August 6, 2025 • 26 mins
In Episode 331, Josh dishes out a 3-pack of MLB plays for Wednesday. Plus a look at tomorrow's NFL preseason action with a notable betting system match.
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Josh's new book "The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook" comes out on August 12, 2025
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:19):
Hello, and welcome to episode 331 of the All Systems Go Sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I am your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Wednesday. It's officially hump day.
That means we are halfway through our work week and also
(00:41):
it means we're just 24 hours away from some NFL preseason
action. Three games, obviously playing
tomorrow, Colts, Baltimore, Cincy, Philly and Vegas and
Seattle. And we've seen some massive line
moves on all three games. Kind of been hitting on this,
you know, the beginning of each pod throughout the week.
And I was actually able to dig up something because I was
wondering to myself, man, these lines have moved so much.
(01:04):
Is it still valuable to take theteam's getting line movement now
I'm a data-driven better. You guys know that by now.
I want to be with the line movestells me that hey, I'm with the
smart money causing the shift inthe market, but also I don't
want to chase steam. Now Steam is very important.
Steam is an overload of smart money across the marketplace,
forcing the entire market to move.
(01:25):
It typically happens when wise guys, syndicates who are groups
of wise guys together pooling their resources, just really get
down super hard on a specific side and then 'cause the whole
market to shift. Now Steam isn't just one book
moving, it's the entire marketplace.
And I've been talking to you guys about odds logic.
Odds logic is a great opportunity or great kind of,
(01:45):
you know, situation where you can identify steam because as
soon as the lines change or move, you'll, they'll get lit up
in red. And the whole point is that you
don't want to chase the steam and be too late to the party.
You want to get the steam at thesame triggering number.
So if the entire market is, you know -1 and then we start to see
it creep up -1 1/2 - 2, you wantto get a book that still hasn't
(02:07):
moved off the -1 If you're getting the triggering number
and you're with the steam, that's a great sign because
you're getting the same number. The pros like the wise guys
like. But if you're late to the party,
lot of times you can lose a bet because you're getting the worst
of the number. So for example, the three games
for tomorrow, we opened Baltimore and Indianapolis.
Basically a pick em or even Baltimore may be favored by a
(02:28):
point. It's all the way up now to Colts
-6 Philly. In Cincinnati, we open Philly, a
short 2 point favorite. Now it's -6 Cincinnati.
And then Vegas in Seattle open Seattle laying a point and a
half. Now it's all the way up to -4
1/2 Looks like it may even go tofive with Vegas.
So it's very clear that the Colts, the Bengals, and the
(02:51):
Raiders are all getting big movement in their favor.
But I ask you this, what number did the sharps like the Colts
at? You know, it was probably -1 -,
2 - 3. Do they still like a -, 6?
I'm not sure. Probably not since he opened
again, getting a point or two. Now they're laying 6.
Did pros want to lay the six? No, they got a much earlier
(03:11):
Vegas in Seattle. Seattle open laying -1 1/2.
Did pros like Vegas getting a point and 1/2?
Or maybe laying one or two maybeor probably most likely.
But do they like them laying 4 1/2 or even 5?
Maybe not. So my whole point being is I
don't want to go with the steam when we're chasing it.
And I actually went into my my historical database and I drew
(03:32):
this up. I went to pre season games.
And 1 angle that we've seen historically is that actually
dogs do better in the pre seasonthan favorites.
This is a pretty big sample sizeif you look all the way back,
and this is huge all the way back since around 2005 S, nearly
a 20 year sample of preseason games.
Dogs are 625 and 562 atsa 52.7% cover rate.
(03:58):
That's actually good for plus 34units, a 3% ROI.
So it goes to show you and again, what's the magic number
to overcome -110 juice. It's 52.38, so 52.7%.
You could round it up to 53. That's actually pretty good
taking the dogs. But here's where it gets even
better. When I go to my database and I
look at line movement in specifically, and I look at the
(04:19):
spread change open to current. What I was looking at is let's
say you're a dog and the line ismoved at least two points
against you. So basically you're getting more
points off the opener then then or you're getting more points
now then you got off the opener.Well, dogs in that spot improved
to 53.1% with a 4% ROI. Let's make it even bigger.
(04:42):
If we go to a team getting a doggetting five points or more
again, cuz he's all match, they improved to or sorry, five
points or more off the opener. They're now 30 and 2159 percent,
14% ROI. And that would match with all
four of those are all three of those dogs, I should say.
(05:02):
So I'm thinking maybe we take some of these dogs for tomorrow.
The Lions have moved so much andcrazy things happen in the
second-half of these games. And the other angle here is all
these totals are pretty low, 36 and half 37 and half 37.
So it's not like they're expecting a ton of points.
So it's kind of hard to cover a big number like that when you're
looking at a lower scoring game.So I just wanted to mention that
(05:24):
I'm going to do a little bit more digging into these games
here. But dogs have done well in the
preseason. These numbers have moved a ton
and what I would call inflated line dogs getting five points or
more, they're covering nearly 60% of the time historically.
And if you look at actually the past system results, they are
123-4567 and O the last 7. And you actually had last year
(05:46):
there were let's see, 12345 yeah, basically 7 situations
that all came through. So just a little little sports
betting nugget there. But again, big movement.
I'm thinking of maybe buying lowand let's let's think if we can
get greedy, Can we get Baltimoreplus 6 1/2?
Can we get Philly plus 6 1/2? Can we get Seattle +5?
Again? That's really what I'm thinking
(06:07):
as of now. So with that being said, I want
to know kind of turn the page totoday.
We do have a three pack of MLB sweats for you.
Big jam packed Wednesday edition, 15 games overall and
three caught my eye with some big steam.
And we're going to see if we canget this pot out a little bit
early because all three of the games that I'm on are a 12:35 PM
(06:28):
Eastern Time game and two 1:10 PM Eastern Time games.
So let's see if we can get this out and let you guys listen to
the breakdowns and decide if youwant a tail fade pick and choose
whatever you want to do. Of course, we're going to try to
go 2 and 1 eek out a winning day, which is always our goal.
Now, looking back toward last night, kind of an annoying 1 and
2 -, 1.57 unit night. Didn't have a big winner with
(06:50):
the Blue Jays. Remember that was a massive
steam move in their favor. Actually got down early and came
back and rolled, which was nice.And actually it kind of looked
like a blowout, but it was kind of closer than that.
What do they win like 10 to 4? The losers were the Cubs lost 5
to one. That was a one, one to one game.
I think in the 7th inning they bring in Andrew Kittridge, guy
with a big beard. He's actually been pretty good
(07:10):
historically. He gets completely lit up and
implodes and gives up five runs or four runs, whatever it was.
And then the Tigers let us down early.
I knew we were kind of on the bad side of that because right
as the game was, or I was looking up the lineups, I saw
Glaber Torres was scratched, which was never a good thing.
And then Chris Paddock also got lit up.
So Tigers, Cubs letting us down.At least we got the Blue Jays.
(07:34):
We're going to see if we can start a new winning streak here
for today. So that being said, let's dive
right in. Three plays again, trying to go
2 and 1, eke out a winning day. First one on the board for me.
Early match up. As I mentioned, Baltimore
Orioles at the Philadelphia Phillies.
Let's set the stage. Talk line movement, talk splits
and systems. I'll give you my play for this
one. So going into it, going into it,
(07:55):
we got the Phillies 65 and 48 onthe year.
They won the first two games of this interleague series,
dominating the opener 13 to 3, coming through as a -, 200 home
favorite. Then they won again yesterday, 5
nothing as a -145 home favorite.So in this early afternoon
series finale, the O's who are 51 and 63, they're going to go
(08:15):
with the lefty Trevor Rogers four and two 1.44 ERA.
Meanwhile, the Phils are going to go with the fellow lefty
Ranger Suarez, 8 and four, 2.68 ERA.
Now, what have we seen across the opener here?
Well, this game opened Philly around a -, 150 home favorite,
Baltimore A + 130 row dog. And pros aren't thinking, you
(08:36):
know, the Orioles, hey, they've lost first two.
They'll avoid the sweep. No, they're getting down hard on
Philly to complete this sweep. We've seen Philly creep up -150
up to around -180 I jumped on Philly at -175 at Bet MGM.
Again, shop around. Some books are -180 even
Caesar's I think is -190 So always have multiple outs and
(08:56):
get that best price. But pretty clear we got one way
movement in favor of Philly at circa 84% of money line bets.
99% of money line dollars are coming in on the fills.
So very obvious one way sharp bet split out in Vegas in favor
of the fills. Then I have 6 system matches lit
up on Philadelphia here. Just a couple of them favorites
(09:19):
off a win with a winning record,getting at least $0.05 of line
movement against a team who madethe playoffs the previous year.
That system is 135 and 6269% with a 7% ROI this year.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season
playing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous
season. Kind of.
And again, Baltimore's a little different because they had a
(09:40):
great year last year and they'vefallen off this year.
But kind of goes to show you that kind of better team at home
who's expected to win kind of the cream rises to the top.
Those teams have gone 105 and 6263% with a 6% ROI.
Phillies by the way, 37 and 13, a 74% win rate, 14% ROI as a
home favorite with a line move in their direction that actually
(10:03):
makes them the second best team in baseball as a home favorite
with a line move. We do have Philly interleague
favorite, lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the
better team. We also have Philly as a
correlative betting value favorite.
This is a very low total of 7 1/2 and this line has crept up
further toward Philly. So fewer amount of expected run
scored, more likely to come fromquote UN quote that better team.
(10:26):
I'm going to bank on the Phills bats hopefully getting to
Rodgers. They picked him up in a trade
last year and he was terrible. He's been better this year.
But Phillies are actually hitting on the season 255.
They've scored 534 runs. Orioles are only hitting 242
with 492 run scored. Also, two lefties on the bump.
Philly's been better against lefties.
(10:47):
They're hitting 2:50. That's ninth best in baseball.
Baltimore's hitting 2/27. That ranks 23rd.
Lastly, just some home Rd. splits.
Philly's been good at home 37 and 20.
Orioles only 24 and 36 on the road.
So it's an early game, but we got a lot of system matches.
Line keep steaming toward the Phills.
I'm going to back Ranger Suarez and see if the Phills can
(11:09):
hopefully complete this sweep. I got Philadelphia -175 at bet
MGM again, shop around. Most books -180 at this point.
Next one for you. 1:10 PM Eastern Time.
First pitch, Let's get some revenge in Detroit.
One of my favorite movies. Detroit Rock City, Old movie if
you've never seen it. If you're a KISS fan or never
(11:31):
looking for a movie to watch. One of my faves anyway.
First pitch 1:10 PM Eastern TimeTwins at Tigers.
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Tigers who are 66 and 49, they won the opener six to
three. Remember we played them that
night came through as a -185 home favorite.
Then unfortunately the Twins were 53 and 60.
(11:51):
Came back with a six to three win yesterday cashing as a + 120
Rd. dog in this afternoon seriesfinale.
Twins are going to go with the ready Pearson Ole O and two 7.5
O ERA tigers going with the ready Jack Flaherty 6 and ten
4.36 ERA and Pearson Ole just kind of funny.
My my favorite comedian is Nate Bargatzi.
(12:12):
If you've never seen this guy, he is freaking hilarious, but
he's got this. He has this great skit
basically, I think it was one ofhis recent Netflix specials
where he's like they know he's from the South and he makes fun
of himself. He's like they never taught us
like how to pronounce words and and I I look at instead of oil
OIL, he calls it Motorol and it's just it's a hilarious skip,
(12:33):
but it always when I see PearsonOL it reminds me of the Nate
Bargatze Motorol. Anyway, side note, but we did
open this game. Detroit as low as a -, 130 home
favorite. The twins, a + 110 row dog.
And at the time we didn't know who the twin starter would be.
It was Mr. TBD, Mr. Unannounced.Once it was announced that OL
(12:54):
would start and he's only going on three days rest.
That was when we saw a huge adjustment toward the tigers
-130 up to -170 and now we've seen the tigers get now as high
as -200 You can still get -190 abet MGM.
I got tigers -185 a little bit earlier today.
If you look at the splits at DraftKings, Tigers, 85% of money
(13:15):
line bets, 95% of money line dollars.
At Circa, 79% of money line bets, 99% of money line dollars.
So both DraftKings and Circa with some pretty good low bets,
higher dollar splits in favor ofDetroit along with that huge
move in their favor. If we isolate the Tigers in the
spot, they're 381967 percent, 7 percent, 7% ROI as a home
(13:40):
favorite with a line move in their direction.
That's the 4th best in baseball.And Detroit is also 18 and 675
percent, 15% ROI as a home favorite against a sub 500 team.
So they've cleaned up as a home favorite when the markets moving
in their direction and they've cleaned up as a home favorite
against bad teams, which hopefully that continues here
today. Tigers have the better offense.
(14:02):
Let's let's light up Mr. Motorolhitting two 5000 and 47 home
runs, 552 runs scored. Twins, meanwhile, hitting two
41131 homers, 471 runs scored. Jack Flaherty's numbers on the
year don't look amazing. Six and ten 4.36 ER 8, But he's
pitched really well recently. Hopefully that's an omen for
(14:23):
today. He's only given up 1 earned run
in his last two starts spanning 12 innings, and he's three and
one with a 2.76 ERA in day games.
He's done very well in day games.
Meanwhile, Mr. Ole is only making his third career
appearance and he's giving up five runs in six innings in his
first 22 appearances. And I was also reading because
(14:44):
he's on short rest he may not gofar in this game.
So it could be even a bullpen game and Minnesota traded away a
lot of their bullpen guys. Lastly, just look at home Rd.
Twins 23 and 26 on the road, Tigers 37 and 22 at home.
One of the better home teams in baseball.
So we've had nothing but movement toward Detroit.
Again, if you wanted to sign up and get those all systems go
(15:06):
best bets from the Juicer Lab, you would have gotten some
better prices here. Tigers -185 that's what I'm
rocking. But again, it looks like -190
still available at Bet MGM, but shop around cuz some books are
closer to -200 last bet of the day.
Again, we got a lot of day sweats today.
Let's go to New York, the Big Apple, where the New York Mets
(15:27):
are hosting the Cleveland Guardians at 1:10 PM Eastern
Time. Going into it, we got the guards
58 and 55. They won the first two games of
this three-game set. They won the opener 7 to 6 and
extras as a + 165 Rd. dog. And then one again yesterday,
3:00 to 2:00 as a + 135 Rd. dog.So pitching matchup for this
interleague series finale, the guards are going with the ready
(15:49):
Gavin Williams. He's six and four with a 3.33 ER
a Meanwhile, the Mets, who are 63 and 51, they're going to go
with the lefty David Peterson. He's seven and four with a 2.83
ER a. So we seen across the market
here. Well, this game opened Mets
around a -, 165 home favorite, Cleveland around a + 150 row dog
(16:11):
and sharps are really banking onthe Mets to avoid the sweep
because we've seen this line go further toward New York.
I got a -, 170, but they've beenbet up -165 now up to around
-180 looks like Caesars is your best price if you want to play
the Mets with me. They're -178 but most other
books are -180 even -185 S good steam in favor of New York.
(16:33):
At DraftKings, the Mets 74% of bets, 81% of dollars.
At Circa, this one really jumpedout to me. 53% of money line
bets, 97% of money line dollars.So big money out in Vegas laying
with the Mets to get back on track. 1 system that jumped out
to me. Home favorites.
This was the one that I think also matched with who was it
(16:55):
with Phillies earlier today, Butthat would be your home
favorites who made the playoffs the previous year, playing
opponent who also made the playoffs the previous year.
One O 5 and 6263 percent, 6% ROI.
The Mets are also 34 and 16, a 68% win rate, 8% ROI as a home
favorite. That makes them the 5th best
(17:16):
home favorite in baseball. New York does have that
correlative betting value. Total in this game is very low,
7 1/2 and the line keeps going toward the favorite.
So if your amount of expected run scored more likely to come
from quote UN quote, that betterteam interleague favorite value
as well. That lack of familiarity
benefiting the better team. And then also the Mets,
hopefully their bats show up today and get to Williams.
(17:36):
They're hitting 241 on the year,139 homers, 500 run scored.
Guardians, meanwhile, hitting two 29118 homers, 446 runs
scored. Peterson has been really good at
home 5 and O with an ERA of justtwo, and he's only given up 1
earned run or less in four of his last five starts.
Meanwhile, Williams been good athome, 2.77 ERA, but on the road
(18:00):
4 point O3. So he's on the road here today.
And meanwhile, the Guardians going up against Peterson, a
lefty, they're only hitting 227 against S paws this year.
That's 22nd baseball. And by the way, the Mets are 38
and 20 at home, 66% win rate, second best home team in all of
baseball. So we've got some big movement
toward the Mets. Really good bet splits, good
(18:22):
system matches. Peterson's been great at home.
I'm going to bank on the Mets, hopefully to avoid the sweep and
get a win today. Again, I got New York -170 a
little bit earlier today. Looks like your best number is
-178 right now at Caesars. So Philly, Detroit and the New
York Mets see if we can get 2 out of 3 eke out a winning day.
(18:43):
So that about does it for episode 331 of the All Systems
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
start first as always, by sayingthank you.
Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
busy lives, out of the dog days of summer.
I know you got a lot going on, but you guys keep tuning in,
keep grinding baseball with me, which again, it's sexy and fun
(19:06):
when football's back. But the true grinders who grind
baseball. I appreciate you guys.
There's ups and downs, but I think there's something to be
said for sticking and grinding avery long, long sport with
again, a lot of ups and downs along the way, but more ups and
downs I would say from our data-driven perspective.
But anyway, if you enjoy the pod, you want to let me know you
appreciate the insights. Would you consider giving this
(19:29):
podcast a five star review on Spotify or iTunes?
If you would like to leave a nice little note or review or
recommend the pod to a friend orclick the follow button, I would
also very much appreciate that. Next, if you enjoy the style of
betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp, contrarian betting,
focusing on not what we think orwant or biases are telling us
(19:51):
what we expect to happen, but noleaving our bias at the door,
going into every day with an open mind.
If you ask me who I like today, hey, let me look at the lines
and the splits and the systems, then I'll tell you who I like.
But I think that's one thing that is super important, not
going into a day saying you're going to do something.
And, and injecting your bias, but letting the market speak to
you, tell you where the the respected money's AT and again,
(20:14):
where the historically profitable system matches are
AT. But if this style of betting has
kind of caught your eye, it's provided A blueprint.
It's kind of allowed you to again kind of kind of see
through the forest amongst the trees.
And you want to maybe learn moreabout data-driven betting.
Well, guess what? I wrote a book, actually written
two books, believe it or not. But if you would like to go to
Amazon.com and type in the Everything Guide to Sports
(20:37):
betting, it's my first book everwrote.
It's got everything I've learnedin the industry.
It's great for brand new bettersor betters who could use a leg
up or betters who are kind of love betting but don't win too
much. But it's really providing that
data-driven blueprint. How lines are set, how and why
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
action, how to go contrarian, how to place a bet in person or
(20:57):
online, how to shop for the bestprice, how to use a live odds
page all available in the Everything Guide to Sports
Betting. Now while you're at it getting
the everything guide, stay on Amazon.com and then pre-order
the NFL sharp betting playbook. It comes out a week from
yesterday. We are so close guys, I cannot
believe it. It's literally game week.
You know, like in football, it'sit's it's you know, it's a game
(21:19):
week. It's a game week for the for the
NFL sharp betting playbook, which drops August 12th.
But if you'd like to get a leg up on your NFL handicapping, if
you'd like to support the pod, if you'd like to see what I've
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pre-order a copy of the NFL Sharp betting playbook on Amazon
and you can bring the everythingguide in the NFL Sharp betting
(21:40):
Playbook to the sports book. I'll sign them for you.
I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale and we'll sweat some games
together. Hopefully get some baseball
winners next. Have you downloaded Rhythm and
juice Real yet? My two favorite sports betting
apps, Rhythm fantastic for theirAI backed models and predictions
for game bets and player props. They got baseball live right
now, they have their new power trends with WNBA and then pretty
(22:03):
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But you'll also get those those football and basketball splits
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This pot is free. It cost you nothing, So I'm
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(22:23):
whether your tail fade, pick andchoose or just you know, you
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betting content, but it's a lot of opinion hot takes.
I always think when someone's giving me a breakdown of a game,
like are you at least going to mention what the line opened at
and where it is now? Like some of the most basic
things like just get completely ignored and they're important.
(22:46):
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If you would like to tip your podcast host, I would love for
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(23:11):
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data-driven sharp plays. Next, do you have a live odds
page? Well, if you don't, you need one
super important track line movement, identify steam shop
for the best price. Really the odds page is what
lets you track the market and watch as things are moving and
changing. So it really can provide a ton
of great insights. And really what I love too is is
(23:53):
when I'm watching a game, I havemy odds logic live odds page up
and I'll just track the live line, you know, see if there's
an opportunity to get down in game or track and see what my
preflop bet, how that looks right now.
So again, there's a lot of live odds pages out there, but you
need to give Odds Logic a shot. It's the best one around at the
cheapest rate. If you'd like to test it out,
(24:15):
there's a 7 day free trial and you can get 50% off your first
month of service by going to odds oddslogic.com/josh 123.
So that about does it for episode 331.
Early pod here with some day sweats in MLB.
See if we can get some winners. But as always, guys, I'm gonna
leave you with two final thoughts, as we do at the end of
every pod. Whether I see you at the Borgata
(24:38):
in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown in Connecticut, at the
Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino, MGM Springfield or
the Nash and Nashville, New Hampshire.
Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
down. Or Billy Walter sends his number
runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the South
Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
(24:58):
plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
When you catch a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
you're going to walk up to me and you're going to show me.
I know it was a big price, but Blue Jays came through.
Whatever you do. Cubbies, Tigers.
Come on, man, one of those two can't win that.
That's that's frustrating. But anyway, first one's on me,
next one's on you. We'll post about the book and
(25:19):
sweat some sharp data-driven place together as always, guys,
after a one and two night, 2 andone night, 3 and O night O and
three night, whether we're hot, whether we're cold, whether
we're grinding, whatever the case may be, we just got to stay
even keeled. Stick to the model, stick to the
blueprint discipline, bankroll management and just stick to
that model, which as you know bynow, if you don't, that's OK
(25:40):
too. Hello to all the new listeners.
That model goes something like this against the public, with
the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that
closing line value. If we can do that, then I'm
confident we're going to be successful sports bettors.
So have a fantastic one day Wednesday, everybody see if we
can get some winners and somedaysweats.
And then tomorrow we got baseball and then we also have
(26:02):
some NFL pre season. So stay tuned.
Might be taking some inflated dogs tomorrow.
We shall see, but good luck everyone.
I'll see you back tomorrow for episode 332 of the All Systems
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
Good luck everybody and have a great Wednesday.
Hello, and welcome to episode 331 of the All Systems Go Sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I am your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Wednesday. It's officially hump day.
That means we are halfway through our work week and also
(00:41):
it means we're just 24 hours away from some NFL preseason
action. Three games, obviously playing
tomorrow, Colts, Baltimore, Cincy, Philly and Vegas and
Seattle. And we've seen some massive line
moves on all three games. Kind of been hitting on this,
you know, the beginning of each pod throughout the week.
And I was actually able to dig up something because I was
wondering to myself, man, these lines have moved so much.
(01:04):
Is it still valuable to take theteam's getting line movement now
I'm a data-driven better. You guys know that by now.
I want to be with the line movestells me that hey, I'm with the
smart money causing the shift inthe market, but also I don't
want to chase steam. Now Steam is very important.
Steam is an overload of smart money across the marketplace,
forcing the entire market to move.
(01:25):
It typically happens when wise guys, syndicates who are groups
of wise guys together pooling their resources, just really get
down super hard on a specific side and then 'cause the whole
market to shift. Now Steam isn't just one book
moving, it's the entire marketplace.
And I've been talking to you guys about odds logic.
Odds logic is a great opportunity or great kind of,
(01:45):
you know, situation where you can identify steam because as
soon as the lines change or move, you'll, they'll get lit up
in red. And the whole point is that you
don't want to chase the steam and be too late to the party.
You want to get the steam at thesame triggering number.
So if the entire market is, you know -1 and then we start to see
it creep up -1 1/2 - 2, you wantto get a book that still hasn't
(02:07):
moved off the -1 If you're getting the triggering number
and you're with the steam, that's a great sign because
you're getting the same number. The pros like the wise guys
like. But if you're late to the party,
lot of times you can lose a bet because you're getting the worst
of the number. So for example, the three games
for tomorrow, we opened Baltimore and Indianapolis.
Basically a pick em or even Baltimore may be favored by a
(02:28):
point. It's all the way up now to Colts
-6 Philly. In Cincinnati, we open Philly, a
short 2 point favorite. Now it's -6 Cincinnati.
And then Vegas in Seattle open Seattle laying a point and a
half. Now it's all the way up to -4
1/2 Looks like it may even go tofive with Vegas.
So it's very clear that the Colts, the Bengals, and the
(02:51):
Raiders are all getting big movement in their favor.
But I ask you this, what number did the sharps like the Colts
at? You know, it was probably -1 -,
2 - 3. Do they still like a -, 6?
I'm not sure. Probably not since he opened
again, getting a point or two. Now they're laying 6.
Did pros want to lay the six? No, they got a much earlier
(03:11):
Vegas in Seattle. Seattle open laying -1 1/2.
Did pros like Vegas getting a point and 1/2?
Or maybe laying one or two maybeor probably most likely.
But do they like them laying 4 1/2 or even 5?
Maybe not. So my whole point being is I
don't want to go with the steam when we're chasing it.
And I actually went into my my historical database and I drew
(03:32):
this up. I went to pre season games.
And 1 angle that we've seen historically is that actually
dogs do better in the pre seasonthan favorites.
This is a pretty big sample sizeif you look all the way back,
and this is huge all the way back since around 2005 S, nearly
a 20 year sample of preseason games.
Dogs are 625 and 562 atsa 52.7% cover rate.
(03:58):
That's actually good for plus 34units, a 3% ROI.
So it goes to show you and again, what's the magic number
to overcome -110 juice. It's 52.38, so 52.7%.
You could round it up to 53. That's actually pretty good
taking the dogs. But here's where it gets even
better. When I go to my database and I
look at line movement in specifically, and I look at the
(04:19):
spread change open to current. What I was looking at is let's
say you're a dog and the line ismoved at least two points
against you. So basically you're getting more
points off the opener then then or you're getting more points
now then you got off the opener.Well, dogs in that spot improved
to 53.1% with a 4% ROI. Let's make it even bigger.
(04:42):
If we go to a team getting a doggetting five points or more
again, cuz he's all match, they improved to or sorry, five
points or more off the opener. They're now 30 and 2159 percent,
14% ROI. And that would match with all
four of those are all three of those dogs, I should say.
(05:02):
So I'm thinking maybe we take some of these dogs for tomorrow.
The Lions have moved so much andcrazy things happen in the
second-half of these games. And the other angle here is all
these totals are pretty low, 36 and half 37 and half 37.
So it's not like they're expecting a ton of points.
So it's kind of hard to cover a big number like that when you're
looking at a lower scoring game.So I just wanted to mention that
(05:24):
I'm going to do a little bit more digging into these games
here. But dogs have done well in the
preseason. These numbers have moved a ton
and what I would call inflated line dogs getting five points or
more, they're covering nearly 60% of the time historically.
And if you look at actually the past system results, they are
123-4567 and O the last 7. And you actually had last year
(05:46):
there were let's see, 12345 yeah, basically 7 situations
that all came through. So just a little little sports
betting nugget there. But again, big movement.
I'm thinking of maybe buying lowand let's let's think if we can
get greedy, Can we get Baltimoreplus 6 1/2?
Can we get Philly plus 6 1/2? Can we get Seattle +5?
Again? That's really what I'm thinking
(06:07):
as of now. So with that being said, I want
to know kind of turn the page totoday.
We do have a three pack of MLB sweats for you.
Big jam packed Wednesday edition, 15 games overall and
three caught my eye with some big steam.
And we're going to see if we canget this pot out a little bit
early because all three of the games that I'm on are a 12:35 PM
(06:28):
Eastern Time game and two 1:10 PM Eastern Time games.
So let's see if we can get this out and let you guys listen to
the breakdowns and decide if youwant a tail fade pick and choose
whatever you want to do. Of course, we're going to try to
go 2 and 1 eek out a winning day, which is always our goal.
Now, looking back toward last night, kind of an annoying 1 and
2 -, 1.57 unit night. Didn't have a big winner with
(06:50):
the Blue Jays. Remember that was a massive
steam move in their favor. Actually got down early and came
back and rolled, which was nice.And actually it kind of looked
like a blowout, but it was kind of closer than that.
What do they win like 10 to 4? The losers were the Cubs lost 5
to one. That was a one, one to one game.
I think in the 7th inning they bring in Andrew Kittridge, guy
with a big beard. He's actually been pretty good
(07:10):
historically. He gets completely lit up and
implodes and gives up five runs or four runs, whatever it was.
And then the Tigers let us down early.
I knew we were kind of on the bad side of that because right
as the game was, or I was looking up the lineups, I saw
Glaber Torres was scratched, which was never a good thing.
And then Chris Paddock also got lit up.
So Tigers, Cubs letting us down.At least we got the Blue Jays.
(07:34):
We're going to see if we can start a new winning streak here
for today. So that being said, let's dive
right in. Three plays again, trying to go
2 and 1, eke out a winning day. First one on the board for me.
Early match up. As I mentioned, Baltimore
Orioles at the Philadelphia Phillies.
Let's set the stage. Talk line movement, talk splits
and systems. I'll give you my play for this
one. So going into it, going into it,
(07:55):
we got the Phillies 65 and 48 onthe year.
They won the first two games of this interleague series,
dominating the opener 13 to 3, coming through as a -, 200 home
favorite. Then they won again yesterday, 5
nothing as a -145 home favorite.So in this early afternoon
series finale, the O's who are 51 and 63, they're going to go
(08:15):
with the lefty Trevor Rogers four and two 1.44 ERA.
Meanwhile, the Phils are going to go with the fellow lefty
Ranger Suarez, 8 and four, 2.68 ERA.
Now, what have we seen across the opener here?
Well, this game opened Philly around a -, 150 home favorite,
Baltimore A + 130 row dog. And pros aren't thinking, you
(08:36):
know, the Orioles, hey, they've lost first two.
They'll avoid the sweep. No, they're getting down hard on
Philly to complete this sweep. We've seen Philly creep up -150
up to around -180 I jumped on Philly at -175 at Bet MGM.
Again, shop around. Some books are -180 even
Caesar's I think is -190 So always have multiple outs and
(08:56):
get that best price. But pretty clear we got one way
movement in favor of Philly at circa 84% of money line bets.
99% of money line dollars are coming in on the fills.
So very obvious one way sharp bet split out in Vegas in favor
of the fills. Then I have 6 system matches lit
up on Philadelphia here. Just a couple of them favorites
(09:19):
off a win with a winning record,getting at least $0.05 of line
movement against a team who madethe playoffs the previous year.
That system is 135 and 6269% with a 7% ROI this year.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season
playing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous
season. Kind of.
And again, Baltimore's a little different because they had a
(09:40):
great year last year and they'vefallen off this year.
But kind of goes to show you that kind of better team at home
who's expected to win kind of the cream rises to the top.
Those teams have gone 105 and 6263% with a 6% ROI.
Phillies by the way, 37 and 13, a 74% win rate, 14% ROI as a
home favorite with a line move in their direction that actually
(10:03):
makes them the second best team in baseball as a home favorite
with a line move. We do have Philly interleague
favorite, lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the
better team. We also have Philly as a
correlative betting value favorite.
This is a very low total of 7 1/2 and this line has crept up
further toward Philly. So fewer amount of expected run
scored, more likely to come fromquote UN quote that better team.
(10:26):
I'm going to bank on the Phills bats hopefully getting to
Rodgers. They picked him up in a trade
last year and he was terrible. He's been better this year.
But Phillies are actually hitting on the season 255.
They've scored 534 runs. Orioles are only hitting 242
with 492 run scored. Also, two lefties on the bump.
Philly's been better against lefties.
(10:47):
They're hitting 2:50. That's ninth best in baseball.
Baltimore's hitting 2/27. That ranks 23rd.
Lastly, just some home Rd. splits.
Philly's been good at home 37 and 20.
Orioles only 24 and 36 on the road.
So it's an early game, but we got a lot of system matches.
Line keep steaming toward the Phills.
I'm going to back Ranger Suarez and see if the Phills can
(11:09):
hopefully complete this sweep. I got Philadelphia -175 at bet
MGM again, shop around. Most books -180 at this point.
Next one for you. 1:10 PM Eastern Time.
First pitch, Let's get some revenge in Detroit.
One of my favorite movies. Detroit Rock City, Old movie if
you've never seen it. If you're a KISS fan or never
(11:31):
looking for a movie to watch. One of my faves anyway.
First pitch 1:10 PM Eastern TimeTwins at Tigers.
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Tigers who are 66 and 49, they won the opener six to
three. Remember we played them that
night came through as a -185 home favorite.
Then unfortunately the Twins were 53 and 60.
(11:51):
Came back with a six to three win yesterday cashing as a + 120
Rd. dog in this afternoon seriesfinale.
Twins are going to go with the ready Pearson Ole O and two 7.5
O ERA tigers going with the ready Jack Flaherty 6 and ten
4.36 ERA and Pearson Ole just kind of funny.
My my favorite comedian is Nate Bargatzi.
(12:12):
If you've never seen this guy, he is freaking hilarious, but
he's got this. He has this great skit
basically, I think it was one ofhis recent Netflix specials
where he's like they know he's from the South and he makes fun
of himself. He's like they never taught us
like how to pronounce words and and I I look at instead of oil
OIL, he calls it Motorol and it's just it's a hilarious skip,
(12:33):
but it always when I see PearsonOL it reminds me of the Nate
Bargatze Motorol. Anyway, side note, but we did
open this game. Detroit as low as a -, 130 home
favorite. The twins, a + 110 row dog.
And at the time we didn't know who the twin starter would be.
It was Mr. TBD, Mr. Unannounced.Once it was announced that OL
(12:54):
would start and he's only going on three days rest.
That was when we saw a huge adjustment toward the tigers
-130 up to -170 and now we've seen the tigers get now as high
as -200 You can still get -190 abet MGM.
I got tigers -185 a little bit earlier today.
If you look at the splits at DraftKings, Tigers, 85% of money
(13:15):
line bets, 95% of money line dollars.
At Circa, 79% of money line bets, 99% of money line dollars.
So both DraftKings and Circa with some pretty good low bets,
higher dollar splits in favor ofDetroit along with that huge
move in their favor. If we isolate the Tigers in the
spot, they're 381967 percent, 7 percent, 7% ROI as a home
(13:40):
favorite with a line move in their direction.
That's the 4th best in baseball.And Detroit is also 18 and 675
percent, 15% ROI as a home favorite against a sub 500 team.
So they've cleaned up as a home favorite when the markets moving
in their direction and they've cleaned up as a home favorite
against bad teams, which hopefully that continues here
today. Tigers have the better offense.
(14:02):
Let's let's light up Mr. Motorolhitting two 5000 and 47 home
runs, 552 runs scored. Twins, meanwhile, hitting two
41131 homers, 471 runs scored. Jack Flaherty's numbers on the
year don't look amazing. Six and ten 4.36 ER 8, But he's
pitched really well recently. Hopefully that's an omen for
(14:23):
today. He's only given up 1 earned run
in his last two starts spanning 12 innings, and he's three and
one with a 2.76 ERA in day games.
He's done very well in day games.
Meanwhile, Mr. Ole is only making his third career
appearance and he's giving up five runs in six innings in his
first 22 appearances. And I was also reading because
(14:44):
he's on short rest he may not gofar in this game.
So it could be even a bullpen game and Minnesota traded away a
lot of their bullpen guys. Lastly, just look at home Rd.
Twins 23 and 26 on the road, Tigers 37 and 22 at home.
One of the better home teams in baseball.
So we've had nothing but movement toward Detroit.
Again, if you wanted to sign up and get those all systems go
(15:06):
best bets from the Juicer Lab, you would have gotten some
better prices here. Tigers -185 that's what I'm
rocking. But again, it looks like -190
still available at Bet MGM, but shop around cuz some books are
closer to -200 last bet of the day.
Again, we got a lot of day sweats today.
Let's go to New York, the Big Apple, where the New York Mets
(15:27):
are hosting the Cleveland Guardians at 1:10 PM Eastern
Time. Going into it, we got the guards
58 and 55. They won the first two games of
this three-game set. They won the opener 7 to 6 and
extras as a + 165 Rd. dog. And then one again yesterday,
3:00 to 2:00 as a + 135 Rd. dog.So pitching matchup for this
interleague series finale, the guards are going with the ready
(15:49):
Gavin Williams. He's six and four with a 3.33 ER
a Meanwhile, the Mets, who are 63 and 51, they're going to go
with the lefty David Peterson. He's seven and four with a 2.83
ER a. So we seen across the market
here. Well, this game opened Mets
around a -, 165 home favorite, Cleveland around a + 150 row dog
(16:11):
and sharps are really banking onthe Mets to avoid the sweep
because we've seen this line go further toward New York.
I got a -, 170, but they've beenbet up -165 now up to around
-180 looks like Caesars is your best price if you want to play
the Mets with me. They're -178 but most other
books are -180 even -185 S good steam in favor of New York.
(16:33):
At DraftKings, the Mets 74% of bets, 81% of dollars.
At Circa, this one really jumpedout to me. 53% of money line
bets, 97% of money line dollars.So big money out in Vegas laying
with the Mets to get back on track. 1 system that jumped out
to me. Home favorites.
This was the one that I think also matched with who was it
(16:55):
with Phillies earlier today, Butthat would be your home
favorites who made the playoffs the previous year, playing
opponent who also made the playoffs the previous year.
One O 5 and 6263 percent, 6% ROI.
The Mets are also 34 and 16, a 68% win rate, 8% ROI as a home
favorite. That makes them the 5th best
(17:16):
home favorite in baseball. New York does have that
correlative betting value. Total in this game is very low,
7 1/2 and the line keeps going toward the favorite.
So if your amount of expected run scored more likely to come
from quote UN quote, that betterteam interleague favorite value
as well. That lack of familiarity
benefiting the better team. And then also the Mets,
hopefully their bats show up today and get to Williams.
(17:36):
They're hitting 241 on the year,139 homers, 500 run scored.
Guardians, meanwhile, hitting two 29118 homers, 446 runs
scored. Peterson has been really good at
home 5 and O with an ERA of justtwo, and he's only given up 1
earned run or less in four of his last five starts.
Meanwhile, Williams been good athome, 2.77 ERA, but on the road
(18:00):
4 point O3. So he's on the road here today.
And meanwhile, the Guardians going up against Peterson, a
lefty, they're only hitting 227 against S paws this year.
That's 22nd baseball. And by the way, the Mets are 38
and 20 at home, 66% win rate, second best home team in all of
baseball. So we've got some big movement
toward the Mets. Really good bet splits, good
(18:22):
system matches. Peterson's been great at home.
I'm going to bank on the Mets, hopefully to avoid the sweep and
get a win today. Again, I got New York -170 a
little bit earlier today. Looks like your best number is
-178 right now at Caesars. So Philly, Detroit and the New
York Mets see if we can get 2 out of 3 eke out a winning day.
(18:43):
So that about does it for episode 331 of the All Systems
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
start first as always, by sayingthank you.
Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
busy lives, out of the dog days of summer.
I know you got a lot going on, but you guys keep tuning in,
keep grinding baseball with me, which again, it's sexy and fun
(19:06):
when football's back. But the true grinders who grind
baseball. I appreciate you guys.
There's ups and downs, but I think there's something to be
said for sticking and grinding avery long, long sport with
again, a lot of ups and downs along the way, but more ups and
downs I would say from our data-driven perspective.
But anyway, if you enjoy the pod, you want to let me know you
appreciate the insights. Would you consider giving this
(19:29):
podcast a five star review on Spotify or iTunes?
If you would like to leave a nice little note or review or
recommend the pod to a friend orclick the follow button, I would
also very much appreciate that. Next, if you enjoy the style of
betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp, contrarian betting,
focusing on not what we think orwant or biases are telling us
(19:51):
what we expect to happen, but noleaving our bias at the door,
going into every day with an open mind.
If you ask me who I like today, hey, let me look at the lines
and the splits and the systems, then I'll tell you who I like.
But I think that's one thing that is super important, not
going into a day saying you're going to do something.
And, and injecting your bias, but letting the market speak to
you, tell you where the the respected money's AT and again,
(20:14):
where the historically profitable system matches are
AT. But if this style of betting has
kind of caught your eye, it's provided A blueprint.
It's kind of allowed you to again kind of kind of see
through the forest amongst the trees.
And you want to maybe learn moreabout data-driven betting.
Well, guess what? I wrote a book, actually written
two books, believe it or not. But if you would like to go to
Amazon.com and type in the Everything Guide to Sports
(20:37):
betting, it's my first book everwrote.
It's got everything I've learnedin the industry.
It's great for brand new bettersor betters who could use a leg
up or betters who are kind of love betting but don't win too
much. But it's really providing that
data-driven blueprint. How lines are set, how and why
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
action, how to go contrarian, how to place a bet in person or
(20:57):
online, how to shop for the bestprice, how to use a live odds
page all available in the Everything Guide to Sports
Betting. Now while you're at it getting
the everything guide, stay on Amazon.com and then pre-order
the NFL sharp betting playbook. It comes out a week from
yesterday. We are so close guys, I cannot
believe it. It's literally game week.
You know, like in football, it'sit's it's you know, it's a game
(21:19):
week. It's a game week for the for the
NFL sharp betting playbook, which drops August 12th.
But if you'd like to get a leg up on your NFL handicapping, if
you'd like to support the pod, if you'd like to see what I've
been working on for the last three plus years, you can
pre-order a copy of the NFL Sharp betting playbook on Amazon
and you can bring the everythingguide in the NFL Sharp betting
(21:40):
Playbook to the sports book. I'll sign them for you.
I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale and we'll sweat some games
together. Hopefully get some baseball
winners next. Have you downloaded Rhythm and
juice Real yet? My two favorite sports betting
apps, Rhythm fantastic for theirAI backed models and predictions
for game bets and player props. They got baseball live right
now, they have their new power trends with WNBA and then pretty
(22:03):
soon we'll have an announcement because we got something planned
for rhythm this football season.So stay tuned for that.
But you'll also get those those football and basketball splits
or system matches, I should say models once those sports return
and then also you got to download juice reel.
This pot is free. It cost you nothing, So I'm
going to pass the hat. If you enjoy the insights,
(22:23):
whether your tail fade, pick andchoose or just you know, you
kind of like to hear where wherethe market's moving and you
enjoy the breakdowns, because I really don't think there's a pod
like this around. I know there's a lot of sports
betting content, but it's a lot of opinion hot takes.
I always think when someone's giving me a breakdown of a game,
like are you at least going to mention what the line opened at
and where it is now? Like some of the most basic
things like just get completely ignored and they're important.
(22:46):
But if you enjoy these insights and again, this pod is free.
If you would like to tip your podcast host, I would love for
you guys to sign up for $4.99 a week to get the all systems go
best bet picks on the Juice Reelapp.
You can click that link I put out late afternoon each day.
You can also just download juicereel, click buy sell bottom
right corner search by and you can look up ASG under score
(23:11):
podcast and again, that's 5 bucks a week.
So hopefully you think the insights are worth $0.99 a day.
Basically, you also get the RoboJackson best bet picks, the
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card of your action. It's all available when you
download Juice Reel. So download Juice Reel and
download rhythm. It'll be off and running making
(23:32):
data-driven sharp plays. Next, do you have a live odds
page? Well, if you don't, you need one
super important track line movement, identify steam shop
for the best price. Really the odds page is what
lets you track the market and watch as things are moving and
changing. So it really can provide a ton
of great insights. And really what I love too is is
(23:53):
when I'm watching a game, I havemy odds logic live odds page up
and I'll just track the live line, you know, see if there's
an opportunity to get down in game or track and see what my
preflop bet, how that looks right now.
So again, there's a lot of live odds pages out there, but you
need to give Odds Logic a shot. It's the best one around at the
cheapest rate. If you'd like to test it out,
(24:15):
there's a 7 day free trial and you can get 50% off your first
month of service by going to odds oddslogic.com/josh 123.
So that about does it for episode 331.
Early pod here with some day sweats in MLB.
See if we can get some winners. But as always, guys, I'm gonna
leave you with two final thoughts, as we do at the end of
every pod. Whether I see you at the Borgata
(24:38):
in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown in Connecticut, at the
Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino, MGM Springfield or
the Nash and Nashville, New Hampshire.
Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
down. Or Billy Walter sends his number
runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the South
Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
(24:58):
plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
When you catch a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
you're going to walk up to me and you're going to show me.
I know it was a big price, but Blue Jays came through.
Whatever you do. Cubbies, Tigers.
Come on, man, one of those two can't win that.
That's that's frustrating. But anyway, first one's on me,
next one's on you. We'll post about the book and
(25:19):
sweat some sharp data-driven place together as always, guys,
after a one and two night, 2 andone night, 3 and O night O and
three night, whether we're hot, whether we're cold, whether
we're grinding, whatever the case may be, we just got to stay
even keeled. Stick to the model, stick to the
blueprint discipline, bankroll management and just stick to
that model, which as you know bynow, if you don't, that's OK
(25:40):
too. Hello to all the new listeners.
That model goes something like this against the public, with
the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that
closing line value. If we can do that, then I'm
confident we're going to be successful sports bettors.
So have a fantastic one day Wednesday, everybody see if we
can get some winners and somedaysweats.
And then tomorrow we got baseball and then we also have
(26:02):
some NFL pre season. So stay tuned.
Might be taking some inflated dogs tomorrow.
We shall see, but good luck everyone.
I'll see you back tomorrow for episode 332 of the All Systems
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
Good luck everybody and have a great Wednesday.
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New Heights with Jason & Travis Kelce
Football’s funniest family duo — Jason Kelce of the Philadelphia Eagles and Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs — team up to provide next-level access to life in the league as it unfolds. The two brothers and Super Bowl champions drop weekly insights about the weekly slate of games and share their INSIDE perspectives on trending NFL news and sports headlines. They also endlessly rag on each other as brothers do, chat the latest in pop culture and welcome some very popular and well-known friends to chat with them. Check out new episodes every Wednesday. Follow New Heights on the Wondery App, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. You can listen to new episodes early and ad-free, and get exclusive content on Wondery+. Join Wondery+ in the Wondery App, Apple Podcasts or Spotify. And join our new membership for a unique fan experience by going to the New Heights YouTube channel now!