July 8, 2025 • 25 mins
In Episode 314, Josh dishes out a 3-pack of MLB plays for Tuesday night.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:19):
Hello, and welcome to episode 314 of the All Systems Go Sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena,
(00:40):
guys. And we got a lot to get to on
today's podcast because we're getting right back to Major
League Baseball. You know, you love it.
I know it's kind of the dog daysof summer here.
And maybe some people are like, you know, sports betting in the
summer. Just wake me up when NFL
returns. But no, if you grind Major
League Baseball, you are loving this time of year.
Again, not much else going on, but we have all our focus really
(01:02):
on Major League Baseball where we can hopefully continue to
grind out a profit. I do have a three pack of sweats
for you today, guys. We got a loaded slate of 15
games. I probably could have added two
or three more bets, but I alwaystry to limit my plays.
You know, when I was younger andgetting into sports betting for
the first time, I remember in myearly 20s when I was living with
a bunch of my guy friends and Brighton and Austin and
(01:23):
Somerville and Boston, You know,we'd love to bet, you know, 10
games a night, sweat all night, have all different things going
on and try to have a big night. But you know what happens
sometimes, You know, the more bets you make, the more risk you
assume the juice eats away at your winnings.
You want to go 10 and O, you could easily go 1:00 and 9:00
and have a terrible night. So I learned over time kind of
less is more a little joke that I kind of made.
(01:45):
I guess it's not much of a joke because we don't want to joke
about alcohol. But anyway, if you had 10
glasses of wine a night, you probably have a problem.
If you have one glass a night with dinner, you're probably
fine. So again, less is more in
moderation and I think to me, and again, if you've been
grinding MLB with us since opening day this year, our sweet
spot is making 3 plays, trying to focus on, hey, we got a slate
(02:06):
of 15 games, let's pick the three games that fit our model,
check off all the boxes. The beauty of that is the goal
is to grind as many 2IN1 winningdays as you possibly can.
And if things don't go your way and you have a terrible night,
you never want to go O and three, but hey, O and three
won't kill you again. O and five, O and 10:00, That's
when you can really have a problem.
So less is more in that spot. And Speaking of going O and
(02:28):
three, you know what else happens sometimes?
Sometimes you go 3 and O and sweep the board.
Great night last night to start our week, guys. 3 and O + 3.38
units. Boy, we had some plus money dogs
that barked last night. Dogs were barking up a storm.
How about first bed of the night, the Detroit Tigers
getting a little bit of plus money?
They're like plus 105. I actually ended up closing at
(02:50):
basically a pick em again. That late movement is always
notable to me when you open as adog and you see that line move
further in your favor. And they came through for us
with Kaider Montero pitch in thejam and the bats of I think it
was Colt Keith and Baez had a Homer.
Detroit got a winner for us 5 to1, which is nice.
Also had a winner there with theLA Angels.
Had to sweat that one. Got to degrom, which was nice.
(03:13):
It's not often you score, you know, four or five runs off of
degrom or maybe was like 3 untilhe got pulled.
But anyway, Angels clawed their way back and they walked it off
in the bottom of the ninth on a walk to Shawn you.
Well, which was nice. And remember, that was a public
all over Texas reverse line movement on the Angels.
That's when RLM takes place, when the betting line goes away
from the popular side toward theunpopular side.
(03:36):
Three out of four bets on Texas,but Texas fell -145 down to
around -130 so we got some plus money on the Angels.
And then, oh by the way, the G men coming up, absolutely
massive for the team. Sanchez pitched well for Philly,
but San Fran, they had a one nothing lead.
Then they coughed it up. It was 1 to one.
They end up scoring. I think it was a couple runs in
(03:56):
the eighth inning, which was huge and got us the winner there
3 to 1. So nice little 3 and O bust out
the brooms plus 3.38 unit night.I'll see if we can ride that
momentum, bring it into tonight and hopefully produce another
winning day. That being said, right back to
baseball for today, guys. As I mentioned, a three pack, 2
pretty short favorites and then one larger favorite.
(04:17):
We're going to see if we can find a way to scratch and claw
and get 2 out of 3 go 2 and one ecot a winning day.
So without further ado, let's waste no more time.
Let's start the the game the thecap off tonight by going out to
Milwaukee where they like to make the beer, the beer makers.
We have a 7:40 PM Eastern Time first pitch, the LA Dodgers
visiting the Milwaukee Brew Crew.
(04:39):
Let's set the stage talk line, movement, system, matches, bet
splits. I'll give you my play for this
one. So going into it, we have the
Brewers 51 and 40. They dominate the last night
series opener, 9 to one big win over the Dodgers.
They cashed as a + 115 home dog pitching rematch for tonight.
The Dodgers who are 56 and 36 and have now lost four in a row,
(05:01):
they're going to go with the veteran lefty Clayton Kershaw
four and O 3.43 ERA. The ageless wonder.
Meanwhile, the Brewers going with the young stud Jacob
Mesorowski 3 and 13.2 O ERA. So what are you seeing across
the market for this one? This game open Dodgers very
short -115 Rd. favorite Milwaukee around a -. 1 O 5 home
dog. And we've seen sharps jump on
(05:23):
the Dodgers in a bounce back spot.
I like the Dodgers in a very rare short money line price here
because the Dodgers open -115 Dodgers have now been up to -120
some shops as high now as -125 S.
Not a massive steam move, but about a 5 to 10 cent move in
favor of LA. If you look at the LA splits.
Notable to me that at DraftKingsthey're only getting 65% of bets
(05:46):
but 72% of dollars. And then out at Circa, this one
really caught my eye. Only 33% of money line bets on
the Dodgers, but it accounts formore than 50% of the dollars.
So you have a pretty good low bets higher dollar split both at
DraftKings and Circa coming in favor of the Dodgers with which
aligns with that line move toward the Dodgers.
Now Dodgers. Not a huge line move play to me,
(06:08):
but a big system match play. I have a bunch of systems.
I have six overall lit up on theDodgers tonight.
Here are some of the top ones. Rd. favorites off a loss who
made the playoffs the previous year, playing an opponent who
also made the playoffs. So you're off a loss, bounce
back your favorite, you're expected to win.
You're on the road, you're a little contrarian, and you're
playing a pretty good team, which typically means hopefully
(06:30):
you rise to the occasion. You don't take them lightly.
That system this year is 21 and 1362 percent, 3% ROI.
Nothing amazing, but a winning system.
Another variation, Rd. favoritesoff a loss, playing an opponent
off a win, 117 and 7760 percent,4% ROI.
And here's the really good one. Stay with me.
It's a little bit a little bit of a mouthful favorites, awful
(06:52):
loss in a sweet spot -120 to -150 playing an opponent who
made the playoffs the previous year.
That system is 54 and 3164% witha 12% ROI.
So it also matches on the Dodgers.
Now, if you isolate the Dodgers in particular, think of LA.
They're almost never a dog. They're almost always a
favorite, and they're usually laying big numbers -150 - 200 -
(07:17):
250. It's very rare.
The Dodgers are -120 -, 125. So in this spot, the Dodgers,
let's say First off a loss, do they bounce back?
And oh, they've lost four in a row here, but they're still 21
and 1264 percent, 3% ROI off a loss.
So it's still one of the better bounce back teams in baseball.
But here's the angle that I was trying to trying to get at when
(07:39):
the Dodgers are what I call a quote UN quote value play.
So they're a short favorite -150or less in that situation.
The Dodgers are 11 and six this year, 65%, thirteen percent ROI
and spec. Since 2022, when they're -150 or
less as a favorite, they're 94 and 4966% with a 16% ROI.
(08:01):
So in this spot, it's been profitable to play a good team
when they're laying a short number.
Now I'm going to bank on the Dodgers offense hopefully waking
up here because they really didn't do anything last night.
But on the year they are hittingtwo 6000 and 41 homers, 501 runs
scored. Brewers meanwhile only hitting
24788 home runs, 429 runs scored.
(08:22):
Also we do have Dodgers facing arighty tonight.
Mizarowski this kids pretty goodyoung stud, but maybe the
Dodgers bats can get to him. He is a righty and LA is hitting
260 against righty's this year. That's the third best average in
baseball against righty's. And oh, by the way, Clayton
Kershaw, I know he's getting older, but he's 2 and O 1.5 O
ERA on the road this year. He's pitched very well on the
(08:44):
road. So you Add all up.
Dodgers got blown out last night, but tonight they have a
line move in their favor. They got a low bets, higher
dollars bets split at DraftKingsand Circo.
They're matching a lot of systems.
I'm going to take a shot on LA here as a sharp play, but also a
value play. Good team at a short price on a
losing streak. I got LA at -120 I think ESPN
(09:05):
bet still has -120 But shop around.
A lot of other books are as highas -125 Let's go Dodgers next
one for you. 7:40 PM Eastern Time, first pitch, let's go to
the Windy City, the Southside Chicago White Sox hosting the
Toronto Blue Jays now going intoit, we got the Jays or red hot.
I believe they're now in first place in the American League
(09:26):
East, overtaking the Yankees. They're 53 and 38.
They won last night. Series opener 8 to 4 covered and
actually not covered. I guess they cover the run line,
but came through, I should say as a -170 Rd. favorite.
So pitching match up for tonighton the South side, we have the
Jays going with the ready Chris Bassett.
He's 8 and four with a 4.32 ERA.Meanwhile, the White Sox are
(09:49):
going to go with the ready AaronSavalli just picked him up and
trade. He's one and five with a 4.6 O
ERA this year. What are you seeing across the
market for this one? Well, nothing but steam on the
Blue Jays. Give me the Jays in this one
guys. Toronto open this game as low as
a -. 170 Rd. favorite Chicago plus 150 home dog and sharps.
(10:10):
They're not worried about this big price.
They have gotten down hard, they've hammered Toronto.
Toronto's been steamed up -170 up to -195 some shops even get
into -200. Now the importance of having
multiple outs and finding the best price.
I got -185 on Toronto at Bet MGMand I still, I believe Bet MGM
still has -185 but again, shop around cuz again some looks
(10:33):
closer to -200 I like the bets. What's on the Jays?
It's very heavy pro and Joe. So not not just the public, but
smart money hammering Toronto here.
They're getting 92% bets, 94% dollars at DraftKings.
They're getting 79% bets, 84% dollars at Circa.
So basically you have a low bets, higher dollars pro and Joe
(10:55):
one way action split in favor ofToronto, which coincides of the
line move. And remember Publix just saying,
hey, take the Jays, good record,good winning team, fade the
White Sox, they stink. But wise guys don't think that
way. Wise guys are comparing their
projected number to what the odds makers are offering.
So maybe the sharps who set their own power ratings and
lines had Toronto maybe -190 -? 200 to begin with.
(11:18):
Which is why when it opened -170they hammered Toronto 'cause
that steam in their favor. Now the Jays are matching quite
a few systems for me if you lookat big Rd. favorites -185 or
more with at least $0.05 of steam in their favor.
Those teams are 30 and 9 this year, 77 percent, 11% ROI.
(11:38):
Jays in particular, 25 and 1464 percent, 8% ROI as a favorite.
That makes them the 5th best chalk team in baseball.
And oh by the way, when they're a favorite against the team who
missed the playoffs the previousyear, they improved to 19 and
968 percent, 13% ROI. I'm going to bank on the Jays
offense hopefully lighting up Savalley.
(11:58):
They're hitting 258 on the year,97 homers, 420 runs scored.
White Sox only hitting 222 as a team, 70 home runs, 315 runs
scored. In particular, if you look home
and road and righty lefty, Toronto is hitting 256 against
righties. That's the 7th best in baseball
and they're hitting 244 on the road.
(12:19):
That's 13th in baseball. So they're top 13 against
righties and I'm hitting on the road.
Flip it the other way. Chicago's hitting 219 against
Reddy's. That ranks 30th, dead last in
baseball. And they're hitting 226 at home,
that ranks 28th. So they're bottom of the barrel
in that spot. Blue Jays also have the better
bullpen. You know, I'd love a blowout.
You know, I'm sure we'll have tosweat this one.
(12:40):
But because you got to sweat every game, it's never easy.
That's why you got to embrace those rocking chair wins when
you get them. But advantage in the bullpen for
Toronto, 3.62 ERA versus 4 pointO2 for the White Sox and recent
performance. Toronto's red hot right now.
They've won nine of their last 10.
They're nine and one in the last10.
I should say, hitting 260. White Sox four and six in the
(13:02):
last 10, last 10 only hitting 238.
So I know it's a big number here, which is really important
to again, shop for the best line.
Get these, get these numbers early.
If you do want to follow the allsystems go best bet picks.
You would have gotten an alert from Juice Reel when I put this
in at -185. So it would have saved you
hopefully a little bit of juice.But again, shop around.
(13:24):
I still think -185 before I started the pod, it was still
-185 at Bet MGM. But again, shop around because
some books closer to -200 But I'll be sweating the J's -185
last bit of the night. Let's go out to sunny San Diego.
9:40 PM Eastern Time, first pitch, the D backs visiting the
Padres. Now the Diamondbacks, who are 45
(13:46):
and 46. They took last night's series
opener against San Diego six to three came through as a plus one
O 5 Rd. dog. And tonight three match we got
the D backs going with the readyMerrill Kelly.
He's seven and four 3.55 ERA. Meanwhile, the pods who are 48
and 42, they're going with the ready Nick Pavetta 9 and two
this year, 3.25 ERA. He's had a Goodyear.
(14:08):
What have we seen across the market for this one?
Looks like smart money banking on the Padres, the father's the
dads to bounce back because we saw the opener of San Diego -120
at home, Arizona run a + 100 Rd.dog and we've seen San Diego now
get steamed up -120 up to -130 some shops even as high now as
-135 S good 1015 cent steam in favor of San Diego.
(14:32):
Now if you look at the splits, they look pretty good on San
Diego. At DraftKings, 64% bets nearly
70% of the money on the dads at circa 90% bets 99% dollars on
the dads. So a lot of big money Pro and
Joe in favor of San Diego. And then I have a lot of system
matches. I got 6 lit up here on San
Diego. Home favorites who made the
(14:53):
playoffs the previous year getting at least $0.05 of line
movement in their favor. That system is 164 and 8167
percent, 5% ROI. Another angle here is if you
were a favorite in game two of anew series and you lost the
opener, you also made the playoffs the previous year and
you're getting that 5 cent line movement.
Those teams are 21 and 10 this year, 68 percent, 8% ROI.
(15:17):
If we isolate the Padres in particular, they're 23 and 1266
percent, 8% ROI as a home favorite.
That's the 9th best home favorite in baseball.
They're also 13 and 572 percent,20% ROI as a home favorite with
a line move. So when they're at home, they're
expected to win and the line goes in their favor.
They're getting some element of smart money.
(15:38):
Smart, you know, sharp money backing them.
They've been really good, winning basically three out of
four games. Padres also 23 and 1856%.
But a 13% ROI off a loss that makes them the fifth most
profitable bounce back team in baseball.
Another little angle here, Correlative betting favorite low
total total in this game is 7 1/2.
(15:58):
Some books are 8, but always a good sign when you're a favorite
to have a low total 88 or less because the fair amount of
expected runs scored more likelyto come from quote UN quote,
that better team was expected towin.
And oh by the way, Nick Pavetta,I'm a Red Sox fan.
I kind of agreed to let him go but man, probably Red Sox are
regretting that because he's hada great year.
But Nick Pavetta is 6 and O witha 2.55 ERA at home this year.
(16:22):
So I want to back Pavetta at home.
A little cherry on top, popped open the Juice Reel app.
I noticed an 11% sharp mush edgeon San Diego.
So 11% more of the sharper winning betters who have
downloaded Juice Reel are going with the pods.
So line move in their favor. Bounce back system match, a lot
of low bets, higher dollar splits.
Let's see if the pods can get a win for us tonight.
(16:44):
I'm on San Diego -130 so Dodgers, Blue Jays, San Diego,
can we find a way to get two of those?
That is the goal. You got a winning night.
So that about does it for episode 314 of the All Systems
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up.
And I start first as always by saying thank you.
(17:06):
Thank you for taking the time out of out of your day, out of
your busy lives. And we got a lot going on.
It's summer, you know, you're, you got, you know, going to the
beach, doing whatever you're doing, trying to stay cool.
It's been a heat wave in New England.
Luckily it's going to break later tonight and get back to
the 70s. I don't, I don't like these 90°
days too much for me. But anyway, I know it's summer.
I know you got other things going on, but the fact that you
(17:28):
guys are tuning in, grinding these, these breakdowns and
games with me, it really means alot.
I really, really appreciate it if you do like the pod and you
enjoy the breakdowns, you know, win, lose or draw, tail fade,
pick and choose, do whatever youwant.
But if you want to support the pod, please would you give it a
five star review. If you're listening on Spotify
or iTunes, if you want to leave a nice comment under the review
(17:48):
section or click the follow button.
That way you get a pop up alert on your smartphone as soon as I
post the pod each each early afternoon.
Or if you want to recommend the pod to a friend, I'd also very
much appreciate that. Next, if you enjoy this style of
betting breakdown, obviously we're looking at individual
games, but we the whole part of this pod is teaching a
philosophy or a foundation or kind of a way to attack sports
(18:12):
betting. And that is from the data-driven
perspective. So if you want to learn more
about data-driven betting, not just for baseball, but for all
sports, guess what I wrote a book.
If you want to go to Amazon.com and type in the everything guide
to sports betting, you can pick up a copy of that book.
It's got everything I've learnedin the industry, how lines are
set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to
(18:32):
locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online,
how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
management plan, chapters on allthe major sports.
It's all included in the Everything Guide to sports
betting. And while you're at it, while
you're picking up the everythingguide on Amazon, stay on
Amazon.com and then type in the NFL Sharp Betting playbook.
That's my new book. It comes out August 12th,
(18:53):
basically coming up on pretty much a month away, which is
crazy. But I can't wait for you guys to
hold the the sharp betting playbook in your hands and get
ready for the NFL season. So if you want to pre-order a
copy on Amazon, you'd make me happy.
You would make Triumph books, mypublisher, very happy.
So bring the everything guide and the sharp betting playbook
to the sports book. I'll sign them for you.
(19:14):
I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale, truly, whatever you want.
We'll get some nachos. We'll sweat the Jays, the
Dodgers and the Padres together tonight.
Next, have you downloaded rhythmand juice reel yet?
My two favorite sports betting apps make sure you download
rhythm. They do a great job of powering
this pod. It's it's not RYTHM, it's
RITHMM. So again, data backed AI models
(19:37):
and predictions for game bets and player props.
You got baseball and WNBA live in the rhythm app right now as
we await football, but then alsowe get to juice reel Juice reels
got so many great features. One of the ones that I always
like to promote is the fact thatif you download Juice Rail, you
can support the podcast. This podcast is free if you
(19:57):
would like to get the best bet picks that way.
I'd still hope you listen to thepod, but maybe you got to go do
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office. I don't know.
You got to do whatever. You just want the place.
Support the pod. You can sign up for $4.99 a week
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(20:18):
and I'm synced up the juicer reel, I bet, I met bet MGM,
FanDuel, DraftKings, whatever. Caesar's ESPN bet, it goes right
to the juicer lap and you'll be able to follow those and tail or
fader, do whatever you like, butsupport the pod.
That's only $4.99 a week. You're also going to get the
role with Jackson. Best bet picks, the sharp mush
indicators, the arbitrage plays the shop for the best line
(20:39):
features. It's all available and included
when you download Juice Reel. So download Juice Reel, download
Rhythm, and do a favor for my friend Megan who runs Rhythm and
my buddy Ricky Gold who runs Juice Reel.
Give him a five star review in the App Store.
They would appreciate that. Next, do you have a live odds
page? If you don't have one, you need
(20:59):
one. I can't stress how important a
live odds page is. Honestly, I don't know how
you're betting without a live odds page because the first
thing you got to know, what are the games being played today?
What can I literally what games can I bet on?
Start times, live scoring, live line in game wagering once the
game gets going. But more importantly, it allows
you to track the market in real time.
So you're going to get a openingcolumn that never changes, just
(21:22):
gives you the opening number. Then you're going to get going
to get all the current prices. So you can shop for the best
line. You can see which direction the
line is moving. You can get line history.
You can identify steam. As soon as the team's getting
steam, they're getting big moneyacross the market.
The odds for that team get lit up in red.
Then you can figure out a book that hasn't adjusted yet, get a
good number. Also, I mentioned yesterday
(21:44):
Kyder Montero, a pitching changetook place.
My Odds Logic live odds page, there's a notification, Kyder
Montero is that has been named the starter.
So you get little notifications like that which help you.
So you need a live odds page. There's a bunch of them out
there. I'm not going to say Odds Logic
is the only one, but I think it's the best value because a
lot of them are, you know, 249 bucks a month, 300 bucks a
(22:06):
month, you know, $800 a month, literally.
I know one that's that cost thatmuch.
Odd Logic is 99 bucks a month and if you go to
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First month it'll be 49 bucks. If you like it, you can
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(22:27):
Odds logic.com/josh 123 and my buddy James Perez, I know he
signed up yesterday for a trial and he's loving it so far.
So that about does it for episode 314 of the ASG Pod.
I'll leave you with two final things.
Whether I see you at the Borgatain Atlantic City, Twin River in
Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Rich
(22:50):
Park Casino, R.E.M Gem Springfield in my neck of the
woods in Massachusetts. We're out in in the desert where
the true grinders get down or Billy Walters sends his number
runners where the lowest juice possible is found the South
Point or sweat and Sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
stadium swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
(23:10):
We're going to get we're going to get to Circa.
Maybe we'll get a we'll get a burger at What's the name of
that burger place? It's so freaking good.
Oh my God, what's the next name of it?
Victory Burger. We'll get a victory burger.
But I'm going to see you at one side of the sports book.
You're going to see me. We're just going to look at each
other. Bust out of broom from the
janitor's closet and do a littlelittle Frank Sinatra dance.
(23:31):
What do you think? Because again, 3 and O last
night, show me a Giants ticket, an Angels ticket, a Tigers
ticket. First one's on me, next one's on
you. We'll sweat some games at the
book together. So as always, guys 3 and OO and
three, two and one, one and two.After a great night, after a
terrible night, grinding again, hot cold summer in the middle.
(23:51):
When we're great and running hot, whenever as good as we
think, when we're struggling andit feels like we can't get a
winner, whenever as bad as we think, we're always somewhere in
the middle. We just got to keep grinding
this situate this, this philosophy long term because
that's how you see the fruits, your labor data-driven betters.
Remember, maybe you know by now you're not going to become a
millionaire overnight. The whole point is to grind long
term and steadily, quietly, you know, kind of consistently build
(24:15):
our bankroll. That's always the goal.
So if we can do that, if we can find games that fit our model,
make bets with our head and not our heart, games that are
against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
avoid parlays and get that CLV. If we can do that, and I'm
pretty confident that we can then guess what we're going to
be successful sports betters. So have a great Tuesday night,
everybody. Let's get a couple winners here
(24:36):
on the diamond. We right back at it tomorrow for
a big hump day edition episode 315 of the All Systems Go Sports
Betting podcast. Good luck everybody and have a
great Tuesday night.
Hello, and welcome to episode 314 of the All Systems Go Sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena,
(00:40):
guys. And we got a lot to get to on
today's podcast because we're getting right back to Major
League Baseball. You know, you love it.
I know it's kind of the dog daysof summer here.
And maybe some people are like, you know, sports betting in the
summer. Just wake me up when NFL
returns. But no, if you grind Major
League Baseball, you are loving this time of year.
Again, not much else going on, but we have all our focus really
(01:02):
on Major League Baseball where we can hopefully continue to
grind out a profit. I do have a three pack of sweats
for you today, guys. We got a loaded slate of 15
games. I probably could have added two
or three more bets, but I alwaystry to limit my plays.
You know, when I was younger andgetting into sports betting for
the first time, I remember in myearly 20s when I was living with
a bunch of my guy friends and Brighton and Austin and
(01:23):
Somerville and Boston, You know,we'd love to bet, you know, 10
games a night, sweat all night, have all different things going
on and try to have a big night. But you know what happens
sometimes, You know, the more bets you make, the more risk you
assume the juice eats away at your winnings.
You want to go 10 and O, you could easily go 1:00 and 9:00
and have a terrible night. So I learned over time kind of
less is more a little joke that I kind of made.
(01:45):
I guess it's not much of a joke because we don't want to joke
about alcohol. But anyway, if you had 10
glasses of wine a night, you probably have a problem.
If you have one glass a night with dinner, you're probably
fine. So again, less is more in
moderation and I think to me, and again, if you've been
grinding MLB with us since opening day this year, our sweet
spot is making 3 plays, trying to focus on, hey, we got a slate
(02:06):
of 15 games, let's pick the three games that fit our model,
check off all the boxes. The beauty of that is the goal
is to grind as many 2IN1 winningdays as you possibly can.
And if things don't go your way and you have a terrible night,
you never want to go O and three, but hey, O and three
won't kill you again. O and five, O and 10:00, That's
when you can really have a problem.
So less is more in that spot. And Speaking of going O and
(02:28):
three, you know what else happens sometimes?
Sometimes you go 3 and O and sweep the board.
Great night last night to start our week, guys. 3 and O + 3.38
units. Boy, we had some plus money dogs
that barked last night. Dogs were barking up a storm.
How about first bed of the night, the Detroit Tigers
getting a little bit of plus money?
They're like plus 105. I actually ended up closing at
(02:50):
basically a pick em again. That late movement is always
notable to me when you open as adog and you see that line move
further in your favor. And they came through for us
with Kaider Montero pitch in thejam and the bats of I think it
was Colt Keith and Baez had a Homer.
Detroit got a winner for us 5 to1, which is nice.
Also had a winner there with theLA Angels.
Had to sweat that one. Got to degrom, which was nice.
(03:13):
It's not often you score, you know, four or five runs off of
degrom or maybe was like 3 untilhe got pulled.
But anyway, Angels clawed their way back and they walked it off
in the bottom of the ninth on a walk to Shawn you.
Well, which was nice. And remember, that was a public
all over Texas reverse line movement on the Angels.
That's when RLM takes place, when the betting line goes away
from the popular side toward theunpopular side.
(03:36):
Three out of four bets on Texas,but Texas fell -145 down to
around -130 so we got some plus money on the Angels.
And then, oh by the way, the G men coming up, absolutely
massive for the team. Sanchez pitched well for Philly,
but San Fran, they had a one nothing lead.
Then they coughed it up. It was 1 to one.
They end up scoring. I think it was a couple runs in
(03:56):
the eighth inning, which was huge and got us the winner there
3 to 1. So nice little 3 and O bust out
the brooms plus 3.38 unit night.I'll see if we can ride that
momentum, bring it into tonight and hopefully produce another
winning day. That being said, right back to
baseball for today, guys. As I mentioned, a three pack, 2
pretty short favorites and then one larger favorite.
(04:17):
We're going to see if we can find a way to scratch and claw
and get 2 out of 3 go 2 and one ecot a winning day.
So without further ado, let's waste no more time.
Let's start the the game the thecap off tonight by going out to
Milwaukee where they like to make the beer, the beer makers.
We have a 7:40 PM Eastern Time first pitch, the LA Dodgers
visiting the Milwaukee Brew Crew.
(04:39):
Let's set the stage talk line, movement, system, matches, bet
splits. I'll give you my play for this
one. So going into it, we have the
Brewers 51 and 40. They dominate the last night
series opener, 9 to one big win over the Dodgers.
They cashed as a + 115 home dog pitching rematch for tonight.
The Dodgers who are 56 and 36 and have now lost four in a row,
(05:01):
they're going to go with the veteran lefty Clayton Kershaw
four and O 3.43 ERA. The ageless wonder.
Meanwhile, the Brewers going with the young stud Jacob
Mesorowski 3 and 13.2 O ERA. So what are you seeing across
the market for this one? This game open Dodgers very
short -115 Rd. favorite Milwaukee around a -. 1 O 5 home
dog. And we've seen sharps jump on
(05:23):
the Dodgers in a bounce back spot.
I like the Dodgers in a very rare short money line price here
because the Dodgers open -115 Dodgers have now been up to -120
some shops as high now as -125 S.
Not a massive steam move, but about a 5 to 10 cent move in
favor of LA. If you look at the LA splits.
Notable to me that at DraftKingsthey're only getting 65% of bets
(05:46):
but 72% of dollars. And then out at Circa, this one
really caught my eye. Only 33% of money line bets on
the Dodgers, but it accounts formore than 50% of the dollars.
So you have a pretty good low bets higher dollar split both at
DraftKings and Circa coming in favor of the Dodgers with which
aligns with that line move toward the Dodgers.
Now Dodgers. Not a huge line move play to me,
(06:08):
but a big system match play. I have a bunch of systems.
I have six overall lit up on theDodgers tonight.
Here are some of the top ones. Rd. favorites off a loss who
made the playoffs the previous year, playing an opponent who
also made the playoffs. So you're off a loss, bounce
back your favorite, you're expected to win.
You're on the road, you're a little contrarian, and you're
playing a pretty good team, which typically means hopefully
(06:30):
you rise to the occasion. You don't take them lightly.
That system this year is 21 and 1362 percent, 3% ROI.
Nothing amazing, but a winning system.
Another variation, Rd. favoritesoff a loss, playing an opponent
off a win, 117 and 7760 percent,4% ROI.
And here's the really good one. Stay with me.
It's a little bit a little bit of a mouthful favorites, awful
(06:52):
loss in a sweet spot -120 to -150 playing an opponent who
made the playoffs the previous year.
That system is 54 and 3164% witha 12% ROI.
So it also matches on the Dodgers.
Now, if you isolate the Dodgers in particular, think of LA.
They're almost never a dog. They're almost always a
favorite, and they're usually laying big numbers -150 - 200 -
(07:17):
250. It's very rare.
The Dodgers are -120 -, 125. So in this spot, the Dodgers,
let's say First off a loss, do they bounce back?
And oh, they've lost four in a row here, but they're still 21
and 1264 percent, 3% ROI off a loss.
So it's still one of the better bounce back teams in baseball.
But here's the angle that I was trying to trying to get at when
(07:39):
the Dodgers are what I call a quote UN quote value play.
So they're a short favorite -150or less in that situation.
The Dodgers are 11 and six this year, 65%, thirteen percent ROI
and spec. Since 2022, when they're -150 or
less as a favorite, they're 94 and 4966% with a 16% ROI.
(08:01):
So in this spot, it's been profitable to play a good team
when they're laying a short number.
Now I'm going to bank on the Dodgers offense hopefully waking
up here because they really didn't do anything last night.
But on the year they are hittingtwo 6000 and 41 homers, 501 runs
scored. Brewers meanwhile only hitting
24788 home runs, 429 runs scored.
(08:22):
Also we do have Dodgers facing arighty tonight.
Mizarowski this kids pretty goodyoung stud, but maybe the
Dodgers bats can get to him. He is a righty and LA is hitting
260 against righty's this year. That's the third best average in
baseball against righty's. And oh, by the way, Clayton
Kershaw, I know he's getting older, but he's 2 and O 1.5 O
ERA on the road this year. He's pitched very well on the
(08:44):
road. So you Add all up.
Dodgers got blown out last night, but tonight they have a
line move in their favor. They got a low bets, higher
dollars bets split at DraftKingsand Circo.
They're matching a lot of systems.
I'm going to take a shot on LA here as a sharp play, but also a
value play. Good team at a short price on a
losing streak. I got LA at -120 I think ESPN
(09:05):
bet still has -120 But shop around.
A lot of other books are as highas -125 Let's go Dodgers next
one for you. 7:40 PM Eastern Time, first pitch, let's go to
the Windy City, the Southside Chicago White Sox hosting the
Toronto Blue Jays now going intoit, we got the Jays or red hot.
I believe they're now in first place in the American League
(09:26):
East, overtaking the Yankees. They're 53 and 38.
They won last night. Series opener 8 to 4 covered and
actually not covered. I guess they cover the run line,
but came through, I should say as a -170 Rd. favorite.
So pitching match up for tonighton the South side, we have the
Jays going with the ready Chris Bassett.
He's 8 and four with a 4.32 ERA.Meanwhile, the White Sox are
(09:49):
going to go with the ready AaronSavalli just picked him up and
trade. He's one and five with a 4.6 O
ERA this year. What are you seeing across the
market for this one? Well, nothing but steam on the
Blue Jays. Give me the Jays in this one
guys. Toronto open this game as low as
a -. 170 Rd. favorite Chicago plus 150 home dog and sharps.
(10:10):
They're not worried about this big price.
They have gotten down hard, they've hammered Toronto.
Toronto's been steamed up -170 up to -195 some shops even get
into -200. Now the importance of having
multiple outs and finding the best price.
I got -185 on Toronto at Bet MGMand I still, I believe Bet MGM
still has -185 but again, shop around cuz again some looks
(10:33):
closer to -200 I like the bets. What's on the Jays?
It's very heavy pro and Joe. So not not just the public, but
smart money hammering Toronto here.
They're getting 92% bets, 94% dollars at DraftKings.
They're getting 79% bets, 84% dollars at Circa.
So basically you have a low bets, higher dollars pro and Joe
(10:55):
one way action split in favor ofToronto, which coincides of the
line move. And remember Publix just saying,
hey, take the Jays, good record,good winning team, fade the
White Sox, they stink. But wise guys don't think that
way. Wise guys are comparing their
projected number to what the odds makers are offering.
So maybe the sharps who set their own power ratings and
lines had Toronto maybe -190 -? 200 to begin with.
(11:18):
Which is why when it opened -170they hammered Toronto 'cause
that steam in their favor. Now the Jays are matching quite
a few systems for me if you lookat big Rd. favorites -185 or
more with at least $0.05 of steam in their favor.
Those teams are 30 and 9 this year, 77 percent, 11% ROI.
(11:38):
Jays in particular, 25 and 1464 percent, 8% ROI as a favorite.
That makes them the 5th best chalk team in baseball.
And oh by the way, when they're a favorite against the team who
missed the playoffs the previousyear, they improved to 19 and
968 percent, 13% ROI. I'm going to bank on the Jays
offense hopefully lighting up Savalley.
(11:58):
They're hitting 258 on the year,97 homers, 420 runs scored.
White Sox only hitting 222 as a team, 70 home runs, 315 runs
scored. In particular, if you look home
and road and righty lefty, Toronto is hitting 256 against
righties. That's the 7th best in baseball
and they're hitting 244 on the road.
(12:19):
That's 13th in baseball. So they're top 13 against
righties and I'm hitting on the road.
Flip it the other way. Chicago's hitting 219 against
Reddy's. That ranks 30th, dead last in
baseball. And they're hitting 226 at home,
that ranks 28th. So they're bottom of the barrel
in that spot. Blue Jays also have the better
bullpen. You know, I'd love a blowout.
You know, I'm sure we'll have tosweat this one.
(12:40):
But because you got to sweat every game, it's never easy.
That's why you got to embrace those rocking chair wins when
you get them. But advantage in the bullpen for
Toronto, 3.62 ERA versus 4 pointO2 for the White Sox and recent
performance. Toronto's red hot right now.
They've won nine of their last 10.
They're nine and one in the last10.
I should say, hitting 260. White Sox four and six in the
(13:02):
last 10, last 10 only hitting 238.
So I know it's a big number here, which is really important
to again, shop for the best line.
Get these, get these numbers early.
If you do want to follow the allsystems go best bet picks.
You would have gotten an alert from Juice Reel when I put this
in at -185. So it would have saved you
hopefully a little bit of juice.But again, shop around.
(13:24):
I still think -185 before I started the pod, it was still
-185 at Bet MGM. But again, shop around because
some books closer to -200 But I'll be sweating the J's -185
last bit of the night. Let's go out to sunny San Diego.
9:40 PM Eastern Time, first pitch, the D backs visiting the
Padres. Now the Diamondbacks, who are 45
(13:46):
and 46. They took last night's series
opener against San Diego six to three came through as a plus one
O 5 Rd. dog. And tonight three match we got
the D backs going with the readyMerrill Kelly.
He's seven and four 3.55 ERA. Meanwhile, the pods who are 48
and 42, they're going with the ready Nick Pavetta 9 and two
this year, 3.25 ERA. He's had a Goodyear.
(14:08):
What have we seen across the market for this one?
Looks like smart money banking on the Padres, the father's the
dads to bounce back because we saw the opener of San Diego -120
at home, Arizona run a + 100 Rd.dog and we've seen San Diego now
get steamed up -120 up to -130 some shops even as high now as
-135 S good 1015 cent steam in favor of San Diego.
(14:32):
Now if you look at the splits, they look pretty good on San
Diego. At DraftKings, 64% bets nearly
70% of the money on the dads at circa 90% bets 99% dollars on
the dads. So a lot of big money Pro and
Joe in favor of San Diego. And then I have a lot of system
matches. I got 6 lit up here on San
Diego. Home favorites who made the
(14:53):
playoffs the previous year getting at least $0.05 of line
movement in their favor. That system is 164 and 8167
percent, 5% ROI. Another angle here is if you
were a favorite in game two of anew series and you lost the
opener, you also made the playoffs the previous year and
you're getting that 5 cent line movement.
Those teams are 21 and 10 this year, 68 percent, 8% ROI.
(15:17):
If we isolate the Padres in particular, they're 23 and 1266
percent, 8% ROI as a home favorite.
That's the 9th best home favorite in baseball.
They're also 13 and 572 percent,20% ROI as a home favorite with
a line move. So when they're at home, they're
expected to win and the line goes in their favor.
They're getting some element of smart money.
(15:38):
Smart, you know, sharp money backing them.
They've been really good, winning basically three out of
four games. Padres also 23 and 1856%.
But a 13% ROI off a loss that makes them the fifth most
profitable bounce back team in baseball.
Another little angle here, Correlative betting favorite low
total total in this game is 7 1/2.
(15:58):
Some books are 8, but always a good sign when you're a favorite
to have a low total 88 or less because the fair amount of
expected runs scored more likelyto come from quote UN quote,
that better team was expected towin.
And oh by the way, Nick Pavetta,I'm a Red Sox fan.
I kind of agreed to let him go but man, probably Red Sox are
regretting that because he's hada great year.
But Nick Pavetta is 6 and O witha 2.55 ERA at home this year.
(16:22):
So I want to back Pavetta at home.
A little cherry on top, popped open the Juice Reel app.
I noticed an 11% sharp mush edgeon San Diego.
So 11% more of the sharper winning betters who have
downloaded Juice Reel are going with the pods.
So line move in their favor. Bounce back system match, a lot
of low bets, higher dollar splits.
Let's see if the pods can get a win for us tonight.
(16:44):
I'm on San Diego -130 so Dodgers, Blue Jays, San Diego,
can we find a way to get two of those?
That is the goal. You got a winning night.
So that about does it for episode 314 of the All Systems
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up.
And I start first as always by saying thank you.
(17:06):
Thank you for taking the time out of out of your day, out of
your busy lives. And we got a lot going on.
It's summer, you know, you're, you got, you know, going to the
beach, doing whatever you're doing, trying to stay cool.
It's been a heat wave in New England.
Luckily it's going to break later tonight and get back to
the 70s. I don't, I don't like these 90°
days too much for me. But anyway, I know it's summer.
I know you got other things going on, but the fact that you
(17:28):
guys are tuning in, grinding these, these breakdowns and
games with me, it really means alot.
I really, really appreciate it if you do like the pod and you
enjoy the breakdowns, you know, win, lose or draw, tail fade,
pick and choose, do whatever youwant.
But if you want to support the pod, please would you give it a
five star review. If you're listening on Spotify
or iTunes, if you want to leave a nice comment under the review
(17:48):
section or click the follow button.
That way you get a pop up alert on your smartphone as soon as I
post the pod each each early afternoon.
Or if you want to recommend the pod to a friend, I'd also very
much appreciate that. Next, if you enjoy this style of
betting breakdown, obviously we're looking at individual
games, but we the whole part of this pod is teaching a
philosophy or a foundation or kind of a way to attack sports
(18:12):
betting. And that is from the data-driven
perspective. So if you want to learn more
about data-driven betting, not just for baseball, but for all
sports, guess what I wrote a book.
If you want to go to Amazon.com and type in the everything guide
to sports betting, you can pick up a copy of that book.
It's got everything I've learnedin the industry, how lines are
set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to
(18:32):
locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online,
how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
management plan, chapters on allthe major sports.
It's all included in the Everything Guide to sports
betting. And while you're at it, while
you're picking up the everythingguide on Amazon, stay on
Amazon.com and then type in the NFL Sharp Betting playbook.
That's my new book. It comes out August 12th,
(18:53):
basically coming up on pretty much a month away, which is
crazy. But I can't wait for you guys to
hold the the sharp betting playbook in your hands and get
ready for the NFL season. So if you want to pre-order a
copy on Amazon, you'd make me happy.
You would make Triumph books, mypublisher, very happy.
So bring the everything guide and the sharp betting playbook
to the sports book. I'll sign them for you.
(19:14):
I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale, truly, whatever you want.
We'll get some nachos. We'll sweat the Jays, the
Dodgers and the Padres together tonight.
Next, have you downloaded rhythmand juice reel yet?
My two favorite sports betting apps make sure you download
rhythm. They do a great job of powering
this pod. It's it's not RYTHM, it's
RITHMM. So again, data backed AI models
(19:37):
and predictions for game bets and player props.
You got baseball and WNBA live in the rhythm app right now as
we await football, but then alsowe get to juice reel Juice reels
got so many great features. One of the ones that I always
like to promote is the fact thatif you download Juice Rail, you
can support the podcast. This podcast is free if you
(19:57):
would like to get the best bet picks that way.
I'd still hope you listen to thepod, but maybe you got to go do
something. You got to go to the dentist
office. I don't know.
You got to do whatever. You just want the place.
Support the pod. You can sign up for $4.99 a week
to get the ASG best bets on the juicer lap and hopefully beat
some closing lines. Because as soon as I bet them
(20:18):
and I'm synced up the juicer reel, I bet, I met bet MGM,
FanDuel, DraftKings, whatever. Caesar's ESPN bet, it goes right
to the juicer lap and you'll be able to follow those and tail or
fader, do whatever you like, butsupport the pod.
That's only $4.99 a week. You're also going to get the
role with Jackson. Best bet picks, the sharp mush
indicators, the arbitrage plays the shop for the best line
(20:39):
features. It's all available and included
when you download Juice Reel. So download Juice Reel, download
Rhythm, and do a favor for my friend Megan who runs Rhythm and
my buddy Ricky Gold who runs Juice Reel.
Give him a five star review in the App Store.
They would appreciate that. Next, do you have a live odds
page? If you don't have one, you need
(20:59):
one. I can't stress how important a
live odds page is. Honestly, I don't know how
you're betting without a live odds page because the first
thing you got to know, what are the games being played today?
What can I literally what games can I bet on?
Start times, live scoring, live line in game wagering once the
game gets going. But more importantly, it allows
you to track the market in real time.
So you're going to get a openingcolumn that never changes, just
(21:22):
gives you the opening number. Then you're going to get going
to get all the current prices. So you can shop for the best
line. You can see which direction the
line is moving. You can get line history.
You can identify steam. As soon as the team's getting
steam, they're getting big moneyacross the market.
The odds for that team get lit up in red.
Then you can figure out a book that hasn't adjusted yet, get a
good number. Also, I mentioned yesterday
(21:44):
Kyder Montero, a pitching changetook place.
My Odds Logic live odds page, there's a notification, Kyder
Montero is that has been named the starter.
So you get little notifications like that which help you.
So you need a live odds page. There's a bunch of them out
there. I'm not going to say Odds Logic
is the only one, but I think it's the best value because a
lot of them are, you know, 249 bucks a month, 300 bucks a
(22:06):
month, you know, $800 a month, literally.
I know one that's that cost thatmuch.
Odd Logic is 99 bucks a month and if you go to
oddslogic.com/josh 123, you're going to get a 7 day free trial
and then 50% off your first month.
So you can try for seven days for free.
First month it'll be 49 bucks. If you like it, you can
continue, but again, give it a shot.
(22:27):
Odds logic.com/josh 123 and my buddy James Perez, I know he
signed up yesterday for a trial and he's loving it so far.
So that about does it for episode 314 of the ASG Pod.
I'll leave you with two final things.
Whether I see you at the Borgatain Atlantic City, Twin River in
Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Rich
(22:50):
Park Casino, R.E.M Gem Springfield in my neck of the
woods in Massachusetts. We're out in in the desert where
the true grinders get down or Billy Walters sends his number
runners where the lowest juice possible is found the South
Point or sweat and Sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
stadium swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
(23:10):
We're going to get we're going to get to Circa.
Maybe we'll get a we'll get a burger at What's the name of
that burger place? It's so freaking good.
Oh my God, what's the next name of it?
Victory Burger. We'll get a victory burger.
But I'm going to see you at one side of the sports book.
You're going to see me. We're just going to look at each
other. Bust out of broom from the
janitor's closet and do a littlelittle Frank Sinatra dance.
(23:31):
What do you think? Because again, 3 and O last
night, show me a Giants ticket, an Angels ticket, a Tigers
ticket. First one's on me, next one's on
you. We'll sweat some games at the
book together. So as always, guys 3 and OO and
three, two and one, one and two.After a great night, after a
terrible night, grinding again, hot cold summer in the middle.
(23:51):
When we're great and running hot, whenever as good as we
think, when we're struggling andit feels like we can't get a
winner, whenever as bad as we think, we're always somewhere in
the middle. We just got to keep grinding
this situate this, this philosophy long term because
that's how you see the fruits, your labor data-driven betters.
Remember, maybe you know by now you're not going to become a
millionaire overnight. The whole point is to grind long
term and steadily, quietly, you know, kind of consistently build
(24:15):
our bankroll. That's always the goal.
So if we can do that, if we can find games that fit our model,
make bets with our head and not our heart, games that are
against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
avoid parlays and get that CLV. If we can do that, and I'm
pretty confident that we can then guess what we're going to
be successful sports betters. So have a great Tuesday night,
everybody. Let's get a couple winners here
(24:36):
on the diamond. We right back at it tomorrow for
a big hump day edition episode 315 of the All Systems Go Sports
Betting podcast. Good luck everybody and have a
great Tuesday night.
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