July 31, 2025 • 28 mins
In Episode 327, Josh dishes out a best bet for the NFL Hall of Fame Game on Thursday night, plus a pair of MLB moneylines.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:19):
Hello, and welcome to episode 327 of the All Systems Go sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Thirsty Thursday. It is the final day in the month
(00:40):
of July before we turn the page to August.
It's also a huge day cuz it's the MLB trade deadline.
But most importantly, guys, unless you've been living under
a rock, maybe you don't know. Maybe you do know.
You probably know cuz you're a sports bettor and you pay
attention to what's going on. But guess what?
Today is today is the return of the NFL.
That's right, we have an NFL game, an official game.
(01:03):
Yes, it's pre season, yes, it's the Hall of Fame game, but it is
a real NFL game. The lines are up, the splits are
out. I got betting system matches.
We have an actual NFL football game to bet on tonight.
Chargers and the Detroit Lions in the annual Hall of Fame game,
8:00 tonight. So that's pretty exciting.
Obviously, MLB trade deadline today.
If you're a baseball fan like me, you're wondering what your
(01:24):
team's going to do. Are my Red Sox going to make a
move? Who knows, but there's only
three games today. Now I do have a three pack of
sweats for you. There are two MLB games later
today that I do have a play on with some good sharp line
movement. But I do have a play on what
you're most excited about the NFL Hall of Fame game.
So I'm going to give you kind ofa word of caution on the side.
But I do have a play on the total and the total is very
(01:47):
interesting. It's been on the move.
We got some good bet splits. When you hear about this coach
to the over under might be a little bit excited to play this
one. And also a really good sharp
mush edge from our friends at Juice Rails.
So believe it or not, even though we're kind of glued to
baseball, we have some football to bet tonight.
And you know what? My wife actually called me on
her lunch break today and she said, you know, do you want to
(02:09):
go meet me and my mom, my mother-in-law out at the mall
tonight because we got some returns and we do some shopping.
And I was like, well, you know, do you mind if I don't come?
And she's like, oh, no worries. No, no, not at all.
So secretly I'm like, yes, I getto go to Chipotle, pick up a
burrito bowl, come home, sweat the games here with with me and
the pup as I wait for the wife to get home.
(02:30):
So I guess when you're, you're married in your late 30s, these
are the things that excite you. But anyway, guys, 3 pack overall
play on the Hall of Fame game and two plays here in Major
League Baseball. Now looking back toward last
night, kind of a frustrating night. 1 and 2 -, 1 unit.
We did have the Red Sox come through with a big winner, 13 to
one, Really didn't have to sweatthat one at all.
But we lost with the Brewers, pretty much a no show.
(02:52):
They got rolled by the Cubs and the one that was frustrating was
the Orioles because the Orioles had that late movement in their
favor. They jumped out to a three
nothing lead. They got down, came back and
went went up five to three and then their bullpen completely
imploded. I think they gave up like 5 or
six runs in the 7th or 8th inning.
And then they made me have a a glimmer of hope as they mounted
(03:13):
a big comeback only to come up short.
And it was frustrating too. If if you're watching this game
is the Orioles had bases loaded 2 outs and the guy basically
should have walked the stupid idiot umpire.
Bring on the robots. Idiot umpire calls it a called
strike 3 when if you look at thelittle rectangle the the K zone,
the ball was pretty clearly outside.
(03:35):
So that was that was kind of annoying.
But either way, guys, we're going to keep on grinding here.
See if we can start our our NFL year off 1 and O that'll be a
nice start to the year with a couple baseball games here as
well. So that being said, let's waste
no time and start with not baseball.
I'm going to leave that to the second-half of the pod here.
Let's start with some NFL football.
(03:56):
So I want to talk first real quick about betting preseason
games and betting Hall of Fame games because you're going to
get a very different take from your friends, your your fellow
gamblers. And I don't think there's a
right or wrong when it comes to betting preseason, but I do
think you want to pick a lane. And what do I mean by pick a
lane? What I mean is that I would
either be totally into it, you know, bet these games, track
(04:19):
these numbers and there's a lot of information based bets we
want to take advantage of, whichbasically means, you know, what
are the coaches telling us in terms of who's going to play and
who isn't? Or I think you want to lay off
entirely. I don't think you just want to,
you know, put your toe in to thewater here and there.
You're either all in or all out.Now if you're all out, that's
OK. You can still break down the
games. You can write down, excuse me,
(04:39):
in a notebook what you would have bet.
And you can also kind of brush up on getting re acclimated to
betting the NFL. And I think there is an
advantage to betting pre season because whether you, you know,
get down or not have an officialbet, you're still training your
brain to sweat spread sports andyou know, like football.
Think about key numbers again. So I think there's definitely
some some value there. Now I'm of the the former, not
(05:04):
the latter. I love betting pre season.
And a reason for that is if you look or you kind of think about
what the odds makers are tellingyou and what the sharps are
telling you, it's not a secret anymore.
But pros love betting the preseason because big advantage
here is that the the coaches aregoing to come out and tell you
exactly what they're doing. So for example, tonight we've
(05:24):
already had Harbaugh come out and say Trey Lance is going to
start. He's probably going to play the
entire first half. He may even play a series in the
second quarter. You have the lions coming out
and saying, hey, no Jared Goff tonight.
No, I'm on Ross St. Brown, no Gibbs, but Hendon
Hooker and Kyle Allen are going to be our starting are being are
two quarterbacks here to battle out for the the backup job.
(05:46):
So no other time of year are yougoing to get this type of
information. The other angle here is if you
talk to odds makers, they hate booking the pre season because
the numbers are usually pretty short.
You know, the spreads going to be like 1234 really not much
more than like four or five points.
And these numbers can really move based on you know,
information coming out based upon who's playing and who
(06:06):
isn't. So the fact that pros will come
out and tell you they love betting pre season and the odds
makers say they hate booking preseason, you got to think to
yourself if they love betting booking pre season, that's
probably because they make a killing.
If they don't like it, it's probably because they you know,
they might take a hit because it's harder to to cap these
games and the pros have an edge.So with that being said, I like
(06:28):
betting the pre season. Now this is a Hall of Fame game,
so it's kind of its own animal here, but there are some
interesting things to talk aboutfor this game.
I do have a play for you, so I'mgoing to give you first my angle
here, that lean but layoff or I'm just not betting this at
all, which would be the side because if you look at the side
in this game, let's just kind ofbreakdown this game like we
(06:50):
would any other game. We open this game basically
Detroit around a 1 1/2 point favorite.
They're technically the home team, but there's a neutral site
game and basically this line is kind of been back and forth.
One point it got down to 1, now it's back up to 1 1/2.
You have a couple shops like Circa out in Vegas who are at
2:00, but basically from open toclose or open to current, it
(07:13):
really hasn't moved any at all. Now if we look at what the
betting market is doing here, DraftKings, 65% of bets are
taking the Lions. So you could kind of say to
yourself, hey, everyone's playing Lions, but yet the line
really hasn't moved much. Yes, there are some 1 and halfs
up to two, but really hasn't moved much off the opener.
So I don't want to be with the public.
(07:35):
I'm a contrarian better by nature.
Obviously in last year was not agood year for contrarian
betters. It was a huge outlier where you
had a ton of favorites and overshit.
It was the best public year I think in like 15 years.
But as a data-driven contrarian,better I'm not going to be with
the drunk guys at the bar. Who are saying just lay with the
lions? It's so short.
Play the Lions. Lions may win, Lions may cover,
(07:57):
but as a again, contrarian better.
I don't want to be with the public and basically a line that
hasn't really moved at all. The other angle here is if you
look at preseason dogs that are +3 or less, they're covering 61%
of the time since I think since 2018.
So basically that would tell youto play the Chargers.
The other angle here is, I must admit, I do have a lot of
(08:21):
respected people, sharp betters who like the Chargers tonight as
well. So the fact that the Lions are
public, the Chargers are in a good betting system, +3 or less
dogs, again, covering nearly 2/3of the time, and a lot of
respected wise guys are playing the Chargers.
This is a layoff for me. I really don't see a clear edge
one way or the other. And there's also a stat out
(08:41):
there on on who is it? Dan Campbell, I think he's three
and six ATS in the preseason. Also, crazy things happen
second-half when no one really cares who's going to win or not.
And you got third, fourth stringplayers out there.
So first angle here is I'm not playing the side.
I am, however, going to play thetotal and it may surprise you a
bit. I'm going over in this game
(09:02):
guys, over 33 1/2. Now here's my logic to play the
over. First off, what are we seeing
across the market? Will this total open 32 1/2?
At one point there were some books I thought I saw like a 32
maybe. And then it kind of crept backed
up and and really stayed at 32 1/2.
But over the last 24 hours, we've seen it get up to 3333
(09:23):
1/2. And even today you're seeing
some books go to 34. So it's pretty clear here, late
movement, which is notable to me.
Limits are raised, bigger bets come in, is playing this over.
So on game day, the total isn't falling, it's rising.
Tells me we got some respect andmoney going over.
The other angle here is shop around because currently what I
got was over 33 1/2 at -110 standard juice at FanDuel.
(09:47):
But a lot of books are over 33 1/2 -, 115 and a lot of books
are at 34. And if you look at circa,
they're at 34. They're pretty sharp books.
So they're kind of higher than the market.
Remember in the hot dog contest,yes, I'm going to make a
comparison to the hot dog contest, but they had, what was
it, 70 1/2 hot dogs. Rest of the market was 71 1/2.
Basically, they were more bullish on the under.
(10:09):
Well, in this regard, they're kind of more bullish on the over
so late movement and Circa bullish bullishness, is that
even a word? BS Ness is leaning over.
Second angle here is if you lookat the splits, 65% of bets on
the over. Don't love that that is
technically public, but you're getting nearly 75% of the money
on the over. So that would tell me it's not
(10:30):
just dumb average Joes at the bar going over, but some
respective money and the sign iscreeping up.
Next angle for me. If we look at the weather
tonight, yes, football, we got to start thinking about the
weather. 65°, no precipitation, very mild winds, 5 to 10 mph.
So there's no rain, there's no wind, really nothing to worry
(10:52):
about. So we have a perfect night at,
what is it, Tom Benson Stadium next?
If we look at the last three years when it comes to this Hall
of Fame game. Now, it used to be back in the
day. I remember when I first started
in the betting industry, my first job was sports Insights.
Now I got hired way back in 2011, but at one point it was
(11:13):
like just always play the under in the Hall of Fame game because
typically you see low scoring games.
If we look at the under, let me see if I can find this from,
let's see, 2006 all the way to just a few years ago. 20/21 the
under was 123456789 and four. So the under did very well.
(11:40):
However, last three years the over is 3 and O three years ago,
Jags Raiders 27 to 1138 points year after that Browns Jets
2116. I remember that one because I
was actually on my honeymoon in in Cancun.
I remember watching it on this little little bar and I was like
one of the only Americans who cared about that game because I
(12:00):
played it. But that was a total of the
other angle here is the totals have risen.
So like 3 years ago was 30 and ahalf 33 and a half 3334.
So if we look at again, the lastthree years and last year was
Texans, Bears, that was 2117, we've averaged 38 points a game.
So we do have that kind of recent trend to the over next.
(12:24):
Dan Campbell, if you dig into Dan Campbell in the preseason,
he's 8:00 and 4:00 to the over 67%.
So again, you've seen these higher scoring games.
I mentioned Trey Lance playing the whole first half.
I think that's a good thing for offense.
Yes, he was a high draft pick, pretty much a bust, but he's got
some experience. He's trying to show out.
He's going to get a lot of time.It's not like it's a four string
(12:46):
rookie playing. So hopefully he's got some
offense out of Trey Lance. Then I mentioned the quarterback
battle, Hendon Hooker, remember he was a stud at Tennessee.
I think he blew out his knee andKyle Allen, a pretty good
veteran. They're both playing and they're
battling for the backup job. So it's to their incentive or to
their benefit to play well and put up points.
So we've built this case where the late money is going over low
(13:08):
bets hired, all our bets split to the over.
We have bullish 34 at Circa lastthree years the total has gone
over. We have great weather.
We have Campbell 67% to the overin the preseason, Trey Lance and
a quarterback battle. Then a little cherry on top, I
pop open Juice Rail and our friends at Juice Rail go to the
sharp mush edge for this total 24% sharp mush edge to the OVA.
(13:34):
So that tells me everyone who has downloaded Juice Rail and
all the sharper winning batters who have synced up their books
are also leaning over. So you got all up here guys, and
we got an opportunity here to sweat this over tonight.
Now again, you really got to getthat 33 1/2.
You hate to see it land right on34.
You know, also you get some missed extra points, you know,
(13:55):
going for going for two, maybe we're going to see some
turnovers, which would be nice and short fields.
But you got it all up here. I think there's an opportunity
from a data-driven perspective to play this over.
So the first bet of the year forme, Hall of Fame game, call me
call me crazy or not for bettingit, but I think we built a case
from a data-driven perspective to root for points and play this
(14:16):
over. So I'm officially on Chargers
Lions Hall of Fame game tonight,8:00 over 33 1/2 -, 110 at
FanDuel. Now let's turn the page and get
right back to betting Major League Baseball.
I know we're all excited about the football game tonight.
We still got some baseball here on in on the slate.
(14:37):
So 2 plays overall, both big steam moves.
Let's see if we can get at leastone.
If we can get both, that'd be even better.
So first one on the board for me.
Let's look at a 7:10 PM Eastern Time.
First pitch we got the Braves visiting the Cincinnati Red
Legs. So setting the stage for this
one. The Braves come in 45 and 62.
Just dropped two or three against the Royals.
(14:57):
They lost the series finale yesterday. 1 nothing in extras
as a + 100 Rd. dog. You know all the red legs 57 and
52 just lost two or three against the Dodgers.
Avoided the sweep though they won the series finale yesterday.
5:00 to 2:00 as a + 140 home dog.
So pitching match up for tonight.
We have the Braves going with the recently acquired Carlos
Carrasco. Remember him?
(15:18):
He's 38 years old. He had a lot of good years with
the Guardians, two and two 5.91 ERA.
He was just picked up recently because the Braves are are
decimated pitching staff that made a trade for Eric Fetti as
well. But the Reds meanwhile, are
going to go with the lefty Andrew Abbott, who's been really
good this year. 8 and 1 two point O 9 ERA.
So what are you seeing across the market?
(15:40):
Well, we open this game red legsaround a -, 160 home favorite,
the Braves around a + 135 Rd. dog and we've seen nothing but
steam in favor of Cincinnati. Let's go Pete Rose.
The Reds have gone from -160 nowall the way up to -185 some
shops even now -190 now if you sign up to get the official best
(16:01):
bets from Juice Reel, $4.99 a week.
I put in Reds -175 earlier today.
So if you bet it earlier, you'refeeling pretty good with some
CLV. Yes, the price is getting more
expensive, but also tells you there's continued action on the
red legs. I really like the Reds bet
splits. If you look at DraftKings, 73%
of money line bets, 83% of moneyline dollars.
(16:24):
And then over at Circa in Vegas,70% of bets, nearly 80% of
dollars. So we got a pro and Joe low
bets, higher dollar split at both DraftKings and Circa on
Cincinnati. Then we look at some system
matches lit up here on Cincinnati.
You got 3 pretty good ones. Non division home favorites off
a win, getting line movement in their favor.
Very simple. 183 and 9965 percent, 5% ROI this year.
(16:48):
Thursday home favorites -175 or more. 18 and six this year. 75
percent, 8% ROI. Home favorites with big steam,
$0.20 or more in the opening game of a new series. 62 and
2571 percent, 9% ROI. So 3 pretty good system matches
there on the Reds. Dig a little deeper into Abbott.
(17:10):
The Reds are 13 and five and Abbott's 18 starts.
He's given up 1 earned run or less and 14 of his eighteen
starts overall at home. Four and one 1.93 ERA.
Meanwhile, the Braves only hitting 230 against lefties this
year. That ranks 21st in baseball.
You know, Carrasco, he actually hasn't pitched since May 4th and
(17:30):
he has allowed three earned runsor more in five of his eight
starts. If you look at the Reds just
recently, last 10 games, they'reonly five and five, but they're
hitting 245. Team ERA of 3.62, Braves last
10-2 and eight to 224. Batting average, 652 ERA.
We also have the Reds 32 and 24 at home, you know, decent home
(17:51):
record. Braves are only 19 and 36 on the
road. That's the fourth worst Rd.
record in baseball. And also add today's the trade
deadline. Braves have a Cunha who's
injured. There's rumors Ozuna could get
dealt. The Reds are picking up guys,
keep Ryan Hayes and they picked up Zach Littell from Tampa Bay
and I think they picked up a reliever maybe.
(18:12):
So you have one team that's getting big steam and is buying
other team that's kind of get getting steamed against and is
in cell mode. Add it all up here, guys.
There's an opportunity here to root for the Pete Rose Red Legs.
I got a -175 again. Looks like your best number
right now is around -185 at BET MGM.
Last bed of the night. Staying up late.
(18:33):
Let's go out to the AL West and the West Coast, get some sushi
and root for the Mariners. Seattle Mariners hosting the
Texas Rangers now. Rangers come in 57 and 52, just
lost two or three against the Halos, but did avoid the sweep
they won yesterday. Six to three as a -, 125 Rd.
favorite. You know all the M's.
Same record, 57 and 52. Just dropped two or three
(18:55):
against the A's. Excuse me, Lost 5 to 4 yesterday
as a -150 Rd. favorite. So pitching match up for
tonight. We have the Rangers going with
the ready Kumar Rocker. He's four and four with a 5.73
ERA. You know all the M's going with
fellow ready George Kirby. Five and five 4.5 OERA.
What have you seen across the market here?
(19:17):
Well, if you like Cincy, I thinkyou like Seattle.
Another big home favorite that'sgetting steamed.
Seattle open this game around a -. 150 home favorite.
Texas around a + 130 Rd. Dog and sharps have pounded the
Mariners. They've gone from -150 up to
-175 some looks, even -180 I jumped on Seattle -170 at
(19:39):
Caesar's little bit earlier today.
If you look at the splits at DraftKings, 66% of bets, but a
little more than 70% of the money is on Seattle.
So a little bit of a wise guy. Low bets, higher dollar split,
system match. We love Thursday.
Home favorites -175 or more. 18 and 675% this year. 8% ROI and
(19:59):
the same system match with Cincyas well.
Home favorites with Big Steam $0.20 or more in their favor in
the opening game of a new series. 62 and 2571%.
With a 9% ROI, we do have some correlative betting value in
favor of the Ms. because they'rearound a -, 175 home favorite
and the total is very low 7 1/2.So fair amount of expected run
(20:22):
scored. More likely to come from quote
UN quote that better team. I'm going to bank on the
Mariners bats hopefully getting to Rocker.
They're hitting 245 on the year,152 homers, 492 run scored.
Rangers hitting two 33116 homers, 452 run scored.
Now Kirby in the month of July, he's made four starts, 3.86 ERA.
(20:45):
Seattle is 7 and two in his lastnine starts.
Rockers made four starts in July, 4.95 ERA and he is only
one and four with a 9.91 ERA on the road.
He's he's, I think it was what was he second overall pick?
I know he's in the first round, but you know, decent at home,
struggle on the road. You see that a lot with young
pitchers. Mariners, meanwhile, 28 and 24
(21:07):
at home, Rangers only 23 and 32 on the road.
Seattle is 7 and two against theRangers this year.
So hope that continues here tonight.
And Texas, I don't know if they've made many moves like
they just dealt away a reliever,but Seattle just made a big
trade for Eugenio Suarez. So they added Josh Naylor.
They added Suarez, who's hit a ton of home runs this year.
(21:28):
I don't know if Suarez is in thelineup tonight yet, hasn't been
released, but maybe those are good vibes that they're, they're
going for it. And that trickles in throughout
the locker room. We got it all up here, guys.
Big steam on the Reds, big steamon Seattle.
Laying it here with both of them.
I got Seattle again -170 at Caesar's.
Shop around a lot of books now -175 -, 180 So that about does
(21:51):
it for episode 327 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
podcast. And can I just say what a
pleasure it is to break down an NFL game?
Boy, did I miss betting the NFL.Before you know it, we got
college football returning as well.
But anyway, guys, this is the part of the pod where we wrap
things up. And I start first by saying
thank you. Thank you for taking the time
(22:11):
out of your day, out of your busy lives to pull up a chair to
the virtual bar and sweat some sharp data-driven breakdowns
with me. If you do enjoy the pod, you
want to help me grow the pod, let me know you appreciate the
insights. Would you please consider giving
it a five star review on Spotifyor iTunes?
If you want to leave a nice comment under the review section
or click the follow button, recommend the pod to a friend.
(22:32):
That would also be fantastic. Next, if you enjoy the style of
betting breakdown data-driven sharp can train betting you
notice we. Didn't say you're late with
Detroit cuz. Cuz the Lions are the balls, no?
We're breaking down games based on data, not bias and
favoritism. But this style of betting has
appealed to you. You've kind of had a light go
off in your head that hey, you know, there's a market we can
(22:52):
track here. Will the market get every game
right? No, because betting is really
hard and it's unpredictable. That's why they call it
gambling. You're taking a gamble on an
unknown outcome. But this style of betting does
provide you a blueprint that overtime over the long haul, it
is productive. So if you want to learn more
about data-driven betting, if you want to learn and get ready
(23:12):
to bet the NFL season, well, guess what, There are two books.
Go to Amazon.com and type in these two books, the Everything
Guide to Sports Betting and the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook.
My two books here, one's been out for a few years now at this
point, the Everything guide, it's got everything I've learned
in the industry, how lines are set, how and why they move, how
to read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to
(23:33):
place a bet in person or online,how to shop for the best line,
how to set up a bankroll management plan.
Then the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook, which comes out August
12th, which is crazy. It's what is it 12 days away.
Can't believe it. But if you'd like to pre-order a
copy of the sharp betting playbook or grab a copy of the
(23:53):
everything guide. It will mean a lot to me.
And you will also get a free drink from me when I see at the
book. And I must say next week I'm
spending four days at Mohegan Sun because my brother-in-law is
a it's he's a comic comic book writer and it's terrific on and
it's at Mohegan Sun. So maybe I'll see you at Mohegan
Sun. We're staying there with him for
four days. Got a hotel room.
(24:15):
I'll be sweating games there. And they're actually they're
running a cool promo where if you bet a $25 future or more,
you get a free, a free bucket of, of Bud Lights.
So I'm looking, I'm very much looking forward to that.
But anyway, grab the NFL sharp betting playbook, the everything
guide to sports betting. Bring him to the book.
I'll sign him for you. I'll buy you a beer.
I'll give you one of my Bud Lights from my my futures bucket
(24:37):
next. Have you downloaded Rhythm and
Juice real yet? Well, if you haven't, now is the
time because today when the Hallof Fame game comes here, guys,
it's telling you it's about to get busy.
Football is pretty much back. So you need these two apps
because they're great and they're going to help you to add
to your data-driven toolkit first with rhythm, data-driven
(24:58):
AI recommended plays for game bets and player props and Juice
Reel of course, where you can sign up to get the all systems
go. Best bet picks for $4.99 a week
to support the pod. You get these plays earlier,
hopefully beat some closing lines.
You're also going to get the Robo Jackson best bet picks, the
sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays, the shop for
the best line futures all available when you download
(25:19):
juice reel. So download rhythm download
juice reel. You'll be off and running making
sharp bets and make sure you give them a five star review in
the App Store as well. Next to last odds logic.
You need a live odds page. I was giving you the line
movement with, you know, the chargers, Detroit, obviously the
baseball games. I get it from odds logic.
Odds Logic gives me all the games, it gives me the opening
(25:41):
line, the current numbers I can identify Steam.
I noticed how that total was creeping up.
You're also going to get a full line history breakdown live in
game wagering. You're also going to get great
notifications if a guy gets scratched or an injury.
Really so many great features ofthe Odds Logic live odds page.
So I would love for you guys to sign up for Odds Logic and just
(26:03):
give it a shot. 7 day free trial.
If you like it, you get 50% off your first month.
You just got to make sure you use this this link here.
Odds logic.com/josh 123 again, odds logic.com/josh 123.
So that about does it everybody.Episode 327 now in the books,
Football's back. It's a rainy day for me in
(26:24):
Boston, outskirts of Boston, butI will take that over the 100°
days. My lawn boy didn't need water.
So again, you see what I'm excited about.
Rain for my lawn, going to Chipotle, sweating the games
alone with my dog. I love my wife, but I'm OK.
She's going to let me sweat the game tonight by myself.
But that that, that's life when you're late 30s.
(26:45):
And you know what? I love it.
I'm excited about it. But anyway, guys, two final
thoughts as we depart one, whether I see you at the Borgata
in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun at the Encore in Boston,
Plain Ridge Park Casino, MGM Springfield at the Nash in
Nashville, New Hampshire, or of course, out in the desert with
(27:05):
the true grinders. Get down where Billy Walter
sends his number runners with lowest juice possible is found
at the South Point. So in sharp Contrane plays,
jumping in the stadium swimming pool, when you catch a big
ticket at Circo, you're going towalk up to me.
Orioles, Brewers, total trash. RIP them up, recycle those
tickets, but show me a socks ticket.
Nice 13 to 1 winner there. I'm still annoyed we couldn't
(27:26):
get the Orioles though. What are you going to do?
But anyway, guys, first one's onme, next one's on you.
Will post about the book Sweat Sharp Contrane plays all night
long. So wish you the best of luck
everyone. As always, 1 and 2, two and one,
three and OO and three. Hot, cold grinding somewhere in
the middle. We just got to stick to it,
stick to the model, stick to theblueprint.
Make data-driven bets with our head and not our heart.
(27:48):
And hey, if we can do that, I think we're going to be
successful sports bettors. So find those system matches
against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
avoid parlays, get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
to come out on top in the end. So enjoy the return of the NFL.
Let's root for some points. Hope we can get an over here
tonight and go red legs, go Mariners and then I'll see you
(28:11):
guys back tomorrow for Big Friday edition, episode 328 of
the All Systems go sports betting podcast powered by
rhythm. Good luck everybody, and have a
great, great night tonight, guys.
Good luck.
Hello, and welcome to episode 327 of the All Systems Go sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Thirsty Thursday. It is the final day in the month
(00:40):
of July before we turn the page to August.
It's also a huge day cuz it's the MLB trade deadline.
But most importantly, guys, unless you've been living under
a rock, maybe you don't know. Maybe you do know.
You probably know cuz you're a sports bettor and you pay
attention to what's going on. But guess what?
Today is today is the return of the NFL.
That's right, we have an NFL game, an official game.
(01:03):
Yes, it's pre season, yes, it's the Hall of Fame game, but it is
a real NFL game. The lines are up, the splits are
out. I got betting system matches.
We have an actual NFL football game to bet on tonight.
Chargers and the Detroit Lions in the annual Hall of Fame game,
8:00 tonight. So that's pretty exciting.
Obviously, MLB trade deadline today.
If you're a baseball fan like me, you're wondering what your
(01:24):
team's going to do. Are my Red Sox going to make a
move? Who knows, but there's only
three games today. Now I do have a three pack of
sweats for you. There are two MLB games later
today that I do have a play on with some good sharp line
movement. But I do have a play on what
you're most excited about the NFL Hall of Fame game.
So I'm going to give you kind ofa word of caution on the side.
But I do have a play on the total and the total is very
(01:47):
interesting. It's been on the move.
We got some good bet splits. When you hear about this coach
to the over under might be a little bit excited to play this
one. And also a really good sharp
mush edge from our friends at Juice Rails.
So believe it or not, even though we're kind of glued to
baseball, we have some football to bet tonight.
And you know what? My wife actually called me on
her lunch break today and she said, you know, do you want to
(02:09):
go meet me and my mom, my mother-in-law out at the mall
tonight because we got some returns and we do some shopping.
And I was like, well, you know, do you mind if I don't come?
And she's like, oh, no worries. No, no, not at all.
So secretly I'm like, yes, I getto go to Chipotle, pick up a
burrito bowl, come home, sweat the games here with with me and
the pup as I wait for the wife to get home.
(02:30):
So I guess when you're, you're married in your late 30s, these
are the things that excite you. But anyway, guys, 3 pack overall
play on the Hall of Fame game and two plays here in Major
League Baseball. Now looking back toward last
night, kind of a frustrating night. 1 and 2 -, 1 unit.
We did have the Red Sox come through with a big winner, 13 to
one, Really didn't have to sweatthat one at all.
But we lost with the Brewers, pretty much a no show.
(02:52):
They got rolled by the Cubs and the one that was frustrating was
the Orioles because the Orioles had that late movement in their
favor. They jumped out to a three
nothing lead. They got down, came back and
went went up five to three and then their bullpen completely
imploded. I think they gave up like 5 or
six runs in the 7th or 8th inning.
And then they made me have a a glimmer of hope as they mounted
(03:13):
a big comeback only to come up short.
And it was frustrating too. If if you're watching this game
is the Orioles had bases loaded 2 outs and the guy basically
should have walked the stupid idiot umpire.
Bring on the robots. Idiot umpire calls it a called
strike 3 when if you look at thelittle rectangle the the K zone,
the ball was pretty clearly outside.
(03:35):
So that was that was kind of annoying.
But either way, guys, we're going to keep on grinding here.
See if we can start our our NFL year off 1 and O that'll be a
nice start to the year with a couple baseball games here as
well. So that being said, let's waste
no time and start with not baseball.
I'm going to leave that to the second-half of the pod here.
Let's start with some NFL football.
(03:56):
So I want to talk first real quick about betting preseason
games and betting Hall of Fame games because you're going to
get a very different take from your friends, your your fellow
gamblers. And I don't think there's a
right or wrong when it comes to betting preseason, but I do
think you want to pick a lane. And what do I mean by pick a
lane? What I mean is that I would
either be totally into it, you know, bet these games, track
(04:19):
these numbers and there's a lot of information based bets we
want to take advantage of, whichbasically means, you know, what
are the coaches telling us in terms of who's going to play and
who isn't? Or I think you want to lay off
entirely. I don't think you just want to,
you know, put your toe in to thewater here and there.
You're either all in or all out.Now if you're all out, that's
OK. You can still break down the
games. You can write down, excuse me,
(04:39):
in a notebook what you would have bet.
And you can also kind of brush up on getting re acclimated to
betting the NFL. And I think there is an
advantage to betting pre season because whether you, you know,
get down or not have an officialbet, you're still training your
brain to sweat spread sports andyou know, like football.
Think about key numbers again. So I think there's definitely
some some value there. Now I'm of the the former, not
(05:04):
the latter. I love betting pre season.
And a reason for that is if you look or you kind of think about
what the odds makers are tellingyou and what the sharps are
telling you, it's not a secret anymore.
But pros love betting the preseason because big advantage
here is that the the coaches aregoing to come out and tell you
exactly what they're doing. So for example, tonight we've
(05:24):
already had Harbaugh come out and say Trey Lance is going to
start. He's probably going to play the
entire first half. He may even play a series in the
second quarter. You have the lions coming out
and saying, hey, no Jared Goff tonight.
No, I'm on Ross St. Brown, no Gibbs, but Hendon
Hooker and Kyle Allen are going to be our starting are being are
two quarterbacks here to battle out for the the backup job.
(05:46):
So no other time of year are yougoing to get this type of
information. The other angle here is if you
talk to odds makers, they hate booking the pre season because
the numbers are usually pretty short.
You know, the spreads going to be like 1234 really not much
more than like four or five points.
And these numbers can really move based on you know,
information coming out based upon who's playing and who
(06:06):
isn't. So the fact that pros will come
out and tell you they love betting pre season and the odds
makers say they hate booking preseason, you got to think to
yourself if they love betting booking pre season, that's
probably because they make a killing.
If they don't like it, it's probably because they you know,
they might take a hit because it's harder to to cap these
games and the pros have an edge.So with that being said, I like
(06:28):
betting the pre season. Now this is a Hall of Fame game,
so it's kind of its own animal here, but there are some
interesting things to talk aboutfor this game.
I do have a play for you, so I'mgoing to give you first my angle
here, that lean but layoff or I'm just not betting this at
all, which would be the side because if you look at the side
in this game, let's just kind ofbreakdown this game like we
(06:50):
would any other game. We open this game basically
Detroit around a 1 1/2 point favorite.
They're technically the home team, but there's a neutral site
game and basically this line is kind of been back and forth.
One point it got down to 1, now it's back up to 1 1/2.
You have a couple shops like Circa out in Vegas who are at
2:00, but basically from open toclose or open to current, it
(07:13):
really hasn't moved any at all. Now if we look at what the
betting market is doing here, DraftKings, 65% of bets are
taking the Lions. So you could kind of say to
yourself, hey, everyone's playing Lions, but yet the line
really hasn't moved much. Yes, there are some 1 and halfs
up to two, but really hasn't moved much off the opener.
So I don't want to be with the public.
(07:35):
I'm a contrarian better by nature.
Obviously in last year was not agood year for contrarian
betters. It was a huge outlier where you
had a ton of favorites and overshit.
It was the best public year I think in like 15 years.
But as a data-driven contrarian,better I'm not going to be with
the drunk guys at the bar. Who are saying just lay with the
lions? It's so short.
Play the Lions. Lions may win, Lions may cover,
(07:57):
but as a again, contrarian better.
I don't want to be with the public and basically a line that
hasn't really moved at all. The other angle here is if you
look at preseason dogs that are +3 or less, they're covering 61%
of the time since I think since 2018.
So basically that would tell youto play the Chargers.
The other angle here is, I must admit, I do have a lot of
(08:21):
respected people, sharp betters who like the Chargers tonight as
well. So the fact that the Lions are
public, the Chargers are in a good betting system, +3 or less
dogs, again, covering nearly 2/3of the time, and a lot of
respected wise guys are playing the Chargers.
This is a layoff for me. I really don't see a clear edge
one way or the other. And there's also a stat out
(08:41):
there on on who is it? Dan Campbell, I think he's three
and six ATS in the preseason. Also, crazy things happen
second-half when no one really cares who's going to win or not.
And you got third, fourth stringplayers out there.
So first angle here is I'm not playing the side.
I am, however, going to play thetotal and it may surprise you a
bit. I'm going over in this game
(09:02):
guys, over 33 1/2. Now here's my logic to play the
over. First off, what are we seeing
across the market? Will this total open 32 1/2?
At one point there were some books I thought I saw like a 32
maybe. And then it kind of crept backed
up and and really stayed at 32 1/2.
But over the last 24 hours, we've seen it get up to 3333
(09:23):
1/2. And even today you're seeing
some books go to 34. So it's pretty clear here, late
movement, which is notable to me.
Limits are raised, bigger bets come in, is playing this over.
So on game day, the total isn't falling, it's rising.
Tells me we got some respect andmoney going over.
The other angle here is shop around because currently what I
got was over 33 1/2 at -110 standard juice at FanDuel.
(09:47):
But a lot of books are over 33 1/2 -, 115 and a lot of books
are at 34. And if you look at circa,
they're at 34. They're pretty sharp books.
So they're kind of higher than the market.
Remember in the hot dog contest,yes, I'm going to make a
comparison to the hot dog contest, but they had, what was
it, 70 1/2 hot dogs. Rest of the market was 71 1/2.
Basically, they were more bullish on the under.
(10:09):
Well, in this regard, they're kind of more bullish on the over
so late movement and Circa bullish bullishness, is that
even a word? BS Ness is leaning over.
Second angle here is if you lookat the splits, 65% of bets on
the over. Don't love that that is
technically public, but you're getting nearly 75% of the money
on the over. So that would tell me it's not
(10:30):
just dumb average Joes at the bar going over, but some
respective money and the sign iscreeping up.
Next angle for me. If we look at the weather
tonight, yes, football, we got to start thinking about the
weather. 65°, no precipitation, very mild winds, 5 to 10 mph.
So there's no rain, there's no wind, really nothing to worry
(10:52):
about. So we have a perfect night at,
what is it, Tom Benson Stadium next?
If we look at the last three years when it comes to this Hall
of Fame game. Now, it used to be back in the
day. I remember when I first started
in the betting industry, my first job was sports Insights.
Now I got hired way back in 2011, but at one point it was
(11:13):
like just always play the under in the Hall of Fame game because
typically you see low scoring games.
If we look at the under, let me see if I can find this from,
let's see, 2006 all the way to just a few years ago. 20/21 the
under was 123456789 and four. So the under did very well.
(11:40):
However, last three years the over is 3 and O three years ago,
Jags Raiders 27 to 1138 points year after that Browns Jets
2116. I remember that one because I
was actually on my honeymoon in in Cancun.
I remember watching it on this little little bar and I was like
one of the only Americans who cared about that game because I
(12:00):
played it. But that was a total of the
other angle here is the totals have risen.
So like 3 years ago was 30 and ahalf 33 and a half 3334.
So if we look at again, the lastthree years and last year was
Texans, Bears, that was 2117, we've averaged 38 points a game.
So we do have that kind of recent trend to the over next.
(12:24):
Dan Campbell, if you dig into Dan Campbell in the preseason,
he's 8:00 and 4:00 to the over 67%.
So again, you've seen these higher scoring games.
I mentioned Trey Lance playing the whole first half.
I think that's a good thing for offense.
Yes, he was a high draft pick, pretty much a bust, but he's got
some experience. He's trying to show out.
He's going to get a lot of time.It's not like it's a four string
(12:46):
rookie playing. So hopefully he's got some
offense out of Trey Lance. Then I mentioned the quarterback
battle, Hendon Hooker, remember he was a stud at Tennessee.
I think he blew out his knee andKyle Allen, a pretty good
veteran. They're both playing and they're
battling for the backup job. So it's to their incentive or to
their benefit to play well and put up points.
So we've built this case where the late money is going over low
(13:08):
bets hired, all our bets split to the over.
We have bullish 34 at Circa lastthree years the total has gone
over. We have great weather.
We have Campbell 67% to the overin the preseason, Trey Lance and
a quarterback battle. Then a little cherry on top, I
pop open Juice Rail and our friends at Juice Rail go to the
sharp mush edge for this total 24% sharp mush edge to the OVA.
(13:34):
So that tells me everyone who has downloaded Juice Rail and
all the sharper winning batters who have synced up their books
are also leaning over. So you got all up here guys, and
we got an opportunity here to sweat this over tonight.
Now again, you really got to getthat 33 1/2.
You hate to see it land right on34.
You know, also you get some missed extra points, you know,
(13:55):
going for going for two, maybe we're going to see some
turnovers, which would be nice and short fields.
But you got it all up here. I think there's an opportunity
from a data-driven perspective to play this over.
So the first bet of the year forme, Hall of Fame game, call me
call me crazy or not for bettingit, but I think we built a case
from a data-driven perspective to root for points and play this
(14:16):
over. So I'm officially on Chargers
Lions Hall of Fame game tonight,8:00 over 33 1/2 -, 110 at
FanDuel. Now let's turn the page and get
right back to betting Major League Baseball.
I know we're all excited about the football game tonight.
We still got some baseball here on in on the slate.
(14:37):
So 2 plays overall, both big steam moves.
Let's see if we can get at leastone.
If we can get both, that'd be even better.
So first one on the board for me.
Let's look at a 7:10 PM Eastern Time.
First pitch we got the Braves visiting the Cincinnati Red
Legs. So setting the stage for this
one. The Braves come in 45 and 62.
Just dropped two or three against the Royals.
(14:57):
They lost the series finale yesterday. 1 nothing in extras
as a + 100 Rd. dog. You know all the red legs 57 and
52 just lost two or three against the Dodgers.
Avoided the sweep though they won the series finale yesterday.
5:00 to 2:00 as a + 140 home dog.
So pitching match up for tonight.
We have the Braves going with the recently acquired Carlos
Carrasco. Remember him?
(15:18):
He's 38 years old. He had a lot of good years with
the Guardians, two and two 5.91 ERA.
He was just picked up recently because the Braves are are
decimated pitching staff that made a trade for Eric Fetti as
well. But the Reds meanwhile, are
going to go with the lefty Andrew Abbott, who's been really
good this year. 8 and 1 two point O 9 ERA.
So what are you seeing across the market?
(15:40):
Well, we open this game red legsaround a -, 160 home favorite,
the Braves around a + 135 Rd. dog and we've seen nothing but
steam in favor of Cincinnati. Let's go Pete Rose.
The Reds have gone from -160 nowall the way up to -185 some
shops even now -190 now if you sign up to get the official best
(16:01):
bets from Juice Reel, $4.99 a week.
I put in Reds -175 earlier today.
So if you bet it earlier, you'refeeling pretty good with some
CLV. Yes, the price is getting more
expensive, but also tells you there's continued action on the
red legs. I really like the Reds bet
splits. If you look at DraftKings, 73%
of money line bets, 83% of moneyline dollars.
(16:24):
And then over at Circa in Vegas,70% of bets, nearly 80% of
dollars. So we got a pro and Joe low
bets, higher dollar split at both DraftKings and Circa on
Cincinnati. Then we look at some system
matches lit up here on Cincinnati.
You got 3 pretty good ones. Non division home favorites off
a win, getting line movement in their favor.
Very simple. 183 and 9965 percent, 5% ROI this year.
(16:48):
Thursday home favorites -175 or more. 18 and six this year. 75
percent, 8% ROI. Home favorites with big steam,
$0.20 or more in the opening game of a new series. 62 and
2571 percent, 9% ROI. So 3 pretty good system matches
there on the Reds. Dig a little deeper into Abbott.
(17:10):
The Reds are 13 and five and Abbott's 18 starts.
He's given up 1 earned run or less and 14 of his eighteen
starts overall at home. Four and one 1.93 ERA.
Meanwhile, the Braves only hitting 230 against lefties this
year. That ranks 21st in baseball.
You know, Carrasco, he actually hasn't pitched since May 4th and
(17:30):
he has allowed three earned runsor more in five of his eight
starts. If you look at the Reds just
recently, last 10 games, they'reonly five and five, but they're
hitting 245. Team ERA of 3.62, Braves last
10-2 and eight to 224. Batting average, 652 ERA.
We also have the Reds 32 and 24 at home, you know, decent home
(17:51):
record. Braves are only 19 and 36 on the
road. That's the fourth worst Rd.
record in baseball. And also add today's the trade
deadline. Braves have a Cunha who's
injured. There's rumors Ozuna could get
dealt. The Reds are picking up guys,
keep Ryan Hayes and they picked up Zach Littell from Tampa Bay
and I think they picked up a reliever maybe.
(18:12):
So you have one team that's getting big steam and is buying
other team that's kind of get getting steamed against and is
in cell mode. Add it all up here, guys.
There's an opportunity here to root for the Pete Rose Red Legs.
I got a -175 again. Looks like your best number
right now is around -185 at BET MGM.
Last bed of the night. Staying up late.
(18:33):
Let's go out to the AL West and the West Coast, get some sushi
and root for the Mariners. Seattle Mariners hosting the
Texas Rangers now. Rangers come in 57 and 52, just
lost two or three against the Halos, but did avoid the sweep
they won yesterday. Six to three as a -, 125 Rd.
favorite. You know all the M's.
Same record, 57 and 52. Just dropped two or three
(18:55):
against the A's. Excuse me, Lost 5 to 4 yesterday
as a -150 Rd. favorite. So pitching match up for
tonight. We have the Rangers going with
the ready Kumar Rocker. He's four and four with a 5.73
ERA. You know all the M's going with
fellow ready George Kirby. Five and five 4.5 OERA.
What have you seen across the market here?
(19:17):
Well, if you like Cincy, I thinkyou like Seattle.
Another big home favorite that'sgetting steamed.
Seattle open this game around a -. 150 home favorite.
Texas around a + 130 Rd. Dog and sharps have pounded the
Mariners. They've gone from -150 up to
-175 some looks, even -180 I jumped on Seattle -170 at
(19:39):
Caesar's little bit earlier today.
If you look at the splits at DraftKings, 66% of bets, but a
little more than 70% of the money is on Seattle.
So a little bit of a wise guy. Low bets, higher dollar split,
system match. We love Thursday.
Home favorites -175 or more. 18 and 675% this year. 8% ROI and
(19:59):
the same system match with Cincyas well.
Home favorites with Big Steam $0.20 or more in their favor in
the opening game of a new series. 62 and 2571%.
With a 9% ROI, we do have some correlative betting value in
favor of the Ms. because they'rearound a -, 175 home favorite
and the total is very low 7 1/2.So fair amount of expected run
(20:22):
scored. More likely to come from quote
UN quote that better team. I'm going to bank on the
Mariners bats hopefully getting to Rocker.
They're hitting 245 on the year,152 homers, 492 run scored.
Rangers hitting two 33116 homers, 452 run scored.
Now Kirby in the month of July, he's made four starts, 3.86 ERA.
(20:45):
Seattle is 7 and two in his lastnine starts.
Rockers made four starts in July, 4.95 ERA and he is only
one and four with a 9.91 ERA on the road.
He's he's, I think it was what was he second overall pick?
I know he's in the first round, but you know, decent at home,
struggle on the road. You see that a lot with young
pitchers. Mariners, meanwhile, 28 and 24
(21:07):
at home, Rangers only 23 and 32 on the road.
Seattle is 7 and two against theRangers this year.
So hope that continues here tonight.
And Texas, I don't know if they've made many moves like
they just dealt away a reliever,but Seattle just made a big
trade for Eugenio Suarez. So they added Josh Naylor.
They added Suarez, who's hit a ton of home runs this year.
(21:28):
I don't know if Suarez is in thelineup tonight yet, hasn't been
released, but maybe those are good vibes that they're, they're
going for it. And that trickles in throughout
the locker room. We got it all up here, guys.
Big steam on the Reds, big steamon Seattle.
Laying it here with both of them.
I got Seattle again -170 at Caesar's.
Shop around a lot of books now -175 -, 180 So that about does
(21:51):
it for episode 327 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
podcast. And can I just say what a
pleasure it is to break down an NFL game?
Boy, did I miss betting the NFL.Before you know it, we got
college football returning as well.
But anyway, guys, this is the part of the pod where we wrap
things up. And I start first by saying
thank you. Thank you for taking the time
(22:11):
out of your day, out of your busy lives to pull up a chair to
the virtual bar and sweat some sharp data-driven breakdowns
with me. If you do enjoy the pod, you
want to help me grow the pod, let me know you appreciate the
insights. Would you please consider giving
it a five star review on Spotifyor iTunes?
If you want to leave a nice comment under the review section
or click the follow button, recommend the pod to a friend.
(22:32):
That would also be fantastic. Next, if you enjoy the style of
betting breakdown data-driven sharp can train betting you
notice we. Didn't say you're late with
Detroit cuz. Cuz the Lions are the balls, no?
We're breaking down games based on data, not bias and
favoritism. But this style of betting has
appealed to you. You've kind of had a light go
off in your head that hey, you know, there's a market we can
(22:52):
track here. Will the market get every game
right? No, because betting is really
hard and it's unpredictable. That's why they call it
gambling. You're taking a gamble on an
unknown outcome. But this style of betting does
provide you a blueprint that overtime over the long haul, it
is productive. So if you want to learn more
about data-driven betting, if you want to learn and get ready
(23:12):
to bet the NFL season, well, guess what, There are two books.
Go to Amazon.com and type in these two books, the Everything
Guide to Sports Betting and the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook.
My two books here, one's been out for a few years now at this
point, the Everything guide, it's got everything I've learned
in the industry, how lines are set, how and why they move, how
to read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to
(23:33):
place a bet in person or online,how to shop for the best line,
how to set up a bankroll management plan.
Then the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook, which comes out August
12th, which is crazy. It's what is it 12 days away.
Can't believe it. But if you'd like to pre-order a
copy of the sharp betting playbook or grab a copy of the
(23:53):
everything guide. It will mean a lot to me.
And you will also get a free drink from me when I see at the
book. And I must say next week I'm
spending four days at Mohegan Sun because my brother-in-law is
a it's he's a comic comic book writer and it's terrific on and
it's at Mohegan Sun. So maybe I'll see you at Mohegan
Sun. We're staying there with him for
four days. Got a hotel room.
(24:15):
I'll be sweating games there. And they're actually they're
running a cool promo where if you bet a $25 future or more,
you get a free, a free bucket of, of Bud Lights.
So I'm looking, I'm very much looking forward to that.
But anyway, grab the NFL sharp betting playbook, the everything
guide to sports betting. Bring him to the book.
I'll sign him for you. I'll buy you a beer.
I'll give you one of my Bud Lights from my my futures bucket
(24:37):
next. Have you downloaded Rhythm and
Juice real yet? Well, if you haven't, now is the
time because today when the Hallof Fame game comes here, guys,
it's telling you it's about to get busy.
Football is pretty much back. So you need these two apps
because they're great and they're going to help you to add
to your data-driven toolkit first with rhythm, data-driven
(24:58):
AI recommended plays for game bets and player props and Juice
Reel of course, where you can sign up to get the all systems
go. Best bet picks for $4.99 a week
to support the pod. You get these plays earlier,
hopefully beat some closing lines.
You're also going to get the Robo Jackson best bet picks, the
sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays, the shop for
the best line futures all available when you download
(25:19):
juice reel. So download rhythm download
juice reel. You'll be off and running making
sharp bets and make sure you give them a five star review in
the App Store as well. Next to last odds logic.
You need a live odds page. I was giving you the line
movement with, you know, the chargers, Detroit, obviously the
baseball games. I get it from odds logic.
Odds Logic gives me all the games, it gives me the opening
(25:41):
line, the current numbers I can identify Steam.
I noticed how that total was creeping up.
You're also going to get a full line history breakdown live in
game wagering. You're also going to get great
notifications if a guy gets scratched or an injury.
Really so many great features ofthe Odds Logic live odds page.
So I would love for you guys to sign up for Odds Logic and just
(26:03):
give it a shot. 7 day free trial.
If you like it, you get 50% off your first month.
You just got to make sure you use this this link here.
Odds logic.com/josh 123 again, odds logic.com/josh 123.
So that about does it everybody.Episode 327 now in the books,
Football's back. It's a rainy day for me in
(26:24):
Boston, outskirts of Boston, butI will take that over the 100°
days. My lawn boy didn't need water.
So again, you see what I'm excited about.
Rain for my lawn, going to Chipotle, sweating the games
alone with my dog. I love my wife, but I'm OK.
She's going to let me sweat the game tonight by myself.
But that that, that's life when you're late 30s.
(26:45):
And you know what? I love it.
I'm excited about it. But anyway, guys, two final
thoughts as we depart one, whether I see you at the Borgata
in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun at the Encore in Boston,
Plain Ridge Park Casino, MGM Springfield at the Nash in
Nashville, New Hampshire, or of course, out in the desert with
(27:05):
the true grinders. Get down where Billy Walter
sends his number runners with lowest juice possible is found
at the South Point. So in sharp Contrane plays,
jumping in the stadium swimming pool, when you catch a big
ticket at Circo, you're going towalk up to me.
Orioles, Brewers, total trash. RIP them up, recycle those
tickets, but show me a socks ticket.
Nice 13 to 1 winner there. I'm still annoyed we couldn't
(27:26):
get the Orioles though. What are you going to do?
But anyway, guys, first one's onme, next one's on you.
Will post about the book Sweat Sharp Contrane plays all night
long. So wish you the best of luck
everyone. As always, 1 and 2, two and one,
three and OO and three. Hot, cold grinding somewhere in
the middle. We just got to stick to it,
stick to the model, stick to theblueprint.
Make data-driven bets with our head and not our heart.
(27:48):
And hey, if we can do that, I think we're going to be
successful sports bettors. So find those system matches
against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
avoid parlays, get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
to come out on top in the end. So enjoy the return of the NFL.
Let's root for some points. Hope we can get an over here
tonight and go red legs, go Mariners and then I'll see you
(28:11):
guys back tomorrow for Big Friday edition, episode 328 of
the All Systems go sports betting podcast powered by
rhythm. Good luck everybody, and have a
great, great night tonight, guys.
Good luck.
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