August 12, 2025 • 25 mins
In Episode 334, Josh dishes out a 3-pack of MLB plays for Tuesday night.
Josh's new book "The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook" is out TODAY!
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:19):
Hello, and welcome to episode 334 of the All Systems Go sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena,
guys. But it's not like any other day.
(00:41):
It is a very special day. It is Christmas morning.
It is your birthday. It is whatever your favorite day
of the year is. It's my favorite day of the year
because today is the day that mysecond book went live, the NFL
Sharp Betting Playbook. How to analyze the market, go
contrarian and bet like a data-driven wise guy.
I've been telling you guys August 12th, 2025 was the
(01:03):
release date and wouldn't you know it, August 12th happens to
be today. So it's been a long time coming.
I've been working on this book for over three years at this
point and today is the day we get to celebrate because it is
officially available to purchase.
Well, you could have pre-orderedit and I want to thank everyone
who did pre-order a copy on Amazon, but you can pick it up
Amazon.com. It can now be delivered to your
(01:24):
house. I've been seeing a lot of
screenshots of people who had pre-ordered it.
And you get that little tracker on Amazon that says like, you
know, delivery or in progress or, you know, you can track it
and see, hey, you know, someone's going to drop it at
your front porch today. So it's such an exciting day,
such a rewarding day, and it's really just kind of an amazing
day. So today's the day the NFL Sharp
(01:45):
Betting Playbook is good to go. It's available and wouldn't you
know it, I popped open the listing on Amazon.com and guess
what, we are the number one bestseller, not just the number one
new release, but the number one best seller in sports gambling
books on Amazon.com. So that is pretty amazing and
really goes to show that we've kind of built this data-driven
(02:07):
community. Again, sports betting is
exploding and kind of what I talk about in the book is that
everyone is, you know, most not everyone, but I think we're up
to like 40 states that are legalized and a couple others,
you know, coming up here. And we still haven't even got to
California or Texas or fully available in Florida.
But people want to bet on sports.
They want to do it legally, but they don't know how to do it.
(02:28):
And the whole point of the NFL Sharp Betting playbook was to
teach not, I'm not going to say the only approach to sports
betting, but the approach that Ihave become a quote UN quote
expert in. I guess you can call me an
expert, although it feels weird to call yourself an expert, but
kind of the philosophy that I was taught that I've learned,
that I've refined and that I tryto preach everyday on the all
systems Go pod. Again, approaching the sports
(02:50):
betting market with a blueprint and kind of a overarching
philosophy and a north star of tracking the betting market,
trying to figure out which direction the line's moving,
trying to be on the sharp side, trying to go contrarian.
It's this style of betting that I feel like is really
underserved and really, if you can just, you know, just get
attached to a few different tipsand strategies, you know you're
(03:11):
going to become a more profitable better by betting
with your head and not your heart.
And that's the whole point of the NFL sharp betting playbook,
to teach betters, whether you'rebrand new or maybe you bet
football for quite a while, but you threw darts, you bet based
on who looked good last week andyou know, you bet your favorite
teams, you parlay everything. Well, this book now provides an
approach to data-driven sports betting.
And again, I really don't see any other books like this across
(03:34):
the market. So the fact that we've really
broken some records for pre sales and it's available today
and we're already #1 in the Amazon sports gambling list,
that really makes me very excited and very happy.
So if you want to pick up a copy, you can now order it on
Amazon. You can also go to your local
Barnes and Noble or bookstore and pick it up.
But either way, guys, we are live.
(03:55):
It's here, It's beautiful. What's the Seinfeld quote?
They're real and they're spectacular.
Well, this book is real and it'sspectacular and I really don't
owe it all to you guys. So I want to thank everyone who
has purchased it. I want to thank everyone who's
thinking about buying it. And now what I'm going to do is
plead for some five star reviewson Amazon.
If you enjoy the book, you read it and you think, hey, man, this
(04:18):
is pretty well written, gave me some tips I didn't always know
about. If you want to support the team,
I would love for you guys to buyit on Amazon.
It's a it'll be a verified purchase and then leave a five
star review and a little blurb. Hey, I really enjoyed the
section on avoiding parlays or Inever really knew how to bet
teasers. I like this section or I really
I had no, you know, bankroll management.
I enjoyed, you know, chapter 3. But if you'd like to buy the
(04:40):
book, give it a five star review.
Really, that's kind of how Amazon really ranks these books
based on not just people buying it, but you want five star
reviews and some good comments so other people can can see that
there's some value there. So it is available paperback.
It's also available with audiobook.
A lot of people were asking my first book, the the everything
guide to sports betting. They're asking for an audio
(05:02):
book. Well, guess what?
The audio book is available out for purchase if you're if you
want to like my guy Willie Tomlinson, He said, hey, I
bought the the paperback, but maybe I'll get the audiobook.
So when I walk my dog, I can just put in my headphones and
listen as well. So I want to thank Willie and
the whole crew, everybody, seriously, this is kind of a
it's like graduation day. I don't know what you want to
call it, but again, I'm just kind of standing on the
shoulders of giants and you know, it's it's great to see
(05:25):
this thing go Live Today. So I'm very, very proud of it.
So go buy the NFL sharp betting playbook now.
I buried the lead because I don't know what's going on in
the universe, but we're a littlebit hot right now because last
night we swept the board in Baseball 3 and O + 2.43 units
had to go through a rain delay, but luckily didn't stop us with
the Tigers. Spencer Torkelson hit a huge
(05:47):
home run in the ninth to win 2 to one.
Yankees came through. They've been terrible, but they
their bats came alive and they got a win for us.
And then also the Padres. And a lot of people were saying,
man, you're taking Darvish over web.
It's like, no, web's obviously the better picture.
But what was the market telling us?
We saw that 5050 line move toward the Padres and the Padres
came through with the winner. So after a nice little sweep,
(06:08):
busting out the brooms, book release day, let's see if we can
keep it going and eke out another winning day for today on
the MLB diamond. So that being said, guys,
another three pack for you on book release day.
Let's try to go 2 and one and again, turn a small profit
because I do have a chapter in the book called Realistic
Expectations. Know what you're up against,
sorry, know what? You know, what you're getting
(06:29):
into and knowing what you're up against and realistic
expectations is not, hey, 3 bets, let's go three.
And Oh no, it's try to go 2 and one each got a winning day
because I think that's important.
But anyway, 3 pack overall, first one on the board for me.
Let's look at an early matchup. This is the Seattle Mariners
visiting the Baltimore Orioles early, 6:35 PM Eastern Time,
first pitch. So setting the stage here, the
(06:51):
Mariners are 66 and 53. They've won seven straight.
They're red hot. They just swept the Rays.
They won that series finale 6 to3 as a -180 home favorite.
Meanwhile, the OS 53 and 65 justdropped two or three against the
A's. They lost that series finale 3
to 2 as a -125 home favorite. So pitch a match up for the
opener. Here we have the M's going with
(07:12):
the ready George Kirby. He's seven and five with a four
point O 4 ERA. Meanwhile, the O's are going to
go with the fellow righty Dean Kramer.
He's 8:00 and 8:00 with a 4.35 ERA.
What do we see across the markethere?
Well, this game opened Mariners listed around a -, 140 -, 145
Rd. favorite. The Orioles around a + 120 + 125
Rd. dog. And we've seen nothing but
(07:34):
movement in favor of the O's because the Orioles, we've
gotten steamed up -145 now up toaround -160 -, 165.
Some shops reached as high as -175 even -180 that's when you
saw a little bit of buy back dropping this line back down to
around -165 in favor of Seattle.But either way, from open to
current, it's been all Seattle money.
(07:55):
Now, aside from the line move toward the Mariners, pretty good
bet splits on the Ms. If you look at DraftKings, around 70%
of bets, but nearly 80% of dollars are going with Seattle.
So kind of a pro and Joe split here where Publix probably just
saying, hey, Seattle made a bunch of good moves at the
deadline. They're red hot, just play them.
Whereas wise guys are saying thevalue of the number is the most
(08:16):
important thing because again, maybe their internal numbers had
this close to a -, 165 game to begin with.
So when they opened, you know, as low as you know -140 -, 145
that presented an edge or an actionable advantage over the
book. Aside from the splits in the
line move, we do have some good system matches on Seattle
favorites coming off a day off, getting at least $0.05 of line
(08:37):
movement. The Mariners are matching this
spot here, 87 and 3969% with a 9% ROI this year.
If they're also coming off a win.
So your favorite off a day off, off a win and getting line
movement. They improved to 53 and 2172%
with a 13% ROI. All the Mariners do have some
(08:57):
betting system value as a non division favorite.
So the lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the
better team and going to bank onthe Mariners offense hopefully
playing well today. You always wonder Cal Raleigh,
will he be in or out of the lineup?
Guys been incredible. But he is a catcher and he's
coming off a day off and he actually DH on Sunday.
So he should be good to go. And you got a pretty incredible
line up there with man, who is it, a Rose Arena, Raleigh, Julio
(09:20):
Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor.
Even got a guy like Polanco hitting like 6 or 7th.
But anyway, on the year, they'vehit 171 home runs.
They scored 547 runs. Orioles have hit 144 homers,
scored 505 runs. We also get Kirby in particular.
Seattle is 9 and two and Kirby'slast 11 starts and he's giving
(09:44):
up two earned runs or less in nine of his last 12 starts.
Meanwhile, Kramer, who's going for Baltimore, he's giving up
three earned runs or more in three straight starts.
We also look at just these teamsin recent performance.
Mariners are 9 and one over their last 10.
They're hitting 231 with a 2.917ERA.
(10:04):
The OS, meanwhile, 3 and seven over their last ten, hitting
only $1.86 with a 4.81 ERA. So we got a line move toward the
Mariners. We have a great system, match
favorite off a day off, off a win with a line move, better
offense, hopefully the better pitcher on the bump.
I'm laying it here with Seattle.Shop around.
Looks like the best number on Seattle's around -160 But again,
(10:26):
some books as high as -170 even -175 across the board.
So let's go EMS next one on the board. 7:40 PM Eastern Time, the
Pittsburgh Pirates visiting the Milwaukee beer makers now coming
into it. The Brewers, me and this team
just cannot lose their 74 and 4430 games above 500.
They're on a 10 game-winning streak.
(10:47):
They won last night's series opener. 7:00 to 1:00 coming
through as a - 190 home favorite.
Now pitching match up here for tonight, the pirates, who are 51
and 69. They're going with their ace
Paul Skeens 7 and eight with a 1.94 ERA.
On the other hand, we're going to go with the Brewers righty
Freddie Peralta, who's 13 and five with a three-point O3 team
(11:08):
ERA. Now, what are we seeing across
the market here? Will this game open Milwaukee, a
very short -115 home favorite Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh round and
even money or -1 O 5 Rd. Dog and sharps are saying we
know skins is great, but the Brewers are red hot.
They're at home and they're laying a very short price and
wise guys are laying it with Milwaukee because we've seen
(11:29):
Milwaukee again, who was 110 straight and there's some insane
record where I think they're like 49 and 16 over their last
like 65 games or something. But Milwaukee has gotten steamed
up -115 up to -125 and some shops are even as high as -130
So it's notable that even thoughSkeens is a dog, the lines going
(11:51):
further toward Milwaukee or against Skeens now, the brew
crew at DraftKings. 68% of moneyline bets, 75% of money line
dollars. So good low bets, higher dollar
pro and Joe split. I do have one system match I
really like, or there's actuallyquite a few on Milwaukee
tonight. But one that really jumped out
to me is that if you're a short home favorite -140 or less and
(12:13):
you're off a win, but also receiving line movement in your
direction, those teams have beenreally, really good this year on
the season. Those teams are, let me find it
for you, 51 and 3261 percent, 11% ROI since July 1st.
Brewers are also in the spot, highly profitable.
When they are a favorite, they're 42 and 1969 percent, 15%
(12:37):
ROI. That makes them the best chalk
team in baseball when they're favored and getting line
movement in their direction. Milwaukee is 30 and 1271% of the
17% ROI. So a match for tonight being a
chalk favorite and a favorite with a line move.
The Brewers also have some correlative betting is a very
low total and open at 7:00. It's down to 6 1/2 and we've
(12:57):
seen historically favorite low totals have been a good
combination because the fewer amount of expected run scored
more likely to come from quote UN quote, the better team.
Milwaukee does have the better bats.
They're hitting 257 on the year.They've hit 122 home runs and
scored 594 runs. And on the flip side, the
Pirates are only hitting 232 on the year with 84 homers and 427
(13:20):
runs scored. Peralta, I mean, first with
skeins, again, the guy's incredible.
So you're, there's a lot of numbers that'll say skeins is
great, which he is. But are we under selling Freddy
Peralta? He's 7 and one with a 2.13 ERA
at home this year. Lastly, the Brew Crew are 40 and
20 at home this year. Meanwhile, the Pirates are just
(13:42):
17 and 40 on the road, one of the worst Rd. teams in baseball.
So we got a line move toward Milwaukee.
Even though Skeens is great, market is fading.
Skeens good system matches favorite low total.
And oh, by the way, I popped open the Juice Reel app, noticed
a 19% pretty big, 19% sharp mushedge in favor of the beer
(14:03):
makers. So that it all up here guys.
Again, the Brewers are red hot alot of times.
They're -170 -, 200 pretty decent price here to back
Milwaukee and the market is moving in their favor.
So I'm on the Brew Crew. I got him at -125 at Bet MGM.
Shop around some books now closer to her.
Most books, closer to -130 last bed of the night, another late
(14:24):
night sweat. Let's go right back to San Fran.
Mccovey Cove. It's always been a dream of
mine, me and my dad one day to go to San Fran and see a Red Sox
Giants game because I've heard how great this stadium is.
But anyway, Giants hosting the San Diego Padres 9:45 PM Eastern
Time tonight, setting the stage here.
The Padres, who are 67 and 52, had a huge win for us last
(14:46):
night. 4 to one came through as a + 110 row dog rematch here
tonight. We got a couple lefties on the
bump. The Padres are starting Nestor
Cortez, who they picked up in a trade at the deadline.
He's one and one with a 7.11 ERA.
Giants meanwhile, going with thefellow southpaw Robbie Ray, he's
nine and five with a 2.85 ERA. So what we've seen across the
(15:07):
market here, well, San Fran opened around a -, 135 home
favorite. The Padres are on a + 115 row
dog and the public is slightly leaning San Fran better pitcher
on the bump, at least on paper in a relatively modest price.
And again, Giants are at home. They lost last night.
They got a bounce back and win tonight.
However, even though you're getting 54% of money line bets
(15:29):
coming in on than San Fran, the line hasn't moved further toward
San Francisco. It hasn't gone up in favor of
the Giants. It's gone the other way.
It's falling away from San Fran toward San Diego.
San Fran has fallen from -135 down to -120 some shops even
down to -115. Conversely, the pods have gone
from plus 115 down to around plus 100, and some shops even
(15:52):
now like -1 O 2 - 1 O 5. So that tells me we got smart
money taking the dads once again.
I'm going dads two nights in a row circa Padres. 40% of bets,
60% of dollars. So good low bets, higher dollar
split tell us the bigger sharperwagers are also leaning.
Padres here. San Diego does have a betting
(16:13):
system match as a divisional dog.
So built in familiarity, leveling the playing field,
leading to more upsets and benefiting the team getting plus
money. If we dig a little deeper into
the pods as a dog, and again, they came through last night,
same sort of thing, dog line move, but they're 28 and 26 as a
dog this year, 52 percent, 16% ROI.
(16:35):
That makes them the sixth most profitable dog in baseball.
Dads are also 41 and 2760 percent, 7% ROI against teams
with a 500 record or below. So they pretty much cleaned up
on quote UN quote mediocre or bad teams.
Also, we have two lefties on thebump.
So anytime I see two lefties, and I do this with every match
(16:56):
up. Lefty righty.
But how do these teams hit lefties?
Well, San Diego is 11th best batting average in baseball
against lefties. They're hitting 247.
Conversely, the Giants are only hitting 211 against southpaws.
That's 30th in baseball. And guess how many teams are in
MLB? 30 teams.
That means they are dead last batting average against lefties.
(17:17):
I mentioned this yesterday, but it applies again for tonight.
Giants 7 and 15 since the All Star break, 18 and 29 since
acquiring Rafael Devers. Devers did hit a home run last
night, but still Red Sox look like they've it's not like
looking like it's true. They've had a good record since
trading away Devers and it's been the opposite for San Fran.
(17:38):
And then also, by the way, theseteams have played seven times
this year. Divisional opponents Padres are
five and two. So I think the obvious thought
would be, hey, Ray's better thanCortez.
San Fran's got to bounce back and win.
But let's stay true to the market, which we always try to
do. Publix leaning San Fran with a
sign of continuing to fall toward the fathers.
So I'm jumping on the fathers here, guys.
(17:59):
I got him at +100. I believe that's FanDuel still
offering plus 100. But shop around.
Some books are even now. Minus one O 2 -. 1 O 5 toward
the dads. So 3 pack today.
The Mariners, the Brewers, the Padres, when we find a way to
get 2 out of 3 eek out a winningday, that of course is always
the goal. So that about does it for
(18:20):
episode 334 of the All systems Go sports Betting podcast on
book release day. I'm seriously, guys, it's like
it's crazy. I don't know, I just got some
some great energy today. I'll see you in the book go live
and I can't wait for you guys tocheck it out and read it.
And timing. There's a reason why we picked
early August for this thing to drop so you have enough time to
get ready for the NFL season. But anyway, guys, this is the
(18:43):
part of the pod where we wrap things up.
So I want to start first by saying thank you.
Thank you for listening to the pod each day, for tuning in, for
grinding in the arena through the dog days of summer.
And now you know, we can see thelight at the end of the tunnel
as football is pretty close to being back in our lives or
technically is now back in our lives with preseason.
But if you would like to help megrow the pod, would you please
(19:03):
give it a five star review on Spotify or iTunes?
Even a nice comment under the review section, click the follow
button recommend the pod to a friend.
That would also be fantastic. Next, if you enjoy the style of
betting breakdown, well, guess what If you want to learn more
about data-driven betting, I nowhave two books available to
purchase. Go to Amazon.com and go buy my
(19:24):
new book the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook.
You can also pick up the everything guide to sports
betting, which is my my first baby.
I now have two babies, which I'mvery proud of.
But seriously, if you guys wouldlike to by one or both to
support the team or maybe you have a friend or colleague or
family member who loves to bet on sports, loses a lot, you
know, bets with their heart doesn't even look at line
(19:46):
movement or splits or system matches.
Give them a copy of the everything guide or the NFL
sharp betting playbook. Pretty much breaks down the
whole data-driven approach to sports betting in general and
then again specifically had about the NFL.
So if you want to grab one, it'll mean the world to me.
I'll bring them to the sports book, I'll sign them for you and
I'll buy you a beer and we'll sweat some baseball games
(20:06):
together tonight. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
and Juice Reel yet? My two favorite sports betting
apps. Rhythm obviously does a
fantastic job powering this podcast, providing us AI backed
models and predictions for game bets and player props.
Obviously you have baseball and WNBA live in the app right now,
but I'd noticed yesterday I got an e-mail and then I popped open
(20:27):
the app and I saw how college football Week 1 system matches
are now available. So that's pretty cool as well.
And then pretty soon with NFL and I do have a an announcement
coming soon. We got something big planned for
this year with with rhythm and myself and my buddy Cade who
you'll meet, but also Juice Reel.
Juice Reel is another fantastic app that you want to download.
(20:51):
And this is the part of the pod where I'll pass the tip jar.
If you enjoy your podcast host, tip your podcast host by signing
up for the all systems go best bet picks, which you can only
get either A by listening to thepod or B, If you don't have time
and you won't want to support the pod 5 bucks a week.
You'll get those best bets on the juice Reel app.
So you can log in and you would have seen Seattle, Milwaukee,
(21:13):
San Diego even a little bit earlier today.
So if we beat some closing numbers, but again, pods free
tip your podcast host by gettingthose ASG best bets on juice
reel. You also get the robo Jackson
best bet picks. I forgot to mention this, but
one of them is on Seattle today.So I always love it when I
overlap with with the AI backed bot Mr. Robo Jackson.
(21:34):
You also get the sharp mush indicators.
The arbitrage plays the shop forthe best line futures sync up
your books all available when you download juice reel.
So download juice reel and download rhythm.
Give them a five star view in the App Store.
Next, do you have a live odds page?
Well, guess what? I have a chapter in the NFL
Sharp Betting Playbook specifically about the
importance of a live odds page. If you're data-driven better,
(21:55):
you need access to real, accurate, reliable data.
And you'll get up that data, thevast majority of it, from your
live odds page. All the games available that
day, all the sports that are in action, the opening lines, the
current lines across the marketplace, live in game
wagering odds, live in game scoring, notifications for
injuries and scratch starting pitchers, as well as the most
(22:18):
important thing to me is tracking the market, shopping
for the best price, finding the best number, identifying steam
when when it takes place across the market.
You can do all of that with an odds logic live odds page.
So again, there's a lot of live odds pages out there.
A lot of them are pretty good, but they're like 500 bucks a
month. I know of one that's even like I
think it's like 6 or 708 hundredbucks a month and then you can
(22:40):
get a free live odds page, but it's probably delayed.
You don't know where the data iscoming from.
They don't have any of the good books.
It doesn't update in real time. So you want to use odds logic.
It's the best one around at the best price.
And if you go to thislinkoddslogic.com/josh 123,
you're going to get a 7 day freetrial and 50% off your first
(23:00):
month. Again, give it a shot.
oddslogic.com/josh 123. So that about does it for
episode 334, the ASG pod on bookrelease day.
Man, I just I got I got extra adrenaline.
I got extra, extra juice today. It's a special day.
I'm pretty excited. It's always special when you
really work hard on something and then it's a very distant,
(23:21):
you know, far off thing and thenit actually happens.
It's just kind of crazy how it works out sometimes.
But anyway, guys, as always, I'mgonna leave you with two final
thoughts. Whether I see you at the Borgata
in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the
Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park, Casino, MGM Springfield in
Massachusetts, or the Nash closeto me on the border of Boston,
(23:46):
MA. And of course, New Hampshire,
Nashua. They're out in the desert where
the true grinders get down, where Billy Walter sends his
number runners, where the lowestuse possible is found at the
South Point or Sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
stadium swim pool. When you catch a big ticket at
Circa, you're going to walk up to me and we're just going to
we're just going to grab some brooms from the janitor's closet
and we're going to do a little fret of stair dance because we
(24:08):
busted them out last night. Guys, show me a Padres ticket, a
Tigers ticket or Yankees ticket.First one's on me, next one's on
you. We'll post about the book and
sweat some more baseball games for tonight.
So as always, guys, after a three and O night or an O and
three night, or A2 in one night or a one and two night, the
model, the blueprint, it always stays the same.
(24:28):
We got to make data-driven bats with our head and not our heart.
If a game has got some red flags, we don't touch it, but we
look for the games that fit our model against the public with
the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that
CLV. If we can do that and we can
make those bets long term with our head and our heart, then I'm
confident we're going to be successful sports bettors.
So have a great Tuesday, everybody.
(24:50):
Again, today is the book releaseday.
If you want to make my day, please would you consider buying
a copy of the NFL Sharp Betting playbook?
You can just go to my Twitter because I'm tweeting about it
left and right, but it means a lot to me if you picked up a
copy or if you're thinking aboutit.
And please don't be shy. I need the five star reviews and
some good comments that would really help us to to stay at #1
(25:11):
again, debuting #1 what's betterthan that?
I would argue nothing. But as always guys, good luck
and we'll see if we can cash some tickets tonight because
wise Man once said that's what it's all about and I would
agree. But I'll see you right back
tomorrow for a big Wednesday edition episode 335 of the All
Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
What are you guys waiting for? Go buy the NFL Sharp betting
(25:34):
playbook. Good luck everybody.
Hello, and welcome to episode 334 of the All Systems Go sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena,
guys. But it's not like any other day.
(00:41):
It is a very special day. It is Christmas morning.
It is your birthday. It is whatever your favorite day
of the year is. It's my favorite day of the year
because today is the day that mysecond book went live, the NFL
Sharp Betting Playbook. How to analyze the market, go
contrarian and bet like a data-driven wise guy.
I've been telling you guys August 12th, 2025 was the
(01:03):
release date and wouldn't you know it, August 12th happens to
be today. So it's been a long time coming.
I've been working on this book for over three years at this
point and today is the day we get to celebrate because it is
officially available to purchase.
Well, you could have pre-orderedit and I want to thank everyone
who did pre-order a copy on Amazon, but you can pick it up
Amazon.com. It can now be delivered to your
(01:24):
house. I've been seeing a lot of
screenshots of people who had pre-ordered it.
And you get that little tracker on Amazon that says like, you
know, delivery or in progress or, you know, you can track it
and see, hey, you know, someone's going to drop it at
your front porch today. So it's such an exciting day,
such a rewarding day, and it's really just kind of an amazing
day. So today's the day the NFL Sharp
(01:45):
Betting Playbook is good to go. It's available and wouldn't you
know it, I popped open the listing on Amazon.com and guess
what, we are the number one bestseller, not just the number one
new release, but the number one best seller in sports gambling
books on Amazon.com. So that is pretty amazing and
really goes to show that we've kind of built this data-driven
(02:07):
community. Again, sports betting is
exploding and kind of what I talk about in the book is that
everyone is, you know, most not everyone, but I think we're up
to like 40 states that are legalized and a couple others,
you know, coming up here. And we still haven't even got to
California or Texas or fully available in Florida.
But people want to bet on sports.
They want to do it legally, but they don't know how to do it.
(02:28):
And the whole point of the NFL Sharp Betting playbook was to
teach not, I'm not going to say the only approach to sports
betting, but the approach that Ihave become a quote UN quote
expert in. I guess you can call me an
expert, although it feels weird to call yourself an expert, but
kind of the philosophy that I was taught that I've learned,
that I've refined and that I tryto preach everyday on the all
systems Go pod. Again, approaching the sports
(02:50):
betting market with a blueprint and kind of a overarching
philosophy and a north star of tracking the betting market,
trying to figure out which direction the line's moving,
trying to be on the sharp side, trying to go contrarian.
It's this style of betting that I feel like is really
underserved and really, if you can just, you know, just get
attached to a few different tipsand strategies, you know you're
(03:11):
going to become a more profitable better by betting
with your head and not your heart.
And that's the whole point of the NFL sharp betting playbook,
to teach betters, whether you'rebrand new or maybe you bet
football for quite a while, but you threw darts, you bet based
on who looked good last week andyou know, you bet your favorite
teams, you parlay everything. Well, this book now provides an
approach to data-driven sports betting.
And again, I really don't see any other books like this across
(03:34):
the market. So the fact that we've really
broken some records for pre sales and it's available today
and we're already #1 in the Amazon sports gambling list,
that really makes me very excited and very happy.
So if you want to pick up a copy, you can now order it on
Amazon. You can also go to your local
Barnes and Noble or bookstore and pick it up.
But either way, guys, we are live.
(03:55):
It's here, It's beautiful. What's the Seinfeld quote?
They're real and they're spectacular.
Well, this book is real and it'sspectacular and I really don't
owe it all to you guys. So I want to thank everyone who
has purchased it. I want to thank everyone who's
thinking about buying it. And now what I'm going to do is
plead for some five star reviewson Amazon.
If you enjoy the book, you read it and you think, hey, man, this
(04:18):
is pretty well written, gave me some tips I didn't always know
about. If you want to support the team,
I would love for you guys to buyit on Amazon.
It's a it'll be a verified purchase and then leave a five
star review and a little blurb. Hey, I really enjoyed the
section on avoiding parlays or Inever really knew how to bet
teasers. I like this section or I really
I had no, you know, bankroll management.
I enjoyed, you know, chapter 3. But if you'd like to buy the
(04:40):
book, give it a five star review.
Really, that's kind of how Amazon really ranks these books
based on not just people buying it, but you want five star
reviews and some good comments so other people can can see that
there's some value there. So it is available paperback.
It's also available with audiobook.
A lot of people were asking my first book, the the everything
guide to sports betting. They're asking for an audio
(05:02):
book. Well, guess what?
The audio book is available out for purchase if you're if you
want to like my guy Willie Tomlinson, He said, hey, I
bought the the paperback, but maybe I'll get the audiobook.
So when I walk my dog, I can just put in my headphones and
listen as well. So I want to thank Willie and
the whole crew, everybody, seriously, this is kind of a
it's like graduation day. I don't know what you want to
call it, but again, I'm just kind of standing on the
shoulders of giants and you know, it's it's great to see
(05:25):
this thing go Live Today. So I'm very, very proud of it.
So go buy the NFL sharp betting playbook now.
I buried the lead because I don't know what's going on in
the universe, but we're a littlebit hot right now because last
night we swept the board in Baseball 3 and O + 2.43 units
had to go through a rain delay, but luckily didn't stop us with
the Tigers. Spencer Torkelson hit a huge
(05:47):
home run in the ninth to win 2 to one.
Yankees came through. They've been terrible, but they
their bats came alive and they got a win for us.
And then also the Padres. And a lot of people were saying,
man, you're taking Darvish over web.
It's like, no, web's obviously the better picture.
But what was the market telling us?
We saw that 5050 line move toward the Padres and the Padres
came through with the winner. So after a nice little sweep,
(06:08):
busting out the brooms, book release day, let's see if we can
keep it going and eke out another winning day for today on
the MLB diamond. So that being said, guys,
another three pack for you on book release day.
Let's try to go 2 and one and again, turn a small profit
because I do have a chapter in the book called Realistic
Expectations. Know what you're up against,
sorry, know what? You know, what you're getting
(06:29):
into and knowing what you're up against and realistic
expectations is not, hey, 3 bets, let's go three.
And Oh no, it's try to go 2 and one each got a winning day
because I think that's important.
But anyway, 3 pack overall, first one on the board for me.
Let's look at an early matchup. This is the Seattle Mariners
visiting the Baltimore Orioles early, 6:35 PM Eastern Time,
first pitch. So setting the stage here, the
(06:51):
Mariners are 66 and 53. They've won seven straight.
They're red hot. They just swept the Rays.
They won that series finale 6 to3 as a -180 home favorite.
Meanwhile, the OS 53 and 65 justdropped two or three against the
A's. They lost that series finale 3
to 2 as a -125 home favorite. So pitch a match up for the
opener. Here we have the M's going with
(07:12):
the ready George Kirby. He's seven and five with a four
point O 4 ERA. Meanwhile, the O's are going to
go with the fellow righty Dean Kramer.
He's 8:00 and 8:00 with a 4.35 ERA.
What do we see across the markethere?
Well, this game opened Mariners listed around a -, 140 -, 145
Rd. favorite. The Orioles around a + 120 + 125
Rd. dog. And we've seen nothing but
(07:34):
movement in favor of the O's because the Orioles, we've
gotten steamed up -145 now up toaround -160 -, 165.
Some shops reached as high as -175 even -180 that's when you
saw a little bit of buy back dropping this line back down to
around -165 in favor of Seattle.But either way, from open to
current, it's been all Seattle money.
(07:55):
Now, aside from the line move toward the Mariners, pretty good
bet splits on the Ms. If you look at DraftKings, around 70%
of bets, but nearly 80% of dollars are going with Seattle.
So kind of a pro and Joe split here where Publix probably just
saying, hey, Seattle made a bunch of good moves at the
deadline. They're red hot, just play them.
Whereas wise guys are saying thevalue of the number is the most
(08:16):
important thing because again, maybe their internal numbers had
this close to a -, 165 game to begin with.
So when they opened, you know, as low as you know -140 -, 145
that presented an edge or an actionable advantage over the
book. Aside from the splits in the
line move, we do have some good system matches on Seattle
favorites coming off a day off, getting at least $0.05 of line
(08:37):
movement. The Mariners are matching this
spot here, 87 and 3969% with a 9% ROI this year.
If they're also coming off a win.
So your favorite off a day off, off a win and getting line
movement. They improved to 53 and 2172%
with a 13% ROI. All the Mariners do have some
(08:57):
betting system value as a non division favorite.
So the lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the
better team and going to bank onthe Mariners offense hopefully
playing well today. You always wonder Cal Raleigh,
will he be in or out of the lineup?
Guys been incredible. But he is a catcher and he's
coming off a day off and he actually DH on Sunday.
So he should be good to go. And you got a pretty incredible
line up there with man, who is it, a Rose Arena, Raleigh, Julio
(09:20):
Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor.
Even got a guy like Polanco hitting like 6 or 7th.
But anyway, on the year, they'vehit 171 home runs.
They scored 547 runs. Orioles have hit 144 homers,
scored 505 runs. We also get Kirby in particular.
Seattle is 9 and two and Kirby'slast 11 starts and he's giving
(09:44):
up two earned runs or less in nine of his last 12 starts.
Meanwhile, Kramer, who's going for Baltimore, he's giving up
three earned runs or more in three straight starts.
We also look at just these teamsin recent performance.
Mariners are 9 and one over their last 10.
They're hitting 231 with a 2.917ERA.
(10:04):
The OS, meanwhile, 3 and seven over their last ten, hitting
only $1.86 with a 4.81 ERA. So we got a line move toward the
Mariners. We have a great system, match
favorite off a day off, off a win with a line move, better
offense, hopefully the better pitcher on the bump.
I'm laying it here with Seattle.Shop around.
Looks like the best number on Seattle's around -160 But again,
(10:26):
some books as high as -170 even -175 across the board.
So let's go EMS next one on the board. 7:40 PM Eastern Time, the
Pittsburgh Pirates visiting the Milwaukee beer makers now coming
into it. The Brewers, me and this team
just cannot lose their 74 and 4430 games above 500.
They're on a 10 game-winning streak.
(10:47):
They won last night's series opener. 7:00 to 1:00 coming
through as a - 190 home favorite.
Now pitching match up here for tonight, the pirates, who are 51
and 69. They're going with their ace
Paul Skeens 7 and eight with a 1.94 ERA.
On the other hand, we're going to go with the Brewers righty
Freddie Peralta, who's 13 and five with a three-point O3 team
(11:08):
ERA. Now, what are we seeing across
the market here? Will this game open Milwaukee, a
very short -115 home favorite Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh round and
even money or -1 O 5 Rd. Dog and sharps are saying we
know skins is great, but the Brewers are red hot.
They're at home and they're laying a very short price and
wise guys are laying it with Milwaukee because we've seen
(11:29):
Milwaukee again, who was 110 straight and there's some insane
record where I think they're like 49 and 16 over their last
like 65 games or something. But Milwaukee has gotten steamed
up -115 up to -125 and some shops are even as high as -130
So it's notable that even thoughSkeens is a dog, the lines going
(11:51):
further toward Milwaukee or against Skeens now, the brew
crew at DraftKings. 68% of moneyline bets, 75% of money line
dollars. So good low bets, higher dollar
pro and Joe split. I do have one system match I
really like, or there's actuallyquite a few on Milwaukee
tonight. But one that really jumped out
to me is that if you're a short home favorite -140 or less and
(12:13):
you're off a win, but also receiving line movement in your
direction, those teams have beenreally, really good this year on
the season. Those teams are, let me find it
for you, 51 and 3261 percent, 11% ROI since July 1st.
Brewers are also in the spot, highly profitable.
When they are a favorite, they're 42 and 1969 percent, 15%
(12:37):
ROI. That makes them the best chalk
team in baseball when they're favored and getting line
movement in their direction. Milwaukee is 30 and 1271% of the
17% ROI. So a match for tonight being a
chalk favorite and a favorite with a line move.
The Brewers also have some correlative betting is a very
low total and open at 7:00. It's down to 6 1/2 and we've
(12:57):
seen historically favorite low totals have been a good
combination because the fewer amount of expected run scored
more likely to come from quote UN quote, the better team.
Milwaukee does have the better bats.
They're hitting 257 on the year.They've hit 122 home runs and
scored 594 runs. And on the flip side, the
Pirates are only hitting 232 on the year with 84 homers and 427
(13:20):
runs scored. Peralta, I mean, first with
skeins, again, the guy's incredible.
So you're, there's a lot of numbers that'll say skeins is
great, which he is. But are we under selling Freddy
Peralta? He's 7 and one with a 2.13 ERA
at home this year. Lastly, the Brew Crew are 40 and
20 at home this year. Meanwhile, the Pirates are just
(13:42):
17 and 40 on the road, one of the worst Rd. teams in baseball.
So we got a line move toward Milwaukee.
Even though Skeens is great, market is fading.
Skeens good system matches favorite low total.
And oh, by the way, I popped open the Juice Reel app, noticed
a 19% pretty big, 19% sharp mushedge in favor of the beer
(14:03):
makers. So that it all up here guys.
Again, the Brewers are red hot alot of times.
They're -170 -, 200 pretty decent price here to back
Milwaukee and the market is moving in their favor.
So I'm on the Brew Crew. I got him at -125 at Bet MGM.
Shop around some books now closer to her.
Most books, closer to -130 last bed of the night, another late
(14:24):
night sweat. Let's go right back to San Fran.
Mccovey Cove. It's always been a dream of
mine, me and my dad one day to go to San Fran and see a Red Sox
Giants game because I've heard how great this stadium is.
But anyway, Giants hosting the San Diego Padres 9:45 PM Eastern
Time tonight, setting the stage here.
The Padres, who are 67 and 52, had a huge win for us last
(14:46):
night. 4 to one came through as a + 110 row dog rematch here
tonight. We got a couple lefties on the
bump. The Padres are starting Nestor
Cortez, who they picked up in a trade at the deadline.
He's one and one with a 7.11 ERA.
Giants meanwhile, going with thefellow southpaw Robbie Ray, he's
nine and five with a 2.85 ERA. So what we've seen across the
(15:07):
market here, well, San Fran opened around a -, 135 home
favorite. The Padres are on a + 115 row
dog and the public is slightly leaning San Fran better pitcher
on the bump, at least on paper in a relatively modest price.
And again, Giants are at home. They lost last night.
They got a bounce back and win tonight.
However, even though you're getting 54% of money line bets
(15:29):
coming in on than San Fran, the line hasn't moved further toward
San Francisco. It hasn't gone up in favor of
the Giants. It's gone the other way.
It's falling away from San Fran toward San Diego.
San Fran has fallen from -135 down to -120 some shops even
down to -115. Conversely, the pods have gone
from plus 115 down to around plus 100, and some shops even
(15:52):
now like -1 O 2 - 1 O 5. So that tells me we got smart
money taking the dads once again.
I'm going dads two nights in a row circa Padres. 40% of bets,
60% of dollars. So good low bets, higher dollar
split tell us the bigger sharperwagers are also leaning.
Padres here. San Diego does have a betting
(16:13):
system match as a divisional dog.
So built in familiarity, leveling the playing field,
leading to more upsets and benefiting the team getting plus
money. If we dig a little deeper into
the pods as a dog, and again, they came through last night,
same sort of thing, dog line move, but they're 28 and 26 as a
dog this year, 52 percent, 16% ROI.
(16:35):
That makes them the sixth most profitable dog in baseball.
Dads are also 41 and 2760 percent, 7% ROI against teams
with a 500 record or below. So they pretty much cleaned up
on quote UN quote mediocre or bad teams.
Also, we have two lefties on thebump.
So anytime I see two lefties, and I do this with every match
(16:56):
up. Lefty righty.
But how do these teams hit lefties?
Well, San Diego is 11th best batting average in baseball
against lefties. They're hitting 247.
Conversely, the Giants are only hitting 211 against southpaws.
That's 30th in baseball. And guess how many teams are in
MLB? 30 teams.
That means they are dead last batting average against lefties.
(17:17):
I mentioned this yesterday, but it applies again for tonight.
Giants 7 and 15 since the All Star break, 18 and 29 since
acquiring Rafael Devers. Devers did hit a home run last
night, but still Red Sox look like they've it's not like
looking like it's true. They've had a good record since
trading away Devers and it's been the opposite for San Fran.
(17:38):
And then also, by the way, theseteams have played seven times
this year. Divisional opponents Padres are
five and two. So I think the obvious thought
would be, hey, Ray's better thanCortez.
San Fran's got to bounce back and win.
But let's stay true to the market, which we always try to
do. Publix leaning San Fran with a
sign of continuing to fall toward the fathers.
So I'm jumping on the fathers here, guys.
(17:59):
I got him at +100. I believe that's FanDuel still
offering plus 100. But shop around.
Some books are even now. Minus one O 2 -. 1 O 5 toward
the dads. So 3 pack today.
The Mariners, the Brewers, the Padres, when we find a way to
get 2 out of 3 eek out a winningday, that of course is always
the goal. So that about does it for
(18:20):
episode 334 of the All systems Go sports Betting podcast on
book release day. I'm seriously, guys, it's like
it's crazy. I don't know, I just got some
some great energy today. I'll see you in the book go live
and I can't wait for you guys tocheck it out and read it.
And timing. There's a reason why we picked
early August for this thing to drop so you have enough time to
get ready for the NFL season. But anyway, guys, this is the
(18:43):
part of the pod where we wrap things up.
So I want to start first by saying thank you.
Thank you for listening to the pod each day, for tuning in, for
grinding in the arena through the dog days of summer.
And now you know, we can see thelight at the end of the tunnel
as football is pretty close to being back in our lives or
technically is now back in our lives with preseason.
But if you would like to help megrow the pod, would you please
(19:03):
give it a five star review on Spotify or iTunes?
Even a nice comment under the review section, click the follow
button recommend the pod to a friend.
That would also be fantastic. Next, if you enjoy the style of
betting breakdown, well, guess what If you want to learn more
about data-driven betting, I nowhave two books available to
purchase. Go to Amazon.com and go buy my
(19:24):
new book the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook.
You can also pick up the everything guide to sports
betting, which is my my first baby.
I now have two babies, which I'mvery proud of.
But seriously, if you guys wouldlike to by one or both to
support the team or maybe you have a friend or colleague or
family member who loves to bet on sports, loses a lot, you
know, bets with their heart doesn't even look at line
(19:46):
movement or splits or system matches.
Give them a copy of the everything guide or the NFL
sharp betting playbook. Pretty much breaks down the
whole data-driven approach to sports betting in general and
then again specifically had about the NFL.
So if you want to grab one, it'll mean the world to me.
I'll bring them to the sports book, I'll sign them for you and
I'll buy you a beer and we'll sweat some baseball games
(20:06):
together tonight. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
and Juice Reel yet? My two favorite sports betting
apps. Rhythm obviously does a
fantastic job powering this podcast, providing us AI backed
models and predictions for game bets and player props.
Obviously you have baseball and WNBA live in the app right now,
but I'd noticed yesterday I got an e-mail and then I popped open
(20:27):
the app and I saw how college football Week 1 system matches
are now available. So that's pretty cool as well.
And then pretty soon with NFL and I do have a an announcement
coming soon. We got something big planned for
this year with with rhythm and myself and my buddy Cade who
you'll meet, but also Juice Reel.
Juice Reel is another fantastic app that you want to download.
(20:51):
And this is the part of the pod where I'll pass the tip jar.
If you enjoy your podcast host, tip your podcast host by signing
up for the all systems go best bet picks, which you can only
get either A by listening to thepod or B, If you don't have time
and you won't want to support the pod 5 bucks a week.
You'll get those best bets on the juice Reel app.
So you can log in and you would have seen Seattle, Milwaukee,
(21:13):
San Diego even a little bit earlier today.
So if we beat some closing numbers, but again, pods free
tip your podcast host by gettingthose ASG best bets on juice
reel. You also get the robo Jackson
best bet picks. I forgot to mention this, but
one of them is on Seattle today.So I always love it when I
overlap with with the AI backed bot Mr. Robo Jackson.
(21:34):
You also get the sharp mush indicators.
The arbitrage plays the shop forthe best line futures sync up
your books all available when you download juice reel.
So download juice reel and download rhythm.
Give them a five star view in the App Store.
Next, do you have a live odds page?
Well, guess what? I have a chapter in the NFL
Sharp Betting Playbook specifically about the
importance of a live odds page. If you're data-driven better,
(21:55):
you need access to real, accurate, reliable data.
And you'll get up that data, thevast majority of it, from your
live odds page. All the games available that
day, all the sports that are in action, the opening lines, the
current lines across the marketplace, live in game
wagering odds, live in game scoring, notifications for
injuries and scratch starting pitchers, as well as the most
(22:18):
important thing to me is tracking the market, shopping
for the best price, finding the best number, identifying steam
when when it takes place across the market.
You can do all of that with an odds logic live odds page.
So again, there's a lot of live odds pages out there.
A lot of them are pretty good, but they're like 500 bucks a
month. I know of one that's even like I
think it's like 6 or 708 hundredbucks a month and then you can
(22:40):
get a free live odds page, but it's probably delayed.
You don't know where the data iscoming from.
They don't have any of the good books.
It doesn't update in real time. So you want to use odds logic.
It's the best one around at the best price.
And if you go to thislinkoddslogic.com/josh 123,
you're going to get a 7 day freetrial and 50% off your first
(23:00):
month. Again, give it a shot.
oddslogic.com/josh 123. So that about does it for
episode 334, the ASG pod on bookrelease day.
Man, I just I got I got extra adrenaline.
I got extra, extra juice today. It's a special day.
I'm pretty excited. It's always special when you
really work hard on something and then it's a very distant,
(23:21):
you know, far off thing and thenit actually happens.
It's just kind of crazy how it works out sometimes.
But anyway, guys, as always, I'mgonna leave you with two final
thoughts. Whether I see you at the Borgata
in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the
Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park, Casino, MGM Springfield in
Massachusetts, or the Nash closeto me on the border of Boston,
(23:46):
MA. And of course, New Hampshire,
Nashua. They're out in the desert where
the true grinders get down, where Billy Walter sends his
number runners, where the lowestuse possible is found at the
South Point or Sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
stadium swim pool. When you catch a big ticket at
Circa, you're going to walk up to me and we're just going to
we're just going to grab some brooms from the janitor's closet
and we're going to do a little fret of stair dance because we
(24:08):
busted them out last night. Guys, show me a Padres ticket, a
Tigers ticket or Yankees ticket.First one's on me, next one's on
you. We'll post about the book and
sweat some more baseball games for tonight.
So as always, guys, after a three and O night or an O and
three night, or A2 in one night or a one and two night, the
model, the blueprint, it always stays the same.
(24:28):
We got to make data-driven bats with our head and not our heart.
If a game has got some red flags, we don't touch it, but we
look for the games that fit our model against the public with
the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that
CLV. If we can do that and we can
make those bets long term with our head and our heart, then I'm
confident we're going to be successful sports bettors.
So have a great Tuesday, everybody.
(24:50):
Again, today is the book releaseday.
If you want to make my day, please would you consider buying
a copy of the NFL Sharp Betting playbook?
You can just go to my Twitter because I'm tweeting about it
left and right, but it means a lot to me if you picked up a
copy or if you're thinking aboutit.
And please don't be shy. I need the five star reviews and
some good comments that would really help us to to stay at #1
(25:11):
again, debuting #1 what's betterthan that?
I would argue nothing. But as always guys, good luck
and we'll see if we can cash some tickets tonight because
wise Man once said that's what it's all about and I would
agree. But I'll see you right back
tomorrow for a big Wednesday edition episode 335 of the All
Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
What are you guys waiting for? Go buy the NFL Sharp betting
(25:34):
playbook. Good luck everybody.
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New Heights with Jason & Travis Kelce
Football’s funniest family duo — Jason Kelce of the Philadelphia Eagles and Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs — team up to provide next-level access to life in the league as it unfolds. The two brothers and Super Bowl champions drop weekly insights about the weekly slate of games and share their INSIDE perspectives on trending NFL news and sports headlines. They also endlessly rag on each other as brothers do, chat the latest in pop culture and welcome some very popular and well-known friends to chat with them. Check out new episodes every Wednesday. Follow New Heights on the Wondery App, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. You can listen to new episodes early and ad-free, and get exclusive content on Wondery+. Join Wondery+ in the Wondery App, Apple Podcasts or Spotify. And join our new membership for a unique fan experience by going to the New Heights YouTube channel now!