August 14, 2025 • 24 mins
In Episode 336, Josh dishes out a 3-pack of MLB plays for Thursday.
Josh's new book "The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook"is OUT NOW!
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:19):
Hello and welcome to episode 336of the All Systems Go sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I am your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Thirsty Thursday as our work week rolls on.
(00:40):
Almost coming to a close here guys.
And you know what? I woke up today thinking there
were two NFL pre season games. So I was already capping the
games for tomorrow, which if youhaven't noticed, we have
Tennessee and Atlanta. It's a 7:00 game.
Big move toward Tennessee -3 1/2up to 5 1/2, but it's coming
back down toward 5. So I picked off a + 5 1/2 with
Atlanta, then also KC Seattle 10:00 game tomorrow open Kansas
(01:04):
City -2 1/2 on the road we flip to -3 first Seattle.
And I was looking at a money line play on Seattle with Kansas
City most likely going to rest alot of their guys.
And then I even wrote a sharp report about the two matchups
tonight. And then someone tweeted me and
they said aren't those games fortomorrow?
And I was like yes you are right, those games are for
tomorrow. So hope you woke up today
(01:25):
knowing which day and which games are being played.
But either way, guys, we do havea very small baseball slate,
only seven games overall, but I do have a three pack of plays
for you. I got a couple money lines and
also have a total, a weather based total with some really
good juice liability as well as a sharp mush edge from our
friends at Juice Real. So we're going to look through
our three pack. Try to cash some tickets here,
(01:47):
guys, try to go 2 and 1 eek out a winning day.
Now I want to mention real quick, we've now had the NFL
Sharp Betting Playbook live and available, real and spectacular.
You can pick it up anywhere, Amazon.com or your local Barnes
and Noble. But it's not a couple days.
And I want to thank you guys because we are still number one.
We're still #1 Amazon in the category of sports gambling, we
(02:10):
are #1 so it's great to see. I think I want to thank you guys
all again for buying a copy. Continue to tweet me your photos
of you holding the book. I love seeing those and I also
want to give a shout out to those of you who have already
put up a five star review on Amazon.
Now I want I'm going to be I'm going to ask you guys a favor.
Not only am I going to ask you to buy the book and support the
(02:31):
team and get some great sports betting data as we prepare for
the NFL season, but also could you give it a five star review
and a nice little blurb on Amazon?
Because one thing that I learnedfrom my first book is that the
more five star reviews, the moreverified purchases that leave a
little blurb talking about what they enjoyed about the book.
That really helps us to stay number one and continue to get
(02:53):
more views and click. So it's really important that we
get these these five star reviews.
And so we've already gotten 3. I want to give it a shout out to
Amy T5 star review titled my sport betting husband's review.
So shout out to Amy T doing somework for her husband but she put
It's a smart and practical sports betting guide that
belongs on every sports better shelf.
(03:15):
My husband loves Josh in his book and really brings all his
expertise and logic to life. Highly recommend quote or quote
UN quote written by my husband so appreciate it.
Amy T and her awesome husband Emily Allison Five star review 5
out of five she put Josh Applebaum is the man and this is
a great book. This book is great for beginners
or experienced gamblers. Boom love it.
(03:37):
Kindle customer Five star review.
Must read loaded with useful information, short and sweet.
So I'm telling you guys it'll take you 2 seconds, but if you
do enjoy the book, you want to help me to continue to keep this
momentum going as we're still number one.
I'm loving that please five starreview short little blurb and it
can be literally as simple as loaded with useful information
(03:58):
again, 4 words, but it means a lot.
So thank you all for buying the book.
Remember, you can get on Amazon,buy it for a friend, get as many
copies as you want. But I really do appreciate you
guys and we're off to a very, very good start.
Now, aside from good, good opening here for the book,
unfortunately not all good things can last forever because
(04:19):
we were six and O to start the week in MLB.
Went one and two yesterday -1.2 units.
The Rays came through, which wasnice.
That was a late night sweat witha road favorite non division
line move. But the Yankees lost 4 to 1.
They're up 1, nothing and blew it.
And the Guardians, Gavin Williams almost threw no hitter,
his last start out, his start out, he got rolled and the
Guardians lost 13 to 4, got absolutely crushed and at one
(04:42):
point the game was tied 4 to 4, then completely let go of the
rope. So Guardians and Yankees let us
down, but we did get a winner there with the Rays.
So let's see if we can start a new winning streak here for
today. So that being said, as I
mentioned, it's a very small slate in baseball, but I do have
3 plays for you, 2 money lines and one total.
We don't bet a lot of totals, but this one jumped out to me
(05:02):
for a variety of reasons. So let's waste no more time.
I do want to get this pot out a little bit earlier than usual
because there is a day game thatcaught my eye.
Let's look at a three O 7:00 PM Eastern Time first pitch Chicago
Cubs visiting the Toronto Blue Jays.
Now this is an interleague rubber match here the Blue Jays
who are 70 and 51. They won the opener 5 to one
(05:22):
came through as a -, 125 home favorite.
Then we saw the Cubbies who are 68 and 51.
They bounce back with a four to one win yesterday, cashing as a
+ 115 Rd. dog. So in this late afternoon series
finale again, three O 7:00 PM Eastern Time first pitch, the
Cubs are going to go with the lefty Matthew Boyd.
He's 11 and five with a 2.45 ERA.
(05:43):
And the Blue Jays are going to go with the fellow going with
the righty veteran Max Scherzer,2 and two, 4.2 on ERA.
So what do you see across the market here?
Well, this isn't the biggest line move in the world, but I
did notice that this game openedat basically a pick em.
It was pretty much -110 both sides, some books even opened a
slight favorite with Toronto at home.
(06:04):
But we've now seen this line flip toward the Chicago Cubs,
going from basically a pick em to now a -115 Rd. favorite and a
couple books even touching -120.So again, it was a pick em game,
even slight Toronto favorite at some shops.
Now he flipped not dog to fave, but pick em to fave in favor of
the Chicago Cubs. Now to continue this cap here,
(06:27):
what I really like is the Cubbies bet splits.
If you look at DraftKings, the Cubs are getting 54% of money
line bets, but 62% of money linedollars.
So really good low bets, higher dollar split coming down here in
favor of, of course, the Cubs inthis spot.
But then also if we look at Circa, Circa's got another
(06:48):
really good split toward the Cubs, 49% of bets but 79% of
dollars. So both DraftKings and Circa low
bets, higher dollars aligning with the move here toward the
Cubs. Now the Cubs would have some
value as an interleague favorite, lack of familiarity
benefiting, quote UN quote, the better team.
I'm going to hope Boyd pitch as well.
More on him in a second. But then also that the Cubs can
(07:09):
get to Scherzer because the Cubson the year have the better
bats. They're hitting or they have hit
169 home runs, they've scored 604 runs.
Blue Jays have hit 139 home runs, only scored 589 runs.
So not a huge discrepancy, but more explosive bats here on the
Cubs. You look at Boyd, remember they
picked him up. He was at one point with Detroit
(07:30):
and then the Guardians, but he'sbeen a big, big pick up for the
Cubs. He has a 2.25 ERA and two August
starts. He's given up 0 earned runs in
four of his last six starts. That's pretty darn good.
And also in day games, he's pitched pretty well.
Four and one 1.66 ERA. Cubs have the slight edge in the
bullpen as well. If we got to sweat this thing
(07:52):
late, they have an ERA of 3.83 versus 4 point O 7 for Toronto.
And I did notice some smart money hit this under.
So you had a lot of books open 81/2.
It's down to 8. It's just under.
I think one shop is even at 7 1/2.
But it's notable that you have the line kind of dropping toward
a lower scoring game and simultaneously moving toward the
favorite. Hopefully that's a, you know, 5
(08:13):
to 1 win here by the Cubs today.We had all up guys.
Bit of an early match up here, but we have seen a move toward
the Cubs. Really good bet splits on the
Cubs. I'm going to take a shot on
Chicago in this one. I got Chicago -114 at DraftKings
again, shop around. Most books -115 even -120 and a
little little gas to the fire here.
(08:34):
A little cherry on top. I popped open the Juice Rail app
and one of the two Robo Jackson best bet picks.
And if you're unfamiliar, Robo Jackson is an AI bot.
He puts out two best bets based on all the data at Juice Rail
each day at noon. And one of the picks is on the
Cubs. So I'll take that.
Let's go cub these guys next. Let's now go to the Big Apple.
(08:57):
7:10 PM Eastern Time, First pitch, the Atlanta Braves
visiting the New York Mets. Now this is the rubber match of
a three-game set as well. We have the Mets coming in 64
and 56. They dominated the opener 13 to
5, came through as a -145 home favorite.
Then the Braves who are 52 and 68, they clawed back with an 11
to six win yesterday, came through as a + 170 home dog and
(09:21):
pour one out for anyone who might have had the the Mets
yesterday because they were up 6to nothing and then lost 11 to
6. So man that that's a tough one
there. Now pitching match up for
tonight, Braves are going to go with the righty Bryce Elder.
He's 4:00 and 9:00 with a 6.12 ERA.
Mets meanwhile going with fellowrighty Cody Senga, he's seven
and four with a 2.3 O ERA. Now what have we seen across the
(09:44):
market here? Well, this game opened pretty
big favorite with the the New York Mets -185 Atlanta around a
+ 165 Rd. dog. And it's notable to me that even
though the Mets are really struggled recently and they blew
a huge lead yesterday, the fact they open has a pretty big
favorite. And again, Atlanta pretty juicy
dog. But the line hasn't dropped
(10:04):
toward Atlanta. No, it's gone further toward the
Mets. Mets have now gotten steamed up
-185 up to -190 some shops now even as high as -195 I jumped on
the Mets at -190 at Bet MGM. And of course, every bet, not
just a big favorite on a money line price, but every bet here,
of course is Bettris first bet to win.
(10:25):
So if you are playing Mets with me, you're not risking 1.9 units
to win one unit that'll be betting to win.
You're just risking your one unit trying to get a little more
than 1/2 unit back. Now to make you feel a little
bit better about this Mets play #1 we're buying low on a on a
team that struggled. So you kind of have that in your
back pocket. But also, if you look at Circa
out in Vegas, 40% of bets are onthe Mets, but it accounts for
(10:47):
nearly 60% of the dollars. So it tells us we got a low
bets, higher dollar split here in favor of the Mets, which
aligns with the line move. Then we have quite a few systems
on the Mets. So Thursday, home favorites -175
or more. They're 19 and six this year, 76
percent, 9% ROI. Home favorites who made the
playoffs the previous season, playing opponent who also made
(11:10):
the playoffs the previous season.
That system is 109 and 6862% with a 4% ROI.
Favorites -190 or more. Playing an opponent who made the
playoffs the previous year. Those teams are 41 and 1672
percent, 6% ROI. So quite a few matches here on
the Mets. Mets would have the more
explosive bats. They've hit 154 home runs,
(11:32):
scored 532 runs. Overall, Braves have hit 135
homers, scored 515 runs. So slight edge offensively
toward the Mets and then New York, they're 35 and 1866
percent, 5% ROI as a home favorite.
That's the fifth best chalk teamat home in baseball.
And when they are a home favorite playing opponent below
(11:53):
500, they're 19 and 676 percent,14% ROI as a home favorite.
Cody Senga has been a pretty good to pick up coming over from
Japan couple years ago. But the Mets are 13 and five and
his eighteen starts, he's five and one with a 2.42 ERA at home
this year. Also, you look at the Braves and
(12:13):
Elders, 19 starts, they're 7 and12 and he's given up 4 earned
runs or more and six of his lastnine starts.
So hopefully the Mets can get toElder here today.
By the way, on the road he's twoand five with a 5.61 ERA and
just home home Rd. in general, Mets are 39 and 22 at home.
The Braves are 22 and 38 on the road.
(12:35):
So they have struggled in this spot.
So you got all up here guys and all the Mets have struggled.
But this number kind of speaks volumes to me.
Like why are the Mets such a bigfavor if they've struggled so
much? Well, hopefully it's kind of a
Senga greater than elder spot. Hopefully if you if you have a
six nothing lead, you blow it and lose.
Give up 11 unanswered runs and lose 11-6.
(12:56):
Maybe you got some just revenge on your mind here hopefully for
today, which can also be a benefit.
But yeah, it all up here guys. I am going to late with the
Mets. Give me the Mets.
I got a -, 190 at Bet MGM last bat of the night.
This is a total. Let's look at the Detroit Tigers
visiting the Minnesota Twins. Now the Tigers come in 70 and 52
(13:19):
just took two out of three against the White Sox.
You know, the Twins 57 and 63 just dropped two of three
against the Yankees, but did avoid the sweep and got the win
there last night. Unfortunately, because I was on
the the New York Yankees, might you might have been to as well.
Now, looking toward the pitchingmatch up here, we have the lefty
ace Tarik Scooble. Scooble going.
I don't know if I mentioned thisis 7:40 PM Eastern Time, first
(13:42):
pitch, but Scooble is 11 and three, 2.35 ERA.
He'll be opposed by Bailey Ober.Four and seven, 5.16 ERA.
Now, in terms of the side, you know, it seems like an obvious
play to just take Detroit, but they've kind of been around -200
and pretty much stayed -200 theyeven dipped a little bit.
So that's a big number. And Publix all over Detroit here
(14:04):
in this spot, Tigers are gettinglike 86% of bets.
So really wasn't much for me on the money line, But the total
jumped out to me. I'm going to go under 7 1/2
here, guys. Here's my thought process.
One, if we look at the seven anda half, let's look at how the
juice has moved. It opens 7 1/2 basically -110 -,
115. Now you're 7 1/2 under -115 -,
(14:27):
120. So the juice has grown or we
like to say getting juiced up toward the under.
Is that an oxymoron? You're getting juiced up on the
under if you know what I'm saying.
But anyway, it's becoming a moreexpensive price to play the
under. So it tells me there's some
under liability here. Now the next angle is if we look
at the splits, they look pretty good toward the under.
At DraftKings, only 48% of bets,but 61% of dollars are on the
(14:51):
under. So low bets, higher dollar
split. We also have Detroit as a big
-200 favorite. So typically we always talk, you
know, fav low total, a dog high total.
But if you're a big favorite -200 low total of 7 1/2, fair
amount of expected run score, typically going to that better
team, you know, it's kind of a good sign where maybe it's a,
(15:11):
you know, 22, nothing game 4, nothing game 4 to 1, something
like that. Because historically, if you're
a big favorite, again, you're probably winning the game and
low total, maybe you're winning the game in a with a few amount
of expected run score. Now, the other angle for me is
the weather here. Now we may have to sweat a rain
(15:32):
delay. I was kind of looking at the the
forecast here at Target Field. It's going to be like mid 70s,
but there's going to be scattered showers.
But most importantly the wind isblowing in.
So the wind is blowing in prettygood here, about 10 to 15 mph
from right center. So hopefully the wind blowing in
will push some first row homers into warning track fly ball
(15:52):
outs. Then if we also look at in
general, overs, unders, now, I don't bet a ton of totals in
baseball. I feel like I have a better edge
with sides. And if you, you know, lay it,
lay it under and your bullpen blows it in the ninth, you know,
that's something that's kind of tough.
But anyway, in general this year, unders have been the
better bet. Unders are 52.1%.
(16:14):
Again, you're losing because you're not overcoming the juice,
but overs are 47.9%. So you've lost way more playing
overs than you have unders if you dig a little deeper.
When the total is 7 1/2 or less low scoring games, the public
seems to think or you can't really blame them.
Hey, only 7 1/2 low total, you know, take the over.
However, when the total is 7 half or less, the under is
(16:36):
actually 212 and 179. That's a 54% win rate with a
nearly 5% ROI. The twins are also 63 and 51 to
the under on the year. That's 55%.
That makes them the 9th best under team in baseball.
And then a little cherry on top,I popped open the Juice Reel app
and noticed a 19% sharp mush edge on the under.
(17:00):
So we have a good group of sharpwinning betters who have
downloaded Juice Reel synced up their books.
Also leaning under here, so you Add all up, School bulls a big
favorite, but we do have a low total.
It's been juiced up toward the under.
We got good splits. We got wind blowing in.
We have this spot of 7 1/2 or less doing pretty well this
year. And we also have a sharp mush
(17:20):
edge toward the under. So again, add it all up.
I'm going under under 7 1/2 and I got it at -115 at Bet MGM.
So Detroit, Minnesota, under 7 1/2, the Mets and the Cubs, See
if we can get 2 out of 3. Eek out a winning day.
So that about does it for episode 336 of the all systems
(17:41):
go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
start first by saying thank you.Thank you for taking the time
out of your day, out of your busy lives to pull up a chair to
the virtual bar and sweat some sharp data-driven breakdowns
with me. If you do enjoy this pod and you
want to give it a five star review on Spotify or iTunes,
leave a nice comment under the review section or click the
(18:03):
follow button or recommend the pod to a friend, you would make
my day and I'd very much appreciate that.
Next, if you enjoy the style of betting breakdown, data-driven,
sharp contrarian betting, focusing on what the market is
telling us, not what our innate biases are telling us in this.
In that case, if you enjoy and you've kind of been turned on to
the idea of tracking your live odds page, looking at line
(18:26):
movement, bet split system matches, you're making bets with
your head and not your heart. You're taking a contrarian
approach. If that's the case and you want
to learn more about data-driven betting or you know someone in
your life who could use some data-driven tips, then you know
what I'd love for you guys to do?
I'd love for you to go to Amazon.com and type in the
Everything Guide to Sports betting or the NFL Sharp Betting
Playbook. The Everything Guide is my first
(18:48):
book. It's great for brand new betters
really walks you through the data-driven process, how lines
are set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how
to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online,
how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
management plan, all included inthe everything guide to sports
betting. And then of course, my new book,
my baby is now two days old, butpretty amazing or I guess three
(19:10):
days old at this point. But I want to thank all of you
who have pre-ordered a copy or picked up a copy now that it's
widely available again, keep thekeep the five star reviews
coming in on on on Amazon, because that does mean a lot to
me. But I want to thank you guys and
continue to tweet me photos of you holding the book.
That's been really, really cool.I don't, you know, I'll give you
(19:31):
an RT retweet on that one. But if you want to pick one up,
either the everything guide or the NFL sharp betting playbook
or both. You don't really want to be a
hero. Guess what?
I'll meet you at the book. I'll sign them for you.
I'll buy a beer or ginger ale and I'll sweat some games
together. Sounds like sounds like a good
time to me Next, have you downloaded rhythm and juice reel
(19:52):
yet My two favorite sports betting apps.
They are great to add to your sports betting data-driven
toolkit. Rhythm great for their AI backed
models and predictions for game bets and player props.
Obviously they have MLB and WNBAlive right now, but they also
have college football that just went live in the app and pretty
soon we'll have NFL. So again, if you're if you're
looking to bet like a pro and look for discrepancy plays and
(20:16):
prop bets with good player prop.What are they called the power
trends? Those have really been doing
well also, but make sure you download rhythm and then also
you download juice reel. Juice reel is a another great
sports betting app. If you want to tip your podcast
host, download juice reel and goto buy sell bottom right corner,
(20:36):
search ASG under score podcast and then you can get the podcast
plays immediately. Once I bet them, I bet them at
my book. They go right to Juice Reel
because I've synced my books up.You're going to get those plays.
You can tail fade, do whatever you like, but that costs you
$4.99 a week. So for 5 bucks, hopefully you
feel like it's a decent tip for your podcast host.
(20:57):
And again, hopefully we'll beat some closing lines as well.
But you're also going to get theRobo Jackson best bet picks, the
sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays, the shop for
the best line futures, all available when you download
Juice Reel. So download Juice Reel, download
Rhythm, give him a five star review in the App Store and
he'll be off and running making sharp bets.
Next, do you have a live odds page?
(21:19):
You need a live odds page. I cannot stress it enough.
You got to know all the games that are being played that day,
all the bets you can possibly make or choose from.
You got to know the start times,the live scoring, the live in
game wagering odds, but most of all the odds logic.
Live odds page allows you to track the market.
What is the line open at? Where is it now?
Which direction has it moved in by how much?
(21:39):
Identify steam. When the lines getting lit up in
red, you know it's moving. Then you can look for a slow
moving book that hasn't adjustedyet.
Or also you're going to get the notifications for injuries,
final scores and as always, shopping for the best line,
finding the best price, which can really increase your chances
of winning. So give Odds Logic a shot.
I think you're going to enjoy it.
(22:00):
If you go to oddslogic.com/josh 123, you're going to get a 7 day
free trial and 50% off your first month.
Again, that's oddslogic.com/josh123.
So that about does it for episode 336 of the ASG Pod on a
Thirsty Thursday. I will be, by the way, with my
(22:21):
buddy Patrick Maher tonight, 8:00 Eastern Time on SiriusXM
Visa Live tonight if you guys want to TuneIn, but I'm looking
forward to hopefully a profitable night here tonight.
Try to eke out A2 in one night on the baseball diamond.
But as always, guys, two final thoughts, whether I see you at
the Borgata at Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
Brooklyn New Hampshire, Foxwoodsor Mohegan Sun down in
(22:42):
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park casino
MGM Springfield, the Nash in my neck of the woods and greater
greater northwest of Boston hereabout 10 minutes from the the
border of New Hampshire, which definitely pays pays off when
you need to buy stuff and you goacross the border and get no
sales tax. That's been a pleasant surprise
(23:02):
since we since we got our house almost four years ago today,
man, time flies. But anyway, wherever it may be
or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get down
or Billy Walter sends his numberrunners where the lowest true as
possible is found at the South Point or sweat and sharp
contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swim pool.
When you cash a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
you're going to walk up to me. Yankees and Guardians, total
(23:25):
trash yesterday, but show me a race ticket.
Nice to see the race come through late night.
First one's on me, next one's onyou.
We'll post about the book. So a sharp contrarian plays all
night long. So as always, guys, whether
we're coming off a one and two night, A2 in one night, an O and
three night, a three and O night, whether hot, cold,
grinding, treading water, feel like we can't miss or feel like
(23:46):
we can't hit the broadside of a barn, that's sports betting.
You're going to have those ups and downs.
The key is to never get too highor too low.
You just got to stick to the model, stick to the blueprint,
make bets based upon what the data, the numbers are telling
us, not what our biases and our assumptions are telling us.
So if we can do that, if we can find games that fit our model
against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
(24:08):
avoid parlays and get that CLV, if we can do that, we're going
to come out on top in the end. So have a great Thirsty
Thursday, everybody. I'll be right back at it
tomorrow for episode 337 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
podcast powered by Rhythm. If you haven't done it yet,
guys, go buy the NFL Sharp Betting playbook.
Thanks everybody and have a great night.
Hello and welcome to episode 336of the All Systems Go sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I am your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Thirsty Thursday as our work week rolls on.
(00:40):
Almost coming to a close here guys.
And you know what? I woke up today thinking there
were two NFL pre season games. So I was already capping the
games for tomorrow, which if youhaven't noticed, we have
Tennessee and Atlanta. It's a 7:00 game.
Big move toward Tennessee -3 1/2up to 5 1/2, but it's coming
back down toward 5. So I picked off a + 5 1/2 with
Atlanta, then also KC Seattle 10:00 game tomorrow open Kansas
(01:04):
City -2 1/2 on the road we flip to -3 first Seattle.
And I was looking at a money line play on Seattle with Kansas
City most likely going to rest alot of their guys.
And then I even wrote a sharp report about the two matchups
tonight. And then someone tweeted me and
they said aren't those games fortomorrow?
And I was like yes you are right, those games are for
tomorrow. So hope you woke up today
(01:25):
knowing which day and which games are being played.
But either way, guys, we do havea very small baseball slate,
only seven games overall, but I do have a three pack of plays
for you. I got a couple money lines and
also have a total, a weather based total with some really
good juice liability as well as a sharp mush edge from our
friends at Juice Real. So we're going to look through
our three pack. Try to cash some tickets here,
(01:47):
guys, try to go 2 and 1 eek out a winning day.
Now I want to mention real quick, we've now had the NFL
Sharp Betting Playbook live and available, real and spectacular.
You can pick it up anywhere, Amazon.com or your local Barnes
and Noble. But it's not a couple days.
And I want to thank you guys because we are still number one.
We're still #1 Amazon in the category of sports gambling, we
(02:10):
are #1 so it's great to see. I think I want to thank you guys
all again for buying a copy. Continue to tweet me your photos
of you holding the book. I love seeing those and I also
want to give a shout out to those of you who have already
put up a five star review on Amazon.
Now I want I'm going to be I'm going to ask you guys a favor.
Not only am I going to ask you to buy the book and support the
(02:31):
team and get some great sports betting data as we prepare for
the NFL season, but also could you give it a five star review
and a nice little blurb on Amazon?
Because one thing that I learnedfrom my first book is that the
more five star reviews, the moreverified purchases that leave a
little blurb talking about what they enjoyed about the book.
That really helps us to stay number one and continue to get
(02:53):
more views and click. So it's really important that we
get these these five star reviews.
And so we've already gotten 3. I want to give it a shout out to
Amy T5 star review titled my sport betting husband's review.
So shout out to Amy T doing somework for her husband but she put
It's a smart and practical sports betting guide that
belongs on every sports better shelf.
(03:15):
My husband loves Josh in his book and really brings all his
expertise and logic to life. Highly recommend quote or quote
UN quote written by my husband so appreciate it.
Amy T and her awesome husband Emily Allison Five star review 5
out of five she put Josh Applebaum is the man and this is
a great book. This book is great for beginners
or experienced gamblers. Boom love it.
(03:37):
Kindle customer Five star review.
Must read loaded with useful information, short and sweet.
So I'm telling you guys it'll take you 2 seconds, but if you
do enjoy the book, you want to help me to continue to keep this
momentum going as we're still number one.
I'm loving that please five starreview short little blurb and it
can be literally as simple as loaded with useful information
(03:58):
again, 4 words, but it means a lot.
So thank you all for buying the book.
Remember, you can get on Amazon,buy it for a friend, get as many
copies as you want. But I really do appreciate you
guys and we're off to a very, very good start.
Now, aside from good, good opening here for the book,
unfortunately not all good things can last forever because
(04:19):
we were six and O to start the week in MLB.
Went one and two yesterday -1.2 units.
The Rays came through, which wasnice.
That was a late night sweat witha road favorite non division
line move. But the Yankees lost 4 to 1.
They're up 1, nothing and blew it.
And the Guardians, Gavin Williams almost threw no hitter,
his last start out, his start out, he got rolled and the
Guardians lost 13 to 4, got absolutely crushed and at one
(04:42):
point the game was tied 4 to 4, then completely let go of the
rope. So Guardians and Yankees let us
down, but we did get a winner there with the Rays.
So let's see if we can start a new winning streak here for
today. So that being said, as I
mentioned, it's a very small slate in baseball, but I do have
3 plays for you, 2 money lines and one total.
We don't bet a lot of totals, but this one jumped out to me
(05:02):
for a variety of reasons. So let's waste no more time.
I do want to get this pot out a little bit earlier than usual
because there is a day game thatcaught my eye.
Let's look at a three O 7:00 PM Eastern Time first pitch Chicago
Cubs visiting the Toronto Blue Jays.
Now this is an interleague rubber match here the Blue Jays
who are 70 and 51. They won the opener 5 to one
(05:22):
came through as a -, 125 home favorite.
Then we saw the Cubbies who are 68 and 51.
They bounce back with a four to one win yesterday, cashing as a
+ 115 Rd. dog. So in this late afternoon series
finale again, three O 7:00 PM Eastern Time first pitch, the
Cubs are going to go with the lefty Matthew Boyd.
He's 11 and five with a 2.45 ERA.
(05:43):
And the Blue Jays are going to go with the fellow going with
the righty veteran Max Scherzer,2 and two, 4.2 on ERA.
So what do you see across the market here?
Well, this isn't the biggest line move in the world, but I
did notice that this game openedat basically a pick em.
It was pretty much -110 both sides, some books even opened a
slight favorite with Toronto at home.
(06:04):
But we've now seen this line flip toward the Chicago Cubs,
going from basically a pick em to now a -115 Rd. favorite and a
couple books even touching -120.So again, it was a pick em game,
even slight Toronto favorite at some shops.
Now he flipped not dog to fave, but pick em to fave in favor of
the Chicago Cubs. Now to continue this cap here,
(06:27):
what I really like is the Cubbies bet splits.
If you look at DraftKings, the Cubs are getting 54% of money
line bets, but 62% of money linedollars.
So really good low bets, higher dollar split coming down here in
favor of, of course, the Cubs inthis spot.
But then also if we look at Circa, Circa's got another
(06:48):
really good split toward the Cubs, 49% of bets but 79% of
dollars. So both DraftKings and Circa low
bets, higher dollars aligning with the move here toward the
Cubs. Now the Cubs would have some
value as an interleague favorite, lack of familiarity
benefiting, quote UN quote, the better team.
I'm going to hope Boyd pitch as well.
More on him in a second. But then also that the Cubs can
(07:09):
get to Scherzer because the Cubson the year have the better
bats. They're hitting or they have hit
169 home runs, they've scored 604 runs.
Blue Jays have hit 139 home runs, only scored 589 runs.
So not a huge discrepancy, but more explosive bats here on the
Cubs. You look at Boyd, remember they
picked him up. He was at one point with Detroit
(07:30):
and then the Guardians, but he'sbeen a big, big pick up for the
Cubs. He has a 2.25 ERA and two August
starts. He's given up 0 earned runs in
four of his last six starts. That's pretty darn good.
And also in day games, he's pitched pretty well.
Four and one 1.66 ERA. Cubs have the slight edge in the
bullpen as well. If we got to sweat this thing
(07:52):
late, they have an ERA of 3.83 versus 4 point O 7 for Toronto.
And I did notice some smart money hit this under.
So you had a lot of books open 81/2.
It's down to 8. It's just under.
I think one shop is even at 7 1/2.
But it's notable that you have the line kind of dropping toward
a lower scoring game and simultaneously moving toward the
favorite. Hopefully that's a, you know, 5
(08:13):
to 1 win here by the Cubs today.We had all up guys.
Bit of an early match up here, but we have seen a move toward
the Cubs. Really good bet splits on the
Cubs. I'm going to take a shot on
Chicago in this one. I got Chicago -114 at DraftKings
again, shop around. Most books -115 even -120 and a
little little gas to the fire here.
(08:34):
A little cherry on top. I popped open the Juice Rail app
and one of the two Robo Jackson best bet picks.
And if you're unfamiliar, Robo Jackson is an AI bot.
He puts out two best bets based on all the data at Juice Rail
each day at noon. And one of the picks is on the
Cubs. So I'll take that.
Let's go cub these guys next. Let's now go to the Big Apple.
(08:57):
7:10 PM Eastern Time, First pitch, the Atlanta Braves
visiting the New York Mets. Now this is the rubber match of
a three-game set as well. We have the Mets coming in 64
and 56. They dominated the opener 13 to
5, came through as a -145 home favorite.
Then the Braves who are 52 and 68, they clawed back with an 11
to six win yesterday, came through as a + 170 home dog and
(09:21):
pour one out for anyone who might have had the the Mets
yesterday because they were up 6to nothing and then lost 11 to
6. So man that that's a tough one
there. Now pitching match up for
tonight, Braves are going to go with the righty Bryce Elder.
He's 4:00 and 9:00 with a 6.12 ERA.
Mets meanwhile going with fellowrighty Cody Senga, he's seven
and four with a 2.3 O ERA. Now what have we seen across the
(09:44):
market here? Well, this game opened pretty
big favorite with the the New York Mets -185 Atlanta around a
+ 165 Rd. dog. And it's notable to me that even
though the Mets are really struggled recently and they blew
a huge lead yesterday, the fact they open has a pretty big
favorite. And again, Atlanta pretty juicy
dog. But the line hasn't dropped
(10:04):
toward Atlanta. No, it's gone further toward the
Mets. Mets have now gotten steamed up
-185 up to -190 some shops now even as high as -195 I jumped on
the Mets at -190 at Bet MGM. And of course, every bet, not
just a big favorite on a money line price, but every bet here,
of course is Bettris first bet to win.
(10:25):
So if you are playing Mets with me, you're not risking 1.9 units
to win one unit that'll be betting to win.
You're just risking your one unit trying to get a little more
than 1/2 unit back. Now to make you feel a little
bit better about this Mets play #1 we're buying low on a on a
team that struggled. So you kind of have that in your
back pocket. But also, if you look at Circa
out in Vegas, 40% of bets are onthe Mets, but it accounts for
(10:47):
nearly 60% of the dollars. So it tells us we got a low
bets, higher dollar split here in favor of the Mets, which
aligns with the line move. Then we have quite a few systems
on the Mets. So Thursday, home favorites -175
or more. They're 19 and six this year, 76
percent, 9% ROI. Home favorites who made the
playoffs the previous season, playing opponent who also made
(11:10):
the playoffs the previous season.
That system is 109 and 6862% with a 4% ROI.
Favorites -190 or more. Playing an opponent who made the
playoffs the previous year. Those teams are 41 and 1672
percent, 6% ROI. So quite a few matches here on
the Mets. Mets would have the more
explosive bats. They've hit 154 home runs,
(11:32):
scored 532 runs. Overall, Braves have hit 135
homers, scored 515 runs. So slight edge offensively
toward the Mets and then New York, they're 35 and 1866
percent, 5% ROI as a home favorite.
That's the fifth best chalk teamat home in baseball.
And when they are a home favorite playing opponent below
(11:53):
500, they're 19 and 676 percent,14% ROI as a home favorite.
Cody Senga has been a pretty good to pick up coming over from
Japan couple years ago. But the Mets are 13 and five and
his eighteen starts, he's five and one with a 2.42 ERA at home
this year. Also, you look at the Braves and
(12:13):
Elders, 19 starts, they're 7 and12 and he's given up 4 earned
runs or more and six of his lastnine starts.
So hopefully the Mets can get toElder here today.
By the way, on the road he's twoand five with a 5.61 ERA and
just home home Rd. in general, Mets are 39 and 22 at home.
The Braves are 22 and 38 on the road.
(12:35):
So they have struggled in this spot.
So you got all up here guys and all the Mets have struggled.
But this number kind of speaks volumes to me.
Like why are the Mets such a bigfavor if they've struggled so
much? Well, hopefully it's kind of a
Senga greater than elder spot. Hopefully if you if you have a
six nothing lead, you blow it and lose.
Give up 11 unanswered runs and lose 11-6.
(12:56):
Maybe you got some just revenge on your mind here hopefully for
today, which can also be a benefit.
But yeah, it all up here guys. I am going to late with the
Mets. Give me the Mets.
I got a -, 190 at Bet MGM last bat of the night.
This is a total. Let's look at the Detroit Tigers
visiting the Minnesota Twins. Now the Tigers come in 70 and 52
(13:19):
just took two out of three against the White Sox.
You know, the Twins 57 and 63 just dropped two of three
against the Yankees, but did avoid the sweep and got the win
there last night. Unfortunately, because I was on
the the New York Yankees, might you might have been to as well.
Now, looking toward the pitchingmatch up here, we have the lefty
ace Tarik Scooble. Scooble going.
I don't know if I mentioned thisis 7:40 PM Eastern Time, first
(13:42):
pitch, but Scooble is 11 and three, 2.35 ERA.
He'll be opposed by Bailey Ober.Four and seven, 5.16 ERA.
Now, in terms of the side, you know, it seems like an obvious
play to just take Detroit, but they've kind of been around -200
and pretty much stayed -200 theyeven dipped a little bit.
So that's a big number. And Publix all over Detroit here
(14:04):
in this spot, Tigers are gettinglike 86% of bets.
So really wasn't much for me on the money line, But the total
jumped out to me. I'm going to go under 7 1/2
here, guys. Here's my thought process.
One, if we look at the seven anda half, let's look at how the
juice has moved. It opens 7 1/2 basically -110 -,
115. Now you're 7 1/2 under -115 -,
(14:27):
120. So the juice has grown or we
like to say getting juiced up toward the under.
Is that an oxymoron? You're getting juiced up on the
under if you know what I'm saying.
But anyway, it's becoming a moreexpensive price to play the
under. So it tells me there's some
under liability here. Now the next angle is if we look
at the splits, they look pretty good toward the under.
At DraftKings, only 48% of bets,but 61% of dollars are on the
(14:51):
under. So low bets, higher dollar
split. We also have Detroit as a big
-200 favorite. So typically we always talk, you
know, fav low total, a dog high total.
But if you're a big favorite -200 low total of 7 1/2, fair
amount of expected run score, typically going to that better
team, you know, it's kind of a good sign where maybe it's a,
(15:11):
you know, 22, nothing game 4, nothing game 4 to 1, something
like that. Because historically, if you're
a big favorite, again, you're probably winning the game and
low total, maybe you're winning the game in a with a few amount
of expected run score. Now, the other angle for me is
the weather here. Now we may have to sweat a rain
(15:32):
delay. I was kind of looking at the the
forecast here at Target Field. It's going to be like mid 70s,
but there's going to be scattered showers.
But most importantly the wind isblowing in.
So the wind is blowing in prettygood here, about 10 to 15 mph
from right center. So hopefully the wind blowing in
will push some first row homers into warning track fly ball
(15:52):
outs. Then if we also look at in
general, overs, unders, now, I don't bet a ton of totals in
baseball. I feel like I have a better edge
with sides. And if you, you know, lay it,
lay it under and your bullpen blows it in the ninth, you know,
that's something that's kind of tough.
But anyway, in general this year, unders have been the
better bet. Unders are 52.1%.
(16:14):
Again, you're losing because you're not overcoming the juice,
but overs are 47.9%. So you've lost way more playing
overs than you have unders if you dig a little deeper.
When the total is 7 1/2 or less low scoring games, the public
seems to think or you can't really blame them.
Hey, only 7 1/2 low total, you know, take the over.
However, when the total is 7 half or less, the under is
(16:36):
actually 212 and 179. That's a 54% win rate with a
nearly 5% ROI. The twins are also 63 and 51 to
the under on the year. That's 55%.
That makes them the 9th best under team in baseball.
And then a little cherry on top,I popped open the Juice Reel app
and noticed a 19% sharp mush edge on the under.
(17:00):
So we have a good group of sharpwinning betters who have
downloaded Juice Reel synced up their books.
Also leaning under here, so you Add all up, School bulls a big
favorite, but we do have a low total.
It's been juiced up toward the under.
We got good splits. We got wind blowing in.
We have this spot of 7 1/2 or less doing pretty well this
year. And we also have a sharp mush
(17:20):
edge toward the under. So again, add it all up.
I'm going under under 7 1/2 and I got it at -115 at Bet MGM.
So Detroit, Minnesota, under 7 1/2, the Mets and the Cubs, See
if we can get 2 out of 3. Eek out a winning day.
So that about does it for episode 336 of the all systems
(17:41):
go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
start first by saying thank you.Thank you for taking the time
out of your day, out of your busy lives to pull up a chair to
the virtual bar and sweat some sharp data-driven breakdowns
with me. If you do enjoy this pod and you
want to give it a five star review on Spotify or iTunes,
leave a nice comment under the review section or click the
(18:03):
follow button or recommend the pod to a friend, you would make
my day and I'd very much appreciate that.
Next, if you enjoy the style of betting breakdown, data-driven,
sharp contrarian betting, focusing on what the market is
telling us, not what our innate biases are telling us in this.
In that case, if you enjoy and you've kind of been turned on to
the idea of tracking your live odds page, looking at line
(18:26):
movement, bet split system matches, you're making bets with
your head and not your heart. You're taking a contrarian
approach. If that's the case and you want
to learn more about data-driven betting or you know someone in
your life who could use some data-driven tips, then you know
what I'd love for you guys to do?
I'd love for you to go to Amazon.com and type in the
Everything Guide to Sports betting or the NFL Sharp Betting
Playbook. The Everything Guide is my first
(18:48):
book. It's great for brand new betters
really walks you through the data-driven process, how lines
are set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how
to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online,
how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
management plan, all included inthe everything guide to sports
betting. And then of course, my new book,
my baby is now two days old, butpretty amazing or I guess three
(19:10):
days old at this point. But I want to thank all of you
who have pre-ordered a copy or picked up a copy now that it's
widely available again, keep thekeep the five star reviews
coming in on on on Amazon, because that does mean a lot to
me. But I want to thank you guys and
continue to tweet me photos of you holding the book.
That's been really, really cool.I don't, you know, I'll give you
(19:31):
an RT retweet on that one. But if you want to pick one up,
either the everything guide or the NFL sharp betting playbook
or both. You don't really want to be a
hero. Guess what?
I'll meet you at the book. I'll sign them for you.
I'll buy a beer or ginger ale and I'll sweat some games
together. Sounds like sounds like a good
time to me Next, have you downloaded rhythm and juice reel
(19:52):
yet My two favorite sports betting apps.
They are great to add to your sports betting data-driven
toolkit. Rhythm great for their AI backed
models and predictions for game bets and player props.
Obviously they have MLB and WNBAlive right now, but they also
have college football that just went live in the app and pretty
soon we'll have NFL. So again, if you're if you're
looking to bet like a pro and look for discrepancy plays and
(20:16):
prop bets with good player prop.What are they called the power
trends? Those have really been doing
well also, but make sure you download rhythm and then also
you download juice reel. Juice reel is a another great
sports betting app. If you want to tip your podcast
host, download juice reel and goto buy sell bottom right corner,
(20:36):
search ASG under score podcast and then you can get the podcast
plays immediately. Once I bet them, I bet them at
my book. They go right to Juice Reel
because I've synced my books up.You're going to get those plays.
You can tail fade, do whatever you like, but that costs you
$4.99 a week. So for 5 bucks, hopefully you
feel like it's a decent tip for your podcast host.
(20:57):
And again, hopefully we'll beat some closing lines as well.
But you're also going to get theRobo Jackson best bet picks, the
sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays, the shop for
the best line futures, all available when you download
Juice Reel. So download Juice Reel, download
Rhythm, give him a five star review in the App Store and
he'll be off and running making sharp bets.
Next, do you have a live odds page?
(21:19):
You need a live odds page. I cannot stress it enough.
You got to know all the games that are being played that day,
all the bets you can possibly make or choose from.
You got to know the start times,the live scoring, the live in
game wagering odds, but most of all the odds logic.
Live odds page allows you to track the market.
What is the line open at? Where is it now?
Which direction has it moved in by how much?
(21:39):
Identify steam. When the lines getting lit up in
red, you know it's moving. Then you can look for a slow
moving book that hasn't adjustedyet.
Or also you're going to get the notifications for injuries,
final scores and as always, shopping for the best line,
finding the best price, which can really increase your chances
of winning. So give Odds Logic a shot.
I think you're going to enjoy it.
(22:00):
If you go to oddslogic.com/josh 123, you're going to get a 7 day
free trial and 50% off your first month.
Again, that's oddslogic.com/josh123.
So that about does it for episode 336 of the ASG Pod on a
Thirsty Thursday. I will be, by the way, with my
(22:21):
buddy Patrick Maher tonight, 8:00 Eastern Time on SiriusXM
Visa Live tonight if you guys want to TuneIn, but I'm looking
forward to hopefully a profitable night here tonight.
Try to eke out A2 in one night on the baseball diamond.
But as always, guys, two final thoughts, whether I see you at
the Borgata at Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
Brooklyn New Hampshire, Foxwoodsor Mohegan Sun down in
(22:42):
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park casino
MGM Springfield, the Nash in my neck of the woods and greater
greater northwest of Boston hereabout 10 minutes from the the
border of New Hampshire, which definitely pays pays off when
you need to buy stuff and you goacross the border and get no
sales tax. That's been a pleasant surprise
(23:02):
since we since we got our house almost four years ago today,
man, time flies. But anyway, wherever it may be
or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get down
or Billy Walter sends his numberrunners where the lowest true as
possible is found at the South Point or sweat and sharp
contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swim pool.
When you cash a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
you're going to walk up to me. Yankees and Guardians, total
(23:25):
trash yesterday, but show me a race ticket.
Nice to see the race come through late night.
First one's on me, next one's onyou.
We'll post about the book. So a sharp contrarian plays all
night long. So as always, guys, whether
we're coming off a one and two night, A2 in one night, an O and
three night, a three and O night, whether hot, cold,
grinding, treading water, feel like we can't miss or feel like
(23:46):
we can't hit the broadside of a barn, that's sports betting.
You're going to have those ups and downs.
The key is to never get too highor too low.
You just got to stick to the model, stick to the blueprint,
make bets based upon what the data, the numbers are telling
us, not what our biases and our assumptions are telling us.
So if we can do that, if we can find games that fit our model
against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
(24:08):
avoid parlays and get that CLV, if we can do that, we're going
to come out on top in the end. So have a great Thirsty
Thursday, everybody. I'll be right back at it
tomorrow for episode 337 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
podcast powered by Rhythm. If you haven't done it yet,
guys, go buy the NFL Sharp Betting playbook.
Thanks everybody and have a great night.
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