July 24, 2025 • 25 mins
In Episode 322, Josh dishes out a 3-pack of MLB plays for Thursday night.
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Josh's new book "The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook" comes out on August 12, 2025
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:18):
Hello, and welcome to episode 322 of the All Systems Go sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
Happy Thirsty Thursday, Our workweek rolls on.
(00:39):
Almost coming to a close here, guys.
But we do have today and tomorrow before another big
weekend ahead before we almost unofficially get into football
season, because I was actually looking at the Hall of Fame
Game, which I believe is a week from today, the 31st.
So before, you know, we're goingto NFL and I don't have any
lines up here. I guess I actually do have a
(00:59):
line up here. We have Detroit -1 with a total
of 32 1/2 in the Hall of Fame game hosting or not hosting.
It's a neutral site in Canton, OH, but playing the Chargers.
So typically do like to play those unders.
You do have a good system match with favorites, but again, early
on. But we do have, believe it or
not, odds bet splits popping up for an NFL game.
(01:21):
We do have a lot of that for Week 1 as well.
But just goes to show you football is not that far off.
So get excited. And then also, I was looking at
the college football calendar here and it actually opens looks
like a month from yesterday, the23rd of August.
We got a four pack here of plays.
So we got a lot, a lot to get to.
But you guys know the drill between now and then.
(01:42):
We're not going to just, you know, twiddle our fingers and
just wait and, you know, count, count the clock down and wait
for football. And no, we're going to try to
continue to grind Major League Baseball, which is one of my
favorite things to do because baseball, even though there's
highs and lows, there's ups and downs, it's a long season.
It's a data-driven sport that wecontinue to grind at.
We can slowly chip away and build our bankrolls.
That is obviously the goal once again for today.
(02:04):
Looking toward today might be like Josh, you know, what are
you betting on? There's like no baseball today.
There was one day game. Baltimore beat Cleveland four to
three, but there's only four more games here for tonight.
But I did find there were two plays that I wrote about for a
sharp report for visen.com, and there was one other play that
had some late steam, so that wasa late addition for me.
(02:24):
So overall, we got 3 plays. Of course, you guys know the
drill. Let's try to go 2 and 1.
Eke out a winning day. Now, unfortunately, get back to
her last night. 1 and 2 -. 1.23 units.
Had a nice winter there with theGuardians getting it done.
Cleveland was able to hang on and win three to two at home,
but the Seattle Mariners got blown out 1:50.
(02:44):
And again, it was not good to see Cal Raleigh out of the
lineup and that line really tank.
So maybe just a tough break there with one of the best
players in baseball out. And then the Cubbies, they were
kind of frustrating because if you look yesterday and we got
Cubs -160 -, 170, they close like -180 and end up losing 8 to
4. So beating a closing line,
(03:05):
they're just not getting the results that we want.
So overall, 1 and 2 - 1.23 unitsafter a clean sweep on Tuesday
one and two yesterday, let's seeif we can start a new winning
streak here for tonight. Now before we dive into these
plays, I just wanted to mention real quick, it is a Thursday.
So that means I will be joining my 2 buds Patrick Maher and
Dustin Swedelsen tonight on V Sin Live tonight on SiriusXM.
(03:28):
So we'll be getting into a lot of different topics.
Patrick is actually on vacation,so I'll miss Patrick, but Tom
Byrne is filling in so should bea good time here if you want to
check it out. And always remember I am a
sports betting analyst at V Sin.Very proud author make
appearances there and Beeson is after the men there now quite a
bit, but they're back on SiriusXM if you ever want to get
(03:50):
some insights there as well. But anyway, guys, without
further ado, let's get right back to the one we love, which
is betting on baseball and the dog days of summer.
So 3 pack overall. First play for me guys, let's go
to a 7:45 PM Eastern Time first pitch where the Saint Louis
Cardinals are hosting the San Diego Padres.
Now let's talk bet splits, line movement system matches, and
(04:11):
I'll give you my play for this one.
So going into it, we got the Padres 55 and 47 on the year.
They did, however, just drop twoor three against the Marlins.
They lost yesterday's series finale 3 to 2 as a -145 Rd.
favorite. Similarly, the cards, who are 52
and 51, they just lost two or three against the Rockies.
Yes, the Rockies. They actually got blanked by
(04:32):
Colorado yesterday. 6 nothing asa -, 190 Rd. favorite.
So pitching match up here for tonight.
We got the pods going with the ready you Darvish, who was
injured much of the year making another start here, but he's O
and two six point O 8 ERA on theseason.
Cardinals, meanwhile, going the veteran righty Sonny Gray nine
and four four point O 4 ERA. So this line opened with the
(04:54):
Cardinals listed around a -. 135home favorite San Diego plus
1/15 Rd. Dog.
You might be thinking yourself, hey, you know this is a shot to
grab some plus money San Diego right?
Well, the public is right down the middle.
They don't know what to do San Diego Padres have the better,
better record, one loss record. But Cardinals are at home.
You know, Darvish has kind of a high ERA.
(05:16):
This is one of those 5050 line moves that we talked about.
So basically, it means there's no contrarian value.
The public is undecided. So when you have a 5050 split,
theoretically in a vacuum, a line really should not move at
all because you would assume theodds makers have balanced
action. No need to adjust the price up
or down. However, sometimes you see a
5050 ticket split, yet you see aline move and that really kind
(05:38):
of jumps out to you because again, a line shouldn't move at
all if the actions even. And that's what we do have here.
Even though the public doesn't know what to do with Padres,
Cardinals, looks like wise guys are going Saint Louis because
the Cardinals, even though they're only getting 50% of
tickets at DraftKings, they've really crept up here -135 up to
-150 some shops even as high as -155 even inching toward -160 So
(06:03):
a clear move in favor of the Cardinals.
Now you look at the bet splits at Circa.
This one jumped out to me. Only about 40% of money line
bets, but more than 60% of moneyline dollars are on the
Cardinals. So on Vegas, looks like those
sharper betters are going with the Cardinals.
I do have one system match here that caught my eye.
Both teams are off a loss. Take the team getting at least
(06:25):
$0.10 of steam in their favor. That system is 41 and 23 this
year, 64 percent, 11% ROI. This system is kind of on the
edge because technically, if youlook at Sweet Spot Home
favorites -130 to -150. Like right now, you can still
get Saint Louis -150 at FanDuel.But again, other books are
closer to -155. Technically, if you get the 150,
(06:47):
you would match this system Sweet Spot.
Home favorites -130 to -150 playing an opponent who made the
playoffs the previous year. That system is 61 and 3862% with
a 7% ROI. Now, if we look at the total, it
is a relatively low total of 8. So correlative betting favorite,
low total. If your amount of expected run
scored, more likely to come fromquote UN quote that better team.
(07:09):
And I'm going to bank on hopefully Saint Louis getting
back on track at home. Hopefully their offense wakes up
and gets to Darvish. They do have the better bats
overall this season. They're hitting 252 as a team,
100 home runs, 461 runs scored. Pods are hitting hitting only
245 with 86 homers and 407 runs scored.
We also have two right handers on the bump and Saint Louis has
(07:31):
been better against righty's. They're hitting 2:59.
That's fourth best in baseball. San Diego is only hitting 245
against righty's. That ranks 19th.
Sonny Gray ageless wonder here. Hope he pitches a gem tonight.
But he has been good at home. Six and one 2.84 ERA at home
this year and just classic home Rd. splits.
St. Louis has been pretty good at
(07:52):
Busch Stadium. They're 29 and 20 at home.
Padres 24 and 29 on the road. So again, we got the public
right down the middle. Doesn't know what to do, but we
got the line move. The Circa bet split couple
system matches, home Rd. splits,better offense, all lighting up
on Saint Louis. So I'm taking a shot on the
Saint Louis Cardinals. Again, shop around.
(08:12):
I got cards -150 that's a FanDuel.
But again, some books are closerto -155 even -160 but let's go
birds. Next step for you, the Athletics
visiting the Houston Astros. Now, this is kind of a late
edition for me. I'll kind of give you the
breakdown for this one. It's a game that I noticed some
(08:34):
late afternoon steam on. So coming into it start of a new
series, the Athletics are 42 and62 on the year.
They just got swept by the TexasRangers on the road.
They've lost four straight on the opposite Astros, 60 and 42
on the year. They just swept Arizona and
they've won four straights. We got one team kind of trending
downward the the A's one team trending upward.
(08:56):
The Houston Astros pitching matchup for this one.
We got Luis Severino, the rightygoing for the Athletics.
He's 3:00 and 11:00 5.1 OERA. He'll be opposed by Jason
Alexander. No, not not George from
Seinfeld, but the other Jason Alexander righty, he's one and O
with an 8.4 OERA. And I believe, I'm not sure if
(09:16):
he's a starter or the opener, but he hasn't pitched a ton this
year, but he will get the start for the Astros.
Now, I told you this was kind ofa late play for me because we
basically opened most shops Houston around a -, 125
favorite, and they pretty much stayed -125 all afternoon.
And then I noticed around 2:00, three o'clock, they absolutely
(09:37):
got steamed pretty heavy here. Up to now around -140 -, 145 S
late movement was notable to me.There might have even been a
pitching change because I thought it might have been
Brandon Walter. Then switched to Alexander and
you saw that line move further toward Houston.
But either way, you're getting late movement hitting Houston.
So that really jumped out to me.Aside from that line move,
(09:59):
again, Astros just -125 all day,then late afternoon, they've
gotten steamed up -140 -. 145 really good bet splits on the
Astros at DraftKings. They're getting 78% of tickets,
but 86% of dollars. And then over at circa 74% of
tickets, 98% of dollars. So we got late steam, line move,
(10:22):
good bet splits, all lighting uphere in Houston.
I have 3 betting system matches on the Astros.
So I have one home favorites offa win with a winning record who
made the postseason the previousyear.
That is 137 and 7565% with around a 2% ROI.
Home favorites made the postseason the previous year
with a line move in their favor.Those teams are two O 6 and one
(10:44):
O 866 percent, 4% ROI. And then game one of a new
series, you're favored with a line move in your direction
against an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous year.
I know it's kind of a mouthful, but that is 60 and 29 this year,
67% with a 5% ROI. So all those systems are
lighting up here on the Astros. You look at Houston, they hit
(11:07):
better at home. They're hitting 263.
Is that Minute Maid Park anymore?
What do they call that? It's let me just pull that up.
Is it still Minute Maid? Yeah, it is.
But anyway, they're hitting 263 at home, 6th best home batting
average on the road. The A's are only hitting 235.
That ranks 20th in baseball. Houston overall is 33 and 19 at
(11:27):
home. A's only 22 and 31 on the road.
And then if this, you know, I mean, hopefully Houston, their
bats really light up. Severino, he's been really bad
this year. And you kind of feel for the A's
because they spent no money. Then they signed this guy to a
big deal and he's been terrible.But anyway, I'm hoping he's
terrible again tonight. But if this becomes a bullpen
game, hopefully that is a big benefit to the Strohs because
(11:49):
the Astros bullpen 3.3 O ERA, 4th best in baseball, the A's
bullpen second worst in baseball, 5.48 ERA.
So you had it all up here guys. Again, if you ask me at noon,
did I like Houston? Not really.
The line never moved, but late steam, good system matches, good
bat splits, home Rd. bullpen, better bats at home.
(12:12):
I'm I'm taking Houston here. So this is kind of a late
addition for me, but I was able to get Houston -138 at FanDuel
again. Shop around.
Other books -140 -, 145 last bitof the night, Let's go to the
West Coast, 9:38 PM Eastern Time, first pitch.
We have the LA Angels hosting the Seattle Mariners now going
(12:33):
into this one, the Mariners 54 and 48.
Remember, let us down last night, drop two or three against
the Brewers, losing 10 to 2 yesterday as a -115 home
favorite. You know the Angels 49 and 53,
they're kind of playing pretty well all year, but they did just
get swept by the Mets. They lost six to three yesterday
as a + 150 Rd. dog. So tonight, series opener, the
(12:56):
Mariners are going with the ready Logan Evans.
He's three and three with a 3.81ERA.
Meanwhile, the Halos are going with the lefty.
You say Kikuchi four and six. One loss record doesn't seem
great, but a 3.13 ERA has pitched pretty well.
He's been a pretty good free agent signing by the Angels.
Now what have you seen across the market?
Will this game opened LA around a -, 130 home favorite Seattle
(13:18):
around a + 110 Rd. dog and the public is saying the wrong team
is favored because Seattle's gota better one loss record and
they're above 500. LA is below 500.
LA has struggled. So you're getting nearly 60% of
money line tickets at DraftKingstaking Seattle and plus money.
However, even though the public's on Seattle, this line
(13:39):
hasn't fallen down. You know where LA is gone from
-130 down to -120 -? 115 trending toward a pick them.
No, it's gone the other way. We've actually seen LA become
more of a favorite, even though the public's on Seattle.
So you know what that is. RLM fade the trendy dog.
I've seen Los Angeles creep up -130 now up to -150 some shops
(14:02):
even as high as -155 I jumped onLA -148 at FanDuel.
If you're looking for the best price, but at Circa this really
caught my eye. The Angels are only getting 27%
of bets, 27% but 98% of dollars out in Vegas.
So it tells me a lot of big smart money loading up on the
Angels kind of taking that fishyplay at home.
(14:25):
If you do look at one system match really like this would
also match on Saint Louis, but both off a loss.
Take that team getting $0.10 or more.
Remember that system, 41 and 2364 percent, 11% ROI.
Now I do want to back Kikuchi. He's been really good at home.
Knock on wood, hope he can stymie the bats of Seattle, but
he's four and one with a 1.98 ERA at home this year.
(14:48):
Meanwhile, Evans, he's got a 5 point O2 ERA in three July
starts, giving up eight runs and14.1 innings pitched, but also
on the road he's just one and three with a 5 point O 6 ERA.
So hopefully the bats of LA can get to Evans here.
And then this is kind of anotherangle that I just noticed.
Sometimes when you look at when I'm looking at a kind of
supplementary date, I just go tothe ESPN breakdown of the game
(15:11):
and they usually give you like day or night, any of my Kid Cudi
fans out there day or night anyway, Mr. Solo Dolo.
But I did notice in night games the Angels are 39 and 31.
The Mariners in night games only30 and 33.
So it's not the only reason about it.
But hey, you know, Angels hopefully an edge here under the
lights at home. The Long story short public
(15:33):
Seattle Lions going to LA. This smells like a fade.
The trendy dog reverse line moveon the Angels.
I'm going Halos. Let's hope some Angels in the
outfield are are cheering us on tonight.
I got LA at -148 at FanDuel again.
Shop around some books closer to-150 -, 155 S Cardinals, Astros,
(15:54):
Angels. Can we find a way to get 2 out
of 3 eek out of winning day? Of course, that is the goal.
So that about does it for episode 322 of the all systems
go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
start first by saying thank you.Thank you for taking the time
out of your day and the dog daysof summer.
(16:15):
I know it's easy to, you know, get get the football season and
you know, get your full attention, but there's a lot of
things going on this summer. I've had a busy summer.
I'll give you a little story. Yesterday, actually, the in laws
moved in to New Hampshire and mysister-in-law needed a bed for
her daughter, my niece in law orniece.
And we had to drive all the way to Swampscott to pick up this
(16:38):
bed, which was like a bunk bed and it had like pull out drawers
and all this stuff, yadda, yadda.
It was an hour to drive there. We get there, it was a Facebook
marketplace deal. It's not disassembled at all.
The whole thing is fully assembled.
The guy said he's like, oh, comeand take it.
Yeah. Oh, well, could you tell me it
was wasn't broken down yet. So we spent like an hour on, you
know, wrenches, screwdrivers, disassemble the whole thing,
(17:02):
packed it in the car, drove it back to New Hampshire.
But I did a good deed for my sister-in-law, so I was happy
about that. But anyway, that's the kind of
stuff that you got to do in the summer.
So now you're having a busy summer, you get a lot going on.
But the fact you tune into the pod, grind these plays with me,
it really does mean a lot to me and I appreciate it.
But if you do enjoy the pod, youwant to let me know you like the
(17:22):
insights. Please could you give this
podcast a five star review on Spotify or iTunes?
Would go a long way to helping us to continue to grow the pod.
If you want to leave a nice comment under the review
section. Hey, I like the insights.
I value the insights on a daily basis.
I'll take that. If you want to click the follow
button, get alerted as soon as the pod drops each day.
Or if you would like to recommend the pod to a friend,
(17:44):
that would also very much be appreciated.
Next, if you enjoy the style of betting, notice how we don't
talk about what we think will happen tonight, what we hope,
what we want or I I feel like this.
No, no, no ain't feelings and emotions.
It's data because I learned a long time ago you bet with
feelings and emotions, you're going to be a losing better.
You got to trust the market follow the smart money.
(18:05):
That's really the key here when it comes to data-driven betting.
But if you want to learn more about data-driven betting, or
maybe you know someone in your life who could use some
data-driven tips, I would love for you guys to go to Amazon.com
and type in the Everything Guideto Sports Betting.
It's the first book ever wrote. It's got everything I've learned
in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
(18:26):
action, how to place the bet in person or online, how to shop
for the best line, how to set upa bankroll management plan,
chapters on all the major sports.
It's all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
Betting. And again, it's for brand new
betters, but also intermediate betters.
A lot of great tips there. Next, if you're staying on the
Amazon.com site page, whatever, then you got to type in the NFL
(18:49):
Sharp betting playbook because my new book, I can't believe it
guys, it comes out August 12th. We are two weeks and what let me
get this right, two weeks and 12345 days away.
So cannot believe that it's almost here.
But if you'd like to get a leg up on your NFL handicapping, if
you'd like to check out the newest project that I've spent
(19:11):
the last three years working on,if you want to support the pod,
it would make me happy, make my publisher triumph books happy.
If you would be interested in pre ordering a copy of the NFL
sharp betting playback, I think you're going to like it.
How? But bring the sharp betting
playbook, bring the everything guide to the sports book.
I'll sign them for you. I'll buy a beer or ginger ale.
We'll get some nachos and sweat some baseball together tonight.
(19:34):
Next, have you downloaded Rhythmand Juice Reel yet?
My two favorite sports betting apps.
If you haven't done it, you got to get on that because they are
great additions to your data-driven sports betting tool
case. Rhythm obviously does a great
job of powering this podcast, providing us AI backed models
and predictions for game bets and player props.
Right now you have MLB and WNBA,but I did get an e-mail that
(19:55):
there's going to be some new power rating or sorry power
trends, which started with props, but coming out for game
models. So I'm excited to see that as
Rhythm continues to innovate andget better and sharper by the by
the minute. And then also go download Juice
Reel. This is the part of the pod
where I'm going to pass the hat.If you like listening to this
pod, remember it's free. It cost you nothing.
(20:17):
But if you want to support the podcast, let me know you
appreciate the insights. I would love for you guys to
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As soon as I bet a game, it goesright to my Juice Reel profile.
ASG under Score podcast. You can get those plays for
$4.99 a week. Again, 5 bucks cup of coffee.
(20:40):
Yeah, a cup of coffee. Maybe less even than that.
If again, you're like my wife and go to Starbucks and a
Starbucks coffee is like $7.00. And I don't even understand
Venti double shot. I just go to Dunks.
You know what my Dunks order is?Medium French vanilla iced
coffee, skim milk, 2 Splenda. Boom, done, done with it.
(21:01):
Make sure you get the rewards too because those come in handy.
But anyway, $4.99 a week, you'llget those plays, support the
pod. You can tail fade, do what you
like, but you'll get them a little bit earlier, earlier in
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Also, you're going to get the Robo Jackson best bet picks, the
sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays.
Shop for the best sign features.You have Juice Reel as a great
(21:22):
app for a lot of different reasons.
So download Juice Reel, downloadrhythm.
They'll be off and running making sharp bets left and
right. Do you have a live odds page?
If you don't, you need one because you got to know is the
data-driven better? What is the market doing?
What numbers are moving? You got to know every game
available to you to bet that day.
The start times, the live scoring, the in game wagering
(21:43):
odds, the opening number, the current numbers.
Quickly identify which directionthe line is moving.
Pull up the line history, identify steam.
You know, I was looking at the My Odds Logic live odds page and
I saw Houston get lit up in the whole column or row, I should
say, got lit up on the Houston tab.
I saw them go from -125 up to -145 told me big money was
(22:05):
coming in on Houston. So that's just another way to
hopefully help you make smarter bets using odds logic.
So I'd love for you guys to giveodds logic a shot whether you
need a live odds page or you have 1:00 and it's free, but
it's slow and it doesn't give you a lot of books and you have
no freaking clue. They give you bets.
What's in like, where are these coming from?
They, they, they don't tell you.Of course they'll say, look,
(22:27):
that's our proprietary information.
Well, where is it coming from? You don't know.
Odd logic has got you covered. It is a great opportunity to
test it out now before football returns because you definitely
need it for football. But you can give it a shot. 7
day free trial and 50% off your first month of service.
Just go to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
(22:50):
So that about does it for episode 2/3/22 of y'all Systems
Go Sports betting pod powered byRhythm.
As always, I'm leaving with two final thoughts.
One, whether I see you at the Borgata and in Atlantic City,
Twin River in Rhode Island, Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown in Connecticut, at the Encore in
Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino, MGM Springfield.
(23:10):
Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
down. Or Billy Walter sends his number
runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the South
Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool when you catch a
big ticket at Circa. Or maybe you're going to walk up
to me, Mariners, Cubs, you're dead to me.
At least show me a Guard Guardians ticket.
It's good seeing the Guardians come through.
First one's on me, next one's onyou.
(23:32):
We'll post about the book and sweat some more baseball here
for tonight. So as always, guys 1 and 2, two
and one, O and three, three and O.
Never get too high when we're doing well, never get too low
when we're grinding and struggling.
We just stick with it. Even keeled, staying true to the
model. And again, making bets with our
head, not our heart. And I know it's like kind of
(23:52):
cliche, but it's true. We're betting based on what the
market is telling us. Will every market move when?
No, because betting is unpredictable.
It's hard. It's a gamble in the end.
But if we can consistently make smart data-driven picks, we're
going to come out on top. So those data-driven picks, you,
you may know by now, go something like this, games that
fit our model against the publicwith the house, with the pros,
(24:12):
flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
If we can do that again, I thinkwe're going to make this a
profitable hobby that turns intoan investment, which is the
goal. But anyway, guys, have a great
Thirsty Thursday. I will see you guys 8:00 tonight
on SiriusXM be some prime time. So if you want to tune in, I'll
see you there. But if not, I'll see you right
(24:32):
back tomorrow on a big Friday edition episode 323 of the All
Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
Good luck everybody, and have a great Thirsty Thursday.
Hello, and welcome to episode 322 of the All Systems Go sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
Happy Thirsty Thursday, Our workweek rolls on.
(00:39):
Almost coming to a close here, guys.
But we do have today and tomorrow before another big
weekend ahead before we almost unofficially get into football
season, because I was actually looking at the Hall of Fame
Game, which I believe is a week from today, the 31st.
So before, you know, we're goingto NFL and I don't have any
lines up here. I guess I actually do have a
(00:59):
line up here. We have Detroit -1 with a total
of 32 1/2 in the Hall of Fame game hosting or not hosting.
It's a neutral site in Canton, OH, but playing the Chargers.
So typically do like to play those unders.
You do have a good system match with favorites, but again, early
on. But we do have, believe it or
not, odds bet splits popping up for an NFL game.
(01:21):
We do have a lot of that for Week 1 as well.
But just goes to show you football is not that far off.
So get excited. And then also, I was looking at
the college football calendar here and it actually opens looks
like a month from yesterday, the23rd of August.
We got a four pack here of plays.
So we got a lot, a lot to get to.
But you guys know the drill between now and then.
(01:42):
We're not going to just, you know, twiddle our fingers and
just wait and, you know, count, count the clock down and wait
for football. And no, we're going to try to
continue to grind Major League Baseball, which is one of my
favorite things to do because baseball, even though there's
highs and lows, there's ups and downs, it's a long season.
It's a data-driven sport that wecontinue to grind at.
We can slowly chip away and build our bankrolls.
That is obviously the goal once again for today.
(02:04):
Looking toward today might be like Josh, you know, what are
you betting on? There's like no baseball today.
There was one day game. Baltimore beat Cleveland four to
three, but there's only four more games here for tonight.
But I did find there were two plays that I wrote about for a
sharp report for visen.com, and there was one other play that
had some late steam, so that wasa late addition for me.
(02:24):
So overall, we got 3 plays. Of course, you guys know the
drill. Let's try to go 2 and 1.
Eke out a winning day. Now, unfortunately, get back to
her last night. 1 and 2 -. 1.23 units.
Had a nice winter there with theGuardians getting it done.
Cleveland was able to hang on and win three to two at home,
but the Seattle Mariners got blown out 1:50.
(02:44):
And again, it was not good to see Cal Raleigh out of the
lineup and that line really tank.
So maybe just a tough break there with one of the best
players in baseball out. And then the Cubbies, they were
kind of frustrating because if you look yesterday and we got
Cubs -160 -, 170, they close like -180 and end up losing 8 to
4. So beating a closing line,
(03:05):
they're just not getting the results that we want.
So overall, 1 and 2 - 1.23 unitsafter a clean sweep on Tuesday
one and two yesterday, let's seeif we can start a new winning
streak here for tonight. Now before we dive into these
plays, I just wanted to mention real quick, it is a Thursday.
So that means I will be joining my 2 buds Patrick Maher and
Dustin Swedelsen tonight on V Sin Live tonight on SiriusXM.
(03:28):
So we'll be getting into a lot of different topics.
Patrick is actually on vacation,so I'll miss Patrick, but Tom
Byrne is filling in so should bea good time here if you want to
check it out. And always remember I am a
sports betting analyst at V Sin.Very proud author make
appearances there and Beeson is after the men there now quite a
bit, but they're back on SiriusXM if you ever want to get
(03:50):
some insights there as well. But anyway, guys, without
further ado, let's get right back to the one we love, which
is betting on baseball and the dog days of summer.
So 3 pack overall. First play for me guys, let's go
to a 7:45 PM Eastern Time first pitch where the Saint Louis
Cardinals are hosting the San Diego Padres.
Now let's talk bet splits, line movement system matches, and
(04:11):
I'll give you my play for this one.
So going into it, we got the Padres 55 and 47 on the year.
They did, however, just drop twoor three against the Marlins.
They lost yesterday's series finale 3 to 2 as a -145 Rd.
favorite. Similarly, the cards, who are 52
and 51, they just lost two or three against the Rockies.
Yes, the Rockies. They actually got blanked by
(04:32):
Colorado yesterday. 6 nothing asa -, 190 Rd. favorite.
So pitching match up here for tonight.
We got the pods going with the ready you Darvish, who was
injured much of the year making another start here, but he's O
and two six point O 8 ERA on theseason.
Cardinals, meanwhile, going the veteran righty Sonny Gray nine
and four four point O 4 ERA. So this line opened with the
(04:54):
Cardinals listed around a -. 135home favorite San Diego plus
1/15 Rd. Dog.
You might be thinking yourself, hey, you know this is a shot to
grab some plus money San Diego right?
Well, the public is right down the middle.
They don't know what to do San Diego Padres have the better,
better record, one loss record. But Cardinals are at home.
You know, Darvish has kind of a high ERA.
(05:16):
This is one of those 5050 line moves that we talked about.
So basically, it means there's no contrarian value.
The public is undecided. So when you have a 5050 split,
theoretically in a vacuum, a line really should not move at
all because you would assume theodds makers have balanced
action. No need to adjust the price up
or down. However, sometimes you see a
5050 ticket split, yet you see aline move and that really kind
(05:38):
of jumps out to you because again, a line shouldn't move at
all if the actions even. And that's what we do have here.
Even though the public doesn't know what to do with Padres,
Cardinals, looks like wise guys are going Saint Louis because
the Cardinals, even though they're only getting 50% of
tickets at DraftKings, they've really crept up here -135 up to
-150 some shops even as high as -155 even inching toward -160 So
(06:03):
a clear move in favor of the Cardinals.
Now you look at the bet splits at Circa.
This one jumped out to me. Only about 40% of money line
bets, but more than 60% of moneyline dollars are on the
Cardinals. So on Vegas, looks like those
sharper betters are going with the Cardinals.
I do have one system match here that caught my eye.
Both teams are off a loss. Take the team getting at least
(06:25):
$0.10 of steam in their favor. That system is 41 and 23 this
year, 64 percent, 11% ROI. This system is kind of on the
edge because technically, if youlook at Sweet Spot Home
favorites -130 to -150. Like right now, you can still
get Saint Louis -150 at FanDuel.But again, other books are
closer to -155. Technically, if you get the 150,
(06:47):
you would match this system Sweet Spot.
Home favorites -130 to -150 playing an opponent who made the
playoffs the previous year. That system is 61 and 3862% with
a 7% ROI. Now, if we look at the total, it
is a relatively low total of 8. So correlative betting favorite,
low total. If your amount of expected run
scored, more likely to come fromquote UN quote that better team.
(07:09):
And I'm going to bank on hopefully Saint Louis getting
back on track at home. Hopefully their offense wakes up
and gets to Darvish. They do have the better bats
overall this season. They're hitting 252 as a team,
100 home runs, 461 runs scored. Pods are hitting hitting only
245 with 86 homers and 407 runs scored.
We also have two right handers on the bump and Saint Louis has
(07:31):
been better against righty's. They're hitting 2:59.
That's fourth best in baseball. San Diego is only hitting 245
against righty's. That ranks 19th.
Sonny Gray ageless wonder here. Hope he pitches a gem tonight.
But he has been good at home. Six and one 2.84 ERA at home
this year and just classic home Rd. splits.
St. Louis has been pretty good at
(07:52):
Busch Stadium. They're 29 and 20 at home.
Padres 24 and 29 on the road. So again, we got the public
right down the middle. Doesn't know what to do, but we
got the line move. The Circa bet split couple
system matches, home Rd. splits,better offense, all lighting up
on Saint Louis. So I'm taking a shot on the
Saint Louis Cardinals. Again, shop around.
(08:12):
I got cards -150 that's a FanDuel.
But again, some books are closerto -155 even -160 but let's go
birds. Next step for you, the Athletics
visiting the Houston Astros. Now, this is kind of a late
edition for me. I'll kind of give you the
breakdown for this one. It's a game that I noticed some
(08:34):
late afternoon steam on. So coming into it start of a new
series, the Athletics are 42 and62 on the year.
They just got swept by the TexasRangers on the road.
They've lost four straight on the opposite Astros, 60 and 42
on the year. They just swept Arizona and
they've won four straights. We got one team kind of trending
downward the the A's one team trending upward.
(08:56):
The Houston Astros pitching matchup for this one.
We got Luis Severino, the rightygoing for the Athletics.
He's 3:00 and 11:00 5.1 OERA. He'll be opposed by Jason
Alexander. No, not not George from
Seinfeld, but the other Jason Alexander righty, he's one and O
with an 8.4 OERA. And I believe, I'm not sure if
(09:16):
he's a starter or the opener, but he hasn't pitched a ton this
year, but he will get the start for the Astros.
Now, I told you this was kind ofa late play for me because we
basically opened most shops Houston around a -, 125
favorite, and they pretty much stayed -125 all afternoon.
And then I noticed around 2:00, three o'clock, they absolutely
(09:37):
got steamed pretty heavy here. Up to now around -140 -, 145 S
late movement was notable to me.There might have even been a
pitching change because I thought it might have been
Brandon Walter. Then switched to Alexander and
you saw that line move further toward Houston.
But either way, you're getting late movement hitting Houston.
So that really jumped out to me.Aside from that line move,
(09:59):
again, Astros just -125 all day,then late afternoon, they've
gotten steamed up -140 -. 145 really good bet splits on the
Astros at DraftKings. They're getting 78% of tickets,
but 86% of dollars. And then over at circa 74% of
tickets, 98% of dollars. So we got late steam, line move,
(10:22):
good bet splits, all lighting uphere in Houston.
I have 3 betting system matches on the Astros.
So I have one home favorites offa win with a winning record who
made the postseason the previousyear.
That is 137 and 7565% with around a 2% ROI.
Home favorites made the postseason the previous year
with a line move in their favor.Those teams are two O 6 and one
(10:44):
O 866 percent, 4% ROI. And then game one of a new
series, you're favored with a line move in your direction
against an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous year.
I know it's kind of a mouthful, but that is 60 and 29 this year,
67% with a 5% ROI. So all those systems are
lighting up here on the Astros. You look at Houston, they hit
(11:07):
better at home. They're hitting 263.
Is that Minute Maid Park anymore?
What do they call that? It's let me just pull that up.
Is it still Minute Maid? Yeah, it is.
But anyway, they're hitting 263 at home, 6th best home batting
average on the road. The A's are only hitting 235.
That ranks 20th in baseball. Houston overall is 33 and 19 at
(11:27):
home. A's only 22 and 31 on the road.
And then if this, you know, I mean, hopefully Houston, their
bats really light up. Severino, he's been really bad
this year. And you kind of feel for the A's
because they spent no money. Then they signed this guy to a
big deal and he's been terrible.But anyway, I'm hoping he's
terrible again tonight. But if this becomes a bullpen
game, hopefully that is a big benefit to the Strohs because
(11:49):
the Astros bullpen 3.3 O ERA, 4th best in baseball, the A's
bullpen second worst in baseball, 5.48 ERA.
So you had it all up here guys. Again, if you ask me at noon,
did I like Houston? Not really.
The line never moved, but late steam, good system matches, good
bat splits, home Rd. bullpen, better bats at home.
(12:12):
I'm I'm taking Houston here. So this is kind of a late
addition for me, but I was able to get Houston -138 at FanDuel
again. Shop around.
Other books -140 -, 145 last bitof the night, Let's go to the
West Coast, 9:38 PM Eastern Time, first pitch.
We have the LA Angels hosting the Seattle Mariners now going
(12:33):
into this one, the Mariners 54 and 48.
Remember, let us down last night, drop two or three against
the Brewers, losing 10 to 2 yesterday as a -115 home
favorite. You know the Angels 49 and 53,
they're kind of playing pretty well all year, but they did just
get swept by the Mets. They lost six to three yesterday
as a + 150 Rd. dog. So tonight, series opener, the
(12:56):
Mariners are going with the ready Logan Evans.
He's three and three with a 3.81ERA.
Meanwhile, the Halos are going with the lefty.
You say Kikuchi four and six. One loss record doesn't seem
great, but a 3.13 ERA has pitched pretty well.
He's been a pretty good free agent signing by the Angels.
Now what have you seen across the market?
Will this game opened LA around a -, 130 home favorite Seattle
(13:18):
around a + 110 Rd. dog and the public is saying the wrong team
is favored because Seattle's gota better one loss record and
they're above 500. LA is below 500.
LA has struggled. So you're getting nearly 60% of
money line tickets at DraftKingstaking Seattle and plus money.
However, even though the public's on Seattle, this line
(13:39):
hasn't fallen down. You know where LA is gone from
-130 down to -120 -? 115 trending toward a pick them.
No, it's gone the other way. We've actually seen LA become
more of a favorite, even though the public's on Seattle.
So you know what that is. RLM fade the trendy dog.
I've seen Los Angeles creep up -130 now up to -150 some shops
(14:02):
even as high as -155 I jumped onLA -148 at FanDuel.
If you're looking for the best price, but at Circa this really
caught my eye. The Angels are only getting 27%
of bets, 27% but 98% of dollars out in Vegas.
So it tells me a lot of big smart money loading up on the
Angels kind of taking that fishyplay at home.
(14:25):
If you do look at one system match really like this would
also match on Saint Louis, but both off a loss.
Take that team getting $0.10 or more.
Remember that system, 41 and 2364 percent, 11% ROI.
Now I do want to back Kikuchi. He's been really good at home.
Knock on wood, hope he can stymie the bats of Seattle, but
he's four and one with a 1.98 ERA at home this year.
(14:48):
Meanwhile, Evans, he's got a 5 point O2 ERA in three July
starts, giving up eight runs and14.1 innings pitched, but also
on the road he's just one and three with a 5 point O 6 ERA.
So hopefully the bats of LA can get to Evans here.
And then this is kind of anotherangle that I just noticed.
Sometimes when you look at when I'm looking at a kind of
supplementary date, I just go tothe ESPN breakdown of the game
(15:11):
and they usually give you like day or night, any of my Kid Cudi
fans out there day or night anyway, Mr. Solo Dolo.
But I did notice in night games the Angels are 39 and 31.
The Mariners in night games only30 and 33.
So it's not the only reason about it.
But hey, you know, Angels hopefully an edge here under the
lights at home. The Long story short public
(15:33):
Seattle Lions going to LA. This smells like a fade.
The trendy dog reverse line moveon the Angels.
I'm going Halos. Let's hope some Angels in the
outfield are are cheering us on tonight.
I got LA at -148 at FanDuel again.
Shop around some books closer to-150 -, 155 S Cardinals, Astros,
(15:54):
Angels. Can we find a way to get 2 out
of 3 eek out of winning day? Of course, that is the goal.
So that about does it for episode 322 of the all systems
go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
start first by saying thank you.Thank you for taking the time
out of your day and the dog daysof summer.
(16:15):
I know it's easy to, you know, get get the football season and
you know, get your full attention, but there's a lot of
things going on this summer. I've had a busy summer.
I'll give you a little story. Yesterday, actually, the in laws
moved in to New Hampshire and mysister-in-law needed a bed for
her daughter, my niece in law orniece.
And we had to drive all the way to Swampscott to pick up this
(16:38):
bed, which was like a bunk bed and it had like pull out drawers
and all this stuff, yadda, yadda.
It was an hour to drive there. We get there, it was a Facebook
marketplace deal. It's not disassembled at all.
The whole thing is fully assembled.
The guy said he's like, oh, comeand take it.
Yeah. Oh, well, could you tell me it
was wasn't broken down yet. So we spent like an hour on, you
know, wrenches, screwdrivers, disassemble the whole thing,
(17:02):
packed it in the car, drove it back to New Hampshire.
But I did a good deed for my sister-in-law, so I was happy
about that. But anyway, that's the kind of
stuff that you got to do in the summer.
So now you're having a busy summer, you get a lot going on.
But the fact you tune into the pod, grind these plays with me,
it really does mean a lot to me and I appreciate it.
But if you do enjoy the pod, youwant to let me know you like the
(17:22):
insights. Please could you give this
podcast a five star review on Spotify or iTunes?
Would go a long way to helping us to continue to grow the pod.
If you want to leave a nice comment under the review
section. Hey, I like the insights.
I value the insights on a daily basis.
I'll take that. If you want to click the follow
button, get alerted as soon as the pod drops each day.
Or if you would like to recommend the pod to a friend,
(17:44):
that would also very much be appreciated.
Next, if you enjoy the style of betting, notice how we don't
talk about what we think will happen tonight, what we hope,
what we want or I I feel like this.
No, no, no ain't feelings and emotions.
It's data because I learned a long time ago you bet with
feelings and emotions, you're going to be a losing better.
You got to trust the market follow the smart money.
(18:05):
That's really the key here when it comes to data-driven betting.
But if you want to learn more about data-driven betting, or
maybe you know someone in your life who could use some
data-driven tips, I would love for you guys to go to Amazon.com
and type in the Everything Guideto Sports Betting.
It's the first book ever wrote. It's got everything I've learned
in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
(18:26):
action, how to place the bet in person or online, how to shop
for the best line, how to set upa bankroll management plan,
chapters on all the major sports.
It's all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
Betting. And again, it's for brand new
betters, but also intermediate betters.
A lot of great tips there. Next, if you're staying on the
Amazon.com site page, whatever, then you got to type in the NFL
(18:49):
Sharp betting playbook because my new book, I can't believe it
guys, it comes out August 12th. We are two weeks and what let me
get this right, two weeks and 12345 days away.
So cannot believe that it's almost here.
But if you'd like to get a leg up on your NFL handicapping, if
you'd like to check out the newest project that I've spent
(19:11):
the last three years working on,if you want to support the pod,
it would make me happy, make my publisher triumph books happy.
If you would be interested in pre ordering a copy of the NFL
sharp betting playback, I think you're going to like it.
How? But bring the sharp betting
playbook, bring the everything guide to the sports book.
I'll sign them for you. I'll buy a beer or ginger ale.
We'll get some nachos and sweat some baseball together tonight.
(19:34):
Next, have you downloaded Rhythmand Juice Reel yet?
My two favorite sports betting apps.
If you haven't done it, you got to get on that because they are
great additions to your data-driven sports betting tool
case. Rhythm obviously does a great
job of powering this podcast, providing us AI backed models
and predictions for game bets and player props.
Right now you have MLB and WNBA,but I did get an e-mail that
(19:55):
there's going to be some new power rating or sorry power
trends, which started with props, but coming out for game
models. So I'm excited to see that as
Rhythm continues to innovate andget better and sharper by the by
the minute. And then also go download Juice
Reel. This is the part of the pod
where I'm going to pass the hat.If you like listening to this
pod, remember it's free. It cost you nothing.
(20:17):
But if you want to support the podcast, let me know you
appreciate the insights. I would love for you guys to
sign up to get the official all systems go best bet picks which
come right from the juice reel Juice reel app.
As soon as I bet a game, it goesright to my Juice Reel profile.
ASG under Score podcast. You can get those plays for
$4.99 a week. Again, 5 bucks cup of coffee.
(20:40):
Yeah, a cup of coffee. Maybe less even than that.
If again, you're like my wife and go to Starbucks and a
Starbucks coffee is like $7.00. And I don't even understand
Venti double shot. I just go to Dunks.
You know what my Dunks order is?Medium French vanilla iced
coffee, skim milk, 2 Splenda. Boom, done, done with it.
(21:01):
Make sure you get the rewards too because those come in handy.
But anyway, $4.99 a week, you'llget those plays, support the
pod. You can tail fade, do what you
like, but you'll get them a little bit earlier, earlier in
the day and hopefully beat some closing lines.
Also, you're going to get the Robo Jackson best bet picks, the
sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays.
Shop for the best sign features.You have Juice Reel as a great
(21:22):
app for a lot of different reasons.
So download Juice Reel, downloadrhythm.
They'll be off and running making sharp bets left and
right. Do you have a live odds page?
If you don't, you need one because you got to know is the
data-driven better? What is the market doing?
What numbers are moving? You got to know every game
available to you to bet that day.
The start times, the live scoring, the in game wagering
(21:43):
odds, the opening number, the current numbers.
Quickly identify which directionthe line is moving.
Pull up the line history, identify steam.
You know, I was looking at the My Odds Logic live odds page and
I saw Houston get lit up in the whole column or row, I should
say, got lit up on the Houston tab.
I saw them go from -125 up to -145 told me big money was
(22:05):
coming in on Houston. So that's just another way to
hopefully help you make smarter bets using odds logic.
So I'd love for you guys to giveodds logic a shot whether you
need a live odds page or you have 1:00 and it's free, but
it's slow and it doesn't give you a lot of books and you have
no freaking clue. They give you bets.
What's in like, where are these coming from?
They, they, they don't tell you.Of course they'll say, look,
(22:27):
that's our proprietary information.
Well, where is it coming from? You don't know.
Odd logic has got you covered. It is a great opportunity to
test it out now before football returns because you definitely
need it for football. But you can give it a shot. 7
day free trial and 50% off your first month of service.
Just go to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
(22:50):
So that about does it for episode 2/3/22 of y'all Systems
Go Sports betting pod powered byRhythm.
As always, I'm leaving with two final thoughts.
One, whether I see you at the Borgata and in Atlantic City,
Twin River in Rhode Island, Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown in Connecticut, at the Encore in
Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino, MGM Springfield.
(23:10):
Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
down. Or Billy Walter sends his number
runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the South
Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool when you catch a
big ticket at Circa. Or maybe you're going to walk up
to me, Mariners, Cubs, you're dead to me.
At least show me a Guard Guardians ticket.
It's good seeing the Guardians come through.
First one's on me, next one's onyou.
(23:32):
We'll post about the book and sweat some more baseball here
for tonight. So as always, guys 1 and 2, two
and one, O and three, three and O.
Never get too high when we're doing well, never get too low
when we're grinding and struggling.
We just stick with it. Even keeled, staying true to the
model. And again, making bets with our
head, not our heart. And I know it's like kind of
(23:52):
cliche, but it's true. We're betting based on what the
market is telling us. Will every market move when?
No, because betting is unpredictable.
It's hard. It's a gamble in the end.
But if we can consistently make smart data-driven picks, we're
going to come out on top. So those data-driven picks, you,
you may know by now, go something like this, games that
fit our model against the publicwith the house, with the pros,
(24:12):
flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
If we can do that again, I thinkwe're going to make this a
profitable hobby that turns intoan investment, which is the
goal. But anyway, guys, have a great
Thirsty Thursday. I will see you guys 8:00 tonight
on SiriusXM be some prime time. So if you want to tune in, I'll
see you there. But if not, I'll see you right
(24:32):
back tomorrow on a big Friday edition episode 323 of the All
Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
Good luck everybody, and have a great Thirsty Thursday.
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