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July 30, 2025 23 mins

In Episode 326, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Josh⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ dishes out a 3-pack of MLB plays for Wednesday.

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Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:19):
Hello, and welcome to episode 326 of the All Systems Go Sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Wednesday. We are halfway through our work

(00:39):
week. It is officially hump day.
You know what else of these guys?
Little personal note here, it's my anniversary.
Second, second year anniversary or two year anniversary I should
say. I better get this right and
remember moving forward of my wedding day.
So two years ago today, I married my beautiful wife Elise.
A lot of memories, a lot of great times.

(01:00):
We had an incredible night the night before we all got together
and we stayed at this awesome little B&B and then the wedding
grounds are right there. We got everyone together the
night before, watched UFC. We went in the basement of this
hotel, called it the war room. Had an incredible time.
Then of course, two years ago today we got married.
So maybe I'll bring hopefully some some anniversary luck to

(01:22):
today's sweats. Wouldn't that be nice?
But looking toward today guys, we do have a three pack of
sweats for you. I'm going to try to get this pot
out a little bit earlier than usual because we got day sweats
and I have 3 plays and MLB and all of them are early games.
I got a 1235 game which is very early.
I'll play on Toronto and Baltimore, then I'll play on Red
Sox Minnesota that's at 1:10 andthen Cubs in Milwaukee that's a

(01:45):
2:10 PM Eastern Time first pitch.
So 3 early games. Wouldn't it be nice if we could
get some winners here? Because you know what, I'm going
out to an anniversary dinner tonight at our favorite
restaurant. So it would be nice if we could
have a a winning day and then nothing to sweat tonight and I
can just focus on my beautiful wife.
Wouldn't that be nice? Anyway guys looking back toward
yesterday, bounced back after a terrible O and three.

(02:07):
Went two and one with a + 1 + 0.51 unit night.
So got 1/2 unit there, which is good to see.
Red Sox came through, had a big lead, almost coughed it up late.
Had to bring in Chapman, but they held on to beat the Twins.
And then shout out to our guy Will Smith.
No, not Big Willy style. Not, you know, Will Smith from

(02:29):
if you know any various number of movies Fresh Prince of Bel
Air maybe no the Will Smith catcher for the Dodgers because
he had a huge hit in the 9th inning, RBI double to give us
the win there for the Dodgers. Only loser was the Mets and that
was kind of a, you know, nip andtuck game.
It was 11 going into the 6th inning and the Padres just went
nuts. Scored six runs in the sixth and

(02:49):
7th. Machado hit a big Homer so
couldn't get the Mets, but either way, we accomplished our
goal. 2:00 and 1:00 try to get atwo out of three bets each.
Got a winning night. That's exactly what we did.
So let's see if we can keep it rolling here into a big hump
day. I do want to mention real quick
because tomorrow we do have the NFL Hall of Fame game and I
noticed a line move on the Chargers versus Detroit Lions

(03:14):
spot here last day, of course, in July.
But I did notice, I thought thisgame might be heading down
toward a pick em because we opened Detroit around -1 1/2 got
down to one. But guess what, this line just
crept back up. We've now seen this line get
steam backed up to 1 1/2. And I'm even seeing some shops
go to to Detroit -2 I see one book actually.

(03:35):
Detroit -2 1/2. So a lot of movement back toward
Detroit. Late movement.
Hall of Fame favorites are 12 and 667% straight up on the
money line, 12% ROI. Last 18 Hall of Fame games.
So no play as of as of yet. But maybe we could look toward
Detroit. I'm going to do some more
research. Got to figure out who's playing
and who isn't. I want to look up some of

(03:56):
Detroit's numbers with Dan Campbell in the preseason.
But a line movement there towardthe Lions.
So maybe we'll sweat the Lions tomorrow.
We shall see. I would just hate to play it now
and then see it come back down toward to pick them.
But it is notable line crept up a little bit further toward
Detroit. With that being said, guys right
back to do what we love to do. You know the drill, Benton,
Major League Baseball. And I thought maybe I was like,

(04:18):
oh, what's going on there? Are there trades going on?
The deadline is tomorrow. I think it's what, 6:00?
I got a double check. There's a four O clock.
But anyway, today's kind of the last day where you actually, you
know, of course you need to, youknow, figure out who's in and
who's out. I did see Austin Slater, kind of
a nobody outfielder is on the White Sox just got traded to the

(04:38):
Yankees and there was a scratch starting pitcher for for the
Chicago White Sox. It was Alexander and then Hauser
is now pitching and I'll just mention that odds logic, live
odds page. You're really going to need it
right now because you're going to see, of course, some scratch
starting pitchers, some guys being in or out and you get
those pop up notifications if you ever want to give it a shot.

(05:00):
That 7 day free trial, 50% off your first month.
That's odds logic.com/josh 123. But anyway, guys, let's look
toward the slate here for today.First one on the board, 12:35 PM
Eastern Time, first pitch, the Blue Jays visiting the red hot
Orioles. So going to this one, the
Orioles, who are 50 and 58, remember had a terrible start to

(05:20):
the year, fired their manager, but they've gotten a little bit
hot here second-half. They have taken the first three
games of this four-game series. They won the opener, then they
swept yesterday's doubleheader, winning 16 to 4 as a -125 home
favorite and then winning again three to two in the nightcap as
a plus one O 5 home dog. So pitching match up for this
early afternoon showdown. In the series finale, we got the

(05:43):
Jays, who are 63 and 46. Great record, but they're kind
of falling off here a bit. They're going to go with the
ready Jose Barrios. He's seven and four with a 3.83
ERA. You know, all the O's are going
to counter with the fellow readyDean Kramer.
He's 8 and seven with a 4.23 ERA.
Now, what are we seeing across the market here?
Well, this game opened Orioles around a -, 115 home favorite,

(06:04):
Toronto around a -, 1 O 5 Rd. dog.
And the public saying give me the Jays.
They don't believe in Baltimore.Jays have a far better record.
There's no way gamblers fallacy.There's no way the Jays get
swept here, right? Well, you're getting currently
across the market 65% of money line bets on Toronto.
So public is on that trendy dog.However, line pretty much stayed

(06:27):
-115 Orioles all morning. And then about an hour ago, we
saw a big line move toward Baltimore.
So Baltimore was -115 steady andthen shot up to -120 -, 125.
I like that late movement. Sorry, it's my alarm going off.
But that late movement suitable to me because big bets coming in
closer to to first pitch looks to me like smart money leaning

(06:50):
Baltimore. So that move really sold me.
I got down on Baltimore -118 again, shop around some books
-120 some books even closer to -125 So as always, try to find
the best price and cheapest price for a favorite.
Obviously biggest plus money payout if you're on a dog.
But anyway, reverse line movement, 65% of bets Blue Jays,
but the line is going toward Baltimore.

(07:12):
You look at a couple system matches here in Baltimore.
Home favorites off a win who made the playoffs the previous
year getting line movement in their favor.
Those teams are 132 and 6567% this season. 5% ROI.
You also look at short home favorites -140 or less with a
sub 500 record. Playing opponent with an above

(07:33):
500 record. Again, kind of a fishy system
match. Why is a below 500 team favored
over and above 500 team? You would think it'd be the
opposite, and you layer in a short price.
Those teams are 49 and 30 to 61%.
But because of the short price, there are 9% ROI.
Dean Kramer, I want to back Kramer.

(07:53):
He's five and two of the 2.65 ERA at home this year, so he's
pitched pretty well at Camden Yards.
Meanwhile, Jose Berrios, in fiveJuly starts, he has a 6.12 ERA.
He's given up 17 earned runs in 25 innings pitched.
You'll get the Orioles last 10 games pitching much better than
the Jays. That's really been the problem
with Toronto. They're pitching Toronto last 10

(08:16):
games, has a 5.76 ERA. Last 10 games for the O's 3.93
ERA. Then you look at a little bit of
home Rd. advantage here to Baltimore, they're 27 and 26 at
home. Nothing crazy, but one game
above 500. Toronto 26 and 29 on the road 3
games below 500. So we have public Toronto, but a

(08:36):
late steam move feed the trendy dog RLM move toward Baltimore.
Two really good system matches, hopefully the better pitcher on
the bump. Let's go Kramer.
And also one final cherry on top.
I popped open the juice reel app, which if you haven't done
it yet, go download the newest version of the juice reel app
because my buddy Ricky Gold justadded a bunch of upgrades and
and new features and a really cool layout.

(08:58):
But I noticed a 20%, two, zero, 20% sharp mush edge in favor of
the Orioles. See how it all up here, guys?
Sharp mush edge fade, the trendydog reverse line move, late
steam move. I'm going with the Orioles
today. See if they can stay hot at
Camden Yards. I got a -, 118 again.
Shop around. Most books are -120 -, 125 at

(09:19):
this point. Next one for you.
Another early game. Let's go right back to
Minnesota. Scene of the crime in for two
nights ago, but had a good winner with the Red Sox last
night. Rubber match today, 1:10 PM
Eastern Time first pitch Red Soxat Twinkies.
So as I mentioned, the Twins 51 and 56 won the opener 5 to 4.
Don't remind me. Should have been a Red Sox

(09:40):
winner for us. The Twins walked it off in the
bottom of the ninth as a - 110 home pick em.
The Sox though, 58 and 51 bounced back with an 8 to 5 win
yesterday. Took care of business.
Came through as a -130 home Rd. favorite, I should say.
Pitching match up here for this afternoon series finale.
The Sox are going with the righty Brian Baio.

(10:01):
He's six and five. 3.32 ERA meanall the Twins going with the
righty Zebby Matthews, who's twoand two with a 4.97 ERA.
So what are you seeing across the market here this game open
Minnesota listed around a -, 130home favorite Boston around a +
110 Rd. Dog and sharps seem to think
this line is way too high for Minnesota because this line has

(10:22):
fallen away from the Twins and toward the Red Sox.
We've seen the Twins fall from -130 down to -120
Correspondingly, we've seen the Red Sox go from plus 110 to now
plus 100. Some shops even like -1 O 2 - 1
O 4 to Boston. So that tells me we have not a
not quite a dog to pick a line move, but a dog becoming a

(10:42):
shorter dog line move in favor of the Red Sox.
Now if you look at DraftKings, Boston's getting 76% of money
line bets, 92% of money line dollars at Circa, over 90% of
bats in dollars. Heavy on the Red Sox.
So we have some some good kind of one way pro and Joe action in
favor of Boston here. Now the Red Sox have the better

(11:03):
bats. Hoping that continues today.
You saw it come through yesterday with Bregman and Jaron
Duran. The Red Sox are hitting 252 as a
team. They've hit 133 home runs, 532
runs scored. Twins, meanwhile, hitting two
42124 homers, 450 runs scored. In particular our guy Brian
Baio, he has been pretty good this year.

(11:27):
He's kind of been hit or miss, you know, his first few years in
the bigs, but he's having a career year.
He's got his lowest ERA, but in the month of July, 3.13 ERA and
five starts, so he's pitched pretty well.
He's giving up three earned runsor less in 12 straight starts.
So basically he's given us quality starts every time he
goes out. And in day games, he's been
pretty good too, four and two with a 3.19 ERA.

(11:51):
Meanwhile, Mr. Zebby Matthews, he's made two starts in July.
He has a 4.5 O ERA, and he's made a few day game starts with
an ERA of 7.71. So of course, that leads me to
want to back Baio and fade Mr. Matthews, even though I must say
Zebby is a fantastic first name.But anyway, if you look at the

(12:11):
Red Sox in general, big edge in the bullpen.
They had to bring in Chapman yesterday to nail down the save
because it got a little hairy there at the end.
But the Red Sox do have the better pen.
They have an ERA of 3.37. That's the 4th best in baseball,
4.29 for Minnesota. You also look at the Red Sox
last 10 games. Team ERA of 3.74, Twins 5.37.

(12:33):
Another angle here that jumped out to me.
Day games, the Red Sox are 26 and 9, sorry. 26 and 18 in day
games. Minnesota 22 and 31 in day
games. So it's pretty clear Red Sox
play well in the day. Minnesota does not.
We have a line move toward Boston.
I also popped open the juice real app and noticed an 11%

(12:54):
sharp mush edge in favor of Boston.
So the Sox should have gotten usa win in game one and blew it.
I I blame the rain delay in thatone, but came through last
night. They're getting a line move in
their favor here today. I'm going to back Baio over
Zebby Matthews and follow the sharp mush edge.
I got the Sox. You can get them now around plus
100 even money. Last bet of the day cubbies.

(13:17):
Milwaukee Brew Crew twenty 2:10 PM Eastern Time, first pitch.
Let's set the stage. Talk some line movement.
I'll give you my play for this one.
So the Brewers 64 and 43, I believe the best record in
baseball. Can you believe it?
Taking the first two games in this three-game set going for
the sweep. They won the opener 8 to 4 as a
-1 O 5 home dog. They won again yesterday, 9:00

(13:38):
to 3:00 as a -130 home favorite for today's afternoon series
finale. The Cubbies, who are 62 and 45,
they're going to go with the lefty Shota and Managa.
He's seven and four with a 3.12 ERA.
Meanwhile, the Brew Crew going with the ready Freddy Peralta,
12 and four 2.81 ERA. More on Peralta here in a
second. He's been really good.

(13:59):
This line opened with the Twin, the Minnesota, sorry, the
Milwaukee Brewers listed around a -, 115 home favorite.
Chicago around a -, 105 Rd. Dog and sharps are very quietly
sided with the Brewers to complete this sweep because
we've seen Milwaukee get steamedup -115 to -120 some shops even
as high as -125 S pretty good. It's not a 10/20 cents the move,

(14:23):
but some movement here in favor of the Brew Crew.
Now if you look at circa out in the desert where the wise guys
are at 67% of money line bets, but nearly 80% of money line
dollars are going here with the Brewers.
So tells me we're with the the sharps out in Vegas by backing
Milwaukee One system match that I really love on Milwaukee home

(14:43):
favorites off a win made the playoffs the previous year
getting line movement in their direction.
This matched a second ago with Baltimore 132 and 6567 percent,
5% ROI. Milwaukee in particular, you
might be asking yourself, hey, how do the Brewers do at home as
a home chalk favorite? Well, they're the third best
home favorite in baseball. 26 and 1170 percent, 17% ROI as a

(15:06):
home favorite. Brewers also have some
correlative betting value. Favorite low total total in this
game is a very low 7 1/2 juiced under some books even looking
like they might drop to 7:00. But that would be a good sign
for the Brewers with the fewer amount of expected runs scored,
more likely to come from quote UN quote that better team who's
expected to win now in managa 4.13 ERA and five July starts,

(15:29):
they're giving up 13 earned runsand 28.1 innings pitched.
But listen to this Freddie Peralta.
I got to check his Cy Young odds.
I mean, Skeens is going to win it, but listen to these numbers
on the year. I gave it to you a second ago.
He's 12 and four with a 2.81 ERA, but he has a 2.51 ERA and
five July starts. Milwaukee is 7 and one in his

(15:50):
last eight starts and at home this year.
Listen to this seven and O 1.55 ERA.
So I want to back Peralta in this spot.
Brewers meanwhile, going up against the lefty in Managa,
they happen to be the 4th best hitting team against southpaws
this year, hitting 260. So you got it all up almost
might feel like, hey, Cubs can'tget swept, they got to win this

(16:12):
one. But hey, a little bit of line
movement toward Milwaukee. They got their ace on the bump.
We got a good system match, pretty good bet splits, little
bit of line movement. I'm going brew crew here, guys,
shop around. I got the beer makers at -120
but again, some books as high as-125 so make sure you get that
best price. Orioles, Red Sox, Brewers, let's

(16:33):
try to get 2 out of 3 eek out a winning day.
So that about does it for episode 326 of the All Systems
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
start, of course, first by saying thank you.
Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
busy lives to pull up a chair tothe virtual bar and sweat some
sharp data-driven breakdowns on me.

(16:55):
I've been mentioning it all summer, but these are the dog
days of summer. I know you got a lot going on,
but the fact that you keep tuning in, keep grinding these
plays with me, keep making sharpdata-driven bets.
I'm really proud of this community of data-driven wise
guys that we've created, so thank you.
If you'd like to support the pod, please consider giving the
pod a five star review on Spotify or iTunes.

(17:15):
Maybe leave a nice comment underthe review section, click the
follow button. That way you get alerted little
pop up on your smartphone as soon as it comes out each day.
Might be surprised when you see this one pop up because it's a
little bit earlier than usual. But also if you want to
recommend the pod to a friend, colleague, family member, fellow
better word of mouth also is a great way to to get turn someone

(17:36):
on to something. Next, if you enjoy the style of
betting data-driven, sharp, contrarian betting, no parlays,
no, you know, hammer this team because they're due.
We're not betting based on bias or gut instinct.
We're betting based on line movement, bet split system
matches, data, quantifiable facts and information, not our
our gut bias and instinct. But if this style of betting has

(17:59):
kind of open a door for you, youkind of see the merits of it.
You now enjoy staying at your Odds Logic live odds page and
looking for sharp moves and trying to identify steam and
taking a contrarian approach. Well, if that's the case and you
want to learn more about data-driven betting or you have
someone in your life who could use some data-driven tips, I
would love if you wanted to go to Amazon.com and type in the

(18:19):
Everything Guide to Sports betting.
It's the first book I ever wrote, very proud of it.
But it's got everything I've learned in the industry.
It's really kind of geared toward brand new betters or
novice betters, but there's alsoa lot of great tips and
strategies for kind of intermediate betters.
Get into a lot of system matchesand stuff like that.
But it's got everything I've learned from how lines are set,
how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to

(18:40):
locate sharp action, how to place them in person or online,
how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
management strategy, how to go contrarian, all included in the
Everything Guide to sports betting.
While you're picking up the everything guide on Amazon.com,
stay on Amazon.com and then typein the NFL Sharp betting
playbook. It's my new baby.
It's coming out two weeks from yesterday.

(19:01):
Cannot believe it. We're so close.
I can't wait for you guys to getin your hands and see what I've
been working on day and night, all the blood, sweat and tears
over three years right in this thing and it's almost available.
So really excited about it. But if you wanted to get a leg
up on the NFL season, kind of get ready, of course, for the
biggest time of year for us is betters.
It's really got everything how to bet pre season.

(19:24):
I mean win totals. I go obviously all the
strategies that we talked about,how to identify smart money.
It's all available to you in theNFL sharp betting playbook.
So if you want to pre-order a copy, you'd make me happy.
You'd make my publisher triumph books very happy as well.
So show up at the at the book with the everything guide or the
sharp betting playbook. I'll buy you beer or ginger ale

(19:46):
and I'll sweat some some baseball someday.
Sweats today. Next.
Have you downloaded Rhythm in Juice Reel yet?
My two favorite sports betting apps because they're all based
on data. Not bias, but data.
Rhythm fantastic for their AI back models and predictions for
game bets and player props. Juice Reel where you can.
Here I am passing the hat. This pod is free.
If you'd like to support the pod, drop in a $5.00 bill and

(20:09):
sign up to get a week or more ifyou like it.
I want to support the pod of ASGofficial best bets.
You would have gotten Orioles, Red Sox, Milwaukee about an hour
ago. When I bet it, it goes right to
my sports book to the juice reelapp.
You can tell fade do whatever you like, but that's one
advantage. Support the pod 5 bucks a week.
I would like to think I provide at least a dollars worth of

(20:29):
insights for each podcast. But yeah, sign up there.
You also get the robo Jackson best bet picks the sharp mush
edges the arbitrage plays the shop for the best line futures
all available and download juicereel.
So download juice reel download rhythm.
Give him a five star review in the App Store mentioned earlier,
but again, baseball right now wegot a loaded slate.

(20:50):
We got people getting traded, injuries, scratch starting
pitchers. You need odds logic, especially
right now. Odds logic is a great live odds
page. First off, you need a live odds
page in general if you're going to be a day driven better
because you got to know all the games available to bet that day,
the start times, the live scoring, the live in game
wagering odds, but really importantly, tracking the
market. What did the line open that?

(21:12):
How was it move? Which direction as it move, pull
up the line history, identify steam when a team gets lit up in
red. I'll give you an example.
The when the White Sox guy was scratched on odds logic, there
was a pop up and then immediately I saw the Phillies
go from like -140 to like -160 all lit up in red.
So the advantage there is if you're quick enough, you can

(21:32):
still find a book hanging like a-, 140.
But Odds Logic is great for all sports and I'd love for you guys
to give it a shot, test it out now so that the time when
football comes back, you're kindof used to it and know how to
know how to identify everything.You can go to this special link
to get 7 day free trial 50% off your first month.
Odds logic.com/josh 123. So that's it guys.

(21:56):
Episode 326 of the ASG Pod. As always, whether I see you at
the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown,
Connecticut, at the Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park,
Casino, MGM, Springfield, or of course, out in the desert where
the true grinders get down or Billy Walter sends his number
runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the South

(22:16):
Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
plays when Will Smith gets a 9thinning RBI double for us at
Circa. You're going to walk up to me,
show me a Dodgers ticket, show me a Red Sox ticket.
First one's on me, next one's onyou.
We'll sweat some games here today and try to get some more
winners. So as always, guys two and one,
one and two, three and OO and three off.

(22:37):
A great day, a bad day, mediocreday.
Whether we're hot, whether we'recold, you just got to keep
grinding. Stick to the long term approach,
stay disciplined with our bankroll management and just
keep grinding the system matches.
You guys might know by now, system matches go a little bit
like this, against the public, with the house, with the pros.
Flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.

(22:57):
If we can do that long term, they'll be ups and downs along
the way. Sports betting is a roller
coaster. It ain't easy, but this is this
is the model that I've been taught and I know it works and
we just keep grinding it and take that forest amongst the
trees. Approach marathon, not a Sprint.
So good luck everyone. Have a fantastic Wednesday and I
will see you guys tomorrow for abig Thirsty Thursday edition.

(23:20):
That'll be episode 327 of the All Systems Go sports betting
podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
great Wednesday.
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