August 1, 2025 • 25 mins
In Episode 328, Josh dishes out a 3-pack of MLB plays for Friday night.
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Josh's new book "The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook" comes out on August 12, 2025
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:19):
Hello and welcome to episode 328of the All Systems Go Sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Friday, our work week is coming to an end.
We're also saying hello to the month of August.
(00:41):
It is officially August 1st. We got our first NFL winner of
the year last night in the Hall of Fame game.
Love that. Over 33 1/2.
Remember that total open 32 1/2 got up to 33 1/2.
We had Circa which was bullish. I made the comparison with the
hot dog contest how every book was 71 1/2 or even 72 and Circa
(01:03):
was 70 1/2 I believe. So anytime a sharp book like
that is kind of leaning one way more so than the entire market,
always an indicator. And then we had some good bet
splits. We had Dan Campbell 8:00 and
4:00 to the over. We had the over 3 and over the
last three years we had great weather.
Shout out to our friends at Juice Reel with the sharp mush
edge 24% to the over. And wouldn't you know it, we're
(01:24):
able to cash that one, which wasgreat to see as we start off our
NFL betting this year 1 and O, which is always a good sign.
And this is also a way to say, hey, people that make fun of you
say what are you? What are you doing betting the?
Preseason What are you? Degenerate.
No, no, no. We check the data, we make data
and driven bets. If we don't have a case to bet a
game, we lay off, but there's a pretty compelling case for that
(01:46):
over and we were able to cash it.
So I love seeing that. So after that winner last night
in the NFL, you might be saying,hey, when's our next sweat?
I'm looking right now. It looks like on Thursday, next
Thursday, August 7th, 3 pack of pre season games.
So getting excited. It's about the pre season and
make information based bets. Looking toward today.
(02:06):
Guys do have a three pack of Emily Sweats for you.
No, no football to get down on, but a full slate of MLB trade
deadline is over. We had the buyers, the sellers,
teams like the Mariners, Padres,Phillies, Mets making a bunch of
moves, the Twins and the D backscompletely selling off.
We've got a three pack for todayso we can finish off the week
and go 2 and one take out a winning day.
(02:27):
Looking toward last night. That's exactly what we did. 2
and 1 + 0.5 units. So got 1/2 unit.
We'll take it. I mentioned the winner there at
the Chargers in Detroit. Getting back to betting the NFL,
which was great, had another winner there with the Mariners.
Late night really wasn't a sweatthere.
They won 6 to nothing. What kept us from a clean sweep
was the Reds. And you know what's frustrating
about the Reds game? They got up 3 I believe was 3,
(02:49):
nothing early. Their bullpen completely
implodes and they give up eight runs.
I think it was the 7th or 8th inning.
They come back and score eight runs to tie it only to lose by
one run in extra inning. So the Reds are a bit of a tease
and don't you know anytime you this is like it's so insane
baseball how much how often thishappens.
Bet the Reds last night they lose today.
(03:10):
You could set your watch to it. Of course they won three to two.
There was a line move. I don't know if anyone played
Reds earlier today, but either way, guys two and one got 1/2
unit last night got our first winner in the NFL.
Let's see if we can reinvest it to today and steam into the
weekend, hopefully with a littlebit of a hot streak.
That being said, as I mentioned,3 pack today guys, 2 short
favorites, one bigger favorite. One team in particular has a
(03:32):
really good sharp mush edge. So without further ado, let's
waste no more time and get rightinto it.
Hopefully have a winning day in baseball.
So first, but on the board for me, let's go out to the Big
Apple. New York Mets hosting the San
Francisco G Men 7:10 PM Eastern Time.
First pitch, let's set the stage.
Talk line movement, split systemmatches.
I'll give him my play for this one.
(03:53):
So going into it, we got the G men 54 and 55.
They've lost six straight. Just got swept by the Pirates.
Man at home getting swept by thePirates.
Lost that series finale 2 to oneas a -, 210 home favorite.
I believe the record is something like 13 and 25 since
picking up Raffi Devers and theysold off a couple guys yesterday
as well, Ystromsky and Rogers. But I mean look at the mats 62
(04:16):
and 47. They also just got swept by the
pods. They lost that series finale 5.
Nothing as a + 100 Rd. dog. But the Mets did buy, picking up
Cedric Mullins, center fielder from the Orioles, and they also
picked up Rodgers, Helsley and Soto.
Some bullpen arms. For tonight's series opener, the
Giants are going with the lefty Robbie Ray.
He's nine and five with a 2.93 ERA.
(04:39):
Meanwhile, the Mets going with the fellow southpaw David
Peterson, seven and four, 2.83 ERA.
So what have we seen across the market for this one?
This game open, Mets around a -,135 home favorite San Fran A +
115 row dog and sharps are saying let's get the Mets back
on track. Let's fade the reeling in, in
(05:00):
fire sailing San Francisco Giants because we've seen the
Mets creep up -135 up to -140 now most books are -145 even
-150 it's not a massive, you know, $0.20 the move.
What about 10-15 cents in favor of the Mets?
Now if you look at circa pretty good split, 67% bets, over 70%
(05:20):
of dollars are coming in on the Mets.
So it tells us out in Vegas thatwise guy money going with the
line move in favor of New York. I do have a bunch of system
matches lit up on the the Mets here.
Here are a few of them. When both teams are coming off a
loss, which is the case here, take the team getting $0.10 of
line movement or more in their favor.
Those teams are 43 and 2662 percent. 8% ROI When both teams
(05:44):
are coming off a day off again applies here as well.
The favorite is 98 and 5763% with a 4% ROI.
Then if you isolate the Mets in particular, yeah, they got swept
on the road recently, last series against the pods, they've
been really good at home in particular when they are a home
favorite. 33 and 1273 percent, 16% ROI.
(06:05):
That is the second best home team and all of baseball.
You might be asking yourself who's number one, Believe it or
not, it's the Texas Rangers. On top of the line move the
splits the system matches. The Mets are also a correlative
betting play here because they are around a -, 145 home
favorite with a low total of 7 1/2 in The under is actually
juiced around -120 So fair amount of expected runs scored,
(06:28):
more likely to come from quote UN quote, that better team.
Hopefully the Mets bats get going here.
I didn't see anything about JuanSoto.
He got hit in the hand, I think,or he got injured a few days
ago. He's been off a couple days.
Hope he's in the lineup tonight.But overall, the Mets, they're
hitting two 41135 homers, 473 runs scored.
You'll get the G men hitting two32101 homers, 443 runs scored.
(06:52):
In particular, we got a couple lefties on the bump.
The Mets aren't amazing against lefties, only hitting 226, but
the Giants are hitting 215 against lefties.
That's dead last in all of baseball.
Dig a little deeper into Peterson.
Knock on wood. Hope he pitches well tonight.
But he posted a one point O 5 ERA in four July starts.
Only gave up three runs, three earned runs in 25.2 innings
(07:16):
pitch and at home 5 and O 1.91 ERA at Citi Field.
Meanwhile, Robbie Ray is having a good year, but kind of
pedestrian in the month of July.Made 5 starts, 3.52 ERA, giving
up twelve runs in 30.2 innings pitched.
And then just some classic home Rd.
We got the Mets 37 and 16 at home.
One of the better home teams in baseball.
(07:37):
G men 26 and 29 on the road. So we got a line move toward the
Mets. We got some good splits.
Tons of system matches here. Hopefully better offense.
Hope Soto's in the lineup. And then, of course, we got a
correlative betting favorite, low total on a team that bought
and hopefully again today, teamsthat bought.
Does that give you a little momentum, a little juice?
Your team, you know, your organization believes in you
(08:00):
versus A-Team like San Fran, who's kind of selling off here.
So maybe that's a little supplementary factor.
But sticking with the data, looks to me like a Mets play
tonight, So I'm laying with New York.
I got the Mets at -140 I believethat's not available anymore.
But looks like your best price is -144 at FanDuel.
Shop around against some books as high as -145 -, 150.
(08:21):
But let's go Mets next one for you. 7:10 PM Eastern Time first
pitch. The Minnesota Twins visiting the
Cleveland Guardians setting the stage for this one.
The Twins 51 and 57 just droppedtwo or three against the Red Sox
lost that series finale 13 to 1 as a -125 home favorite or on
the Twins in a second. On the other hand, the Guardians
(08:44):
54 and 54500 club did just take two or three though against the
Rockies. They won that series finale 5 to
nothing as a -180 home favorite.So pitching match up here for
tonight. Twins are going with the ready
Joe Ryan 10 and five 2.82 ERA. Guardians meanwhile going with
fellow ready Gavin Williams. He's six and four with a 3.51
(09:05):
ERA. So what do you see across the
market here? Will this game open?
The Guardians listed as a very short -115 home favorite
Minnesota around a -, 1 O 5 Rd. Rd. dog and we've seen nothing
but movement in favor of the guardians.
Guardians of getting gotten crept up here or have crept up
-115 now up to -120 -, 125. I jumped on the guards at -120
(09:29):
at FanDuel again, shop around some books or most of the market
at -125 and the thought process here for me is Minnesota Twins
just traded away. I think it was like something
like 40% of the roster, pretty much all their bullpen arms, a
ton of their offensive players. I really don't understand
keeping Joe Ryan. Like if you're going to fire
sail, why not trade him too? As a Sox fan, there's a rumor he
(09:51):
was going to get dealt to the Sox and it never materialized.
But I think that might be the angle.
Just, you know, Minnesota's firesail mode.
Korea too, who got traded. I think there was a quote where
like everyone's leaving and he'slike, I got to get out of here.
So what kind of what kind of vibes does that send in the
locker room? So I want to bet against the
Twins after completely mailing it in at the trade deadline.
Whereas Cleveland technically 500 team still in the playoff
(10:14):
race. Aside from the line move toward
the Cleveland Guardians, we alsohave a pretty good bet split 66%
of bets, 78% of dollars at DraftKings and at Circa.
Out in Vegas, 65% of bets over 90% of dollars on Cleveland.
So good low bets, higher dollar split at both the Wiseguy Vegas
book Circa and national public book DraftKings.
(10:37):
A bunch of system matches on Cleveland.
Some of them are going to be a repeat of the Mets, but both
teams coming off a day off. Take the favorite 98 and 5763
percent, 4% ROI this year. Home favorites off a win,
getting line movement in their favor who also made the playoffs
the previous year. I know it's a mouthful, but it's
kind of straightforward. 134 and6767 percent, 5% ROI.
(11:02):
Also the Guardians 18 and 1064 percent 6% ROI as a home
favorite. I believe that's I think 9th or
10th best in baseball and as a home favorite with a line move
there 11 and 569 percent 14% ROI.
Cleveland does have that correlative betting that just
matched with the Mets because it's a very low total of 7
actually open 7 1/2 got bet downto seven.
(11:24):
So if your amount of expected run scored more likely to come
from quote UN quote that better team.
Not going to lie, Joe Ryan's a good pitcher got got a bunch of
good numbers. But Williams no slouch, 5 and 2
three-point O 5 ERA at home thisyear.
He's at home tonight, hopefully pitches well.
And last 10. Cleveland six and four hitting
271, three .33 team ERA. Minnesota four and six over the
(11:47):
last 10, only hitting 2:45 with a 5.61 ERA.
Also the Guards 27 and 26 at home.
Nothing amazing, but you know, about 500 Twins, 21 and 33 on
the road. And then a little cherry on top
for the Guardians play tonight, popped open the Juice Reel app.
Remember they had a 24% sharp mush edge on that Hall of Fame
game over last night. Well, I noticed a 31% sharp mush
(12:11):
edge in favor of the Guardians telling us the bigger, sharper
wagers who have downloaded JuiceReel synced up their books.
They're fading the Twins in the spot as well.
So we got a team that just sold off almost all their players.
Cleveland still got something tofight for.
Line move, splits, system matches, sharp mush edge from
Juice Reel. I laid it with the guardians
-120 at FanDuel again. Shop around.
(12:34):
Most of the market around -125 last bit of the night, Let's go
out to sunny San Diego. 9:40 PM Eastern Time, first pitch, Saint
Louis Cardinals visiting the SanDiego fathers.
So going to it, we got the cards55 and 55 dead. 500 here.
Did sell some guys though, some pitchers, Helsley and Steven
(12:54):
Matts and a couple others. Dropped two or three though,
against the Marlins in their last series, lost the final game
in that series. 2 to nothing as a -140 home favorite.
On the other hand, the Padres 60and 49 on the year, they've won
five straight, just swept the Mets.
They won that series finale. 5 nothing as a -, 125 home
favorite. And also they were a team that
(13:14):
was very active. And let me just give a shout out
to, is it AJ Preller, who's the GM of the Padres?
I love this guy. You have all these other GMs. I
don't want to trade these prospects.
It's like, you know, a lot of these prospects never pan out.
He traded a bunch of top prospects, brought in Mason
Miller, that stud flamethrower from the A's, JP Sears, picked
(13:36):
up Ryan O'hearn and Loriano fromthe Mets.
I love what the Padres did yesterday.
So so shout out to AGM who actually likes to go for it
other than my GM Craig Breslow. Can't can't, you know, make any
deals and is afraid to give up any kind of prospects even
though what is it, 80% of prospects don't pan out.
You can tell I'm an annoyed Red Sox fan who's got the over 85
(13:57):
1/2 who was wanting some additions, not just Dustin May
and Matt's. Anyway, pitching match up for
tonight, we got the Cardinals going with the lefty Matthew
Liberator. He's six and eight with a four
point O 4 ERA. Meanwhile, the pods going to go
with the righty Nick Pavetta. He's had a Goodyear 10 and three
2.81 ERA. So what is it across the market
here? Will this game open pods around
(14:19):
a -? 150 home favorite Saint Louis
around a + 130 Rd. Dog and boy have the sharps
pounded the dads tonight. Because we've seen San Diego get
bet up -150 all the way up to -185 a $0.35 Steam move in favor
of San Diego. So much even as high as -190
just a massive, massive adjustment in favor of the
(14:39):
Padres. Tells me a lot of big money came
in on the dads here. Splits look pretty good at DK
84% bets, 86% dollars Pro and Joe on the pods out in Vegas,
79% bets. Over 90% of the money is on the
dads. So further evidence of that
desert sharp action going with San Diego.
I got 8 system matches on the pods.
(15:00):
Lot of matches here. Here's some of the best ones.
Favorites off a win with a winning record, getting $0.05 of
movement or more. Who also made the playoffs the
previous year, 130 and 5869 percent, 7% ROI this year,
Series opening home favorite. So game one of a new series
getting big Steam $0.20 or more,62 and 2571 percent, 9% ROI.
(15:24):
Both teams coming off a day off.Take the favorite again.
That matched a second ago with Cleveland and the Mets.
That is a 63% system with a 4% ROI.
Padres in particular 26 and 1367percent, 11% ROI as a home
favorite. That is the 5th best home chalk
team in all of baseball. San Diego once again has that
(15:44):
correlative betting value favorite almost a -, 200
favorite. So big favorite here with a very
low total of 7 1/2. Few amount of expected run
scored more likely to come from again quote UN quote that better
team who's favorite to win. Pavetta 1.17 ERA in five July
starts only give up 4 earned runs and 30.2 innings pitched
and at home 6 and O2 point O 7 ERA.
(16:07):
Meanwhile, the Barrator he's been going the other way.
He made three starts in July, gave up nine earned runs and
12.1 innings pitch. That's an ERA of over 6 1/2.
And then lastly some home Rd. San Diego 34 and 18.
One of the better home teams in baseball.
Saint Louis Cardinals 23 and 31 on the road.
Definitely struggle. Padres bought at the deadline,
(16:29):
Cardinal sold. Padres are getting big steam
tonight. Great splits and really the my
top system match. I got the most system matches
lit up on San Diego. So even though it's a bit of a
hefty number, you would have loved to have gotten this little
bit earlier. I got San Diego -184 at FanDuel.
But again, shop around. A lot of books are creeping up
toward -190 so the Dads, the Guardians and the Mets see if we
(16:51):
can get 2 out of 3. Eek out a winning day.
Of course, that is the goal. So that about does it for
episode 328 of the all systems go sports betting podcast on the
post deadline day in Major League Baseball and we got
football back in our lives again.
Wasn't it great sweating that over last night?
I'm I'm like, man, you know, I love baseball, but it's it's
nice to have football back. But anyway, guys, it's the part
(17:14):
of the pod where we wrap things up and I start first by saying
thank you. Thank you for taking the time
out of your day, out of your busy lives.
It's the dog days of summer. But the fact that we've been
grinding all summer long, you guys been tuning in, we've been
sweating these data-driven playstogether all summer long.
It means a lot to me. Tells me you want to be a
sharper, better, tells me you value the insights.
That really means a ton to me. If you want to you know, do do a
(17:37):
solid for your boy over here, please would you give this
podcast a five star review on Spotify or iTunes.
If you want to leave a nice comment in the review section.
If you want to click the follow button that way you get alerted
as soon as it drops each day or recommend the pod to a friend
that would also be very much appreciated.
Next, if you enjoy this style ofbetting breakdown, you notice
(17:58):
last night we didn't say take the.
Over because it's fun to root for points and let's just say
take the over. No, we built a case.
We looked at the line movement, the splits, the historical
results, the weather we're able to cash and over again
approaching bets from a data number driven perspective, not a
biased, got In Sync perspective.That's really the whole point of
this podcast cuz we all got thoughts, we all got biases.
(18:21):
Hey, I got favoritism too, but I've learned over time, read the
market, trust the market. The market won't get every game
right, but it's gonna give you ablueprint to win a majority of
your bets. So if you want to learn more
about data-driven betting, or maybe you have a friend of yours
or family member or colleague, someone who wants to get into
sports betting or someone who bets and loses a lot and wants
to get better and sharper, I'd love for you guys to go to
(18:43):
Amazon.com and then type in the everything Guide to Sports
betting. It's the first book ever wrote.
Very proud of it. Great for new betters or
beginners or even intermediate betters, but it really lays out
the data-driven blueprint, how lines are set, how and why they
move, how to read line movement,how to locate sharp action, how
to place a bet in person or online, how to shop for the best
line, how to set up a bankroll management plan, all included in
(19:06):
the Everything Guide to sports betting.
Now while you're picking up the Everything guide in Amazon.com,
stay on Amazon.com and then typein the NFL Sharp Betting
playbook. It's my new book comes out just
it's incredible. Comes out what, 11 days from
now, August 12th, so a week fromTuesday cannot wait.
But if you want to get a leg up on your NFL handicapping, you
(19:27):
want to support the pod, you want to see what I've been
working on for the last three years.
I would love, love, love, love. If you wanted to pre-order a
copy of the every of the NFL sharp betting playbook.
It would mean a ton to me guys, and I think you're going to get
a lot of good insights from it as well.
But whether it's the Everything Guide or the NFL Sharp Betting
playbook, bring them to the sports book.
I'll sign up for you. I'll buy you a beer or ginger
(19:49):
ale. We'll get some nachos.
We'll sweat some baseball games together.
How's that sound? Because that sounds pretty good
to me. Also, have you downloaded Rhythm
and Juice Real yet? Oh, Rhythm.
Fantastic AI backed models and predictions for game bets and
player props. I'm actually finalizing an
announcement here with Rhythm. I got something big planned this
fall with Rhythm and I think I'mgoing to announce it, I believe
(20:12):
next week or the week after. We're getting close here, so
stay tuned. And then also juice reel if you
enjoy this pod and you want to get the all systems go best bet
picks earlier in the day, beat some closing lines, support the
pod again, you're listening thispod for free.
It cost you nothing. So if you want to support the
pod for $4.99 a week, a $5.00 bill, basically a couple a cup
(20:34):
of coffee, I can get those playsand and again, you can tell fade
do whatever you like, but you know, you know, I'm betting
them. You know that's the side that
I'll be sweating, but also the robo Jackson best bet picks, the
sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays the shop for the
best sign futures all available to you in the juice reel app.
So download rhythm, download juice reel.
Give them a five star review in the App Store while you're at
(20:55):
it. Next, do you have a live odds
page? Well, I can't stress enough the
importance of a live odds page because again, without it,
you're flying blind. You got to know all the games
being played that day. What sports are are are
available to you. Was funny as I was I tweeted
this out like, hey, football's back with with the odds logic
live odds page and I totally, you know didn't even really
(21:18):
consider Canadian Football League CFL.
There's CFL lines up there's there's college football lines
up. There's NFL pre season in game
in opening week lines up as well.
So before we get even, you know,basketball or hockey or any of
that, if you want to get ready for football, I think you should
start to think about checking out and getting acclimated to
the odds logic live odds page now so that the time the season
(21:42):
is back in, you're not trying tofigure out what means what.
But there are again, a lot of live odds pages out there.
But if you ask me, odds logic isthe best because it's the best
product at the cheapest price. What's wrong with that?
It's got every game start times,live scoring, live in game
wagering odds you'd be able to identify Steam numbers get lit
up in red as soon as they change.
(22:02):
So you know the markets moving and big money's coming in.
Shop for the best line, get the best price, pull up the line
history, notifications for injuries, all available with the
odds logic live odds page. So give it a shot.
There's no better odds page around.
Go to oddslogic.com/josh 123. That'll give you a 7 day free
trial and 50% off your first month of service.
(22:24):
And if you like it and you want to keep it, it's only 99 bucks a
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nothing, but other odds pages are like 250 a month, $600 a
month. This is the best one at the best
rate, so give it a shot. Again, oddslogic.com/josh 123.
So that about does it for episode 328.
First day in August, last day ofthe week for the pod.
(22:47):
As always, I'm gonna leave you with a couple things.
Whether I see you at the Borgatain Atlantic City, Twin River in
Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
Sun, down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge
Park Casino, MGM Springfield. The Nash and Nash from New
Hampshire are out in the desert with the true Grinders.
Get down where Billy Walters sends his number runners, where
the lowest juice possible is found at the South Point.
(23:08):
Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
Show me that Mariners ticket. Don't show me the Reds ticket.
What a tease that was coming allthe way back only to lose in in
the 10th. But you know what?
Show me the Chargers Lions over 33 1/2 chef's kiss.
First bet of the year in the NFLand we nailed it.
(23:31):
So first one's on me, next one'son you.
We'll sweat the Mets, Guardians and Padres together tonight.
As always, guys two and one, oneand two, three and OO and three.
After a great night, a terrible night, mediocre night, whether
we're hot, whether we're cold, whether we're grinding, you just
got to stick to the model, stickto the blueprint.
Never get too high when things are going well.
Never get too down on yourself when things aren't going well.
(23:52):
Remember, it's a hard market to be consistently because we got
to overcome the juice, overcome bad beats, you know, ref
screwing us. Whatever the case may be, we
just got to keep grinding them. If we can find those system
matches, games that fit our model, which you might know by
now against the public, with thehouse, with the pros, flat bet,
avoid parlays and get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
(24:13):
to be successful sports bettors.So have a great Friday night.
Everybody have an even better weekend reminder.
No podcast on the weekend, but you can get the official best
bets for Saturday and Sunday on the Juice Reel ASG podcast page
again for $4.99 a week. You can also follow me on
Twitter at Josh under score Insights and I will be writing
(24:36):
the sharp reports for tomorrow and for Sunday, so you can check
that out as well. But hope you have a great
Friday. But everybody hope you have an
even better weekend and I'll seeyou back on Monday for episode
329 of the All Systems Go SportsBetting Podcast powered by
Rhythm. Good luck everybody and I'll see
you soon.
Hello and welcome to episode 328of the All Systems Go Sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Friday, our work week is coming to an end.
We're also saying hello to the month of August.
(00:41):
It is officially August 1st. We got our first NFL winner of
the year last night in the Hall of Fame game.
Love that. Over 33 1/2.
Remember that total open 32 1/2 got up to 33 1/2.
We had Circa which was bullish. I made the comparison with the
hot dog contest how every book was 71 1/2 or even 72 and Circa
(01:03):
was 70 1/2 I believe. So anytime a sharp book like
that is kind of leaning one way more so than the entire market,
always an indicator. And then we had some good bet
splits. We had Dan Campbell 8:00 and
4:00 to the over. We had the over 3 and over the
last three years we had great weather.
Shout out to our friends at Juice Reel with the sharp mush
edge 24% to the over. And wouldn't you know it, we're
(01:24):
able to cash that one, which wasgreat to see as we start off our
NFL betting this year 1 and O, which is always a good sign.
And this is also a way to say, hey, people that make fun of you
say what are you? What are you doing betting the?
Preseason What are you? Degenerate.
No, no, no. We check the data, we make data
and driven bets. If we don't have a case to bet a
game, we lay off, but there's a pretty compelling case for that
(01:46):
over and we were able to cash it.
So I love seeing that. So after that winner last night
in the NFL, you might be saying,hey, when's our next sweat?
I'm looking right now. It looks like on Thursday, next
Thursday, August 7th, 3 pack of pre season games.
So getting excited. It's about the pre season and
make information based bets. Looking toward today.
(02:06):
Guys do have a three pack of Emily Sweats for you.
No, no football to get down on, but a full slate of MLB trade
deadline is over. We had the buyers, the sellers,
teams like the Mariners, Padres,Phillies, Mets making a bunch of
moves, the Twins and the D backscompletely selling off.
We've got a three pack for todayso we can finish off the week
and go 2 and one take out a winning day.
(02:27):
Looking toward last night. That's exactly what we did. 2
and 1 + 0.5 units. So got 1/2 unit.
We'll take it. I mentioned the winner there at
the Chargers in Detroit. Getting back to betting the NFL,
which was great, had another winner there with the Mariners.
Late night really wasn't a sweatthere.
They won 6 to nothing. What kept us from a clean sweep
was the Reds. And you know what's frustrating
about the Reds game? They got up 3 I believe was 3,
(02:49):
nothing early. Their bullpen completely
implodes and they give up eight runs.
I think it was the 7th or 8th inning.
They come back and score eight runs to tie it only to lose by
one run in extra inning. So the Reds are a bit of a tease
and don't you know anytime you this is like it's so insane
baseball how much how often thishappens.
Bet the Reds last night they lose today.
(03:10):
You could set your watch to it. Of course they won three to two.
There was a line move. I don't know if anyone played
Reds earlier today, but either way, guys two and one got 1/2
unit last night got our first winner in the NFL.
Let's see if we can reinvest it to today and steam into the
weekend, hopefully with a littlebit of a hot streak.
That being said, as I mentioned,3 pack today guys, 2 short
favorites, one bigger favorite. One team in particular has a
(03:32):
really good sharp mush edge. So without further ado, let's
waste no more time and get rightinto it.
Hopefully have a winning day in baseball.
So first, but on the board for me, let's go out to the Big
Apple. New York Mets hosting the San
Francisco G Men 7:10 PM Eastern Time.
First pitch, let's set the stage.
Talk line movement, split systemmatches.
I'll give him my play for this one.
(03:53):
So going into it, we got the G men 54 and 55.
They've lost six straight. Just got swept by the Pirates.
Man at home getting swept by thePirates.
Lost that series finale 2 to oneas a -, 210 home favorite.
I believe the record is something like 13 and 25 since
picking up Raffi Devers and theysold off a couple guys yesterday
as well, Ystromsky and Rogers. But I mean look at the mats 62
(04:16):
and 47. They also just got swept by the
pods. They lost that series finale 5.
Nothing as a + 100 Rd. dog. But the Mets did buy, picking up
Cedric Mullins, center fielder from the Orioles, and they also
picked up Rodgers, Helsley and Soto.
Some bullpen arms. For tonight's series opener, the
Giants are going with the lefty Robbie Ray.
He's nine and five with a 2.93 ERA.
(04:39):
Meanwhile, the Mets going with the fellow southpaw David
Peterson, seven and four, 2.83 ERA.
So what have we seen across the market for this one?
This game open, Mets around a -,135 home favorite San Fran A +
115 row dog and sharps are saying let's get the Mets back
on track. Let's fade the reeling in, in
(05:00):
fire sailing San Francisco Giants because we've seen the
Mets creep up -135 up to -140 now most books are -145 even
-150 it's not a massive, you know, $0.20 the move.
What about 10-15 cents in favor of the Mets?
Now if you look at circa pretty good split, 67% bets, over 70%
(05:20):
of dollars are coming in on the Mets.
So it tells us out in Vegas thatwise guy money going with the
line move in favor of New York. I do have a bunch of system
matches lit up on the the Mets here.
Here are a few of them. When both teams are coming off a
loss, which is the case here, take the team getting $0.10 of
line movement or more in their favor.
Those teams are 43 and 2662 percent. 8% ROI When both teams
(05:44):
are coming off a day off again applies here as well.
The favorite is 98 and 5763% with a 4% ROI.
Then if you isolate the Mets in particular, yeah, they got swept
on the road recently, last series against the pods, they've
been really good at home in particular when they are a home
favorite. 33 and 1273 percent, 16% ROI.
(06:05):
That is the second best home team and all of baseball.
You might be asking yourself who's number one, Believe it or
not, it's the Texas Rangers. On top of the line move the
splits the system matches. The Mets are also a correlative
betting play here because they are around a -, 145 home
favorite with a low total of 7 1/2 in The under is actually
juiced around -120 So fair amount of expected runs scored,
(06:28):
more likely to come from quote UN quote, that better team.
Hopefully the Mets bats get going here.
I didn't see anything about JuanSoto.
He got hit in the hand, I think,or he got injured a few days
ago. He's been off a couple days.
Hope he's in the lineup tonight.But overall, the Mets, they're
hitting two 41135 homers, 473 runs scored.
You'll get the G men hitting two32101 homers, 443 runs scored.
(06:52):
In particular, we got a couple lefties on the bump.
The Mets aren't amazing against lefties, only hitting 226, but
the Giants are hitting 215 against lefties.
That's dead last in all of baseball.
Dig a little deeper into Peterson.
Knock on wood. Hope he pitches well tonight.
But he posted a one point O 5 ERA in four July starts.
Only gave up three runs, three earned runs in 25.2 innings
(07:16):
pitch and at home 5 and O 1.91 ERA at Citi Field.
Meanwhile, Robbie Ray is having a good year, but kind of
pedestrian in the month of July.Made 5 starts, 3.52 ERA, giving
up twelve runs in 30.2 innings pitched.
And then just some classic home Rd.
We got the Mets 37 and 16 at home.
One of the better home teams in baseball.
(07:37):
G men 26 and 29 on the road. So we got a line move toward the
Mets. We got some good splits.
Tons of system matches here. Hopefully better offense.
Hope Soto's in the lineup. And then, of course, we got a
correlative betting favorite, low total on a team that bought
and hopefully again today, teamsthat bought.
Does that give you a little momentum, a little juice?
Your team, you know, your organization believes in you
(08:00):
versus A-Team like San Fran, who's kind of selling off here.
So maybe that's a little supplementary factor.
But sticking with the data, looks to me like a Mets play
tonight, So I'm laying with New York.
I got the Mets at -140 I believethat's not available anymore.
But looks like your best price is -144 at FanDuel.
Shop around against some books as high as -145 -, 150.
(08:21):
But let's go Mets next one for you. 7:10 PM Eastern Time first
pitch. The Minnesota Twins visiting the
Cleveland Guardians setting the stage for this one.
The Twins 51 and 57 just droppedtwo or three against the Red Sox
lost that series finale 13 to 1 as a -125 home favorite or on
the Twins in a second. On the other hand, the Guardians
(08:44):
54 and 54500 club did just take two or three though against the
Rockies. They won that series finale 5 to
nothing as a -180 home favorite.So pitching match up here for
tonight. Twins are going with the ready
Joe Ryan 10 and five 2.82 ERA. Guardians meanwhile going with
fellow ready Gavin Williams. He's six and four with a 3.51
(09:05):
ERA. So what do you see across the
market here? Will this game open?
The Guardians listed as a very short -115 home favorite
Minnesota around a -, 1 O 5 Rd. Rd. dog and we've seen nothing
but movement in favor of the guardians.
Guardians of getting gotten crept up here or have crept up
-115 now up to -120 -, 125. I jumped on the guards at -120
(09:29):
at FanDuel again, shop around some books or most of the market
at -125 and the thought process here for me is Minnesota Twins
just traded away. I think it was like something
like 40% of the roster, pretty much all their bullpen arms, a
ton of their offensive players. I really don't understand
keeping Joe Ryan. Like if you're going to fire
sail, why not trade him too? As a Sox fan, there's a rumor he
(09:51):
was going to get dealt to the Sox and it never materialized.
But I think that might be the angle.
Just, you know, Minnesota's firesail mode.
Korea too, who got traded. I think there was a quote where
like everyone's leaving and he'slike, I got to get out of here.
So what kind of what kind of vibes does that send in the
locker room? So I want to bet against the
Twins after completely mailing it in at the trade deadline.
Whereas Cleveland technically 500 team still in the playoff
(10:14):
race. Aside from the line move toward
the Cleveland Guardians, we alsohave a pretty good bet split 66%
of bets, 78% of dollars at DraftKings and at Circa.
Out in Vegas, 65% of bets over 90% of dollars on Cleveland.
So good low bets, higher dollar split at both the Wiseguy Vegas
book Circa and national public book DraftKings.
(10:37):
A bunch of system matches on Cleveland.
Some of them are going to be a repeat of the Mets, but both
teams coming off a day off. Take the favorite 98 and 5763
percent, 4% ROI this year. Home favorites off a win,
getting line movement in their favor who also made the playoffs
the previous year. I know it's a mouthful, but it's
kind of straightforward. 134 and6767 percent, 5% ROI.
(11:02):
Also the Guardians 18 and 1064 percent 6% ROI as a home
favorite. I believe that's I think 9th or
10th best in baseball and as a home favorite with a line move
there 11 and 569 percent 14% ROI.
Cleveland does have that correlative betting that just
matched with the Mets because it's a very low total of 7
actually open 7 1/2 got bet downto seven.
(11:24):
So if your amount of expected run scored more likely to come
from quote UN quote that better team.
Not going to lie, Joe Ryan's a good pitcher got got a bunch of
good numbers. But Williams no slouch, 5 and 2
three-point O 5 ERA at home thisyear.
He's at home tonight, hopefully pitches well.
And last 10. Cleveland six and four hitting
271, three .33 team ERA. Minnesota four and six over the
(11:47):
last 10, only hitting 2:45 with a 5.61 ERA.
Also the Guards 27 and 26 at home.
Nothing amazing, but you know, about 500 Twins, 21 and 33 on
the road. And then a little cherry on top
for the Guardians play tonight, popped open the Juice Reel app.
Remember they had a 24% sharp mush edge on that Hall of Fame
game over last night. Well, I noticed a 31% sharp mush
(12:11):
edge in favor of the Guardians telling us the bigger, sharper
wagers who have downloaded JuiceReel synced up their books.
They're fading the Twins in the spot as well.
So we got a team that just sold off almost all their players.
Cleveland still got something tofight for.
Line move, splits, system matches, sharp mush edge from
Juice Reel. I laid it with the guardians
-120 at FanDuel again. Shop around.
(12:34):
Most of the market around -125 last bit of the night, Let's go
out to sunny San Diego. 9:40 PM Eastern Time, first pitch, Saint
Louis Cardinals visiting the SanDiego fathers.
So going to it, we got the cards55 and 55 dead. 500 here.
Did sell some guys though, some pitchers, Helsley and Steven
(12:54):
Matts and a couple others. Dropped two or three though,
against the Marlins in their last series, lost the final game
in that series. 2 to nothing as a -140 home favorite.
On the other hand, the Padres 60and 49 on the year, they've won
five straight, just swept the Mets.
They won that series finale. 5 nothing as a -, 125 home
favorite. And also they were a team that
(13:14):
was very active. And let me just give a shout out
to, is it AJ Preller, who's the GM of the Padres?
I love this guy. You have all these other GMs. I
don't want to trade these prospects.
It's like, you know, a lot of these prospects never pan out.
He traded a bunch of top prospects, brought in Mason
Miller, that stud flamethrower from the A's, JP Sears, picked
(13:36):
up Ryan O'hearn and Loriano fromthe Mets.
I love what the Padres did yesterday.
So so shout out to AGM who actually likes to go for it
other than my GM Craig Breslow. Can't can't, you know, make any
deals and is afraid to give up any kind of prospects even
though what is it, 80% of prospects don't pan out.
You can tell I'm an annoyed Red Sox fan who's got the over 85
(13:57):
1/2 who was wanting some additions, not just Dustin May
and Matt's. Anyway, pitching match up for
tonight, we got the Cardinals going with the lefty Matthew
Liberator. He's six and eight with a four
point O 4 ERA. Meanwhile, the pods going to go
with the righty Nick Pavetta. He's had a Goodyear 10 and three
2.81 ERA. So what is it across the market
here? Will this game open pods around
(14:19):
a -? 150 home favorite Saint Louis
around a + 130 Rd. Dog and boy have the sharps
pounded the dads tonight. Because we've seen San Diego get
bet up -150 all the way up to -185 a $0.35 Steam move in favor
of San Diego. So much even as high as -190
just a massive, massive adjustment in favor of the
(14:39):
Padres. Tells me a lot of big money came
in on the dads here. Splits look pretty good at DK
84% bets, 86% dollars Pro and Joe on the pods out in Vegas,
79% bets. Over 90% of the money is on the
dads. So further evidence of that
desert sharp action going with San Diego.
I got 8 system matches on the pods.
(15:00):
Lot of matches here. Here's some of the best ones.
Favorites off a win with a winning record, getting $0.05 of
movement or more. Who also made the playoffs the
previous year, 130 and 5869 percent, 7% ROI this year,
Series opening home favorite. So game one of a new series
getting big Steam $0.20 or more,62 and 2571 percent, 9% ROI.
(15:24):
Both teams coming off a day off.Take the favorite again.
That matched a second ago with Cleveland and the Mets.
That is a 63% system with a 4% ROI.
Padres in particular 26 and 1367percent, 11% ROI as a home
favorite. That is the 5th best home chalk
team in all of baseball. San Diego once again has that
(15:44):
correlative betting value favorite almost a -, 200
favorite. So big favorite here with a very
low total of 7 1/2. Few amount of expected run
scored more likely to come from again quote UN quote that better
team who's favorite to win. Pavetta 1.17 ERA in five July
starts only give up 4 earned runs and 30.2 innings pitched
and at home 6 and O2 point O 7 ERA.
(16:07):
Meanwhile, the Barrator he's been going the other way.
He made three starts in July, gave up nine earned runs and
12.1 innings pitch. That's an ERA of over 6 1/2.
And then lastly some home Rd. San Diego 34 and 18.
One of the better home teams in baseball.
Saint Louis Cardinals 23 and 31 on the road.
Definitely struggle. Padres bought at the deadline,
(16:29):
Cardinal sold. Padres are getting big steam
tonight. Great splits and really the my
top system match. I got the most system matches
lit up on San Diego. So even though it's a bit of a
hefty number, you would have loved to have gotten this little
bit earlier. I got San Diego -184 at FanDuel.
But again, shop around. A lot of books are creeping up
toward -190 so the Dads, the Guardians and the Mets see if we
(16:51):
can get 2 out of 3. Eek out a winning day.
Of course, that is the goal. So that about does it for
episode 328 of the all systems go sports betting podcast on the
post deadline day in Major League Baseball and we got
football back in our lives again.
Wasn't it great sweating that over last night?
I'm I'm like, man, you know, I love baseball, but it's it's
nice to have football back. But anyway, guys, it's the part
(17:14):
of the pod where we wrap things up and I start first by saying
thank you. Thank you for taking the time
out of your day, out of your busy lives.
It's the dog days of summer. But the fact that we've been
grinding all summer long, you guys been tuning in, we've been
sweating these data-driven playstogether all summer long.
It means a lot to me. Tells me you want to be a
sharper, better, tells me you value the insights.
That really means a ton to me. If you want to you know, do do a
(17:37):
solid for your boy over here, please would you give this
podcast a five star review on Spotify or iTunes.
If you want to leave a nice comment in the review section.
If you want to click the follow button that way you get alerted
as soon as it drops each day or recommend the pod to a friend
that would also be very much appreciated.
Next, if you enjoy this style ofbetting breakdown, you notice
(17:58):
last night we didn't say take the.
Over because it's fun to root for points and let's just say
take the over. No, we built a case.
We looked at the line movement, the splits, the historical
results, the weather we're able to cash and over again
approaching bets from a data number driven perspective, not a
biased, got In Sync perspective.That's really the whole point of
this podcast cuz we all got thoughts, we all got biases.
(18:21):
Hey, I got favoritism too, but I've learned over time, read the
market, trust the market. The market won't get every game
right, but it's gonna give you ablueprint to win a majority of
your bets. So if you want to learn more
about data-driven betting, or maybe you have a friend of yours
or family member or colleague, someone who wants to get into
sports betting or someone who bets and loses a lot and wants
to get better and sharper, I'd love for you guys to go to
(18:43):
Amazon.com and then type in the everything Guide to Sports
betting. It's the first book ever wrote.
Very proud of it. Great for new betters or
beginners or even intermediate betters, but it really lays out
the data-driven blueprint, how lines are set, how and why they
move, how to read line movement,how to locate sharp action, how
to place a bet in person or online, how to shop for the best
line, how to set up a bankroll management plan, all included in
(19:06):
the Everything Guide to sports betting.
Now while you're picking up the Everything guide in Amazon.com,
stay on Amazon.com and then typein the NFL Sharp Betting
playbook. It's my new book comes out just
it's incredible. Comes out what, 11 days from
now, August 12th, so a week fromTuesday cannot wait.
But if you want to get a leg up on your NFL handicapping, you
(19:27):
want to support the pod, you want to see what I've been
working on for the last three years.
I would love, love, love, love. If you wanted to pre-order a
copy of the every of the NFL sharp betting playbook.
It would mean a ton to me guys, and I think you're going to get
a lot of good insights from it as well.
But whether it's the Everything Guide or the NFL Sharp Betting
playbook, bring them to the sports book.
I'll sign up for you. I'll buy you a beer or ginger
(19:49):
ale. We'll get some nachos.
We'll sweat some baseball games together.
How's that sound? Because that sounds pretty good
to me. Also, have you downloaded Rhythm
and Juice Real yet? Oh, Rhythm.
Fantastic AI backed models and predictions for game bets and
player props. I'm actually finalizing an
announcement here with Rhythm. I got something big planned this
fall with Rhythm and I think I'mgoing to announce it, I believe
(20:12):
next week or the week after. We're getting close here, so
stay tuned. And then also juice reel if you
enjoy this pod and you want to get the all systems go best bet
picks earlier in the day, beat some closing lines, support the
pod again, you're listening thispod for free.
It cost you nothing. So if you want to support the
pod for $4.99 a week, a $5.00 bill, basically a couple a cup
(20:34):
of coffee, I can get those playsand and again, you can tell fade
do whatever you like, but you know, you know, I'm betting
them. You know that's the side that
I'll be sweating, but also the robo Jackson best bet picks, the
sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays the shop for the
best sign futures all available to you in the juice reel app.
So download rhythm, download juice reel.
Give them a five star review in the App Store while you're at
(20:55):
it. Next, do you have a live odds
page? Well, I can't stress enough the
importance of a live odds page because again, without it,
you're flying blind. You got to know all the games
being played that day. What sports are are are
available to you. Was funny as I was I tweeted
this out like, hey, football's back with with the odds logic
live odds page and I totally, you know didn't even really
(21:18):
consider Canadian Football League CFL.
There's CFL lines up there's there's college football lines
up. There's NFL pre season in game
in opening week lines up as well.
So before we get even, you know,basketball or hockey or any of
that, if you want to get ready for football, I think you should
start to think about checking out and getting acclimated to
the odds logic live odds page now so that the time the season
(21:42):
is back in, you're not trying tofigure out what means what.
But there are again, a lot of live odds pages out there.
But if you ask me, odds logic isthe best because it's the best
product at the cheapest price. What's wrong with that?
It's got every game start times,live scoring, live in game
wagering odds you'd be able to identify Steam numbers get lit
up in red as soon as they change.
(22:02):
So you know the markets moving and big money's coming in.
Shop for the best line, get the best price, pull up the line
history, notifications for injuries, all available with the
odds logic live odds page. So give it a shot.
There's no better odds page around.
Go to oddslogic.com/josh 123. That'll give you a 7 day free
trial and 50% off your first month of service.
(22:24):
And if you like it and you want to keep it, it's only 99 bucks a
month. I know 99 bucks is not is not
nothing, but other odds pages are like 250 a month, $600 a
month. This is the best one at the best
rate, so give it a shot. Again, oddslogic.com/josh 123.
So that about does it for episode 328.
First day in August, last day ofthe week for the pod.
(22:47):
As always, I'm gonna leave you with a couple things.
Whether I see you at the Borgatain Atlantic City, Twin River in
Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
Sun, down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge
Park Casino, MGM Springfield. The Nash and Nash from New
Hampshire are out in the desert with the true Grinders.
Get down where Billy Walters sends his number runners, where
the lowest juice possible is found at the South Point.
(23:08):
Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
Show me that Mariners ticket. Don't show me the Reds ticket.
What a tease that was coming allthe way back only to lose in in
the 10th. But you know what?
Show me the Chargers Lions over 33 1/2 chef's kiss.
First bet of the year in the NFLand we nailed it.
(23:31):
So first one's on me, next one'son you.
We'll sweat the Mets, Guardians and Padres together tonight.
As always, guys two and one, oneand two, three and OO and three.
After a great night, a terrible night, mediocre night, whether
we're hot, whether we're cold, whether we're grinding, you just
got to stick to the model, stickto the blueprint.
Never get too high when things are going well.
Never get too down on yourself when things aren't going well.
(23:52):
Remember, it's a hard market to be consistently because we got
to overcome the juice, overcome bad beats, you know, ref
screwing us. Whatever the case may be, we
just got to keep grinding them. If we can find those system
matches, games that fit our model, which you might know by
now against the public, with thehouse, with the pros, flat bet,
avoid parlays and get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
(24:13):
to be successful sports bettors.So have a great Friday night.
Everybody have an even better weekend reminder.
No podcast on the weekend, but you can get the official best
bets for Saturday and Sunday on the Juice Reel ASG podcast page
again for $4.99 a week. You can also follow me on
Twitter at Josh under score Insights and I will be writing
(24:36):
the sharp reports for tomorrow and for Sunday, so you can check
that out as well. But hope you have a great
Friday. But everybody hope you have an
even better weekend and I'll seeyou back on Monday for episode
329 of the All Systems Go SportsBetting Podcast powered by
Rhythm. Good luck everybody and I'll see
you soon.
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