August 18, 2025 • 26 mins
In Episode 338, Josh dishes out a 3-pack of MLB plays for Monday night, plus an NFL player prop for the upcoming season.
Josh's new book "The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook" is OUT NOW! Purchase your copy today
The ASG podcast is free. If you'd like to support the podcast, sign up to receive the official best bets for $4.99 per week exclusively on Juice Reel. Just click this link.
Need a Live Odds page? Go to oddslogic.com/josh123 for a 7-day free trial and 50% off your first month.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:19):
Hello, and welcome to episode 338 of the All Systems Go sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
Happy Monday, a new week begins.We're now in the back half of
the month of August. Man, summer's flying by.
(00:42):
I do have one thing I'm looking forward to very much.
We always do this, me and the family, the last week in August,
we always go to Cape Cod. So we're going to be doing that
once again. And I'll be heading off on
Saturday for a week. I'll still be working, you know,
again, a little work, little play, but I'll be hanging on the
Cape, eating clam chowder, lobster rolls, hanging with the
family. So very much looking forward to
(01:03):
that. But you know, when the the you
know, the annual family trip at the end of summer on the Cape,
you know that means summer is ending.
And again, maybe you're a littlebittersweet about that, but it
does get you excited because we got NFL pre season.
Obviously we're Week 2 going into week 3.
Now. We did see a bit of an
adjustment with those overs thatwere insane, 16 and two to the
(01:23):
over and week 1. I think they regressed a little
bit. I believe they're, I think 8:00
and 7:00 this past week. So a little bit of regression
there to the mean. But then we got obviously NFL
week 1 coming up first week in September.
And then if we get college football guys, we got games
coming up here on Saturday. So you should have a few plays
here. I'm already looking at one game
(01:44):
in particular, Iowa State and K State.
We actually opened Kansas State around a 3 1/2 point favorite.
It's down to three at some shops.
So I'm thinking do we take the hook there?
And then also with Stanford and Hawaii, it's not your late night
Hawaii game. It's a 730 game.
We did see dog to fave move toward Hawaii, getting 2 1/2 now
-2 So if you've been waiting, you know, you know, scratching
(02:07):
and clawing ready for some college football.
The wait is almost over as obviously we have some college
football week 0. Isn't it funny?
We got Week 0, but looking very much forward to that.
For today's pod though, we're going to get right back to Major
League Baseball. I have a three pack of sweats
for you, all relatively short numbers, so see if we can go 2
and one each got a winning day. I also have an NFL player prop
(02:28):
for you. I'm trying to finalize my card.
I've already been a few win totals.
I got the Patriots over 7 1/2 wins, I believe it was -150 I
also had the under 5 1/2 at a little bit of plus money with
the Saints. So people have been asking me,
hey, you know what, what's your card for futures and all that?
Well, I should have maybe one ortwo more win totals and I am
(02:49):
going to have a few player props, maybe some division bets.
But I do have a quarterback thatI like to go over his passing
touchdowns. I'm going to end the pod here
today with this prop bet that I just placed.
Yeah, it is also a play where you're kind of comparing and
contrasting different books and finding a discrepancy where one
book, even what's a tiny bit juicier, is offering a much
(03:09):
better number. SO3 MLB plays today, one player
prop in the NFL, quarterback futures play.
And again, we'll see if we can start a week off on a hot note.
Now, I know it's been a while. I haven't seen you guys or
talked to you guys since Friday,but do you remember Friday night
5 and O + 3.91 units. We swept the board with the
Rays, the Yankees and the Phillies and then some good test
(03:31):
cases in preseason football. Cuz remember the Falcons plus 5
1/2 they open getting I believe 3 1/2.
They got all the up to 5 1/2. I played the 5 1/2 but I
mentioned on the pod if you could still get the hook on the
3 1/2 maybe some value there. Will they close 2 1/2 and then
up losing by three? So if you got 3 1/2 for better
you cash for the Falcons and then Seahawks.
(03:52):
One of our favorite moves of alltime, the dog to fave line movie
open as a dog you flip to a favorite Seahawks money line
came through so big fat 5 and O Friday night what you love to
see. But anyway guys, let's waste no
further time. Get right back into what we do
when we do what we love to do. Making sharp, data-driven plays
with our head and not our heart based on monitoring and studying
(04:13):
the betting market. So first play for me.
Let's go out to Pittsburgh, 6:40PM Eastern Time, first pitch
where the Pirates are hosting the Toronto Blue Jays now
setting the stage for this one. The Jays come in 73 and 52.
Just took two or three against the Rangers.
Couldn't get the sweep, though. They lost that serious finale
yesterday. 3:50 as a -, 120 homefavorite.
(04:34):
You know, the Pirates 52 and 73 on the year, pretty much the
opposite record. They just dropped two or three
against the cubbies. They lost four to three
yesterday as a + 160 Rd. dog. So for tonight's interleague
series opener, the Jays are going with the ready Kevin
Gozman. He's 8:00 and 9:00 with a 3.79
ERA. Meanwhile, the Buckos are going
with the ready Paul Skeens 7 and92.13 ERA.
(04:57):
So just sitting across the market here.
Well, the skeens on the bump, you know, typically you're going
to be favored. It's rare skeens as a dog, but
we did open Pittsburgh around a -, 120 home favorite, Toronto,
basically around a + 100 row dog.
And it's interesting to me that anytime you see skeens at a low
price, you know, how does the betting market react?
Does the betting market say, man, take advantage of skeens at
(05:20):
a short price? Or is the other thought here,
hey, it's low for a reason, maybe you should bet against
skeens. Well, looks like the latter is
taking place here because Pittsburgh open -120 now they're
down to -110 On the other side, we got Toronto plus 100 down to
-110 So basically we've become apick em game basically -110 both
(05:40):
sides with the line moving toward Toronto.
Now if you look at the splits here on the Jays, they look
pretty good at DraftKings. The Jays are getting 65% of
money line bets, 68% of money line dollars at circa 88% of
money line bets, 94% of money line dollars.
Excuse me. So both books are showing a nice
low bets higher dollar split in favor of Toronto.
(06:04):
Now if Toronto is slightly a dogat some shops they would match
one system that's been really good short dog plus 120 or less
with a line move in their favor that since August 1st is 34 and
2360%. But because of the short price
or even some plus money there, you are a 21% ROI.
(06:24):
Now, I jumped on Toronto at -1 O4 at FanDuel.
So technically that is a dog. But most of the market is -110
both sides. So definitely shop around, try
to get that best number. I'm going to bank on Toronto's
offense hopefully showing up andgetting to skeins more on him in
a second. He's come back down to earth a
little bit in the month of August.
But Toronto has an edge at the plate.
They've hit 269 as a team, 148 home runs, 615 runs scored.
(06:49):
Pittsburgh has hit 232 as a team, only 88 homers, 439 runs
scored. Now, the Jays are also number
one in baseball batting average against righty's, hitting 268.
They're also hitting 268 on the road, second best in baseball.
You know, Pirates hitting 237 against righty's, that ranks
26th in baseball and only hitting 249 at home, that ranks
(07:10):
17th. So Jays have been really good
against righty's and on the road.
Obviously Pirates have struggledagainst righties in at home.
Now, I mentioned Skeens a secondago, but in the month of August
he's made three starts. 4.8 Oera, you don't expect that with
Skeens. He's going up eight runs in 15
innings pitched. Meanwhile, Kevin Gozman, maybe
part of the line move toward Toronto is, you know Gozman's
(07:32):
pitch very well. He's giving up two earned runs
or less and seven of his last nine starts.
Then you look at last 10, Toronto six and four, they're
hitting 287 as a team, 430 team ERA.
The other hand, you got Pittsburgh three and seven over
the last 10 hitting 224 with a 5.87 team ERA.
So we open schemes, schemes as afavorite, but the sign has
(07:53):
fallen and basically come down to a pick em.
I'm going to follow that sharp line move.
I'm going to back Gozman. I'm going to hope Toronto's bats
can get a few runs across against Skeens and let's fingers
crossed that Gozman can pitch another gem for us.
So first play on the board for me guys.
I got Toronto minus one O 4 at FanDuel.
Again, shop around. A lot of books are mostly now
-110 next one for you. 6:40 PM Eastern Time, first pitch, Saint
(08:18):
Louis Cardinals visiting the Miami Marlins.
Now coming into this, we got theCardinals 61 and 64 just got
swept by the Yankees. They lost that series finale
yesterday. 8 to 4 is a + 130 home dog.
You know the Marlins 59 and 65. They just dropped two or three
against the Red Sox. Avoided the sweep with A53 win
yesterday. Came through as a + 215 Rd. dog.
(08:41):
Don't don't get me started on that game because Sox are up 3
to 2. They couldn't pitch Chapman
because he had pitched the two previous nights and they blew
the lead and lost. And I'm a Red Sox fan, but more
importantly, I have Red Sox win total over 85 and a halfs.
That was annoying. Anyway, pitching matchup for
tonight. Cards are going with the lefty
Matthew Liberator. He's 6 and 10, four point O 8
(09:02):
ERA. You know the fish are going to
go with the righty Yuri Perez. He's five and three with a 3.58
ERA. What do we see across the market
here? Well, Miami opened around a -,
130 -, 135 home favorite Saint Louis, around a + 115 Rd. dog.
And not the hugest or biggest steam move, you know, in the
world here. But we have seen this line creep
(09:22):
up further toward Miami. They've gone from -130 -, 135 up
to around -140 now. Some shops even as high as -145
I jumped on Miami -142 I believethat's still available now Bet
MGM. So shop around, try to find that
lowest price if you want to playthe fish with me.
But aside from this line move toward Miami, they were pretty
(09:44):
good bet split at Circa out in Vegas that caters to wise guys.
78% of money line bets, 95% of money line dollars.
Then you get to some system matches lit up on Miami.
I got 3. Three good ones here Monday.
Home teams of the line move in their favor. 66 and 39. 63% on
the year, 9% ROI. Both teams below 500 take the
(10:07):
home favorite off a win. This would also match with
Miami. 67 and 3764 percent, 5% ROI.
Non division home favorites -150or less off a win getting line
movement in their favor. Those teams are 88 and 49 this
year 64% but a 14% ROI because of the short ish short ish
price. Again you got to be -150 or
(10:29):
less. Couple other angles of Miami
correlative betting favorite lowtotal few amount of expected run
score more likely to come from quote UN quote the better team
and we have Miami as a additional betting system play
non division favorite just classic.
Lack of familiarity typically benefits the better team.
And I do want to back Perez on the road.
He hasn't been great 4.42 ERA but at home 2 point O 8 ERA.
(10:53):
So hopefully the Saint Louis Cardinals team just got swept by
the Yankees again, got a lot of injuries falling out of the
race. The Marlins are kind of pesky.
Let's see if they can get it done and get a win for us
tonight. I am on Miami -142 at Bet MGM.
But again, shop around some books or a lot of books now -145
late night sweat. If you're on the East Coast like
(11:14):
me. Let's go out to Los Angeles or I
guess Anaheim technically, wherethe Halos are hosting the
Cincinnati Reds, 9:38 PM EasternTime, first pitch.
So let's set the stage for this one.
The Reds come in 65 and 60. Just lost two or three against
the Brewers, but they avoided the sweep and finally ended that
insane. You got to tip your cap.
(11:35):
The Brewers 14 wins in a row. Reds took them down 3 to 2
yesterday and extras came through as a -, 125 home
favorite. You know all the Angels 60 and
64. Just dropped two or three
against the Athletics. Also avoided the sweep with an
extra innings win yesterday. 11 to 5.
Came through as a -, 110 Rd. pick em.
So pitching match up here for tonight.
(11:56):
Reds are going to go with the righty Brady Singer.
He's 10 and nine. 4.31 ERA. Angels, meanwhile, going with
fellow ready Victor Medeiros, O&O 5.63 ERA.
What do we see across the markethere?
Well, not a huge move, but we open up basically a pick em -110
both sides. And yet we've seen this line
move a little bit up toward the red legs.
(12:17):
The legs have gone from -110 up to -115.
I got a -, 115 at Caesar's. A lot of books, though, are -116
-, 118 -, 120. So Caesar's looks to be the best
price right now, but about a 5 cent move in favor of the Reds.
If you look at the splits of DraftKings, 70% of bets, 85% of
dollars on Cincinnati. So good low bets, higher dollar
(12:40):
split. Here's a system.
I know it's a small sample, but since August 1st, short
favorites -120 or less with a line move in their favor.
They're 11 and 761%. But because of those short
prices, 15% ROI, that would match with the red Red legs
tonight. The Reds do have the better
bats. They're hitting 247 on the year,
(13:01):
570 runs scored. Angels hitting two, 33551 runs
scored. Also two righties on the bump.
Since he is hitting 254 against righties, that's the 6th best
batting average in baseball. Angels are hitting 234 against
righties. That ranks 28th.
A little bit more on these pitchers.
Brady Singer, I remember he was,I think a straight up trade for
(13:23):
Jonathan India when the Royals made that move.
But he is, he's pitched really well in the month of August.
He's made three starts, 2.3 O ERA, only giving up four earned
runs and 15.2 And he's pitched, he's allowed one earned run or
less in three of his last four starts.
So singers throwing the ball well.
Meanwhile, again, raise your hand if you've never heard of
(13:43):
Victor Medeiros. I hadn't until today, but Victor
Medeiros is making his second career start, 11th career MLB
appearance. So you got a veteran pitching
well singer and a new kid going up against a Reds team that hits
righties very well since he alsohas a better bullpen team area
of 3.96. Angels have the fifth worst
(14:05):
bullpen 4.84. So you add it all up guys.
This isn't a 10/20/30 cent steammove, but suddenly the line has
moved towards Cincy. Got good bet splits.
Hopefully the better pitcher on the bump and let's see if we can
fade Mederos and have the red legs bats get to this this young
kid. But add it all up guys, I'm
going cincy -115 at Caesar's again, shop around some books as
(14:28):
high as -120 so Jays, Miami Reds, let's try to get 2 out of
three of these. Now I know you're on pins and
needles for this NFL prop bet, but I, I landed on this prop bet
that really jumped out to me. So let me just say right off the
bat, I'm not a huge season long prop person for kind of a
(14:49):
variety of reasons. I think you can fall in love
with a lot of different guys, a lot of different numbers.
Obviously football is, you know,100% injury sport.
So you know, often times if you're taking, you know, running
back to go over, he could easilytear his ACL or get hurt.
So I think, and again, I'm not going to say it's safe because
you're never safe. Sports betting is always hard.
It's hard to win, but one thing I do look at is quarterbacks and
(15:14):
they're passing touchdowns. So the angle here to me is that
of all the players on the field,you know, quarterbacks are
protected the most. A lot of Q BS tend to play the
entire season. And if you can kind of take
advantage of maybe a player that's on the rise with a lot of
continuity in terms of, you know, same coaching staff,
(15:34):
returning offensive lineman, same weapons, maybe you add a
weapon or two. That always appeals to me.
But then also I like to play different sports books off each
other. So you got to remember if you
are playing, you know, Patrick Mahomes over passing yards or I
don't know, you know, Jalen Hurts over touchdowns, you got
to remember that not every book is going to have the exact same
(15:56):
number. So maybe you identify a play
that you like. You know, I didn't have access
to the one I'm about to tell youin terms of the splits, like
bets and dollars, some prop bets.
You know, I get some of that information from my friend John
Ewing at Bet MGM. So it's not like a low bets,
higher dollars line move play, but this is a player that I'm
high on that we can take advantage of one book offering a
(16:18):
much better price than the entire market.
So that player is Bo Nicks quarterback, remember wasn't he?
South Carolina, then Oregon obviously, and now going into a
second year with the Denver Broncos, led the Broncos to the
playoffs last year, had a fantastic year.
His over under passing touchdowns.
(16:39):
Now if you look at pretty much every book across the market,
DraftKings, FanDuel, Bet, MGM, Caesar's, all the major ones,
his over under passing touchdowns is 24 1/2.
So if you play the over, he needs 25 passing touchdowns.
Now that is juiced up over at a quite a few shops -115 -, 120 If
(17:00):
you look last year he had 29 passing touchdowns.
Now looking at maybe an improvement from Bonex.
One, I like the fact that he's an older rookie.
I know the knock on him, you know, getting drafted was he, I
think he has a rookie. He was like 24, but older
rookie, but also very experienced.
Played a ton of games in college.
I think he started like 60 games, something like that.
(17:23):
But a mature kid, experienced quarterback.
What I really like is he's goinginto year 2 and also he's in
year 2 with Sean Payton. So Sean Payton is one of the
best offensive minds play colorsin football.
Obviously had a great year at Bonex as a rookie.
Now your year 2 experience with me with Sean Payton year 2IN
general, you're no longer a rookie.
(17:44):
You kind of know what to expect.He's pretty much bringing back
his entire receiving core from last year.
So Courtland Sutton had a big year.
Mims was the deep threat that cashed a a bunch of big bombs.
And then also I I called this kid Valet, but it's, I think
it's valet. He's returning.
And then also the the Broncos added Evan Ingram, pretty good
(18:07):
tight end. If he can stay healthy, he's a
pretty good red zone target. So all this I'm saying for the
important reason of I'm high on Bonex going into this year.
However, here's the thing, if you made me take over 24 1/2,
yeah, I still kind of like that.But here's why you got to do
your due. Do your due diligence.
Say that 1010 times fast. I was looking at every book and
(18:30):
I landed on ESPN Bet and I double checked it right before
the pod started to make sure thenumber still available.
ESPN Bet is not 24 1/2. ESPN bet is 22 1/2 and it's 22
1/2. Now here's the thing.
It is juiced up a little bit. It's over 22 1/2 at -145 S
(18:51):
again. You could play him 24 1/2 and
save some juice -115 -, 120. Or you could spend, you know,
2025, thirty cents more and saveyourself by only having to get
23 or more passing touchdowns. Like let's say Bo Nicks finishes
the year with 23 or 24 passing touchdowns.
(19:14):
That means that if you play the over 24 1/2 at FanDuel
DraftKings, all the major books,you lose.
If you pay a little more juice, he lands 23 or 24, you cash at
ESPN, bet over 22 1/2. So that's my play.
I know it's a little juicy, but you know, I can't tell you how
many plays, especially with propbets where, you know, I could
(19:36):
have paid a little more juice toget an extra yard or I'll never
forget Bryce Young. I think I had him over 199 1/2
passing yards last year and I think he landed 199.
And I could have paid a little more juice and gotten like over
196 1/2 and I didn't. And from that point forward, I'm
unless the juice is -200 OK, that's too much.
But as long as it's not that crazy, I'm willing to pay a
(19:58):
little more juice to get a better number to protect myself.
Because name of the game is cashing tickets, so you're
welcome to ride with me if you'dlike, but Bonex, over 22 1/2
passing touchdowns at ESPN bet at the price of -145 that is a
play that I put in over the weekend.
So that about does it for episode 338 of the ASG Pod on a
(20:21):
Monday. As always, this is the part of
the pod where we wrap things up.We start first by saying thank
you. Thank you for taking the time
out of your day, out of your busy lives to pull up a chair to
the virtual bar and sweat some sharp, data-driven plays with
me. If you do enjoy the pod, you
value the insights, you enjoy the breakdowns, please could you
give this podcast a five star review on Spotify or iTunes?
(20:43):
If you want to leave a nice review comment, hit the follow
button. Recommend the pod to a friend.
That would also be amazing. Next, if you enjoy the style of
betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp contrarian betting folks
saying what the market is telling us, not what our biases
are telling us. If this style of betting has
appealed to you, you want to learn more about data-driven
betting, but more importantly, you want to get ready for the
(21:04):
NFL season. It's going to be here before you
know it. It's pretty much here now.
I would love for you guys to go to Amazon.com and type in the
NFL sharp betting playbook. That's my baby.
My baby is now a week old and we're still #1 new release on
Amazon. So I want to thank everyone who
has bought the NFL Sharp bettingplaybook.
(21:25):
If you do want to pick up a copy, it would mean a lot to me.
And if you would like to give ita five star review and a little
little comment on on Amazon, that would really help us to to
stay up there at the top of the ranks.
I also have another book, the NFL sharp, the everything guide
to sports betting. I get I got to get my books
right. I name them right.
That's the first book ever wrote.
It's great for just anyone who'sreally getting brand new into
(21:47):
sports betting, kind of lays outthe whole data-driven model.
But if you would like to buy theNFL Sharp Betting Playbook or
the Everything Guide to Sports betting, bring them to the
sports book. I'll sign them for you.
I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale and we'll sweat some games
together. That sounds pretty good to me.
Next, have you downloaded Rhythmor Juice Reel yet?
Well, if you haven't, now's the time because it's about to get
(22:08):
crazy up in here with football returning and then basketball
and before you know it, hockey. But Rhythm fantastic for their
AI backed models and predictionsfor game bets and player props.
Obviously you got MLB and WNBA right now, but we do have
college football systems alreadylighting up for week 0.
And I do have an announcement coming in a couple days with
Rhythm. We're putting the final touches
(22:30):
on our schedule for this fall. I'm excited to work with Rhythm
once again this year and then also go download Juice Reel if
you enjoy the pod, it's free. It cost you nothing to listen to
this pod. If you would like to support the
podcast. I would love it if you wanted to
sign up to get the all Systems Go official best bet picks from
the Juice Reel app. It costs $4.99 a week, so
(22:53):
basically less than a dollar a day to get the plays and you can
tailfade do whatever you like but they are available to you on
the Juice Reel app but you can again sign up and get them.
You also get the Robo Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush
indicators, the arbitrage plays,the shop for the best line
futures. All available when you download
Juice Reel. So download rhythm, download
Juice Reel and you'll be off andrunning making sharp bets.
(23:17):
Next you have a live odds page. If you don't, you need one.
It's so critical that if you want to be a day driven better,
you need access to real, accurate, reliable data.
And a lot of that comes in the form of a live odds page.
Bet splits are also really important to me.
But a live odds page there's a lot of them out there, but the
best one around is odds logic. So give it a shot with a 7 day
(23:37):
free trial, 50% off your first month.
They got all the major sports books.
They got the sharp books like pinnacle, all the games live
scoring, live in game wagering. You can identify steam.
The odds get lit up in red if anything is moving.
So he'd be first to know about big, big money hitting the
market. And then you also get full line
history and and of course, shopping for the best price.
(23:58):
So give it a shot, 7 day free trial, 50% off your first month
by going to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
So that about does it for episode 338 of the ASG Pod on a
big Monday. As always guys, I'll leave you
with two final thoughts. Whether I see you at the Borgata
in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
(24:19):
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut at the
Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park, Casino, MGM Springfield,
the Nash and my neck of the woods.
Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
down, where Billy Walter sends his number runners.
Where the lowest true as possible is found at the South
Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
(24:39):
When you catch a big ticket at Circa, you're going to show me a
nice little little 5 and a sweepfrom Friday's pod raise.
Yankees, Phillies, I hope you got the Falcons 3 1/2 or better.
Seahawks money line. Guess what?
First one's on me, next one's onyou.
We'll post about the book and sweat sharp contrarian plays all
night long. So wish you the best luck.
Everyone have a fantastic Mondaynight.
(25:00):
I'll see if we can get a get a couple winners here.
Let's try to go get 2 out of three and Major League Baseball.
But as always, remember, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet
against the public, place yourself on the side of the
house. Always be with the smart money,
never against it. Will smart money win every time?
No, unfortunately it won't because betting is hard.
It's unpredictable, but if we can consistently place ourselves
(25:21):
in that sweet spot against the house with the pros, with
against the public, get that COVand again flat that be
disciplined with our bankroll, then we're going to come out on
top long term. So have a great Monday,
everybody. Be right back at it tomorrow for
episode 339 of the All systems Go sports betting podcast
powered by rhythm. Good luck everybody and enjoy
(25:43):
the Monday sweats.
Hello, and welcome to episode 338 of the All Systems Go sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
Happy Monday, a new week begins.We're now in the back half of
the month of August. Man, summer's flying by.
(00:42):
I do have one thing I'm looking forward to very much.
We always do this, me and the family, the last week in August,
we always go to Cape Cod. So we're going to be doing that
once again. And I'll be heading off on
Saturday for a week. I'll still be working, you know,
again, a little work, little play, but I'll be hanging on the
Cape, eating clam chowder, lobster rolls, hanging with the
family. So very much looking forward to
(01:03):
that. But you know, when the the you
know, the annual family trip at the end of summer on the Cape,
you know that means summer is ending.
And again, maybe you're a littlebittersweet about that, but it
does get you excited because we got NFL pre season.
Obviously we're Week 2 going into week 3.
Now. We did see a bit of an
adjustment with those overs thatwere insane, 16 and two to the
(01:23):
over and week 1. I think they regressed a little
bit. I believe they're, I think 8:00
and 7:00 this past week. So a little bit of regression
there to the mean. But then we got obviously NFL
week 1 coming up first week in September.
And then if we get college football guys, we got games
coming up here on Saturday. So you should have a few plays
here. I'm already looking at one game
(01:44):
in particular, Iowa State and K State.
We actually opened Kansas State around a 3 1/2 point favorite.
It's down to three at some shops.
So I'm thinking do we take the hook there?
And then also with Stanford and Hawaii, it's not your late night
Hawaii game. It's a 730 game.
We did see dog to fave move toward Hawaii, getting 2 1/2 now
-2 So if you've been waiting, you know, you know, scratching
(02:07):
and clawing ready for some college football.
The wait is almost over as obviously we have some college
football week 0. Isn't it funny?
We got Week 0, but looking very much forward to that.
For today's pod though, we're going to get right back to Major
League Baseball. I have a three pack of sweats
for you, all relatively short numbers, so see if we can go 2
and one each got a winning day. I also have an NFL player prop
(02:28):
for you. I'm trying to finalize my card.
I've already been a few win totals.
I got the Patriots over 7 1/2 wins, I believe it was -150 I
also had the under 5 1/2 at a little bit of plus money with
the Saints. So people have been asking me,
hey, you know what, what's your card for futures and all that?
Well, I should have maybe one ortwo more win totals and I am
(02:49):
going to have a few player props, maybe some division bets.
But I do have a quarterback thatI like to go over his passing
touchdowns. I'm going to end the pod here
today with this prop bet that I just placed.
Yeah, it is also a play where you're kind of comparing and
contrasting different books and finding a discrepancy where one
book, even what's a tiny bit juicier, is offering a much
(03:09):
better number. SO3 MLB plays today, one player
prop in the NFL, quarterback futures play.
And again, we'll see if we can start a week off on a hot note.
Now, I know it's been a while. I haven't seen you guys or
talked to you guys since Friday,but do you remember Friday night
5 and O + 3.91 units. We swept the board with the
Rays, the Yankees and the Phillies and then some good test
(03:31):
cases in preseason football. Cuz remember the Falcons plus 5
1/2 they open getting I believe 3 1/2.
They got all the up to 5 1/2. I played the 5 1/2 but I
mentioned on the pod if you could still get the hook on the
3 1/2 maybe some value there. Will they close 2 1/2 and then
up losing by three? So if you got 3 1/2 for better
you cash for the Falcons and then Seahawks.
(03:52):
One of our favorite moves of alltime, the dog to fave line movie
open as a dog you flip to a favorite Seahawks money line
came through so big fat 5 and O Friday night what you love to
see. But anyway guys, let's waste no
further time. Get right back into what we do
when we do what we love to do. Making sharp, data-driven plays
with our head and not our heart based on monitoring and studying
(04:13):
the betting market. So first play for me.
Let's go out to Pittsburgh, 6:40PM Eastern Time, first pitch
where the Pirates are hosting the Toronto Blue Jays now
setting the stage for this one. The Jays come in 73 and 52.
Just took two or three against the Rangers.
Couldn't get the sweep, though. They lost that serious finale
yesterday. 3:50 as a -, 120 homefavorite.
(04:34):
You know, the Pirates 52 and 73 on the year, pretty much the
opposite record. They just dropped two or three
against the cubbies. They lost four to three
yesterday as a + 160 Rd. dog. So for tonight's interleague
series opener, the Jays are going with the ready Kevin
Gozman. He's 8:00 and 9:00 with a 3.79
ERA. Meanwhile, the Buckos are going
with the ready Paul Skeens 7 and92.13 ERA.
(04:57):
So just sitting across the market here.
Well, the skeens on the bump, you know, typically you're going
to be favored. It's rare skeens as a dog, but
we did open Pittsburgh around a -, 120 home favorite, Toronto,
basically around a + 100 row dog.
And it's interesting to me that anytime you see skeens at a low
price, you know, how does the betting market react?
Does the betting market say, man, take advantage of skeens at
(05:20):
a short price? Or is the other thought here,
hey, it's low for a reason, maybe you should bet against
skeens. Well, looks like the latter is
taking place here because Pittsburgh open -120 now they're
down to -110 On the other side, we got Toronto plus 100 down to
-110 So basically we've become apick em game basically -110 both
(05:40):
sides with the line moving toward Toronto.
Now if you look at the splits here on the Jays, they look
pretty good at DraftKings. The Jays are getting 65% of
money line bets, 68% of money line dollars at circa 88% of
money line bets, 94% of money line dollars.
Excuse me. So both books are showing a nice
low bets higher dollar split in favor of Toronto.
(06:04):
Now if Toronto is slightly a dogat some shops they would match
one system that's been really good short dog plus 120 or less
with a line move in their favor that since August 1st is 34 and
2360%. But because of the short price
or even some plus money there, you are a 21% ROI.
(06:24):
Now, I jumped on Toronto at -1 O4 at FanDuel.
So technically that is a dog. But most of the market is -110
both sides. So definitely shop around, try
to get that best number. I'm going to bank on Toronto's
offense hopefully showing up andgetting to skeins more on him in
a second. He's come back down to earth a
little bit in the month of August.
But Toronto has an edge at the plate.
They've hit 269 as a team, 148 home runs, 615 runs scored.
(06:49):
Pittsburgh has hit 232 as a team, only 88 homers, 439 runs
scored. Now, the Jays are also number
one in baseball batting average against righty's, hitting 268.
They're also hitting 268 on the road, second best in baseball.
You know, Pirates hitting 237 against righty's, that ranks
26th in baseball and only hitting 249 at home, that ranks
(07:10):
17th. So Jays have been really good
against righty's and on the road.
Obviously Pirates have struggledagainst righties in at home.
Now, I mentioned Skeens a secondago, but in the month of August
he's made three starts. 4.8 Oera, you don't expect that with
Skeens. He's going up eight runs in 15
innings pitched. Meanwhile, Kevin Gozman, maybe
part of the line move toward Toronto is, you know Gozman's
(07:32):
pitch very well. He's giving up two earned runs
or less and seven of his last nine starts.
Then you look at last 10, Toronto six and four, they're
hitting 287 as a team, 430 team ERA.
The other hand, you got Pittsburgh three and seven over
the last 10 hitting 224 with a 5.87 team ERA.
So we open schemes, schemes as afavorite, but the sign has
(07:53):
fallen and basically come down to a pick em.
I'm going to follow that sharp line move.
I'm going to back Gozman. I'm going to hope Toronto's bats
can get a few runs across against Skeens and let's fingers
crossed that Gozman can pitch another gem for us.
So first play on the board for me guys.
I got Toronto minus one O 4 at FanDuel.
Again, shop around. A lot of books are mostly now
-110 next one for you. 6:40 PM Eastern Time, first pitch, Saint
(08:18):
Louis Cardinals visiting the Miami Marlins.
Now coming into this, we got theCardinals 61 and 64 just got
swept by the Yankees. They lost that series finale
yesterday. 8 to 4 is a + 130 home dog.
You know the Marlins 59 and 65. They just dropped two or three
against the Red Sox. Avoided the sweep with A53 win
yesterday. Came through as a + 215 Rd. dog.
(08:41):
Don't don't get me started on that game because Sox are up 3
to 2. They couldn't pitch Chapman
because he had pitched the two previous nights and they blew
the lead and lost. And I'm a Red Sox fan, but more
importantly, I have Red Sox win total over 85 and a halfs.
That was annoying. Anyway, pitching matchup for
tonight. Cards are going with the lefty
Matthew Liberator. He's 6 and 10, four point O 8
(09:02):
ERA. You know the fish are going to
go with the righty Yuri Perez. He's five and three with a 3.58
ERA. What do we see across the market
here? Well, Miami opened around a -,
130 -, 135 home favorite Saint Louis, around a + 115 Rd. dog.
And not the hugest or biggest steam move, you know, in the
world here. But we have seen this line creep
(09:22):
up further toward Miami. They've gone from -130 -, 135 up
to around -140 now. Some shops even as high as -145
I jumped on Miami -142 I believethat's still available now Bet
MGM. So shop around, try to find that
lowest price if you want to playthe fish with me.
But aside from this line move toward Miami, they were pretty
(09:44):
good bet split at Circa out in Vegas that caters to wise guys.
78% of money line bets, 95% of money line dollars.
Then you get to some system matches lit up on Miami.
I got 3. Three good ones here Monday.
Home teams of the line move in their favor. 66 and 39. 63% on
the year, 9% ROI. Both teams below 500 take the
(10:07):
home favorite off a win. This would also match with
Miami. 67 and 3764 percent, 5% ROI.
Non division home favorites -150or less off a win getting line
movement in their favor. Those teams are 88 and 49 this
year 64% but a 14% ROI because of the short ish short ish
price. Again you got to be -150 or
(10:29):
less. Couple other angles of Miami
correlative betting favorite lowtotal few amount of expected run
score more likely to come from quote UN quote the better team
and we have Miami as a additional betting system play
non division favorite just classic.
Lack of familiarity typically benefits the better team.
And I do want to back Perez on the road.
He hasn't been great 4.42 ERA but at home 2 point O 8 ERA.
(10:53):
So hopefully the Saint Louis Cardinals team just got swept by
the Yankees again, got a lot of injuries falling out of the
race. The Marlins are kind of pesky.
Let's see if they can get it done and get a win for us
tonight. I am on Miami -142 at Bet MGM.
But again, shop around some books or a lot of books now -145
late night sweat. If you're on the East Coast like
(11:14):
me. Let's go out to Los Angeles or I
guess Anaheim technically, wherethe Halos are hosting the
Cincinnati Reds, 9:38 PM EasternTime, first pitch.
So let's set the stage for this one.
The Reds come in 65 and 60. Just lost two or three against
the Brewers, but they avoided the sweep and finally ended that
insane. You got to tip your cap.
(11:35):
The Brewers 14 wins in a row. Reds took them down 3 to 2
yesterday and extras came through as a -, 125 home
favorite. You know all the Angels 60 and
64. Just dropped two or three
against the Athletics. Also avoided the sweep with an
extra innings win yesterday. 11 to 5.
Came through as a -, 110 Rd. pick em.
So pitching match up here for tonight.
(11:56):
Reds are going to go with the righty Brady Singer.
He's 10 and nine. 4.31 ERA. Angels, meanwhile, going with
fellow ready Victor Medeiros, O&O 5.63 ERA.
What do we see across the markethere?
Well, not a huge move, but we open up basically a pick em -110
both sides. And yet we've seen this line
move a little bit up toward the red legs.
(12:17):
The legs have gone from -110 up to -115.
I got a -, 115 at Caesar's. A lot of books, though, are -116
-, 118 -, 120. So Caesar's looks to be the best
price right now, but about a 5 cent move in favor of the Reds.
If you look at the splits of DraftKings, 70% of bets, 85% of
dollars on Cincinnati. So good low bets, higher dollar
(12:40):
split. Here's a system.
I know it's a small sample, but since August 1st, short
favorites -120 or less with a line move in their favor.
They're 11 and 761%. But because of those short
prices, 15% ROI, that would match with the red Red legs
tonight. The Reds do have the better
bats. They're hitting 247 on the year,
(13:01):
570 runs scored. Angels hitting two, 33551 runs
scored. Also two righties on the bump.
Since he is hitting 254 against righties, that's the 6th best
batting average in baseball. Angels are hitting 234 against
righties. That ranks 28th.
A little bit more on these pitchers.
Brady Singer, I remember he was,I think a straight up trade for
(13:23):
Jonathan India when the Royals made that move.
But he is, he's pitched really well in the month of August.
He's made three starts, 2.3 O ERA, only giving up four earned
runs and 15.2 And he's pitched, he's allowed one earned run or
less in three of his last four starts.
So singers throwing the ball well.
Meanwhile, again, raise your hand if you've never heard of
(13:43):
Victor Medeiros. I hadn't until today, but Victor
Medeiros is making his second career start, 11th career MLB
appearance. So you got a veteran pitching
well singer and a new kid going up against a Reds team that hits
righties very well since he alsohas a better bullpen team area
of 3.96. Angels have the fifth worst
(14:05):
bullpen 4.84. So you add it all up guys.
This isn't a 10/20/30 cent steammove, but suddenly the line has
moved towards Cincy. Got good bet splits.
Hopefully the better pitcher on the bump and let's see if we can
fade Mederos and have the red legs bats get to this this young
kid. But add it all up guys, I'm
going cincy -115 at Caesar's again, shop around some books as
(14:28):
high as -120 so Jays, Miami Reds, let's try to get 2 out of
three of these. Now I know you're on pins and
needles for this NFL prop bet, but I, I landed on this prop bet
that really jumped out to me. So let me just say right off the
bat, I'm not a huge season long prop person for kind of a
(14:49):
variety of reasons. I think you can fall in love
with a lot of different guys, a lot of different numbers.
Obviously football is, you know,100% injury sport.
So you know, often times if you're taking, you know, running
back to go over, he could easilytear his ACL or get hurt.
So I think, and again, I'm not going to say it's safe because
you're never safe. Sports betting is always hard.
It's hard to win, but one thing I do look at is quarterbacks and
(15:14):
they're passing touchdowns. So the angle here to me is that
of all the players on the field,you know, quarterbacks are
protected the most. A lot of Q BS tend to play the
entire season. And if you can kind of take
advantage of maybe a player that's on the rise with a lot of
continuity in terms of, you know, same coaching staff,
(15:34):
returning offensive lineman, same weapons, maybe you add a
weapon or two. That always appeals to me.
But then also I like to play different sports books off each
other. So you got to remember if you
are playing, you know, Patrick Mahomes over passing yards or I
don't know, you know, Jalen Hurts over touchdowns, you got
to remember that not every book is going to have the exact same
(15:56):
number. So maybe you identify a play
that you like. You know, I didn't have access
to the one I'm about to tell youin terms of the splits, like
bets and dollars, some prop bets.
You know, I get some of that information from my friend John
Ewing at Bet MGM. So it's not like a low bets,
higher dollars line move play, but this is a player that I'm
high on that we can take advantage of one book offering a
(16:18):
much better price than the entire market.
So that player is Bo Nicks quarterback, remember wasn't he?
South Carolina, then Oregon obviously, and now going into a
second year with the Denver Broncos, led the Broncos to the
playoffs last year, had a fantastic year.
His over under passing touchdowns.
(16:39):
Now if you look at pretty much every book across the market,
DraftKings, FanDuel, Bet, MGM, Caesar's, all the major ones,
his over under passing touchdowns is 24 1/2.
So if you play the over, he needs 25 passing touchdowns.
Now that is juiced up over at a quite a few shops -115 -, 120 If
(17:00):
you look last year he had 29 passing touchdowns.
Now looking at maybe an improvement from Bonex.
One, I like the fact that he's an older rookie.
I know the knock on him, you know, getting drafted was he, I
think he has a rookie. He was like 24, but older
rookie, but also very experienced.
Played a ton of games in college.
I think he started like 60 games, something like that.
(17:23):
But a mature kid, experienced quarterback.
What I really like is he's goinginto year 2 and also he's in
year 2 with Sean Payton. So Sean Payton is one of the
best offensive minds play colorsin football.
Obviously had a great year at Bonex as a rookie.
Now your year 2 experience with me with Sean Payton year 2IN
general, you're no longer a rookie.
(17:44):
You kind of know what to expect.He's pretty much bringing back
his entire receiving core from last year.
So Courtland Sutton had a big year.
Mims was the deep threat that cashed a a bunch of big bombs.
And then also I I called this kid Valet, but it's, I think
it's valet. He's returning.
And then also the the Broncos added Evan Ingram, pretty good
(18:07):
tight end. If he can stay healthy, he's a
pretty good red zone target. So all this I'm saying for the
important reason of I'm high on Bonex going into this year.
However, here's the thing, if you made me take over 24 1/2,
yeah, I still kind of like that.But here's why you got to do
your due. Do your due diligence.
Say that 1010 times fast. I was looking at every book and
(18:30):
I landed on ESPN Bet and I double checked it right before
the pod started to make sure thenumber still available.
ESPN Bet is not 24 1/2. ESPN bet is 22 1/2 and it's 22
1/2. Now here's the thing.
It is juiced up a little bit. It's over 22 1/2 at -145 S
(18:51):
again. You could play him 24 1/2 and
save some juice -115 -, 120. Or you could spend, you know,
2025, thirty cents more and saveyourself by only having to get
23 or more passing touchdowns. Like let's say Bo Nicks finishes
the year with 23 or 24 passing touchdowns.
(19:14):
That means that if you play the over 24 1/2 at FanDuel
DraftKings, all the major books,you lose.
If you pay a little more juice, he lands 23 or 24, you cash at
ESPN, bet over 22 1/2. So that's my play.
I know it's a little juicy, but you know, I can't tell you how
many plays, especially with propbets where, you know, I could
(19:36):
have paid a little more juice toget an extra yard or I'll never
forget Bryce Young. I think I had him over 199 1/2
passing yards last year and I think he landed 199.
And I could have paid a little more juice and gotten like over
196 1/2 and I didn't. And from that point forward, I'm
unless the juice is -200 OK, that's too much.
But as long as it's not that crazy, I'm willing to pay a
(19:58):
little more juice to get a better number to protect myself.
Because name of the game is cashing tickets, so you're
welcome to ride with me if you'dlike, but Bonex, over 22 1/2
passing touchdowns at ESPN bet at the price of -145 that is a
play that I put in over the weekend.
So that about does it for episode 338 of the ASG Pod on a
(20:21):
Monday. As always, this is the part of
the pod where we wrap things up.We start first by saying thank
you. Thank you for taking the time
out of your day, out of your busy lives to pull up a chair to
the virtual bar and sweat some sharp, data-driven plays with
me. If you do enjoy the pod, you
value the insights, you enjoy the breakdowns, please could you
give this podcast a five star review on Spotify or iTunes?
(20:43):
If you want to leave a nice review comment, hit the follow
button. Recommend the pod to a friend.
That would also be amazing. Next, if you enjoy the style of
betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp contrarian betting folks
saying what the market is telling us, not what our biases
are telling us. If this style of betting has
appealed to you, you want to learn more about data-driven
betting, but more importantly, you want to get ready for the
(21:04):
NFL season. It's going to be here before you
know it. It's pretty much here now.
I would love for you guys to go to Amazon.com and type in the
NFL sharp betting playbook. That's my baby.
My baby is now a week old and we're still #1 new release on
Amazon. So I want to thank everyone who
has bought the NFL Sharp bettingplaybook.
(21:25):
If you do want to pick up a copy, it would mean a lot to me.
And if you would like to give ita five star review and a little
little comment on on Amazon, that would really help us to to
stay up there at the top of the ranks.
I also have another book, the NFL sharp, the everything guide
to sports betting. I get I got to get my books
right. I name them right.
That's the first book ever wrote.
It's great for just anyone who'sreally getting brand new into
(21:47):
sports betting, kind of lays outthe whole data-driven model.
But if you would like to buy theNFL Sharp Betting Playbook or
the Everything Guide to Sports betting, bring them to the
sports book. I'll sign them for you.
I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale and we'll sweat some games
together. That sounds pretty good to me.
Next, have you downloaded Rhythmor Juice Reel yet?
Well, if you haven't, now's the time because it's about to get
(22:08):
crazy up in here with football returning and then basketball
and before you know it, hockey. But Rhythm fantastic for their
AI backed models and predictionsfor game bets and player props.
Obviously you got MLB and WNBA right now, but we do have
college football systems alreadylighting up for week 0.
And I do have an announcement coming in a couple days with
Rhythm. We're putting the final touches
(22:30):
on our schedule for this fall. I'm excited to work with Rhythm
once again this year and then also go download Juice Reel if
you enjoy the pod, it's free. It cost you nothing to listen to
this pod. If you would like to support the
podcast. I would love it if you wanted to
sign up to get the all Systems Go official best bet picks from
the Juice Reel app. It costs $4.99 a week, so
(22:53):
basically less than a dollar a day to get the plays and you can
tailfade do whatever you like but they are available to you on
the Juice Reel app but you can again sign up and get them.
You also get the Robo Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush
indicators, the arbitrage plays,the shop for the best line
futures. All available when you download
Juice Reel. So download rhythm, download
Juice Reel and you'll be off andrunning making sharp bets.
(23:17):
Next you have a live odds page. If you don't, you need one.
It's so critical that if you want to be a day driven better,
you need access to real, accurate, reliable data.
And a lot of that comes in the form of a live odds page.
Bet splits are also really important to me.
But a live odds page there's a lot of them out there, but the
best one around is odds logic. So give it a shot with a 7 day
(23:37):
free trial, 50% off your first month.
They got all the major sports books.
They got the sharp books like pinnacle, all the games live
scoring, live in game wagering. You can identify steam.
The odds get lit up in red if anything is moving.
So he'd be first to know about big, big money hitting the
market. And then you also get full line
history and and of course, shopping for the best price.
(23:58):
So give it a shot, 7 day free trial, 50% off your first month
by going to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
So that about does it for episode 338 of the ASG Pod on a
big Monday. As always guys, I'll leave you
with two final thoughts. Whether I see you at the Borgata
in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
(24:19):
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut at the
Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park, Casino, MGM Springfield,
the Nash and my neck of the woods.
Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
down, where Billy Walter sends his number runners.
Where the lowest true as possible is found at the South
Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
(24:39):
When you catch a big ticket at Circa, you're going to show me a
nice little little 5 and a sweepfrom Friday's pod raise.
Yankees, Phillies, I hope you got the Falcons 3 1/2 or better.
Seahawks money line. Guess what?
First one's on me, next one's onyou.
We'll post about the book and sweat sharp contrarian plays all
night long. So wish you the best luck.
Everyone have a fantastic Mondaynight.
(25:00):
I'll see if we can get a get a couple winners here.
Let's try to go get 2 out of three and Major League Baseball.
But as always, remember, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet
against the public, place yourself on the side of the
house. Always be with the smart money,
never against it. Will smart money win every time?
No, unfortunately it won't because betting is hard.
It's unpredictable, but if we can consistently place ourselves
(25:21):
in that sweet spot against the house with the pros, with
against the public, get that COVand again flat that be
disciplined with our bankroll, then we're going to come out on
top long term. So have a great Monday,
everybody. Be right back at it tomorrow for
episode 339 of the All systems Go sports betting podcast
powered by rhythm. Good luck everybody and enjoy
(25:43):
the Monday sweats.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
My Favorite Murder with Karen Kilgariff and Georgia Hardstark
My Favorite Murder is a true crime comedy podcast hosted by Karen Kilgariff and Georgia Hardstark. Each week, Karen and Georgia share compelling true crimes and hometown stories from friends and listeners. Since MFM launched in January of 2016, Karen and Georgia have shared their lifelong interest in true crime and have covered stories of infamous serial killers like the Night Stalker, mysterious cold cases, captivating cults, incredible survivor stories and important events from history like the Tulsa race massacre of 1921. My Favorite Murder is part of the Exactly Right podcast network that provides a platform for bold, creative voices to bring to life provocative, entertaining and relatable stories for audiences everywhere. The Exactly Right roster of podcasts covers a variety of topics including historic true crime, comedic interviews and news, science, pop culture and more. Podcasts on the network include Buried Bones with Kate Winkler Dawson and Paul Holes, That's Messed Up: An SVU Podcast, This Podcast Will Kill You, Bananas and more.
The Joe Rogan Experience
The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.