July 14, 2025 • 25 mins
In Episode 318, Josh dishes out a pair of plays for Monday, including a Home Run Derby prop and WNBA sweat.
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Josh's new book "The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook" comes out on August 12, 2025
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:19):
Hello, and welcome to episode 318 of the All Systems Go sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Monday. We are getting right back into
(00:40):
the swing of things. Hope everyone had a fantastic
weekend. I had a great time.
It was busy, but went to to visit the parents out in Western
Mass as well as hang out with some some friends who had a baby
shower and a cookout. So, you know, summer's fully in
swing when every weekend you gotsomething going on.
But either way, guys, it is kindof a weird week.
(01:01):
It is the All Star break week and Major League Baseball, this
is typically the slowest and most dead is a dead or deadest,
the most dead or deadest time ofthe year when it comes to sports
betting. And really kind of I look at the
All Star break as kind of a way to catch your breath.
Obviously we've been grinding baseball every single day since
opening day and having some pretty good success overall,
(01:23):
especially over the last, I would say week, month or so.
I think over the past month up around 9 units betting Major
League Baseball, which is good to see.
I kind of didn't want the the break to come because we were on
a on a pretty good groove there with MLB.
But anyway, the All Star break is a time to catch your breath.
It's a time to kind of just re energize your batteries and just
kind of get ready for the last calm before the storm before the
(01:45):
NFL season takes place. So I actually remember when I
used to work at Sports Insights,it was my first job in the
industry and I was where I basically learned sports betting
and learn the rules of the road and kind of acquired this, this
data-driven philosophy. But we would always get the All
Star break off. So you would always get like a
three or four day break. There's really not much going
(02:07):
on. So I was kind of think about
this as really the slowest groupof days, slowest week here in
the year. But with that being said, hey,
you hear my voice, we're doing apodcast.
So that means we got to bet on something, right?
Well, I actually did find 2 betsfor you guys tonight.
So we do have the Home Run Derbyand I did find a specific bet.
(02:27):
I'm not gonna bet on who's gonnawin over under home runs cuz I
feel like that's incredibly hardto cash at.
But I did find a prop bet that caught my eye.
In terms of having to do with the weather tonight in Atlanta.
Wind is blowing out. It's a hot, humid night as well
as kind of a situation, almost like the hot dog eating contest,
(02:48):
where we can kind of look at allthe different books and their
numbers and kind of play them off each other and find a really
good number here. So I have a Home Run Derby prop
for you tonight. I don't know if Chris Berman
still does it, but back, back, back, back, back, back, back,
back, gone, home run. And I also have AWNBA bet.
That's right, as I was scratching and clawed for
something to write about as I'm a sports betting analyst for
(03:11):
recent.com and said, oh, there'stwo WNBA games tonight and one
pretty much caught my eye and fit everything we look for.
So I have a WMWNBA play, I have a Home Run Derby prop bet, and
of course you know, 3 bets, try to go 2 and one.
Well, if we want a winning nighttonight, we got to go 2 and O,
so at least go one and one, but we'll try to go 2 and O and
(03:32):
maybe stack a a little bit of a profit here.
And the are really the not arguably, but the slowest week
of the year. So that's what we talking about
today, guys. And of course, we'll be finding
hopefully new creative ways to bet this week.
I'm also looking at the All Stargame for tomorrow.
It's basically a pick em type game.
The total is 7 juiced up a little bit to the over.
(03:54):
We'll see if we can find something to bet on for tomorrow
as well. But maybe this is the week where
we kind of really lean into WNBAbecause there's two games
tonight, two games tomorrow, andthen if you look on Wednesday,
there are five games. So if we can get some system
matches, let's not force it. But if it's jumping out to us,
we're going to play it. So first.
But on the board for me, let's talk about the Home Run Derby
(04:17):
now. Home Run Derby, to me, it's it's
kind of something that I don't know, some people are like, oh,
the Derby's not quite what it used to be.
I remember the Josh Hamilton year where he went nuts, and
obviously I remember I'm really dating myself.
But the greatest All Star game of all time, 1999 when Pedro
struck out, everyone who was on roids and Ted Williams came out
in the golf cart. There's also an incredible Home
(04:39):
Run Derby there over the Monsterbefore the Monster seats.
But I'll kind of tell you this, guys, I really don't have an
edge on who's going to win this thing.
Typically it's someone you don'treally expect.
The chalk doesn't always win. Like right now.
Cal Raleigh, the big dumper, he's the favorite plus 300.
O'Neill Cruz, second favorite, plus 330.
James Wood was part of that big deal for Juan Soto, having a
(05:03):
great year for the Nats, plus 425.
Matt Olson, hometown guy for theBraves, plus 800.
Brent Rooker for the A's, plus 850.
Byron Buxton of the Twins, plus 950.
Jazz Chisholm plus 1100. Junior Caminero plus 1200.
So I'm not going to bet on who'sgoing to win again.
To me, I just don't find enough of an edge and I used to always
(05:24):
bet every year who's going to win?
I would never win. I said, oh, I'm not going to
keep wasting my money just betting on the the winner.
You can also take finalists, youcan do totals.
There's a lot of opportunities there.
I'm just going to say I wish youthe best.
To me, these are very difficult to win, but I did find a bit of
an edge. And I think this is important
because when you're betting on sports, you know, you don't want
(05:45):
to bet something just because it's on TV.
You don't want to bet something just because you're bored and
you got nothing else to do. You want to bet on something
because you feel like you've created a specific list of
reasons that would again convince a jury to convict or
quit. You know, you got to have a
clear set of data-driven reasonsto bet something.
Or ideally, you find an edge, which is technically an
(06:07):
advantage over the sports book. So I landed on one particular
prop Bet, the distance of the longest home run hit by any
player today, or tonight I should say.
So this is notable to me for a few reasons #1 doesn't matter
who hits, it can be anybody #2 If we look at the number right
(06:27):
now at DraftKings, the longest home run of any player right now
is 479 1/2 feet. So 479.5.
Now first thing I notice is thatit's just over 479 1/2 / -, 120.
The under is plus 100. So this reminds me a little bit
of the Hot dog contest where I remember it was Joey Chestnut 71
(06:50):
1/2 under -120. So basically the first clue of
the odds makers on the hot dog contest was the under getting
juiced under. This first clue to me from
DraftKings is the over getting juiced over.
Then as a point of reference, I started looking at every other
book. So I found that DraftKings is
7/4/79 and 1/2 / - 120. I found Caesar's is 479 1/2 / -,
(07:14):
115. But here's where it gets
interesting. FanDuel is 480 1/2 / -, 112 bet.
MGM is 480 1/2 -, 110. ESPN bet is 481 1/2.
Now the under is -130 so you canplus one in the over.
But that is another clue to me. So DraftKings opens getting
(07:38):
juice to the over like the hot dog contest.
Open juice to the under. Then every other book is higher
than that, pretty much. Like again, Caesar's and
DraftKings are both 479 1/2, butFanDuel and Betam Gem are 480
1/2. ESPN bet is 481 1/2.
Now, you may not, that may not mean much to you.
Like, hey, what what's a, what'sa, what's, you know, a foot
(07:59):
basically, or a foot and a half.Again, it's 12 inches, 20.
You know, I'm not saying technically what is it, but you
know, if a guy's going to crush a Homer, it might sail over that
number and it may not even matter.
But that's an indication to me that if you are going to play
this over, which that's my back guys over 479 1/2 feet and I
have another angle here in a second that's telling me that
(08:20):
I'm getting a good number. The rest of the market is
actually more bullish on the distance being even longer.
My other angle here is the weather because if you don't
follow me, you should follow at Kevin Roth WX.
He is the basically sports betting weather guy for for roto
grinders and if you just search roto grinders, if you Google
(08:42):
roto grinders weather, there's agreat tab.
I bookmark it. It's great for all sports
included, but he does a really good job of just staying on
track of the weather, looking atthe radar, giving you a good
breakdown. It's obviously huge for
football. We're, you know, going to get
back to windy unders and all that pretty soon.
But he did have a write up for the Home Run Derby here for
tonight and let me just read to you the write up now.
(09:04):
The first thing you got to know is that he basically color codes
them green, yellow and red basedon like, you know, great,
terrible or great, you know, average or terrible.
Well, tonight the weather color color is green.
So green is green is go. What does McConaughey say?
Green green lights to see a green light, you got to take a
(09:25):
man, but green lights good to go.
And here's his write up quote. Home Run Derby, a steamy night
in Atlanta with high humidity. Winds are also blowing out to
center lightly five mile per hour sustained up to 10 mile per
hour gusts. It's not the best weather I've
ever seen, but hot, humid and winds gently blowing out to
(09:45):
center is a boost to the bats and we should see some good
carry tonight for the Derby. Side note that there is a low
chance for a stray shower or storm.
But what's the most important thing that he just talked about
in his weather forecast for tonight?
Most important thing to me is wind is blowing out to center.
It's hot, it's humid. And again, the kicker here the,
(10:08):
the coup de I did notice, you know, longest
(10:33):
home run, I believe it's Byron Buxton is the favorite O'Neill
Cruz is a guy who crushes them. But if you add those two things
together, guys like it was notable to me enough just from
the betting market again, the over 479 F being juiced up every
book even higher than that. But when I saw that weather
forecast again, it's not 20° blowing out to dead center, but
(10:54):
5 to 10 hot, humid. This is good hitting conditions
here for tonight. So you add it all up here, guys,
I'm shopping around. I already did shop around.
I got over 479 1/2 feet and I got it at Caesar's over -115
save a little juice because DraftKings is 479 F over -120
(11:14):
And again, FanDuel bet MGM 480 1/2, ESPN bet 481 1/2.
So I feel like we're getting thebest number and we are kind of
playing the books off each other.
We are uncovering kind of deductive reasoning comparing
the books. And this also reminds me two of
the of the home runner or the what was it hot dog contest.
Because remember all the books were like 71 1/2, but circa was
(11:38):
70 1/2. So like a sharp book was lower
than the rest. Whereas again, that kind of told
you liability under or maybe value under.
Well, here it seems to me valueson the over.
So that's going to be my bet here for tonight in the Derby.
I don't care who it is. We need someone to hit a home
run 480 feet so we can hopefullycash this over 479 F at -115 at
(12:01):
Caesar's. Now I got a WNBA play for you.
And again, we don't talk a lot of WNBAI think we've made 2
plays this year, number one and one.
But the beauty of being a data-driven better is that you
don't have to watch the sports. You don't have to know every
player, you don't have to know insurance and outs of the
coaching and all the intricacies.
(12:22):
As long as you can read the market and understand what the
market is telling you, you have the ability to make a smart bet
that hopefully can cash for you.So I landed on a 10 O clock game
tonight, the Phoenix Mercury visiting the Golden State
Valkyries. Now you might have heard of the
Mercury. They had Britney Griner for a
while. I think she's on a different
team now, but the Golden State Valkyries, they're an expansion
(12:43):
team. They're brand new to the WNBA
and they're actually not that bad.
So let's breakdown this game like we would any other game.
So going into it, we got the Mercury having a good year, 14
and 6. They've won two straight.
They just beat the lynx, Minnesota Lynx 79 to 71.
They went out right as a 7 pointhome dog.
You know the valkyries again expansion team, but they're 10
and 10 this year. They did, however, lose 3 of
(13:06):
their last four. They lost to the aces one O 4 to
one O 2, but they did cover as a5 point Rd. dog.
So where did this line open? Well, the opening number for
this game was not the Phoenix Mercury better record and hotter
as of late. No, it opened Golden State home
team, the expansion team as a 1 1/2 point home favorite right
(13:26):
off the bat. Again, that really speaks
volumes to me why, even though you're factoring in homecourt,
you know why is the team with the worst one one loss record
who's lost three of their last four favored over the team with
a better record who was one two straight.
That's just fishy, fishy, fishy in favor of the fishy side.
That doesn't make sense. It should be the favorite with
the Valkyries. Now, you guys know at this point
(13:49):
we're trying to find some line movement that either kind of
doesn't make sense or does make sense depending on how the way
way you look at it and the line movement is toward the fishy
side. That doesn't make sense because
we've now seen the Golden State Valkyries get bet up -1 1/2 up
to -2 1/2. So the Lions going toward the
Valkyries, even though they're quote UN quote the worst team in
(14:10):
this matchup. Now let's look at the bet splits
at DraftKings. The Valkyries are getting 58% of
spread bets, 65% of spread dollars at Circa Valkyries, 57%
of spread bets, 81% of spread dollars.
So both DraftKings and Circa arelow bets, higher dollars in
favor of the Golden State Valkyries.
(14:30):
Now I know we haven't talked about, you know, basketball in
quite a while since you know, the NCAA tournament ended or
WNBA with the finals. But if you don't know, I like
the money line short favorites because I'm willing to pay a
little more juice and protect myself on the off chance that a
team wins the game but doesn't cover the number.
So when this game opened, valkyries -1 1/2.
(14:52):
The odds makers are telling you this could be a very, very close
game. So I would hate to lay now 2 1/2
the lines move in favor of the Valkyries.
Now the Valkyries win by one or two when I lose my bet.
So I'm playing Valkyries on the money line at -140.
Shop around. I believe that was Caesar's.
Some books are as high as -145 but draftking splits look good
(15:12):
on the money line. Only 50% of money line bets, but
64% of money line dollars in favor of Golden State.
I do have some system matches, believe it or not, in WNBA home
favorites with a line move in their favor.
Golden State would qualify here.Those teams are 41 and 1080
percent, 6% ROI this year. Favorite straight up off a loss
(15:33):
with a line move in their favor are 30 and seven straight up
this year, 81 percent, 13% ROI. That is pretty damn good.
And since the start of last year, we have favorite straight
up off a loss of the line move, 75 and 2178% with a 12% ROI.
(15:53):
So two really good systems lighting up on Golden State.
Golden State is 7 and three at home this year.
And maybe there's a bit of a revenge angle because the
Valkyries played the Mercury once prior this year.
They lost 86 to 77 on the road. So maybe that's something that
they, you know, are looking out for some revenge here for
tonight. But again, maybe you don't bet
(16:14):
WNBA. Maybe you love it, maybe you
don't. Maybe you're mad I don't talk
more WNBA. But my angle is, hey, baseball's
been pretty good to us. So why, you know, risk units
other where other places when baseball's been a money maker.
But hey, it's a it's a it's a slow, quiet week.
And you know, hey, this line's screaming at me with the
Valkyries with a pretty sharp, sharp line move.
(16:35):
So I'm on the Golden State Valkyries, I got a -140 on the
money line, I believe. Again, that was Caesar's so
longest Homer tonight in the Derby, over 479 1/2.
And Valkyries hopefully to win the damn game -140 on the money
line. So that about does it for
episode 317 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
(16:57):
powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
where we of course wrap things up and start first by saying
thank you. Thank you for taking the time
out of your day, out of your busy lives and the dog days of
summer. I know maybe betting isn't quite
as popular as other times of theyear like when football gets
back, but the fact you guys keepgrinding baseball with me and go
through these dog days together,it really means a lot.
(17:18):
So thank you for tuning in. If you did want to give this pod
a five star review on Spotify oriTunes, I would really
appreciate that if you want to click the follow button that way
you get alerted as soon as the new pod drops each day or
recommend the pod to a friend. I would also very much
appreciate that. Next, if you enjoy the style of
betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp contrarian betting,
(17:39):
betting games based on the numbers, the line movement, the
splits, the system matches, betting games with our head and
not our heart. The style of betting has
appealed to you. You want to learn more about
data-driven betting or you know someone in your life who could
use some data-driven tips. I'd love for you guys to go to
Amazon.com and then type in the NFL.
Sorry, I just I just jumped to the gun type in the everything
(18:01):
Guide to Sports betting, the first book ever wrote.
I'm just so excited about my newbook, which is coming out now in
less than a month. But the Everything guide to
sports betting, it's great for brand new betters, even newish
intermediate betters who are looking for more systems and
strategies and tips. But it's got everything I've
learned in the industry, how lines are set, how and why they
move, how to read line movement,how to locate sharp action, how
(18:21):
to place them in person or online, how to shop for the best
line, how to set up a bankroll management plan, all included in
the Everything Guide to Sports betting.
Now while you're still on Amazon.com getting the
Everything Guide, then type in the NFL Sharp Betting playbook.
Guys, we are officially less than a month away.
August 12th, baby, if you'd liketo pre-order my new book and get
(18:41):
a leg up and get prepared for the NFL season and support the
team, I would love for you guys to pre-order a copy on
Amazon.com and make me happy, make my publisher Triumph Books
very happy. And actually just got my box of
books and I gave them to my mom and dad and my sister over the
weekend. So it was a pretty cool moment
for the family. Pick one up or both and bring
(19:04):
them to the sports book. I'll sign them for you and buy a
beer or ginger ale or truly and we'll sweat some some Derby and
some WNBA together tonight. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
and Juice Reel yet? Well, you better if you haven't
because they're great tools to add to your data-driven sports
betting toolbox. Rhythm fantastic for their AI
backed models and predictions for game bets and player props
(19:25):
for WNBA and MLB. And then of course, Juice Reel.
So many great features with the Juice Reel app.
First off, if you enjoy this pod, it's free.
I'm going to pass the hat if youwant to toss in a $5.00 bill.
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(19:45):
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Good, good, good, good meal out at the restaurant.
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Hey, you do you look to tip themas well.
But yeah, tip your podcast host in the form of signing up for
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(20:07):
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Next, you need a live odds page.And believe me, if you haven't
(20:31):
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(20:52):
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So I'd love for you guys to giveOdds Logic a shot.
There's a 7 day free trial and 50% off your first month of
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(21:14):
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I got to figure out a way to, you know, usually I can, you
know, like just explain these last few things.
(21:34):
The housekeeping at the end of the pod.
I can like literally close my eyes, do it in my sleep.
But I got to find a way to to now mention the new all systems
go merch store because unveiled it last week.
I'm seeing you guys buy some some swag, which is really
awesome because I want to see people all across the country at
different books wearing a fade the public sweatshirt or a
(21:55):
reverse line move or contrarian bet or, you know, don't parlay
sweatshirt, but it's all available in the new all systems
go merch store. You can find the link inside the
body of each podcast. I've been putting it in there.
You can also go to the all systems go Twitter page and
there's a pin tweet getting you right to the the merch store.
(22:18):
So I'd love for you guys to support the pod.
I think they're pretty cool shirts because they'll say the
tag phrase on the front, like reverse line movement or
whatever. Then on the back you got the
logo for the pot, which is pretty cool if you ask me.
But that about does it for today's podcast.
Again, trying to make chicken salad out of chicken.
You know what? Because it's kind of a weird
quiet week, but two bets tonightthat I think we made a pretty
(22:38):
good case for. So if we can get at least one
and get hopefully 2, that would be even better.
But as always, guys leave you a couple things, whether I see you
at the Borgata in Atlantic City,Twin River in Rhode Island, the
Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
Casino or MGM Springfield. Of course, in my neck of the
woods in Western Mass or in the at the Nash where I where I'm
(23:02):
not too far from right now, we're out in the desert where
the true grinders get down or Billy Walter sends his number
runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the South
Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
stadium swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me,
hopefully show me a Derby, longest Homer, longest Dong
ticket and hopefully Valkyrie's ticket and guess what?
(23:25):
First one's on me, next one's onyou, and we'll sweat the Derby
and WNBA here together tonight. So as always, guys, whether
we're coming off a great day, a terrible day, somewhere in
between grinding, hot, cold, we just got to stick to the model,
stick to the blueprint. There's going to be highs,
there's going to be lows, and we're not going to win every
bet. We never will, but we always
strive to win every bet. That's the challenge of sports
(23:47):
betting. But I can tell you one thing, no
such thing as a locker guaranteeand betting.
But I can tell you that if we stick to this model, making bets
with our head and not our heart,making bets that check off the
boxes against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat
bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
If we can do that long term, I'mpretty confident we're going to
be successful sports bettors. So have a great Monday night
(24:09):
everybody. Let's get some some long homers
and go Valkyries. And of course, we'll be right
back at it tomorrow talking probably an All Star game bet,
maybe WNBA and I got some other ideas.
Maybe I'll surprise you tomorrow.
This is always the week where I got to get creative on the pod
because again, look, unfortunately we don't have a
huge slate of MLB, which I already missed right now.
(24:32):
But hey, we'll be right back at it when it comes back on Friday.
But good luck everyone. Enjoy your Monday night and I
will see you tomorrow for episode 319 of the All Systems
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
Good luck everybody and let's have a good night.
Hello, and welcome to episode 318 of the All Systems Go sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Monday. We are getting right back into
(00:40):
the swing of things. Hope everyone had a fantastic
weekend. I had a great time.
It was busy, but went to to visit the parents out in Western
Mass as well as hang out with some some friends who had a baby
shower and a cookout. So, you know, summer's fully in
swing when every weekend you gotsomething going on.
But either way, guys, it is kindof a weird week.
(01:01):
It is the All Star break week and Major League Baseball, this
is typically the slowest and most dead is a dead or deadest,
the most dead or deadest time ofthe year when it comes to sports
betting. And really kind of I look at the
All Star break as kind of a way to catch your breath.
Obviously we've been grinding baseball every single day since
opening day and having some pretty good success overall,
(01:23):
especially over the last, I would say week, month or so.
I think over the past month up around 9 units betting Major
League Baseball, which is good to see.
I kind of didn't want the the break to come because we were on
a on a pretty good groove there with MLB.
But anyway, the All Star break is a time to catch your breath.
It's a time to kind of just re energize your batteries and just
kind of get ready for the last calm before the storm before the
(01:45):
NFL season takes place. So I actually remember when I
used to work at Sports Insights,it was my first job in the
industry and I was where I basically learned sports betting
and learn the rules of the road and kind of acquired this, this
data-driven philosophy. But we would always get the All
Star break off. So you would always get like a
three or four day break. There's really not much going
(02:07):
on. So I was kind of think about
this as really the slowest groupof days, slowest week here in
the year. But with that being said, hey,
you hear my voice, we're doing apodcast.
So that means we got to bet on something, right?
Well, I actually did find 2 betsfor you guys tonight.
So we do have the Home Run Derbyand I did find a specific bet.
(02:27):
I'm not gonna bet on who's gonnawin over under home runs cuz I
feel like that's incredibly hardto cash at.
But I did find a prop bet that caught my eye.
In terms of having to do with the weather tonight in Atlanta.
Wind is blowing out. It's a hot, humid night as well
as kind of a situation, almost like the hot dog eating contest,
(02:48):
where we can kind of look at allthe different books and their
numbers and kind of play them off each other and find a really
good number here. So I have a Home Run Derby prop
for you tonight. I don't know if Chris Berman
still does it, but back, back, back, back, back, back, back,
back, gone, home run. And I also have AWNBA bet.
That's right, as I was scratching and clawed for
something to write about as I'm a sports betting analyst for
(03:11):
recent.com and said, oh, there'stwo WNBA games tonight and one
pretty much caught my eye and fit everything we look for.
So I have a WMWNBA play, I have a Home Run Derby prop bet, and
of course you know, 3 bets, try to go 2 and one.
Well, if we want a winning nighttonight, we got to go 2 and O,
so at least go one and one, but we'll try to go 2 and O and
(03:32):
maybe stack a a little bit of a profit here.
And the are really the not arguably, but the slowest week
of the year. So that's what we talking about
today, guys. And of course, we'll be finding
hopefully new creative ways to bet this week.
I'm also looking at the All Stargame for tomorrow.
It's basically a pick em type game.
The total is 7 juiced up a little bit to the over.
(03:54):
We'll see if we can find something to bet on for tomorrow
as well. But maybe this is the week where
we kind of really lean into WNBAbecause there's two games
tonight, two games tomorrow, andthen if you look on Wednesday,
there are five games. So if we can get some system
matches, let's not force it. But if it's jumping out to us,
we're going to play it. So first.
But on the board for me, let's talk about the Home Run Derby
(04:17):
now. Home Run Derby, to me, it's it's
kind of something that I don't know, some people are like, oh,
the Derby's not quite what it used to be.
I remember the Josh Hamilton year where he went nuts, and
obviously I remember I'm really dating myself.
But the greatest All Star game of all time, 1999 when Pedro
struck out, everyone who was on roids and Ted Williams came out
in the golf cart. There's also an incredible Home
(04:39):
Run Derby there over the Monsterbefore the Monster seats.
But I'll kind of tell you this, guys, I really don't have an
edge on who's going to win this thing.
Typically it's someone you don'treally expect.
The chalk doesn't always win. Like right now.
Cal Raleigh, the big dumper, he's the favorite plus 300.
O'Neill Cruz, second favorite, plus 330.
James Wood was part of that big deal for Juan Soto, having a
(05:03):
great year for the Nats, plus 425.
Matt Olson, hometown guy for theBraves, plus 800.
Brent Rooker for the A's, plus 850.
Byron Buxton of the Twins, plus 950.
Jazz Chisholm plus 1100. Junior Caminero plus 1200.
So I'm not going to bet on who'sgoing to win again.
To me, I just don't find enough of an edge and I used to always
(05:24):
bet every year who's going to win?
I would never win. I said, oh, I'm not going to
keep wasting my money just betting on the the winner.
You can also take finalists, youcan do totals.
There's a lot of opportunities there.
I'm just going to say I wish youthe best.
To me, these are very difficult to win, but I did find a bit of
an edge. And I think this is important
because when you're betting on sports, you know, you don't want
(05:45):
to bet something just because it's on TV.
You don't want to bet something just because you're bored and
you got nothing else to do. You want to bet on something
because you feel like you've created a specific list of
reasons that would again convince a jury to convict or
quit. You know, you got to have a
clear set of data-driven reasonsto bet something.
Or ideally, you find an edge, which is technically an
(06:07):
advantage over the sports book. So I landed on one particular
prop Bet, the distance of the longest home run hit by any
player today, or tonight I should say.
So this is notable to me for a few reasons #1 doesn't matter
who hits, it can be anybody #2 If we look at the number right
(06:27):
now at DraftKings, the longest home run of any player right now
is 479 1/2 feet. So 479.5.
Now first thing I notice is thatit's just over 479 1/2 / -, 120.
The under is plus 100. So this reminds me a little bit
of the Hot dog contest where I remember it was Joey Chestnut 71
(06:50):
1/2 under -120. So basically the first clue of
the odds makers on the hot dog contest was the under getting
juiced under. This first clue to me from
DraftKings is the over getting juiced over.
Then as a point of reference, I started looking at every other
book. So I found that DraftKings is
7/4/79 and 1/2 / - 120. I found Caesar's is 479 1/2 / -,
(07:14):
115. But here's where it gets
interesting. FanDuel is 480 1/2 / -, 112 bet.
MGM is 480 1/2 -, 110. ESPN bet is 481 1/2.
Now the under is -130 so you canplus one in the over.
But that is another clue to me. So DraftKings opens getting
(07:38):
juice to the over like the hot dog contest.
Open juice to the under. Then every other book is higher
than that, pretty much. Like again, Caesar's and
DraftKings are both 479 1/2, butFanDuel and Betam Gem are 480
1/2. ESPN bet is 481 1/2.
Now, you may not, that may not mean much to you.
Like, hey, what what's a, what'sa, what's, you know, a foot
(07:59):
basically, or a foot and a half.Again, it's 12 inches, 20.
You know, I'm not saying technically what is it, but you
know, if a guy's going to crush a Homer, it might sail over that
number and it may not even matter.
But that's an indication to me that if you are going to play
this over, which that's my back guys over 479 1/2 feet and I
have another angle here in a second that's telling me that
(08:20):
I'm getting a good number. The rest of the market is
actually more bullish on the distance being even longer.
My other angle here is the weather because if you don't
follow me, you should follow at Kevin Roth WX.
He is the basically sports betting weather guy for for roto
grinders and if you just search roto grinders, if you Google
(08:42):
roto grinders weather, there's agreat tab.
I bookmark it. It's great for all sports
included, but he does a really good job of just staying on
track of the weather, looking atthe radar, giving you a good
breakdown. It's obviously huge for
football. We're, you know, going to get
back to windy unders and all that pretty soon.
But he did have a write up for the Home Run Derby here for
tonight and let me just read to you the write up now.
(09:04):
The first thing you got to know is that he basically color codes
them green, yellow and red basedon like, you know, great,
terrible or great, you know, average or terrible.
Well, tonight the weather color color is green.
So green is green is go. What does McConaughey say?
Green green lights to see a green light, you got to take a
(09:25):
man, but green lights good to go.
And here's his write up quote. Home Run Derby, a steamy night
in Atlanta with high humidity. Winds are also blowing out to
center lightly five mile per hour sustained up to 10 mile per
hour gusts. It's not the best weather I've
ever seen, but hot, humid and winds gently blowing out to
(09:45):
center is a boost to the bats and we should see some good
carry tonight for the Derby. Side note that there is a low
chance for a stray shower or storm.
But what's the most important thing that he just talked about
in his weather forecast for tonight?
Most important thing to me is wind is blowing out to center.
It's hot, it's humid. And again, the kicker here the,
(10:08):
the coup de I did notice, you know, longest
(10:33):
home run, I believe it's Byron Buxton is the favorite O'Neill
Cruz is a guy who crushes them. But if you add those two things
together, guys like it was notable to me enough just from
the betting market again, the over 479 F being juiced up every
book even higher than that. But when I saw that weather
forecast again, it's not 20° blowing out to dead center, but
(10:54):
5 to 10 hot, humid. This is good hitting conditions
here for tonight. So you add it all up here, guys,
I'm shopping around. I already did shop around.
I got over 479 1/2 feet and I got it at Caesar's over -115
save a little juice because DraftKings is 479 F over -120
(11:14):
And again, FanDuel bet MGM 480 1/2, ESPN bet 481 1/2.
So I feel like we're getting thebest number and we are kind of
playing the books off each other.
We are uncovering kind of deductive reasoning comparing
the books. And this also reminds me two of
the of the home runner or the what was it hot dog contest.
Because remember all the books were like 71 1/2, but circa was
(11:38):
70 1/2. So like a sharp book was lower
than the rest. Whereas again, that kind of told
you liability under or maybe value under.
Well, here it seems to me valueson the over.
So that's going to be my bet here for tonight in the Derby.
I don't care who it is. We need someone to hit a home
run 480 feet so we can hopefullycash this over 479 F at -115 at
(12:01):
Caesar's. Now I got a WNBA play for you.
And again, we don't talk a lot of WNBAI think we've made 2
plays this year, number one and one.
But the beauty of being a data-driven better is that you
don't have to watch the sports. You don't have to know every
player, you don't have to know insurance and outs of the
coaching and all the intricacies.
(12:22):
As long as you can read the market and understand what the
market is telling you, you have the ability to make a smart bet
that hopefully can cash for you.So I landed on a 10 O clock game
tonight, the Phoenix Mercury visiting the Golden State
Valkyries. Now you might have heard of the
Mercury. They had Britney Griner for a
while. I think she's on a different
team now, but the Golden State Valkyries, they're an expansion
(12:43):
team. They're brand new to the WNBA
and they're actually not that bad.
So let's breakdown this game like we would any other game.
So going into it, we got the Mercury having a good year, 14
and 6. They've won two straight.
They just beat the lynx, Minnesota Lynx 79 to 71.
They went out right as a 7 pointhome dog.
You know the valkyries again expansion team, but they're 10
and 10 this year. They did, however, lose 3 of
(13:06):
their last four. They lost to the aces one O 4 to
one O 2, but they did cover as a5 point Rd. dog.
So where did this line open? Well, the opening number for
this game was not the Phoenix Mercury better record and hotter
as of late. No, it opened Golden State home
team, the expansion team as a 1 1/2 point home favorite right
(13:26):
off the bat. Again, that really speaks
volumes to me why, even though you're factoring in homecourt,
you know why is the team with the worst one one loss record
who's lost three of their last four favored over the team with
a better record who was one two straight.
That's just fishy, fishy, fishy in favor of the fishy side.
That doesn't make sense. It should be the favorite with
the Valkyries. Now, you guys know at this point
(13:49):
we're trying to find some line movement that either kind of
doesn't make sense or does make sense depending on how the way
way you look at it and the line movement is toward the fishy
side. That doesn't make sense because
we've now seen the Golden State Valkyries get bet up -1 1/2 up
to -2 1/2. So the Lions going toward the
Valkyries, even though they're quote UN quote the worst team in
(14:10):
this matchup. Now let's look at the bet splits
at DraftKings. The Valkyries are getting 58% of
spread bets, 65% of spread dollars at Circa Valkyries, 57%
of spread bets, 81% of spread dollars.
So both DraftKings and Circa arelow bets, higher dollars in
favor of the Golden State Valkyries.
(14:30):
Now I know we haven't talked about, you know, basketball in
quite a while since you know, the NCAA tournament ended or
WNBA with the finals. But if you don't know, I like
the money line short favorites because I'm willing to pay a
little more juice and protect myself on the off chance that a
team wins the game but doesn't cover the number.
So when this game opened, valkyries -1 1/2.
(14:52):
The odds makers are telling you this could be a very, very close
game. So I would hate to lay now 2 1/2
the lines move in favor of the Valkyries.
Now the Valkyries win by one or two when I lose my bet.
So I'm playing Valkyries on the money line at -140.
Shop around. I believe that was Caesar's.
Some books are as high as -145 but draftking splits look good
(15:12):
on the money line. Only 50% of money line bets, but
64% of money line dollars in favor of Golden State.
I do have some system matches, believe it or not, in WNBA home
favorites with a line move in their favor.
Golden State would qualify here.Those teams are 41 and 1080
percent, 6% ROI this year. Favorite straight up off a loss
(15:33):
with a line move in their favor are 30 and seven straight up
this year, 81 percent, 13% ROI. That is pretty damn good.
And since the start of last year, we have favorite straight
up off a loss of the line move, 75 and 2178% with a 12% ROI.
(15:53):
So two really good systems lighting up on Golden State.
Golden State is 7 and three at home this year.
And maybe there's a bit of a revenge angle because the
Valkyries played the Mercury once prior this year.
They lost 86 to 77 on the road. So maybe that's something that
they, you know, are looking out for some revenge here for
tonight. But again, maybe you don't bet
(16:14):
WNBA. Maybe you love it, maybe you
don't. Maybe you're mad I don't talk
more WNBA. But my angle is, hey, baseball's
been pretty good to us. So why, you know, risk units
other where other places when baseball's been a money maker.
But hey, it's a it's a it's a slow, quiet week.
And you know, hey, this line's screaming at me with the
Valkyries with a pretty sharp, sharp line move.
(16:35):
So I'm on the Golden State Valkyries, I got a -140 on the
money line, I believe. Again, that was Caesar's so
longest Homer tonight in the Derby, over 479 1/2.
And Valkyries hopefully to win the damn game -140 on the money
line. So that about does it for
episode 317 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
(16:57):
powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
where we of course wrap things up and start first by saying
thank you. Thank you for taking the time
out of your day, out of your busy lives and the dog days of
summer. I know maybe betting isn't quite
as popular as other times of theyear like when football gets
back, but the fact you guys keepgrinding baseball with me and go
through these dog days together,it really means a lot.
(17:18):
So thank you for tuning in. If you did want to give this pod
a five star review on Spotify oriTunes, I would really
appreciate that if you want to click the follow button that way
you get alerted as soon as the new pod drops each day or
recommend the pod to a friend. I would also very much
appreciate that. Next, if you enjoy the style of
betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp contrarian betting,
(17:39):
betting games based on the numbers, the line movement, the
splits, the system matches, betting games with our head and
not our heart. The style of betting has
appealed to you. You want to learn more about
data-driven betting or you know someone in your life who could
use some data-driven tips. I'd love for you guys to go to
Amazon.com and then type in the NFL.
Sorry, I just I just jumped to the gun type in the everything
(18:01):
Guide to Sports betting, the first book ever wrote.
I'm just so excited about my newbook, which is coming out now in
less than a month. But the Everything guide to
sports betting, it's great for brand new betters, even newish
intermediate betters who are looking for more systems and
strategies and tips. But it's got everything I've
learned in the industry, how lines are set, how and why they
move, how to read line movement,how to locate sharp action, how
(18:21):
to place them in person or online, how to shop for the best
line, how to set up a bankroll management plan, all included in
the Everything Guide to Sports betting.
Now while you're still on Amazon.com getting the
Everything Guide, then type in the NFL Sharp Betting playbook.
Guys, we are officially less than a month away.
August 12th, baby, if you'd liketo pre-order my new book and get
(18:41):
a leg up and get prepared for the NFL season and support the
team, I would love for you guys to pre-order a copy on
Amazon.com and make me happy, make my publisher Triumph Books
very happy. And actually just got my box of
books and I gave them to my mom and dad and my sister over the
weekend. So it was a pretty cool moment
for the family. Pick one up or both and bring
(19:04):
them to the sports book. I'll sign them for you and buy a
beer or ginger ale or truly and we'll sweat some some Derby and
some WNBA together tonight. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
and Juice Reel yet? Well, you better if you haven't
because they're great tools to add to your data-driven sports
betting toolbox. Rhythm fantastic for their AI
backed models and predictions for game bets and player props
(19:25):
for WNBA and MLB. And then of course, Juice Reel.
So many great features with the Juice Reel app.
First off, if you enjoy this pod, it's free.
I'm going to pass the hat if youwant to toss in a $5.00 bill.
I'd love for you guys to sign upto get the all systems go best
bet picks from the juicer lap. It cost you $4.99 a week, but
(19:45):
that way you can support the podagain.
Good, good, good, good meal out at the restaurant.
You tip your your server bartender treats you well, gets
you a new drink when you want itor fills your water glass.
Hey, you do you look to tip themas well.
But yeah, tip your podcast host in the form of signing up for
those $4.99 a week. Best bet picks you'll get every
(20:07):
play, you'll get them earlier inthe day as well.
Hopefully beat some closing lines.
You also get the Robo Jackson best bet picks the sharp mush
indicators, the arbitrage plays,the shop for the best line
features. Sync up your books, get a
running report card of your action all included when you
download Juice Reel. So download rhythm, download
Juice Reel, give them a five star review in the App Store.
Next, you need a live odds page.And believe me, if you haven't
(20:31):
used it yet, you are really making a difficult industry even
more difficult because you got to know all the games available
to bet that day. You need live scoring.
You need live lines to pop up asyou're watching the game if you
want to get down and take advantage of an in game
opportunity. But most importantly, live odds
page lets you basically track the market, keep your finger on
the pulse of what's happening. Identify steam.
(20:52):
When teams are taking in big money, they other odds get lit
up in red. Shop for the best line quickly
find the best number. All these great features are
available to you with the Odds Logic live Odds page.
So I'd love for you guys to giveOdds Logic a shot.
There's a 7 day free trial and 50% off your first month of
service promo right now. I am an affiliate of Odds Logic.
(21:14):
I'm a big believer. I use Odds Logic.
So if you want to give it a shot, just go to
oddslogic.com/josh 123. You got to you got to do the
slash Josh 123 at the end to get50% off your first month and
seven day free trial. Next.
I got to figure out a way to, you know, usually I can, you
know, like just explain these last few things.
(21:34):
The housekeeping at the end of the pod.
I can like literally close my eyes, do it in my sleep.
But I got to find a way to to now mention the new all systems
go merch store because unveiled it last week.
I'm seeing you guys buy some some swag, which is really
awesome because I want to see people all across the country at
different books wearing a fade the public sweatshirt or a
(21:55):
reverse line move or contrarian bet or, you know, don't parlay
sweatshirt, but it's all available in the new all systems
go merch store. You can find the link inside the
body of each podcast. I've been putting it in there.
You can also go to the all systems go Twitter page and
there's a pin tweet getting you right to the the merch store.
(22:18):
So I'd love for you guys to support the pod.
I think they're pretty cool shirts because they'll say the
tag phrase on the front, like reverse line movement or
whatever. Then on the back you got the
logo for the pot, which is pretty cool if you ask me.
But that about does it for today's podcast.
Again, trying to make chicken salad out of chicken.
You know what? Because it's kind of a weird
quiet week, but two bets tonightthat I think we made a pretty
(22:38):
good case for. So if we can get at least one
and get hopefully 2, that would be even better.
But as always, guys leave you a couple things, whether I see you
at the Borgata in Atlantic City,Twin River in Rhode Island, the
Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
Casino or MGM Springfield. Of course, in my neck of the
woods in Western Mass or in the at the Nash where I where I'm
(23:02):
not too far from right now, we're out in the desert where
the true grinders get down or Billy Walter sends his number
runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the South
Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
stadium swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me,
hopefully show me a Derby, longest Homer, longest Dong
ticket and hopefully Valkyrie's ticket and guess what?
(23:25):
First one's on me, next one's onyou, and we'll sweat the Derby
and WNBA here together tonight. So as always, guys, whether
we're coming off a great day, a terrible day, somewhere in
between grinding, hot, cold, we just got to stick to the model,
stick to the blueprint. There's going to be highs,
there's going to be lows, and we're not going to win every
bet. We never will, but we always
strive to win every bet. That's the challenge of sports
(23:47):
betting. But I can tell you one thing, no
such thing as a locker guaranteeand betting.
But I can tell you that if we stick to this model, making bets
with our head and not our heart,making bets that check off the
boxes against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat
bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
If we can do that long term, I'mpretty confident we're going to
be successful sports bettors. So have a great Monday night
(24:09):
everybody. Let's get some some long homers
and go Valkyries. And of course, we'll be right
back at it tomorrow talking probably an All Star game bet,
maybe WNBA and I got some other ideas.
Maybe I'll surprise you tomorrow.
This is always the week where I got to get creative on the pod
because again, look, unfortunately we don't have a
huge slate of MLB, which I already missed right now.
(24:32):
But hey, we'll be right back at it when it comes back on Friday.
But good luck everyone. Enjoy your Monday night and I
will see you tomorrow for episode 319 of the All Systems
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
Good luck everybody and let's have a good night.
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