July 29, 2025 • 26 mins
In Episode 325, Josh dishes out a 3-pack of MLB plays for Tuesday night. Plus, Josh explains a chapter-by-chapter breakdown of his new book, the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook, which comes out 2 weeks from today!
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Josh's new book "The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook" comes out on August 12, 2025
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:19):
Hello, and welcome to episode 325 of the All Systems Go sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena,
(00:39):
guys. Only a few days left in the
month of July. We got today, Wednesday,
Thursday, Thursday. We do have the NFL Hall of Fame
game as I mentioned on yesterday's pod, so who knows,
might have a play on that or not.
But I did see today we found outwho the starting quarterback for
the LA Chargers will be. Nope, it's not Justin Herbert,
Trey Lance, Raise your hand if you knew Trey Lance was on the
(01:00):
Chargers. We did get that piece of info.
We're still holding pretty steady.
Detroit minus one 1 1/2 total ofaround 32 and a half 33.
So we'll keep an eye on that. But as the month of of July here
kind of winds down, that means we're one day closer to the
release of my second book. The NFL Sharp Betting playbook
(01:21):
comes out August 12th. That's exactly, I'm not great at
math, but that's exactly 2 weeksfrom today, August 12th, 2025.
And I'm actually holding in my hand the NFL Sharp Betting
Playbook because I got a couple of boxes.
The cool thing about being an author is when you have a book
that's gets released, usually they will give you, you know,
like a carton of, you know, fifty 100 bucks.
(01:42):
So triumph was nice enough to send me my share of books and
I've been starting to hand them out to my family members and
some of my friends. But I wanted to kind of let you
guys know. And again, I'm not going to give
you any spoilers or anything, but I wanted to give you a quick
rundown of the chapters in the book because I just figured,
hey, hopefully you guys have some interest in buying a copy.
It's only 24 bucks. You can pre-order it on
(02:03):
Amazon.com right now. I would love for you guys to do
that because it would make me happy, make Triumph folks, my
publisher happy. But just to kind of get you
thinking about the book and get you excited for the NFL season,
I wanted to list the 10 chaptersin the book so you have a little
bit of an idea of kind of what you're getting when you purchase
a copy of the book. So Chapter 1, the basics of
(02:24):
sports betting, we all got to start somewhere, tells you about
how a sports book works, settingthe line, favorites versus dog
spread, money, line total in thejuice, pretty standard.
You have to have that foundationof sports betting if you're able
to, especially for new betters, kind of create that philosophy,
that foundation and then work kind of beyond that.
Chapter 2, know what you're getting into and in parentheses
(02:46):
and what you're up against. So I talked about luck,
randomness, the human element, the house edge, the magic
number, keeping your emotions incheck.
Don't bet like a fan, ignore thenoise.
Recency bias, confirmation bias,gambler's fallacy.
So I'm kind of in each chapter 2, I have like kind of an
opening paragraph where I kind of make some sort of kind of
like a, you know, not an allegory, but some sort of, I
(03:10):
would guess you could call it ananalogy or a comparison.
So I was talking about in the 2nd chapter how if you remember
in Men in Black, the neuralizer,that little thing that they'll,
you know, kind of flash in frontof your, in front of your face
looks like the pen. And then it kind of just erases
your brain. Well, that chapter 2 is about
erasing your brain because a lotof people have expectations
going into betting, but they don't really know what it's
(03:31):
like. So it kind of sets the
foundation for you. Chapter 3, bankroll management,
define your bankroll. How much should you bet per
game? Flat betting.
When to adjust your unit size? Bettress first bet to win
Limiting your number of plays. Don't chase.
Avoid parlays. Same game parlays.
Don't buy picks Don't buy points.
So we're defining A bankroll. Chapter 4.
(03:52):
One of my favorites. Contrarian betting.
What is contrarian betting? The method to the madness.
Rooting for the sports books. Who's the public?
The public loves favorites. Dogs, home teams, overs shaded
inflated lines, contrarians, dogs, Rd. teams and unders.
How to go contrarian trust but verify lean on bet splits How to
interpret bet splits Buy low sell high Embrace fishy lines
(04:15):
Wrong team is favored. No it's not one of my favorites.
Bet against American the expertsfade your non sports betting
friends. Contrarian sweet spots primetime
dogs Primetime wonders Fade the trendy dog in the future of
contrarian betting chapter 5 follow sharp action.
Another one of my faves. Who are the sharps?
Sharps have inside info. Sharps bet numbers, not teams.
(04:36):
Expected value and implied probability.
Sometimes sharps lose, Sharps get limited, sharps get the best
numbers. I have a section on Jimmy the
Greek and Billy Walters and thenwhat I really like.
How to identify sharp action RLMsteam moves, line freeze,
Bedford's dollar discrepancies, 5050 line moves.
Chapter 6 NFL betting concepts. So we're getting into the nitty
(04:58):
gritty here. Closing line value key numbers
teasers TS through key numbers look headlines middling hedging
arbitrage live betting live linefavorites that get down early
live line unders after early scoring Chapter 7 NFL betting
systems tips and strategies. So the difference between trends
and betting systems and then I get into all my favorite betting
(05:20):
systems. Rd. dogs divisional dogs dogs
off a blowout loss windy unders unders that fall how to create a
betting system and then we get into the nitty gritty of
metamorphosis of a line game daymovement dog to fave line moves
on my faves always money line short favorites schedule spots
week one week two Thursday NightFootball rest first tired by
(05:41):
weeks chapter 8 how to bet online and in person.
Now it's starting to create thisfoundation and now you actually
want to place a bet. The rise of online betting live
odds page, Shop for the best line Twitter and injury reports
how to bet online bet tracking app how to bet in person and
what to say at the window. Chapter 9 Other ways to bet the
NFL. Now we're getting into all the
(06:03):
other supplementary opportunities.
Player props AI and sports betting betting the preseason
information based bets, first half money lines Hall of Fame
game coming up here soon International series
Thanksgiving Day Week 18 go contrarian in the playoffs, How
to bet the Super Bowl, how to bet Super Bowl props NFL draft
betting tips win totals and thenchapter 10.
(06:25):
It's called stick to the playbook, the rookie crossroads
be a decider in chief and a competitor.
Perform autopsies on your bets. The importance of mental
toughness, next bet mentality. It's all about the data, the
final checklist, check off all the boxes, when to place your
bet, how to sweat your bet, the gateway to other sports and
finally, the final word. Then you get acknowledgements
(06:46):
and a little bit about the author.
So that's what you can expect from the NFL sharp betting
playbook. I just, you know, rambled off
the 10 chapters and all the different topics, but really I'm
proud of this because it kind ofjust provides A blueprint how to
bet the, you know, most popular sport in the world, which of
course is the NFL and not from ayeah, public bias there.
This team is due yadda, yadda. No, from a data-driven
(07:09):
perspective. So if you want to get a leg up
on the NFL, if you want to checkout, you know, or get prepared
to get that NFL sharpening playbook shipped to you as soon
as it comes out August 12th. That's kind of what you can
expect here. I'll just give you a quickly the
write up on the back the ultimate guide to betting like a
pro. Sports betting is one of the
fastest growing and most lucrative industries in America
(07:30):
today, generating an eye popping150 billion in bets and 14
billion in revenue in 2024 alone.
In the NFL is the most heavily bet sport by far.
With legalized betting in 39 States and more to come in the
future, millions of Americans are looking to get in on the
action for the first time. But where do they begin?
The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook is an honest, no nonsense, soup
(07:51):
to nuts guide on how to win betting, America's most popular
sport. From basic terminology to the
finer points of examining matchups, you'll learn how to
interpret line movement and bet splits.
Go contrarian, identify sharp action, Build and manage a
bankroll. Follow winning betting systems,
Shop for the best line bet in person and online.
Bet player props, live lines, teasers, win totals, the
(08:12):
preseason, playoff, Super Bowl and more betting.
This is kind of funny because it's me.
Betting expert Josh Applebaum takes you through the insurance
and outs of sports betting, teaching you how to leave your
biases at the door and make sharp, data-driven bets with
your head and not your heart. Wagering a little scratch on
your favorite team to win is fun, but cashing your bet, now
that's a win. So there you go.
(08:33):
Just wanted to, I don't know, start the hype.
We're two weeks out, but that's a little bit of insight into the
NFL sharp betting playbook, which again, you can make my day
by purchasing or pre ordering a copy.
I should say on Amazon.com. Now that being said, guys, I do
have a three pack of sweats for you today.
No NFL, even though we mentionedthe Hall of Fame game.
I do have 3 plays in MLB. Of course, you know the drill.
(08:54):
Let's try to go 2 in one each out of winning day.
Unfortunately, looking toward yesterday, one of the most
frustrating nights, I would say in in quite a while.
O and 3 -, 3 units. So nearly a golden sombrero,
though that's O and four striking out four times with the
Yankees let us down. Couldn't get anything going
offensively. The Giants, we got some CLV, got
a -130 they close like -135 theylose by one run.
(09:18):
But the one that really hurt wasthe Red Sox, because I was
watching that game and the Red Sox had a four to three lead
going into the bottom of the ninth.
And then the, the baseball gods,the, the, you know, the, the sky
opens up, it starts pouring. There's a rain delay for an hour
and a half. They start the bottom of the
ninth at like midnight. And Jordan Hicks, who their Sox
got in a trade recently with forRaphael Devers, he gives a base
(09:41):
hit, hits 2 guys in a row and then gives up the, you know, the
game losing if you're Red Sox better like me, game-winning, I
guess for the Twins to run single.
So blowing a lead in the ninth, not fun.
Red Sox hurt not only the game yesterday, but for the win total
could use that win for the over 85 1/2.
But you know what that's that's betting.
(10:03):
Sometimes it happens. So we're going to stick to the
model, stick to the blueprint. See if we can get some revenge
here for tonight. So that being said, 3 pack of
plays, let's dive right in first.
But on the board for me, 7:10 PMEastern Time, first pitch.
Let's go to Cincinnati where theRed Legs are hosting the LA
Dodgers now going in and we got the Dodgers 62 and 45 on the
(10:24):
year. They won last night's series
opener. 5 to 2. Cruised as a -150 Rd. favorite
rematch for tonight. The Dodgers are going with the
ready Tyler Glass Now he's one and one 2.75 ERA Reds who are 56
and 51. They're going to go with the
lefty Nick Lodolo. He's 8 and six with a
three-point O 8 ERA. So what we've seen across the
(10:44):
market here, well, this game opened LA around a -, 145 -. 150
Rd. favorite Cincinnati around a+ 130 home dog.
And it looks to me like wise guys, based on the market move
are going with the Dodgers here to keep it rolling.
Because we've seen the Dodgers creep up -145 -, 150 up to -155
(11:04):
- 160. It's not a massive move, not a
10/20/30 cent steam move. We do have about 5 or up to
$0.10 a movement in favor of theDodgers.
Now in the importance of shopping for the best line.
I got dodgers -150 at BET MGM, still available at -150, but
again, other books are -155 -, 160.
But to continue the cap here, itreally jumped out to me of the
(11:26):
Dodgers, not just a a huge move,a smallish move, but the bet
splits. They look really good on LA at
Circa out in Vegas where they really pride themselves on
taking in smart money. But in Vegas at Circa, the
Dodgers are getting 60% of moneyline bets, but nearly 90% of
money line dollars. So it tells me those bigger
wagers out in the desert leaningpretty heavily here on the
(11:48):
Dodgers system match for me favorites off a win with a
winning record who made the playoffs the previous year
getting at least $0.05 of line movement in their favor.
Now it's kind of a mouthful for that system is 127 and 5769
percent 7% ROI this year. Dodgers would have that betting
system value non division favorite lack of familiarity
(12:09):
benefiting quote UN quote the better team who's expected to
win whole bank on the Dodgers offense hopefully getting to low
Dolo. They are on the year hitting two
54161 homers, 561 runs scored Reds hitting two 46109 homers,
487 runs scored. Tyler Glass.
Now in particular, remember theymade a trade with the Tampa Bay
(12:32):
Rays and signed into a big deal.When he's healthy, he's great,
but he's almost always hurt. However, he did just get come
back from the injured list and he's made three starts and he
has an ERA. In those three starts of one,
he's given up two earned runs and 18 innings pitched.
And in night games this season he has a 0.82 ERA.
So banking on hopefully Glass now pitching well.
(12:54):
By the way, Lodolo on the road, he's been kind of unhittable,
2.23 ERA, but at home, 4.17 ERA.So we got a little bit of
movement toward the Dodgers. We got a great bet split, good
system match, better bats, and hopefully Glass now greater than
Lodolo. So first play on the other night
for me guys, I got the dodgers -150 at BET MGM again.
(13:16):
Shop around cuz some books are closer to -155 -, 160 Next step
for you. Let's get some revenge in the
Twin City. Boston Red Sox at the Minnesota
Twins, 7:40 PM Eastern Time, First pitch.
The Twins don't remind me. 51 and 55 won last night's series
opener 5 to 4. Walked it off in the bottom of
(13:36):
the ninth as a -, 110 home pick em.
I really can't get over how thatrain delay really screwed the
Red Sox again. Whatever, gotta let it go.
In tonight's matchup, the Red Sox were 57 and 51.
They're going to go with the ready Lucas Giolito.
He's six and two with a 3.97 ERAon the year.
Twins, meanwhile, are going withPearson OHL, OHL.
(13:57):
Pearson OHL, great name, but he's making his Major League
Baseball debut. Pearson OHL was a 14th round
draft pick in 2021. He has done pretty well in the
minors this year. Five and two, 2.17 ERA.
What have we seen across the market again, always notable to
me when you're going up against the rookie starting pitcher
making his debut. This game opened at basically
(14:20):
pick em get a lot of shops open minus one O 5 both sides -110
both sides somewhere slight Red Sox -115 Rd. favorite.
But either way, we've seen this line move further toward Boston
Red Sox now up to -120 even -125across the market.
And that did coincide with this kid Pearson old being announced
(14:40):
as a starter. So when Oles announced the
starter, further movement towardthe Red Sox, that tells me pro
batters hit the Red Sox wanted to fade this pitcher making his
debut. Now if you look at the bet
splits, they look pretty good onBoston both at DraftKings and
Circa. At DK Big National Book we have
71% of money line bets, 93% of money line dollars on the Sox
(15:02):
circus got 75% of bets, 85% of dollars on Boston.
So you have a low bets, higher dollar sharp split at both
DraftKings and Circa. I do have a few system matches
on the Red Sox. Rd. favorites off a loss getting
$0.10 of steam or more in their favor, they're 57 and 3165
percent, 9% ROI this year. Also short Rd. favorites -130 or
(15:25):
less off a loss, playing an opponent off a win, they're 60
and 4060 percent, 10% ROI. Red Sox do have that same non
division favorite value. Lack of familiarity benefiting
quote UN quote the better team and going to bank on the bats of
the Red Sox, hopefully lighting up this poor kid making his
debut. Red Sox rating 252 on the year,
(15:47):
131 home runs, 524 runs scored. Twins hitting two, 41122 homers,
445 runs scored. And G Alito, who the Red Sox
signed a couple years ago. When he was hurt or he was
healthy and then he got hurt andmissed the entire year, I
thought it was kind of a bad signing.
But he's actually kind of done alittle bit better this year.
(16:07):
He's three and one with a 3.3 OERA on the road this year, and
he's 10 and three or the Red Soxare 10 and three and his last 13
starts. So you've seen some pretty good,
pretty good performance by Boston when G Alito takes the
bump. So you had it all up here, guys.
We got a pick em to fave line, move on Boston, Good splits.
(16:28):
Let's fade a rookie starting pitcher.
We got the Red Sox at -118 at FanDuel again.
Shop around because some books are -120 -, 125 last night of
the night. Let's go out to sunny San Diego,
where the Padres are hosting theNew York Mets. 9:40 PM Eastern
Time, first pitch. Now, the pods, who are 58 and
49, they won last night's seriesopener seven to six, came
(16:51):
through as a -130 home favorite.They got down big in that game
and came back. My old friend Xander Bogarts, I
don't know him personally, but used to play for the Sox.
He's finally turning around playing better for the pods
because that contract doesn't look great right now.
Anyway, tonight's rematch, the Mets were 62 and 45.
They're going with the lefty Sean Manaya one and one 2.19 ERA
(17:12):
this year. Padres, meanwhile, going at the
ready, Ryan Berger one and O 3.84 ERA.
So what is seen across the market here?
Well, this game opened with the Mets, a very short -115 Rd.
favorite San Diego around a -, 1O 5 home, home dog.
And we've seen nothing but movement on the Metropolitans.
Mets have gotten steamed up -115now up to -125 again.
(17:35):
Some shops now as high as -130 So pretty good one way movement
in favor of New York. We do have the Mets with some
pretty good splits in their favor at DraftKings. 64% bets
73% dollars at Circa. 57% bets over 90% of dollars on the Mets.
So I was like it when both DraftKings and Circa kind of
(17:56):
have that same low bets, higher dollar split.
Tells you smart money nationallyand out in Vegas.
Kind of in the same agreement there.
Short Rd. favorites -130 or lessoff a loss, playing an opponent
off a win. Again, same system that just
matched with Boston. 60 and 4060percent, 10% ROI this year.
We do have that non division favorite value.
Lack of familiarity benefiting the team is expected to win the
(18:19):
Mets. Also, hopefully their bats can
light up Burger tonight because they are hitting 135 or have hit
135 homers this year, scored 472runs.
Podges have hit only 90 homers and scored 433 runs.
Manaya is a big part of the cap for me.
He was injured pretty much the entire year.
Just got activated earlier this month.
(18:41):
He's made three starts. He's only given up 1 earned run
in all three starts. So hopefully he pitches well
against San Diego and then also Berger 5.19 ERA at home versus
he's been better on the road. 1.96 CRA.
But we got this line moving further toward the Mets.
Good splits, good system match back in Manaya.
(19:02):
Hopefully he will pitch well forus tonight and see if the Mets
can get some revenge after they kind of blew a bigger lead last
night. But you got it all up, guys.
I got Mets -125 Shop around. Looks like Fanduel's the best
price -126 but we do have some books as high as -130 so
Dodgers, Red Sox, Mets, see if we can get 2 out of 3 eke out a
(19:24):
winning night. Of course, you know that is the
goal. So that about does it for
episode 325 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
powered by Rhythm. This is the part of pod where we
wrap things up, put a bow and ribbon on the pod by saying a
few words and leave you with a couple places to go to links and
things to think about. But I first want to say thank
you. Thank you for listening to the
(19:45):
pod. Tuning in, grinding obviously
through the dog days of summer, but taking the time out of your
busy summers to tune in and listen to some sharp breakdowns
really means a lot to me. If you do want to help me
continue to grow the pod and if you haven't done it yet, would
you please consider giving this podcast a five star review on
Spotify or iTunes go a long way to helping us to continue to
(20:07):
grow the pod. If you want to leave a nice
comment or click the follow button on the podcast page or
recommend the pod to a friend orcolleague or family member, I'd
very much appreciate that as well.
Next. If you enjoy the style of
betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp contrarian betting, again,
we're making sharp bets. Sometimes they don't come
(20:27):
through, but we're playing the long game.
We know that if we stick to the data-driven model long term,
we're going to grind out a profit as long as the, you know,
Red Sox bullpen doesn't blow forus anyway.
If you want to learn more about data-driven betting or you know
someone in your life who could use some data-driven tips, maybe
they're new to betting or maybe they bet a lot and just bet with
their heart and they keep losingand you know they don't know how
(20:48):
to change it. Well, less heart Morehead, how
about that? If you want to learn more about
data-driven betting, I would love for you guys to go to
Amazon.com and type in the Everything Guide to Sports
betting. That's the first book ever
wrote. It's everything I've learned in
the industry. How lines are set, how and why
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
(21:10):
for the best line, how to set upa bankroll management plan, all
included in the Everything Guideto Sports betting.
As I mentioned to start the pod,my new book, the NFL Sharp
Betting Playbook comes out two weeks from today.
If you would like to pre-order acopy, you'll make me very, very
happy. And it's not just charity,
you're going to get something out of it too.
You're going to get all the latest insights that I have been
(21:31):
spending three years putting together pen to paper or I guess
typing on Microsoft Word. You know what the word count was
for this book? 200,000.
So if you want to write up 300 and I think it's 307 page book,
it's about 200,000 words. But anyway, pick up a copy of
the everything guide, the NFL sharp betting playbook.
Bring him to the sports book. I'll sign him for you.
(21:51):
I'll buy you the buy you a beer or ginger ale or maybe maybe a
couple shots after last night, if we can turn it around.
I got a cowboy up anyway. And again, first one's on me,
next one's on you. We'll sweat some games here at
the book tonight. Next.
Have you downloaded rhythm and juice reel yet?
Well, if you haven't, what are you waiting for?
Again? We're about to get to the busy
(22:12):
part of the year with football returning and you got to have a
couple apps to lean on help you cap some games.
The first one of course is Rhythm who does a great job of
powering this pod providing us AI backed models for game bets
and player props. And then we also have Juice
Reel. I'm going to pass the hat.
This pod is free, it cost you nothing.
If you'd like to contribute to the pod tip, your podcast host,
(22:33):
I'd love for you guys to do it in the form of signing up to get
the all systems go best bet picks on the Juice Reel app.
It cost $4.99 a week, 5 bucks tosupport the pod.
But really you're getting these plays earlier.
So if you'll beat some closing lines and get some better
numbers, which again, big in baseball, but wait until we get
to spread sports, you're going to want that plus 3 1/2 dog
(22:53):
hook, not the plus three. But you'll get the ASG pod best
bets exclusively and only on Juice Reel.
You'll also get the Robo Jacksonbest bet picks, the sharp mush
indicators, the arbitrage plays,the shop for the best line
futures, all located inside of the Juice Reel app.
So download Juice Reel, downloadRhythm, give a five star review
in the App Store. It'll be off and running with a
(23:15):
couple great data-driven apps. Next, do you have a live odds
page? Well, if you don't, you need one
because you got to know some basic things.
If you're a data-driven better. What are the games on tap for
today? Start times, live scoring, live
in game wagering odds. If you want to look at a a live
line opportunity, of course you got to know what the lines
opened at, how they've moved shop for the best price.
(23:37):
Identify steam when a team's getting hit, get pop up
notifications for injuries, final score, stuff like that.
Those are all key pieces of information that you need to be
a day driven better and you can get them all when you sign up
and get a membership with Odds Logic.
So give Odds Logic a shot with a7 day free trial, 50% off your
first month just by going to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
(24:03):
Got to have the slash Josh 123 at the end to get that excuse
me, get that 7 day free trial and 50% off your first month of
service. So that about does it for
today's pod. Hopefully on a bounce back
Tuesday after I got to tell you a frustrating night last night
Sox blowing it G men losing again to the Pirates.
What are you doing? Yankees doing nothing against
Tampa Bay. You can tell him a little little
(24:24):
little fired up today. That's that's what baseball's
going to do to you. As they always say.
What is it whiskey and a revolver.
Well, we needed it last night. But anyway, of course I'll leave
you with two final thoughts, whether I see you at the Borgata
in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook in New
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut, at the
Encore in Boston, Plainridge Park Casino, MGM Springfield,
(24:45):
the Nash. Or of course, out in the desert
where the true grinders get downor Billy Walter sends his number
runners with Lois. True as possible is found at the
South Point. Or Sweat and sharp contrarian
plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool when they catch a
big ticket at Circa. You're going to walk up to me.
You're going to show me Yankees,Red Sox and Giants.
We're going to RIP them up and we're going to put them in the
(25:05):
recycle bin. If you have the option of the
trash and the recycle and they're right next to each
other, just put in the recycle. There's nothing wrong with that.
But anyway, hopefully we can getsome winters here for tonight
and sweat out some some tickets that can hopefully be cashed for
tonight as well. But anyway, guys, O and three,
three and O2 and one one and two.
Hot, cold off a terrible night off a great night.
(25:28):
Feel like we're invincible because we're running hot or
feel like we can't hit the forest amongst the trees when
we're cold. Just got to stick with it
because sports betting, it's like a roller coaster.
There's ups and downs. You're going to see the highest,
the highest lowest, the lowest. But one thing you can't you
can't control the outcome. One thing you can't control is
just grinding the model and making smart decisions, which is
(25:49):
big part of the final chapter inmy book.
So I won't I won't spoil it, butthere's a couple kind of
anecdotes that always speak to me and anytime I have a bad
night or you know, kind of struggling here.
But anyway, guys, we got to stick to the model, stick to the
blueprint. If we do that, I know we're
going to be successful long term.
You know what it is by now against the public, with the
house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that closing
(26:11):
line value. If we can do that, we're going
to be successful betters. So have a great Tuesday night,
everyone. Hopefully the gambling gods give
us some revenge here for tonight.
But either either way, win, loseor draw, we'll be right back at
it tomorrow, grinding once againon a big Wednesday edition.
That'll be episode 326 of the All Systems Go sports Betting
podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
(26:34):
great Tuesday night.
Hello, and welcome to episode 325 of the All Systems Go sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena,
(00:39):
guys. Only a few days left in the
month of July. We got today, Wednesday,
Thursday, Thursday. We do have the NFL Hall of Fame
game as I mentioned on yesterday's pod, so who knows,
might have a play on that or not.
But I did see today we found outwho the starting quarterback for
the LA Chargers will be. Nope, it's not Justin Herbert,
Trey Lance, Raise your hand if you knew Trey Lance was on the
(01:00):
Chargers. We did get that piece of info.
We're still holding pretty steady.
Detroit minus one 1 1/2 total ofaround 32 and a half 33.
So we'll keep an eye on that. But as the month of of July here
kind of winds down, that means we're one day closer to the
release of my second book. The NFL Sharp Betting playbook
(01:21):
comes out August 12th. That's exactly, I'm not great at
math, but that's exactly 2 weeksfrom today, August 12th, 2025.
And I'm actually holding in my hand the NFL Sharp Betting
Playbook because I got a couple of boxes.
The cool thing about being an author is when you have a book
that's gets released, usually they will give you, you know,
like a carton of, you know, fifty 100 bucks.
(01:42):
So triumph was nice enough to send me my share of books and
I've been starting to hand them out to my family members and
some of my friends. But I wanted to kind of let you
guys know. And again, I'm not going to give
you any spoilers or anything, but I wanted to give you a quick
rundown of the chapters in the book because I just figured,
hey, hopefully you guys have some interest in buying a copy.
It's only 24 bucks. You can pre-order it on
(02:03):
Amazon.com right now. I would love for you guys to do
that because it would make me happy, make Triumph folks, my
publisher happy. But just to kind of get you
thinking about the book and get you excited for the NFL season,
I wanted to list the 10 chaptersin the book so you have a little
bit of an idea of kind of what you're getting when you purchase
a copy of the book. So Chapter 1, the basics of
(02:24):
sports betting, we all got to start somewhere, tells you about
how a sports book works, settingthe line, favorites versus dog
spread, money, line total in thejuice, pretty standard.
You have to have that foundationof sports betting if you're able
to, especially for new betters, kind of create that philosophy,
that foundation and then work kind of beyond that.
Chapter 2, know what you're getting into and in parentheses
(02:46):
and what you're up against. So I talked about luck,
randomness, the human element, the house edge, the magic
number, keeping your emotions incheck.
Don't bet like a fan, ignore thenoise.
Recency bias, confirmation bias,gambler's fallacy.
So I'm kind of in each chapter 2, I have like kind of an
opening paragraph where I kind of make some sort of kind of
like a, you know, not an allegory, but some sort of, I
(03:10):
would guess you could call it ananalogy or a comparison.
So I was talking about in the 2nd chapter how if you remember
in Men in Black, the neuralizer,that little thing that they'll,
you know, kind of flash in frontof your, in front of your face
looks like the pen. And then it kind of just erases
your brain. Well, that chapter 2 is about
erasing your brain because a lotof people have expectations
going into betting, but they don't really know what it's
(03:31):
like. So it kind of sets the
foundation for you. Chapter 3, bankroll management,
define your bankroll. How much should you bet per
game? Flat betting.
When to adjust your unit size? Bettress first bet to win
Limiting your number of plays. Don't chase.
Avoid parlays. Same game parlays.
Don't buy picks Don't buy points.
So we're defining A bankroll. Chapter 4.
(03:52):
One of my favorites. Contrarian betting.
What is contrarian betting? The method to the madness.
Rooting for the sports books. Who's the public?
The public loves favorites. Dogs, home teams, overs shaded
inflated lines, contrarians, dogs, Rd. teams and unders.
How to go contrarian trust but verify lean on bet splits How to
interpret bet splits Buy low sell high Embrace fishy lines
(04:15):
Wrong team is favored. No it's not one of my favorites.
Bet against American the expertsfade your non sports betting
friends. Contrarian sweet spots primetime
dogs Primetime wonders Fade the trendy dog in the future of
contrarian betting chapter 5 follow sharp action.
Another one of my faves. Who are the sharps?
Sharps have inside info. Sharps bet numbers, not teams.
(04:36):
Expected value and implied probability.
Sometimes sharps lose, Sharps get limited, sharps get the best
numbers. I have a section on Jimmy the
Greek and Billy Walters and thenwhat I really like.
How to identify sharp action RLMsteam moves, line freeze,
Bedford's dollar discrepancies, 5050 line moves.
Chapter 6 NFL betting concepts. So we're getting into the nitty
(04:58):
gritty here. Closing line value key numbers
teasers TS through key numbers look headlines middling hedging
arbitrage live betting live linefavorites that get down early
live line unders after early scoring Chapter 7 NFL betting
systems tips and strategies. So the difference between trends
and betting systems and then I get into all my favorite betting
(05:20):
systems. Rd. dogs divisional dogs dogs
off a blowout loss windy unders unders that fall how to create a
betting system and then we get into the nitty gritty of
metamorphosis of a line game daymovement dog to fave line moves
on my faves always money line short favorites schedule spots
week one week two Thursday NightFootball rest first tired by
(05:41):
weeks chapter 8 how to bet online and in person.
Now it's starting to create thisfoundation and now you actually
want to place a bet. The rise of online betting live
odds page, Shop for the best line Twitter and injury reports
how to bet online bet tracking app how to bet in person and
what to say at the window. Chapter 9 Other ways to bet the
NFL. Now we're getting into all the
(06:03):
other supplementary opportunities.
Player props AI and sports betting betting the preseason
information based bets, first half money lines Hall of Fame
game coming up here soon International series
Thanksgiving Day Week 18 go contrarian in the playoffs, How
to bet the Super Bowl, how to bet Super Bowl props NFL draft
betting tips win totals and thenchapter 10.
(06:25):
It's called stick to the playbook, the rookie crossroads
be a decider in chief and a competitor.
Perform autopsies on your bets. The importance of mental
toughness, next bet mentality. It's all about the data, the
final checklist, check off all the boxes, when to place your
bet, how to sweat your bet, the gateway to other sports and
finally, the final word. Then you get acknowledgements
(06:46):
and a little bit about the author.
So that's what you can expect from the NFL sharp betting
playbook. I just, you know, rambled off
the 10 chapters and all the different topics, but really I'm
proud of this because it kind ofjust provides A blueprint how to
bet the, you know, most popular sport in the world, which of
course is the NFL and not from ayeah, public bias there.
This team is due yadda, yadda. No, from a data-driven
(07:09):
perspective. So if you want to get a leg up
on the NFL, if you want to checkout, you know, or get prepared
to get that NFL sharpening playbook shipped to you as soon
as it comes out August 12th. That's kind of what you can
expect here. I'll just give you a quickly the
write up on the back the ultimate guide to betting like a
pro. Sports betting is one of the
fastest growing and most lucrative industries in America
(07:30):
today, generating an eye popping150 billion in bets and 14
billion in revenue in 2024 alone.
In the NFL is the most heavily bet sport by far.
With legalized betting in 39 States and more to come in the
future, millions of Americans are looking to get in on the
action for the first time. But where do they begin?
The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook is an honest, no nonsense, soup
(07:51):
to nuts guide on how to win betting, America's most popular
sport. From basic terminology to the
finer points of examining matchups, you'll learn how to
interpret line movement and bet splits.
Go contrarian, identify sharp action, Build and manage a
bankroll. Follow winning betting systems,
Shop for the best line bet in person and online.
Bet player props, live lines, teasers, win totals, the
(08:12):
preseason, playoff, Super Bowl and more betting.
This is kind of funny because it's me.
Betting expert Josh Applebaum takes you through the insurance
and outs of sports betting, teaching you how to leave your
biases at the door and make sharp, data-driven bets with
your head and not your heart. Wagering a little scratch on
your favorite team to win is fun, but cashing your bet, now
that's a win. So there you go.
(08:33):
Just wanted to, I don't know, start the hype.
We're two weeks out, but that's a little bit of insight into the
NFL sharp betting playbook, which again, you can make my day
by purchasing or pre ordering a copy.
I should say on Amazon.com. Now that being said, guys, I do
have a three pack of sweats for you today.
No NFL, even though we mentionedthe Hall of Fame game.
I do have 3 plays in MLB. Of course, you know the drill.
(08:54):
Let's try to go 2 in one each out of winning day.
Unfortunately, looking toward yesterday, one of the most
frustrating nights, I would say in in quite a while.
O and 3 -, 3 units. So nearly a golden sombrero,
though that's O and four striking out four times with the
Yankees let us down. Couldn't get anything going
offensively. The Giants, we got some CLV, got
a -130 they close like -135 theylose by one run.
(09:18):
But the one that really hurt wasthe Red Sox, because I was
watching that game and the Red Sox had a four to three lead
going into the bottom of the ninth.
And then the, the baseball gods,the, the, you know, the, the sky
opens up, it starts pouring. There's a rain delay for an hour
and a half. They start the bottom of the
ninth at like midnight. And Jordan Hicks, who their Sox
got in a trade recently with forRaphael Devers, he gives a base
(09:41):
hit, hits 2 guys in a row and then gives up the, you know, the
game losing if you're Red Sox better like me, game-winning, I
guess for the Twins to run single.
So blowing a lead in the ninth, not fun.
Red Sox hurt not only the game yesterday, but for the win total
could use that win for the over 85 1/2.
But you know what that's that's betting.
(10:03):
Sometimes it happens. So we're going to stick to the
model, stick to the blueprint. See if we can get some revenge
here for tonight. So that being said, 3 pack of
plays, let's dive right in first.
But on the board for me, 7:10 PMEastern Time, first pitch.
Let's go to Cincinnati where theRed Legs are hosting the LA
Dodgers now going in and we got the Dodgers 62 and 45 on the
(10:24):
year. They won last night's series
opener. 5 to 2. Cruised as a -150 Rd. favorite
rematch for tonight. The Dodgers are going with the
ready Tyler Glass Now he's one and one 2.75 ERA Reds who are 56
and 51. They're going to go with the
lefty Nick Lodolo. He's 8 and six with a
three-point O 8 ERA. So what we've seen across the
(10:44):
market here, well, this game opened LA around a -, 145 -. 150
Rd. favorite Cincinnati around a+ 130 home dog.
And it looks to me like wise guys, based on the market move
are going with the Dodgers here to keep it rolling.
Because we've seen the Dodgers creep up -145 -, 150 up to -155
(11:04):
- 160. It's not a massive move, not a
10/20/30 cent steam move. We do have about 5 or up to
$0.10 a movement in favor of theDodgers.
Now in the importance of shopping for the best line.
I got dodgers -150 at BET MGM, still available at -150, but
again, other books are -155 -, 160.
But to continue the cap here, itreally jumped out to me of the
(11:26):
Dodgers, not just a a huge move,a smallish move, but the bet
splits. They look really good on LA at
Circa out in Vegas where they really pride themselves on
taking in smart money. But in Vegas at Circa, the
Dodgers are getting 60% of moneyline bets, but nearly 90% of
money line dollars. So it tells me those bigger
wagers out in the desert leaningpretty heavily here on the
(11:48):
Dodgers system match for me favorites off a win with a
winning record who made the playoffs the previous year
getting at least $0.05 of line movement in their favor.
Now it's kind of a mouthful for that system is 127 and 5769
percent 7% ROI this year. Dodgers would have that betting
system value non division favorite lack of familiarity
(12:09):
benefiting quote UN quote the better team who's expected to
win whole bank on the Dodgers offense hopefully getting to low
Dolo. They are on the year hitting two
54161 homers, 561 runs scored Reds hitting two 46109 homers,
487 runs scored. Tyler Glass.
Now in particular, remember theymade a trade with the Tampa Bay
(12:32):
Rays and signed into a big deal.When he's healthy, he's great,
but he's almost always hurt. However, he did just get come
back from the injured list and he's made three starts and he
has an ERA. In those three starts of one,
he's given up two earned runs and 18 innings pitched.
And in night games this season he has a 0.82 ERA.
So banking on hopefully Glass now pitching well.
(12:54):
By the way, Lodolo on the road, he's been kind of unhittable,
2.23 ERA, but at home, 4.17 ERA.So we got a little bit of
movement toward the Dodgers. We got a great bet split, good
system match, better bats, and hopefully Glass now greater than
Lodolo. So first play on the other night
for me guys, I got the dodgers -150 at BET MGM again.
(13:16):
Shop around cuz some books are closer to -155 -, 160 Next step
for you. Let's get some revenge in the
Twin City. Boston Red Sox at the Minnesota
Twins, 7:40 PM Eastern Time, First pitch.
The Twins don't remind me. 51 and 55 won last night's series
opener 5 to 4. Walked it off in the bottom of
(13:36):
the ninth as a -, 110 home pick em.
I really can't get over how thatrain delay really screwed the
Red Sox again. Whatever, gotta let it go.
In tonight's matchup, the Red Sox were 57 and 51.
They're going to go with the ready Lucas Giolito.
He's six and two with a 3.97 ERAon the year.
Twins, meanwhile, are going withPearson OHL, OHL.
(13:57):
Pearson OHL, great name, but he's making his Major League
Baseball debut. Pearson OHL was a 14th round
draft pick in 2021. He has done pretty well in the
minors this year. Five and two, 2.17 ERA.
What have we seen across the market again, always notable to
me when you're going up against the rookie starting pitcher
making his debut. This game opened at basically
(14:20):
pick em get a lot of shops open minus one O 5 both sides -110
both sides somewhere slight Red Sox -115 Rd. favorite.
But either way, we've seen this line move further toward Boston
Red Sox now up to -120 even -125across the market.
And that did coincide with this kid Pearson old being announced
(14:40):
as a starter. So when Oles announced the
starter, further movement towardthe Red Sox, that tells me pro
batters hit the Red Sox wanted to fade this pitcher making his
debut. Now if you look at the bet
splits, they look pretty good onBoston both at DraftKings and
Circa. At DK Big National Book we have
71% of money line bets, 93% of money line dollars on the Sox
(15:02):
circus got 75% of bets, 85% of dollars on Boston.
So you have a low bets, higher dollar sharp split at both
DraftKings and Circa. I do have a few system matches
on the Red Sox. Rd. favorites off a loss getting
$0.10 of steam or more in their favor, they're 57 and 3165
percent, 9% ROI this year. Also short Rd. favorites -130 or
(15:25):
less off a loss, playing an opponent off a win, they're 60
and 4060 percent, 10% ROI. Red Sox do have that same non
division favorite value. Lack of familiarity benefiting
quote UN quote the better team and going to bank on the bats of
the Red Sox, hopefully lighting up this poor kid making his
debut. Red Sox rating 252 on the year,
(15:47):
131 home runs, 524 runs scored. Twins hitting two, 41122 homers,
445 runs scored. And G Alito, who the Red Sox
signed a couple years ago. When he was hurt or he was
healthy and then he got hurt andmissed the entire year, I
thought it was kind of a bad signing.
But he's actually kind of done alittle bit better this year.
(16:07):
He's three and one with a 3.3 OERA on the road this year, and
he's 10 and three or the Red Soxare 10 and three and his last 13
starts. So you've seen some pretty good,
pretty good performance by Boston when G Alito takes the
bump. So you had it all up here, guys.
We got a pick em to fave line, move on Boston, Good splits.
(16:28):
Let's fade a rookie starting pitcher.
We got the Red Sox at -118 at FanDuel again.
Shop around because some books are -120 -, 125 last night of
the night. Let's go out to sunny San Diego,
where the Padres are hosting theNew York Mets. 9:40 PM Eastern
Time, first pitch. Now, the pods, who are 58 and
49, they won last night's seriesopener seven to six, came
(16:51):
through as a -130 home favorite.They got down big in that game
and came back. My old friend Xander Bogarts, I
don't know him personally, but used to play for the Sox.
He's finally turning around playing better for the pods
because that contract doesn't look great right now.
Anyway, tonight's rematch, the Mets were 62 and 45.
They're going with the lefty Sean Manaya one and one 2.19 ERA
(17:12):
this year. Padres, meanwhile, going at the
ready, Ryan Berger one and O 3.84 ERA.
So what is seen across the market here?
Well, this game opened with the Mets, a very short -115 Rd.
favorite San Diego around a -, 1O 5 home, home dog.
And we've seen nothing but movement on the Metropolitans.
Mets have gotten steamed up -115now up to -125 again.
(17:35):
Some shops now as high as -130 So pretty good one way movement
in favor of New York. We do have the Mets with some
pretty good splits in their favor at DraftKings. 64% bets
73% dollars at Circa. 57% bets over 90% of dollars on the Mets.
So I was like it when both DraftKings and Circa kind of
(17:56):
have that same low bets, higher dollar split.
Tells you smart money nationallyand out in Vegas.
Kind of in the same agreement there.
Short Rd. favorites -130 or lessoff a loss, playing an opponent
off a win. Again, same system that just
matched with Boston. 60 and 4060percent, 10% ROI this year.
We do have that non division favorite value.
Lack of familiarity benefiting the team is expected to win the
(18:19):
Mets. Also, hopefully their bats can
light up Burger tonight because they are hitting 135 or have hit
135 homers this year, scored 472runs.
Podges have hit only 90 homers and scored 433 runs.
Manaya is a big part of the cap for me.
He was injured pretty much the entire year.
Just got activated earlier this month.
(18:41):
He's made three starts. He's only given up 1 earned run
in all three starts. So hopefully he pitches well
against San Diego and then also Berger 5.19 ERA at home versus
he's been better on the road. 1.96 CRA.
But we got this line moving further toward the Mets.
Good splits, good system match back in Manaya.
(19:02):
Hopefully he will pitch well forus tonight and see if the Mets
can get some revenge after they kind of blew a bigger lead last
night. But you got it all up, guys.
I got Mets -125 Shop around. Looks like Fanduel's the best
price -126 but we do have some books as high as -130 so
Dodgers, Red Sox, Mets, see if we can get 2 out of 3 eke out a
(19:24):
winning night. Of course, you know that is the
goal. So that about does it for
episode 325 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
powered by Rhythm. This is the part of pod where we
wrap things up, put a bow and ribbon on the pod by saying a
few words and leave you with a couple places to go to links and
things to think about. But I first want to say thank
you. Thank you for listening to the
(19:45):
pod. Tuning in, grinding obviously
through the dog days of summer, but taking the time out of your
busy summers to tune in and listen to some sharp breakdowns
really means a lot to me. If you do want to help me
continue to grow the pod and if you haven't done it yet, would
you please consider giving this podcast a five star review on
Spotify or iTunes go a long way to helping us to continue to
(20:07):
grow the pod. If you want to leave a nice
comment or click the follow button on the podcast page or
recommend the pod to a friend orcolleague or family member, I'd
very much appreciate that as well.
Next. If you enjoy the style of
betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp contrarian betting, again,
we're making sharp bets. Sometimes they don't come
(20:27):
through, but we're playing the long game.
We know that if we stick to the data-driven model long term,
we're going to grind out a profit as long as the, you know,
Red Sox bullpen doesn't blow forus anyway.
If you want to learn more about data-driven betting or you know
someone in your life who could use some data-driven tips, maybe
they're new to betting or maybe they bet a lot and just bet with
their heart and they keep losingand you know they don't know how
(20:48):
to change it. Well, less heart Morehead, how
about that? If you want to learn more about
data-driven betting, I would love for you guys to go to
Amazon.com and type in the Everything Guide to Sports
betting. That's the first book ever
wrote. It's everything I've learned in
the industry. How lines are set, how and why
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
(21:10):
for the best line, how to set upa bankroll management plan, all
included in the Everything Guideto Sports betting.
As I mentioned to start the pod,my new book, the NFL Sharp
Betting Playbook comes out two weeks from today.
If you would like to pre-order acopy, you'll make me very, very
happy. And it's not just charity,
you're going to get something out of it too.
You're going to get all the latest insights that I have been
(21:31):
spending three years putting together pen to paper or I guess
typing on Microsoft Word. You know what the word count was
for this book? 200,000.
So if you want to write up 300 and I think it's 307 page book,
it's about 200,000 words. But anyway, pick up a copy of
the everything guide, the NFL sharp betting playbook.
Bring him to the sports book. I'll sign him for you.
(21:51):
I'll buy you the buy you a beer or ginger ale or maybe maybe a
couple shots after last night, if we can turn it around.
I got a cowboy up anyway. And again, first one's on me,
next one's on you. We'll sweat some games here at
the book tonight. Next.
Have you downloaded rhythm and juice reel yet?
Well, if you haven't, what are you waiting for?
Again? We're about to get to the busy
(22:12):
part of the year with football returning and you got to have a
couple apps to lean on help you cap some games.
The first one of course is Rhythm who does a great job of
powering this pod providing us AI backed models for game bets
and player props. And then we also have Juice
Reel. I'm going to pass the hat.
This pod is free, it cost you nothing.
If you'd like to contribute to the pod tip, your podcast host,
(22:33):
I'd love for you guys to do it in the form of signing up to get
the all systems go best bet picks on the Juice Reel app.
It cost $4.99 a week, 5 bucks tosupport the pod.
But really you're getting these plays earlier.
So if you'll beat some closing lines and get some better
numbers, which again, big in baseball, but wait until we get
to spread sports, you're going to want that plus 3 1/2 dog
(22:53):
hook, not the plus three. But you'll get the ASG pod best
bets exclusively and only on Juice Reel.
You'll also get the Robo Jacksonbest bet picks, the sharp mush
indicators, the arbitrage plays,the shop for the best line
futures, all located inside of the Juice Reel app.
So download Juice Reel, downloadRhythm, give a five star review
in the App Store. It'll be off and running with a
(23:15):
couple great data-driven apps. Next, do you have a live odds
page? Well, if you don't, you need one
because you got to know some basic things.
If you're a data-driven better. What are the games on tap for
today? Start times, live scoring, live
in game wagering odds. If you want to look at a a live
line opportunity, of course you got to know what the lines
opened at, how they've moved shop for the best price.
(23:37):
Identify steam when a team's getting hit, get pop up
notifications for injuries, final score, stuff like that.
Those are all key pieces of information that you need to be
a day driven better and you can get them all when you sign up
and get a membership with Odds Logic.
So give Odds Logic a shot with a7 day free trial, 50% off your
first month just by going to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
(24:03):
Got to have the slash Josh 123 at the end to get that excuse
me, get that 7 day free trial and 50% off your first month of
service. So that about does it for
today's pod. Hopefully on a bounce back
Tuesday after I got to tell you a frustrating night last night
Sox blowing it G men losing again to the Pirates.
What are you doing? Yankees doing nothing against
Tampa Bay. You can tell him a little little
(24:24):
little fired up today. That's that's what baseball's
going to do to you. As they always say.
What is it whiskey and a revolver.
Well, we needed it last night. But anyway, of course I'll leave
you with two final thoughts, whether I see you at the Borgata
in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook in New
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut, at the
Encore in Boston, Plainridge Park Casino, MGM Springfield,
(24:45):
the Nash. Or of course, out in the desert
where the true grinders get downor Billy Walter sends his number
runners with Lois. True as possible is found at the
South Point. Or Sweat and sharp contrarian
plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool when they catch a
big ticket at Circa. You're going to walk up to me.
You're going to show me Yankees,Red Sox and Giants.
We're going to RIP them up and we're going to put them in the
(25:05):
recycle bin. If you have the option of the
trash and the recycle and they're right next to each
other, just put in the recycle. There's nothing wrong with that.
But anyway, hopefully we can getsome winters here for tonight
and sweat out some some tickets that can hopefully be cashed for
tonight as well. But anyway, guys, O and three,
three and O2 and one one and two.
Hot, cold off a terrible night off a great night.
(25:28):
Feel like we're invincible because we're running hot or
feel like we can't hit the forest amongst the trees when
we're cold. Just got to stick with it
because sports betting, it's like a roller coaster.
There's ups and downs. You're going to see the highest,
the highest lowest, the lowest. But one thing you can't you
can't control the outcome. One thing you can't control is
just grinding the model and making smart decisions, which is
(25:49):
big part of the final chapter inmy book.
So I won't I won't spoil it, butthere's a couple kind of
anecdotes that always speak to me and anytime I have a bad
night or you know, kind of struggling here.
But anyway, guys, we got to stick to the model, stick to the
blueprint. If we do that, I know we're
going to be successful long term.
You know what it is by now against the public, with the
house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that closing
(26:11):
line value. If we can do that, we're going
to be successful betters. So have a great Tuesday night,
everyone. Hopefully the gambling gods give
us some revenge here for tonight.
But either either way, win, loseor draw, we'll be right back at
it tomorrow, grinding once againon a big Wednesday edition.
That'll be episode 326 of the All Systems Go sports Betting
podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
(26:34):
great Tuesday night.
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