshine well it'snice that you've uh you
mentioned the pineapple expressi see you've got your hawaiian
shirt on today for fridays inthe office
SPEAKER_00 (05:38):
yep absolutely
SPEAKER_01 (05:38):
that's good to keep keep a smile on your face And
yeah, we're the look of, youknow, this is what we have.
We have a lot of rain justsitting here in Talkeetna.
There's been gusty winds,definitely some branches here
and there.
And I walked down to our localriver here at the Talkeetna
River and it's bank full.
(05:59):
Yeah,
SPEAKER_00 (06:00):
there's certainly been a lot of rain.
And when we get these highamounts of rain in relatively
short times, 12 to 24 hours,that the atmospheric rivers
deliver, that's, of course, arecipe for big rises on rivers
because the ground gets rapidlysaturated and you got a lot of
rain running into the rivers inshort order.
SPEAKER_01 (06:21):
Yeah.
Well, you said, you know, herewe have smack dab in the middle
of hunting season.
And so there's a lot of...
People out hunting, and I'm surethey're getting their camps up,
and it's not really flyable.
So people are hunkering down.
When would you expect thissystem to taper off?
SPEAKER_00 (06:41):
Well, that is a good question.
So the third of our atmosphericrivers is moving out as we speak
here on Friday.
But we may not be done,especially in the western half
of the state.
Looks like we've got anotherround of at least some
storminess, maybe anotheratmospheric river farther to the
(07:05):
east.
We've got a couple of cool daysgone up here, but then the warm
air is going to return.
So hopefully things overall aregoing to improve at least by
late in the weekend and earlynext week.
But certainly we're at that timeof year.
It's getting dark again atnight, and so the atmosphere is
cooling off.
And with all this rain, thatmeans there's a lot of low-level
(07:27):
moisture around.
So we're at the time of year, ofcourse, where even if the
large-scale weather is good, itcan certainly be foggy in
overnight hours and right intothe morning.
So it can limit the amount oftime, for instance, that folks
can fly.
SPEAKER_01 (07:41):
Yeah, well, it sounds a lot like Alaska,
doesn't it?
SPEAKER_00 (07:46):
Sounds like autumn in Alaska,
SPEAKER_01 (07:48):
absolutely.
Yeah.
Well, for thinking forwardthinking, I noticed there's some
talk about a La Nina winter.
Do you want to talk a little bitabout that?
SPEAKER_00 (08:00):
Sure.
So last year, we had kind of adud La Nina winter.
It tried and actually did meetthe criteria for La Nina for
just a couple of months, and itwas very weak.
And so we're going to try againthis winter, or the ocean
atmosphere is going to try againthis winter.
(08:21):
The forecast from the ClimatePrediction Center is for this
also to be a short-lived andweak La Nina event.
Now, remember, La Nina is reallyan enhancement of the typical
trade winds and and thunderstormpatterns in the equatorial
(08:45):
Pacific, whereas El Nino is kindof a reversal of that.
So La Nina is just kind of thePacific tropical atmosphere
boosted up a little bit.
Now, the definition of La Ninais in a region close to the
equator, south and southeast ofHawaii, to have the average sea
(09:08):
surface temperature at least ahalf a degree below normal.
And of course, a very commonquestion is how can a sea
surface temperature half adegree below normal, a thousand
miles southeast of Hawaii, howcan that possibly affect our
weather?
Great question.
And the answer is that thatlittle tiny temperature
difference doesn't affect ourweather.
(09:29):
But it does affect where thosebig giant tropical thunderstorms
along the equator form and aresustained.
And it's through those bigtropical thunderstorms which in
turn affect the jet streamfarther north, that's the
connection to our weather.
(09:49):
It's how those big thunderstormsare modified, where they
persist, where they don'tpersist, and they in turn affect
the winds aloft much farthernorth and can put their imprint
on the seasonal scale weatherpattern.
SPEAKER_01 (10:06):
Okay, well, that's a good explanation there.
And people are looking at...
you know, how to prepare for thewinter mentally.
And so it's good to have thatlittle tip.
So it's not certain thatthere'll be a lot of snowfall,
but those La Niñas can provide alot of moisture.
And if the temperatures are lowenough, it's snow.
(10:26):
And if the temperatures arewarmer, then it's rain.
SPEAKER_00 (10:30):
Yeah.
And, you know, we had this weakLa Nina last year.
And of course, especially inSouth Central, in some places
there was like no snow or hardlyany snow, at least during the
core winter.
But really, last winter wasreally interesting from the
climate perspective in the sensethat low elevation.
(10:52):
So let's say low elevationAnchorage had very little snow,
no measurable snow on the groundthe entire month of February.
First time that's ever happen.
But you go up, 2,000 feet inelevation on the hillside, there
was plenty of snow.
And that's a different scenariothan we saw, say, during the
(11:12):
2015-16 winter when there wasvery little snow in urban
Anchorage, but there was alsovery little snow in the
mountains, just didn'tprecipitate.
Last winter, it wasn't a matterof we didn't have the
precipitation.
It was that at low elevations,it was just warm enough that it
was rain.
Saw the same thing in theTalkeetna Mountains as well with
(11:35):
much relative to normal, muchcloser to normal or even above
normal snowpack at higherelevation near or below normal
snowpack at the low elevations.
And that's a function oftemperature when that
precipitation falls.
Could that happen again thisyear?
Sure, it could, especially witha weak La Nina.
(11:58):
It really is only a weak push tothe weather system.
odds are, given that, forinstance, Anchorage has not had
a February with every day withno measurable snow on the
ground, that's unlikely to berepeated just because it's a
rare event and everything wouldhave to come together in much
(12:19):
the same way that the twowinters before both featured big
snowstorms.
That's just the variation of theweather.
A lot of pieces have to cometogether all at the same time in
the right sequence and the righttiming to get either big
snowstorms or no snowstorms.
SPEAKER_01 (12:40):
A lot of it is looking out the window that day
and see what happens, and thereyou go.
But we have a real reliance onweather services, and I
understand that with our budgetcuts in the national weather
system, it's put a lot of peoplejobs feeling vicariously on
edge.
(13:01):
Tell us a little bit about, youknow, as a longtime weather
person like yourself, yourrelationships with some of the
rural areas in Alaska throughoutthe state on how this impacts
these communities.
In addition to the radio cutswith, you know, the ability for
weathermen to be able to talk tojournalists to get warnings out
(13:24):
for people and how these budgetcuts impacted these communities
in Alaska, maybe more than otherparts of the nation.
SPEAKER_00 (13:34):
Well, I think, Katie, that here in Alaska,
what's the saying?
Weather is not small talk inAlaska.
Weather matters.
It matters for our lives, ourlivelihoods, and in more cases
than I think in the lower 48,weather involves health, safety,
(13:59):
life, and death decisions.
So the services, the informationcritical for Alaskans, from big
business to individuals.
And having the loss of weatherservices, the estimate is about
(14:21):
10% of the people that wereemployed by the weather service
in Alaska in January have left.
And while the weather service isis now attempting to rehire and
fill some of the vacancies thatwere created, whether through
voluntary departures orinvoluntary departures.
(14:45):
That hasn't happened yet.
So we have a lot fewer peoplewithin the National Weather
Service being able to provideservices.
The Fairbanks office just endedpart-time operations.
They've gone back to 24 hours aday, but they were reduced to no
(15:06):
overnight shift most of thesummer.
Fairbanks had been a 24-hourday, seven-day-a-week forecast
office from the early 1970suntil the summer, and that was
entirely a staffing issue.
It simply didn't have the numberof human beings on staff to do
it.
And so Fairbanks, for instance,has forecast responsibility for
(15:26):
the entire state north of theAlaska Range and out to western
Alaska, including the entireYukon Delta and everywhere north
of there.
So a large area, forecasts werebeing sent out from the
Anchorage office, so thoseforecasts were there, but you
didn't have people withexperience in the regional
(15:48):
weather, in the regionalspecifics, working those
forecasts.
At the same time, as youmentioned, the threat to radio
in rural Alaska is really anexistential threat.
Unlike Anchorage, unlikeFairbanks, as well as, of
(16:09):
course, most places in the lower48, in rural Alaska, generally,
there is no other option.
If your public radio stationgoes away, you have no radio
because you've got a choice ofone.
Some communities like Nome arelucky to have two, but if that
(16:30):
programming or the stations evenhave to go off the air, that
would be a major impact.
And as we're seeing already,maybe they don't go off the air
completely.
Maybe they don't.
Maybe they're closed overnight.
And okay, weather doesn't workon a clock, right?
Warnings go out at 3 a.m.
if there's no radio station toget that out.
(16:51):
How are you going to get thatgiven the difficulty and
frequent unreliability of thingslike cell service in rural
Alaska?
So There's a lot, a lot ofnegative impacts to really
helping people be safe and to beefficient in their day-to-day
(17:14):
lives.
And I hope that we can find away to get back some of this so
that Alaskans have access to thebest information in making
decisions.
SPEAKER_01 (17:27):
Well said, Rick.
That really does summarize theincredible dependence on radio.
And people have so much moreexposure here in Alaska.
And we are really grateful foryou and all your expertise that
you share.
And also, a lot of journalistsare going to different resources
(17:51):
of ways to get information out,such as, you know, even my
podcast, Alaska Climate andAviation Podcast.
More journalists are popping upways in newsletters.
For example, your newsletter.
Do you want to tell ourlisteners about how they can
learn how to get in tune to yournewsletter, how they can
subscribe to it?
SPEAKER_00 (18:14):
Sure.
So I write the Alaska and ArcticClimate Newsletter.
And this is, it's completelyfree It is on Substack and so
anyone can subscribe to it andit won't cost you a dime.
And I try to provide a mix ofwhat's happening now in Alaska
(18:35):
and the Arctic.
So some of the posts are, youknow, kind of a larger scale,
but focused on the Arctic.
Some of them are specific toAlaska.
My most recent one was about theimportance of atmospheric rivers
to mainland Alaska, as we'veseen this week.
Of course, that's what promptedthat.
So it's completely free.
(18:56):
There's usually put out one aweek or a little less.
And so if folks are interestedin keeping abreast of what's
happening at the monthly toseasonal scale in Alaska and the
Arctic, as well as varioustopics related to particularly
(19:17):
climate, it's not a weatherforecast service, but rather a
climate scale focus.
And so if you're interested inthings like long-term trends or
just keeping up on themonth-to-month, season-to-season
weather, it's a free and easyresource that I hope is written
in a way that people, withoutbeing experts, can get the
(19:42):
information they need.
Always have lots of graphics inthere.
And so I appreciate feedback onthose.
And if folks are interested,allow and Arctic climate
newsletter on Substack.
SPEAKER_01 (19:55):
Great.
Well, I'll put the link in onthe written portion of the
podcast so people can just clickon that link and sign up.
I enjoy your newslettersgreatly.
And another continual long-timeproject that you have done is
the Arctic Report Card.
Do you have any comments aboutwhat's going to be coming up
(20:16):
with this year's report card?
SPEAKER_00 (20:18):
Yeah.
So, yes, I I have been actuallya contributor, an author for the
Arctic Report Card for a decadenow, and I've been one of the
general editors of the ReportCard.
This will be the sixth year I'veserved in that role.
And, of course, the ArcticReport Card is basically
(20:38):
supported by NOAA, although itis not a report on NOAA
activities in the Arctic.
Obviously, we had some concerns.
Would we be able to do thereport?
card this year?
And the answer I'm happy to sayis yes.
This will be the 20th edition ofthe Arctic Report card.
First one came out in 2006.
(21:00):
So this will be number 20, comeout every year.
And so we've got several funextras for this year where
there's a photo contest underwayright now.
So you can win your 15 minutesof fame and fortune with that.
And we'll have our usual reviewof what's happened in the last
(21:25):
year in the Arctic, both fromthe physical science side, so
the usual things like how havetemperatures been in the past
year, sea ice, oceantemperatures, as well as a
couple of contributions onfisheries.
In Alaska, I think that will bea high interest one.
(21:45):
And we've also got acontribution coming from from
the Indigenous Sentinels Networkbased out of the Pribilof
Islands, which will be, I think,another very high-interest topic
for folks, especially in Alaska,on the work that the network is
(22:06):
doing.
SPEAKER_01 (22:07):
Fantastic.
Well, we've really appreciatedall the past episodes that we've
done every year on the ArcticReport Card, so I'll tell our
listeners we'll definitely behaving another one set up for
this January for seeing what'sbeen going on in the state and
also all around the Arcticcountries.
(22:29):
Well, very good, Rick.
Well, this has been a wonderfultime to catch up with you and
hear about the going on and hearabout your newsletter as well as
knowing that there will be anArctic Report card.
And we so appreciate yourdedication as being the voice of
weather here in Alaska.
And we wish you a wonderful restof your weekend.
SPEAKER_00 (22:50):
Great.
Thanks very much, Katie.
And stay dry.
SPEAKER_01 (22:56):
And that concludes today's episode of the Alaska
Climate and Aviation Podcast.
I'm Katie Ryder.
Today is August 29th.
Wishing you all a happy Fridayand happy Labor Day weekend.
Well,
SPEAKER_01 (00:12):
good morning, Rick.
We've got Rick Thoman as ourguest today for the Alaska
Climate and Aviation Podcast.
How are you doing today, Rick?
SPEAKER_00 (00:20):
I'm doing great, Katie.
Thanks for having me on again.
SPEAKER_01 (00:23):
Oh, it's always wonderful to get a word from
Rick.
And we know that there is a lotgoing on in the weather with
this fall.
Right now in the south centralAlaska, when you look at the
weather report on the NationalWeather Service, there's a flood
warning.
And when you look at thesatellite image, there's the
atmospheric river coming in.
(00:44):
Tell us a little bit about whatyour perspective is on this
atmospheric river.
UNKNOWN (00:50):
Thank you.
SPEAKER_00 (00:51):
Yeah, so atmospheric rivers, it started out as a
jargon term within themeteorological community.
It's been around since the1990s.
But it's really, in the last 10years or so, really come into
public awareness, been picked upby the media, social media.
And there's good reason forthat, because atmospheric rivers
(01:16):
are an important mechanism fordelivering precipitation to many
parts of the world.
of the world, but especially thePacific coast of North America,
which includes Alaska.
However, I think it's fair tosay that atmospheric river,
perhaps like the polar vortex,is one of those terms that many
people have heard, but don'treally have a good idea of what
(01:40):
it actually means.
And so from the meteorologicalperspective, an atmospheric
river is just typically a verynarrow but elongated area with
very high moisture and winds sothat that high moisture is being
(02:00):
moved along rapidly.
So we're talking large scalehere.
Atmospheric rivers are typicallythousands of miles along.
They typically originate overthe oceanic areas.
And they are really importantbecause basically they are
moving moisture and heat fromlower lattice to higher
(02:22):
latitudes.
So if you think of the kind ofthe classic Pineapple Express
for California, you know, youcan see on the satellite
pictures this area of enhancedclouds extending from near the
Hawaiian Islands all the way tothe California coast.
So that's that northwardmovement of that moisture and
(02:42):
that subtropical air.
Same thing, of course, happensin Alaska.
Atmospheric rivers are a majorsource of extreme precipitation
for southeast Alaska.
They have been the causativeweather features for some of the
terrible, tragic landslides thatwe've had in Alaska in the last
(03:04):
five years.
But they are also important foractually most of the state, with
maybe the exception of the NorthSlope, because Alaska is really
just one big fat peninsula innorthwest North America.
So even areas that we think ofinland, like Talkeetna, like
(03:25):
interior Alaska, we're actuallynot that far away from
saltwater.
And so we see these regularly,these atmospheric rivers
regularly produce very highprecipitation levels.
often with high impacts.
So just this week, we have hadat least three different
(03:49):
atmospheric rivers impactAlaska.
The first one impacted northerninterior into the Fairbanks
area, producing in Fairbanks thehighest August rainstorm in six
years since 2019, brought somerivers up close to flood stage.
(04:10):
Another atmospheric riverimpacted western Alaska,
produced in some areas rainfallamounts that are in that, you
know, the famous one in ahundred year level.
And now the most recentatmospheric river really hitting
south central.
Some places like Halkitna, upperSusitna Valley, have gotten a
(04:32):
lot of rain out of this.
Other places like the immediateAnchorage area got some rain,
but also a lot of wind.
And that's the result of thatvery moist, very warm air coming
across the mountains anddownsloping.
So a whole variety of weather.
(04:53):
Now, the situation this weekactually has been quite
interesting in the sense thatmuch of the state has gotten
significant rain from theseatmospheric rivers.
But the place that you expectedto be rainy at the end of
August, southeast, is enjoyingday after day of sunshine.
And in some place there'sactually been the temperatures
(05:13):
of the entire summer have beenthis week in southeast
SPEAKER_01 (05:17):
oh gosh well those people are lucky to get a little
bit of that sunshine before uhthe upcoming fall turns into
winter pretty quickly aroundhere so good for them they
deserve that sunshine well it'snice that you've uh you
mentioned the pineapple expressi see you've got your hawaiian
shirt on today for fridays inthe office
SPEAKER_00 (05:38):
yep absolutely
SPEAKER_01 (05:38):
that's good to keep keep a smile on your face And
yeah, we're the look of, youknow, this is what we have.
We have a lot of rain justsitting here in Talkeetna.
There's been gusty winds,definitely some branches here
and there.
And I walked down to our localriver here at the Talkeetna
River and it's bank full.
(05:59):
Yeah,
SPEAKER_00 (06:00):
there's certainly been a lot of rain.
And when we get these highamounts of rain in relatively
short times, 12 to 24 hours,that the atmospheric rivers
deliver, that's, of course, arecipe for big rises on rivers
because the ground gets rapidlysaturated and you got a lot of
rain running into the rivers inshort order.
SPEAKER_01 (06:21):
Yeah.
Well, you said, you know, herewe have smack dab in the middle
of hunting season.
And so there's a lot of...
People out hunting, and I'm surethey're getting their camps up,
and it's not really flyable.
So people are hunkering down.
When would you expect thissystem to taper off?
SPEAKER_00 (06:41):
Well, that is a good question.
So the third of our atmosphericrivers is moving out as we speak
here on Friday.
But we may not be done,especially in the western half
of the state.
Looks like we've got anotherround of at least some
storminess, maybe anotheratmospheric river farther to the
(07:05):
east.
We've got a couple of cool daysgone up here, but then the warm
air is going to return.
So hopefully things overall aregoing to improve at least by
late in the weekend and earlynext week.
But certainly we're at that timeof year.
It's getting dark again atnight, and so the atmosphere is
cooling off.
And with all this rain, thatmeans there's a lot of low-level
(07:27):
moisture around.
So we're at the time of year, ofcourse, where even if the
large-scale weather is good, itcan certainly be foggy in
overnight hours and right intothe morning.
So it can limit the amount oftime, for instance, that folks
can fly.
SPEAKER_01 (07:41):
Yeah, well, it sounds a lot like Alaska,
doesn't it?
SPEAKER_00 (07:46):
Sounds like autumn in Alaska,
SPEAKER_01 (07:48):
absolutely.
Yeah.
Well, for thinking forwardthinking, I noticed there's some
talk about a La Nina winter.
Do you want to talk a little bitabout that?
SPEAKER_00 (08:00):
Sure.
So last year, we had kind of adud La Nina winter.
It tried and actually did meetthe criteria for La Nina for
just a couple of months, and itwas very weak.
And so we're going to try againthis winter, or the ocean
atmosphere is going to try againthis winter.
(08:21):
The forecast from the ClimatePrediction Center is for this
also to be a short-lived andweak La Nina event.
Now, remember, La Nina is reallyan enhancement of the typical
trade winds and and thunderstormpatterns in the equatorial
(08:45):
Pacific, whereas El Nino is kindof a reversal of that.
So La Nina is just kind of thePacific tropical atmosphere
boosted up a little bit.
Now, the definition of La Ninais in a region close to the
equator, south and southeast ofHawaii, to have the average sea
(09:08):
surface temperature at least ahalf a degree below normal.
And of course, a very commonquestion is how can a sea
surface temperature half adegree below normal, a thousand
miles southeast of Hawaii, howcan that possibly affect our
weather?
Great question.
And the answer is that thatlittle tiny temperature
difference doesn't affect ourweather.
(09:29):
But it does affect where thosebig giant tropical thunderstorms
along the equator form and aresustained.
And it's through those bigtropical thunderstorms which in
turn affect the jet streamfarther north, that's the
connection to our weather.
(09:49):
It's how those big thunderstormsare modified, where they
persist, where they don'tpersist, and they in turn affect
the winds aloft much farthernorth and can put their imprint
on the seasonal scale weatherpattern.
SPEAKER_01 (10:06):
Okay, well, that's a good explanation there.
And people are looking at...
you know, how to prepare for thewinter mentally.
And so it's good to have thatlittle tip.
So it's not certain thatthere'll be a lot of snowfall,
but those La Niñas can provide alot of moisture.
And if the temperatures are lowenough, it's snow.
(10:26):
And if the temperatures arewarmer, then it's rain.
SPEAKER_00 (10:30):
Yeah.
And, you know, we had this weakLa Nina last year.
And of course, especially inSouth Central, in some places
there was like no snow or hardlyany snow, at least during the
core winter.
But really, last winter wasreally interesting from the
climate perspective in the sensethat low elevation.
(10:52):
So let's say low elevationAnchorage had very little snow,
no measurable snow on the groundthe entire month of February.
First time that's ever happen.
But you go up, 2,000 feet inelevation on the hillside, there
was plenty of snow.
And that's a different scenariothan we saw, say, during the
(11:12):
2015-16 winter when there wasvery little snow in urban
Anchorage, but there was alsovery little snow in the
mountains, just didn'tprecipitate.
Last winter, it wasn't a matterof we didn't have the
precipitation.
It was that at low elevations,it was just warm enough that it
was rain.
Saw the same thing in theTalkeetna Mountains as well with
(11:35):
much relative to normal, muchcloser to normal or even above
normal snowpack at higherelevation near or below normal
snowpack at the low elevations.
And that's a function oftemperature when that
precipitation falls.
Could that happen again thisyear?
Sure, it could, especially witha weak La Nina.
(11:58):
It really is only a weak push tothe weather system.
odds are, given that, forinstance, Anchorage has not had
a February with every day withno measurable snow on the
ground, that's unlikely to berepeated just because it's a
rare event and everything wouldhave to come together in much
(12:19):
the same way that the twowinters before both featured big
snowstorms.
That's just the variation of theweather.
A lot of pieces have to cometogether all at the same time in
the right sequence and the righttiming to get either big
snowstorms or no snowstorms.
SPEAKER_01 (12:40):
A lot of it is looking out the window that day
and see what happens, and thereyou go.
But we have a real reliance onweather services, and I
understand that with our budgetcuts in the national weather
system, it's put a lot of peoplejobs feeling vicariously on
edge.
(13:01):
Tell us a little bit about, youknow, as a longtime weather
person like yourself, yourrelationships with some of the
rural areas in Alaska throughoutthe state on how this impacts
these communities.
In addition to the radio cutswith, you know, the ability for
weathermen to be able to talk tojournalists to get warnings out
(13:24):
for people and how these budgetcuts impacted these communities
in Alaska, maybe more than otherparts of the nation.
SPEAKER_00 (13:34):
Well, I think, Katie, that here in Alaska,
what's the saying?
Weather is not small talk inAlaska.
Weather matters.
It matters for our lives, ourlivelihoods, and in more cases
than I think in the lower 48,weather involves health, safety,
(13:59):
life, and death decisions.
So the services, the informationcritical for Alaskans, from big
business to individuals.
And having the loss of weatherservices, the estimate is about
(14:21):
10% of the people that wereemployed by the weather service
in Alaska in January have left.
And while the weather service isis now attempting to rehire and
fill some of the vacancies thatwere created, whether through
voluntary departures orinvoluntary departures.
(14:45):
That hasn't happened yet.
So we have a lot fewer peoplewithin the National Weather
Service being able to provideservices.
The Fairbanks office just endedpart-time operations.
They've gone back to 24 hours aday, but they were reduced to no
(15:06):
overnight shift most of thesummer.
Fairbanks had been a 24-hourday, seven-day-a-week forecast
office from the early 1970suntil the summer, and that was
entirely a staffing issue.
It simply didn't have the numberof human beings on staff to do
it.
And so Fairbanks, for instance,has forecast responsibility for
(15:26):
the entire state north of theAlaska Range and out to western
Alaska, including the entireYukon Delta and everywhere north
of there.
So a large area, forecasts werebeing sent out from the
Anchorage office, so thoseforecasts were there, but you
didn't have people withexperience in the regional
(15:48):
weather, in the regionalspecifics, working those
forecasts.
At the same time, as youmentioned, the threat to radio
in rural Alaska is really anexistential threat.
Unlike Anchorage, unlikeFairbanks, as well as, of
(16:09):
course, most places in the lower48, in rural Alaska, generally,
there is no other option.
If your public radio stationgoes away, you have no radio
because you've got a choice ofone.
Some communities like Nome arelucky to have two, but if that
(16:30):
programming or the stations evenhave to go off the air, that
would be a major impact.
And as we're seeing already,maybe they don't go off the air
completely.
Maybe they don't.
Maybe they're closed overnight.
And okay, weather doesn't workon a clock, right?
Warnings go out at 3 a.m.
if there's no radio station toget that out.
(16:51):
How are you going to get thatgiven the difficulty and
frequent unreliability of thingslike cell service in rural
Alaska?
So There's a lot, a lot ofnegative impacts to really
helping people be safe and to beefficient in their day-to-day
(17:14):
lives.
And I hope that we can find away to get back some of this so
that Alaskans have access to thebest information in making
decisions.
SPEAKER_01 (17:27):
Well said, Rick.
That really does summarize theincredible dependence on radio.
And people have so much moreexposure here in Alaska.
And we are really grateful foryou and all your expertise that
you share.
And also, a lot of journalistsare going to different resources
(17:51):
of ways to get information out,such as, you know, even my
podcast, Alaska Climate andAviation Podcast.
More journalists are popping upways in newsletters.
For example, your newsletter.
Do you want to tell ourlisteners about how they can
learn how to get in tune to yournewsletter, how they can
subscribe to it?
SPEAKER_00 (18:14):
Sure.
So I write the Alaska and ArcticClimate Newsletter.
And this is, it's completelyfree It is on Substack and so
anyone can subscribe to it andit won't cost you a dime.
And I try to provide a mix ofwhat's happening now in Alaska
(18:35):
and the Arctic.
So some of the posts are, youknow, kind of a larger scale,
but focused on the Arctic.
Some of them are specific toAlaska.
My most recent one was about theimportance of atmospheric rivers
to mainland Alaska, as we'veseen this week.
Of course, that's what promptedthat.
So it's completely free.
(18:56):
There's usually put out one aweek or a little less.
And so if folks are interestedin keeping abreast of what's
happening at the monthly toseasonal scale in Alaska and the
Arctic, as well as varioustopics related to particularly
(19:17):
climate, it's not a weatherforecast service, but rather a
climate scale focus.
And so if you're interested inthings like long-term trends or
just keeping up on themonth-to-month, season-to-season
weather, it's a free and easyresource that I hope is written
in a way that people, withoutbeing experts, can get the
(19:42):
information they need.
Always have lots of graphics inthere.
And so I appreciate feedback onthose.
And if folks are interested,allow and Arctic climate
newsletter on Substack.
SPEAKER_01 (19:55):
Great.
Well, I'll put the link in onthe written portion of the
podcast so people can just clickon that link and sign up.
I enjoy your newslettersgreatly.
And another continual long-timeproject that you have done is
the Arctic Report Card.
Do you have any comments aboutwhat's going to be coming up
(20:16):
with this year's report card?
SPEAKER_00 (20:18):
Yeah.
So, yes, I I have been actuallya contributor, an author for the
Arctic Report Card for a decadenow, and I've been one of the
general editors of the ReportCard.
This will be the sixth year I'veserved in that role.
And, of course, the ArcticReport Card is basically
(20:38):
supported by NOAA, although itis not a report on NOAA
activities in the Arctic.
Obviously, we had some concerns.
Would we be able to do thereport?
card this year?
And the answer I'm happy to sayis yes.
This will be the 20th edition ofthe Arctic Report card.
First one came out in 2006.
(21:00):
So this will be number 20, comeout every year.
And so we've got several funextras for this year where
there's a photo contest underwayright now.
So you can win your 15 minutesof fame and fortune with that.
And we'll have our usual reviewof what's happened in the last
(21:25):
year in the Arctic, both fromthe physical science side, so
the usual things like how havetemperatures been in the past
year, sea ice, oceantemperatures, as well as a
couple of contributions onfisheries.
In Alaska, I think that will bea high interest one.
(21:45):
And we've also got acontribution coming from from
the Indigenous Sentinels Networkbased out of the Pribilof
Islands, which will be, I think,another very high-interest topic
for folks, especially in Alaska,on the work that the network is
(22:06):
doing.
SPEAKER_01 (22:07):
Fantastic.
Well, we've really appreciatedall the past episodes that we've
done every year on the ArcticReport Card, so I'll tell our
listeners we'll definitely behaving another one set up for
this January for seeing what'sbeen going on in the state and
also all around the Arcticcountries.
(22:29):
Well, very good, Rick.
Well, this has been a wonderfultime to catch up with you and
hear about the going on and hearabout your newsletter as well as
knowing that there will be anArctic Report card.
And we so appreciate yourdedication as being the voice of
weather here in Alaska.
And we wish you a wonderful restof your weekend.
SPEAKER_00 (22:50):
Great.
Thanks very much, Katie.
And stay dry.
SPEAKER_01 (22:56):
And that concludes today's episode of the Alaska
Climate and Aviation Podcast.
I'm Katie Ryder.
Today is August 29th.
Wishing you all a happy Fridayand happy Labor Day weekend.
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