August 19, 2025 • 25 mins
In Episode 339, Josh dishes out a 3-pack of MLB plays for Tuesday night, plus Josh announces his new contest partnership with Splash Sports.
Josh's new book "The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook" is OUT NOW! Purchase your copy today
The ASG podcast is free. If you'd like to support the podcast, sign up to receive the official best bets for $4.99 per week exclusively on Juice Reel. Just click this link.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:19):
Hello, and welcome to episode 339 of the All Systems Go sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena,
guys, as the early portion of our week rolls on.
(00:42):
One day closer to the final weekof NFL preseason.
One day closer to the return of college football.
Marred. Been looking at a couple lines
here coming out for what is it on Saturday, Week zero.
I noticed that there was some movement toward Iowa State.
Mentioned this yesterday. Plus 3 1/2 down to three.
I think the hook is still available, I believe in FanDuel.
Plus 3 1/2 with Iowa State, a pretty good, pretty good line
(01:05):
movement and splits in their favor.
And then also a dog to fave linemove toward Hawaii, getting 2
1/2 and now laying 2 1/2 againstStanford.
So thinking might those might beour two early plays.
I haven't been them yet. I want to see how kind of the
bets build up between now and Saturday.
But it's just great to be able to talk about college football.
Then of course, one day closer to NFL Week 1 we're having, I've
(01:28):
been looking at the lines a little bit.
It's still very early. I want to get through the
preseason. But man, this is the time of the
year where things are heating upand it's a great time to be a
sports better looking toward today, guys, we got a three pack
of MLB plays. So right back to Major League
Baseball. But then I have a big
announcement I want to make and actually just tweeted about this
a second ago. So I'm going to tell you about
(01:48):
my big announcement here, which is a new partnership with a
really cool opportunity for you guys to to make some money.
And I'm partnering with a coupleguys that I really love and
respect and I'm really, really afan of what they're doing.
So I'll tell you about that in one second.
Looking back toward yesterday, guys looking to bounce back.
Went 1 and 2 -, 1.1 units. Had a nice win late night with
(02:10):
the Red Legs. Got a great pitching performance
from Brady Singer and able to hang on four to one.
Unfortunately, Toronto had a 2 to one lead and then got blank
the rest of the way and lost 5:00 to 2:00.
So that wasn't fun. And then also Miami, they tied
that game up late and then just got rolled late innings.
So both Miami and Toronto let usdown.
So looking to go, looking to bounce back, go 2 and one of
(02:32):
their plays today to get back ontrack.
Now it's time for before we get to Major League Baseball.
My big announcement so here hereit is guys there's a lot in the
pipeline and I will actually have I believe another big
announcement for tomorrow, but I'm kind of lining up my my
football season who I'm working with different betting
opportunities money making opportunities and I'm really
(02:54):
proud to announce that I have partnered with splash sports.
Now. If you've never heard of Splash
Sports, you can give them a follow at Splash Sports under
Score on Twitter. But Splash Sports is super cool.
So basically what they do is they offer paid fantasy contests
and games of skill like Survivorand Pick em.
And the really interesting thingis they allow users to compete
(03:18):
against each other and not the house.
And Splash is really the largestgaming platform for private
contest. So basically when you want to
play against your friends or other sports betters, you may
not know them, but they're probably similar to you, not the
house you go to Splash Sports. So Splash Sports was created by
my buddy Daniel Childs, who I was introduced to a couple weeks
(03:38):
ago through my friend James Santor who is now working with
Splash Sports. And they're saying, you know
what Josh, we should get you into Splash Sports.
You got you got a couple followers on Twitter and you got
a kind of a big group of community of sports betters.
So let's see if we can bring them over to Splash.
I bet if they bet on sports, they probably like betting
contests. So I have now created 2 contests
(04:01):
for the upcoming football season. 1 is a Survivor contest.
So this, you know, is probably, you know about it.
Now I'll admit this isn't the Circa Survivor that's going to,
you know, if you win, you get, Idon't know, $10 million, but the
entry fee is much lower. Circa Survivor, you want to
enter, it's $1000. The Applebaum NFL Survivor
Contest through Splash Sports, it's 25 bucks, 25 bucks to
(04:25):
enter. It's winner take all.
The winner gets $11,250. So there's up to 500 entries.
Obviously you got to pick one team to win and survive in
advance. And if by the end of the regular
season it's, you know, five people are tied in first place,
then you'll split the 11,250. But it's really cool because it
(04:45):
also gives you a lot of data on like if you do a Yahoo One or
ESPN and they'll tell you like the percentage of people have
picked this team or that team. There's a lot of great Intel.
So this is an opportunity for you guys.
Again, I'm not competing it. I'm hosting the contest, so I
can't compete, but you want to enter 25 bucks, Really, really
not too much there. You might spend 25 bucks on
(05:05):
breakfast this morning. So enter 25 bucks.
You could win up to $11,250. You got to win.
You got to move on, survive in advance.
But I would welcome everyone andinvite you all to join the NFL
Survivor contest hosted by myself.
It's called, quote UN quote, theApplebaum NFL Survivor.
So I just tweeted about this with the link so you can follow
(05:27):
me on Twitter at Josh under score insights.
Click that link, put your 25 bucks in boom, enter the
contest. I believe you can enter as many
as 5 entries. So if you look at yes, you can
have as as as many as 5 entries.So you could, you know, put in
what is it 125 bucks and do fiveof them do as many as you want.
The deadline to enter obviously is the 7th of September when
(05:50):
obviously you got a get ready for the the season to start.
But I would invite everyone to join and you'll get all the
rules. You can join Splash and there's
other contests you can do, but Inow have a survivor contest.
The Applebaum NFL Survivor 25 bucks entry up to five entries.
You can win 11,250 bucks and wouldn't that be nice if you
turn 25 bucks into 11,250. Now my second contest that I'd
(06:14):
love for you to join caters to some college football betters.
So if you like college football,this is the Applebaum CFB Pick
Em Contest $25 entry. You can do up to five entries
and what you got to do. The one caveat here is its top
25 teams, so you'll be able to pick between any game involving
(06:34):
a top 25 team. You got to pick five of them
each week and the winner. First place gets 3375 bucks, 2nd
place 2250 bucks, 3rd $1687.00 all the way to to 10th place.
10th place you win $337.00. So if you are a avid college
(06:54):
football better and you would like to test your knowledge and
you like to compete in this poolagain $25 entry around 3375 for
basically exactly 3375 to the winner and then staggered
payouts below. But this is my second contest,
so I'm really excited to partnerwith Splash Sports and it just
allows sports betters another money making opportunity, you
(07:16):
know, to to get into contest. And again, there are a lot of
betters who love contest there alot of betters who aren't big in
the contest. They like the game matchups.
But either way, it's football season.
We're going to bet on NFL. We're going to bet on college
football. Here's an opportunity for you
guys to join a couple contest. NFL survivor and college
football. Pick them.
And again, if you go to my Twitter at Josh under Score
(07:38):
Insights, you'll get the links, you'll get all of the
information, the details, the rules, but it's pretty
straightforward. Again, up to five entries for
both $25 entry, entry fee. And you could, you could make
some good money here. And again, it's not circa, but
circa is $1000 to enter. This is 25 bucks.
So really catering to, you know,just just regular betters like
(08:00):
or I guess wise guys or people who want to become wise guys.
So I'm really looking forward tothis and I invite you all to
join. And if you do have any questions
about it, you can always shoot me a direct message on Twitter
at Josh under score insights. So again, meet splash sports,
join the contest, and I hope hope one or many of you are able
to win some money. Now that being said, let's get
(08:22):
back to what we doing, what we love to do, which is betting on
sports breaking down games from a data-driven sharp contrain
perspective. So without further ado, 3 pack
and MLB, let's try to go 2 and 1eke out a winning day.
So first one on the board for me.
I want to go to a relatively early match up. 6:45 PM Eastern
Time, Seattle Mariners visiting the Philadelphia Phillies now
(08:45):
setting the stage for this one. The Phills are 72 and 53.
They took last night's interleague series opener 12 to
seven, came through as a -115 home favorite pitching match up
for tonight. In the rematch, we got the
Mariners who are 68 and 58 goingwith the righty Bryce Miller.
He's 2 and 55.75.73 ERA fills meanwhile are going to go with
(09:06):
the lefty Christopher Sanchez. He's 11 and four with a 2.45
ERA. So what are you sitting across
the market here? Well, I hope you read the sharp
report for visa.com that are right.
Or maybe you follow the all systems go best bet picks from
the Juice Real app for $4.99 a week.
But this game opened Philly -165at home Seattle around a + 140
(09:26):
Rd. dog. And at the time I jumped on the
Phillies because they got steamed up -165 all the way up
to -185 So I'm like man, 20 centsteam move, let's go.
Then I as I'm writing the sharp report, Philly gets steamed up
all the way to -200 some shops -2 O 5 even -210 So you got to
(09:47):
look at it one of two ways. 1 the price is getting more
expensive, but #2 it's getting more expensive for a reason
because wise guys continue to bet Philadelphia.
So I'm on the Phillies here again.
I got a -184 if you want to ridewith me now around -200 -, 205
But if you look at the splits atCirco, they look really good on
the Phillies. 71% of money line bets, 99% of money line dollars.
(10:10):
Just a huge low bets, higher dollar split in favor of the
Phills at home. Now we get to our system
matches, interleague home favorites in the second game of
a series after winning the firstgame.
They're 45 and 2465 percent, 7% ROI this year.
The Phillies, by the way, 42 and15, a 74% win rate, 15% ROI when
(10:32):
they're a favorite, getting linemovement in their directions
when they're expected to win andthe markets moving them and
become more of a favorite. They are.
They're even better. Now Philly would have that
interleague favorite value, lackof familiarity typically
benefits quote UN quote the better team.
And then also Phillies in the spot will be a correlative
betting favorite low total. So we have in the situation a -,
(10:54):
200 favorite now with a low total of 8 fair amount of
expected runs scored more likelyto come from again, quote UN
quote that better team. Now I want to back Sanchez.
If you've never seen this guy pitch, he is a very tall, wiry
guy, but he's throwing the ball great this year, especially in
the month of August, he has a 1.8 O ERA and three August
starts. He's given up 1 earned run or
less and eight of his last ten starts.
(11:17):
He's 5 and O with a 2.33 ERA at home.
And meanwhile he'll be going up against Bryce Miller and Bryce
Miller, number one he's getting,he just got activated off the
injured list. He hasn't started since June
6th. Hopefully he'll be rusty, but
also on the road this year he's only one and three with a 6.38
ERA. Phillies, meanwhile, really good
home team, 38 and 21 Mariners 31and 33 on the road and Phillies
(11:41):
just got an influx to their lineup.
They just got Alec Boneback, whoI think went yard last night,
but in the spot guys, big steam toward Philly.
Maybe you read the sharp report or jumped on Philly with the
Juice Reel. All systems go.
Best bet. That was posted earlier today.
I got Philly -184 again, if you're playing it with me now,
you're looking at around -200 -,2 O 5 at FanDuel.
(12:03):
And oh, by the way, Robo Jackson, our friend, the hardest
work and Botta Juice Reel, he has this as a best bet.
So that's good too, that he's also in the Phillies.
Next game up, 7:10 PM Eastern Time, first pitch, the Baltimore
Orioles visiting the Boston Red Sox.
Now the Orioles who are 58 and 67 on the year, they took last
night's series opener six to three, came through as a plus
(12:26):
one O 5 row dog. For tonight's matchup, the
Orioles are going to go with theready Tomo Yuki Sugano.
He's 10 and five, 4.13 ERA. Meanwhile, the Sox who are 68
and 58, they're going to go withthe fellow ready Walker Bueller.
He's seven and seven with a 5.43ERA.
So what are you sitting across the market here?
Well, this game opened. Red Sox listed around 8 -, 125
(12:49):
-, 130 Home favorite Baltimore round A + 110 Rd. dog when you
see nothing but steam in favor of the Red Sox.
Red Sox have now gotten steamed up to around -140 -, 145.
I jumped on the Red Sox -140 at Caesars.
So that was good to see. And again, get trying to get the
best price as always. But if you look at the splits,
(13:11):
aside from the move on the Red Sox, Red Sox are getting 64% of
money line bets, 77% of money line dollars.
At Circa, they are getting 56% of bets, 98% of money line
dollars. So both DraftKings and Circa
showing a really good low bets, higher dollar split in favor of
the Red Sox. Red Sox by the way, are 16 and
(13:32):
576 percent, 2527% ROI at home since July 1st.
That makes them the second best home team in baseball since that
time frame. Red Sox also hopefully we'll get
to Sugano tonight because their bats couldn't really do anything
against Rodgers last night. But the Red Sox do have the
better offense overall, hitting two 53629 runs scored.
(13:54):
Baltimore hitting two 41543 runsscored.
Red Sox are also hitting 262 at Fenway.
That's the 6th best home battingaverage in baseball.
Orioles meanwhile only hitting 229 on the road.
That ranks 27th. Now I know Walker Bueller, to me
as a Red Sox fan, he's kind of in a disappointment.
Again, CRA is basically 5 1/2, but he has pitched a little bit
(14:16):
better recently. He's given up 3 earned runs or
less than six of his last seven starts.
And at home he's three and two with a 4.35 ERA on the road,
four and five with a 6.46 ERA. So hopefully being at home is a
benefit to Bueller tonight. Red Sox do have the better
bullpen. They have a team ERA of 3.5 O.
That's the third best in baseball.
(14:37):
Baltimore has an ERA of 4.721 ofthe worst in baseball.
And then just classic home Rd. splits.
Orioles 28 and 37 on the road. Red Sox 41 and 24 at home.
So we got some movement toward the Red Sox in a bounce back
spot after losing last night. Really good bat splits,
especially at Circa. I'm back.
I'm back in the Sox at Fenway, where they've been very, very
(14:58):
good all year and especially last couple months.
I got the Red Sox -140 at Caesar's again.
Shop around. You have some books as high as
-145 last bite of the night. Anyone want to stay up late with
me? I believe this game is on MLB
Network if you want to watch it.But let's look at the Cleveland
Guardians visiting the Arizona Diamondbacks 9:40 PM Eastern
(15:18):
Time. First pitch now going into it,
The Guardians are 64 and 60 on the year.
They won last night's interleague series opener. 3 to
one came through as a + 100 row dog.
For tonight's rematch, the Guardians are going to go with
the ready Tanner Bybee nine and nine 4.54 ERA.
Meanwhile, the snakes who are 60and 66, they're sending out the
lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, five and seven 5.4 O ERA.
(15:42):
So what are you sitting across the market for this interleague
matchup? Well, the snakes open this one
around a -, 115 home favorite Cleveland around A+.
Sorry, a -, 1 O five row dog. And what's normal to me is that
and really this is the big part of the cap for me.
The public is on Cleveland. They have the better record.
They're above 500, Arizona's below 500 and they won last
(16:03):
night. And yet they're a dog here.
So public says take the trendy dog.
The wrong team is favored. However, even though you're
getting nearly 60% of money linetickets on Cleveland, this line
hasn't fallen back down toward apick em.
It's actually gone further up toward Arizona.
Arizona has gone from -115 up toaround -125.
(16:24):
I jumped on the D backs at -118 at FanDuel, so you might be able
to still get that number at thispoint, but a lot of books are up
to -125. But aside from a fade the trendy
dog reverse line move on the snakes, we've got a lot of
systems on Arizona short home favorites -140 or less with a
sub 500 record playing an opponent with an above 500
(16:45):
record. So kind of the buy low, sell
high fishy play. That system is 52 and 3957
percent, 4% ROI this year, sweetspot home favorites -125 to -140
playing an opponent who made theplayoffs the previous year.
Again, another kind of buy low system that is 62 and 41 this
season, 60 percent, 6% ROI. Snakes would have that
(17:08):
interleague favorite value. So lack of familiarity
benefiting, quote UN quote. The team that's expected to win
and they do have the better offense.
Now I know they traded Naylor and Eugenio Suarez, but on the
year they're hitting two 5000 and 76 home runs, 619 runs
scored. Cleveland, meanwhile, hitting
two 27131 homers, 491 runs scored.
(17:28):
And believe it or not, I want toback Rodriguez over Bybee.
Bybee in his three August starts, ERA of 5.74, he's given
up ten runs and 15.2 innings pitched.
And at home he's been good 3.19 ERA on the road 5.59.
Meanwhile, E Rod used to pitch for the Red Sox.
Overall he's five and seven 5.4 O ERA.
(17:50):
But he has pitched better the month of August, 4.15 ERA and
three starts and Arizona is 3 and O in his last three starts.
Lastly, we do have Cleveland going up against a lefty in the
rod. They're only hitting 225 against
lefties this year. That's 27th in baseball.
So Publix on Cleveland, but the lines going to Arizona.
I'm back in Arizona here guys, give me the snakes.
(18:12):
I got a -, 118 at FanDuel. And shop around.
Some books, most books as high as -125 So that about does it
for episode 339 of the All Systems Go sports betting
podcast powered by rhythm. This is the part of the pod, of
course, where we wrap things up.And I start first by saying
thank you. Thank you for taking the time
out of your day, out of your busy lives to pull up a chair to
(18:34):
the virtual bar and sweat some sharp data-driven breakdowns in
me each day. Again, we've been grinding
through the dog days of summer, but late at the end of the
tunnel is football season about to take place here?
But as always, guys, if you do enjoy this pod, could you please
give it a five star review on Spotify or iTunes?
If you'd like to click the follow button or leave a nice
comment under the review sectionor recommend the pod to a
(18:56):
friend, I would also very much appreciate that.
Next, if you enjoy the style of betting breakdown, data-driven,
sharp contrarian betting. Will every sharp contrarian play
win? No, because betting is hard.
It's unpredictable. But if we know, if we place
ourself on against the the public with the house, with the
pros long term, that's really the forest amongst the trees
(19:17):
marathon, not a Sprint attitude and philosophy that we take.
So if you do want to learn more about data-driven betting, maybe
you've kind of learned to reallyfocus on line movement or bat
splits or system matches. You've seen some some positive
results here and you're betting games that you know your old
self that just bet on gut instinct and bias would never
have played. Now you're cashing tickets by
(19:38):
focusing on numbers and not yourown bias.
Well, if you'd like to learn more about data-driven betting,
I have two books that I'd love for you to purchase.
Go to Amazon.com, type in the NFL Sharp betting playbook.
It's now about a week old, a little more than a week old, but
we're still #1 in new releases. Please continue to send me a
photo if you've purchased the book, I'll retweet it.
(19:58):
And if you'd like to give it a five star review and a nice
little little review comments, afew comments on the Amazon page.
I'd very much appreciate that. I've also written a book called
the The Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
So if you're new to sports betting or you know someone
who's trying to break into betting, doesn't really have a
philosophy and doesn't even knowhow the game is played, that
book is really great for for newbetters and even kind of quote
(20:20):
UN quote intermediate betters aswell.
So buy a copy of the NFL Sharp betting playbook, buy a copy of
the everything guide to sports betting.
And you know what you should do?You should bring them a sports
book. I'll sign them for you.
I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale and we'll sweat some
baseball games together tonight.Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
and Juice Reel yet? Well, if you haven't, now is the
time. Rhythm fantastic for their AI
(20:43):
backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
Of course we do have MLB and WNBA live right now, but we do
have college football live in the Rhythm app.
So you can check out what Rhythmhas to say for Iowa State, K
State or Stanford, Hawaii. And we will have of course NFL
Week 1 popping up shortly and then Juice Reel.
Juice Reel is a great app for a variety of reasons.
(21:04):
I like it for a couple things. One is getting the dollar and
bets breakdowns for everyone whohas synced up their sports books
and place bets. You can get the sharp mush
indicators. The arbitrage plays the shop for
the best line futures, the Robo Jackson AI driven best bet picks
each day, but also bearing the lead here a bit if you want to
support Rhythm or sorry, if you want to support both Juice Reel
(21:28):
and myself. If I can be a little selfish
here, this pod is free. If you would like to sign up to
get the official all systems go best bet picks on the Juice Reel
page for $4.99 a week, you will get for example, today you would
have gotten Philly -184 instead of -200 So again, I consider it
tipping your your podcast host through getting those $4.99 a
(21:49):
week plays. So sign up for Rhythm, sign up
for Juice Reel, give them a fivestar view in the App Store.
You'll be off and running next. Do you have a live odds page?
Well, if you don't, you need one.
If you're day driven better. If you're just kind of a better
in general, you might have a different approach to betting.
That's OK too. But I would pretty much imagine
you got to know where's the market moving?
What are the line open at? What is it currently?
(22:11):
How is it moved in between? Pull up the line history,
identify easily. Teams get lit up in red when
they're getting steamed and the market is changing.
You know the Chiefs are going -21/2 to -3 the whole odds logic.
Live odds page lights up as the market is moving and you can
jump on a book that is slow to adjust.
But the odds logic live odds page, to me, it's the best
around. It's the best overall value in
(22:33):
terms of the price as well. So if you haven't given a shot
yet, I think now is the time to do it.
It's got all sports included, all the major sports books to
track including like Pinnacle and Chris and Bookmaker Circle,
all the big ones that move first.
But if you want to give it a shot I have a promo link for
you. It gives you a 7 day free trial
and 50% off your first month. Just go to oddslogic.com/josh
(22:55):
123. And of course as you mentioned
the pod at the beginning, I havepartnered with Splash Sports.
So enter the NFL survivor contest or the college football
pick em survivor contest. Are not survivor but the pick em
contest. 25 bucks entry. You can win up to 11,250 bucks.
You can get those links from my Twitter page at Josh under score
insights, but that about does itguys for episode 339 of the ASG
(23:19):
pod on a big Tuesday, as always,I'll leave you with two final
thoughts. One, whether I see you at the
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, of
course, the Nash National New Hampshire or the Encore Plainers
Park casino around me. We're out in the desert where
the true grinders get down, where Billy Walters sends his
number runners, where the lowestjuice possible is found at the
(23:41):
South Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
stadium swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
circle, you're going to walk up to me, Blue Jays and Marlins.
We're going to RIP those ticketsup, recycle them.
Don't trash them, recycle them, but at least show me a Reds
ticket. Nice.
Nice to see the Reds come through in Hollywood last night.
So as always, guys, first ones on me, next one's on you will
post about the book. So it's some sharp contrarian
(24:03):
plays all night long. In the end, 1 and 2, two and
one, three and OO and three after a good night, a bad night,
a fantastic night, a terrible night.
Remember, sports betting is hardlosing night.
Don't get down on yourself. There's a reason why betting is
difficult. You got to overcome the element
of unpredictability, human error, overcome these really
sharp lines, beat the juice again.
(24:24):
Anything can happen. That's why they call it
gambling. So don't get down on yourself
when you're struggling, but alsowhen things are going well and
you go 5 and O on Friday night or three and O Saturday, or it
was actually an O and three for me on Sunday, things are going
well. Don't get cocky, don't get
arrogant. Don't assume it's easy and start
to double and triple down. Discipline, bankroll management.
Stick with it Whenever as good as we think when we're hot,
whenever as bad as we think whenwe're cold.
(24:46):
So to me, guys, it's all about even keeled and grinding,
grinding, grinding, grinding long term so we can find games
that fit our model against the public, with the house, with the
pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
If we can do that long term, I'mconfident we're going to be
successful sports bettors. So have a fantastic Tuesday
night, everybody see if we can get some winners in the baseball
(25:07):
diamond and again, go sign up for the Splash Survivor and pick
em contest. And as always, guys, we'll be
right back at it tomorrow for episode 340 of the All Systems
Go sports Betting podcast powered by rhythm.
Good luck everybody and have a fantastic Tuesday night.
Hello, and welcome to episode 339 of the All Systems Go sports
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena,
guys, as the early portion of our week rolls on.
(00:42):
One day closer to the final weekof NFL preseason.
One day closer to the return of college football.
Marred. Been looking at a couple lines
here coming out for what is it on Saturday, Week zero.
I noticed that there was some movement toward Iowa State.
Mentioned this yesterday. Plus 3 1/2 down to three.
I think the hook is still available, I believe in FanDuel.
Plus 3 1/2 with Iowa State, a pretty good, pretty good line
(01:05):
movement and splits in their favor.
And then also a dog to fave linemove toward Hawaii, getting 2
1/2 and now laying 2 1/2 againstStanford.
So thinking might those might beour two early plays.
I haven't been them yet. I want to see how kind of the
bets build up between now and Saturday.
But it's just great to be able to talk about college football.
Then of course, one day closer to NFL Week 1 we're having, I've
(01:28):
been looking at the lines a little bit.
It's still very early. I want to get through the
preseason. But man, this is the time of the
year where things are heating upand it's a great time to be a
sports better looking toward today, guys, we got a three pack
of MLB plays. So right back to Major League
Baseball. But then I have a big
announcement I want to make and actually just tweeted about this
a second ago. So I'm going to tell you about
(01:48):
my big announcement here, which is a new partnership with a
really cool opportunity for you guys to to make some money.
And I'm partnering with a coupleguys that I really love and
respect and I'm really, really afan of what they're doing.
So I'll tell you about that in one second.
Looking back toward yesterday, guys looking to bounce back.
Went 1 and 2 -, 1.1 units. Had a nice win late night with
(02:10):
the Red Legs. Got a great pitching performance
from Brady Singer and able to hang on four to one.
Unfortunately, Toronto had a 2 to one lead and then got blank
the rest of the way and lost 5:00 to 2:00.
So that wasn't fun. And then also Miami, they tied
that game up late and then just got rolled late innings.
So both Miami and Toronto let usdown.
So looking to go, looking to bounce back, go 2 and one of
(02:32):
their plays today to get back ontrack.
Now it's time for before we get to Major League Baseball.
My big announcement so here hereit is guys there's a lot in the
pipeline and I will actually have I believe another big
announcement for tomorrow, but I'm kind of lining up my my
football season who I'm working with different betting
opportunities money making opportunities and I'm really
(02:54):
proud to announce that I have partnered with splash sports.
Now. If you've never heard of Splash
Sports, you can give them a follow at Splash Sports under
Score on Twitter. But Splash Sports is super cool.
So basically what they do is they offer paid fantasy contests
and games of skill like Survivorand Pick em.
And the really interesting thingis they allow users to compete
(03:18):
against each other and not the house.
And Splash is really the largestgaming platform for private
contest. So basically when you want to
play against your friends or other sports betters, you may
not know them, but they're probably similar to you, not the
house you go to Splash Sports. So Splash Sports was created by
my buddy Daniel Childs, who I was introduced to a couple weeks
(03:38):
ago through my friend James Santor who is now working with
Splash Sports. And they're saying, you know
what Josh, we should get you into Splash Sports.
You got you got a couple followers on Twitter and you got
a kind of a big group of community of sports betters.
So let's see if we can bring them over to Splash.
I bet if they bet on sports, they probably like betting
contests. So I have now created 2 contests
(04:01):
for the upcoming football season. 1 is a Survivor contest.
So this, you know, is probably, you know about it.
Now I'll admit this isn't the Circa Survivor that's going to,
you know, if you win, you get, Idon't know, $10 million, but the
entry fee is much lower. Circa Survivor, you want to
enter, it's $1000. The Applebaum NFL Survivor
Contest through Splash Sports, it's 25 bucks, 25 bucks to
(04:25):
enter. It's winner take all.
The winner gets $11,250. So there's up to 500 entries.
Obviously you got to pick one team to win and survive in
advance. And if by the end of the regular
season it's, you know, five people are tied in first place,
then you'll split the 11,250. But it's really cool because it
(04:45):
also gives you a lot of data on like if you do a Yahoo One or
ESPN and they'll tell you like the percentage of people have
picked this team or that team. There's a lot of great Intel.
So this is an opportunity for you guys.
Again, I'm not competing it. I'm hosting the contest, so I
can't compete, but you want to enter 25 bucks, Really, really
not too much there. You might spend 25 bucks on
(05:05):
breakfast this morning. So enter 25 bucks.
You could win up to $11,250. You got to win.
You got to move on, survive in advance.
But I would welcome everyone andinvite you all to join the NFL
Survivor contest hosted by myself.
It's called, quote UN quote, theApplebaum NFL Survivor.
So I just tweeted about this with the link so you can follow
(05:27):
me on Twitter at Josh under score insights.
Click that link, put your 25 bucks in boom, enter the
contest. I believe you can enter as many
as 5 entries. So if you look at yes, you can
have as as as many as 5 entries.So you could, you know, put in
what is it 125 bucks and do fiveof them do as many as you want.
The deadline to enter obviously is the 7th of September when
(05:50):
obviously you got a get ready for the the season to start.
But I would invite everyone to join and you'll get all the
rules. You can join Splash and there's
other contests you can do, but Inow have a survivor contest.
The Applebaum NFL Survivor 25 bucks entry up to five entries.
You can win 11,250 bucks and wouldn't that be nice if you
turn 25 bucks into 11,250. Now my second contest that I'd
(06:14):
love for you to join caters to some college football betters.
So if you like college football,this is the Applebaum CFB Pick
Em Contest $25 entry. You can do up to five entries
and what you got to do. The one caveat here is its top
25 teams, so you'll be able to pick between any game involving
(06:34):
a top 25 team. You got to pick five of them
each week and the winner. First place gets 3375 bucks, 2nd
place 2250 bucks, 3rd $1687.00 all the way to to 10th place.
10th place you win $337.00. So if you are a avid college
(06:54):
football better and you would like to test your knowledge and
you like to compete in this poolagain $25 entry around 3375 for
basically exactly 3375 to the winner and then staggered
payouts below. But this is my second contest,
so I'm really excited to partnerwith Splash Sports and it just
allows sports betters another money making opportunity, you
(07:16):
know, to to get into contest. And again, there are a lot of
betters who love contest there alot of betters who aren't big in
the contest. They like the game matchups.
But either way, it's football season.
We're going to bet on NFL. We're going to bet on college
football. Here's an opportunity for you
guys to join a couple contest. NFL survivor and college
football. Pick them.
And again, if you go to my Twitter at Josh under Score
(07:38):
Insights, you'll get the links, you'll get all of the
information, the details, the rules, but it's pretty
straightforward. Again, up to five entries for
both $25 entry, entry fee. And you could, you could make
some good money here. And again, it's not circa, but
circa is $1000 to enter. This is 25 bucks.
So really catering to, you know,just just regular betters like
(08:00):
or I guess wise guys or people who want to become wise guys.
So I'm really looking forward tothis and I invite you all to
join. And if you do have any questions
about it, you can always shoot me a direct message on Twitter
at Josh under score insights. So again, meet splash sports,
join the contest, and I hope hope one or many of you are able
to win some money. Now that being said, let's get
(08:22):
back to what we doing, what we love to do, which is betting on
sports breaking down games from a data-driven sharp contrain
perspective. So without further ado, 3 pack
and MLB, let's try to go 2 and 1eke out a winning day.
So first one on the board for me.
I want to go to a relatively early match up. 6:45 PM Eastern
Time, Seattle Mariners visiting the Philadelphia Phillies now
(08:45):
setting the stage for this one. The Phills are 72 and 53.
They took last night's interleague series opener 12 to
seven, came through as a -115 home favorite pitching match up
for tonight. In the rematch, we got the
Mariners who are 68 and 58 goingwith the righty Bryce Miller.
He's 2 and 55.75.73 ERA fills meanwhile are going to go with
(09:06):
the lefty Christopher Sanchez. He's 11 and four with a 2.45
ERA. So what are you sitting across
the market here? Well, I hope you read the sharp
report for visa.com that are right.
Or maybe you follow the all systems go best bet picks from
the Juice Real app for $4.99 a week.
But this game opened Philly -165at home Seattle around a + 140
(09:26):
Rd. dog. And at the time I jumped on the
Phillies because they got steamed up -165 all the way up
to -185 So I'm like man, 20 centsteam move, let's go.
Then I as I'm writing the sharp report, Philly gets steamed up
all the way to -200 some shops -2 O 5 even -210 So you got to
(09:47):
look at it one of two ways. 1 the price is getting more
expensive, but #2 it's getting more expensive for a reason
because wise guys continue to bet Philadelphia.
So I'm on the Phillies here again.
I got a -184 if you want to ridewith me now around -200 -, 205
But if you look at the splits atCirco, they look really good on
the Phillies. 71% of money line bets, 99% of money line dollars.
(10:10):
Just a huge low bets, higher dollar split in favor of the
Phills at home. Now we get to our system
matches, interleague home favorites in the second game of
a series after winning the firstgame.
They're 45 and 2465 percent, 7% ROI this year.
The Phillies, by the way, 42 and15, a 74% win rate, 15% ROI when
(10:32):
they're a favorite, getting linemovement in their directions
when they're expected to win andthe markets moving them and
become more of a favorite. They are.
They're even better. Now Philly would have that
interleague favorite value, lackof familiarity typically
benefits quote UN quote the better team.
And then also Phillies in the spot will be a correlative
betting favorite low total. So we have in the situation a -,
(10:54):
200 favorite now with a low total of 8 fair amount of
expected runs scored more likelyto come from again, quote UN
quote that better team. Now I want to back Sanchez.
If you've never seen this guy pitch, he is a very tall, wiry
guy, but he's throwing the ball great this year, especially in
the month of August, he has a 1.8 O ERA and three August
starts. He's given up 1 earned run or
less and eight of his last ten starts.
(11:17):
He's 5 and O with a 2.33 ERA at home.
And meanwhile he'll be going up against Bryce Miller and Bryce
Miller, number one he's getting,he just got activated off the
injured list. He hasn't started since June
6th. Hopefully he'll be rusty, but
also on the road this year he's only one and three with a 6.38
ERA. Phillies, meanwhile, really good
home team, 38 and 21 Mariners 31and 33 on the road and Phillies
(11:41):
just got an influx to their lineup.
They just got Alec Boneback, whoI think went yard last night,
but in the spot guys, big steam toward Philly.
Maybe you read the sharp report or jumped on Philly with the
Juice Reel. All systems go.
Best bet. That was posted earlier today.
I got Philly -184 again, if you're playing it with me now,
you're looking at around -200 -,2 O 5 at FanDuel.
(12:03):
And oh, by the way, Robo Jackson, our friend, the hardest
work and Botta Juice Reel, he has this as a best bet.
So that's good too, that he's also in the Phillies.
Next game up, 7:10 PM Eastern Time, first pitch, the Baltimore
Orioles visiting the Boston Red Sox.
Now the Orioles who are 58 and 67 on the year, they took last
night's series opener six to three, came through as a plus
(12:26):
one O 5 row dog. For tonight's matchup, the
Orioles are going to go with theready Tomo Yuki Sugano.
He's 10 and five, 4.13 ERA. Meanwhile, the Sox who are 68
and 58, they're going to go withthe fellow ready Walker Bueller.
He's seven and seven with a 5.43ERA.
So what are you sitting across the market here?
Well, this game opened. Red Sox listed around 8 -, 125
(12:49):
-, 130 Home favorite Baltimore round A + 110 Rd. dog when you
see nothing but steam in favor of the Red Sox.
Red Sox have now gotten steamed up to around -140 -, 145.
I jumped on the Red Sox -140 at Caesars.
So that was good to see. And again, get trying to get the
best price as always. But if you look at the splits,
(13:11):
aside from the move on the Red Sox, Red Sox are getting 64% of
money line bets, 77% of money line dollars.
At Circa, they are getting 56% of bets, 98% of money line
dollars. So both DraftKings and Circa
showing a really good low bets, higher dollar split in favor of
the Red Sox. Red Sox by the way, are 16 and
(13:32):
576 percent, 2527% ROI at home since July 1st.
That makes them the second best home team in baseball since that
time frame. Red Sox also hopefully we'll get
to Sugano tonight because their bats couldn't really do anything
against Rodgers last night. But the Red Sox do have the
better offense overall, hitting two 53629 runs scored.
(13:54):
Baltimore hitting two 41543 runsscored.
Red Sox are also hitting 262 at Fenway.
That's the 6th best home battingaverage in baseball.
Orioles meanwhile only hitting 229 on the road.
That ranks 27th. Now I know Walker Bueller, to me
as a Red Sox fan, he's kind of in a disappointment.
Again, CRA is basically 5 1/2, but he has pitched a little bit
(14:16):
better recently. He's given up 3 earned runs or
less than six of his last seven starts.
And at home he's three and two with a 4.35 ERA on the road,
four and five with a 6.46 ERA. So hopefully being at home is a
benefit to Bueller tonight. Red Sox do have the better
bullpen. They have a team ERA of 3.5 O.
That's the third best in baseball.
(14:37):
Baltimore has an ERA of 4.721 ofthe worst in baseball.
And then just classic home Rd. splits.
Orioles 28 and 37 on the road. Red Sox 41 and 24 at home.
So we got some movement toward the Red Sox in a bounce back
spot after losing last night. Really good bat splits,
especially at Circa. I'm back.
I'm back in the Sox at Fenway, where they've been very, very
(14:58):
good all year and especially last couple months.
I got the Red Sox -140 at Caesar's again.
Shop around. You have some books as high as
-145 last bite of the night. Anyone want to stay up late with
me? I believe this game is on MLB
Network if you want to watch it.But let's look at the Cleveland
Guardians visiting the Arizona Diamondbacks 9:40 PM Eastern
(15:18):
Time. First pitch now going into it,
The Guardians are 64 and 60 on the year.
They won last night's interleague series opener. 3 to
one came through as a + 100 row dog.
For tonight's rematch, the Guardians are going to go with
the ready Tanner Bybee nine and nine 4.54 ERA.
Meanwhile, the snakes who are 60and 66, they're sending out the
lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, five and seven 5.4 O ERA.
(15:42):
So what are you sitting across the market for this interleague
matchup? Well, the snakes open this one
around a -, 115 home favorite Cleveland around A+.
Sorry, a -, 1 O five row dog. And what's normal to me is that
and really this is the big part of the cap for me.
The public is on Cleveland. They have the better record.
They're above 500, Arizona's below 500 and they won last
(16:03):
night. And yet they're a dog here.
So public says take the trendy dog.
The wrong team is favored. However, even though you're
getting nearly 60% of money linetickets on Cleveland, this line
hasn't fallen back down toward apick em.
It's actually gone further up toward Arizona.
Arizona has gone from -115 up toaround -125.
(16:24):
I jumped on the D backs at -118 at FanDuel, so you might be able
to still get that number at thispoint, but a lot of books are up
to -125. But aside from a fade the trendy
dog reverse line move on the snakes, we've got a lot of
systems on Arizona short home favorites -140 or less with a
sub 500 record playing an opponent with an above 500
(16:45):
record. So kind of the buy low, sell
high fishy play. That system is 52 and 3957
percent, 4% ROI this year, sweetspot home favorites -125 to -140
playing an opponent who made theplayoffs the previous year.
Again, another kind of buy low system that is 62 and 41 this
season, 60 percent, 6% ROI. Snakes would have that
(17:08):
interleague favorite value. So lack of familiarity
benefiting, quote UN quote. The team that's expected to win
and they do have the better offense.
Now I know they traded Naylor and Eugenio Suarez, but on the
year they're hitting two 5000 and 76 home runs, 619 runs
scored. Cleveland, meanwhile, hitting
two 27131 homers, 491 runs scored.
(17:28):
And believe it or not, I want toback Rodriguez over Bybee.
Bybee in his three August starts, ERA of 5.74, he's given
up ten runs and 15.2 innings pitched.
And at home he's been good 3.19 ERA on the road 5.59.
Meanwhile, E Rod used to pitch for the Red Sox.
Overall he's five and seven 5.4 O ERA.
(17:50):
But he has pitched better the month of August, 4.15 ERA and
three starts and Arizona is 3 and O in his last three starts.
Lastly, we do have Cleveland going up against a lefty in the
rod. They're only hitting 225 against
lefties this year. That's 27th in baseball.
So Publix on Cleveland, but the lines going to Arizona.
I'm back in Arizona here guys, give me the snakes.
(18:12):
I got a -, 118 at FanDuel. And shop around.
Some books, most books as high as -125 So that about does it
for episode 339 of the All Systems Go sports betting
podcast powered by rhythm. This is the part of the pod, of
course, where we wrap things up.And I start first by saying
thank you. Thank you for taking the time
out of your day, out of your busy lives to pull up a chair to
(18:34):
the virtual bar and sweat some sharp data-driven breakdowns in
me each day. Again, we've been grinding
through the dog days of summer, but late at the end of the
tunnel is football season about to take place here?
But as always, guys, if you do enjoy this pod, could you please
give it a five star review on Spotify or iTunes?
If you'd like to click the follow button or leave a nice
comment under the review sectionor recommend the pod to a
(18:56):
friend, I would also very much appreciate that.
Next, if you enjoy the style of betting breakdown, data-driven,
sharp contrarian betting. Will every sharp contrarian play
win? No, because betting is hard.
It's unpredictable. But if we know, if we place
ourself on against the the public with the house, with the
pros long term, that's really the forest amongst the trees
(19:17):
marathon, not a Sprint attitude and philosophy that we take.
So if you do want to learn more about data-driven betting, maybe
you've kind of learned to reallyfocus on line movement or bat
splits or system matches. You've seen some some positive
results here and you're betting games that you know your old
self that just bet on gut instinct and bias would never
have played. Now you're cashing tickets by
(19:38):
focusing on numbers and not yourown bias.
Well, if you'd like to learn more about data-driven betting,
I have two books that I'd love for you to purchase.
Go to Amazon.com, type in the NFL Sharp betting playbook.
It's now about a week old, a little more than a week old, but
we're still #1 in new releases. Please continue to send me a
photo if you've purchased the book, I'll retweet it.
(19:58):
And if you'd like to give it a five star review and a nice
little little review comments, afew comments on the Amazon page.
I'd very much appreciate that. I've also written a book called
the The Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
So if you're new to sports betting or you know someone
who's trying to break into betting, doesn't really have a
philosophy and doesn't even knowhow the game is played, that
book is really great for for newbetters and even kind of quote
(20:20):
UN quote intermediate betters aswell.
So buy a copy of the NFL Sharp betting playbook, buy a copy of
the everything guide to sports betting.
And you know what you should do?You should bring them a sports
book. I'll sign them for you.
I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale and we'll sweat some
baseball games together tonight.Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
and Juice Reel yet? Well, if you haven't, now is the
time. Rhythm fantastic for their AI
(20:43):
backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
Of course we do have MLB and WNBA live right now, but we do
have college football live in the Rhythm app.
So you can check out what Rhythmhas to say for Iowa State, K
State or Stanford, Hawaii. And we will have of course NFL
Week 1 popping up shortly and then Juice Reel.
Juice Reel is a great app for a variety of reasons.
(21:04):
I like it for a couple things. One is getting the dollar and
bets breakdowns for everyone whohas synced up their sports books
and place bets. You can get the sharp mush
indicators. The arbitrage plays the shop for
the best line futures, the Robo Jackson AI driven best bet picks
each day, but also bearing the lead here a bit if you want to
support Rhythm or sorry, if you want to support both Juice Reel
(21:28):
and myself. If I can be a little selfish
here, this pod is free. If you would like to sign up to
get the official all systems go best bet picks on the Juice Reel
page for $4.99 a week, you will get for example, today you would
have gotten Philly -184 instead of -200 So again, I consider it
tipping your your podcast host through getting those $4.99 a
(21:49):
week plays. So sign up for Rhythm, sign up
for Juice Reel, give them a fivestar view in the App Store.
You'll be off and running next. Do you have a live odds page?
Well, if you don't, you need one.
If you're day driven better. If you're just kind of a better
in general, you might have a different approach to betting.
That's OK too. But I would pretty much imagine
you got to know where's the market moving?
What are the line open at? What is it currently?
(22:11):
How is it moved in between? Pull up the line history,
identify easily. Teams get lit up in red when
they're getting steamed and the market is changing.
You know the Chiefs are going -21/2 to -3 the whole odds logic.
Live odds page lights up as the market is moving and you can
jump on a book that is slow to adjust.
But the odds logic live odds page, to me, it's the best
around. It's the best overall value in
(22:33):
terms of the price as well. So if you haven't given a shot
yet, I think now is the time to do it.
It's got all sports included, all the major sports books to
track including like Pinnacle and Chris and Bookmaker Circle,
all the big ones that move first.
But if you want to give it a shot I have a promo link for
you. It gives you a 7 day free trial
and 50% off your first month. Just go to oddslogic.com/josh
(22:55):
123. And of course as you mentioned
the pod at the beginning, I havepartnered with Splash Sports.
So enter the NFL survivor contest or the college football
pick em survivor contest. Are not survivor but the pick em
contest. 25 bucks entry. You can win up to 11,250 bucks.
You can get those links from my Twitter page at Josh under score
insights, but that about does itguys for episode 339 of the ASG
(23:19):
pod on a big Tuesday, as always,I'll leave you with two final
thoughts. One, whether I see you at the
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, of
course, the Nash National New Hampshire or the Encore Plainers
Park casino around me. We're out in the desert where
the true grinders get down, where Billy Walters sends his
number runners, where the lowestjuice possible is found at the
(23:41):
South Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
stadium swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
circle, you're going to walk up to me, Blue Jays and Marlins.
We're going to RIP those ticketsup, recycle them.
Don't trash them, recycle them, but at least show me a Reds
ticket. Nice.
Nice to see the Reds come through in Hollywood last night.
So as always, guys, first ones on me, next one's on you will
post about the book. So it's some sharp contrarian
(24:03):
plays all night long. In the end, 1 and 2, two and
one, three and OO and three after a good night, a bad night,
a fantastic night, a terrible night.
Remember, sports betting is hardlosing night.
Don't get down on yourself. There's a reason why betting is
difficult. You got to overcome the element
of unpredictability, human error, overcome these really
sharp lines, beat the juice again.
(24:24):
Anything can happen. That's why they call it
gambling. So don't get down on yourself
when you're struggling, but alsowhen things are going well and
you go 5 and O on Friday night or three and O Saturday, or it
was actually an O and three for me on Sunday, things are going
well. Don't get cocky, don't get
arrogant. Don't assume it's easy and start
to double and triple down. Discipline, bankroll management.
Stick with it Whenever as good as we think when we're hot,
whenever as bad as we think whenwe're cold.
(24:46):
So to me, guys, it's all about even keeled and grinding,
grinding, grinding, grinding long term so we can find games
that fit our model against the public, with the house, with the
pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
If we can do that long term, I'mconfident we're going to be
successful sports bettors. So have a fantastic Tuesday
night, everybody see if we can get some winners in the baseball
(25:07):
diamond and again, go sign up for the Splash Survivor and pick
em contest. And as always, guys, we'll be
right back at it tomorrow for episode 340 of the All Systems
Go sports Betting podcast powered by rhythm.
Good luck everybody and have a fantastic Tuesday night.
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