Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:19):
Hello, and welcome to episode 315 of the All Systems Go Sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
Happy Wednesday. It's hump day.
That's right, halfway through our work week and we're going to
(00:41):
get right back to what we love doing guys, which is making
data-driven bets. You hear me say it every day,
but what's better than grinding?I would argue again, there's a
lot of ups and downs, but one ofthe most exciting, challenging,
but also rewarding sports to grind.
It's a long season, a lot of games every day, but we keep
picking our spots. So we're going to get right back
to Major League Baseball for thetrue grinders.
(01:02):
So I do have a three pack of sweats for you, all favorites,
all kind of shortish favorites, so we can go 2 and one each.
Got a winning day. We'd have a nice little return
here. I also have a podcast
announcement because there's something that I've been working
on for quite a while and I finally tweeted it out from the
ASG Podcast Twitter page. If you haven't been following,
(01:23):
you can always follow the All Systems Go Podcast Twitter page
at under score, ASG under score Podcast.
So I'll give you that exciting announcement here in one second
and then aside from our three bets here for tonight, we're
going to see if we can keep our winning streak going because
last night had another winning day 2 and 1 + 0.31 units had a
(01:44):
nice hit with the Toronto Blue Jays.
Hope everyone's able to catch that bet because it was an
abbreviated 7 inning game that they called because of rain.
But pretty much every book should have paid you out on that
one. So the Jays were nice to see as
a road favorite. Sharp line move.
And then late the Padres, the dads, they made a sweat, but
thank God they came through. It was a nothing nothing game.
(02:05):
And boy was the luck on our sidebecause there's so many times
where the Diamondbacks had basesloaded, one out, two guys on,
nobody out. And Pavetta and the bullpen for
the Padres just kept getting outof it.
And all we needed was one run. It was a one nothing win.
Luis Arise, the guy who has a great batting average but
doesn't hit much for power, had a solo home run.
And then our guy Suarez shut thedoor.
(02:27):
So nice little 1 nothing win with the Podge Padres.
Only loser. It was the Dodgers.
I don't know what's up with the Dodgers, man, They are.
They're in a bad place right now.
They've lost five straight. I think it's only their second
five game losing streak like in the last like half decade or
something. So ironically, the one team that
loses is one of the best teams or maybe the best team in
baseball. But either way, guys, This is
why I love grinding baseball 15 games a day.
(02:49):
Let's pick out three. Let's try to go 2 and one
improves as many winning days aspossible, which is exactly what
we did last night. So before we dive in our sweats
here for today, again, 3 pack ofMLB, I have a podcast
announcement. So here's the big podcast
announcement. As you guys know, the All
systems Go pod was created abouta year and a half ago.
(03:11):
I think it was back in March of 2024, So maybe a little less
than a year and a half ago. But anyway, it's always been a
dream of mine to have a merch store.
Why? Because there are a lot of
phrases we talked about on the podcast.
Hey, fade the public, fade the trendy dog, reverse line
movement. I have a whole list of them
here. But my dream always was to
(03:33):
again, create a merch store, monetize the pod.
Of course, I'm not going to lie to you because me and the wife,
we got plans we'd love to, I don't know, expand and there's
some things around the house youwant to do.
So my wife's like, hey, you got it.
You got to, you got to monetize this pod, make some money.
So I'm not going to lie to you. Part of it is to monetize the
pod, but to me, more importantly, it is to kind of
(03:54):
popularize data-driven betting in the way we approach betting.
So I would love and I have a dream of, you know, you walk
into any sports book in America,the Borgata in Jersey or
somewhere out in Vegas at the South Point or Circa or wherever
you're at, like me, if I'm goingup to the Nash in Nashville, New
Hampshire or maybe going to the Encore in Boston.
And while you're sitting there at the sports book, you see
(04:15):
somebody sweating a game and they're wearing a sweatshirt
that says fade the trendy dog. Or maybe you walk up to somebody
at the counter, you're getting ready to place a bet at the
ticket window. Guy in front of you has a shirt
that says, hedging is for landscapers.
So it took me a while to figure out, hey, I have all these
phrases. I had to work with my the Montag
(04:35):
Group, which is my agency, did agreat job of creating these
little logos for different phrases, as well as helping me
create the podcast logo. So it was a long time coming.
I landed on a website calledspring.com,
basicallyspring.com. It's kind of like Shopify or
some of these other websites, orbasically you can upload your
(04:56):
logos and you create your merch and you pick what you want to
sell. And then I had to test it out.
So I ordered a sample of a sweatshirt, which is hanging
right behind me in my little makeshift podcast room here in
my house, in my basement. Nothing too flashy, but this is
where all the all the magic happens.
But I got it in the mail, I tried it on, it fit great, and I
(05:18):
said, you know what, I think it's time to let this thing
loose and get it out to the public.
So I tweeted out the link from the ASG Pod page.
The link is all, it's a little wonky
all-systems-go-podcast.creatordashspring.com,so you don't have to worry about
that. I will tweet out the link.
(05:39):
I will put it in the the bio description of the podcast.
I'll tweet out left and right. I'll tag it to the top of the
Twitter page from the ASG pod page.
But basically, if you wanted to support the pod and you want to
get a sweatshirt that says fade the public or dance with the one
who brung you, let me just read all the ones I have.
Line freeze. Win the damn game. data-driven
(06:01):
wise guy. Let me keep cruising.
I got 6 pages of this stuff. It's taking a while.
Bet numbers, not teams. Contrarian bet reverse line
movement. Let's keep cruising.
I got more dog to fave line move, low bets higher dollars.
What else we have? Don't bet parlays 52.38% I got
more here. Dogs and unders follow the
(06:23):
steam. Trust the bet.
Splits always get the hook. I got more.
What else do I have? Yeah, hedging is for
landscapers. Mentioned that one Belt with
your head, not your heart. Fade the public fade the trendy
dog ASG pod. Always money line.
Short fares. I might have mentioned that one,
but it's all now available in the All Systems Go merch store.
So if you want to pick up a T-shirt, a regular sweatshirt, A
(06:47):
hoodie, a mug, there's notebooks.
So there's literally a notebook.This is pretty cool.
You know that says hey, fade thetrendy dog.
And if you're like me, you have a notebook where you write down
all your your plays and do your your legwork there stickers all
included. So bear with me.
I'm going to continue to tweak it, add more products.
If you guys have anything that you would love to see on the
(07:09):
merch store, let me know, but isnow available for at spring.com
and I'll tweet out that link. So if you want to get yourself a
sweatshirt, support the pod. I think they're pretty cool and
I got one for myself and I'm already starting to wear it very
proudly. So let's get this thing to the
moon. And I'll tell you this too.
Like my wife loves caller Daddy,the Caller Daddy podcast and
(07:33):
Alex Cooper, the girl, she has amerch line called Unwell.
And like my wife is always talking about, you need to get a
merch store for your podcast. So that was a little bit of the
the thought process there as well.
But anyway, they're all located available online and now you can
get your ASG merch. So it is it is officially here
and it's been a long time coming.
And today's the day I said, you know what we should unveil it
(07:56):
today and the dog days of summer.
So let me know what you think. And again, I'll I'll link the
I'll put the link in the all systems go pod bio description
and you'll see it all across Twitter and the Internet, as
well as my Twitter handle at Josh under score insights.
But the merch store, it's open, baby.
Come get your merch. Anyway guys, with that being
(08:16):
said, two in one night got 1/3 of a unit.
Let's keep it rolling here for today.
Without further ado, 3 plays. Let's get right into it.
So first bet on the board for me.
Let's go to the Bronx 7 O 5:00 PM Eastern Time first pitch, the
Seattle Mariners visiting the New York Yankees now set the
stage here. Let's talk bet splits, line
movement, system matches. I'll give you my play for this
(08:37):
one. So last night, series opener, we
saw the Yankees who are 50 and 41, had a big win 10 to 3,
easily cashed as a -130 home favorite pitching rematch for
tonight. Little interesting because the
Mariners who are now 48 and 43, they're going with the ready
Logan Evans. He's three and two with a 2.96
ERA. And the Yankees are going to go
(08:57):
with the ready Cam Schlitter. Schlitter Schlitter.
I don't know how to pronounce it.
Anyway, I never heard of this kid prior to today.
I did my research. He is making his MLB debut.
He is one of the top pitching prospects in the Yankee system.
And he so far in the minors before his call up, he went six
and six with a 2.82 ERA. But I was reading about how
(09:19):
they're pretty high in this kid Cam Schlitter, who might be a
good one. Now this line open with the
Yankees listed as around a -, 145 home favorite Seattle plus
125 Rd. dog. And one thing we always talk
about is, you know, a game opensat a pick em.
Which direction does it move? Because again, maybe the odds
makers have it as a, you know, acoin flip game, but the wise
guys don't. So pay attention to the move.
(09:41):
I also think it's important whensomeone is making their MLB
debut, which direction does the line move?
Because it could go one of two ways.
This kid Cam Schlitter might getlit up.
It's bright lights, his debut, you know, a lot of pressure.
Maybe he's not ready for it. Or maybe the wise guys say, hey,
this kids going to pitch. Well, Seattle has never seen him
before. Element of surprise, that sort
of thing. And really, it's been the latter
(10:03):
here because this line has movedfurther toward Cam Schlitter and
the New York Yankees. Yankees went from -145 up to
-155. Some shops now as high as -160.
I jumped on New York, NY at -154at FanDuel a little bit earlier
today. Looks like -155 is your best
price at ESPN bet. But it's notable to me that you
got a kid making his debut and yet the smart money is backing
(10:26):
the kid, not going against them.You look at the splits at Circa
really jumped out to me. The Yankees are only getting 36%
of money line bets out in the desert, but 58% of money line
dollars, That's actually technically a reverse line move.
Low bets, higher dollars fade The trendy dog split again, all
those little phrases. You can get your, your, your
sweatshirts at the ASG pod merchstore with those phrases.
(10:49):
Again, we're taking this thing to the moon.
I want I want to see people witha reverse line movement
sweatshirt at the book all across America anyway.
Low bets, higher dollar split line move toward the Yankees.
Also have 4 system matches lit up on New York.
Home favorites off a win who made the playoffs the previous
season. 192 and 9667 percent 6% ROI.
(11:10):
This year. Non division home favorites off
a win getting $0.05 of steam or more in their favor. 137 and
6967 percent, 5% ROI. I am going to bank on New York's
bats hopefully getting to Evans.They scored ten runs yesterday.
So let's hope that they, you know, kind of move that over
here to tonight. But the Yankees overall are
hitting two 56143 homers, 472 runs scored.
(11:35):
Seattle's hitting two 47120 homers, 405 runs scored.
We really don't know we're in yet from Schlitter again is
making his debut. But hey, the lines moving in his
favor. But I did notice Evans has kind
of a big difference home and road.
At home he's been really good two and O 2.28 ERA.
On the road, one and two 3.68 ERA.
(11:55):
So again, I don't know if he's ever pitched in the Yankee
Stadium before. Let's see if we can get this
rookie to pitch well and the Yankees bats to get to Seattle.
So I'm on the Yankees. Good sharp line move, good
system matches again, fishy linemove in favor of a kid making
his debut. Dear God, Schlitter, come come
to pitch tonight. Hope, hope you pitch well, but
(12:17):
I'm on the Yankees -154 again, looks like -155 at ESPN.
Bet is your best price right now, but shop around.
Some books a little bit higher -160 next, but on the board.
Same start time. Let's go to Baltimore though. 7
O 5:00 PM Eastern Time, first pitch, the New York Mets
visiting the Baltimore Orioles now.
Last night we saw the Mets 53 and 39.
(12:40):
Won the series opener 7 to 6 andextra innings against Baltimore.
Came through as a - 125 Rd. favorite for tonight pitching
matchup. We got the Mets going with the
lefty David Peterson. He's six and four 3.18 ERA.
Meanwhile, the O's are going to go with the ready Tomo Yuki
Sugano. He's six and five with a 4.44
ERA. So what do you see across the
(13:01):
market here? Well, if you like the Yankees, I
think you like the Mets. Similar opening number and
similar line move because we sawthe Mets open around -145
Orioles are on a + 125 home dog,and we've seen the Mets now get
steamed up to closer to -150 -, 155 even -160 right now.
(13:22):
So I jumped on the mats a littleearlier today.
If you want to follow the all systems, go best bets on the
Juice Reel app. You can get them earlier in the
day for $4.99 a week, but I got them at -148 at FanDuel.
Looks like -154 is the best price for the Mets right now at
FanDuel. Others are as high as -160 so
definitely shop around. But aside from that, line move
(13:44):
toward the Mets. 10-15 cents of steam in their favor.
Pretty good bet split at Circa out in the desert. 64% of bets,
90% of dollars are on the Mets. So further evidence and
validation of those bigger, morerespected wagers.
Going with New York. I do have a couple good system
matches on the Mets. One would be a sweet spot non
division Rd. favorite. So if you're a sweet spot, non
(14:06):
division Rd. favorite between -135 and -160 and you're getting
some line movement in your favor, at least $0.05.
Those teams are 30 and 1764 percent, 7% ROI this year.
Mets also in particular really good as a favorite.
They're 42 and 22 as a favorite,66%, four percent ROI.
(14:26):
That's the 6th best chalk team in baseball.
And then if you layer on a little bit here in terms of
being a favorite, but then also getting at least $0.10 of steam
move in their favor, the Mets are 17 and seven in that spot,
71 percent, 10% ROI. New York does have just some
classic interleague favorite value, lack of familiarity
(14:46):
benefiting quote UN quote the better team.
And if you isolate interleague Rd. favorites -150 or more the
spot that the Mets are in here tonight, those teams are 33 and
1667% with a 5% ROI. Mets offense has been better
than the Orioles this year, so let's hope the bats, Alonzo and
Soto, and the guys can get to Sugano tonight.
(15:07):
But they're hitting two 46121 homers, 409 runs scored.
Orioles, meanwhile, hitting two 39108 homers, 377 runs scored.
And then if you look at lefty righty splits, we have the Mets
going up against the righty. Well, they're 12th in baseball
hitting 249 against righty's. Meanwhile, Baltimore going up
against Peterson, they're hitting just 222 against
(15:29):
lefties. That ranks 24th in baseball.
So again, if you like the Yankees, I think you like the
Mets opening as their own. A modest -145 favorite have now
been steamed up -155 -, 160 somegood system matches.
And really, I like that system, that interleague Rd. favorite
-150 or more. That's cashing 2/3 of the time
this year. So add it all up.
(15:49):
I'm back in the Mets in this one.
I got New York -148 at FanDuel. Looks like -154 at FanDuel is
your best price right now. Last bite of the night.
Washington Nationals visiting the Saint Louis Cardinals, 7:45
PM Eastern Time. First pitch, Cardinals 49 and
43. Took the opener last night, 4 to
2. Came through as a big -240 home
(16:11):
favorite. Pitch a match up here for
tonight. The Nationals, who are 37 and
54, are going to go with the lefty Mackenzie Gore.
He's 3:00 and 8:00 with a 3.11 ERA.
Meanwhile, the Cards are going with the ready Andre Palante,
who's five and four with a 4.1 OERA.
So we've seen across the market for this one.
Will Saint Louis open this game?Very short -120 home favorite
(16:33):
Washington around 8 + 100 row dog.
And we've seen nothing but movement in favor of the
Cardinals. Cardinals went from -120 up to
-130 now up to -135 some shops even creeping toward -140.
So pretty good one way movement.As soon as this line was
available to bet, it's just onlyshot up in One Direction towards
Saint Louis. I got Saint Louis -130 at ESPN
(16:57):
bet. I think they might still be
available -130 but shop around because again, so much closer to
-135 -, 140. Look at the bets what's here.
They look good at both DraftKings and Circa.
At DraftKings, the cards are getting 64% bets but nearly 70%
of the money. And then in at Circa in Vegas,
73% bets, 98% dollars on Saint Louis.
(17:19):
So out in the desert even more bullish wiseguy wagers going
with the Cardinals. I do have a few system matches
lit up on Saint Louis. Home favorites in the second
game of a series after winning the first one.
They are one O 6 and 6064 percent. 3% ROI this year.
Nothing amazing but profitable. And then non division home
favorites off a win getting steam $0.05 or more.
(17:41):
They're 137 and 6967% with a 5% ROI.
Saint Louis does have some correlative betting here.
Value because it's a very low total of 7 1/2 or 8, kind of
bopping around between 7 1/2 and8.
Maybe you have dueling money over 7 1/2 and then under 8, but
either way, even if you take the8:00, that's still a low total,
(18:01):
which would match as a favorite low total.
Fewer amount of expected run scored, more likely to come from
quote UN quote the better team. I'm going to bank on the bats.
I know Mackenzie Gore's had a good year.
He was a part of that Soto tradea few years ago.
I believe he made the All Star game.
But the Cardinals are hitting 251 on the season, 93 homers,
418 runs scored. Nats hitting 24787 homers, 399
(18:24):
runs scored. And then just a little bit of
home Rd. Saint Louis has been a pretty
good home team. 27 and 17 at home, Washington 19 and 26 on
the road. Also the Nats, they just fired
their GM and they fired their coach as well.
Martinez, he was, I believe it wasn't he Joe Maddens right hand
man for quite a while. So I don't know, you fire your
(18:45):
GM, you fire a coach. Is that a team that you know
gets a fire lit under them or isit, hey, let's pack it in our
year? Maybe that's a negative in terms
of the vibes. Didn't hurt that I popped open
the juicer lap. Nothing crazy, but a 5% sharp
mush edge on Saint Louis, 5% more of the winning betters here
leaning with the Cardinals. So we got a line move, we got
(19:07):
some good splits, good system matches.
I'm going to bank on Palante hopefully pitching well on the
bats, getting to Gore. I got the cards -130 at ESPN
bet. So Yankees, Mets and Cards, can
we find a way to get two out of three?
He got a winning night. That, of course, is always the
goal. So that about does it for
episode 315 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
(19:29):
powered by Rhythm. Of course.
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
start first by saying thank you.Thank you for taking the time
out of your day, out of your busy lives.
Officially, we're now in the dogdays of summer.
You guys keep tuning in and grinding baseball with me.
I appreciate you. Thank you so much.
If you do enjoy the pod, you want to give it a five star
review on Spotify or iTunes. Hey, I would, I would love that.
(19:51):
Also, if you wanted to leave a nice comment under the review
section or click the follow button or recommend the pod to a
friend, I also would. I'd never say no to that.
Either next, if you enjoy the style of betting data-driven,
sharp contrarian betting people say who do you like in baseball
today? I say, I don't know, let me look
at the the betting data of the market and then I'll tell you.
(20:12):
But that's kind of the way we approach betting.
No bias, no favoritism. I don't wake up to you saying,
you know what I'm a Red Sox fan.I should bet the Red Sox.
Well, maybe I should because they keep crushing the Colorado
Rockies. But you get my point.
We are and again, I have a merchstore sweatshirt that you can
get that says bet numbers, not teams.
And that's really the way we approach betting.
So if this style of betting, maybe you never knew about it
(20:34):
before or maybe you had an idea and you know this approach has
helped you to make smart bets and turn a profit and beat
closing lines. Well, if you want to learn more
about data-driven betting or letme know you appreciate the pot
or maybe there's someone in yourlife who could use some
data-driven data-driven tips. Maybe they want to break into
betting but don't know how it works.
They don't have a strategy or system, or maybe they bet and
(20:56):
lose a lot and they should learnto make bets of their head and
not their heart. Again, I got a sweatshirt that
says that too. But if that's the case, I'd love
for you guys to go to Amazon.comand type in the Everything Guide
to Sports betting. It's the first book ever wrote.
I'm very proud of it, but it's got everything I've learned in
the industry. How lines are set, how and why
they move. How to read line movement, how
(21:16):
to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online,
how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
management plan, how to go contrarian.
It's all included in the everything guide to sports
betting. And while you're picking up the
everything guide on Amazon, stayon Amazon.com, type in the NFL
sharp betting playbook. Can't believe it.
It's coming out August 12th, a month from Saturday.
(21:37):
Cannot believe we're getting close here.
But if you wanted to pre-order acopy and get ready for football,
you'd make me happy. You'd make my publisher very
happy. And then you know what you got
to do? You got to bring the everything
guide in the NFL Sharp betting playbook to the sports book.
I'll meet you at the Nash in NewHampshire in Nashua and we'll
sweat some games together, hopefully catch some baseball
tickets together next. Have you downloaded Rhythm and
(22:00):
Juice Reel yet? Well, if you haven't, what are
you waiting for? Download Rhythm great for their
AI backed models and predictionsfor game bets and player props.
WNBA as well as MLB is lit up right now and then also Juice
Reel. I'll pass the hat right now.
Hey, if you like the pod, get a sweatshirt from the new merch
store. But also I'd love for you guys
to sign up to get the all systems go official best bet
(22:22):
picks only available on Juice Reel, the Juice Reel app.
So you can sign up to get them there.
They cost $4.99 a week and you'll get the plays earlier in
the day as soon as I bet them. Get the plays on the weekend, of
course. And then you're also going to
get the Robo Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush
indicators, the arbitrage plays,the shop for the best line
future sync up your sports booksto the app.
(22:45):
It's all located there. So download rhythm, download
Juice Reel, give them a five star review in the App Store.
Next you have a live odds page. If you don't, you need one.
I don't know how you're betting sports if you don't have a live
odds page. It's so important.
What are the line open at? How is it moved?
Where's the money flowing? Pull up the line history, shop
for the best line. That's really the huge part of
(23:05):
it. Locate steam.
That's super important as well. When something gets lit up in
red on the odds page, you know it's moving.
And if you can jump on it beforeit falls or moves too much, hey,
you're going to get a good number, especially with totals.
I tweeted out earlier but I didn't play it.
But I didn't notice on the Giants game every book was at 8
1/2. I was looking at the Odds Logic
(23:25):
live odds page total across the board and that entire row gets
lit up in red. It's falling to 8.
So if you can still find an 8 1/2, hey, you're beating the
closing line. So another benefit to Odds
Logic. So if you want to give it a
shot, go to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
That's a 7 day free trial and 50% off your first month of
service. So that about does it for
(23:47):
today's episode. On Hump Day episode 315, I'll
leave you with a final couple final thoughts as always.
One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown in Connecticut, at the Encore in
Boston, or Plain Ridge Park Casino, MGM Springfield in my
neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
We're out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
(24:09):
Or Billy Walters sends his number runners where the lowest
choose possible is found at the South Point.
Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
swimming pool when he cashed a big ticket at Circa.
You're going to show me a Blue Jays ticket, a Padres ticket,
and guess what? We're going to sweat some some
more baseball games here together tonight.
First one's on me, next one's onyou.
We'll post about the book and hopefully cash them some
(24:31):
tickets. So as always, guys two and one,
one and two, three and OO and three.
After a great night or a terrible night or just grinding
again, we're hot, we're never asgood as we think.
When we're cold, we're never as bad as we think.
Never forget that betting is difficult.
It's hard to beat the razor sharp lines.
It's hard to overcome the juice.It's hard to avoid bad beats.
So when you're doing well, it gives you some confidence and it
(24:53):
makes you a little bit give you some pride.
When you're struggling, don't think you're terrible and you
stink. You just got to keep sticking
with it because again, that's a difficult business to win
consistently at. But that's the challenge.
That's why I love betting. I know I'll never be perfect.
I know I'll never I'll never winevery single day, but it's the
challenge of trying to that makes it worthwhile, especially
(25:15):
when you can post a winning day.So as always, guys, if we can
find those games that fit our model, you might know it by now.
But if you don't goes a little something like this against the
public with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays,
get that CLV. If we can do that long term,
we're going to be successful sports bettors.
So have a great Wednesday night.Everybody check out the merch
(25:35):
store. I'm pretty proud of that.
Pick up your your I don't know your ASG or fade the trendy dog
sweatshirt or T-shirt or mug, whatever you want to do.
And I'd love to see you guys rocking the gear at the sports
book. I'll be the way guys.
We'll be right back at it tomorrow for a big thirsty
Thursday edition, episode 316 ofthe all systems go sports
betting podcast powered by rhythm.
(25:57):
Good luck everybody and have a great Wednesday night.