July 11, 2025 • 24 mins
In Episode 317, Josh dishes out a 3-pack of MLB plays for Friday night.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:19):
Hello, and welcome to episode 317 of the All Systems Go Sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Friday. Our work week is coming to an
end. We got another big weekend upon
(00:40):
us here, guys, believe it or not, the month of July rolling
on here pretty quick. Almost halfway through.
Before you know it, it'll be August, then we'll have the Hall
of Fame Game, we'll have collegefootball, NFL.
But I don't want to get too out ahead of ourselves here, guys,
because even though it's the dogdays of summer and a lot of
betters might take off the summer, they don't want to grind
MLB. Too many games, too long of a
season, too many ups and downs. I get that.
(01:03):
No, no, no, not the ASG pod grind grinders with blinders
crew. We're going to continue to bet
and hopefully turn a profit betting baseball from first
pitch opening day all the way tothe final out of the World
Series. So with that being said guys, I
do have another 3 pack of sweatsfor you all three relatively
short money line favorite. So if we can get two out of
(01:23):
three each out of winning day, that'll be a nice way to end our
week and also want to wish everyone a great weekend ahead.
Just a reminder, no podcasts on the weekends but you can still
get the plays by following the ASG podcast.
Official best bet bet a best betpics on the juice reel app.
You can get them for $4.99 a week.
That's right 5 bucks for seven days of plays.
(01:45):
You can either tail fade. Do what you like, but I consider
a tip jar tip your podcast host.This pod is free.
I always make this joke. It's not really a joke, but hey,
you go out to a nice dinner, youhave a good time, server treats
you well, you give him a tip if you go to the bar, bartender
fills your water when you need it, gets you a new drink when
you want it. You give the bartender a tip.
So if you want to tip your podcast host, you can do it in
(02:06):
the form of dropping a $5.00 bill in the All Systems Go
Official Best Bets page on the Juice Reel app.
You can also read my breakdowns and write ups from visen.com on
Saturdays and Sundays. I still write those seven days a
week, so you get that 3 pack of plays tomorrow morning and
Sunday morning. And you can always follow me on
Twitter at Josh Under Score Insights.
(02:26):
Now before we dive in our sweatsand steam off into the weekend
on getaway day, we got to talk about last night because it was
a nice little night for us. 2 and 1 + 0.64 units.
Had a great hit with the Red Soxbecause the Sox were up early.
They blew it and they stormed back.
They're down 3 to 1. I think it was a 7th or 8th
inning and a huge hit by Roman or Marcela Meyer.
(02:47):
And then you also had say Don Rafaela with A2 run single up
the middle and the bullpen of the Red Sox, Chapman held it
down. Nice win there with the Sox
extending their winning streak to seven and making me a bit of
a believer for the over 85 1/2 win total.
For those of you who are sweating, Red Sox over 85 1/2
wins. Also had a nice sit with the
Saint Louis Cardinals. You never know where you're
(03:08):
going to get with Miles Michaelis.
You can get lit up or pitch a gem.
Well, lucky for us, he pitched well last night.
Cardinals won, came through for the team, 8 nothing win, and
then also their eight to one win.
The one loser though, I tell youwhat guys, it was a sharp play
that I'll make 10 times out of 10.
But in the back of my mind, I'm like this guy Jack Kochanowitz,
He could get lit up and he did get lit up.
(03:30):
So Patrick Corbin got the best of us last night, loser there
with the Angels. But 2IN1 eking out a winning
day, getting 2/3 of a unit. We'll take that every single
time, put it back in our pocket,reinvest in our bankroll and
hopefully have another winning day today to finish off the
week. So that being said, huge card
today, 16 games overall doubleheader for Cleveland and
(03:51):
the White Sox. But I did find 3 bets that
caught my eye. So let's waste no further time
and get into the action for tonight.
So first bit on the board for me, let's go to A7 O 5:00 PM
Eastern Time, first pitch, the Miami Marlins visiting the
Baltimore Orioles. Let's talk some line movement.
That's what system matches and I'll give you my play for this
one. So going into it, we got the
(04:11):
Marlins 42 and 50. They just split A4 game set
against the Reds. They lost 6 to nothing in
yesterday's series finale as a +140 Rd. dog.
Meanwhile the Orioles 42 and 50 on the air, same exact record,
just took two or three though against the Mets, they had one
game that was rained out and they had lost the first game.
But then they swept the doubleheader.
(04:31):
Yesterday they won three to one as a + 120 home dog.
Then they won again 7:00 to 2:00as a + 105 home dog.
So pitching match up here for tonight.
This Inter league series opener got a couple radies on the bump.
The Marlins are going with the ready Edward Cabrera.
He's three and three with a 3.33ERA.
Orioles, meanwhile, going with Dean Kramer, seven and seven,
(04:53):
4.53 ERA. So I've just seen across the
market for this one, this game open with the Birds listed
around a -, 130 home favorite. Miami around a + 110 home dog.
And basically, we've seen nothing but steam in favor of
the Orioles. Give me the Orioles in this one,
guys. Baltimore has been steamed up
-130 now all the way up to -140 -, 145.
(05:17):
I jumped on the Orioles at -136 at FanDuel, which might still be
available, but it is moving. So definitely try to find the
lowest juice price you can. But aside from the line
movement, 10-15 cents toward Miami, I really like the bet
splits. On or toward Baltimore, I should
say, I really like the bet splits on the Orioles.
If you look at DraftKings, Baltimore's getting 69% of money
(05:40):
line bets but 75% of money line dollars.
And then over at Circa, this onereally caught my eye out in
Vegas again, Circa, you got to get there.
You got to make it a a point at least once in your life to go to
the Disney's. Disney's for adults, I should
say, we're pretty much the best place in the world if you're
betting on sports because you got the big screen and you got
(06:00):
stadium swim and all that fun and games.
But circa whole point why I referenced circa is that they
pride themselves on accept accepting smart money, big money
from respected betters, not turning sharp betters away or
limiting them like a lot of books do, which I think is a
wrong thing to do. You get bad PR and you're kind
of, you know, giving out a chance to get an insight into
(06:22):
where the sharps are betting anduse it to your advantage.
But anyway, Circa, only 43% of money line bets are on the
Orioles, but they're getting 97%of money line dollars.
So that is a huge low bets, higher dollars, sharp money
discrepancy in favor of Baltimore.
I do have a bunch of system matches on the Orioles.
I got 6 lit up right now. Here's some of the best ones.
(06:45):
When both teams are below 500, which is the case here, take the
home favorite off a win that would match with Baltimore.
That system is 50 and 26 this year. 66 percent, 6% ROI.
Home favorites made the playoffsthe previous year and they're
also getting line movement in their favor.
Remember Orioles struggle this year, but they did make the
postseason last year. They're getting the line move
(07:06):
here today. That system is 193 and 9866%
with a 5% ROI. You also look at non division
home favorites off a win with steam $0.05 or more in their
favor. That system is 138 and 7166%
with a 5% ROI. Orioles also have just that
classic interleague favorite value.
So lack of familiarity benefiting, quote UN quote the
(07:29):
better team. And I'm also going to bank
hopefully on Kramer pitching well, he has not been good on
the road 3 and five 5.83 ERA. But at home, knock on wood.
Hope this continues. Four and two 2.37 ERA.
So the O's are hot. Swept the doubleheader
yesterday. They're at home here tonight.
They got a line move in their favor with good bet splits and
(07:49):
good system matches. I'm back in Kramer and the
Birds, not Kramer from Seinfeld,although did you guys see this?
I saw a tweet. Larry David, I always wish he
continued Curb. Curb's done one of my favorite
shows, but he's, I guess, getting ready to debut a new
sketch comedy on HBO. So I cannot wait to see what
Larry David's got cooked up. But not the Kramer from
(08:10):
Seinfeld. Total tangent, Kramer for the
bird. So I'm on Baltimore, guys, shop
around. I got Orioles -136 again, you do
have some books as high as -140 - 145.
But let's go Birds. Next step for you. 8:10 PM
Eastern Time, first pitch, let'sgo out to Minnesota where the
Twins are hosting the PittsburghPirates.
(08:32):
Now, going into this one, we gotthe Pirates 38 and 56.
They just got swept by the Royals.
They lost that series finale 4 to 3 as a + 160 row dog.
On the other hand, the Twinkies 45 and 48 did just take two or
three though at home against theCubs.
Couldn't get the win or couldn'tget the sweep.
I should say. They lost 8 to 1 yesterday as a
-1 O 5 home dog. So pitching match up here for
(08:55):
tonight looks pretty good. We got Paul Skeens on the bump
for the Pirates. Poor guy can't get a win.
I hope he doesn't get a win tonight intent, but he's 4:00
and 7:00. Not a great one loss record, but
he's got a 1.94 ERA. He's been great.
Twins, meanwhile, going to readyJoe Ryan 8 and four, 2.76 ERA.
And there's rumors I'm a Sox fanof maybe Jaron Duran and a
(09:17):
prospect traded to the Twins forJoe Ryan.
So I would take that as a Red Sox fan.
But anyway, we open this game. Minnesota around a -. 120 home
favorite. Pittsburgh around a + 100 Rd.
dog. And the public doesn't know what
to do here because they love back in Paul schemes.
But then again, Pittsburgh is a bad team yet they're getting
plus money. Minnesota good pitcher on the
(09:39):
bump, but they're laying a minusnumber.
Public really doesn't know what to do here.
So we have a 5050 ticket count at DraftKings and what we always
talk about, we try to compare the splits to the line movement
and then kind of discern kind ofwhat that line movement and
split relationship or ratio is telling us.
Well, 5050 tickets are right down the middle.
There's no clear contrarian side.
(10:00):
There's no clear public side. Theoretically, if the tickets
are down the middle, you would expect the line not really to
move. So in a vacuum, you know,
balanced action, no need for theodds makers to adjust the number
up or down. However, there are situations
where even though it's 5050 tickets, you do see a line move
in One Direction. And I love going with the team
getting the 5050 line move because that tells me even
(10:21):
though the public doesn't know which side to take, wise guys
have moved the number and causedthat number to move in favor of
one team or the other. And it looks like that movement
is toward Minnesota because the Twins, even though they're only
getting half the tickets, have jumped up -120 up to -140 some
shops even -145 I jumped on Minnesota at -134 at FanDuel.
(10:43):
Aside from the 5050 line move out at Circa, 67% of money line
bets, 96% of money line dollars are on Minnesota.
So even though the public DraftKings, you know, across the
country, all the drunk guys at the bar, the average Joe's, they
don't know what to do. But out at Circa, big money is
going with Minnesota. So I want to back Minnesota.
(11:04):
A couple good system matches on the Twins as well.
Both teams missed the playoffs the previous year.
Take the home interleague favorite, that system is 62 and
33 this season, 65 percent, 7% ROI.
Both teams are coming off a loss.
Take the team getting steamed $0.10 or more.
Once again matching on Minnesota, that system is 36 and
(11:24):
2163% with a 10% ROI. Minnesota also some correlative
betting value in terms of a favorite.
Low total because it's a very low total.
It was 7 some books, most books even.
Down to 6 1/2 right now. Fewer amount of expected run
scored. More likely to come from quote
UN quote that better team, Minnesota.
(11:44):
Hopefully the bats of Minnesota can at least get a couple runs
off of skeins, or maybe Jack up his pitch count and get to the
bullpen early. Minnesota is hitting 239 on the
year, 107 home runs, 387 run scored.
Pittsburgh's hitting 23064 homers, 319 run scored.
And you also look home Rd. Minnesota is 3 games below 500
(12:06):
overall, but at home they're 26 and 19.
So if that home cooking continues and again, as great as
Skeens is, I want to feed the Pirates on the road.
On the road, Pittsburgh is 12 and 35.
That is the third worst record in baseball.
So Long story short, public split but lines going to
Minnesota. Great bet split out in Vegas on
(12:26):
the Twins. Good system matches correlative
betting home Rd. I'm taking a shot on Minnesota
tonight, guys. Let's go Twinkies.
I got a -, 134 again. Shop around some books as high
as -140 - 145 last night of the night.
Let's go out to the West Coast. 10 O 5:00 PM Eastern Time, first
pitch the Toronto Blue Jays visiting the Athletics and I
(12:50):
can't wait till the Athletics move to Vegas because it seems
weird like Toronto versus the Athletics instead of like
Oakland Athletics or you know, Vegas Athletics and also the
abbreviation Ath. I always remember the oak
anyway, so total side note. That's when you stare at a live
odds page too long and you just you're like, that doesn't look
right. But anyway, setting the stage
for this one. The Blue Jays come in 54 and 39.
(13:13):
They've really been hot over thelast month.
Just took two or three against the White Sox.
Couldn't complete the sweep, though.
They lost the series finale 2 toone as a -145 Rd. favorite.
Meanwhile, the A's 39 and 56 didjust take two or three against
the Braves. They won five to four yesterday
and extras as a + 160 home dog pitching match up here for
(13:35):
tonight, we got the Jays going with Max Scherzer, O&O record
4.76 ERA. Remember, he was in the injury
list for much of the start of the year and he's making like
his fourth or fifth start and he's kind of gotten better in
each start. So you might know where I'm
leaning here, but he'll be opposed by the A's righty Luis
Severino. I give the A's credit.
They spent some money on Severino, but they haven't
(13:56):
gotten what what gotten their money's worth because he's two
and ten. 5.3 OERA. What are we seeing across the
market? Nothing but steam on the Jays.
I'm going Jays guys. Toronto open this game around a
-. 145 Rd. favorite A's around a+ 125.
Home Dog and sharps have poundedToronto.
They've gotten steamed up -145 now up to -165 -, 170 Some
(14:21):
shops. I'm even seeing right now on my
Odds Logic live odds page. Again, Odds logic.com/josh 123
for a 7 day free trial and 50% off your first month.
But I am seeing Toronto get steamed even further.
Some shops going to -175 S big money, big movement on Toronto.
Now the bet splits look pretty good.
(14:42):
Pro and Joe in favor of the Jays.
They're getting 85% of bets, 90%of money at DraftKings and at
circa 85% of bets, 99% of the money.
So Publix probably just saying, hey, Toronto's good, Oakland or
there I did it again. The Athletics are bad.
Whereas wise guys said, hey, we like the value of that number.
Maybe when it opened -145 ish, they said, hey, we got it -170
(15:05):
so let's hit that 'cause that steam in favor of Toronto.
Now I got a bunch of systems litup on the Jays Rd. favorites off
a loss, playing an opponent off a win, kind of a buy low sell
high. The Jays fit that here.
That system is 121 and 8160 percent, 3% ROI.
Toronto also has a rest first tired advantage.
(15:25):
It's really important when you're betting baseball, not
just to assume everyone played yesterday.
Toronto actually was off yesterday, whereas the Athletics
played and went X rings against the Braves.
So in the spot when you are a rested favorite coming off a day
off and you're also getting at least $0.05 of movement in your
favor. So the steam is going with the
rested favorite. That system is 71 and 31 this
(15:49):
year, 71% with a 9% ROI. So it also match here with
Toronto. In addition, you look at the
Jays in the spot, they're 26 and1563% win rate, 7% ROI as a
favorite. They're actually the 4th best
chalk team in baseball. And when they're a favorite and
playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous year,
(16:12):
they've beaten up on those quoteUN quote bad teams.
They're 20 and 1067 percent, 11%ROI.
I do want to fade Severino. So hopefully we get a good start
out of Scherzer rounding back into form.
But Severino, he's giving up five earned runs or more and
five of his last seven starts and get this, I hope this
continues. He's O and eight with a 7 point
(16:32):
O 4 ERA at home this year. And oh, by the way, Jays are
four and O against the A's this season.
A little cherry on top of this Blue Jays sundae ice cream cone.
I popped open the juice reel appand noticed a 19% sharp mush
edge lighting up on Toronto. So big steam in their favor.
Pro and Joe bet splits system matches rest first tired Juice
(16:55):
reel sharp mush edge. I got the Jays -160 earlier
today. Shop around some books as high
as -175 S Orioles, Twins, Toronto Blue Jays.
Can we find a way to get two outof three?
He got a winning day finish up our week strong.
That is the goal. So that about does it for
(17:15):
episode 317 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
where we wrap things up and I start first by saying thank you.
Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
busy lives and the dog days of summer.
I know you got a lot going on, but I see the numbers, I see the
downloads, I see the, you know, the the stats and we're
(17:36):
continuing to grow, which is great.
But thank you for jumping in andpulling up a chair to the
virtual bar and sweating some sharp MLB breakdowns with me all
summer long. I really appreciate it.
If you do enjoy the pod and you want to help me to grow the pod
and let me know you enjoy the insights, could you please give
it a five star review on Spotifyor iTunes?
(17:57):
If you also want to leave a nicecomment under the review section
or click the follow button or recommend the pod to a friend,
that would also be much appreciated.
Next, if you enjoy the style of betting breakdown, data-driven,
sharp contrarian betting. Are we going to win every bet we
make? Nope, it's unrealistic.
Betting is hard. We just got to keep grinding.
But this method, there is a method to the madness and maybe
(18:19):
you're starting to hopefully seesome of the fruits of that that
that that labor. I should say, looking at, hey,
how can we make smart bets with our head and not our heart by
monitoring the market, figuring out where the smart money is
going and taking advantage of ofgood bet splits and system
matches. If this style of betting has
caught your eye, has appealed toyou, you want to learn more
(18:41):
about data-driven betting, or you want to just support the
pod, Or you maybe have a friend or colleague or family member
who bets on sports, loses a lot,wants to get sharper, or maybe
someone who wants to break into betting and doesn't even know
how betting works. Well, I'd love for you guys to
go to Amazon.com and type in theEverything Guide to Sports
Betting. Pick up a copy for you or that
(19:02):
person in your life who could use a leg up.
It's got everything I've learnedin the industry really explains
how lines are set, how lines move, how to go contrarian, how
to identify sharp action, how toplace a bet in person or online,
how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
management plan, all included inthe everything guide to sports
betting. While you're at it, a month from
(19:24):
tomorrow my new book comes out, the NFL sharp betting playbook.
And if you wanted to pre-order acopy from Amazon.com, you would
absolutely make my day and make me and my publisher very happy.
Again, it's called the NFL sharpbetting playbook.
With that being said, bring the everything guide and sharpening
playbook to the sports book. I'll sign them for you and I'll
(19:45):
buy you a beer or ginger ale or truly we'll sweat some games
together. How about that next?
Have you downloaded Rhythm and juice real yet?
Well, if you haven't, you got togo do that.
You got to get ready for NFL andtake advantage of these great
insights that were provided by Rhythm with their AI backed
models and predictions for game bets and player props.
They got the new power trends which are crushing it, WNBA and
(20:07):
MLB. Models and predictions and then
also you got to go download Juice Reel.
You heard me say it earlier, butif you enjoy the pod and this
pod is free, it cost you nothingand you want to support the pod,
drop in a $5.00 bill by signing up to get the all systems go
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And not only do you get the plays there, but you're going to
(20:29):
get them as soon as I bet them myself, as soon as I put that
bet in on my app, whatever book it is, it's going to go right to
the Juice Rail app. And you can tail fade, do
whatever you like. But for example, you know some
of these baseball games I put inearlier and we're beating the
closing line. If you had that $4.99 a week
best bet pick package from JuiceRail, you'd get those plays a
(20:49):
little bit earlier, but you're also going to get the Robo
Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush indicators, the
arbitrage plays shop for the best line futures, as well as
syncing up your books and getting a running report card of
your action. It's all available from the
Juice Rail app. So download Rhythm and download
Juice Reel. Give him a five star review in
the App Store next. Do you have a live odds page?
(21:12):
Also, are you betting NBA SummerLeague?
I got into an interesting conversation last night with
Patrick and Dustin on Visa Live tonight on SiriusXM.
And I know there's a lot of people like how do you bet
summer league? You're insane.
You know, it's meaningless. What are you going to do?
But I will say, you know, peopleI do know who are sharp.
Do you like to bet it? And you can get odds, odds and
(21:34):
lines and line movement and all that kind of stuff for Summer
League, as well as WNBA and all the other sports on Juice Real.
So you got to know what the lineopened at, how it moved.
Shop for the best line, pull up the line history, identify
Steam. You may know not know anything
about who's playing in the summer League games, but if you
know a team is -1 and the whole board gets lit up in red and is
(21:55):
moving to -1 and half -2 you know that hey, that might be a
smart bet with big Steam coming in.
But regardless, guys, for all sports all year long, you got to
give odds logic a shot. Just go to oddslogic.com/josh
123 for seven day free trial and50% off your first month of
service. And then lastly, we do have the
(22:18):
ASG Pod merch store, which is available if you want to get a
Feed the Public's hoodie or a you know, reverse line move
contrarian bet T-shirt or whatever.
It's available to you from the all systems go new merch store,
which you can find as a pin tweet on the ASG podcast Twitter
page. And I'm going to I've started to
(22:40):
put it as a link inside the bodyof the podcast description on
Spotify and iTunes. So go get some some ASG merch.
But that about does it for this week, guys, wrapping up episode
317 of the ASG pod. As always, I'm leaving with two
final thoughts. One, whether I see you at the
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
(23:01):
Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston, or Plain Ridge Park
Casino, or MGM Springfield out in Western Mass, or the Nash in
my neck of the woods just over the border in New Hampshire.
Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
down, where Billy Walters sends his number runners with lowest
juice possible is found at the South Point.
(23:22):
Or sweating sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
swimming pool. When you cash a big ticket at
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
Show me a nice Red Sox come frombehind Winter Cardinals ticket.
Guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
you. We'll post about the book and
sweat some more baseball games tonight, but as always, guys two
(23:42):
and one, one and two, three and OO and three off a winning night
or on a winning streak or off a losing night and on a losing
streak, grinding somewhere in the middle.
We just got to stick with it andcontinue to to grind the model,
which at this point it may have an inkling about what that model
is. That model is finding games that
fit our criteria against the public, with the house, with the
(24:04):
pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports betters.
So hope you have a great Friday.Everybody have an even better
weekend. Remember, you can get the all
systems go best bet picks from the juice reel app over the
weekend. If you want to sweat some games
with me, and you can always follow me on Twitter at Josh
under score insights and get those V sin sharp report write
(24:26):
UPS each day. But again, have a great Friday.
Have an even better weekend. I will see you guys back on
Monday for episode 318 of the all systems go sports betting
podcast powered by rhythm. Good luck everybody and again,
have a great weekend.
Hello, and welcome to episode 317 of the All Systems Go Sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Friday. Our work week is coming to an
end. We got another big weekend upon
(00:40):
us here, guys, believe it or not, the month of July rolling
on here pretty quick. Almost halfway through.
Before you know it, it'll be August, then we'll have the Hall
of Fame Game, we'll have collegefootball, NFL.
But I don't want to get too out ahead of ourselves here, guys,
because even though it's the dogdays of summer and a lot of
betters might take off the summer, they don't want to grind
MLB. Too many games, too long of a
season, too many ups and downs. I get that.
(01:03):
No, no, no, not the ASG pod grind grinders with blinders
crew. We're going to continue to bet
and hopefully turn a profit betting baseball from first
pitch opening day all the way tothe final out of the World
Series. So with that being said guys, I
do have another 3 pack of sweatsfor you all three relatively
short money line favorite. So if we can get two out of
(01:23):
three each out of winning day, that'll be a nice way to end our
week and also want to wish everyone a great weekend ahead.
Just a reminder, no podcasts on the weekends but you can still
get the plays by following the ASG podcast.
Official best bet bet a best betpics on the juice reel app.
You can get them for $4.99 a week.
That's right 5 bucks for seven days of plays.
(01:45):
You can either tail fade. Do what you like, but I consider
a tip jar tip your podcast host.This pod is free.
I always make this joke. It's not really a joke, but hey,
you go out to a nice dinner, youhave a good time, server treats
you well, you give him a tip if you go to the bar, bartender
fills your water when you need it, gets you a new drink when
you want it. You give the bartender a tip.
So if you want to tip your podcast host, you can do it in
(02:06):
the form of dropping a $5.00 bill in the All Systems Go
Official Best Bets page on the Juice Reel app.
You can also read my breakdowns and write ups from visen.com on
Saturdays and Sundays. I still write those seven days a
week, so you get that 3 pack of plays tomorrow morning and
Sunday morning. And you can always follow me on
Twitter at Josh Under Score Insights.
(02:26):
Now before we dive in our sweatsand steam off into the weekend
on getaway day, we got to talk about last night because it was
a nice little night for us. 2 and 1 + 0.64 units.
Had a great hit with the Red Soxbecause the Sox were up early.
They blew it and they stormed back.
They're down 3 to 1. I think it was a 7th or 8th
inning and a huge hit by Roman or Marcela Meyer.
(02:47):
And then you also had say Don Rafaela with A2 run single up
the middle and the bullpen of the Red Sox, Chapman held it
down. Nice win there with the Sox
extending their winning streak to seven and making me a bit of
a believer for the over 85 1/2 win total.
For those of you who are sweating, Red Sox over 85 1/2
wins. Also had a nice sit with the
Saint Louis Cardinals. You never know where you're
(03:08):
going to get with Miles Michaelis.
You can get lit up or pitch a gem.
Well, lucky for us, he pitched well last night.
Cardinals won, came through for the team, 8 nothing win, and
then also their eight to one win.
The one loser though, I tell youwhat guys, it was a sharp play
that I'll make 10 times out of 10.
But in the back of my mind, I'm like this guy Jack Kochanowitz,
He could get lit up and he did get lit up.
(03:30):
So Patrick Corbin got the best of us last night, loser there
with the Angels. But 2IN1 eking out a winning
day, getting 2/3 of a unit. We'll take that every single
time, put it back in our pocket,reinvest in our bankroll and
hopefully have another winning day today to finish off the
week. So that being said, huge card
today, 16 games overall doubleheader for Cleveland and
(03:51):
the White Sox. But I did find 3 bets that
caught my eye. So let's waste no further time
and get into the action for tonight.
So first bit on the board for me, let's go to A7 O 5:00 PM
Eastern Time, first pitch, the Miami Marlins visiting the
Baltimore Orioles. Let's talk some line movement.
That's what system matches and I'll give you my play for this
one. So going into it, we got the
(04:11):
Marlins 42 and 50. They just split A4 game set
against the Reds. They lost 6 to nothing in
yesterday's series finale as a +140 Rd. dog.
Meanwhile the Orioles 42 and 50 on the air, same exact record,
just took two or three though against the Mets, they had one
game that was rained out and they had lost the first game.
But then they swept the doubleheader.
(04:31):
Yesterday they won three to one as a + 120 home dog.
Then they won again 7:00 to 2:00as a + 105 home dog.
So pitching match up here for tonight.
This Inter league series opener got a couple radies on the bump.
The Marlins are going with the ready Edward Cabrera.
He's three and three with a 3.33ERA.
Orioles, meanwhile, going with Dean Kramer, seven and seven,
(04:53):
4.53 ERA. So I've just seen across the
market for this one, this game open with the Birds listed
around a -, 130 home favorite. Miami around a + 110 home dog.
And basically, we've seen nothing but steam in favor of
the Orioles. Give me the Orioles in this one,
guys. Baltimore has been steamed up
-130 now all the way up to -140 -, 145.
(05:17):
I jumped on the Orioles at -136 at FanDuel, which might still be
available, but it is moving. So definitely try to find the
lowest juice price you can. But aside from the line
movement, 10-15 cents toward Miami, I really like the bet
splits. On or toward Baltimore, I should
say, I really like the bet splits on the Orioles.
If you look at DraftKings, Baltimore's getting 69% of money
(05:40):
line bets but 75% of money line dollars.
And then over at Circa, this onereally caught my eye out in
Vegas again, Circa, you got to get there.
You got to make it a a point at least once in your life to go to
the Disney's. Disney's for adults, I should
say, we're pretty much the best place in the world if you're
betting on sports because you got the big screen and you got
(06:00):
stadium swim and all that fun and games.
But circa whole point why I referenced circa is that they
pride themselves on accept accepting smart money, big money
from respected betters, not turning sharp betters away or
limiting them like a lot of books do, which I think is a
wrong thing to do. You get bad PR and you're kind
of, you know, giving out a chance to get an insight into
(06:22):
where the sharps are betting anduse it to your advantage.
But anyway, Circa, only 43% of money line bets are on the
Orioles, but they're getting 97%of money line dollars.
So that is a huge low bets, higher dollars, sharp money
discrepancy in favor of Baltimore.
I do have a bunch of system matches on the Orioles.
I got 6 lit up right now. Here's some of the best ones.
(06:45):
When both teams are below 500, which is the case here, take the
home favorite off a win that would match with Baltimore.
That system is 50 and 26 this year. 66 percent, 6% ROI.
Home favorites made the playoffsthe previous year and they're
also getting line movement in their favor.
Remember Orioles struggle this year, but they did make the
postseason last year. They're getting the line move
(07:06):
here today. That system is 193 and 9866%
with a 5% ROI. You also look at non division
home favorites off a win with steam $0.05 or more in their
favor. That system is 138 and 7166%
with a 5% ROI. Orioles also have just that
classic interleague favorite value.
So lack of familiarity benefiting, quote UN quote the
(07:29):
better team. And I'm also going to bank
hopefully on Kramer pitching well, he has not been good on
the road 3 and five 5.83 ERA. But at home, knock on wood.
Hope this continues. Four and two 2.37 ERA.
So the O's are hot. Swept the doubleheader
yesterday. They're at home here tonight.
They got a line move in their favor with good bet splits and
(07:49):
good system matches. I'm back in Kramer and the
Birds, not Kramer from Seinfeld,although did you guys see this?
I saw a tweet. Larry David, I always wish he
continued Curb. Curb's done one of my favorite
shows, but he's, I guess, getting ready to debut a new
sketch comedy on HBO. So I cannot wait to see what
Larry David's got cooked up. But not the Kramer from
(08:10):
Seinfeld. Total tangent, Kramer for the
bird. So I'm on Baltimore, guys, shop
around. I got Orioles -136 again, you do
have some books as high as -140 - 145.
But let's go Birds. Next step for you. 8:10 PM
Eastern Time, first pitch, let'sgo out to Minnesota where the
Twins are hosting the PittsburghPirates.
(08:32):
Now, going into this one, we gotthe Pirates 38 and 56.
They just got swept by the Royals.
They lost that series finale 4 to 3 as a + 160 row dog.
On the other hand, the Twinkies 45 and 48 did just take two or
three though at home against theCubs.
Couldn't get the win or couldn'tget the sweep.
I should say. They lost 8 to 1 yesterday as a
-1 O 5 home dog. So pitching match up here for
(08:55):
tonight looks pretty good. We got Paul Skeens on the bump
for the Pirates. Poor guy can't get a win.
I hope he doesn't get a win tonight intent, but he's 4:00
and 7:00. Not a great one loss record, but
he's got a 1.94 ERA. He's been great.
Twins, meanwhile, going to readyJoe Ryan 8 and four, 2.76 ERA.
And there's rumors I'm a Sox fanof maybe Jaron Duran and a
(09:17):
prospect traded to the Twins forJoe Ryan.
So I would take that as a Red Sox fan.
But anyway, we open this game. Minnesota around a -. 120 home
favorite. Pittsburgh around a + 100 Rd.
dog. And the public doesn't know what
to do here because they love back in Paul schemes.
But then again, Pittsburgh is a bad team yet they're getting
plus money. Minnesota good pitcher on the
(09:39):
bump, but they're laying a minusnumber.
Public really doesn't know what to do here.
So we have a 5050 ticket count at DraftKings and what we always
talk about, we try to compare the splits to the line movement
and then kind of discern kind ofwhat that line movement and
split relationship or ratio is telling us.
Well, 5050 tickets are right down the middle.
There's no clear contrarian side.
(10:00):
There's no clear public side. Theoretically, if the tickets
are down the middle, you would expect the line not really to
move. So in a vacuum, you know,
balanced action, no need for theodds makers to adjust the number
up or down. However, there are situations
where even though it's 5050 tickets, you do see a line move
in One Direction. And I love going with the team
getting the 5050 line move because that tells me even
(10:21):
though the public doesn't know which side to take, wise guys
have moved the number and causedthat number to move in favor of
one team or the other. And it looks like that movement
is toward Minnesota because the Twins, even though they're only
getting half the tickets, have jumped up -120 up to -140 some
shops even -145 I jumped on Minnesota at -134 at FanDuel.
(10:43):
Aside from the 5050 line move out at Circa, 67% of money line
bets, 96% of money line dollars are on Minnesota.
So even though the public DraftKings, you know, across the
country, all the drunk guys at the bar, the average Joe's, they
don't know what to do. But out at Circa, big money is
going with Minnesota. So I want to back Minnesota.
(11:04):
A couple good system matches on the Twins as well.
Both teams missed the playoffs the previous year.
Take the home interleague favorite, that system is 62 and
33 this season, 65 percent, 7% ROI.
Both teams are coming off a loss.
Take the team getting steamed $0.10 or more.
Once again matching on Minnesota, that system is 36 and
(11:24):
2163% with a 10% ROI. Minnesota also some correlative
betting value in terms of a favorite.
Low total because it's a very low total.
It was 7 some books, most books even.
Down to 6 1/2 right now. Fewer amount of expected run
scored. More likely to come from quote
UN quote that better team, Minnesota.
(11:44):
Hopefully the bats of Minnesota can at least get a couple runs
off of skeins, or maybe Jack up his pitch count and get to the
bullpen early. Minnesota is hitting 239 on the
year, 107 home runs, 387 run scored.
Pittsburgh's hitting 23064 homers, 319 run scored.
And you also look home Rd. Minnesota is 3 games below 500
(12:06):
overall, but at home they're 26 and 19.
So if that home cooking continues and again, as great as
Skeens is, I want to feed the Pirates on the road.
On the road, Pittsburgh is 12 and 35.
That is the third worst record in baseball.
So Long story short, public split but lines going to
Minnesota. Great bet split out in Vegas on
(12:26):
the Twins. Good system matches correlative
betting home Rd. I'm taking a shot on Minnesota
tonight, guys. Let's go Twinkies.
I got a -, 134 again. Shop around some books as high
as -140 - 145 last night of the night.
Let's go out to the West Coast. 10 O 5:00 PM Eastern Time, first
pitch the Toronto Blue Jays visiting the Athletics and I
(12:50):
can't wait till the Athletics move to Vegas because it seems
weird like Toronto versus the Athletics instead of like
Oakland Athletics or you know, Vegas Athletics and also the
abbreviation Ath. I always remember the oak
anyway, so total side note. That's when you stare at a live
odds page too long and you just you're like, that doesn't look
right. But anyway, setting the stage
for this one. The Blue Jays come in 54 and 39.
(13:13):
They've really been hot over thelast month.
Just took two or three against the White Sox.
Couldn't complete the sweep, though.
They lost the series finale 2 toone as a -145 Rd. favorite.
Meanwhile, the A's 39 and 56 didjust take two or three against
the Braves. They won five to four yesterday
and extras as a + 160 home dog pitching match up here for
(13:35):
tonight, we got the Jays going with Max Scherzer, O&O record
4.76 ERA. Remember, he was in the injury
list for much of the start of the year and he's making like
his fourth or fifth start and he's kind of gotten better in
each start. So you might know where I'm
leaning here, but he'll be opposed by the A's righty Luis
Severino. I give the A's credit.
They spent some money on Severino, but they haven't
(13:56):
gotten what what gotten their money's worth because he's two
and ten. 5.3 OERA. What are we seeing across the
market? Nothing but steam on the Jays.
I'm going Jays guys. Toronto open this game around a
-. 145 Rd. favorite A's around a+ 125.
Home Dog and sharps have poundedToronto.
They've gotten steamed up -145 now up to -165 -, 170 Some
(14:21):
shops. I'm even seeing right now on my
Odds Logic live odds page. Again, Odds logic.com/josh 123
for a 7 day free trial and 50% off your first month.
But I am seeing Toronto get steamed even further.
Some shops going to -175 S big money, big movement on Toronto.
Now the bet splits look pretty good.
(14:42):
Pro and Joe in favor of the Jays.
They're getting 85% of bets, 90%of money at DraftKings and at
circa 85% of bets, 99% of the money.
So Publix probably just saying, hey, Toronto's good, Oakland or
there I did it again. The Athletics are bad.
Whereas wise guys said, hey, we like the value of that number.
Maybe when it opened -145 ish, they said, hey, we got it -170
(15:05):
so let's hit that 'cause that steam in favor of Toronto.
Now I got a bunch of systems litup on the Jays Rd. favorites off
a loss, playing an opponent off a win, kind of a buy low sell
high. The Jays fit that here.
That system is 121 and 8160 percent, 3% ROI.
Toronto also has a rest first tired advantage.
(15:25):
It's really important when you're betting baseball, not
just to assume everyone played yesterday.
Toronto actually was off yesterday, whereas the Athletics
played and went X rings against the Braves.
So in the spot when you are a rested favorite coming off a day
off and you're also getting at least $0.05 of movement in your
favor. So the steam is going with the
rested favorite. That system is 71 and 31 this
(15:49):
year, 71% with a 9% ROI. So it also match here with
Toronto. In addition, you look at the
Jays in the spot, they're 26 and1563% win rate, 7% ROI as a
favorite. They're actually the 4th best
chalk team in baseball. And when they're a favorite and
playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous year,
(16:12):
they've beaten up on those quoteUN quote bad teams.
They're 20 and 1067 percent, 11%ROI.
I do want to fade Severino. So hopefully we get a good start
out of Scherzer rounding back into form.
But Severino, he's giving up five earned runs or more and
five of his last seven starts and get this, I hope this
continues. He's O and eight with a 7 point
(16:32):
O 4 ERA at home this year. And oh, by the way, Jays are
four and O against the A's this season.
A little cherry on top of this Blue Jays sundae ice cream cone.
I popped open the juice reel appand noticed a 19% sharp mush
edge lighting up on Toronto. So big steam in their favor.
Pro and Joe bet splits system matches rest first tired Juice
(16:55):
reel sharp mush edge. I got the Jays -160 earlier
today. Shop around some books as high
as -175 S Orioles, Twins, Toronto Blue Jays.
Can we find a way to get two outof three?
He got a winning day finish up our week strong.
That is the goal. So that about does it for
(17:15):
episode 317 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
where we wrap things up and I start first by saying thank you.
Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
busy lives and the dog days of summer.
I know you got a lot going on, but I see the numbers, I see the
downloads, I see the, you know, the the stats and we're
(17:36):
continuing to grow, which is great.
But thank you for jumping in andpulling up a chair to the
virtual bar and sweating some sharp MLB breakdowns with me all
summer long. I really appreciate it.
If you do enjoy the pod and you want to help me to grow the pod
and let me know you enjoy the insights, could you please give
it a five star review on Spotifyor iTunes?
(17:57):
If you also want to leave a nicecomment under the review section
or click the follow button or recommend the pod to a friend,
that would also be much appreciated.
Next, if you enjoy the style of betting breakdown, data-driven,
sharp contrarian betting. Are we going to win every bet we
make? Nope, it's unrealistic.
Betting is hard. We just got to keep grinding.
But this method, there is a method to the madness and maybe
(18:19):
you're starting to hopefully seesome of the fruits of that that
that that labor. I should say, looking at, hey,
how can we make smart bets with our head and not our heart by
monitoring the market, figuring out where the smart money is
going and taking advantage of ofgood bet splits and system
matches. If this style of betting has
caught your eye, has appealed toyou, you want to learn more
(18:41):
about data-driven betting, or you want to just support the
pod, Or you maybe have a friend or colleague or family member
who bets on sports, loses a lot,wants to get sharper, or maybe
someone who wants to break into betting and doesn't even know
how betting works. Well, I'd love for you guys to
go to Amazon.com and type in theEverything Guide to Sports
Betting. Pick up a copy for you or that
(19:02):
person in your life who could use a leg up.
It's got everything I've learnedin the industry really explains
how lines are set, how lines move, how to go contrarian, how
to identify sharp action, how toplace a bet in person or online,
how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
management plan, all included inthe everything guide to sports
betting. While you're at it, a month from
(19:24):
tomorrow my new book comes out, the NFL sharp betting playbook.
And if you wanted to pre-order acopy from Amazon.com, you would
absolutely make my day and make me and my publisher very happy.
Again, it's called the NFL sharpbetting playbook.
With that being said, bring the everything guide and sharpening
playbook to the sports book. I'll sign them for you and I'll
(19:45):
buy you a beer or ginger ale or truly we'll sweat some games
together. How about that next?
Have you downloaded Rhythm and juice real yet?
Well, if you haven't, you got togo do that.
You got to get ready for NFL andtake advantage of these great
insights that were provided by Rhythm with their AI backed
models and predictions for game bets and player props.
They got the new power trends which are crushing it, WNBA and
(20:07):
MLB. Models and predictions and then
also you got to go download Juice Reel.
You heard me say it earlier, butif you enjoy the pod and this
pod is free, it cost you nothingand you want to support the pod,
drop in a $5.00 bill by signing up to get the all systems go
best bet picks exclusively and only on Juice Reel.
And not only do you get the plays there, but you're going to
(20:29):
get them as soon as I bet them myself, as soon as I put that
bet in on my app, whatever book it is, it's going to go right to
the Juice Rail app. And you can tail fade, do
whatever you like. But for example, you know some
of these baseball games I put inearlier and we're beating the
closing line. If you had that $4.99 a week
best bet pick package from JuiceRail, you'd get those plays a
(20:49):
little bit earlier, but you're also going to get the Robo
Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush indicators, the
arbitrage plays shop for the best line futures, as well as
syncing up your books and getting a running report card of
your action. It's all available from the
Juice Rail app. So download Rhythm and download
Juice Reel. Give him a five star review in
the App Store next. Do you have a live odds page?
(21:12):
Also, are you betting NBA SummerLeague?
I got into an interesting conversation last night with
Patrick and Dustin on Visa Live tonight on SiriusXM.
And I know there's a lot of people like how do you bet
summer league? You're insane.
You know, it's meaningless. What are you going to do?
But I will say, you know, peopleI do know who are sharp.
Do you like to bet it? And you can get odds, odds and
(21:34):
lines and line movement and all that kind of stuff for Summer
League, as well as WNBA and all the other sports on Juice Real.
So you got to know what the lineopened at, how it moved.
Shop for the best line, pull up the line history, identify
Steam. You may know not know anything
about who's playing in the summer League games, but if you
know a team is -1 and the whole board gets lit up in red and is
(21:55):
moving to -1 and half -2 you know that hey, that might be a
smart bet with big Steam coming in.
But regardless, guys, for all sports all year long, you got to
give odds logic a shot. Just go to oddslogic.com/josh
123 for seven day free trial and50% off your first month of
service. And then lastly, we do have the
(22:18):
ASG Pod merch store, which is available if you want to get a
Feed the Public's hoodie or a you know, reverse line move
contrarian bet T-shirt or whatever.
It's available to you from the all systems go new merch store,
which you can find as a pin tweet on the ASG podcast Twitter
page. And I'm going to I've started to
(22:40):
put it as a link inside the bodyof the podcast description on
Spotify and iTunes. So go get some some ASG merch.
But that about does it for this week, guys, wrapping up episode
317 of the ASG pod. As always, I'm leaving with two
final thoughts. One, whether I see you at the
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
(23:01):
Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston, or Plain Ridge Park
Casino, or MGM Springfield out in Western Mass, or the Nash in
my neck of the woods just over the border in New Hampshire.
Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
down, where Billy Walters sends his number runners with lowest
juice possible is found at the South Point.
(23:22):
Or sweating sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
swimming pool. When you cash a big ticket at
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
Show me a nice Red Sox come frombehind Winter Cardinals ticket.
Guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
you. We'll post about the book and
sweat some more baseball games tonight, but as always, guys two
(23:42):
and one, one and two, three and OO and three off a winning night
or on a winning streak or off a losing night and on a losing
streak, grinding somewhere in the middle.
We just got to stick with it andcontinue to to grind the model,
which at this point it may have an inkling about what that model
is. That model is finding games that
fit our criteria against the public, with the house, with the
(24:04):
pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports betters.
So hope you have a great Friday.Everybody have an even better
weekend. Remember, you can get the all
systems go best bet picks from the juice reel app over the
weekend. If you want to sweat some games
with me, and you can always follow me on Twitter at Josh
under score insights and get those V sin sharp report write
(24:26):
UPS each day. But again, have a great Friday.
Have an even better weekend. I will see you guys back on
Monday for episode 318 of the all systems go sports betting
podcast powered by rhythm. Good luck everybody and again,
have a great weekend.
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