July 23, 2025 • 26 mins
In Episode 321, Josh dishes out a 3-pack of MLB plays for Wednesday.
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Josh's new book "The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook" comes out on August 12, 2025
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:19):
Hello, and welcome to episode 321 of the All Systems Go Sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Wednesday. It's officially hump day.
That means we are halfway through our work week and Can
(00:42):
you believe it or not guys, we're winding down the month of
July this week, next week, and then we're going to have the NFL
Hall of Fame game. Training camps are already
getting getting open here and underway.
College football right around the corner.
So this is literally the calm before the storm.
So each day kind of ramp up a little bit more as we get closer
and closer to the return of our favorite time of year.
(01:03):
I would argue I love summer betting baseball every day, but
I fully admit the king of sportsbetting, of course, is football,
and we're not that far off. So looking forward to that, of
course, but in the meantime, we're going to keep grinding
Major League Baseball. So I do have for you today,
guys, a three pack of MLB sweatsgoing to see if we can try to go
2IN1 eek out a winning day. And we do have a lot of day
(01:24):
games going on. So I actually tweeted this from
my Twitter account X account, asit's now officially known as at
Josh under score insights. But with a lot of day games, a
lot of day sweats, you might be asking yourself, hey, you know,
not only is there a pre flop or an opportunity to bet a game
before the game starts, but whatif you want to get in in game,
you know, live in game wagering odds.
(01:44):
Now, I'm not a huge live in gamewagering guy.
I think there are, you know, obviously opportunities here.
But a lot of, you know, the workthat I do and the way that I
approach betting is dissecting all and, you know, gathering all
that information that splits thedate of the line moves the
system matches preflop before the game starts and trying to
make again the best day driven bet that I can.
(02:05):
I think there's a lot of value though, if you want to take
advantage of maybe an in game total that is offering value, or
maybe you want to head somethingyou, you know, you bet a dog at,
I don't know, plus 150 and you know, they're up to nothing.
And maybe you can come back the other way and get the the team
that was favored before the gamestarted at plus money as well.
Create an arbitrage opportunity scalping.
(02:27):
That's what a lot of pros call it.
But either way, I have a lot of people ask about, you know, in
game wagering odds. I just want to tell you as I do
everyday, Odds Logic has you covered.
So I tweeted out a photo of the live odds page from Odds Logic.
With all the games underway, thelive scoring and really what's
kind of fun to watch, especiallyif you're sweating a game,
Hopefully your live odds are getting better and better.
(02:50):
But the in game wagering odds get updated literally after
every single pitch. So if you're looking for more
data, more information, live in game wagering, you know you
should always check out Odds Logic.
And again, I use that special link to get you a 7 day free
trial and 50% off your first month, which is Odds
logic.com/josh 123. So that being said guys, before
(03:12):
we dive into our three pack for today, I buried the lead.
We busted out the brooms last night.
How about a nice little 3 and O clean sweep.
You love to see it. Plus 2.26 units.
I had a couple of great hits early with the Marlins member
with Miami. Basically we had public San
Diego, but line kept steaming toward the Marlins.
They held on for a four to threewin.
(03:34):
Also got the Cleveland Guardiansbig steam in their favor.
Remember they were like -130 up to like -160 even -170 good
closing line value there with the guards.
And then really kind of my favorite play the night the
Seattle Mariners eeking out A1 nothing win over Milwaukee and
the young stubbed young stud Jake Jacob Mizeroski.
(03:54):
So you love to see it. You love to bust out the brooms
3 and O + 2.26 units. And really what I love about a
sweep is that, you know, we enter each day with realistic
expectations. That's so critical, so important
because a lot of new betters, especially when they're first
breaking in, you know, they expect to go 3 and O.
They think they're going to sweep the board, they're going
to become millionaires. And then you realize O betting
(04:15):
is actually really, really hard.So when you go into a a three
pack and say, as I always try tomention, let's try to go 2 and
one each out of winning day, that makes it that much more, I
don't know, exciting and rewarding when you can bust out
the brooms and go 3 and O. So do we always expect to go 3
and O No 3 plays trying to go 2 and one get a quarter of a unit,
1/2 unit, whatever the case may be.
(04:36):
But again, makes those three andO's that much better.
So without further ado, let's waste no more time because there
are a bunch of day games and I have an early game I want to
talk about. So with that being said, let's
dive right in. Three pack of MLB sweats.
The first one, let's go out to Chicago.
Let's get some Chicago dogs. What do you think?
Who went in a fight, Dick car orhurricane?
Well, I hope the Cubs win in a fight today against the Royals
(04:58):
because we got 2/20, 2:20 PM Eastern Time, first pitch,
Royals at Cubs. Let's set the stage for this one
and I'll give you my play and you might already know based on
a little cool I gave you who I'll be leaning on with this
one. But anyway, this is the rubber
match of a three-game interleague series.
The Royals, who are 49 and 53, they dominated the opener 12 to
(05:18):
four, came through easily as a +125 row dog.
But then the Cubbies, who are 60and 41, they bounced back with a
Big 6 nothing win yesterday, took care of business as a big
-265 home favorite. So for this afternoon series
finale, the Royals and the ball to ready Seth Lugo.
He's six and five with a 2.94 ERA.
(05:39):
Cubs, meanwhile, going with the fellow ready, Colin Ray.
And again, I joke about this, but I always for years I thought
his name was Rhea or Rhea. No, it's Ray.
It's pronounced Ray, but it's Rea.
Actually, I remember him with the Brewers.
Anyway, he's 8 and three with a 3.8 O ERA.
What have you seen across the market for this one?
Let's game open. Cubs around a -, 145 home
(06:00):
favorite. The Royals around a + 125 row
dog and pros their hammer in Chicago.
Cubs have been steamed up -145 now all the way up to around
-170 Now I got Chicago at -162 alittle bit earlier today.
Again, shameless plug, but if you want to get these plays
earlier before the pod and you want to support the pod, you
(06:20):
can't sign up to get the all systems go.
Best bet picks for only $4.99 a week and you would get that Cubs
play a little earlier and get some CLV.
But anyway, select the Cubs their current price.
Yes, it's more expensive, but tells me smart money continues
to pour in on Chicago. Now, if you look at the splits,
Cubs at DraftKings, 84% of bets,nearly 90% of the money.
(06:40):
So kind of a big pro and Joe betsplit with both sharp and public
betters riding the cubbies here.Always think it's important to
note like, you know, Publix probably just saying, hey, Cubs
are really good play the Cubs whereas wise guys, they're not
really thinking that way. They're thinking, hey, you know,
I've capped this game. My internal numbers say Cubs
should be, I don't know -160 -, 170 so that when the line opened
(07:02):
at -145 that was value that presented an edge or an
advantage over the books, which is why they hit Chicago.
But anyway, aside from the steammove, the good bet splits, I
have a couple system matches litup on the Cubbies.
First one is a non division homefavorite off a win, getting at
least $0.05 of steam or more. Those teams are 149 and 7866%
(07:24):
with a 4% ROI this year and the Cubs in particular.
Now, it's not our favorite system, Cubs off a loss who
continue to be great, but listento these stats.
The Cubs are 31 and 1371 percent, 9% ROI as a home
favorite. That makes them the fifth most
profitable home favorite in baseball.
So when they're at home at Wrigley and they're favored,
(07:46):
they tend to do pretty good whenthey are playing as a home
favorite against a below 500 team, which is the case here.
The Cubs are 16 and four this season, 80% with a 16% ROI.
And when they are home favorite -150 or more, the Cubs are
listen to this 25 and 681 percent, 20% ROI.
(08:06):
So we got a lot of systems lit up on Chicago here.
Now, the Cubs, of course, will be banking on Ray to pitch well
and hopefully get to Lugo. But the Cubs have the better
offense kind of by far. Knock on wood, but they're
hitting 256 as a team, 150 home runs, 533 runs scored.
Kansas City only hitting 245 as a team, only 81 homers and only
(08:28):
355 runs scored. Now, Colin Ray in particular,
he's been really good In the month of July, he's made three
starts. He has a 1.45 ERA.
He is only giving up three earned runs and 18.2 and he's
pitched. Meanwhile, the Cubs, they're
seven and one and Ray's last eight starts.
Meanwhile, Lugo hasn't been terrible, but in the month of
July, he's made three starts. He has an ERA of 3.93, giving up
(08:52):
eight runs at 18 point, 18.1 innings pitched.
So early game here, but big steam hitting Chicago, tons of
system matches, lighting up on the Cubs.
And even though it's small, I did open the Juice Reel app and
noticed a 5% sharp mush edge on Chicago, 5% more of the sharper
winning betters who have downloaded Juice Reel like you
guys and I've synced up their books are going with the
(09:14):
Cubbies. So I'm going to follow the Steam
Good system matches here, layingit with the Cubs.
It'd be nice if the Cubbies could come through and start our
day off with a winner. I'm on Chicago -162 at FanDuel
again. Shop around.
Some books as high as -170 next one for you.
Another day game or late afternoon game?
How about a 3:40 PM Eastern Time?
(09:35):
First pitch, let's go out to theWest Coast where the Seattle
Mariners are hosting the Milwaukee Brew Crew.
Now much like that Cubs Royals game, this is also the rubber
match of a three-game interleague set.
The Brewers who are 60 and 41 onthe year they took the opener 6
nothing cruised as a + 110 row dog.
Then the Ms. were 54 and 47 had a huge 1 nothing bounce back
(09:58):
when for us yesterday coming through as a -135 home favorite.
So pitch match up for this one looks pretty good on paper.
Quinn Priester who? The Brewers, I still don't
understand this. The Red Sox had Priester, they
let him go for basically nothinglike a draft pick, like a
compensation pick. And now look, look what he's
doing with Milwaukee. You can tell him, a disgruntled
(10:19):
Red Sox fan, why did you trade this guy away?
You didn't even let him have a single start to prove he's he's
decent. But anyway, he's 8 and two 3.33
ERA this year. Mariners, meanwhile, going with
the veteran righty Luis Castillo.
Remember he was with the Reds for a while, seven and five,
3.21 ERA. And what do we see across the
market for this one? This one's kind of an
(10:39):
interesting because the line opens Seattle -130 and basically
Milwaukee around a + 110 Rd. dog.
And earlier this morning you gota bunch of 5050 line move steam
hit Seattle. So basically, the public is down
the middle 5050, but the Mariners went up from -130 up to
-135 So that would match as, of course, a 5050 line move.
(11:03):
You know, theoretically in a vacuum, tickets are split right
down the middle. You would assume no reason to
adjust the price because odds makers have balanced action both
sides. So that line move towards
Seattle pull the smart money wasgoing with the Mariners kind of
quietly. I also really like the Mariners
bet splits, 45% of bets, but 69%of dollars at circa.
(11:24):
It's really good low bets, higher dollar split.
And then also that system sweet spot home favorites -130 to -150
playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous year.
That system is 60 and 3762 percent, 7% ROI.
You also have a favorite correlative betting favorite low
total told this one is 7 1/2 juice down like and someone's
(11:45):
even going down to seven. So if your amount of expected
run score more likely to come from quote UN quote, that better
team. And I really want to back
Castillo. He's been really good in July.
He's made, knock on wood, three starts, 1.45 ERA, only giving up
three runs and 18.2 innings pitched.
Got Mariners, meanwhile, 5 and Oin his last five starts and on
the road, 4.74 ERA at home for Castillo, 2 point O, 6 ERA.
(12:11):
So all that being said, I'm like, hey, let's fire on
Seattle. I got him at -134 a lot of the
market was -135 even -140 and then as I'm starting the pod, I
noticed my odds logic live odds page.
The line went down a little bit.Seattle fell down to -125 and
I'm like, go what's going on? I go to look and I go to what I
(12:31):
would argue is a great site. You should bookmark Underdog
MLB. They do a really good job at
putting out the starting lineups.
And I'm saying, OK, why did Seattle drop out of nowhere -135
down to -125 well, guess what? The big dumper or the big
dumpster big dumper, whatever they call him, Cal Raleigh, the
Home Run Derby king, he is not in the starting lineup.
(12:53):
So the reason why Seattle fell $0.10 is not quote UN quote
smart money hitting Milwaukee. It's an adjustment with Cal
Raleigh no longer in the lineup.So in a way it's like, damn, you
know you don't have one of the better players for Seattle.
But in another situation, you know, you're still having a good
bet split. You're still having a favorite
low total. And Long story short, one of the
(13:16):
T-shirts or sweatshirts, hoodiesyou can buy on the All Systems
Go merch store is a hoodie that says dance with the one who
brung you. So I know my guy Devin Fernandez
down in Florida knows this one and my guy Darush, of course.
But I'm going to dance with the one who brung me.
I don't love that. Cal Rally is out.
You know, nothing we can expect,you know, that came out of the
(13:37):
blue. It happens.
Maybe he'll pinch it later. Maybe they don't need him.
Hopefully they'll win anyway. But I'm sticking with Seattle.
I'm not buying out. I'm not betting Milwaukee.
I'm just staying with the Mariners in this one.
So again, kind of an annoying break, No Cal Rally, but that is
why the line dropped. But I'm sticking with Seattle.
I got a bad -134 if you do want to play Seattle, they're still
(14:00):
kind of contrarian at Circa and 5050 and favorite, low total and
interleague favorite. It's just the line has dipped a
bit without Raleigh. So I'm sticking with Seattle
-134 if you are uncomfortable now playing Seattle without
Raleigh, I understand, but I am.I'm Dan, so the one who brung
me. I'm on the Mariners -134 last
(14:21):
bit of the night. They came through for us last
night. Can they do it again tonight?
Well, I'm hoping so. 6:40 PM Eastern Time.
Let's go right back to Clevelandwhere the Guardians are hosting
the Baltimore Orioles. Now.
Going into it, we got the Guards50 and 50 back up to 500.
They've taken the first two games in this four-game series.
They won the opener 4:50 as a -145 home favorite.
(14:45):
They won again last night, six to three, which was great for
us. Part of our sweep as a -, 160
home favorite. So pitching match up for
tonight, we got Zach Aflan goingfor the O's.
Orioles are now 44 and 56 on theyear.
Aflan is 6 and five but has a 5.95 ERA.
We're on him in here in a second.
(15:06):
Guardians, meanwhile, going withthe Ready Slade, Sesame or
Sesone. He was part of that Diamondbacks
trade for Josh Naylor. I believe he's five and four,
3.8 for ERA. So what do we see across the
market? Well, nothing but steam toward
the guards Going guardians here,guys.
Guardians open this game around 8 -, 120 short home favorite
(15:27):
Baltimore around a + 100 row dog.
And we've seen Cleveland get steamed up -120 now up to -130
so about $0.10 of movement in favor of the guards.
Pretty good bet splits on the guardians.
If we look at DraftKings, Cleveland's getting 72% of money
line bets, but 80% of money linedollars.
At Circa Cleveland's getting 63%of money line bets, 74% of money
(15:51):
line dollars, so low bets, higher dollar splits on lighting
up on Cleveland at both the national public DraftKings book
as well as the sharp desert wiseguy Circa sports book.
And we do have quite a few system matches.
I got 5 lit up on Cleveland, so let's run through a few of them.
Home favorites of the line move in their favor who also made the
playoffs the previous year. Those teams are two O 4 and one
(16:13):
O 766% four percent ROI. Non division home favorites off
a win with Steam $0.05 or more, 149 and 7866% also a 4% ROI.
And then we look at home favorites who made the playoffs
the previous year playing an opponent who also made the
playoffs the previous year. Those teams are 94 and 5663
(16:35):
percent 5% ROI. Sweet spot Home favorites -130
to -150 playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous
year. 60 and 3762% with a 7% ROI.
Guardians in particular in the spot have done well as a home
favorite. They're 15 and 865%, nine
percent ROI. That makes them the 8th best
(16:58):
home chalk favorite in baseball.And a big part of the cap for me
is backing Sesame and fading Eflin because Slade, Sesame or
Sesone again. I don't listen to the game
tonight. Get the correct pronunciation.
He's giving up two earned runs or less, and six of his last
eight starts he's been pretty good, pretty reliable.
Knock on Wood Efflin, by the way, Not only is he coming back
(17:21):
from the injured list, so I'm not sure if he's on a pitch
count or not, but before he wenton the injured list, he had made
5 starts in the month of June. Get this, he had an 8.72 ERA,
gave up 21 earned runs and 21.2 innings pitched.
So this is a guy that, again, coming off an injury, hasn't
pitched well this year. Cleveland's playing pretty hot
(17:42):
right now. I'm hoping that the Guardians
can get to F1 and post another victory at home.
So I got Cleveland -130 pretty much widely available here, but
some good steam and a big systemmatch play here on the
Guardians. So let's go guards.
So 3 pack overall. Let's try to get 2 out of these
three. Each got a winning day.
(18:02):
Cubs, Mariners, Cleveland, Guardians.
So that about does it for episode 321 of the All Systems
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
This is the part of the pod, youknow where we at, where we're at
now we're wrapping things up andwe're starting first by saying
thank you. Thank you to you out there,
whoever you are. I may not know you, but I love
(18:22):
you. I respect you and I appreciate
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(18:44):
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to a friend that also be fantastic.
Next, if you enjoy the style of betting breakdown, you notice we
don't talk parlays, we don't talk about all this team is due
or I really like this team todayfor my own biases without any
data behind it. No, we make bets based on not
(19:06):
gut instinct or bias, but based on line movement that splits
numbers. You can quantify trying to read
the market and picking up on context clues.
If this style of betting has kind of you gotten the bug, you
know, like I got the bug a long time ago.
You see the value in it, you're starting to see the results.
Hopefully it's making you're providing your blueprint to
attack pretty much every sport. If that's the case and you want
(19:29):
to learn more about data-driven betting or you have someone in
your life who could, you know, kind of benefit from some from
some data-driven tips. I would love it if you guys
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guide to sports betting. It's the first book ever wrote.
Very proud of it, but it's got everything I've learned in the
industry. It's great for beginners or even
(19:49):
intermediate betters, but it really provides the data-driven
blueprint. How lines are set, how and why
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
action, how to go contrarian, how to place a bet in person or
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management plan. It's all included in the
Everything guide to sports betting.
While you're picking up the Everything guide on Amazon, also
(20:10):
don't don't close out the tab oryou know, go to Instagram.
You can do whatever you want, ofcourse, but stay on it.
Stay on not Instagram, stay on Amazon and then type in the NFL
Sharp Betting playbook. It's my new book.
It comes out. I honestly can't believe it.
We got to get a countdown going here.
It's coming out August 12th, really close here, but it's got
(20:33):
really really just everything I've I've learned and kind of
picked up on over the last few years.
And it's all about how to bet the NFL from a data-driven
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on your, you know, NFL betting and kind of get ready for the
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You want to support the pod, youwant to make me and my publisher
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(20:54):
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I'll buy a beer or ginger ale, or truly, we'll get some nachos
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Sounds pretty good to me. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
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(21:16):
Rhythm fantastic for their AI backed models and predictions
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Pretty soon they're going to have football coming back.
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Or not Rhythm, but we also have Juice Reel.
I mentioned earlier. But if you want to support the
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(21:37):
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So I get literally a dollar's worth of insight each pod.
Hey, this pod's free, but I'm going to pass the hat, the tip
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(22:00):
Then you can tail follow, do whatever you like.
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When you do that, you're also going at the Robo Jackson best
(22:21):
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(22:41):
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the pod? The importance of live scoring
and in game wagering because we got day sweats today, but you
need a live odds page again. I wouldn't be, you know,
(23:02):
promoting this if I didn't, you know, fully understand and
realize and know over the courseof a long period of time how
important a live odds is. Live odds page is to a sports
better, because if you're going to be a dangerous and better
like me, you got to know where did the line open at?
How is it moved? What's the current price shop
for the best price. Pull up the line history.
(23:22):
Identify steam. As soon as the team gets hit,
gets lit up in red. You know, get the live scoring,
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you give odds logic a shot. So give you the link before, but
if you want to try it out, 7 dayfree trial, 50% off your first
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(23:45):
Almost last but not least, do you want to feed the public
sweatshirt? Do you want to dance with the
one who brung your T-shirt? If you want any All Systems Go
swag, it is now available on theAll Systems Go Merch page, but
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And if you ever want the link, you can always hit me up at Josh
under score insight. Shoot me Adm.
(24:06):
I'll send you the link. So final two thoughts, of
course, as always, whether I seeyou at the Borgata in Atlantic
City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the
Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield
in my neck of the woods in around Boston, the Nash, of
(24:26):
course, or out in the desert where the true grinders get down
or Billy Walters sends his number runners where the lowest
juice possible is found at the South Point or Sweat and sharp
contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
When you cash a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
you're going to walk up to me. We're going to we're going to
meet up at the sports book. I'll be coming from one end of
the book, you'll be coming from the other.
(24:48):
We'll see each other. We'll high 5, high 5 to the
Borat fans. And you know what?
We'll bust out a broom and do a little, do a little man.
What was he called? Fred Astaire, a little Fred
Astaire dance because hey, we swept the board last night.
So it's always hey, we there aredays we go on O and three when
you go 3 and O. And it's OK to be a little
(25:09):
excited about it because it's not that easy to do, I should
say. But anyway, guys, show me a
Marlins ticket, Guardians ticket, Mariners ticket.
First one's on me, next one's onyou.
We'll post about the book and sweat some MLB plays for today.
As always, guys 3 and OO and three, two and one, one and two.
Whether we're hot or cold, whether we just swept the board
(25:31):
or got swept, we can never get too high when we're hot.
We can never get too low when we're cold.
Remember, it's a tough market tobe consistently.
So when you're when you're down in the dumps and losing an ice
cold snake bit, don't, don't getdown on yourself.
Don't give up. Keep grinding.
You know when you're hot, thingsare going well.
Don't get cocky and think you'regoing to sweep the board every
day forever. Nope, you just got to keep
(25:52):
grinding, staying even keel, making data-driven plays with
your head and not your heart. That's always our goal.
So we can do that, find games that fit our model against the
public, with the house, with thepros, flat bet, avoid parlays
and get that CLV. If we can do that, I'm pretty
confident we're going to be successful sports bettors.
So have a great Wednesday, everybody.
Enjoy your hump day. Let's get some winners on the
(26:14):
diamond. And we right back at it tomorrow
for episode 322 on a Thirsty Thursday edition of the All
Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
Good luck everybody and have a great Wednesday.
Hello, and welcome to episode 321 of the All Systems Go Sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Wednesday. It's officially hump day.
That means we are halfway through our work week and Can
(00:42):
you believe it or not guys, we're winding down the month of
July this week, next week, and then we're going to have the NFL
Hall of Fame game. Training camps are already
getting getting open here and underway.
College football right around the corner.
So this is literally the calm before the storm.
So each day kind of ramp up a little bit more as we get closer
and closer to the return of our favorite time of year.
(01:03):
I would argue I love summer betting baseball every day, but
I fully admit the king of sportsbetting, of course, is football,
and we're not that far off. So looking forward to that, of
course, but in the meantime, we're going to keep grinding
Major League Baseball. So I do have for you today,
guys, a three pack of MLB sweatsgoing to see if we can try to go
2IN1 eek out a winning day. And we do have a lot of day
(01:24):
games going on. So I actually tweeted this from
my Twitter account X account, asit's now officially known as at
Josh under score insights. But with a lot of day games, a
lot of day sweats, you might be asking yourself, hey, you know,
not only is there a pre flop or an opportunity to bet a game
before the game starts, but whatif you want to get in in game,
you know, live in game wagering odds.
(01:44):
Now, I'm not a huge live in gamewagering guy.
I think there are, you know, obviously opportunities here.
But a lot of, you know, the workthat I do and the way that I
approach betting is dissecting all and, you know, gathering all
that information that splits thedate of the line moves the
system matches preflop before the game starts and trying to
make again the best day driven bet that I can.
(02:05):
I think there's a lot of value though, if you want to take
advantage of maybe an in game total that is offering value, or
maybe you want to head somethingyou, you know, you bet a dog at,
I don't know, plus 150 and you know, they're up to nothing.
And maybe you can come back the other way and get the the team
that was favored before the gamestarted at plus money as well.
Create an arbitrage opportunity scalping.
(02:27):
That's what a lot of pros call it.
But either way, I have a lot of people ask about, you know, in
game wagering odds. I just want to tell you as I do
everyday, Odds Logic has you covered.
So I tweeted out a photo of the live odds page from Odds Logic.
With all the games underway, thelive scoring and really what's
kind of fun to watch, especiallyif you're sweating a game,
Hopefully your live odds are getting better and better.
(02:50):
But the in game wagering odds get updated literally after
every single pitch. So if you're looking for more
data, more information, live in game wagering, you know you
should always check out Odds Logic.
And again, I use that special link to get you a 7 day free
trial and 50% off your first month, which is Odds
logic.com/josh 123. So that being said guys, before
(03:12):
we dive into our three pack for today, I buried the lead.
We busted out the brooms last night.
How about a nice little 3 and O clean sweep.
You love to see it. Plus 2.26 units.
I had a couple of great hits early with the Marlins member
with Miami. Basically we had public San
Diego, but line kept steaming toward the Marlins.
They held on for a four to threewin.
(03:34):
Also got the Cleveland Guardiansbig steam in their favor.
Remember they were like -130 up to like -160 even -170 good
closing line value there with the guards.
And then really kind of my favorite play the night the
Seattle Mariners eeking out A1 nothing win over Milwaukee and
the young stubbed young stud Jake Jacob Mizeroski.
(03:54):
So you love to see it. You love to bust out the brooms
3 and O + 2.26 units. And really what I love about a
sweep is that, you know, we enter each day with realistic
expectations. That's so critical, so important
because a lot of new betters, especially when they're first
breaking in, you know, they expect to go 3 and O.
They think they're going to sweep the board, they're going
to become millionaires. And then you realize O betting
(04:15):
is actually really, really hard.So when you go into a a three
pack and say, as I always try tomention, let's try to go 2 and
one each out of winning day, that makes it that much more, I
don't know, exciting and rewarding when you can bust out
the brooms and go 3 and O. So do we always expect to go 3
and O No 3 plays trying to go 2 and one get a quarter of a unit,
1/2 unit, whatever the case may be.
(04:36):
But again, makes those three andO's that much better.
So without further ado, let's waste no more time because there
are a bunch of day games and I have an early game I want to
talk about. So with that being said, let's
dive right in. Three pack of MLB sweats.
The first one, let's go out to Chicago.
Let's get some Chicago dogs. What do you think?
Who went in a fight, Dick car orhurricane?
Well, I hope the Cubs win in a fight today against the Royals
(04:58):
because we got 2/20, 2:20 PM Eastern Time, first pitch,
Royals at Cubs. Let's set the stage for this one
and I'll give you my play and you might already know based on
a little cool I gave you who I'll be leaning on with this
one. But anyway, this is the rubber
match of a three-game interleague series.
The Royals, who are 49 and 53, they dominated the opener 12 to
(05:18):
four, came through easily as a +125 row dog.
But then the Cubbies, who are 60and 41, they bounced back with a
Big 6 nothing win yesterday, took care of business as a big
-265 home favorite. So for this afternoon series
finale, the Royals and the ball to ready Seth Lugo.
He's six and five with a 2.94 ERA.
(05:39):
Cubs, meanwhile, going with the fellow ready, Colin Ray.
And again, I joke about this, but I always for years I thought
his name was Rhea or Rhea. No, it's Ray.
It's pronounced Ray, but it's Rea.
Actually, I remember him with the Brewers.
Anyway, he's 8 and three with a 3.8 O ERA.
What have you seen across the market for this one?
Let's game open. Cubs around a -, 145 home
(06:00):
favorite. The Royals around a + 125 row
dog and pros their hammer in Chicago.
Cubs have been steamed up -145 now all the way up to around
-170 Now I got Chicago at -162 alittle bit earlier today.
Again, shameless plug, but if you want to get these plays
earlier before the pod and you want to support the pod, you
(06:20):
can't sign up to get the all systems go.
Best bet picks for only $4.99 a week and you would get that Cubs
play a little earlier and get some CLV.
But anyway, select the Cubs their current price.
Yes, it's more expensive, but tells me smart money continues
to pour in on Chicago. Now, if you look at the splits,
Cubs at DraftKings, 84% of bets,nearly 90% of the money.
(06:40):
So kind of a big pro and Joe betsplit with both sharp and public
betters riding the cubbies here.Always think it's important to
note like, you know, Publix probably just saying, hey, Cubs
are really good play the Cubs whereas wise guys, they're not
really thinking that way. They're thinking, hey, you know,
I've capped this game. My internal numbers say Cubs
should be, I don't know -160 -, 170 so that when the line opened
(07:02):
at -145 that was value that presented an edge or an
advantage over the books, which is why they hit Chicago.
But anyway, aside from the steammove, the good bet splits, I
have a couple system matches litup on the Cubbies.
First one is a non division homefavorite off a win, getting at
least $0.05 of steam or more. Those teams are 149 and 7866%
(07:24):
with a 4% ROI this year and the Cubs in particular.
Now, it's not our favorite system, Cubs off a loss who
continue to be great, but listento these stats.
The Cubs are 31 and 1371 percent, 9% ROI as a home
favorite. That makes them the fifth most
profitable home favorite in baseball.
So when they're at home at Wrigley and they're favored,
(07:46):
they tend to do pretty good whenthey are playing as a home
favorite against a below 500 team, which is the case here.
The Cubs are 16 and four this season, 80% with a 16% ROI.
And when they are home favorite -150 or more, the Cubs are
listen to this 25 and 681 percent, 20% ROI.
(08:06):
So we got a lot of systems lit up on Chicago here.
Now, the Cubs, of course, will be banking on Ray to pitch well
and hopefully get to Lugo. But the Cubs have the better
offense kind of by far. Knock on wood, but they're
hitting 256 as a team, 150 home runs, 533 runs scored.
Kansas City only hitting 245 as a team, only 81 homers and only
(08:28):
355 runs scored. Now, Colin Ray in particular,
he's been really good In the month of July, he's made three
starts. He has a 1.45 ERA.
He is only giving up three earned runs and 18.2 and he's
pitched. Meanwhile, the Cubs, they're
seven and one and Ray's last eight starts.
Meanwhile, Lugo hasn't been terrible, but in the month of
July, he's made three starts. He has an ERA of 3.93, giving up
(08:52):
eight runs at 18 point, 18.1 innings pitched.
So early game here, but big steam hitting Chicago, tons of
system matches, lighting up on the Cubs.
And even though it's small, I did open the Juice Reel app and
noticed a 5% sharp mush edge on Chicago, 5% more of the sharper
winning betters who have downloaded Juice Reel like you
guys and I've synced up their books are going with the
(09:14):
Cubbies. So I'm going to follow the Steam
Good system matches here, layingit with the Cubs.
It'd be nice if the Cubbies could come through and start our
day off with a winner. I'm on Chicago -162 at FanDuel
again. Shop around.
Some books as high as -170 next one for you.
Another day game or late afternoon game?
How about a 3:40 PM Eastern Time?
(09:35):
First pitch, let's go out to theWest Coast where the Seattle
Mariners are hosting the Milwaukee Brew Crew.
Now much like that Cubs Royals game, this is also the rubber
match of a three-game interleague set.
The Brewers who are 60 and 41 onthe year they took the opener 6
nothing cruised as a + 110 row dog.
Then the Ms. were 54 and 47 had a huge 1 nothing bounce back
(09:58):
when for us yesterday coming through as a -135 home favorite.
So pitch match up for this one looks pretty good on paper.
Quinn Priester who? The Brewers, I still don't
understand this. The Red Sox had Priester, they
let him go for basically nothinglike a draft pick, like a
compensation pick. And now look, look what he's
doing with Milwaukee. You can tell him, a disgruntled
(10:19):
Red Sox fan, why did you trade this guy away?
You didn't even let him have a single start to prove he's he's
decent. But anyway, he's 8 and two 3.33
ERA this year. Mariners, meanwhile, going with
the veteran righty Luis Castillo.
Remember he was with the Reds for a while, seven and five,
3.21 ERA. And what do we see across the
market for this one? This one's kind of an
(10:39):
interesting because the line opens Seattle -130 and basically
Milwaukee around a + 110 Rd. dog.
And earlier this morning you gota bunch of 5050 line move steam
hit Seattle. So basically, the public is down
the middle 5050, but the Mariners went up from -130 up to
-135 So that would match as, of course, a 5050 line move.
(11:03):
You know, theoretically in a vacuum, tickets are split right
down the middle. You would assume no reason to
adjust the price because odds makers have balanced action both
sides. So that line move towards
Seattle pull the smart money wasgoing with the Mariners kind of
quietly. I also really like the Mariners
bet splits, 45% of bets, but 69%of dollars at circa.
(11:24):
It's really good low bets, higher dollar split.
And then also that system sweet spot home favorites -130 to -150
playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous year.
That system is 60 and 3762 percent, 7% ROI.
You also have a favorite correlative betting favorite low
total told this one is 7 1/2 juice down like and someone's
(11:45):
even going down to seven. So if your amount of expected
run score more likely to come from quote UN quote, that better
team. And I really want to back
Castillo. He's been really good in July.
He's made, knock on wood, three starts, 1.45 ERA, only giving up
three runs and 18.2 innings pitched.
Got Mariners, meanwhile, 5 and Oin his last five starts and on
the road, 4.74 ERA at home for Castillo, 2 point O, 6 ERA.
(12:11):
So all that being said, I'm like, hey, let's fire on
Seattle. I got him at -134 a lot of the
market was -135 even -140 and then as I'm starting the pod, I
noticed my odds logic live odds page.
The line went down a little bit.Seattle fell down to -125 and
I'm like, go what's going on? I go to look and I go to what I
(12:31):
would argue is a great site. You should bookmark Underdog
MLB. They do a really good job at
putting out the starting lineups.
And I'm saying, OK, why did Seattle drop out of nowhere -135
down to -125 well, guess what? The big dumper or the big
dumpster big dumper, whatever they call him, Cal Raleigh, the
Home Run Derby king, he is not in the starting lineup.
(12:53):
So the reason why Seattle fell $0.10 is not quote UN quote
smart money hitting Milwaukee. It's an adjustment with Cal
Raleigh no longer in the lineup.So in a way it's like, damn, you
know you don't have one of the better players for Seattle.
But in another situation, you know, you're still having a good
bet split. You're still having a favorite
low total. And Long story short, one of the
(13:16):
T-shirts or sweatshirts, hoodiesyou can buy on the All Systems
Go merch store is a hoodie that says dance with the one who
brung you. So I know my guy Devin Fernandez
down in Florida knows this one and my guy Darush, of course.
But I'm going to dance with the one who brung me.
I don't love that. Cal Rally is out.
You know, nothing we can expect,you know, that came out of the
(13:37):
blue. It happens.
Maybe he'll pinch it later. Maybe they don't need him.
Hopefully they'll win anyway. But I'm sticking with Seattle.
I'm not buying out. I'm not betting Milwaukee.
I'm just staying with the Mariners in this one.
So again, kind of an annoying break, No Cal Rally, but that is
why the line dropped. But I'm sticking with Seattle.
I got a bad -134 if you do want to play Seattle, they're still
(14:00):
kind of contrarian at Circa and 5050 and favorite, low total and
interleague favorite. It's just the line has dipped a
bit without Raleigh. So I'm sticking with Seattle
-134 if you are uncomfortable now playing Seattle without
Raleigh, I understand, but I am.I'm Dan, so the one who brung
me. I'm on the Mariners -134 last
(14:21):
bit of the night. They came through for us last
night. Can they do it again tonight?
Well, I'm hoping so. 6:40 PM Eastern Time.
Let's go right back to Clevelandwhere the Guardians are hosting
the Baltimore Orioles. Now.
Going into it, we got the Guards50 and 50 back up to 500.
They've taken the first two games in this four-game series.
They won the opener 4:50 as a -145 home favorite.
(14:45):
They won again last night, six to three, which was great for
us. Part of our sweep as a -, 160
home favorite. So pitching match up for
tonight, we got Zach Aflan goingfor the O's.
Orioles are now 44 and 56 on theyear.
Aflan is 6 and five but has a 5.95 ERA.
We're on him in here in a second.
(15:06):
Guardians, meanwhile, going withthe Ready Slade, Sesame or
Sesone. He was part of that Diamondbacks
trade for Josh Naylor. I believe he's five and four,
3.8 for ERA. So what do we see across the
market? Well, nothing but steam toward
the guards Going guardians here,guys.
Guardians open this game around 8 -, 120 short home favorite
(15:27):
Baltimore around a + 100 row dog.
And we've seen Cleveland get steamed up -120 now up to -130
so about $0.10 of movement in favor of the guards.
Pretty good bet splits on the guardians.
If we look at DraftKings, Cleveland's getting 72% of money
line bets, but 80% of money linedollars.
At Circa Cleveland's getting 63%of money line bets, 74% of money
(15:51):
line dollars, so low bets, higher dollar splits on lighting
up on Cleveland at both the national public DraftKings book
as well as the sharp desert wiseguy Circa sports book.
And we do have quite a few system matches.
I got 5 lit up on Cleveland, so let's run through a few of them.
Home favorites of the line move in their favor who also made the
playoffs the previous year. Those teams are two O 4 and one
(16:13):
O 766% four percent ROI. Non division home favorites off
a win with Steam $0.05 or more, 149 and 7866% also a 4% ROI.
And then we look at home favorites who made the playoffs
the previous year playing an opponent who also made the
playoffs the previous year. Those teams are 94 and 5663
(16:35):
percent 5% ROI. Sweet spot Home favorites -130
to -150 playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous
year. 60 and 3762% with a 7% ROI.
Guardians in particular in the spot have done well as a home
favorite. They're 15 and 865%, nine
percent ROI. That makes them the 8th best
(16:58):
home chalk favorite in baseball.And a big part of the cap for me
is backing Sesame and fading Eflin because Slade, Sesame or
Sesone again. I don't listen to the game
tonight. Get the correct pronunciation.
He's giving up two earned runs or less, and six of his last
eight starts he's been pretty good, pretty reliable.
Knock on Wood Efflin, by the way, Not only is he coming back
(17:21):
from the injured list, so I'm not sure if he's on a pitch
count or not, but before he wenton the injured list, he had made
5 starts in the month of June. Get this, he had an 8.72 ERA,
gave up 21 earned runs and 21.2 innings pitched.
So this is a guy that, again, coming off an injury, hasn't
pitched well this year. Cleveland's playing pretty hot
(17:42):
right now. I'm hoping that the Guardians
can get to F1 and post another victory at home.
So I got Cleveland -130 pretty much widely available here, but
some good steam and a big systemmatch play here on the
Guardians. So let's go guards.
So 3 pack overall. Let's try to get 2 out of these
three. Each got a winning day.
(18:02):
Cubs, Mariners, Cleveland, Guardians.
So that about does it for episode 321 of the All Systems
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
This is the part of the pod, youknow where we at, where we're at
now we're wrapping things up andwe're starting first by saying
thank you. Thank you to you out there,
whoever you are. I may not know you, but I love
(18:22):
you. I respect you and I appreciate
you for tuning in each day and grinding shark and train plays
with me. If you do enjoy the pod, you
want to let me know you appreciate the insights, Please
would you consider giving the pod a five star review on
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charts. If you want to leave a nice
(18:44):
message under the comment section or review section or
click the follow button or recommend the pod word of mouth
to a friend that also be fantastic.
Next, if you enjoy the style of betting breakdown, you notice we
don't talk parlays, we don't talk about all this team is due
or I really like this team todayfor my own biases without any
data behind it. No, we make bets based on not
(19:06):
gut instinct or bias, but based on line movement that splits
numbers. You can quantify trying to read
the market and picking up on context clues.
If this style of betting has kind of you gotten the bug, you
know, like I got the bug a long time ago.
You see the value in it, you're starting to see the results.
Hopefully it's making you're providing your blueprint to
attack pretty much every sport. If that's the case and you want
(19:29):
to learn more about data-driven betting or you have someone in
your life who could, you know, kind of benefit from some from
some data-driven tips. I would love it if you guys
wanted to go to Amazon.com and then type in the everything
guide to sports betting. It's the first book ever wrote.
Very proud of it, but it's got everything I've learned in the
industry. It's great for beginners or even
(19:49):
intermediate betters, but it really provides the data-driven
blueprint. How lines are set, how and why
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
action, how to go contrarian, how to place a bet in person or
online, how to shop for the bestline, how to set up a bankroll
management plan. It's all included in the
Everything guide to sports betting.
While you're picking up the Everything guide on Amazon, also
(20:10):
don't don't close out the tab oryou know, go to Instagram.
You can do whatever you want, ofcourse, but stay on it.
Stay on not Instagram, stay on Amazon and then type in the NFL
Sharp Betting playbook. It's my new book.
It comes out. I honestly can't believe it.
We got to get a countdown going here.
It's coming out August 12th, really close here, but it's got
(20:33):
really really just everything I've I've learned and kind of
picked up on over the last few years.
And it's all about how to bet the NFL from a data-driven
perspective. So if you want to get a leg up
on your, you know, NFL betting and kind of get ready for the
upcoming season, refresh your memory.
You want to support the pod, youwant to make me and my publisher
happy Triumph books. I'd love for you guys to
(20:54):
pre-order a copy of the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook.
So bring the Everything Guide and the NFL Sharp Betting
Playbook to the sports book. I'll sign them for you.
I'll buy a beer or ginger ale, or truly, we'll get some nachos
and sweat some baseball together.
Sounds pretty good to me. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
and Juice Real yet? Well, if you haven't, what are
you waiting for? You got to go do that right now.
(21:16):
Rhythm fantastic for their AI backed models and predictions
for game bets and player props for WNBA, for MLB.
Pretty soon they're going to have football coming back.
And then of course, we have Rhythm.
Or not Rhythm, but we also have Juice Reel.
I mentioned earlier. But if you want to support the
pod, if you feel like, hopefullyI've been giving you at least $5
(21:37):
worth of insights at each podcast.
So I get literally a dollar's worth of insight each pod.
Hey, this pod's free, but I'm going to pass the hat, the tip
jar. If you want to sign up and
support the pod, I would love for you guys to get the all
systems go best bet picks exclusively and only on the
Juice Reel app. As soon as I bet a game from my
app, it goes right to the Juice Reel page, the ASG podcast page.
(22:00):
Then you can tail follow, do whatever you like.
But again, the pod is free and hopefully you feel like I'm
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again support the pod and get those plays earlier.
Hopefully beat some closing lines by signing up to get the
Juice Reel best bet picks for the all systems go pod.
When you do that, you're also going at the Robo Jackson best
(22:21):
bet picks that that the juice reel model AI model kind of
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mush indicators, the arbitrage plays, the shop for the best
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report card reaction, all available to you when you
download Juice reel. So download juice reel and
(22:41):
download rhythm. Give him a five star review in
the App Store. That'll make my friends Megan
and Ricky Gold very happy. Last but not least, do you have
a live odds page where you heardme talk about it prior to start
the pod? The importance of live scoring
and in game wagering because we got day sweats today, but you
need a live odds page again. I wouldn't be, you know,
(23:02):
promoting this if I didn't, you know, fully understand and
realize and know over the courseof a long period of time how
important a live odds is. Live odds page is to a sports
better, because if you're going to be a dangerous and better
like me, you got to know where did the line open at?
How is it moved? What's the current price shop
for the best price. Pull up the line history.
(23:22):
Identify steam. As soon as the team gets hit,
gets lit up in red. You know, get the live scoring,
the live in game wagering odds. It's all available to you when
you give odds logic a shot. So give you the link before, but
if you want to try it out, 7 dayfree trial, 50% off your first
month, go to oddslogic.com/josh 123 again.
(23:45):
Almost last but not least, do you want to feed the public
sweatshirt? Do you want to dance with the
one who brung your T-shirt? If you want any All Systems Go
swag, it is now available on theAll Systems Go Merch page, but
you can find pinned to the All Systems Go Twitter page.
And if you ever want the link, you can always hit me up at Josh
under score insight. Shoot me Adm.
(24:06):
I'll send you the link. So final two thoughts, of
course, as always, whether I seeyou at the Borgata in Atlantic
City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the
Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield
in my neck of the woods in around Boston, the Nash, of
(24:26):
course, or out in the desert where the true grinders get down
or Billy Walters sends his number runners where the lowest
juice possible is found at the South Point or Sweat and sharp
contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
When you cash a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
you're going to walk up to me. We're going to we're going to
meet up at the sports book. I'll be coming from one end of
the book, you'll be coming from the other.
(24:48):
We'll see each other. We'll high 5, high 5 to the
Borat fans. And you know what?
We'll bust out a broom and do a little, do a little man.
What was he called? Fred Astaire, a little Fred
Astaire dance because hey, we swept the board last night.
So it's always hey, we there aredays we go on O and three when
you go 3 and O. And it's OK to be a little
(25:09):
excited about it because it's not that easy to do, I should
say. But anyway, guys, show me a
Marlins ticket, Guardians ticket, Mariners ticket.
First one's on me, next one's onyou.
We'll post about the book and sweat some MLB plays for today.
As always, guys 3 and OO and three, two and one, one and two.
Whether we're hot or cold, whether we just swept the board
(25:31):
or got swept, we can never get too high when we're hot.
We can never get too low when we're cold.
Remember, it's a tough market tobe consistently.
So when you're when you're down in the dumps and losing an ice
cold snake bit, don't, don't getdown on yourself.
Don't give up. Keep grinding.
You know when you're hot, thingsare going well.
Don't get cocky and think you'regoing to sweep the board every
day forever. Nope, you just got to keep
(25:52):
grinding, staying even keel, making data-driven plays with
your head and not your heart. That's always our goal.
So we can do that, find games that fit our model against the
public, with the house, with thepros, flat bet, avoid parlays
and get that CLV. If we can do that, I'm pretty
confident we're going to be successful sports bettors.
So have a great Wednesday, everybody.
Enjoy your hump day. Let's get some winners on the
(26:14):
diamond. And we right back at it tomorrow
for episode 322 on a Thirsty Thursday edition of the All
Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
Good luck everybody and have a great Wednesday.
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