December 2, 2024 • 27 mins
In Episode 173, Josh dishes out a 3-pack of sweats for Monday, with a pair of bets for Monday Night Football (side and player prop) plus a College Basketball moneyline.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:18):
Hello, and welcome to episode 173 of the All Systems Go sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Monday, a new week begins,a new month begins as we flip
(00:39):
the page from November to December, final month of the
year. Hope everyone had a great
Thanksgiving. It's been a while since I last
was able to host a pod and and breakdown some sharp games with
you guys. But now we turn the page to
December. We got bowl games coming up,
holiday season. I don't know if anyone's one of
those, you know, crazy people gets your Christmas tree super
early. But if we're getting to that
(01:00):
point of the year as well, and hopefully we can end the year
2024 on a hot note before we bring in the new year of 2025.
But between now and then, we gota lot of games to talk about.
We got a lot of bets hopefully to cash in the month of
December. Now looking toward today, guys,
I got a three pack of sweats foryou.
So you guys know the drill. 3 plays, let's try to get two of
them, go 2 and one eke out a winning day.
(01:21):
It's kind of a smaller than usual slate.
Could have maybe added a better 2, but didn't want to force it.
But I have two plays on Monday Night Football.
We got the Cleveland Browns and we have the Denver Broncos.
I got to play on the side as well as a player prop and then I
got one bet in college basketball.
It is a added game, extra game, sharp obscure line move, which
hopefully will come through for us tonight.
(01:41):
So a three pack. Let's try to get two out of
three now. I buried the lead, but it's been
a while. Haven't haven't had a pod since
Thanksgiving Eve. And I do apologize because I
think I told you guys I would doa pod on Friday but didn't put
one out. I was back home with the family
and we actually went on a hike up the woods and couldn't
really, you know, tell everybody, hey, I got to go to a
podcast like, hey, it's the day after Thanksgiving, you know,
(02:03):
it'll be all right. So I do apologize.
Trend, who was looking forward or toward a pod on Friday.
But anyway, since we last talked, we've been pretty good
here, guys, back on Wednesday, if you remember, four and oh,
bust out the brooms plus 2.67 units.
That was the night where he wentthree and O in college hoops
with Michigan getting it done, the unranked versus ranked
Richmond and Loyola. Miramount also had the Wild in
(02:25):
the NHL Thursday as we were, as I was mentioning here and I kind
of alluded to maybe it was the good mojo from the gambling
gods, but me and my dad sweat Miami Green Bay under 47 1/2 and
it looked dicey midway through the third quarter.
My dad said, oh, I told him to play before the game started so
he was rooting with me but he said oh, doesn't look good Josh.
(02:46):
Luckily the gambling God smiled upon us landed on 47 so that was
great to cash. I did add the Cowboys on the
money line. I don't know if anyone played
that one on Thursday. I do want to mention that of
course, moving forward, all the all systems go best bets are
located on Juice Reel. So you can just go to the social
tab, go to find juicers and search at just search ASG under
(03:08):
score podcast or I'm putting that link in all the podcast
moving forward. I'm tweeting about it each day.
But if there are any additional plays, you can always find them
on the ASG Pod page on the JuiceTrail app.
Friday one and one ECU lost the Navy.
I like ECU in that spot. They just didn't score at all.
San Jose State did come through,so went one and one.
Saturday, 1:00 and 2:00, we got Fresno State covering kicking a
(03:31):
field goal late to lose by 7 1/2or to lose by 7 and cover the
seven and a half. K State, though, and Texas A&M
in particular, like A&M, got a 51/2 close to four and a half and
they had a goal line opportunityto score and backdoor cover four
chances. Brick Wall couldn't score.
So A&M kind of a pathetic performance, but a good Sunday.
Yesterday, 3 and 1 + 1.55 units had the Jaguars, they were late
(03:55):
addition to me. They kept getting steamed and I
said, hey, I got to play this one.
Shout out to Mac Jones for covering that number late.
They're down 23 to 6 scored two touchdowns, 2 point conversion
covered that number. Seattle money line got nervous
because that one went away from us a little bit late, but we
stayed with our original bet dance with the one who brung
you. Seattle came through in a
comeback victory and then Carolina plus six thought they'd
(04:18):
win that one outright. Then I thought they wouldn't
cover. Luckily, they lose by three and
OT we cover the number. The only bet the lost was
Tennessee. Remind me to never bet the
Titans again. I feel like I'm like oh and five
betting the Titans this year. So what are you going to do?
But either way, guys, we're still cashing some tickets here,
so that is a good sign as we steam into Monday Night Football
O. As I mentioned, 2 lays one Night
(04:38):
Football, 1 lay in college hoopsand then we'll get out of here.
But with that being said, let's go right to the final game of
Week 13. Can you believe we're almost at
Week 14 now And boys, the seasonflying by, but Cleveland Browns,
Denver Broncos, I'll give you the breakdown.
I'll give you my play on the side player prop and then talk a
little bit about the total, but kind of a tough angle or tough,
(04:59):
tough total, tough nut to crack it, whatever, you know, I don't
know whatever analogy you want to use there.
I don't want to play this total,but I do want to play the side
and a prop. So setting the stage here 8:15
tonight, ESPN. The Browns come in three and
eight. Remember they just snapped A2
game losing skid, winning 24 to 19 over the Steelers on Thursday
Night Football last week or a while ago at this point.
(05:21):
They went out right as a 3 1/2 point home dog.
Remember they cover that number for us.
But brutal bad beat on the underwe played.
I remember that one. But the Broncos seven and five.
They've had a Goodyear with bring in Bo Knicks looks like
he's legit. Sean Payton good coach as well.
But they're seven and five. They've won two straight.
Just took down the Raiders 29 to19, covering as a six point Rd.
(05:41):
favorite. So what have we seen across the
market here? Well, this line's kind of been
all over the place. The early look headline was
Broncos as high as -7 1/2 at home.
Then obviously when Cleveland had the big win over the
Steelers, we saw this line get all the way down adjustment or
adjusted downward to Denver -5 1/2.
Then when it bottomed out at -5 1/2, we started to see it tick
(06:04):
back up. So now we're seeing the Broncos
on game day back up to -6 -, 6 1/2.
So it fell a lot. It came back up.
You know, you're somewhat close to where that look headline was.
Now, even though the the number has kind of, you know, jockeyed
back and forth, One thing that hasn't changed is the public's
perception of this game. Public is all over the Broncos.
(06:25):
I get it. Cleveland, bad record.
Denver looks good. Denver's at home again, All the
angles here would say Denver's aplay, right?
Well, Denver is getting 70% of spread bets at DraftKings, 72%
of bets at Circa. So what the public book
DraftKings, the sharp book Circabig majority tickets here going
Denver. So right off the bat, first
(06:46):
thing I noticed is contrarian opportunity.
I love taking dogs, contrarian, unpopular dogs, hazmat dogs,
whatever you want to call them in big heavily bet primetime
games because you got to remember primetime games are
basically higher ticket count games than any other games
during the week. There's no other games to
compete with. It's a one off and typically
you're going to get a lot of betting on the favorite and the
(07:06):
over because that's where the public likes to put their money.
So right off the bat I'm saying,hey, Cleveland is a good
contrarian play tonight, only getting around 30% of tickets.
But then, as I try to mention onthe pod, you know, going
contrary and betting against thepublic, it's a foundational
philosophy. It's not the end all be all.
You can't just always bet against the public and expect to
be a winning sports better. It's a foundation.
(07:28):
But the whole point when you're a data-driven better is to not
just be against the public, but to be with the sharps, the wise
guys, the people who went at a high rate have their respect to
the books. We do have angles here with some
smart money on Cleveland. So if you go based on the opener
of seven and a half, you do havesome reverse line movement.
The line has gone to Cleveland again.
It's kind of popped back and forth.
But a lot of betting system matches on the Cleveland Browns
(07:49):
tonight. You know, spoiler alert, I'm on
the plus 6 1/2. Cleveland get that hook pretty
widely available. Plus 6 1/2.
But big Rd. dogs Rd. dogs getting 6 points or more,
They're 27 and 17 against the spread this year, 61 percent 17%
ROI. Primetime dogs getting 6 points
or more, they're 30 and 17 ATS 64 percent, 22% ROI since 2022.
(08:15):
Now let's layer in a few more angles here.
Cleveland correlative betting value.
They are nearly a touchdown dog or technically touchdown is 6
points, extra point is 7. This spread is basically 6 1/2,
but round a touchdown dog and a very low total game of 42.
Now the line has since gotten down to 41 1/2, but either way,
you're a big dog low total. Why do we like dog low totals?
(08:37):
On the flip side, you would learn more to short favorites
high totals. But dog low total is a good
angle because the fewer amount of expected points scored going
to mean it's going to be harder for that favorite to cover that
number. Keep on cruising Browns.
Buy low bad ATS team versus sellhigh good ATS team.
Browns are only four and seven against the spread this year.
The Broncos are nine and three ATS.
(08:59):
So people who have played the Broncos make, This is probably
part of the reason why you're seeing big public betting on the
Broncos. Obviously better record at home,
but people have bet them this year have made money.
Broncos covered a lot of numbers.
People who have played Clevelandhave lost money or they bet
against them and made money, whichever way you want to look
at it. But when you're looking for
value, it's always that buy low,sell high, buy low on the team
(09:20):
that hasn't covered a lot, thinking they'll regress
positively. Sell high on the team that has
covered a lot, thinking they'll regress negatively.
Also, an angle here that's important to me is a rest
advantage. Cleveland Browns last played on
Thursday, Broncos played on Sunday.
So extra rest here. Three day advantage, rehab,
injuries, game plan, get ready for the next game.
(09:41):
Of course, the hook is importanthere.
When I was writing the Sharper board for visen.com earlier
today, there were only a couple books, 6 1/2.
A lot of books were at six. A few more have gone to 6 1/2,
but there still are some sixes out there.
So of course, shop around. Try to find the 6 1/2.
That's my angle. Cleveland Browns plus 6 1/2.
Now you now you may also be wondering about Jameis Winston
(10:01):
covering numbers because we're sweating Jameis tonight.
I'm sure we'll have some legendary quotes.
Bit of an eccentric guy. I kind of like rooting for
Jameis. I just feel like maybe you think
it's a shtick. I think this is really who he
is. Just kind of a weird dude.
But he rallies the locker room. Now, if you look at Jameis
Winston as a favorite, not good in his career dating back to his
years with Tampa, 8 and 20 against the spread, 29%.
(10:22):
But as a dog, 28 and 24 ATS 54%.If you isolate Jameis as a dog,
getting six or more, 13 and fiveagainst the spread, 72%, so
maybe they lose, but hopefully cover the number, lose by 6,
cover with the hook, maybe that sort of thing.
The other angle when you're looking at this play for
Cleveland would be a good Rhythmedge.
(10:45):
Our friends at Rhythm help us power this podcast.
By the way, thank you all for tuning into Sunday sweats
yesterday as I am part of the live stream 11:00 AM to noon
every Sunday. But Rhythm has two models, the
Rhythm AI model and a model thatI created.
Both are around or basically onehas Cleveland plus 4.3.
The other one has Cleveland plus4.7.
(11:06):
So even if you take the four 7 again, let's we can even round
it up to A5 getting, you know, 61/2 point number on a analytics
play that says the line should be closer to four or five.
Good angle there to take the points with the Browns.
So that's my play tonight. My first play is Cleveland plus
6 1/2. Now the totals been all over the
(11:27):
place. It opened us around 41, got as
high as 42 1/2 and then it got bound back down to 42 around
noon today. It's now come back down even
more to 41 1/2. So late money is breaking under.
I did notice a good bet split tothe over at DraftKings, 56%
bets, 72% money on the over. And we did see a lot of weather
(11:49):
play a factor this past week, and that's something we got to
be conscious of as we're gettinginto December.
And again, it gets colder, windier, rainy, snow, all that
kind of stuff. But that should not be an issue
tonight at Mile High. It's going to be high 30s, clear
skies, pretty much no wind whatsoever.
So that would be kind of a good angle to the over.
So I want to respect, respect the late under money.
(12:10):
I do have angles to the over. This is one of those are totals,
I should say, where I don't havea clear edge one way or the
other. Like if you were able to get
that under like 42 1/2, you're feeling really good seeing this
line fall at this point. Yes, you're with the late move,
but it's kind of kind of giving you the worst number at this
point. So I don't want to touch that
total. My first bet here of two of two
(12:31):
plays, I'll tell you the prop ina second is Cleveland.
So let's go Brownies. Let's see if the dog can bark
for us. I'm on Browns plus 6 1/2 now.
I got a player prop for you. So we're in a big game here
tonight. Of course, Cortland Sutton, you
know, Jerry, Judy, Nick Chubb, you know, Bo Nicks, Winston, all
these good players here tonight or big names.
(12:51):
But I'm going to focus on a guy that I discovered a few weeks
ago. And actually I was on Visen
earlier today to whom I hit withStormy on her show and I
mispronounced this guy's name the whole time.
Then she corrected me and told me the correct pronunciation.
So it is a wide receiver, a seventh round pick, rookie, 6
foot five out of Utah. I kept calling him Devon Valet,
(13:12):
but actually his name is Valet. Devon Valet.
So my, my mistake, Devon Valet. I'm going to go Devon valet over
now here. It's important with the
receiving prop that you get the best price.
Try to get over 37 1/2 that is available, I believe at Bet MGM.
But Fanduel's 38 1/2, Caesar's is 38 1/2 -, 120 over ESPN bet
(13:34):
is 39 1/2. So you see a lot of different
numbers here. Of course, shopping for the best
line is important on game bets, sides, totals, money lines.
But of course, with props you can see a big discrepancy.
But I'm going to go Devon veil amy numbers over 37 and a half.
First thing I notice is that he's gone over this number in
three straight games and he's really been kind of getting more
(13:56):
part of the offense here as the season has progressed.
He's only played in eight games this year.
Broncos have played twelve gamesoverall.
He's only played eight games, but he is third on the team and
targets. So this is a guy that again,
it's been really getting more more play, more targets, more
looks as the season has progressed.
Last week against the Las Vegas Raiders, he had 80 receiving
(14:18):
yards week before that 66 week before that 39.
So think of it the other way. If you look at his his chart on
rhythm, which again, got to go download that rhythm app, it's
pretty much looks like some beautiful stairs just getting up
and up and up in the right direction as he's getting more
targets, more looks, more catches, more yards.
Also, I think or I hope it's going to be a favorable matchup
(14:40):
for Devon Valet. I mentioned his height, 6 foot
5, but Cortland Sutton is your number one wideout.
So I would assume Denzel Ward and a lot of the focus of
Cleveland defensively will be onstopping Cortland Sutton.
What does that mean? It means Devon Valet hopefully
will be going up secondary or kind of, you know, second tier
secondary players, defensive backs also defensive backs that
(15:02):
are 6 foot even 5 foot 11 and this guy is 6 foot 5.
So hopefully with the focus on Sutton, that provides
opportunities for Devon Valet toget some good yardage.
And then I mentioned the over 371/2.
Our friends at Rhythm are predicting Devon Valet with 51
receiving yards. So if you're giving me a guy who
(15:23):
is really ascending, becoming more of a target here, Bonex has
really gone to him last few weeks.
It's kind of an under the radar name that you may not have heard
of, but he's over 37 1/2 and Rhythms predicting 51.
That's a pretty good round, 14 point edge or 14 yard edge
toward that over. So give me the brownies plus 6
1/2 and give me Devon Valet. It's valet.
(15:45):
It's not valet, valet over 37 1/2.
So can we at least get one of those between the side and the
prop? Now over to some college hoops
because there's one college hoops game that caught my eye
tonight and it is kind of a classic for us.
An added game, extra game, obscure sharp line move with a
good Ken Palm edge as well. So the game that I landed on for
(16:06):
tonight, Bryant and Drexel, it'sa 7:00 game and it is in
Philadelphia as Drexel plays in Philly, of course.
But this one caught my eye for acouple different reasons.
So let me pull up this game on my on my board here.
Bryant comes in four and four. They've lost three of their last
four, though struggled a bit. Flip side, Drexel five and
(16:28):
three, they've won three of their last four And Drexel, of
course, is at home. Now, the first thing I noticed
is some line, good line movement.
Now you open this game, Drexel at home around a one point
favorite, 1 1/2 point favorite. Now, earlier in the day, you saw
Drexel get as high as -2 -, 2 1/2.
This line has come back down a little bit.
(16:48):
It's back down to around 1 1/2. But the angle to me is Drexel
money line. I got Drexel on the money line
around -1 I think I got -128 at FanDuel.
Now we can get it a little bit shorter.
You can probably shop around andfind around a -, 120 You might
be worried that the signs going back a little bit toward Bryant
again dance with the one who brung you type play.
(17:09):
But here's what's going to make you excited to play Drexel.
One is the added game extra game.
So I try to mention this anytimeI have the chance, but the NSS
or Vegas ID number, if you noticed, typically it's going to
be a three digit number. So game you know, 861862 that's
going to be your your regular play.
If it's an added game extra game, it's a six digit rotation
number. So this is game 306-611-3066
(17:32):
one, two. So if you're at the book and you
walk up to the counter and say you want to place a bet, you'll
say game three O 6612, you know,money line or whatever, whatever
you're going to put in, you givethe the money to the the ticket
writer. But why do I mention that?
Because these these add a game extra games are very difficult
to find on your sports betting app.
Typically it's an extra tab thatyou got to search for.
(17:53):
It's one in a football after Thanksgiving.
I don't think a lot of public betters are clamoring to bet
Bryant Drexel. But the fact this line is moved
toward Drexel again tells me that, you know, sharp, sharp
betters wise guys have gotten down on Drexel.
So always pay attention to obscure sharp line moves in low
bet added game extra games. Now here's where it gets good.
(18:15):
Our our buddy Ken Palm has Drexel winning this game by
three. Ken Palm also with his analytics
are showing a lot of advantages to Drexel.
Drexel's offensive adjusted efficiency.
So how do you how efficient are you in offense?
153 in the country, Bryant 186. So better offense.
Effective field goal percentage,54% this versus 50% defensively,
(18:39):
Drexel's only giving up 66 points a game versus nearly 80
for Bryant. One day rest advantage, nothing
huge. Both teams have been off since
the break, but the last game forDrexel was the 26th versus
Bryant the 27th. And then if you look at Bryant,
I would call this kind of a schedule disadvantage.
(18:59):
Bryant's first two games are at home and now they're playing
there. Let me count them up, 123456,
not six straight, but six of their last seven games are on
the road and they've struggled on the road here.
So it's kind of a tough schedulespot on the road after
Thanksgiving versus Drexel playing their third straight
home game. Haven't didn't have to travel
during Thanksgiving break. Then I look at home Rd. splits.
(19:21):
I think it's really important incollege.
It's not as important in the NFLor pro sports or NBA because
pros are used to it. College kids, it's a big
advantage to be at home versus having to travel on the road,
especially with dealing with a lot of crowd noise and stuff
like that. But Drexel is 2 and one at home
and they were 13 and one at homelast year.
So really good home cooking. Bryant two and three on the road
(19:42):
this year, 8 and 10 on the road last year.
So home Rd. splits favored Drexel lines going back and
forth, but it did move at one point toward Drexel.
Better offense, better defense. Again, Ken Palm has Drexel
winning by three. I want to say Rhythm had Drexel
winning by like 1.7 points. But again, you see a 1 1/2 right
now. Are we going to lay 1 1/2?
(20:04):
I mean, you can if you want, save some juice.
But hopefully I've taught you atthis point that hey, I think
there's the better players to gomoney line because if Drexel
wins by one point. And think of it this way, the
oddsmakers are telling you 1 1/2point spread.
It could be a very tight game. Drexel wins by 1.
You want to cash that ticket. You don't want to lose a -, 1
1/2. So my only play in college
(20:24):
hoops. Let's go Drexel Dragons.
Let's get it done and win this game at home.
I'm on the Drexel money line. I got -128 you can shop around
and find a game as low or a number as low as around -120 so
Drexel Money line, Cleveland Browns plus 6 1/2 and Devon
Valet over 37 1/2 receiving yards.
(20:44):
So that about does it a bit shorter than usual.
Short and sweet Episode 173 of the ASG Pod, Powered by Rhythm.
This is the part of the pod where we wrap it up, and I start
by asking a big favor of you. First off, thank you.
Of course, you know, we're getting to the part of the year
where you're thankful for what you have and hopefully you don't
lament what you don't have, but thankful for you guys tuning in
(21:05):
each day, listening to the pod, helping me grow the pod,
building a community of data-driven, sharp contrarian
betters. Again, I'm just very privileged
and honored to toast this pod each day and have you guys
TuneIn. So please could you do me a big
favor? It'll take you literally 2
seconds, maybe one second, one tap of the finger.
Could you give this podcast a five star review, please?
If you enjoy the pod, if you think the insights and angles
(21:28):
are valuable, give it a five star review on Spotify or
iTunes. Really helps us to grow the pod
and gain more listens and rise up the charts.
If you want to click that followbutton.
That way when it gets dropped each day, early afternoon, it'll
get it'll pop up right on your library.
You don't have to search for it.If you want to recommend it to a
friend, even better, there's an option to leave a a nice
(21:48):
comment. Hey, I won't say no to that
either, but please, a five star review would go a long way.
Secondly, if you enjoyed this podcast and you are now
interested, very much interestedin data-driven contrarian
betting because again, no bias, no opinion.
We're betting based on where thesmart money's going and also
trying to be against the public with our system matches.
But if you want to learn more about data-driven betting, and I
(22:10):
know it's officially December now and maybe you're searching
for a gift for your uncle, your grandson, you know, your
brother, your colleague, something for Secret Santa or
Hanukkah present. I have a great idea.
You should go buy that person who needs a gift, a book and
you're like, oh, book that's boring, right?
No, because this book could hopefully make you some money.
It's called the everything guideto sports betting.
(22:32):
Just go to Amazon.com, type in the everything guide to sports
betting. I wrote that baby.
It's got everything I've learnedin the industry, how lines are
set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to
locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online,
how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
management plan, all included inthe everything guide to sports
betting. So just go pick it up at Amazon.
(22:53):
Boom, bring it to the book. I'll sign it for you and I'll
buy you a beer or ginger ale andwe'll sweat some games together
next. Have you signed up for a 7 day
free trial of Juice Reel or Rhythm yet?
My two favorite sports betting apps because they're all
data-driven. If you look at Juice Reel, of
course, the ASG Pod best bets are now posted to Juice Reel.
It's 499 a week. Again, I cringe a little bit
(23:15):
because I don't want to sound like a tout, but these are our
plays that I would think about as like a tip jar or if you
enjoy the pod and all these insights are free again, 5 bucks
a week hopefully helps helps youwin some tickets or win some
bets here. But you can follow all the best
bets on Juice Reel. Again, you can click that link
that's now in the bio description of the pod or I will
(23:36):
tweet them out each day. But think of it as you know a
tip jar, you know, one coffee a week to get these good insights.
So I hope you feel that way is worth it, but also not just the
ASG best bets, but also the roboJackson best bet picks, the
arbitrage opportunity sharp mushindicators.
I also love looking at the dollar breakdowns for every game
(23:57):
for bets and dollars on both. You know, spread money line
total for every game to know where people in the juicer lap
are leaning as well as looking at shopping for the best line
for prices on futures makes it really easy on the juicer lap.
And of course, rhythm rhythm fantastic for their AI back
models and predictions for game bets as well as player props.
(24:17):
So please follow the ASG best bets on Juice Rail and of
course, download both apps and hopefully they'll help you win a
little bit because they help me win as well.
So not about does it. Of course, I'll leave you with a
couple things here. One, whether I see you at the
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown in
(24:37):
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston, or Plain Ridge Park
Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of the woods in
Massachusetts are out in the desert where the true grinders
get down, where Billy Walters sends his number runners, where
the lowest juice possible is found at the South Point, or
Sweat and Sharp can train plays jumping in the stadium swimming
pool. When you cash a big ticket at
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to show me some
(24:57):
good tickets. Since we last talked Michigan,
Richmond, Loyal and Miramount, the Minnesota Wild, the Miami,
Green Bay. Under who else?
San Jose State? The Cowboys?
How about Fresno State? How about the Jags?
Mac Jones covering, I can't believe it.
Seattle money line dance with the one who brung US.
Carolina plus six. Guess what?
First one's on me, next one's onyou.
(25:19):
Flash that ticket and we'll sweat some sharp contrane plays
at the book. As always, guys, I'll leave you
with this. Whether we're hot, whether we're
cold, whether we are grinding and just trying to tread water,
whether we're trying to bounce back from a losing day or we're
trying to post another winning day.
I hope you guys know at this point the model never changes.
Flat betting data-driven sports betting plays.
(25:40):
There's a there's an angle, there's a system match.
There's a contrarian sharp bet. We're going to play it, but
we're going to stay true to our bankroll management, of course
as well. But I'll always leave you with
this stay sharp, stay contrarianbet against the public, place
yourself on the side of the house.
Always be with the smart money, never against it will smart
money when every time no, it won't and get a lot of new
(26:00):
betters. You know, are like, oh, that was
a sharp bet and it lost. You know, what's the deal?
Remember, sports betting is verydifficult.
Sharp bets are not going to win every time, but they're going to
win a majority of the time, around 55 to 60%.
And that's why we want to be against the public, with the
house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that COV.
If we can do that, and I'm pretty confident that we can,
(26:21):
then if we do it long term, overthousands and thousands of bets,
we're going to come out on top in the end.
So I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving.
Welcome to the month of December.
We'll be sweating bowl games before you know it.
But as always, thank you for tuning in.
And then we'll be right back at it tomorrow on a big Tuesday,
which will be episode 174 of theAll Systems Go Sports Betting
(26:43):
podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck, everybody.
Enjoy your Monday night.
Hello, and welcome to episode 173 of the All Systems Go sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Monday, a new week begins,a new month begins as we flip
(00:39):
the page from November to December, final month of the
year. Hope everyone had a great
Thanksgiving. It's been a while since I last
was able to host a pod and and breakdown some sharp games with
you guys. But now we turn the page to
December. We got bowl games coming up,
holiday season. I don't know if anyone's one of
those, you know, crazy people gets your Christmas tree super
early. But if we're getting to that
(01:00):
point of the year as well, and hopefully we can end the year
2024 on a hot note before we bring in the new year of 2025.
But between now and then, we gota lot of games to talk about.
We got a lot of bets hopefully to cash in the month of
December. Now looking toward today, guys,
I got a three pack of sweats foryou.
So you guys know the drill. 3 plays, let's try to get two of
them, go 2 and one eke out a winning day.
(01:21):
It's kind of a smaller than usual slate.
Could have maybe added a better 2, but didn't want to force it.
But I have two plays on Monday Night Football.
We got the Cleveland Browns and we have the Denver Broncos.
I got to play on the side as well as a player prop and then I
got one bet in college basketball.
It is a added game, extra game, sharp obscure line move, which
hopefully will come through for us tonight.
(01:41):
So a three pack. Let's try to get two out of
three now. I buried the lead, but it's been
a while. Haven't haven't had a pod since
Thanksgiving Eve. And I do apologize because I
think I told you guys I would doa pod on Friday but didn't put
one out. I was back home with the family
and we actually went on a hike up the woods and couldn't
really, you know, tell everybody, hey, I got to go to a
podcast like, hey, it's the day after Thanksgiving, you know,
(02:03):
it'll be all right. So I do apologize.
Trend, who was looking forward or toward a pod on Friday.
But anyway, since we last talked, we've been pretty good
here, guys, back on Wednesday, if you remember, four and oh,
bust out the brooms plus 2.67 units.
That was the night where he wentthree and O in college hoops
with Michigan getting it done, the unranked versus ranked
Richmond and Loyola. Miramount also had the Wild in
(02:25):
the NHL Thursday as we were, as I was mentioning here and I kind
of alluded to maybe it was the good mojo from the gambling
gods, but me and my dad sweat Miami Green Bay under 47 1/2 and
it looked dicey midway through the third quarter.
My dad said, oh, I told him to play before the game started so
he was rooting with me but he said oh, doesn't look good Josh.
(02:46):
Luckily the gambling God smiled upon us landed on 47 so that was
great to cash. I did add the Cowboys on the
money line. I don't know if anyone played
that one on Thursday. I do want to mention that of
course, moving forward, all the all systems go best bets are
located on Juice Reel. So you can just go to the social
tab, go to find juicers and search at just search ASG under
(03:08):
score podcast or I'm putting that link in all the podcast
moving forward. I'm tweeting about it each day.
But if there are any additional plays, you can always find them
on the ASG Pod page on the JuiceTrail app.
Friday one and one ECU lost the Navy.
I like ECU in that spot. They just didn't score at all.
San Jose State did come through,so went one and one.
Saturday, 1:00 and 2:00, we got Fresno State covering kicking a
(03:31):
field goal late to lose by 7 1/2or to lose by 7 and cover the
seven and a half. K State, though, and Texas A&M
in particular, like A&M, got a 51/2 close to four and a half and
they had a goal line opportunityto score and backdoor cover four
chances. Brick Wall couldn't score.
So A&M kind of a pathetic performance, but a good Sunday.
Yesterday, 3 and 1 + 1.55 units had the Jaguars, they were late
(03:55):
addition to me. They kept getting steamed and I
said, hey, I got to play this one.
Shout out to Mac Jones for covering that number late.
They're down 23 to 6 scored two touchdowns, 2 point conversion
covered that number. Seattle money line got nervous
because that one went away from us a little bit late, but we
stayed with our original bet dance with the one who brung
you. Seattle came through in a
comeback victory and then Carolina plus six thought they'd
(04:18):
win that one outright. Then I thought they wouldn't
cover. Luckily, they lose by three and
OT we cover the number. The only bet the lost was
Tennessee. Remind me to never bet the
Titans again. I feel like I'm like oh and five
betting the Titans this year. So what are you going to do?
But either way, guys, we're still cashing some tickets here,
so that is a good sign as we steam into Monday Night Football
O. As I mentioned, 2 lays one Night
(04:38):
Football, 1 lay in college hoopsand then we'll get out of here.
But with that being said, let's go right to the final game of
Week 13. Can you believe we're almost at
Week 14 now And boys, the seasonflying by, but Cleveland Browns,
Denver Broncos, I'll give you the breakdown.
I'll give you my play on the side player prop and then talk a
little bit about the total, but kind of a tough angle or tough,
(04:59):
tough total, tough nut to crack it, whatever, you know, I don't
know whatever analogy you want to use there.
I don't want to play this total,but I do want to play the side
and a prop. So setting the stage here 8:15
tonight, ESPN. The Browns come in three and
eight. Remember they just snapped A2
game losing skid, winning 24 to 19 over the Steelers on Thursday
Night Football last week or a while ago at this point.
(05:21):
They went out right as a 3 1/2 point home dog.
Remember they cover that number for us.
But brutal bad beat on the underwe played.
I remember that one. But the Broncos seven and five.
They've had a Goodyear with bring in Bo Knicks looks like
he's legit. Sean Payton good coach as well.
But they're seven and five. They've won two straight.
Just took down the Raiders 29 to19, covering as a six point Rd.
(05:41):
favorite. So what have we seen across the
market here? Well, this line's kind of been
all over the place. The early look headline was
Broncos as high as -7 1/2 at home.
Then obviously when Cleveland had the big win over the
Steelers, we saw this line get all the way down adjustment or
adjusted downward to Denver -5 1/2.
Then when it bottomed out at -5 1/2, we started to see it tick
(06:04):
back up. So now we're seeing the Broncos
on game day back up to -6 -, 6 1/2.
So it fell a lot. It came back up.
You know, you're somewhat close to where that look headline was.
Now, even though the the number has kind of, you know, jockeyed
back and forth, One thing that hasn't changed is the public's
perception of this game. Public is all over the Broncos.
(06:25):
I get it. Cleveland, bad record.
Denver looks good. Denver's at home again, All the
angles here would say Denver's aplay, right?
Well, Denver is getting 70% of spread bets at DraftKings, 72%
of bets at Circa. So what the public book
DraftKings, the sharp book Circabig majority tickets here going
Denver. So right off the bat, first
(06:46):
thing I noticed is contrarian opportunity.
I love taking dogs, contrarian, unpopular dogs, hazmat dogs,
whatever you want to call them in big heavily bet primetime
games because you got to remember primetime games are
basically higher ticket count games than any other games
during the week. There's no other games to
compete with. It's a one off and typically
you're going to get a lot of betting on the favorite and the
(07:06):
over because that's where the public likes to put their money.
So right off the bat I'm saying,hey, Cleveland is a good
contrarian play tonight, only getting around 30% of tickets.
But then, as I try to mention onthe pod, you know, going
contrary and betting against thepublic, it's a foundational
philosophy. It's not the end all be all.
You can't just always bet against the public and expect to
be a winning sports better. It's a foundation.
(07:28):
But the whole point when you're a data-driven better is to not
just be against the public, but to be with the sharps, the wise
guys, the people who went at a high rate have their respect to
the books. We do have angles here with some
smart money on Cleveland. So if you go based on the opener
of seven and a half, you do havesome reverse line movement.
The line has gone to Cleveland again.
It's kind of popped back and forth.
But a lot of betting system matches on the Cleveland Browns
(07:49):
tonight. You know, spoiler alert, I'm on
the plus 6 1/2. Cleveland get that hook pretty
widely available. Plus 6 1/2.
But big Rd. dogs Rd. dogs getting 6 points or more,
They're 27 and 17 against the spread this year, 61 percent 17%
ROI. Primetime dogs getting 6 points
or more, they're 30 and 17 ATS 64 percent, 22% ROI since 2022.
(08:15):
Now let's layer in a few more angles here.
Cleveland correlative betting value.
They are nearly a touchdown dog or technically touchdown is 6
points, extra point is 7. This spread is basically 6 1/2,
but round a touchdown dog and a very low total game of 42.
Now the line has since gotten down to 41 1/2, but either way,
you're a big dog low total. Why do we like dog low totals?
(08:37):
On the flip side, you would learn more to short favorites
high totals. But dog low total is a good
angle because the fewer amount of expected points scored going
to mean it's going to be harder for that favorite to cover that
number. Keep on cruising Browns.
Buy low bad ATS team versus sellhigh good ATS team.
Browns are only four and seven against the spread this year.
The Broncos are nine and three ATS.
(08:59):
So people who have played the Broncos make, This is probably
part of the reason why you're seeing big public betting on the
Broncos. Obviously better record at home,
but people have bet them this year have made money.
Broncos covered a lot of numbers.
People who have played Clevelandhave lost money or they bet
against them and made money, whichever way you want to look
at it. But when you're looking for
value, it's always that buy low,sell high, buy low on the team
(09:20):
that hasn't covered a lot, thinking they'll regress
positively. Sell high on the team that has
covered a lot, thinking they'll regress negatively.
Also, an angle here that's important to me is a rest
advantage. Cleveland Browns last played on
Thursday, Broncos played on Sunday.
So extra rest here. Three day advantage, rehab,
injuries, game plan, get ready for the next game.
(09:41):
Of course, the hook is importanthere.
When I was writing the Sharper board for visen.com earlier
today, there were only a couple books, 6 1/2.
A lot of books were at six. A few more have gone to 6 1/2,
but there still are some sixes out there.
So of course, shop around. Try to find the 6 1/2.
That's my angle. Cleveland Browns plus 6 1/2.
Now you now you may also be wondering about Jameis Winston
(10:01):
covering numbers because we're sweating Jameis tonight.
I'm sure we'll have some legendary quotes.
Bit of an eccentric guy. I kind of like rooting for
Jameis. I just feel like maybe you think
it's a shtick. I think this is really who he
is. Just kind of a weird dude.
But he rallies the locker room. Now, if you look at Jameis
Winston as a favorite, not good in his career dating back to his
years with Tampa, 8 and 20 against the spread, 29%.
(10:22):
But as a dog, 28 and 24 ATS 54%.If you isolate Jameis as a dog,
getting six or more, 13 and fiveagainst the spread, 72%, so
maybe they lose, but hopefully cover the number, lose by 6,
cover with the hook, maybe that sort of thing.
The other angle when you're looking at this play for
Cleveland would be a good Rhythmedge.
(10:45):
Our friends at Rhythm help us power this podcast.
By the way, thank you all for tuning into Sunday sweats
yesterday as I am part of the live stream 11:00 AM to noon
every Sunday. But Rhythm has two models, the
Rhythm AI model and a model thatI created.
Both are around or basically onehas Cleveland plus 4.3.
The other one has Cleveland plus4.7.
(11:06):
So even if you take the four 7 again, let's we can even round
it up to A5 getting, you know, 61/2 point number on a analytics
play that says the line should be closer to four or five.
Good angle there to take the points with the Browns.
So that's my play tonight. My first play is Cleveland plus
6 1/2. Now the totals been all over the
(11:27):
place. It opened us around 41, got as
high as 42 1/2 and then it got bound back down to 42 around
noon today. It's now come back down even
more to 41 1/2. So late money is breaking under.
I did notice a good bet split tothe over at DraftKings, 56%
bets, 72% money on the over. And we did see a lot of weather
(11:49):
play a factor this past week, and that's something we got to
be conscious of as we're gettinginto December.
And again, it gets colder, windier, rainy, snow, all that
kind of stuff. But that should not be an issue
tonight at Mile High. It's going to be high 30s, clear
skies, pretty much no wind whatsoever.
So that would be kind of a good angle to the over.
So I want to respect, respect the late under money.
(12:10):
I do have angles to the over. This is one of those are totals,
I should say, where I don't havea clear edge one way or the
other. Like if you were able to get
that under like 42 1/2, you're feeling really good seeing this
line fall at this point. Yes, you're with the late move,
but it's kind of kind of giving you the worst number at this
point. So I don't want to touch that
total. My first bet here of two of two
(12:31):
plays, I'll tell you the prop ina second is Cleveland.
So let's go Brownies. Let's see if the dog can bark
for us. I'm on Browns plus 6 1/2 now.
I got a player prop for you. So we're in a big game here
tonight. Of course, Cortland Sutton, you
know, Jerry, Judy, Nick Chubb, you know, Bo Nicks, Winston, all
these good players here tonight or big names.
(12:51):
But I'm going to focus on a guy that I discovered a few weeks
ago. And actually I was on Visen
earlier today to whom I hit withStormy on her show and I
mispronounced this guy's name the whole time.
Then she corrected me and told me the correct pronunciation.
So it is a wide receiver, a seventh round pick, rookie, 6
foot five out of Utah. I kept calling him Devon Valet,
(13:12):
but actually his name is Valet. Devon Valet.
So my, my mistake, Devon Valet. I'm going to go Devon valet over
now here. It's important with the
receiving prop that you get the best price.
Try to get over 37 1/2 that is available, I believe at Bet MGM.
But Fanduel's 38 1/2, Caesar's is 38 1/2 -, 120 over ESPN bet
(13:34):
is 39 1/2. So you see a lot of different
numbers here. Of course, shopping for the best
line is important on game bets, sides, totals, money lines.
But of course, with props you can see a big discrepancy.
But I'm going to go Devon veil amy numbers over 37 and a half.
First thing I notice is that he's gone over this number in
three straight games and he's really been kind of getting more
(13:56):
part of the offense here as the season has progressed.
He's only played in eight games this year.
Broncos have played twelve gamesoverall.
He's only played eight games, but he is third on the team and
targets. So this is a guy that again,
it's been really getting more more play, more targets, more
looks as the season has progressed.
Last week against the Las Vegas Raiders, he had 80 receiving
(14:18):
yards week before that 66 week before that 39.
So think of it the other way. If you look at his his chart on
rhythm, which again, got to go download that rhythm app, it's
pretty much looks like some beautiful stairs just getting up
and up and up in the right direction as he's getting more
targets, more looks, more catches, more yards.
Also, I think or I hope it's going to be a favorable matchup
(14:40):
for Devon Valet. I mentioned his height, 6 foot
5, but Cortland Sutton is your number one wideout.
So I would assume Denzel Ward and a lot of the focus of
Cleveland defensively will be onstopping Cortland Sutton.
What does that mean? It means Devon Valet hopefully
will be going up secondary or kind of, you know, second tier
secondary players, defensive backs also defensive backs that
(15:02):
are 6 foot even 5 foot 11 and this guy is 6 foot 5.
So hopefully with the focus on Sutton, that provides
opportunities for Devon Valet toget some good yardage.
And then I mentioned the over 371/2.
Our friends at Rhythm are predicting Devon Valet with 51
receiving yards. So if you're giving me a guy who
(15:23):
is really ascending, becoming more of a target here, Bonex has
really gone to him last few weeks.
It's kind of an under the radar name that you may not have heard
of, but he's over 37 1/2 and Rhythms predicting 51.
That's a pretty good round, 14 point edge or 14 yard edge
toward that over. So give me the brownies plus 6
1/2 and give me Devon Valet. It's valet.
(15:45):
It's not valet, valet over 37 1/2.
So can we at least get one of those between the side and the
prop? Now over to some college hoops
because there's one college hoops game that caught my eye
tonight and it is kind of a classic for us.
An added game, extra game, obscure sharp line move with a
good Ken Palm edge as well. So the game that I landed on for
(16:06):
tonight, Bryant and Drexel, it'sa 7:00 game and it is in
Philadelphia as Drexel plays in Philly, of course.
But this one caught my eye for acouple different reasons.
So let me pull up this game on my on my board here.
Bryant comes in four and four. They've lost three of their last
four, though struggled a bit. Flip side, Drexel five and
(16:28):
three, they've won three of their last four And Drexel, of
course, is at home. Now, the first thing I noticed
is some line, good line movement.
Now you open this game, Drexel at home around a one point
favorite, 1 1/2 point favorite. Now, earlier in the day, you saw
Drexel get as high as -2 -, 2 1/2.
This line has come back down a little bit.
(16:48):
It's back down to around 1 1/2. But the angle to me is Drexel
money line. I got Drexel on the money line
around -1 I think I got -128 at FanDuel.
Now we can get it a little bit shorter.
You can probably shop around andfind around a -, 120 You might
be worried that the signs going back a little bit toward Bryant
again dance with the one who brung you type play.
(17:09):
But here's what's going to make you excited to play Drexel.
One is the added game extra game.
So I try to mention this anytimeI have the chance, but the NSS
or Vegas ID number, if you noticed, typically it's going to
be a three digit number. So game you know, 861862 that's
going to be your your regular play.
If it's an added game extra game, it's a six digit rotation
number. So this is game 306-611-3066
(17:32):
one, two. So if you're at the book and you
walk up to the counter and say you want to place a bet, you'll
say game three O 6612, you know,money line or whatever, whatever
you're going to put in, you givethe the money to the the ticket
writer. But why do I mention that?
Because these these add a game extra games are very difficult
to find on your sports betting app.
Typically it's an extra tab thatyou got to search for.
(17:53):
It's one in a football after Thanksgiving.
I don't think a lot of public betters are clamoring to bet
Bryant Drexel. But the fact this line is moved
toward Drexel again tells me that, you know, sharp, sharp
betters wise guys have gotten down on Drexel.
So always pay attention to obscure sharp line moves in low
bet added game extra games. Now here's where it gets good.
(18:15):
Our our buddy Ken Palm has Drexel winning this game by
three. Ken Palm also with his analytics
are showing a lot of advantages to Drexel.
Drexel's offensive adjusted efficiency.
So how do you how efficient are you in offense?
153 in the country, Bryant 186. So better offense.
Effective field goal percentage,54% this versus 50% defensively,
(18:39):
Drexel's only giving up 66 points a game versus nearly 80
for Bryant. One day rest advantage, nothing
huge. Both teams have been off since
the break, but the last game forDrexel was the 26th versus
Bryant the 27th. And then if you look at Bryant,
I would call this kind of a schedule disadvantage.
(18:59):
Bryant's first two games are at home and now they're playing
there. Let me count them up, 123456,
not six straight, but six of their last seven games are on
the road and they've struggled on the road here.
So it's kind of a tough schedulespot on the road after
Thanksgiving versus Drexel playing their third straight
home game. Haven't didn't have to travel
during Thanksgiving break. Then I look at home Rd. splits.
(19:21):
I think it's really important incollege.
It's not as important in the NFLor pro sports or NBA because
pros are used to it. College kids, it's a big
advantage to be at home versus having to travel on the road,
especially with dealing with a lot of crowd noise and stuff
like that. But Drexel is 2 and one at home
and they were 13 and one at homelast year.
So really good home cooking. Bryant two and three on the road
(19:42):
this year, 8 and 10 on the road last year.
So home Rd. splits favored Drexel lines going back and
forth, but it did move at one point toward Drexel.
Better offense, better defense. Again, Ken Palm has Drexel
winning by three. I want to say Rhythm had Drexel
winning by like 1.7 points. But again, you see a 1 1/2 right
now. Are we going to lay 1 1/2?
(20:04):
I mean, you can if you want, save some juice.
But hopefully I've taught you atthis point that hey, I think
there's the better players to gomoney line because if Drexel
wins by one point. And think of it this way, the
oddsmakers are telling you 1 1/2point spread.
It could be a very tight game. Drexel wins by 1.
You want to cash that ticket. You don't want to lose a -, 1
1/2. So my only play in college
(20:24):
hoops. Let's go Drexel Dragons.
Let's get it done and win this game at home.
I'm on the Drexel money line. I got -128 you can shop around
and find a game as low or a number as low as around -120 so
Drexel Money line, Cleveland Browns plus 6 1/2 and Devon
Valet over 37 1/2 receiving yards.
(20:44):
So that about does it a bit shorter than usual.
Short and sweet Episode 173 of the ASG Pod, Powered by Rhythm.
This is the part of the pod where we wrap it up, and I start
by asking a big favor of you. First off, thank you.
Of course, you know, we're getting to the part of the year
where you're thankful for what you have and hopefully you don't
lament what you don't have, but thankful for you guys tuning in
(21:05):
each day, listening to the pod, helping me grow the pod,
building a community of data-driven, sharp contrarian
betters. Again, I'm just very privileged
and honored to toast this pod each day and have you guys
TuneIn. So please could you do me a big
favor? It'll take you literally 2
seconds, maybe one second, one tap of the finger.
Could you give this podcast a five star review, please?
If you enjoy the pod, if you think the insights and angles
(21:28):
are valuable, give it a five star review on Spotify or
iTunes. Really helps us to grow the pod
and gain more listens and rise up the charts.
If you want to click that followbutton.
That way when it gets dropped each day, early afternoon, it'll
get it'll pop up right on your library.
You don't have to search for it.If you want to recommend it to a
friend, even better, there's an option to leave a a nice
(21:48):
comment. Hey, I won't say no to that
either, but please, a five star review would go a long way.
Secondly, if you enjoyed this podcast and you are now
interested, very much interestedin data-driven contrarian
betting because again, no bias, no opinion.
We're betting based on where thesmart money's going and also
trying to be against the public with our system matches.
But if you want to learn more about data-driven betting, and I
(22:10):
know it's officially December now and maybe you're searching
for a gift for your uncle, your grandson, you know, your
brother, your colleague, something for Secret Santa or
Hanukkah present. I have a great idea.
You should go buy that person who needs a gift, a book and
you're like, oh, book that's boring, right?
No, because this book could hopefully make you some money.
It's called the everything guideto sports betting.
(22:32):
Just go to Amazon.com, type in the everything guide to sports
betting. I wrote that baby.
It's got everything I've learnedin the industry, how lines are
set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to
locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online,
how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
management plan, all included inthe everything guide to sports
betting. So just go pick it up at Amazon.
(22:53):
Boom, bring it to the book. I'll sign it for you and I'll
buy you a beer or ginger ale andwe'll sweat some games together
next. Have you signed up for a 7 day
free trial of Juice Reel or Rhythm yet?
My two favorite sports betting apps because they're all
data-driven. If you look at Juice Reel, of
course, the ASG Pod best bets are now posted to Juice Reel.
It's 499 a week. Again, I cringe a little bit
(23:15):
because I don't want to sound like a tout, but these are our
plays that I would think about as like a tip jar or if you
enjoy the pod and all these insights are free again, 5 bucks
a week hopefully helps helps youwin some tickets or win some
bets here. But you can follow all the best
bets on Juice Reel. Again, you can click that link
that's now in the bio description of the pod or I will
(23:36):
tweet them out each day. But think of it as you know a
tip jar, you know, one coffee a week to get these good insights.
So I hope you feel that way is worth it, but also not just the
ASG best bets, but also the roboJackson best bet picks, the
arbitrage opportunity sharp mushindicators.
I also love looking at the dollar breakdowns for every game
(23:57):
for bets and dollars on both. You know, spread money line
total for every game to know where people in the juicer lap
are leaning as well as looking at shopping for the best line
for prices on futures makes it really easy on the juicer lap.
And of course, rhythm rhythm fantastic for their AI back
models and predictions for game bets as well as player props.
(24:17):
So please follow the ASG best bets on Juice Rail and of
course, download both apps and hopefully they'll help you win a
little bit because they help me win as well.
So not about does it. Of course, I'll leave you with a
couple things here. One, whether I see you at the
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown in
(24:37):
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston, or Plain Ridge Park
Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of the woods in
Massachusetts are out in the desert where the true grinders
get down, where Billy Walters sends his number runners, where
the lowest juice possible is found at the South Point, or
Sweat and Sharp can train plays jumping in the stadium swimming
pool. When you cash a big ticket at
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to show me some
(24:57):
good tickets. Since we last talked Michigan,
Richmond, Loyal and Miramount, the Minnesota Wild, the Miami,
Green Bay. Under who else?
San Jose State? The Cowboys?
How about Fresno State? How about the Jags?
Mac Jones covering, I can't believe it.
Seattle money line dance with the one who brung US.
Carolina plus six. Guess what?
First one's on me, next one's onyou.
(25:19):
Flash that ticket and we'll sweat some sharp contrane plays
at the book. As always, guys, I'll leave you
with this. Whether we're hot, whether we're
cold, whether we are grinding and just trying to tread water,
whether we're trying to bounce back from a losing day or we're
trying to post another winning day.
I hope you guys know at this point the model never changes.
Flat betting data-driven sports betting plays.
(25:40):
There's a there's an angle, there's a system match.
There's a contrarian sharp bet. We're going to play it, but
we're going to stay true to our bankroll management, of course
as well. But I'll always leave you with
this stay sharp, stay contrarianbet against the public, place
yourself on the side of the house.
Always be with the smart money, never against it will smart
money when every time no, it won't and get a lot of new
(26:00):
betters. You know, are like, oh, that was
a sharp bet and it lost. You know, what's the deal?
Remember, sports betting is verydifficult.
Sharp bets are not going to win every time, but they're going to
win a majority of the time, around 55 to 60%.
And that's why we want to be against the public, with the
house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that COV.
If we can do that, and I'm pretty confident that we can,
(26:21):
then if we do it long term, overthousands and thousands of bets,
we're going to come out on top in the end.
So I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving.
Welcome to the month of December.
We'll be sweating bowl games before you know it.
But as always, thank you for tuning in.
And then we'll be right back at it tomorrow on a big Tuesday,
which will be episode 174 of theAll Systems Go Sports Betting
(26:43):
podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck, everybody.
Enjoy your Monday night.
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