August 5, 2025 • 27 mins
In Episode 330, Josh dishes out a 3-pack of MLB plays for Tuesday night.
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Josh's new book "The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook" comes out on August 12, 2025
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:19):
Hello and welcome to. Episode 3. 30 of the all.
Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh. Applebaum, what's going on,
everyone? Happy Tuesday.
Another day here in the arena. Guys, as we kick off the month
(00:40):
of August, you know what that means?
We got. NFL preseason in full swing.
Before you know, we're going to college football back and.
Then it's going to be the regular season.
And then don't even, you know, think too far ahead, but.
We got the NBA. College basketball.
Hockey's coming back in October again.
Enjoy these dog days of summer because pretty soon the days of
baseball. Only and some people.
(01:01):
Might be happy about this, others may not because I love
grinding baseball every single day, but pretty soon we're going
to have a lot of different sports to choose from.
So we've gotten to the groove ofyou know 3 packs in Major League
Baseball trying to eke out two and one nights, which we did
yesterday but just keep in mind that hey you know we're probably
going to expand to maybe 4 bets a night 5 bets a night.
I really don't try to go above 5unless you.
(01:23):
Really, really love. A bunch of plays because really
the quickest way to to. Lose money and and see.
Your bankroll dissipate or evaporate is when you have too
many bets. And I always make the joke and
actually included in my my new book, the NFL Sharp Betting
Playbook that you got to limit your plays.
If you have one glass of wine a night with dinner, hey, that's
good. Some people even say a glass of
red wine is good for your heart if you have 10.
(01:44):
Glasses of wine every night. Or five or more, you probably
have a problem. So I look at glasses of wine
like I do number of bets I have each night, always trying to
again focus on. And again, you may start a day
with loving 7 or 8 bets and get them down to four or five or
maybe got 5 down to three. Less is more when it comes to
sports betting because there's always.
Going to be more. Days and more games to bet on,
(02:05):
but if you have too many plays, you need to overextend yourself
again, that's when a bad night, you know, an O and three stinks,
but an O and five, an O and seven, a one and eight, that's
even worse. But I did want to get you guys
to get a little bit excited because we're going to have a
lot of these sports, especially football, of course, returning
here pretty shortly. We did hit on and by the way, I
do have another 3 pack of baseball plays for you guys
today, 11 bigger line couple medium to moderate size numbers.
(02:30):
So we're going to see if we can eke out another two in one
night, but I wanted to mention. Just some of these.
Preseason games, because we talked about it yesterday.
There's three games coming up onThursday, so just two days from
now and we've all already. Seen a ton of line.
Movement, one that really caughtmy eye.
Was Vegas in Seattle? This is a 10:00 game on Thursday
night and we actually opened this game.
Seattle favored. By about a point and a half.
(02:52):
Well, we talked about how the line already flipped on
yesterday's pod over to Vegas plus 1 1/2 to -2 1/2 and then
right before I started the pod, I just.
Saw Vegas get steamed up to -4 1/2 so a ton of movement toward
the Raiders. This is one of those games where
information based betting is super critical because it looks
like Seattle's going to sit pretty much all their guys.
(03:13):
Vegas is going to play a lot of their guys, which is why you're
seeing this line flip toward Vegas.
But. You know if you're minus. 2 1/2.
-3 or less. You can convince me maybe?
A money line play, you know -150or less.
But now that you're seeing Vegasup to -4 1/2, that's what an
example of a game where if you're late to the party, like
1, if you played it, if you got Vegas, like my guy Devin
(03:34):
Hernandez, who did a great job, I think he got plus 1 1/2, then
you're feeling great right now. There's nothing else you can do.
You're getting. CLV like you read about, but if
you haven't played it yet, I'm not going to rush to the window
and lay 4 1/2. Maybe Vegas wins by, you know, 5
or more and it doesn't matter. But really the point of these
information based bets is getting down.
Somewhat quickly before the line, really.
(03:56):
Gets away from you. Like, for example, Vegas is now
-5 -, 4 1/2. Let's say Vegas wins by three.
That means everyone. And again, got to remember.
The key numbers 3. 76 You know 10 even seen with the extra
point being moved back, you know, some more games that are
landing on a margin of five. But the whole point being there
is that. You know Vegas wins by. 3 Then
(04:17):
that means. Everyone who got them early as a
dog or -2 now for less. Wins.
You lay a. 4 1/2 the worst of the number.
To me. That's a cardinal sin in
betting. You never want to lay the worst
of the number. Now you may, you know, rob a
bank and get away with it and not get caught, But if you
consistently bet the worst of the number, it's like the
opposite of CLV, then pretty soon you're going to get clipped
and you're going to see people who bet the game before you cash
(04:39):
and you're going to be, you know, steaming because you you
lost and got the worst of it. I'm starting to look at some of
these totals like also if you. Look at Cincy Philly.
Same sort of thing Philly, actually.
Opened a short favorite. We flipped all the way to the.
Bengals now minus. 6 1/2, I believe they're -4 yesterday or
even as low as, yeah, I think they're -4 So that line
(05:00):
continues to creep up. And then the same thing with
Indy and Baltimore seeing that line continue to go toward the
Colts. That was basically a Colts
getting a point. Now to lane 4/4 and 1/2.
So whole point. Being is.
We're tracking these lines. But we got to pounce on them
quick. And if you missed the number,
it's OK to lay off. Remember, we're trying to pick
spots and really not not get toocrazy before the regular season
(05:23):
starts. So that's when we're really
going to make all of our money. So just wanted to address those
big line moves that a couple people DM me and say, hey, you
like Vegas 4 1/2. And I'm like, I like the steam
in their favor, but I don't likelaying the worst of it.
So again, doing your part, staying glued to Twitter,
figuring out what the coaches are saying, who they're playing
and who they're not. If you can get on it early, you
can really make some hay in the preseason.
But again, if you're late, don'tpush it.
(05:45):
I think we want to kind of just let the dust settle and we'll
see how this goes between today and kick off on on Thursday.
So that being said, little, justa little, you know, wet.
Your whistle here with some somefootball talk, but I do want to
get back to Major League Baseball.
We did have a good start. To the week.
Last night 2 and. 1 + 0.3 units So got 1/3 of a unit, we'll take
(06:06):
it. Had a couple.
Nice hits. There with the tigers.
Tigers are actually down early, came back in. 16 to 3:00.
And then also the brew crew man break up the beer makers.
Unbelievable 3 to one had a big hit there who was a Contreras
and kid a Homer but they hung on.
Only loser was Miami team that'sred hot.
Of course we play them, pick them to fave line move and they
(06:28):
get blown out eight to two, so can't win them all, but hey, 2
and 1/3 of a. Unit A winning night.
We'll take it, put in our back pocket or reinvest it to today.
That being said. Three pack for today.
Guys, let's waste no. More time.
I want to get this pot out a little early because I got some
games I want to talk about South.
First one on the board, 6:40 PM Eastern Time. 1st.
(06:48):
Pitch, Let's talk, Twinkies. And Detroit Tigers right back to
the scene of the crime last night.
All right, I guess what's the opposite of a crime?
Something that was really good because the Detroit Tigers won.
I hope that continues here tour for tonight.
So setting the stage, you have the Tigers. 66 and 48 on the
year. They won that opener for us last
night 6 to 3, coming through as a -185 home favorite in
(07:11):
tonight's rematch. The Twinkies 52 and 60 on the
year, They're going to go with the ready Zebby.
Matthews. He's.
Two and three with. A5 point. 6-7 ER a.
He'll be opposed by the Tigers fellow righty Chris Paddock, who
they picked up in a trade, ironically from Minnesota.
He's 4:00 and 9:00 with a 4.77 ER a.
So what do you see across the market here?
(07:31):
Well, this game opened Detroit around a -, 135.
Home favorite Minnesota A + 115 row dog and I was kind of
looking at this. Opening number.
Because some books were way off.Like I saw some opener number
opening numbers of Detroit like.-160 -, 170.
But then I was looking at FanDuel and a couple others and
they were more like -135 So you always got to kind of double
(07:52):
check and make sure you're getting kind of the true opener
because books are always going to fluctuate because they have
different, you know, clientele, whether they cater to casual
betters or recreational betters.Some books are opening lines
themselves, others are just piggybacking and just shading
one way or the other. But it looks like the the true
opener here to me, look more like a -, 135.
(08:13):
And since that opener, it's all been movement back toward
Detroit. So it looks like pros pounced on
Tigers around -135 that now steam them up to around -145.
Some shops even as high as -150.I jumped on the Tigers at -1.
38A. Little bit earlier today, looks
like your best number is -140. Two currently at FanDuel, but if
(08:34):
you. Look at the splits here.
Big Pro and Joe split in. Favor of the Tigers at
DraftKings. Getting 86%.
Of money line bets, 88% of moneyline dollars, so nice low bets,
higher dollar split in favor of Detroit.
This is a bit. Of a system match play for me, I
have 4 system matches. And a bunch of good ones here
lighting up on Detroit. Just give you a few of them.
(08:56):
Favorites off a win. With a winning record getting at
least $0.05 of line movement. Against the team who missed.
The playoffs the previous year. This is the same one that
matched with Detroit yesterday, but that.
System is 133 and 61, 69 percent, 6%.
ROI this year home. Favorites in the second game of
a new. Series after winning the opener.
129 and 70. 464%. With a 3%.
(09:19):
ROI then if we isolate Detroit in particular in the spot,
they've been highly profitable. Detroit is 32 and 1765% win
rate. 5% ROI as a home favorite and when their home.
Favorite getting at least $0.10 of movement.
In their direction. They're 25 and 7, 78 percent,
22%. ROI, in particular, the Tigers
(09:41):
are also. 18 and. Five against as a.
Home favorite against a below. 500.
Team. That's a 78% win rate with a 20%
ROI. Aside from the line move.
The splits the. Systems.
I'm going to lean on Detroit's bats, hopefully getting to
Matthews. They're hitting 250 on the year,
147 home runs, 549 runs scored. Minnesota, meanwhile, hitting
(10:03):
only 240 with 129 homers and 465runs.
Scored now Paddock. On the year his numbers don't
look great 4.77 ERA, but he justgot dealt from Minnesota to
Detroit and in his. Debut he's.
Making a second start with Detroit tonight, but in his
debut 6 innings, one run, seven to two went.
Over the D backs, so maybe he's a reinvigorated.
(10:26):
By going to a contender now. On the other hand, Matthews.
He made three. Starts in July 6. .28 ERA and on
the road 6.63 ERA at. Home.
A decent 4.4 O, but he's really.Struggled in July and on the
road and it's again past July and he's on the road tonight and
then lastly. Little home Rd. splits I was
(10:47):
notable to me. Tigers 37 and 21 at home.
One of the better home teams in baseball.
The Twins, only 22 and. 36 on the road, one of the worst Rd.
Teams in baseball, so we've seenline.
Movement toward Detroit. We got a.
Pretty good. Pro and Joe Bet split a lot of.
System matches here in general, but also.
Specifically tied to the Tigers in the spot.
Better bats, hopefully the better pitcher on the bump.
(11:09):
I laid it with the tigers -138 again.
Looks like your best price now is around -142 at FanDuel.
Next one for you. Let's go to an 80. 5:00 PM
Eastern Time. First pitch out in Chicago.
Yeah, get some. Chicago Dogs.
I'm Chicago. Let's go, cubbies.
At home against the red legs, soReds.
(11:30):
Come in 59 and 54. They won last night's.
Series opener 3 to 2 came through as.
A + 115 row dog pitching match up here for tonight.
Reds are going to go with the newly acquired Zach Litelle. 8
and 8 three-point. 58 ERA just picked him up at the deadline
from the Rays, the Cubs. Meanwhile, who are 65 and 47?
They're going to go with the lefty shota and managa.
(11:52):
Who's 8 and four with a three? .25 era.
So what do you sit across the market here?
Well, this game open cubbies around a -, 170 home favorite
Red legs around a + 150 row dog.And pros have jumped all over
the Cubs in this one. So I'm going cubbies.
They've gone from -170 now up to-175 -, 180.
(12:14):
Some shops. Even -190 a lot of.
Steam here hitting. Chicago causing that line to go
higher in their direction. So, you know, on the one hand,
good thing it's clear you know lines going Chicago not great if
you haven't bet it yet because again, this price is getting a
little more expensive. But if you look at the.
Splits over at DraftKings around80%.
Of bets and dollars. On the money line, going with
(12:34):
the. Cubbies and the Cubs are also
matching quite a few systems, and you know a few of these by
now. One Chicago is great as a
favorite. They're the second best.
Chalk team in baseball. When the Cubs are favored,
they've gone. 52 and 2667 percent, 8%.
ROI when they're favored and getting line movement in their
direction. Listen to this They're 45 and
(12:56):
1674% with an 18%. ROI And then lastly, you might
know the drill, but if you listen to the cap, as I kind of
laid this game out, Cubs lost last night.
Who do we? Love to bet off a loss the
Cubbies, baby. The Cubs are 30.
One and 1272%. 25% ROI off a loss, that is the best.
(13:19):
Bounce back team in. All of baseball.
Cubs also have some correlative betting value.
They're a bigger. Favorite here?
Again -175 -. 185 and they are in a low.
Total game of seven. And a half.
So when the line keeps going up to the favorite, you got a low
total. Lot of these 7 halfs are even
juiced. Under 7 1/2 under 7 half -115
(13:41):
You always got to think about the weather.
If it's a low total juiced under.
Typically it means winds blowingin at Wrigley Field, which It is
about 7 mph tonight from dead center, but the fair amount of.
Expected runs scored. More likely to come from quote
UN quote that better team was expected to win, which would be
in this case the Cubs. Cubs bats have been better this
year. Than the Reds hitting two 54160
(14:03):
home runs, 581 runs. Scored.
Meanwhile, the Reds. Are only hitting 247 on the air,
116 home. Runs 500.
And 15 runs scored. Now in managa the he's made. 15
starts this year. The Cubs are.
Ten and five in those games if you also look at lefty righty.
The Cubs are going up against. Letel, who's a righty?
(14:23):
Well, guess what? Chicago's hitting 255 against.
Righty's this year, 6th best in baseball.
Reds going up against Imanaga, alefty.
They're only hitting 221 against.
Southpaws that's. 28th in baseball.
Lastly, classic Home Rd. Splits since the couple games
below. 500 as a visitor. They're 26 and 28.
But if you look at Chicago. 35 and. 21 at home one of the
(14:46):
better home teams in baseball. So you.
Had me at. Cubs off a loss.
We got some line movement, some good split, some good systems.
I want to back in Managa and I want to fade Lattell.
He's actually. Been a pretty decent.
Pitcher last few years, but. You're going on a new team.
It's a new catcher. It's a whole new, you know, set
of teammates, surroundings. Coaching staff, that's a little
bit of a sneaky. Fade.
For me, guy making his debut on a new team bad all up.
(15:09):
I'm going to sweat the Cubs tonight, guys.
I got a -1. 75 at BET. MGM again, shop around.
Some books are closer to -180 -,185.
Last bet of the night. Let's go.
Out to the Rocky Mountains, 8:40PM Eastern Time.
The Blue Jays visiting the Colorado Rockies now coming into
it, we got the Jays. 66 and 48 and they absolutely.
(15:31):
Crushed the Rockies last. Night 15 to 1 and the opener
coming through easily. As a -. 225 Rd.
Favorite. Pitching matchup In tonight's
rematch, we have the Jays going with the ready Jose Barrios.
He's seven and four with a 3.84.ERA and the.
Rockies who are 30 and 82. Yeah.
That that's true. 30 and 82, what a record they're going to
(15:53):
go. With the ready Anthony Molina.
Who's O&O with A7? .27 ERA So what do we see across
the market here? Well this game open very heavy
tort Toronto a -. 200 Rd. favorite Colorado around a + 170
home dog. What's notable to me is that
when you open as a big Rd. favorite, you know, does the
line go? Up higher in.
Your favor? Because.
(16:14):
Hey, it's a mismatch and you know they're.
Going to roll for a reason. Because they're expected to.
Or do you? See the line fall.
Toward the home team because. It's just a good value play to
take a big home dog. Well, it looks.
Like in this one. It's pretty clear it's the.
Former, not the latter, because this line is only shot up
further. Toward the Blue Jays.
Blue Jays went from -200 up to -2. 35 some shops.
(16:37):
As high as even 240, even 250. So this is a big, big number and
I really don't like betting laying big prices like this, but
I'm seeing a lot of indicators, a lot of system matches on the
Jays, so I'm playing the. Jays tonight, Big steam.
I got a minus. 2:30. 5 Again bignumber.
Always remember bettress not betto win.
If you're betting Jays tonight, or Cubs or Detroit or any game
(16:58):
we ever mentioned, you're alwaysbetting to risk, not win.
That means if. You're playing Jays.
You're. Not risking. 2.3. 5 units to win
one unit that would be betting to win.
No, you're just risking your oneunit like any other.
Bet in this case you get a little less than 1/2 unit back
if Toronto can come through. Now if you look at the splits.
Lighten up, pretty. Good on the Jays. 93% of money
line bets. Over 95%.
(17:20):
Of money line dollars at DraftKings, then over at circa
60% of bets, 98% of dollars. So a big low bets, higher dollar
split telling us the wise guys in Vegas are having the courage
to lay that big chalk with Toronto.
Then we get into some of these system matches.
Big Rd. favorites -200 or more. 37 and 14 this year, 73 percent,
(17:43):
3%. ROI, so you're actually turning
a profit. Even though you're laying these
big prices. If a.
Big Rd. favorite -200 or more isgetting $0.20 of steam or more
in their favor. They're 19 and four this year.
83 percent 17% ROI. Toronto is 24 and 1267 percent,
11% ROI as a favorite against teams who missed the.
(18:04):
Playoffs the previous year, so cleaning up against.
Bad teams doing. What you're supposed to do?
Jays also off their offense. Went off yesterday but hope it.
Continues tonight, they're hitting 267 on the year.
They've scored five. 146 runs. Rockies are hitting 237.
They've scored 419 runs. Weirdly enough, burrios.
Has been better on the road 3.36ERA and at night 2.68 ERA then
(18:30):
at home 4.34. ERA and during the day five
point. 8-9 ERA. So he's been better on the road.
And at night and worse at. Home and in the day while he's
on the road at night tonight, sothat would match up well and we
do have. Toronto 10 and 2.
In his last 12 starts. Meanwhile, Molina.
Don't feel bad if you never heard of this guy.
I had never heard of this guy. I was wondering if he's one of
(18:52):
the Molina, Benji Molina and allthose catchers.
I don't think he is. Maybe he is, I don't know, but
he's only. Making his sixth appearance this
year, his first appearance sinceJune 20. 5th and in his.
Appearances this year in MLB 77 earned runs at 8.2 innings
pitched. And looks like he might be an
opener, so it could even be a bullpen game for the Rockies,
(19:14):
who happen to have one of the worst bullpens and traded away
some of their guys at the deadline.
We do have two. Righties on the bump The Jays
are hitting 268 against righties.
That ranks first. In baseball Rockies.
Are hitting 240 that ranks. 25thand Colorado there's a lot of
bad numbers you can pull out of a hat to show how terrible they
are this year, but they're. 16 and 40 at.
(19:35):
Home By far the worst home record in baseball.
So again, this is a big number I.
Really don't like going above -200 I'll be honest with you
guys, the slate today was kind of difficult, like, you know, if
think all things being equal. You know, I'll take a shot on a
team that's a little bit cheaper.
But I really. Didn't find a ton of.
A great place today, not a bunchof not too many system matches
and Toronto is one of them. So even though it's a little
(19:57):
expensive, I want to lay with the Blue Jays here.
Hope they can get a win in the Rocky Mountains.
I got a -, 235 again. Shop around some books as high
as. 240 or. Even 250.
So tigers, cubbies. Blue.
Jays, let's even get 2 out of 3.Eke out a winning day.
So that about does. It for episode 3. 30 of the all
(20:18):
systems go. Sports betting podcast powered
by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod, of
course, where. We wrap things up.
And I start first by. Saying thank you.
Thank you for taking the time out of your day.
Out of your busy. Lives during the dog days of
summer. I know you're all itching for
football. But you keep grinding baseball.
With me and I appreciate that ifyou want to let me know you
enjoy the pod if you want to help me grow the pod, if.
(20:39):
You haven't done it yet, could you please?
Give this podcast a five star review on Spotify or iTunes if
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Button or recommend the. Pod to a friend.
That would also be fantastic next.
If you enjoy the style of betting breakdown, data-driven,
sharp, contrarian betting. Hope you know when you tune in.
You know these aren't my opinions of who I like today.
(20:59):
This is based on the blueprint of reading the market, looking
at line movement, split system matches, trying to figure out
where the sharpest bets are if that is a style that has
appealed to you. It's maybe provided you a.
Blueprint to attack the sports. Betting market now.
If you enjoy it and you. Want to learn more about it?
Or maybe you know someone who could really use some
data-driven. Tips.
Well, I would. Love for you to go to Amazon.com
(21:22):
and then type in the everything guide to sports betting.
It's the first. Book ever wrote.
Very proud of it, but it's got. Everything I've learned in the
industry. How lines are set?
How and why they move? How to read line movement?
How to? Locate sharp action how to go
contrarian how to. Place a bet in person or online.
How to shop for the best line? How to set up a bankroll?
Management plan. It's all included in the.
(21:42):
Everything guide to sports betting and while you're.
Picking up the everything guide stay.
Right there on Amazon. And then type in the NFL.
Sharp betting playbook. Believe it or not guys, my new
book. The NFL.
Sharp betting playbook. Comes out a week.
From today. We are now just one.
Week away August 12th it goes live to the world.
Can't wait for you guys to get your hands on it if you.
(22:03):
Would like to. Pre-order a copy that way Jeff
Bezos drops it off with a drone right on your front porch.
You know, right there on August 12th.
That would really make my day. You'd make my publisher Triumph
Books. Happy.
You'd make me happy and I think you're going to make.
Yourself happy because I'm pretty proud of this thing.
I've been working on it for quite a while, over three years
at this point, and it's got everything I've learned about
(22:25):
how to bet the NFL from a data-driven perspective.
So I'd love for you guys to pre-order a copy and check it
out. And then once you do.
Bring the everything guide. Bring the NFL sharp betting
playbook. To the sports book, I'll sign
them for you. Buy a beer or ginger ale, we'll
get some nachos, and we'll sweatsome baseball games together
tonight next, have you? Downloaded Rhythm in Juice.
Real yet? My 2.
Favorite sports betting apps? So if you haven't, you got to
(22:48):
get on that because Rhythm is fantastic for their AI backed
models and predictions for game bets and player props.
Of course they got WNBA and MLB right now, but we got football
coming up here shortly. Going to see those system
matches populate. And they're really great for a
lot of these like college games that are kind of unknown, like
when, you know, I don't know, Kennesaw State is playing
(23:10):
Western Michigan or I don't evenknow, like these obscure
matchups with the rhythm predictions.
They can really come in handy and help the handicap.
But then also. Go download juice Reel.
This is the part of the pod where I'm going to hold out the
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(23:31):
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So hopefully it's it's a it's a worthwhile endeavor for you.
(23:52):
But also you're at the robo Jackson best bet picks the sharp
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sharper bets. Lastly, do you have a live odds
page? When I was giving you those?
(24:14):
The baseball games, obviously, but all the football games, the
preseason ones, I was looking atmy odds logic live odds page
telling me we had these big moves obviously toward, you
know, like Vegas, we talked about in in Cincinnati and
Indianapolis and the odds page is so.
Critical to being a. Successful sports better?
Because need a starting point. You got to know all the games
available to bet, the start times, the live scoring, the
(24:36):
live in game wagering odds. But most importantly.
You got to know what the games opened at and what the current
odds are. You can quickly see which
direction the lines are moving. You can identify Steam when
odds. Get lit up in red you can pull
up the line history you can get.Obviously the shopping for the
best line is always critical, but the live odds page is super
important and the best one around for the cheapest price is
(24:59):
odds logic, so maybe you have one you like.
But it's expensive. Or you have 1:00 and it's free,
but it's delayed and it doesn't.Give you any books you got to
give odds logic a shot. I would really suggest trying it
out now. That way once football gets back
you'll have a little bit of of time under your belt knowing how
to interpret it. But it's pretty straightforward
and if you want to give it a shot with a 7 day free trial and
50. Percent off your first month.
(25:20):
Just use this special link Odds logic.com/josh 123.
So that about does it. For episode 330 of the ASG Pod.
On a Tuesday here guys. As always, I'm leaving with two
final thoughts. Whether I see you at the Borgata
in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
Hampshire, Foxwoods, or Mohegan.Sun down in Connecticut.
(25:43):
At the Encore in Boston or Plainridge Park casino MGM
Springfield. Or the Nash around around these
parts where I'm at, which is a little bit northwest of Boston,
about 10 minutes. From the border.
Of New Hampshire, or, of course,out in the desert, where the
true grinders get down. Where?
Billy Walter sends his. Number runners where the lowest
juice possible is found at the. South point or sweat and sharp
contrarian. Plays jumping in the stadium
(26:05):
swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
Circo, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
Show me a nice. Brew Crew ticket, we'll # a beer
together. We'll shotgun a beer for the
beer makers and also the Tigers.And guess what?
First one's on me, next one's onyou.
We'll post about the book and sweat some games together.
As always guys two and one, one and two, three and OO and three
after a winning. Night or losing night?
(26:27):
A great night or a terrible night?
Or just grinding, treading waterwe always got to get.
You know, stay even keeled. I should say don't get too high,
don't get too low when things are going well, don't get cocky.
And arrogant because it's a difficult.
Market to win consistently at, but also when you're struggling
and you feeling like you can't, you know, hit the broadside of a
barn, nothing's going your way. You're cursed.
(26:47):
Don't get. Down on yourself, keep grinding,
just stick with it because you're never as bad as you think
when you're cold, you're never as good as you think when you're
hot. But if we can stick to that.
Model in that blueprint find games that.
Fit our criteria against the public with the house, with the
pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that.
CLV if we can do that. And I'm confident that we can
then guess what we're going to be successful sports bettors.
(27:09):
So have a. Fantastic Tuesday night
everybody again, enjoy these. 3 pack of baseball nights because
you know, pretty soon as there'sgoing to be a lot more going on,
but let's see if we can get somewinners tonight.
Go Tigers, go Cubs, go Jays, andI will see you guys back
tomorrow on a big Wednesday edition, Hump day edition,
episode 331 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
(27:30):
powered by Rhythm. Good luck.
Everybody and have a great Tuesday night.
Hello and welcome to. Episode 3. 30 of the all.
Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh. Applebaum, what's going on,
everyone? Happy Tuesday.
Another day here in the arena. Guys, as we kick off the month
(00:40):
of August, you know what that means?
We got. NFL preseason in full swing.
Before you know, we're going to college football back and.
Then it's going to be the regular season.
And then don't even, you know, think too far ahead, but.
We got the NBA. College basketball.
Hockey's coming back in October again.
Enjoy these dog days of summer because pretty soon the days of
baseball. Only and some people.
(01:01):
Might be happy about this, others may not because I love
grinding baseball every single day, but pretty soon we're going
to have a lot of different sports to choose from.
So we've gotten to the groove ofyou know 3 packs in Major League
Baseball trying to eke out two and one nights, which we did
yesterday but just keep in mind that hey you know we're probably
going to expand to maybe 4 bets a night 5 bets a night.
I really don't try to go above 5unless you.
(01:23):
Really, really love. A bunch of plays because really
the quickest way to to. Lose money and and see.
Your bankroll dissipate or evaporate is when you have too
many bets. And I always make the joke and
actually included in my my new book, the NFL Sharp Betting
Playbook that you got to limit your plays.
If you have one glass of wine a night with dinner, hey, that's
good. Some people even say a glass of
red wine is good for your heart if you have 10.
(01:44):
Glasses of wine every night. Or five or more, you probably
have a problem. So I look at glasses of wine
like I do number of bets I have each night, always trying to
again focus on. And again, you may start a day
with loving 7 or 8 bets and get them down to four or five or
maybe got 5 down to three. Less is more when it comes to
sports betting because there's always.
Going to be more. Days and more games to bet on,
(02:05):
but if you have too many plays, you need to overextend yourself
again, that's when a bad night, you know, an O and three stinks,
but an O and five, an O and seven, a one and eight, that's
even worse. But I did want to get you guys
to get a little bit excited because we're going to have a
lot of these sports, especially football, of course, returning
here pretty shortly. We did hit on and by the way, I
do have another 3 pack of baseball plays for you guys
today, 11 bigger line couple medium to moderate size numbers.
(02:30):
So we're going to see if we can eke out another two in one
night, but I wanted to mention. Just some of these.
Preseason games, because we talked about it yesterday.
There's three games coming up onThursday, so just two days from
now and we've all already. Seen a ton of line.
Movement, one that really caughtmy eye.
Was Vegas in Seattle? This is a 10:00 game on Thursday
night and we actually opened this game.
Seattle favored. By about a point and a half.
(02:52):
Well, we talked about how the line already flipped on
yesterday's pod over to Vegas plus 1 1/2 to -2 1/2 and then
right before I started the pod, I just.
Saw Vegas get steamed up to -4 1/2 so a ton of movement toward
the Raiders. This is one of those games where
information based betting is super critical because it looks
like Seattle's going to sit pretty much all their guys.
(03:13):
Vegas is going to play a lot of their guys, which is why you're
seeing this line flip toward Vegas.
But. You know if you're minus. 2 1/2.
-3 or less. You can convince me maybe?
A money line play, you know -150or less.
But now that you're seeing Vegasup to -4 1/2, that's what an
example of a game where if you're late to the party, like
1, if you played it, if you got Vegas, like my guy Devin
(03:34):
Hernandez, who did a great job, I think he got plus 1 1/2, then
you're feeling great right now. There's nothing else you can do.
You're getting. CLV like you read about, but if
you haven't played it yet, I'm not going to rush to the window
and lay 4 1/2. Maybe Vegas wins by, you know, 5
or more and it doesn't matter. But really the point of these
information based bets is getting down.
Somewhat quickly before the line, really.
(03:56):
Gets away from you. Like, for example, Vegas is now
-5 -, 4 1/2. Let's say Vegas wins by three.
That means everyone. And again, got to remember.
The key numbers 3. 76 You know 10 even seen with the extra
point being moved back, you know, some more games that are
landing on a margin of five. But the whole point being there
is that. You know Vegas wins by. 3 Then
(04:17):
that means. Everyone who got them early as a
dog or -2 now for less. Wins.
You lay a. 4 1/2 the worst of the number.
To me. That's a cardinal sin in
betting. You never want to lay the worst
of the number. Now you may, you know, rob a
bank and get away with it and not get caught, But if you
consistently bet the worst of the number, it's like the
opposite of CLV, then pretty soon you're going to get clipped
and you're going to see people who bet the game before you cash
(04:39):
and you're going to be, you know, steaming because you you
lost and got the worst of it. I'm starting to look at some of
these totals like also if you. Look at Cincy Philly.
Same sort of thing Philly, actually.
Opened a short favorite. We flipped all the way to the.
Bengals now minus. 6 1/2, I believe they're -4 yesterday or
even as low as, yeah, I think they're -4 So that line
(05:00):
continues to creep up. And then the same thing with
Indy and Baltimore seeing that line continue to go toward the
Colts. That was basically a Colts
getting a point. Now to lane 4/4 and 1/2.
So whole point. Being is.
We're tracking these lines. But we got to pounce on them
quick. And if you missed the number,
it's OK to lay off. Remember, we're trying to pick
spots and really not not get toocrazy before the regular season
(05:23):
starts. So that's when we're really
going to make all of our money. So just wanted to address those
big line moves that a couple people DM me and say, hey, you
like Vegas 4 1/2. And I'm like, I like the steam
in their favor, but I don't likelaying the worst of it.
So again, doing your part, staying glued to Twitter,
figuring out what the coaches are saying, who they're playing
and who they're not. If you can get on it early, you
can really make some hay in the preseason.
But again, if you're late, don'tpush it.
(05:45):
I think we want to kind of just let the dust settle and we'll
see how this goes between today and kick off on on Thursday.
So that being said, little, justa little, you know, wet.
Your whistle here with some somefootball talk, but I do want to
get back to Major League Baseball.
We did have a good start. To the week.
Last night 2 and. 1 + 0.3 units So got 1/3 of a unit, we'll take
(06:06):
it. Had a couple.
Nice hits. There with the tigers.
Tigers are actually down early, came back in. 16 to 3:00.
And then also the brew crew man break up the beer makers.
Unbelievable 3 to one had a big hit there who was a Contreras
and kid a Homer but they hung on.
Only loser was Miami team that'sred hot.
Of course we play them, pick them to fave line move and they
(06:28):
get blown out eight to two, so can't win them all, but hey, 2
and 1/3 of a. Unit A winning night.
We'll take it, put in our back pocket or reinvest it to today.
That being said. Three pack for today.
Guys, let's waste no. More time.
I want to get this pot out a little early because I got some
games I want to talk about South.
First one on the board, 6:40 PM Eastern Time. 1st.
(06:48):
Pitch, Let's talk, Twinkies. And Detroit Tigers right back to
the scene of the crime last night.
All right, I guess what's the opposite of a crime?
Something that was really good because the Detroit Tigers won.
I hope that continues here tour for tonight.
So setting the stage, you have the Tigers. 66 and 48 on the
year. They won that opener for us last
night 6 to 3, coming through as a -185 home favorite in
(07:11):
tonight's rematch. The Twinkies 52 and 60 on the
year, They're going to go with the ready Zebby.
Matthews. He's.
Two and three with. A5 point. 6-7 ER a.
He'll be opposed by the Tigers fellow righty Chris Paddock, who
they picked up in a trade, ironically from Minnesota.
He's 4:00 and 9:00 with a 4.77 ER a.
So what do you see across the market here?
(07:31):
Well, this game opened Detroit around a -, 135.
Home favorite Minnesota A + 115 row dog and I was kind of
looking at this. Opening number.
Because some books were way off.Like I saw some opener number
opening numbers of Detroit like.-160 -, 170.
But then I was looking at FanDuel and a couple others and
they were more like -135 So you always got to kind of double
(07:52):
check and make sure you're getting kind of the true opener
because books are always going to fluctuate because they have
different, you know, clientele, whether they cater to casual
betters or recreational betters.Some books are opening lines
themselves, others are just piggybacking and just shading
one way or the other. But it looks like the the true
opener here to me, look more like a -, 135.
(08:13):
And since that opener, it's all been movement back toward
Detroit. So it looks like pros pounced on
Tigers around -135 that now steam them up to around -145.
Some shops even as high as -150.I jumped on the Tigers at -1.
38A. Little bit earlier today, looks
like your best number is -140. Two currently at FanDuel, but if
(08:34):
you. Look at the splits here.
Big Pro and Joe split in. Favor of the Tigers at
DraftKings. Getting 86%.
Of money line bets, 88% of moneyline dollars, so nice low bets,
higher dollar split in favor of Detroit.
This is a bit. Of a system match play for me, I
have 4 system matches. And a bunch of good ones here
lighting up on Detroit. Just give you a few of them.
(08:56):
Favorites off a win. With a winning record getting at
least $0.05 of line movement. Against the team who missed.
The playoffs the previous year. This is the same one that
matched with Detroit yesterday, but that.
System is 133 and 61, 69 percent, 6%.
ROI this year home. Favorites in the second game of
a new. Series after winning the opener.
129 and 70. 464%. With a 3%.
(09:19):
ROI then if we isolate Detroit in particular in the spot,
they've been highly profitable. Detroit is 32 and 1765% win
rate. 5% ROI as a home favorite and when their home.
Favorite getting at least $0.10 of movement.
In their direction. They're 25 and 7, 78 percent,
22%. ROI, in particular, the Tigers
(09:41):
are also. 18 and. Five against as a.
Home favorite against a below. 500.
Team. That's a 78% win rate with a 20%
ROI. Aside from the line move.
The splits the. Systems.
I'm going to lean on Detroit's bats, hopefully getting to
Matthews. They're hitting 250 on the year,
147 home runs, 549 runs scored. Minnesota, meanwhile, hitting
(10:03):
only 240 with 129 homers and 465runs.
Scored now Paddock. On the year his numbers don't
look great 4.77 ERA, but he justgot dealt from Minnesota to
Detroit and in his. Debut he's.
Making a second start with Detroit tonight, but in his
debut 6 innings, one run, seven to two went.
Over the D backs, so maybe he's a reinvigorated.
(10:26):
By going to a contender now. On the other hand, Matthews.
He made three. Starts in July 6. .28 ERA and on
the road 6.63 ERA at. Home.
A decent 4.4 O, but he's really.Struggled in July and on the
road and it's again past July and he's on the road tonight and
then lastly. Little home Rd. splits I was
(10:47):
notable to me. Tigers 37 and 21 at home.
One of the better home teams in baseball.
The Twins, only 22 and. 36 on the road, one of the worst Rd.
Teams in baseball, so we've seenline.
Movement toward Detroit. We got a.
Pretty good. Pro and Joe Bet split a lot of.
System matches here in general, but also.
Specifically tied to the Tigers in the spot.
Better bats, hopefully the better pitcher on the bump.
(11:09):
I laid it with the tigers -138 again.
Looks like your best price now is around -142 at FanDuel.
Next one for you. Let's go to an 80. 5:00 PM
Eastern Time. First pitch out in Chicago.
Yeah, get some. Chicago Dogs.
I'm Chicago. Let's go, cubbies.
At home against the red legs, soReds.
(11:30):
Come in 59 and 54. They won last night's.
Series opener 3 to 2 came through as.
A + 115 row dog pitching match up here for tonight.
Reds are going to go with the newly acquired Zach Litelle. 8
and 8 three-point. 58 ERA just picked him up at the deadline
from the Rays, the Cubs. Meanwhile, who are 65 and 47?
They're going to go with the lefty shota and managa.
(11:52):
Who's 8 and four with a three? .25 era.
So what do you sit across the market here?
Well, this game open cubbies around a -, 170 home favorite
Red legs around a + 150 row dog.And pros have jumped all over
the Cubs in this one. So I'm going cubbies.
They've gone from -170 now up to-175 -, 180.
(12:14):
Some shops. Even -190 a lot of.
Steam here hitting. Chicago causing that line to go
higher in their direction. So, you know, on the one hand,
good thing it's clear you know lines going Chicago not great if
you haven't bet it yet because again, this price is getting a
little more expensive. But if you look at the.
Splits over at DraftKings around80%.
Of bets and dollars. On the money line, going with
(12:34):
the. Cubbies and the Cubs are also
matching quite a few systems, and you know a few of these by
now. One Chicago is great as a
favorite. They're the second best.
Chalk team in baseball. When the Cubs are favored,
they've gone. 52 and 2667 percent, 8%.
ROI when they're favored and getting line movement in their
direction. Listen to this They're 45 and
(12:56):
1674% with an 18%. ROI And then lastly, you might
know the drill, but if you listen to the cap, as I kind of
laid this game out, Cubs lost last night.
Who do we? Love to bet off a loss the
Cubbies, baby. The Cubs are 30.
One and 1272%. 25% ROI off a loss, that is the best.
(13:19):
Bounce back team in. All of baseball.
Cubs also have some correlative betting value.
They're a bigger. Favorite here?
Again -175 -. 185 and they are in a low.
Total game of seven. And a half.
So when the line keeps going up to the favorite, you got a low
total. Lot of these 7 halfs are even
juiced. Under 7 1/2 under 7 half -115
(13:41):
You always got to think about the weather.
If it's a low total juiced under.
Typically it means winds blowingin at Wrigley Field, which It is
about 7 mph tonight from dead center, but the fair amount of.
Expected runs scored. More likely to come from quote
UN quote that better team was expected to win, which would be
in this case the Cubs. Cubs bats have been better this
year. Than the Reds hitting two 54160
(14:03):
home runs, 581 runs. Scored.
Meanwhile, the Reds. Are only hitting 247 on the air,
116 home. Runs 500.
And 15 runs scored. Now in managa the he's made. 15
starts this year. The Cubs are.
Ten and five in those games if you also look at lefty righty.
The Cubs are going up against. Letel, who's a righty?
(14:23):
Well, guess what? Chicago's hitting 255 against.
Righty's this year, 6th best in baseball.
Reds going up against Imanaga, alefty.
They're only hitting 221 against.
Southpaws that's. 28th in baseball.
Lastly, classic Home Rd. Splits since the couple games
below. 500 as a visitor. They're 26 and 28.
But if you look at Chicago. 35 and. 21 at home one of the
(14:46):
better home teams in baseball. So you.
Had me at. Cubs off a loss.
We got some line movement, some good split, some good systems.
I want to back in Managa and I want to fade Lattell.
He's actually. Been a pretty decent.
Pitcher last few years, but. You're going on a new team.
It's a new catcher. It's a whole new, you know, set
of teammates, surroundings. Coaching staff, that's a little
bit of a sneaky. Fade.
For me, guy making his debut on a new team bad all up.
(15:09):
I'm going to sweat the Cubs tonight, guys.
I got a -1. 75 at BET. MGM again, shop around.
Some books are closer to -180 -,185.
Last bet of the night. Let's go.
Out to the Rocky Mountains, 8:40PM Eastern Time.
The Blue Jays visiting the Colorado Rockies now coming into
it, we got the Jays. 66 and 48 and they absolutely.
(15:31):
Crushed the Rockies last. Night 15 to 1 and the opener
coming through easily. As a -. 225 Rd.
Favorite. Pitching matchup In tonight's
rematch, we have the Jays going with the ready Jose Barrios.
He's seven and four with a 3.84.ERA and the.
Rockies who are 30 and 82. Yeah.
That that's true. 30 and 82, what a record they're going to
(15:53):
go. With the ready Anthony Molina.
Who's O&O with A7? .27 ERA So what do we see across
the market here? Well this game open very heavy
tort Toronto a -. 200 Rd. favorite Colorado around a + 170
home dog. What's notable to me is that
when you open as a big Rd. favorite, you know, does the
line go? Up higher in.
Your favor? Because.
(16:14):
Hey, it's a mismatch and you know they're.
Going to roll for a reason. Because they're expected to.
Or do you? See the line fall.
Toward the home team because. It's just a good value play to
take a big home dog. Well, it looks.
Like in this one. It's pretty clear it's the.
Former, not the latter, because this line is only shot up
further. Toward the Blue Jays.
Blue Jays went from -200 up to -2. 35 some shops.
(16:37):
As high as even 240, even 250. So this is a big, big number and
I really don't like betting laying big prices like this, but
I'm seeing a lot of indicators, a lot of system matches on the
Jays, so I'm playing the. Jays tonight, Big steam.
I got a minus. 2:30. 5 Again bignumber.
Always remember bettress not betto win.
If you're betting Jays tonight, or Cubs or Detroit or any game
(16:58):
we ever mentioned, you're alwaysbetting to risk, not win.
That means if. You're playing Jays.
You're. Not risking. 2.3. 5 units to win
one unit that would be betting to win.
No, you're just risking your oneunit like any other.
Bet in this case you get a little less than 1/2 unit back
if Toronto can come through. Now if you look at the splits.
Lighten up, pretty. Good on the Jays. 93% of money
line bets. Over 95%.
(17:20):
Of money line dollars at DraftKings, then over at circa
60% of bets, 98% of dollars. So a big low bets, higher dollar
split telling us the wise guys in Vegas are having the courage
to lay that big chalk with Toronto.
Then we get into some of these system matches.
Big Rd. favorites -200 or more. 37 and 14 this year, 73 percent,
(17:43):
3%. ROI, so you're actually turning
a profit. Even though you're laying these
big prices. If a.
Big Rd. favorite -200 or more isgetting $0.20 of steam or more
in their favor. They're 19 and four this year.
83 percent 17% ROI. Toronto is 24 and 1267 percent,
11% ROI as a favorite against teams who missed the.
(18:04):
Playoffs the previous year, so cleaning up against.
Bad teams doing. What you're supposed to do?
Jays also off their offense. Went off yesterday but hope it.
Continues tonight, they're hitting 267 on the year.
They've scored five. 146 runs. Rockies are hitting 237.
They've scored 419 runs. Weirdly enough, burrios.
Has been better on the road 3.36ERA and at night 2.68 ERA then
(18:30):
at home 4.34. ERA and during the day five
point. 8-9 ERA. So he's been better on the road.
And at night and worse at. Home and in the day while he's
on the road at night tonight, sothat would match up well and we
do have. Toronto 10 and 2.
In his last 12 starts. Meanwhile, Molina.
Don't feel bad if you never heard of this guy.
I had never heard of this guy. I was wondering if he's one of
(18:52):
the Molina, Benji Molina and allthose catchers.
I don't think he is. Maybe he is, I don't know, but
he's only. Making his sixth appearance this
year, his first appearance sinceJune 20. 5th and in his.
Appearances this year in MLB 77 earned runs at 8.2 innings
pitched. And looks like he might be an
opener, so it could even be a bullpen game for the Rockies,
(19:14):
who happen to have one of the worst bullpens and traded away
some of their guys at the deadline.
We do have two. Righties on the bump The Jays
are hitting 268 against righties.
That ranks first. In baseball Rockies.
Are hitting 240 that ranks. 25thand Colorado there's a lot of
bad numbers you can pull out of a hat to show how terrible they
are this year, but they're. 16 and 40 at.
(19:35):
Home By far the worst home record in baseball.
So again, this is a big number I.
Really don't like going above -200 I'll be honest with you
guys, the slate today was kind of difficult, like, you know, if
think all things being equal. You know, I'll take a shot on a
team that's a little bit cheaper.
But I really. Didn't find a ton of.
A great place today, not a bunchof not too many system matches
and Toronto is one of them. So even though it's a little
(19:57):
expensive, I want to lay with the Blue Jays here.
Hope they can get a win in the Rocky Mountains.
I got a -, 235 again. Shop around some books as high
as. 240 or. Even 250.
So tigers, cubbies. Blue.
Jays, let's even get 2 out of 3.Eke out a winning day.
So that about does. It for episode 3. 30 of the all
(20:18):
systems go. Sports betting podcast powered
by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod, of
course, where. We wrap things up.
And I start first by. Saying thank you.
Thank you for taking the time out of your day.
Out of your busy. Lives during the dog days of
summer. I know you're all itching for
football. But you keep grinding baseball.
With me and I appreciate that ifyou want to let me know you
enjoy the pod if you want to help me grow the pod, if.
(20:39):
You haven't done it yet, could you please?
Give this podcast a five star review on Spotify or iTunes if
you want to leave a nice commentor click the follow.
Button or recommend the. Pod to a friend.
That would also be fantastic next.
If you enjoy the style of betting breakdown, data-driven,
sharp, contrarian betting. Hope you know when you tune in.
You know these aren't my opinions of who I like today.
(20:59):
This is based on the blueprint of reading the market, looking
at line movement, split system matches, trying to figure out
where the sharpest bets are if that is a style that has
appealed to you. It's maybe provided you a.
Blueprint to attack the sports. Betting market now.
If you enjoy it and you. Want to learn more about it?
Or maybe you know someone who could really use some
data-driven. Tips.
Well, I would. Love for you to go to Amazon.com
(21:22):
and then type in the everything guide to sports betting.
It's the first. Book ever wrote.
Very proud of it, but it's got. Everything I've learned in the
industry. How lines are set?
How and why they move? How to read line movement?
How to? Locate sharp action how to go
contrarian how to. Place a bet in person or online.
How to shop for the best line? How to set up a bankroll?
Management plan. It's all included in the.
(21:42):
Everything guide to sports betting and while you're.
Picking up the everything guide stay.
Right there on Amazon. And then type in the NFL.
Sharp betting playbook. Believe it or not guys, my new
book. The NFL.
Sharp betting playbook. Comes out a week.
From today. We are now just one.
Week away August 12th it goes live to the world.
Can't wait for you guys to get your hands on it if you.
(22:03):
Would like to. Pre-order a copy that way Jeff
Bezos drops it off with a drone right on your front porch.
You know, right there on August 12th.
That would really make my day. You'd make my publisher Triumph
Books. Happy.
You'd make me happy and I think you're going to make.
Yourself happy because I'm pretty proud of this thing.
I've been working on it for quite a while, over three years
at this point, and it's got everything I've learned about
(22:25):
how to bet the NFL from a data-driven perspective.
So I'd love for you guys to pre-order a copy and check it
out. And then once you do.
Bring the everything guide. Bring the NFL sharp betting
playbook. To the sports book, I'll sign
them for you. Buy a beer or ginger ale, we'll
get some nachos, and we'll sweatsome baseball games together
tonight next, have you? Downloaded Rhythm in Juice.
Real yet? My 2.
Favorite sports betting apps? So if you haven't, you got to
(22:48):
get on that because Rhythm is fantastic for their AI backed
models and predictions for game bets and player props.
Of course they got WNBA and MLB right now, but we got football
coming up here shortly. Going to see those system
matches populate. And they're really great for a
lot of these like college games that are kind of unknown, like
when, you know, I don't know, Kennesaw State is playing
(23:10):
Western Michigan or I don't evenknow, like these obscure
matchups with the rhythm predictions.
They can really come in handy and help the handicap.
But then also. Go download juice Reel.
This is the part of the pod where I'm going to hold out the
tip jar. This podcast is free if you want
to support the pod. I'd love for you guys to sign up
to get the All Systems Go official best bets, which you
(23:31):
can only find on Juice Reel. So for $4.
And $0.99 a week you're going to.
Get every play I make. You can tail fade, do whatever
you like, but hopefully you can get some insight and maybe beat
some closing lines. And just know that you're
tipping your. Podcast host that's the way I
look at it and 5 bucks it's a couple a cup of coffee.
So hopefully it's it's a it's a worthwhile endeavor for you.
(23:52):
But also you're at the robo Jackson best bet picks the sharp
mush indicators the arbitrage plays the shop for the best line
futures sync up your sports books all available to you in
the juice reel app. So download Juice Reel.
Download. Rhythm, give them a five star
view in the App Store and you'llbe off and running making
sharper bets. Lastly, do you have a live odds
page? When I was giving you those?
(24:14):
The baseball games, obviously, but all the football games, the
preseason ones, I was looking atmy odds logic live odds page
telling me we had these big moves obviously toward, you
know, like Vegas, we talked about in in Cincinnati and
Indianapolis and the odds page is so.
Critical to being a. Successful sports better?
Because need a starting point. You got to know all the games
available to bet, the start times, the live scoring, the
(24:36):
live in game wagering odds. But most importantly.
You got to know what the games opened at and what the current
odds are. You can quickly see which
direction the lines are moving. You can identify Steam when
odds. Get lit up in red you can pull
up the line history you can get.Obviously the shopping for the
best line is always critical, but the live odds page is super
important and the best one around for the cheapest price is
(24:59):
odds logic, so maybe you have one you like.
But it's expensive. Or you have 1:00 and it's free,
but it's delayed and it doesn't.Give you any books you got to
give odds logic a shot. I would really suggest trying it
out now. That way once football gets back
you'll have a little bit of of time under your belt knowing how
to interpret it. But it's pretty straightforward
and if you want to give it a shot with a 7 day free trial and
50. Percent off your first month.
(25:20):
Just use this special link Odds logic.com/josh 123.
So that about does it. For episode 330 of the ASG Pod.
On a Tuesday here guys. As always, I'm leaving with two
final thoughts. Whether I see you at the Borgata
in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
Hampshire, Foxwoods, or Mohegan.Sun down in Connecticut.
(25:43):
At the Encore in Boston or Plainridge Park casino MGM
Springfield. Or the Nash around around these
parts where I'm at, which is a little bit northwest of Boston,
about 10 minutes. From the border.
Of New Hampshire, or, of course,out in the desert, where the
true grinders get down. Where?
Billy Walter sends his. Number runners where the lowest
juice possible is found at the. South point or sweat and sharp
contrarian. Plays jumping in the stadium
(26:05):
swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
Circo, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
Show me a nice. Brew Crew ticket, we'll # a beer
together. We'll shotgun a beer for the
beer makers and also the Tigers.And guess what?
First one's on me, next one's onyou.
We'll post about the book and sweat some games together.
As always guys two and one, one and two, three and OO and three
after a winning. Night or losing night?
(26:27):
A great night or a terrible night?
Or just grinding, treading waterwe always got to get.
You know, stay even keeled. I should say don't get too high,
don't get too low when things are going well, don't get cocky.
And arrogant because it's a difficult.
Market to win consistently at, but also when you're struggling
and you feeling like you can't, you know, hit the broadside of a
barn, nothing's going your way. You're cursed.
(26:47):
Don't get. Down on yourself, keep grinding,
just stick with it because you're never as bad as you think
when you're cold, you're never as good as you think when you're
hot. But if we can stick to that.
Model in that blueprint find games that.
Fit our criteria against the public with the house, with the
pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that.
CLV if we can do that. And I'm confident that we can
then guess what we're going to be successful sports bettors.
(27:09):
So have a. Fantastic Tuesday night
everybody again, enjoy these. 3 pack of baseball nights because
you know, pretty soon as there'sgoing to be a lot more going on,
but let's see if we can get somewinners tonight.
Go Tigers, go Cubs, go Jays, andI will see you guys back
tomorrow on a big Wednesday edition, Hump day edition,
episode 331 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
(27:30):
powered by Rhythm. Good luck.
Everybody and have a great Tuesday night.
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