August 13, 2025 • 23 mins
In Episode 335, Josh dishes out a 3-pack of MLB plays for Tuesday night. Josh's new book "The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook" is OUT NOW and currently #1 on Amazon!
Purchase your copy today and get ready for the NFL season.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:19):
Hello, and welcome to episode 335 of the All Systems Go Sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Wednesday. Happy hump day, guys.
(00:39):
We are halfway through our work week and oh what a day it was
yesterday. I'll give you the the overall
reason why it was a great day and then reason that was also a
great day. The first up was the fact that
we had another sweep of the board. 3 and O + 2.38 units, 6
and O. Our last six pod plays did have
a nice one with Seattle 1 Nothing.
(01:00):
Yesterday. All we needed was one run and
then the the Mariners were able to lock that down and get that
one. Nothing.
Win the Brew Crew. Oh my God, have you seen the
team hotter than the Brewers laying -125 they went 14 to
nothing roughing up Paul Skeens and then a late night sweat with
the Padres winning 5 to 1. Had another great great dog
(01:20):
divisional dog line move there in in favor of the pods.
So a nice little 3 and O yesterday plus 2.38 units, A6
and O around 5 units over the last couple days.
And I I would argue you know whywe're hot right now?
Because there's something going on with the gambling gods in the
sports betting world. Because this big hot stretch has
coincided with the release of mysecond book, Barry in the lead
(01:41):
today, guys. But the NFL sharp betting
playbook debuted yesterday came out for everyone to to read and
get their hands on. You can get the paperback copy
old school if you're at a beach or like reading a book.
Do people still read books? I hope they do because I just
wrote my second one. But then you can also get the
audio book if you're the type ofperson that wants to listen to
it in the car or maybe listen toit when you're while you're
(02:02):
making dinner or maybe you won'ttake the dog for a walk.
You want to put some headphones in the audio book as well as
paperback. And you know what was even
better about yesterday's debut? We went straight to number one,
baby. If you look at the Amazon best
seller list in the category of sports gambling, we are #1 So
what an incredible day it was yesterday.
I want to thank all of you who have purchased the book, whether
(02:26):
it's a pre-order or you picked it up yesterday, but it is fully
available completely. And again, now's the time where
it's really kind of the dog daysof summer.
We're grinding baseball, obviously, but football is it's
about to get crazy around here, guys.
So if you wanted to support the team, if you wanted to really
more importantly, not just, you know, support your podcast host
and your author over here, but get some benefit to you by being
(02:47):
able to brush up on how to bet the NFL.
There's still time to bet some win totals.
I'll have a final batch of all my futures bets.
We'll talk about that prior to Week 1.
But then of course, how to bet pre season.
Already looking at NFL Week 1 win totals.
We still got to hit on divisional bet, stuff like that,
but it's a great refresher to get you excited for the football
season. So thank you for making it
(03:09):
number one. I can't believe it.
Number one on Amazon. I also wanted to make a small
request if you did purchase the book, you guys have already been
tweeting me a little, little little photo of the book and I
would love for you guys to continue to do that.
My buddy Da Rush did it. I want to give a quick shout out
to everyone who has tweeted out a picture of the the NFL sharp
betting playbook. So we got my buddy Derouche
(03:31):
Bears nation living the dream Vegas, Mitch Bossy had the
Montag group. My agent tweeted out A at as
smart wad love that handle therehorses in hockey, my buddy Andy
Gresh, Willie Tomlinson, my buddy Mike Fedotowski, Mike
Barton, as well as triumph books.
(03:51):
And again, all you guys have been tweeting a photo of it.
Keep it coming because I will retweet you and I love seeing
the book like in terms of like people holding it or at their
desk or in front of something cool.
So keep it rolling here. Tweet me a copy or or screenshot
or a photo of you with the book.And then also I'm going to ask
for as many five star reviews onAmazon as possible because we're
(04:12):
number one right now. But really we want to have the
strongest five star reviews. I've already got one under the
belt. But I want you guys, if you
wouldn't mind to spend a couple minutes, give the the NFL sharp
Betting Playbook A5 star review on Amazon and then nice little
blurb. Maybe you say, hey, I really
enjoyed Josh's first book. This one's even better.
Like the section on betting systems or I had no bankroll
(04:35):
management. I really enjoyed the section on
bankroll management or not parlaying or I'm brand new to
betting and provided me a blueprint, whatever it may be. 5
star reviews with, with some couple, it all takes a sentence
or two. If you want to go more in depth,
hey, that's even better. But seriously guys, we're we
debuted #1 Can you believe that?I'm pretty proud of it and it
just goes to show the thirst, I would say for data-driven
(04:57):
betting. Sports betting is getting
legalized pretty much everywhereyou look except for ironically
the big states, California, Texas and Florida.
But I think there's a thirst forbetting and people realize
number one, they think betting is easy.
They find out that it's hard andthen number 2, they realize I
can't just throw darts. I can't just bet on what I think
will happen. I need a blueprint to attack.
(05:17):
Obviously the number one sport here, the NFL, but betting in
general and that's what the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook does.
So thank you for purchasing it. If you haven't done yet, please
order a copy from Amazon.com. Tweet me your pictures of the
book and also five star reviews with some some little blurbs.
That would be super, super cool of you guys as well.
So that being said, six and O I'm not looking for another 3
(05:39):
and O, but I'll take a 2IN1 eke out of winning day.
But we're going to get right back to do what we love to do,
which is betting on Major LeagueBaseball because pretty soon,
you know, we got August, we got September, we'll have the
playoffs. But baseball's, you know,
there's still a good chunk left,but I want to embrace all these
baseball days we have because they're not going to be here
forever. So that being said, three pack
overall to guy today, guys, let's waste no more time and
(06:02):
dive right in. First one on the board for me.
Let's go to Cleveland where the Guardians are hosting the Miami
Marlins 6:40 PM Eastern Time, first pitch.
So setting the stage for this interleague match up, the guards
who are 62 and 56 and now on theheels of Detroit.
Or are they 5-6 games back in the Yale Central, which is crazy
because they're like 15 games back a month ago.
(06:23):
But anyway, they won the opener last night against the Marlins,
4 to 3. Came through as a -135 home
favorite pitching match up for tonight.
Looks pretty good. The Marlins, who are 57 and 62,
they're going to go with the ready Yuri Perez.
He's four and three with a 3.25 ERA.
He'll be opposed by Guardians righty Gavin Williams, who's
seven and four with a 3.17 ERA. More on Williams in a second.
(06:45):
If you remember his last start, this line opened with Cleveland
around a -, 120 -, 125 home favorite.
Miami around a + 105 Rd. Dog and sharps.
You're saying let's ride the hothand here?
Guardians I believe are 16 and seven since the All Star break.
But we have seen Cleveland get steamed up.
They open -120 -, 125 now they're up to -135.
(07:07):
I jumped on the guards at -135 again, but shop around.
Some books are closer to -140. We have some pretty good splits
on Cleveland. Number one at DraftKings, 70% of
bets, 82% of dollars, and then at Circa, 67% of bets, 80% of
dollars. So both DraftKings and Circa
with some good pro and Joe splits low bets higher dollars
(07:29):
in favor of the home chalk. Now, once it's the match that
lights up for me on Cleveland, which I really like, if you're a
short home favorite -140 or less, you're getting line
movement and you're coming off awin.
Since July 1st, those teams havebeen really good, 53 and 3262%,
but because of the short chalk price, it's actually a 12% ROI.
(07:49):
The Guardians in particular havebeen pretty good in this spot.
When they are a favorite, they're the third best chalk
team in baseball, 33 and 1964 percent, 9% ROI.
And when they are a favorite against a below 500 club,
they've typically done well taking care of business.
They're 27 and 1466 percent, 12%ROI.
(08:09):
Cleveland would have that interleague favorite betting
system value, so lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN
quote the better team and we also have Cleveland with some
correlative betting value. So this game is a very low total
of 8, some books even down to 7 1/2 and we have Cleveland
obviously favored. So lines moving further to
Cleveland, it's a low total. Typically that bodes well
(08:30):
because you would expect the fewer amount of run scored to
come from more likely the betterteam was expected to win.
I mentioned Gavin Williams, I learned the hard way.
I bet against Williams his last start out.
I remember I was on the Mets, that was a podcast play and
Gavin Williams almost had a no hitter.
I believe he took a no hitter into the 9th and maybe with one
or two outs he gave up a home run.
I think DeSoto, but still he hasa 0.61 ERA in two August starts.
(08:55):
He's only giving up one run in 14.2 and he's pitched.
He's giving up two earned runs or less in four straight starts
and at home he's been pretty good five and two 2.77 ERA.
So I want to back Williams. He's really throwing the ball
well right now. On the other hand, Yuri Perez
got good stats overall, but lasttwo starts, 3.97 ERA, five runs
(09:15):
allowed in 11.1 innings pitched.And at home, the guy's been
great. Two point O 8 ERA, but on the
road, 4 point O1. So he's struggled a little bit
in August and he's been worse onthe road than at home and he's
on the road tonight. Last 10 Guardians have played
very well. They're eight and two over the
last 10 games. They have a 2.87 team ERA.
They're pitching very well. Marlins, meanwhile, 3 and seven
(09:37):
over their last 10 ERA of a little bit over 6.
Then lastly, a little bit of home Rd.
Nothing crazy, but Cleveland is 30 and 27 at home.
Miami is 29 and 31 on the road. So we have a line move toward
Cleveland. We have a really good pro and
Joe bet split. We got some good system matches
here. Correlative betting,
interleague, favorite value. I lead it here with the
(09:58):
guardian. So let's see if we can hopefully
start the night off with a guardians when they've been red
hot. Let's keep it going, let's go
Gavin Williams. I got Cleveland -135 at Bet MGM,
next one for you. Let's go right back to the
Bronx. Let's get some New York style
pizza. Let's go swit the Yankees 7:05
PM Eastern Time, first pitch theTwins at the aforementioned New
(10:19):
York Yankees. Now the Yankees have taken the
first two games of this three-game set.
Yankees are 64 and 56 on the year.
They won the opener six to two. Remember, he played in the other
night, came through as a -180 home favorite and they won again
yesterday, 9:00 to 1:00 as a - 215 home favorite.
So pitching matchup for tonight,Twins who are 56 and 63.
(10:41):
They're going to go with the righty Joe Ryan, the last man
standing as everyone else has been traded.
He's been good 11 and five 2.79 ERA.
Yankees meanwhile, going with Cam Schlitter, the righty one
and two 4.38 ERA. Now this game open New York, NY
around a -. 125 home favorite Minnesota around a plus one O 5
(11:01):
Rd. dog. And you would think on paper,
Joe Ryan greater than Cam Schlitter, right?
However, the market is fading, Ryan, and moving further up
toward the Yankees because the Yankees have gotten steamed up
-125 up to -150 I got Yankees -150 at FanDuel.
Shop around though, because somebooks are closer to -155.
Now, if we look at the splits inparticular in Vegas out at
(11:23):
Circa, only 39% of bets are on the Yankees, but it accounts for
a little more than half the money.
So that would be a sharp contrarian, low bets, higher
dollar split telling us those bigger wise guy wagers are on.
The Yankees do have some system matches on New York favorites
off a win with a winning record getting at least $0.05 of line
movement and they also made the playoffs the previous year.
(11:45):
That system is 140 and 6867 percent, 5% ROI this season.
Another system here is a non division home favorite -160 or
less off a win getting line movement.
They're 101 and 6262 percent, 9%ROI.
So 2 good matchups or two systemmatches in favor of New York.
(12:05):
The Yankees would have that non division favorite value.
So lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote.
The better team was expected to win.
Yankees bats have kind of come alive this series.
They struggled prior. Let's hope that continues
because the Yankees do have the better offense.
Hitting 250 on the year, 190 home runs, 611 runs scored.
Twins hitting 239 only 140 homers, 497 runs scored.
(12:29):
And lastly a little bit of home Rd.
Minnesota has really struggled on the road, 24 and 38.
Yankees pretty good at home, 37 and 24.
So big steam toward New York again.
Joe Ryan's a good pitcher. This almost reminds me a little
bit of the the Brewers and Paul Skeens last night where Skeens,
great pitcher, but the line was moving a little bit further
toward Milwaukee. Same sort of thing here.
(12:52):
So hopefully the Yankees offensecomes to play once again.
We got line movement, really good system matches here.
Home Rd. splits, better offense.I lead it with the Yankees.
I got New York at -150 last bit of the night.
Anybody want to stay up late? Sweat this one with me. 10 O
5:00 PM Eastern Time, the Tampa Bay Rays visiting the Athletics,
(13:12):
not the Oakland Athletics, technically the Sacramento
Athletics, but pretty soon they'll be in Vegas.
Cannot wait for that because then I'll be able to go visit
Vegas and I'll plan it around when the Red Sox visit the Vegas
A's, which sounds pretty cool ifyou ask me.
And also I believe it's a eithera tractable roof or half roof or
something like that because it gets very hot out there in the
summer and you need a you need aroof out there and keep it cool.
(13:35):
But anyway, this is the rubber match of a three-game set.
The Rays, who are 58 and 63 on the year they won the opener 7
to 4 came through as a - 110 Rd.pick em.
Then we saw the A's who are 54 and 68.
They went and bounced back with a six.
Nothing win yesterday came through as a - 110 home pick em.
So both games have been pick em games.
However, for this one here tonight, we got the rays going
(13:57):
with the righty Drew Rasmussen, who's nine and five with a 2.66
ERA. More on him in a second.
He's been really good all year long.
The A's meanwhile, going with the righty JT Ginn.
He's two and four with a 4.39 ERA.
So what do you see across the market here?
Well, this game opened Tampa Bayaround a -, 120 Rd. favorite.
So it wasn't a pick em game, butit was slightly toward Tampa A's
(14:20):
around a plus one O 5 home dog. And we've seen this line move
further toward the Tampa Bay Rays.
Rays have now gotten steamed up -120 up to -130 I jumped on rays
-130 at Bet MGM. Shop around.
A lot of books are at 1:35 rightnow.
But aside from this line move, some good splits coming down on
Tampa Bay. They're getting 61% of money
(14:40):
line bets, 74% of money line dollars at at DraftKings and
then at Circa only half the tickets 50% but 90% of the
money. So both books are showing a
pretty good low bets higher dollar split, especially at
circa with only half the tickets.
But nine out of $10 system matchhere.
That lit up for me on Tampa. If you are a road favorite and
(15:01):
you just got shut out the previous game, those teams in
the next game have gone 28 and 1664 percent, 11% ROI.
Tampa would have that non division favorite value.
So lack of familiarity hopefullybenefiting that quote UN quote
better team was expected to win,which would be Tampa here based
on the -130 price. I wanted to mention a little bit
more about Rasmussen, Rasmussen how we pronounce it.
(15:24):
But he has a 0.00 ERA in two August starts.
He's giving up zero runs in 11.1innings pitched.
He has given up two earned runs or less in seven straight starts
and he's four and O with a 2.85 ERA on the road.
So he's been good, good in August, really good his last
seven starts and good on the road.
Meanwhile, JT Ginn 6.75 ERA in two August starts, giving up
(15:48):
seven runs and 9.1 innings pitched.
He has a on the road he's respectable 3.29 ERA, but at
home 5.54 ERA. So I want to back Rasmussen,
Rasmussen and fade JT Ginn. Lastly, if this becomes a
bullpen game, we got to sweat it.
It is kind of a higher total 9 1/2, but the Rays do have the
(16:08):
better pen. Team ERA of 3.72 versus 5.11 for
the A's. That's the third worst in
baseball. So it's the rubber match of a
series. We've rotated win so far, but we
open with a favorite with Tampa.They become more of a favorite.
They got good splits. I really like the system match
again Rd. favorite after gettingshut out, winning 2/3 of the
time basically, as well as hopefully the better pitcher on
(16:30):
the bump. So I'm going to back to raising
this one guys. I got a -130 bet MGM, but shop
around some books now -135 S guardians, Yankees and rays.
See if we can get two out of three and keep this little hot
streak going. So that about does it for
episode 335 of the All systems Go sports betting podcast
powered by rhythm. This is the part of the pod
(16:52):
where we wrap things up. And I always start first by
saying thank you. Thank you for taking the time
out of your day, out of your busy lives during the dog days
of summer to tune in to sweat the pod with me to grind the
sharp data-driven breakdowns andhopefully cash some tickets
along the way. Obviously, we want to win every
play we talk about, but I alwaysmention with the pod, it's in
the the bio description, the fact that we're really trying to
(17:13):
teach a model like, you know, wepick three games a day, but
there could be other games that you play that you incorporate
some of these tips and strategies to help you identify
a good sharp bet. But if you do enjoy this pod #1
thank you and keep listening. But #2 any chance you could give
it a five star review? That'd be very much appreciated
on Spotify or iTunes. If you want to leave a nice
(17:34):
comment under the review sectionor you would maybe want to
recommend it to a friend or click the follow button, that
also be fantastic. Next, if you enjoy this style of
betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp, contrarian betting.
Not betting based upon what we think or want or hope will
happen are biases, but betting on based upon what the market is
telling us. Trying to be with the sharps,
(17:55):
trying to be against the public,trying to beat the closing line.
Trying to look at splits and system matches.
Making bets based on our head and not our heart.
Based upon what the numbers are telling us, not what our gut
instinct is telling us. If this style of betting has
appealed to you, you want to learn more about data-driven
betting, you have someone in your life who could use some
data-driven tips. I would love for you guys to go
to Amazon.com and buy one or both of my books.
(18:19):
If you are literally just getting started, brand new to
sports betting, then my first book, The Everything Guide to
Sports Betting is great. It's got all the breakdowns of
how lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
movement, how to locate sharp action, how to go contrarian,
How to place a bet in person or online, How to shop for the best
line, How to set up a bankroll management plan.
But I would also love for you topre-order.
(18:40):
You know what, I got to stop saying that there's no more
pre-orders. You can just go out and go out
and buy it. Go to Amazon.com and type in the
NFL sharp betting playbook came out yesterday.
Guys, I'm still riding the wave.What a great day Yesterday was a
little 3 and O sweep in the debut of the book number one
overall, but let's keep it number one overall.
If you would be so kind, I wouldlove for you guys to order a
(19:02):
copy of the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook and hopefully get a leg
up, get ready for the NFL seasonand then you can bring the
Everything guide or the Sharp Betting Playbook to the sports
book and I'll sign them for you.I'll buy a beer or ginger ale.
We'll get some nachos. We'll sweat some games together.
How does that sound? Sounds pretty good to me.
I remember 5 star reviews. That'll be great.
Very much appreciated as well onAmazon next.
(19:24):
Have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Real yet?
My two favorite sports betting apps Rhythm, incredible game
game backed AI models for game bets and player props.
We got MLB and WNBA right now, but we do have college football
that just went live with the predictions.
Pretty soon we'll have NFL week 1 popping up and we do have an
announcement coming. Pretty something pretty exciting
(19:45):
involving myself in rhythm as wehave another have another call
tomorrow to just get everything squared away, but go download
rhythm and then also go downloadjuice reel.
This is this is the part of the pod where I'm going to pass the
hat tip your podcast host, if you enjoy this pod, it's free.
It cost you nothing. If you've gone 6 and over the
last couple days, you know what you should do.
You should sign up to get the all systems go official best bet
(20:07):
picks from the Juice Reel sportsbetting app.
That's the only place they're posted.
You can only get the plays by listening to the pod or
supporting the pod and getting them right on your app for $4.99
a week. That's literally 5 bucks or it's
literally 499, but you know whatI mean.
It's 5 bucks, doesn't cost a lot.
You'll support the pod, you'll get the plays early.
(20:27):
You also get the robo Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush
indicators, the arbitrage plays the shop for the best line
futures. Sync up your sports books to the
app. All available when you download
juice reel. So download rhythm and download
juice reel and you'll be off andrunning with two more
data-driven tools to add to yourdata-driven toolkit.
Next, do you have a live odds page?
(20:48):
If you don't, you need one. You got to know if you're going
to be a data-driven sports better.
What are the games being played today?
What are the start times? I need live scoring when the
games get going. I need live in game wagering
odds that update after every pitch.
Most of all, I need to track themarket.
What are the what are the line open at?
You know what is it currently? How how is the line move?
Pull up the line history shop for the best price, pick off the
(21:10):
best numbers identify steam get pop up notifications for
injuries and final scores. You can get all of this within
odds logic live odds page. So I'd love for you guys to give
it a shot. All you got to do is go to
oddslogic.com/josh 123. Make sure you do the slash Josh
123 at the end. That'll give you a 7 day free
(21:30):
trial and 50% off your first month of service.
And if you like it, it's only 99bucks a month if you want to
keep it. So that about does it for
episode 335 of the ASG pod. As always guys, I'll leave you
with two final thoughts. One, whether I see you at the
Borgata and Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook
of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in
Connecticut, at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park,
(21:52):
Casino, MGM Springfield or the Nash and my Neck of the Woods.
Or, of course, out in the desertwhere the true grinders get
down, where Billy Walter sends his number runners, where the
lowest juice possible is found at the South Point.
Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
swimming pool. When you cash a big ticket at
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me
and we're just going to, we're going to pop open the janitor's
(22:13):
closet, bust out a broom, do a little Fred Astaire dance on the
sports book floor, show me a Padres ticket, a Brewers ticket,
a Seattle Mariners ticket, 6 andO, our last six guys.
Let's keep it rolling here. First one's on me, next one's on
you, and we'll sweat the Guardians, Yanks, and Rays
tonight. So as always, guys, whether
we're three and O or O and three, six and O or O and 6:00,
(22:34):
somewhere in the middle, hot, cold again, betting is easy when
you're hot. It's really difficult when
you're cold because you know, it's an emotional game.
But we can never get too high when we're doing well and never
get too low when we're struggling.
You got to stick to the model, stick to the blueprint,
disciplined with our bankroll management and just play the
system matches. Avoid the games that got red
flags. Get down on the games that check
(22:54):
off our boxes, which at this point you might know are games
that have simultaneously the opportunity to bet against the
public, be with the house, be with the pros, flat bet, avoid
parlays and get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
to be OK long term. So have a great Wednesday,
everybody. We do have some college, not
college football, but NFL pre season for tomorrow.
(23:16):
And you know what? If you haven't done it yet, go
buy a copy of the NFL sharp betting playbook.
Let's keep it number one overallguys.
But of course, have a great night and I'll see you back
tomorrow for a Thirsty Thursday edition.
That'll be episode 336 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
(23:36):
great Wednesday night.
Hello, and welcome to episode 335 of the All Systems Go Sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Wednesday. Happy hump day, guys.
(00:39):
We are halfway through our work week and oh what a day it was
yesterday. I'll give you the the overall
reason why it was a great day and then reason that was also a
great day. The first up was the fact that
we had another sweep of the board. 3 and O + 2.38 units, 6
and O. Our last six pod plays did have
a nice one with Seattle 1 Nothing.
(01:00):
Yesterday. All we needed was one run and
then the the Mariners were able to lock that down and get that
one. Nothing.
Win the Brew Crew. Oh my God, have you seen the
team hotter than the Brewers laying -125 they went 14 to
nothing roughing up Paul Skeens and then a late night sweat with
the Padres winning 5 to 1. Had another great great dog
(01:20):
divisional dog line move there in in favor of the pods.
So a nice little 3 and O yesterday plus 2.38 units, A6
and O around 5 units over the last couple days.
And I I would argue you know whywe're hot right now?
Because there's something going on with the gambling gods in the
sports betting world. Because this big hot stretch has
coincided with the release of mysecond book, Barry in the lead
(01:41):
today, guys. But the NFL sharp betting
playbook debuted yesterday came out for everyone to to read and
get their hands on. You can get the paperback copy
old school if you're at a beach or like reading a book.
Do people still read books? I hope they do because I just
wrote my second one. But then you can also get the
audio book if you're the type ofperson that wants to listen to
it in the car or maybe listen toit when you're while you're
(02:02):
making dinner or maybe you won'ttake the dog for a walk.
You want to put some headphones in the audio book as well as
paperback. And you know what was even
better about yesterday's debut? We went straight to number one,
baby. If you look at the Amazon best
seller list in the category of sports gambling, we are #1 So
what an incredible day it was yesterday.
I want to thank all of you who have purchased the book, whether
(02:26):
it's a pre-order or you picked it up yesterday, but it is fully
available completely. And again, now's the time where
it's really kind of the dog daysof summer.
We're grinding baseball, obviously, but football is it's
about to get crazy around here, guys.
So if you wanted to support the team, if you wanted to really
more importantly, not just, you know, support your podcast host
and your author over here, but get some benefit to you by being
(02:47):
able to brush up on how to bet the NFL.
There's still time to bet some win totals.
I'll have a final batch of all my futures bets.
We'll talk about that prior to Week 1.
But then of course, how to bet pre season.
Already looking at NFL Week 1 win totals.
We still got to hit on divisional bet, stuff like that,
but it's a great refresher to get you excited for the football
season. So thank you for making it
(03:09):
number one. I can't believe it.
Number one on Amazon. I also wanted to make a small
request if you did purchase the book, you guys have already been
tweeting me a little, little little photo of the book and I
would love for you guys to continue to do that.
My buddy Da Rush did it. I want to give a quick shout out
to everyone who has tweeted out a picture of the the NFL sharp
betting playbook. So we got my buddy Derouche
(03:31):
Bears nation living the dream Vegas, Mitch Bossy had the
Montag group. My agent tweeted out A at as
smart wad love that handle therehorses in hockey, my buddy Andy
Gresh, Willie Tomlinson, my buddy Mike Fedotowski, Mike
Barton, as well as triumph books.
(03:51):
And again, all you guys have been tweeting a photo of it.
Keep it coming because I will retweet you and I love seeing
the book like in terms of like people holding it or at their
desk or in front of something cool.
So keep it rolling here. Tweet me a copy or or screenshot
or a photo of you with the book.And then also I'm going to ask
for as many five star reviews onAmazon as possible because we're
(04:12):
number one right now. But really we want to have the
strongest five star reviews. I've already got one under the
belt. But I want you guys, if you
wouldn't mind to spend a couple minutes, give the the NFL sharp
Betting Playbook A5 star review on Amazon and then nice little
blurb. Maybe you say, hey, I really
enjoyed Josh's first book. This one's even better.
Like the section on betting systems or I had no bankroll
(04:35):
management. I really enjoyed the section on
bankroll management or not parlaying or I'm brand new to
betting and provided me a blueprint, whatever it may be. 5
star reviews with, with some couple, it all takes a sentence
or two. If you want to go more in depth,
hey, that's even better. But seriously guys, we're we
debuted #1 Can you believe that?I'm pretty proud of it and it
just goes to show the thirst, I would say for data-driven
(04:57):
betting. Sports betting is getting
legalized pretty much everywhereyou look except for ironically
the big states, California, Texas and Florida.
But I think there's a thirst forbetting and people realize
number one, they think betting is easy.
They find out that it's hard andthen number 2, they realize I
can't just throw darts. I can't just bet on what I think
will happen. I need a blueprint to attack.
(05:17):
Obviously the number one sport here, the NFL, but betting in
general and that's what the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook does.
So thank you for purchasing it. If you haven't done yet, please
order a copy from Amazon.com. Tweet me your pictures of the
book and also five star reviews with some some little blurbs.
That would be super, super cool of you guys as well.
So that being said, six and O I'm not looking for another 3
(05:39):
and O, but I'll take a 2IN1 eke out of winning day.
But we're going to get right back to do what we love to do,
which is betting on Major LeagueBaseball because pretty soon,
you know, we got August, we got September, we'll have the
playoffs. But baseball's, you know,
there's still a good chunk left,but I want to embrace all these
baseball days we have because they're not going to be here
forever. So that being said, three pack
overall to guy today, guys, let's waste no more time and
(06:02):
dive right in. First one on the board for me.
Let's go to Cleveland where the Guardians are hosting the Miami
Marlins 6:40 PM Eastern Time, first pitch.
So setting the stage for this interleague match up, the guards
who are 62 and 56 and now on theheels of Detroit.
Or are they 5-6 games back in the Yale Central, which is crazy
because they're like 15 games back a month ago.
(06:23):
But anyway, they won the opener last night against the Marlins,
4 to 3. Came through as a -135 home
favorite pitching match up for tonight.
Looks pretty good. The Marlins, who are 57 and 62,
they're going to go with the ready Yuri Perez.
He's four and three with a 3.25 ERA.
He'll be opposed by Guardians righty Gavin Williams, who's
seven and four with a 3.17 ERA. More on Williams in a second.
(06:45):
If you remember his last start, this line opened with Cleveland
around a -, 120 -, 125 home favorite.
Miami around a + 105 Rd. Dog and sharps.
You're saying let's ride the hothand here?
Guardians I believe are 16 and seven since the All Star break.
But we have seen Cleveland get steamed up.
They open -120 -, 125 now they're up to -135.
(07:07):
I jumped on the guards at -135 again, but shop around.
Some books are closer to -140. We have some pretty good splits
on Cleveland. Number one at DraftKings, 70% of
bets, 82% of dollars, and then at Circa, 67% of bets, 80% of
dollars. So both DraftKings and Circa
with some good pro and Joe splits low bets higher dollars
(07:29):
in favor of the home chalk. Now, once it's the match that
lights up for me on Cleveland, which I really like, if you're a
short home favorite -140 or less, you're getting line
movement and you're coming off awin.
Since July 1st, those teams havebeen really good, 53 and 3262%,
but because of the short chalk price, it's actually a 12% ROI.
(07:49):
The Guardians in particular havebeen pretty good in this spot.
When they are a favorite, they're the third best chalk
team in baseball, 33 and 1964 percent, 9% ROI.
And when they are a favorite against a below 500 club,
they've typically done well taking care of business.
They're 27 and 1466 percent, 12%ROI.
(08:09):
Cleveland would have that interleague favorite betting
system value, so lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN
quote the better team and we also have Cleveland with some
correlative betting value. So this game is a very low total
of 8, some books even down to 7 1/2 and we have Cleveland
obviously favored. So lines moving further to
Cleveland, it's a low total. Typically that bodes well
(08:30):
because you would expect the fewer amount of run scored to
come from more likely the betterteam was expected to win.
I mentioned Gavin Williams, I learned the hard way.
I bet against Williams his last start out.
I remember I was on the Mets, that was a podcast play and
Gavin Williams almost had a no hitter.
I believe he took a no hitter into the 9th and maybe with one
or two outs he gave up a home run.
I think DeSoto, but still he hasa 0.61 ERA in two August starts.
(08:55):
He's only giving up one run in 14.2 and he's pitched.
He's giving up two earned runs or less in four straight starts
and at home he's been pretty good five and two 2.77 ERA.
So I want to back Williams. He's really throwing the ball
well right now. On the other hand, Yuri Perez
got good stats overall, but lasttwo starts, 3.97 ERA, five runs
(09:15):
allowed in 11.1 innings pitched.And at home, the guy's been
great. Two point O 8 ERA, but on the
road, 4 point O1. So he's struggled a little bit
in August and he's been worse onthe road than at home and he's
on the road tonight. Last 10 Guardians have played
very well. They're eight and two over the
last 10 games. They have a 2.87 team ERA.
They're pitching very well. Marlins, meanwhile, 3 and seven
(09:37):
over their last 10 ERA of a little bit over 6.
Then lastly, a little bit of home Rd.
Nothing crazy, but Cleveland is 30 and 27 at home.
Miami is 29 and 31 on the road. So we have a line move toward
Cleveland. We have a really good pro and
Joe bet split. We got some good system matches
here. Correlative betting,
interleague, favorite value. I lead it here with the
(09:58):
guardian. So let's see if we can hopefully
start the night off with a guardians when they've been red
hot. Let's keep it going, let's go
Gavin Williams. I got Cleveland -135 at Bet MGM,
next one for you. Let's go right back to the
Bronx. Let's get some New York style
pizza. Let's go swit the Yankees 7:05
PM Eastern Time, first pitch theTwins at the aforementioned New
(10:19):
York Yankees. Now the Yankees have taken the
first two games of this three-game set.
Yankees are 64 and 56 on the year.
They won the opener six to two. Remember, he played in the other
night, came through as a -180 home favorite and they won again
yesterday, 9:00 to 1:00 as a - 215 home favorite.
So pitching matchup for tonight,Twins who are 56 and 63.
(10:41):
They're going to go with the righty Joe Ryan, the last man
standing as everyone else has been traded.
He's been good 11 and five 2.79 ERA.
Yankees meanwhile, going with Cam Schlitter, the righty one
and two 4.38 ERA. Now this game open New York, NY
around a -. 125 home favorite Minnesota around a plus one O 5
(11:01):
Rd. dog. And you would think on paper,
Joe Ryan greater than Cam Schlitter, right?
However, the market is fading, Ryan, and moving further up
toward the Yankees because the Yankees have gotten steamed up
-125 up to -150 I got Yankees -150 at FanDuel.
Shop around though, because somebooks are closer to -155.
Now, if we look at the splits inparticular in Vegas out at
(11:23):
Circa, only 39% of bets are on the Yankees, but it accounts for
a little more than half the money.
So that would be a sharp contrarian, low bets, higher
dollar split telling us those bigger wise guy wagers are on.
The Yankees do have some system matches on New York favorites
off a win with a winning record getting at least $0.05 of line
movement and they also made the playoffs the previous year.
(11:45):
That system is 140 and 6867 percent, 5% ROI this season.
Another system here is a non division home favorite -160 or
less off a win getting line movement.
They're 101 and 6262 percent, 9%ROI.
So 2 good matchups or two systemmatches in favor of New York.
(12:05):
The Yankees would have that non division favorite value.
So lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote.
The better team was expected to win.
Yankees bats have kind of come alive this series.
They struggled prior. Let's hope that continues
because the Yankees do have the better offense.
Hitting 250 on the year, 190 home runs, 611 runs scored.
Twins hitting 239 only 140 homers, 497 runs scored.
(12:29):
And lastly a little bit of home Rd.
Minnesota has really struggled on the road, 24 and 38.
Yankees pretty good at home, 37 and 24.
So big steam toward New York again.
Joe Ryan's a good pitcher. This almost reminds me a little
bit of the the Brewers and Paul Skeens last night where Skeens,
great pitcher, but the line was moving a little bit further
toward Milwaukee. Same sort of thing here.
(12:52):
So hopefully the Yankees offensecomes to play once again.
We got line movement, really good system matches here.
Home Rd. splits, better offense.I lead it with the Yankees.
I got New York at -150 last bit of the night.
Anybody want to stay up late? Sweat this one with me. 10 O
5:00 PM Eastern Time, the Tampa Bay Rays visiting the Athletics,
(13:12):
not the Oakland Athletics, technically the Sacramento
Athletics, but pretty soon they'll be in Vegas.
Cannot wait for that because then I'll be able to go visit
Vegas and I'll plan it around when the Red Sox visit the Vegas
A's, which sounds pretty cool ifyou ask me.
And also I believe it's a eithera tractable roof or half roof or
something like that because it gets very hot out there in the
summer and you need a you need aroof out there and keep it cool.
(13:35):
But anyway, this is the rubber match of a three-game set.
The Rays, who are 58 and 63 on the year they won the opener 7
to 4 came through as a - 110 Rd.pick em.
Then we saw the A's who are 54 and 68.
They went and bounced back with a six.
Nothing win yesterday came through as a - 110 home pick em.
So both games have been pick em games.
However, for this one here tonight, we got the rays going
(13:57):
with the righty Drew Rasmussen, who's nine and five with a 2.66
ERA. More on him in a second.
He's been really good all year long.
The A's meanwhile, going with the righty JT Ginn.
He's two and four with a 4.39 ERA.
So what do you see across the market here?
Well, this game opened Tampa Bayaround a -, 120 Rd. favorite.
So it wasn't a pick em game, butit was slightly toward Tampa A's
(14:20):
around a plus one O 5 home dog. And we've seen this line move
further toward the Tampa Bay Rays.
Rays have now gotten steamed up -120 up to -130 I jumped on rays
-130 at Bet MGM. Shop around.
A lot of books are at 1:35 rightnow.
But aside from this line move, some good splits coming down on
Tampa Bay. They're getting 61% of money
(14:40):
line bets, 74% of money line dollars at at DraftKings and
then at Circa only half the tickets 50% but 90% of the
money. So both books are showing a
pretty good low bets higher dollar split, especially at
circa with only half the tickets.
But nine out of $10 system matchhere.
That lit up for me on Tampa. If you are a road favorite and
(15:01):
you just got shut out the previous game, those teams in
the next game have gone 28 and 1664 percent, 11% ROI.
Tampa would have that non division favorite value.
So lack of familiarity hopefullybenefiting that quote UN quote
better team was expected to win,which would be Tampa here based
on the -130 price. I wanted to mention a little bit
more about Rasmussen, Rasmussen how we pronounce it.
(15:24):
But he has a 0.00 ERA in two August starts.
He's giving up zero runs in 11.1innings pitched.
He has given up two earned runs or less in seven straight starts
and he's four and O with a 2.85 ERA on the road.
So he's been good, good in August, really good his last
seven starts and good on the road.
Meanwhile, JT Ginn 6.75 ERA in two August starts, giving up
(15:48):
seven runs and 9.1 innings pitched.
He has a on the road he's respectable 3.29 ERA, but at
home 5.54 ERA. So I want to back Rasmussen,
Rasmussen and fade JT Ginn. Lastly, if this becomes a
bullpen game, we got to sweat it.
It is kind of a higher total 9 1/2, but the Rays do have the
(16:08):
better pen. Team ERA of 3.72 versus 5.11 for
the A's. That's the third worst in
baseball. So it's the rubber match of a
series. We've rotated win so far, but we
open with a favorite with Tampa.They become more of a favorite.
They got good splits. I really like the system match
again Rd. favorite after gettingshut out, winning 2/3 of the
time basically, as well as hopefully the better pitcher on
(16:30):
the bump. So I'm going to back to raising
this one guys. I got a -130 bet MGM, but shop
around some books now -135 S guardians, Yankees and rays.
See if we can get two out of three and keep this little hot
streak going. So that about does it for
episode 335 of the All systems Go sports betting podcast
powered by rhythm. This is the part of the pod
(16:52):
where we wrap things up. And I always start first by
saying thank you. Thank you for taking the time
out of your day, out of your busy lives during the dog days
of summer to tune in to sweat the pod with me to grind the
sharp data-driven breakdowns andhopefully cash some tickets
along the way. Obviously, we want to win every
play we talk about, but I alwaysmention with the pod, it's in
the the bio description, the fact that we're really trying to
(17:13):
teach a model like, you know, wepick three games a day, but
there could be other games that you play that you incorporate
some of these tips and strategies to help you identify
a good sharp bet. But if you do enjoy this pod #1
thank you and keep listening. But #2 any chance you could give
it a five star review? That'd be very much appreciated
on Spotify or iTunes. If you want to leave a nice
(17:34):
comment under the review sectionor you would maybe want to
recommend it to a friend or click the follow button, that
also be fantastic. Next, if you enjoy this style of
betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp, contrarian betting.
Not betting based upon what we think or want or hope will
happen are biases, but betting on based upon what the market is
telling us. Trying to be with the sharps,
(17:55):
trying to be against the public,trying to beat the closing line.
Trying to look at splits and system matches.
Making bets based on our head and not our heart.
Based upon what the numbers are telling us, not what our gut
instinct is telling us. If this style of betting has
appealed to you, you want to learn more about data-driven
betting, you have someone in your life who could use some
data-driven tips. I would love for you guys to go
to Amazon.com and buy one or both of my books.
(18:19):
If you are literally just getting started, brand new to
sports betting, then my first book, The Everything Guide to
Sports Betting is great. It's got all the breakdowns of
how lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
movement, how to locate sharp action, how to go contrarian,
How to place a bet in person or online, How to shop for the best
line, How to set up a bankroll management plan.
But I would also love for you topre-order.
(18:40):
You know what, I got to stop saying that there's no more
pre-orders. You can just go out and go out
and buy it. Go to Amazon.com and type in the
NFL sharp betting playbook came out yesterday.
Guys, I'm still riding the wave.What a great day Yesterday was a
little 3 and O sweep in the debut of the book number one
overall, but let's keep it number one overall.
If you would be so kind, I wouldlove for you guys to order a
(19:02):
copy of the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook and hopefully get a leg
up, get ready for the NFL seasonand then you can bring the
Everything guide or the Sharp Betting Playbook to the sports
book and I'll sign them for you.I'll buy a beer or ginger ale.
We'll get some nachos. We'll sweat some games together.
How does that sound? Sounds pretty good to me.
I remember 5 star reviews. That'll be great.
Very much appreciated as well onAmazon next.
(19:24):
Have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Real yet?
My two favorite sports betting apps Rhythm, incredible game
game backed AI models for game bets and player props.
We got MLB and WNBA right now, but we do have college football
that just went live with the predictions.
Pretty soon we'll have NFL week 1 popping up and we do have an
announcement coming. Pretty something pretty exciting
(19:45):
involving myself in rhythm as wehave another have another call
tomorrow to just get everything squared away, but go download
rhythm and then also go downloadjuice reel.
This is this is the part of the pod where I'm going to pass the
hat tip your podcast host, if you enjoy this pod, it's free.
It cost you nothing. If you've gone 6 and over the
last couple days, you know what you should do.
You should sign up to get the all systems go official best bet
(20:07):
picks from the Juice Reel sportsbetting app.
That's the only place they're posted.
You can only get the plays by listening to the pod or
supporting the pod and getting them right on your app for $4.99
a week. That's literally 5 bucks or it's
literally 499, but you know whatI mean.
It's 5 bucks, doesn't cost a lot.
You'll support the pod, you'll get the plays early.
(20:27):
You also get the robo Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush
indicators, the arbitrage plays the shop for the best line
futures. Sync up your sports books to the
app. All available when you download
juice reel. So download rhythm and download
juice reel and you'll be off andrunning with two more
data-driven tools to add to yourdata-driven toolkit.
Next, do you have a live odds page?
(20:48):
If you don't, you need one. You got to know if you're going
to be a data-driven sports better.
What are the games being played today?
What are the start times? I need live scoring when the
games get going. I need live in game wagering
odds that update after every pitch.
Most of all, I need to track themarket.
What are the what are the line open at?
You know what is it currently? How how is the line move?
Pull up the line history shop for the best price, pick off the
(21:10):
best numbers identify steam get pop up notifications for
injuries and final scores. You can get all of this within
odds logic live odds page. So I'd love for you guys to give
it a shot. All you got to do is go to
oddslogic.com/josh 123. Make sure you do the slash Josh
123 at the end. That'll give you a 7 day free
(21:30):
trial and 50% off your first month of service.
And if you like it, it's only 99bucks a month if you want to
keep it. So that about does it for
episode 335 of the ASG pod. As always guys, I'll leave you
with two final thoughts. One, whether I see you at the
Borgata and Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook
of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in
Connecticut, at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park,
(21:52):
Casino, MGM Springfield or the Nash and my Neck of the Woods.
Or, of course, out in the desertwhere the true grinders get
down, where Billy Walter sends his number runners, where the
lowest juice possible is found at the South Point.
Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
swimming pool. When you cash a big ticket at
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me
and we're just going to, we're going to pop open the janitor's
(22:13):
closet, bust out a broom, do a little Fred Astaire dance on the
sports book floor, show me a Padres ticket, a Brewers ticket,
a Seattle Mariners ticket, 6 andO, our last six guys.
Let's keep it rolling here. First one's on me, next one's on
you, and we'll sweat the Guardians, Yanks, and Rays
tonight. So as always, guys, whether
we're three and O or O and three, six and O or O and 6:00,
(22:34):
somewhere in the middle, hot, cold again, betting is easy when
you're hot. It's really difficult when
you're cold because you know, it's an emotional game.
But we can never get too high when we're doing well and never
get too low when we're struggling.
You got to stick to the model, stick to the blueprint,
disciplined with our bankroll management and just play the
system matches. Avoid the games that got red
flags. Get down on the games that check
(22:54):
off our boxes, which at this point you might know are games
that have simultaneously the opportunity to bet against the
public, be with the house, be with the pros, flat bet, avoid
parlays and get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
to be OK long term. So have a great Wednesday,
everybody. We do have some college, not
college football, but NFL pre season for tomorrow.
(23:16):
And you know what? If you haven't done it yet, go
buy a copy of the NFL sharp betting playbook.
Let's keep it number one overallguys.
But of course, have a great night and I'll see you back
tomorrow for a Thirsty Thursday edition.
That'll be episode 336 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
(23:36):
great Wednesday night.
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