July 28, 2025 • 25 mins
In Episode 324, Josh dishes out a 3-pack of MLB plays for Monday night.
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Josh's new book "The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook" comes out on August 12, 2025
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:19):
Hello, and welcome to episode 324 of the All Systems Go Sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Monday, a new week begins the final week in the month of
(00:41):
July. Man, summer is flying by.
Can you believe it? Guys?
It's crazy because on Thursday, Thursday, July 31st, final day
in the month of July, we have anNFL football game that we can
bet on. That's right, the Hall of Fame
game, Detroit Lions, LA Chargers, and of course, we got
a very, very short number here. Detroit basically -1 -, 1 1/2,
(01:02):
very low total of around 33 or 32 1/2.
It's not a ton of movement either way, but we will have an
opportunity to place a bet. If we see something, we don't
want to force it. We have seen historically that
money line favorites have done very well.
The last 18 Hall of Fame games, the money line favorites are 12
and 667 percent, 11% ROI. That would kind of lean you
(01:24):
toward Detroit. We've also seen historically at
one point Hall of Fame unders did very, very well.
And it was kind of just the ideaof, hey, these teams are very
vanilla. You know, the the defense is way
ahead of the offense. You got a lot of scrubs, but
you've actually seen the last three Hall of Fame games all go
over. So if you remember last year,
Bears, Texans, 2117, year beforethat, 2116 Browns, Jets, and
(01:48):
then Jags, Raiders was 27 to 11.So we've basically seen these
totals really, really low, 313233 around there.
And it used to be, you know, wash, rinse, repeat.
Just play the under because you get a lot of these like 16 to
seven games, 17 to 10 games. But they have gone over a little
bit recently, so we'll keep an eye on it.
Again, I don't have an official play for you yet.
(02:10):
We do have to look at the weather as well.
As of right now, it's going to be mid 70s around eight mile per
hour winds at the Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium.
Remember a few years ago I got to look at when it was, but when
when was the game where it was basically like the the field
turf was like cement and they they think they either started
the game and stopped it or didn't play it at all because of
(02:30):
the field conditions. So who knows, maybe something
weird like that'll pop up. But as of right now, again, we
got Detroit. It's just the fact that we can
here's the thing, guys, we may or may not have a play on
Thursday. Just the fact that we can talk
about a real NFL game that the lines are up and we can get down
on that tells you that the favorite time of year for the
wise guys for all sports bettersis is very close upon us.
(02:51):
But either way, guys, hope you had a fantastic weekend.
We are going to see if we can finish up strong here, continue
to grind baseball. Again, I think that's probably
music to the ears of a lot of you because we've had a pretty
good year. MLB, if you'd read the sharp
report, a nice little 3 and O sweep on Saturday.
So let's see if we can continue to grind baseball.
And again, I think the the beauty of baseball is there's
ups and downs. Yeah, you're going to have your
(03:12):
heart ripped out. Closer's going to blow a lead or
team's going to come up short. But it's really a a long term
approach where if you can just grind, grind, grind, play the
system matches, hopefully you can come out on top at the end
of the year. So I like the fact that for
today, I was actually just on Stormy show at Visa and money
moves with Ariel Epstein and Stormy was like, hey, how Josh,
(03:33):
how excited are you that there's15 games on a Monday?
I said, oh, I'm pretty excited Stormy because again, usually
Mondays you have like 8 games. There's that weird Thursday last
week there where there's only five games.
So just the fact that today we have a new week to, to get down
and start a hope, hopefully a winning streak.
And then of course, we have a lot of games to choose from.
That is typically the benefit orto the benefit of a data-driven
(03:54):
better because again, 15 games, we're not looking about 10 or 15
of them. I'm looking about three of them
and go 2 and 1 and eke out a winning day.
So without further ado, 3 pack overall.
Let's waste no more time and getright into it.
We'll see if we can again go 2 and 1.
And I must say I want to mentionthis too, Happy Gilmore.
I was a huge Happy Gilmore fan, the first one, of course, in the
(04:15):
90s. One of my favorite movies of all
time. Anytime Happy Gilmore or The
Wedding Singer or of course, youknow the the greatest of them
all, Billy Madison comes on TV. I'll watch it every time, but I
did watch what Happy Gilmore 2 with the wife over the weekend
and believe it or not, she wanted to watch it for all the
cameos and the celebrities. And I went on Twitter and like
(04:36):
this is just a tangent, but I don't know if you guys feel the
same way. Everyone on Twitter was like,
what a terrible movie, what a joke, the worst thing I've ever
seen. I thought it was kind of dumb
fun and I enjoyed it personally.And again, if you saw the first
one, a lot of the references to the second one kind of made a
lot of sense and give you that kind of like warm fuzzy feeling
when he's showing chubs and you know, all the, all the people
(04:58):
from the first movie. So I don't know what you guys
thought Again, I, I liked it. I just, you know, why did you go
on Twitter and, and just bash how terrible it was?
Like, what were you expecting? Like, you know, Shawshank
redemption, you know, this is, this is an Adam Sandler movie
and whatever. I thought it was pretty funny.
Anyway, let's dive into our sweats and not take too much
time with movie reviews. Tampa Bay Rays at the New York
(05:19):
Yankees, 7 O 5:00 PM Eastern Time first pitch.
Let's talk line movement. That split system matches and
I'll give you my play for this one.
So going into it, we got two teams were kind of struggling a
bit. Ray's 53 and 53500 just got
swept by the Reds. They lost yesterday's
interleague series finale 2 to one as a -, 110 Rd.
Pick em. You know the Yankees, Aaron
(05:40):
Judges hurt. They really struggled out of the
break. They're 57 and 48.
Pretty good record. But remember they were like 20
games above 500 just a short time ago.
They just lost two or three against the Phillies.
Did avoid the sweep though. They won four to three yesterday
as a + 115 home dog. So pitching match up here for
today. We have the Rays going with the
righty Drew Rasmussen. He's seven and five with a 2.93
(06:03):
ERA. Meanwhile, the Yankees are going
to go with the righty Cam Schlitter, who is 1 and O with a
4.35 ERA. So what are you sitting across
the market? Well, this game opened Yankees a
very, very short favorite. Yankees are only -115 home
favorite opener Tampa Bay arounda -, 1 O five row dog.
And it's always notable to me when you open a very short
number, you know, does the number get shorter and get down
(06:25):
to a pick em or flip dog to fave?
Or do the wise guys say, man, that opener was too short, let's
hit that short favorite because maybe we have them, you know, a
little bit more expensive. Therefore there's an edge or an
advantage over the book. Really the ladder's happened
here because the Yankees after after opening -115 have now been
bet up to -130. So it tells us we got about a 15
(06:46):
cent steam move in favor of New York.
If you look at the bet splits right now, draftking 65% of
money line bets, 75% of money line dollars are on the Bronx
Bombers. So we're starting to build a
case for New York line move in their favor.
Low bets, higher dollars split. Now we look at some system
matches here. Couple that lit up for me.
(07:06):
If you are a Monday home team with line movement in your
favor, very simple system, whatever, for every reason, you
start a new week, the Monday home favorite with a line move,
that team's done pretty good. 54and 2965%.
Eleven percent ROI. Also, if you'll get short home
favorites -140 or less with a line move in their favor, 62 and
(07:26):
3167% with a 19% ROI. So a couple good system matches
on the Yankees. Now I'm going to bank on the
Yankees bats hopefully getting to Rasmussen.
Obviously, no Judge because he'shurt and there's actually been a
big flip in the MVP odds in Cal Raleigh is either now pick them
or like a -. 115 favorite tells you, hey, is Judge going to be
(07:46):
back quickly or is he going to be out for a while?
We shall see. But anyway, the Yankees do have
the better bats overall. They've hit 168 home runs, 543
runs scored, Tampa Bay, 115 homers, 488 runs scored.
And Rasmussen, he's been good just in general.
But if you dig a little deeper, he's been better at home and in
(08:07):
the day and worse on the road and at night.
And tonight he's on the road at night in on the road.
He has a 3.3 O ERA, 3.25 ERA at night at home 2.76 daytime 2.48.
So he's on the road at at night tonight again.
Hopefully the Yankees can get tohim and Cam Schlitter, which was
(08:27):
kind of funny. I was on a real and stormy show
and I said Cam shitter. I almost said schlitter Shitter
or schlitter. I kind of like screwed my words
up. Anyway, make sure you have the L
in there Schlitter. And again, nothing better than
Cam Schlitter against the big dumper.
That's the big match up you always want in baseball.
But anyway, Cam Schlitter makinghis third career start, he's
(08:48):
facing the Rays for the first time.
So maybe the element of surprise, maybe they haven't
seen him before. Maybe that's why wise guys are
leaning toward the Yankees and the Rays.
Only 22 and 15 and 25 at home, three games below 500.
Yankees 31 and 21 at home. So you got it all up here, guys.
And all the Yankees have struggled a bit.
But I'm going to trust the market.
Maybe this speaks more to the Tampa Bay Rays, how they've
(09:10):
struggled versus maybe the love for New York.
But I'm going to go Yankees in the spot.
Pretty widely available number. I got the Yankees -130 next step
for you. 7:40 PM Eastern Time, first pitch, my Boston Red Sox
visiting the Minnesota Twinkies now going to it.
Red Sox 57 and 50. Just took two or three against
(09:31):
the Dodgers. Guys, they're making me believe
over 85 1/2 wins. Who played that before the
season started? Texas Rangers also making me
believe same number over 85 1/2.I think there's again seven
games over 500. Anyway, that's why I love win
totals too. It gives you something to root
for throughout the year. But the Sox took two or three
against the Dodgers. They won four to three
yesterday. Bregman hit a bomb to win the
(09:53):
game as a -1 O 5 home dog. You know, the Twinkies 50 and
55. They just dropped two or three
against the Nats. They lost 7 to 2 yesterday as a
-175 home favorite. So pitching match up here, we
got the Sox going with Dick Fitz, Richard Fitz, insert your
joke there, your juvenile joke one and four 4.86 ERA Twinkies.
(10:15):
Meanwhile, going with the ready Simeon Woods Richardson.
He's five and four with a 4.14 ERA.
So what we seen across the market here, Well, this one's
really interesting because it opened Minnesota a -, 125 home
favorite Red Sox A plus one O 5 Rd. dog.
Remember, we just talked about the Yankees game.
It was a short opener and went further toward New York.
Well, this game's gone the opposite way.
(10:36):
Short opener Minnesota and now it's really plummeted down
toward a pick em. We've seen Minnesota go from
-125 down to -110 We've seen theRed Sox flip plus one O 5 to
-110 So basically we are seeing dog to pick em line movement in
favor of the Red Sox. You'll do the bet splits that
look really good on Boston at DraftKings. 62% of bets, 82% of
(11:00):
dollars at Circa, 50% of bets, 94% of dollars.
So both DraftKings and Circa with a really good low bets,
higher dollar split in favor of the Red Sox.
Continuing to build a case for Boston.
Hope the bats come to play and get to Woods Richardson because
the Red Sox on the air have the better bats.
Hitting two 51130 home runs, 520runs scored.
(11:22):
Twins meanwhile, hitting two 41121 homers, 440 runs scored.
Now we have 2 righties on the bump.
Isolate the righties. Red Sox have been better against
righty's hitting 15th best in baseball against righty's.
Minnesota ranks 22nd. Also fits.
You know, I might be pushing this too much, but he has been
better on the road. At home, he hasn't been great.
(11:43):
6.32 ERA on the road 3.8 O. So hopefully you can keep him in
the game, you know. Meanwhile, Woods Richardson in
the day, he has an ERA of 3.18 at night 5.2 O going up against
the Red Sox tonight. Also Red Sox bullpen team ERA of
3.3 O That's the 4th best in baseball.
Twins 4.33 that's the eighth worst in baseball and you could
(12:06):
have told me you had me at the dog to pick them.
Line move again, line open. Minnesota favorite.
We've really fallen, plummeted toward to pick them.
We got low bets, higher dollars,bet splits.
We got better bats, better bullpen, and did I mention this
Red Sox have pitched much betteras of late. 3.34 ERA over the
last ten, 5.22 for the Twins. So that all up here guys, I
(12:28):
jumped on the Red Sox minus one O 5 at ESPN bet.
I believe they're still minus one O 5 at ESPN bet.
But again, shop rounds. Most books are up to -110 for
Boston, but let's go socks last bat of the night, 9:45 PM
Eastern Time, late night sweat on the West Coast.
Pittsburgh Pirates visiting the San Francisco G men now going
(12:50):
into it. The Pirates are 44 and 62.
They did however, just take two or three against the D backs.
They won yesterday's series finale 6 to nothing as a -150
home favorite. On the flip side, the G men 54
and 52, they've really fallen off here.
Looks like as of now Red Sox have gotten the better of the
Devers trade, but the Giants just got swept by the Mets,
(13:11):
losing 5 to 3 yesterday as a + 110 home dog.
Now pitching match up here. Pay attention.
This is interesting. Pirates are going with Mitch
Keller, the righty 4 and 10 record, but a respectable 3.53
ERA. The G men are starting lefty
Carson Wizenhunt Now. If you've never heard of this
guy, I don't blame you. I never heard of him before
today. He's making his Major League
(13:33):
Baseball debut. He was a second round pick in
2022. He's the top pitching prospect
in the Giant system. Actually, I remember hearing
about this guy because when the Red Sox traded Devers, they
really wanted this kid Wizenhunt, and instead they had
to settle for Kyle Harrison Wizenhunt.
His numbers don't look amazing, 8 and five, 4.42 ERA and AAA.
(13:54):
But again, element of surprise, Pittsburgh's never seen him.
What have you seen across the market?
Well, San Fran opened as a relatively short -120 home
favorite, Pittsburgh A + 100 Rd.dog.
And this is always notable to me.
And again, we talked about it onthe pod anytime it pops up.
But someone making their Major League debut or their first
start of the year or first startwith a new team, it's always
(14:16):
notable. Where does the where do the
sharps push the number? Do they push it away from that?
That starting pitcher because they're in over their head.
It's the bright lights of the major leagues.
They're not ready. They're going to get lit up
higher level of competition or or or or do they back that
pitcher making their debut because maybe they're better
than you think. Or my thought is always the
(14:37):
other team's never seen him before.
So that's an advantage to the pitcher because there's no book
on the guy. Looks like again, it's the
second part here because the line is gone toward the G men
and Wizen Hunt giants have gone from -120 up to -130 at
DraftKings. 66% bets, 68% money on the G men, so low bets higher
dollar split home favorites witha line move in their direction.
(14:59):
41 and 2166 percent, 6% ROI. G men have a couple other
supplementary angles that we like.
Favorite low total told this oneis 8 juiced under some books
even down to 7 1/2. So fewer amount of expected runs
scored. More likely to come from quote
UN quote that better team. San Fran also has betting system
(15:19):
value as a non division favorite.
Lack of familiarity also benefiting the better team, the
G men by the way, better bats. They've hit a hundred home runs,
scored 436 runs. You look at the Pirates, they've
hit 69 homers, scored 358 runs. Giants also have a big edge in
the bullpen team area of 3.23. That's the second best in
baseball. Pirates 3.81.
(15:42):
This also might be an angle hereto fade Pittsburgh against
southpaws. They're only hitting 217 this
year. That's the second worst batting
average against lefties of any team in baseball.
G men, by the way, 28 and 23 at home, even though they just got
swept. Still five games, about 500.
Pirates 13 and 37 on the road. Second worst Rd. record in
baseball. Only the Rockies are worse, 13
(16:07):
and 40. So I know the G men have
struggled. They just got swept.
Obviously, Pittsburgh's taking two of three, but this is one of
those plays where I'm going to trust the market.
We've got steam toward the G men.
We got a pitcher making his debut.
I'm back in San Fran in this spot.
Give me the G men -130 So Yankees, Red Sox, G men, can we
get 2 out of 3? Eke out a winning day?
(16:29):
You guys know the drill. That is always the goal.
So that about does it for episode 324 of the All Systems
Go Sports Betting podcast Power by Rhythm.
This, of course, is the part of the pod where we wrap things up
and I start first by saying thank you.
Thank you for grinding the dog days of summer in baseball with
me. I know the numbers are higher
(16:50):
for listens and everything when baseball, when football's back,
I should say. But still, we got a steady group
of devoted wise guy grinders forMajor League Baseball.
So that means a lot to me because I know it's summer and
it was a lot going on. Maybe you don't want to be
listen to a podcast. Maybe you want to be outside.
Even though we had another heat wave in Boston, it's going to be
like 99° tomorrow. But I appreciate you guys.
(17:11):
Thank you for tuning in. Thank you for supporting the
pod. If you want to let me know you
appreciate the pod, could you dome a solid?
I promise it'll be painless and easy and quick.
Could you give this podcast a five star review?
If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, if you want to leave
a nice comment under the review section, it can be as simple as,
hey, I enjoy listening to these insights each day.
Boom, that would mean a lot helpus get our our rating up and
(17:35):
five star reviews up and then, of course, if you want to click
the follow button, get alerted as soon as it drops each day or
recommend the pod to a friend orfamily member or fellow better
that'll be awesome as well. Next, if you enjoy the style of
betting breakdown, notice we don't talk.
You know you know what we think will happen.
We hope what we expect what we want to happen.
(17:55):
We don't talk parlays because they're hand out to the book.
We just grind flat data-driven bets.
So if this style of betting by monitoring the market, picking
up on the context clues, paying attention to line movement, bet
split system matches, if this style betting has kind of piqued
your interest, you've kind of seen the fruits, the labor of it
a bit. You want to learn more about
data-driven betting. Well, guess what, I would love
(18:17):
for you to go to Amazon.com and type in the everything guide to
sports betting. That's the first book ever
wrote. I'm very proud of it.
It's great for new betters or for kind of intermediate
betters. We're looking for more, you
know, more tips and strategies and systems.
If you want to pick up the everything guide, it's got
everything I've learned in the industry.
How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
(18:38):
movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place the bet in
person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
a bankroll management plan. All that is included in the
everything guide to sports betting.
So while you're picking up the everything guide, stay on
Amazon.com and then pre-order a new copy, a brand new copy of my
new book, the NFL Sharp Betting playbook.
(18:59):
It comes out August 12th. I can't believe it.
We're basically two weeks away, which is 2 weeks and one day
away. It comes out Tuesday, August
12th. If you want to get a leg up on
your NFL handicapping, if you want to support the pod, if you
want to check out what I've beenworking on day and night for
over three years at this point, I would love for you guys to to
pre-order a copy of the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook.
(19:21):
And when you bring the Sharp Betting Playbook in the NFL or
the Everything Guide to sports betting to the sports book, I'll
sign them for you. I'll buy a beer or ginger ale,
or truly, I'll sweat some of these baseball games together
next. Have you downloaded Rhythm and
Juice Reel yet? Well, if you haven't, what are
you waiting for? My two favorite sports betting
apps. They're all data-driven, which
is right up our alley. Rhythm obviously does a great
(19:42):
job powering this pod, providingus game bets and player props
and power trends for baseball and for WNBA right now.
But pretty soon we're going to have football and basketball
back. Cannot wait for that.
And I do have hopefully next week in announcement when it
comes to rhythm because we got something pretty big planned for
this upcoming fall. And then also Juice Reel got to
(20:03):
go download Juice Reel, another great sports betting app.
Here we go. I'm passing the hat.
This pod is free. If you enjoy the pod, if you
value the insights, I'd love foryou to drop in a $5.00 bill or
$4.99 to be exact. And but with that 5 bucks you're
going to sign up for the All Systems Go official best bet
picks, which you can get exclusively and only on the
Juice Reel app. So you can click that link I put
(20:25):
out each day on Twitter at Josh under score Insights.
Or you can just go to the buy buy, sell tab, bottom right, go
to I think it's buy, click and search ASG under score podcast.
Boom, you can have a 7 day free trial and then stick around and
follow the place for $4.99 a week.
Again, basically a cup of coffeeand hopefully you feel like the
(20:47):
podcasts are worth $0.99 of insights each day.
I would like to think that they are worth much more than that.
But anyway, you're also going toget the row with Jackson Best
bet picks, the sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays,
the shop for the best sign features.
Sync up your sports books to theapp.
All included when you download Juice Reel.
So download Juice Reel and download Rhythm.
You'll be off and running makingsharp data-driven plays.
(21:11):
Lastly, do you have a live odds page?
Well, if you don't, you need onebecause it is such an important
tool when it comes to being a data-driven sports better
because pretty obvious pretty simple.
You got you need data to make tomake smart bets.
You need to know all the games being played that day.
What games can I bet on Which ones can I choose from What are
the start times live scoring when the game gets going live
(21:34):
lines. I love sweating my my games and
having the odds Logic live odds page in front of me because it
updates as the game is going on.So I can see, hey, I bet this
team -130 they're now -400 on the live on.
That's a good thing. Or maybe it's the other way and
I get nervous or maybe there's ain game wagering opportunity.
But Odds Logic is the best live odds page around.
You're going to get all the opening numbers, the current
(21:55):
prices across the market. You can easily see which
direction the line is moving. You can pull up the line
history. You can of course identify
Steam. As soon as any odds change, they
get lit up in red. So if you have see one odds for
corresponding for a specific team or total all get lit up in
red, you know, that's that's getting hit.
It's moving. So again, there's a lot of live
odds pages out there, but I'd love for you guys to try out
(22:17):
odds logic. I hope you know, I wouldn't, you
know, tout for something that I don't believe in myself.
I use it every day. It is a great live odds page and
it's really not that expensive. It's it is 99 bucks a month.
If you want to keep it long term, I think there's long term
rates. So you can save some money as
well. But if you use this link
oddslogic.com/josh 123, you'll get 70 free trial 50% off your
(22:43):
first month. Then you can make sure you like
it. But it is a great piece of
information that I use everyday and I think you guys will enjoy
it as well. Again, that's Odds
logic.com/josh 123. So that about does it for
episode 324 of the ASG Pod finalweek here in the month of July
and get get ready. It's about to get crazy with
(23:04):
football returning, but we wouldn't have it any other way.
Lastly, I'll leave you with two final thoughts.
Whether I see you at the Borgatain Atlantic City, Twin River in
Rhode Island, the Brook in New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
Sundown in Connecticut, at the Encore in Boston, or Plain Ridge
Park Casino or MGM Springfield and my neck of the woods in
Massachusetts. Or out in the desert where the
true grinders get down. Or Billy Walters sends his
(23:26):
number runners where the lowest true as possible is found at the
South Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
plays jumping in the stadium swim pool.
When you catch a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
hopefully you're going to show me couple winners from tonight,
Yankees, Red Sox, Giants. First one's on me, next one's on
you. We'll post about the book and
sweat some baseball games together tonight.
(23:46):
As always guys, whether we're coming off a great three and O
day or a terrible O and three day 2 and one, one and two, hot,
cold, somewhere in the middle. We just got to keep grinding
when we're hot or don't get cocky and arrogant whenever as
good as we think when we're bad and struggling, don't get down
on yourself. Don't get don't get depressed
and feel like you're never goingto win again.
You just got to keep knocking atthe door making smart plays.
(24:09):
And that that of course, it's kind of a long game that we try
to play. But in the end, guys are making
bets with our head and not our heart.
And we're trying to find games that fit our model, which goes a
little something like this against the public, with the
house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that CLV if
we can do that, and I'm pretty confident that we can.
And guess what, we're going to be successful sports betters
(24:30):
long term. So have a great money on
everybody. Hope you had a great weekend as
well. I will see you guys tomorrow for
episode 325 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
great Monday night.
Hello, and welcome to episode 324 of the All Systems Go Sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Monday, a new week begins the final week in the month of
(00:41):
July. Man, summer is flying by.
Can you believe it? Guys?
It's crazy because on Thursday, Thursday, July 31st, final day
in the month of July, we have anNFL football game that we can
bet on. That's right, the Hall of Fame
game, Detroit Lions, LA Chargers, and of course, we got
a very, very short number here. Detroit basically -1 -, 1 1/2,
(01:02):
very low total of around 33 or 32 1/2.
It's not a ton of movement either way, but we will have an
opportunity to place a bet. If we see something, we don't
want to force it. We have seen historically that
money line favorites have done very well.
The last 18 Hall of Fame games, the money line favorites are 12
and 667 percent, 11% ROI. That would kind of lean you
(01:24):
toward Detroit. We've also seen historically at
one point Hall of Fame unders did very, very well.
And it was kind of just the ideaof, hey, these teams are very
vanilla. You know, the the defense is way
ahead of the offense. You got a lot of scrubs, but
you've actually seen the last three Hall of Fame games all go
over. So if you remember last year,
Bears, Texans, 2117, year beforethat, 2116 Browns, Jets, and
(01:48):
then Jags, Raiders was 27 to 11.So we've basically seen these
totals really, really low, 313233 around there.
And it used to be, you know, wash, rinse, repeat.
Just play the under because you get a lot of these like 16 to
seven games, 17 to 10 games. But they have gone over a little
bit recently, so we'll keep an eye on it.
Again, I don't have an official play for you yet.
(02:10):
We do have to look at the weather as well.
As of right now, it's going to be mid 70s around eight mile per
hour winds at the Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium.
Remember a few years ago I got to look at when it was, but when
when was the game where it was basically like the the field
turf was like cement and they they think they either started
the game and stopped it or didn't play it at all because of
(02:30):
the field conditions. So who knows, maybe something
weird like that'll pop up. But as of right now, again, we
got Detroit. It's just the fact that we can
here's the thing, guys, we may or may not have a play on
Thursday. Just the fact that we can talk
about a real NFL game that the lines are up and we can get down
on that tells you that the favorite time of year for the
wise guys for all sports bettersis is very close upon us.
(02:51):
But either way, guys, hope you had a fantastic weekend.
We are going to see if we can finish up strong here, continue
to grind baseball. Again, I think that's probably
music to the ears of a lot of you because we've had a pretty
good year. MLB, if you'd read the sharp
report, a nice little 3 and O sweep on Saturday.
So let's see if we can continue to grind baseball.
And again, I think the the beauty of baseball is there's
ups and downs. Yeah, you're going to have your
(03:12):
heart ripped out. Closer's going to blow a lead or
team's going to come up short. But it's really a a long term
approach where if you can just grind, grind, grind, play the
system matches, hopefully you can come out on top at the end
of the year. So I like the fact that for
today, I was actually just on Stormy show at Visa and money
moves with Ariel Epstein and Stormy was like, hey, how Josh,
(03:33):
how excited are you that there's15 games on a Monday?
I said, oh, I'm pretty excited Stormy because again, usually
Mondays you have like 8 games. There's that weird Thursday last
week there where there's only five games.
So just the fact that today we have a new week to, to get down
and start a hope, hopefully a winning streak.
And then of course, we have a lot of games to choose from.
That is typically the benefit orto the benefit of a data-driven
(03:54):
better because again, 15 games, we're not looking about 10 or 15
of them. I'm looking about three of them
and go 2 and 1 and eke out a winning day.
So without further ado, 3 pack overall.
Let's waste no more time and getright into it.
We'll see if we can again go 2 and 1.
And I must say I want to mentionthis too, Happy Gilmore.
I was a huge Happy Gilmore fan, the first one, of course, in the
(04:15):
90s. One of my favorite movies of all
time. Anytime Happy Gilmore or The
Wedding Singer or of course, youknow the the greatest of them
all, Billy Madison comes on TV. I'll watch it every time, but I
did watch what Happy Gilmore 2 with the wife over the weekend
and believe it or not, she wanted to watch it for all the
cameos and the celebrities. And I went on Twitter and like
(04:36):
this is just a tangent, but I don't know if you guys feel the
same way. Everyone on Twitter was like,
what a terrible movie, what a joke, the worst thing I've ever
seen. I thought it was kind of dumb
fun and I enjoyed it personally.And again, if you saw the first
one, a lot of the references to the second one kind of made a
lot of sense and give you that kind of like warm fuzzy feeling
when he's showing chubs and you know, all the, all the people
(04:58):
from the first movie. So I don't know what you guys
thought Again, I, I liked it. I just, you know, why did you go
on Twitter and, and just bash how terrible it was?
Like, what were you expecting? Like, you know, Shawshank
redemption, you know, this is, this is an Adam Sandler movie
and whatever. I thought it was pretty funny.
Anyway, let's dive into our sweats and not take too much
time with movie reviews. Tampa Bay Rays at the New York
(05:19):
Yankees, 7 O 5:00 PM Eastern Time first pitch.
Let's talk line movement. That split system matches and
I'll give you my play for this one.
So going into it, we got two teams were kind of struggling a
bit. Ray's 53 and 53500 just got
swept by the Reds. They lost yesterday's
interleague series finale 2 to one as a -, 110 Rd.
Pick em. You know the Yankees, Aaron
(05:40):
Judges hurt. They really struggled out of the
break. They're 57 and 48.
Pretty good record. But remember they were like 20
games above 500 just a short time ago.
They just lost two or three against the Phillies.
Did avoid the sweep though. They won four to three yesterday
as a + 115 home dog. So pitching match up here for
today. We have the Rays going with the
righty Drew Rasmussen. He's seven and five with a 2.93
(06:03):
ERA. Meanwhile, the Yankees are going
to go with the righty Cam Schlitter, who is 1 and O with a
4.35 ERA. So what are you sitting across
the market? Well, this game opened Yankees a
very, very short favorite. Yankees are only -115 home
favorite opener Tampa Bay arounda -, 1 O five row dog.
And it's always notable to me when you open a very short
number, you know, does the number get shorter and get down
(06:25):
to a pick em or flip dog to fave?
Or do the wise guys say, man, that opener was too short, let's
hit that short favorite because maybe we have them, you know, a
little bit more expensive. Therefore there's an edge or an
advantage over the book. Really the ladder's happened
here because the Yankees after after opening -115 have now been
bet up to -130. So it tells us we got about a 15
(06:46):
cent steam move in favor of New York.
If you look at the bet splits right now, draftking 65% of
money line bets, 75% of money line dollars are on the Bronx
Bombers. So we're starting to build a
case for New York line move in their favor.
Low bets, higher dollars split. Now we look at some system
matches here. Couple that lit up for me.
(07:06):
If you are a Monday home team with line movement in your
favor, very simple system, whatever, for every reason, you
start a new week, the Monday home favorite with a line move,
that team's done pretty good. 54and 2965%.
Eleven percent ROI. Also, if you'll get short home
favorites -140 or less with a line move in their favor, 62 and
(07:26):
3167% with a 19% ROI. So a couple good system matches
on the Yankees. Now I'm going to bank on the
Yankees bats hopefully getting to Rasmussen.
Obviously, no Judge because he'shurt and there's actually been a
big flip in the MVP odds in Cal Raleigh is either now pick them
or like a -. 115 favorite tells you, hey, is Judge going to be
(07:46):
back quickly or is he going to be out for a while?
We shall see. But anyway, the Yankees do have
the better bats overall. They've hit 168 home runs, 543
runs scored, Tampa Bay, 115 homers, 488 runs scored.
And Rasmussen, he's been good just in general.
But if you dig a little deeper, he's been better at home and in
(08:07):
the day and worse on the road and at night.
And tonight he's on the road at night in on the road.
He has a 3.3 O ERA, 3.25 ERA at night at home 2.76 daytime 2.48.
So he's on the road at at night tonight again.
Hopefully the Yankees can get tohim and Cam Schlitter, which was
(08:27):
kind of funny. I was on a real and stormy show
and I said Cam shitter. I almost said schlitter Shitter
or schlitter. I kind of like screwed my words
up. Anyway, make sure you have the L
in there Schlitter. And again, nothing better than
Cam Schlitter against the big dumper.
That's the big match up you always want in baseball.
But anyway, Cam Schlitter makinghis third career start, he's
(08:48):
facing the Rays for the first time.
So maybe the element of surprise, maybe they haven't
seen him before. Maybe that's why wise guys are
leaning toward the Yankees and the Rays.
Only 22 and 15 and 25 at home, three games below 500.
Yankees 31 and 21 at home. So you got it all up here, guys.
And all the Yankees have struggled a bit.
But I'm going to trust the market.
Maybe this speaks more to the Tampa Bay Rays, how they've
(09:10):
struggled versus maybe the love for New York.
But I'm going to go Yankees in the spot.
Pretty widely available number. I got the Yankees -130 next step
for you. 7:40 PM Eastern Time, first pitch, my Boston Red Sox
visiting the Minnesota Twinkies now going to it.
Red Sox 57 and 50. Just took two or three against
(09:31):
the Dodgers. Guys, they're making me believe
over 85 1/2 wins. Who played that before the
season started? Texas Rangers also making me
believe same number over 85 1/2.I think there's again seven
games over 500. Anyway, that's why I love win
totals too. It gives you something to root
for throughout the year. But the Sox took two or three
against the Dodgers. They won four to three
yesterday. Bregman hit a bomb to win the
(09:53):
game as a -1 O 5 home dog. You know, the Twinkies 50 and
55. They just dropped two or three
against the Nats. They lost 7 to 2 yesterday as a
-175 home favorite. So pitching match up here, we
got the Sox going with Dick Fitz, Richard Fitz, insert your
joke there, your juvenile joke one and four 4.86 ERA Twinkies.
(10:15):
Meanwhile, going with the ready Simeon Woods Richardson.
He's five and four with a 4.14 ERA.
So what we seen across the market here, Well, this one's
really interesting because it opened Minnesota a -, 125 home
favorite Red Sox A plus one O 5 Rd. dog.
Remember, we just talked about the Yankees game.
It was a short opener and went further toward New York.
Well, this game's gone the opposite way.
(10:36):
Short opener Minnesota and now it's really plummeted down
toward a pick em. We've seen Minnesota go from
-125 down to -110 We've seen theRed Sox flip plus one O 5 to
-110 So basically we are seeing dog to pick em line movement in
favor of the Red Sox. You'll do the bet splits that
look really good on Boston at DraftKings. 62% of bets, 82% of
(11:00):
dollars at Circa, 50% of bets, 94% of dollars.
So both DraftKings and Circa with a really good low bets,
higher dollar split in favor of the Red Sox.
Continuing to build a case for Boston.
Hope the bats come to play and get to Woods Richardson because
the Red Sox on the air have the better bats.
Hitting two 51130 home runs, 520runs scored.
(11:22):
Twins meanwhile, hitting two 41121 homers, 440 runs scored.
Now we have 2 righties on the bump.
Isolate the righties. Red Sox have been better against
righty's hitting 15th best in baseball against righty's.
Minnesota ranks 22nd. Also fits.
You know, I might be pushing this too much, but he has been
better on the road. At home, he hasn't been great.
(11:43):
6.32 ERA on the road 3.8 O. So hopefully you can keep him in
the game, you know. Meanwhile, Woods Richardson in
the day, he has an ERA of 3.18 at night 5.2 O going up against
the Red Sox tonight. Also Red Sox bullpen team ERA of
3.3 O That's the 4th best in baseball.
Twins 4.33 that's the eighth worst in baseball and you could
(12:06):
have told me you had me at the dog to pick them.
Line move again, line open. Minnesota favorite.
We've really fallen, plummeted toward to pick them.
We got low bets, higher dollars,bet splits.
We got better bats, better bullpen, and did I mention this
Red Sox have pitched much betteras of late. 3.34 ERA over the
last ten, 5.22 for the Twins. So that all up here guys, I
(12:28):
jumped on the Red Sox minus one O 5 at ESPN bet.
I believe they're still minus one O 5 at ESPN bet.
But again, shop rounds. Most books are up to -110 for
Boston, but let's go socks last bat of the night, 9:45 PM
Eastern Time, late night sweat on the West Coast.
Pittsburgh Pirates visiting the San Francisco G men now going
(12:50):
into it. The Pirates are 44 and 62.
They did however, just take two or three against the D backs.
They won yesterday's series finale 6 to nothing as a -150
home favorite. On the flip side, the G men 54
and 52, they've really fallen off here.
Looks like as of now Red Sox have gotten the better of the
Devers trade, but the Giants just got swept by the Mets,
(13:11):
losing 5 to 3 yesterday as a + 110 home dog.
Now pitching match up here. Pay attention.
This is interesting. Pirates are going with Mitch
Keller, the righty 4 and 10 record, but a respectable 3.53
ERA. The G men are starting lefty
Carson Wizenhunt Now. If you've never heard of this
guy, I don't blame you. I never heard of him before
today. He's making his Major League
(13:33):
Baseball debut. He was a second round pick in
2022. He's the top pitching prospect
in the Giant system. Actually, I remember hearing
about this guy because when the Red Sox traded Devers, they
really wanted this kid Wizenhunt, and instead they had
to settle for Kyle Harrison Wizenhunt.
His numbers don't look amazing, 8 and five, 4.42 ERA and AAA.
(13:54):
But again, element of surprise, Pittsburgh's never seen him.
What have you seen across the market?
Well, San Fran opened as a relatively short -120 home
favorite, Pittsburgh A + 100 Rd.dog.
And this is always notable to me.
And again, we talked about it onthe pod anytime it pops up.
But someone making their Major League debut or their first
start of the year or first startwith a new team, it's always
(14:16):
notable. Where does the where do the
sharps push the number? Do they push it away from that?
That starting pitcher because they're in over their head.
It's the bright lights of the major leagues.
They're not ready. They're going to get lit up
higher level of competition or or or or do they back that
pitcher making their debut because maybe they're better
than you think. Or my thought is always the
(14:37):
other team's never seen him before.
So that's an advantage to the pitcher because there's no book
on the guy. Looks like again, it's the
second part here because the line is gone toward the G men
and Wizen Hunt giants have gone from -120 up to -130 at
DraftKings. 66% bets, 68% money on the G men, so low bets higher
dollar split home favorites witha line move in their direction.
(14:59):
41 and 2166 percent, 6% ROI. G men have a couple other
supplementary angles that we like.
Favorite low total told this oneis 8 juiced under some books
even down to 7 1/2. So fewer amount of expected runs
scored. More likely to come from quote
UN quote that better team. San Fran also has betting system
(15:19):
value as a non division favorite.
Lack of familiarity also benefiting the better team, the
G men by the way, better bats. They've hit a hundred home runs,
scored 436 runs. You look at the Pirates, they've
hit 69 homers, scored 358 runs. Giants also have a big edge in
the bullpen team area of 3.23. That's the second best in
baseball. Pirates 3.81.
(15:42):
This also might be an angle hereto fade Pittsburgh against
southpaws. They're only hitting 217 this
year. That's the second worst batting
average against lefties of any team in baseball.
G men, by the way, 28 and 23 at home, even though they just got
swept. Still five games, about 500.
Pirates 13 and 37 on the road. Second worst Rd. record in
baseball. Only the Rockies are worse, 13
(16:07):
and 40. So I know the G men have
struggled. They just got swept.
Obviously, Pittsburgh's taking two of three, but this is one of
those plays where I'm going to trust the market.
We've got steam toward the G men.
We got a pitcher making his debut.
I'm back in San Fran in this spot.
Give me the G men -130 So Yankees, Red Sox, G men, can we
get 2 out of 3? Eke out a winning day?
(16:29):
You guys know the drill. That is always the goal.
So that about does it for episode 324 of the All Systems
Go Sports Betting podcast Power by Rhythm.
This, of course, is the part of the pod where we wrap things up
and I start first by saying thank you.
Thank you for grinding the dog days of summer in baseball with
me. I know the numbers are higher
(16:50):
for listens and everything when baseball, when football's back,
I should say. But still, we got a steady group
of devoted wise guy grinders forMajor League Baseball.
So that means a lot to me because I know it's summer and
it was a lot going on. Maybe you don't want to be
listen to a podcast. Maybe you want to be outside.
Even though we had another heat wave in Boston, it's going to be
like 99° tomorrow. But I appreciate you guys.
(17:11):
Thank you for tuning in. Thank you for supporting the
pod. If you want to let me know you
appreciate the pod, could you dome a solid?
I promise it'll be painless and easy and quick.
Could you give this podcast a five star review?
If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, if you want to leave
a nice comment under the review section, it can be as simple as,
hey, I enjoy listening to these insights each day.
Boom, that would mean a lot helpus get our our rating up and
(17:35):
five star reviews up and then, of course, if you want to click
the follow button, get alerted as soon as it drops each day or
recommend the pod to a friend orfamily member or fellow better
that'll be awesome as well. Next, if you enjoy the style of
betting breakdown, notice we don't talk.
You know you know what we think will happen.
We hope what we expect what we want to happen.
(17:55):
We don't talk parlays because they're hand out to the book.
We just grind flat data-driven bets.
So if this style of betting by monitoring the market, picking
up on the context clues, paying attention to line movement, bet
split system matches, if this style betting has kind of piqued
your interest, you've kind of seen the fruits, the labor of it
a bit. You want to learn more about
data-driven betting. Well, guess what, I would love
(18:17):
for you to go to Amazon.com and type in the everything guide to
sports betting. That's the first book ever
wrote. I'm very proud of it.
It's great for new betters or for kind of intermediate
betters. We're looking for more, you
know, more tips and strategies and systems.
If you want to pick up the everything guide, it's got
everything I've learned in the industry.
How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
(18:38):
movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place the bet in
person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
a bankroll management plan. All that is included in the
everything guide to sports betting.
So while you're picking up the everything guide, stay on
Amazon.com and then pre-order a new copy, a brand new copy of my
new book, the NFL Sharp Betting playbook.
(18:59):
It comes out August 12th. I can't believe it.
We're basically two weeks away, which is 2 weeks and one day
away. It comes out Tuesday, August
12th. If you want to get a leg up on
your NFL handicapping, if you want to support the pod, if you
want to check out what I've beenworking on day and night for
over three years at this point, I would love for you guys to to
pre-order a copy of the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook.
(19:21):
And when you bring the Sharp Betting Playbook in the NFL or
the Everything Guide to sports betting to the sports book, I'll
sign them for you. I'll buy a beer or ginger ale,
or truly, I'll sweat some of these baseball games together
next. Have you downloaded Rhythm and
Juice Reel yet? Well, if you haven't, what are
you waiting for? My two favorite sports betting
apps. They're all data-driven, which
is right up our alley. Rhythm obviously does a great
(19:42):
job powering this pod, providingus game bets and player props
and power trends for baseball and for WNBA right now.
But pretty soon we're going to have football and basketball
back. Cannot wait for that.
And I do have hopefully next week in announcement when it
comes to rhythm because we got something pretty big planned for
this upcoming fall. And then also Juice Reel got to
(20:03):
go download Juice Reel, another great sports betting app.
Here we go. I'm passing the hat.
This pod is free. If you enjoy the pod, if you
value the insights, I'd love foryou to drop in a $5.00 bill or
$4.99 to be exact. And but with that 5 bucks you're
going to sign up for the All Systems Go official best bet
picks, which you can get exclusively and only on the
Juice Reel app. So you can click that link I put
(20:25):
out each day on Twitter at Josh under score Insights.
Or you can just go to the buy buy, sell tab, bottom right, go
to I think it's buy, click and search ASG under score podcast.
Boom, you can have a 7 day free trial and then stick around and
follow the place for $4.99 a week.
Again, basically a cup of coffeeand hopefully you feel like the
(20:47):
podcasts are worth $0.99 of insights each day.
I would like to think that they are worth much more than that.
But anyway, you're also going toget the row with Jackson Best
bet picks, the sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays,
the shop for the best sign features.
Sync up your sports books to theapp.
All included when you download Juice Reel.
So download Juice Reel and download Rhythm.
You'll be off and running makingsharp data-driven plays.
(21:11):
Lastly, do you have a live odds page?
Well, if you don't, you need onebecause it is such an important
tool when it comes to being a data-driven sports better
because pretty obvious pretty simple.
You got you need data to make tomake smart bets.
You need to know all the games being played that day.
What games can I bet on Which ones can I choose from What are
the start times live scoring when the game gets going live
(21:34):
lines. I love sweating my my games and
having the odds Logic live odds page in front of me because it
updates as the game is going on.So I can see, hey, I bet this
team -130 they're now -400 on the live on.
That's a good thing. Or maybe it's the other way and
I get nervous or maybe there's ain game wagering opportunity.
But Odds Logic is the best live odds page around.
You're going to get all the opening numbers, the current
(21:55):
prices across the market. You can easily see which
direction the line is moving. You can pull up the line
history. You can of course identify
Steam. As soon as any odds change, they
get lit up in red. So if you have see one odds for
corresponding for a specific team or total all get lit up in
red, you know, that's that's getting hit.
It's moving. So again, there's a lot of live
odds pages out there, but I'd love for you guys to try out
(22:17):
odds logic. I hope you know, I wouldn't, you
know, tout for something that I don't believe in myself.
I use it every day. It is a great live odds page and
it's really not that expensive. It's it is 99 bucks a month.
If you want to keep it long term, I think there's long term
rates. So you can save some money as
well. But if you use this link
oddslogic.com/josh 123, you'll get 70 free trial 50% off your
(22:43):
first month. Then you can make sure you like
it. But it is a great piece of
information that I use everyday and I think you guys will enjoy
it as well. Again, that's Odds
logic.com/josh 123. So that about does it for
episode 324 of the ASG Pod finalweek here in the month of July
and get get ready. It's about to get crazy with
(23:04):
football returning, but we wouldn't have it any other way.
Lastly, I'll leave you with two final thoughts.
Whether I see you at the Borgatain Atlantic City, Twin River in
Rhode Island, the Brook in New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
Sundown in Connecticut, at the Encore in Boston, or Plain Ridge
Park Casino or MGM Springfield and my neck of the woods in
Massachusetts. Or out in the desert where the
true grinders get down. Or Billy Walters sends his
(23:26):
number runners where the lowest true as possible is found at the
South Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
plays jumping in the stadium swim pool.
When you catch a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
hopefully you're going to show me couple winners from tonight,
Yankees, Red Sox, Giants. First one's on me, next one's on
you. We'll post about the book and
sweat some baseball games together tonight.
(23:46):
As always guys, whether we're coming off a great three and O
day or a terrible O and three day 2 and one, one and two, hot,
cold, somewhere in the middle. We just got to keep grinding
when we're hot or don't get cocky and arrogant whenever as
good as we think when we're bad and struggling, don't get down
on yourself. Don't get don't get depressed
and feel like you're never goingto win again.
You just got to keep knocking atthe door making smart plays.
(24:09):
And that that of course, it's kind of a long game that we try
to play. But in the end, guys are making
bets with our head and not our heart.
And we're trying to find games that fit our model, which goes a
little something like this against the public, with the
house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that CLV if
we can do that, and I'm pretty confident that we can.
And guess what, we're going to be successful sports betters
(24:30):
long term. So have a great money on
everybody. Hope you had a great weekend as
well. I will see you guys tomorrow for
episode 325 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
great Monday night.
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